From today's WSJ:

Quote: Customers have been clamoring for more information. Since presenting an overview of the jetliner in July, Airbus has shown customers a variety of plans, but it has yet to commit to a firm configuration, customers say. According to people familiar with the campaign, US Airways has been in talks with both Airbus and Boeing but is leaning toward sticking with Airbus. Airbus has offered favorable terms on pricing as well as agreeing to renegotiate terms on A320s the airline ordered, these people say. Airline officials remain concerned about whether Airbus will deliver the A350 by 2013 as promised. US Airways has asked Airbus officials to come back with a proposal that would include financial penalties if it fails to deliver. John Leahy, Airbus's chief operating officer for customers, said in an interview that "US Airways would of course have penalty payments" if the plane is late or fails to perform as advertised.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1178...20100095343.html?mod=moj_companies

The article goes on to say that Airbus aims to freeze the plane's overall shape and size in October 2008 before beginning detailed design drawings.

ILFC needs to see the final definition before determining whether it appeals to the largest number of airlines.

Some customers have been pushing Airbus to offer 10-abreast seating in economy but Airbus is sticking with nine.

Other customers have said they are staying on the sidelines while Airbus tries to reach a deal with GE for engines for the new A350.

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter): The article goes on to say that Airbus aims to freeze the plane's overall shape and size in October 2008 before beginning detailed design drawings.

did you say December 2008? That's a year and a half from now.

I would hope they meant October 2007, otherwise I see very strong 777 and 787 sales this year and next...

What's interesting is that in the picture, which claims to be sourced from Airbus, they show the A350 as an 8-abreast. Guessing they incorrectly used an old graphic.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2): I would hope they meant October 2007, otherwise I see very strong 777 and 787 sales this year and next...

The M8 "final design freeze" milestone has been October 2008 since the -XWB was first shown, back in July last year, IIRC............
That's still 5 years from EIS BTW  

Seriously, though, the things that matter get frozen progressively between now and then.
M8 requires all of the major supplier contracts to be in place, and the systems defined IIRC.

Things like "specification" freeze happen back-end of this year IIRC.

Regards

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 1): did you say December 2008? That's a year and a half from now.

Quote: Airbus aims to freeze the plane's overall shape and size in October 2008 before beginning detailed design drawings, Mr. McConnell said. Airbus is working to "take risk out of the program," he said.

The WSJ is subscription only, there's a summary of the article here:

http://www.euro2day.gr/articlesfna/34287280/

I had been wondering about the "US Airways April 30th" big order,which was going 350, then 787, then silent. The fact that we never heard a murmur (or at least I didn't) pretty much told me that an A350/US order might very well be announced at the airshow next month. In any event, it certainly had not been a done deal.

-Dave

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 6): In any event, it certainly had not been a done deal.

Nothing's a done deal yet, either way as "leaning toward sticking with Airbus" is quite ambiguous.

I don't see how any buyer can be ordering the A350 now since Airbus has yet to commit to a firm configuration. Is Airbus giving information to QR that they are not giving to ILFC?

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 7): I don't see how any buyer can be ordering the A350 now since Airbus has yet to commit to a firm configuration.

Boeing didn't finalise the 787's configuration until September 2005. However, that didn't stop ANA ordering it nearly 18 months before that. How is that different?

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8): How is that different?

It depends on whether or not ANA was influencing the specs or simply taking what Boeing was giving. I suspect the former for the 787. The question is which scenario fits the 350 buyers.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 4): The M8 "final design freeze" milestone has been October 2008 since the -XWB was first shown, back in July last year, IIRC...the things that matter get frozen progressively between now and then. M8 requires all of the major supplier contracts to be in place, and the systems defined IIRC.

Got it. So no big deal, then, and it gives Airbus time to keep tweaking.

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter): Airbus has offered favorable terms on pricing as well as agreeing to renegotiate terms on A320s the airline ordered

Anything can happen between now and 2014 [whenever.] In the meantime, renegotiating terms on existing 320 orders sounds fantastic. Pretty much unbeatable in fact in any business. Half the U.S. carriers might not even be around in 7 more years, who knows? I imagine more than a few other airlines would be interested in this action.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8): Boeing didn't finalise the 787's configuration until September 2005. However, that didn't stop ANA ordering it nearly 18 months before that. How is that different?

