Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3625507/

Topic: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: T773ER
Posted 2007-09-24 17:00:25 and read 31249 times.

"British Airways could announce a possible purchase of B-787s and B-747s within two weeks. This was stated last Friday on behalf of Boeing manager Jim Haas during his visit to the Alenia Aeronautica plant in Grottaglie, southern Italy."

"Haas also declared that for the B-787 the bookings list is closed until 2013, thus a carrier that wanted to place an order could do so only as of 2014."

Rest of article here: http://www.avionews.com/index.php?co...1079648&pagina_chiamante=index.php

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: B7X7
Posted 2007-09-24 17:09:11 and read 31151 times.

He says "Possible purchase" which says to me that Boeing does not know where it is going either (or will not publicly state).

Possible could mean it could go to Airbus

I think it could go Boeing, but it is really to close to call.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BY738
Posted 2007-09-24 17:19:44 and read 31036 times.

Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
British Airways could announce

...and "could announce " Airbus. I certainly wouldnt read too much into that.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-24 17:36:51 and read 30852 times.

I think Boeing and Airbus sales teams have a good idea on what has been decided.

On the other hand once I was in a purchasing team and we apparently played out the two remaining contenders so well both were in shock to be selected / disqualified. I still remember the winners salesman frozen face when we said he had the deal (if they gave us a discount of x%). Same thing on the other side, only really believed they were ditched (after many yrs) when I told them later face to face.

If BA negotiators play it well, nobody is 100% sure at this moment & still feeling forced to do last minute incentives..

[Edited 2007-09-24 17:57:34]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: NYC777
Posted 2007-09-24 17:41:06 and read 30796 times.

Quoting B7X7 (Reply 1):
Possible could mean it could go to Airbus

I think it could go Boeing, but it is really to close to call.



Quoting BY738 (Reply 2):
...and "could announce " Airbus. I certainly wouldnt read too much into that.

However the rumor mills have been consistently saying that BA is going with the 748I and the 787. I think that a Boeing exec wouldn't have said the things he said in Italy if there wasn't a deal done already with BA. I think it looks extremely good for the 748I and the 787 to be bought by BA given this information.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-24 18:06:51 and read 30546 times.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 4):
However the rumor mills have been consistently saying that BA is going with the 748I

Trace them back. Thin indications by questionable sources IMO.

However I think many are convinced the 787 is a better 767 replacement then the A350..



for this round 787+A380 as my best guess, XWB & 747-8: maybe later..

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: NA
Posted 2007-09-24 18:20:49 and read 30404 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 5):
However I think many are convinced the 787 is a better 767 replacement then the A350..

The 787 is a better 767 replacement than the larger A350, and a fine 777 replacement, too. BA can´t get 787s before 2013 (unless some slots are freed by airlines changing their mind). 2013-15 is a perfect time to replace the aging 777s (BA has some of the oldest 777s around), but a bit late to replace the then really old 767s.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 4):
However the rumor mills have been consistently saying that BA is going with the 748I and the 787.

Hmm, there were many words recently BA would get A380s. Personally I hope BA goes the Lufthansa way and orders A380s AND 748Is.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scorpio
Posted 2007-09-24 18:20:49 and read 30404 times.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 4):
the rumor mills have been consistently saying that BA is going with the 748I and the 787

No they haven't. I've only seen one person repeatedly say that here, and that was you.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Bmacleod
Posted 2007-09-24 18:21:23 and read 30404 times.

I'm hoping BA will order the 748I as the program needs a major order announcement it any other airlines are going to consider it. Most airlines flying the 747 are leaning towards the A380 or the 773ER. The 787 will look good in BA colors too.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columbia107
Posted 2007-09-24 18:24:48 and read 30342 times.

Is the market getting a whiff of success for Boeing?

Its share price has risen by some US$6 during the last week.

Admittedly, it might be the effects of the 50 basis points drop in the US Dollar lending rate.

Oh by the way, if BA finally opts for the 787, do the chances of a future XWB purchase diminish?

I say this as they can go for the 787-10 which translates into commonality of equipment.

Tops this with a weaker dollar and .......................

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Tavong
Posted 2007-09-24 18:30:14 and read 30263 times.

No matter what, BA is in a exremely good negotiation place that no matter if they go A or B ( i hope they go B) they´ll get a sweet, very sweet deal.

That´s the only thing i can say at this point. If they go A or B, there are too many threads about it and the conclusion is the same. Nobody knows.  biggrin 

Gus
SKBO

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-24 19:08:13 and read 29858 times.

Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
This was stated last Friday on behalf of Boeing manager Jim Haas



Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
"British Airways could announce a possible purchase of B-787s and B-747s within two weeks



Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
"Haas also declared that for the B-787 the bookings list is closed until 2013

Unfortunately, each time more so, publications as Avionews and Flight global seem to convert themselves in propagators of unsupported rumors.
What means "on behalf of...." ?!. This seems that Avionews heard it through another or even a chain of other person who did so, so they do not know what he really said. This refers both to the BA purchase and the bookings available, which obviously depend how much production will increase from 2010 on, an issue Boeing repeatedly declared to be studying!

By the way: even if Airbus complies with an EIS date 2013, given their order book, any new customer for the A350 would have to wait until
2016-7, at least.

See also Reuters article "PREVIEW-BA order seen pivotal for superjumbo and newest 747"
http://int1.fp.sandpiper.net/reuters...0070910/TodayTop10BestSelling2.gif

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-24 19:16:19 and read 29657 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 5):
Trace them back. Thin indications by questionable sources IMO.

Miracles of miracles, I agree with Keesje.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 5):
for this round 787+A380 as my best guess, XWB & 747-8: maybe later..

And again! I feel so dirty, I need a shower...  Wink

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: NYC777
Posted 2007-09-24 19:21:27 and read 29556 times.

Quoting Columbia107 (Reply 9):
Admittedly, it might be the effects of the 50 basis points drop in the US Dollar lending rate.

I think you're spot on!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Carls
Posted 2007-09-24 19:51:26 and read 28909 times.

A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according to him BA will go with
15 A380
26 787-800
30 A350-1000
15 A350-900

It looks very conservative, but sound like a good combination. Only time will tell us.

[Edited 2007-09-24 19:53:01]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-24 19:54:49 and read 28814 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
If BA negotiators play it well, nobody is 100% sure at this moment & still feeling forced to do last minute incentives..

If this decision really is going down to the last minute, I would take note of the falling dollar and rising Euro.
BA's finances are tight, and the weak dollar is an advantage to Boeing. dollarsign  down  fever 

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Insiderinfo
Posted 2007-09-24 20:01:33 and read 28679 times.

Quoting Columbia107 (Reply 9):
Oh by the way, if BA finally opts for the 787, do the chances of a future XWB purchase diminish?

Yes...i'd say so..

did BA ever go for the 777 and A340...nope

did BA ever go for the 767 and the A330....nope..

did they ever go for the 757/737 and A321 at the same time....nope...rather planned to replace the families with A321 for next gen replacement...

It's 777/787....OR.not and a350.....

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: RedFlyer
Posted 2007-09-24 20:03:06 and read 28636 times.

Quoting Carls (Reply 14):
A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according to him BA will go with
15 A380
26 787-800
30 A350-1000
15 A350-900

The fact that there are no 748i's in that list tells me the source is dubious. I think BA will, like LH, go for the A380 AND the 748. They have shed loads of 744's, and while some will be replaced with A380's and others with A350-1000's, there are going to be plenty that will need to be replaced/augmented with 748's.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-24 20:09:24 and read 28501 times.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 17):
The fact that there are no 748i's in that list tells me the source is dubious. I think BA will, like LH, go for the A380 AND the 748.

They have repeatedly said they would not do so with this order. This does not preclude a future order.

Quoting Carls (Reply 14):
A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according

As for that order, I do not see the rush for BA to place such a large A350-1000, considering the plane won't be available for 8-9 years. If anything you would see an order for A350-900 with OPTIONS for more A350s. Nor do I see them ordering more A350-1000 than A350-900 at this point. Thus if your friend is likely reporting a rumor he heard from the inside, not any actual decision.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: DL767captain
Posted 2007-09-24 20:11:41 and read 28447 times.

i can see a 748 and 787 order. BA is getting more into p2p travel under the open skies act and the 787 is perfect for that. I could also see a medium sized 777(maybe -300) as a filler until 787 can arrive

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BY738
Posted 2007-09-24 20:16:41 and read 28288 times.

I cant beleive yet another post on this is creating so much interest.....just wait and see. Noone knows....in here anyway.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BWIA 772
Posted 2007-09-24 20:21:24 and read 28196 times.

That doesnt mean we cannot speculate Big grin

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: HB88
Posted 2007-09-24 20:25:57 and read 28102 times.

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 8):
I'm hoping BA will order the 748I as the program needs a major order announcement it any other airlines are going to consider it. Most airlines flying the 747 are leaning towards the A380 or the 773ER. The 787 will look good in BA colors too.

Let's hope that the carriers don't then get a whiff of Mcnerneys comment saying that the 748i is a "747 re-do"!  Wink

(see http://leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn091807.pdf)

Personally, I'd prefer to see BA order the A380 given how it offers a few more possibilities in the way of pax comfort even in cattle-class.

I also wonder where the abandon point is for Boeing on the 748i project is if they don't get more carriers on board. Does anyone have a credible figure for break-even on the project?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2007-09-24 20:27:09 and read 28071 times.

Quoting Carls (Reply 14):
A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according to him BA will go with
15 A380
26 787-800
30 A350-1000
15 A350-900

I have a friend who knows nothing about airlines or airplanes. He thinks BA will order:
A-330
A-340
A-350
A-380
B-737
B-747
B-777
B-787

LOL

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-24 20:50:23 and read 27560 times.

Even if BA has signed a purchase agreement with Boeing, no Boeing executive is going to leak it prior to BA announcing.

One, it's not Boeing's style. And two, after the QR 777 bru-ha-ha, even if it wasn't their style, they would make it so after that.  Smile

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-24 20:57:50 and read 27438 times.

I would think that with $1.41 = 1 Euro, that a 748i that uses old American parts might be looking pretty sweet right now. Just my opinion.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BY738
Posted 2007-09-24 20:59:13 and read 27411 times.

Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 21):
That doesnt mean we cannot speculate

No but 120 posts on the previous thread was more than enough....

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2007-09-24 21:09:41 and read 27194 times.

Airbus and Boeing are both sharpening their pencils. BA have already decided on their preference and how much their second choice will have to beat their first choice on price (adjusted by a myriad of terms and conditions, each of which has an assigned dollar value) in order to win.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Express1
Posted 2007-09-24 21:20:33 and read 26952 times.

Speculation is no prove , the regional announcement will be, so lets wait for that announcement then we will all know what BA will order.

dave

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-24 21:28:24 and read 26794 times.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 26):
I would think that with $1.41 = 1 Euro, that a 748i that uses old American parts might be looking pretty sweet right now. Just my opinion.

Heck, with the British Pound worth $2 US, I expect the 747-8I and the 787 are looking mighty sweet right now.  Smile

Mind you, Airbus prices in USD, as well, so BA is going to get a nice deal, period, but it I expect more of stuff in the 747-8I is priced in dollars then the A380-800 which will help Boeing on pricing.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2007-09-24 21:35:20 and read 26677 times.

I think the BA order will at least comprise of circa 15 A380-800's and 20-25 747-8I's. Interestingly, I think BA will NOT assign the A388 to the LHR-JFK route, since that route requires more in the way of frequent flights; it will be a route used heavily by the 747-8I.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-09-24 21:39:23 and read 26587 times.

Theres no reason for BA NOT to get the A380. If they can fill their 747s now, then in the future, they'll be able to fill the A380s, with the predicted increase in pax across the Atlantic etc.
Also , BA is a prestige airline and I think their customers want and expect the A380 luxury on the prominent routes.

A350 is a better choice for BA than 787. Even if the A350-800 is slightly bigger than the 787-8, BA can put in more F and J class seats and easily fill them and make more money per segment. The important thing for BA is to make a really big A350 order now, all models, so they can get in on the earliest deliveries the can at this point.
Both A380's and A350's can use RR engines for increased fleet compatibility, and its a good PR move for them to buy British products.
How can Airbus lose this order?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BoeingFever777
Posted 2007-09-24 21:40:21 and read 26545 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):
15 A380-800's

Way to many...

748i and 787 is a definite along with 6-10 A380's.


We will know around Oct. 3rd.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-24 21:42:17 and read 26499 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):
Interestingly, I think BA will NOT assign the A388 to the LHR-JFK route, since that route requires more in the way of frequent flights; it will be a route used heavily by the 747-8I.

I agree. They could be using more 744s now instead of some 772s if they really wanted to consolidate. You might, might see on A380 a day, but why go through the trouble of having one frequency on that route and all the various equipment they would need on the ground at JFK to handle it.

The USA market is so spread out, and open skies will open it further (with BA having more LHR capable routes). The USA will likely continue to be a 747/777/767 market, with A380s heading to Asia...

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Blsbls99
Posted 2007-09-24 21:44:55 and read 26446 times.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 32):
Also , BA is a prestige airline and I think their customers want and expect the A380 luxury on the prominent routes.

BA is not a prestige airline...they are a profit driven airline. If they were a prestige airline, we would still see Concorde in the skies. The luxury component of air travel does not depend on what airframe one flies.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Flysherwood
Posted 2007-09-24 21:46:02 and read 26410 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
Mind you, Airbus prices in USD, as well, so BA is going to get a nice deal, period, but it I expect more of stuff in the 747-8I is priced in dollars then the A380-800 which will help Boeing on pricing

The old saying goes "... in for a penny, in for a pound...". Airbus has so much invested in the A380 that I doubt that they will let an order be lost due to price with BA. This is just too prestigious and too big of a customer to let get away on pricing alone. Besides, as you said, Airbus prices their product in US dollars just like Boeing. I believe that they will order at least 10 - 15 A380's and 20 - 30 747-8I's along with the 787. They will order the A350 or 787-11 later when they need to worry about replacing the 777's.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):
Interestingly, I think BA will NOT assign the A388 to the LHR-JFK route, since that route requires more in the way of frequent flights; it will be a route used heavily by the 747-8I.

 checkmark 

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2007-09-24 22:00:26 and read 26144 times.

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 33):
Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):
15 A380-800's

Way to many...
6-10 A380's.

I'll have a little bet with you that BA order more than 10 A388s.  Wink

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 33):
Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):

748i and 787 is a definite

Ooh hold on there cowboy - are you sure about that?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-24 22:12:26 and read 25939 times.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 36):
Airbus has so much invested in the A380 that I doubt that they will let an order be lost due to price with BA. This is just too prestigious and too big of a customer to let get away on pricing alone.

