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Topic: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 08:49:16 and read 15241 times.

We have heard rumblings of a possible "777 Next Generation" from both airline and Boeing principles to compete with the A350 family.

On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

In this discussion - EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal (by EI321 Nov 17 2007 in Civil Aviation) - Alangirvan posted the following quote from an interview by Flight's Geoffrey Thomas with Boeing's Scot Carson:

Quote:
"Boeing is also working on engine and aerodynamic improvements in the 777-300ER and 777-200LR aircraft," according to Mr Carson.

"We (Boeing and GE) are working on improvements from the GEnx (for the 787) program into the GE90," Carson said.

He also noted that Boeing was fine-tuning the aerodynamics of the aircraft and expected to offer airlines a package that would match the promised seat mile costs of the newly launched A350-1000 years before that aircraft entered service.

In the longer term, Boeing is considering its options for a replacement for the 777 that would possibly enter service in the 2015-2018 time frame."

BlueSky1976 added that if Boeing decides to give 777 a brand new composite wing, it would extend the market life of the 777 family by at least another 20 years.

In that same thread, JoeCanuck postulated:

Quoting JoeCanuck:
If Boeing can indeed improve the 777 performance levels to match the 350, and can keep it cheap enough, why wouldn't airlines buy it? Most of the savings in the 350 will come from the engines. It's definitely in GE's best interest, as well as Boeings.

GE continues to be publicly non-committal on powering the A350, while continuing to extol the virtues of the LR777 and GE90-11xB family available today.



While it does seem unlikely Boeing could match the A350 in performance across-the-board, could they develop a lighter 777 structure and give it a new wing and improved engines and get close?

Al-Li alloys have advanced a great deal since the early 1990's when they were first considered for the 777 and would create a lighter and stronger frame. And techniques like laser welding or friction-stirred welding (FSW) would result in a smoother surface (less rivets) and would reduce labor costs and assembly times. And improved use of composites would help reduce weight even more as well as lower maintenance costs.

The GE90 has been superseded by two generations of GE engines (GP7000 and GEnx), yet a number of the technologies introduced with those two generations can likely be implemented in the GE90, lowering SFC and noise.

A new wing design - even if not produced out of CFRP - would improve field, climb and cruise performance and result in less thrust, noise, and fuel burn then the current 77L and 77W.

If Boeing could lower seat-costs and fuel burn by up to 10% and increase range to 8000nm (matching the A350-1000), it might be the "safe bet" for many existing 777 operators over the A350 and could give Boeing the "breathing room" they need until around 2020 to launch Y3 as a true 777 replacement with a 350 and 400 seater along with an "Special Performance" 300 seater with sufficient range to link any two cities on the globe 365-days a year at nominal payload.

The key, of course, is the money and the time. Even minor updates could be hundreds of millions and going for a significant overhaul will be in the billions. Boeing is still looking at a couple hundred 777 sales even if they do nothing and they can add even more by lowering the price on each sale as the A350's EIS approaches.

And yet, a 777NG can be developed and brought to market much quicker then a 787HGW, to say nothing of a true replacement (Y3). It is based on a design both proven and popular. And it is wider, which allows 10-abreast Economy and 7-abreast Business seating for fitting more passengers in similar physical seat comfort to the A350.


Opinions?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Pnwtraveler
Posted 2007-11-18 08:58:57 and read 15202 times.

It wasn't too long ago that somewhere on here someone from Boeing made a statement that incremental improvements to aircraft are a hallmark of Boeing and that they were looking at it for the 777. I have searched and can't find it. Boeing did it with the 747-300 while it was finalizing the 400. It wasn't a huge seller but some airlines took it until the two man cockpit 400 came to market. I think there is room for an advanced 777 before the full blown Y3 is launched. If airlines are asking for something in sufficient quantities they will do it.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Olle
Posted 2007-11-18 09:00:13 and read 15193 times.

Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed? A330 and B777 will all be paid off and can be sold profitable to a low cost.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 09:03:08 and read 15176 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

Likely because the airlines themselves didn't think so. And since they're the ones buying the thing...

Anyway, let's not try and make this a debate about the 787. Or another whizzing match about Boeing and Airbus. Please? Let us stay on topic.  pray 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Airbuske
Posted 2007-11-18 09:10:31 and read 15136 times.

Even if Boeing manages to drastically improve on the performance of the 777, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Olle
Posted 2007-11-18 09:12:27 and read 15113 times.

>> Anyway, let's not try and make this a debate about the 787.

I agree, but also I consider that if Boeing does not create a 777NG with a new wing and a lot of other huge improvements I consider that the differents between 777NG and the 350 in performance should be similar to the current situation with A330NG and the B787...


It might show that Airbus did something very smart to leave the lowend of the 787 / 767 market and instead concentrate on the 777 market. I am not shure that Boeing predicted this in the start.

Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

How much weight can Boeing take off the 777? will it be enough for making something interesting without invest too much $/€?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: DfwRevolution
Posted 2007-11-18 09:13:21 and read 15115 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
No one seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

That's because it can't. The 787 largely obliterates the economics of the A330...

Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed?

No, we're not wrong. The A330 continued to sell because it was a solid aircraft available in the near-term. The same airlines looking for a long-term solution rejected the A350 v1.0 because it wasn't a viable competitor to the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

Anything could happen, but I don't think it can be done anymore. Whatever "version" of A350 Airbus has reached, I think they've finally got a product that Boeing can't match with a 20 year-old platform anymore.

I think Boeing would be best advised to begin delivery of heavier 787 variants by 2016 at the absolute latests and start a FUD campaign for Y3 in 2009-2010 for a product to enter service in 2018-2020.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-11-18 09:32:39 and read 15002 times.

No, the 777 will never compete with the A350.

Figuring out how long to milk 777 sales before devoting massive resources to the Y3 project (777+747 replacement ~ 350-450) is a very important question for boeing.

A year and a half ago it looked like Airbus was in serious trouble, but now that they've got the A350 right, it seems like Boeing might be in trouble.

How will Boeing convince airlines to order their new 777NG when after 2015 everybody is flying new A350s? And will they have the resources to design a CRFP 777 replacement if they decide to do Y1 737RS next? I think if Boeing chooses an all new 737 as their next big project, we wont see a 777 replacement until 2022.

For that reason I hope Boeing really makes the 787-10 (and maybe -11) a near perfect plane in order to be able to keep selling and building widebodies after the 777 stops production.

But even after 2015, could the A350 production be sold out so far in advance that 777s are still selling? Even if they are, I think Boeing should not "improve" the 777, and should just build a new model from the ground up.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 09:54:20 and read 14906 times.



Quoting Airbuske (Reply 4):
Even if Boeing manages to drastically improve on the performance of the 777, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?

The XWB will almost certainly enjoy lower production costs, which will result in a lower list price. And this may very well kill any prospects for a seriously-overhauled "777NG". Boeing has now likely recovered the R&D costs of the current 777 program and therefore only needs to worry about actual production costs and overhead, but that would not be the case with a major overhaul.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
It might show that Airbus did something very smart to leave the low-end of the 787 / 767 market and instead concentrate on the 777 market. I am not sure that Boeing predicted this in the start.

When Boeing created the 7E7/787, Airbus' long-term plans were to stay the course with the A330E/A343E and to develop an A345E and A346E to help narrow the performance gap to the 77L and 77W. It was only after the 787 design had been committed to and the original A350 was struggling to find the same level of acceptance ("rejected" is too strong a word since it did have close to 200 orders) that Airbus decided to move up-market with the XWB.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

I believe that if Boeing decides to replace, rather then enhance, the 777 in the "near term", they are better off either doing a 787HGW (787-10 and 787-11) or moving to Y3 with 10-11 abreast Y seating and two models around 350 and 400 seats, each. I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I (even if that model has minimal sales prospects) and could infringe upon the 747-8F, which is the model Boeing most likely wants to protect.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
How much weight can Boeing take off the 777? (And) will it be enough for making something interesting without invest too much $/€?

That is the $64/€43 question.  Smile

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 6):
Anything could happen, but I don't think it can be done anymore. Whatever "version" of A350 Airbus has reached, I think they've finally got a product that Boeing can't match with a 20 year-old platform anymore.

I think Boeing would be best advised to begin delivery of heavier 787 variants by 2016 at the absolute latests and start a FUD campaign for Y3 in 2009-2010 for a product to enter service in 2018-2020.

I don't see Boeing launching both a 787HGW and Y3 as there would be too much overlap between them, but I do see launching one or the other by the late 2010's.

A very mildly refreshed 777/GE90 would support such a program. Sell the 777 until the 787HGW or Y3 rolls out and then convert it to freighters. It would be interesting to see if Boeing could assemble both the 747 and 777 freighters in Building 40-22, which would free-up Building 40-25 for additional 787 assembly. On the other hand, if 77F production rates are only a few a month, a lot of the space in 40-25 used to hold major 777 sub-assemblies could be used to hold major 787 sub-assemblies to support a quicker 787 final-assembly line in 40-26. If Boeing could get a 787 out the door in two days instead of three, that would support a 33% increase in line rate right there...  scratchchin 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-11-18 10:09:03 and read 14819 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

...if Boeing and GE can achieve the numbers they believe, the B77W has some kind of chance...also, I think these numbers would reflect 9-across on the A350-10 and 10-across on the B773ER.....



..that being said, it would be fairly expensive to the changes (i.e.-composite wings, etc) Boeing would make. The plane would probably have to be recertified again also.

Quoting Airbuske (Reply 4):
correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?

