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Which Routes/City Pairs Really Need The A380?  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 7379 times:

A couple of members asked me to post this as a separate topic:

Most of the airlines which have ordered the A380 possess substantial operational experience and industry know how, though many haven't been consistently profitable. However, the fact that these particular airlines have a need for an aircraft with the A380's capabilities doesn't necessarily or automatically translate into there being a large untapped demand for these aircraft beyond what's already been ordered. Especially when the A380's design will likely be less than "cutting edge" shortly after EIS, given the technological advances promised by 7e7 program.

I've asked this question in several other threads: which routes/city pairs worldwide require coverage of an aircraft of the A380's capacity and capabilities 365 days a year? These are always the routes/city pairs that are cited by those who respond:

LHR-JFK


LHR-JNB/CPT


LHR-SIN


LHR-SYD/MEL


SYD-LAX


I recently asked a senior airline executive the same question citing the same routes. She took my question a step further and hypothesized that if all 744s operated on these routes are substituted with A380s and made the following statement:

"If you immediately replace every 744 currently operating on the these routes with A380s it would only amount to about 65 planes, and that's roughly half the pax configured A380s on firm order."

I don't know if her analysis is right, but it certainly makes interesting food for thought? Does anyone have other routes/city pairs which meet the stated criteria?

[Edited 2004-09-04 15:11:16]

74 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAviationman From Canada, joined Dec 1999, 634 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 7338 times:

AF will operate CDG-YUL-CDG with the A-380 as of 2006.

User currently offlineMrniji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 7333 times:

AFAIK LH will put DEL and BOM with the A380.. generally, I would add DEL and BOM to the list from many cities, like LHR, NYC (is a nonstop possible?? - this is of course unlikely since no US carrier is considering a purchase of the 380, right? And AI... no need to discuss), YYZ..

User currently offlineJoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 7317 times:

In general most of the foreign long-haul carriers into LHR could sustain an A380.
BA doesn't need it that immediately because they have much more slots in LHR available.

As an educated guess I would say LH will use its 15 A380 for:
FRA-NRT
FRA-PEK
FRA-PVG
FRA-HKG
FRA-MEX
FRA-BKK
FRA-SIN
FRA-SFO
FRA-LAX


User currently offlineRCS763av From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4373 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7301 times:

MEX-FRA.

Served 10x a week by LH 744s.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7279 times:

Traffic is estimated to grow 5% (that´s on average) the next 5 yrs

1000 747´s are operating at this moment

Some of those 744 are young (< 10 yrs)

Many will soon not be young anymore (744 is from 1988)

Some 744 will be replaced by 215-250 seaters p-to-p or as many believe.

However I would not be suprised if some will be replaced by bigger aircraft...

Expect lots of A380´s at CDG, NAR, SIN, FRA, LAX, SFO, JFK, BKK, AMS, DXB, SDY, ORD, MIA, SEL, ...

and popular other destinations such as CPT, FCO..


User currently offlineDtwclipper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7253 times:

Should NW ever move to the A380 we can expect.

DTW-NRT
DTW-AMS
DTW-PEK

However, I doubt this will ever happen, and will be blessed with the beautiful 747-400 and A330 for many years!!!


User currently offlineSafetyDude From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3795 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7213 times:

Well, VS has plans to do LHR-LAX/MIA/NYC. I believe that BOS, IAD, and SFO are also in the plans, but I am not entirely sure.

-Will



"She Flew For What We Stand For"
User currently offlineWomack17 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 478 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7186 times:
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I wouls be willing to bet that one could use the 380 on routes such as LAX-HNL, HND-HNL, LAX-HND, SFO-HND, and BRB-LIS and EZE-LIS just to name a few more high traffic pairings


Oh how I miss Midway Airlines. A class act right to then end.
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6344 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7152 times:

Are you sure you didn't mean NRT instead of HND?

User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5844 posts, RR: 15
Reply 10, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7145 times:

I'm wondering what it's hot and high performance will be like, in order to fly out of cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Albequerque, and what penalties would be made in order to do so.


Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 11, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7084 times:

When the A380 enters service any route that has multiple daily 747s is a candidate - the 747s can then be deployed to other growth routes that use 773s & A346s.

Looking just bit further into the future, when airlines begin falling by the wayside (or consolidating), the A380 would be able to mop up the resulting "stranded" pax traffic.  Smile



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKim777fan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 510 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7068 times:

Vegas, maybe, but I don't think it's very likely to see an A380 at PHX, and you most definitely won't see one at ABQ.

