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Topic: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Kbdude
Posted 2007-04-20 18:11:36 and read 10603 times.

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=8656

from the article:
"Meanwhile, the industry is expecting GECAS to come aboard the 787 program, and Lufthansa and British Airways are understood to be more interested in the higher capacity of the 787-9 or A350-800. Sales of the 787 now sit at 567, with industry observers suggesting orders will approach the 700 mark by rollout on July 8"

2 questions:

1. Boeing Order website has the 787 firm order count at 544 firm from 43 customers. Where did this 567 firm order count come from? I thought Boeing is supposed to post on website as soon as order is firm, how do ATW know about firm orders that are not accounted for.
2. 700 firm orders by rollout...!!!???? Must be a typo..., ~150 additional orders in 2.5 months..... possible, but not likely. Is it?

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-04-20 18:14:00 and read 10598 times.

Boeing's totals are updated monthly, so orders secured after 03.31.07 will not be included until 04.30.07.

Boeing has sold an additional 30(?) planes since then, so the totals are probably above 567 by now.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: LHStarAlliance
Posted 2007-04-20 18:15:10 and read 10585 times.

Wow just amazing how good this A/C is selling ! Really great job of Boeing ... !

Can´t wait to see the 50+ LH order  cloudnine   cloudnine 

Konstantin

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: DAYflyer
Posted 2007-04-20 18:19:16 and read 10532 times.

700 by roll out is entirely possible:

If AA, LH or another major carrier places a large order, they could see this happen.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Legoguy
Posted 2007-04-20 18:24:12 and read 10482 times.

I do believe we will see 700+ orders by July, or by the end of summer at least. It just depends when Lufthansa and BA place order, and whether they choose Airbus or Boeing.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AirFrnt
Posted 2007-04-20 18:32:51 and read 10414 times.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
2. 700 firm orders by rollout...!!!???? Must be a typo..., ~150 additional orders in 2.5 months..... possible, but not likely. Is it?

It's kind of shocking (kind of? Completely shocking) but they are within striking distance of it. Between BA, AA, DL who are rumoured to be at the table right now, and news that QF, CO and NW want more they might just make it.

Flash back three years ago, and remember how hard of a time Boeing had with the decision to actually launch this plane? On the other hand, if the EK deal is correct, Airbus is willing to shred their margin to keep enough of the market free so that the A350 has a chance. If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: NYC777
Posted 2007-04-20 18:47:18 and read 10303 times.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
1. Boeing Order website has the 787 firm order count at 544 firm from 43 customers. Where did this 567 firm order count come from? I thought Boeing is supposed to post on website as soon as order is firm, how do ATW know about firm orders that are not accounted for.

Actually the 23 are unfirmed LoIs:

10 for Garuda Indonesia
10 for Hong Kong Air
3 for China (reallocating the 3 that Xiamen cancelled in favor of 6 737s, China has to reallocate those three to a different carrier).

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Rpaillard
Posted 2007-04-20 19:00:21 and read 10183 times.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
possible, but not likely. Is it?

Do not underestimate the Paris Air Show Factor. Add the yet to come sooner than later orders from USA legacies, plus other "majors" still looking at the bird (well birds, add the A350): AF, LH, EK, ...

Definitively doable, yet quite amazing for a still-to-take-off plane. Big Up Boeing.

Raphael

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: CygnusChicago
Posted 2007-04-20 19:09:53 and read 10121 times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

Totally agree. Boeing has done an amazing job with this. I hope that Airbus realizes they've missed the boat on this one, and don't build this "me too" aircraft. The A350 overlaps with both the 787 and the 777, they have already lost the major 787 orders (will definitely not get the US carriers), and the existing 777 fleets are still too young. In my opinion, they should let the A350 die, wait a few years, and build an amazing A3EE timed to enter service when the 777 replacement does. I was so disappointed the way they reacted. If they'd re-engined the A330, and slashed the prices (like they're doing now with the A350), they could have retained a major market share without pouring billions and billions down the drain, and not damaged their brand so much. Reaction is rarely a good strategy. Hopefully they're more thoughtful about the next gen A320 class.

I can't wait to fly on the 787, I'm so sick of AA's cramped 777's and 767's.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: LHStarAlliance
Posted 2007-04-20 19:12:04 and read 10099 times.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):

Well wait until EK places next week the 100 order  Wink

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: N844AA
Posted 2007-04-20 19:27:13 and read 9986 times.

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 9):
Well wait until EK places next week the 100 order

Is this the one that was reportedly discounted by more than 50%?

