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Topic: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2006-11-14 03:18:39 and read 10768 times.

A glass-is-half-full thread, to counter the other glass-is-half-empty thread  Smile

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/comp...2=comp&ArticleID=1518-1783_2029840

Quote:
"The chances that we will buy Airbus A380 are as good as ever. We have absolutely no doubt that EADS will resolve the problems surrounding the project," German newspaper Handelsblatt quoted BA chief executive Willie Walsh as saying in an advance extract of an interview to be published on Tuesday.

"There are good arguments for us to buy a few Airbus A380s," he said, adding that BA would need at least 10 of the jets to run its long-haul services efficiently.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Atnight
Posted 2006-11-14 05:34:47 and read 10578 times.

Thanks for giving a clear picture of what Willie Walsh said about the A380... so know, even though he says the A380 would slow down LHR (as said in the other half-thread), BA isn't against the idea of the A380.... they actually have come up with a number figure for what they would initially order... This just confirms what I've being thinking all along.... that the A380 will be a part of BA's fleet....

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: JakTrax
Posted 2006-11-14 05:43:14 and read 10551 times.

A real spanner in the works for all the doubters out there, methinks. Anyone who thinks the A380 is a dead horse should really think again.

I know it doesn't prove anyone right or wrong (a time will come for that) but it sure is a much-needed boost for Airbus' morale.

Karl

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: N754PR
Posted 2006-11-14 06:25:10 and read 10477 times.

Its a mess at the moment but once they solve the problems its going to sell more and more. I also think some airlines might jump in now and order it at the lower price.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2006-11-14 06:33:50 and read 10454 times.

Or he's just trying to get a better deal from Boeing. After all, isn't that what people say when it's the other way around?

I still don't think it makes sense for them, but hey, he's the chief and I'm not, so if he thinks there are 4-6 routes where they could use it effectively year round, then he must know.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-14 06:55:08 and read 10398 times.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Or he's just trying to get a better deal from Boeing. After all, isn't that what people say when it's the other way around?

I still don't think it makes sense for them, but hey, he's the chief and I'm not, so if he thinks there are 4-6 routes where they could use it effectively year round, then he must know.

Yields on one of BA's more lucrative routes LHR-HKG are getting trounced on now with so many carriers entering the fray.....

LHR-SYD/MEL, which was once one of BA's biggest routes has seen a loss of MEL and a downgrade of 1 of the 2 daily 747's to SYD down to a 777...

The same thing is on LHR-NYC..where there is so much competition now with MaxJet, and SA)">DL commencing a 2nd JFK-LGW route next year...

LHR-JNB is a big route, but even SA is saying that JNB-LHR isn't enough for them to get an A380....

That being said, there is a potential to see BA order maybe a "dozen or so" A380's down the line..but I think that would be tops............

My guess though would be on 77W and 748I...

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2006-11-14 08:44:18 and read 10242 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Thread starter):
There are good arguments for us to buy a few Airbus A380s,"

Maybe he likes the idea of reducing everyone else's capacity at LHR?  biggrin 

Regards

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: United Airline
Posted 2006-11-14 09:16:40 and read 10152 times.

What about ordering a mixture of A 380 and B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s?

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: AvObserver
Posted 2006-11-14 09:33:02 and read 10088 times.

From the article: "British Airways currently uses only Boeings but is planning to upgrade its fleet."

Really? Are all those BA A320s just sitting around as decoration at Heathrow?

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 2):
Anyone who thinks the A380 is a dead horse should really think again.

Most of us don't think it's a dead horse. Just a somewhat sickly one.  worried 

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: PM
Posted 2006-11-14 09:45:33 and read 10045 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
LHR-JNB is a big route, but even SA is saying that JNB-LHR isn't enough for them to get an A380....

Because, I think, that was their [i]only[i] route where it was needed. While it might not be cost effective for SAA to buy one or two for one route, BA would have several routes that would sustain A380s of which LHR-JNB would be one.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
That being said, there is a potential to see BA order maybe a "dozen or so" A380's down the line..but I think that would be tops............

I'm sure Airbus would not see a BA order for "a dozen" A380s as a disappointment or an insult...  Wink

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Chiad
Posted 2006-11-14 10:00:51 and read 9999 times.

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 8):
Most of us don't think it's a dead horse. Just a somewhat sickly one.

As long as it doesn't receive a round of horse medicine.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: FCKC
Posted 2006-11-14 10:01:54 and read 9999 times.

I do not see 747-8Is at BAW.
Probably they will order A380s , 777-300ERs , and 787s.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: PM
Posted 2006-11-14 10:06:59 and read 9968 times.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 11):
Probably they will order A380s , 777-300ERs , and 787s.

That would be my guess. In fact, I'd say it's almost a given. We all but know that the 777W is coming, the 787 seems almost inevitable and I'm one of those who see the A380 as likely. With their existing fleet of 777-200ERs (and 744s for a few more years) that should cover pretty much all routes. A 748i would be one new model too many - in my strictly amateur opinion.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Legoguy
Posted 2006-11-14 10:24:31 and read 9894 times.

