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Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)  
User currently offlineSLCPilot From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 580 posts, RR: 3
Posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3772 times:

81

Here's your chance to shine and show the world you "called it" way back in 2006! Your post must start with a number standing alone (like this post), and then your reason.

I think Airbus will slowly produce 25 A-380, and then cancel the program. They will promise the customers they will produce aircraft already "sold", but cancellations will reduce this number.

Hopefully this will be an interesting thread 10 years from now. Too bad we can't put $10 each into a pool  Wink.

SLCPilot


I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11612 posts, RR: 60
Reply 1, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3762 times:

Quoting SLCPilot (Thread starter):
I think Airbus will slowly produce 25 A-380, and then cancel the program. They will promise the customers they will produce aircraft already "sold", but cancellations will reduce this number.

In that case you completely are mad.

It would cost Airbus more to end the production and pay what would be massive repercussions to the airlines who have firm orders than it would to carry on production, even at a loss for the total orders they have so far.

I am saying the region of 400-500 after about ten years of production, to be exact lets say 461 aircraft.

Dan Smile



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineXjramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2460 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3732 times:

Hmm..i would say they will only produce about 30.

The world needs a quicker aircraft, not a greyhound that ruins airports.

Soon the world will realize it, and the quicker it does, the less this aircraft will be produced.

XJR



Look ma' no hands!
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3714 times:

221

Filler

Filler


User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3696 times:

Quoting SLCPilot (Thread starter):
Hopefully this will be an interesting thread 10 years from now.

121 total.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 5, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3693 times:

My guess is probably about 100 after some cancellations.

User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3680 times:

1-1000..final answer.. Smile

seriously though...probably >250 < 300 frames..



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3665 times:

I too am going to go 250-300 + a backlog.

I am willing to bet one crisp.


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3655 times:

Lets see , they have 159 orders so far till around 2012-2014 or so . I'd expect them to sell about 300-350 new ones over and above that which gets to a total of around 500-550 . Add another 50 or so to be on the safe side and i predict clse to 600 airframes till around 2023-2025 .

User currently offlineSuseJ772 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 814 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 3630 times:

272

I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I think the A380 will be a similar story to the MD11. Both are phenomenal planes, that have major advancements compared to their counterparts (i.e. MD-11 over DC-10 & A380 over 747). However, due to various different reasons (i.e. MD-11 eventually losing out to the 777 and A330 in cheaper maintenance cost of 2 engines vs. 3 engines, and the A380 not utilizing as much "new generation" technology such as the 787, etc...), I think both planes will go down as being great flying machines, just built with the wrong timing.

The project won't be a huge failure (as some on these forums claim ... *cough* thread starter), but it won't be the success I think Airbus, and some others in the industry projected it to be (just like the MD-11). There are my reasons, let the flaming begin.



Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
User currently offlineSLCPilot From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 580 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 3624 times:

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 10):
The project won't be a huge failure (as some on these forums claim ... *cough* thread starter),

81

Thread starter here  .

Just to make it interesting, I AM PLEDGING $100 TO THE PERSON THAT COMES CLOSEST TO THE ACTUAL NUMBER.

In the event of a tie, the money will be split. This isn't a joke, and I'll actually pay the money (although in the future $100 won't be what it is today). It should be enough for a fun night of beers and hangar flying.

Spread the word, make it an interesting thread, and let's celebrate it one way or the other when it's all said and done. BTW, I'd be equally happy if the number is 81 or 1081.

Cheers!

SLCPilot

PS> And no, you can't post, 1,2,3,4,......etc. One guess per screen name. You may, however, or additional airframes to make your guess the right one  Wink.

[Edited 2006-10-24 21:22:26]


I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 11, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 3602 times:

262

delivered as of 23:59Z on 24-Oct-2016. Based entirely on adrenalin.  Wink



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3500 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 3596 times:

293

filler

filler



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineSuseJ772 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 814 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 3584 times:

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 11):
Thread starter here .



Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 11):
BTW, I'd be equally happy if the number is 81 or 1081.

I am just giving you a hard time. I don't think any of us aviation enthusiasts really want to see a project fail. But you gotta admit, people at Airbus would think the project were a failure if only 81 A380s were sold.

P.S. I love the premise of this thread.



Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
User currently offlineEatmybologna From France, joined Apr 2005, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 3571 times:

I'm a little confused.

Are you looking for a number of produced A380s ten years from now or total number of Superjumbos made?

I'll wait to hear back from you before I respond, as I think they'll still be making them after 24th October, 2016.

Thanks,

E-M-B



Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
User currently offlineNitrohelper From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 469 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 3515 times:

By 2016? They should be in service by then!  flamed 
I place my bet at 380 total. I don't know how many CEOs it will take to get there?


User currently offlineSLCPilot From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 580 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 3504 times:

81

Number first, always. Total A-380 aircraft built and flown. To include prototype aircraft. No tricks, just a simple number.

