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Topic: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: LAXDESI
Posted 2008-06-20 21:27:46 and read 5757 times.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...o_New_York/articleshow/3145760.cms
I have seen posts suggesting that AA, CO, and DL non-stop flights are all doing well. Can anyone with reliable information confirm the profitability of these flights.

AI should consider dropping or reducing frequencies on some of their one-stop flights to NYC area. There is just too much capacity on India-NYC sectors, and demand is likely to drop further if airlines started charging fares at which these routes will be profitable.

Quotes:
Surging air turbine fuel prices and mounting losses may compel Air India to reduce the frequency some of its international flights including its recently-introduced New York flights from both Mumbai and Delhi. The matter was understood to have been discussed at a meeting of senior Air India officials recently.

"The meeting discussed the issue of reducing the frequency of some of our flights, including the Delhi-New York and Mumbai-New York non-stop services. However, due to divergent views, no final call was taken," an Air India official told PTI today on strict condition of anonymity.

According to the official, one of the proposals discussed was to cut the New York flights by half from both the destinations. Currently, there are seven flights a week from each destination.

Apart from high operational costs, the load factor on both the routes is also understood to be below the air-carrier's expectations. "This is also weighing on the minds of the management," the official said.

The officials discussed reducing the flights to three from New Delhi and four from Mumbai in view of the not-so-encouraging load factor," he said. The airline is incurring losses to the tune of Rs 2.5 crore ($600,000) per day on each of its flights. The average load factor is understood to be in the range below average 40-56 per cent.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Nimish
Posted 2008-06-21 03:55:03 and read 5615 times.

IMO, AI should cut down on it's one stops to NYC, and instead focus only on the non-stop services. Move the a/c doing the one stops over to other cities in the US - say ORD, IAD, SFO etc.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: PanAm330
Posted 2008-06-21 07:02:10 and read 5499 times.

Nimish, I agree. Their non-stop can snag a revenue premium over the one-stop options like LH or BA, but they can still offer a few one-stops themselves to grab the more price-sensitive customers. AI really does have quite a few one-stop flights, and I agree that a few should be cut to boost numbers on the non-stops. I've read reports here on A.net and elsewhere suggesting just how great the non-stop product is, and it would be a shame to see AI have to cut those flights. Good luck AI!

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Behramjee
Posted 2008-06-21 10:11:36 and read 5380 times.

These load factors for their nonstop flights are totally un-acceptable for the huge investment that has gone into them.

To NYC (JFK+EWR), AI flies daily DEL-ATQ-LHR-JFK + daily DEL-JFK + daily BOM-CDG-EWR + daily BOM-JFK. Out of all these flights, only BOM-CDG-EWR is profitable where as the other 3 make big losses.

What should be done to attract premium traffic, is to reduce BOM-JFK to 3 weekly, DEL-JFK to 4 weekly and also fly BLR-JFK daily. In this way, the same 4 aircraft can be used for double daily nonstop India-JFK flights.

And if you want to get really radical and save on costs, then adopt the following measures:

DEL/ATQ/JFK - daily B 77W...LHR can easily support a terminator flight on its own.

BOM/EWR - 3 weekly nonstop B 77L...AI makes more $$$ and sees better loads at EWR than it does from JFK...plus wth CO joining STAR soon, more opportunities exist for feeder traffic from EWR than JFK which lacks sufficient STAR flights.

AMD/BOM/CDG/EWR - daily B 744

BLR/EWR - daily B 77L

DEL/IAD - 4 weekly nonstop B 77L...its a huge Star Alliance/UA hub hence vvv good opportunities exist for premium traffic.

Please remember that since AI launched JFK in 1966, it has NEVER EVER made $$$ flying the route...it has always made a loss every year. With EWR now becoming a STAR hub, greater opportunities exist there for the carrier than at JFK which is dominated by AA (OW) and Delta (Sky Team).

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: WindowSeat
Posted 2008-06-21 10:31:42 and read 5352 times.



Quoting Behramjee (Reply 3):
Out of all these flights, only BOM-CDG-EWR is profitable where as the other 3 make big losses.

