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What If We Couldn't Fly Anymore? What Then?  
User currently onlineTugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5503 posts, RR: 8
Posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4630 times:

Well, we all know of the havoc being wrought across Europe right now (and internationally with flights destined for Europe), and this just from a simple eruption in Iceland. There is ongoing discussion of how long the eruption will go on and how it will effect things and what the options are to get transportation back up to speed to meet modern needs.

So what would happen if the eruption continued (or got worse) and significant amounts of ash continued to disrupt air travel in Europe. What if it happened elsewhere such that the problems impact a jet engine's ability to function. What would we do to replace or how would modify current transport modes to meet the new flight environment?

I am not wanting to get into environmental issues which I know could/would be an aspect of anything like this. Just the impacts for air travel as we use it now.

Tugg


I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4625 times:

You'd probably have to resort back to pistons, and even then who knows. Creating a hefty enough filter system for a piston plane would be a pain, but certainly easier to do than for say, a GE-90.

User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2071 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4606 times:

What if air travel were to become altogether impossible? Hypothetically speaking...

We'd manage, I suppose. Obviously international travel would be greatly reduced, with passenger ships used for transatlantic and transpacific connections.

The whole of Europe doesn't actually need air travel, with few exceptions (Ireland would be a problem). On the continent, trains could take most of it, and they'd be reasonably fast. Obviously high-speed service would be greatly expanded.

The business world would switch to virtual solutions, I imagine, with video conferencing, collaboration over the internet etc.

It'd be interesting how Europe-Asia connection would work. Construction of a huge high-speed railroad perhaps?

Snail-mail would be a lot slower, and completely fade out intercontinentally, in favour of e-mail.

We couldn't buy fresh exotic fruit anymore during the winter months, but nutrition should be no problem.

The world would be very different, but not necessarily worse off. After all, a world without air travel is not far in the past; the oldest generation today can still remember it.

[Edited 2010-04-16 13:38:38]


Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlinefca767 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2006, 1745 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4578 times:

Plus we could take the Bus to Australia from the UK http://www.oz-bus.com/

User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7517 posts, RR: 23
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4577 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
After all, a world without air travel is not far in the past; the oldest generation today can still remember it.

In the States, one can go more recent than that; immediately following of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, there was NO commercial air travel either within or to/from the U.S. for 3 days.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4555 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 4):

In the States, one can go more recent than that; immediately following of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, there was NO commercial air travel either within or to/from the U.S. for 3 days

I have a feeling that the situation may become much worse in the EU than what happened on September 11. On Sept 11, we knew that the skies were safe, at least mechanically, for airliners and aircraft to get back to the skies. In this instance, no one really knows at this point in time. I wonder if the airlines will ask their respective governments for bail outs?

UAL


User currently offlineIMissPiedmont From United States of America, joined May 2001, 6287 posts, RR: 34
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4539 times:

On an individual basis it wouldn't matter in the slightest. A few people would get cranky being unable to flit about at will but they could survive. The problem would be the total collapse of the world economy since there is no structure in place to replace the aircraft fleet.


Damn, this website is getting worse daily.
User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4530 times:

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
Well, we all know of the havoc being wrought across Europe right now (and internationally with flights destined for Europe), and this just from a simple eruption in Iceland. There is ongoing discussion of how long the eruption will go on and how it will effect things and what the options are to get transportation back up to speed to meet modern needs.

So what would happen if the eruption continued (or got worse) and significant amounts of ash continued to disrupt air travel in Europe. What if it happened elsewhere such that the problems impact a jet engine's ability to function. What would we do to replace or how would modify current transport modes to meet the new flight environment?

I am not wanting to get into environmental issues which I know could/would be an aspect of anything like this. Just the impacts for air travel as we use it now.

Tugg

Easy...

WE DRIVE!

We have an incredible system of highways and cars (for now anyway given some nut jobs are hell bent on abandoning them to urge people out of their cars and into a single point failure mass transit system).

We'd certainly be in a better position then we were with horse and buggy and we survived then.

So we take a 14 day vacation instead of 8 or 9. Big deal. Maybe things would slow down a little and we'd stop and look around vs. going full speed ahead into a brick wall.

[Edited 2010-04-16 14:06:21]

User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17063 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4530 times:

Quoting fca767 (Reply 3):
Plus we could take the Bus to Australia from the UK http://www.oz-bus.com/

I would never, ever do something like that. It is pure craziness.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4519 times:

Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 7):

So we take a 14 day vacation instead of 8 or 9. Big deal.

You and I both know this has much more impact on the world than simply people on vacation.


User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4519 times:

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 9):
You and I both know this has much more impact on the world than simply people on vacation.

So how did we survive before rail and air?

Like I said. Big deal.

We'd adapt. Its what we do best.


User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17063 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4480 times:

Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 10):
So how did we survive before rail and air?

Like I said. Big deal.

We'd adapt. Its what we do best.

Big deal? Of course it is. Do you know how much this would impact us.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4467 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 11):
Big deal? Of course it is. Do you know how much this would impact us.

Yes... As I said:

Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 7):
Maybe things would slow down a little and we'd stop and look around vs. going full speed ahead into a brick wall.


User currently offlineDesertJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 7773 posts, RR: 16
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4451 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 11):
Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 10):
So how did we survive before rail and air?

Like I said. Big deal.