The situation for Boeing is much the same. Airbus has no advantage in desire for this order. More important, if comments from the Airbus board are to be believed, they would not approve of selling A380's below cost...regardless of "prestige". There is always a limit to how far a vendor can bend on pricing.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 36):
Besides, as you said, Airbus prices their product in US dollars just like Boeing

But Airbus has to consider most of their costs are in Euros. When it comes to the pencil-sharpening phase, Boeing has more leeway to discount as they do not face exchange-rate risks as Airbus does.

Boeing can offer the B748i at cost if they wish, knowing the dollar amount to a good degree of certainty. Airbus cannot be so certain what the dollar-equivalent cost of an A380 will be in the future, so they must take a risk in discounting their product.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caribbean484
Posted 2007-09-24 22:17:57 and read 25845 times.

Well as some say we have to wait till Oct 3.

And like my friend BWIA772 we can speculate till then lol.

But I stand by my 748i and 787 prediction.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Iwok
Posted 2007-09-24 22:19:22 and read 25812 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
If BA negotiators play it well, nobody is 100% sure at this moment & still feeling forced to do last minute incentives..

Very well said, and knowing the English expertise at negotiations, I'd say this is still wide open from the manufacturer's perspective. An internal decision must have been made by now I suspect.

Quoting Carls (Reply 14):
A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according to him BA will go with
15 A380
26 787-800
30 A350-1000
15 A350-900

It looks very conservative, but sound like a good combination. Only time will tell u

Hardly a "conservative order."  Wink

My bet is that they will order 748/787 combo, or possibly order some 380/787/350 combo with maybe some 748i and 787 for interrim lift.  rotfl 

I'd say the only thing we know is that the 340 and 767 will NOT be ordered.  Smile

iwok

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Glideslope
Posted 2007-09-24 22:21:59 and read 25776 times.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 17):
Quoting Carls (Reply 14):
A friend of mine who work internally in BA told me that they already made a decision, and according to him BA will go with
15 A380
26 787-800
30 A350-1000
15 A350-900

The fact that there are no 748i's in that list tells me the source is dubious. I think BA will, like LH, go for the A380 AND the 748. They have shed loads of 744's, and while some will be replaced with A380's and others with A350-1000's, there are going to be plenty that will need to be replaced/augmented with 748's.

Agree completely. I see a very nice 748i order coming. I'm not sure about the 787. Could be a split with the 350. I say no 380 at this time.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Flysherwood
Posted 2007-09-24 22:22:53 and read 25724 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
Boeing can offer the B748i at cost if they wish, knowing the dollar amount to a good degree of certainty. Airbus cannot be so certain what the dollar-equivalent cost of an A380 will be in the future, so they must take a risk in discounting their product.

Fair enough, you make a good point.  Smile

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2007-09-24 22:24:13 and read 25687 times.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 32):
BA is a prestige airline and I think their customers want and expect the A380 luxury on the prominent routes.

So what are you saying? That the amenities provided on an A380 can not be provided on a B748? Luxury found on a plane, depends on how much money an airline is prepared to spend in anticipation for ROI. For example: You can pack passengers in on the A380 in an 850 seat Y-class configuration, which is not luxurious at all, even on a prominent route like LHR-JFK-LHR…. Forget about the “prestigious” A380, I will take a flight on an “ancient” 3-class 767ER across the pond.

Please remember that BA’s 744’s are flown to a lot of international airports which are not necessarily capable of handling A380’s. Many of these airports, IMO, will not be willing to commence with huge capital expenditures, just in case they get a few weekly or even a daily A380 service. Why did LH order the 748 after all – just to bridge the gap between the A346 and the A380? Personally, I don’t think so. However, I may be wrong. Just my  twocents 


Rgds

SA7700

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-24 22:39:37 and read 25417 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
The situation for Boeing is much the same. Airbus has no advantage in desire for this order. More important, if comments from the Airbus board are to be believed, they would not approve of selling A380's below cost...regardless of "prestige". There is always a limit to how far a vendor can bend on pricing.

 checkmark 

Every company including Airbus has a bottom line that they will not go under. I work for a semiconductor company and we tell customers to go take a hike or buy the competition everyday, even if it means we lose profit. We do this to prevent price erosion. We also do it because it looks really bad for us when one of our customers finds out their competitors are getting product from us cheaper than they can. We also do it because we need a return on investment. Even if our parts only cost us $1 to make, we may charge $10 to recover $50 million we spent on R&D, so we do have a bottom line. I know semiconductors and airplanes are different, but I believe the basic principal remains the same, at some point you need to make a profit and sometimes it's worse to make a small profit than no profit.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Phishphan70
Posted 2007-09-24 22:49:20 and read 25239 times.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 17):
I think BA will, like LH, go for the A380 AND the 748. They have shed loads of 744's, and while some will be replaced with A380's and others with A350-1000's, there are going to be plenty that will need to be replaced/augmented with 748's.



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 19):
i can see a 748 and 787 order. BA is getting more into p2p travel under the open skies act and the 787 is perfect for that. I could also see a medium sized 777(maybe -300) as a filler until 787 can arrive

ever since LH ordered both the 380 and 748, i have had a feeling we'd see BA do something similar. LHR is a HUGE spot for international traffic, and BA has a great international network out of LHR, and other airports as well. I believe some routes flown by the 744 right now are perfect to be replaced by the 380 (ex LHR-JNB) and some routes will be perfect for the 748 (LHR-SFO). As for the aging 777's and 767's, i could see BA negotiating with Boeing on some lower-cost (still not cheep though!) new 777's to replace some old 777's and using the old 777's on existing 767 routes until the A350 or 787 are avalible

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: ERAUgrad02
Posted 2007-09-24 23:11:03 and read 24914 times.

Can someone dress up a 747-8i in BA scheme like someone did with the A380?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: BWIA 772
Posted 2007-09-24 23:27:25 and read 24686 times.

Quoting BY738 (Reply 27):

I guess so.. but for me this it is one of the cool things about airliners.net

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SkyTaxi
Posted 2007-09-24 23:31:33 and read 24619 times.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 36):
Besides, as you said, Airbus prices their product in US dollars just like Boeing.

...but Airbus builds their planes using the Euro.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: PlymSpotter
Posted 2007-09-24 23:46:15 and read 24398 times.

Quoting BY738 (Reply 20):
I cant beleive yet another post on this is creating so much interest.....just wait and see. Noone knows....in here anyway.

I'm fairly sure there are those who know for sure on here, but are not going to say a word for their job's sake. As it is, all we get is an A vs B war brought on by so called 'reliable sources' cited and formulated to predict one of the other.

Best just to wait and see, whoever gets it, BA will have some nice shiny planes to play with.


Dan Smile

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 00:08:21 and read 24124 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
There is always a limit to how far a vendor can bend on pricing.

Not so, at least not from the companies perspective. If (hypothetically?) Airbus thinks that not getting an order from BA would kill the A380 programme, so creating a damage far beyond of the originated by selling to BA a few frames far below cost price, or, Boeing thinks that not getting such order would mean the end of the A748i, they would accept virtually any price as long as not absurd, hoping to be able to recuperate such loss later.

The real limit would be eventually imposed by the WTO anti-dumping rules.
.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-25 00:30:02 and read 23864 times.

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 46):
Can someone dress up a 747-8i in BA scheme like someone did with the A380?

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00006138.jpg
Combo by Martin Aves from a template by Martin Aves. Photo hosted by Modified Airliners.net

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Richard28
Posted 2007-09-25 01:03:15 and read 23522 times.

Quoting SkyTaxi (Reply 48):

...but Airbus builds their planes using the Euro.

the answer is hedging

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedging...ign_Exchange_Risk.2C_or_FX_Risk.29

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: StarGoldLHR
Posted 2007-09-25 01:46:10 and read 23126 times.

Generally in most industries I work in...

If a sales man jumps the gun, brags about an order that has not yet been announced by the customer...

usually results in the buyer switching order to a competitor by default and immediately disqualifies himself from the running (and in some cases even ends up being sued).

This guy, if he works for Boeing, better watch his mouth or it'll hit his wallet.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 03:02:20 and read 22511 times.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 53):
This guy, if he works for Boeing, better watch his mouth or it'll hit his wallet.

Read my Reply 11, where I between other wrote:
"Unfortunately, each time more so, publications as Avionews and Flight global seem to convert themselves in propagators of unsupported rumors.
What means "on behalf of...." ?!. This seems that Avionews heard it through another or even a chain of other person who did so, so they do not know what he really said"
]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Carls
Posted 2007-09-25 03:05:38 and read 22491 times.

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 41):
The fact that there are no 748i's in that list tells me the source is dubious. I think BA will, like LH, go for the A380 AND the 748. They have shed loads of 744's, and while some will be replaced with A380's and others with A350-1000's, there are going to be plenty that will need to be replaced/augmented with 748's.

Agree completely. I see a very nice 748i order coming. I'm not sure about the 787. Could be a split with the 350. I say no 380 at this time.

I don't think BA will order the 748. They just don't need it now.
Actually, I seriously believe that even Lufthansa will switch their passenger order to cargo, signing with that the death of the ancient B747 program.
And I know now I will be under fire because I said this, but it's just my impression.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SkyGazer
Posted 2007-09-25 03:10:35 and read 22427 times.

Quoting Carls (Reply 55):
don't think BA will order the 748. They just don't need it now.

That's quite a bizzare comment. BA have ~50 744s, some of them a decade or so old and needing replacement in the next few years. What do you suppose they replace them with? 50 A380s?

The eventual "big" widebody fleet at BA will probably a mix of A380, 748i and A350 types.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: StarGoldLHR
Posted 2007-09-25 03:14:26 and read 22376 times.

Quoting Carls (Reply 55):
I don't think BA will order the 748. They just don't need it now.
Actually, I seriously believe that even Lufthansa will switch their passenger order to cargo, signing with that the death of the ancient B747 program.
And I know now I will be under fire because I said this, but it's just my impression.

I possibly agree.. I never quite understood why LH would have ordered the 748 and the A380...480 to 550 seats isnt that big a deal in the big scheme of costs of additional pilots, maintenace, training, spares handling for the next 15 years etc...
Even then those 70 empty seats could be replaced by additional cargo in the hold quite easily.

a fleet of 747-400Fs would fit in quite well.

one or the other would make sense, but a fleet of both for such a little difference in capacity for a 15-25 year period to me doesnt seem worthwhile ?

Having said that there are a number of airlines with 777's and A340s.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: KrisYYZ
Posted 2007-09-25 03:44:41 and read 22113 times.

IMO BA's order will have a significant impact on the aviation industry. The B748-I is not doing that well, after all it is a redesign of a redesigned plane (I don't mean to bash the Queen, there's no other plane that comes close to the prestige of a 747) If BA orders the new jumbo, I think other airline who currently operate B747 may be more willing to do so as well.

Some really good points have been made about the likelyhood of BA ordering both the B748 and A380. As an aviation enthusiast I am hoping for a split Airbus and Boeing order , eventhough BA hasn't really done that in the past. .

Has BA announced the withdrawal date of its B767s yet? Is there any chance that the B767/757 fleet may get winglets in order to make them more economical to fly until the B787s and/or A350s join BA's fleet?

KrisYYZ

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Blsbls99
Posted 2007-09-25 04:16:04 and read 21837 times.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 57):
Even then those 70 empty seats could be replaced by additional cargo in the hold quite easily.

I thought the A380 had less cargo hold than the 748?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2007-09-25 05:35:15 and read 21282 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 42):
Please remember that BA?s 744?s are flown to a lot of international airports which are not necessarily capable of handling A380?s.

Really? Which ones? And why can't they handle A380s when they already handle B744s?

Gemuser

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: DL767captain
Posted 2007-09-25 06:21:31 and read 21006 times.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 59):
Really? Which ones? And why can't they handle A380s when they already handle B744s?

many airports need to be strengthened and markers changed to allow the larger and heavier A380 to taxi and move around.

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 57):
The B748-I is not doing that well, after all it is a redesign of a redesigned plane (I don't mean to bash the Queen, there's no other plane that comes close to the prestige of a 747) If BA orders the new jumbo, I think other airline who currently operate B747 may be more willing to do so as well.

which probably means Boeing is being extremely generous with the price to try and entice BA to order the 748 and get the orders rolling. Airbus could be competitive but i think they are at a point where they need to start charging a little more on the A380 after all their trouble they had that put them in a financial set back. Boeing has a ton of money to work with from the success of the 787 and can give a much better deal.

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 57):
Some really good points have been made about the likelyhood of BA ordering both the B748 and A380. As an aviation enthusiast I am hoping for a split Airbus and Boeing order , eventhough BA hasn't really done that in the past.

Hasn't BA said they would not split their order? i could be wrong but i think that would be stupid, there are routes that would need the A380 and others that only need the 748, both planes would work great for them, more 748s than A380s. The fact that they have so many 744s currently says to me that they will go with the 748 which they currently have and cockpit commanality is most likely similar to the 744.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 06:31:43 and read 20906 times.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 59):
Quoting SA7700 (Reply 42):
Please remember that BA?s 744?s are flown to a lot of international airports which are not necessarily capable of handling A380?s.

Really? Which ones? And why can't they handle A380s when they already handle B744s?

Virtually all of them which are not willing to spend many ten millions dollars to upgrade their facilities. I am sure other more knowledgeable a-netters will provide you with more details. You are surly aware that the A380 has by far more weight and wing span, as well passenger exit on two levels, between other.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-25 06:35:08 and read 20868 times.

Quoting Blsbls99 (Reply 58):
I thought the A380 had less cargo hold than the 748?

It does, once you take into account passenger baggage. But I guess if you take out 70 pax, then you can put in more payload in the hold?

Then again, if you are willing to leave Y pax behind (and ruining the CASM advantage the A380 has), why not just buy a 77W and then carry even more cargo volume with a higher RASM to boot...  Wink

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Aleksandar
Posted 2007-09-25 06:46:05 and read 20777 times.

It would surprise me if BA doesn't order 787 and 748s. As for A350 and A380, it remains to be seen.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Phishphan70
Posted 2007-09-25 06:49:02 and read 20752 times.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):

Hasn't BA said they would not split their order? i could be wrong but i think that would be stupid, there are routes that would need the A380 and others that only need the 748, both planes would work great for them, more 748s than A380s. The fact that they have so many 744s currently says to me that they will go with the 748 which they currently have and cockpit commanality is most likely similar to the 744.

the 748 seems more like a regular aircraft than the gigantic 380. some routes need a giant because demand is so high and we'll still see multiple daily flights on some routes that have an A380(s) in rotation, but some routes are perfectly sized for a 744 daily, and maybe could fill a few extra, or could use a little extra to room to stretch out and fill the belly with profitable cargo....where the 748 comes in to play a crucial roll. i think we'll possibly see more airlines flying both the 748 and 380 as time moves on and airlines who already operate A380's expand and acquire more VLA.
like I've said before, the 380 is great on some routes, but the 748 can handle some other routes more profitably for some airlines, and is much easier to fill to 100% capacity......