..actually, the A350-1000 and B773ER are closed to being evenly matched in terms of price (I think)..however, given the A350-1000 is a new plane with a very start up (i.e.-development and manufacturing) costs and with Boeing doing extremely well on the B777 program (even the B77W/B77LR/B77F are doing extremely well), Boeing can afford to give a larger discount...that is something which needs to be taken into consideration.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
The XWB will almost certainly enjoy lower production costs, which will result in a lower list price.

....production costs might be lower, but initial (startup) costs are much larger..that is certainly known.....given that launch customers get a nice discount, planes sold "later on the production line" will have to be sold at a higher costs to recuperate investments.....where the converse is true for the B777 program.

All-in-all, I don't see the B77W competing with the A350-1000 in 6-7 years from now...... Sad

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Danny
Posted 2007-11-18 10:25:25 and read 14723 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
He also noted that Boeing was fine-tuning the aerodynamics of the aircraft and expected to offer airlines a package that would match the promised seat mile costs of the newly launched A350-1000 years before that aircraft entered service.

I'd like to see that.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2007-11-18 11:00:10 and read 14568 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

Of course they can pull it off. They can probably never match the technical performance of the A350 because of a 20 year technology gap, but airlines don't care about that. They care about cost. Matching the cost of the 777 to the A350 is much much easier, and that's all that's required to stay competitive. Obviously, we should expect the A350 to be more successful if executed per design, but Boeing can continue to sell 777's against the A350 for some time if they want to.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
The GE90 has been superseded by two generations of GE engines (GP7000 and GEnx)

It's true that the GE90 has two engines after it. Saying that it's been superseded or that the GP7000 and GEnx are different generations (from the GE90 or from each other) is pretty misleading. Both of the newer engines borrow heavily from the GE90 and are incremental improvements across the board. Fitting those improvements back into the GE90 is just like the Tech Insertion program on the CFM56, and I would fully expect we'll see something like it on the GE90.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
And yet, a 777NG can be developed and brought to market much quicker then a 787HGW, to say nothing of a true replacement (Y3).

How do you figure? The changes required for a 777NG are considerably larger than those for a 787HGW.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
No, the 777 will never compete with the A350.

Sure it will. "Compete" and "win the market share" are totally different things. Only one aircraft can be winning the market, but that doesn't mean you don't have two aircraft competing. The 777 is competing *right now* with the A350...Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Airbuske
Posted 2007-11-18 11:00:21 and read 14573 times.

Okay so I made some rough calculations for my own comparison. I don't claim that they are precise or accurate.

Big version: Width: 872 Height: 478 File size: 115kb


As you can see above, assuming that improvements in engine performance will give the 777NG will have similar fuel burns to the A350 XWB, the 772LR which has almost the same range as the A359 weighs about 20% more. The same deal goes when comparing the 773ER and the A350-1000.

Is it possible? I don't know

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-11-18 11:10:13 and read 14515 times.



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
it seems like Boeing might be in trouble.

 laughing  Boeing isn't in trouble by any means.

Boeing does face an interesting decision, but it's not one that they need to rush by any means. The 787 and 777 continue to sell very well. Eventually, the A350-1000 will start to take sales from the 777, but to date Airbus has only sold 40 of that model.

I see their choices as being
1 - Develop -10, -11 and HGW variants of the 787 and leave the 748i to battle the A380.
2 - Develop the "basic stretch" -10 and an all-new Y3 in the 350-450 seat range.
3 - Develop the "basic stretch" -10 and go with a 77W "warm-over" to try and battle the bigger A350s till Boeing decides what to do with the 787 and Y3.

In terms of money invested to develop planes, option 1 is likely to be the cheapest overall. However, the HGW versions do still present some challenges, not least around engines. I don't believe the GEnx can grow enough to power these HGW planes. RR could offer a bleedless version of the Trent-XWB, but GE might have to develop a GEnx 1.5. There will likely be quite a few differences between the -8 and the HGW versions (new u/c, new wing, different engines).

An all-new Y3 will be very expensive, and there are plenty who think the market isn't big enough to support it.

Option three might buy Boeing some time, but could be a risky strategy if the warmed 77W isn't good enough to stop airlines switching to the A350.

As I said, they have a decision to make, but they do have quite a bit of time available to ensure they make the best one.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 11:16:13 and read 14485 times.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
How do you figure? The changes required for a 777NG are considerably larger than those for a 787HGW.

Yes, but the 777 order book does not extend to 2014-2015. Unless significant numbers of 787-8 and 787-9 orders are switched to 787-10s, Boeing can't offer new 787-10 production slots until around that time.

Now, if Boeing goes for a full-on 737NG style refresh of the 777 where the only thing they keep are the rough fuselage dimensions, then such a plane would take years to develop and market.

But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77Fs - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Brendows
Posted 2007-11-18 11:37:47 and read 14407 times.



Quoting Airbuske (Reply 12):
Okay so I made some rough calculations for my own comparison. I don't claim that they are precise or accurate.

Max payload range for the A359/A3510 is not 8100 and 8000nm. Those ranges are range with max pax+bags, not max payload. That changes your chart quite a bit  Wink

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Olle
Posted 2007-11-18 11:49:46 and read 14368 times.

>> I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I

I consider that the 747-8I is a dead fish in the water. It might short term replace some 747-400 but with the A350, A380-8 (v 1.0 and soon a upgraded v 1.5?) and A380-9 etc the Y3 should cover 777-300 and up. 777-200 should be covered by 787HGW.

The next question is if 787HGW needs a new wing or if it can have the same wing as 787-8 and 787-9?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Deaphen
Posted 2007-11-18 12:17:14 and read 14251 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
he Y3 should cover 777-300 and up

what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

nitin

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 12:28:11 and read 14202 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
I consider that the 747-8I is a dead fish in the water.

As do I, but if Boeing builds a brand-new 450 seater that means that the 747-8F becomes a less-effective freighter. Sure, Boeing can hold-off on offering a Y3F, but it will eventually happen and that means the 747-8F will not sell as many units as it could which will lower the variant's RoI.

Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
The next question is if 787HGW needs a new wing or if it can have the same wing as 787-8 and 787-9?

The existing wing can take close to 50t (US) more weight, but Boeing might want to develop a new wing, anyway, that would be more effective and efficient with higher MTOWs.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2007-11-18 12:30:14 and read 14194 times.

In the past, Boeing has a very good track record for making new planes out of old airframes. The 747, which is perhaps finally facing obsolescence after 40 years, and ONLY because of the A380, was continually upgraded during its lifetime. A 747-400 has almost nothing in common with a 747-100. Same goes for the 737. There are some airframes that are really meant to last. I think the 777 airframe is a solid one. It's not made of the fanciest materials, but it could easily be upgraded. Changing materials can be easier than changing the whole design. Not every conduit needs to be re-positioned, not every curve re-imagined. It would vastly reduce the development costs and breathe new life into an already excellent product.

Could it compete with the A350? I don't know, because even still, Airbus has been typically tight-lipped about what sort of performance to expect with the A350. And anyone who claims to know probably doesn't.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: FWI747
Posted 2007-11-18 12:41:50 and read 14143 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77F's - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.

Big version: Width: 445 Height: 297 File size: 114kb



Do you mean like 787's variable camber feature? This picture (from a 2006 FlightInternational article) shows a wind tunnel mock up of a 777 with new lift devices - some sort of single slotted flaps. I recall Boeing saying they were testing it for the Dreamliner, it seemed strange to do it on a 777.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2007-11-18 12:44:24 and read 14125 times.



Quoting Deaphen (Reply 17):
what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

Boeing did a series of design studies a while back on what a whole new product line would look like. The most well known was called "Yellowstone", which had three airplanes spanning the entire size range: Y1, Y2, and Y3. Y2 is what became the 787. Y3 a theoretical airplane based on 787-like technology that would replace the 777 and 747.

So "Y3" and "Y1" have become shorthand for "777 replacement" and "737 replacement" respectively. This isn't strictly correct, since there were design studies other than Yellowstone and a plane other than Y1 or Y3 might be what actually gets built, but that's a minor semantic detail.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Atmx2000
Posted 2007-11-18 14:23:27 and read 13778 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed? A330 and B777 will all be paid off and can be sold profitable to a low cost.



Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
I agree, but also I consider that if Boeing does not create a 777NG with a new wing and a lot of other huge improvements I consider that the differents between 777NG and the 350 in performance should be similar to the current situation with A330NG and the B787..

One advantage the 787 had was that it was entering a market which significantly greater sales volume. A new design optimized for that market would have development costs spread over a very large number of units. The 350 pax market that the 773ER serves and A350-1000 will serve has inherently lower volume, and thus fewer units to spread costs over. In that type of market a derivative may make sense if it can be developed cheaply. Plus Boeing has the advantage of a favorable exchange rate.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

I think a design starting slightly higher than the 773ER and extending to A388 capacity makes most sense, with the higher capacity variants coming sometime after 2020.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scipio
Posted 2007-11-18 14:39:57 and read 13597 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I (even if that model has minimal sales prospects) and could infringe upon the 747-8F, which is the model Boeing most likely wants to protect.

I do not think Boeing sees the 747-8 as a multi-decade product. It's more like a stopgap solution. The sensible thing for Boeing seems to be to cover the 300-350 passenger size with 787HGW models and position Y3 in the 350-500 passenger size, replacing the B777-300ER and 747-8 and competing with the A350-1000 from above and with the A380 from below.

Pretty much a kind of plane like Keesje's Ecoliner...

But with Y1 being a necessity in the next ten years and resources needed for the 787HGW, I do not expect Y3 before the end of the next decade at the earliest. Meanwhile, improvements to the 77L and 77W are the way to go.

Scipio.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: EBJ1248650
Posted 2007-11-18 15:23:35 and read 13160 times.