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 8):
From the article: "British Airways currently uses only Boeings but is planning to upgrade its fleet."

Really? Are all those BA A320s just sitting around as decoration at Heathrow?

I think the article means BA's long haul fleet is all Boeing.

Despite all this, I would be wary until I see some orders confirmed for the mighty a380 by BA. I would love to see a BA colours on a 773 and a380!

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: BALAX
Posted 2006-11-14 11:39:30 and read 9689 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
The same thing is on LHR-NYC..where there is so much competition now with MaxJet, and SA)">DL commencing a 2nd JFK-LGW route next year...

DL's JFK-LGW route is not a threat to BA, 2 different airports, LHR is still preferred. The same applies to MaxJet to Stansted. I really don't see DL's route as a gold mine.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Baroque
Posted 2006-11-14 11:58:39 and read 9629 times.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 2):
Anyone who thinks the A380 is a dead horse should really think again.

It is a bit big for a horse JakTrax, dead, sick or raring to go.  angel  The saga of the A380 just rolls on and on, it is better than the average soap opera.

We should run a book on the next topics on the A380 to win over 50 posts, no hang on, they would be self-fulfilling prophesies.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: A342
Posted 2006-11-14 12:00:21 and read 9614 times.

Hm. Let's think about this. He complains about separation issues with the A380, yet he says BA should/could buy a few.
IMO, this really shows how good the A380 is, especially CASM-wise.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Revelation
Posted 2006-11-14 13:21:09 and read 9467 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Thread starter):
A glass-is-half-full thread, to counter the other glass-is-half-empty thread

Maybe the glass is twice as big as it needs to be?  Smile

Quoting N754PR (Reply 3):
Its a mess at the moment but once they solve the problems its going to sell more and more. I also think some airlines might jump in now and order it at the lower price.

Airbus is in financial trouble. Does it make sense for them to be lowering prices?

Quoting N754PR (Reply 3):
your a sad, sad man.

I think you mean "you're a sad, sad man".

Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
We should run a book on the next topics on the A380 to win over 50 posts, no hang on, they would be self-fulfilling prophesies.

Right. You go ahead and do this, and I'll start the thread: "Rumor: Airbus Workers Having Sex on A380"!  Smile

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RJ111
Posted 2006-11-14 13:58:15 and read 9371 times.

Well he's blowing hot and cold, which confirms one thing, BA are looking for new jets..... but we knew that.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
The same thing is on LHR-NYC..where there is so much competition now with MaxJet, and SA)">DL commencing a 2nd JFK-LGW route next year...

You forget to mention UA pulling out of that route though. Probably the most significant of the 3 changes to BA.

I could see a small fleet of A380s working for BA. Wouldn't pay too much attention to anything that is said up until an order goes through though.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: SparkingWave
Posted 2006-11-14 14:06:13 and read 9326 times.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Or he's just trying to get a better deal from Boeing. After all, isn't that what people say when it's the other way around?

Actually, he might be trying to get a better deal from Airbus, since they're not in the best situation right now, and they lost the sale of 10 A380s to FedEx. These carrot statements might entice Airbus, since they can't offer these planes on time at the initial profit they hoped for.

SparkingWave ~~~

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-14 16:33:37 and read 9114 times.

Quoting PM (Reply 9):
Because, I think, that was their only[i] route where it was needed. While it might not be cost effective for SAA to buy one or two for one route, BA would have several routes that would sustain A380s of which LHR-JNB would be one.

True, that is why I listed a few routes and why I think BA [i]might possibly buy the A380....

Quoting PM (Reply 9):
I'm sure Airbus would not see a BA order for "a dozen" A380s as a disappointment or an insult...  Wink

Given how Airbus (especially Leahy) incessantly claimed carriers would switch 1:1 from the B744 to the A380, selling a "dozen or so" would certainly be a disappointment or an insult..... Wink

Quoting BALAX (Reply 14):
DL's JFK-LGW route is not a threat to BA, 2 different airports, LHR is still preferred. The same applies to MaxJet to Stansted. I really don't see DL's route as a gold mine.

It still falls under "New York - London"...many many pax don't mind if its LGW, LHR, STN..even LTN.....and the fact MaxJet and Eos Airlines are still around (and expanding) shows that there are alternatives to flying LHR....not only that, the fact UA pulled out of the route just goes to show how competitive New York - London route is.....

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 18):
You forget to mention UA pulling out of that route though. Probably the most significant of the 3 changes to BA.

UA had only one flight to LHR...but there has been a net increase seats during the past year to year and a half on the New York - London route.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Timboflier215
Posted 2006-11-14 18:56:14 and read 8734 times.

