Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/4058035/

Topic: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: ENU
Posted 2008-07-08 01:32:34 and read 27293 times.

Airbus will start developing a successor for the A318/19/20/21 family in 2014. First delivery could be four years later.

Source: http://www.handelsblatt.com/unterneh...-a320-im-jahr-2014-starten;2009007

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2008-07-08 01:53:24 and read 27203 times.

My German isn't anywhere near good enough to be able to read that article, but have I got this right:

Cost - €10billion?
15% "better" than A320?

A brief report in English:
http://www.portfolio.com/news-market...h-successor-to-a320-in-2014-report

It will be interesting to see if Airbus says anything about this at Farnborough.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: ENU
Posted 2008-07-08 02:01:53 and read 27153 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
Cost - €10billion?
15% "better" than A320

Cost - €8 to 10billion

Reasons for 2014 are 1) to busy with other programmes 2) no engines available yet that burn 15% less fuel.

Will Boeing follow?

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Swallow
Posted 2008-07-08 02:07:35 and read 27124 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
It will be interesting to see if Airbus says anything about this at Farnborough

They very well might.

The timing is interesting. R&D on the 350 will have wound down leaving engineering resources free for the A30X. But it also means Boeing have to respond with the 737RS, and that may delay the timing of Y3. This may leave the 350 to take the bottom end of the large twin market while the 77W holds on to the upper end, with the proposed updates to that platform including winglets that will be developed by Aviation Partners and will reduce fuel burn by 5-7%.

This also adds credence to speculation that the GTF may find its way onto the A30X. It should be production ready by around 2012 and offers the 12-15% fuel burn improvement that this article cites.

Interesting times lie ahead.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Frigatebird
Posted 2008-07-08 02:08:06 and read 27126 times.

So, finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB... Although, with only 4 years between start of development and EIS, I would think it will be rather more based on the current A320 than an all new design.

Some snippets of the article that interests me (for the non-German readers as well):
It's still unclear what kind of engines will be used;
Even if new engines were available before 2018, Airbus cannot start development earlier because they have their hands full on A400, A350 and A380 programs;
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same timeframe, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!);
Airbus still has a backlog worth 5 years of production, and if they land some big orders at Farnborough for the 'old' 320 they may postpone their plans as well.

Looks like (amongst others) AF-KL, AA and Keesje finally get what they want...  Wink

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Slz396
Posted 2008-07-08 02:31:21 and read 26960 times.



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB

Actually, the report doesn't really state that.

It states Airbus is now counting on 2014 (at the earliest) to start working on their NSR, which they have dubbed the A30X.

However, the article then goes on saying that:

Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same time frame, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!)

Which makes great sense.

Airbus is in the drivers seat here, so it is really up to Boeing to move first and Airbus can (and will) only play its cards after having seen those of Boeing.

As such I read the article as indicative of what has been said here numerous times, i.e. that Airbus does not expect anything to happen before 2014 because no new engine will be available before then and plans on doing nothing after that date either, for as long as Boeing doesn't move first...

In the mean time, they just keep building the backlog of the A320 to form a cushion which will allow them a soft landing once they launch their NSR (and orders for the A320 dry up) and given the fact they may improve the A320 thanks to an aerodynamic cleanup as well as engine modifications, they can make it even more attractive and efficient, thus constantly moving the target at which Boeing must aim (and thus also moving the date for their reply to it).

Don't expect to be on one of these brand new A30Xs next decade...  Wink

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: BrightCedars
Posted 2008-07-08 02:47:13 and read 26827 times.

It sounds as if all the efficiency gains would come from the new engines, and then it doesn't make much sense to change the whole plane design if you ask me.

I mean a narrow body will always be a narrow body and while a few more inches in width might help here and there I'm not seeing any drastic design changes needed here. Maybe a larger wing to support a step up in aircraft size (maybe 2 wings sizes would be a better idea) in order to start at the current A319 as the bottom of the product line and be able to exceed the A321 at the top of the line (long tube!) in order to provide a decent non-wide-body replacement for the B757/B767/A300/A310s of this world that travel relatively short hops with a lot of capacity. The sizes in between will definitely have to have transatlantic range (not LCA-LAX but something like BUD-ORD).

Ideally, the engine shouldn't run on fuel, but that seems a greater challenge for this scale of time.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Art
Posted 2008-07-08 02:52:33 and read 26800 times.

The German source cited La Tribune. The article in La Tribune includes (translated):

Before launching this new programme the idea of enhancing the existing A320 with improved propulsion is also being studied.

Source:

http://www.latribune.fr/info/A320-du...me-lance-en-2014-~-20080708U7GBREP

CFM have announced they will be introducing an enhanced engine with geater than 10% reduction in fuel burn about 2014 IIRC.

