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Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Squirrel83
Posted 2005-08-08 09:58:45 and read 6932 times.

In the following article RyanAir States they will double their fleet over the next five years.

RYANAIR will double the size of its fleet over the next five years before settling in to maintain an annual growth rate of somewhere between 10pc and 20pc.

The claim, made by chief executive Michael O'Leary, will intrigue shareholders who have waited patiently for any news of a dividend payment.

http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1446807

How many aircraft do they currently have on order?

Who do you think they will purchase the rest of the aircraft BOE or EADS?(my guess is continuation with BOE.)

Do you think they will ever increase their aircraft size Like to a B757?

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Olympicbis
Posted 2005-08-08 10:02:05 and read 6919 times.

Quoting Squirrel83 (Thread starter):
RYANAIR will double the size of its fleet over the next five years

They won't be there anymore in five years...

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Oldeuropean
Posted 2005-08-08 10:20:05 and read 6861 times.

Wasn`t there a report that Ryanair will resell some of the 737s they get so cheap from Boeing. Perhaps they need new aircrafts more as a reseller than for their own fleet.

Axel

[Edited 2005-08-08 10:20:39]

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-08 10:56:05 and read 6790 times.

Olympicbis,

That's a very bold statement. What evidence do you have?

Passenger figures perhaps? Profit margins and cash flow figures maybe? Commercial performance in day to day trading in fuel, aircraft purchase and discount agreements with airports?

Come on, that was a very cut and dried statement, no ifs, no maybes.

Now back it up with some hard facts and solid trends that have led you to stake your reputation as a pundit so forcefully.

Squirrel83, at present there are 230 B737-800s outstanding for Ryanair.

Old European, there are no plans to sell any early B737-800s, by 2010, when MOL expects to be carrying more passengers than any other airline in Europe, the oldest aircraft will be only 11 years old and at just past mid life in cycles, assuming the original cycle regime isn't upgraded.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Maddy
Posted 2005-08-08 11:11:25 and read 6751 times.

Quoting Philb (Reply 3):
Old European, there are no plans to sell any early B737-800s, by 2010, when MOL expects to be carrying more passengers than any other airline in Europe, the oldest aircraft will be only 11 years old and at just past mid life in cycles, assuming the original cycle regime isn't upgraded.

He meant that they resell the new ones cheaper than listprice because of the discount they got for the hugh order.
I heard that too.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-08 11:40:50 and read 6677 times.

That may be the case, and you may have heard it too but, seemingly, MOL hasn't.

To quote the Daily Telegraph of February 25 2005 at the time an order for 70 737s was confirmed:

"Michael O'Leary, chief executive, said the order would enable Ryanair to keep growing at 20pc a year, increasing the number of passengers carried from a forecast 34m in the year to March 2006 to 70m by 2011.

The planes, which are due for delivery between 2008 and 2012, will create 2,500 jobs at Ryanair, almost doubling the current 3,000-strong workforce.

"We expect to become Europe's biggest airline for passenger traffic by 2010-2011, dwarfing BA and overtaking Lufthansa", Mr O'Leary said."

Growth such as that cannot be achieved by selling aircraft.
If he is to achieve his target he will need all the seats he can get by growing the fleet and maintaining the current levels of utilisation.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: MidnightMike
Posted 2005-08-08 11:41:02 and read 6676 times.

Quoting Maddy (Reply 4):
He meant that they resell the new ones cheaper than listprice because of the discount they got for the hugh order.
I heard that too.

I think that I heard that EasyJet was planning to do the same thing with some of their Airbus aircraft?

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Airblue
Posted 2005-08-08 12:29:22 and read 6596 times.

Plans are to sell older B737/800s when heavy maintenance is needed (check D) to keep maintenance cost low.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: CRJ900
Posted 2005-08-08 13:01:39 and read 6534 times.

Quoting Airblue (Reply 7):
Plans are to sell older B737/800s when heavy maintenance is needed (check D) to keep maintenance cost low.

Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Airblue
Posted 2005-08-08 13:06:25 and read 6520 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8):
Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

That's a good question, but the world is very strange......

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: MarBergi
Posted 2005-08-08 13:11:47 and read 6496 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8):
Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

Would it not make sense if the acquisition cost and maintenance costs were less than purchasing a new aircraft? I mean if RYANAIR were to sell them on at a cost that made sense then I can't see them having any problem getting rid of them.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Braybuddy
Posted 2005-08-08 13:16:00 and read 6486 times.

Quoting Squirrel83 (Thread starter):
Do you think they will ever increase their aircraft size Like to a B757?

Well, the 757 line is now closed so that's not an option, but I don't see them changing to any other aircraft than the -800s. Commonality makes sense for an airline like Ryanair and the -800 is neither too big nor too small, so you will see them flying with Ryanair for a long time.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: GAWZU
Posted 2005-08-08 13:26:36 and read 6460 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8):
Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

I'd be interested if you could tell me which airliners out there DON'T need a D check/heavy maintenance!

