We all know what's going on: capacity and frequency being drastically reduced, fares going up like crazy both domestically and international ( with lousy service in return ), premium cabins full of beer-guzzling upgrades or non-revers, etc. Some of the most severe reductions are occurring at low-yielding tourist destinations like MCO and LAS, or ethnic ones like SJU.

Will all of this lead to a revival of the charter industry, along the model of what ATA was in its prime? The cruise industry may no longer be able to depend on available space on scheduled carriers, and may not attract passengers if the plane ticket costs more than the boat. LAS and MCO will suffer if people can't get there cheaply, and so will probably Hawaii and Mexico.

Not only should charter operators be able to offer lower fares on fully sold airplanes, their fleets also don't depend on full utilization like a brand-new Boeing or Airbus, for profitability. Labor costs also tend to be less. Who stands to benefit from these trends? Allegiant, Miami Air, North American? Will new ones be created with all of the older planes becoming available from the majors and LCCs? I believe its an area to be watched in the years ahead if oil stays high.

I think this will help them. They are able to pass the fuel to the customer instead of paying for it. Also with United and CAL getting rid if the 737-300's and -500's cheaper airframes a re available so they can upgrade their fleet. Don't think you will see many do Schedule charters like in the past but like you said the tour operators might come back to them. Right now the charter airlines in the US is North America, World, Pace, Ruboloff, Primaris, Extra Airways, Sky King, Jet Express, Swift, and ADI that I can think off the top of my head. Some might fold but alot more will surivive.

European charter carriers have been surviving for 40+ years stuffing max number of pax into planes with seats spaced @ 28 inches.

235 seats in a B752 is pretty economical, but will our US friends embrace this concept?

The charter business is thriving in Europe again, as many customers found that buying LCC airfares and hotel rooms turned out to be more expensive than booking an inclusive tour holiday, so now they're back to inclusive tour holidays again...

An interesting possibility. For the USA and Canada, especially for package vacations to the mainly tourist areas of the Caribbean, Mexico as well as hook ups for cruises out of Miami for example. The legacy airlines may not have enough space or at the right fares to handle peak vacation times so charters may have to be run to make sure package companies can get customer at the right prices and there in timely fashion. The majors are also dumping a lot of low yield/high demand destinations like Orlando, so perhaps charters could gain their too.

Another factor that probably will help the charter industry is the reductions we will be seeing in point-to-point traffic by the scheduled carriers. People want to avoid hubs if possible and want their luggage to be there when arriving. Allegiant's business model is making more and more sense and other charters will take lessons from that.