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Topic: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Gokmengs
Posted 2006-07-14 17:57:56 and read 4762 times.

DL has been serving IST successfully for the last few years, I was wondering if any other US carrier is eyeing IST since the market has been growing very healthy over in Turkey.
The one market that TK can't start for the forseeable future is LAX, can any US carrier start LAX-IST? It's a known fact that it'll make money but TK don't have the aircraft to do it, anybody would like to speculate if AA or UA would want to do it.
AA codeshares out of LAX with TK so they should have the data they need on the route.
Also CO with the gazillion destinations from EWR can be candidate?
Any info and opinion is appreciated

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: ARGinLON
Posted 2006-07-14 18:05:57 and read 4756 times.

CO may start it in the future when new a/c become available due to new deliveries. For the time being seems pretty difficult unless CO doesn’t get the China rights due to be announced in 2007. If this happens, the 2 772 scheduled to be delivered in 2007 may be reallocated to Europe opening some possibilities for new flights. However, I read in another forum Moscow has priority over Istanbul.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Gokmengs
Posted 2006-07-14 19:00:24 and read 4681 times.

Quoting ARGinLON (Reply 1):
CO may start it in the future when new a/c become available due to new deliveries. For the time being seems pretty difficult unless CO doesn’t get the China rights due to be announced in 2007. If this happens, the 2 772 scheduled to be delivered in 2007 may be reallocated to Europe opening some possibilities for new flights. However, I read in another forum Moscow has priority over Istanbul.

CO is likely candidate IMO, but I think you got confused because CO already serves Moscow from EWR.
What are your thoughts on LAX-IST by AA or UA?

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2006-07-14 19:19:06 and read 4651 times.

AA code-shares with TK from JFK and ORD (and MIA at one point) so I do not see them entering IST unless the code-share ends. Not sure about UA - if anything it would be from IAD. US airlines operating from the West Coast across the Atlantic have had limited success - mostly to London, Amsterdam (NW/KL) and Germany (UA/LH). So IST might be a long shot indeed for a US carrier to serve.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: COEWRNJ
Posted 2006-07-14 19:34:37 and read 4617 times.

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 2):
CO already serves Moscow from EWR.

CO does not serve Moscow from EWR. They has planned on starting it twice before the second time was supposed to be this May to DME. The service never started probably due to lack of available aircraft.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2006-07-14 19:37:36 and read 4607 times.

Quoting Gokmengs (Thread starter):
It's a known fact that it'll make money but TK don't have the aircraft to do it, anybody would like to speculate if AA or UA would want to do it.

That is not a "known fact". The reality is that LAX-IST is most likely too long and thin to be profitable.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Dutchjet
Posted 2006-07-14 19:38:08 and read 4607 times.

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 2):

CO is likely candidate IMO, but I think you got confused because CO already serves Moscow from EWR.
What are your thoughts on LAX-IST by AA or UA?

CO does not yet office service to Moscow......its been rumored and CO filed for the authority, but the route is not yet operating. As for CO opening EWR-IST, its the same old story, CO does not have any longrange airplanes available to launch the route, EWR-IST is beyond the range of a 752. As mentioned above, the two 772ERs coming next year will hopefully fly a new route to China, but it the China authority is not granted, the airplanes will be used on transtatlantic services until an alternate route is launched.....its unlikely that CO will consider EWR-IST until the 787s start being delivered.

As for LAX-IST by AA or UA.....its not going to happen, the US carriers cannot seem to make LAX/SFO-Europe flights work since the routes almost totally rely on O&D traffic. LAX of SFO-London is one thing, LAX-IST is another. Neither AA or UA could run LAX or SFO to CDG and make money, for example.....if LAX-IST would ever be launched, it will be by Turkish Airlines; TK has A343s in their fleet.....LAX-IST should be possible with the A343s.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: RwSEA
Posted 2006-07-14 19:39:17 and read 4595 times.

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 2):
CO is likely candidate IMO, but I think you got confused because CO already serves Moscow from EWR.

CO does NOT serve Moscow. They would like to, but don't have the planes to do it!

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Laxintl
Posted 2006-07-14 19:51:18 and read 4572 times.