If I recall correctly, that was the stage at which the plane's final design was frozen. I'm no engineer, but in plain English that reads significantly differently from "freez[ing] the plane's overall shape and size ... before beginning detailed design drawings."

Quoting N844AA (Reply 12): "freez[ing] the plane's overall shape and size ... before beginning detailed design drawings."

As per Astuteman's reply:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 4): Seriously, though, the things that matter get frozen progressively between now and then. M8 requires all of the major supplier contracts to be in place, and the systems defined IIRC.

What I'm saying is, I don't see how airlines considering and committing to the A350 now, know much less than ANA did when it placed its order for 787s.

Quoting N844AA (Reply 12): If I recall correctly, that was the stage at which the plane's final design was frozen. I'm no engineer, but in plain English that reads significantly differently from "freez[ing] the plane's overall shape and size ... before beginning detailed design drawings."

As per my previous response, I understand the plane's overall shape and size (and specs) will be frozen this September/October (IIRC - corrections welcomed   ), leaving another year to progress to "final" design freeze, by which time EVERYTHING is frozen.

Regards

Given the competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis the 787, the long run up to a design for the A350 seems like a nightmare for their sales force. It may be according to plan, but the plan is not working in Airbus' favor.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8): Boeing didn't finalise the 787's configuration until September 2005

Amazing! So Boeing was able to do in 2.5 years (finalize design to EIS) what will take Airbus 5 years with the A350XWB, yet you find reason to brag.

Bravo!

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 16): Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8): Boeing didn't finalise the 787's configuration until September 2005 Amazing! So Boeing was able to do in 2.5 years (finalize design to EIS) what will take Airbus 5 years with the A350XWB, yet you find reason to brag.

I was under the impression that the A350XWB final design freeze is in 2008, wouldnt that make its design process 2 to 2.5 years? I do consider it to be a different aircraft to the old A350 (assuming thats where you arrive at a figure of 5 years), as the technical aspects of the two aircraft have little in commmon. Essentially, airbus started from scratch with the XWB, but is keeping the A380 cockpit instruments.

[Edited 2007-05-09 15:41:22]

2.5 years from design freeze to EIS for the 787, using published timelines (Sept2005 to Spring2008)

5 years from design freeze to EIS for the A350XWB, using published timelimes (Fall2008 to Fall2013)

You really have to wonder if Airbus would be revenue positive on such a deal to USAirways, and it's probably impossible for them to tell right now with so much yet to be determined about the A350. As much as I'd like to see a 787 in US colors, that could be a pretty tough deal for them to resist as they get NBs that give them fleet commonality sooner than they could get them from Boeing, plus givebacks on planes they've already ordered. If the A350 project really goes south by say, 2011 and US sees it coming maybe they could get an escape clause on the A350, order the 787 and still have their widebody by 2013.

It seems like a scenario like that would be tough for US to pass up. I don't know if it makes a lot of sense for Airbus to do business this way, but they're kind of desperate right now. It's also highly unlikely they'll be allowed to fail and they know it.

Cheers,
Dave in Orlando

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 16): yet you find reason to brag.

Say what?!?!   Please show me where I'm "bragging".

BoomBoom asked how an airline can buy A350s now, and I pointed out that ANA bought their 787s 18 months before Boeing completed their design freeze, which is around where Airbus is now.

There's no bragging, no Airbus cheerleading and no Boeing bashing. Please explain yourself, because I can't see your point.   

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14): As per my previous response, I understand the plane's overall shape and size (and specs) will be frozen this September/October (IIRC - corrections welcomed ), leaving another year to progress to "final" design freeze, by which time EVERYTHING is frozen.

So what you're saying is that the envelope will be set in concrete this year and all else is TBD until 2008? That seems reasonable enough. "Design freeze" is sort of an abstract concept anyway. Large aircraft are very much an individually built and equipped thing.

I remember two MD11s that were ordered by JAT and when they were about 50 per cent complete Yugoslavia imploded into civil war. They were taken over by American Airlines who got a hell of a deal on them, and they had to be modified quite a bit for customer configuration.

Come to think of it JAT partially paid for some of their MD80s with canned hams and there was a small office that was tasked with selling or giving away the hams any way they could. I ate a couple of them myself.

However there is a long time between final design freeze and entry into service.

the $64,000 question is can Airbus afford to spot the competition that kind of temporal advantage, given that the competition shows no signs of doing a Rip Van Winkle in the product development department.