We'd adapt. Its what we do best.

Big deal? Of course it is. Do you know how much this would impact us.

Yeah life was really great in pre-industrial times. You'd be lucky to leave your village, live off of subsistence farming, have a small number of manufactured good, pretty much make anything you need.

Sure we'd adapt, but don't expect your life to be even remotely close to what it is now. For better or for worse we depend heavily on the rapid movement of people and goods.



Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4443 times:

Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 10):
So how did we survive before rail and air?

Like I said. Big deal.

We'd adapt. Its what we do best.

If air travel were completely disrupted around the world, it would be havoc for years. Economies would fail, and we'd be thrown back into the stone age. I think you are minimizing how much of an impact air travel has on the global economy, and how many people's lives, both financially and physically, depend on air travel. Don't forget that military jets and fighters are also susceptible to the same flying conditions as airliners. Anything that flies and has an engine, that engine needs clean air.


User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4443 times:

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 13):
Yeah life was really great in pre-industrial times.

For many it was.


User currently offlinecws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4441 times:

Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 15):

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 13):
Yeah life was really great in pre-industrial times.

For many it was.

Please, do elaborate....



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently offlineDesertJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 7773 posts, RR: 16
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4436 times:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 16):
Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 15):

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 13):
Yeah life was really great in pre-industrial times.

For many it was.

Please, do elaborate....

Yeah, maybe we shouldn't feed the troll on this one.... though I am intrigued.



Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4431 times:

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 14):
Economies would fail

Yes, those who do not adapt would fail.

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 14):
we'd be thrown back into the stone age

No, we wouldn't.


User currently offlineJetsGo From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3082 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4412 times:

I honestly think we'd be in far more trouble if we permanently lost the internet as opposed to air travel.

Just my   

[Edited 2010-04-16 14:41:26]


Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4412 times:

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 17):
Yeah, maybe we shouldn't feed the troll on this one.... though I am intrigued.

JRDC930 with a bit o' valium I'd say.


User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4390 times:

Quoting JetsGo (Reply 19):
I honestly think we would be in far more trouble if we somehow permanently lost the internet as opposed to air travel

Yup.

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 20):
JRDC930 with a bit o' valium I'd say.

You act as though we'd suddenly lose all forms of transportation and communication. Loss of air travel would mean travel would take longer and overnight packages would take a few days. My God, we'd be back in the 1950's. Well, not really. We had no internet, there were 4-5 TV channels if you were lucky and the interstate highway system was nearly four decades from completion. Oh, and air travel cost a fortune in real dollars.

Dear God, how will we survive!!!! Oh the humanity!!!!

Maybe 7-11's will be open from 7-11 again???? Got forbid the clerk not have to work all night.

[Edited 2010-04-16 14:44:52]

User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8549 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4380 times:
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Quoting Boeing1970 (Reply 7):
Easy...

WE DRIVE!

We have an incredible system of highways

Please remind me what the route number is for the highway from New York to London , it seems to be missing off my map , and strangely enough so is the highway from San Francisco to Tokyo , and the one from LA to Auckland seems to be missing too ?



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineBoeing1970 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4377 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 22):
Please remind me what the route number is for the highway from New York to London

What was it in 1930 for the common man?

I'd imagine the ship building industry would see a bit of a renaissance.

[Edited 2010-04-16 14:54:35]

User currently offlineJetsGo From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3082 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4362 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 22):
San Francisco to Tokyo

Easy! Just follow Google Maps!  http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h159/xtremebillibong7/Untitled.jpg

In all honesty though, there just aren't enough people that NEED to move across the oceans to bring the world economies down if suddenly it took days as opposed to hours. Internet would suffice just fine. Good are usually shipped anyway.



Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
25 Boeing1970 : Now that's funny.
26 DesertJets : In many cases while we have the ability to shift the movement of people and goods to other modes of transportation we simply just don't have the capa
27 JetsGo : Now hold on a second. I absolutely believe it would have an impact on our economy. In fact, it would have a huge impact. But it would not bring world
28 DesertJets : I'm not arguing with you on that. Though I think some folks in the discussion overstated things a touch -- but that was after the troll came in and f
29 Boeing1970 : What was said is that we would adapt. Some people seem to think the world would come to an end, yet they forget much of this mobility has only come i
30 Tugger : In all honesty I think you are over-simplifying the impacts of no air travel. No, the world would not come to an end but yes, many things would be se
31 DXing : Didn't the Russians have some sort of aircraft that flew in ground effect right over the water? A big 4 jet engine job that flew in the Caspian or Bla
32 levent : It would undoubtedly have a huge effect on our society but nothing destructive. It just would slow down life. I guess you could say it would throw us
33 kiwiinoz : Despite the fact that I am an aviation enthusiast, I would welcome something like this for a time. Air travel has become so accessible and convenient
34 Viscount724 : Wouldn't that be a good thing? If military aircraft can't fly, it's harder to start a war. You're being much too negative. What percentage of current
35 tropical77W : Agreed
36 rcaq : It's a worse case scenario limited to today's air travel standards. As already mentioned above, we'd still be able to find alternative solutions. You
37 Elite : I assumed that when/ if air travel was shut down, it would be because of a lack of natural resources to keep fueling it, and other means such as spac
38 signol : The Man in Seat 61 would make a killing... signol
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