Quoting Deaphen (Reply 17):


Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
he Y3 should cover 777-300 and up

what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

nitin

Y3 is supposed to be Boeing's answer to the need to replace both the 747 and the 777. The project hasn't been started yet, though there are some who believe the 748i isn't selling well because airlines want Boeing to go to work on the Y3 and give them a fresh new airplane that will replace the 747 altogether. Hope this answers your question.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 15:26:31 and read 13115 times.



Quoting Scipio (Reply 23):
I do not think Boeing sees the 747-8 as a multi-decade product. It's more like a stopgap solution.

I think it is more a case of "well, we needed to build the 747-8F anyway, so might as well make a passenger model and see if it sells".

Boeing has consistently said they don't see the 450+ seat market to be a large one, especially large enough to justify their own eleven-figure investment.

Also, unless Boeing does indeed go with two decks (ala the Ecoliner) or a 12-abreast single deck plane (ala the Boeing 763-246C concept), then it is unlikely they will be able to get beyond 400 seats without exceeding 80m. A 65m 10-abreast Y3-100 would seat around 350 and a 75m 10-abreast Y3-200 would seat around 400 in a "standard" Boeing three-class configuration.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-11-18 15:57:25 and read 13477 times.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Not Fair. When they A350 is in production, no way people will buy the 777. Will the A330 compete against the 787? No. But its selling now because you can get one. Airlines will be topping off A330s and 777 fleets for a while but both planes order books will decline after that.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77Fs - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.

You know, that kind of talk sounds like the first 350 proposal, and we know where that ended up. I say either do 737 replacement or 777 replacement; but whichever one Boeing does, do it 110% and aim very high.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 16:03:55 and read 13414 times.



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 26):
You know, that kind of talk sounds like the first 350 proposal, and we know where that ended up.

Yup. Which is why it might be better for Boeing to just take the couple hundred 777s they're going to win, anyway, and let the A350 build it's foundation and then launch Y3 to bracket it at the top with Y2 (the 787) bracketing it at the bottom and then start squeezing...

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: FCKC
Posted 2007-11-18 16:26:44 and read 13206 times.

I am not too convinced about something ..NG

All XXNGs planes failed
767-400 , A340-500-600 , 707 with CFM56 engines , Caravelle12 , first A350 project based on the A330 , TU154M....................except the highly sucessful 737.

If Boeing want to be competitive vs A350 and not to lose market share they have with the 777 , they have to build a very efficiency new plane , or to go ahead with 787-10 or even 11.That's my feeling.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: EI321
Posted 2007-11-18 16:36:29 and read 13112 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Opinions?

A very well written piece stitch.

My opinion is that this will have the same effect against the A350 that the 'A350MK1' had against the 787.

Bring on the 787HGW!

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2007-11-18 16:42:21 and read 13058 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Yup. Which is why it might be better for Boeing to just take the couple hundred 777s they're going to win, anyway, and let the A350 build it's foundation and then launch Y3 to bracket it at the top with Y2 (the 787) bracketing it at the bottom and then start squeezing...

I have said pretty much the same on this subject many times. The 777 is dead; it will still enjoy sales until delivery times for the A350 become competitive, and then it will become just like the 767 is now. It is a great plane, and has provided many airlines with spectacular service, but it is time to move on. The same applies to the 748; any attempt to protect it will only cost sales. Boeing did expect to sell a substantial number of 748i's, but that does not appear to be happening; but I believe that they are selling more 748F's than they expected to. They will make money on the project, but if they allow consideration for it to compromise the Y3 design they are being foolish indeed. I believe that Boeing will launch Y1 within the next couple of years, and will launch Y3 as soon as they have the resources available. They will not develop HGW versions of the 787 because that will cut into Y3 territory; this will mean that they will cede the large widebody market to Airbus for a few years but will regain it with a better and more complete lineup. They probably will not develop a direct competitor to the A380, but Y3 should offer considerably better CASM which will marginalize the A380. Anyway, that's what I would do if I were running Boeing.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: BAKJet
Posted 2007-11-18 17:35:27 and read 12620 times.

I think that the A350 and 777 are competitors.But many airlines have already bought the 777, so it would make sense to buy more 777 so that they would have more fleet commonality. Another thing is that some airlines are loyal to Boeing and some to Airbus. So, I don't think they really need to do too much to make it competitive.

[Edited 2007-11-18 17:36:34]

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2007-11-18 17:44:53 and read 12528 times.



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 26):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Not Fair. When they A350 is in production, no way people will buy the 777.

Obviously, only time will tell, but it's virtually unheard of for one plane to take 100% of the market when their performance figures are that close. The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-11-18 17:51:40 and read 12475 times.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 30):
They will not develop HGW versions of the 787 because that will cut into Y3 territory

Well first of all, what do you mean by Y3? Could be 350 / 400 or could be 400 / 500 seats.

Either way, a 330 seat 787-10 or 11 will fit in beautifully with Boeing's mid size widebody offerings, and if done really sweet, it could pick up some new airlines and sell many to existing 787 carriers.

Airlines wouldn't have to choose between the BIG 787 or Y3 because Y3 would start with substantially more seats and go way higher.

So I think the best way to deal with the situation is do what the Irish dude said :

Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
Bring on the 787HGW!

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Mandala499
Posted 2007-11-18 18:08:02 and read 12321 times.

Airbuske...
Your comparison chart is using things that are different from each other.
At MTOW and Max Payload, you probably can't carry max fuel.
If you carry max fuel, you can carry whatever weight remains to reach MTOW... and then see how far you go.

Just assume the number of seats between the respective versions are the same.
Do your comparison based on MTOW, and compare them for 3000NM to 8000NM for each.
Get the fuel amount and payload comparisons for those missions.
Then you can get a more accurate figure for competition between the two... fuel burn per seat NM or fuel burn per ton kilometer (just use the payload figures).

In the past I suspected a trend in that for aircraft of similar capacity and mission profiles Airbus can give you the lowest cost per mile, Boeing have a higher figure in costs but can give a better revenue potential (330 vs 777 classic case), and therefore on a route margin basis, they're very competitive. Can't compare them on single aspects fairly, gotta compare them on what matters most... it's not who has the lowest cost, but who has the best operating margins. Though I suspect the 350 might beat the 777 in this comparison...

Mandala499

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Sh0rtybr0wn
Posted 2007-11-18 19:02:09 and read 11948 times.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 32):
The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

You really think so?

Whats your take on how much better than the 767 is the 787, and how much better than the 777 is the hypothetical A350XWB?

I thought it was a very similar jump in efficiency because both are composite planes vs. AL.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2007-11-18 19:29:08 and read 11742 times.

I don't think Boeing should try to milk the 777 to compete with the new-technology 350.

My feeling is they would instead commit to the 787-10, and also get a head start on the replacement for the 737/320 market, which will be huge.

Whereas Airbus has a very healthy order book indeed, I would suggest that their finances do not support them starting another clean sheet aircraft in the near future. 380 investment and delays have taken their toll financially in the short term, and sloe producton rates for the first two years will not help. "Power 8" restructuring will be expensive, and at the moment the 350 is costing them a lot of development money but not bringing in any revenue to speak of.

Boeing, on the other hand, is in a better position to commit to a new design once the 787 is going out the door in numbers, which will be much sooner than the 350.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Iwok
Posted 2007-11-18 19:54:55 and read 11537 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
While it does seem unlikely Boeing could match the A350 in performance across-the-board,

I don't think it needs to beat the 350 across the board: just the high end because the 787 has the lower end under control.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 28):
I am not too convinced about something ..NG

How about the 737-NG  confused 

iwok

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2007-11-18 20:05:34 and read 11493 times.



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 32):
The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

You really think so?

Yes.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):

Whats your take on how much better than the 767 is the 787, and how much better than the 777 is the hypothetical A350XWB?

787 is supposed to burn 20% less fuel than the 767. I would be very surprised if the difference between the 777 and the A350XWB exceeds 10%, Airbus proclamations notwithstanding. The biggest thing the A350XWB will have over the 777 is engine improvement, but there's no way that will reach 20%. Use of CFRP will provide some weight advantage (and considerable maintenance advantage) but the 777 structure is extremely good (and makes use of quite a bit of CFRP as well).

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):

I thought it was a very similar jump in efficiency because both are composite planes vs. AL.

Composites aren't actually that large a contributor to increased fuel efficiency. The biggest gains are in passenger comfort and maintenance cost. They are generally lighter, but it's not as much of a change as you might expect. The 787 is getting the benefit of about 25 years of technology improvement over the 767. The A350XWB only has about 15 years over the current generation 777.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2007-11-18 20:45:25 and read 11241 times.

The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

Given the similarity in the above relationships, one can infer that the "refreshed 777" going against the A350 will meet the same fate as the "refreshed A330" met against the 787. So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-18 21:15:32 and read 11065 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

When the 787 was 8-abreast and the A350 was 9-abreast, that helped the A350. When Boeing moved to 9-abreast, as well, that is when the A350 really started to stumble. The 777NG would still offer 10-abreast in Y, as well as 7-abreast in C/J.

Again, the point of the 777NG would not to be to go head-to-head with the A350 and win a significant number of those RFPs. It would be to win more RFPs closer to 2013 then the "baseline" 777 would, as well as win enough past 2013 to keep current Boeing customers "in the family" until Y3 could be delivered in the late 2010s.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-18 22:46:50 and read 10578 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):

The greatest contributor to those gains were the engines. Even Airbus has stated that there are not significant weight savings in going to CFRP. There are many benefits but weight isn't the major one.

Back when the original 350 was to use the same engines as the 787, it would have had similar efficiencies. The problem that EK and others had with it was that it was too small and, I believe, short ranged. Some brainiac pointed out that you could put 9 across in a 787 so everybody wanted that option in the 350 too. That's why the new 350 is called the XWB.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-11-18 23:50:31 and read 10281 times.

