Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/1785114/

Topic: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: KarlB737
Posted 2004-10-19 21:14:26 and read 7220 times.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4CF3A2D5%2DB0D0%2D4077%2D9F42%2D6A423FF46C4C%7D

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Danny
Posted 2004-10-19 21:15:55 and read 7139 times.

Sad to say but we were right.

"It's clear to us that FLYi's business plan is not working," UBS analyst Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. "We believe the chance of (a) FLYi Ch. 11 is about 65 percent."

Should have stayed with United. Or allow Mesa takeover.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Rjnut
Posted 2004-10-19 21:24:13 and read 7063 times.

..and not too mention ongoing distribution issues!

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: UnitedTristar
Posted 2004-10-19 21:37:56 and read 6975 times.

Yea the timing was all off...not the best time to try and start a carrier...they are burning through their united money faster then they can withdraw it!

very sad for them indeed

-m

 Sad

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Ny-jfk-lga
Posted 2004-10-19 22:23:11 and read 6762 times.

Sure, listen to what one news article says. Articles also said we couldn't handle 300 daily departures from Dulles with 87 CRJ's. Aren't we doing it? "we were right"? Who's 'we'? I hope its not everyone on the board that's predicting our demise. I'll believe it when I see it in my company email. For now, We're just trying our best to stay in the game, people seem to think we're doing a great job. If its one thing I think we've got, is smart management, I'm certain they'll begin to work on solutions for these problems sooner than later, unless they have been already. By the way, when would be the best time to start a new carrier? Is there anyone on here at all that supports us rather than saying how sad it is for us? Remember, its sad for all the other airlines too, not just us.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Bicoastal
Posted 2004-10-19 23:37:22 and read 6518 times.

300 daily departures with 87 aircraft.....and how many people on board each flight??

P.S. Don't count the three crew members.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Boeing757/767
Posted 2004-10-19 23:40:51 and read 6493 times.

According to the traffic results released today by Indy Air, Sept. had a load factor of 44.4 percent.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Ny-jfk-lga
Posted 2004-10-20 01:01:05 and read 6312 times.

The flights I've been on have had at least 30 to full capacity pax, and that is excluding flight crew. I must say this month seems to be somewhat better than Sep.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: FriendlySkies
Posted 2004-10-20 01:18:23 and read 6205 times.

I'll be the first to admit I don't like FLYi and nothing will make me (it's like Cubs vs Cards, I'm a Cubs fan and a United fan, so it isn't ethically right for me to like the Cards for FLYi). But Ny-jfk-lga has a point. These so-called "analysts" have made some bad calls lately, and I'm sick of listening to their BS. Didn't they say UA would be dead 1.5 years ago? And US wouldn't make it out of the first bankruptcy? Oh, and DL should be in Chapter 11, right? These guys are great for a laugh, but pathetic when it comes to actually predicting something correctly...

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Falcon Flyer
Posted 2004-10-20 02:04:03 and read 6054 times.

Is the fat lady clearing her throat ??

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Ny-jfk-lga
Posted 2004-10-20 02:09:57 and read 6026 times.

Let me tell you, the fat lady has such a bad cold, LOL. But we'll see how well she gets, hopefully she doesn't.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: UA772IAD
Posted 2004-10-20 02:19:34 and read 5972 times.

Not to mention the fact that UA would reduce its IAD operations--- never in a million years: UA has always been a heavy presence at Dulles and it always will be, it is their KEY US-Europe hub and is a strong hub in the network for domestic and international operations. P.S. I don't see how DL's or US's bankruptcy would help Indy since UA's operations take up most of the domestic operations at IAD.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: JoFMO
Posted 2004-10-20 02:38:54 and read 5900 times.

As I see it flyI would't suffer from an bankruptcy of DL nor did they from US's. Only if one of it's rivals UA,US or DL would fold it could help flyI. But I don't see anyone of them going chapter7 early enough for flyI.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Midway2airtran
Posted 2004-10-20 02:42:08 and read 5883 times.

I believe Indy Air has come up with a great product. I would not rule them out yet, first they are just starting to implement this, which was well known that it would be a major undertaking. Second, leadership at Indy made it obvious that the first year would be a transition year where they naturally would be losing money to get things going. Fuel prices have brought another challenge, but all airlines face that same fate. The key word is "Transition"! Third, their network which only covers a small area will be growing in the future as the A320's get introduced to the fleet; the load factors will obviously rise as they add Florida, trans-cons and other more tourist heavy markets. Finally there is the fate of US Airways which is very uncertain and might bring more opportunities for Indy in the near future. I try to look outside the perspectives of scared stockholders and analyists. Heck, that tumble may make it a great buy now. The sky ain't falling yet!

