AirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2832 posts, RR: 41 Posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5338 times:
I thought it would be fun to have a thread for predictions for the new years. Given how insane the last year has been (I don't think anyone on this board could have believed for a second that Boeing would snag almost 1000 new commitments for planes, Airbus 800) I expect next year won't look anything like these predictions, but it's fun anyways.
Some pie in the sky predictions to get things started:
I think that we will see a slight drop in order numbers, but that will be picked up at the end of the year by a resurgant American Market.
I believe that all of the major US carriers will launch long term order commitments near the end of next year. In particular look for UA to eliminate the remaining Boeing 737s with A320s and to order more 777s and possibly 787s to replace the 747s and older 767s. UA will ramp up their DEN hub with new international flights and more traffic and make serious inroads in Independence Air's markets.
US airways will get a lot of good press around the middle of the year around how well the merger is working. Near the end of the year, it won't be so obvious. No major new orders will come other then the already agreed on A350 order.
DL won't stay in bankruptcy long. As they emerge, expect a large order to replace the 767s and the older 737s. Boeing will accept these new orders in lieu of the huge backlog DL already has.
AA will place a larger order to replace the A300s.
NW will start putting pressure on both Airbus and Boeing to come up with a next generation replacement for the A320 and B737.
Details on Boeing's 737 replacement will start to solidify later on in the year.
Virgin Atlantic and British Airways will both get more nervious as parts of the openskies agreement start to get implemented. Both companies look to merge with a smaller US carrier.
F9, FL, and B6 will continue looking at short distance international flights. One of them will also start to look at doing a LHR flight.
The A380 will pick up a few more orders, mostly from China seeking to keep a tit for tat relationship with both the EU via Airbus and the US via Boeing.
EK will shock the Aviation world by being the launch customer for the 787-10X.
SQ will complete the Boeing Trifecta for a large widebody plane.
the 787 will continue to outsell the A350 at a 3:2 ratio.
The A320 will continue to outsell the 737 at a 3:2 ratio.
The 777's dominance over the A340 will continue.
Airbus will launch two new A340 models to counter the pressure from the 777.
Oil prices will go down, but no where near as much as people are expecting. It will also spike higher then it did this year.
KC135R From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 728 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5298 times:
Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2): Ooops. I was thinking that AA's A300s were at DL for some reason.
No prob - I figured as much.
Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter): Oil prices will go down, but no where near as much as people are expecting. It will also spike higher then it did this year.
From what I have read, analysts (who are not always right, of course) predict oil will peak in 2006 - the consensus seem to be around $60/barrel - and then remain high, but relatively stable for several years.
However, there are so many factors that seem to influence oil prices, I don't see how any prediction on that can be too reliable.
FriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4131 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5280 times:
I think UA will order 748s and 788s in 3Q or 4Q in 2006, I don't see more 777s (possibly a few -200LRs, but doubtful).
I also expect another order from QF for 777NGs.
DL won't make it out of bankruptcy this year.
KC135R, I think I agree that NW's chances aren't looking very good given what's going on. I think the labor situation is MUCH worse than it was at UA and may be enough to bring down the airline (especially if the pilots strike over the NewCo thing).
Also, Independence Air will cease operations in 8 days.
B6 expands to BDL and operates flights to FLL to make me happy
DL's song switchover goes over suprisingly smooth, but they lose pax on the NE-FL route as MD88s replace songs 757s...DL is forced to put the 757s back on the NE-FL routes and has to cut key west coast routes to cover the international expansion.
NW goes down the toliet and gets absorbed into CO and DL...
then DL emerges from bankruptcy and announces its new LCC...Sing, to fly NE-FL routes!