Boeing does have another weapon that it can use to make the existing 777 models more attractive vs. the A350. They can simply slash the price. While this strategy is almost "admitting defeat", it would likely gain the 777 some additional sales over the next five years.

Of course, it doesn't do anything for the longer-term competitivness of the 777 against the A350, but it would buy Boeing more time just when they need it.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Mir
Posted 2007-11-19 00:28:03 and read 10085 times.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

I suspect that the sales that the 777 is getting over the 350 are similar to the sales that the 330 is getting over the 787, with some airlines deciding that they're better off having a decently economical plane now than a more economical plane several years down the line.

Delivery timeline, while certainly important, is about the only thing the 777 has going for it over the 350.

-Mir

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Slz396
Posted 2007-11-19 00:37:39 and read 10038 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Boeing does have another weapon that it can use to make the existing 777 models more attractive vs. the A350. They can simply slash the price.

How ironic...

Are we allowed to make the claim "they're only selling because they're giving them away for free!" then, a remark which has been thrown all too easily to Airbus in the past by some Boeing fan-boys?
 stirthepot 

Back to topic:

The last minute decision from Airbus NOT to go ahead with the original A330-based A350 and NOT to fight head on with the 787 after all, but rather come with a larger all new plane aiming right in between the 787 and 777 proofs to be a very good one and gives Boeing a very very though nut to crack, putting them in a catch 22 situation:

1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be? Currently you don't hear of them no more, do you? That's because they are trying to figure out just how and at what price they can come with a larger model of the 787 which can be competitive to the A350.

2- the XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned, something which is extremely inconvenient, as Boeing wanted to focus on their 737 replacement during that time period.

The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire usefull life. It now seems inevitable that this will not be the case for several Boeing products and that the outcome of it all will be that Boeing will have to give up its dominance in the market segment of planes above roughly 300 seats!

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Flipdewaf
Posted 2007-11-19 01:10:35 and read 9864 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
Given the similarity in the above relationships, one can infer that the "refreshed 777" going against the A350 will meet the same fate as the "refreshed A330" met against the 787. So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

I agree with that one there, what is it that boeing will be able to do with the 777NG that airbus couldnt do with the A350 original? you cant just "make it out of cfrp" instead because its not as easy as that. I think the airlines would say the same thing they did with the A350 and it will simply not cut the mustard. The way I see it is that If boeing develop Y3 then the Y1 market is going to be left open to airbus or boeing can make Y1 now and leave the 777 to live out its life and try and get Y1 up and running with Y3 coming aaround 2018~2020.

Fred

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-11-19 03:58:30 and read 9263 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Opinions?

I think a 773ER update could be competitive over 3000-6500 nm, but the way forward I would think would be a hybrid material, not to go composite. Hybrids are lighter and stronger than composites, easier to manufacture, with similar fatigue properties, and more importantly on an aircraft that has been designed with a traditional AL structure, easier and cheaper to substitute. I would image that GEnx engine technology will creep into the GE90 and GP7200 as they have similar beginnings improving the TSFC.

I dont think an updated 772LR or 772F will be competitive, mainly on the cost front. Nor do I see a 773ER being competitive over 8000 nm, the amount of extra fuel they would need to carry for the additional block fuel flow, as well as airframe would be too prohibitive in my view over that distance.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 38):
The biggest thing the A350XWB will have over the 777 is engine improvement, but there's no way that will reach 20%. Use of CFRP will provide some weight advantage (and considerable maintenance advantage) but the 777 structure is extremely good (and makes use of quite a bit of CFRP as well).

The 777 currently only have about 10% composite use, 330 has over 20%, to structurally "catch up" with the A350XWB would require about a 40% increase in advanced materials on the 777, the 777 would also need to improve the aerodynamic package.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 789 will burn about 15% less fuel than an A332 with the same number of passengers onboard in 3 class config (250-260 pax) over about 6000 nm, the 763ER will burn about the same about of block fuel as the 789, but has about 50 less pax, or about 3.5t less payload.

The 789 does this over the 332 by a lower TSFC, meaning lower block fuel, and lower TOW, with similar OEW. The A350XWB will have a significantly lower OEW/TOW and lower TSFC than the 773ER. In my view the best gains for the 777 would be to make it a little longer and improve the TSFC for the same OEW.

But if Airbus was to make the obvious counter move adding a further stretched A350-1000 ??? by 2.9 m or 4.35 m would allow for 4 or 6 more LD3s as well as more pax than a 773QRXNG.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 05:16:04 and read 8843 times.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire usefull life. It now seems inevitable that this will not be the case for several Boeing products and that the outcome of it all will be that Boeing will have to give up its dominance in the market segment of planes above roughly 300 seats!

You are such a silly rabbit...so darned gleeful whenever you can create another, "The Death of Boeing is Nigh", post. So childlike in your misguided innocence, no matter that you have nothing more than vitriol from which to draw your conclusions. Nothing is inevitable except death. All else is speculation...no matter how much you may wish it.

[Edited 2007-11-19 05:21:53]

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-11-19 06:09:26 and read 8535 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):

2- the XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned,

...after the Boeing 777 has been in production for 20 years??

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER

..after it has sold over 1100 frames??

Quoting Zeke (Reply 46):

But if Airbus was to make the obvious counter move adding a further stretched A350-1000 ??? by 2.9 m or 4.35 m would allow for 4 or 6 more LD3s as well as more pax than a 773QRXNG.

 checkmark ...given the size of the A350 wings, I expect to eventually see an A350-1100....operating economics on it would be fantastic. It would be even larger than the largest B787 (a hypothetical -11) but I do think that might eat into A380/B748 sales....

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
You are such a silly rabbit...so darned gleeful whenever you can create another, "The Death of Boeing is Nigh", post. So childlike in your misguided innocence

I don't think its "misguided innocence", I think its just plain "misguided"... Wink

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Seabosdca
Posted 2007-11-19 06:29:34 and read 8399 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be? Currently you don't hear of them no more, do you? That's because they are trying to figure out just how and at what price they can come with a larger model of the 787 which can be competitive to the A350.

This is absurd. I don't normally mind informed A vs. B debate -- we learn a lot from it -- but your hyperbole and smug tone are often really grating.

Boeing has never trumpeted the 787-10. All we've had from Boeing are occasional statements that it will happen but is still being defined.

A non-HGW 787-10 and the A350-900 would be different aircraft for different markets. Your comparison is just as if I compared an A330-300 to a 777-200ER and complained the A330-300 wasn't competitive. The 787-10 would be considerably lighter, with lower thrust and less range, but better efficiency on those missions it is capable of performing, than an A350-900. WingedMigrator's charts demonstrate this if you don't believe me, and show that the 787-10, just like the A330-300 in its day, will be a giant-killer in seat cost terms. Different aircraft for different missions.

I'm wondering something else about a potential 777NG, though. Would it be possible for Boeing to make the walls just a couple inches thinner on each side, in order to allow for 17.2" 10-abreast seating? If Boeing could add just enough space to make the 777NG a true 10-abreast aircraft for full-service carriers, that would have a dramatic effect on the aircraft's economics even before any other changes. Too bad for pax, but that's what you get for singlemindedly focusing on price...  tongue 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Slz396
Posted 2007-11-19 06:44:12 and read 8291 times.



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 48):
After the Boeing 777 has been in production for 20 years?? after it has sold over 1100 frames??

Regardless of what fabulous road lays BEHIND it, Boeing didn't expect the road AHEAD to be as short as it now shows to be.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
You are such a silly rabbit...

Is that the way you debate CONTENT on this forum????

I should propose deletion, but then I won't because you are actually underscoring my point: the A350 is a HUGE problem to both Boeing's mid-size AND upper-size products and there isn't a cheap nor quick fix solution to it.

Airbus successfully splashed what looks like a killer plane right in between the 787 and 777, thus seriously entroubling the nicely drafted quick and relatively cheap growth plans of the first which Boeing felt so comfortable about to publicly discussed them, while prematurely and irrefutably finishing off the life of the second.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 48):
I think its just plain "misguided".

You may think that indeed, fact is that UNLESS Boeing does something drastic to the 777, the 787 will be Boeing's biggest product of any significance as from mid next decade!

In the light of the discussions from only a year ago, when a certain aviation 'analyst' predicted Airbus to become a niche player on both the upper and lower end of the market only and Boeing to run away with far more important middle segment, I think some new guidance on who is trying to catch up whom may be needed here...

2007 isn't finished yet, but it is without doubt the year of Airbus' surprisingly fast return to the lead, in a way stronger than anybody would have imagined only 10 months ago, much to the frustration of those who came to believe the cup was won, as JoeCanuck's reaction above shows.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Jacobin777
Posted 2007-11-19 07:21:35 and read 8020 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 48):
After the Boeing 777 has been in production for 20 years?? after it has sold over 1100 frames??

Regardless of what fabulous road lays BEHIND it, Boeing didn't expect the road AHEAD to be as short as it now shows to be.

....funny, this is one of the best years of the B777 line....granted sales will slow down in a few years, but that take it to around 2012-2013....and do you expect Boeing to sit around and do nothing?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 48):
I think its just plain "misguided".

You may think that indeed, fact is that UNLESS Boeing does something drastic to the 777, the 787 will be Boeing's biggest product of any significance as from mid next decade!

......unless nothing...Boeing hasn't exactly shown all of their cards..once the A350 specs gets more solidified, Boeing will have an idea of how they should prepare for the A350...just like Airbus has done with the B787.......not to mention, Boeing's biggest product will be hitting 1000 frames pre-EIS...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):

In the light of the discussions from only a year ago, when a certain aviation 'analyst' predicted Airbus to become a niche player on both the upper and lower end of the market only and Boeing to run away with far more important middle segment, I think some new guidance on who is trying to catch up whom may be needed here...