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Baroque
Posted 2007-09-25 07:07:24 and read 20628 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 61):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 59):
Quoting SA7700 (Reply 42):
Please remember that BA?s 744?s are flown to a lot of international airports which are not necessarily capable of handling A380?s.

Really? Which ones? And why can't they handle A380s when they already handle B744s?

Virtually all of them which are not willing to spend many ten millions dollars to upgrade their facilities. I am sure other more knowledgeable a-netters will provide you with more details. You are surly aware that the A380 has by far more weight and wing span, as well passenger exit on two levels, between other.

You might want to check the runway loading Cam. But it definitely has long wings and two decks. Not sure what "between other" means so it is difficult to comment.  Smile  Smile

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2007-09-25 07:42:19 and read 20410 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 61):
Virtually all of them which are not willing to spend many ten millions dollars to upgrade their facilities.

(a) there is a latent assumption that the 748I will not require any airport improvements. It is 10% heavier than a 744, has 6% greater wingspan than a 744, has similar wheelbase and pavement loading as the A388, and requires ~10% more runway to take off than the A388. Remember this ain't a 744 anymore.

(b) airports can turn up their noses all they want, but in the end demand will drive the improvements. Airports like ATL and LAS will welcome the A380 as soon as there is enough demand... regardless of the anti-A380 bluster we've heard from them in the past.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2007-09-25 07:46:02 and read 20369 times.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
many airports need to be strengthened and markers changed to allow the larger and heavier A380 to taxi and move around.



Quoting Caminito (Reply 61):
Virtually all of them which are not willing to spend many ten millions dollars to upgrade their facilities. I am sure other more knowledgeable a-netters will provide you with more details. You are surly aware that the A380 has by far more weight and wing span, as well passenger exit on two levels, between other.

You all might want to check out the A380 Airport Comparability manual on airbus.com.
The A380 requires LESS pavement strength than the B744 & B773 & A346 as, despite its higher weight, it has a LOWER pavement loading than these aircraft. Basically it has less weight (at MTOW) per wheel then they do.
Its wheel base width is less than the B773 & (I think) A346. It is not as long as the A346 or (I think) B773. It does have greater wing span.
The A380 does NOT require two level entrance/exit, it is quite happy with current aero bridges or even remote stands.
It is certified to use 45m wide runways, just like the B744.

In short, if an airport has reasonable B744 &/or B773 &/or A346 operations it will require very little in modification to handle the A380, UNLESS the airport has an "absolute weight limited" structure, whose limit is LESS than 600t. These structures are usually runway/taxiway bridges & tunnels and are relatively rare.

So I ask again, what airports than BA fly B744s into will require EXTENSIVE upgrading to handle the A380?

Gemuser

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 07:54:19 and read 20303 times.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 65):
You might want to check the runway loading Cam. But it definitely has long wings and two decks. Not sure what "between other" means so it is difficult to comment.

As several airports are upgrading their runways, I assume this is not because of the static load, but the max.asymetric landing impact.
Between other: distances between run-taxiways, distance between bridges, internal airport facilities as passport control, baggage handling and customs

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2007-09-25 07:59:12 and read 20278 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 68):
As several airports are upgrading their runways, I assume this is not because of the static load, but the max.asymetric landing impact.
Between other: distances between run-taxiways, distance between bridges, internal airport facilities as passport control, baggage handling and customs

NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

Read the F*** manual

gemuser

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Baroque
Posted 2007-09-25 08:13:50 and read 20166 times.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
Quoting Caminito (Reply 68):
As several airports are upgrading their runways, I assume this is not because of the static load, but the max.asymetric landing impact.
Between other: distances between run-taxiways, distance between bridges, internal airport facilities as passport control, baggage handling and customs

NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

Gemuser has set it out better than I could. I am not sure how the lower average wheel loading is going to give you more trouble with an asymmetric landing - unless you are saying only 380s would have that problem and all 744s and 748s are always symmetric in their landings.

If the taxiways are not widened, the adjacent grass will get blasted, although I seem to remember reading the outer engines can be throttled back specifically to reduce that problem.

As Gemuser writes:
"The A380 does NOT require two level entrance/exit, it is quite happy with current aero bridges or even remote stands.
It is certified to use 45m wide runways, just like the B744."

And WingedMigrator writes the 748i:
"requires ~10% more runway to take off than the A388. Remember this ain't a 744 anymore."

Basically, the 388 keeps having stats that tend to belie its rather considerable size.

The history during testing seems to show that any changes will be towards rather than away from conforming with the requirements for existing aircraft.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2007-09-25 08:20:35 and read 20110 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 66):
there is a latent assumption that the 748I will not require any airport improvements. It is 10% heavier than a 744, has 6% greater wingspan than a 744, has similar wheelbase and pavement loading as the A388, and requires ~10% more runway to take off than the A388. Remember this ain't a 744 anymore.

You're right that there is a latent assumption among some here that the 747-8I will be able to operate from every airport at which the 747-400 can operate. You're also right that that assumption is false. The WhaleJet can (or will soon be able to) enjoy normal operations (e.g. taxiing without halting all other taxi ops) at about 25 airports worldwide. The 747-400 has in fact operated from about 210 airports worldwide. The number that can handle the 747-8I in normal operations is somewhere between.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 66):
airports can turn up their noses all they want, but in the end demand will drive the improvements. Airports like ATL and LAS will welcome the A380 as soon as there is enough demand...

That would be true IF there were ever such demand, which has been looking decreasingly likely each year since 2001. We're now in the biggest sales boom in airliner history and the VLA offerings of both Airbus and Boeing are the only aircraft that are not selling in any sort of reasonable numbers. The airlines want every sized aircraft they can get below about 400 seats. Above 400 seats, there is no significant demand.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 68):
distances between run-taxiways, distance between bridges, internal airport facilities as passport control, baggage handling and customs

 checkmark 

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

It's much worse than that. Because of the WhaleJet's unprecedented wingspan, taxiways have to be moved or WhaleJets can only taxi either when a another runway or taxiway is closed or when a row of gates is empty of longer aircraft depending on where the taxiway is located.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2007-09-25 08:28:23 and read 20044 times.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 59):
Really? Which ones? And why can't they handle A380s when they already handle B744s?

At the top of my head:

EZE
GRU
LOS
SEA
BOS??

please correct me if I am wrong


Taxiways and runways have to be widened. Oversized baggage carousels have to be in place, while A380-ready gates with dual airbridges have to be built.


Rgds

SA7700

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zvezda
Posted 2007-09-25 08:39:07 and read 19952 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 72):
Taxiways and runways have to be widened.

Taxiways often must widened or moved, but runways don't have be widened (perhaps moved though).

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 72):
A380-ready gates with dual airbridges have to be built.

No, a WhaleJet can operate with a single airbridge though carriers might find it not economically justifiable to do so. In theory, a WhaleJet doesn't need any airbridge at all. It could be embarked and disembarked using stairs, though I would not consider that "normal operations."

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columba
Posted 2007-09-25 09:04:21 and read 19741 times.

Quote:
British Airways could announce a possible purchase of B-787s and B-747s within two weeks. Air France-Klm and Luftansa are considering this option in the context of an expansion and renewal programme for their long-range fleet, but the decision will not be made before 2008".

Interesting does this quote mean that apart from BA also AF-KLM and LH are considering a 747-8I / 787 combo.
LH already has the 747-8 on order, I can see AF-KLM ordering 787s but never heard that they are interested in the 747-8I since they were focusing on A380s and 77Ws.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columba
Posted 2007-09-25 09:24:58 and read 19561 times.

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 57):
. The B748-I is not doing that well, after all it is a redesign of a redesigned plane

So what ? What is the 737NG ? You could not say this was not a succesful aircraft even if it is the third incarnation of an aircraft developed in the 1960s (1. 737-100/-200 2. 737-300 - 500 3. 737-700-900ER).

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
Hasn't BA said they would not split their order?

A few weeks ago there was an article in the Sunday Times quoting a BA manager saying that they could imagine a split order between the A350 and the 787 because they consider them different aircraft for different missions.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Abba
Posted 2007-09-25 09:28:15 and read 19522 times.

Quoting SkyTaxi (Reply 47):
...but Airbus builds their planes using the Euro.

Airplanes are hugely international products with parts from all over the globe. Most of it is (likely) traded in US$. And as assembly in the US is payed for with US$ there might be a certain short term advantage for Boeing when the US$ goes down. However, as stated before, the strategy of lowering your currency to become more competitive is like p***** in your pants on a cold day to keep warm...


Abba

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: GBan
Posted 2007-09-25 09:32:16 and read 19483 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 37):
Boeing can offer the B748i at cost if they wish, knowing the dollar amount to a good degree of certainty. Airbus cannot be so certain what the dollar-equivalent cost of an A380 will be in the future, so they must take a risk in discounting their product.

Assuming that the Euro value will be even higher at time of delivery. Is that certain?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Theginge
Posted 2007-09-25 09:47:10 and read 19368 times.

BA's CEO stated last week that BA could order Airbus and Boeing.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...l-fleet-decision-in-two-weeks.html


I think the order may be split between the 2 as neither one or the other can provide all the aircraft that would fit BA's needs.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Parapente
Posted 2007-09-25 10:59:20 and read 18844 times.

I cannot help feeling that the key statements have already been made. This thread started with Boeing unable to contain themselves about the "soon/possible " order from BA. At exactly the same time Airbus have stated "10,000 additional redundancies possible due to $ Euro exchange rate". I would say that is preparation for the announcement. It does not look good for Airbus IMHO. I still believe that BA will order the A380. Maybe now,maybe not.I hope now. But I really cannot see an initial order much exceeding 12 or so - just as Willie has always said.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columba
Posted 2007-09-25 11:51:53 and read 18469 times.

Maybe the switch to A380's style nose for the A350XWB announced last week has something to do with this order.
It would offer more commonality for airlines that operate both aircraft maybe this is something BA wanted from Airbus.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: VV701
Posted 2007-09-25 12:08:38 and read 18338 times.

Quoting Iwok (Reply 39):
An internal decision must have been made by now I suspect.

Yes. The "final" decision has to be made by the Commercial Director. Then it needs the blessing of the CFO. It then needs to be approved and endorsed by the CEO. It then has to be presented for final approval at a meeting of the Board of Directors. This requires the production of a formal and detailed (but not too technical) presentation no doubt showing why it is more appropriate to purchase aircraft A instead . . . Sorry! If I use "A" and "B" I'll get flamed. No doubt showing why it is more appropriate to purchase aircraft Y instead of aircraft Z. So if the decision is to be made public within 2 weeks - and that's out of the mouth of Willie Walsh - somebody must already be working hard to produce a formal presentation for the Board.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
Hasn't BA said they would not split their order?

Yes. They have said that they will not split THIS order between the 748i and 380.

THIS order, despite some of the very high numbers suggested by some in this thread, is to replace 20 744s and the (long haul?) 763 fleet. So we can be sure that it will not be for 86 aircraft as one a-netter who claims insider information has suggested. And we can also be sure that if THIS order includes one and not the other VLA on offer - and there is just a chance it will include neither - it does not mean that the NEXT order will not include the other or, indeed, both or, perhaps, neither.

And this is the problem with a thread like this. Certain facts are known (like those I have just detailed). Of course nothing is cast in concrete until it is actually announced. But at the same time the likes of Willie Walsh has to be very careful about what he has said publicly about the order. To say one thing and then do another could be construed as misleading investors and potential investors and bring BA into conflict with the Financial Services Authority.

But those who are predicting an order that will include replacements for aircraft like BA's 744 G-BYGG (delivered as recently as 29 April 1999) when BA has a publicly declared policy of operating its aircraft for between 15 and 25 years and has actually operated 747s for up to 27 years before replacing them, are really not thinking things through properly before drawing their conclusions. Perhaps their heart is ruling their head.

And those that are suggesting that BA will announce an order to replace their 772 fleet now or in the near future when they placed an order for four of these aircraft and took out formal options on another four as recently as last February . . . Well, they must be smoking something.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Parapente
Posted 2007-09-25 12:09:49 and read 18339 times.

"Maybe the switch to A380's style nose for the A350XWB announced last week has something to do with this order.
It would offer more commonality for airlines that operate both aircraft maybe this is something BA wanted from Airbus."


Not if you read todays Flight Int. They are moving away from the A380 flight deck and towards the B787. I would say that that if anything is a clear indication that they accept the reality of the situation. Namely that most airlines will have the 787 and they need to fit in with the "twin engine" strategies of the Worlds airlines rather than the increasingly "one off" A380 -sadly.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2007-09-25 12:14:04 and read 18268 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 81):
Quoting Iwok (Reply 39):
An internal decision must have been made by now I suspect.

Yes. The "final" decision has to be made by the Commercial Director. Then it needs the blessing of the CFO. It then needs to be approved and endorsed by the CEO. It then has to be presented for final approval at a meeting of the Board of Directors. This requires the production of a formal and detailed (but not too technical) presentation no doubt showing why it is more appropriate to purchase aircraft A instead . . . Sorry! If I use "A" and "B" I'll get flamed. No doubt showing why it is more appropriate to purchase aircraft Y instead of aircraft Z. So if the decision is to be made public within 2 weeks - and that's out of the mouth of Willie Walsh - somebody must already be working hard to produce a formal presentation for the Board.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
Hasn't BA said they would not split their order?

Yes. They have said that they will not split THIS order between the 748i and 380.

THIS order, despite some of the very high numbers suggested by some in this thread, is to replace 20 744s and the (long haul?) 763 fleet. So we can be sure that it will not be for 86 aircraft as one a-netter who claims insider information has suggested. And we can also be sure that if THIS order includes one and not the other VLA on offer - and there is just a chance it will include neither - it does not mean that the NEXT order will not include the other or, indeed, both or, perhaps, neither.

And this is the problem with a thread like this. Certain facts are known (like those I have just detailed). Of course nothing is cast in concrete until it is actually announced. But at the same time the likes of Willie Walsh has to be very careful about what he has said publicly about the order. To say one thing and then do another could be construed as misleading investors and potential investors and bring BA into conflict with the Financial Services Authority.

But those who are predicting an order that will include replacements for aircraft like BA's 744 G-BYGG (delivered as recently as 29 April 1999) when BA has a publicly declared policy of operating its aircraft for between 15 and 25 years and has actually operated 747s for up to 27 years before replacing them, are really not thinking things through properly before drawing their conclusions. Perhaps their heart is ruling their head.

And those that are suggesting that BA will announce an order to replace their 772 fleet now or in the near future when they placed an order for four of these aircraft and took out formal options on another four as recently as last February . . . Well, they must be smoking something.

A magnificent post.

