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Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?  
User currently offlineKieso From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 34 posts, RR: 0
Posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5993 times:

I'm not sure if Song will show the other LCC that the big carriers can make a difference. But I do know that it's got Jetblue wondering if JFK can be over taken by a big carrier again.

It's great to watch it all come into play!

All these airline wars to be the biggest and best are why I love airlines!

Thanks, Airliners.net!



Me is Kieso_I love to fly and it shows! YA
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMark777300 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 388 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5941 times:

Not to be too opinonated about this, since I am a devoted fan of jetBlue, but I don't believe that Song will outdo Jetblue in the long run. This is nothing different than Delta express, Metrojet, Continetal Lite, and whatever else there was before. It's difficult for a major to emulate the operations and success associated with LCC's like Southwest or evn jetBlue. The 757's I believe are still not the right aircraft to be used for LCC operations and i still feel that jetBlue and Southwest have the upper hand in customer satisfaction and on-time peformance. Plus, I still can't see how Song would be as successful while still physically being part of Delta. It's a formula that just hasn't been the most successful in the past. Besides, what will Song do to counter attack jetBlue when it begins operations with it's ERJ-190's to new smaller underserved destinations? This is not People Express all over again, jetBlue is something different, something radically new to the aviation world. We'll see what happens next, but Song has a tough battle ahead.

User currently offlineAsuflyer05 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2371 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5909 times:

Song may be able to encroach on some of B6's JFK to Florida routes but their ability to do so in other markets, especially transcons is fairly limited. It'll be a cold day in hell before Delta rolls out Song aircraft on JFK-LAX, & -SFO routes. These are routes that operate with widebody frequencies and dedicated BusinessElite transcon cabins so there is definetly a premium market that they are capturing.

I agree with Mark777300. The 757s are probably too big and DLs costs are too high to effectively compete with B6 especially from JFK into secondary airports such as OAK, SNA, and LGB. I find it hard to believe Song could operate similar routes with a larger aircraft and at higher costs yet still turn a profit. I believe CO has suspended EWR-OAK twice now and they were operating it with 737s once a day and then once a day seasonally.

Just my $.02


User currently offlineNavion From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 5870 times:

I have noticed in virtually all of the threads about JetBlue that almost no-one has mentioned the huge factor facing JetBlue in the future and that is their deferred payments on their aircraft. These deferred payments are very large and will significantly impact JB in the future. It's these same deferred payments which are giving and artificially low cost picture of their operations presently. JB does a good job at their present routes but when their costs come due, a more realistic picture of them will evolve which is a good airline but not and infallible one. Also, their route structure is but a fraction of the majors so their on time performance and customer satisfaction are naturally higher as they have a small fraction of the opportunities to upset passengers with route delays, weather delays, lost baggage etc.. I like JetBlue but I also see this love affair with them as unrealistic as they have not demonstrated running in a realistic cost environment and they really are a small carrier without all of the problems of the majors. One final thing, I forsee more labor problems/cost once the honeymoon is over (after maybe 10 years or so) when labor will want "more of the profit pie". Just my opinion.

User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4242 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5808 times:

Navion - your point would be good except that there are no deferred payment costs on JetBlue's airplanes.
According to my source which I feel is pretty reliable, the aircraft costs are evenly spread over the life of the aircraft. The only deferred "costs" are maintenance. It has been widely said in here many times that JetBlue is going to suffer once they have to pay for maintenance as their planes age. I am not so sure - obviously this is a cost that will go up but I believe B6 has done thorough analysis of projected mx costs and still come out way ahead of the curve. This might sound like a stretch but I don't hear anyone complaining about Southwest's mx costs - and they have much older planes on average.

To me, Song is not going to work and I think it will be going or gone by the end of the year. Just my prediction - I have been challenged several times in here for this, but I stand by it. Song is a flawed business model, even if the product itself is not too bad and a general improvement over Delta.

