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Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: AA787823
Posted 2007-06-09 03:10:52 and read 13850 times.

Speaking to a cheif pilot today. He does not believe AA will order the 787 till 2009 at the earliest. Most likely not untill 2010 or so. AA has negotiaitions starting with all three AA union in 2008, AA will have its hands full. Assuming that agreements are reached in 2008 with the unions then AA will know what it is spending in the future on labor.
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: Floris
Posted 2007-06-09 03:26:14 and read 13761 times.

It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: AA787823
Posted 2007-06-09 03:37:05 and read 13722 times.

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

Given AA's current financial situation and the fact they are going into union negotiations, its more likely than not that AA will not order the 787 any time soon. UA DL have not ordered either....

Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-09 03:43:08 and read 13679 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Speaking to a cheif pilot today. He does not believe AA will order the 787 till 2009 at the earliest. Most likely not untill 2010 or so. AA has negotiaitions starting with all three AA union in 2008, AA will have its hands full. Assuming that agreements are reached in 2008 with the unions then AA will know what it is spending in the future on labor.
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things.... Smile

....just taking the piss (aside from the over-priced union workers)

Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-06-09 04:47:54 and read 13460 times.

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

And how wrong the people who "talk to chief pilots" end up being.

AA can't afford to wait 3 years to order the 787. Well, I guess they could order 20 77L to tide them over, but I doubt it.

Topic: AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion
Username: AA787823
Posted 2007-06-09 05:01:38 and read 13402 times.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
AA can't afford to wait 3 years to order the 787.

AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Mirrodie
Posted 2007-06-09 05:04:55 and read 13378 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.

Unless you have facts to back up your statements, I suggest that you state that you are speculating.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-06-09 05:05:59 and read 13378 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes.

As other CEOs have said, banks are lining up to finance 787s. It won't be a problem.

But it's great they are refurbing the 757, at least the newer ones. They are in need, but are great planes. The 763, well people are not so pleased with the premium product they are putting in, after not being pleased with the previous 2-2-2 premium product either.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Bringiton
Posted 2007-06-09 06:27:03 and read 13179 times.

Ordering in 2009 could possibly mean deliveries post 2015-2016 , that is pushing a bit IMHO . I think AA would want deliveries by 2012-2013 to begin with and in all ernest by 2013-2014 so for that they have to order now , maybe before year end .

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2007-06-09 06:46:46 and read 13110 times.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 8):
I think AA would want deliveries by 2012-2013 to begin with and in all ernest by 2013-2014 so for that they have to order now , maybe before year end .

Couldn't AA secure slots ahead of time?

Hunter

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: DfwRevolution
Posted 2007-06-09 06:48:47 and read 13102 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes.

It's called financing, and any number of creditors would line up in a heart beat to provide it for AMR Corp.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Bringiton
Posted 2007-06-09 07:04:36 and read 13044 times.

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 9):
Couldn't AA secure slots ahead of time?

They definately could , and it is a safe bet that they allready have some pretty sweet slots reserved for them however the Demand for the 787 is bound to put pressure somewhere and something would have to give . DL is expected to order the 787 aswell and with 2007 looking like the 787's best sales year , and 2008 would be EIS so logically there should be a surge in orders . Taking into account all of this AA might want to push things a little bit faster to get the best possible delivery slots for themselves ahead of there competition . I think it was carson who was quotes as saying that the pressure of demand is being felt by the airlines and they are being forced to prepone some of there descisions because the Hot sales means that the slots are evaporating very fast .

