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Topic: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 17:07:56 and read 15521 times.

I don't have an official link on this, but United today put out an RFP to several regional carriers for express flying. I am not sure if this is to replace 737 flying, to replace flying done by an existing carrier, or what this is about. I learned this from a company memo put out to employees at my company.

Any intital thoughts on frontrunners for this? My initial thought is there is no way Republic will win this based on recent events.

(Note to Moderators, there is another thread open on a United RFP, but that deals with the Express ground handling in ORD. This one is about new flying, and I couldn't find any links to it. If there is an exisiting thread, please copy and paste all articles from this thread onto that one.)

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-20 17:32:24 and read 15450 times.



Quoting Apodino (Thread starter):
there is no way Republic will win this based on recent events.

Is F9 + WN that much worse than huge WN? I'm not so sure.

If UA is interested in DH4s, and the rumor is that they are, L4 would probably be a front-runner. There would probably be bad press if they hired 9L...

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 17:48:05 and read 15377 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):
If UA is interested in DH4s, and the rumor is that they are, L4 would probably be a front-runner. There would probably be bad press if they hired 9L...

I doubt Lynx would be a front runner for a few reasons. If its Q 400 flying (I don't know exactly what the parameters of the RFP are), it would presumably be to replace the Mesa Dash 8 flying in Denver. In this situation, wouldn't it be easier for UA to just codeshare with Lynx who is already flying routes out of DEN that UA would want them to fly. Secondly, Lynx already has a flying deal for a different carrier in DEN, and this other carrier would financially benefit from a UA deal, and there is no way UA is going to now give more money to a company that is already causing them to lose pricing power at one of their most important hubs. Thats the big reason I don't think any Republic owned company is going to win this flying, especially since it was much of their money used to buy their biggest DEN rival (WN doesn't yet have the DEN presence that F9 has). I also agree there is no way they would want the press that a Colgan win would give them, even though lost in the shuffle is the fact that Colgan is already operating Saabs out of IAD for UA.

If its for more jet flying, I see four possibilities here. Skywest is obviously going to be a player in any new United Deal. Air Wisconsin will be very aggressive in pursuing the flying, and they are in a good position to bid it as incremental growth, which is a less expensive way to do it, and they have the resources to acquire new aircraft for such a bid. The fact that the ORD ground handling is also up may help them as well. GoJet will likely be a player as well, as they have aircraft on order that I don't believe are covered by the current UA deal. I hate to say that, but with Tilton running UA, they have to be a possibility. And one more possibility I would throw out would be ExpressJet. They are doing some flying now with the Aquafresh planes, and given the CO/UA partnership this would be a natural fit for some of the ERJ's that CO has that don't have homes. That being said, I would like to think that they would like to just stick to CO as much as possible. The RST incident didn't help their cause either.

As I said, Anything Republic I doubt will play in this. And I don't think Mesa is a good enough financial position to be a serious player in this bid. So I think the four players will be GoJet, Skywest, Air Wisconsin, and ExpressJet. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-20 17:52:54 and read 15351 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 2):
If its Q 400 flying (I don't know exactly what the parameters of the RFP are), it would presumably be to replace the Mesa Dash 8 flying in Denver.

Why do you say that? They'd replace DH2s nearly two-for-one.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 2):
Thats the big reason I don't think any Republic owned company is going to win this flying, especially since it was much of their money used to buy their biggest DEN rival

Let me ask again, though: is it better for Republic to own F9 than for WN to own F9? If UA did not want WN to grow that much in DEN, perhaps the Republic transaction is a "win" for UA.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 18:09:06 and read 15290 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 3):
Let me ask again, though: is it better for Republic to own F9 than for WN to own F9? If UA did not want WN to grow that much in DEN, perhaps the Republic transaction is a "win" for UA.

I do think the WN deal would have been better for UA than the RP deal and here is why. If you take a look at every UA hub (IAD, LAX, ORD, DEN, and SFO), every city already has a significant WN presence. ORD is probably their most important hub, and MDW is arguably WN's most important station as well. They compete like crazy, and both airlines make it work. SFO and LAX have only run into slight problems because VX decided to cherry pick routes from them and most of those routes aren't even flown by WN. But overall UA still makes both stations, especially SFO, work very well. In DEN, UA's pricing power started to diminish as F9 got bigger. WN entering the market didn't help, but if what has been rumored about DEN losing money for WN is true, WN getting F9 would leave WN and UA as the two biggest carriers there, and WN would certainly raise fares a bit to stem off some losses. So I think UA would gain some pricing power in DEN without F9. Now with RP in the mix, you have three major players competing, which I think trashes some of the pricing power that UA would have gained from a WN deal. Keep in mind that WN has built up PHL and US still has some pricing power in PHL, one reason that PIT got the ax.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Flyibaby
Posted 2009-08-20 18:09:30 and read 15291 times.



