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Topic: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: PANAM_DC10
Posted 2005-01-07 02:23:53 and read 10090 times.

I posted a couple of threads last year and it is quite interesting to see how the final order book looks for 2004 compared to what was expected at the start of the year. Boeing have updated their website and final sales were 42 which was as follows:

4 x 772ER AirNZ
2 x 772ER KLM
6 x 772ER UFO (Thai)?
2 x 773A CX
4 x 773ER EK
5 x 773ER Etihad
1 x 773ER UFO
18 x 773ER SQ

I assume the 6 772ER UFO are for Thai and the single 773ER for a leasing company. As much as Boeing didn't get their 200 7E7 by year end they must be pleased with the 777 program for 2004. This saw it's best sales year since 2000, EIS has seen the 773ER exceed expectations, Production began on the 772LR, the 772LRF program was launched and the 500th 777 delivered.

So I thought I'd ask what's ahead in 2005 for the 777? 772LR first flight. But what orders can we expect? EIS has stoked good interest in the 773ER and here are who I feel may order the 777 this year.

EK, They have 9 options on 773ER and appear to be going to exercise some
QF, They have an RFP out but the competition will be fierce!
LH Cargo and the 772LRF though decision could be some time away...
Cargolux may order the 772LRF
AM, This may be via a lessor
China Airlines? A346 rumours so maybe another fierce competition in play

Boeing today announced that deliveries will increase in 2005 and 2006 so who is likely to order the 777 this year? Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on anything.

Regards

PANAM_DC10

P.S Sorry this is mainly a question about the 777 series so in the interests of fairness Airbus has booked 43 firm A330 & A340 series so far for 2004. There are another 23 "open" orders yet to be booked ie 13 A346 for VS. If anyone would like the full breakdown look at the list that Teahan kept updated here
http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1853743

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-07 02:32:11 and read 9984 times.

and the single 773ER for a leasing company

...for ILFC on behalf of Air France.




772LR first flight. But what orders can we expect?

SQ ordering the 772LR is pretty much a question of "when" instead of "if".

EK will also be watching its flight tests quite closely.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: PANAM_DC10
Posted 2005-01-07 02:54:44 and read 9932 times.

Thanks ConcordeBoy

SQ ordering the 772LR is pretty much a question of "when" instead of "if"

Yes, given their response to the 773ER EIS, i'ts a good chance.

EK will also be watching its flight tests quite closely.

What about EK and further 773ER orders. Ever since Farnborough there have been rumours of a larger direct order from Boeing. More than the 9 options. Any further talk of this?

Also, will the 772LR be exhibited at the Paris Airshow this year?

Regards

PANAM_DC10

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2005-01-07 03:13:41 and read 9885 times.

It would be stunning if SQ were to not order the B777-200LR. My guess is 5 orders plus 5 options, but more is possible. Do they need them only for North America or do they need the extra cargo lift elsewhere e.g. to Europe?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: 9V-SVC
Posted 2005-01-07 03:33:38 and read 9831 times.

I know that EK has leased 26 777-300ERs right ? In addition to the 26, they have purchased more 773ERs , how many did they order, Well they replace the current RR trent 777-300 with these new beauties ?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-07 03:42:56 and read 9804 times.

Also, will the 772LR be exhibited at the Paris Airshow this year?

Dunno, though at this point, I see no reason why on Earth it wouldn't be.




they have purchased more 773ERs , how many did they order

4



Well they replace the current RR trent 777-300 with these new beauties ?

In terms of fleetwide capacity, they'll immediately replace the A343s.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: WhiteHatter
Posted 2005-01-07 04:12:18 and read 9718 times.

In terms of fleetwide capacity, they'll immediately replace the A343s.

I would have thought that was a no-brainer too. The A343 is a complete cuckoo in the EK nest as it has no engine commonality to the rest of their operation.

Do you have any idea how long Boeing leased them to EK for? I seem to recall it was a 5 year deal tops....tied to 777 delivery schedules

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Ghost77
Posted 2005-01-07 04:47:42 and read 9671 times.