The flight continues to AMD, which also has a big Gujrati community like New Jersey Big grin
Honestly, I've heard it being called the Gujrat Mail but nonetheless it makes money for AI

I think the biggest deterrent to AI's nonstops to JFK is connections beyond JFK. So I get to JFK on AI, then I have to haul my bags and myself to another terminal and check them again if I am going anywhere beyond JFK. With Delta at JFK, and Continental at EWR, at least it's the same terminal, baggage is easily rechecked and connecting flights are not too far away.

On the Indian side, if I'm flying anywhere other than Mumbai, I'd rather take a one stop connector to HYD, CCU, BLR, MAA etc on BA,AF,LH rather than go through the hassle of connecting in BOM or DEL.

Sorry, but those flights were only made for the O&D market, if AI thought they would target anyone else, it's going to prove difficult.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-21 12:20:34 and read 5266 times.

BOM-JFK was AI's first nonstop flight to US. And that was a big mistake. It never made sense back then and it does not now. They should have started BLR-SFO nonstop instead. Even BOM-ORD that would have been a better choice. Probably they can start a nonstop BOM-ORD instead of the onestop flight right now given that its Star Alliance hub and IT has already annouced plans for a BLR-SFO nonstop.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Cakentennis
Posted 2008-06-21 12:29:10 and read 5252 times.



Quoting WindowSeat (Reply 4):

The flight continues to AMD, which also has a big Gujrati community like New Jersey Big grin
Honestly, I've heard it being called the Gujrat Mail but nonetheless it makes money for AI

The Gujarat Express (18 hours flat, Newark-Apnu Amdavad). Taking it in December this year. Classic AI flight !  Big grin

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Flighty
Posted 2008-06-21 12:34:58 and read 5237 times.

Maybe both carriers can temporarily cooperate on JFK-BOM. They can fully code-share, building a mutual 7x schedule splitting the flying between them. This lets them both cover the market without burning so much fuel. Later, they can nix the alliance with no hard feelings.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Alitalia744
Posted 2008-06-21 14:20:12 and read 5152 times.



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I have seen posts suggesting that AA, CO, and DL non-stop flights are all doing well. Can anyone with reliable information confirm the profitability of these flights

DL is indeed doing well.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Lightsaber
Posted 2008-06-21 15:03:51 and read 5095 times.

I'm surprised to hear this. It was only about 3 months ago that my friends quieted down about the difficulty in procuring a J class seat to India (from the West Coast US, often via either Europe or US east coast airports). Does anyone have a link on the number of seats added into the market? Has J class demand/yield changed? (Note, I'm asking.)

Dare we wonder if EK's LAX-DXB or SFO-DXB is already being felt economically?  duck 

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
"The meeting discussed the issue of reducing the frequency of some of our flights, including the Delhi-New York and Mumbai-New York non-stop services. However, due to divergent views, no final call was taken," an Air India official told PTI today on strict condition of anonymity.

This sounds very "kind of, sort of, maybe" an answer. Are you sure that official wasn't a disgruntled ramper?  Wink

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 3):
To NYC (JFK+EWR), AI flies daily DEL-ATQ-LHR-JFK + daily DEL-JFK + daily BOM-CDG-EWR + daily BOM-JFK. Out of all these flights, only BOM-CDG-EWR is profitable where as the other 3 make big losses.

I'm surprised DEL-JFK isn't a money maker. That's not that big of a stretch. Somehow I'm not shocked that the DEL-ATQ-LHR-JFK doesn't make money. (Hint: I know people who have flown out of LAX or SFO to connect to this flight. Too many stops! Anything else will garner a premium.)

Quoting Manny (Reply 5):
They should have started BLR-SFO nonstop instead.

With what airframe? That's A345 or 77L territory. Its *just* too far for a 77W with any winds. DEL-JFK is a route that is 1200nm closer (6359nm vs. 7576nm per the great circle mapper). 6359nm is within 772ER or 77W range. (Note: 772ER's will be payload limited at times, but airlines have shown similar routes can be run with such equipment at a profit if the premium demand is there.)

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Jfk777
Posted 2008-06-21 15:17:45 and read 5078 times.

With Continental coming to the STAR alliance, Air India should take advantage of Newark and forget about its history at JFK. The flights to JFK via LHR have low fares on the LHR-JFK sector, they should be discontinued and use the LHR slots for more flights to India. Pehaps Bangalore to Newark could be started with the 77L planes and cordination with Continental on Delhi and Mumbai nonstops.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: OA412
Posted 2008-06-21 15:26:38 and read 5064 times.

