ScrubbsYWG From Canada, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1495 posts, RR: 0 Posted (7 years 8 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 4059 times:
I realize this is probably way premature, but i'd be interested in hearing opinions. Will the 787 in all its varients outsell the 737 in all its varients?
I am fairly new to the whole civil aviation thing, and have been at anet for less than a year, but i think i have gained quite a bit of knowledge in that time. Personally, i think it would be tough for the 787 to reach the point the 737 is at right now(5000 delivered, 7000 orders). But, you can't discount the fact that the 787 has over 600 orders even before roll out, never mind first flight or EIS.
Some reasons for me thinking it probably won't happen is that there is just a larger market for a smaller plane than a medium size wide body, especially europes domestic operations, and companies like southwest and ryanair using only 737s. These are obvious markets that the 787 makes no sense in. But are there enough markets and airlines where high numbers of 787s would be very beneficial? This can also be impacted by the A350, as it is almost the same type of new gen aircraft. But alas, boeing has 5 year lead on them. Is my logic correct that there is a much larger market for a plane the size of the 737 over the 787?
so my question to you is, can the 787 eclipse the 737 at some point far down the road, or will it be a large initial ordering frenzee for everyone who thinks they need one, and then small, but consistent orders to keep the line going.
Rampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3177 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3980 times:
Seems you haven't had any replies yet, so I'll take a stab. You answer your own question, Scrubbs, "that there is just a larger market for a smaller plane than a medium size wide body". You can probably find something similar, with minor differences, on Airbus's projections, but here's how Boeing interprets the future market:
Note that there may be more money made in selling twin-aisle widebodies, there are far more single-aisle planes to be sold. Almost 3 times as many.
There will be inceases in the need for more airplanes (barring a collapse due to fuel prices or other reasons), but also expect a similar increase in single-aisle aircraft, and whatever replaces the 737 and A32x will still sell 3 times as many. The only way I could see Boeing selling as many 787 as they have 737 family is if the demand for air travel increases dramatically such that capacity will simply require more airplanes of that size over 20 years or so (and assuming a 787 is still a 787). I don't think that will happen. 7000 is a lot of planes! Instead, if the projections bear out, there are ~6300 orders to be split between the 787, 777, A330, and A350. Nowhere close to reaching 737 levels.
Early 787 sales have been impressive. Imagine how hot a replacement for the 737 will be!
Gunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3510 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3920 times:
Not a chance. For one thing, the 737 sales are a bit misleading since those totals span three families of aircraft that have major differences between them. For another, the narrowbody market has always been bigger than the widebody market. I might be able to see the 787 hitting 2,000-2,500 orders over the life of the program, but no more. A lot hinges on what happens with the A350 and the 777.
CruzinAltitude From United States of America, joined May 2004, 415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3894 times:
The 737 experainced some amazing evolutions which kept it a viable purchase for airlines 40 + years after introduction. However, I think evolution of technology is another factor that would prevent the 787 from ever coming even close to matching the 737's sales numbers.
Look at the evolution of the computer. It has evolved at an exponential rate. The difference between computer capabilities 5 years ago to today are extreme. The difference between computers 15 years ago is almost off the charts, and if we go further than 30 years ago it becomes almost hard to comprehend.
I know aviation technology has evolved much less dramatically over a longer period of time. I imagine a lot of that has to do with the fact that Airliners are expensive products to design and build, so having a short life cycle is impractical. However, it make sense to me that the technology available today for the building of the 787 will in many ways be outdated much sooner than the 737 experianced. In my opinion, when the 787 gets a little long in the tooth the technology would warrent an outright replacement rather than a 787NG. Thats just my