AM, This may be via a lessor

We need to hear something from AM sooner or later! According to some info I have on my hands AM will take delivery of their first 777 on February of 2006. So I'm sure this month or at the beggining of February we will know something extra about this issue! I know they're considering 3 orders + 2 options for B772ER.

Ricardo APM

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-07 08:35:12 and read 9513 times.

My guesses are:

CX for 777-300ER
QF for 777-300ER and 777-200LR (hoping....will be fierce)
AM for 777-200ER via ILFC
QR for 777-200LR
AI for 777-300 and 777-200LR
KU for 777-200LR
CA for 777-200ER and possibly 777-300ER
BR for 777-200F
SQ for 777-200LR

I think LH Cargo will wait but will eventually order the 777-200F.

Here's hoping for another great year! I guess I would be extremely happy if all of the above actually happened but I think they are all possible.

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Amirs
Posted 2005-01-07 08:39:23 and read 9497 times.

i know el al is/was looking to lease a 5th 777.
though i think they gave up, and are now into leasing a 767 - 300  Sad. I hope atleast this one will have PTV's.

I wonder if EL AL will look into ordering 777LRF instead of 744F. They has been talks for years, that it is time they replace their AGING 747's.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: 9V-SVC
Posted 2005-01-07 09:19:12 and read 9447 times.

I love both the 777s and the A345/A346 . Hard choices but this is my guess

As for my predictions , among the lists:
BR , SQ and LH will go for the 772LRF.
SQ: 772LR
QF i think more likely they will go for the 773ER , i rule out the 772LR.
AI: Will place more orders for 772ER and perhaps 773
KU: They will go for A346
CA: A346 most likely
MH: 773ER

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Greaser
Posted 2005-01-07 10:36:14 and read 9358 times.

QF i think more likely they will go for the 773ER , i rule out the 772LR

If Boeing milks more miles from the 777-200LR, and if it could do LHR-SYD, SYD-LHR, there's no reason why Qantas won't buy the 777 sooner or later.


BR , SQ and LH will go for the 772LRF
I thought the BR 772LRF was already made?? Which was why they delayed their deliveries??. About SQC, my thoughs exactly. Though they do have a new cargo fleet compared to many others, I wonder whether they'll go anything smaller than the 747 in terms of longe-range flights.

AI: Will place more orders for 772ER and perhaps 773
AI have never placed any direct orders for any 777. I'm guessing they're giving it a shot right now, but there's still alot of bumps on the 777's roads in Air India, all due to political factors.

MH: 773ER
Given how much sucess the 777 has provided for MH, it is highly likely.

QR for 777-200LR
Qatar Airways has yet to order a single Boeing aircraft, and I believe the 7E7-9 has a better chance right now than the 777-200LR, unless of course Boeing does not move up the production of the -9.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-07 14:52:15 and read 9120 times.

Do you have any idea how long Boeing leased them to EK for? I seem to recall it was a 5 year deal tops....

Nope. They expire at the 9th year.




QF i think more likely they will go for the 773ER , i rule out the 772LR.

Considering their geographical position and (to a far lesser extent) the likelihood that the A388 will not (at least initially) live up to its promised specs.... if QF were to select the 773ER, it'd only be a matter of time before they secured the 772LR as well.



Qatar Airways has yet to order a single Boeing aircraft, and I believe the 7E7-9 has a better chance right now than the 777-200LR, unless of course Boeing does not move up the production of the -9

Both before and after the advent of the 7E7 as well as their latest A340 order, al-Baker is quoted as saying that the 772LR is a plane Qatar would "like to have in our fleet", but basically on the contingency that they get an overwhelmingly good deal from Boeing.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: PANAM_DC10
Posted 2005-01-07 20:02:41 and read 8123 times.

Thanks for all the responses everyone, much appreciated.

The777Man

Have you heard any more on a potential order from Libya? They apparently expressed an interest late last year in response to the sanctions being lifted.

Regards

PANAM_DC10

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Junior1970
Posted 2005-01-07 22:47:12 and read 7418 times.

