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Topic: Step Back In Time...Views Of Aviation From 1996...
Username: Ulfinator
Posted 2004-05-22 18:05:46 and read 2197 times.

I was going through some stuff at my parents house and came across my copy of the April/May 1996 copy of Air and Space Magazine which was there 10th anniversary issue. Too go along with this they made had various people make predictions for the next 10 years out to 2006. Some of the were correct. Others were not.

"Too much-discussed options for the coming decade are a new supersonic transport and an 800-passenger airliner. In fact, neither will be built." - T.A. Heppenheimer, author, Turbulent Skies: The History of Commercial Aviation

Well so far there isn't another supersonic transport but the A380 could have the ability to have 800 people crammed on board, eh?

"...Passengers don't like hub-and-spoke; the prefer point-to-point routes..." - T.A. Heppenheimer, author, Turbulent Skies: The History of Commercial Aviation

Well one way is Airbus' vision and the other is Boeing's. We will see who wins out there.

"The most important competition of the next 10 years instead will pit the Boeing 777 against the Airbus A330/340."

That is pretty spot on.

Just thought that was interesting.

Topic: RE: Step Back In Time...Views Of Aviation From 1996...
Username: Startknob
Posted 2004-05-24 21:03:03 and read 2064 times.

@Ulfinator, that's a great one, thank you to share this interesting backlight with us  Wink/being sarcastic

Concerning the 800-seater:
In a A380-900 (streched version of the initial -800) maybe there will be a all Y-class configuration, e. g. for domestic routes in Japan, that maybe get 800 people on board. Would be otherwise really Sardine canning, IMO.

Concerning the supersonic transport:
This is seemingly far away for mostly economical reasons. Primers on that are e. g.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1575002
http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1568853

Concerning the point-to-point routes:
Boeing goes directly after that with the 7E7 in its two versions for the SR/LR and the 773ER/772LR for the ULR. Airbus goes with the A345 for the ULR and with the 33x/343/346 and even the 380 for the SR/LR. So I don't see why Boeing and Airbus have different visions on this one.

Concerning the competition question:
I'm not so sure, if the "most important competition" really was/is between the A330/340 and the 777. We've seen enormous amounts of 737s and A318..A321 sales in the last ten years. Assuming that a decision in the narrowbody fleet may be also a gateway drug for the widebody fleet, I would say that the narrowbodies are still the most important market - also in terms of revenue for the manufacturers.

Just my 2 cent.
Regards,

Kojak

Topic: RE: Step Back In Time...Views Of Aviation From 1996...
Username: Nosedive
Posted 2004-05-24 21:10:42 and read 2016 times.

Not that the magazine could predict what happened on the tragic day of 9-11, but did it predict a downturn in the market? Also, it would be interesting to hear if they had predicted the demise of TWA....and possibly USAirways (though I hope not)


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