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Topic: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Manni
Posted 2006-09-16 08:19:37 and read 6267 times.

Scroll down about one third of the page, dated 15/09.

Baseler comments on the 748i.

part of the article,

The 747-8 is not lacking for orders -- with 30 received so far for the freight-hauling variant of the plane, including 12 by Atlas Air announced this week -- and it may come to pass Boeing won't need to build its "Intercontinental" passenger-version of the plane at all. But that's not to say Boeing's vice president of commercial airplane marketing, Randy Baseler, would turn any interested customers away.

"If an airline wanted to buy it, we would be happy to do it," Baseler told reporters this week, according to CBS Marketwatch.


http://www.aero-news.net/PlainPage.cfm

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That doesn't sound to good for the 748i IMO. It indicates that a firm order is not yet up in the air. It also makes me wonder what the status is of the unidentified 748i.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: 777ER
Posted 2006-09-16 08:33:24 and read 6265 times.

A very reliable source has informed me that a few airlines are seriously interested in the B748I passenger model and a few orders could be expected before years end

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would
Username: Columba
Posted 2006-09-16 12:41:55 and read 6159 times.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
A very reliable source has informed me that a few airlines are seriously interested in the B748I passenger model and a few orders could be expected before years end

This has been stated over and over again. That airlines are interested is no secret. The question is are these airlines convinced that the new 747 will fulfill their needs or rather choose the A380 or the 777-300ER instead.
On September 22nd LH will decide on their fleet renewal plan and it will likely be a faithful day for the 747-8 since it is one of the planes being considered.
Lufthansa was always said to be one of the potential customers of the 747-8I and their managers said on various occasions that they very interested in the aircraft.
If they won´t take it it is definitely no good sign for the future of the 747-8I.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Dutchjet
Posted 2006-09-16 12:58:53 and read 6136 times.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
That doesn't sound to good for the 748i IMO. It indicates that a firm order is not yet up in the air. It also makes me wonder what the status is of the unidentified 748i.

The wording of the article is odd.........and Baseler's comment is a very casual statement. I would not read anything into this beyond the fact that, at the moment, the F variant of the 748 is bringing in orders, and no sales for the pax version as yet to be announced. One order from one major carrier is all that the 748i needs for the program to take off.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
A very reliable source has informed me that a few airlines are seriously interested in the B748I passenger model and a few orders could be expected before years end

We have been hearing this for a while......granted, its not yet year end and many seem to think that orders for the 748i will be firmed up shortly. There are several major carriers that a potentially could order the 748i (we all know the list - BA, CX, QF, LH are some of the key players) and establish the type in the market. Time will tell. I dont want to do the 748i vs the A380 thing yet again, but that none of the key potential 748i launch customers have placed new or follow on orders for the A380 has to be considered good news for the 748i.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
Lufthansa was always said to be one of the potential customers of the 747-8I and their managers said on various occasions that they very interested in the aircraft.
If they won´t take it it is definitely no good sign for the future of the 747-8I.

I agree - a LH order could get the 748i program off the ground in a big way....if LH passes on the 748i (an airplane that they have seemed very interested in) it will not be the end of the 748i program (BA - who admits to pushing Boeing into developing the 748i is still a factor) but its not a good sign. I am very curious as to LH's fleet decisions.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
The question is are these airlines convinced that the
new 747 will fulfill their needs or rather choose the A380 or the 777-300ER instead

The million dollar question......is there a need for a pax airplane that slots inbetween the smaller 773ER and larger A380? With all of the 744s in service, I do believe that there is a role for the 748i.....but lets wait for the orders.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Jetjack74
Posted 2006-09-16 15:33:02 and read 6008 times.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
If they won´t take it it is definitely no good sign for the future of the 747-8I.

40 years ago people were saying the same thing about another aircraft, until LH ordered it. It being the 737, went on to become the best selling aircraft in history.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Manni
Posted 2006-09-16 16:32:27 and read 5924 times.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 3):
I dont want to do the 748i vs the A380 thing yet again, but that none of the key potential 748i launch customers have placed new or follow on orders for the A380 has to be considered good news for the 748i.