SQ is definitely waiting for the 772LR to be ready.
The A345 was just a temporary solution. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I always wondered why SQ, with a good heart towards boeing, would fly with airbus, although I know they had some A310's in their fleet some years ago. (I flew one DPS-SIN in 1996 and didn't like the plane to good...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy )

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Hirnie
Posted 2005-01-07 23:24:01 and read 7257 times.

LH Cargo won`t buy any B777LRF in 2005(other than I expected and hoped for). They are pretty happy with the MD11 and said they will start to think about new aircraft around 2007.


Regards

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2005-01-07 23:59:32 and read 7106 times.

SQ bought the A340-500 because it could do the job at a profit and there were no alternatives available at the time. It was not a mistake. The B777-200LR will do the job better at a higher profit, so SQ is expected to replace their A340-500s with B777-200LRs.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-08 00:30:32 and read 6973 times.

...and thus make it SQ-F.U.#2 to the A340  Big thumbs up  Big thumbs up

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: 9V-SVC
Posted 2005-01-08 04:22:33 and read 6604 times.

I wonder what will happen to some of the Boeing fans if SQ exercised the options to buy 5 more A345s. I will love to see their faces. Big grin

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-08 08:14:10 and read 6500 times.

PANAM_DC10:

Good point I forgot about Libyan Arab (LN)! I think that they may place an order but perhaps they will pick up the 3 ex-UA non-ER 777s that are still stored ? Unless they plan a huge expansion of their network, they really don't need any ER aircraft.

Another likely candidate I forgot is TAAG Angola (DT) that announced an interest in the 777 last year. I think they might order two or three 777-200ER.

Any predictions, ConcordeBoy ?

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-08 08:26:01 and read 6491 times.

...the usuals:

SQ for 772LR
EK for 772LR (despite their initial rejection)
CO may take up their final 772ER option if they get China, but iffy
KQ might order a single additional 772ER, particularly if their MIA plans come to fruition
QR/EY may select the 772LR as well, in addition to their former A340 orders.
ILFC/GECAS may order any given set of models, as they're running low, but interest still abounds


--dont see any orders for the A-market birds, except perhaps very small add-ons here or there.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-08 08:42:26 and read 6476 times.

Thanks for your insight, ConcordeBoy!

I don't really see any direct orders for non-ERs either except add ons. I meant to write the I think AI will get 777-300ER and not -300. Perhaps they will also get the -200ER and LR in a direct order ?

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-08 17:09:54 and read 6257 times.

Perhaps they will also get the -200ER and LR in a direct order?

I've learned never to hold my breath waiting for that airline to do anything worthwhile... just be pleasantly surprised  Big grin

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: PANAM_DC10
Posted 2005-01-08 17:12:57 and read 6250 times.

The777Man

Thank you, I clean forgot about TAAG and I would agree that we may see 2-3 772ER ordered by them. As for CX is there further talk about a potential 773ER order from them? Early last year the rumours were very strong and the debate on this forum was quite robust though since then they seem to be taking more used 744s so I'm not too sure on them.

ConcordeBoy

Thanks again for your answers; I'll ask one more question if I may.....

ILFC/GECAS may order any given set of models, as they're running low, but interest still abounds

Agree. Neither Lessor has any outstanding 773ER available for lease and as you've already pointed out the single 773ER UFO was for AF. ILFC has only 3-4 772s on order that aren't placed. I feel we could see both ILFC & GECAS place orders this year.

This leads me to ask about the GECAS LoI for 8 772LR is there any chance that we may see this converted to a firm order? Last year it looked like GECAS were going to convert to firm but I think AI was one of the airlines they were pitching to and they're still deciding what to order/lease, I assume the other carrier may still retain an interest, no?

Also, there were rumours on both this forum and Yahoo order group that AF were interested in another 5 773ER, has anyone heard anymore on this?

Regards

PANAM_DC10




Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-08 17:59:16 and read 6203 times.

PANAM_DC10:

I haven't heard anything more about the CX order but I heard that they are ready to expand again and I think that they will order 777-300ER.

Haven't heard anything more on AF getting any more 777-300ER other than rumors.

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-08 18:43:58 and read 6172 times.