I think JetBlue needs competition to stop them becoming complacent, and surely Song has stolen some passengers away. But for every passenger who flies Song (and pays $99 to go from Ny-Florida), they are probably doing more to hurt Delta than JetBlue!



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16822 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5801 times:

Song is not in existence to "beat" Jetblue, DL launched Song to protect DL's market share in places like NY and Boston. DL has been flying NY-FLorida LONG before Jetblue (or even Airbus) were around, DL launching Song is just a bandange to stop the slide of business on these routes to B6.




Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineJetblue15 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5766 times:

Jetblue has absolutely nothing to worry about. For thoses of you that know JFK, all you see morning, noon and night is Jetblue. 90 flights and soon to be well over a 100 by this fall. You cannot find the customer service that Jetblue provides. During the blackout, snowstorms, and 9/11, we provided our customers as well as other airline customers with hotels, food, ect. During the blackout we were the only airline flying close to 100%. Song wasn't even anywhere near that. The model for Song is do it the way Jetblue does it and its funny when customers tell us this. Good luck Song, your gonna need it.






racecar spelled backwards spells racecar
User currently onlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6526 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5755 times:

"You cannot find the customer service that Jetblue provides"

Yes you can, but the only other airline that offers that is based in Denver. jetBlue is not alone in the good customer service category I can assure you. Probably better than Delta/Song, but no better than Frontier.  Smile


Steve/MSY


User currently offlineAirlineFanatic From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 222 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5745 times:

A quote from David Pflieger, Song VP Ops during the initial startup... "It's not a question if we can compete with JetBlue; the question is whether JetBlue can compete with us"

Fast forward a year later and Song has clearly been shown that JetBlue can and has competed and has the winning formula evidenced by their withdrawl and reduced frequency on B6 routes. Good luck when Blue starts LGA service this Fall!

Re: expansion at JFK by DL to DEN, SJU, SDQ, SAN (all B6 markets); Has anyone else noted that MAINLINE DELTA was given these routes and not Song, makes you go hmmmmm to the Song formula

Re: Navion's comments on the "JetBlue Holiday" and lease payments. Because this comes up EVERYTIME there is a JetBlue thread... I like Rich, have also confirmed with sources VERY close to the situation who has confirmed that lease payments are standard and DO NOT have large balloon payments at anytime throughtout their term. Maintenance will increase and has been accounted for as such.

Many great executives work for Blue (ex-People Express, Virgin, Southwest, Continental, etc). They make informed decisions and respond quickly to market changes combined with a loyal following that has made them the largest airline at JFK (in terms of pax boarded) and with a continued enhancement of their product (XM radio, PPV TV)... I see a great future for their business.


User currently offlineStarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1126 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5727 times:

My family and several members of my department fly Song all the time. It is a real improvement over mainline service, and they tell me that the flights they are on from FLL, MCO and Fort Myers have all been packed.

I don't know if they'll "beat" Jetblue, but everyone seems to like the service Song provides now. I hope Delta keeps it, even if they don't expand it.

Since Jetblue is officially an LCC, our corporate travel department won't authorize using them or reimburse for flights on them. So no one I know will be using them.



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineRichardw From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 3746 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5721 times:

I was at JFK last night for my JFK-LHR flight on AA. The presence of JetBlue is amazing, I did manage to spot a Song Aircraft and the former TWA terminal. Song may be able to survive at JFK, but beat JetBlue? now that is unlikely.

User currently offlineN6376m From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5715 times:

Starrion,

Why wouldn't your corporate travel department use LCC? What's the logic?


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5710 times:

These are routes that operate with widebody frequencies and dedicated BusinessElite transcon cabins so there is definetly a premium market that they are capturing

...is that why they're primarily 757s now?  Big grin


User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 34
Reply 13, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5684 times:

Continuing on from where STT757 left off, the point of Song was to act as a deterrent to Jetblue, to stop Jetblue coming into DL strongholds. Song doesn't need to beat Jetblue, and really doesn't need to be profitable, it just needs to have low enough prices to make it not worth Jetblue spending the effort and money to try and crack a new market. So far this policy has worked well with DL chasing Jetblue out of Atlanta, and it looks like it is working in other areas also.