..it was done within a context of framework....i.e-Airbus better get its act together or it will relegated to a "2nd-tier" status manufacturing company....

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 07:37:23 and read 7876 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):

I'm sorry...I must have mistaken your clear, unbiased and reasoned opinions as mindless rhetoric. I must apologise. I don't know how I could have been so mistaken.

I reckon that Boeing has over 5 years of profitable 787 sales before Airbus makes the first sheckle off of any variant of the 350. In the almost century of their existence, they've somehow managed to survive quite nicely. Maybe they actually do know how to run a business. They may have even heard of the 350 by now, themselves, and have wondered how best to deal with it. Perhaps they're just not telling the general public about future plans where billions of dollars hang in the balance.

With the buckets of cash that the 787 and all their other sold out and profitable aircraft lines are bringing in, I'm sure they'll, somehow, come up with a suitable counterpoint to the 350.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-19 07:53:27 and read 7723 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.

Even if Airbus had never launched the A350XWB, Boeing was still not going to grow the 787 any great deal, because they wanted to sell 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs.

All the A350XWB does is force Boeing to come out with a better plane sooner then planned. We might very well be seeing a repeat of the A340/777 story again, where Airbus launches first, scores a quick shedload of orders, and then Boeing launches a superior plane that puts the brakes on the Airbus product's sales and goes on itself to sell multiple shedloads.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned, something which is extremely inconvenient, as Boeing wanted to focus on their 737 replacement during that time period.

The A330 has shown that a good plane now will still sell now even if something better is available later. It will be no different for the 777 over the next decade. Orders will slow as the EIS of the A350 approaches, but if the A350 is a spectacular success, lack of availability will mean additional 777 sales post-EIS which will ensure the line continues to run until the 787HGW or Y3 is ready.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire useful life. It now seems inevitable that this will not be the case for several Boeing products and that the outcome of it all will be that Boeing will have to give up its dominance in the market segment of planes above roughly 300 seats!

Or Boeing will launch superior products in the 200-250 seat (787) and 300-400 seat (Y3) markets and squeeze Airbus into a very narrow gap with the A350-800 and A350-900. So far the A350-1000 has secured only 40 orders from two customers. EK intends to use their 20 to replace their 777-300s, not their 777-300ERs of which they will likely take even more of (rumors suggest they will exercise all 20 options before year's end). QR's 20 are likely for future expansion as well as replacement of their four A340-600s since their 14 77Ws are just starting to enter their fleet.

I continue to hear rumors that QF have ordered the A350-1000 and will announce such in the coming months. I remain skeptical, but since QF doesn't already operate the 777-300ER, they might as well just start with the A350-1000.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Iwok
Posted 2007-11-19 08:02:49 and read 7621 times.



Quoting Flipdewaf (Reply 45):
I agree with that one there, what is it that boeing will be able to do with the 777NG that airbus couldnt do with the A350 original?

Its definitely correct that the 330NG would be a great plane with new engines etc. However, its biggest problem is that it is stuck with 8-across, which means no matter how great it is on fuel burn etc, its economics will be worse than the 788/9 & 358.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 52):
I'm sorry...I must have mistaken your clear, unbiased and reasoned opinions as mindless rhetoric. I must apologise. I don't know how I could have been so mistaken.

Very well said  Smile

iwok

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: 2175301
Posted 2007-11-19 08:03:23 and read 7624 times.

In the end - I think the entire concept of an upgraded 777 series (of any model) will depend on what engines can be provided for it. GE or perhaps RR will be a major player in this concept. How much money is it worth developing an engine and what are the potential sales.

My gut feel is that IF GE decides that it could be economical to develop an updated - noticeably more efficient engine - then Boeing will find it economical to develop a new wing (those being the two most likely areas of improvement that would affect overall performance). That does not mean that there would not be some improvements in the fuselage - just not the initial (or main) focus.

Such a program may well add a decade to the sales life of the plane - even if the numbers are not real high.

I agree that a complete overhaul of the plane similar to the 737NG overhaul would not likely happen.

However, one thing to consider. Should the A350 program have some setbacks an updated 777 with new engine and wings would be in a very good position to gain a lot of orders. This point alone may make such an upgrade worth considering.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2007-11-19 08:23:24 and read 7481 times.



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

At what?

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
A year and a half ago it looked like Airbus was in serious trouble, but now that they've got the A350 right, it seems like Boeing might be in trouble.

How will Boeing convince airlines to order their new 777NG when after 2015 everybody is flying new A350s?

Airbus still has lots of problems with the A-380 and A-400 programs. They were smart to push the A-350XWB off to the mid point of the next decade, that could give them the breathing room they despertly need today. BTW, how is the A-350 right? They have not frozen the design, yet. EK still has plenty of time to screw the airplane up for everyone else, but themselves.

How is Boeing in trouble? Oh yeah. The world came to an end when the B-787 program incured a 6 month delay.
 Confused

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-11-19 08:33:17 and read 7404 times.



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 56):
BTW, how is the A-350 right? They have not frozen the design, yet. EK still has plenty of time to screw the airplane up for everyone else, but themselves.

The design was frozen a few months back, you may have remembered they announced lower thrust requirements for the aircraft.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...uirement%20For%20A350&channel=comm
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...wb-engine-thrust-requirements.html

from a letter to Airbus customers.

"A350 XWB DEVELOPMENT ON TRACK WITH FURTHER DESIGN REFINEMENTS

The A350 XWB programme continues to gain momentum. The new strong
management team in place since January is now supported by 2,500
engineers, the best in their fields, from across all Airbus sites and including
over 750 engineers working together on the multi-functional A350 XWB
Plateau in Toulouse. In July, the A350 XWB programme passed the
design freeze milestone, where the overall aircraft design, such as the
sizing of the fuselage and wings as well as the performance, weights and
range of the aircraft were set.
The next major milestone is the detailed
definition freeze at the end of 2008, where the aircraft configuration will be
completed

In September, Airbus gathered some 100 representatives from 40 airlines,
including existing customers and also potential buyers of the A350 XWB,
for a two-day programme review. To ensure and develop open and
constructive collaboration during the development phase of the aircraft,
new interactive on-line tools were presented which allow effective
communication between Airbus and its customers.

The latest refinements to the A350 XWB design were presented, including
evolutions on the fuselage cross-section to ensure the best cabin comfort,
an improved nose shape and large 15 inch displays in the cockpit to allow
for future operational requirements while preserving close commonality
with other Airbus aircraft, notably the A380.

In the review of the airframe structure, a detailed update was provided on
progress in the optimisation of the fuselage design. The nose section will
be largely constructed using metallic materials while the majority of the
fuselage frames will now be manufactured from composite materials.
These changes were inspired by a global review of weight, systems
integration, maintainability and ease of manufacture, and of the many
constructive comments received from airlines.

The brand new A350 XWB cabin mock-up was showcased, with attendees
being able to savour the light, bright, spacious interior of the Xtra Wide
Body fuselage."

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 08:43:23 and read 7286 times.

Cool...what are the specs for performance, weights and range? How do they compare with the 777 and the 787? Maybe they've been posted here but I didn't see them.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Khobar
Posted 2007-11-19 08:59:44 and read 7157 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
Are we allowed to make the claim "they're only selling because they're giving them away for free!" then, a remark which has been thrown all too easily to Airbus in the past by some Boeing fan-boys?
stirthepot

Scbriml is not a Boeing fan-boy.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be?

LOL.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 55):
In the end - I think the entire concept of an upgraded 777 series (of any model) will depend on what engines can be provided for it. GE or perhaps RR will be a major player in this concept. How much money is it worth developing an engine and what are the potential sales.

Boeing is working to produce cold-cured CFRP fuselage sections, Or, if that doesn't work out, imagine a 777 skinned with that "new" material similar to GLARE?

CFRP offers weight savings of about 20% over aluminum for the 787in current form. GLARE supposedly offers 15-30% weight savings over aluminum - why Airbus abandoned GLARE in favor of CFRP I don't know given all the bad press CFRP has gotten here. This new material similar to GLARE also has significant advantages over CFRP so I imagine we'll be seeing it soon.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2007-11-19 09:47:10 and read 6990 times.



Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 36):
Whereas Airbus has a very healthy order book indeed, I would suggest that their finances do not support them starting another clean sheet aircraft in the near future. 380 investment and delays have taken their toll financially in the short term, and sloe producton rates for the first two years will not help. "Power 8" restructuring will be expensive, and at the moment the 350 is costing them a lot of development money but not bringing in any revenue to speak of.

Boeing, on the other hand, is in a better position to commit to a new design once the 787 is going out the door in numbers, which will be much sooner than the 350.

This is something that gets short shrift too often on this forum-developing an airliner is a monstrously expensive undertaking and right now Boeing is in much better financial shape to undertake new projects. It is still not clear where Airbus will get the money to develop the A350, while Boeing is likely to have plenty of cash coming in as 787 deliveries ramp up to undertake their next project.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):

I should propose deletion, but then I won't because you are actually underscoring my point: the A350 is a HUGE problem to both Boeing's mid-size AND upper-size products and there isn't a cheap nor quick fix solution to it.

The A350 is ideally sized to take the maximum sales in the short term, but long term I believe Boeing has the better strategy. If Airbus had merely answered the 787 with a similar sized aircraft it would have had a hard time gaining sales, as it wouldn't be available for some time. By aiming more at the 777 they are gaining sales at the 777's expense, but the volume here is less than for the 787. When Boeing does launch Y1 and Y3 they will have a well balanced family, while Airbus will find it more difficult to offer a complete family around the A350 with only three base models. This is because when Boeing launched the 787 it was part of a well thought out long term strategy while the A350 was a reaction to one member of that family.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 50):

You may think that indeed, fact is that UNLESS Boeing does something drastic to the 777, the 787 will be Boeing's biggest product of any significance as from mid next decade!