What was the deal Bob Crandall got on the MD-80s? Buy two, get one free? If I'm thinking of the right reports here, this Emirates deal would seem to be even more favorable. Good negotiating, EK.  thumbsup 

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: WestWing
Posted 2007-04-20 19:58:22 and read 9831 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Boeing's totals are updated monthly, so orders secured after 03.31.07 will not be included until 04.30.07.
Boeing has sold an additional 30(?) planes since then, so the totals are probably above 567 by now.

Not quite. The end-March number was 514. The much-discussed 30 UFOs made the total 544.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
Where did this 567 firm order count come from?

From the Wikipedia page that lists 23 additional commitments which are not yet firm orders.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-04-20 20:56:11 and read 9591 times.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):
I can't wait to fly on the 787, I'm so sick of AA's cramped 777's and 767's.

You think they'll have lower seat density on the 787? I think I might have a bridge I can sell you. wink 

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

But the A350 is already launched. confused 

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AirFrnt
Posted 2007-04-20 21:01:24 and read 9575 times.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):
But the A350 is already launched. confused

Yep, and only time and sales will reveal if that was the right decision.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2007-04-20 21:01:29 and read 9575 times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

While I respect your postings generally, this one strikes me as a reach too far. The A350XWB is already moving forward, and if the rumored EK order is true (which is very plausible) along with commitments from QR et al, then I simply do not see them "pulling the plug" on what will likely be an incredible aircraft.

-Dave

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: DeltaDC9
Posted 2007-04-20 21:10:59 and read 9440 times.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
I thought Boeing is supposed to post on website as soon as order is firm, how do ATW know about firm orders that are not accounted for



Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Boeing's totals are updated monthly, so orders secured after 03.31.07 will not be included until 04.30.07.

Boeing updates their orders website every Thursday morning with frim orders only, right?

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-04-20 21:16:00 and read 9373 times.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 15):
Boeing updates their orders website every Thursday morning with frim orders only, right?

Yes. I was thinking of the "User Defined Reports" when I wrote that.  embarrassed 

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: EA772LR
Posted 2007-04-20 21:19:30 and read 9309 times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
"If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350"

Though I feel this would be farfetched at this point, I do think you make a very good point. I mean, if Mr. Leahy had not been overly confident in the A330, then Airbus (possibly, i.e. the A380 fiasco) could have launched the A350 close to when Boeing launched the 7E7. If this had happened, I seriously doubt that Boeing would be at 567 787's by now, (not that I'm discrediting the 787; its the most exciting plane to me right now bar far.) Hind sight is always 20/20, but that doesn't mean you can't learn from it

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2007-04-20 21:24:46 and read 9200 times.

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 17):
I mean, if Mr. Leahy had not been overly confident in the A330, then Airbus (possibly, i.e. the A380 fiasco) could have launched the A350 close to when Boeing launched the 7E7.

True. But it is somewhat unrelated to the current situation. Today's XWB is a far superior plane to the original A350 if we are to believe what we hear - and I tend to think it's pretty close to reality. Airbus also took it up the size scale a pinch, putting it more head-to-head with the 777. This should ensure some good orders over time, even without a 787 competitor.

With the amount of time that these aircraft will be on the market (and in service), calling the game over in 2007 for the XWB - even in a figurative sense - seems somewhat shortsighted. Airbus has (belatedly) come up with a great widebody twin to counter the 787/777, and regardless of what BA, LH, AA, UA, DL, etc do THIS YEAR, I would certainly be extremely shocked to see it fail as a program based on its merits alone.

-Dave

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Gunsontheroof
Posted 2007-04-20 22:15:01 and read 8554 times.

Sounds like a real possibility. If Boeing indeed reaches this mark, it'd be quite an impressive milestone...heck, they're just not delivering the l/n 7-- triple sevens!

On a somewhat related note, I just stepped out onto my side porch and caught the 747-400LCF turning towards BFI on the OLM5 arrival after a flight down the Oregon coast...I've had the thing fly right over me before while landing, but you really don't get a sense of how big that thing really is until you see it at 12000 feet and say to yourself "whoa! what the hell is that?" before figuring it out. Wow.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: SirOmega
Posted 2007-04-20 22:26:20 and read 8399 times.

Doesnt surprise me much. If you figure the US carriers order at Paris, plus the -10 launch with a 50+ unit order. Thats probably 125-150 right there. So you're up close to 700 right tiere.

