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Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?  
User currently offlineCragley From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 426 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 7509 times:

With all the merger talks of late, and the rising price of Oil, which airlines will struggle or fail this year?

Do you think that LCC might start feeling the pinch a little more?


And on the flipside, which airlines will continue to grow and expand.


I'm thinking it's going to be a good year for 9W and CA.


Thoughts?

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOsprey88 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 330 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 7475 times:

Many of the 50 seat regional airlines, such as MQ, OO, XJ, XE, and YV, will start to struggle with the high oil prices and probably start showing less and less profit.


"Reading departure signs in some big airports reminds me of the places I've been"
User currently offlineBok269 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 2105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 7461 times:

Mesa's got a tough year ahead. This could also be ExpressJet's make or break time.


"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
User currently offlineD328 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 302 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 7320 times:

Southwest and Skybus are two I think are gonna feel it.
WN hedge's aren't as cheap in the past, maybe they'll finally feel what the legacy's are feeling. And Skybus, well I don't even know what to say about that airline.


User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 7287 times:

i think if US cant get this HP merger done they will be in a little bit of trouble


yep.
User currently offlineN104UA From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 897 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6921 times:

I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp and converting all the A320's to regular configuration


"Learn the rules, so you know how to break them properly." -H.H. The Dalai Lama
User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6850 times:



Quoting N104UA (Reply 5):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp and converting all the A320's to regular configuration

Yes, PLEASE get rid of TED! It was a horrible idea from the beginning, however, UA could do what DL did with Song, and apply it to some parts of the fleet (and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).


User currently offlineMOBflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1209 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6841 times:



Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).

And completely get rid of first class on EVERY flight?????


User currently offlineManchesterMAN From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 1207 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6818 times:

I fear silverjet might have problems staying afloat this year. My company uses them quite a lot LTN-DXB and on the last 5 trips my colleagues have taken since the new year I've had loads reported at no more than 40 on board and as low as 20. Even more worrying is that this is popular time of year to visit DXB for both business and leisure. Add to this their well known financial issues and I think they will struggle. Hope I'm wrong though as they have a nice little operation, I just think the 757 would have suited them better.


Flown: A300,A319,A320,A321,A330,A340.A380,717,727,737,747,757,767,777,DC9,DC10,MD11,MD80,F100,F50,ERJ,E190,CRJ,BAe146,Da
User currently offlineRampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3067 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6798 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
i think if US cant get this HP merger done they will be in a little bit of trouble

You mean, if HP can get this US merger done...

-Rampart


User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 295 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6767 times:

I think we will see many of the smaller regionals begin to mold into the larger ones similar to skyways/skywest.
I dont realy know WHEN the legacy carriers will merge but i do believe it is only a question of when and it may not be this year.
If American Majors all had to merge with another major airline, here is how I think it would go...

1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

SA)">AA/DL would compete great with UAL/CO bar the MDs SA)">AA/DL would have to replace

2. United & Continental (also similar fleets, no md's, mostly boeings xcept ual 320/319, similar long hual fleets; Houston, Chicago, Newark, SF, ...)

3. SA)">NW/USair (airbus fleets, Northern hubs, Twin cities, Philly, Memphis....)

Airlines 1 and 2 would be the greatest competitors to each other as SA)">AA and SA)">CO have exceptional SA coverage. ALL airlines have connections to major EU hubs and work well with their alliance partners however I would think Star Alliance would be for airline #2 and probably one world for #1.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6741 times:



Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
Yes, PLEASE get rid of TED! It was a horrible idea from the beginning, however, UA could do what DL did with Song, and apply it to some parts of the fleet (and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).

No, UA can't do what Delta did. Exactly what does TED have to offer that United doesn't?

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):
1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 295 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6685 times:



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 11):
U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.

what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.


User currently offlineJJMNGR From Brazil, joined May 2004, 1018 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6660 times:

VARIGLOG. The company is already be in the middle of a dispute and fight between Brazilian stake holders and Matlin Peterson Group....some B75F were arrested and thigs are not easy there....my bet is on their shoulders.

User currently offlineJetdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6647 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):

The merger is technically complete. It is one airline. Now, do they have contract issues? Yep, but so do many more including AA.

At this point in time US, running under two contracts for Pilots and two for FAs is actually handling it very well, keeping the operations seperate. Will it be easier to operate when all the contracts are settled? You bet, but the East Pilots need to do a lot of growing up.


User currently offlineCyberflyer From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 44 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6647 times:

Skybus is DOA. They won't make it past June. Take that to the bank. No pun intended.

User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6646 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US?