True, but that will only be a short term problem. Y3 will reverse that situation with a vengeance.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-11-19 09:48:08 and read 6991 times.



Quoting Airbuske (Reply 12):
Okay so I made some rough calculations for my own comparison. I don't claim that they are precise or accurate.

As pointed out, thanks for the effort, but the numbers are wrong. Maybe you can correct them? Since we don't know the max range and MTOW (max payload) of the A350, but we do know the max range at MTOW (fuel limited, max pax only) of the 777s, you can put in that data.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 28):
All XXNGs planes failed

Except when they don't.

You mention the 737, but it was NG twice. 737-300/400/500 and then 737NG.

Then there's the MD80 family, which was the DC9 NG with new engines, 50% larger, new wing, etc.

Can't forget the 744. That was a huge success as a NG model.

The blanket claim that NG fail doesn't hold. It all depends on the market, the amount of work done to make it competitive, etc.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 is not going to burn 20% less than the A330. Boeing never said that, nor will it be reality. If it were, sales of A330s would have almost dried up despite the need for lift.

It's 20% better than the 767, not the A330.

And the A350 won't be 20% better than the 777NG family. Maybe the 777A or 77E, but I doubt that.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 49):
I'm wondering something else about a potential 777NG, though. Would it be possible for Boeing to make the walls just a couple inches thinner on each side, in order to allow for 17.2" 10-abreast seating?

This is the key. This is what is going to happen, and this is why the 777 will miraculously be able to compete again (with other changes of course).

One inch from each sidewall at key areas will allow for 17.2" seating. Boeing already knows they can do this without impacting interior noise by changing aspects of the engines including liners and chevrons. Though customers don't prefer 17.2" seats, airlines do. It's one reason the 787 is taking off, and the A350X is now selling well. One reason the "warmed over A330" didn't work was that it couldn't do this. 9Y was something like 16.5".

So expect that if Boeing goes forward, the 777NG will have new, lower noise higher efficiency engines, new interior with 10Y 17.2" seating, modified wing similar to what they've done on the 748, larger windows (who cares?) and higher use of lighter composites in places further from the CG to reduce moment, meaning less overall structure required and less weight. You may also see the plane be sized differently. And since it's now a 10Y plane, it will be marketed as 320 seats and 385 seats.

The economics of the 777 change when it's a 10Y plane. Add to that

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-11-19 10:19:47 and read 6919 times.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):

And the A350 won't be 20% better than the 777NG family. Maybe the 777A or 77E, but I doubt that.

They did not say block fuel, they said A350-900 (314 seats) 30% better per seat than the 772ER (301 seats), and the 350-1000 (350 seats) 25% better than the 773ER (365 seats).

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-19 10:26:02 and read 6904 times.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 60):
It is still not clear where Airbus will get the money to develop the A350, while Boeing is likely to have plenty of cash coming in as 787 deliveries ramp up to undertake their next project.

Airbus will likely be pushing 500 delivers per annum within the next 24 months. That is going to be a huge influx of money that can be applied to fund development and initial production of the A350.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Jwenting
Posted 2007-11-19 10:29:35 and read 6886 times.

777 sales to date: several hundred
A350 sales to date: a handful.

Sounds to me it's quite competitive already  Smile

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Rheinbote
Posted 2007-11-19 11:30:01 and read 6722 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
Airbus will likely be pushing 500 delivers per annum within the next 24 months. That is going to be a huge influx of money that can be applied to fund development and initial production of the A350.

...if there were no cash drains like A400M and A380 gobbling up whatever is left of the margin at the current dollar exchange rate. Hopefully the situation is going to improve within the next 24 months.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):
One inch from each sidewall at key areas will allow for 17.2" seating. Boeing already knows they can do this without impacting interior noise by changing aspects of the engines including liners and chevrons. Though customers don't prefer 17.2" seats, airlines do.

Now that's interesting  scratchchin 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 16:33:47 and read 6407 times.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):
The economics of the 777 change when it's a 10Y plane. Add to that

It already is a 10y plane. Just look at the EK seating chart. In 2 class configuration, they already cram over 400 pax onto their 77W.

http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Emi...Airlines_Boeing_777-300_2class.php

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Airbuske
Posted 2007-11-19 16:57:38 and read 6360 times.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):
One inch from each sidewall at key areas will allow for 17.2" seating. Boeing already knows they can do this without impacting interior noise by changing aspects of the engines including liners and chevrons. Though customers don't prefer 17.2" seats, airlines do.

Isn't Boeing offering the 777 as a 10Y already?

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/777family/pf/pf_cross_sections.html

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2007-11-19 17:05:06 and read 6342 times.



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
And it is wider, which allows 10-abreast Economy and 7-abreast Business seating for fitting more passengers in similar physical seat comfort to the A350.

FWIW, returning to a theme of "premium" economy, and "normal" economy flexibility, ie, c 18" and c. 17" seat width, the 777 has a specific advantage, which IMO is one of the primary reasons the 744 has been killed off - the 777 pretty much offers the same flexibility.
(also IMO, this is a prime factor in recent orders going A380 rather than 748i)

The big question is, will it offer something the A350 won't in that respect, and the answer is "quite possiby".
Will that be enough to compete with the A350's "better" effeciency?
Who knows?

Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787

Following on from above, this is because it doesn't offer an advantage in seat layout relative to the 787 with which to offset the latter's better efficiency. In fact, the reverse is generally true.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

My  twocents  answer to that is pretty much explained above....

Regards

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 18:02:43 and read 6261 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

Given the similarity in the above relationships, one can infer that the "refreshed 777" going against the A350 will meet the same fate as the "refreshed A330" met against the 787. So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

The 787 isn't 20% better than the A330, that's where this line of reasoning comes apart. The composites vs. aluminum is something of a red herring as far as fuel consumption goes. We should all recall that Airbus was claiming those performance figures for the A350 when it was still a metal airplane.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire usefull life.

It didn't shatter squat. Do you honestly think that Boeing thought Airbus would just ignore them for the entire time it took them to roll out the Y airplane (or whatever they decide on)? Boeing knew full well that Airbus would continue to generate competitive aircraft aimed that the weak spots in the Boeing product line. The original Boeing plan is still as good as it was before; the fact that Airbus is admirably rising to the challenge is to be expected and it shouldn't have surprised anyone, least of all Boeing.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 46):
Hybrids are lighter and stronger than composites, easier to manufacture, with similar fatigue properties

If that's the case, why are we going to CFRP across the board instead of hybrids? Airbus actually dropped GLARE in favour of CFRP for the A350.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 49):
Would it be possible for Boeing to make the walls just a couple inches thinner on each side, in order to allow for 17.2" 10-abreast seating?

I'm pretty sure this is physically impossible. There is very very little empty space in the sidewalls at the seat level. Those inward dents between the windows are there so that the sidewall will clear the fuselage frames. To shave a couple of inches off would mean effectively zero insulation over the frames, plus shrinking the frames (very difficult) or expanding the fuselage (even more difficult).

Quoting Khobar (Reply 59):

CFRP offers weight savings of about 20% over aluminum for the 787in current form.

I'm pretty sure a big chunk of that weight savings came from going to barrels, which isn't CFRP specific.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Revelation
Posted 2007-11-19 19:56:25 and read 6127 times.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The last minute decision from Airbus NOT to go ahead with the original A330-based A350 and NOT to fight head on with the 787 after all, but rather come with a larger all new plane aiming right in between the 787 and 777 proofs to be a very good one and gives Boeing a very very though nut to crack, putting them in a catch 22 situation:

The A350 was always going to be a bigger plane than the 787. Just re-read this forum where Clickhappy posted his tables: the only way the A350 was going to be efficient enough to compete with the 787 was to carry more pax. Every number from Airbus showed a larger plane than the 787-8. So, stop with the talk of Airbus's brilliant change of mind.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be? Currently you don't hear of them no more, do you? That's because they are trying to figure out just how and at what price they can come with a larger model of the 787 which can be competitive to the A350.

With ~800 orders in the books without offering the -10, I do not think they are worried. If I was Airbus, I'd be worried that the ~200 orders I have are more or less the same ones as I had for the A350-not-XWB.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
2- the XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned, something which is extremely inconvenient, as Boeing wanted to focus on their 737 replacement during that time period.

It's all about replacement cycles. Both A and B see the 767/A330 replacement cycle is in full gear now. The one that was before it was the DC10/L1011 cycle that was covered so well by the 777. The next big replacement cycle is MD-8x/older A320s/older 737NGs/etc that will be covered so well by Y1. How will Airbus be able to match it when they have the A380 millstone around their neck, and the A350 forcing its way out of the womb?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 48):
..after it has sold over 1100 frames??

 checkmark 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Zeke
Posted 2007-11-19 20:18:35 and read 6101 times.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):
The economics of the 777 change when it's a 10Y plane. Add to that

Dont forget Air Caraibes is talking with Airbus about 10Y on the A350XWB as well, they want 450 pax in a A350-1000.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 69):

If that's the case, why are we going to CFRP across the board instead of hybrids? Airbus actually dropped GLARE in favour of CFRP for the A350.

GLARE is like a first generation hybrid, the newer versions like CentrAl have only been coming out this year in conference papers, it is being touted as being 20% lighter than CFRP for wing construction

http://www.spacemart.com/reports/New...ings_Could_Save_Billions_999.html.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: RIX
Posted 2007-11-19 20:58:16 and read 6040 times.

