Bill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8508 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 7167 times:
Airbus eventually wants one rolling off the line each week. There are 149 orders confirmed and expect an annoucement from china before the end of feb.
This program by the time it ends will probably net closer to 1000 orders, if not more, then it will to 300 orders.
Col From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2275 posts, RR: 22
Reply 8, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 7162 times:
It still amazes me how some people think that only a max of 300 to 400 units will be sold. Just got back from an Asian trip, and I can tell you that this thing is required now for some carriers. If SQ are only going to put 500 pax on, with special services like they offer on the 345, then the others will have to follow suit or loose the business. The services that can be offered cannot be done with a 744. Are the likes of BA, JL, ANA, KL, NW and UA going to let that happen in 2008/2009/2010. Don't think so, watch and see, SQ have some good ideas which will lead the market for the 380.
FCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7099 times:
N.Forgeard said he was expecting to sell 750.He never said 1000.
We all reason in 2005 , without considering the future.
The growth in the civil aviation sector will be about 5% each year for the coming years.If nothing wrong happens on this earth (i am thinking of an event such as Sep11th) it could be more.Do not forget with the A380 , for the same price , all passengers (all classes) will get 30% more space than with the 747.So if you are intelligent you'll prefer to be in a 380 , rather than a 747 or a 777/340.It's simply human !!!!!!!
And without speaking of the economic advantages for the airlines , this plane will revolution the civil aviation transport.
This plane will be the first to burn 3 liters of fuel per passenger for 100 km , like a car !!!!!!!!!
Already airlines (EK , VS) put the pressure on Airbus to get the streched version (900).
So 750 frames is really reasonnable.
At the beginning , Airbus will produce 1 plane per week.
The A380 China Southern order will be signed next Friday at Paris.
Beaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 21
Reply 12, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7063 times:
The head of Lufthansa indicated during the roll-out last week that LH will most defenitely increase their number of A 380's .Knowing their focus on Asia and the USA,I would not be surprised to see Lufthansa operating 30 A 380's in ten years.
Same scenario would be valid for AF - so with three or four companies like EK,LH,AF and eventuelly Quantas ,Airbus could sell already close to 150 planes...
The figure of 750 planes seems ambitious but quite realistic.
Aerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 8317 posts, RR: 17
Reply 14, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6963 times:
I think if you consider the faith EK have put in the A388 it could reflect in the end what a lot of airlines will order. If you calculate that the existing carriers that have ordered A380s end up with similar numbers of A380 as they do have pax 747s (accounting for inevitable passenger growth on certain routes/new markets & flights + the 74A not being built/747 production stopping) AF/LH/SQ/QF/CX/VS/TG/KE (26+26+40+30+20+16+25+30) 213 + orders based on similar assumption from BA/IB/CZ/JL/NH/SA (57/6/6(think they ordered)/60/30/10) 169 + a total EK order of minimum 50 (more likely more) and you have 432 without any freighters/larger or smaller variants,any secondary type airline orders like EY/KL or any major orders from any American airlines (though I'm sure UA would join the party if everyone else was). I think that perhaps we may see 600 without too much effort, Assuming that we have 5 per month thats around 10 years of production which I consider would be a short production life. With all that in mind It would be reasonable to expect around 700/750.
The inevitable whining from Boeing fans fighting a Gihad against airbus will insue from that guestimate I'm sure, but I feel we will end up with fewer aircraft types flying in 15 years.
RJs/A32x sized replacement /7E7/A388
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 2112 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6301 times:
...between 400 and 500 frames - regardless if Boeing puts out a competitor or not. Keep in mind that it will take probably about 20 years or so to get to that number. Noone will order it in bulk - we'll be seeing a single orders of about up to a dozen frames.
...with the exception of Emirates, but somehow I don't see them buying a hundred of them...
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PlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 1689 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6285 times:
You might not be too far out.
Both A & B predict a near trebling in passenger numbers to 2024. Even if you take a modest projection (say numbers double), how will this be possible?
Will LHR be doubled in size? Will the number of European airports be doubled?
Given it takes 5-7yrs to obtain construction consents in Europe to build a commercial airport, and well over 50% of the attempts to construct new airports or add runways have failed in the last decade, this only leaves doubling aircraft speed or increasing aircraft size, as ways to move more people with only small incremental increases in airport infrastructure.
B sees more smaller aircraft flying point to point, especially in the US. Airspace and airport limitations are likely to make this less viable in Europe, Asia and the ME.
Airport capacity is not as much of an issue in the USA, as projected growth over those 20yrs is nearly the lowest of any region.
Mountain From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (11 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6193 times:
Boeing has always said...there is not enough of a market over the next 20 years for two manufacturers to make money on a super jumbo. This could be a huge mis-calculated or a smart move. This is reminiscent of the L-1011 vs DC10. Neither Lockeed or McDonnell Douglas made any money on their trijets because the market was limited. Maybe one company..... could have. However, Boeing believes there could be a market for up to 2000 of the 7E7 or A350 type aircraft for both replacements and future expansion. Anyone agree with this?