The other $64,000 question is what is going to replace the B737 and A320, and who is going to build it?

I thought that Airbus had decided on the 350XWB design that we've all been talking about since July. This seemed like monster of a plane(s). What is the problem with freezing this design?? And get rolling with it now? If only foresight was always 20/20, perhaps Airbus could have done away with the VLA market for now, and pursued the 350XWB or some plane along those lines earlier. Well since they aren't freezing any designs as of right now, perhaps they can, design a 350 model to compete with the 787-8 too. This would effectively kill the A330, but Boeing will be cannibalizing their own 772ER with the 787-10, and the 777 is a n even newer design than the 330/340. Then Airbus would really have a line that covered the 787 up to the 77W.

Steve - my comment was poorly worded, my apologies! I was referring to the endless debates of which frame is better than the other, not as an attack on you  

If it is taking Airbus 5 years to do what Boeing is doing in 2,5, I hope it is better!

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 23): Steve - my comment was poorly worded, my apologies!

Royal, no problem, apology accepted.

Now, get back to screening or taking shots of those new Boeings!   

Quoting Logos (Reply 19): You really have to wonder if Airbus would be revenue positive on such a deal to USAirways, and it's probably impossible for them to tell right now with so much yet to be determined about the A350.

I imagine Airbus has a decent idea of what an A35XWB is going to cost them - at least enough to set list prices high enough that even with standard and launch discounts, they're going to make money on each frame.

Also, with US it is more then just the A350XWB. They're also selling US A330s and A320s in the interim and if they land the A350XWB program, that bodes at least somewhat well that the A320RS will be US' narrowbody of choice in the future. Also, if the A320E program is launched, US could shift unfulfilled A320 orders to it at a bit of a premium. Taken all together, plus spares and maintenance and training and all other ancillaries, the odds that Airbus will come out of this deal with a profit is a pretty good one.

And all those ancillaries would help Boeing make money on an extraordinarily-discounted 787 order, plus what they could make if US choosing the 787 also gets them to take the 737NG.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20): BoomBoom asked how an airline can buy A350s now, and I pointed out that ANA bought their 787s 18 months before Boeing completed their design freeze, which is around where Airbus is now.

I asked about Airbus committing to a "firm configuration" not a "design freeze".

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 7): I don't see how any buyer can be ordering the A350 now since Airbus has yet to commit to a firm configuration.

The article states that customers are clamoring for more information, but Airbus has yet to commit to a firm configuration.

I believe there is like 10 milestones in the Airbus program. The M8 design freeze is where the interface and performance of all parts are defined, so the detailed production design can be performed, the M8 is Fall 2008. Far sooner is the earlier milestones. To obtain them the suppliers for each major component needs to be identified, where the parts will be made, how they will be transported, and the specifications for each pretty well known. Also, all of the wind tunnel studies need to be complete. Its hard to design a plane if you don't know the specific engines being used, etc.

I sense that there is some confusion at Airbus in determining the specific configuration. I just hope that all of the design is being done on the same version of Catia.

However, I cannot believe the grief that has been thrown Airbus's way in regards to the nose, the front landing gear, cockpit windows, and the crew rest location. Those choices and interations are occurring at the correct location in the cycle and is part of design evolution. I hope Airbus is more open in the design of this version of the 350 than previously. Stuffing it down their throat will only make them more reluctant to release information that is not finalized.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 23): If it is taking Airbus 5 years to do what Boeing is doing in 2,5, I hope it is better!

FWIW, Clickhappy, I suspect the advantage for Boeing lies in how much further down the industrialisation path they were on the 787 at design freeze, building upon years of work leading up to it, than Airbus are now.

I think getting the resources and facilities to be used negotiated to a satisfactory conclusion, and getting them online will be the real critical path for Airbus.

Boeing were SO smart with the 787....  

Regards

"the advantage for Boeing lies in how much further down the industrialisation path they were on the 787 at design freeze,"

Good Point. It seems at design freeze, Boeing had worked out all of their suppliers, their mode of transporting the different pieces (a la Dreamlifter). This is also how "Boeing were SO smart with the 787....    "

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 29): mode of transporting the different pieces (a la Dreamlifter

On a side note, the A350 trnsport methode will likely be identical to those of the A300/310 & A330/340 as the A350 fuselage diameter (5.91m) will easily fit inside the A300-600ST fuselage (7.7m).