Intersting article though already much discussed.

- A340 at the end of it's sales curve
- Airbus is headed for 30% market share
- Boeing to regain deliveries lead in 2008 and never losing it giving Boeing 'unassailable momentum'
- 'The superiority of the 777 over the A340, and the 787 over the current A350, will leave Airbus "with a vacuum where they had a product line," he said.


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...gaerospace/2002913913_leahy06.html

I'm sure if you look hard enough among similar French publications about 2 to 3 years ago, you could have found similar to this, just substitute Boeing for Airbus..... If Airbus in crisis mode picks up 30 % of the market, then Boeing's lead will not be unassailable. Theyve got problems, nothing a bit of decent leadership couldn't fix.

Nope. It wouldn't be hard at all. All it takes is a few billion dollars to fix. Therein lies the problem for Boeing and Airbus.

Quoting Douwd20 (Thread starter): never losing it giving Boeing 'unassailable momentum'

That's just silly.

Quoting Kangar (Reply 1): I'm sure if you look hard enough among similar French publications about 2 to 3 years ago, you could have found similar to this, just substitute Boeing for Airbus

Agreed!


Boeing seems to be winning the long-haul battle with the 787/777 v. 350/340 but Airbus still seems to be winning the 320/737 battle and had the 380 in a class of it's own for now. Sure, the company has some issues and is being soundly beaten in the profitable 787/777/350/340 category, but I'd hardly call it a company on the brink of collapse and people like to suggest.

Quoting Goodmanr (Reply 3): Sure, the company has some issues and is being soundly beaten in the profitable 787/777/350/340 category, but I'd hardly call it a company on the brink of collapse and people like to suggest.

Airbus beaten in the 777/340 segment, maybe... but in the 787/350 segment....?
Lets see! Nobody can tell right now how those two airliners will really behave when EIS is done! Therefore, I say Boeing and Airbus do a very well job and Airbus is still there on the race. Both manufacturers are very powerful and amazing a/c creators! It will be exciting to see the next few years in the race of providing nice, good, amazing a/c for the civil aviation industry.

Regards,
Patrick

Quoting Douwd20 (Reply 2): Nope. It wouldn't be hard at all. All it takes is a few billion dollars to fix. Therein lies the problem for Boeing and Airbus.

Airbus just committed it's billions of $$$$ to buy out EADS. There won't be a overhaul of the A350. They can't afford it anymore.

Quoting Goodmanr (Reply 3): Boeing seems to be winning the long-haul battle with the 787/777 v. 350/340 but Airbus still seems to be winning the 320/737 battle and had the 380 in a class of it's own for now. Sure, the company has some issues and is being soundly beaten in the profitable 787/777/350/340 category, but I'd hardly call it a company on the brink of collapse and people like to suggest.

New Udvar-Hazy quote:

Quote: In an interview in the hotel garden afterward, Udvar-Hazy sketched on a piece of paper the lineage of the Airbus wide-body product line since the A300 in 1974. The width of the passenger cabin has remained constant and is smaller than those of the 777 and 787. The wing was renewed with the A330, but now lags the 787 design � making the jet slower and adding as much as an hour of flight time on a long-range trip, he said. "This, to me, is like a dead end," he said, pointing at the A340-600 on his sketch. The A340, he said, is "at the tail end of its sales curve."

New SQ quote:

Quote: But Leahy conceded that the man whose favor Boeing and Airbus are seeking for the next big wide-body order, Singapore Airlines chief executive Chew Choon Seng, had only the previous week asked him why Airbus couldn't provide a new, wider fuselage on the A350.

New Leahy Quote:

Quote: n November, Leahy wrote a memo to his bosses that was later leaked to the German magazine Der Spiegel. The magazine's quotes from the memo are now used in internal Boeing presentations. "In the view of the investors, Boeing has taken over the leadership in all airplane categories," Leahy's memo said.

Is it just me, or do a aweful lot of things tend to leak from the pen of John Leahy?

New Airbus insider quote:

Quote: But Doug McVitie, an Airbus sales director just before Leahy's time and now an industry consultant based in France, said the real problem is the airplanes Leahy has to sell. McVitie's Arran Aerospace has just completed market forecasts that show Boeing's strength in the midsized-widebody market giving it unassailable momentum. The superiority of the 777 over the A340, and the 787 over the current A350, will leave Airbus "with a vacuum where they had a product line," he said.

Quote: Some observers said that following a clumsy Airbus leadership switch last year, turf battles within upper management are hampering its strategy. Leahy was considered for but passed over for the leadership, essentially because he isn't French or German.

That's a pretty strongly worded comment.

Quote: "If the ship is sinking, he doesn't need to go down with it," McVitie said. "John Leahy has immense respect among hard-core aerospace people at Airbus. He really has done a tremendous job for them. He won't want to be dragged down with them."

That's from a former Airbus sales exec? Yikes...

IMHO, the pendulum will swing no further than 55%-45% in favor of either manufacturer barring some unforseen off-the-wall circumstance. Both are strong, solid companies that know how to build a good product. There is good competitive balance which should keep them close to the 50-50 market split.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5): That's from a former Airbus sales exec? Yikes...

With all due respect, he is a former salesman, as for getting dragged down, I doubt that could ahppen. Besides, abandoning Airbus and going to say, Boeing would undermine his credibility.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 6): IMHO, the pendulum will swing no further than 55%-45% in favor of either manufacturer barring some unforseen off-the-wall circumstance

Depends on how you measure the market.

In terms of pure sales numbers last year, Airbus and Boeing had almost a complete split: Airbus 1049 and Boeing 1010, IIRC. Looking at those numbers closely, you realize that Airbus sold relativly few widebodies while Boeing had a very even split of widebodies and narrowbodies. In terms of dollar value of aircraft, Boeing was the clear winner.