And as I tried to communicate before, you may order additional aircraft so the total comes up to your predicted number.

Try and spread the word, this should be a more interesting thread!

SLCPilot



I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
User currently offlineWoosie From United States of America, joined May 2006, 115 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 3500 times:

210

Sounds good. I think some of the firm orders will cancel and Airbus will pickup orders through its lifetime.


User currently offlineBoeingOnFinal From Norway, joined Apr 2006, 476 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 3490 times:

I think Airbus will stick with the program all the way. They know they have to sell alot of frames to even out, economics wise. And I think they will stick it out.

So 480 frames for me. Man will there be a long time before I get to see if I win :p



norwegianpilot.blogspot.com
User currently offlineEatmybologna From France, joined Apr 2005, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 3465 times:

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 16):
And as I tried to communicate before

How about communicating to my question (reply 14)  Smile

Thanks,

E-M-B



Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
User currently offlineSLCPilot From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 580 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 3452 times:

81

Eatmybologna, I thought I did. The number is to be the total A-380 flying aircraft ever produced. This number should include Prototype and any other versions produced (i.e. A-380F, A-380-800, A-380-900 etc.). The goal is not to evade or trick trick anybody. To be fair, it seems reasonable that only guesses made within six months from today's date be considered.

Spread the word! An EASY $100 ! !

Cheers!

SLCPilot



I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
User currently offlineEatmybologna From France, joined Apr 2005, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 3450 times:

275 total

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 20):
The number is to be the total A-380 flying aircraft ever produced.

O.K., but then why are some posters writing things like "By 2016 they'll produce..." or "delivered as of 23:59Z on 24-Oct-2016." ?

Cheers,  Smile

E-M-B



Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 22, posted (7 years 9 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3404 times:

1000

by 2030. That's an average 2.85 aircraft per month - a little pessimistic maybe. There's further potential in the desgin, it will get stretched, get new engines twice, and a new CFRP wing using 350XWB design philosophy.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3377 times:

Well lets see

- Market outlooks of Boeing, GE, Airbus & RR foresee nearly trippling of air traffic is the next 20 years & a doubling of # aircraft

- Assuming a service live of 100k hrs, 800 747-400 have to be replaced in that period

- Boeing been enlarging its VLA design and has gradually been increasing its vla´s market forecast approaching 1000 aircraft now, a few more upward adjustments ->1500?

- In the last 5 years the market has seen a clear preference for A380 passenger aircraft over q series of new 747 designs

- recent orders after the A380 entered the flight test program seem to confirm the A380 is able to do what it is supposed to do


- continued high oil prices will force airlines to look for scale & low CASM aircraft.

- 80% of current air traffic (psk) is between hubs

- the world population seems to continue to concentrate around economic centers all over the world.

- the A380-800 is the first of a family that will develop in the next 25 with versions offering more capasity, range or both. After the -F Airbus indicates the -800R and -900 are on the line, many of it´s design requirements already included in the current -800

- the 747, A300, 767, D10/M11 and other twin aisles have all been inproduction for more then 25 yrs, I see no reason why the A380 should not

All this leads me to believe Airbus will produce over 800 A380s of various versions over the next 25-40 years.


User currently offlineFutureUApilot From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1365 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3375 times:

333

Good even number...  Wink
-Sam



The Pilot is the highest form of life on Earth!
25 Post contains images David L : Hmm... I see you included me in your list in another thread. I'll tell you right here and now I know nothing of aircraft production and its economics
26 Post contains images Bwohlgemuth : Airframes? 419 Profitable? Yeah, but we're talking less than three billion over its lifetime Revs? I think they will come out with a -200 series, they
27 JayinKitsap : I would expect in the mid 300's to be made. For symbolism I say 350 produced, to go along with that concept plane that has new versions and a later EI
28 Post contains links BoomBoom : The Boyd Group is now forecasting 350 or less. http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm
29 UA777300ER : 450 Once the first planes are operational and production has reached full capacity, I expect more orders coming in. Greetz Tom
30 SLCPilot : 81 Please keep to the format, number, then your guess, then your reason. This is thread for discussion as well, just always start with your number. Al
31 Bushpilot : 240. Production delays are killing Airbus on this one. I think we are on the verge on changing the outlook we take on building aircraft for the future
32 Ncfc99 : 843 dunno why. just a number I choose
33 Da man : 370 There will be an eventual demand for the aircraft, even though it won't be the most technologically advanced, but the need for this level of mass
34 Aerosol : 450 - or Break even. That includes derrivatives. It will not sell as well as the 747-400. Why - because there are more models offered now than back th
35 Btriple7 : Seriously, by the time we actually know how many A380s will have been produced, $100 will be worth a lot less than it is today. That is unless the A3
36 TAN FLYR : My guess total of all types..224. By 2016 100 frames. As we all cussed and discussed in thread last summer, and have numerous times since, there are v
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