To me it seems more sensible to wait until open rotor and GTF possibilities are clear before launching a new aircraft.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Aviationbuff
Posted 2008-07-08 02:58:41 and read 26759 times.



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
So, finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB...

Airbus is probably trying to put pressure on Boeing to launch NSR before Y3.

Both A & B had to respond positively considering the fuel prices and the demand of airlines. They may also have some threat on the lower end from Embraer, Bombardier and to some extent Chineese.

Best of luck to both A & B.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Keesje
Posted 2008-07-08 03:21:16 and read 26612 times.



Quoting ENU (Reply 2):
Will Boeing follow?

I think this announcement is of little value to Boeing (and Airbus) they have been studying and (tunnel) testing various concepts for years and continue to do so. Same goes for the enabling technologies.

This announcement seems little more then PR "Yes we are working on something cleaner."
2018 is 10 years! A380, A350 and 787 took about half the development times.

This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: DeltaL1011man
Posted 2008-07-08 03:24:43 and read 26577 times.



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
Looks like (amongst others) AF-KL, AA and Keesje finally get what they want...

And Delta

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Chiad
Posted 2008-07-08 03:34:55 and read 26511 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
15% "better" than A320?

"Only" 15% improvement?
I guess they are referring to costs (fuelburn and maintenace).

However ... I think that "only" 15% isn't that much of an improvement, or is it?
This family probably wont be in service before closer to 2020.
Didn't the A320-100 EIS in 1988?.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Slz396
Posted 2008-07-08 03:37:43 and read 26491 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

You've got the point!  bigthumbsup 

But given the enthusiasm displayed here, the message was brought very well, don't you agree?  Smile

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Art
Posted 2008-07-08 03:58:39 and read 26353 times.

From flightglobal.com re: new engines:

The LEAP56 has a 15% higher-loaded single high-pressure turbine stage and an eight-stage high-pressure compressor, with 10-15% lower specific fuel consumption, up to 15dB less noise and 25% longer life on wing.

Both the GTF and LEAP56 technology would essentially transfer the ultra-high bypass ratio technology already powering widebody jets to the narrowbody market. Narrowbody engines have remained stuck in the same bypass range since turbofans were introduced in the 1970s.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...xt-generation-of-narrowbodies.html

That would be a very cheap way to cut the A320's fuel consumption. If it would not fit under the wing of a 737, so much the better for Airbus.,

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-08 04:35:03 and read 26168 times.



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same timeframe, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!);

Then why make this announcement? All it can do is tell the buyers to stop buying the A320, which is not in Airbus's interest. I'm sure it won't impact Boeing's plans one iota.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 5):
Airbus is in the drivers seat here, so it is really up to Boeing to move first and Airbus can (and will) only play its cards after having seen those of Boeing.

Both A and B have large backlogs. While some are saying up to 30% of those backlogs are at risk, that in essence means 70% are not.

Both A and B will replace their narrowbodies when new orders disappear and the backlog shinks, not any sooner. Till then, it's only tweaks to the current product lines.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: AutoThrust
Posted 2008-07-08 04:33:20 and read 26165 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

Good point, it will be wise to let Boeing first design their Y1 and then react.

Btw, great picture  Big grin


Your guess, how many A320 will be built until replacement:

6000?

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Frigatebird
Posted 2008-07-08 04:46:58 and read 26064 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

Which makes sense, with 5 years of production still as backlog. And with lots of resources invested in A400/A380/A350, and 787/748 (although B could develop a 737 sucessor earlier than 2014 if they don't decide to develop Y3 first).



Quoting Revelation (Reply 14):
Then why make this announcement? All it can do is tell the buyers to stop buying the A320, which is not in Airbus's interest. I'm sure it won't impact Boeing's plans one iota.

To be fair, it's not Airbus that made an official announcement, but French and German newspapers. And I don't expect Airbus to make an announcement at Farnborough either.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: RJ111
Posted 2008-07-08 04:48:34 and read 26045 times.

Airbus is projecting to sell 8,000 A32S by the end of its lifespan but this includes incorportating updates, such as electronic taxiing, winglets and potentially the GTF.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Art
Posted 2008-07-08 05:07:57 and read 25921 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 14):
Both A and B will replace their narrowbodies when new orders disappear and the backlog shinks, not any sooner. Till then, it's only tweaks to the current product lines.

I'm not so sure it's going to be that simple. It is in A and B's interest that their customer base should be profitable and to take account of conditions in the airline industry. Failing to plan ahead to provide shorthaul hardware capable of keeping their customers profitable in difficult times for the airline industry will result in a contraction of their customer base.

Customers will have to keep ordering some NB's if it is time to renew their NB's but they may not be good enough to keep them out of financial trouble.