Honestly, I don't want to see any for the next 2-3 years at least. Although I think the regional airline business needs a vast overhaul. Now, the issue with route overlap isn't simply scheduling and fleet usage. IT's the problem of possible monopolies in certain markets and if the Feds and local government will let it/want it to fly. As far as mergers happening now, I personally think it has a lot to do with trying to get things done under the current administration. Not saying the next won't let it happen. But the transition will cause a delay.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently onlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4264 posts, RR: 34
Reply 17, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6511 times:

So far mainly US based reactions
I agree that Skybus can fail, but want to add even Virgin America and Frontier.
In Europe, I worry about Volare, Sky-Europe and Vueling. The LCC market seems a bit saturated and their direct competitors like Wizzair seem to do better.
In India there are one or two carriers too many. GoAir might be the first one to go, and Air Deccan will only survive as vehicle for Kingfisher to start international flights.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineFlyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 6459 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.

I would imagine seeing a few mergers, though not necessarily based on fleet similarity.

I could see, DL and NW merging, they already seem to be being pushed together by AF. Maybe CO and AL merging as well, they have very similar fleets and the routes they fly hardly overlap at all. B6 might merge well with spirit or F9 or maybe both, they have similar fleets and no duel hubs. I think it would be interesting if Air Tran and Southwest merged (though I dont think it would happen).

I am sure that UA and AA would want to pair up with someone, get at least a piece of the pie, but I dont really see any good matches for either of them. I am also sure that US would want to partner up with someone, but I dont know whom.



"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 19, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 6410 times:



Quoting Flyorski (Reply 18):
they already seem to be being pushed together by AF

I read today that they have officially endorsed the deal and would also move to help fund such a merger...



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineNycbjr From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 6247 times:



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 19):

Quoting Flyorski (Reply 18):
they already seem to be being pushed together by AF

I read today that they have officially endorsed the deal and would also move to help fund such a merger...

wow thats a wrinkle I never thought of.. and could be the tipping point to this happening and a positive (if still messy) outcome of any merger..

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/bus...s/2008/01/17/deltafrance_0117.html


User currently offlineRdwootty From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2005, 901 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 5868 times:

My choice is FlyGlobespan who may fail in the high season leaving many passengers stranded.... They did not do themselves any favours last summer. We shall see what the booking patern is. their fares seem higher than the competition and as we all know price is the king

User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 5815 times:



Quoting Rampart (Reply 9):
You mean, if HP can get this US merger done...

true my bad

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):

so they would make a great airline because they have all Boeing fleets?

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 11):
U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.

i'm pretty sure it is because of the all boeing fleets

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.

UA/CO
DL/UA
DL/NW
CO/NW
DL/B6
DL/AS
CO/AS
AA/AS



yep.
User currently offlineJetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2648 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 5714 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR



Quoting D328 (Reply 3):
Southwest and Skybus are two I think are gonna feel it.

Southwest not as much as Skybus. I read in Airliners magazine that they feel really good about the upcoming year and think it will be a good one. Don't think so!

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp

Absolutely!

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):
1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

SA)">AA/DL would compete great with UAL/CO bar the MDs SA)">AA/DL would have to replace

2. United & Continental (also similar fleets, no md's, mostly boeings xcept ual 320/319, similar long hual fleets; Houston, Chicago, Newark, SF, ...)

3. SA)">NW/USair (airbus fleets, Northern hubs, Twin cities, Philly, Memphis....)

These are interesting combinations. I have yet to hear American and Delta or United and Continental. Now I could see NW and DL, or Co and DL but not AA and DL. UA and CO I really can't see. US and NW I don't really think so but who knows this is an interesting industry!
Blue



You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 5628 times:



Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 23):
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp

Absolutely!

i didn't say that



yep.
25 Mah584jr : As far as the US legacies go, I see NW having the toughest year of the lot.
26 NWAESC : What makes you think that?
27 Ryan h : Here in Australia, I can see Tiger Airways struggling on their domestic routes. Many of their flights have been late and I can see an unfavourable rea
28 Post contains images StarAlliance38 : I don't think so. Why wouldn't airlines within alliances merge? NW--CO and UA--US? Then again, if US and NW merge, I would have a lot of miles US-19,
29 JetBlueAUS : Skybus, really. I think Virgin America will do well.
30 StarAlliance38 : US/HP merger is pretty much done, just paint the planes and done I heard US is planning to get the employees out of the unions and make a house "US A
31 Burnsie28 : Airlines like OO and XJ don't have to worry much since they don't do their own operations they are guaranteed to make money from the major legacy car
32 Ualcsr : VH, if they're not already out of business, and lots of the ones already mentioned here. Come back airline of the year----AZ.
33 Anetter123 : Southwest isn't going anywhere. They are HUGE in the US, they've got a great route/fare structure on certain markets, they have VERY loyal customers
34 ZWRampRat : I have my fingers crossed that YX does
35 NWASkyking : It may not be this year, but next year or the coming year will be tough on most LCC's. I think that most of the legacy's will do well, and continue to
36 Super80DFW : TedTunes! Oh wait, that is called Audio Programming on other United flights. I guess nothing.
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