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: US Air/TWA Fan
Posted 2004-10-20 07:32:13 and read 5549 times.

Why is Indy Air flying so many frequencies?
Why not reduce frequencies on routes and shift capacity to new cities?
This would help that 44% LF.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2004-10-20 07:40:14 and read 5538 times.

Why was the September LF almost identical to August's LF? Usually there's a big drop from August to September. Perhaps IndyAir is having a relatively good September or had an awful August?

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Flyibaby
Posted 2004-10-20 08:02:52 and read 5514 times.

US Air/TWA, Indy is shifting frequencies into other markets. Fact is that they can only open but so many new cities at a time.

Maverick, loads are up in fact. With the opening of key cities as CLT and MCO, loads are on the up and up.

Friendlyskies, thanks for your words. Most of us at I-Air carry no hard feelings towards UA. In fact, we appreciate the chance that UA gave most of us with our jobs in the first place. Honestly, I think a codeshare with UA would benefit both UA and I-Air since we still operate most of the east coast cities.

For all of you who think we should have gone the MESA route, keep in mind they are in trouble with UA over on-time and reliabilty performance. So that is just ignorant to bring that up.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: BNE
Posted 2004-10-20 09:44:58 and read 5416 times.

There were quite a few posts started about Indy Air, not sure why everyone thought they should start their own topic.  Nuts

So have taken some of those links from deleted threads and included them here.

Burnies28 added the following link.
http://stocks.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?guid=%7BACD25CE9%2DE52F%2D4BBB%2DA40A%2D91B320E1067C%7D


JoFMO added the following links.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041019/airlines_stocks_1.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4CF3A2D5%2DB0D0%2D4077%2D9F42%2D6A423FF46C4C%7D

KCRWFlyer suggested.

I think these guys have gone at it all wrong. Their gameplan is great, as is their service. I just think they overdid it.

First of all, its ok to have 35 cities to announce, but not all in about 4 months. That even made the transformation more hectic as other airlines had to fill the void so quickly. Shittle america, skywest, Asa, comair.. These carriers had to go into overdrive to pick up the slack.

I think they should be getting around to the 3rd round of cities right about now. they should have established the first round of cities first. And maybe 14 flights per day is a little too much..? And the cities they did use 14 per day on, was already heavily saturated by the carriers with hubs at either airport.

I think they deployed too much of the fleet at once, they in a way had no choice because of all that they owned. Im sure they didnt want 50 crj's sitting around waiting their turn. They should have slowly expanded and taken the aircraft off of the routes they currently served for Aca, only as they needed more. This would have also provided them with a little supporting revenue while they got on their feet. i know they started with more than any other airline, but they need to start making money soon because that cant last forever.

I think some of the city selection was a little bit strange too. Dont they fly to 4 New York area airports? JFK/EWR/HPN/ISP? Possibly 2 but 4? Thats one example of overdoing it.

And routes to smaller places were overdone also. I believe in frequency and convience as much as the next guy, and i normally defend my home airport like a tiger, but 6x flights on just one airline is more than weve ever had anywhere. They might have picked thee wrong hub also.. I know they already had one there, but IAD is a competitive market. CRW already had 7x daily to IAD between US and UA.

Theyre jumping into what is already a well served, and competetive market. They also did this with many other markets.

I think a Hub at another airport would have succeeded better. Then again, i cant think of a better place to have one, so maybe it was the best they could do...

Does anyone want to put in their 2 cents? thats mine.

So lets continue with the one and only Independence Air Bankruptcy Thread.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Sorry to the people who work at flyi it isn't looking good.  Crying




Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Voodoo
Posted 2004-10-20 11:41:14 and read 5312 times.

10 years ago the analyst in question was just another armchair CEO on the boards moderating misc.air-transport.industry or somesuch on USENET. Since then a finance degree and a UBS job have put him in a position of `power' with investors. But, as one example, saying that the 328Js were parked up, shows he didn't research the facts fully: there are still 328Js flying for Delta Connection. And time is running out for Delta to assume Chap.11....IIRC in November Delta has to assume the leases if they are not Ch.11. ANd they can't/won't go Chap.11 'just' to avoid those relatively puny (for Delta) leases. And thats just one example in his case. Its interesting to speculate who buys stock that is driven down by these analysts remarks......

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2004-10-20 16:20:28 and read 4663 times.

I find these "anal"ysts to be disturbing myself........but Mr. Market doesn't seem to like it either, and FLYI is down about 40% today.......cheap, but how cheap is cheap? Usually when a stock breaks below the buck level, its chances of climbing back up (no pun intended) is small......The Market does see FLYI as potentially going bankrupt.