Don't forget, BA, like SQ, has their planes configured in a very low-density way. IF they did get A380s, they would probably put more F and J class seats in, rather than cramming it full of economy seats. So there wouldn't be a huge increase in capacity overall, but on routes where they think they can get more premium traffic, the A380 could work well. But, to paraphrase, it ain't over until the fat lady orders (no offence BA!)

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Morvious
Posted 2006-11-14 19:06:13 and read 8593 times.

BAW was never really in the buying mood since the A380 was launched. Now they need new planes they just look better to airplanes availible and what other carriers are doing.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 20):
Given how Airbus (especially Leahy) incessantly claimed carriers would switch 1:1 from the B744 to the A380, selling a "dozen or so" would certainly be a disappointment or an insult.....

Even a 2 year old knows that the A380 is not a 1:1 replacement for the B747 at this stage. But who knows what the future will bring to aviation and airports around the world. What will be the heathow of 2030?

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: UAL777UK
Posted 2006-11-14 19:53:33 and read 8173 times.

I have said before, Willie Walsh loves Airbus having converted the EI fleet to them. I would not be surprised to see the 380 in BA's colours although, I would prefer if it was the 747-8i

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Bisbee
Posted 2006-11-14 20:12:55 and read 8010 times.

I think I have heard this kind of old cliche before, let me think???, ah yes, the old check is in the mail routine!!!

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2006-11-14 20:25:34 and read 7899 times.

OK, I know this is not very scientific, but I have flown the LHR-SFO flight four times this year, once in each season and the Planes have been at 100% load factor each time. (BA once, UA 3 times). I can't seem to remember when the last time I made a transatlantic flight was where there was an empty seat next to me. So it seems to me there probably is a market for the A380... Also, as a side note, I have decide I will not fly BA again despite the fact they have PTV's, because there "Y" seats are closer together than UA's, AND I wasn't able to select my seat till departure and I ended up with the dreaded "38-G". I won't mention the raining in the cabin either, because I guess that should belong under trip reports.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: VV701
Posted 2006-11-14 20:41:11 and read 8004 times.

Quoting Bisbee (Reply 24):
I think I have heard this kind of old cliche before, let me think???, ah yes, the old check is in the mail routine!!!

 checkmark 

And how about 'Asked if the design [of the new BA Club World cabin] would be a Virgin style herringbone format, a BA spokeswoman said "It could well be"' as reported in Travel Trade Gazette on 13 October.

So off rushed TTG to Virgin Atlantic where a spokesperson pronounced that 'Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery'.

Then on 12 November all was revealed. There was no imitation, no flattery and not a herringbone in sight in the new BA Club World cabin or anywhere else.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2006-11-14 23:46:43 and read 6671 times.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 2):
I know it doesn't prove anyone right or wrong (a time will come for that) but it sure is a much-needed boost for Airbus' morale.

And for all the many staff that work at various Airbus plants.


Quoting United Airline (Reply 7):
What about ordering a mixture of A 380 and B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s?

If BA order the A380 I think it will be complimented with the B773, not the B748. Personally I think they will go for the A380 as it would fit on certain key routes. SFO, JNB, HKG spring to mind but not JFK unless they can maintain an hourly departure ex-JFK on an evening. Maybe SIN and DXB too if they want to compete head to head and maintain the market share they currently enjoy.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-15 00:10:32 and read 6515 times.

Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 23):
I have said before, Willie Walsh loves Airbus having converted the EI fleet to them. I would not be surprised to see the 380 in BA's colours although, I would prefer if it was the 747-8i

And BA's board is huge on Boeing...including BA Chairman Martin Broughton...not to mention, at the end of the day, its the best deal which BA can get which will make the most sense..

Given the large Boeing fleet, I see BA sticking with Boeings for widebody and Airbus for narrowbody....

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2006-11-15 01:26:25 and read 6083 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
Given the large Boeing fleet, I see BA sticking with Boeings for widebody and Airbus for narrowbody....

Except that Airbus can now provide an aircraft that Boeing have no equivalent to.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-15 01:29:47 and read 6076 times.

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 29):

Except that Airbus can now provide an aircraft that Boeing have no equivalent to.

Which I'm not sure BA needs... Wink

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: ER757
Posted 2006-11-15 01:38:54 and read 6002 times.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 7):
What about ordering a mixture of A 380 and B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s?

I'd think it would be one or the other rather than both. I could definitely see them going for some A380's, but not for a few years yet. They'll let Airbus work out the kinks in the manufacturing schedule 1st and also review how it performs in real world service before plopping down the money it would cost for even a modest sized order.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Swissy
Posted 2006-11-15 01:49:26 and read 5933 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 17):
Airbus is in financial trouble.

That is relative

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 20):
Given how Airbus (especially Leahy) incessantly claimed carriers would switch 1:1 from the B744 to the A380, selling a "dozen or so" would certainly be a disappointment or an insult.....

We all agree J777 Leahy is an a.. hole and it wonders me why AB has him not given the boot..........