I see a bit of a symbiotic relationship between manufacturers and airlines: manufacturers take steps to help customers make a profit; profitable customers buy more from manufacturers.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Keesje
Posted 2008-07-08 05:08:45 and read 25903 times.

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 15):
it will be wise to let Boeing first design their Y1 and then react.

I think we have to count on Boeing here. Their 737 has reached the end off its long product life cycle. Further dramatic enhancements seem unfeasible. When the first 50 787 have entered service and the 787-9 is ready they probably have the resources (cash flow, brains & manpower) in place. However an issue looms in the 350-500 seat segment, where Boeing is dominating now. The 777 seems at risk, the 747-8i is not selling..

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 15):
Your guess, how many A320 will be built until replacement:

Depends. My hope is Bombardier will be smart enough not to go it alone. This proved killing for proud companies like Dornier, Fokker and Douglas. A rich history & good product alone aren't good enough. A western risk sharing partner that can share design & support a quick ramp up of production and organize the after market would be great entering the commercial airlines market.

Maybe AVIC concluded the ARJ sucks & goes for plan B, who knows..

[Edited 2008-07-08 05:12:56]

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Kappel
Posted 2008-07-08 05:12:09 and read 25874 times.



Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
"Only" 15% improvement?
I guess they are referring to costs (fuelburn and maintenace).

15% refers to total operating costs. A 15% reduction in fuel burn alone would not achieve this.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: FreequentFlier
Posted 2008-07-08 05:14:34 and read 25874 times.

This is why I welcome the Chinese and Russian narrow-bodies that are arriving as we speak, along with Embraer and Bombardier's potential move upmarket. There is nothing to fear from competition, and it is competition that will produce a much more fuel efficient aircraft and one that is on a time frame of the airline's choosing, not that of Airbus or Boeing's choosing.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-08 05:44:09 and read 25731 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
I think we have to count on Boeing here. Their 737 has reached the end off its long product life cycle.

With backlog around 1500 and production around 300 per year, there's five more years of deliveries of the current orders, and those frames will fly around 15 years or so (more for the sub-hunter variants). Since first flight was in the 1960's, we are around 2/3rds the way through the 737's product life cycle, so stop talking nonsense.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Keesje
Posted 2008-07-08 06:55:52 and read 25384 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
h backlog around 1500 and production around 300 per year, there's five more years of deliveries of the current orders, and those frames will fly around 15 years or so (more for the sub-hunter variants). Since first flight was in the 1960's, we are around 2/3rds the way through the 737's product life cycle, so stop talking nonsense.

Revelation. The 737 will be probably produced for another 5 years. After that it won't stop (P8) but decline fast. That''s what I call end of the product life cycle for Boeing after producing it for 40 years: 7/8 . Ref Passenger versions of 747, 757, 767, 777-200: sales declined fast long before their successors become available.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: SXDFC
Posted 2008-07-08 07:09:54 and read 25296 times.

Maybe this means a chance for Airbus to land a WN order ?  duck 

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-08 07:33:17 and read 25172 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 23):
That''s what I call end of the product life cycle for Boeing after producing it for 40 years

Maybe end of production cycle, not product life cycle. Boeing is still supporting MDC legacy products, previous generation 737/747/757/767 etc. The company I work for has distinct milestones for each product: end of sales, end of production, end of support. The last one (end of support) is what we consider the end of the product life cycle, but people still use our products past end of support, and in very rare/extreme cases, we'll do support for these products too.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2008-07-08 08:32:57 and read 25159 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
Maybe end of production cycle, not product life cycle. Boeing is still supporting MDC legacy products, previous generation 737/747/757/767 etc.

Yes, of course they do, just as Airbus still supports the A300 and A310. He was really talking about end of production.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2008-07-08 09:15:54 and read 24456 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

 bigthumbsup 
Exactly the point. But it is mostly because they have their hands full with other things, as you have said, as well as the fact that no engine is available. I do not believe that either Boeing or Airbus is indifferent to the airline's requests for a new plane, but a company can only undertake a certain number of major projects at one time. If the 787 had gone according to the original schedule, Boeing would be in a position to jump on a new NB, but we all know what has happened with that scenario. Airbus is in a better position with their existing product, as they can hang a larger engine on it than Boeing can, which means they can upgrade the engine without a total redesign. Boeing will then have to respond with a new design, which will probably offer enough other improvements to force Airbus to respond with a new design as well. So the dance will continue, and the advantage will transfer to the one who can best get their act together on their existing products.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-08 09:16:37 and read 24369 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
He was really talking about end of production.