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 8):
DL is indeed doing well.

IINM didn't DL confirm that the route was profitable within the first month of operation?

[Edited 2008-06-21 15:32:10]

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-21 18:42:22 and read 4956 times.



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 9):
With what airframe? That's A345 or 77L territory. Its *just* too far for a 77W with any winds.

AI started the BOM-JFK nonstop with 77L's. They are one of the few clients who have added 77L's in their fleet. And BLR-SFO is within reach of this air frame.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: LAXDESI
Posted 2008-06-21 18:46:32 and read 4949 times.



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
The average load factor is understood to be in the range below average 40-56 per cent.

For ULH flights to be profitable at today's fuel prices require high yields (premium fares X 75% load factor). I wonder if AI will ever achieve that even if its one-stop flight frequencies are reduced. Flying to EWR from BOM, and having an alliance with CO may help, but I don't see why CO would be interested in helping out AI.

For those interested in the economics of ULH flights, see my thread in technical forum with many examples of non-stop versus one-stop flights on many India-USA routes, including BLR-SFO.
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/tech_ops/read.main/230493/

Quoting WindowSeat (Reply 4):
I think the biggest deterrent to AI's nonstops to JFK is connections beyond JFK. So I get to JFK on AI, then I have to haul my bags and myself to another terminal and check them again if I am going anywhere beyond JFK. With Delta at JFK, and Continental at EWR, at least it's the same terminal, baggage is easily rechecked and connecting flights are not too far away.

 checkmark  I would even go further and say that for some, especially seniors, LAX-FRA-BOM is preferable to LAX-EWR-BOM. Double baggage handling is a deal breaker for many.

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 8):
Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I have seen posts suggesting that AA, CO, and DL non-stop flights are all doing well. Can anyone with reliable information confirm the profitability of these flights

DL is indeed doing well.

Good to know. I hope DL will consider adding JFK-DEL, which IMO is a better O&D route than EWR-DEL and ORD-DEL.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Alitalia744
Posted 2008-06-21 19:05:48 and read 4930 times.



Quoting OA412 (Reply 11):
IINM didn't DL confirm that the route was profitable within the first month of operation?

Yes and the ERs were op-ing with limited cargo carrying ability. The LRs are a dream on the route.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 13):
Good to know. I hope DL will consider adding JFK-DEL, which IMO is a better O&D route than EWR-DEL and ORD-DEL.

Given the traffic on the route (to DEL) it is probably being looked at...  Smile

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Lightsaber
Posted 2008-06-21 19:17:42 and read 4908 times.



Quoting Manny (Reply 12):

AI started the BOM-JFK nonstop with 77L's. They are one of the few clients who have added 77L's in their fleet. And BLR-SFO is within reach of this air frame.

Thank you. I forgot they had 77L's. So yes, BLR-SFO would have been a more profitable utilization of the airframes as you noted.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: CO 757-300
Posted 2008-06-21 21:10:41 and read 4665 times.

does emirates take a significant portion of traffic on NYC-India?
i thought i heard that something like 80% of the traffic of the EK flights continue to india/pakistan

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-22 01:42:31 and read 4519 times.



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 15):
Thank you. I forgot they had 77L's. So yes, BLR-SFO would have been a more profitable utilization of the airframes as you noted.

No probs.  Smile

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: PanAm330
Posted 2008-06-22 09:43:33 and read 4332 times.



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 13):
but I don't see why CO would be interested in helping out AI.

Are they both not in/going to soon be in Star Alliance? That should be reason enough.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Dennys
Posted 2008-06-22 12:51:24 and read 4229 times.

Anyway The 77L did not bring such a revolution in NSTP air services .

A345s will definitely keep flying for SIA between SIN and the US , 77L or not !

dennys

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Jr
Posted 2008-06-22 16:44:27 and read 4129 times.



Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 18):
Are they both not in/going to soon be in Star Alliance? That should be reason enough.

Is AI's inclusion to Star Alliance confirmed? If that is the case, I don't see why AI would want to keep flying into JFK. They should keep no more than their one flight via LHR and move the non stop flight to EWR. Hopefully they will adjust their BOM schedules to provide reasonable connections on the Indian side as well which seems to be perpetual hell for anyone that wants to go beyond BOM. I go as far as I can to avoid BOM (and even DEL) as I possibly can. They will hopefully move one of the non-stops to SFO and get a competitive edge on the route before IT starts service. Hopefully they'll do something soon that makes sound economic sense for a change...

