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B748 Or A380?  
User currently offlineFlyTweed From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 84 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9446 times:

Any speculation on what will be more successful? The 748 accomodates between 400-500 passengers, while the A380 can accomodate between 500-800 passengers. Both are going to principally serve intercontinental flights, but it'll be interesting to see which capacity is more successful. Thoughts?

16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMauriceB From Netherlands, joined Aug 2004, 2490 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9414 times:

i think both are equal with the operating costs BUT think that eventually the 747-8, although it was launched way more later, will sell better than the A380 does... this because of the following reasons:

-lower operating cost, as well as per seat as per trip cost
-newer technology used.. that from the 787
-lower maintenance cost, because its based on the 787 wich will be revelutionary in maintenance time needed
-compability with 747-400, it doesn't require more than a couple of hours of training to train a pilot from a 747-400 to an 747-8 , and also ground equipment doesn't need special requirements.
-the 747-8 is able to fly to over 220 airports, while the A380 makes it to about 30 airports
- airlines like BA, wich they said themself, are seeying the 747-8 capicity as a better number of seats than the A380 has.

Cargo:

A380 is a package freighter, while the 747-8 can take lots more heavy cargo and more bigger containers thanks to its quite impresive stretch


although the 747-8 has a lot more advantages, the A380 also has some advantages

-is already available in end 2006, while the 747-8 is available in end 2009 at earliest
- takes more people, so for airlines like Qantas , wich fly's the busy SYD-LAX route is more atractive
-offers more space for Things like a bar or massage room


User currently offlineGlom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2818 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9392 times:

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 1):
lower operating cost, as well as per seat as per trip cost

That remains to be seen. There seems to be some number fudging going on. We need wbp to provide his analysis.

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 1):
newer technology used.. that from the 787

Not necessarily meaningful.

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 1):
lower maintenance cost, because its based on the 787 wich will be revelutionary in maintenance time needed

The CFRP fuselage a big factor in that. This feature won't be making it onto the 748.

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 1):
the 747-8 is able to fly to over 220 airports, while the A380 makes it to about 30 airports

It might give it a leg up in the short term, but the future is open.


User currently offlineStuckInCA From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1962 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9368 times:

Successful is a pretty broad term. Return on investment as a percentage? Revenue generated? Hard to imagine the A380 won't generate more large numbers, but who knows based on something like ROI %.

User currently offlineUSAF336TFS From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 1445 posts, RR: 52
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9354 times:

Both aircraft will find their respective niche markets, and in many cases, might actually compliment one another. LH immediately comes to mind in that respect.


336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1885 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9315 times:

400 A380-800s built.
500 B747-800 built.
Both including freighter versions in the next 20 years, assuming A380 meets or exceeds its performance guarantees.

That's my take on it.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineUSAF336TFS From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 1445 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9289 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 5):
400 A380-800s built.
500 B747-800 built.
Both including freighter versions in the next 20 years, assuming A380 meets or exceeds its performance guarantees.

That's my take on it.

I'll agree with your numbers although they seem a bit optimistic. If you're 75% correct, I would say both programmes would be viewed as successful.



336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9255 times:

I think both will do well, but Boeing has the advantage as they have a far smaller development cost and the break even point is far lower - like 50 to 100 planes from what I have seen. The 748 is going to put pressure on Airbus to keep a sharp pencil when pricing the 380 - I'm sure Airbus would have preferred to see the 747 line shut down.

While the market for these planes is not large Boeing is in a position to profit from it very early and Airbus will have a longer road to profitability, but will eventually get there. If you look at the profitability of the two lines Boeing definitely had the advantage.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9237 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Please correct me if I am wrong. Is the A380 and B748 even targeting the same market segment?


Rgds

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9214 times:

It depends on the projected growth of the carrier, which depends on their trend numbers not what we precieved as their spending tendency, i.e. BA's all-Boeing fleet.  Smile

Large growth = A388
Low growth = 748
Midrange growth = mix of both aircraft



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 9098 times:

It seems John prefers the A380



He took her for a ride today..

http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.a...e/0,5936,17258873%255E3102,00.html


User currently offlineRichard28 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2003, 1619 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 9059 times:

What current 747 destinations are not currently able to handle the A380?

my guess is that, in the short term at least, it will be airlines that fly predominantly to these destinations that will appeal most to the 747-800?

(BTW I assume it will be 747-800 rather than 747-8?)


User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 9028 times:

Anyone know the length/wingspan/MTOW of the 747-800 and 747-800F?

User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8017 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 9014 times:

I think BA and JL are likely 747-8 customers for the passenger version. The reason is simple: BA controls a large fraction of landing slots at LHR and JL controls a large fraction of landing slots at NRT, so the type of landing slot restrictions that requires the use of bigger planes doesn't affect BA and JL and their home airports. That gives them more flight scheduling flexibility, so a plane as large as the A380-800 aren't necessary even on busy routes like NRT-HKG and LHR-JFK.

User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 8966 times:

A380 by far. The 747 is humpy and I don't like humps.

User currently offlineFlyTweed From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 84 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8933 times:

There are certainly plenty of major airports at this point that handle the 747 and are not A380-ready. Just a few that come to mind, at least in the U.S.: BOS, LGA, MCO, SFO, SEA, PHL... I think in the interim it's going to be hard to get a lot of these airports onboard with expansion to allow the A380. I know that MCO has a big Virgin presence, which uses the 747, and BOS has several operations from BA and Lufthansa, both of which use 747's on some of their routes. I'd be interested to see how the A340 will come into play with all of this - some international carriers using it for intercontinental flights may stick to the single-deck configuration of the A340.

User currently offlineDavidT From Switzerland, joined Oct 2005, 477 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 8917 times:

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 14):
A380 by far. The 747 is humpy and I don't like humps.

This may sound odd, but 747-800 for me - I like the hump. Makes it look sleek Big grin


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