Last year it looked like GECAS were going to convert to firm but I think AI was one of the airlines they were pitching to and they're still deciding what to order/lease, I assume the other carrier may still retain an interest, no?

My hypothesis...

I thought for sure we'd see those aircraft going to AI and SQ. AI issued the LOI for 3 C-market aircraft, and GE (fresh from touting how greatly they plan to accomodate new customer SIA) could've peddled those remaining five birds to SQ... the exact number needed to replace those A345 things.

Who knows, might still work out that way. No tangible corroboration for it at this point though.



I haven't heard anything more about the CX order but I heard that they are ready to expand again and I think that they will order 777-300ER.

CX appears to be on some'n of a roller coaster ride in respect to the 773ER, ever since late 2002. Hopefully, they'll bite the bullet and go for it.

Thing is, even despite their antiquated ETOPS aversion; they could still fly those birds to Europe/etc, thus moving more 4holers for overwater operations.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2005-01-09 03:23:27 and read 5988 times.

Don't have much time, but will introduce 3 airlines not talked about yet, which may lead into more discussion:

Jet Airways
Hainan Airlines
UPS

Regards,

Hamlet69

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-09 07:06:31 and read 5900 times.

...what about HMY-- though I know they've talked about 767 and A330 just as much, at one point they were gung-ho 777?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: QFA001
Posted 2005-01-09 11:07:12 and read 5834 times.

Well they replace the current RR trent 777-300 with these new beauties ?

In terms of fleetwide capacity, they'll immediately replace the A343s.


No, they won't. The A343s are on 9-yr leases, so will be around until 2013. All the B773ERs, including those ordered last year, will be delivered by end-07. If anything, some of 'em are a shot at replacing their A332s or B772s.

SQ bought the A340-500 because it could do the job at a profit and there were no alternatives available at the time.

No, they didn't. SQ was offered the -200X forerunner to the -200LR. They rejected it in favour of the A345 when Boeing hoped they would be a launch customer.

It was not a mistake.

Not for SQ, but it was for Boeing. They went back to the drawing board and came up with a 15,000lb heavier -200X.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Dalecary
Posted 2005-01-09 12:13:55 and read 5796 times.

And I'll throw another one into the ring: AC. They seem to be completely reevaluating their WB fleet at the present. The 7E7/350 for 767 seems quite likely. I wonder if they are looking at the 772LR/773ER v 345/346???
And can they afford it?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-09 18:21:25 and read 5703 times.

No, they won't. The A343s are on 9-yr leases, so will be around until 2013. All the B773ERs, including those ordered last year, will be delivered by end-07

The A343s were ordered specifically as a stopgap until 773ER deliveries. No one said they'd be gone the moment those aircraft arrived.



No, they didn't. SQ was offered the -200X forerunner to the -200LR.

Uh, yeah they did. What SQ rejected beforehand was the 771C.

Aside from that, the A345 was already available for firm order post 1997, while Boeing was busy flinging the defunct original 772X concept at SQ/MH/QF/NZ.



I wonder if they are looking at the 772LR/773ER v 345/346???
And can they afford it?


AC has at times seemed to show genuine interest in the 777... but considering their financial position as well as already being customers for A345 and [disconcertingly delayed] A346s-- wouldn't pin much hope in them.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Milan320
Posted 2005-01-09 18:53:48 and read 5668 times.

AC has at times seemed to show genuine interest in the 777... but considering their financial position as well as already being customers for A345 and [disconcertingly delayed] A346s-- wouldn't pin much hope in them.

Not only that but according to Milton, the 777 is his favourite plane (or was).
His big beef was Boeing's sales team vs. Airbus sales team, and one of the reaasons they chose Airbus over Boeing was the sales support, etc.

/Milan

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: QFA001
Posted 2005-01-09 23:13:20 and read 5563 times.

The A343s were ordered specifically as a stopgap until 773ER deliveries. No one said they'd be gone the moment those aircraft arrived.

I didn't realise omission speaks louder than implication.  Nuts

Uh, yeah they did. What SQ rejected beforehand was the 771C.