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: McMax
Posted 2007-06-09 10:30:16 and read 12736 times.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 11):
they are being forced to prepone some of there descisions because the Hot sales means that the slots are evaporating very fast

I love that word, "prepone." I had never heard it used before, and I must add it to my vocabulary. I tip my hat to you.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: LarSPL
Posted 2007-06-09 11:05:13 and read 12596 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 2):
Given AA's current financial situation and the fact they are going into union negotiations, its more likely than not that AA will not order the 787 any time soon. UA DL have not ordered either....

there is no way that an airline does not have something like a financial outlook for the coming years.

aircraft planning is a longterm plan, its not like you wait as long as you can until your current aircraft are outdated and thén start finding funds for new ones.. you plan new aircraft investments years in advance. it doesnt matter if they buy 787 or a350 they still need new airplanes and therefore they will indeed reserve funds for new planes.

on the note of union negotiations: every union will atleast go for inflation correction, so the big sum is also roughly known before they go in to negotiations. let me point out that the influence of labor costs has largely been overtaken by fuel costs.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Swissy
Posted 2007-06-09 14:47:35 and read 11750 times.

Quoting LarSPL (Reply 13):
aircraft planning is a longterm plan, its not like you wait as long as you can until your current aircraft are outdated and thén start finding funds for new ones.. you plan new aircraft investments years in advance. it doesnt matter if they buy 787 or a350 they still need new airplanes and therefore they will indeed reserve funds for new planes.

That would be the "normal way" however 9/11 changed that....... to many airlines were running on "the edge" prior 9/11 and 9/11 uncovered that clearly.

It is better to clean your house (airline) before any new crazy orders are made

Quoting LarSPL (Reply 13):
on the note of union negotiations: every union will atleast go for inflation correction, so the big sum is also roughly known before they go in to negotiations. let me point out that the influence of labor costs has largely been overtaken by fuel costs.

 checkmark 

And lets not forget these 57/67 are still a very efficient AC and when the 787 will start to replace these 67, there will be some sweet metal available at a very good price/lease.......

AMR has a bigger problem with their "domestic" fleet...........

Oh sure the banks are lining up, but that does not mean you have to jump on it and increase your liabilities...  Wink

Cheers

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: TinPusher007
Posted 2007-06-09 15:31:59 and read 11505 times.

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

In the title of the thread it clearly states that it is someone's opinion, not fact!

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: NYC777
Posted 2007-06-09 15:49:34 and read 11421 times.

I say BS to this. I have heard that AA CEO Gerald Arpey will be in Paris next week to sign the order for the 787 and other aircraft pruchases.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Bringiton
Posted 2007-06-09 16:22:45 and read 11221 times.

Quoting McMax (Reply 12):
I love that word, "prepone." I had never heard it used before, and I must add it to my vocabulary. I tip my hat to you.

Well if you ever had a chance at school to interact with a lot of foreign grads then you would come to use it in a snap  Wink

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: AAL0616
Posted 2007-06-09 19:20:42 and read 10295 times.

The company will acquire and deploy 787 equipment. The only question is when. The labor negotiations do factor into the decision, as well as Boeing delivery schedules and competitive rationale. Fort Worth has a plan in place. The speculation about when, which variants, or how many hulls will be announced and which engines will be hung on the wings is interesting. The reality is that the announcement could occur at any time. Stand by. AAL will fly the 787. DFW-SYD here we come.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-09 19:59:15 and read 10073 times.

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 18):
. Stand by. AAL will fly the 787. DFW-SYD here we come.

...it will be QF flying that route first (SYD-DFW-SYD) before AA even think about flying that route... Wink

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Galapagapop
Posted 2007-06-09 20:13:13 and read 9996 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.

Obviously you have not read any of AA financial statements. They have debt like every major carrier, but their credit rating is one of the highest. AA also has billions in unrestricted cash, the time to act is sooner rather than later. Not to mention are more stable than other majors as like CO they entirely avoided BK. International is the money area for majors right now and AA needs A/C more than ever anyway (777 fleet is stretched thin), not to mention the aging 767 and A300 fleets. AA will also look to keeping it's short haul fleet as young as possible to stave of high maintenance, although all 400 or so narrowbodies won't be replaced in one go, especially until Y1, small orders are expected to get the oldest A/C on the way out and pave way for small growth.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2007-06-09 20:31:53 and read 9859 times.