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 20):
It still falls under "New York - London"...many many pax don't mind if its LGW, LHR, STN..even LTN.....and the fact MaxJet and Eos Airlines are still around (and expanding) shows that there are alternatives to flying LHR....not only that, the fact UA pulled out of the route just goes to show how competitive New York - London route is.....

Right on the money

Quoting Timboflier215 (Reply 21):
Don't forget, BA, like SQ, has their planes configured in a very low-density way. IF they did get A380s, they would probably put more F and J class seats in, rather than cramming it full of economy seats. So there wouldn't be a huge increase in capacity overall, but on routes where they think they can get more premium traffic, the A380 could work well.

And that is were the bling bling is....

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 27):
If BA order the A380 I think it will be complimented with the B773, not the B748.

Agree 100%

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
And BA's board is huge on Boeing...including BA Chairman Martin Broughton...not to mention, at the end of the day, its the best deal which BA can get which will make the most sense..

Given the large Boeing fleet, I see BA sticking with Boeings for widebody and Airbus for narrowbody....

Friendship stops when money has to be made, BA will buy what makes them the most money, remember A-bus had nothing to offer prior the 380, so the chances are very good that BA will take some (12) 380.... for starters...

Cheers,

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: AA1818
Posted 2006-11-15 02:02:29 and read 5862 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
My guess though would be on 77W and 748I



Quoting FCKC (Reply 11):
Probably they will order A380s , 777-300ERs , and 787s.

I agree think that the 77W and A380 are probably most likely options, but something in my gut tells me that BA need a 748i more than an A380 or 77W.
- the 748i increases capacity while not overdoing the capacity a la A380
- the A380/ 77W is perhaps not a compelling replacement for the 744s since the 744's capacity is actually needed for many routes, but the A380 will be too big.

I think BA will buy what is best for them, but I would expect some route alterations/ frequency changes perhaps if they opt for the 77W and A380, which would be quite a nice combinations as a long haul fleet, along with A358s or B789s.

AA1818

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RedChili
Posted 2006-11-15 02:11:51 and read 5808 times.

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 8):
From the article: "British Airways currently uses only Boeings but is planning to upgrade its fleet."

That was a really hilarious sentence. It sounds like Boeings are bad airplanes and that you can "upgrade" from a Boeing to an Airbus.

Quoting A342 (Reply 16):
Hm. Let's think about this. He complains about separation issues with the A380, yet he says BA should/could buy a few.

You should read it in the correct context. The separation issue statement was not a complaint about the A380, but a speech where he was trying to say why LHR needs a third runway. In that context, Walsh was trying to prove that LHR will have big problems in the future and "even buying the A380 won't help." He was not speaking to his board concerning whether BA should buy the bird or not.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 31):
I could definitely see them going for some A380's, but not for a few years yet.

Don't worry, the A380 won't be available for a few years anyway.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RedChili
Posted 2006-11-15 02:25:16 and read 5729 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
Don't worry, the A380 won't be available for a few years anyway.

Just to put things into perspective:

If BA would order the A380 today, they would probably not get any airplanes until 2012 because of all the production problems.

From now until 2012, the number of airplane passengers worldwide will have grown by approximately 26 percent (if the current growth continues). The A380 has 33 percent more seats than the 744. The 748 has 12 percent more seats than the 744. So if BA wants to keep their market share, they will have to buy the biggest airplane available.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: United Airline
Posted 2006-11-15 03:28:29 and read 5446 times.

I think it's either one too.

I suppose they will stick to Boeing for widebodies and Airbus for narrowbodies and will order the B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Mariner
Posted 2006-11-15 04:04:05 and read 5386 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 32):
We all agree J777 Leahy is an a..

We "all" agree?

Sorry, I don't agree.

mariner

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2006-11-15 09:08:12 and read 5226 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 32):
We all agree J777 Leahy is an a.. hole and it wonders me why AB has him not given the boot..........

Are you serious?

Given the utter mess Airbus finds itself in, the fact that they have not only managed to keep most of their A380 and potential A350XWB customers on-side for so long, but also managed to sell a whole lot of aircraft this year, is a monumental testament to the skills and abilites of this man, and the value he brings to Airbus.
And he achieves this whilst the organisation behind him still does its level best to shoot his efforts in the foot.

"Leahy is quiet - wonder what he's up to?".

See above - he's the busiest Exec at Airbus  yes 
Would you want his job, just now?  no 


Regards

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2006-11-15 09:32:41 and read 5183 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 35):
From now until 2012, the number of airplane passengers worldwide will have grown by approximately 26 percent (if the current growth continues). The A380 has 33 percent more seats than the 744. The 748 has 12 percent more seats than the 744. So if BA wants to keep their market share, they will have to buy the biggest airplane available

This is a point that I have tried to make in other previous threads but I was not quite this clear.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
Given the large Boeing fleet, I see BA sticking with Boeings for widebody and Airbus for narrowbody....

The problem with this is it reduces BA's bargaining power should the stick with such a principle long term.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-15 14:39:58 and read 5034 times.