No, it wasn't. The 1997-98 SQ ULR competition was between the A345 and B772X. SQ was offered the -100X twice. Once, in 1995-96. At that time, it wasn't so much that SQ rejected the airplane, but that another potential launch customer -- AA -- did. Second, in 2000, when Boeing dusted off the -100X to compete against the A330-100X to replace the SQ A310s. Of course, it picked B772ERs, anyway.

Aside from that, the A345 was already available for firm order post 1997, while Boeing was busy flinging the defunct original 772X concept at SQ/MH/QF/NZ.

Right, so Boeing offered -200X to SQ.  Laugh out loud

That it became 'defunct' later is besides the point. Boeing more or less offered SQ the same delivery timings for the -200X as Airbus was the A345. It was after Boeing lost that they again had to delay the 777X and pumped up its MTOW another 15,000lb.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-10 00:26:57 and read 5501 times.

I agree with Hamlet69 that UPS could very welll place orders for the 777-200F sometime this year. I find it less likely for Hainan (HU) and Jet Airways (9W) will order the 777. HU will need to start some new longhaul flights first and even though 9W will be allowed to fly to international destintions, I see them as a more likely candidate for used 777 (ex-UA) and they are available right now.

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-10 01:18:51 and read 5472 times.

SQ was offered the -100X twice. Once, in 1995-96.

Hence my statement "beforehand", as that was the only incident relevant to this discussion


It was after Boeing lost that they again had to delay the 777X and pumped up its MTOW another 15,000lb

...for official launch.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: NightFlier
Posted 2005-01-10 01:20:27 and read 5467 times.

The 777 is a good aircraft and I think it has proved itself to be good. That is what makes me think about Boeings proposal to build the 7E7, if they took the ideas for the internal aspects of the plane and implemented them into the 777 I think even more airlines would buy the 777. What do you all think ?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-10 01:31:45 and read 5455 times.

ideas for the internal aspects of the plane

...such as?

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: DfwRevolution
Posted 2005-01-10 01:36:20 and read 5448 times.

That is what makes me think about Boeings proposal to build the 7E7, if they took the ideas for the internal aspects of the plane and implemented them into the 777 I think even more airlines would buy the 777.

I doubt the 7E7 cabin would do much (if anything) for 777 sales. The real bonus about the 7E7 cabin is the higher pressure and humididty, and these are impossible to replicate in the 777's aluminum fuselage. I personally doubt Boeing will offer a 772ER-NG, but that's beside the point...

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: NightFlier
Posted 2005-01-10 01:38:56 and read 5438 times.

Im sure most of us have seen the proposed ideas for the internal layout for the 7E7. Why not take those ideas and incorporate them into the more new models of the 777. I think it would be a good idea give the 777 that futuristic look  Big thumbs up

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: QFA001
Posted 2005-01-10 01:54:35 and read 5425 times.

SQ was offered the -100X twice. Once, in 1995-96.

Hence my statement "beforehand", as that was the only incident relevant to this discussion


Bzzzt. It's irrelevant. The -100X had nothing to do with the competition discussed (A345 vs B772X). You agreed with Zvezda that there was no alternatives for SQ when it ordered A345s. You were wrong. For once.

Besides, in 1995-96, SQ didn't reject the -100X. AA put the knife in before SQ could. SQ rejected the -100X the second time around, in 2000.

...for official launch.

Launch smaunch. Boeing targeted SQ, offered similar delivery dates, and lost.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: NightFlier
Posted 2005-01-10 01:58:18 and read 5420 times.

Ok it was a bad idea DfwRevoltion but it was just an idea.  Smile

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2005-01-10 22:18:05 and read 5297 times.

Okay, now I have more time, and since I've been asked by Lars to comment here, I will happily do so.

"I assume the 6 772ER UFO are for Thai and the single 773ER for a leasing company."

Yes and yes. As already mentioned, the UFO 773ER should be ILFC for AF (possibly AF directly, though).

