Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2594869/

Topic: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Johnny
Posted 2006-02-08 13:26:31 and read 4132 times.

Nearly everybody is expecting huge orders for the B787/A350 and for the B748/A388 from lots of majors this year.

It seems like A343 will be replaced by A350/B787 and older B744 bei either B748/B773ER or A388.
Will this really happen?

What if we assume a change in thinking in the business for this year?A change which has been forecasted by Boeing since years now...(De-Hubbing, or PTP)

let me know about your ideas for all major airlines.Would be great to see all different meanings of airliners.net people without getting into a A vs. B war again!

I think i start with Lufthansa :

Their fleet to be replaced :

B744 30
A343 29

What about a mixed order of add. A388 for the Hub-Routes with high pax loads ,A350-900 for lower pax loads on HUB-Flights AND around 15-20 B777-200LR for hubflights with HIGH payload or NON-HUB-Flights ?

 Smile

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Kappel
Posted 2006-02-08 14:18:13 and read 4069 times.

Quoting Johnny (Thread starter):
think i start with Lufthansa :

Their fleet to be replaced :

B744 30
A343 29

What about a mixed order of add. A388 for the Hub-Routes with high pax loads ,A350-900 for lower pax loads on HUB-Flights AND around 15-20 B777-200LR for hubflights with HIGH payload or NON-HUB-Flights ?

IMHO the 772LR has zero chance of being ordered by LH.
First, most routes don't need that range, and second it would be too small a sub-type for LH. The a343's will probably be replaced by the a359, and the 744 by the a388 and a346.. Maybe the 748, but I think it's still too close in size to the a388. Maybe because LH doesn't want to become an all Airbus operator they will order the 787 to replace the a343 (the -9 or -10)

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Johnny
Posted 2006-02-11 21:39:17 and read 3866 times.

Come on guys.Show your fantasy! It is so simple to say for example Delta will go for B787 because they need to replace a BIG B767-Fleet.Or the same for AA.This is what the normal argumentation of a lot of airliners.net user is.

But is there no airline planning to change that way of replacing aircrafts with new aircrafts in the same size? Cannot believe it.

What about another example which could happen in my personal point of view:

British Airways is replacing their 56? B744 with 20 B777-200LR and also 30 A380-800.

Let´s play our fantasy and show some surprising fleet changes which could really happen!

There were a lot of surprises last year! So show your ideas!!!  Smile

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Shamrock350
Posted 2006-02-11 22:04:42 and read 3841 times.

Aer Lingus needs a good few A350s or 787s and have already ordered two A330s. Many people want the 787 ordered but it has been said to be too small for EI and I would love for them to order about 15 A350s. Aer Lingus also have a large short-haul fleet of A320s and A321s so maybe some more A320s and even A319s.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Glom
Posted 2006-02-11 22:26:09 and read 3790 times.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
British Airways is replacing their 56? B744 with 20 B777-200LR and also 30 A380-800.

Everyone expects a large 773ER order when the time comes, with a small 748 or A388 order. The jury is still out on the 772LR.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2006-02-11 22:32:31 and read 3778 times.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
Come on guys.Show your fantasy! It is so simple to say for example Delta will go for B787 because they need to replace a BIG B767-Fleet.Or the same for AA.This is what the normal argumentation of a lot of airliners.net user is.

The 767-400ERs don't need to be replaced in the short term, as they are still young.

The 767-200 and 767-300 (non-ER) fleets can be replaced by the 787-3.

I wouldn't expect the 787-8 to replace the 767-300ER in the short term, but can supplement the 767-300ER, and replace it in the long term.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Lightsaber
Posted 2006-02-11 23:09:19 and read 3721 times.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
It is so simple to say for example Delta will go for B787 because they need to replace a BIG B767-Fleet.

One way or the other DL will have to downsize their 767 fleet.  Sad There have been enough other discussions on a.net on how the planes are oversized on too many of the domestic routes they fly... Thus, I do not expect DL to order the 783...

When/if DL gets healthy I expect the following orders:
1. A *rationalization* of their narrow body fleet. Most likely winner is the 738 or 737NNG.
2. Expanded long haul. Short term more 777's. Long term? This does get very interesting long term. I expect a bunch of 788/789's.

Quoting Glom (Reply 4):
Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
British Airways is replacing their 56? B744 with 20 B777-200LR and also 30 A380-800.

Everyone expects a large 773ER order when the time comes, with a small 748 or A388 order. The jury is still out on the 772LR.

In my opinion, this order will rock the industry. I expect BA to do as QF and go for a suprisingly large order that forces A and B to negotiate down to the wire. BA seems to be shrinking ("right sizing") their fleet more than anything else... But they will need a numer of *large* airframes. This will be the 748/388 battle of the decade!