Some sense being spoken at last!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Airways45
Posted 2007-09-25 12:47:44 and read 18001 times.

I'll place my bet on BA ordering maybe 25 or so 787s (ideal size as 767s replacements, and A350 is too big for this replacement), and, perhaps up to 15 or so A380s. I don't think BA will go for the 747-8i which, if my view is correct, will be a big disappointment to Boeing.

So, Boeing gets 787s in BA, and, Airbus gets A380s. I would ve very surprised if BA ordered A350s.

However, we shall see.

It's quite exciting to see what they come up with in the end.

Airways45

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Carls
Posted 2007-09-25 13:13:48 and read 17796 times.

Quoting SkyGazer (Reply 55):
What do you suppose they replace them with? 50 A380s?

No, they will replace them with 15 firm A380 and 10 Commitment.
I know all the A.Net "airlines management" will start saying that this is not going to happen, I just have to say let's wait and see what they will order. End of the chapter for me.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Jonathan-l
Posted 2007-09-25 13:40:30 and read 17572 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 72):
Taxiways and runways have to be widened. Oversized baggage carousels have to be in place, while A380-ready gates with dual airbridges have to be built

It is the myths of all myths that the airport infrastructure is a showstopper for airlines.
Airports are building bigger terminals, bigger customs areas, bigger luggage carrousels... for the increase in air traffic, whether the pax deplane from an A380 or 787 or A320 or CRJ.

Are MROs ready today for the 787 new maintenance requirements?
That's not stopping anyone from ordering the 787 wherever in the world.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Carls
Posted 2007-09-25 13:41:27 and read 17573 times.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
many airports need to be strengthened and markers changed to allow the larger and heavier A380 to taxi and move around.

I thought the A380 was certified to use 45m wide runways same sizes that the 747 works.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
which probably means Boeing is being extremely generous with the price to try and entice BA to order the 748 and get the orders rolling.



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
Boeing has a ton of money to work with from the success of the 787 and can give a much better deal.

So let me see, Boeing can give the 747 away because it is an old program and they just need to recover just what they invest to stretch it and put some new technology on it. Also, they are struggled with the 787 and they can give better deal than Airbus because Airbus was struggled with the A380 and A350. Great statement !!!!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Brilondon
Posted 2007-09-25 14:26:27 and read 17115 times.

Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 21):
That doesnt mean we cannot speculate

And that's half the fun on here to see speculation and supposition and innuendo. Big grin

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columba
Posted 2007-09-25 14:28:56 and read 17090 times.

“Our order will be made up of either Boeing or Airbus, or Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The aircraft will have two decks, or one deck, or one and half decks.”

I like the humor of Mr.Walsh, maybe he is reading a.net  Smile

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-25 14:41:54 and read 16977 times.

Thank you, VV701, for an excellent and reasoned post.

So I think we're looking at a mixed 747-8I and 787 order.

Why?

Because BA wants to replace their oldest 747-400s and can get 747-8Is years before they can get A380-800s. Also, the 748I is a more measured increase in capacity then the A388 and since we're talking "near term" here, BA likely doesn't want to make an immediate large capacity jump in those replacements. The 748I can replace the oldest 744s on the highest-density routes now, and the remaining 744s can be shuffled around.

In the interim five years, BA will be able to watch A380 operations by SQ, QF, EK and others. They can see how the A388 works on many of the worlds main trunk routes and let those airlines go through the "teething issues". Then, around 2010, BA can place their A388 order with deliveries likely around 2014-2015. This would also be a perfect time for an A350 order and delivery, as well.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Columba
Posted 2007-09-25 14:55:05 and read 16829 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):

Because BA wants to replace their oldest 747-400s and can get 747-8Is years before they can get A380-800s. Also, the 748I is a more measured increase in capacity then the A388 and since we're talking "near term" here, BA likely doesn't want to make an immediate large capacity jump in those replacements. The 748I can replace the oldest 744s on the highest-density routes now, and the remaining 744s can be shuffled around.

There was news on this board a few weeks ago that BA could get earlier delivery slots, if I recall correctly deferred from Ethiad.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-25 14:55:52 and read 16828 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):
In the interim five years, BA will be able to watch A380 operations by SQ, QF, EK and others. They can see how the A388 works on many of the worlds main trunk routes and let those airlines go through the "teething issues".

I think the A380 is proven compared to the 747-8i. The 747-8i will fly in a few years with new wings, engines, FbW, fuselage lenght, cabin interior and systems. The fleet of A380 has clocked an unprecedented number of test hours all over the world during the last 3 yrs & qualified. Hopefully the 747-8i will do ok too.

As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year, that means 25% in 5 years. BA buys aircraft for 20-25 yrs. The A380 being to big to replace a 747 doesn't convince.

Apart from that the A380 will be quieter do something good with availabel slots, will have a smaller noise footprint and probably offer lower fuel / passenger. That counts too around LHR these days. http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/24/business/air.php

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2007-09-25 15:01:06 and read 16757 times.

Quoting Columba (Reply 92):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):

Because BA wants to replace their oldest 747-400s and can get 747-8Is years before they can get A380-800s. Also, the 748I is a more measured increase in capacity then the A388 and since we're talking "near term" here, BA likely doesn't want to make an immediate large capacity jump in those replacements. The 748I can replace the oldest 744s on the highest-density routes now, and the remaining 744s can be shuffled around.

There was news on this board a few weeks ago that BA could get earlier delivery slots, if I recall correctly deferred from Ethiad.

I think EY only had two airframes booked though. Were the FX slots reallocated?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-25 15:14:33 and read 16615 times.

Quoting Columba (Reply 92):
There was news on this board a few weeks ago that BA could get earlier delivery slots, if I recall correctly deferred from Ethiad.

At best, that is four birds, which is insufficient to replace 20 744s. Also, those four birds are test-frames and BA might not want to start with those. And one of them has EA power (though I think it started with RR power).

Quoting Keesje (Reply 93):
I think the A380 is proven compared to the 747-8i. The 747-8i will fly in a few years with new wings, engines, FbW, fuselage lenght, cabin interior and systems. The fleet of A380 has clocked an unprecedented number of test hours all over the world during the last 3 yrs & qualified. Hopefully the 747-8i will do ok too.

My comments on "teething" were not aimed at the A380-800 herself, but to the facilities she will visit and the staff that will work with her. Even those that are fully "A380 ready" physically still need to test and refine procedures to handle close to 500 passengers at all stages of the flight process. Airports also need to test and refine procedures for mixing A380s into the "general" traffic flow. I don't expect there to be any "show stoppers", but neither do I expect it to be "business as usual" from Day One. It will take a bit of time, especially when "irregular operations" are first thrown into the mix.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-09-25 15:57:49 and read 16239 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):
This would also be a perfect time for an A350 order and delivery, as well.

If the A350 continues to garner orders, and they wait as long as you suggest, they wont receive their A350s until 2020. The time for BA to order A350s is now; right now. They already completely missed the boat on the 787, and wont take delivery of 787s in any significant quantity until 2014, years after most of their competitors will have fleets of them.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-25 16:09:58 and read 16120 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):
Then, around 2010, BA can place their A388 order with deliveries likely around 2014-2015. This would also be a perfect time for an A350 order and delivery, as well.

I agree. A B748i order now makes great sense, and they leave open the option of buying the A388 later.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 93):
As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year, that means 25% in 5 years.

5% over 5 years would be closer to 28% Keesje. Even if that optimistic view is correct, BA cannot assume that they would enjoy a 28% increase in passengers. The bulk of any increase in BA's markets will be carried by LCC's. The last thing BA needs in the face of LCC competition is excess capacity.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: JAAlbert
Posted 2007-09-25 16:38:30 and read 15821 times.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 60):
Hasn't BA said they would not split their order?

I thought BA had backed away from this statement.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-25 17:01:10 and read 15613 times.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 95):
If the A350 continues to garner orders, and they wait as long as you suggest, they wont receive their A350s until 2020. The time for BA to order A350s is now; right now. They already completely missed the boat on the 787, and wont take delivery of 787s in any significant quantity until 2014, years after most of their competitors will have fleets of them.

I think you have a point here. While we all know this order will be for replacing a limited fleet only now, I guess BA will take a pile of options to ensure future deliveries of aircraft equiped with the new, quieter, savier RR and GE engines.

E.g. many of BA's 777s or 747 might have technically lifetime remaining of at least another 15 years. If their economic life time matched that with $81 /barrel and new aircraft doing the same job with >20% less fuel..

Might be a reason why airlines / leasing companies have been ordering wildly during the last few years. They don't want to get stuck with aircraft that burn too much / make to much noise, unable to get new ones from heavely overbooked production lines..

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Theginge
Posted 2007-09-25 17:04:01 and read 15582 times.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 95):
If the A350 continues to garner orders, and they wait as long as you suggest, they wont receive their A350s until 2020. The time for BA to order A350s is now; right now. They already completely missed the boat on the 787, and wont take delivery of 787s in any significant quantity until 2014, years after most of their competitors will have fleets of them.

BA will be able to get 787's before that if they order them. Airline manufacturers would be stupid not to leave some slack in the production lines for orders to come from prestigious customers like BA late in the day. There are also the leasing companies that BA could get aircraft from as well if it needed them quickly. Likewise if they order A350s late in the day they will get them before 2020!

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 97):
I thought BA had backed away from this statement.

I believe that BA will order the aircraft that fit their needs best, and if that involves both Boeing and Airbus aircraft then it will do that.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-09-25 17:06:33 and read 15544 times.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 71):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

It's much worse than that. Because of the WhaleJet's unprecedented wingspan, taxiways have to be moved or WhaleJets can only taxi either when a another runway or taxiway is closed or when a row of gates is empty of longer aircraft depending on where the taxiway is located.

 checkmark ...that is how SFO will operate when (if) an A380 comes to SFO.....

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Parapente
Posted 2007-09-25 17:12:29 and read 15469 times.

In terms of when BA get the 787 (if they order it). I thought that airlines were offered the opportunity to put down small deposits that tied up potental delivery slots.They have (quite rightly) never been made public. Whether there were time limits (say now or have it returned) again has not been made public. However considering how perfect a fit the 787 is for a 767 replacement I would be surprised if BA had not taken this decision.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Addrenaline
Posted 2007-09-25 17:13:48 and read 15471 times.

BA 's choice will simply be for the product that is :
1. Greener, better for the environment !
2. Whichever product gives BA more oportunity for growth, due to slot availability at LHR.
Remember dispite what you hear about inpending 3rd runway slots at Heathrow are a big issue, and with open skies there value and availability will diminish. Delta, Continental, US airways, Northwest and our services to DFW IAH and ATL will all be moving to LHR...

With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

The environment effect is Big with BA and Willie...

Add

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 17:19:19 and read 15388 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 96):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 93):
As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year, that means 25% in 5 years
[quote=TeamAmerica,reply=96]The bulk of any increase in BA's markets will be carried by LCC's. The last thing BA needs in the face of LCC competition is excess capacity

Many A-netters which believe that the market, especially the A380's, will grow strongly (example: 5%/year as Keesje posts), also seem to believe that the enormous expansion plans of the Near East and Southeast Asia carriers are realistic. The market for the A380s is located in a high percentage within this region and the Far East, where such airlines as EK, QR, SQ, QF and other minor, in addition of LH and AF, will introduce huge numbers of A380 (these airlines counting for about 80% of the current 165 orders for this aircraft model)

Therefore, within such scenario, it would seem that BA would be very happy to be able to maintain their present pax numbers in this let's call it "A380 apt market", further eroded by the P2P flights and the LCC factor, let alone to expect any significant grow.

[Edited 2007-09-25 17:23:29]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: T773ER
Posted 2007-09-25 17:24:45 and read 15329 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 102):
With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

I don't think BA will make a decision based solely on environmental impact.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-25 17:36:34 and read 15212 times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 100):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 71):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

It's much worse than that. Because of the WhaleJet's unprecedented wingspan, taxiways have to be moved or WhaleJets can only taxi either when a another runway or taxiway is closed or when a row of gates is empty of longer aircraft depending on where the taxiway is located.

...that is how SFO will operate when (if) an A380 comes to SFO.....

Will a BA 787 fit all 767 gates? I think it carriers much more seat too.. we must worn BA on the gates..

  

Quoting Caminito (Reply 103):
Many A-netters which believe that the market, especially the A380's, will grow strongly (example: 5%/year as Keesje posts)

Even worse Boeing, Rolls & Airbus Too ..   
http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/g...fs/2_gmf_demand-for-air-travel.pdf
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/images/lg_highlights_cmo07.gif
http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer...look/downloads/outlook06-09-07.pdf

Quoting Caminito (Reply 103):
huge numbers of A380 (these airlines counting for about 80% of the current 165 orders for this aircraft model)

173  Wink
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...380orderssept2007.jpg?t=1190734754

[Edited 2007-09-25 17:40:07]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Mutu
Posted 2007-09-25 17:48:50 and read 15153 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 90):
Because BA wants to replace their oldest 747-400s and can get 747-8Is years before they can get A380-800s. Also, the 748I is a more measured increase in capacity then the A388 and since we're talking "near term" here, BA likely doesn't want to make an immediate large capacity jump in those replacements. The 748I can replace the oldest 744s on the highest-density routes now, and the remaining 744s can be shuffled around.

And there it is at last! WHilst we all like to discuss/dream/fantasise/hope that BA will go for A or B or both, and demonstrate our knowledge to support our claims, the truth is we do not know the airlines plans for its flying program for the next 20 years. Even BA will have a number of scenarios as there is considerable uncertainty at this time. Perhaps ironically the timing of this INITIAL order comes at a most problematic time for the industry.

At a simple level many have argued that as the largest operator of 744, BA will be compelled to buy at least some 748i /773 together with A380. But that depends on whether BA believe they will increase capacity modestly, significantly or not at all. It also depends on whether there are sufficient markets that they operate which would support increased frequency. Or enough viable new routes to expand into.

In order to simulate the deliberations of the Directors of BA we should surely consider the following:

1. the BA route network is largely highly competitive. Its historic strength has been LHR ironically, which was a natural connection hub for flights ex USA to middle east, Africa, India etc. Not that long ago traffic had to touch down somewhere on route and so flying BA and connecting through LHR was the obvious choice for, for example, DXB/JFK, or BOM/ORD. But aircraft advances mean these are now capable non stop and the number of such non stops is increasing taking away transfer connecting traffic from BA. How much more market is at risk from this technical advance?

2. the LCC model is starting to enter the long haul market (Oasis, AIrAsia Express...). and London seems to be on everyones destinations list. What impact does this have on Y volumes in 10 years time.....How does the airline respond? Smaller planes with more premium seats? Same size planes with more premium seats? Reduced frequencies and therefore reduced Y and F/J capacity?