Yes, now we know what he's talking about, but his point misses the mark. It's not like A320 and B737 are seeing a rapid drop in orders. Both A and B seem to be happy with another 5 years or more of solid production life on A320 and B737 respectively, and both will be making profits off those products for decades to come. I don't see any pressing need for one to "show their cards first". Both products have their strengths and weaknesses, and are more similar than different. Both manufacturers seem to have no problem with a long wind-down in the production cycle of the airplane, long past the days where there are better products available.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-08 09:17:43 and read 24345 times.

[Double posting removed...]

[Edited 2008-07-08 09:18:22]

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: FrmrCAPCADET
Posted 2008-07-08 10:04:06 and read 23627 times.

Both A & B are keeping their best customers up to date on what they can do with their new NBs. Those best customers are also talking with the engine makers. There are no real secrets involved. Neither A nor B can manipulate the data to put off the best customers. Should two or three of the best customers of either A or B say it is time to go, they would likely go, or at least in the next few years. We also don't know the details of current NB contracts, they likely have clauses allowing some delay and conversion to the new NBs.

I do not have ANY inside information for anything I have said. Yet my confidence level for it is pretty high. I would certainly be fascinated if anyone has any information to belie any of the above points.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: ER757
Posted 2008-07-08 12:45:01 and read 21741 times.



Quoting Art (Reply 7):
To me it seems more sensible to wait until open rotor and GTF possibilities are clear before launching a new aircraft.

I think that is a prudent course if action.  checkmark 

Quoting Art (Reply 13):
That would be a very cheap way to cut the A320's fuel consumption. If it would not fit under the wing of a 737, so much the better for Airbus.,

This question might be better suited for tech/ops, but how much of a re-design would be involved on the 737 to make it compatible with larger engines that an A320 could accomodate now?

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Nomadd22
Posted 2008-07-08 13:11:46 and read 21422 times.

I keep seeing two different efficiency figures. There's a difference between engine fuel burn improvement and aircraft fuel burn improvement. For the same payload on the same route the plane gets more improvement than the 15 - 20% figure the engine has improved because the plane would be carrying less fuel and the engines would be at lower thrust. You get to add the fuel savings from the new technology plus the lower operating weight.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: EA772LR
Posted 2008-07-08 13:36:07 and read 21128 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think this announcement is of little value to Boeing (and Airbus) they have been studying and (tunnel) testing various concepts for years and continue to do so. Same goes for the enabling technologies.

This announcement seems little more then PR "Yes we are working on something cleaner."
2018 is 10 years! A380, A350 and 787 took about half the development times.

This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"


 bigthumbsup  I'm with you on that one. Basically "yada yada yada....we won't access to enough technologies for a true 15% improvement over this current generation." Which means 2 things to me:
1.) Boeing has nothing to worry about as well and has said the same thing as Airbus.
2.) Speaks a lot about how good the 737NG/320 families are in their current state.

Kudos to both Boeing and Airbus on the latter  thumbsup 

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Loran
Posted 2008-07-08 21:02:50 and read 18018 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 23):
Revelation. The 737 will be probably produced for another 5 years. After that it won't stop (P8) but decline fast. That''s what I call end of the product life cycle for Boeing after producing it for 40 years: 7/8 . Ref Passenger versions of 747

Revelation is right, the life-cycle lasts from the identification of the need of a product, until the phase out & disposal, where the 737 is far away from. I would guess the 737 is somewhere just over half through its product life-cycle, since the frames delivered in 5 years will easily be flying until around 2035. The B-52's life-cycle for example may reach 100 years, if they keep them until 2045 as suggested.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Trent1000
Posted 2008-07-08 21:23:31 and read 17897 times.



Quoting ENU (Reply 2):
Will Boeing follow?

How do we know that Beoing are not ahead? Does Boeing often play 'catch up'?

It will be interesting to see medium term engine innovation; design, materials, fuel burned etc no matter who develops the technology and when. Let's hope it's sooner rather than later though.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Ken777
Posted 2008-07-08 23:04:40 and read 17200 times.

I believe that there is a lot of communicating between airlines, A & B and the engine makers. When the airlines are satisfied that the engines are ready then the pressure on A & B will be huge, especially when they are facing the fuel costs that I doubt will decline significantly.

At the same time, I believe those same fuel costs will cause airlines (or at least the ones that survive) to re-evaluate their fleet requirements as they are going to be working off of a very different business plan than today.

My guess is that both A & B are fairly far along with their research. Boeing might have a small advantage as they used a "787 - Y1 R&D" program when developing the 787.

The other question will be available funds to start development. If the 787 partnership program is worked out and running smoothly then I can see them leveraging this approach, minimizing their costs. The 787-9 should be out of development, the 748 will be done with and Boeing could probably work on Y1 and Y3 at the same time.