In certain markets like the 200-400 seat markets, Boeing will pull away as the clear winner in backlog by the end of the year.

In the A388 and B747 market, it will be tough to declare which aircraft is selling better due to the mistaken notion that these aircraft do not "compete."

The A320 and B737NG market will likely remain a close match-up with the advantage to Airbus.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 6): Both are strong, solid companies that know how to build a good product.

To be blunt: that isn't entirely true anymore. We are likely entering a phase where the recent Airbus-Boeing parity will be disrupted.

The products being offered by Airbus and Boeing are no longer have equal performance and many of the old assumptions no longer hold.

Quoting Glidepath73 (Reply 4): Lets see! Nobody can tell right now how those two airliners will really behave when EIS is done!

Let's see, customers give their vote of confidence with their checkbook. Whose presenting the better product to customers? Boeing is already initiating prototype construction, they can't just advertise whatever the airlines want to hear. Because Airbus can't win with a paper plane tells you something!

The fact remains that the B787 has virtually swept the Asian customers, while Airbus is signing B-team carriers like Finnair, TAM Portugal, etc.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 8): Let's see, customers give their vote of confidence with their checkbook. Whose presenting the better product to customers? Boeing is already initiating prototype construction, they can't just advertise whatever the airlines want to hear. Because Airbus can't win with a paper plane tells you something! The fact remains that the B787 has virtually swept the Asian customers, while Airbus is signing B-team carriers like Finnair, TAM Portugal, etc.

The fact also remains that Boeing have yet to sell a 748 pax version, and the A388 EIS is getting close. This say to me that as a paper plane, the A380 has a clear advantage in CASM over the 748, and the airlines are waiting for in service figures to confirm their gut feelings before comitting. I would be genuinely surprised not to see a good surge in demand for the A380 after EIS. Also, it only takes one blue chip carrier signing for the A350 to put the wind back in Airbus's sails. Honestly, reports of Airbus's decline now are as premature as those of Boeing's decline a few years back.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 8): Quoting ER757 (Reply 6): Both are strong, solid companies that know how to build a good product. To be blunt: that isn't entirely true anymore. We are likely entering a phase where the recent Airbus-Boeing parity will be disrupted. The products being offered by Airbus and Boeing are no longer have equal performance and many of the old assumptions no longer hold.

Fair point in some repects, except that the recent parity wasn't really parity, Airbus outstripped Boeing for sales and deliveries over the last 3 or 4 years. And the A388 / A320s advantage over the 748/737 could conceivably compensate for the deficient areas in Airbus's product line up. Time will tell. Also, if the A350 takes only 30% of the market 230-300 seat market, and this is entirely do-able, Airbus will see a decent return, and keep a good substantial presence in the market. The biggest problem for Airbus is the A346. The A345 is doing OK, and was only every going to be a niche player in any case. But the A346 is the one plane where there is a real and telling perfromance deficit.


The other thing to be aware of is that there are no winners in business, ever. Advantage is always temporary.

Quoting Kangar (Reply 9): The other thing to be aware of is that there are no winners in business, ever. Advantage is always temporary.

Isn't that the entire human condition? Olympiad at 20. Can't make the team at 40.

Quoting Douwd20 (Thread starter): The other thing to be aware of is that there are no winners in business, ever. Advantage is always temporary.

General Motors circa 1958 and General Motors circa 2006....!

Funny how everybody seem to forget about the A330 which is doing extremely well with customers extremely happy with this aircraft.

Funny how everybody seem to forget about the A330 which is doing extremely well with customers extremely happy with this aircraft.

Oh yeah, forgot about the A330! How many sales this year?

Leahy has done his job very well. But his ability to sell is entirely contingent on the product he has to offer. This is scapegoating.

Quoting Glidepath73 (Reply 4): Airbus beaten in the 777/340 segment, maybe

Maybe?????

Quoting Glidepath73 (Reply 4): but in the 787/350 segment....? Lets see! Nobody can tell right now how those two airliners will really behave when EIS is done!

That's naivety and you know it.

Quoting Aither (Reply 12): Funny how everybody seem to forget about the A330 which is doing extremely well with customers extremely happy with this aircraft.

For your info, LH, SAA and IB are very happy with their A340's. That doesn't necessarily mean the A340 is doing well compared to the competitor.

Quoting Goodmanr (Reply 3): 380 in a class of it's own for now.

Yes, and according to Udvar-Hazy, if they are lucky it will ship 350-400 units, which is almost enought to just break even. That's assuming they don't have to start discounting it.


Here's how I see it. Airbus will stay dominant in narrowbodies, Boeing will open their lead further in widebodies, the big test will the 737 / A320 replacements. If Airbus continues to produce a class leading product, they'll continue to dominate narrowbodies and keep a atleast a plurality of the market share (in terms of dollars), if Boeing produces a noticably superior product for its 737 replacement, and takes over the narrowbody market, Airbus then will be in a corner.

Airbus losing market share in widebodies (and they are, Boeing has them in 2 of their 3 lines - 777 vs A340 and 787 vs A350 - and their 3rd line, A380 doesn't look like it's going to sell that many units - according to Udvar-Hazy) isn't the end of the world for them, so long as they keep their succesful narrowbody A320 line. If Airbus loses their market dominance, or even drops down to where A320 and 737RS sales are even, it's likely not good for them.

Right now with their having to buy out BAe, they seem to be perhaps a little financially stretched thin at the moment. Perhaps in a few more years, after their A320 replacement is near production, we'll see them launch an A340 replacement program to compete with Boeing Y3 - which is planned for about the same time. That looks like their first good opportunity to win back a good share of widebody sales.