3. Fuel. Just what does happen when oil hits $100 (next year?). And what will oil cost in 10 years and 20 years time? Is this a return to the golden age of high fares and high profits on a smaller flying program? Or does it just kill the industry. What is the replacement and when?

4. Environmental politics. Really like point 3 above. How far will politicians go, how far will they have gone in 10 and 20 years time. What should the replacement cycle be for new fleet going forward to mitigate this. Will demand collapse?

5. Global infrastructure. It isnt just LHR that is bursting at the seams. Its not just airlines that need to spend billions of dollars over the next 10 years to accomodate (currently forecast) demand growth. Airport terminals, runways, ATC all need to be significantly invested in to keep the industry going. What phytsical restrictions on profitable growth will there be? eg BA has a large presence at JFK, rumoured to be expanding with US/EU flights. Yet JFK is at risk of being slot rationed. SO how far could BA expand profits out of JFK?

The decision is most certainly NOT being taken on the basis that A is quicker than B or B is prettier to look at than A or A is larger than B or cheaper CASM or whatever in isolation of business planning propositions. It is not even about which is the better plane. It is about which plane best fits the business plan.

And on that basis if the benefits support it, ultimately when it comes to the real (big follow up) order, you could see A and B flying side by side, even 787 and 350, 773 and 380 and 748. SO we can all be right!!

When we have built the business plan with sufficient flexibility accomodating these key scenarios we will be closer to the answer when it comes!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Addrenaline
Posted 2007-09-25 18:00:50 and read 15095 times.

Quoting T773ER (Reply 104):

Well if you you believe that you will have a surprise in store !

Add

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 18:00:58 and read 15095 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 105):
Even worse Boeing, Rolls & Airbus Too ..

You seem to have missed totally my point  Big grin

I am not denying that the overall markets will continue to grow (except during economic downturns, which certainly can happen), but saying IMO why the BA pax within what I called the "A380 apt market" will not do so or even decrease.

And this is the only relevant issue from the BA point of view, you surly will agree at least with that!  Wink

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-25 18:18:38 and read 15036 times.

Quoting Mutu (Reply 106):
Fuel. Just what does happen when oil hits $100 (next year?). And what will oil cost in 10 years and 20 years time? Is this a return to the golden age of high fares and high profits on a smaller flying program?

Yes...there is actually a bit of a silver lining for those who get to keep their jobs. As fuel becomes the biggest cost factor, labor and infrastructure become lesser concerns. But we're wandering off topic....let's do this some other time.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-25 18:18:54 and read 15035 times.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 95):
If the A350 continues to garner orders, and they wait as long as you suggest, they wont receive their A350s until 2020. The time for BA to order A350s is now; right now. They already completely missed the boat on the 787, and wont take delivery of 787s in any significant quantity until 2014, years after most of their competitors will have fleets of them.

Airbus is claiming a 13 unit per month production rate for the A350. They should still have delivery slots available in 2014 for the A350-900 and 2015 for the A350-800 and A350-1000.

So whether they order the 787 or the A350, they're looking at 2014.

If BA takes the 787 first, nothing is stopping them from securing A350 production slots now for the months between 2014 and 2016 to give them time to decide how the plane fits into their longer term plans. And those slots could become valuable capital to BA.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: AF022
Posted 2007-09-25 18:54:23 and read 14911 times.

How much commonality is there between the B787 and the B748?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 20:30:03 and read 14678 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 110):
Airbus is claiming a 13 unit per month production rate for the A350. They should still have delivery slots available in 2014 for the A350-900 and 2015 for the A350-800 and A350-1000.
So whether they order the 787 or the A350, they're looking at 2014.

I thing you have forgotten that Leahy has stated that they want to achieve 13/month after producing if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Even believing this and the delivery dates would be
No.
001: Mid 2013
061: Mid 2015 , first -10, 2016
216: Mid 2016
373: Mid 2017
Airbus claims they have 228 firm orders and at least 100 commitments
Even if we assume that some of above existing orders/commitments are for delivery after 2016/17, the earliest delivery for a new order could not be before End 2016/Start 2017 (not 2014!) and again, 13/month AVERAGE (!) in the 3rd year seems really unbelievable.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: VV701
Posted 2007-09-25 20:49:09 and read 14618 times.

Quoting Columba (Reply 89):
I like the humor of Mr.Walsh,

He also confirmed that all the aircraft that BA will order will have engines!

Now for all you people who are projecting industry growth figures out into the future here are two facts:

The 1996-97 BA Annual Report said that BA carried 38.2 million passengers. And the BA 2006-07 Annual Report said they carried 33.1 million passengers. Yes. This is not comparing like with like as many things have changed over those ten years.

On the other hand BA has consistently been one of the world's most profitable airlines over the same period. The only thing we can be sure about is that BA will not buy the most environmentally friendly aircraft as Willie Walsh has confirmed they will all have engines. And we can be certain that the aircraft BA buys will be manufactured by Airbus and/or Boeing. While we cannot be sure about anything else I believe that they will buy those aircraft that they believe will make most money for their shareholders. No, that does not necessarily mean they will buy the most fuel efficient aircraft. After all the capital cost is a major cost. And you will not make much money flying the world's most fuel efficient airliner if it is always less than half full.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-09-25 20:49:23 and read 14619 times.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 111):
How much commonality is there between the B787 and the B748?

GEnx engine commonality, if you get GEnx on your 787s, although 748 has smaller fan etc. 748 should rather be more flight deck similar to existing 747s, i think, but there may be some upgrades to 748 that are similar to 787 flight deck.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Addrenaline
Posted 2007-09-25 21:45:05 and read 14466 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):

The two prime factors in this order are : Growth & Environment

Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !


Add

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scorpio
Posted 2007-09-25 21:48:50 and read 14442 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Um, from what I gather, Boeing is actually going to try to deliver far more than 60 frames in the first two years of delivery, so I don't see what is so unrealistic about it...

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-25 22:01:40 and read 14384 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):
The two prime factors in this order are : Growth & Environment
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.
It will be a deciding factor !
Add

So they won't be buying a B727 this time? Seriously, aren't Boeing and Airbus products about equal in terms of environmental impact? If they are voting the environment and Boeing is to be believed than I guess the order would go to Boeing, as I found this quote on Boeings Website:

747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/747-8_background.html

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Mutu
Posted 2007-09-25 22:05:19 and read 14362 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 109):
Yes...there is actually a bit of a silver lining for those who get to keep their jobs. As fuel becomes the biggest cost factor, labor and infrastructure become lesser concerns. But we're wandering off topic....let's do this some other time.

I think you should READ other peoples posts carefuly before jumping down their throats. The point is entirely relevent to the thread. But of course I dont possess god like powers like you so I will dutifully leave this debate to you. Two fingers at you.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-25 22:06:39 and read 14355 times.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

Depends on the config. LH believes their A388s will burn about 10% less fuel per km per passenger then their 748s.

However, that figure also cannot be taken as "gospel truth" because LH is likely not flying an A388 and 748 on the exact same route with the A388's payload de-rated to match the 748I's when they calculated that figure.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scorpio
Posted 2007-09-25 22:10:21 and read 14334 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !

Since new products from both manufacturers are probably very close in that department, I don't suspect 'environmental issues' will swing the decision either way. Sure, BA will brag about how much more environmentally friendly their new planes are, but they'll be able to do that whatever they order.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

That's spin for you. The only airline to have so far ordered both the 747-8 and the A380 (Lufthansa) estimantes fuel burn per passenger to be slightly higher on the 747-8 than on the A380.

[Edited 2007-09-25 22:11:56]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Lrdc9
Posted 2007-09-25 22:11:56 and read 14336 times.

I would say B747-8i. They need the high pax capacity. I think that the 787 would be to small for BA. Another order for the 748i might help overall orders as well.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scorpio
Posted 2007-09-25 22:13:23 and read 14318 times.

Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I would say B747-8i. They need the high pax capacity.

Then why not the A380?

Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I think that the 787 would be to small for BA.

787 too small to replace a 767?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: RTFM
Posted 2007-09-25 22:14:05 and read 14308 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 92):
As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year

Sorry but arguments based on 'the market's growing 5% per year therefore BA must buy A380s' is too simplistic. The key questions are 'what markets are growing', 'are BA in a position to exploit that growth' and 'do they want to?' If you look at one of your own source documents (Airbus') the two key growth markets they quote are:

The Indian domestic market - neither opportunity or interest for BA there
Chinese tourism - only limited opportunity or interest.

It also goes on to talk about the growth in leisure travel.

BA's focus has been on higher yielding business travel; it is not interested in growth for growth's sake or filling up planes with lower yielding economy class passengers (hence the conversion of the B744 lo J configs to mid J configs) and (even despite open skies) there are still limitations on which geographical markets BA is able to exploit.

I'm not saying that there might be interest from BA in the A380 (WW has stated there might be for a small fleet of about a dozen) but BA has had its fingers burned before with huge capacity growth in the 90s and I think is unlikely to want to repeat that mistake.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Boeing767-300
Posted 2007-09-25 22:16:01 and read 14292 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 102):
With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

The environment effect is Big with BA and Willie...

Yeah...Ok thats why SRB went with Boeing 787 when one would have expected A350.

Didn't SRB go GE on the 787?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-25 22:25:17 and read 14263 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):
The 1996-97 BA Annual Report said that BA carried 38.2 million passengers. And the BA 2006-07 Annual Report said they carried 33.1 million passengers. Yes. This is not comparing like with like as many things have changed over those ten years.

On the other hand BA has consistently been one of the world's most profitable airlines over the same period.

Excellent post. It would seem that increasing capacity has more potential to be a liability to BA than it might be an asset. Buying smaller aircraft is the more conservative path. Is BA's historic tendency to be ambitious or conservative? The answer to that question helps us polish the crystal ball.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !

But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-25 22:31:03 and read 14242 times.

Quoting Mutu (Reply 118):
I think you should READ other peoples posts carefuly before jumping down their throats. The point is entirely relevent to the thread. But of course I dont possess god like powers like you so I will dutifully leave this debate to you. Two fingers at you.

Wow. I responded positively to your post, and you consider that jumping down your throat? My comment about "wandering off topic" was referring to my own post, not wanting to derail this thread...

Consider switching to decaf, Mutu. sarcastic 

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Jtdieffen
Posted 2007-09-25 22:37:29 and read 14211 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 125):
But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Exactly. A 3/4 full A380 will not be as "green" as a fully loaded 747 (most likely), even if it is technical more efficient. There are many real world factors that will make an aircraft less green than it appears on paper. So it's hard to boil down to absolutes in terms of environmental impact.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-25 22:39:43 and read 14197 times.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs. It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class. Now BA 747-400´s currently carry 291 passengers in 4 class configuration. You do the math.

I remember doing some research on 747-8 seatcounts. The outcomes were no good, it would be deleted it immediately these days  Wink http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2610589

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-25 22:39:48 and read 14197 times.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 116):
Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Um, from what I gather, Boeing is actually going to try to deliver far more than 60 frames in the first two years of delivery, so I don't see what is so unrealistic about it...

Scorpio

I am somewhat concerned that you quoted incompletely and out of context my statement and argued consequently:

I wrote:

Quote:
"Leahy has stated that they want to achieve 13/month after producing if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do

and if it was still not clear that as "unrealistic" I did refer to the 13/month and not to the 60 in 2 years, I had added on the end of the post:

Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
again, 13/month AVERAGE (!) in the 3rd year seems really unbelievable.

And yes, the production planned by Boeing in the firsts 2 years is about 100 (if I remember well), meaning 1.67 frames per month more thanAirbus, but this does neither seem unrealistic

I would appreciate your comments.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scorpio
Posted 2007-09-25 22:49:01 and read 14142 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 129):
I would appreciate your comments.

Still doesn't change much about the whole thing. Isn't Boeing considering going to 14, or even 16, 787s per month? Still more than Airbus' 13, so again, I fail to see what is so unrealistic...

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-25 22:53:50 and read 14114 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs. It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class. Now BA 747-400´s currently carry 291 passengers in 4 class configuration. You do the math.

Enough man. Enough. There are carriers with high 300s pax in 744s in three class, claimed to hold 417. And there are carriers with plans for 3 class A380s in the 460-480 range, despite claiming to hold 555. Here's some "math" for you.

Even SQ uses the 744 more efficiently than the A380 in terms of seats, with 375 out of 417 in the 744, but only 471 out of 555 on the A380, despite having 399 Y seats! This 555 seat figure is all obviously "magic" on Airbus's part...  Yeah sure

Sure, SQ uses bigger J seats on the A380, but why should we pay attention? Your way of doing math is to totally ignore differences in product and premium count, so anyone can play that game, right?

And EK even puts 374 in 3 class on some 773s, MORE than Boeing claims. So by your logic, Boeing's been underselling the 773...  Yeah sure

It's all about the numbers you use and the type of seats and the amount of premium product, you know that, you continue to post this GARBAGE (choosing a low density 4-class 744 as "proof" of magic) and for some unknown reasons, the moderators don't get on your case.

But every time you do it, people have less and less respect for your other points, because they have to wonder where you are getting your information and how skewed is your thought process.

Give it up. It doesn't help your case.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2007-09-25 22:54:55 and read 14102 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class

I can see that. That's taking into consideration a large Y cabin. It's up to the airlines to decide how they want to lay out their aircraft. If you put 100 business seats on the main deck, of course the seating arrangements will differ. The BA 291-seat 744 is not a typical 744 arrangement....about 40-60 seats lower, actually.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2007-09-26 00:34:05 and read 13952 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 72):
Taxiways and runways have to be widened. Oversized baggage carousels have to be in place, while A380-ready gates with dual airbridges have to be built.

I give up! A second time! Read the manual, or as we say in IT - RTFM!

OK Panam_DC10?  sarcastic 

Gemuser

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-26 00:48:48 and read 13903 times.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 130):
Still doesn't change much about the whole thing. Isn't Boeing considering going to 14, or even 16, 787s per month? Still more than Airbus' 13, so again, I fail to see what is so unrealistic...

Again, referring to the last sentence of my post 112. 13, 16 or 20 per month are not unrealistic, what is clearly so is to pretend an AVERAGE of 13 in the 3rd year!

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 132):
I can see that. That's taking into consideration a large Y cabin. It's up to the airlines to decide how they want to lay out their aircraft. If you put 100 business seats on the main deck, of course the seating arrangements will differ. The BA 291-seat 744 is not a typical 744 arrangement....about 40-60 seats lower, actually.

As I can see, the posters in the past had more or less agreed that an equivalent configured B748i for 407 pax correspond to a 525 pax A380, or a 385 pax B748i to a 494 pax A380.. WHY WE DO NOT FREEZE this relation 77% for discussion sake?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs

There will be no more seat magic if we freeze the pax relation as proposed above.
Technical oriented persons at the Forum discuss a lot regarding engine, volumetric, structural and whatsoever efficiencies, but these, from airline perspective, are irrelevant. The main issues are the CASM and the fuel burn at the average mission corresponding to this airline

And, to be competitive, the larger aircraft must have a significantly lower CASM and fuel burn per seat, as the smaller plane will sport better figures per pax at low load factors and more flexibility to adapt the flights to the available pax variation during the year, so again improving the load factor.