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: LAXDESI
Posted 2008-06-26 10:14:25 and read 3891 times.

An article in TOI discussing aviation fuel prices in India, and how it is hurting non-stop flights, and how airlines may save a lot by making a technical stop.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/B...tanking_up/articleshow/3165915.cms

Quotes:
Since Indian aviation turbine fuel prices are among the highest in the world, airlines were asked to consider flying to some nearby countries by taking some expensive fuel from here and then tank up in those economic countries.

The places where airlines could consider taking a technical fuelling halt include the Gulf states, former CIS republics and Iran. Although foreign flights get aviation turbine fuel (ATF) much cheaper than domestic ones in India, the base price of ATF is also very high here because of which airlines are considering this option. But they are wary of how passengers used to direct flights to Europe and increasingly to US may react to these technical halts that may add up to two hours of flying time.

A leading airline official said a nonstop India-US flights with a flying time of 16 to 18 hours requires nearly 150 tonnes of fuel which in India costs over Rs 60 lakhs ($140,000). If the same plane goes via Dubai, it can do with nearly 16 tonnes of fuel from India at a cost of about Rs 8 lakhs($19,000). For the remaining 16-hour journey to US, the required 130-odd tonnes can be filled up in a place like Dubai for Rs 36 lakh($85,000). So the overall fuel cost is less by nearly Rs 16 lakh($37,000) on each India-US flight. Multiplying this by two to three daily nonstop flights that airlines are already having or planning, the savings are enormous though the flight does not remain nonstop because of the technical halt," said a senior official of a leading airline.

According to sources, India has fifth freedom agreements with most countries that airlines can consider for these fuelling halts that allow them to pick up passengers from there too. A

On an average, airlines pay about Rs 53,000 per kilolitre ATF for an international flight in India. In Bangkok, Singapore and Frankfurt, the same fuel is available for Rs 32,630, Rs 32,367

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-26 10:29:17 and read 3881 times.



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 21):
The places where airlines could consider taking a technical fuelling halt include the Gulf states, former CIS republics and Iran.

I do not think US will ever allow a nonstop from Iran. So that option is out of the window.

I wonder how the Middle Eastern countries react to Indian airlines getting cheap fuel on the go. But if Air India every has to do that they will loose the nonstop USP and then wonder why in the hell they ever orders 772LR's in the first place.

On the other hand another solution is that the Indian government wakes up and decides it should stop overtaxing ATF. If its approx 40% cheaper in different parts of the world like Frankfurt, Singapore & Bangkok why can't it be priced similarly in India. It might just be too simple a solution.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: PNQIAD
Posted 2008-06-26 10:39:16 and read 3861 times.

Considering they are erducing freq. on both non-stop India-NA routes - they could potentially add BOM-IAD and DEL-IAD (both 2 or 3 times a week). IAD being a big UA / *A hub - there could be a good feed in and out of IAD to other NA cities.....

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-26 10:47:47 and read 3854 times.



Quoting PNQIAD (Reply 23):
Considering they are erducing freq. on both non-stop India-NA routes - they could potentially add BOM-IAD and DEL-IAD (both 2 or 3 times a week). IAD being a big UA / *A hub - there could be a good feed in and out of IAD to other NA cities.....

But ORD would have more O&D potential specially to BOM. And ORD is also a Star hub.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Mk777
Posted 2008-06-26 10:54:54 and read 3834 times.

IMO, they should scrap the BOM/DEL-JFK non-stops. They currently have 5 77LR's. When is # 6 coming???

the 4 LR's from the aforementioned routes should be used to start BOM-ORD and DEL-IAD. Once they get #6, they can link BLR-SFO. By feeding to UA hubs, they can successfully offer flights to almost anywhere in US/canada and mexico.

However, if they think they really need non-stop to NY region, move the flights to EWR instead, once CO joins *A, they can also codeshare with them to NA cities beyond EWR.

my  twocents 

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: PNQIAD
Posted 2008-06-26 11:05:18 and read 3881 times.



Quoting Manny (Reply 24):
But ORD would have more O&D potential specially to BOM. And ORD is also a Star hub.