It may hold the record for most firm orders by rollout/first flight, but I bet it will be overtaken by the 737RS when that launches.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AirFrnt
Posted 2007-04-20 22:39:10 and read 8261 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 14):

While I respect your postings generally, this one strikes me as a reach too far. The A350XWB is already moving forward, and if the rumored EK order is true (which is very plausible) along with commitments from QR et al, then I simply do not see them "pulling the plug" on what will likely be an incredible aircraft.

Fair enough. I should have stipulated that I think that the A350's profitability will be severely impacted by a locking up of the American market to the 787. Or if Boeing committed to the Y3. Anyway you look at it, Airbus has to start taking big orders away from Boeing, and they need to start with EK and the American carriers.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: DeltaDC9
Posted 2007-04-20 22:45:16 and read 8196 times.

This makes me wonder if they can sell 787 planes by EIS. That would be kind cool after rollout on 7/8/7.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AndesSMF
Posted 2007-04-20 23:08:02 and read 7931 times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

I think the opposite is the case. If US carriers start ordering the 787 en masse, Airbus will be left with a still sizable market that will be looking for a new plane.

And IMHO, the efficiencies inherent in the 787 will cause an extensive cycle of airplane replacement, much like the jet age.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2007-04-21 00:48:28 and read 7142 times.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 23):
And IMHO, the efficiencies inherent in the 787 will cause an extensive cycle of airplane replacement, much like the jet age.

I think you are correct. Not only do I believe the B-787 can get 700 orders before the roll out of ship #1, but it is possible the B-787 could have 1000 orders before the EIS.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AndesSMF
Posted 2007-04-21 00:55:41 and read 7097 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):

But I am not only referring to the 787, but the entire range of commercial airplanes.

Let me repeat the history of how the economics of the jet airline forced airlines to make a quick change to jet travel:

1. Jet engines used more fuel, but it was cheaper than avgas. However, turbines required much less maintenance than piston engines. Jet airplanes could fly for much longer w/o required engine maintenance.
2. Because jet airplanes could go much faster, an airline required LESS airplanes (and associated people) to maintain the SAME schedule.

IMHO, there may be similar (not on speed, but maintenance and other) efficiencies inherent in the manner that the 787 is being designed and built, that we (  crossfingers  } may see airlines demanding an entire range of airliners built along the same concepts as the 787.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Kbdude
Posted 2007-04-21 01:14:36 and read 6951 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):
I think you are correct. Not only do I believe the B-787 can get 700 orders before the roll out of ship #1, but it is possible the B-787 could have 1000 orders before the EIS.

Absolutely stunning....... Wow! since the it took the 767 design decades to break the 1000 firm order plateau...

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Glideslope
Posted 2007-04-21 01:21:51 and read 6899 times.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 3):
700 by roll out is entirely possible:

700 after Paris.  Cool

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Blackbird1331
Posted 2007-04-21 01:24:54 and read 6871 times.

How many of the A350 orders are firm? It seems Boeing, once it finalizes a design, seems to do a much better job than Airbus getting its product to market I am wondering if some of the A350 orders will be cancelled in favor of the B787 once it goes into service and meets or even exceeds all expectations.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: AndesSMF
Posted 2007-04-21 01:37:27 and read 6795 times.

Quoting Blackbird1331 (Reply 28):
I am wondering if some of the A350 orders will be cancelled in favor of the B787 once it goes into service and meets or even exceeds all expectations.

Somewhat doubtful, as the A350 straddles the line between the 787 and 777. Those airlines that need the A350 are in a somewhat different market than what the 787 offers. This goes back to the 767/A330. While they can be called competitors, they both fulfill basically different requirements for an airline and cannot be quite compared one to one.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Hamster
Posted 2007-04-21 05:06:03 and read 5783 times.

Where are we with the production of this plane? Weren't we supposed to have one flying in the spring? Well it is almost May. Anyone have an update? Any pics?

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: HughesAirwest
Posted 2007-04-21 05:18:44 and read 5700 times.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):
I can't wait to fly on the 787, I'm so sick of AA's cramped 777's and 767's.

How are AA's 787s (if they order) going to provide more space? Each airline decides how many seats are placed in the a/c and the pitch. So just because the 787 is new that does not mean it will have more room. AA's 777's are not as cramped as EK's....

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: FlyDreamliner
Posted 2007-04-21 05:36:41 and read 5602 times.

I don't know if we will see this huge AA order as soon as we think. AA has announced its intention to fit all of its 767s with winglets. That would make me believe they plan to fly the 767s for some time yet. We might see a 30-40 plane order out of AA to replace the A300 fleet - whose days are certainly numbered, but I don't think we'll see an order for circa 100 jets all at once - or very soon from AA.