On the Airbus side, the 350 will still be getting resources and the 389 might be gaining some resources, especially if some "influential" airlines are pushing to convert some of their 388 orders to 389s.

Regardless, it's going to be interesting to watch, especially after the 787 starts flight testing and new rumors start flying along with it.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: TSS
Posted 2008-07-08 23:53:01 and read 16827 times.



Quoting ER757 (Reply 31):
This question might be better suited for tech/ops, but how much of a re-design would be involved on the 737 to make it compatible with larger engines that an A320 could accomodate now?

For starters, greater ground clearance is required. But that leads to a whole bunch of what Norm Abrams of "This Old House" fame calls you might as wells:
Greater ground clearance > longer forward landing gear > larger forward landing gear bay > less cargo capacity, so you might as well redesign the whole aircraft fuselage from the passenger floor downwards to maximize cargo capacity.

Also, you might as well redesign the wing to make room for the main landing gear and to take advantage of the latest advances in aerodynamics plus the fact that you can now have a little space between the engines and the wing's underside.

And as long as you're updating the aerodynamics, you can't leave the nose and quaint but not-exactly-slick flat glass cockpit windows untouched. If you're going to change those aspects, you might as well update the cockpit itself.

Now that 3/4s of the aircraft is all-new, you might as well make a few much-needed improvements to the passenger space. A ten-inch minimum widening of the 737 interior would make for a slightly wider aisle and seats without moving the aircraft up a whole size class and alienating existing customers.

And presto! You've got a completely new aircraft.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Baroque
Posted 2008-07-09 00:46:44 and read 16397 times.

[i[ Revelation,reply=28 Double posting removed...[/i]

Had you put that in Rev, you presumably would have implied 5 (first post) + 5 (repeat post) years life for the two programs and 10 more years might be closer to reality than 5 - think you not? Big grin

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-09 04:52:26 and read 15857 times.



Quoting Baroque (Reply 38):
Had you put that in Rev, you presumably would have implied 5 (first post) + 5 (repeat post) years life for the two programs and 10 more years might be closer to reality than 5 - think you not?

Absolutely. I just meant the current orders almost guarantee full scale production for the next 5 years. As more orders come in, or as orders get cancelled, we will see that number change. As this thread's starter said, Airbus is saying the A30X will at best EIS in 2018, so that's 10 years more production life from today right there, and we'd see a gradual wind-down of A320 over the following 3+ years as A30X ramps up. Those planes would need support till at least 2040 or so, and Airbus will be making plenty of dough selling replacement parts as things wear out.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Baroque
Posted 2008-07-09 05:33:39 and read 15745 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 39):
Absolutely. I just meant the current orders almost guarantee full scale production for the next 5 years. As more orders come in, or as orders get cancelled, we will see that number change.

No doubt it is a tricky problem, but a heck of a lot preferable to running out of sales and then having to think "What do we do next?"! Spike Milligan ended some of his Q8 episodes that way IIRC.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-10 05:20:44 and read 15321 times.

Tomorrow can wait as Airbus and Boeing leave next generation narrowbody development on the back burner

Pretty much confirms many things certain a.net members deny:
- A320 projected to be in production for another 10 years
- No near term plan to replace either model
- One sign of this is that AF is replaceing old A320s with new A320s!
- Likelyhood of GTF on A320 is low
- 3,500 A320s have been produced
- A320 production run should reach 8,000 frames
- So we're not yet half way through the A320 production phase
- B737 will be in production at least another 6 years
- B737 has introduced the following features ahead of A320:
+ Winglets
+ Cockpit heads-up display and vertical situation display
+ GPS landing system
+ Class 3 electronic flight bag
+ 16g head-impact seating
+ Fuel inerting system
- Boeing says B737 is ligher, more aerodynamic and burns less fuel than A320

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: EBGflyer
Posted 2008-07-10 05:37:29 and read 15280 times.

SAS have already indicated that they will be changing their ageing Mad Dog fleet with a new generation of short-haul aircraft whenever they become available. Just wondering whether it's really feasible to be flying with the MD's for another 10+ years! ..not least in respect to the increase in the price of oil.

Some of their MD 81+82's were delivere in the mid 80's although the majority of MD's are from around 1990.

I could easily see them as launch customers if they have the money at that time or if they have not been bought up by another major European carrier. Or perhaps their bad experience being a launch customer with the Dash8-Q400 will keep them off for a while.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Nomadd22
Posted 2008-07-10 05:37:38 and read 15283 times.



Quoting ER757 (Reply 31):
This question might be better suited for tech/ops, but how much of a re-design would be involved on the 737 to make it compatible with larger engines that an A320 could accomodate now?