J


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5684 times:

JB's CASM (cost per available seat mile) fell 2.9% in 1st Quarter 2004.

JB's RASM (revenue per available seat mile) fell 7.9% in 1st Quarter 2004.

So, JetBlue's unit revenues are falling more than twice as fast as its costs. This trend has been ongoing for quite a while. How will JetBlue continue to prosper if this trend continues??

Now before all the JetBlue fanatics attack me, I'm just asking an honest question. I'm NOT saying that JetBlue is going to die.



User currently offlineAsuflyer05 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2371 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5659 times:

...is that why they're primarily 757s now?

I never said they were primarily widebodies but I also got them confused with UA who are putting the transcon business cabins in the 757s. I need to stop posting in the middle of the night. Then maybe my posts will end up saying what I want them to say.  Smile


User currently offlineAirlineFanatic From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 222 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5657 times:

FlyPNS,

JB RASM fell in 1Q as 1Q is usually a difficult quarter (as it was for all airlines) and JB had 53% capacity exposure to the transcon war and will correct the problem in the upcoming future.

The question regarding how will it work in the future... JB has noticed that this is not sustainable so you see arrival of new markets - Domincan Republic and departure on relying on large frequencies from stronghold cities - OAK and instead SJC and SMF.

Also, PNS regarding CASM decreasing AT ALL... there was no other airline which posted a decrease in CASM (non-labor)and this even shocked airline analyst - lowest cost leader decreasing. Also, let's keep in mind, JetBlue had industry leading Operating Profit Margins again this quarter  Smile

[Edited 2004-05-04 17:17:21]

User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5616 times:

Also, PNS regarding CASM decreasing AT ALL... there was no other airline which posted a decrease in CASM and this even shocked airline analyst.

What??? Virtually every Airline saw its CASM decrease in the 1st Qtr of 2004...most saw their CASM's decline far more than JBLU.



User currently offlineAirlineFanatic From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 222 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 5596 times:

Sorry PNS, I guess the thought behind that was NON-LABOR CASM... as JetBlue didnt axe labor to see the CASM decline.

User currently offlineStarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1126 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 5530 times:

N6376m:

The logic has been that LCC's didn't offer service levels sufficient for frequent business travelers. Then there's the issue of the frequent overbooking and higher possibility of getting bumped on LCC's. When a traveller has to get somewhere, it's important and worth paying for the majors. I think there were also issues in obtaining discounts equal to what the majors were offering. Jetblue is a little different from the average LCC, but as far as our travel group is concerned we don't do Jetblue.



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineBigphilnyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 4076 posts, RR: 54
Reply 20, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5469 times:

"Has anyone else noted that MAINLINE DELTA was given these routes and not Song, makes you go hmmmmm to the Song formula"

Did you ever think Delta went mainline with these because Song's 757s were not the best aircraft for passenger loads on this route? Are they using 757s on it? Or maybe something more practical like a 737 until they see the they can fill larger planes.

I'm not sure, but Song may not even have enough aircraft to handle such expanision, so maybe DL need sto make these mainline routes until they get more.

-Phil



Phil Derner Jr.
User currently offlineJetbluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2972 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5365 times:

A quote from David Pflieger, Song VP Ops during the initial startup... "It's not a question if we can compete with JetBlue; the question is whether JetBlue can compete with us"

Ha! I wish this guy could have pressed the fast forward button to see what's going on tonight...

Now for the question: Will Song be able to beat JetBlue? IMO, no. Song is run by an airline that is financially unhealthy (yes, $383M 1Q loss is unhealthy), and therefore, a promotion will cost Song/DL much more than it would cost JetBlue.