All aircraft undergo a series of checks during their lifetime. The following was taken from http://www.corrosioncost.com/pdf/aircraft.pdf -

"A typical maintenance program begins with nightly inspections of each airplane, which consists of a detailed visual inspection and a review of the pilot’s report. There are then scheduled periodic inspections:

A Check - This is a more detailed visual inspection conducted every 4 to 5 days after 65 to 75 flying hours. The interior and the exterior of each airplane is visually checked for general condition and any obvious damage, with particular attention given to areas where exposure to accidental or environmental damage may have occurred.

B Check - This check occurs approximately every 30 days. Specific access panels are removed for inspection. In addition to engine servicing, other safety and airworthiness items are checked as well.

C Check - This is performed every 12 to 18 months after the aircraft has flown about 5,500 hours. It is an in-depth, extended, heavy structural and maintenance check.

D Check - This is the most comprehensive inspection, conducted after 20,000 to 25,000 flying hours. The paint is removed from the exterior, and the interior of the airplane is completely stripped to allow for close inspection of all structural members of the fuselage."

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-08 13:52:21 and read 6423 times.

With a 14-16 hour utilisation per day (which is roughly what Ryanair aims for), the 737-800s will go around 5 years before a D check is needed. The first of the original batch 800s have already appeared in the new scheme and, being 5 - 6 years old have presumably had a D check before repainting.

[Edited 2005-08-08 13:53:25]

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Erikwilliam
Posted 2005-08-08 14:06:46 and read 6373 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8):
Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

if they are smart, they do the leasing with some sort of clause, of time period based and return the aircraft when haevy maintenance is needed, no, it´s a lessor problem really.
But then, I don´t know if that can be done.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Olympicbis
Posted 2005-08-08 15:23:08 and read 6272 times.

Quoting Philb (Reply 3):
Now back it up with some hard facts and solid trends that have led you to stake your reputation as a pundit so forcefully.

Wow, do I really have such a reputation ?

Quoting Philb (Reply 3):
at present there are 230 B737-800s outstanding for Ryanair

Philb, these are the hard facts you are asking for : 230 B737-800s outstanding. Do I see some megalomania here ...or just unbelievable capacity overestimation ??? And it is such people who allow themselves to judge how badly other carriers are managed ???? Thank you for providing us with the figures, I wasn't sure about the right numbers.

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Stirling
Posted 2005-08-08 15:50:32 and read 6236 times.

Ryanair seemingly flys to every secondary airport on the Continent and British Isles.

So...
With 230 aircraft on order, they need to be utilized somewhere...
Does this mean Ryanair will be venturing into more larger, more well-known, and centrally located airports?

Or...

Are there still that many secondary, tertiary airfields remaining that could justify at least a single load of 180 passengers per day..(or whatever the Ryanair 737 holds...)

Or...

Connecting existing airports, with other airports.
Example: Only one French destination is served from Frankfurt-Hahn; only Paris-Beauvais is served from Rome-Ciampino..
France appears to be a key...but not domestically, I doubt there is room for a competitor to the TGV, but beyond the borders, that is another story.
Same might be said of domestic options from Milan-Orso Al Serio..or Barcelona-Girona.

What would be the shortest route Ryanair undertakes? Dublin-Blackpool?

Topic: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Richardw
Posted 2005-08-08 16:10:22 and read 6189 times.

Perhaps DNR-TLN could be a possible french domestic route, not that easy by TGV?

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: LTBEWR
Posted 2005-08-08 17:03:34 and read 6092 times.

What would concern me is if Ryanair is growing too big, too fast with insufficient management structure. Those were factors, among many others, that led to the collasp of PeopleExpress here in the USA in 1987 after 6 years of operation. While Southwest is a relatively fast growing airline here in the USA, their growth has been over the last 30 years, has a better leadership structure and doesn't treat their pax or employees with overzelous penny pinching (ie: as O'Loony/Ryanair does). There may be a limit on how many people are willing to tolorate charter class, no-frills travel and with severe luggage limits that Ryanair has or will have to sustain high rates of growth.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Yyz717
Posted 2005-08-08 17:10:03 and read 6083 times.

Despite their success to date, you can't help but wonder whether it's all a house of cards. Such aggressive growth plans on top of any already massive fleet and network do not seem realistic.

Fortunes can turn quickly in the airline industry. Ryanair is still subject to the same operating environment as every other airline.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: TOMfly
Posted 2005-08-08 18:40:11 and read 5987 times.

I wish ryanair would come to Nottingham EMA with a few based aircraft! The midlands is overcrowded by not so cheap low fares to the sun! Id love to see some Ryanair routes operating. Surely with more aircraft they will have to start looking for more bases!