AA needs to get an A300 replacement. I have heard that after the leases for the A300s expire, they will not be renewed. This is likely why AA doesn't plan on updating the interior on them. AA needs an aircraft that can carry as much or more cargo than the A300 for Caribbean routes, and the current 767 fleet is not suitable for that.

AA was rumored to be ordering 100 787s at the Paris Air Show, I woudn't be suprised if the rumors are true.

Also expect Delta to order the 787 this year; Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein said that he expects a 787 order before the end of the year.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Thebry
Posted 2007-06-09 20:36:42 and read 9826 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

...only because they were saddled with the poor performing MD-11 at the time. They bet on the wrong plane. This time, things could be different.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: EXAAUADL
Posted 2007-06-09 20:55:12 and read 9721 times.

In the year 2015, visiting an US airport will be like visiting an African or Latin American airport today (ie you see lots of 727s 737s Dc-9s). The rest of the world will be flying around in A350s, 787s and US flags will still have 763s. They will be at a tremendous cost disadvantage

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2007-06-09 21:24:05 and read 9546 times.

AA AND OLD: Guangzhou - Baiyun (CAN / ZGGG) (closed), China">CAN'T wait to order 787 till 2009. It needs to start getting planes now. If you wait till 2009 your competition may have 5 years or more of kicking your profitability straight in the sack with planes that are far cheaper to run. Its very hard to fight off someone who puts their shiny new 787 on your route that has a A300,767 or early A330 since their trip costs are going to be far lower, and can carry more people. So... They charge less and take more people than ever before.

Whats great about the lease/finance world is that they will loan money to anyone at anytime if the product they are loaning it on keeps its value. Given that for the near future a 787 frame used is going to be worth more than a new one, Its hardly a stretch to loan people money for one. If they default, you (the bank) take your plane (collateral) and sell it for more than you paid for it to begin with, or lease it out whichever takes your fancy at the time.

Leasing companies would also love to have airlines like AA get them slots. Boeing is stingy about giving leasing companies slots, but if AA comes to the table and asks for part of their order to be leased from ILFC or GECAS then guess what, ILFC or GECAS gets the planes if everyone can agree on the terms. Leasing companies REALLY want 787 slots right now. They are drooling at the thought of a plane that is much cheaper to maintain and with a much much longer lifespan. So you write your leases up for terms that don't look any different than if it was for a 767 or A330, then pocket the savings on lower cost to refurbish after each lease, AND get to lease that same frame for an extra decade or so thus making for a decade of free money. Customers who are large, and with a good relationship you can at your desire share these benefits making everyone happy.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: PGNCS
Posted 2007-06-09 21:51:28 and read 9366 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things....

What about the extraordinarily overcompensated managers who have seen their compensation increase dramatically while AMR's unions have given essentially all that has been asked of them?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
AA can't afford to wait 3 years to order the 787.

Why?

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 18):
The company will acquire and deploy 787 equipment. The only question is when.

Your entire synopsis is the best reasoned on this entire very speculative thread.

Quoting Thebry (Reply 22):
...only because they were saddled with the poor performing MD-11 at the time. They bet on the wrong plane.

Having MD-11's on the property didn't prevent them from ordering another type.

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 23):
In the year 2015, visiting an US airport will be like visiting an African or Latin American airport today (ie you see lots of 727s 737s Dc-9s). The rest of the world will be flying around in A350s, 787s and US flags will still have 763s. They will be at a tremendous cost disadvantage

This is the most baseless statement I have ever read on this site. I'm no great champion of the 767 despite several thousand hours in the airplane, but most airlines ARE looking at fleet renewal as it makes economic sense to do so. CO and NW have already ordered the 787, US is close to a major order, and it is believed that DL is as well (a conjecture that I am fairly certain of.) You may want to see one for one replacement orders for 787's tomorrow, but that's not the way it works in most cases (and rarely has). Given the relative economy of the 767 fleet, their age and projected lifespans, not to mention their replacement costs, it is prudent an logical to be disciplined about renewal.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: AA717driver
Posted 2007-06-10 02:40:38 and read 8116 times.