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 39):

The problem with this is it reduces BA's bargaining power should the stick with such a principle long term.

When BA speaks, Boeing listens....Boeing knows the intrinsic (as well as profit) values of landing a carrier such as BA with a large order.....

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: AirbusA6
Posted 2006-11-15 14:49:26 and read 5013 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
Given the large Boeing fleet, I see BA sticking with Boeings for widebody and Airbus for narrowbody....

If Boeing introduced a brilliant 737 replacement, and BA said "sorry we're not considering it because our narrowbody fleet is all Airbus" it would be nonsense, similarly their current Boeing widebody fleet can't determine future orders.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 40):
When BA speaks, Boeing listens....Boeing knows the intrinsic (as well as profit) values of landing a carrier such as BA with a large order.....

The large A32xx order shows that Airbus listens too. Both Airbus and Boeing desperately want to win this order!

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-15 14:55:18 and read 4992 times.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 41):
If Boeing introduced a brilliant 737 replacement, and BA said "sorry we're not considering it because our narrowbody fleet is all Airbus" it would be nonsense, similarly their current Boeing widebody fleet can't determine future orders.

How about being practical. What 737 is Boeing offering that will beat the economics of BA's A32X? None.....

not to mention, I've already stated....

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
...not to mention, at the end of the day, its the best deal which BA can get which will make the most sense..

The fact BA has a very large Boeing crew is something which will be taken into consideration.....as it would cost a lot of money to requalify them to Airbus planes....

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 41):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 40):
When BA speaks, Boeing listens....Boeing knows the intrinsic (as well as profit) values of landing a carrier such as BA with a large order.....

The large A32xx order shows that Airbus listens too. Both Airbus and Boeing desperately want to win this order!

Right now, at least to me, it seems Boeing is offering the family of planes which suits BA, especially given that BA has slots for 10 777's which it retook.....

Cheers..

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Pope
Posted 2006-11-15 18:04:32 and read 4879 times.

I know that T5 at LHR is going to be A380 compatible, but what is the effective limit of the number of A380's that could operate at LHR at any one time due to gate space, passenger processing limitations?

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: United Airline
Posted 2006-11-15 19:41:32 and read 4799 times.

I suppose this is a move to negotiate a better deal with Boeing on the B 748i

Anyway according to Rod Eddington the B 747-400s will stay for another 10 years. Will they get new first/business/economy class seats? And AVOD in Economy?

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Swissy
Posted 2006-11-15 23:36:55 and read 4684 times.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
Are you serious?

Sure I am  yes 

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
"Leahy is quiet - wonder what he's up to?".

It is time he is quiet

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
And he achieves this whilst the organisation behind him still does its level best to shoot his efforts in the foot.

If he did not have such an unreasonable mouth...... he probably shot himself in the foot and now he is quiet.... finally

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
We "all" agree?

Sorry, I don't agree.

Apologies to all of you which have a different opinion about big "L"

Let me change it to "some of us"  Wink

Cheers,

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2006-11-16 00:22:49 and read 4646 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Thread starter):
A glass-is-half-full thread, to counter the other glass-is-half-empty thread

Well, that cute girl down in accounting tells me my chances are "as good as ever"...but I'm not so sure that means the glass is half full.  optimist 

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RedChili
Posted 2006-11-16 00:46:58 and read 4607 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 45):
If he did not have such an unreasonable mouth...... he probably shot himself in the foot and now he is quiet.... finally

If you continue raving about Leahy like this, I will put you on my "disrespectful users" list. I just read in Seattle Times that Leahy had heart surgery recently.

Just before he had surgery, he spent three nights on airplanes flying to Australia to keep Qantas happy. He's sacrificing his own health to keep the A380 customers. Now, that's what I call a good salesman!

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RTFM
Posted 2006-11-16 00:47:55 and read 4609 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 35):
From now until 2012, the number of airplane passengers worldwide will have grown by approximately 26 percent (if the current growth continues). The A380 has 33 percent more seats than the 744. The 748 has 12 percent more seats than the 744. So if BA wants to keep their market share, they will have to buy the biggest airplane available.

That's too simplistic an argument and does not necessarily hold. It rather depends on where the growth is going to come and what segment of the market. So if there is a larger growth in low cost travel or say intra-Asia travel then neither of those are BA's prime markets.

Remember that BA's strategy has been to focus on the higher yielding end of the market; some of that you can grow by changing the mix on your a/c; making a big leap from 744 to an A380 might mean you end up having to discount the back end too much to fill it up, so diluting your yields.

I don't really know what BA are going to end up with (but my guess is that 77W and 787s are going to be in the mix somewhere) but you can't just say overall pax growth forecasts mean BA are going to have to buy the biggest pax a/c out there...

