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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?  
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 386 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6251 times:

We all know that Airbus has predicted it will sell over 1000 A380's in it's lifetime but I was curious to see how many A.Netters thought they would sell.

They have already sold approx. 130

My guess is about 750.

How many do you think???



41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2129 posts, RR: 22
Reply 1, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6199 times:

By the end of the run I would guess close to 1000 units. A large quantity will be freighters, and if they could get them certified - Combi's.

Col


User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6172 times:

They'll be lucky to break 300 tops


"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8976 posts, RR: 39
Reply 3, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6146 times:

I'll go with 400 units.


"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineAirgeek12 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 6091 times:

Already sold 130? When do they expect to have that last 130th unit deliverd to the carrier?

User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31712 posts, RR: 56
Reply 5, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6034 times:

What would be their rate of production/month.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 386 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6029 times:

I think they want to get to a point where they are delivering 4-5 a month.

Initially I think they are going to build 2-3 per month.


User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8466 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6008 times:

Airbus eventually wants one rolling off the line each week. There are 149 orders confirmed and expect an annoucement from china before the end of feb.
This program by the time it ends will probably net closer to 1000 orders, if not more, then it will to 300 orders.


User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2129 posts, RR: 22
Reply 8, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6003 times:

It still amazes me how some people think that only a max of 300 to 400 units will be sold. Just got back from an Asian trip, and I can tell you that this thing is required now for some carriers. If SQ are only going to put 500 pax on, with special services like they offer on the 345, then the others will have to follow suit or loose the business. The services that can be offered cannot be done with a 744. Are the likes of BA, JL, ANA, KL, NW and UA going to let that happen in 2008/2009/2010. Don't think so, watch and see, SQ have some good ideas which will lead the market for the 380.

User currently offlineDutchflyer From Netherlands, joined Feb 2004, 169 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5987 times:

They will sell as many planes as airliners/governments want to buy.

No plane more or less.


User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5970 times:

They will sell as many planes as airliners/governments want to buy.

As happens with any aircraft type...  Insane


Regards
Udo


User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 5940 times:

N.Forgeard said he was expecting to sell 750.He never said 1000.
We all reason in 2005 , without considering the future.
The growth in the civil aviation sector will be about 5% each year for the coming years.If nothing wrong happens on this earth (i am thinking of an event such as Sep11th) it could be more.Do not forget with the A380 , for the same price , all passengers (all classes) will get 30% more space than with the 747.So if you are intelligent you'll prefer to be in a 380 , rather than a 747 or a 777/340.It's simply human !!!!!!!
And without speaking of the economic advantages for the airlines , this plane will revolution the civil aviation transport.
This plane will be the first to burn 3 liters of fuel per passenger for 100 km , like a car !!!!!!!!!
Already airlines (EK , VS) put the pressure on Airbus to get the streched version (900).
So 750 frames is really reasonnable.

At the beginning , Airbus will produce 1 plane per week.

The A380 China Southern order will be signed next Friday at Paris.

Air China will sign theirs before the Summer.


User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5904 times:

The head of Lufthansa indicated during the roll-out last week that LH will most defenitely increase their number of A 380's .Knowing their focus on Asia and the USA,I would not be surprised to see Lufthansa operating 30 A 380's in ten years.
Same scenario would be valid for AF - so with three or four companies like EK,LH,AF and eventuelly Quantas ,Airbus could sell already close to 150 planes...
The figure of 750 planes seems ambitious but quite realistic.



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5843 times:

Well as said elesewhere, Airbus & Boeing both think airtraffic will treefold in the next 20 years. More then 700 747 will retire in that period.

So .. 700+ doesn´t seem a to wild forecast.. plenty of room left then for 7e7/350´s to fill other market segments..


User currently offlineAerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7389 posts, RR: 16
Reply 14, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5804 times:

I think if you consider the faith EK have put in the A388 it could reflect in the end what a lot of airlines will order. If you calculate that the existing carriers that have ordered A380s end up with similar numbers of A380 as they do have pax 747s (accounting for inevitable passenger growth on certain routes/new markets & flights + the 74A not being built/747 production stopping) AF/LH/SQ/QF/CX/VS/TG/KE (26+26+40+30+20+16+25+30) 213 + orders based on similar assumption from BA/IB/CZ/JL/NH/SA (57/6/6(think they ordered)/60/30/10) 169 + a total EK order of minimum 50 (more likely more) and you have 432 without any freighters/larger or smaller variants,any secondary type airline orders like EY/KL or any major orders from any American airlines (though I'm sure UA would join the party if everyone else was). I think that perhaps we may see 600 without too much effort, Assuming that we have 5 per month thats around 10 years of production which I consider would be a short production life. With all that in mind It would be reasonable to expect around 700/750.

The inevitable whining from Boeing fans fighting a Gihad against airbus will insue from that guestimate I'm sure, but I feel we will end up with fewer aircraft types flying in 15 years.
RJs/A32x sized replacement /7E7/A388


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 11 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5661 times:

Depends on future rules and fuel prices, if stage 4 is implemented in many parts of the world, older B747 planes will scrapped earlier, the AN-22/124/225 will also run into problem.

User currently offlineBoeing nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5475 times:

My guess is 400-500.

User currently offlinePac From Germany, joined Oct 1999, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5465 times:

well if there wont be any other 400+ Passenger plane built in the next 5-10
years ,they might sell 1200 + !!!!