User currently onlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7523 posts, RR: 43
Reply 13, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 6980 times:

I agree that FRA-MEX is a good candidate for the A380. However, I wonder if the upgrading of MEX (which is currently underway) is contemplating adding or modifying one or two gates so as to be able to receive the new giant.

On a related subject, what do you think we can expect in terms of economy-class comfort in the A380? It is very clear to me that, just with like any other type of aircraft, airlines decide how much seat pitch they will offer, whether PTV's will be installed or not, etcetera, but one of the major arguments that Airbus is using to promote the A380 is that it will be a luxurious and comfortable plane. I really hope that the A380 proves to be a big advancement in terms of per-passenger cost so that airlines will consider giving economy class passengers decent pitch and PTV's (AVOD would be great).



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6660 posts, RR: 35
Reply 14, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 6916 times:

I guess I'm admittedly still perplexed as to the economics of this beast.

Will it be best served on existing long haul routes in high demand, or ultra-high density, but not necessarily long haul city pairs?

Even by replacing the existing 744 routes with the 380, you're talking about a monstrous jump in available capacity. 20-25% as a rough swag. That's tough to swallow for any route, but trying to determine which ones are the most viable is a tricky proposition.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 15, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6818 times:

Even by replacing the existing 744 routes with the 380, you're talking about a monstrous jump in available capacity. 20-25% as a rough swag. That's tough to swallow for any route, but trying to determine which ones are the most viable is a tricky proposition.

How many city pairs have multiple daily 744s? Even with just two 744s on a route, a A380 could substitute one 744, and a 777 could substitute the other, for example. There are many variations depending on peak pax traffic according to time of day, day of week, etc. where the A380 could add scheduling flexibility and overall increased fleet productivity.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6781 times:

I could see AF putting one on the ATL-CDG route to replace both an AF and DL flight on the route. You take 2 777s or a 777 and an A340 off of the route and shift them elsewhere in each airlines' system.

It is rumored that Korean Air may be the first A380 operator into ATL; While it may not be because of the passenger loads, more likely, it's because of the cargo capacity.


User currently offlineJakob77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6729 times:

HKG-LHR
Both BA and CX have 2x daily 744s on this route leaving within an hour of each other.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 18, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6625 times:

From the latest OAG there is some interesting info that can be gleaned.

Total No. of weekly 747 flights: 7,342

Over 20% of weekly 747 flights are under 1000 miles.

Over 50% of weekly 747 flights are within 737 range.

Over 93% of weekly 747 flights are within 762 range.

Top 10 flight distances:

500 - 600 miles = 886 flights/wk
5900 - 6000 miles = 312 flights/wk
200 - 300 miles = 272 flights/wk
700 - 800 miles = 256 flights/wk
6700 - 6800 miles = 202 flights/wk
5400 - 5500 miles = 201 flights/wk
1300 - 1400 miles = 190 flights/wk
1800 - 1900 miles = 172 flights/wk
3800 - 3900 miles = 166 flights/wk
3400 - 3500 miles = 162 flights/wk



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineCsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1359 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6581 times:

I suppose an A380 can replace two 747s on a route where one airline is flying that route and has a monopoly or on a route that has a huge amount of flights (e.g. LHR - JFK).

But say a European carrier and a US carrier each have two widebodies from an East Coast destination to a European destination. Say each has a flight leaving at 6:00 PM to Europe and each has a flight leaving at 9:00 PM to Europe.Now it could happen that the airline that switches to one 380 flight (at 7:30) notices that while they could fill up two 747s, they cannot at the time the one flight is leaving, they find customers opt for either the earlier or later flights and the other airline is considering adding another flight to conver the pax.

I'm actually more a lurker in this board, and I certainly don't know as much about Civil Av as most of you, but some of the city pairs mentioned I don't think will work. (e.g. FRA - MEX) It's not enough to have two planes replaced by one, customers now have only one chance to fly to where they want to go as opposed to the two before. Another airline could come in at the old time of one flight with a smaller plane and skim. Then the two planes become one and a half plane and the 380 has empty seats.
My 2 centavos.
Flame away!!!



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6504 times:

Planemaker:

"From the latest OAG there is some interesting info that can be gleaned..."

Perhaps you can share with us what conclusions can be drawn from the info gleaned regarding the A380?

Thanx


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6413 times:

I'm also posting JoFMO's reply to a similar post I made in the "What's Happening to South African 744" thread, I think it's interesting and should be a part of this thread too:

@LeeLaw:

you mentioned the most commonly mentioned routes for the A380, but non of them includes FRA or CDG, although LH and AF have ordered 15 and 10 pieces of that beauty. So there must be a lot more markets.