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Dank
Posted 2006-11-16 01:01:50 and read 4587 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 45):
Sure I am   

And why do you think he is an a**hole? Because he spins the facts to sell airplanes? He's a salesman not a reporter. And he happens to be a pretty good salesman. You don't think that Boeing does the same exact thing? Give me a break.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RedChili
Posted 2006-11-16 20:01:30 and read 4527 times.

Quoting RTFM (Reply 48):
That's too simplistic an argument and does not necessarily hold.

I understand your point and I agree that you have to look at those specific markets that BA target. But still, the current trend is that the number of airplane passengers is increasing all over the board, also in those markets that BA serves.

Quoting RTFM (Reply 48):
making a big leap from 744 to an A380 might mean you end up having to discount the back end too much to fill it up, so diluting your yields.

Even if you don't make the upgrade, the yield can still fall if your competitors increase their seats. Just look at the past ten years in intra-European flights. BA is basically flying with the same size of airplanes today as ten years ago, but the yield has fallen because of Ryanair, Easyjet and other similar airlines that launched tons of flights from London.

If you keep saying that "we will stick to our core market and use smaller airplanes to keep the yields up," you might end up in a situation where that core market in the end will be very small.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: AirbusA6
Posted 2006-11-16 20:09:58 and read 4529 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 42):
Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 41):
If Boeing introduced a brilliant 737 replacement, and BA said "sorry we're not considering it because our narrowbody fleet is all Airbus" it would be nonsense, similarly their current Boeing widebody fleet can't determine future orders.

How about being practical. What 737 is Boeing offering that will beat the economics of BA's A32X? None.....

I wasn't talking about the current 737, but a future 737 replacement. There will be one, it will be better than the current A320, and if Airbus aren't able to match it, with a replacement A320, I'm sure many current operators of narrowbody Airbus planes will switch. Similarly, just because BA uses current Boeing widebodies, if Airbus offers the right product, BA will switch. Their 767/777/747 fleet numbers well over 100 in total...

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Swissy
Posted 2006-11-16 21:39:06 and read 4104 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 47):
If you continue raving about Leahy like this, I will put you on my "disrespectful users" list. I just read in Seattle Times that Leahy had heart surgery recently.

Well my friend that is my own opinion, but do what you have to do....

Quoting Dank (Reply 49):
And why do you think he is an a**hole? Because he spins the facts to sell airplanes? He's a salesman not a reporter. And he happens to be a pretty good salesman. You don't think that Boeing does the same exact thing?

Well he is closer to be a clown now with all the bs at AB, last time I checked airlines are buying the product because they want/need to and not because of big "L", or lets say it that way: airlines I work with never bought an AB product because of big "L"..... thats all.

Cheers,

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Geo772
Posted 2006-11-16 21:50:59 and read 4099 times.

Nothing is certain on what BA will order or when it will place the order.
I don't think BA will be overly concerned about the operation of the A380 at Heathrow, T5 has quite a few A380 capable stands and from the looks of things the passenger handling facilities to go with them. The issue will be whether BA could operate the aircraft where it wanted and when it wanted, something that is easy to do at the moment with the B744 and 777 fleets. The 748i will be easier to operate to airports that currently accept the 744 than the A380.

Personally I reckon the A380 would work quite well on some routes.

BA currently has delivery slots reserved for some 777s, it would make sense for BA to use these as it will provide expansion with an aircraft type that would be simple to integrate into the existing 777 fleet.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RTFM
Posted 2006-11-17 04:25:54 and read 3941 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 50):
Even if you don't make the upgrade, the yield can still fall if your competitors increase their seats. Just look at the past ten years in intra-European flights. BA is basically flying with the same size of airplanes today as ten years ago, but the yield has fallen because of Ryanair, Easyjet and other similar airlines that launched tons of flights from London.

If you keep saying that "we will stick to our core market and use smaller airplanes to keep the yields up," you might end up in a situation where that core market in the end will be very small.

But BA is not basically flying with the same size of airplanes as ten years ago in intra-European flights, primarily because of the reasons I stated. The number of SH 767s has decreased (transferred to L/H or QF), the number of 757s has decreased (sold to DHL) and the fleet is now predominantly A320/A319 at LHR (with some A321, 757 & 767) and 734/5 at LGW.

BA has reduced mainline capacity in Europe over the past 10 years; it has attempted to focus on high frequency business travel from LHR and high end business/leisure from LGW. No doubt yield has been impacted by EZ, FR (& others) but to allege that BA has not reacted to this and has essentially kept the same level of supply is incorrect.

On the second point, I would pose this question - if your core market is small but profitable why would you worry?

Of course the real world is not as simple as this, however, BA have made it clear that their strategy is to focus on high(er) frequency and premium travel (across all classes), primarily from LHR but also from LGW and other UK airports where it profitable and they will use whatever a/c types that best suit their business model.

That is why I don't specifically don't exclude any a/c type from this model - I am sure that if BA can make a business case for A380s that will fit into this model they wil buy it. However might I make the following observations on the BA A380/748i debate:

BA has a significant number of 744s; while I think that there are some routes where these could be replaced by 77W, there are also routes where a replacement would have to be of a similar/larger size. This therefore only leaves B748i or A380.