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Groobster
Posted 2005-08-08 19:29:10 and read 5918 times.

Quoting Stirling (Reply 16):
What would be the shortest route Ryanair undertakes? Dublin-Blackpool?

I do the BLK-DUB route quite regularly, and I swear sometimes it takes us longer to travel from the gate to the runway than it does to cross the Irish sea!

Flight time is generally 20-30mins.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: WhiteHatter
Posted 2005-08-08 19:44:20 and read 5896 times.

I think you are confusing the sale issue with a sale-and-leaseback arrangement which both Easyjet and Ryanair utilise.

They sell the new aircraft to a lessor and then get a good leasing deal. When it's time to end the lease, the lessor has an aircraft which they can place elsewhere and has a decent resale value based on that of comparable 738 aircraft which were not bought from BCA at huge discounts.

In all that complexity there are tax advantages and capital incentives for Ryanair and the lessor. Easyjet does it with the A319, which is sold the same day it gets handed over from Airbus.

Please remember Ryanair is an EU carrier, so it is comparable with someone like Southwest. Except that Southwest caters for 300 million people in the United States and Ryanair has a potential user base of 450 million within the EU. So just like Southwest has plenty of scope to expand, so does Ryanair as a pan-EU carrier.

Profits declared and the backing of some extremely heavyweight investors means that the squeaks of indignation from the armchair CEOs here are, as usual, just ill-informed squeaks. Those who know better and have decades of experience in airlines know better and are backing Ryanair with their cash.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Pe@rson
Posted 2005-08-08 20:14:32 and read 5838 times.

Quoting Stirling (Reply 16):
Ryanair seemingly flys to every secondary airport on the Continent and British Isles.

You'll actually find that the majority of airports it serves are actually primary airports for a city or town or area. In the Uk, Northern Ireland and Ireland alone, you have: Aberdeen; Edinburgh; Newcastle; Durham; Blackpool; Liverpool; Manchester; Leeds/Bradford; Robin Hood (primary for, for instance, Doncaster); Birmingham; East Midlands (primarily for, for instance, Nottingham); Cardiff; Bristol; Bournemouth; and so on. In Ireland, you have DUB; SNN; ORK; Knock; Kerry. In Northern Ireland, you have Derry. Sure, secondary airports are served, particularly in Germany and Spain, but primarily airports dominate.

What you must also remember is that 'secondary airport' does not necessarily mean 'a long way from the nearest main city.' Indeed, in certain cases, such as Rome Ciampino, it's actually closer to the city than the primary airport.

[Edited 2005-08-08 20:19:30]

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Udo
Posted 2005-08-08 20:22:17 and read 5739 times.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 23):
Sure, secondary airports are served, particularly in Germany and Spain, but primarily airports dominate.

They don't dominate. The primary airports they serve are in most cases linked with secondary airports. Or secondary airports are linked with secondary ones as well.
And yes, if you look at the local communities around an airport you will always find it to be their primary airport.


Regards
Udo

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: A350
Posted 2005-08-08 20:25:31 and read 5717 times.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 18):
What would concern me is if Ryanair is growing too big, too fast with insufficient management structure. Those were factors, among many others, that led to the collasp of PeopleExpress here in the USA in 1987 after 6 years of operation. While Southwest is a relatively fast growing airline here in the USA, their growth has been over the last 30 years, has a better leadership structure and doesn't treat their pax or employees with overzelous penny pinching (ie: as O'Loony/Ryanair does). There may be a limit on how many people are willing to tolorate charter class, no-frills travel and with severe luggage limits that Ryanair has or will have to sustain high rates of growth.

Ryanair sees this limit of growth, too. That's the reason why they want to stop the aggressive expansion in 2010. If you remember that there are still many regions and countries in Europe with relatively weak FR service and that many EU countries, especially in Central Europe, see rapid growth of both economy and air travel, FR's expansion plans look realistic to me. Of course it's not without risk, but it is a sound strategy.

A350

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: N1120A
Posted 2005-08-08 22:07:03 and read 5252 times.

Quoting Squirrel83 (Thread starter):
How many aircraft do they currently have on order?

Who do you think they will purchase the rest of the aircraft BOE or EADS?(my guess is continuation with BOE.)

It will be with Boeing, seeing as they have so many aircraft on order. They don't need to order more to double their fleet size

Quoting Squirrel83 (Thread starter):
Do you think they will ever increase their aircraft size Like to a B757?

Not likely, given that the 757 is no longer being built. I am sure they can swap to 739ERs if they want

Quoting Oldeuropean (Reply 2):
Wasn`t there a report that Ryanair will resell some of the 737s they get so cheap from Boeing

Actually, it was more likely that they would lease to other carriers as well as sale-leasebacks because in order to accept so fast and keep cash position strong, they need to lease a few

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8):
Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?