User currently offlineMountain From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 30 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5383 times:

800 if Boeing does not come out with 747ADV. Hard to estimate if Boeing comes out with any viable competition.

User currently offlineTrevd From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5223 times:

Believe it will all depend of whether Boeing builds the 747 ADV. If they do, then it think you will see a max of 100-150 A380's built and delivered.

If the 747 ADV is not built, you may see a max of 400-500. The only way this Program can get over 500 units is if nobody ever builds a 450 seater before 2020.


User currently offlineGearup From Canada, joined Dec 2000, 578 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5209 times:

600 to 800 with a 747ADV
800 to 1K without a 747ADV or other VLA
Over a 20 year period
................easily

GU



I have no memory of this place.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1911 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5142 times:

Realistically...
...between 400 and 500 frames - regardless if Boeing puts out a competitor or not. Keep in mind that it will take probably about 20 years or so to get to that number. Noone will order it in bulk - we'll be seeing a single orders of about up to a dozen frames.

...with the exception of Emirates, but somehow I don't see them buying a hundred of them...




Now get your f***ing Jumbo Jet off my airport!!! - AC/DC "Ain't No Fun To Be a Millionaire"
User currently offlinePlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 1083 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5126 times:

Gearup

You might not be too far out.

Both A & B predict a near trebling in passenger numbers to 2024. Even if you take a modest projection (say numbers double), how will this be possible?

Will LHR be doubled in size? Will the number of European airports be doubled?

Given it takes 5-7yrs to obtain construction consents in Europe to build a commercial airport, and well over 50% of the attempts to construct new airports or add runways have failed in the last decade, this only leaves doubling aircraft speed or increasing aircraft size, as ways to move more people with only small incremental increases in airport infrastructure.

B sees more smaller aircraft flying point to point, especially in the US. Airspace and airport limitations are likely to make this less viable in Europe, Asia and the ME.

Airport capacity is not as much of an issue in the USA, as projected growth over those 20yrs is nearly the lowest of any region.


User currently offlineMountain From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 30 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5034 times:

Boeing has always said...there is not enough of a market over the next 20 years for two manufacturers to make money on a super jumbo. This could be a huge mis-calculated or a smart move. This is reminiscent of the L-1011 vs DC10. Neither Lockeed or McDonnell Douglas made any money on their trijets because the market was limited. Maybe one company..... could have. However, Boeing believes there could be a market for up to 2000 of the 7E7 or A350 type aircraft for both replacements and future expansion. Anyone agree with this?

User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 24, posted (9 years 11 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 4910 times:

Depends on how long they run with it. I assume most planes have a 20-year cycle, so maybe 500-750 planes, which IMO is damned good. I know my number is low cuz I am not a sales expert.  Smile

I am not going to insist on a 1,000 not happening, but I will keep my eye on it.

For comparison, how many 747/A340 variants that which would represent their final product development have been purchased?



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
25 Norjet : In today's St. Paul Pioneer Press, Tim Griffin, NW EVP Mktg & Distribution, says that Northwest doesn't see the A380 in its future. "The number of mar
26 PPVRA : I'll add something to my first post: 400 units in the first 10 years. If it goes on popular than sure, they could get 750 in 20 years or so. Cheers, P
27 Reggaebird : Airbus will never sell even 750 A380's in passenger-only form. I would be very surprised if they ever manage 400 pure passenger ones. I think that Bo
28 Mariner : Reggaiebird: "...when passengers begin to avoid bookings on these planes due to the "cattlecar" syndrome." Why would this apply to the A380 any more t
29 Irishpower : OK--so now all of the posts begs the question....... If Boeing comes out with the 747Adv.---how many 747's will they sell compared to the A380? I know
30 KEESJE : About this frequency thing.. If I travel from AMS to SEA thre is 1 daily direct flight. The higher frequencies available come from the Hub-Hub opertio
31 Aerorobnz : the A380 is not really designed to reduce frequency, it is designed to continue existing frequencies that could do with more seats on the route SIN-LH
32 Scbriml : I would assume that large airlines with 747 fleets such as BA,JAL, and CX would opt for the 747 over the A380. Why? There would be very little in comm
33 Greaser : Why? There would be very little in common between a 747-400 and a 747ADV, so it will effectively be intorducing a new aircraft type to the fleet. Depe
34 Ready4Pushback : I couldn't disagree with you more, Reggaebird. Why would airlines opt for a 7E7 if they wanted to move alot of passengers? I hope the 7E7 does well, b
35 Astuteman : I think Gearup will be near the mark, although I think the presence of a 747ADV would have a bigger impact on A380 sales than just 200-300. Don't forg
36 Irishpower : I've heard many times that what the next generation 747 (747 ADV.) really needs is a new wing. can anyone tell me why? I know the new generation of bl
37 Leelaw : A388: 200 passenger transports and 100 package freighters, perhaps another 50 combis if type certification is achievable. A389: 100 passenger transpor
38 Keesje : A388: 200 passenger transports in that case carriers will shortly start cancelling their options..
39 Leelaw : "in that case carriers will shortly start cancelling their options.." Maybe, or converting them to the A389. EK's Mr. Clark claims he really wants the
40 Flyabunch : Like most planes, one of the factors that will influence sales is the true performance. Up until now, everyone is buying on faith and I am sure that t
41 RIX : The air traffic will grow, but it all depends how much this particular sector will grow. 149 A380s are ordered - but this niche was empty, and is pret
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