Having a shiny new fleet matters only to we airliner geeks at A.net. Put new interiors in every so often and no one is the wiser. NWA kept their old fleet and updated the interiors. UAL bought a bunch of new airplanes. Both ended up in ch. 11.

I expect to retire on the S80.  Wink TC

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Catdaddy63
Posted 2007-06-10 03:01:05 and read 8012 times.

As has been stated before, AA has large quantities of aircraft that will be reaching retirement in the next 10 years or so. They need to get the orders placed soon to secure slots, or most likely firm up slots that Boeing is holding for them as a preferred customer. They need to do this sooner rather than later. The AB6's are the top priority as well as the 762ER's. They are doing decent financially and obviously expect to continue making money. They will get enough 788's (I'm thinking they will not get the 783) to cover the AB6 replacement at a minimum.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2007-06-10 05:20:22 and read 7765 times.

Quoting Catdaddy63 (Reply 27):
As has been stated before, AA has large quantities of aircraft that will be reaching retirement in the next 10 years or so.

Even worse, we are not talking about a decision to hold over the MD-80 fleet for a couple years more. Thats been done for quite a few "couple years". So you have a fleet thats missed more than a few years of its replacement cycle and is getting on to the point where its time to replace them, or do without them. Coupled with the fact that the next generation of mid size planes are not just a bit better, but YOU WILL NOT SURVIVE WITHOUT THEM better. Missing out on getting 787 or A350 frames ASAP is going to be rather like missing out on the transition to the jet age. In virtually every respect, the 787 is the 707 of its time. If it meets the letter of the contracts, it will be cheaper, faster, more reliable, haul more people, with more comfort than what it replaces in a complete step change from what has come before.

So AA has it from both ends, It has planes it CAN'T keep around much longer, and It can't wait any longer before the competition has the edge it needs to run AA over like a rabbit on the interstate.

BTW, whats the A300 and 767 fleet look like in terms of age and cycles?

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-10 05:52:32 and read 7730 times.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 25):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things....

What about the extraordinarily overcompensated managers who have seen their compensation increase dramatically while AMR's unions have given essentially all that has been asked of them?

.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-06-10 05:58:21 and read 7718 times.

Quoting TinPusher007 (Reply 15):
In the title of the thread it clearly states that it is someone's opinion, not fact!

The title was altered after complaints. NOW it says it's an opinion.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Galapagapop
Posted 2007-06-10 07:27:45 and read 7624 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

Speaking of, I about a missed that boat, I remember the stock sitting at $10 for so long, I knew it's be worth more eventually but I never pulled the trigger and after me messing up on DH I wanted to avoid airline stocks, but god oh mighty do I wish I had a time machine!

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-10 10:38:39 and read 7556 times.

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 31):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

Speaking of, I about a missed that boat, I remember the stock sitting at $10 for so long, I knew it's be worth more eventually but I never pulled the trigger and after me messing up on DH I wanted to avoid airline stocks, but god oh mighty do I wish I had a time machine!

You're telling me, I was watching the stock go down the day before they were going to hit bankruptcy, I never thought they would have been able to get out of that predicament........it was <$4  hissyfit 

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Swissy
Posted 2007-06-10 15:51:18 and read 7398 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

While I agree it is very typical (to typical for my taste) there should be no difference between the bleeding/risk for Management & unions................  Wink

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 28):
Coupled with the fact that the next generation of mid size planes are not just a bit better, but YOU WILL NOT SURVIVE WITHOUT THEM better. Missing out on getting 787 or A350 frames ASAP

I am sure AMR did their home work in regard of fleet planing, I understand A & B will try to convince all airlines the only way of "surviving" is fly the 787 & 350 asap......