"EK, They have 9 options on 773ER and appear to be going to exercise some"

I was informed a few months ago that EK was looking to convert their options, as well as place new orders for up to 27 -300ERs. It hasn't happened yet, and I've heard nothing new, so we'll see. Also, as CBoy stated, EK will be watching the -200LR progress. They have previously stated that they wanted to order more 777's, but Boeing's price wasn't right. Now that Boeing has made public claims to lowering production costs, it will be interesting to see what happens.

"QF, They have an RFP out but the competition will be fierce!"

Indeed. This one could go either way. QF prefers the 777 on a technical basis, but cost is always going to be the crucial factor. It is interesting, however, that ANZ stated that they chose the 777, not because it cost less, but because it would earn more. . .

"LH Cargo and the 772LRF though decision could be some time away..."

As already stated on A.net, LH Cargo have publically said a decision won't be made until late 2006 or 2007. However, if the economics are right, or the 777F starts selling well, they might move this up.

"Cargolux may order the 772LRF"

Been rumored numerous times, however, I haven't seen any movement here.

"AM, This may be via a lessor"

Hopefully we'll know more in a month or so, as our local reliable sources tell us a Feb. '06 delivery date.

"China Airlines? A346 rumours so maybe another fierce competition in play"

Boeing is clearly going to fight hard for this order. However, it will be difficult to surmount the operational benefit CHI has with A343 and A333s currently in the fleet.

"Also, will the 772LR be exhibited at the Paris Airshow this year?"

Despite my initial hesitation that it might not be, I've been told it definitely will, possibly setting some records on its way to the show.


"CX for 777-300ER"

I would place this at a 60/40 chance. There are some hurdles Boeing must overcome, but CX is definitely interested.

"QF for 777-300ER and 777-200LR (hoping....will be fierce)
AM for 777-200ER via ILFC
"

See above.

"QR for 777-200LR"

Perhaps, though I'm not holding my breath. A 7E7 seems more likely.

"AI for 777-300 and 777-200LR"

If AI moves, it won't be this year. However, I think a 777-200ER/-300ER order is in the cards. Of course, politics will be the deciding factor.

"KU for 777-200LR"

Unlikely, though anything's within the realm of possibility, I suppose.

"CA for 777-200ER and possibly 777-300ER"

See above.

"BR for 777-200F
SQ for 777-200LR
"

IMO, both a matter of when, not if.


"ILFC/GECAS may order any given set of models, as they're running low, but interest still abounds"

These issues will go hand-in-hand. After the leasing buying spree of the mid-/late-'90s, the leasors changed their policy and now only order aicraft they already have a leassee signed up for. Thus, as I've mentioned to Ghost77 before, AM's commitment to the 777 will probably not equal a new order from ILFC, as they can cover AM with current backlog (barely). Thus, if we do see a new leasor order, it means they already have a customer (which is all the better for us enthusiasts).

"...what about HMY-- though I know they've talked about 767 and A330 just as much, at one point they were gung-ho 777?"

HMY (now Harmony) needs to get their financials in better shape first. The last I heard, they were struggling, though not critical. IMHO, I think we could see some used birds go here, but nothing new for a while.

"The A343s are on 9-yr leases, so will be around until 2013. All the B773ERs, including those ordered last year, will be delivered by end-07. If anything, some of 'em are a shot at replacing their A332s or B772s."

EK is looking at the 7E7/A350 to replace the A332s, not the 773ER. The A343s are indeed on 9 year leases. However, that doesn't mean that some 773ER's and A346HGWs won't begin replacing them as they are introduced, which frees the A343s to inaugurate new city pairs. It also doesn't mean that the lease conditions can't be renegotiated. The last I heard, the first aircraft to actual leave EK service will be the early 772s, which might be converted into SF's and reintroduced into the EK Cargo fleet.

