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Which Mergers Do You Forsee?  
User currently offline767-332ER From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2030 posts, RR: 10
Posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3626 times:

There is some talk of mergers to likely occur in the industry. From a worldwide perspective, which mergers do you think will likely occur in the next 5 years (short-term)?

I see something between Iberia and BA occuring, ala KLM-Air France.
I would not be surprised to see United and the new US Airways try something due to the recent press releases about US Airways not discarding merging again with a legacy. United seems like the best fit.


What others do you see?


Twinjets...if one fails, work the other one twice as hard!!!
28 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 665 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3618 times:

Quoting 767-332ER (Thread starter):
I would not be surprised to see United and the new US Airways try something due to the recent press releases about US Airways not discarding merging again with a legacy. United seems like the best fit

(Donning Armchair CEO cap)This can't happen, UA tried this back in the 90's and it got shot down by the DOJ for Anti-Trust. The only way this could happen is if the "new" US goes back in the toilet and is on the verge of Chapter 7 (liquidation). In terms of fleet/hubs the merger would work out. Here's my list of possible mergers.

Spirit/Air-Tran: If Spirit wants to grow, and the same with Air-Tran, a merger would be greatly beneficial to the two carriers who don't have a good foothold in the US Airline industry.The fleets are in the ballpark with some MD-80/717 on either side, but with AirTran having 737 and Spirit with A320 family, this could become a little troublesome. Hub locations are ok with ACY/ATL, but a westward expansion would be beneficial.

United/Northwest:NW is a carrier in trouble, BK isn't going all that well for them, with the MX dilemma and other problems. Both have comparable short-range fleets with the exception of the infamous DC-9's. (A-320 family), and with the 757's for medium haul, and the 747's for long-haul. Of course UA has 767/777 while NW has A330, but that could be worked out. Also NW's two hubs aren't in a great placement for UA, but I suppose they could keep MSP. With both carriers strong in Asia and the the Midwest, this could be a very good merger waiting to happen.

Frontier/jetBlue:Although Neelman isn't a fan of mergers, after MorrisAir, I think this is a merger waiting to happen. Fleet commonality is great (A320 family) and because F9 has a strong presence in the West, coupled with B6's eastern dominance we could see a good match. B6 got a lot of bad press after their dreaded MX stops for fuel in-route West Coast-JFK. F9 seems to have nailed down the problem with intercontinental flying with the A319. Both operate the same business model: LCC with leather seats/TV and point to point service while having a central hub.

Unlikely Mergers: (size)
AA/DL
UA/US

Food for thought,  scratchchin 
(Removing Armchair CEO cap)

Cheers from BDL and BAF,  wave 
DeltaGuy767



A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6633 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3613 times:

I am totally against completely frivolous mergers such as DL/NW and UA/CO. They do not make any sense at all.

Although this is wishful thinking, I think that a Delta/Continental merger would make sense, especially in terms of fleet integration. A United/US Airways merger would also make sense, as they both operate Airbus narrowbodies, the 767 and 777 fleet could easily be replaced by A330s/A350s.



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineB6pilot2b From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3599 times:

I think B6/F9 would be great. Definitely the same type of service (live TV), aircraft, and outlook and would really help both airlines out.

User currently offlineDesertAir From Mexico, joined Jan 2006, 1474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 3580 times:

I am also not in favor of large carriers merging to creat even larger carriers.
For the sake of competition, I would like to see smaller carriers like Spirit, AirTran, Frontier, Sun Country and Jet-Blue form an alliance. This would motivate people to fly these carriers and give better reward options.


