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A Thread For Predictions For The New Year  
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2824 posts, RR: 42
Posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4607 times:

I thought it would be fun to have a thread for predictions for the new years. Given how insane the last year has been (I don't think anyone on this board could have believed for a second that Boeing would snag almost 1000 new commitments for planes, Airbus 800) I expect next year won't look anything like these predictions, but it's fun anyways.

Some pie in the sky predictions to get things started:


  • I think that we will see a slight drop in order numbers, but that will be picked up at the end of the year by a resurgant American Market.

  • I believe that all of the major US carriers will launch long term order commitments near the end of next year. In particular look for UA to eliminate the remaining Boeing 737s with A320s and to order more 777s and possibly 787s to replace the 747s and older 767s. UA will ramp up their DEN hub with new international flights and more traffic and make serious inroads in Independence Air's markets.

  • US airways will get a lot of good press around the middle of the year around how well the merger is working. Near the end of the year, it won't be so obvious. No major new orders will come other then the already agreed on A350 order.

  • DL won't stay in bankruptcy long. As they emerge, expect a large order to replace the 767s and the older 737s. Boeing will accept these new orders in lieu of the huge backlog DL already has.

  • AA will place a larger order to replace the A300s.

  • NW will start putting pressure on both Airbus and Boeing to come up with a next generation replacement for the A320 and B737.

  • Details on Boeing's 737 replacement will start to solidify later on in the year.

  • Virgin Atlantic and British Airways will both get more nervious as parts of the openskies agreement start to get implemented. Both companies look to merge with a smaller US carrier.

  • F9, FL, and B6 will continue looking at short distance international flights. One of them will also start to look at doing a LHR flight.

  • The A380 will pick up a few more orders, mostly from China seeking to keep a tit for tat relationship with both the EU via Airbus and the US via Boeing.

  • EK will shock the Aviation world by being the launch customer for the 787-10X.

  • SQ will complete the Boeing Trifecta for a large widebody plane.

  • the 787 will continue to outsell the A350 at a 3:2 ratio.

  • The A320 will continue to outsell the 737 at a 3:2 ratio.

  • The 777's dominance over the A340 will continue.

  • Airbus will launch two new A340 models to counter the pressure from the 777.

  • Oil prices will go down, but no where near as much as people are expecting. It will also spike higher then it did this year.


[Edited 2005-12-31 22:21:53]

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKC135R From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 725 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4592 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
replace the A300s

What A300s???

I have one prediction, just a feeling I have, and I hope I am wrong - NW won't make it out of bankruptcy.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2824 posts, RR: 42
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4580 times:

Ooops. I was thinking that AA's A300s were at DL for some reason.

User currently offlineKC135R From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 725 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4567 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
Ooops. I was thinking that AA's A300s were at DL for some reason.

No prob - I figured as much.

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
Oil prices will go down, but no where near as much as people are expecting. It will also spike higher then it did this year.

From what I have read, analysts (who are not always right, of course) predict oil will peak in 2006 - the consensus seem to be around $60/barrel - and then remain high, but relatively stable for several years.

However, there are so many factors that seem to influence oil prices, I don't see how any prediction on that can be too reliable.


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4105 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4549 times:

I think UA will order 748s and 788s in 3Q or 4Q in 2006, I don't see more 777s (possibly a few -200LRs, but doubtful).

I also expect another order from QF for 777NGs.

DL won't make it out of bankruptcy this year.

KC135R, I think I agree that NW's chances aren't looking very good given what's going on. I think the labor situation is MUCH worse than it was at UA and may be enough to bring down the airline (especially if the pilots strike over the NewCo thing).

Also, Independence Air will cease operations in 8 days.


User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4458 times:

Flyi implodes.

NW orders more DC-9's.  

[Edited 2006-01-01 05:39:56]

User currently offlineFLAIRPORT From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4442 times:

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 5):
Flyi implodes.

NW orders more DC-9's.

Well at least one of those is right!


Mine include:
B6 expands to BDL and operates flights to FLL to make me happy
DL's song switchover goes over suprisingly smooth, but they lose pax on the NE-FL route as MD88s replace songs 757s...DL is forced to put the 757s back on the NE-FL routes and has to cut key west coast routes to cover the international expansion.
NW goes down the toliet and gets absorbed into CO and DL...

then DL emerges from bankruptcy and announces its new LCC...Sing, to fly NE-FL routes!


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24997 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4407 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
DL won't stay in bankruptcy long.

I hope they don't rush it.

When United went into Chapter 11, CEO Tilton said they wouldn't come out until they had squeezed every possible advantage out of it.

I hope Delta's CEO Grinstein was listening to that.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16810 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4402 times:

Mergers will start, that's my prediction.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineKahala777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4377 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):
Mergers will start, that's my prediction

Something tells me that Frontier, Northwest, and Air Tran will all be looking to marry with some other airline.

KAHALA777


User currently offlineBakestar From Australia, joined Sep 2005, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4373 times:

How about the expantion of 'buisness-class only' airlines.

The same rate at which the low cost carriers did.



fly'nhi
User currently offlinePiercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4373 times:

DL barley makes it, NW will go down in a blaze of strikes  Sad

AS will either be dead after a plane hits the drink or will rehire mechs.

CVG b/c new DFW for DL, SLC and ATL only hubs left

UA reborn  Smile

indy is dead  Sad

Mesa is dead  Smile

Embraer announces widebody after Boeing plans a variation of the 737 in the 70 seat range.  biggrin 

Bombardier cancels C-Series

no big crashes  biggrin 



Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4537 posts, RR: 41
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4340 times:

This thread has been moved here from the Civil Aviation Forum. There is already another thread in this forum on much the same line:

Happy New Years!/2006 Predictions (by EWROwznj00 Dec 31 2005 in Aviation Polls & Prefs)

Please use that thread to continue this discussion.

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
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