There is TOO much overcapacity in the system...its as simple as that.......I feel for the employees, but unfortunately, thats how the world works.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Nearord
Posted 2004-10-20 16:31:02 and read 4589 times.

Ashcroft is the same analyst who predicted a 90% chance that the mesa takeover would happen. So by his estimate of 65%, we should definitly be profitable by jan. I find this to be funny. There is nothing different about today than yesterday or the day before. we shall see the numbers when they come out on the 27th. Then we can start the sky is falling threads.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Rjnut
Posted 2004-10-20 16:34:00 and read 4568 times.

Once again, Ifly has a huge connecting complex at Dulles creating hundreds of city pair opportunites from many small to mid size markets, and they all but invisible to the corporate travel segment unless somehow they stumble upon Ifly website or a travel agent takes the intiative to go there as well.

Yes there is over capacity, but load factors everywhere else are at least 60's if not 70s and 80s...I wonder what load factor is on parallel services thru Dulles on UAX.

They are basically invisble and will remain so until GDS participation is used..This is not Jet blue, serving highly populated markets , in very popular routes! where a website alone will suffice!

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Danny
Posted 2004-10-20 16:52:31 and read 4456 times.

There was one airline that tried to fly CRJs and offer good service at low cost. It was DUO Airways.

View Large View Medium

Photo © Jonathan Simmons



They also were flying previously for a big carrier and decided to go independent. They stick around for a few motnhs with load factor similar to Flyi and then they dissapeared.


[Edited 2004-10-20 16:54:31]

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Bicoastal
Posted 2004-10-20 16:57:25 and read 4416 times.

Load factors on the UAX (United Express) flights I've been on and observed at Dulles are excellent. It helps to have United's/Star Alliance's national and international network to feed and feed from. Independence can't offer any of this.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Mikey711MN
Posted 2004-10-20 17:13:39 and read 4293 times.

Regarding the 328s, wouldn't the pending deal with Skyway Airlines help the situation? That is, as I understand the situation and subsequent postings about it, iAir would be affected by a DL Chapter 11 filing because DL would likely walk away from the 328s and leave them to iAir/ACA to handle, which they obviously have no interest or finances to do. So is this evidence that Skyway is merely sitting and waiting for Chapter 11 to occur, thus plummeting the 328s to rock bottom value only to sweep them up then?

-Mike

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2004-10-20 17:27:52 and read 4202 times.

Here is the load factor number from the article:

"The airline reported late Tuesday that September traffic rose 9.7 percent over August as the number of seats offered increased 12.5 percent. But its load factor -- or percentage of paying passengers -- was 44.4 percent, down from 45.5 percent in August. "

here is ANOTHER problem which could be the undoing of FLYI....

"Independence Air's business plan was written when crude-oil futures were trading at $30 a barrel, UBS added. The airline has not hedged its fuel requirements to safeguard against rising oil costs."

If true, they could be in trouble......  Sad

and the stock is down > 50% now...on greater than 10X daily volume, does not look good......

Actually, I'm thinking about picking up some cheap shares.if it goes, oh well!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4CF3A2D5%2DB0D0%2D4077%2D9F42%2D6A423FF46C4C%7D

Topic: Indy ArRE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concern
Username: WesternA318
Posted 2004-10-20 17:47:22 and read 4110 times.

Look guys,

I was one of the original consultants on the deal. What we came up with is NOTHING to what the management is doing. We told them they could do everything they wanted as long as the followed some key rules, such as:

* Over-expanding too fast
* Being completely independent of alliances or code-shares. (We were even talking to AirTran for them)


As far as i'm concerned, the management just took too big a bite and is now thinking things a little more clearer. As for the analysts, *$&*k them, I didn't listen to them when I invested in either Airtran or Frontier, and I refuse to listen to them when it comes to the airlines, because they have never RUN an airline for themselves. An airline isn't like any other business where accountants can tell you what's good or not. All the airlines that have had accountants run them (i.e...PSA, TWA, Pan Am, Reno Air) have disappeared from the scene. Analysts and Airline Accountants can Kiss my A**. Airline need to be run by AIRLINE people.

Topic: RE: Indy Air Tumbles 26% Over Fresh Concerns!
Username: Voodoo
Posted 2004-10-20 18:00:08 and read 4010 times.

There was one airline that tried to fly CRJs and offer good service at low cost. It was DUO Airways

DUO was never low cost nor pretended to be. They had premium service on routes with little or no direct competition. I avoided them because their fares were too high.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/