User currently offlineNitrohelper From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 469 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3565 times:

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Reply 1):
NW is a carrier in trouble, BK isn't going all that well for them,

NWA in trouble, don't they have more cash & assets than Delta ?
What isn't going well? scratchchin 
NWA has been winning with the Judges over the unions. They continue to improve their fleet (A330 vs.DC-10), and have ordered 787s. Flights are now being added.
Also they are not "bankrupt" that is Chap.7 , they are using Chap.11 to "clean-up" their union contracts & work rules. I haven't heard much from the mechanics union that was going to put NWA out of business. fight 
I think that according to the number of A net posts, the DC-9s are very "famous" & paid for, , , instead of infamous. goodvibes 


User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 23
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3559 times:

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Reply 1):
United/Northwest:

This merger will happen when Bin Laden runs for vice president of the USA.
ORD,DTW,and MSP are too close. NW has lots of local DTW boardings as does UA at Chicago......meaning those two hubs will stay....which is the reason why
this merger will never happen.
I still like NW and USAIRWAYS and airTran and UA(the minnow swallowing the whale) which is not new in the American business world. This would be a death blow to DL and airTran/UA picks up those pieces and grows even more.
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineDeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 665 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3557 times:

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 5):
NWA in trouble, don't they have more cash & assets than Delta ?
What isn't going well?
NWA has been winning with the Judges over the unions. They continue to improve their fleet (A330 vs.DC-10), and have ordered 787s. Flights are now being added.
Also they are not "bankrupt" that is Chap.7 , they are using Chap.11 to "clean-up" their union contracts & work rules. I haven't heard much from the mechanics union that was going to put NWA out of business.
I think that according to the number of A net posts, the DC-9s are very "famous" & paid for, , , instead of infamous

I guess I should use more than a grain of salt when taking others words on these forums. It seems that whenever I read a forum about NW, it always contains bleak outlooks and shady deals about the MX guys.

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 6):
This merger will happen when Bin Laden runs for vice president of the USA.
ORD,DTW,and MSP are too close. NW has lots of local DTW boardings as does UA at Chicago......meaning those two hubs will stay....which is the reason why
this merger will never happen.
I still like NW and USAIRWAYS and airTran and UA(the minnow swallowing the whale) which is not new in the American business world. This would be a death blow to DL and airTran/UA picks up those pieces and grows even more.

I'm sorry I don't quite follow you on that line of thinking?  confused 

Cheers from BDL,  wave 
DeltaGuy767



A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 23
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3556 times:

A single carrier would not keep mega-hubs in MSP, ORD and DTW. Geographicly too close together to transfer people...good local boardings but ya need the transfers too.
How many pax can you board in NYC and Boston and have them change planes at ORD, MSP AND DTW and make money with full planes? You cant...so one of the three has to go.
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineFireFly From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 91 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3553 times:

Of course categories like this one beg for conjecture. Here's another one...

How about AA and AS? AA is limited in the west (few flights up and down the coast, most flights that originate in western cities route thru DFW, then back). For decades AS has succesfully focused on the western US. I don't know how their few west to east routes are working, but their primary business is from Mexico to Alaska.

I don't know that this is a marriage I would like to see (the more competition the better for the customers) but I DO know that I have absolutely no expertise whatsoever in regards to airline mergers, so I would be curious to know others' thoughts on why this merger would be a good/bad idea.



"Bury me at sea, boys; where no murdered ghosts can haunt me" MacGowan
User currently offlinePhilly From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 3547 times:

ACK! Please no talk of a UA/NW merger. What a nightmare that would be. The rumor mill at NW has grown cold with the talks of a NW/DL or NW/CO merger. With DL bleeding money and things still out of control I don't see anyone looking to merge with them for now. NW is trying to get a grip on costs and certainly does have the courts favor (as Nitrohelper stated so well). The MX tried and failed to get more out of NW and I think if the FA's continue in the same direction they might end up continuing to picket while their replacements fly for them.

Too crazy though at this time for any of the top 5 to merge (IMHO). I do think a Air Tran/Spirit merger might fare well for both of them, especially with Spirit continuing to chip away at the NW DTW hub. Time will tell.



Carpe Diem!
User currently offlineAirtanzania1 From Tanzania, joined May 2006, 89 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3534 times:

I dont see any mergers happening just because I dont know the airline industry as much but I hope any an airline like KL or BA can help Air Tanzania just like how KL did with KQ. Yes, I know SA tried to but the guys TC were just not working with them. I hope they wont be ignorant if another offere comes up.


Awe. 737-200.
User currently offlineDeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 665 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3533 times:

Quoting FireFly (Reply 9):
Of course categories like this one beg for conjecture. Here's another one...