Now for the final airlines, a few quick words:

Libyan Arab - likely, assuming politics remain stable. I think we'll probably see an A32X (15-18) and 772ER (3-5) order.
TAAG - an LOI is likely, but anything more is debateable. OTOH, Boeing has proven to responsive lately to African airlines, so we could see a firm order should the money be there.
Hainan - Have talked about acquiring the 777 for sometime. I think 2005 could be the year a firm order is placed, in anticipation of 2008. OTOH, the 7E7 muddies the waters a little bit, and Hainan could take that aircraft as its new flagship instead.
Jet Airways - anything's possible in India. However, I've heard Jet has been talking to Boeing for some time concerning the 777, and it is once again a question of when, not if.
UPS - today's A380 announcement makes things here a little hazy. However, as these two aircraft (777F/A380F) don't serve the same niche, UPS will still be in the market. In fact, I would consider a 777F order now more likely, as UPS surely got a good bargain for the A380 by simply moving A300F deposits on to that aircraft. And since the A300F contract has now been amend, it reduces Airbus' options when they try and launch either a A332F, or A350F.

Okay, now I've got to run.

Hamlet69

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: QFA001
Posted 2005-01-11 00:51:53 and read 5203 times.

EK is looking at the 7E7/A350 to replace the A332s, not the 773ER.

Perhaps, perhaps.

Yet, EK intends to dispose of its first A332s prior to the A350 or B7E7 being available for delivery. Also, the timing of some of the intended A332 disposals overlaps exactly with some intended B773ER deliveries. So, what I said is possible. It might also be a coincidence.

The A343s are indeed on 9 year leases. However, that doesn't mean that some 773ER's and A346HGWs won't begin replacing them as they are introduced, which frees the A343s to inaugurate new city pairs.

I think it's fair to say that "fleetwide capacity" can be interpreted in multiple ways. I, apparently, chose the wrong one.

The last I heard, the first aircraft to actual leave EK service will be the early 772s, which might be converted into SF's and reintroduced into the EK Cargo fleet.

I don't have intended B772 retirement dates. That's why I said the B773ERs might be a shot at replacing some B772s. Judging by the age of the A332s as EK will dispose of them, the B772s should start to disappear in the next few years.

Edit: I forgot to mention tks to Hamlet for the great post.

[Edited 2005-01-11 00:57:14]

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-11 08:22:38 and read 5109 times.

Thanks Hamlet69 for your reply and your insight!

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: JMO-777
Posted 2005-01-11 11:47:03 and read 5047 times.

That are really some nice insights, Hamlet69!

I hope that LHC orders the 777F, so that there are some 777s based in Germany  Wink/being sarcastic

The 777F will also fit in UPS' fleet: 757PF,300F,11F,777F,380F
Perhaps the 11F will leave then, but that is only speculation.

So there are some cool "Events" in LBG this June. I'm sure that I cannot miss this year's Aerosalon.

GreetZ,
Jan

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2005-01-11 14:02:23 and read 4967 times.

I don't see the B777 being updated with B7E7 technologies. Boeing would do just as well to develop a new airplane from a clean sheet of paper.

It would be very easy for Boeing to stretch the B7E7-9 to have the same capacity as the B777-200. Whether range and payload could match that of the B777-200LR is in doubt, but I'm sure we'll see improvements in the range and payload of B7E7s just as we did from the B777-200 to the B777-200ER and then to the B777-200LR.

That would leave the B777-300 and B747 in need of replacement. WIDEBODYPHOTOG reported a Boeing study of a 270inch diameter composite fuselage aircraft. That would provide very comfortable 10 across seating (or 11 across with about the same spacing as 10 across on a B747) on the maindeck. My sketches show that upstairs would have a lot more space than the B777's upstairs crew rest facilities, but not enough to provide for satisfactory passenger seating. I do believe there would be enough room upstairs for crew rest (2-2 seating plus bunks), galleys, economy class lavatories, and passenger sleeping bunks.

Of course, Boeing is unlikely to develop a new large aircraft until after the B737 has been replaced.

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: PANAM_DC10
Posted 2005-01-12 13:08:10 and read 4810 times.

Hamlet69

Sorry I'm a little late but I too thank you for an excellent summary. I think that one thing is for sure after all the responses for this thread and that is that we'll see a continued rebound in widebody orders over the balance of the year. There will be some intense contests and quite vigorous debate on this forum which I quite look forward to in addition to a few surprise orders!

Anyway we appear to have an answer concerning AM check out this thread.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1900744/

Thanks again and regards

PANAM_DC10

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2005-01-12 21:57:47 and read 4686 times.