The arguments for/against A380 for BA (which you can therefore extrapolate for/against B748i) are:

For A380:
Higher capacity
Lower purchase cost (this of course is based on a purely personal opinion that Airbus needs to discount sell the A380 more than Boeing needs to discount sell the 748i; if this assumption is incorrect, then it negates this argument.)
Better internal space utilisation ability - this is very subjective and is based on an assumption that only 'modern' a/c allow you to fit the 'best' interior. In practice this is highly dependent on individual airline product, how much the customer values the product differentiation. It can be negated somewhat by putting forward the hypothesis of the 707 with a VIP interior fit-out... (i.e the external shape of the a/c does not necessarily dictate the external configuration?

Against A380 (for B748i):

Higher CASM
Limited airport use; although the number of A380 capable airports will no doubt increase over the next 10-20 years, there are still a fixed number of airports that will be able to handle the A380 vs B748i; this will also have the effect of making the B748i a more flexible proposition for BA.
Limited flexibility - (see above); the A380 will be limited to certain compatible airports
The 748i will be able to operate to any airport that can currently handle B744.
Pilot type rating - the A380 would be the only widebody Airbus in the BA fleet. It would therefore require a specific, type-rated pool of flight crew.
Ground equipment - at present BA have no intention to handle other A380 carriers at LHR ( including QF in T3)

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Stitch
Posted 2006-11-17 04:38:07 and read 3940 times.

I'm pretty sure the 777-300ER is in BA's future.

The trick will be how deep Boeing is willing to discount to add the 747-8I to that order versus how deep Airbus is willing to discount to place the A380-800.

Neither are going to want to go "crazy" (30%-35%) as it sets a negative precedent for future orders. A 20% discount doesn't strike me as unreasonable for BA to ask and Airbus and Boeing to agree to.

One advantage to the smaller 748I is that it offers BA more flexibility in fleet planning. They can fly 748s during the "high season" and 773s during the "low season". Yes, the A388 can do the same. And if BA always has a strong "high season" somewhere in the world year-round, then the A388 would make more sense. But if that demand has some "slack times", a 748I would be easier (or at least less expensive due to less need to discount) to fill...

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RIX
Posted 2006-11-17 22:31:33 and read 3728 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 47):
He's sacrificing his own health to keep the A380 customers. Now, that's what I call a good salesman!

- that's what I call bastards top level managers and politicians that created situation when a person has to "sacrifice his own health". Sacrificing health for business... for 5-years plan... during fight for harvest... am I reading Pravda newspaper? Plus, whatever heroic (silly on my opinion... wish him to recover soon) things he does, "unreasonable mouth" is right about him.

Quoting Dank (Reply 49):
You don't think that Boeing does the same exact thing? Give me a break.

- give an example of anything remotely comparable to anything from "Boeing must dream about their 'Dreamliner'" to "Chinese copy" that comes from Boeing. Then enjoy your break.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Swissy
Posted 2006-11-17 22:41:35 and read 3714 times.

Quoting RIX (Reply 56):
- that's what I call bastards top level managers and politicians that created situation when a person has to "sacrifice his own health". Sacrificing health for business... for 5-years plan... during fight for harvest... am I reading Pravda newspaper? Plus, whatever heroic (silly on my opinion... wish him to recover soon) things he does, "unreasonable mouth" is right about him.

Agree, I wish him a speedy recovery and wish him all the best, but do you guys really think BA would buy the 380 because Big "L" is such a great salesman? I guess if you think that way it would be an insult to BA or the others.... and that was my point.

BA will acquire whatever aircraft they need and I hope we will get some answers soon.

Cheers,

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RIX
Posted 2006-11-18 00:16:36 and read 3629 times.

I don't contradict your point... I actually was trying to contradict those who were contradicting you  Smile... Well, as long you quoted me in your post...

Cheers!

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: VV701
Posted 2006-11-18 00:37:26 and read 3602 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 35):
From now until 2012, the number of airplane passengers worldwide will have grown by approximately 26 percent (if the current growth continues). The A380 has 33 percent more seats than the 744. The 748 has 12 percent more seats than the 744. So if BA wants to keep their market share, they will have to buy the biggest airplane available.

BA is clearly interested in revenue and profit and disinterested in market share. Otherwise it would not have announced at the beginning of this week that it was increasing the size of its Club World cabins in all its Lo-J 744s by 14 seats at the expense of its World Traveller cabin.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 44):
Anyway according to Rod Eddington the B 747-400s will stay for another 10 years. Will they get new first/business/economy class seats?