Selamlar Gokmegs,

At the moment I dont see any additional US passenger carriers starting service to Turkey. Ultimately some one like CO could start, however for now most access to Turkey is well provided for by alliance partners.

As far as LAX, its been discussed here over the years. THY does not have the equipment to serve the market on a nonstop basis where a 787 type would be suitable. For the foreseeable future TK could only service LA either one stop via Europe where they posses traffic rights via Belgium and Holland or as a onestop via another North America gateway. While they have studied the route over and over the economics favor a nonstop which provides for significant beyond IST connectivity.

A more important event which might shape US carrier service to Turkey will be THYs announced intent to gain entry into an alliance in the next 18 months. TK will choose the alliance which provides for the the best positioning of the carriers IST hub and while providing the greatest upside revenue potential.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Dutchjet
Posted 2006-07-14 19:54:04 and read 4563 times.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
THY does not have the equipment to serve the market on a nonstop basis where a 787 type would be suitable.

Question: TK has A343s - couldnt these aircraft fly a LAX-IST route?

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Laxintl
Posted 2006-07-14 20:04:10 and read 4538 times.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 9):
Question: TK has A343s - couldnt these aircraft fly a LAX-IST route?

They might manage LAX-IST, however cant do IST-LAX with even close to an economic payload. Besides headwinds coming Westbound, IST has somewhat short'ish (for the A340) 9800ft runways.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Humberside
Posted 2006-07-14 20:35:36 and read 4504 times.

Would LAX-IST perhaps be a good route for AtlasJet if they got suitable aircraft?

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Laxintl
Posted 2006-07-14 20:55:51 and read 4469 times.

Quoting Humberside (Reply 11):
Would LAX-IST perhaps be a good route for AtlasJet if they got suitable aircraft?

The manner THY could make LAX-IST work is based on being able to offer significant beyond connections to places such as Iran, India, Israel all whom all have populations in the LA metro area.

Atlasjet on the other hand would be forced to depend near strictly on O&D demand. Beyond possibly some low frequency summer service catering for US tourist I doubt the market is sustainable.
Anyways, Atlasjet last winter had a change in its ownership structure, with the new owners being much more focused on the carrier growing its domestic network than its international network. Prior to the change Atlasjet was looking to lease widebody equipment for proposed service to NY and Thailand.

Topic: RE: Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST?
Username: Gokmengs
Posted 2006-07-14 22:29:36 and read 4401 times.

Quoting COEWRNJ (Reply 4):
CO does not serve Moscow from EWR. They has planned on starting it twice before the second time was supposed to be this May to DME. The service never started probably due to lack of available aircraft.



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 6):
CO does not serve Moscow from EWR. They has planned on starting it twice before the second time was supposed to be this May to DME. The service never started probably due to lack of available aircraft.



Quoting RwSEA (Reply 7):
CO does not serve Moscow from EWR. They has planned on starting it twice before the second time was supposed to be this May to DME. The service never started probably due to lack of available aircraft.

Whoopps sorry guys, I was really positive they did,well good for DL I heard they are making loads of money there Wink

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
That is not a "known fact". The reality is that LAX-IST is most likely too long and thin to be profitable.

Good point my friend, but I guess that applies for the US carriers(which was really my question) but like Laxintl says it could make sense for TK, since they can offer connections to Middle East. I believe TK will start the route when(notice i'm not saying if)they get their 787's.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Selamlar Gokmegs,

Selam Laxintl, long time no hear, good to have you back in yet another Turkey related thread.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
At the moment I dont see any additional US passenger carriers starting service to Turkey. Ultimately some one like CO could start, however for now most access to Turkey is well provided for by alliance partners

With CO's strong presence in EWR(very high Turkish population) and given their international network, I am surprised they left IST out, maybe when they get additional aircraft?

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
A more important event which might shape US carrier service to Turkey will be THYs announced intent to gain entry into an alliance in the next 18 months. TK will choose the alliance which provides for the the best positioning of the carriers IST hub and while providing the greatest upside revenue potential.

Do you give one alliance more chance then the other or is it basically anyones guess at this point?
Do you think TK will eventually start LAX sometime in the future when they have the ac with that kind of range.


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