Quoting AA717driver (Reply 26):
Having a shiny new fleet matters only to we airliner geeks at A.net. Put new interiors in every so often and no one is the wiser. NWA kept their old fleet and updated the interiors. UAL bought a bunch of new airplanes. Both ended up in ch. 11.

I expect to retire on the S80. TC

Agree 100%, but ULA increased their liabilities by a big margin, and as we can see from the past "avalible cash" means nothing if your over all debt is to great.....

Cheers,

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: PGNCS
Posted 2007-06-11 03:36:57 and read 7096 times.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 28):
Even worse, we are not talking about a decision to hold over the MD-80 fleet for a couple years more. Thats been done for quite a few "couple years". So you have a fleet thats missed more than a few years of its replacement cycle and is getting on to the point where its time to replace them, or do without them.



Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 28):
So AA has it from both ends, It has planes it CAN'T keep around much longer

Please explain how you came to this conclusion. What aircraft at AA is facing imminent grounding and for what reason?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 25):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things....

What about the extraordinarily overcompensated managers who have seen their compensation increase dramatically while AMR's unions have given essentially all that has been asked of them?

.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

And bonuses. So you are arguing basically that AMRs executives have done such a great job that their compensation (in any form) should increase during the biggest round of givebacks in the company's history? I don't care what pot the money comes out of, what form it's in, or how it's accounted for: at the end of the day AMR managers have done exceptionally well because of stock price performance in large part due to severe labor sacrifice. I don't work for AMR, and I'm glad.


Quoting Swissy (Reply 33):
While I agree it is very typical (to typical for my taste) there should be no difference between the bleeding/risk for Management & unions................

Thanks, Swissy, I'm glad to see that someone else grasps the basic concept of fairness.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 33):
I am sure AMR did their home work in regard of fleet planing, I understand A & B will try to convince all airlines the only way of "surviving" is fly the 787 & 350 asap......

Again, you are right. Airbus and Boeing want to sell airplanes; airlines want to make money. The people who actually care what kind of plane they fly on are on this board, and pretty much nowhere else. AMR has more knowledge of their own needs and requirements than armchair fleet planners on this board.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-11 04:16:54 and read 7028 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 33):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

While I agree it is very typical (to typical for my taste) there should be no difference between the bleeding/risk for Management & unions................  Wink

...but that's how corporate world works, its no different in many any industries.... Wink

.....I'm not so big on unions as others are..so I won't say anything about them.... Wink

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 34):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 25):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things....

What about the extraordinarily overcompensated managers who have seen their compensation increase dramatically while AMR's unions have given essentially all that has been asked of them?

.....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the tubes so would have the compensation....

And bonuses. So you are arguing basically that AMRs executives have done such a great job that their compensation (in any form) should increase during the biggest round of givebacks in the company's history? I don't care what pot the money comes out of, what form it's in, or how it's accounted for: at the end of the day AMR managers have done exceptionally well because of stock price performance in large part due to severe labor sacrifice. I don't work for AMR, and I'm glad.

....if AMR stock went down the tubes then they would basically no compensation..and yes, management should get more than the "rank-n-file"...

...whether you choose or not to choose to work for AMR is your choice..but if you work for a publicly traded company, chances are the situation is not going to be too much different than above.. no ....

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 34):
Quoting Swissy (Reply 33):
While I agree it is very typical (to typical for my taste) there should be no difference between the bleeding/risk for Management & unions................

Thanks, Swissy, I'm glad to see that someone else grasps the basic concept of fairness.

...what's not fair about it? no one is stopping anyone from going into management, etc.....for example, Arpey didn't make it sitting on his thumb twiddling his fingers..he put decades of hard work, commitment and education..... yes 

..