The A380 being near to commercial launch has most likely a lot more to do with the lack of orders than the presence of a proposal of a new 747 variant. Once again, I'll point out the 2 orders placed for the now highly succesfull 777 series, in the year previuos to her commercial launch.

SQ, long considered as THE potential customer for the 748i (do a search in the archives of this forum), has made a commitment for an additional 9 A380's. When firmed up, their order will have nearly doubled.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Dutchjet
Posted 2006-09-16 16:54:53 and read 5874 times.

Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
The A380 being near to commercial launch has most likely a lot more to do with the lack of orders than the presence of a proposal of a new 747 variant. Once again, I'll point out the 2 orders placed for the now highly succesfull 777 series, in the year previuos to her commercial launch

We gonna have to agree to disagree on this point......I do think that the 748i proposals have caused airlines to re-evaluate their needs in the high capacity sector, but I do agree that everyone is playing a wait and see game at this point. And, the delays in the A380 program, which will cetainly be overcome in the longrun, is not making anything easier at the moment.

Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
SQ, long considered as THE potential customer for the 748i (do a search in the archives of this forum), has made a commitment for an additional 9 A380's. When firmed up, their order will have nearly doubled.

I agree that a lot of a.net members were convinced that SQ would launch the 748i....and it is correct that SQ has (or will be) ordering more A380s, I know that I always thought that they would more A380s and SQ (being very clever) placed the order when they knew that they could get a very good deal from Airbus (due to everything else going on)........but I think the more important issue is what airlines like BA, CX and some of the Chinese carriers, none of which have ordered the A380, will do? LH is also a key case.....there is much talk that LH carefully looked at the 748i and liked what it saw, and LH seems to be interested in an airplane that slots between their A346s and A388s (remember the LH 773ER rumors for example).

We will see how this all plays out, it is interesting. One way or the other, I do think that we will see the 748i ordered by a good number of airlines.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: JAM747
Posted 2006-09-16 17:23:13 and read 5823 times.

This time last year we waited fore the announcement that Boeing would build the 747-8. This year we wait to see who will order the 747-8i. If Boeing took so long to decide on lauching the aircraft I strongly believe they know much more than we do and will have orders for the 747-8i soon. A very good source also told me this . One of the main things is what the final lenght of the 747-8 will be. In addition remember that alot of the large wide bodies in service now such as current 747-400, A340s and 777s are pretty new so there might not be pressure to replace those soon.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: KSUpilot
Posted 2006-09-16 18:06:31 and read 5749 times.

Well there is still time left in the year and this is a big decision for airlines to make.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Kaitak
Posted 2006-09-17 14:33:25 and read 4320 times.

I think that with Boeing having settled on a 747-8I which is the same size as the pax version and closing the gap on the A380 (not to mention the current problems of the 380), the chances of the pax version look very good indeed. I don't see LH going for the 747-8I, or indeed any of the existing A380 customers, BUT I do think you will see quite a few Asian carriers going for it - and one or two Europeans as well, particularly BA. KLM is the only other possibility I can think of, but I think they'll buy -8Fs, if they buy any more 747s and rely on 773ERs for pax.

I would see CX being the launch customer, with JL, CI, NZ, possibly AI, being in there somewhere. AI always needs capacity for the UK and with a big order for Boeing already in the books, 747-8s would make sense.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: JayinKitsap
Posted 2006-09-17 18:43:45 and read 4185 times.

Well the 748 line is already started with the decent amound of -F orders. If and when the I orders come I suspect it might be a group of 20 or so from say 3 airlines. Will it be tomorrow or next year, only people in the room know.

I think the actual orders were hatched at the asian conference a few weeks ago.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Johnny
Posted 2006-09-17 19:10:55 and read 4147 times.

That airplane is struggling more and more.Boeing should concentrate on two B748F-Versions instead of and develop a B777-400 Pax-Version asap!!!

 Smile

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: RedFlyer
Posted 2006-09-17 21:46:38 and read 4026 times.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
That doesn't sound to good for the 748i IMO.

