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777NG Or New Airplane?  
User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2671 posts, RR: 2
Posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4120 times:

Do you think boeing should produce a new generation of 777, or create a whole new design?
I think they should create a whole new a/c, because I am afraid a 777NG would be a fiasco ( a la A350(non-XWB)).

what are your thoughts?


אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
7 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJwenting From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10213 posts, RR: 18
Reply 1, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4102 times:

The A350 was a disaster because there was no market for it.
An upgraded 777 would fit into the replacement market for old 777s and A340s that's going to open in a few years (probably). Different timelines, different market segments.



I wish I were flying
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7058 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4089 times:

An all new 777 would only make sense if they go for a composite fuselage and the efforts of building the 777 fuselage completely out of composite materials would be an all new aircraft so I don´t think it will be a 777NG but an all new aircraft.


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12403 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4058 times:
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Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):
An upgraded 777 would fit into the replacement market for old 777s and A340s that's going to open in a few years (probably). Different timelines, different market segments.

But it would very likely suffer the same fate as the original A350. A "warmed-over" 777 will suffer from being up against a significantly better plane (just as the original A350 was). To make a 777NG competitive with the A350XWB would require so much investment that Boeing might as well build an all-new plane.

Boeing has a tough choice to make in the next few months and years
- develop the 787 further with -10, -11 and HGW variants, and leave the 748i to battle against the A380
- do just a simple -10 stretch and spend a huge amount of money developing Y3 in the 350-450 segment (which many argue is not a big enough market to support the investment required.

IMHO, if Boeing did introduce a 777NG, it would only be a stopgap measure and would glean some sales from loyal Boeing customers who for some reason didn't want to buy A350s. It would also buy them some time to decide what to do about Y3.

If it was my decision, I'd take the first option. Develop the 787 to a range of aircraft up to the size of the 773ER (maybe slightly smaller). A single family (although there would be some significant differences between the bottom and top-end models) would represent a significantly lower investment for Boeing than 787 and Y3 (it would also save any further investment in the 777 family).



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4026 times:



Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):
An upgraded 777 would fit into the replacement market for old 777s and A340s that's going to open in a few years (probably). Different timelines, different market segments.

If they got it out quick. Otherwise the A350 and 787 will do that, and it's already started.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 3992 times:



Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):
The A350 was a disaster because there was no market for it

There wasn't?

The original A350 was a head-on competitor to the 787 and a perfect replacement for the highly successful A330, 2 planes which have sold hundred of copies this year alone, yet you come to tell us there was no market for it???

Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):
An upgraded 777 would fit into the replacement market for old 777s and A340s that's going to open in a few years (probably).

A 777NG will be in the same market segment as the A350XWB, but contrary to the Airbus, the 777NG will not be all new and thus likely conquer the smallest of the 2 market shares. In short, it will be caught in very much the same position as the original A350 was vs the all new 787. Interesting to see if Boeing can live with economics which ultimately were unacceptable to Airbus and their original A350 and made them to ditch the A350 and go for the all new A350XWB.

As to the question of this thread itself:
I think Boeing did not expect Airbus to commit to what has now become the A350XWB but rather stick to their original A350, and as such they expected to be able to keep their 777 as it is for at least 2 decades more, yet because of Airbus last minute course reversal, they now have a relatively imminent problem in the upper segment of their product offering: the 748i is only just launched and already dead on arrival as it is caught in between the A350-1000 and the A380-800, the 77W will be wiped away by the A350-1000 between now and 5 years (on the sales front) and the 772(ER) has had its best days also against the A350.
In short, every Boeing product above the 787-9 is in need of a serious redo if they want to stay of any significance in this segment on the long term.

The 787 however is a bit too small to be used as platform for a replacement for all the above Boeing models which are on the way out, except maybe for the 772ER, yet IF Boeing decides to go ahead and launch the 787-10 (as replacement for the smaller 777s) they effectively give up their long lasting stronghold of all planes bigger than that for a very long time, since I just can't see them launch an all new Y3 before Y1.

An updated 777 and the associated much smaller market share associated with it (30%) might then be all that is possible for Boeing between 5 and 15 years from now in the segment above the 787-10.

My bet is that Boeing will:
-) launch the 787-10 as an improved version of what they first had in mind (so not a simple stretch) to protect the low end of the upper market segment which they unexpectedly will have to hand over to Airbus.
-) update the 77W to the best of their abilities and hope it will succeed in holding on to 30% of the market share based on price and commonality (something which is questionable given the HUGE CASM improvements the A350 will come with).
-) wonder if they shouldn't have made the 787 a tad larger indeed to make it a more performant and capable all round WB platform, even if it would have meant forgetting all about the -3 from the start.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5410 posts, RR: 30
Reply 6, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3794 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
But it would very likely suffer the same fate as the original A350. A "warmed-over" 777 will suffer from being up against a significantly better plane (just as the original A350 was). To make a 777NG competitive with the A350XWB would require so much investment that Boeing might as well build an all-new plane.

A major part of the problem the original 350 had was that it didn't have the performance or size that airlines wanted. The 777 has the size. If they can get the performance, (most of the 350's advantage is in the engines, as far as I know), and can offer it for a good price, why wouldn't they do it?

Airlines don't seem to care all that much about new tech except in how it relates to price and performance.

By the way, does anyone actually have any real data, (as in officially released by Airbus, Boeing and/or airlines), about how huge the performance difference will be between the 777 and 350? If the differences aren't mainly because of the engines, what is/are the source(s) of the efficiency differences between the planes?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 5):
An updated 777 and the associated much smaller market share associated with it (30%) might then be all that is possible for Boeing between 5 and 15 years from now in the segment above the 787-10.

I suspect it may be a bit premature to sound the death knell of Boeing in that market quite yet, since it will be at least another 5 years, at the earliest, before Airbus can get any of their 350's flying, much less in the paws of their customers.

Considering Boeing, by that time, will have over 5 years of real world flight/research/manufacturing data with the 787/genX technology, (and to mention the billions of dollars of profit the plane will have netted for Boeing by then which they can freely spend on more research), I really don't see them falling over and playing dead, much the same way Airbus seems to have bounced back after the first effort with the 350.



What the...?
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 7, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3582 times:
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It would be best for Boeing to develop a new airplane, however if Boeing can improve the 777 for a reasonable (under $1 billion) cost, it could help extend sales until the new airplane is ready.

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