BA and LH are both due for some fairly substantial orders yet. BA I expect to buy 787 for a number of reasons, but keep in mind their 767 fleet isn't huge and they seem content with their 772s.... so I'm not sure how big an order we'd see there. As for LH, I'm thinking Airbus has better odds here than any of the other big orders up for grabs. The biggest 787 orders I think we'll see yet to come will be from Delta, who is sure to put in for some jets, maybe lots of jets, as soon as they can get them. I also wouldn't rule out AC, QF, or NW exercising some options.

700 could happen, but I am not counting on it. I'd say odds are slightly less than even that we'll see 700.

As much as I love the 787 (and I do sincerely believe it is a great step forward), I think it is important A350 get some orders soon. Even if A350 is not 100% of the 787's performance in every area, it has its advantages, and I have to believe that would mean something. A350 has to be fitting some airlines better than 787.... and so while I realize A350 is some years yet away, I'd hope that it takes at least one of the major airline orders this year... and perhaps not EK.... I'm fairly convinced EK will either not order, or not take delivery of an entire 100 plane mid-size long-haul order.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Manni
Posted 2007-04-21 07:40:34 and read 5088 times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
If all of the US carriers and BA came over, enough of the market would be locked up (in terms of follow up orders) that it would not be worth it to launch the A350.

Ignoring that the A350XWB is already launched and that Airbus has possibly a few hundred commitments lined up (pending confirmation of QR and EK) that's a big IF. US Airways will make their intentions know by the end of the month. That's how long your 'IF' might last. Additionally, the odd 300 to 400 orders UA, DL and AA might place (IF none of them chooses to replace some of their aircraft with the A350XWB) over the next decade will represent about 10% of the market forecast for widebody aircraft in that category. Add another 15% Boeing already has captured and you'll see why Airbus will not hesitate to go after a share of the remaining 75%.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):
Not only do I believe the B-787 can get 700 orders before the roll out of ship #1, but it is possible the B-787 could have 1000 orders before the EIS.

1000? Why being so modest? That's only 3 aircraft every second weekday for the next 12 months.

Quoting Kbdude (Reply 26):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):
I think you are correct. Not only do I believe the B-787 can get 700 orders before the roll out of ship #1, but it is possible the B-787 could have 1000 orders before the EIS.

Absolutely stunning....... Wow! since the it took the 767 design decades to break the 1000 firm order plateau...

Fascinating!

[Edited 2007-04-21 07:44:41]

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Tancrede
Posted 2007-04-21 09:40:27 and read 4731 times.

I am just waiting when the first 787 customers will leave the boat due to launch delay, performances not met or political reasons and else …
Then, it will be time of laugh  biggrin  and numbers will not look as sexy then.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-04-21 10:39:49 and read 4566 times.

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 34):
I am just waiting when the first 787 customers will leave the boat due to launch delay, performances not met or political reasons and else �
Then, it will be time of laugh  biggrin  and numbers will not look as sexy then.

wishing a plane will do bad..that's just great....your comments are as brilliant as the people who claimed the A380 won't fly... sarcastic 

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: BoogyJay
Posted 2007-04-21 11:01:23 and read 4490 times.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):
I can't wait to fly on the 787, I'm so sick of AA's cramped 777's and 767's.

I bet you'll get a 10-abreast Y/C on AA's B787, so you'll actually more cramped on the B787 than on their B777 (at least as far as seat width is concerned).

Quoting N844AA (Reply 10):
Is this the one that was reportedly discounted by more than 50%?

These reports don't hold water, there is no serious source, or when there are, they are as vague as "industry sources" so take that with bags of grain of salt. Those "industry sources" are as credible to me as most of A.net users.

With those discount subjects, you can't trust anyone; there is so much game going on... You can't differentiate the truth from the fake. I'm not saying these rumours are not true, but no one can say they are either. Rumours are easy to begin.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
wishing a plane will do bad..that's just great....

I fully concur, no need to knock down the B787, as well as any other plane...

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Glom
Posted 2007-04-21 11:29:15 and read 4399 times.

It's probable Boeing will get a few more orders, but there are only a few QR and EK out there. Airbus have a habit doing well with them.

Airbus gets units. Boeing gets customers. I would think it would be a better target to say Boeing will get its 50th customers, more than 700 orders.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Gunsontheroof
Posted 2007-04-21 11:32:08 and read 4387 times.

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 34):
I am just waiting when the first 787 customers will leave the boat due to launch delay, performances not met or political reasons and else �
Then, it will be time of laugh biggrin and numbers will not look as sexy then.