I agree. It almost sounds like he's trying to prep the market for potential orders of the 8i that are starting to evaporate.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
On September 22nd LH will decide on their fleet renewal plan and it will likely be a faithful day for the 747-8 since it is one of the planes being considered.

Could it be that LH has already informally notified Boeing that they're not going to place an order for the 8i? Maybe that is the hidden message in Baseler's very unexciting comment about the 8i.

Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
I'll point out the 2 orders placed for the now highly succesfull 777 series, in the year previuos to her commercial launch.

Can't read too much into that. Prior to 9/11, the period from 1991 - 1995 was the biggest slow-down in the airline industry.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: MCIGuy
Posted 2006-09-17 22:19:03 and read 3989 times.

Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
When firmed up, their order will have nearly doubled.

...assuming they will be firmed up.  Wink

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-09-18 00:18:54 and read 3904 times.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 12):
I agree. It almost sounds like he's trying to prep the market for potential orders of the 8i that are starting to evaporate.

sounds like the other way to me......

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Dank
Posted 2006-09-20 00:25:14 and read 3640 times.

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 8):
Well there is still time left in the year and this is a big decision for airlines to make.

I don't think that a 748i order really is that big a decision to make for an airline. Not nearly as big a decision as going with a 350/787, etc.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 12):I agree. It almost sounds like he's trying to prep the market for potential orders of the 8i that are starting to evaporate.
sounds like the other way to me......

I wouldn't say that it was exactly a positive sounding statement (especially after the much more positive statements made in the past regarding potential orders for the 748i). But, I wouldn't read much into it either way. What it does sound like, though, is that they are putting in the development for the 748i regardless of whether it goes forward or not. Which could be a plus or a minus depending on how things fall.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 6):
Quoting Manni (Reply 5):The A380 being near to commercial launch has most likely a lot more to do with the lack of orders than the presence of a proposal of a new 747 variant. Once again, I'll point out the 2 orders placed for the now highly succesfull 777 series, in the year previuos to her commercial launch
We gonna have to agree to disagree on this point......I do think that the 748i proposals have caused airlines to re-evaluate their needs in the high capacity sector, but I do agree that everyone is playing a wait and see game at this point. And, the delays in the A380 program, which will cetainly be overcome in the longrun, is not making anything easier at the moment.

I think it is a combination of the two. And the delays to the 380 paradoxically can benefit the 380 program and hurt in vis a vis new orders (i.e. financials can make it easier to add more like SQ or you can tick off customers and lose orders). The fact that, if you believe the reports, the 380 is performing at least as well as expected, doesn't hurt airbus, either.

I think that until we see actual orders, either for more 380s or for 748is, we can't really make much of a judgement one way or the other.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
A very reliable source has informed me that a few airlines are seriously interested in the B748I passenger model and a few orders could be expected before years end

We keep hearing this. And "seriously interested" is incredibly vague, anyway. I mean, there are so many different levels of this. For example, an airline might ask Boeing for a proposal in order to evaluate about what it might cost and what performance they might get. Does that constitute "seriously interested"? or would actively negotiating the fine print on a contract be "seriously interested"? I can buy that the former probably has any number of airlines in that column. As for the latter... it's completely unclear to me how advanced negotiations really are. Call me uncovinced until I see someone actually order the thing or some stronger information come through.

cheers.

Topic: RE: Baseler, If An Airline Wanted To Buy, We Would Bui
Username: Stitch
Posted 2006-09-20 00:33:03 and read 3625 times.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
That doesn't sound to good for the 748i IMO. It indicates that a firm order is not yet up in the air.

I still think we're about 6-12 months away from a "go/no-go" decision on whether to launch development on the 748I in conjunction with the 748F so as to attain "maximum development synergy" between them.

Boeing stopped development on the 772LR for a period of time, after all (a year? two?) due to lack of orders while forging ahead with the 773ER, so going forward on the 748F while waiting on the 748I to see if demand strengthens wouldn't be unprecedented for them.

Quote:
It also makes me wonder what the status is of the unidentified 748i.

I wonder if Boeing could use the 748F as the basis for the VIP plane. Worst case, they offer them a 773ER with a nice discount or maybe extra gold-plating on the loo.


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