If it is a 5 year old aircraft, lots of people

Quoting Stirling (Reply 16):
Are there still that many secondary, tertiary airfields remaining that could justify at least a single load of 180 passengers per day..(or whatever the Ryanair 737 holds...)

189 passengers and I think FR is focusing on "connecting the dots"

Quoting Stirling (Reply 16):
With 230 aircraft on order, they need to be utilized somewhere...
Does this mean Ryanair will be venturing into more larger, more well-known, and centrally located airports

Probably not

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Aircanl1011
Posted 2005-08-08 22:13:53 and read 5210 times.

What if the UK suffers a huge terrorist attack on their airline industry like that of 9/11 in the US. That hurt many US operators. If something like this happened in the UK, Ryanair could be left with a huge fleet and no one wanting to fly anywhere. This could also mean they would not have buyers for any planes they wanted to sell.

I realize that this is not a reason to halt expansion, but it could end up being a grim reality.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: DouglasDC10
Posted 2005-08-08 22:58:06 and read 5043 times.

Aircanl1011, remember that Southwest Airlines was the only among the big US carriers to make profits in the third quarter of 2001. If the UK suffer from a larger terrorist attack, which hopefully will not happen, BA and BMI will suffer more than FR or EZY. Not only because FR and EZY also have flights linking other european countries without touching the UK and Ireland. But with a low economy, business travellers will look for cheaper possibilities of air travel to reduce costs.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-09 01:20:00 and read 4664 times.

People keep mentioning Ryanair buying aircraft then selling them to lessors and leasing them back. Could those who say this is currently the case please give details of the leasing companies involved and the identities of the aircraft?

As someone else has stated, Ryanair has a larger market than Southwest in just bald numbers but also has a less mature market for two different reasons.

In western Europe, until the advent of LCCs, most people's experiences in the air were with package holidays on fixed routes to a relatively small number of destinations. With the LCCs the range of destinations is much larger and, with relatively cheap prices, people are prepared to travel and explore previously uncharted territory. In addition the bulk of eastern Europe is now open territory.

In eastern Europe, where people's travel was tightly restricted until around 15 years ago, people are just beginnning to enjoy the opportunities of travel and are beginning to be able to afford it. Add in the travel for migrant workers - a massive market which is only just establishing - and you have potential for phenominal growth.

Across both marketplaces, travellers are looking at utilising second holidays for city breaks and VFR traffic. As more people move to live in other areas of the EU, away from families and friends - a growing trend - this will add to the need for cheap and frequent services to new destinations.

Ryanair has plenty of destinations it currently only serves from one or two points. Joining the dots is the name of the game.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-09 01:29:56 and read 4643 times.

I've just checked the Irish Aviation Authority pages and ALL current Ryanair aircraft are OWNED by Ryanair.

In addition, I can find nothing anywhere in aviation or financial news which states that Ryanair has made, or has the intention of making, any sale/leaseback arrangements.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: IL96M
Posted 2005-08-09 10:01:53 and read 4067 times.

Will Ryanair go beyond Europe? US? Asia? etc. Maybe with a fuel/pax stop in Iceland?

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: KennyK
Posted 2005-08-09 10:35:00 and read 4049 times.

One point some people are missing is Ryanair is not a UK carrier, it is in effect a European carrier operating throughout Europe not only the UK and Ireland. So anything that affects only one country will not have a disastrous effect.

As for growth, I'm sure Ryanair can continue and get all its future 738s working well. After that it's crystal ball time if they are to continue expanding.

Some low cost flights from central eastern England to Brussels would be nice, I'm going with a friend to Brussels on thursday and no low cost carrier flys from either Leeds/Bradford, East Midlands or Doncaster. SN BMI and BA fly from further out at stupid fares. So I'm now going Lincoln to London by train and London to Brussels by Eurostar, a journey time of almost 7 hours but at affordable prices (£33 train + £59 Eurostar rtn, £92 total each), not £334 rtn each BMI via East Midlands or £390 rtn BA/SN Brussels from Manchester or Birmingham and that does not include taxes.

Interestingly Brussels Airport does not figure with easyjet or Ryanair at present, so there's a home for some A319s/738s.

Topic: RE: Ryanair To Double The Size Of Fleet Over Five Years
Username: Philb
Posted 2005-08-09 10:48:18 and read 4022 times.

Ryanair has stated that it has no interest in long haul. The business model, logistics and infrastructure are totally different to the current method of operation.

KennyK, you are totally correct, Ryanair is a European carrier that just happens to be Ireland based with its biggest operational base CURRENTLY - not necessarily permanently - at Stansted.

As for Brussels, having been through all the hoops at Charleroi, they will be leaving easyJet, if they can make it work.


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