I tend to agree that 777NG will get a good chance if capacity increased - a twin in a seat range of 744 will be quite attractive: 35A is too small (and possible 35B is way too far away, and still smaller), 748 is a quad, 380 is way too big. But then it's not "777NG vs 350", it's 777NG having no competitor. Another question is whether the market is there. But, again, "748-ization" of 777 may very well work if it goes to it's own league (something 330NG could not do, to answer the "how 777NG would work while 330NG would not" question). With moderate upgrades and possibly yet another slight stretch, it can serve very well as interim (pre-Y3) solution.

As for "... competitive with the 350":

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 33):
So I think the best way to deal with the situation is do what the Irish dude said :

Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
Bring on the 787HGW!

- me third here. 787 is by far the most ready airframe to go head-to-head vs 350. Of course, new wing and center box, and a lot of other things, a very serious investment - and a great product as a logical development of a family. "Light" 78A will perfectly work itself, but I don't see how the most advanced subsonic passenger airframe ever built may not be the best way to address competition in a market segment next to its current one. Especially as by the time it comes to develop 787HGW, both specification of competition and priceless own operation experience will be there.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2007-11-19 21:48:03 and read 6008 times.



Quoting Zeke (Reply 46):
The 789 will burn about 15% less fuel than an A332 with the same number of passengers onboard in 3 class config (250-260 pax) over about 6000 nm

Odd... under those conditions, my models indicate closer to 20% less... ~77 metric tons for the A332 vs. ~63 tons for the 789. At 15%, the payload range numbers don't close with published specs. Am I not in the ballpark?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 58):
Cool...what are the specs for performance, weights and range? How do they compare with the 777 and the 787? Maybe they've been posted here but I didn't see them.

Here's how they all stack up against each other, if you believe the published specs.

Big version: Width: 1512 Height: 904 File size: 164kb


Two caveats about this chart-- since I made it, the 787 has moved a shade to the left due to some OEW growth. Also, the fuel burn numbers should not be compared at different ranges (since they depend so strongly on range)

Quoting Khobar (Reply 59):
CFRP offers weight savings of about 20% over aluminum for the 787in current form.

Over a hypothetical aluminum 787, or what? Reality check: the 788 weighs significantly more per seat than a good ol' fashioned 763ER. Granted, it has longer and thinner wings that would be hard to build so efficiently out of aluminum. But the knee-jerk notion that CFRP structures are 20% lighter than aluminum is not borne out by any specs I've come across.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 60):
Y3 will reverse that situation with a vengeance.

If Y3 is a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings, I think you'll be proven wrong. The game can only be changed so many times, and a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings would not be changing the game very much.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 69):
The 787 isn't 20% better than the A330, that's where this line of reasoning comes apart.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 61):
The 787 is not going to burn 20% less than the A330. Boeing never said that, nor will it be reality. If it were, sales of A330s would have almost dried up despite the need for lift.

It's 20% better than the 767, not the A330.

And the A350 won't be 20% better than the 777NG family. Maybe the 777A or 77E, but I doubt that.

I'm not saying A or B said anything about each other's products. I compared them myself, and that's the story my numbers tell. If you can provide an analysis that contradict my results, I will be happy to recalibrate my models. (which, truth be told, are somewhat crude first-order models)

The A332 provides only a few percent better fuel burn than the 763ER, and as noted above, the difference between the 788/789 and A332 is closer to 20% than you might think.

At 6000 nm with equal pax payload, my Breguet models indicate that the A359 will burn ~20% less than the 772ER, the A359R ~19% less than the 772LR, and the A3510 ~23% less than the 773ER.

Big version: Width: 889 Height: 630 File size: 98kb


So I stand by my original point that from the standpoint of fuel burn, it's a very similar situation. That the A330 hasn't died in the face of the 787 bodes well for the future of the 777, as the A350 nears EIS.

Error bars on all my fuel burn figures are probably two or three percent.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 69):
The composites vs. aluminum is something of a red herring as far as fuel consumption goes.

 checkmark  but it reportedly has significant advantages in manufacturing and maintenance costs.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-19 22:19:47 and read 5934 times.



Quoting Zeke (Reply 71):
Dont forget Air Caraibes is talking with Airbus about 10Y on the A350XWB as well, they want 450 pax in a A350-1000.

Yes, but they are a charter company. If SQ tried to go 10Y in Economy there would be riots.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2007-11-19 23:14:02 and read 5882 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
The A332 provides only a few percent better fuel burn than the 763ER, and as noted above, the difference between the 788/789 and A332 is closer to 20% than you might think.

 footinmouth  thanks to Zeke for helping me identify the flaw in my model... I seem to have some bad specs on the A330, possibly related to a mixup between 'typical' and 'brochure' OEW values. For example, the Airbus website says the A332 weighs 119.6 metric tons, but their ACAP document says it weighs a shade over 106 tons. I must admit I'm a bit confused at the moment. When I sort out this mess I'll amend my post... in the meantime consider anything I said about the A332 to be suspect.  blush 

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-19 23:18:40 and read 5943 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):

So what are the relative weights of the compared aircraft?

How much of the relative savings come from;

-Lighter weight/per pax
-More efficient engines
-Improved aerodynamics?

Since both manufacturers have stated that CFRP advantages have more to do with manufacturing/repair efficiencies than weight savings, we shouldn't expect a significant weight difference for similar sized aircraft of different construction.

It's a given that more efficient engines can be hung on the 777, (how much more efficient is the question). Some aerodynamic efficiencies can be eked out of the, already very efficient, wing, (a 777 was/is the test bed for 787 aerodynamic software/devices).

One advantage the 777 will always have is the fuse cross section. You can have either very comfortable 9 across or acceptable 10 across, which the 350 could never deliver, while the 787 fuse can scale up to match the 350. The 777 has long been paid for and in the black so every new one is gravy.

Even with all this, the work to improve the 777 is considerable. I reckon that they'll first focus on goodies that can be used to make new models more competitive which can also be added to older models as a mid-service upgrade, such as engines/aero bits.

Or they may just scrap the whole thing. That's the thing about speculation; there are no absolutes...just guesses until real data is presented.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2007-11-20 03:42:12 and read 5817 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
If Y3 is a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings, I think you'll be proven wrong. The game can only be changed so many times, and a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings would not be changing the game very much.

Perhaps I overstated a bit; but I would expect that Y3 will be larger than the A350, and even with equivalent technology will be more efficient. Being designed 8-10 years later will also give it the advantage of being able to take advantage of new developments (especially if they do perfect cold-curing CFRP) and thus should be able to gain more efficiency. The point is that Y3 will in all likelihood be somewhat more efficient than the A350, will probably offer longer range, and will undoubtedly be barrel construction, which will offer maintenance savings. It will also offer better CASM than the A380, even though it will not be as large. The A350 and A380 will of course still sell, as Boeing's advantage will not be overwhelming; but Boeing will be in a much better position.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-11-20 04:22:35 and read 5770 times.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 77):
Being designed 8-10 years later will also give it the advantage of being able to take advantage of new developments

So you expect Boeing to do a Y3, but with EIS to be around 2020?

What seating capacity do you think they'll go for?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: EI321
Posted 2007-11-20 04:36:25 and read 5736 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 78):
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 77):
Being designed 8-10 years later will also give it the advantage of being able to take advantage of new developments

So you expect Boeing to do a Y3, but with EIS to be around 2020?

What seating capacity do you think they'll go for?

There will be a larger aircraft than the current aircraft models, thats for sure. I think its possible that the basic 787 barrell section could be used on Y3, up to 400 seats

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-20 06:31:05 and read 5633 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
If Y3 is a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings, I think you'll be proven wrong. The game can only be changed so many times, and a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings would not be changing the game very much.

Don't tell Airbus that in regards to the A350 vs the 777.  Wink

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: EI321
Posted 2007-11-20 07:08:20 and read 5558 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 80):
Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
If Y3 is a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings, I think you'll be proven wrong. The game can only be changed so many times, and a twin-engine CFRP tube with wings would not be changing the game very much.

Don't tell Airbus that in regards to the A350 vs the 777.

The A350 is no game changer thats for sure. What is the definition of a gamechanger anyway?  Smile

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-20 07:22:48 and read 5529 times.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 81):
The A350 is no game changer thats for sure. What is the definition of a gamechanger anyway? Smile

I checked the dictionary...there isn't one.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: 474218
Posted 2007-11-20 08:27:32 and read 5450 times.

The title of this fourm has me really confused: "CAN BOEING MAKE THE 777 COMPETIVE WIT THE A350".

As far as I know the 777 is currently flying and the A350 is still in the design stages, so it is Airbus that has the design the A350 to be competive with the 777 not the other way around.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Flipdewaf
Posted 2007-11-20 09:20:37 and read 5383 times.

If boeing update the 777 now whats to stop the A350 being upgraded in 5years after EIS and then taking everything back again? Personally I think that

Quoting 474218 (Reply 83):

Good point! the A350 hasnt even flown yet, maybe it'll be rubbish or maybe it'l be the dogs b*****ks. Personally i think the A350 will be as good as airbus are saying is going to be (technically wise) and maybe a smidge better. All this talk of how boeing will produce the aircraft to replace the 777 and then be more efficient than the A350 but that doesn't mean boeing will have the best planes on the market. Its swings and roundabouts and it wouldn't surprise me if airbus made a 150-270 seat plane that gave a huge advantage to them. The 787 tech will become old one day too. Dont expect either manufacturer to be on top with both classes of aircraft for any significant time, the development time is too long and costly for that too happen.

Fred

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Khobar
Posted 2007-11-20 09:30:39 and read 5360 times.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 69):
I'm pretty sure a big chunk of that weight savings came from going to barrels, which isn't CFRP specific.