First, I'd like to thank everyone for the kind comments, and for such a decent thread (unusual here at A.net).

Second, I noticed there are a couple airlines that I didn't mention, but feel worth noting:

Malaysia Airlines: Have been looking at 773ER/A346 for some time now. AFAIK, the competition seems to have swung several times over the past few years. However, now that the airline seems to be getting healthier again, a decision could be made this year. I would tip the 777-300ER, however, this will be as close, if not closer, than Cathay.

Vietnam Airlines: Once again, I believe a follow-on order is a matter of when, not if. After flirting with the idea of a A330/340 order, Vietnam seems to be going all-Boeing for long-haul, and all-Airbus for short. IMO, a -200LR order is in the cards, though might not be this year.

Biman Bangladesh: I honestly don't know what's going to happen here. When we first heard about their fleet replacement policy, it was a decision in favor of 777's - used if they could find them. Then, it had suddenly become A332's. Now, the entire plan is on hold until they come up with a restructuring agreement. BTW - according to the news reports concerning Biman's financials, the plan was 1 A330 and 1 777.

Aer Lingus: I think we'll see the Irish carrier make a decision in the first half of this year. The majority of the order will either be 7E7 or A350. However, I've heard numerous times that, if Boeing is chosen, 777's will be included, if nothing else as a interim solution. If that's the case, I think we'll probably see them acquired through a leasor. That would mean a follow-on order from either ILFC or GECAS, as the latter have none to spare, and the former is now down to only 2, if AM can be confirmed.

Ethiopian: Doing well by all accounts, and are now rumored to be looking at 7E7/A350 as long-term replacement for their 767 fleet. However, ET also have 3 outstanding 777 options which could become firm if the airline wanted to expand capacity into Asia or Europe.

KLM/Alitalia: Now I'm just speculating, but both these European majors have open 777 options, including for the -300ER. Alitalia clearly is in no position to order, however, the end of the year might see a different story. I've been told KLM is closer (witness the recent follow-on -200ER order), and -300ERs would be a logical step (also been told they have looked at the -200LR, don't know whether it was pax or freighter, though I would imagine the latter).

Regards,

Hamlet69

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Hirnie
Posted 2005-01-13 01:49:56 and read 4587 times.

Thanks for the interesting insights Hamlet!

Regarding Alitalia I can only say that if they want to order more B777 or any other aircraft they will do. Their financal situation seems to play a minor role for this airline...

Birman`s plan showing 1 A330 and 1 B777 shows that this one will be politically influenced-very sad.

A KLM follow on order wouldn`t be a surprise.

A B777 for Aer Lingus wouldn`t that be a pretty big one for this airline?

Just some thoughts and questions...

Regards

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: The777Man
Posted 2005-01-13 08:23:42 and read 4461 times.

Thanks for your insight again, Hamlet69!

I agree with that VN is a very likely candidate for the 777-200LR and I hope that Etiophian Airlines firms up their options. Any idea when the options expire ?

Biman Bangladesh seems to a wildcard when it comes to the 777 and they will probably get second-hand aircraft, if at all.

The777Man

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: ConcordeBoy
Posted 2005-01-13 08:29:48 and read 4455 times.

agree with that VN is a very likely candidate for the 777-200LR

Perhaps. It'd certainly be a charm for SGN-California nonstop, but if they want to wait for their 7E7s, those could do the same. (just with lower payload).


I'd love to see the 772LR in any airline's fleet though, so all for it!

Topic: RE: Boeing 777 Orders For 2004 & 2005
Username: Carpethead
Posted 2005-01-13 09:47:38 and read 4436 times.

JL & NH may add more 773ERs as their 744s are going to be converted to freighters. Specifically, between 4 to 6 for each carrier with deliveries between 2006 & 2009.

CZ may add more 772ERs, maybe via ILFC. Numbers will be 2 to 4.

OS/NG order for 4 to 10 aircraft 772ER for A343/332 replacement and growth. They are slated to obtain two Aeroflot examples. OS group could standardize its long-haul fleet around 777s & 763s.


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