But ORD is already connected with a DEL non-stop by AA and AI serves ORD as well - IAD would give them a new destination and no competition. Also, I imagine there would be sufficient diplomatic + business + leisure traffic to make these viable out of IAD.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2008-06-26 11:19:56 and read 3857 times.

I think i posted a few weeks ago on this - I returned from India one month back and I had taken the AI 101/102 segments from JFK to DEL nonstop. There are some things that I personally think are playing into the poor loads:

1. Air India's reputation - people really do NOT look favorably upon the carrier, both in the U.S. and India. The service on this flight it phenomenal, no doubt, but only recently has Air India rolled out its premium 777's to JFK, and the memories of the awful 747 service has blightened its image.

2. Seasonal changes - traffic to/from India is MUCH lower in the summer months because of the intense heat. It was averaging 108 degrees in Delhi when I was there in mid-May. Air Canada had problems making their nonstop (and eventually even the direct service through ZRH) produce good results during the summer. The strength of demand varies porportionally with weather.

3. Competition and lack of good connections (as stated above). For as much as Air India was worth in cost savings, the trouble I went through from traveling from Dallas (and changing planes in LGA) through separate ticketing was miserable.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Manny
Posted 2008-06-26 12:13:46 and read 3797 times.



Quoting PNQIAD (Reply 26):
But ORD is already connected with a DEL non-stop by AA and AI serves ORD as well - IAD would give them a new destination and no competition. Also, I imagine there would be sufficient diplomatic + business + leisure traffic to make these viable out of IAD.

Heck i forgot to mention. I want one of the nonstops to be BLR-SFO.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: PNQIAD
Posted 2008-06-26 12:16:19 and read 3792 times.



Quoting Manny (Reply 28):
Heck i forgot to mention. I want one of the nonstops to be BLR-SFO.

That should also certainly be high on the list if GoI babus ever think sensibly.....

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: LAXDESI
Posted 2008-06-26 13:56:58 and read 3694 times.



Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 27):
1. Air India's reputation - people really do NOT look favorably upon the carrier, both in the U.S. and India. The service on this flight it phenomenal, no doubt, but only recently has Air India rolled out its premium 777's to JFK, and the memories of the awful 747 service has blightened its image.

 checkmark 
My wife refuses to fly AI due to numerous bad experiences in the past.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Nimish
Posted 2008-06-27 00:53:29 and read 3542 times.



Quoting Mk777 (Reply 25):
By feeding to UA hubs, they can successfully offer flights to almost anywhere in US/canada and mexico.

Let's not forget this is AI we're talking about. So while they may "want" to enter *A, they're not doing anything right along the way. Most carriers start off with strong code sharing deals with partners in *A, and then ease their way into the alliance. Knowing AI, they may join the alliance, but still not get into any kind of mutual arrangements with UA (because if they wanted to, they could do it right now or even months/years ago - aka QR as an example).

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Mk777
Posted 2008-06-27 05:58:23 and read 3462 times.



Quoting Nimish (Reply 31):
Let's not forget this is AI we're talking about.

So basically AI is doomed till the ATF prices stabilize...hehehe!!!
I think its sad that they don't apply any strategy to their route network and then carp about loads being poor and no money being earned....

I hope IT is taking a note of all this before it commences its long haul operation.

Topic: RE: AI To Reduce Frequencies On JFK-BOM/DEL Non-Stop?
Username: Freqflyer
Posted 2008-06-27 09:09:07 and read 3387 times.



Quoting Cakentennis (Reply 6):
Quoting WindowSeat (Reply 4):

The flight continues to AMD, which also has a big Gujrati community like New Jersey Big grin
Honestly, I've heard it being called the Gujrat Mail but nonetheless it makes money for AI

The Gujarat Express (18 hours flat, Newark-Apnu Amdavad). Taking it in December this year. Classic AI flight !

As an AMDavadi myself, I can say the "Gujarat Mail" is far better service than the Gujarat Express. In fact, even if its called a "Mail" train, its faster than the Express. I wish it was easy to get tix on the original "Gujarat Mail". Sold out 2 weeks in advance in off season and 3 months in advance in the vacation/NRG/marriage seasons. I have also heard this flight referred to as the "Gujarat Mail" by New Jersey residents.


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