And I also doubt the number of 65 planes. LHR-NYC will not be a prime A380 route. From the 4 operators on that route only VS has ordered it, and I guess they have more profitable routes for the A380. LHR-NYC is one of the few long haul routes where frequency goes over size.
On the other hand I counted just around 14 daily A380 flights between LHR and SYD/MEL (1x QR, 3x EK, 2x TG, 2x MH, 3x SQ, 3x QF) in the foreseeable future.


User currently offlineWdleiser From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 961 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6193 times:

I would expect Lufthansa to have Frankfurt-Johannesburg/Capetown

EDDF-KJFK
EDDF-KORD
EDDF-KLAX
EDDF-KSFO
EDDF-NRT

and other routes


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 23, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6068 times:

LHR-NYC will not be a prime A380 route. LHR-NYC is one of the few long haul routes where frequency goes over size.

Yes, frequency is very important but size still matters somewhat between London and New York:

777 - 109 flts/wk
744 - 55 flts/wk
A346 - 7 flts/wk
A343 - 7 flts/wk
763 - 7 flts/wk



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6729 posts, RR: 18
Reply 24, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6033 times:

Well when LH, SQ, and AF get their A380, I had better see a B747, B762, A330 or something flying into RDU. That is the least they can do with their now spare A/C!!!!!