Let me do one more: At $63/bbl AA will have to upgrade their fleets. I do not expect them to go down NW's famous DC-9 path. Options:
1. new engines/winglets for the MD-80's. Winglets for everything else.
2. E170/E190 Point to point fleet.  bigthumbsup  I think this is a serious possibility if AA goes for a strategy change and orders 200 or 300 of these.
3. New muscle in the longhaul. I'm not sure if the 788 or 789 would work better for them... but when AA moves in this size range, it will be HUGE!

No change for NW. The Diesel-9's are here to stay.  duck 

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: SunriseValley
Posted 2006-02-11 23:23:30 and read 3695 times.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
What about another example which could happen in my personal point of view:

British Airways is replacing their 56? B744 with 20 B777-200LR and also 30 A380-800.

The A380 has to clean up its act to get any new orders or to get existing options execised.Right now it is overweight and suffering from excessive fuel burn. There is still work to be done to get this type to meet it's guarantees.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: SunriseValley
Posted 2006-02-11 23:30:54 and read 3683 times.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 2):
What about another example which could happen in my personal point of view:

British Airways is replacing their 56? B744 with 20 B777-200LR and also 30 A380-800.

The A380 has to clean up its act to get any new orders or to get existing options execised.Right now it is overweight and suffering from excessive fuel burn. There is still work to be done to get this type to meet it's guarantees.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Lumberton
Posted 2006-02-11 23:44:59 and read 3658 times.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 6):
Thus, I do not expect DL to order the 783...

There was speculation that QF would order the 783 for domestic 767 replacement, but they opted for the 788. Couldn't DL do likewise?

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2006-02-11 23:56:30 and read 3633 times.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 6):
One way or the other DL will have to downsize their 767 fleet. There have been enough other discussions on a.net on how the planes are oversized on too many of the domestic routes they fly... Thus, I do not expect DL to order the 783...

What many of you don't understand is that Delta does NOT intend on moving ALL widebodies to international routes.

The domestic 767-300s (non-ERs) will stay on domestic routes. The 787-3 is the perfect replacement here when Delta's financial situation improves. The 787-3 can also pick up where the 767-200s left off.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: N62NA
Posted 2006-02-12 00:03:53 and read 3606 times.

How about the recent order by US for 25 E190s? That's a pretty major shift, as these "regional jets" will have F and Y cabins.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: Atmx2000
Posted 2006-02-12 00:08:52 and read 3595 times.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 6):
One way or the other DL will have to downsize their 767 fleet.   There have been enough other discussions on a.net on how the planes are oversized on too many of the domestic routes they fly... Thus, I do not expect DL to order the 783...



Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 10):
What many of you don't understand is that Delta does NOT intend on moving ALL widebodies to international routes.

The domestic 767-300s (non-ERs) will stay on domestic routes. The 787-3 is the perfect replacement here when Delta's financial situation improves. The 787-3 can also pick up where the 767-200s left off.

I think US airlines will be very careful about ordering domestic widebodies. I instead expect to see US airlines flying widebodies used on international flights domestically for the purpose of increasing utilization.

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2006-02-12 01:19:19 and read 3504 times.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 12):
I think US airlines will be very careful about ordering domestic widebodies. I instead expect to see US airlines flying widebodies used on international flights domestically for the purpose of increasing utilization.

I seriously doubt that Delta will configure all of their widebodies with BusinessElite. For the the routes that Delta's 767-300s currently fly, a high density domestic configuration is needed, not an international configuration with BusinessElite. While Delta could operate two 787-8 subfleets (one for international and one for domestic), the 787-3 is a more efficient aircraft for domestic operations. The reasons are lower fuel burn and the ability to use existing 767 gates.

CO and NW don't utilize widebodies on domestic flights as much as DL, so they have no need for the 787-3. Delta is NOT totally giving up widebodies on domestic flights, just reducing it.

IMO the 787-3 is also a good replacement for AA's A300s.

[Edited 2006-02-12 01:22:08]

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: A319XFW
Posted 2006-02-12 01:55:00 and read 3469 times.

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 8):
Right now it is overweight and suffering from excessive fuel burn

What? Where? When?

Topic: RE: Orders Of Major Airlines In A New Direction?
Username: SunriseValley
Posted 2006-02-12 19:35:32 and read 3277 times.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 14):
What? Where? When?

There have been a number of threads dealing with the weight and fuel burn woes of the A380. One was RE: SQ Fleet Changes For 2006.
Seek out the postings from Philsquares a SQ 747 Capt. who clearly is aware of the present situation based on inside information. If you read through this carefully, you should become well informed on the subject.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/