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: BigJKU
Posted 2007-06-11 04:41:38 and read 6983 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
AA has negotiaitions starting with all three AA union in 2008, AA will have its hands full. Assuming that agreements are reached in 2008 with the unions then AA will know what it is spending in the future on labor. Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

I would imagine AA has decided a couple of things. First they know that fleet planning is a long term thing and they can secure financing for such activities. Second they probably know what they expect to pay the pilots and other union workers. Hopefully they take a hard-line with the Unions and come up with a sustainable plan for the company as a whole rather than the usual tactic of giving the farm away just to avoid problems.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Ckfred
Posted 2007-06-11 07:40:01 and read 6853 times.

One of the reasons, among many, that TWA got into trouble is that it was too slow to order new planes in the 80s. Gas guzzling aircraft with high maintenance needs drove up TWA's costs. AA is too smart to get into that situation.

It is an interesting situation with the pilots' union in negotiation and other unions starting negotiations in the not-too-distant future. In the 90s, AA made a point of tell the pilots' union that it would not place orders for new planes until it had a ratified contract. In other words, if the pilots wanted increased hiring, they had to agree to a contract.

I don't think AA has the luxury of getting its contracts negotiated before placing order. Too many other airlines will be placing orders and taking delivery slots.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: N1120A
Posted 2007-06-11 09:37:04 and read 6767 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

Yeah, because they made a huge mistake

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):

AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes.

Aside from the fact that AA has banks lined up to finance aircraft for them, they also have massive cash stores and are profitable, which means they indeed do have plenty of money to finance new aircraft.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 21):
AA needs an aircraft that can carry as much or more cargo than the A300 for Caribbean routes, and the current 767 fleet is not suitable for that.

The 767 fleet would do fine, particularly considering the cargo carried is normally of the bulk/baggage variety, but it would be at the expense intercontinental routes, which is not going to happen.

Quoting Thebry (Reply 22):
...only because they were saddled with the poor performing MD-11 at the time. They bet on the wrong plane.

Exactly. They needed to get something out of their heavy investment in the aircraft.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 25):

Having MD-11's on the property didn't prevent them from ordering another type.

...After they found out that the MD-11 didn't have the range it promised and that the 772ER was a superior aircraft in every way.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: JayinKitsap
Posted 2007-06-11 09:47:56 and read 6751 times.

AA has a large fleet that has already had replacements deferred on. In the NB's they are faced with either buying the tail of the 737 run or waiting on the 737RS. I think they will do the bare minimum here for now to be a big buyer of the 737RS when it is announced. Assuming a 30 year replacement cycle, AA will need to have delivered 10 to 15 planes per year starting now! I think it will come in small orders like CO's were, a block of 10 or 20 now, more later. Do they want to be flying the AB6 until 2020. To replace those alone would take an order for 30 with all delivered by 2017.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Swissy
Posted 2007-06-11 16:12:12 and read 6539 times.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 34):
And bonuses. So you are arguing basically that AMRs executives have done such a great job that their compensation (in any form) should increase during the biggest round of givebacks in the company's history? I don't care what pot the money comes out of, what form it's in, or how it's accounted for: at the end of the day AMR managers have done exceptionally well because of stock price performance in large part due to severe labor sacrifice. I don't work for AMR, and I'm glad.



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
but that's how corporate world works, its no different in many any industries....

Agree 100% and I do not support it at all and I do hope with a newer generation coming in things will change for the better and labour relations will improve, saving a company is about saving work...... job cuts happens every were and no one is save from it. Believe me if management was not sure that the "stock option" did not pay out they would not have agreed to it  Wink

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
.....I'm not so big on unions as others are..so I won't say anything about them....

Same here, I had very few meetings with unions were I could say "we are on the same page and lets get business done"

Quoting N1120A (Reply 38):
Aside from the fact that AA has banks lined up to finance aircraft for them,

No argue about that, but why go deeper in the hole and increase your liabilities????

