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Topic: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: PM
Posted 2009-05-16 07:07:50 and read 2803 times.

It's Saturday night.

People with lives are out enjoying themselves. But I have a problem to solve... tired 

In the first four months of this year Airbus and Boeing delivered 64 widebodies. bigthumbsup 

18 of these were delivered in the first half of the month (i.e. up to and including the 15th) and 46 were delivered in the second half (on the 16th and above).

The same was true thoughout 2008. 182 widebodies were delivered: 60 up the the 15th of each month and 122 from the 16th onwards.

In 2007 widebody deliveries totalled 197: 55 in the first half of each month and 142 in the second.

In 2007 28% of widebodies were delivered in the first fifteen days of each month vs. 72% from the 16th on.
In 2008 33% of widebodies were delivered in the first fifteen days of each month vs. 67% from the 16th on.
In 2009 (so far) 28% of widebodies were delivered in the first fifteen days of each month vs. 72% from the 16th on.

2007: 28/72
2008: 33/67
2009: 28/72  alert 

In other words, over the past 28 months (I haven't checked back further than January 2007) more than 2/3 of all widebodies have been delivered in the second half of the month. This trend is visible in almost every individual month.  spin 

It's true for both Airbus and Boeing.

What's going on?  scratchchin 

Is it some sort of contractual thing whereby they pull out the stops to make delivery by the 31st?

It's certainly not a coincidence.

I think it's time we were told. whistleblower 

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: Stitch
Posted 2009-05-16 07:21:47 and read 2779 times.

If these were automobile sales, I'd just believe it was customers taking advantage of the dealership's desire to move standing product at the end of each month and offering better deals to do so, generating more sales.

However, airliners are built to order with contracted delivery dates, so it's not like airlines are walking the flight lines at PAE and TLS the last two weeks of the month, kicking tires and haggling with the Sales Manager.  rotfl 

Maybe it's just the airlines prefer to pick up planes towards the end of the month for whatever reason(s)?

Or the natural production cycle is of a certain length that statistically falls more often towards the end of a month then the beginning?

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: SR183
Posted 2009-05-16 07:23:25 and read 2781 times.

Peter,

You made a great observation there on Saturday night.. Wink. I presume that it has something to do with the accounting settlements between companies. I'll ask the Airbus guys in Toulouse when I visit them later this month.
Engines are among the parts that are mounted in the very end of the production lines because of the inventory costs involved (at Airbus). Maybe you should also do a similar analysis on engine deliveries if you have the data.. Smile

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: PM
Posted 2009-05-16 07:34:18 and read 2753 times.



Quoting SR183 (Reply 2):
Maybe you should also do a similar analysis on engine deliveries if you have the data.

I have the data. (Of course, I have the data!) But it's 11.30 in Sapporo and the wine's just run out. Bedtime, I think. (Though how I'm ever going to sleep till this is sorted out I just don't know...)

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: Baroque
Posted 2009-05-16 07:43:35 and read 2740 times.



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
I have the data. (

It is certainly a worry, what will you find next?

With the A380 you could imagine a cyclicity getting stuck in one half of the months, but with A330s popping out at 8 or 9 a month it is hard to see why or indeed how they manage to do it. How about the (2) guys that sign them off are both working only part time to "save costs"?  duck 

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: SR183
Posted 2009-05-16 07:45:09 and read 2736 times.



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
I have the data. (Of course, I have the data!)

Sorry, I have underestimated your knowledge base.. Wink

And didn't you notice any patterns with narrow body deliveries?

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: PM
Posted 2009-05-16 07:55:27 and read 2712 times.



Quoting SR183 (Reply 5):
Sorry, I have underestimated your knowledge base.

Actually, my 'knowledge' is nowhere near as vast as my data! Don't underestime the latter but feel free to take shots at the former. Big grin

Quoting SR183 (Reply 5):
And didn't you notice any patterns with narrow body deliveries?

To be honest, I didn't look. I have quite enough to worry about with the widebodies without chasing after their little brothers and sisters. But if anyone else can run the numbers I'd be very interested to see if there is a pattern. My guess (and that's all it is) is that there will be.

For some reason, both Airbus and Boeing routinely deliver seven out of every ten widebodies in the second half of each month. What's afoot? (Cue an old music hall (or is it Morecambe & Wise?) response from Baroque Big grin)

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: MEA-707
Posted 2009-05-16 10:24:03 and read 2630 times.

I do the Boeing 737ng lists on airlinerlist.com and noted the 737ng have this effect as well, roll outs and first flights are very stable during the whole month (usually 1 or 2 every working day) but a delivery hausse in the last week of every month, relatively more 737s built are delivered between 24-31 of a month. Not all but definitely more then coincidental, also with 2900 frames you can do better statistics.
I can think of many reasons, some which are not mentioned yet;
the accounting department works with calendar months and likes the total deliveries in the current month to be as high as possible and receive cash as soon as possible, so they prefer to get an aircraft signed and fly out by the 31st if possible instead of the 2nd or 4th, which would happen if they'd deliver all aircraft say a month after roll out.
The receiving airline schedules in a new aircraft and its staff from the start of a month so they rather get one a few days ahead (between 23-31) then early in a month.

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: Astuteman
Posted 2009-05-16 11:26:34 and read 2576 times.



Quoting PM (Thread starter):
Is it some sort of contractual thing whereby they pull out the stops to make delivery by the 31st?

I suspect it's to with when people want to get money....

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 7):
the accounting department works with calendar months and likes the total deliveries in the current month to be as high as possible and receive cash as soon as possible, so they prefer to get an aircraft signed and fly out by the 31st if possible instead of the 2nd or 4th

Gets my vote  thumbsup 

Rgds

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: Bongodog1964
Posted 2009-05-16 13:06:40 and read 2518 times.

I had always assumed that major industries such as aerospace, were better organised, than my experiences in both electronics and industrial vehicles, but after reading PM's information, I now have my doubts.
In both my previous careers, we worked to monthly targets, which would normally result in a big push in the last 10 days of the month to meet the required numbers. This would always involve a combination of redeploying staff to the end of the production line, redeployment of materials (if a part showed up as faulty on test, it would have to be robbed from another machine, if we hadn't got any in the stores) and working extra hours.
The result of all this was, that on the 1st week of the next month, we would always start in a position where the "big push" of the previous week had been to the detriment of the following months production, jobs would be behind due to labour redeployment, we would be waiting for parts to replace the robbed ones, and staff would be reluctant to work extra hours as they had just done extra for the previous 2 weeks .

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: Tdscanuck
Posted 2009-05-16 13:50:50 and read 2456 times.



Quoting PM (Thread starter):
What's going on?

Deliveries are specified to the nearest month. A plane isn't late until it slips to the next month. So there's a push to get everything that's due that month out by the end of the month.

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
Is it some sort of contractual thing whereby they pull out the stops to make delivery by the 31st?

Yes.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2nd Half Of Each Month
Username: SR183
Posted 2009-05-16 14:10:39 and read 2438 times.



Quoting PM (Reply 6):
Actually, my 'knowledge' is nowhere near as vast as my data! Don't underestime the latter but feel free to take shots at the former. Big grin

I understand that my 'knowledge base' comment, which referred to data or access to data, was an ambiguous one..I'm sorry about that...I couldn't help myself laughing though when I saw your data comment as I know your craze for engines since long.. Big grin

Given the possibility of paying on a pro rata temporis basis, this high percentage of deliveries towards the 2nd half of each month is a strange phenomenon.. I'll try to get some reasonable answers in the coming days..


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