Months away from go time and Boeing is still on track. Please explain your reasoning for believing this.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Tancrede
Posted 2007-04-21 13:11:48 and read 4095 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
wishing a plane will do bad..that's just great....your comments are as brilliant as the people who claimed the A380 won't fly...

Sorry, but just reading many mails from others, wishing that the A350 should not even exist. What do you think I and others feel from that?

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Glideslope
Posted 2007-04-21 14:25:35 and read 3835 times.

Quoting Manni (Reply 33):

Ignoring that the A350XWB is already launched and that Airbus has possibly a few hundred commitments lined up (pending confirmation of QR and EK) that's a big IF. US Airways will make their intentions know by the end of the month. That's how long your 'IF' might last. Additionally, the odd 300 to 400 orders UA, DL and AA might place (IF none of them chooses to replace some of their aircraft with the A350XWB) over the next decade will represent about 10% of the market forecast for widebody aircraft in that category. Add another 15% Boeing already has captured and you'll see why Airbus will not hesitate to go after a share of the remaining 75%.

It's still a paper airplane with no design freeze in sight. IMO, A is not capable of getting the 359 EIS prior to 2015. Besides who wants an aircraft with only 1 engine choice?  Smile

You really think they won't hesitate? Show me a hesitation free program by A in the last 3 years? GET RID OF THE 2 CEO MODLE!!

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: OldAeroGuy
Posted 2007-04-21 15:06:11 and read 3664 times.

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 40):
Besides who wants an aircraft with only 1 engine choice?

The 727, 737(all models) and 773ER have done rather well.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2007-04-21 16:58:26 and read 3188 times.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 22):
This makes me wonder if they can sell 787 planes by EIS.



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):
it is possible the B-787 could have 1000 orders before the EIS.

1000 orders by EIS is not only possible, it's plausible. However, it doesn't seem at all probable. 800-900 seems probable.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 29):
the A350 straddles the line between the 787 and 777.

Indeed, and that's a fine line. In typical configuration, the 787, A350, and 777 are all 9 abreast airliners. The differences in size are often overstated here on A.net. The biggest practical difference is that, because the 787 and A350 have dramatically better structural efficiency than the 777, they can be produced in shorter length versions. The upper limit is about the same.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-04-21 17:47:19 and read 2970 times.

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 39):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
wishing a plane will do bad..that's just great....your comments are as brilliant as the people who claimed the A380 won't fly...

Sorry, but just reading many mails from others, wishing that the A350 should not even exist. What do you think I and others feel from that?

..I can understand your frustrations but wishing ill on something else doesn't really solve anything...it only makes you look bad...if the A350 is as good as Airbus claims it is, then it will sell very well on its own merit.....no need to "bash" the competition.... no 

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Ken777
Posted 2007-04-21 18:27:30 and read 2777 times.

The 350 will sell, and will sell better than some believe. The dad fact (for Boeing lovers) is that Boeing can't deliver to 100% of the market. If they sell 1,000 by EIS what would be the delivery dates for the later orders?

Even if Airbus only picked up 30% of the projected 5,000 market that would be 1,500 frames and Airbus will have made a profit - even a very nice profit if they get their management straightened out.

Airbus does have some challenges in the short to medium time frame and they have the best salesman around to win their fair share. While AA and DL might be solid on the 787 I wouldn't be surprised if Airbus picked up US and/or UA, giving them a foot hold in the US market.

On the 350 side I believe Airbus will be OK. The challenges will increase when Boeing announces Y1 and Y3 and, if Airbus hasn't been continually investing in a Y1 challenger over the past few years, Y1 would be very painful for Airbus.

Topic: RE: ~700 Orders By 787 Rollout In July '07 - ATW
Username: Kaitak
Posted 2007-04-21 20:01:14 and read 2656 times.

On another thread, AF is talking about a potential 50-70 frames to be announced at Le Bourget, so that's another one to add to the "possibles" list; it comes straight from J-C Spinetta, so it one can take it as plausible.

The news about EK and US, both of which seem to be going for A350s, but with incredible discounts, is interesting. I'm wondering what effect this will have on other potential customers. EI is expected to announce an order for up to fourteen 787s (although more likely a smaller number, with the balance made up by a lessor), but no doubt it is one of the carriers Airbus is targeting; I'm sure VS is in the same situation.

That said, I strongly agree with the possibility that 700 is a realistic target, because once one US legacy carrier goes down the 787 road, it'll be a domino theory; AA/DL/UA will probably order 30-50 acft each as a first order, with an eventual requirement for up to 100 each. Then there's BA, LH, IB, VS, EI, KU and many other smaller carriers, due to place orders in the near future.


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