The info I was looking at was specific to CFRP. Other materials offer differing savings.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
Over a hypothetical aluminum 787, or what? Reality check: the 788 weighs significantly more per seat than a good ol' fashioned 763ER. Granted, it has longer and thinner wings that would be hard to build so efficiently out of aluminum. But the knee-jerk notion that CFRP structures are 20% lighter than aluminum is not borne out by any specs I've come across.

CFRP 787 versus aluminum 787.

I don't know why you can't find any specs on the matter:

"All-CFRP beams have the lowest weight for a desired stiffness or strength, providing up to nearly 70% weight saving compared to aluminum beams. Hybrid beams are slightly heavier than all-composite beams, with up to 56% weight saving compared to aluminum, but they are easier and less expensive to produce." A Comparative Study of the Mechanical Performance and Cost of Metal, FRP, and Hybrid Beams, Applied Composite Materials, Vol. 5, Number 3, May, 1998.

"Advanced CFRP composites were considered for this application to have positive benefits in terms of improved durability, non-susceptibility to corrosion, and a 20% to 30% weight savings as compared to conventional aluminum structure." CFRP Horizontal Stabilizer Development Test Program, Junji Takaki, Junichi Kimura ((Aerospace Division, Fuji Heavy Industries), Jeffry K. Berner (BCAC), Makoto Hirahara, Akikazu Yahata (Japan Aircraft Development Corp.).

"A prototype Boeing 737-200 graphite/epoxy stabilizer built as part of the NASA Aircraft Energy Efficiency (ACEE) program initiated in July 1977 is the subject of this investigation. The purpose of the prototype program was to challenge aircraft manufacturers to redesign existing aircraft components using lighter graphite/epoxy composites to reduce structural weight for fuel efficiency. Boeing manufactured and certified five shipsets in August 1982. These structures achieved 21.6% weight savings compared to their metal counterparts. Three shipsets have been retired and two are still in local service with a United States airline." Aging Effects Evaluation of a Decommissioned Boeing CFRP 737-200 Horizontal Stabilizer (Phase II) - Lamia Salah and John Tomblin (National Institute for Aviation Research), Curtis Davies (FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center).

I don't doubt that there are examples where the weight savings are less than 20%-30%, but there are specific, physical examples where the weight savings are as advertised.

So, why does an empty 787 weight 152,000lbs more than an empty 767-300ER? (or are my numbers wrong?)

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-20 09:58:55 and read 5297 times.



Quoting Khobar (Reply 85):
So, why does an empty 787 weight 152,000lbs more than an empty 767-300ER?

It's about 40,000 pounds (for a 787-8 compared to a 767-300ER).

And considering the 787-8 is a much larger plane physically, that is not surprising. Even if the raw frame weighs less, the extra seats and lavs and larger galleys and deeper bins and larger and heavier engines and the extra fluids alone will add significant weight.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Parapente
Posted 2007-11-20 10:12:41 and read 5255 times.

these posts have the key answer.....I believe


Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 49):
I'm wondering something else about a potential 777NG, though. Would it be possible for Boeing to make the walls just a couple inches thinner on each side, in order to allow for 17.2" 10-abreast seating?

This is the key. This is what is going to happen, and this is why the 777 will miraculously be able to compete again (with other changes of course).

One inch from each sidewall at key areas will allow for 17.2" seating. Boeing already knows they can do this without impacting interior noise by changing aspects of the engines including liners and chevrons. Though customers don't prefer 17.2" seats, airlines do. It's one reason the 787 is taking off, and the A350X is now selling well. One reason the "warmed over A330" didn't work was that it couldn't do this. 9Y was something like 16.5".

So expect that if Boeing goes forward, the 777NG will have new, lower noise higher efficiency engines, new interior with 10Y 17.2" seating, modified wing similar to what they've done on the 748, larger windows (who cares?) and higher use of lighter composites in places further from the CG to reduce moment, meaning less overall structure required and less weight. You may also see the plane be sized differently. And since it's now a 10Y plane, it will be marketed as 320 seats and 385 seats.

The economics of the 777 change when it's a 10Y plane. Add to that.

This is the sort of improvement that I believe BA was hinting at a month ago. However another post in this thread stated that the wing area on the 350 suggested (to him) that an 1100 was possible. Well yes maybe. But with 77W range? I think not. I do however believe that when (not if) this 77W improvement takes place the 748i will be "deader than a dead thing on a dead day"-hence the flood of orders - not. If BA says that it is waiting to see what the revised 77-300er will be like -you can be sure that other airlines will be listening (At 100$ a barrel)!

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Ikramerica
Posted 2007-11-20 10:17:49 and read 5248 times.



Quoting Parapente (Reply 87):
these posts have the key answer.....I believe

I said 1/2 of that. Credit where credit is due?  Wink

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Khobar
Posted 2007-11-20 10:17:51 and read 5251 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 86):
It's about 40,000 pounds (for a 787-8 compared to a 767-300ER).

And considering the 787-8 is a much larger plane physically, that is not surprising. Even if the raw frame weighs less, the extra seats and lavs and larger galleys and deeper bins and larger and heavier engines and the extra fluids alone will add significant weight.

Thank you Stitch.

I got 198,000 lbs for the 767-300ER (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_767)
I see 242,000 lbs for the 787-8 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787)
and 252,000 lbs for the 787-8 from Boeing (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/acaps/787sec2.pdf)

I was going by the Zero Fuel Weight for the 787 for the 345,000lbs. - oops!

The 787-8 carries about 9,500 gal more fuel (33,500USG vs. 23,980USG ) and can accommodate up to 375 pax. as opposed to a max. of 350 for the 300ER, and fly up to 8200NM versus 5975NM.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2007-11-20 16:13:32 and read 5014 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 78):

So you expect Boeing to do a Y3, but with EIS to be around 2020?

What seating capacity do you think they'll go for?

Yes, I do. I expect it to start about 50 seats above the 787-10 and extend up to 450 or possibly 500 seats. I'm totally guessing as to size, but I'm convinced they'll build it. Since the consensus I have sensed is that 150,000 lbs thrust is about the practical limit with known technology I expect it to be sized to use two engines of about that thrust.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-11-20 16:27:32 and read 4999 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 86):
It's about 40,000 pounds (for a 787-8 compared to a 767-300ER).

I suspect the 787's engines are significantly heavier than the 767's, so that would account for a chunk of the additional weight.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2007-11-20 16:37:48 and read 4977 times.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 90):
I expect it to start about 50 seats above the 787-10 and extend up to 450 or possibly 500 seats.

You see, I'm very sceptical that Boeing would invest something probably approaching $15billion for an all new plane in that space (well, certainly the top-end of it). Especially as they have a new plane there that hasn't even begun construction yet!

One of the main reasons I'm sceptical is that Boeing has sold less than 30 planes bigger than a 77W in the last 5 years*. I don't think they really believe the market is big enough.


*I'm only talking about airline pax sales here.

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-20 17:02:54 and read 4932 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 92):
You see, I'm very skeptical that Boeing would invest something probably approaching $15billion for an all new plane in that space (well, certainly the top-end of it).

Agreed. I'm thinking 350 for the Y3-100 and 400 for the Y3-200. Then Boeing could put in a Y3-300 that would do around 425 if the market demanded it. A 300 seat 787-10 that could do all current A330-300 and 777-200 missions plus many A340-300 and 777-200ER missions would then anchor the bottom end.

Such a line-up would pincer the A350-800 between the 787-9 and 787-10. It would also pincer the A350-900 between the 787-10 and the Y3-100 and the A350-1000 between the Y3-100 and the Y3-200.

The A350-800 would likely have the least sales of the family because it is both a shrink and the 787-8 and 787-9 offer a nice combination with more flexibility and capability together then the A350-800 can offer on it's own. But by placing plenty of 77Ws in the next five years and offering Y3 in ten, that would leave the A350-1000 with only a five-year window, maximum, to gain sales. And depending on how early Boeing starts shopping the Y3, they could get many customers to wait for it, as Airbus was able to do with the A350XWB.

That leaves the A350-900 to score what sales it can get in the interim as a 777-200ER and A340-300 replacement. It can do quite well in that area, but overall, Boeing might very well be able to keep the entire A350 family within 1000-2000 sales which, while not bad, isn't going to look so good against the 777, the 787, and Y3 each doing that...

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2007-11-20 17:48:51 and read 4903 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 93):
Such a line-up would pincer the A350-800 between the 787-9 and 787-10. It would also pincer the A350-900 between the 787-10 and the Y3-100 and the A350-1000 between the Y3-100 and the Y3-200.

To be fair, all this talk of 787-10, Y3-100 and Y3-200 leaves out another likely airplane... a big twin, with a wing area about the same as the 773ER, MTOW about the same as the 773ER, range about the same as the 773ER, and 385 pax / 450 pax in 3 / 2 class configs.

Allow me to introduce the A350-1100.  Big grin

Which ones does that pincer?

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A
Username: Stitch
Posted 2007-11-20 19:53:34 and read 4805 times.



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 94):
Allow me to introduce the A350-1100. Big grin

Which ones does that pincer?

Depends how well it can operate in existing airport infrastructure with an 80m length...

But Boeing could also launch a longer Y3-300, as well, to pincer it.  Smile

Topic: RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2007-11-20 22:35:06 and read 4714 times.

Regardless if it's possible for the 777 to be competitive with the 350, the advantage of being a 10y plane at least makes it worthwhile to look at. It's too bad that these guys take so durned long to make up their minds, eh...? You'd think Boeing and Airbus would post here and ask for our opinions more often...

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 94):

Allow me to introduce the A350-1100.

If only such a plane was available...oh yah...it's called the 777ER.


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