How about AA and AS? AA is limited in the west (few flights up and down the coast, most flights that originate in western cities route thru DFW, then back). For decades AS has succesfully focused on the western US. I don't know how their few west to east routes are working, but their primary business is from Mexico to Alaska.

I don't know that this is a marriage I would like to see (the more competition the better for the customers) but I DO know that I have absolutely no expertise whatsoever in regards to airline mergers, so I would be curious to know others' thoughts on why this merger would be a good/bad idea.

That line of thinking gave me an idea. How about CO/AS? Both operate a multitude of 737's and with CO's sparse service in the west, that would make a great merger. The same could apply with AA, but with CO the fleets fit much better.

Cheers from BDL,  wave 
DeltaGuy767



A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
User currently offlineWrighbrothers From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2005, 1875 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3532 times:

I don't see BA fully merging with any airline soon

Quoting Airtanzania1 (Reply 11):
but I hope any an airline like KL or BA can help Air Tanzania

BA, did help Air Sudan, atleast with their engineering, they were having troubles, so BA sent out some guys from engineering to help get the books in shape, give assistance etc.
The problem is, that those days are probably gone, why would a big airline waste money to help a small airline half a world aways?
Wrighbrothers



Always stand up for what is right, even if it means standing alone..
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6517 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 3529 times:

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Reply 1):
BK isn't going all that well for them, with the MX dilemma

What maintainence dilemma are you talking about? BK not going all that well?? They have made an operational profit the last 3 months.

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Reply 7):
It seems that whenever I read a forum about NW, it always contains bleak outlooks and shady deals about the MX guys.

I hope these forums aren't ypur source!!


User currently offlineMattRB From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1624 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 3528 times:

Straying into the Canadian market..

WestJet & CanJet: WestJet lacks east coast penetration. CanJet lacks west coast penetration. Both fly the 737 (tho CanJet flies the older -300 & -500 models), so that would give them some marginal fleet commonality.

Just throwing out some speculation with absolutely no hard evidence to back it up  Wink



Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible.
User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3118 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 3526 times:

Quoting FireFly (Reply 9):
How about AA and AS? AA is limited in the west (few flights up and down the coast, most flights that originate in western cities route thru DFW, then back). For decades AS has succesfully focused on the western US. I don't know how their few west to east routes are working, but their primary business is from Mexico to Alaska.



Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Reply 12):
That line of thinking gave me an idea. How about CO/AS? Both operate a multitude of 737's and with CO's sparse service in the west, that would make a great merger. The same could apply with AA, but with CO the fleets fit much better.

Hell No! AA would just buy up AS and then immediately cancel all the routes, just like they've done with every other merger they've done. The only thing they'd do with AS would be to take over the Mexico operation, and then use the rest of the planes to phase out some of their MD-80's. CO would probably leave things in tact a bit more, but I doubt they'd keep operations in SEA at the same level as AS.

I think the real merger possibility is US/NW. Perfectly overlapping route maps and fleets (Mostly Airbus with some 757's thrown in for good measure). MEM and PIT get the ax.


User currently offlineDeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 665 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3489 times:

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
I think the real merger possibility is US/NW. Perfectly overlapping route maps and fleets (Mostly Airbus with some 757's thrown in for good measure). MEM and PIT get the ax.

Hmmmm. I wonder what the DOJ would have to say about that one.  scratchchin  However, if one of the carriers were to be extremely close to Ch. 7 and BK, then we could see tha one happen without DOJ interference. Keep in mind, the DOJ will probably only let legacy carriers merge if they were in extreme financial trouble. (Ex:TW/AA)

Cheers from BDL,  wave 
DeltaGuy767

Stop the NW Flack  white   flamed 



A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
User currently offlineN43W79 From Canada, joined Jul 2006, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3472 times:

I'd love to see a couple of majors liquidated. Chapter 11 is far too convenient and these behemoths need and incentive to become more competitive. I'd also love to see liberalization of the industry to allow for multi-national airlines. It would be great to see an airline like QF-SQ, or BA-EK, or BA-AA... airlines with true global networks.

User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4125 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 3384 times:

Quoting N43W79 (Reply 18):
I'd love to see a couple of majors liquidated. Chapter 11 is far too convenient and these behemoths need and incentive to become more competitive. I'd also love to see liberalization of the industry to allow for multi-national airlines. It would be great to see an airline like QF-SQ, or BA-EK, or BA-AA... airlines with true global networks.