Aiming High and going far..
25 AFROTC : BTW, does anybody happen to have a pic or a link to a pic of the cockpit layout of this giant?
26 Spaceman : I can see alot of trans-pacific flights needing the A380 as travelers in Asia continues to grow. Isn't Asia the fastest growing market in terms of tra
27 Soups : LHR-ACC CDG-JFK BEY-CDG BOM-LHR LHR-LAX LHR-NRT
28 Rdu777 : GSO will be needing them once Fedex opens their hub. With a lot of European traffic, it should be a given. Lucky for me, I live about 100 miles away.
29 Mdundon : If I'm not mistaken, only Memphis will be ready to accept the A380. Does anyone have any accurate info on which US airports will be able to handle the
30 Tullamarine : Out of Australia thefollowing A380 routes are assured. SYD-SIN-LHR (QF & SQ) MEL-SIN-LHR (QF & maybe SQ) SYD-LAX (QF) may extend some A380 services to
31 Aerofan : No city pairs really need the A380. The current model ac are doing a bang up job
32 Aussie747 : SYD-BKK-LHR QF 1/2 was identified as the most important route for the QF A380 I cannot believe SIN-TYO (SQ) has not been mentioned for the A380 , as t
33 Post contains images Starlionblue : No city pairs really need the A380. The current model ac are doing a bang up job Then why has it sold over 100 frames already? Surely all the operator
34 Trickijedi : I'm not sure about routes that really need the A380 but these are the fantasy routes I'd like to see (on any airline): ORD-HKG - current UA flight is
35 Jeffrito : When I think of a city-pair "really needing" the biggest planes, I think of a pair with very high O&D traffic & slot- or time- restricted airports & r
36 Ruscoe : It is what the passenger wants, that will count in the end, and they want one or all of four things IMHO. Either cheap fares, the flexibility of frequ
37 Post contains images Cancidas : LGA-JFK... paint it in the colors of a NYC taxi!
38 Echster : From the latest OAG there is some interesting info that can be gleaned. Total No. of weekly 747 flights: 7,342 Over 20% of weekly 747 flights are unde
39 FlyIGuy : Well out of IAD, I could see these city pairs with these Airlines. IAD-CDG AF - Currently 2 777's IAD-LHR BA - Currently 1 747 & 1 777 IAD- FRA LH - C
40 Post contains images Legacyins : FlyIGuy: I'm wearing glasses but I can't see the flight you mentioned Little confusion.Do you wish UA had (2) 747s on the IAD-HKG route or do you thin
41 Ejazz : SQs A380 will possibly be on SIN-NRT and SIN-BKK initially for crew training and familiarization purposes only. Once enough crew are qualified on the
42 AirframeAS : No city pairs really need the A380. The current model ac are doing a bang up job HAHA! This statement, I agree with. The current models, post 9/11 are
43 Fxmd11 : I am very sure it will be BKK-FRA or BKK/LHR. At the moment we see 3x day outbound ex BKK to FRA and 4 x to LHR / with 9R to LGW. All of them have a l
44 Icarus75 : At least during holiday times (summer and Christmas), AF will fly A380 to the french west indies (Fort-de-France, Point-à-Pitre) : at these times of
45 Post contains images Gary2880 : i think virgin atlantic should do heathrow to aberdeen oooh i dont know... 5 times a day maybe with their A380s, maybe richard could look into that pl
46 Post contains images Planemaker : ...but some of the city pairs mentioned I don't think will work. (e.g. FRA - MEX) FRA - MEX is a good example of a city pair where it appears that the
47 Teahan : Though plans no doubt change quickly, back in summer 2003 Air France said that its A380’s would be used on: CDG - NRT CDG – JFK/EWR CDG - YUL CDG
48 Zvezda : Planemaker: "Another potential A380 route out of FRA is to LAX. There are currently: 17 744s/wk 7 763s/wk 7 A333/wk 6 777/wk LH flies twice daily 744s
49 Post contains images Planemaker : LAX-FRA has two daily LH 744s flying 4 hours apart. If LH wants to increase capacity, changing one of those to an A380 would make sense. Actually, the
50 AM : Same thing with FRA / MEX / FRA. 3 days a week, LH has 2 B744 flights on this route which depart only one hour from each other. An A380 would make per
51 Leelaw : AM: If both 744s are full, even if you substitute one A380, won't LH still have to run a second aircraft (albeit smaller) as the A380 still doesn't ha
52 Aerofan : No city pairs really need the A380. The current model ac are doing a bang up job "Then why has it sold over 100 frames already? Surely all the operato
53 Post contains images Maddy : "There is no need for the 380. It is all wishful thinking. What passengers need is to get to their destination as qucikly as possible! not 24hrs to fl
54 Zvezda : Replacing 10x/week 744s (3900 seats (LH)) with 7x/week A380s (up to 3885 seats) makes a lot of sense e.g. FRA-MEX.
55 Leelaw : Replacing 10x/week 744s (3900 seats (LH)) with 7x/week A380s (up to 3885 seats) makes a lot of sense e.g. FRA-MEX. Apparently the extra capacity is on
56 Spaceman : "There is no need for the 380. It is all wishful thinking. What passengers need is to get to their destination as qucikly as possible! not 24hrs to fl
57 JoFMO : Sorry, AEROFAN, but I cant follow your arguments. The word 'moron' in your last paragraph describes maybe better yourself than the ones in the fleet p
58 Leelaw : JoFMO: "Same capacity but 3 flights less." What do you tell the passengers that can't be accommodated on one A380 who want to fly on the 3 days of the
59 EddieDude : I think that since many of the passengers who fly this route are leisure travelers, they can adapt to the capacity issue Leelaw. In any case, your poi
60 JoFMO : LeeLaw: I would call it yield management. LH flies 2times to MEX on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. Maybe there is more demand these special dates, bu
61 Post contains links Starlionblue : BTW, does anybody happen to have a pic or a link to a pic of the cockpit layout of this giant? It will be very similar to the current A318-340 in layo
62 Post contains images Aerofan : Leelaw Thank you, for pointing out what I thought was obvious. Sometimes I forget who I'm talking to. Appreciate it
63 Aerofan : Spaceman "A380 isn't exactly a lumbering whale. It will be the fastest commercial jet flying when enter service. Not to mention that it will also be
64 Post contains images Aerofan : JoFMO: "Same capacity but 3 flights less." What do you tell the passengers that can't be accommodated on one A380 who want to fly on the 3 days of the
65 JoFMO : Maybe we should ask AF or SN how they handle their African network. Some of their destinations are just served once or twice a week, but that doesn't
66 JoFMO : Aerofan: don't you think that LH already has this problem now. Or do you really thing that the demand FRA-MEX is now on Wednesday double as high than
67 Carpethead : By the way, the NRT-MUC cannot be operated by 744 as the landings slots are for the short-runway. Well, here are my picks for A380 routes. QF SYD-BKK-
68 TBCITDG : Could EZE-MAD use an A380 ??? The only down side that I can think of is that it would only really come in handy during the peak Summer months and even
69 N1120a : The 744 cruises at .86 mach, and that is still faster than the A380 (not by much). Second, it is not necessarily a matter of matching capacity, but po
70 Post contains images Lehpron : >> "No city pairs really need the A380. The current model ac are doing a bang up job"
71 Leelaw : Aerofan: Thanx for the kind words. I'm not as committed a skeptic of the A380 as you seem to be, but a skeptic nonetheless. JoFMO: "You have to try to
72 Carpethead : Japan Airlines has never directly purchased from Airbus. Not that it never will. JL has the most number of slots at NRT, so they have the flexibility
73 Post contains images NWADC9 : Sydney, Paris, Frankfort, Memphis, Bangkok, and other cities where the A380 will be based at by airlines-MOHAVE LOL
74 Post contains images Leelaw : Apparently the moderators transferred this thread to the polls and preferences forum for a while, now it's back here again...go figure. HMMM...I spoke
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