Which is the case comparing the A380 with the B748i and also with the B787 (and A350 in the future)?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Addrenaline
Posted 2007-09-26 01:37:52 and read 13816 times.

My money's on Airbus....
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,
a single flight is more environmently friendly than two, one take off is better than two, noise and air polution wise. On the routes that the A380 would work are always full so I cannot see half empty aircraft being an issue, they could always downsize to a B777 should that happen.
Plus slots out of LHR are reduced giving two fold growth opportunities.
Passenger, particularly in the premium cabins will have new improved standards of comfort..

B787 maybe a reasonable B767 replacement for some, but is rather small for BA's growth plans so I think the A359 / A350-10 will be a better fit for the next 10 - 25yrs

Personally, I don't think the B747-8I will be chosen..

My Guess

20 - 25 x A380-800
25 x A350-9
25 x A350-10



Add

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-26 02:10:51 and read 13752 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 135):
My money's on Airbus....
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,
a single flight is more environmently friendly than two, one take off is better than two, noise and air polution wise. On the routes that the A380 would work are always full so I cannot see half empty aircraft being an issue, they could always downsize to a B777 should that happen.
Plus slots out of LHR are reduced giving two fold growth opportunities.
Passenger, particularly in the premium cabins will have new improved standards of comfort..

B787 maybe a reasonable B767 replacement for some, but is rather small for BA's growth plans so I think the A359 / A350-10 will be a better fit for the next 10 - 25yrs

Personally, I don't think the B747-8I will be chosen..

You certainly could be correct about BA buying the A380, and it would be a great choice. But if they care for the environment I would think they would split the order so they would more likely be able to have the right size plane. The environmental argument in favor of the A380 over the B748 is pretty weak though, both planes will be quieter and less polluting than the older planes they replace.

AS far as future growth of BA, someone here just posted that BA carried 38.2 million passengers in 1996 and than carried 33.1 million passengers 10 years later. Doesn't sound like too much growth. I suspect this trend could continue as the last flight I took from SFO-LHR had a lot of people on it that had a final destination of India. I think Air India and maybe Kingfisher will be starting flights direct to India from SFO. If BA goes with the A380, I certainly hope they increase the space for the "Y" passengers, but I get the unique feeling that BA is going after premium passengers and is not interested in people like me that are waiting for Aer Lingus to Merge with Ryan Air so I can travel to Europe for 2 Euro's. I am not going to make a prediction on which way it will go but I will rule out environmental concerns having any effect on the choice. This choice will be based purely on profit (which plane will earn BA more money) and if they decide its a tie, than the A380 should win because its the home-team plane and something like 1000 people in the UK are involved in producing the wings for the A380. I'll get flamed for that last comment but I firmly believe that the tie breaker will be and should be the plane that helps the UK economy the most, and that is the A380.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2007-09-26 08:48:27 and read 13465 times.

My sincere apologies for being off-topic

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 133):
I give up! A second time! Read the manual, or as we say in IT - RTFM!

You can not dispute the fact that money is being spent in order for airports to receive the A380 on a regular, commercial basis. That is basically the only point I wanted to make. AUD100 million has been spent at SYD to widen runways and taxiways, strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel and upgrade facilities in the international terminal.

Southern Cross Airports Corporation Holdings Limited: Annual Report 2005

I have never been anything than respectful to you in the past – if you don’t believe me, please look up your IM history. Your thinly failed personal attack, with profane language, therefore thus does not amuse me, in whichever way you try to disguise it. There is no need for it and I truly expected more from you.

Keep well Gemuser


SA7700

[Edited 2007-09-26 09:08:36]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Theginge
Posted 2007-09-26 10:17:11 and read 13321 times.

Some routes like JFK are not full all the time, so an A380 on this would be a waste of money. I can't see BA reducing JFK frequencys just because of the A380, thats one of the main selling points of the route, where the businessman has the flexibility of turning up at the airport early or late and getting on a flight as there is one every hour or so.

It is a very fine balancing act between having an A380 when the flight is full a lot of the time but then running it half full when not. Maybe BA will decide that over the course of the year it is better to have a smaller aircraft on the route and being full more of the time.

On the Australian routes that are always very full I would think that an A380 on it would only really increase the amount of Y seats available which would not be very good as the market is saturdated with the middle / far east carriers operating. For BA that wants to concentrate primarily on the premium traffic having a smaller plane would be better as they wouldn't have to drop fares in Y too much just to fill the plane.

No one apart from the CEO, chairman and a few others really know what BA will chose so hopefully the announcement comes soon.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: ANstar
Posted 2007-09-26 10:17:54 and read 13321 times.

787 is a better 767 replacement then the A350..[/quote]

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 122):
Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I think that the 787 would be to small for BA.

787 too small to replace a 767?

Do they need a direct 767 replacement though? The rumours suggest that LGW will get 767's. Now as those routes are already 777's and the 777's are moving to LHR because they need capacity I would say the A350 is in with just as good a chance

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Scouseflyer
Posted 2007-09-26 10:24:22 and read 13296 times.

Quoting Theginge (Reply 138):
No one apart from the CEO, chairman and a few others really know what BA will chose so hopefully the announcement comes soon.

I hope so too, this has gone on for such a long time, I wonder if A net will burst if the announcement is that the orders is to be further delayed.....

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-26 10:25:19 and read 13297 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 135):
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,

It can only replace two 767s, otherwise it would be a CUT in capacity. But they could replace 3 flights with 2 A380s. Like 2 744s and a 772 with 2 A380s. But will there be enough premium seats?

My take on the A380 and BA is that they will only use it on routes where they would replace a 744 one for one and increase capacity. It would not be used to decrease frequency in any way. Thus it has a limited place in the fleet, as since they have 50 744s, they will not want to replace all 50.

This is why Walsh has said he sees a place for 15 A380s. He was pretty specific about that. So don't expect 20-25, at least not in this decade...

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Parapente
Posted 2007-09-26 10:26:41 and read 13290 times.

one thought. If BA go 748 and 787 as they well might - where does that leave Rolls. It would make no sense to choose 2 types of identical engine when you could have one.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-26 10:48:32 and read 13233 times.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 131):
choosing a low density 4-class 744 as "proof" of magic



Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

We are talking BA 747 configuration here.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 134):
WHY WE DO NOT FREEZE this relation 77% for discussion sake?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs

There will be no more seat magic if we freeze the pax relation as proposed above.

Caminito you are absolutely right. I can see you are new on a.net but I tried this for many years. However if one doesn't like the outcomes..

Our new a.net spreadsheetwonderboy WingedMigrator last week-end created a graph taking into account available space, realistic load and range, which is a far better approach to compare payload range of various aircraft types:

http://www.airliners.net/uf/536902901/1190697341E25Fyn.jpg
Range at 100 kg of payload per m2 of cabin area, at brochure OEW

As WingedMigrator himself states, this approach has its flaws too. Fuel consumption isn't included.. he talks about a third axis..

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 136):
AS far as future growth of BA, someone here just posted that BA carried 38.2 million passengers in 1996 and than carried 33.1 million passengers 10 years later.

In that period they introduced more 40 777's... Maybe it is because they outsourced many short haul / feeder operations to francises? They have a relatively small NB fleet..

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: WINGS
Posted 2007-09-26 11:35:54 and read 13135 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):

I remember doing some research on 747-8 seatcounts. The outcomes were no good, it would be deleted it immediately these days Wink http://www.airliners.net/discussions...10589

I just went back and read through that thread. The most interesting things that I noticed was the number of members that have abandoned Airliners.net.  Sad

Regards,
Wings

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2007-09-26 14:25:33 and read 12882 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
You can not dispute the fact that money is being spent in order for airports to receive the A380 on a regular, commercial basis

Never did! Disputed that the money HAD to spent to have the A380 operate at an airport. That is simply NOT true.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
AUD100 million has been spent at SYD to widen runways and taxiways, strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel and upgrade facilities in the international terminal.Southern Cross Airports Corporation Holdings Limited: Annual Report 2005

Where in your ref does it say that? The only ref I could find is on P16 where the statement:
"has already let several key construction projects to prepare the airport for A380 operations. Work has started on the construction of the first of six aerobridge upgrades at T1 to provide new three door aerobridges for the aircraft -- including direct aerobridge access to the upper deck."

No mention of "widening the runways", which has not happened, no mention of taxiways, which may have happened to fix known trouble spots, no "strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel", in fact this work was to widen the road thru the tunnel, which required some strengthening work as a result.

The Terminal 1 works are not required. SCAL decided to make a commerical investment to improve pax flow. They could have gotten by without the double level aero bridges and if there's only six of them, many A380s are going to have to use standard gates or remote stands as QF along will have 20 A380s based there.

The only work at SYD AFAIK that could be said to be required solely to accommodate the A380 is the sealing of the runway edges to reduce the likely hood of FOD damage.

I repeat none of this work is legally REQUIRED for the A380 to operate into an airport, convenient maybe, required not!

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
Your thinly failed personal attack, with profane language,

It was not a personal attack on anybody, if you took it as such, well ... you were not the only one my comment was aimed at.
As for "profane" language, I do not recognise anything as "profane", a concept I find to have no connection with reality.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2007-09-26 16:32:41 and read 12599 times.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 145):
I repeat none of this work is legally REQUIRED for the A380 to operate into an airport, convenient maybe, required not!

The major airfield works included widening of pavement shoulders to runways and taxiways, airfield services protection, and re-alignment of Taxiway A.

A significant issue was the strengthening of the General Holmes Drive Tunnel, under the main runway, to cope with the additional weight of the A380. This involved inserting 246 precast concrete planks into the runway and taxiway. The concrete planks were between 6 – 12 metres long and up to 14 tonnes in weight.


http://www.syd.com.au/SACL/Corporate...edia+Centre/Multimedia/default.htm

Would Sydney Airport have at least gone ahead with the strenghtening of the tunnel, if not for the A380? Probably not. The last time I checked strenghtening did not = convenience. It was to ensure safety.

I am done on this thread, no worries.


SA7700

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-26 16:39:45 and read 12571 times.

[quote=Keesje,reply=143]As WingedMigrator himself states, this approach has its flaws too. Fuel consumption isn't included.. he talks about a third axis[/quote

As you mention WingedMigrator, browsing through his posts shows he has indeed indicated some roughly estimated figures for the fuel consumption, for both max. payload as well as SIMILAR SEAT DENSITY!
As you can see below, the comparative performance shows an advantage for the B748i by payload and a smaller advantage for the A380 per seat.
This seems to favor the B748i, as the smaller aircraft would allow a better adjustment of the low season flight frequency and so achieve a better load factor

"'''''Here are some numbers for max payload @ 5500 nm (slice and dice into pax and cargo as you please).

744 @max payload: 24.8 L/tonne/100km
A388 @max payload: 22.5 L/tonne/100km
748I @max payload: 20.4 L/tonne/100km
""""

and

""""All at 6000 nm and 0.95 seats/m2 (similar to the A388 spec)

A388 @525 pax: 3.3 L/pax/100km
748I @405 pax: 3.4 L/pax/100km
744 @355 pax: 4.2 L/pax/100km """"

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-09-26 17:05:48 and read 12505 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 147):
This seems to favor the B748i, as the smaller aircraft would allow a better adjustment of the low season flight frequency and so achieve a better load factor

Maybe of you look at last year, in that case the 773ER would be a better choice. But BA are buying aircraft to last the next 15-20 years of growth. Airline passenger growth from what I have seen in airline reports, engine manufacture reports, and aircraft manufacture reports indicate a doubling in demand over that period.

The slots (landing, terminal gates, enroute) slots at LHR will not double over that period.

If you had a pregnant wife with twins, would you buy a two bedroom flat or a 3 bedroom house ? which would be better 15 years down the track ? Do you look at today or next year or 10-15 years to the future ?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-26 17:44:21 and read 12399 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 148):
If you had a pregnant wife with twins, would you buy a two bedroom flat or a 3 bedroom house ? which would be better 15 years down the track ? Do you look at today or next year or 10-15 years to the future ?

The growth in Air Travel will be mostly China and India. All of the population projections I have seen have shown Europe's population decreasing. Since BA is a European airline, I'm not sure we can extrapolate that their PAX loads will increase in the next decade. So if you are about to retire and the kids moving out of the house, would you buy a bigger house? These are the population estimates for Europe I got from the always unreliable wikipedia.


(in Thousands)
2000 728,463
2005 728,389
2010 725,786
2020 714,959
2030 698,140

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Mutu
Posted 2007-09-26 17:45:23 and read 12399 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 125):
But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Thats sort of the point i was trying to make when I took SUCH exception to your dismissal of it. The point is not an A v B decision or indeed a 787 v 748 decision. It is an assessment of how far governments MIGHT go over the next 20 years to dissuade flying. Coming from europe perhaps I am more sensitive to this but at the moment there are some political parties even talking about "banning" short commercial flights i.e LHR/MAN as there are real alternatives which are cleaner (and more expensive of course). The point is passenger demand can be derailed if punitive taxes are applied to flying in say 10 years time. Theoretical demand growth of 5% could very quickly be a 10% decline in europe under a certain level of fiscal interference.

This should make all airlines sensitive to the issue albeit the answer is a complete unknow. BUt if you take all my factors together then it is better to have full planes (and be highly profitable as an operatibg profit %) and turn some passengers away to other "bigger" carriers, than have 50% loads and losses. In this regard BA's behaviour has been conservative in the past, and I would argue post 9/11,( as a (non USA) airline with a substantial dependency on TATL traffic where had it not been for its historic profitability and cash reserves it could very easily have been wiped out) will be more conservative still.

As a shareholder I dont want to own the worlds biggest carrier, I want to own a piece of one of the most successful and success can only come from profits in my book

KIND regards

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-26 17:46:58 and read 12395 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 148):
Maybe of you look at last year, in that case the 773ER would be a better choice. But BA are buying aircraft to last the next 15-20 years of growth. Airline passenger growth from what I have seen in airline reports, engine manufacture reports, and aircraft manufacture reports indicate a doubling in demand over that period.

Your argument has merits, assuming that the VLA market will grow strongly in the future and more important, if BA will join statistically this growths.

But as I argue in my Replies 103 and 108, supported also by other A-netters, the latter seems not probable.