I was wondering what the feasability of a difefrent size fan would be on the GTF. I know the big one everybody refers to is the optimum size, but how much efficiency would they lose if they made a model 10% smaller, maybe with a different gear ratio. If it was only a 2% drop, it might be worth it, since they could possibly sell a couple thousand of them for the later years of 737 production.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-10 05:54:22 and read 15223 times.



Quoting EBGflyer (Reply 42):
SAS have already indicated that they will be changing their ageing Mad Dog fleet with a new generation of short-haul aircraft whenever they become available. Just wondering whether it's really feasible to be flying with the MD's for another 10+ years! ..not least in respect to the increase in the price of oil.

Some of their MD 81+82's were delivere in the mid 80's although the majority of MD's are from around 1990.

Yes, I think that's a big issue for several airlines. AA comes to mind as well.

Quoting Nomadd22 (Reply 43):
I was wondering what the feasability of a difefrent size fan would be on the GTF. I know the big one everybody refers to is the optimum size, but how much efficiency would they lose if they made a model 10% smaller, maybe with a different gear ratio. If it was only a 2% drop, it might be worth it, since they could possibly sell a couple thousand of them for the later years of 737 production.

As above, it's not easy to change one thing in isolation.

There has never been PW engines on 737 so that alone would be a huge change.

And it's clear the GTF will weigh more than a non-GTF model.

Bottom line: there will be issues to solve for either manufacturer to get the GTF onto the current airframe.

Quote:
Airbus will evaluate the GTF on its A340-600 flying testbed this year. While the engine promises major fuel burn savings, A320 programme executive vice-president Alain Flourens says the studies of a potential mid-life update with the engine for the A320 "won't be limited to just the specific fuel consumption, we'll look at all the ramifications for the aircraft". Flourens says "the issue is to see what real improvement the engine could offer, when it would be available and how long the life of the family would be when the engine is introduced".

Timing is critical. "We don't want to introduce a new engine for just a few years," Flourens says. He adds that Airbus also has to establish what a move to a new engine would mean to customers "as it could result in a sub-fleet for operators".

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Keesje
Posted 2008-07-10 06:41:12 and read 15163 times.

Some think Airbus and Boeing determine when new aircraft will be required & bought.

For those people Airbus & Boeing changing plans probably often comes as a surprise.

IMO happenings like the A350, Sonic Cruiser, 747-8i, "Bigger Aircraft", KC45, Skyloft, "109 deliveries in 09" and insider trading should have ringed a bell.

It pays of to look for yourself and e.g. conclude the market will demand more efficient aircraft & the technology is available long before 2020. A & B might say something different, they have different objectives too.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Stitch
Posted 2008-07-10 06:52:13 and read 15112 times.

It is certainly true that airlines need to move to more efficient planes not only to lower their own costs, but to keep their prices low enough that they can still attract people to their company. Airlines the world over are starting to see contraction in traffic from previous months and year-on-year as less people can afford - or justify the expense - to fly.

The price of oil not only makes flying more expensive (higher fares and fees), but it also makes living more expensive, which diverts money that was/could be spent on flying. I cashed in miles this year for my annual trip to SAN from SEA. The cost of an F ticket rose from $700 to $800 in the intervening year because of higher fuel prices, but I am spending many hundreds more per month for housing, energy, food and such because the costs for all of those are also indexed to oil. So it's not the extra $100 that AS wanted for the ticket that changed the dollars-per-miles equation, but the extra $4000 I've spent on non-flying expenses in the interim.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Rheinwaldner
Posted 2008-07-10 07:55:27 and read 14995 times.

Driving factor for delaying new NB's are IMHO lack of development resources. A+B are so comitted to diverse WB projects that there is no resource to steam a new "big project".
As long as both are satisfied with their market share there is not sufficent incentive to react (airlines can cry as much as they want).

A+B are kind of "mutual locked". A progress killing condition but quite comfortable for both of them (generate cash without real investement is always good for the vendor).

IMO a new plane that would offer just 10% efficiency improvement would immediately catch close to 100% market share. And that is reachable with 787 technology applied to a NB.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-10 08:21:21 and read 14940 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
It pays of to look for yourself and e.g. conclude the market will demand more efficient aircraft & the technology is available long before 2020.

Looking for myself, according to Scbriml, we see that Airbus has taken in 34 more orders for A320s in June and Boeing has taken in 37 for B737, and all this is after oil has increased 3x according to your chart. Also, year to date, Airbus has taken in 201 orders for A320 and Boeing has taken in 187 for B737 (again, after the 3x increase in oil), and Airbus has a total backlog of 2,634 A320s and Boeing has a total backlog of 2,243 B737s.

So, what conclusion should I be reaching? That the market will demand more efficient aircraft long before 2020 when both manufactuers have backlogs out till 2016-8 or so at their highest production rates, and that backlog is increasing every month?