Also, Song is a bit late in the game. Delta Express was a piece of crap, and therefore people switched over to the high-quality JetBlue brand. Now, people really don't see a reason for switching back to a Delta brand. Your average Joe (such as I) most likely would not see any logic is switching airlines once you've found one that meets your standards and even exceeds it.

Now let's look right now:

Song at JFK has been successful so far, but JetBlue hasn't lost much. JetBlue still operates high frequencies to Florida, and we all know that JetBlue won't operate a flight unless it has good loads. Now look at BOS. JetBlue is ADDING flights there that compete with Song, so that must be some sort of good sign...

Do I think Song is able to beat JetBlue? Definitely not. Do I think JetBlue is able to beat Song? No. Both airlines are HIGHLY competitive and would never give up without a war (not battle - war).

These are my thoughts,

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineGoingboeing From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4875 posts, RR: 16
Reply 22, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5330 times:

Song is not in existence to "beat" Jetblue, DL launched Song to protect DL's market share in places like NY and Boston

Which is why Song will fail. If I were an airline exec, I could care less if I am the leader in "market share" in any given market. I'd be #2 or #3, as long as I was showing a profit on the route.


User currently offlineWindowSeat From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1311 posts, RR: 57
Reply 23, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5247 times:




Song's existence is indeed to protect the Florida stronghold. DL felt the need to protect it's market share. This is the right strategy. If I was an airline exec, I would be very much concerned about keeping my market share. That at least means they are flying with you. Then you can start to bring up the prices, or stay competetive. But if you're losing market share, then everything goes downhill from then on. Song's strategy will work, just give it some time. The other thing is that Song is really not worried about the 190s as long as they don't encroach the Florida routes. All DL is worried about at this time is protecting it's most profitable state, Florida.

cheers






I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
User currently offlineAirlineFanatic From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 222 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (10 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5220 times:

Window... the 190 will encroach FURTHER on Delta/Song Florida traffic as more point-to-point service from Blue will be viable.

Imagine 2nd tier Northeastern cities to FL or even better 2nd tier FL cities that require a connection in mega-ATL receiving nonstop 190 service to top O&D markets... it's going to be a competitive environment.

RE: Bigphilnyc... SDQ/SJU are 757 and possibly SAN, DEN is 738 and B6 increases to 2 A320 in response.


25 Aa757first : At the end of this month, I'm flying Song for $87 PHL - JFK - FLL. That's a pretty amazing price. Yes, I know they are losing money on that route. My
26 ROSWELL41 : I have heard Song is doing quite well on Bradley International Airport (BDL) to FL. Jetblue is nowhere to be found at BDL yet.
27 7E72004 : Song is going to go the way that Delta Express went...OUT. I think it is a waste of money to start an airline w/in an airline. Just take certain fligh
28 SoAmSky : Of course it will!!!!!!!!!!!
29 Richierich : Never say never, but I highly doubt JetBlue will ever fly JFK-PHL. Too short. Maybe PHL-Florida or something, but even that is unlikely with Southwest
30 Jetbluefan1 : I think JFK-PHL will be served once B6's 190's come in. There would be a pretty big void to fill if US were to go down. JetBluefan1
31 Richierich : Keep in mind that New York and Philly are only 100 miles apart and air carriers are also competing against the car and against Amtrak on that route. T
32 Cmckeithen : Fly CO....thats what I say. You will never go wrong with them.
33 SHUPirate1 : Richierich-People taking the train between New York and Philadelphia aren't taking Amtrak...they are taking a combination of New Jersey Transit and SE
34 SuperDash : Song will be gone by the end of the year. Grinstien hates Song. He may keep the routes, may keep the all coach 757s, but it will again be Delta Air Li
35 COEWR2587 : Oh come on. Jetblue all the way!!!! Better service, better IFE, more legroom and cheaper prices. Jetblue could kill Song IMO.
36 CactusHP : What about Amwest?? America West is a good airline with dirt cheap prices, what about them?
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