And by the way: I doubt very much that both the 2000 technology A380 and the 2004 technology B748i (even if it uses some older elements), neither obviously the B773ER, will be able to subsist 20 or 25 years, especially if as foreseeable, oil will become an even more scarce commodity.
The large sub models of the A350 and B787, coming very soon, with vastly economic advantages, already signal this, larger aircrafts as probably the Y3 and possibly an improved A380 (which would not help the today's A380 customers!) will follow.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-09-26 19:44:00 and read 12201 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 151):

Your argument has merits, assuming that the VLA market will grow strongly in the future and more important, if BA will join statistically this growths.

BA has been increasing the capacity on each aircraft by about 3% a year (take a bit of working out to get the growth numbers from the annual report http://thomson.mobular.net/thomson/7/2433/2666/# ) and in the same time has been expanding the long haul market with larger capacity aircraft, this is evidenced by the increase in RPKs over the report period, and the associated reduction in the number of flights, aircraft, and unduplicated route kilometres over the reported period (2003-2007).

Quoting Caminito (Reply 151):

But as I argue in my Replies 103 and 108, supported also by other A-netters, the latter seems not probable.

BA is not immune for other markets, its long haul fleet in particular is effected by changes elsewhere. Rolls Royce for example in their latest market outlook suggests that the Europe will go from 1,218 billion RPKs in 2006 to 2,755 billion in 2026, representing an average annual growth of 4.2% (page 22 http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer...look/downloads/outlook06-09-07.pdf ).

The traffic demand between Europe and North America is predicted to have an average annual growth rate of 3.8%, Europe to Latin America of 4.6%, Europe to Africa and Middle East of 5.4%, and Europe to Asia Pacific of 6% (page 23).

In the same report they see the demand for one 400+ seat passenger aircraft a week to be delivered between 2006 and 2026. (page 25, 1044 deliveries over 20 years), you could add a few more very large freighters onto that.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 151):
And by the way: I doubt very much that both the 2000 technology A380 and the 2004 technology B748i (even if it uses some older elements), neither obviously the B773ER, will be able to subsist 20 or 25 years, especially if as foreseeable, oil will become an even more scarce commodity.

The very aircraft BA is looking at replacing now according to the BA annual report are 18 years old, "The Company also launched tenders to manufacturers for longhaul fleet growth and replacement beyond 2010. These tenders included the potential replacement of the longhaul Boeing 767 fleet and the older Boeing 747-400s. The Company’s oldest Boeing 747-400s and Boeing 767s are now 18 years old. Candidate replacement aircraft include Airbus A330s, A350s and A380s and Boeing 777s, 787s and 747-8s. The need to match aircraft capacity and costs to the Company’s network and passenger demands remains paramount and environmental considerations will also be a major factor in selecting the new aircraft type. A decision is expected in 2007."

Also bear in mind, it is expected that the Trent XWB engine technology will also end up on the A380. The A380 and 748i both have lower fuel burns per seat than the 787. EK say the A380 has between 15-22% lower fuel burn per seat over the 773ER for their configurations.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Addrenaline
Posted 2007-09-26 20:03:28 and read 12139 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 148):

Zeke you are spot on in your analysis, too many people on this forum are so tunnel visioned !

For those of you who keep tabs on airlines profitability you would have seen that BA have been very profitable, much more so than most others, and that didn't happen by flying half empty aeroplanes now did it !

Zeke is absolutely correct, BA is thinking ahead and future growth is important to the board and its shareholders.

Add

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-26 20:06:49 and read 12124 times.

Quoting Theginge (Reply 138):
can't see BA reducing JFK frequencys just because of the A380, thats one of the main selling points of the route, where the businessman has the flexibility of turning up at the airport early or late and getting on a flight as there is one every hour or so.

No airline is likely to reduce NYC frequencies with slot restrictions on the horizon. BA knows very well how that game is played; they are more likely to increase than to reduce.
.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-26 20:11:28 and read 12107 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 152):
BA has been increasing the capacity on each aircraft by about 3%

This is the past, not the future. See reply 103. As said there, this was before the super-players as EK, SQ,QR etc. will come in

Quoting Zeke (Reply 152):
The very aircraft BA is looking at replacing now according to the BA annual report are 18 years old

If you do not consider the A380, which many do not see as adequate as B744 substitution, there was no suitable aircraft available to substitute the B744. Also, before the Oil price explosion in 2004-05, there was no urgent reason to substitute these aircraft. This has now changed completely. As I said in Reply152, it can be expected that very soon there will be "new" planes far less fuel burning as the then not more state of the art A380 and B748i. Here too, you cannot extrapolate the past.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 152):
Also bear in mind, it is expected that the Trent XWB engine technology will also end up on the A380

I already mentioned that a upgraded A380 (if Airbus financing entities really would be willing to invest more billions in this project!) could be one of the captioned "new" planes. But I also added that this would constitute no benefit to anyone buying now the existing B350-800

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-26 20:29:43 and read 12051 times.

Quoting Mutu (Reply 150):
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 125):
But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Thats sort of the point i was trying to make when I took SUCH exception to your dismissal of it.

My #125 was not in response to your post. Nothing I have posted in any way dismissed your comments. I responded in the affirmative to a rhetorical question you posed. As to why that irks you, only you can explain.

Quoting Mutu (Reply 150):
This should make all airlines sensitive to the issue albeit the answer is a complete unknow. BUt if you take all my factors together then it is better to have full planes (and be highly profitable as an operatibg profit %) and turn some passengers away to other "bigger" carriers, than have 50% loads and losses. In this regard BA's behaviour has been conservative in the past, and I would argue post 9/11,( as a (non USA) airline with a substantial dependency on TATL traffic where had it not been for its historic profitability and cash reserves it could very easily have been wiped out) will be more conservative still.

This raises an interesting question: might BA not buy any VLA's at all? scratchchin 

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-26 21:20:27 and read 11906 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 156):
But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Advancing my opinion that the BA statement of submitting the decision to environments criteria is PR (as it was Virgin's!), and considering the fact that the overall efficiency/pax of both aircrafts are very similar, probably the B748i has a theoretical advantage there, as its GE engine is a much later development as the A380's and therefore "cleaner"

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 156):
This raises an interesting question: might BA not buy any VLA's at all?

Yes, I also entertained this thought. Fact seems to be some of this is already happening, I think I reay that BA has substituted the London-Singapore (?) B744 by a B772ER (if true, so much regarding Pax increase on this route)

Therefore, if BA purchases now some B773ER to bridge the period until B787-10X or A350-1000 availability. they could do without any Pax-VLA.
Later, if it is big enough, they could address the Y3.

And in such case, it would also make very little sense to purchase immediately either the B787-10X or the A350-1000, the first existing only as a nearly flight ready but much smaller and probably quite different basic model, the second only as a still not completed design. I would say, the delivery date would be the same if they issue such order until end 2008, even mid 2009.

A crazy idea of my own: to order a few B748i with option to convert to B748F if later a better solution is available!!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-09-26 21:33:21 and read 11860 times.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 153):
For those of you who keep tabs on airlines profitability you would have seen that BA have been very profitable, much more so than most others, and that didn't happen by flying half empty aeroplanes now did it!

So replacing their entire fleet with planes with significantly (25-50%) more capacity is likely not a decision BA is going to take, lest they find themselves flying half-empty airplanes.  Smile

That is why many of us feel BA will perform a more balanced fleet update, pulling product from both manufacturers, to ensure that as traffic expands, sufficient seats are there to meet that demand as opposed to too many seats, which requires fares to come down and lowers revenues and profits.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-09-26 21:43:28 and read 11814 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 155):
This is the past, not the future.

Did you see the quote from the BA annual report that I posted....

Quoting Zeke (Reply 152):
longhaul fleet growth and replacement beyond 2010



Quoting Stitch (Reply 158):

So replacing their entire fleet with planes with significantly (25-50%) more capacity is likely not a decision BA is going to take, lest they find themselves flying half-empty airplanes

The phase out of 744 to 380s would not occur overnight, I would think the 57 aircraft would be phased out over a decade, the average age is about 13 years, they are only looking replacing the older ones at the 18 year mark.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2007-09-26 21:53:10 and read 11784 times.

Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
"Haas also declared that for the B-787 the bookings list is closed until 2013, thus a carrier that wanted to place an order could do so only as of 2014."

Even if that is officially the case, I thought that Boeing would likely (secretly) hold back some slots so that if a huge order was forthcoming (like 50 or 100 for an American legacy), that they would be able to start delivery prior to 2014. In other words, the lack of timely, available slots would not be a contract breaker for a huge order.

Is the 350 sufficiently differentiated from the 787 that Boeing does not have too worry about losing orders to AIrbus due to unavailability of slots in the short term?

But, if so, does a lack of 787 slots in the shorter term cause some airlines to go with the likes of the 330, because they need the capacity now??

Is it advantageous to Boeing, to some extent, to have an active production line over a longer time period, than try to grant every request for an order in the shorter term?

FInally, does anyone here believe that the line REALLY is booked up until 2014? I was under the impression that a second line was not under active consideration because the outsourced nature of this A/C's construction meant that the line could eventually be ramped up to unprecedented levels of output, something one frame every three days (Is that what I read?)

Or... does money talk... ?  Wink

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-26 21:53:13 and read 11785 times.

I love the 747, have spend years working on it and made dozens of flights in economy business and chatting in the galleys / cockpits. From a BA standpoint I think however the 747-8i has "uncertain future" written all over it. Apart from that, adding 20 -8i to the remaining 33 747-400s can't be considered a bold move in a changing market. Asia traffic is growing rapidly & LHR will be soon be stuffed with bright shining & comfortable A380's, from not so unpopular airlines. IMO BA will do what the market / environment requires what their customers deserve.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2007-09-26 22:10:18 and read 11719 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 161):
adding 20 -8i to the remaining 33 747-400s can't be considered a bold move in a changing market.

Well, BA has many routes that it may consider do not have the demand to warrant a 380.

As a smaller A/C by a considerable margin, the 747-8 may prove profitable on routes where the 380 would not be, on the basis of less demand.

Also, as a smaller A/C, the -8 would be more flexible in terms of it's deployment than the 380, and can be moved to other routes more easily in the off season (such as to southern destinations during the winter). Flexibility is often a selling point for a slightly smaller A/C competing on similar routes with a larger one.

BA is a huge operation, and they may find, as LH is betting on, that they want to operate both types side by side. Or, they may go with the flexibility and economics of the smaller A/C altogether, because along with all the selling-points of the 380, comes the obligation/liability to fill all those seats. That is not a given on all long range routes.

As to comfort, I would opine that that is more contingent on how an airline chooses to configure it's interior, and is not dictated or assured merely by A/C type.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Keesje
Posted 2007-09-26 23:12:39 and read 11616 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 162):
Well, BA has many routes that it may consider do not have the demand to warrant a 380.

As a smaller A/C by a considerable margin, the 747-8 may prove profitable on routes where the 380 would not be, on the basis of less demand.

If BA orders the 380 now they have a mixed fleet for many yrs to come. New A380s + relatively young 747-400´s. If they want to replace the complete 747 fleet they can have a look again at what´s the best fleet solution.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 162):
As to comfort, I would opine that that is more contingent on how an airline chooses to configure it's interior, and is not dictated or assured merely by A/C type.

I haven´t seen any airline moving to 9 abreast in economy to match A380 comfort. Noise on 747 is high, low on A380.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2007-09-27 00:04:35 and read 11501 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 163):
If BA orders the 380 now they have a mixed fleet for many yrs to come. New A380s + relatively young 747-400´s. If they want to replace the complete 747 fleet they can have a look again at what´s the best fleet solution.

I see your point.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 163):
I haven´t seen any airline moving to 9 abreast in economy to match A380 comfort. Noise on 747 is high, low on A380.

True. But, and unfortunately for the likes of me, I doubt what transpires in the economy cabin has much to do with the most important reasons airlines pick A/C, rather that would be their high yield passengers (and cabins).

In a way - the wider coach cabin in the 380 with the same number of seats across would suggest to me lower yield (fewer seats per square foot in coach) than for the 747-8. So the 380 cabin might restrict airlines into competing with respect to their coach product based on "service and comfort," but they would be at a disadvantage if they wanted to compete based on coach ticket "price." This in a world where we are witnessing many coach passengers putting up with considerable discomfort on many cramped LLC carriers in order to save a buck. In coach, therefore, the 380's wider cabin may be an economic liability. (I don't know if any operator is considering or can consider 11 across in coach on the 380?)

Of course we will need to see how the economic claims of both Boeing and Airbus pan out. As I recall the -8 and 380 both claim CASM superiority.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-27 00:09:56 and read 11494 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 159):
Did you see the quote from the BA annual report that I posted....

You are referring to the RR document, where they make as many other a general markets forecast, which obviously is all important for an Engine maker. Logically, nothing is said regarding the future pax of BA, less so at the A380 size VLA market, which as explained in Replies 103 and 108, will diminish caused by the really enormous NEW competition there.

I do not need to warn again against making long term forecasts basing on past and immediate-future statistics, as well as on long-term, but averaged forecasts. This constitutes a very dangerous temptation which has lead to bankruptcy many enterprises. Obviously a company l likeAirbus knows better, therefore any such forecast circulated is not more than PR addressed to the general public. It goes without saying that no serious airline as BA takes such seriously.

By the way: please look at my Reply157, where I entertain, as a long shot, the alternative that BA could not order the A380 nor the B748i, but the B777-300ER

But.... None of us has the complete information needed for a real assessment, so BA will do what they consider best!.

[Edited 2007-09-27 00:13:22]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-09-27 00:39:57 and read 11411 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 161):
Asia traffic is growing rapidly & LHR will be soon be stuffed with bright shining & comfortable A380's, from not so unpopular airlines. IMO BA will do what the market / environment requires what their customers deserve.

Exactly. And all BA has to do now is pay the deposits. Airbus would be so happy to get 15 A380 orders from BA with 10 options, they probably cut them slack on the deposits.

When would BA take delivery of the A380? Probably about 2012? By then all the infrastructure details will be "all sorted" and they can find out which of the other airlines interior configuration works best, and copy it. How can they lose?

And whats with all the people who are so worried BA will suddenly have so much overcapacity wioth these A380s they'll go bankrupt ? BA is an airline that flys about 50+ 747s.

Does that sound like an airline worried about not being able to fill seats?

Thats why BA should go with A380, and use the A380 purchase to leverage a nasty deal on A350's. Just "Project XM" their 767s like AC until they get the A350s.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: TeamAmerica
Posted 2007-09-27 01:09:11 and read 11342 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 163):
Noise on 747 is high, low on A380.

Do we know what the interior noise level will be on the B748i? IIRC Boeing is using a new type of insulation.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: VV701
Posted 2007-09-27 01:27:17 and read 11304 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 152):
BA has been increasing the capacity on each aircraft by about 3% a year (take a bit of working out to get the growth numbers from the annual report http://thomson.mobular.net/thomson/7/2433/2666/# ) and in the same time has been expanding the long haul market with larger capacity aircraft, this is evidenced by the increase in RPKs over the report period, and the associated reduction in the number of flights, aircraft, and unduplicated route kilometres over the reported period (2003-2007).