The first to get new Club World lay-flat seats 25 per cent wider than the current seat, G-BNLN, is sitting on the ramp at LHR waiting to go into service towards the end of the month. It was 'revealed' on Monday and I saw it today. The new First Class cabin is due next year.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Dank
Posted 2006-11-18 00:41:10 and read 3595 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 52):
Well he is closer to be a clown now with all the bs at AB, last time I checked airlines are buying the product because they want/need to and not because of big "L", or lets say it that way: airlines I work with never bought an AB product because of big "L"..... thats all.

You don't think that JL has anything to do with how they put together deals and how they strategize selling planes? And spinning his product and spinning the other guy's product to suggest why his plane is the best one for them? If you think that none of those things play a role (and it gets his product in the news, to boot, which clearly does have a value, why else would boeing advertise their commercial aircraft in things other than publications targetting only airline executives?). If you think that Boeing doesn't spin things (just look at Randy's blog) to make his plane look good and the equivalent airbus look bad, i think you are deluding yourself. And more to the point, I can't figure out why JL is such a lightning rod. What difference does it make if he spins things his way? If an airline can't see what is the reality (e.g. seatcounts for their configurations) for their uses, then you have to question them. It isn't like these contracts aren't going to have guarantees, etc. put into them. When you watch ads on tv do you think that the advertisers are doing a bad job because they may twist facts to sell the product?

cheers.

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Swissy
Posted 2006-11-18 01:15:33 and read 3550 times.

RIX, thank you for clearing it up and apologies for not getting your point right away....... (too much work before x-mas)

Dank, I am very well aware of m/s (marketing/sales) and I never said B is not doing it the same/different way, I know it is a big soap opera (shame) but thats how business is being done, I know....
However people I work with are very intelligent people within the industry and they would never ever by AB because of what JL is announcing (squawking) and I do realize my opinion is based on the environment I work in since 1988.......

So again, BA will buy the 380 if they can see making money with it and I hope we will have an answer soon and can put that issue to rest.

Cheers,

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2006-11-18 01:25:03 and read 3544 times.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 51):
Their 767/777/747 fleet numbers well over 100 in total...

...don't you think it would be expensive to retrain those pilots to fly the Airbus birds? I doubt BA is going to do that and/or fire pilots and then get Airbus-trained pilots...the Pilots Union (and Amicus) would have a field day...

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 53):

Personally I reckon the A380 would work quite well on some routes.

certainly..but only a handful of routes on a daily basis....where as the 748I provides more flexibility and that is the hallmark of BA's strategy over the years...

Look at ORD for example..it goes 777/747/777 during peak seaon, and now its a 777/767/777 (used to be all 777s), and then it will go back to 777/747/777 next summer....

LHR-MEL has been axed and LHR-SYD has gone from 2x/daily 747's to a 747 and a 777...if anyone made these predictions 5 years ago would have been laughed at...

Even LAX goes from 3x/747 during peak season to 2x/747 during the winter..

HKG-LHR-HKG is being served by a number of carriers..yields will start to decrease.....the same goes for LHR-New York City...

How many "bread and butter" routes does that lead to? JNB? NRT? MIA?

Frequency and yields are what BA focus on....BA is well happy leaving the last few low-yielding pax to other carriers..

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 53):
BA currently has delivery slots reserved for some 777s, it would make sense for BA to use these as it will provide expansion with an aircraft type that would be simple to integrate into the existing 777 fleet.

 checkmark 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 55):
One advantage to the smaller 748I is that it offers BA more flexibility in fleet planning. They can fly 748s during the "high season" and 773s during the "low season". Yes, the A388 can do the same. And if BA always has a strong "high season" somewhere in the world year-round, then the A388 would make more sense. But if that demand has some "slack times", a 748I would be easier (or at least less expensive due to less need to discount) to fill...

 checkmark ...as I mentioned above...flexibility

Cheers...

Topic: RE: Willie Walsh: A380 Chances 'As Good As Ever'
Username: RedChili
Posted 2006-11-18 10:32:43 and read 3445 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 59):
BA is clearly interested in revenue and profit and disinterested in market share.

BA is interested in profit, yes. BA is disinterested in market share, no! If it was true that BA is disinterested in market share and only in profit, they would announce plans immediately to sell out all 747s and 777s and only operate 787s in the future. That would maximize their profits, but they would lose a lot of the market.

Every businessman in this world is interested in increasing his share of the market, and that includes the people running BA. If a businessman would say that "I don't care about market share, only about profits," then in the end his business would end up being very small indeed.

Now, having said that, I realize that there are times when you need to adjust your production, and there are times when you need to reduce output on specific routes where the competition is giving you a hard time. But that doesn't mean that your long-range plans indicate that you don't care about market share. Whatever airplanes BA will buy, they will use them for more than 20 years into the future, and that is a time period when air traffic is predicted to double.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 59):
Otherwise it would not have announced at the beginning of this week that it was increasing the size of its Club World cabins in all its Lo-J 744s by 14 seats at the expense of its World Traveller cabin.

The fact that they're increasing the size of the business cabin is not a proof that they don't care about market share. It's simply that BA (and all other airlines) know that business class generates more profits than economy class.


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