Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3221200/

Topic: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2007-01-25 07:23:57 and read 3866 times.

Is there any possibility we will see LAX-GRU nonstop at any point in the foreseeable future? I think if an airline would do it, it would probably be TAM or another Brazilian airline. I dont think the domestic airlines would be interested.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2007-01-25 07:28:00 and read 3866 times.

In my opinion, no, there is not a possibility anytime soon. Ocean Air has been claiming they want to fly LAX-BOG-GRU, but we'll see if that ever happens.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: AirCanada014
Posted 2007-01-25 12:41:41 and read 3770 times.

I wonder if AC uses their 5th freedom right its possible they could do YVR-LAX-GRU??? They are waiting for approval from the Australian government to do YZZ-LAX-SYD..

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: Centrair
Posted 2007-01-25 13:03:30 and read 3755 times.

Maybe JL will try it when they relaunch NGO-LAX after the 787s come in. JL stated last year that they plan on rebuilding their LAX hub (never knew it was one). But it sounds that JL might even move JFK-GRU to YYZ-GRU or something like that.

However with a plane the size of the 787, LAX-GRU could be affordable and profitable...even for JL.

But I would say TAM has a much better bet.

One more might be DL. If they try do rebuild their LAX hub, I would sure like to see them connect Asia to South America and Western US.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: 2travel2know
Posted 2007-01-25 13:24:14 and read 3735 times.

I would think that GRU-LAX could be a route for SA as a JNB (or CPT) - GRU tag-on.
JL flying LAX-GRU will have the problem of requiring U.S. visas for the Japan-Brazil passengers.
Now with its U.S. expansion, I think JJ may be looking into GRU-LAX.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2007-01-25 16:21:09 and read 3655 times.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 3):
Maybe JL will try it when they relaunch NGO-LAX after the 787s come in. JL stated last year that they plan on rebuilding their LAX hub (never knew it was one). But it sounds that JL might even move JFK-GRU to YYZ-GRU or something like that

What about ANA ? They said in Brazil that probably in 2008 they could fly to Brazil with own metal !

Quoting Centrair (Reply 3):
But I would say TAM has a much better bet.

I doubt. They saw RG numbers for LAX route during the last year auction for RG and probably realize:
- They need a partnership with a Japanease carrier to feed the route (and they already keep this on their CDG Flagship route with 3 daily flight).
- They need also some domestic connections (as a * Alliance member, RG could use SA)">UA and US to reach domestic destinations in the United States, and SA)">AA, their partnership, does not keep a strong operation at LAX)

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 4):
I would think that GRU-LAX could be a route for SA as a JNB (or CPT) - GRU tag-on

I'm not so sure about the bilateral allowing such kind of flights.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 3):
One more might be DL. If they try do rebuild their LAX hub, I would sure like to see them connect Asia to South America and Western US

IMO, if DL obtain more 7 frequencies, probably will run a JFK-GIG flight. Their problem is the lack of frequencies.

Felipe

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: Venezuela747
Posted 2007-01-25 16:37:21 and read 3642 times.

It would probably make more sense to have a stop between LAX and GRU....say LAX-MEX-GRU, LAX-CCS-GRU, LAX-BOG-GRU.....maybe AA will jump to that option

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2007-01-25 19:19:54 and read 3562 times.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 4):
I would think that GRU-LAX could be a route for SA as a JNB (or CPT) - GRU tag-on.

This occured to me as well. They could better serve both Brazil and South Africa as well. I would sure like to see LAX see SAA thorugh GRU. For those of us on the west coast and particularly Southern California its is a lot quicker to go through South America to get to South Africa than to go through the east coast. Kill two birds with one stone!!!

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: Yellowtail
Posted 2007-01-25 21:15:34 and read 3492 times.

One would think that 2 of the largest cities in the world could fill at least one 767 a day each way...

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2007-01-25 21:25:23 and read 3484 times.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 8):
One would think that 2 of the largest cities in the world could fill at least one 767 a day each way...

The problem is not filling a plane, it often isn't. It is making money filling the plane.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: B752OS
Posted 2007-01-25 21:44:51 and read 3461 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 9):
The problem is not filling a plane, it often isn't. It is making money filling the plane.

Does AV does well with their LAX service? That is yields. Everytime I have driven by terminal 2 in the early evening, the line is very very long at the AV counter, so I assume the flight has pretty good loads.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: C010T3
Posted 2007-01-25 21:52:18 and read 3448 times.

I never understood why UA chose to run a second IAD-GRU instead of LAX/SFO-GRU.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2007-01-25 22:01:23 and read 3440 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 11):
I never understood why UA chose to run a second IAD-GRU instead of LAX/SFO-GRU.

Short-term outlook, which was maybe forced on them by post-911 and South American economics. A veteran of Panagra/Braniff/Eastern told me that South American routes are not consistently profitable, but are very profitable overall. Lose a little one year, make a lot another. UA, it seems, got tired of waiting for the good times.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: Laxintl
Posted 2007-01-25 23:40:44 and read 3375 times.

Quoting B752OS (Reply 10):
Does AV does well with their LAX service?

Since resuming service to LAX, last summer AV has averaged 127 passengers per flights. While there have been a few B757 substitutions by far most flight have been on the the 762 which would equal a 72.6% load factor. Definitely not a bad start for only the first 6 months.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 11):
I never understood why UA chose to run a second IAD-GRU instead of LAX/SFO-GRU.

Multiple reasons.

To start with UA has self admittedly poorly positioned hubs to serve South America. While California might be a logical connecting point, its not quite feasible for UA to run the market. The most logical aircraft based on passenger demand is the 767-300. However the UA 763s cannot operate any trip beyond 12 hours scheduled block time due to a lack of crew rest facilities which are required per the FAA. In addition the cargo capacity would be near zero on such far deep South America flying from CA even without the crew rest roadblock. As such the only viable aircraft UA could assign would be the 777 or 744, however neither is supportable long term year round from a passenger angle.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 12):
Short-term outlook, which was maybe forced on them by post-911 and South American economics. A veteran of Panagra/Braniff/Eastern told me that South American routes are not consistently profitable, but are very profitable overall. Lose a little one year, make a lot another. UA, it seems, got tired of waiting for the good times.

UA deep South America network has been in the red consistently since 2000. Its somewhat sad, considering the constant growth in the region, however UA simply has been unable to capitalize on this and has had to draw down flying thru the years including dropping of its MIA mini-hub.
With the current general lack of widebody capacity and the regions loss making state, South America is clearly not a network priority. When its comes down to a crunch equipment is getting robbed out of the region as was done recently with the late announcement that ORD-EZE was not resume this winter.

Topic: RE: When Will We See LAX-GRU Again?
Username: WorldTraveler
Posted 2007-01-26 02:25:27 and read 3283 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 12):
A veteran of Panagra/Braniff/Eastern told me that South American routes are not consistently profitable, but are very profitable overall. Lose a little one year, make a lot another. UA, it seems, got tired of waiting for the good times.

Latin America has changed a heck of alot since those days.... Latin American economies have "grown up" and are growing at hefty rates - and those routes are profitable, esp. to/from Brazil which is the economic center of Latin America.

We may well see DL start additional service to GRU and they will probably do it by adding gateways. As 764s come into service, DL could well increase capacity to Brazil by increasing the size of its planes and shift some of the existing flights to new gateways.

UA simply doesn't have the network structure to compete in Latin America - which is one reason why a merger w/ CO makes alot of sense. In the meantime, UA will maintain the smallest size in Latin America it can to say it competes in the market and tie up the slots from being used by someone else.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/