Quoting N1120A (Reply 38):
they also have massive cash stores and are profitable, which means they indeed do have plenty of money to finance new aircraft.

It sounds to good to be true and I would agree 1000% with it if AMR did not have such a big dept load and that is why I do not see any major order (short term)

Cheers,

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: BigJKU
Posted 2007-06-11 16:23:52 and read 6512 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 40):
No argue about that, but why go deeper in the hole and increase your liabilities????

Because you are better off having more debt and good cashflow than you are having less debt a negative cash flow due to having fuel hungry aircraft that are no longer competitive.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: AA787823
Posted 2007-06-11 17:13:53 and read 6446 times.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 38):
Aside from the fact that AA has banks lined up to finance aircraft for them, they also have massive cash stores and are profitable, which means they indeed do have plenty of money to finance new aircraft.

AA still is close to $20billion in debt. Almost double the other majors. AA is not about to add to that. Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORROWED money, sure I can go down to the bank, take a $50,000.00 cash advance off my credit card, and say I have 50 grand in the bank, but I dont.
AAs recent profitability is a mere 1% pre tax margin. Hardly enough to fund a whole new fleet. Gerard Arpey has said many times, "We will not order any new airplanes until we can be consistantly profitable at a 7-10% pre tax margin with the fleet we have got."

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: BigJKU
Posted 2007-06-11 17:25:11 and read 6416 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AA still is close to $20billion in debt. Almost double the other majors. AA is not about to add to that. Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORROWED money, sure I can go down to the bank, take a $50,000.00 cash advance off my credit card, and say I have 50 grand in the bank, but I dont.

I agree that their situation is not perfect. What they really need to do is knock down their labor cost further during this round of negotiations by taking a very hard line with the Pilots.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AAs recent profitability is a mere 1% pre tax margin. Hardly enough to fund a whole new fleet. Gerard Arpey has said many times, "We will not order any new airplanes until we can be consistantly profitable at a 7-10% pre tax margin with the fleet we have got."

Then the negotiations don't matter. If AA does not start updating some parts of their fleet they are going to get progressivly worse in operating cost which will bleed them dry in the highly competitive domestic market and they will not be able to expand internationally so they will eventually just die.

If the pilots union has half a lick of sense they will see that it is in their interest to keep their burden on American at a reasonable level to allow them to undertake fleet expansion and replacement.

Regardless I think American will buy planes anyway. They may be 20 Billion in debt but it is better to be 25 Billion in debt with a fleet that can produce positive cash flow and be competitive in terms of operating cost and service than it is to be 20 Billion in debt and not able to generate any cash flow because your planes need too much gas.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-11 17:48:37 and read 6385 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AA still is close to $20billion in debt.

...IIRC, its down to $16 billion now..also, AA's bond ratings have improved = better perceived fundamentals, and better loan rates......

FWIW...for all the whoopla about other legacies such as DL having less loans, etc., DL owns basically nothing anymore (IIRC)..most of it was all mortgaged away prior to bankruptcy.....AA owns a decent amount of their fleet.....

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Galapagapop
Posted 2007-06-11 18:07:01 and read 6334 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AA still is close to $20billion in debt. Almost double the other majors. AA is not about to add to that. Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORROWED money, sure I can go down to the bank, take a $50,000.00 cash advance off my credit card, and say I have 50 grand in the bank, but I dont.
AAs recent profitability is a mere 1% pre tax margin. Hardly enough to fund a whole new fleet. Gerard Arpey has said many times, "We will not order any new airplanes until we can be consistantly profitable at a 7-10% pre tax margin with the fleet we have got."

Like every other major carrier in the US. They unlike others have not gone into BK and still own much of their fleet. Banks want to loan AA money, of all the majors AA is probably in the best position for the future in terms of profit and stability.

AA needs to spend money to make money in this instance, the 762's are aging, the 752's are aging and so are the 763's. AA's longhaul fleet is stretched thin as it is, and with future retirements, rising fuel costs, and aging, it just makes total sense to get new A/C.