IMHO, no newly designed narrowbodies will be built till we see existing narrowbody orders cancelled en masse, and new orders dry up, and this just is not happening, even with very expensive oil.

PS: It'd be nice if that chart had a proper Y axis. For one to get the correct scale, it's origin should be 0 but it is not. Seems a marketing person must have drawn it instead of an engineer!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
So it's not the extra $100 that AS wanted for the ticket that changed the dollars-per-miles equation, but the extra $4000 I've spent on non-flying expenses in the interim.

 checkmark 

I see this, you see this, but it seems our politicians aren't seeing this. We've been talking about a national energy policy since the oil shocks of the 1970's, but it seems the current energy policy is "what's good for Exxon/Mobil is good for the US!"  Angry

Much of our economic livelyhood depends on the price of oil, mainly because we haven't been working on alternatives.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Keesje
Posted 2008-07-10 08:59:05 and read 14866 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
Looking for myself, according to Scbriml, we see that Airbus ..... and Boeing has a total backlog of 2,243 B737s.

So, what conclusion should I be reaching?

Well either :

1. The airlines love the B737 / A320 fuel efficiency, improvemnet is a waste of money
2. The airlines hate it but have no alternative, Airbus & Boeing sit on their cashcows.

IMO further fuel price rises, order cancellations, airline bankrupties, Bombardier CSeries / Embraer 200 etc could put a knife in the backlogs can have Airbus and Boeing marketing come up with new insights, like they had many during the last decade.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
Boeing has a total backlog of 2,243 B737s

Say 33% is cancelled, airlines upgrade existing fleet and or buy CSeries, Embraers etc. that makes 1500. Boeing is boosting production up from todays 360 a year, that makes 4-5 years-> 2012/13.

Now how long does it take to EIS something new, 12 years?

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2008-07-10 09:11:50 and read 14835 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
Also, year to date, Airbus has taken in 201 orders for A320 and Boeing has taken in 187 for B737

You're reading delivery numbers!

Orders are 313 for A320 and 355 for 737 through June!

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2008-07-10 09:21:11 and read 14797 times.

The article is in line with what most are saying with respect to the current order backlog, production for 10 more years, and tapering off of the demand.

What Airbus is saying is that they will have a plane on the market by 2018 earliest. By 2014 they would have completed the marketing efforts and launch the plane for a 4 years development program. But before 2014 they will be showing details on the concepts, layouts, configurations, engines.

Quoting Loran (Reply 34):
the life-cycle lasts from the identification of the need of a product

As long as A & B do not blink, then they are in the drivers seat and their NB life-cycle hums along. However, if all of a sudden there is a better engine than the CFM56 (say GTF turns out to be a game changer on Cseries), or there is serious new competition, then the life-cycle can be unexpectedly shortened.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
My hope is Bombardier will be smart enough not to go it alone. This proved killing for proud companies like Dornier, Fokker and Douglas.

BBD have said all along they will not launch the program without a partner. BBD now have AVIC 1 as a geo-strategic partner building the fuselage. There is lot's of talk about 2 Chinese carriers being part of the launch customers.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
Maybe AVIC concluded the ARJ sucks & goes for plan B, who knows..

The ARJ will not sell much in the Western world as it is old technology (it is a poor copy of the B717). It is an investment by the Chinese to learn to design and build large planes going in to the future.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
an issue looms in the 350-500 seat segment, where Boeing is dominating now. The 777 seems at risk, the 747-8i is not selling..

I think Boeing will make the choice based on where they can get fastest growth focusing on shareholder return. If 777 sales start drying out faster than 737NG sales, they will focus on Y3. And vice versa. In either case, I agree with you that they have a dilemma on their hands.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-10 09:52:36 and read 14742 times.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
1. The airlines love the B737 / A320 fuel efficiency, improvemnet is a waste of money

Thanks for the Reductio ad absurdum argument. I guess you ran out of cute kitten pictures to post.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
2. The airlines hate it but have no alternative, Airbus & Boeing sit on their cashcows.

They hate it enough to be ordering ~650 frames so far this year, and we haven't had the Farnborough show yet.

I think the truth is closer to (2) than (1), but evidence is that the current NBs are "good enough" (witness the ongoing orders) and neither airframer feels it's worth investing $10B+ and disrupting the current product line till the current NBs are not "good enough" and replacements can be made that are "good enough" to justify spending $10B+ on development.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
IMO further fuel price rises, order cancellations, airline bankrupties, Bombardier CSeries / Embraer 200 etc could put a knife in the backlogs can have Airbus and Boeing marketing come up with new insights, like they had many during the last decade.

Yes, that could happen, but there's really no evidence for that happening so far.