If such were allowed, how about a DL/AC merger? I'm sure on the financial end of it American Express would just love that one!



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlinePiercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3341 times:

As far as legacies go:

UA: I could always see US/UA, but the gov't would never allow it. Although it would add PHL, LAS, PHX and CLT to IAD, ORD, DEN, LAX, and SFO, the fleet commonality on long-haul would be interesting. CO would be interesting, adding EWR and IAH, but short-haul would be a mess with fleet and CLE would get the ax. NW and AA are the proverbial snowball in hell. DL would be interesting, with adding ATL, but CVG and SLC would be of no use and it would be a financial disaster.

US: Other then UA, I can only see one, NW. With fleet commonality, hubs fitting in (MSP, DTW, CLT, LAS, PHX, and PHL, with MEM as a domestic hub), and NW in Asia and US in Europe, it would be a good merger. Only problem would be no West Coast presence, so include AS or make SEA a hub? AA, CO, and DL would pass because of fleet and/or hub issues.

AA: If American got anyone, it would be a TWA style buyout. Nobody is in that dire straits, so noone at the moment.

CO: Hmmm... The 757 leader of Europe... Uh oh, a certain ATL airline is trying to copy, and it's a fellow SkyTeam member!!! That's it, DL is dead! With the fleet commonality and hubs interlining (CVG or CLE, EWR, ATL, IAH, and SLC), and more 757s and 777s for the taking, CO would become the powerhouse EU and would still have some planes to start/restart Asian routes. NW wouldn't even be considered.

DL: see above

NW: see above

As far as Legacies & LCC's...

AS & ??: AS is a prime target to merge, be bought out. Why? Other then UA, US and DL, NW, AA, and CO don't have a West Coast "hub". NW could use it and rebuild SEA to it's former glory, CO could use it for an Asian expansion and to aquire some 737s, and AA would probably just take the planes and f*** up SEA in the form of STL.

F9 & UA and FL & DL: Why not? UA wants DEN as a domestic hub and look who is taking the domestic passengers! Plus with the arrival of WN, this could get rid of a powerful competitor. As far as FL & DL, same story except flipped. FL is in good financial shape, DL is a wreck. Could FL pull off a HP and buyout DL???

NK & AA: Again, buy, sell planes, grab routes, screw everyone else.

Hmm...

BMI & ??: I don't know who, but it's just waiting to happen. BMI is screwed up and management is about as stupid as it can get. Someone just end the poor airline.

NZ & QF: Been talked to death, probably will never happen.

That's it, all of course, IMHO.



Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6633 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3335 times:

If Delta and Continental were to merge, I think the wiser decision would be to keep the Delta name. The Delta name is more recognizable than Continental. When US Airways was bought out by America West, the US Airways name, rather than the America West name, was kept due to greater recognition.


The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlinePiercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3334 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 21):
If Delta and Continental were to merge, I think the wiser decision would be to keep the Delta name.

No way. CO is equally as known as DL on cities they share. They should keep the CO name because of the better financial stability and the fact their name has stayed out of the news with the word bankruptcy attached to it



Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6633 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3333 times:

Quoting Piercey (Reply 22):
the fact their name has stayed out of the news with the word bankruptcy attached to it

So why didn't the merged US Airways/America West keep the America West name?



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlinePiercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3327 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 23):
So why didn't the merged US Airways/America West keep the America West name?

Simple, America West is a domestic airline with no brand recognition internationally, while CO and DL are both legacy carriers that are known very well brand wise.



Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
25 FireFly : Whoa, you might notice I did not say that I would be excited by, or support such a merger, only that it does, in fact, make some sense. In the past,
26 Post contains images Nitrohelper : Now that NWA has arranged their chapter 11 exit financing, maybe the question should be " who will Northwest buy in the future "? How about they buy D
27 Alitalia744 : Oddly enough, that won't happen, especially since recent outlooks have changed. Good luck bowling shoe...
28 Acjflyer : Personally I think the mergers need to stop. Before you know it competition will be a word of the past and all of our fares will start to increase. Ag
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