Just wait until the 737RS, then we'll talk about order size...

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Swissy
Posted 2007-06-11 20:51:22 and read 6213 times.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 41):
Because you are better off having more debt and good cashflow than you are having less debt a negative cash flow due to having fuel hungry aircraft that are no longer competitive.

AAs fleet might be not the "most" efficient fleet on the planet, however they produce positive cash flow, remember fuel burn is just one of the factors.............saleries is an other one...... no one argues AA has to up date their fleet... eventually not short term as far as I can see they are on the right track, reduce debt, keep cash flow high as possibly, stream line operations, improve labour relations or simple "clean house with what you got"  Wink

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORROWED money, sure I can go down to the bank, take a $50,000.00 cash advance off my credit card, and say I have 50 grand in the bank, but I dont.

 checkmark 

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 45):
Just wait until the 737RS, then we'll talk about order size...

 checkmark 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
...IIRC, its down to $16 billion now..also, AA's bond ratings have improved = better perceived fundamentals, and better loan rates......

Exactly and why is that??? because they went and ordered a crazy numbers of ACs & increased liabilities???? or perhaps improved their bottom line???? and reduced debt??? making profit again????  Wink

Cheers,

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Cslusarc
Posted 2007-06-11 23:35:07 and read 6084 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AAs recent profitability is a mere 1% pre tax margin. Hardly enough to fund a whole new fleet. Gerard Arpey has said many times, "We will not order any new airplanes until we can be consistantly profitable at a 7-10% pre tax margin with the fleet we have got."

Can you read in between the lines? AA now typically says that it has the highest labour CASM in the North American industry. From listening to the financial analyst conference calls/webcasts, I've learned that AA is hesitant to order any additional new aircraft until it can be assured by is labour groups that they'll contribute to improving their labour productivity or take additional wage and benefit concessions. If AA labour groups don't co-operate all we'll see in the next 7 years are those 47 73Ws enter AA's fleet as AA continues to reduce their capacity systemwide. I really think it is possible that by 2014 AA will be 10% smaller than it is today if its labour groups don't play ball.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: LMP737
Posted 2007-06-12 01:10:53 and read 6016 times.

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 42):
AA still is close to $20billion in debt. Almost double the other majors. AA is not about to add to that. Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORROWED money, sure I can go down to the bank, take a $50,000.00 cash advance off my credit card, and say I have 50 grand in the bank, but I dont.

In the first quarter of 2007 AA had a total debt of $17.5 billion and a net debt of $12.2 billion. Compared to a year earlier, $19.7 billion and $15.4 billion the year before, that's a pretty good improvement.

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-06-12 02:25:40 and read 5926 times.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 46):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
...IIRC, its down to $16 billion now..also, AA's bond ratings have improved = better perceived fundamentals, and better loan rates......

Exactly and why is that??? because they went and ordered a crazy numbers of ACs & increased liabilities???? or perhaps improved their bottom line???? and reduced debt??? making profit again???? Wink

many people fault AA "for this and for that, and they need to get their game together"..but at the end of the day, they don't need to go into BK, cut employment wages by 40%, eliminate retirement plans,etc.........this is why AA need to order planes.... Wink

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 45):
AA needs to spend money to make money in this instance

 checkmark 

Topic: RE: AA 787 Order In 2009, A Pilot's Opinion
Username: Swissy
Posted 2007-06-12 15:10:30 and read 5769 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 50):
many people fault AA "for this and for that, and they need to get their game together"..but at the end of the day, they don't need to go into BK, cut employment wages by 40%, eliminate retirement plans,etc.........this is why AA need to order planes....

Frist Jacobin, I appreciate "our" well based conversation about AA spending "bling bling"..... different views but never less interesting..  Smile

Short term, no need for new ACs

Long term, 4 years and up yes they will need new metal

Cheers and have a great day


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