In the last ten years far from "increasing the capacity on each aircraft" in BA's LONG HAUL fleet - and it is its long haul fleet we are discussing here - they have been reducing it.

The first step in its reduction programme was the introduction of its first lie-flat "J" class seats which had a much greater pitch than the seats they replaced. So the number of "M" class seats was reduced.

The next step was to significantly reduce the seating in their three very high density 772s operating out of LGW to the Caribbean initially by AML on behalf of BA. Subsequently a fourth aircraft (G-VIIT) was added to this small high density fleet which is the only long haul aircraft on which BA has added seats so far this century.

BA then increased their long haul fleet by converting 763s from their short haul configuration to their long haul configuration. This change was from a single class to a three-class cabin with a corresponding reduction in passenger seats with the addition of premium class seats. So this move certainly increased the number of long haul seats on sale but actually reduced the total number in the combined fleets.

The final change is currently happening at CWL. BA Engineering is around half way through converting its "Lo J" 744s with 38 J-Class seats to "Mid J" with 52 J-Class seats. These extra 72" pitch seats are being added with a balancing reduction in "M" class 32" pitch seats.

On the other hand the thinner backed economy class seats that were in the BA SHORT HAUL 321s when they were delivered by Airbus have now been retro-fitted to BA's existing 319 and 320 fleets giving an extra row of six seats in each of these 65 aircraft. Partly balancing this has been the removal of one row of seats in the 321s to increase seat pitch in the rear of their cabins. Further BA have started to retire their original 320 fleet as new 321s are delivered further increasing the seats available in their short haul fleet.

The process of seat reduction in the BA LONG HAUL fleet will be reversed for the first time since 9/11 with the delivery of the four 772s ordered last February. However over the last two to three years BA has been looking to increase the utilisation of all of its fleet. However this is quite difficult with the long haul fleet due to the night curfew at LHR. (Note that while the last new aircraft added to BA's long haul fleet was a 772 in October 2001, in the four weeks following the 9/11 tragedy BA retired a large number of 742s prematurely.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 159):
The phase out of 744 to 380s would not occur overnight, I would think the 57 aircraft would be phased out over a decade, the average age is about 13 years, they are only looking replacing the older ones at the 18 year mark.

Probably longer than a decade. In the Annual Report you posted you will find a statement to the effect that it is BA policy to operate aircraft for between 15 and 25 years. (This is an important statement in view of the high amortization costs on a large fleet of aircraft.) The statement goes no further than that. However it is very clear that while most of BA's long haul fleet makes two rotations a day, six rotations, often more, is usual for its short haul fleet. So one can expect that the short haul aircraft will be retired towards the shorter end of the quoted 15 to 25 years while the long haul fleet will be retired nearer the longer end.

This theory is confirmed by past practice. So, for example, BA's 320-111 aircraft were delivered between November 1987 and March 1989 and are currently being retired 18 to 20 years later. Similarly BA retired its three oldest 744s 28 years and 8 months, 28 years and 4 months and 28 years and 6 months after delivery from Boeing. Their newest 744 was delivered in April 1999. So conservatively it has at least another 15 years of BA service left in it. But if it is kept in service as long as the 741s it will not leave the BA fleet for another 20 years in 2027! Yet there are those in this thread who think the up-coming order will replace all 57 of BA's 744s. I think not.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-27 01:30:10 and read 11292 times.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 167):
Do we know what the interior noise level will be on the B748i? IIRC Boeing is using a new type of insulation.

Between the quieter engine and improved insulation, it will be quieter than the 744, which is not an overly loud aircraft. But the A380 will be the quietest interior for a commercial jet.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-09-27 03:29:08 and read 11170 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 165):
You are referring to the RR document,

I included the quote from the BA annual report, the paragraph that included "longhaul fleet growth and replacement beyond 2010" came from the BA annual report.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 168):

In the last ten years far from "increasing the capacity on each aircraft" in BA's LONG HAUL fleet - and it is its long haul fleet we are discussing here - they have been reducing it.

Replacing a 767 with a 777, in anyones book is increasing capacity. They have been increasing utilisation, and flying longer stage lengths, which has been increasing the available capacity on the fleet, despite reducing the seat count to improve yields.

I also personally think they will be looking at replacing the 744s where possible before they reach the 20 year mark given some of the targets they have published.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: ER757
Posted 2007-09-27 03:49:47 and read 11125 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 160):
I was under the impression that a second line was not under active consideration because the outsourced nature of this A/C's construction meant that the line could eventually be ramped up to unprecedented levels of output, something one frame every three days (Is that what I read?)

Yes, they were talking about one aircraft evry three days when production is up to full speed. Of course that was before things like the now famous fastener shortage came up. I don't think a 2nd line is anything Boeing is close to commiting to until they can get the 1st line up, running, and producing. And even then, the supply chain, not Boeing themselves, will dictate whether a 2nd line will or even can happen.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-27 07:53:32 and read 10935 times.

All what I will say here I am addressing only because other mention it repeatedly. I state again, as I did earlier, that IMO NONE OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE DECISIVE for a customer decision, sanctimonious airline declarations saying otherwise notwithstanding.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 169):
Between the quieter engine and improved insulation, it will be quieter than the 744, which is not an overly loud aircraft. But the A380 will be the quietest interior for a commercial jet.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 163):
I haven´t seen any airline moving to 9 abreast in economy to match A380 comfort. Noise on 747 is high, low on A380

Where you got the noise data both for the A380 and B748i? Factually, the engines of the B748i (and B787) are much more recent, therefore more state of the art and probably more silent, I do not know about the insulation.

Even if I personally have not heard any complaint regarding the B744, if the noise of the B748i is lower as of the B744, meaning a soothing uniform low tone background sound, any further reduction would be negative, as any sound expert will confirm that a near "tomb silence" enhances the disturbing effect of irregular sound as door closing, cough, child cry, flap extension and similar (which does not mean that a loud cabin is better than a silent one, as Randy clumsily seemed to imply, a sorry performance for an M&S guy)

As for the comfort: This has nothing to do with the aircraft type, only with the airline. With equivalent configurations, an 525 (485) pax A380, 407 (375) pax B748i and 205 (190) pax B787-9 have the same comfort, being higher at deplaning if the aircraft is smaller.

Regarding contamination, as already noted in an earlier post, the fuel burn per pax is very similar for load factors over 80% and better for the smaller aircraft at lower LFs. Because of the same state of the art reasons as mentioned above, the exhaust conditions of the B748i/B787 probably are cleaner.

Again: all this would not help Boeing, as already said on the top of this post!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-27 07:55:50 and read 10934 times.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 170):
I included the quote from the BA annual report, the paragraph that included "longhaul fleet growth and replacement beyond 2010" came from the BA annual report.

Could you indicate the page? Thanks

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Abba
Posted 2007-09-27 07:58:15 and read 10925 times.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 149):
The growth in Air Travel will be mostly China and India. All of the population projections I have seen have shown Europe's population decreasing.

Increase in air travel is not so much a function of population growth, but economic growth on a per capita basis. And in Europe you will no doubt see that air travel grow more than the economy overall.

Abba

[Edited 2007-09-27 07:59:18]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2007-09-27 08:08:46 and read 10905 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 155):
I already mentioned that a upgraded A380 (if Airbus financing entities really would be willing to invest more billions in this project!) could be one of the captioned "new" planes

As most of the "billions" for an upgrade have already been spent, the answer to that would depend on the incremental additional market likely to accrue, as a result of the fairly trivial remaining additional cost required.
(Which is a categoric "yes" IMO)

Quoting Caminito (Reply 157):
probably the B748i has a theoretical advantage there, as its GE engine is a much later development as the A380's and therefore "cleaner"

 rotfl   rotfl 
You jest!
What do you think the T900 and GP7000 are? 1960's turbojets?  Yeah sure
I can assure you that the technological gap between the A380's engines, and the GEnx is nothing more than "incremental" (especially in terms of cleanliness and noise).
Why does this nonsense about the A380's engines still persist?

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 164):
In a way - the wider coach cabin in the 380 with the same number of seats across would suggest to me lower yield (fewer seats per square foot in coach) than for the 747-8. So the 380 cabin might restrict airlines into competing with respect to their coach product based on "service and comfort,"

I can't quite get my head around that, as, despite the increased space per seat, the A380 still enjoys at least CASM parity with the 748i, and in all probability (other costs beside fuel considered), a reasonable CASM advantage.
More comfortable cabin for less cost per seat?
That's a win-win, isn't it?  Smile

It is beyond doubt that A380 customer airlines are competing now on "service and comfort", and enjoying cost advantages whilst doing so.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 71):
The WhaleJet can (or will soon be able to) enjoy normal operations (e.g. taxiing without halting all other taxi ops) at about 25 airports worldwide. The 747-400 has in fact operated from about 210 airports worldwide

I wonder how many airports will be "A380 ready" by, say 2015? It will surely be substantially more than the "25 or so" you quote (from somewhere)
But your wording also begs the question "how many airports worldwide see regular sheduled 747 movements today?
(As an afterthough, how many airports were "747 ready" when the 747 went into service?)
I struggle to see this as a long-term issue for the A380
But that's just me

Regards

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-27 08:26:01 and read 10877 times.

Threads over. Let's lock it. BA has spoken!!

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: SJCRRPAX
Posted 2007-09-27 08:26:11 and read 10877 times.

Quoting Abba (Reply 174):
Increase in air travel is not so much a function of population growth, but economic growth on a per capita basis. And in Europe you will no doubt see that air travel grow more than the economy overall.

I think Europe is already a fairly wealthy part of the world, and with fuel costs rising, and emissions trading, and a stagnant population, I cannot see European air travel increasing 5% a year, air travel is probably right now about as cheap as it's ever going to get. Probably doesn't matter much anyways as far as the 748i / a380 decision goes because nobody seems to be putting many seats into the A380 anyway. That's I think the irony of the whole thing, if BA buys the A380 they will probably configure it for 430 pax's making it a rich mans toy not the environmental savior that the Europeans are looking for.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2007-09-27 08:29:35 and read 10868 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 157):
probably the B748i has a theoretical advantage there, as its GE engine is a much later development as the A380's and therefore "cleaner"



Quoting Caminito (Reply 172):
Factually, the engines of the B748i (and B787) are much more recent, therefore more state of the art and probably more silent

Fancy BA opting for those old T900 clunkers....  biggrin 

Regards

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Caminito
Posted 2007-09-27 08:32:28 and read 10846 times.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 176):
Threads over. Let's lock it. BA has spoken!!

Could you complete this?

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Baroque
Posted 2007-09-27 08:33:04 and read 10847 times.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 175):
I wonder how many airports will be "A380 ready" by, say 2015? It will surely be substantially more than the "25 or so" you quote (from somewhere)
But your wording also begs the question "how many airports worldwide see regular sheduled 747 movements today?
(As an afterthough, how many airports were "747 ready" when the 747 went into service?)

 checkmark  There is another precedent, the VC10 was designed to overcome problems of many airports not being suitable for the 707 but by the time the VC10 was in service, the runways had been extended and could now take the 707. Howevr, the VC10 still had the extra weight to give it better take-off performance.

It appears airports follow the need.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-09-27 09:14:02 and read 10748 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 179):
Could you complete this?

??? 12 x A380 + 24 x 787.

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Pixuk
Posted 2007-09-27 10:16:07 and read 10624 times.

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 32):
748i and 787 is a definite along with 6-10 A380's.

There were a lot of "definite" predictions of 748i's in this thread, but this was the one that made me smile most in light of BA's announcement.

[Edited 2007-09-27 10:17:05]

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-09-27 14:54:01 and read 10432 times.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 173):
Could you indicate the page? Thanks

Chairman's report page 4,

"Earlier in the year we ordered four Boeing 777s for delivery in 2009 and we expect to make a major order soon for new replacement and growth longhaul aircraft to be delivered in the next decade."

On page 7

"The third theme, ‘Invest in Growth’, evolves from the previous ‘Fit for Growth’ theme as the Group begins to make investments in new longhaul growth aircraft. This investment programme has already begun with the announcement of four firm orders and four options for the purchase of Boeing 777-200ER aircraft for delivery in 2009 and 2010 respectively."

"The Company also launched tenders to manufacturers for longhaul fleet growth and replacement beyond 2010. These
tenders included the potential replacement of the longhaul Boeing 767 fleet and the older Boeing 747-400s."

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 175):
I wonder how many airports will be "A380 ready" by, say 2015? It will surely be substantially more than the "25 or so" you quote (from somewhere)
But your wording also begs the question "how many airports worldwide see regular sheduled 747 movements today?
(As an afterthough, how many airports were "747 ready" when the 747 went into service?)
I struggle to see this as a long-term issue for the A380
But that's just me

I covered that in reply 37 in this thread Rumor: BA Fleet Announcement Now In Early Oct (by NYC777 Sep 7 2007 in Civil Aviation)


  • 80% of current 747 movements are concentrated into just 37 airports (AKL, AMS, ANC, BKK, BOM, CDG, CTS, DEL, DXB, FRA, FUK, HKG, HND, HNL, ICN, ITM, JED, JFK, JNB, KIX, KUL, LAX, LHR, LUX, MEL, MIA, MNL, NRT, OKA, ORD, PEK, PVG, RUH, SFO, SIN, SYD, TPE). The remaining 183 airports receive 20%, of that 183 more are freighter ports which do not need A380 gates.
  • If the BA order is announced in 4 weeks around the same time as the first A380 gets handed over to SQ, the following airports will be ready for BA when their aircraft would arrive AKL, AMS, ANC, AUH, BCN, BKK, BLR, BNE, BOM, CDG, CGK, CMB, CPT, DEL, DFW, DOH, DXB, FCO, FDF, FRA, HKG, HYD, IAD, ICN, IND, JED, JFK, JNB, KHI, KIX, KUL, LAX, LGW, LHR, MAD, MAN, MEL, MEM, MEX, MIA, MNL, MUC, MXP, NCE, NGO, NRT, ONT, ORD, ORY, PEK, PER, PTP, PVG, RUH, RUN, SDF, SFO, SIN, STN, SYD, TLV, TPE, YUL, YVR, YYZ

Topic: RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?
Username: Jano
Posted 2007-09-27 15:24:58 and read 10359 times.

British Airways Ditches 747 For Airbus A380

British Airways ended decades of loyalty to Boeing's 747 jumbo with a switch to Airbus's new A380 superjumbo on Thursday as it announced a mixed plane order worth up to USD$8.2 billion.

The order for 12 superjumbos from Airbus and 24 787 Dreamliners from Boeing will replace 34 of the airline's older long-haul planes.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/