If the CSeries with the GTF catches A and B napping, good for Bombardier, but they better be ready to deal with whatever A and B do in 2018 or so.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):

Now how long does it take to EIS something new, 12 years?

I'd imagine 8 years is probably a better number.

Boeing Goes Back to Drawing Board for 737 Follow-on has interesting info about why Boeing has stepped back from a near-term 737RS project and is now focusing on broader R&D aiming at a suitable 737 replacement when the right technology is ready. It also goes into Airbus's current thoughts as well: no A320 replacement till 2018 or so.

Reading the tea leaves, it seems we'll see a Y3 before we'll see a Y1. It seems the 787 technology scales up to larger planes better than it scales down to smaller ones.

[Edited 2008-07-10 09:58:13]

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Revelation
Posted 2008-07-10 09:57:08 and read 14728 times.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 50):
Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
Also, year to date, Airbus has taken in 201 orders for A320 and Boeing has taken in 187 for B737

You're reading delivery numbers!

Orders are 313 for A320 and 355 for 737 through June!

Sorry for the error!

The correct data makes my point even stronger!

The incoming orders are greater than the deliveries, so the backlog is growing, even in the face of $142+/bbl oil.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2008-07-10 10:03:12 and read 14690 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
1. The airlines love the B737 / A320 fuel efficiency, improvemnet is a waste of money
2. The airlines hate it but have no alternative, Airbus & Boeing sit on their cashcows.

I propose a third alternative. Everyone would like more efficiency, Airbus and Boeing included. But with the cost of developing a new airframe being north of $10 billion, and an engine that will deliver enough improvement in efficiency to make it worthwhile not yet available, and both manufacturers up to their ears in development projects and delays, this is just a very bad time for both of them to start a new NB. As to the idea that Boeing and Airbus are sitting on their cash cows, I don't buy it. Boeing tried that in the '90's; it didn't work all that well for them. I doubt that they will try it again any time soon. They are well aware that if the engines become available and they don't act, someone else will, and there will go their cash cow. I'm sure Airbus has the same perception.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Stitch
Posted 2008-07-10 10:22:17 and read 14671 times.



Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
Say 33% is canceled (and) airlines ..buy (regional jets). That makes 1500. Boeing is boosting production up from today's 360 a year (which means the backlog could be exhausted in as little as) 4-5 years.

In terms of passenger capacity, the EMB-195 can replace the 737-600 and A318-100. Boeing has no 737-600 orders to fill and Airbus has only 38. The Bombardier C-130 can compete with the A319-100 and 737-700, of which Boeing has 541 73G orders left to fill and Airbus has 525. In terms of payload, the A318/A319 and B736/B73G all have higher maximum payloads so they can carry more cargo by weight (and I imagine by volume).

So I am not sure we're going to see mass cancellations of the A318, A319 and B73G in favor of EMB-195s and C-130s.

And if we do, one would think Airbus, which is pushing towards a 50 frame per month production rate across three factories (TLS, XFW and TJN) would be the one more at risk then Boeing closing on 40 at one plant.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Scbriml
Posted 2008-07-10 10:24:48 and read 14663 times.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 53):
The incoming orders are greater than the deliveries, so the backlog is growing, even in the face of $142+/bbl oil.

With rumours that ILFC is about to order 300 A320s and 737s, the number will get even stronger!

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2008-07-10 11:43:21 and read 14524 times.



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 36):
I believe that there is a lot of communicating between airlines, A & B and the engine makers.

If there wasn't, the industry wouldn't exist....  Smile

Quoting Baroque (Reply 40):
Spike Milligan ended some of his Q8 episodes that way IIRC.

Sometimes when I read some of your posts, I reckon rumours of his demise were greatly exaggerated...  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Keesje (Reply 49):
Say 33% is cancelled, airlines upgrade existing fleet and or buy CSeries, Embraers etc. that makes 1500. Boeing is boosting production up from todays 360 a year, that makes 4-5 years-> 2012/13.

700 narrobodies ordered in the first 6 months indicates that future orders for the A320 and 737 aren't going to dry up this afternoon.....  Smile

Quoting Stitch (Reply 55):
And if we do, one would think Airbus, which is pushing towards a 50 frame per month production rate across three factories

Thought it was supposed to be 40 per month.....

Rgds

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Stitch
Posted 2008-07-10 11:49:14 and read 14512 times.



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 57):
Thought it was supposed to be 40 per month.....

I expect them to go higher.

Topic: RE: Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2008-07-10 11:52:29 and read 14503 times.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 58):
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 57):
Thought it was supposed to be 40 per month.....

I expect them to go higher.

They have said they were looking to go higher.
 checkmark 
Presumably, (like Boeing), they'll be keeping their ear firmly to the customer's mouthpiece during this period.......

Rgds


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/