Quoting Apodino (Thread starter):
I don't have an official link on this, but United today put out an RFP to several regional carriers for express flying. I am not sure if this is to replace 737 flying, to replace flying done by an existing carrier, or what this is about. I learned this from a company memo put out to employees at my company.

Do you think there would be any chance of ZW putting any of the old BAE 146's back into service, or were those already chopped?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 18:14:32 and read 15255 times.



Quoting Flyibaby (Reply 5):
Do you think there would be any chance of ZW putting any of the old BAE 146's back into service, or were those already chopped?

No chance at all. They are all off the property now and no longer on the certificate, plus they are big time fuel guzzlers which is not exactly what you want in an airplane these days. 170's can do the jobs just as well with less fuel IMO.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-20 18:16:02 and read 15242 times.



Quoting Apodino (Thread starter):
My initial thought is there is no way Republic will win this based on recent events.

if United is that cross with Republic, why did they go ahead with the Mokulele interline after the Republic bid for Frontier was announced?

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Dsuairptman
Posted 2009-08-20 18:54:47 and read 15087 times.

Is there any word on what type/seat capacity aircraft UA is looking for? This might help in getting a better feel with what UA plans to do.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Dsuairptman
Posted 2009-08-20 19:10:31 and read 15030 times.

Come to think of it, I've heard UA has almost finished phasing out the 737. It would seem if they where looking for a regional replacement for this the phase in would have already started.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-08-20 20:01:47 and read 14864 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 3):
Let me ask again, though: is it better for Republic to own F9 than for WN to own F9? If UA did not want WN to grow that much in DEN, perhaps the Republic transaction is a "win" for UA.

Wn was better because Wn and Ua's goals in Denver are the same. Less capacity and higher fares. Rep has clearly stated that they intend to grow Denver and has made the A320 move as some sort of proof. We'll see if they follow through. An interview with Bedford I read today admitted he intended to move some F9 aircraft to MKE and he used MKE LAX as an example.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):
if United is that cross with Republic, why did they go ahead with the Mokulele interline after the Republic bid for Frontier was announced?

That's a great question. If this flying was some sort of quid pro quo with UA for more flying they wouldn't have an RFP. Thus it can't be a payback to REP. It may be that UA was happy with Rep's involvement until WN came along, but was then angry Republic didn't back out at their behest thinking WN was better for them. 2 big players is always better than 3. The timing of this makes it pretty inescapable that it is related to Republic.

Another possibility is that this is Mesa flying that is being taken away. Mesa has been reviled at the HQ for years, but the timing leads one to believe it is the severing of the REP relationship. If that is what it turns out to be, then is already on questionable ground trading guaranteed profitable flying for a 3 way war in Den and Mke.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DurangoMac
Posted 2009-08-20 20:34:04 and read 14767 times.

I see four options of why the RFP came out. The first is if UA is going to drop Republic. The second is if UA is going to drop YV. The third was UA drooping Republic and YV. The last is new flying all together.

OK reasoning behind the different options.

1. Republic is now competing directly with UA with F9 and YX. UA has decided it is going to sever it's relationship. Possible
2. YV's contract with UA allows for the DH2's and CRJ-200's to be dropped in Oct for removal by April-10. Possible
3. Options 1 and 2 just happen to happening at the same time. Not as likely.
4. OK well new flying is possible but I don't see it be the most likely option.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-20 20:36:22 and read 14757 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 10):
An interview with Bedford I read today admitted he intended to move some F9 aircraft to MKE and he used MKE LAX as an example.

He said it almost immediately after the auction, but I've assumed that form he git-go, and posted it here. There may also be some E170/E190 flying out of DEN, but I've assumed that from the git-go, as well.

And based on what SM has said, there may be some Frontier flying out of MKE, in their own right, but we've discussed that before, too.

Both CEO's have said they expect it will take about six months to get the right aircraft flying the right routes in the network.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 10):
It may be that UA was happy with Rep's involvement until WN came along, but was then angry Republic didn't back out at their behest thinking WN was better for them.

Many analysts thought Southwest buying Frontier was really bad news for United. Here's the WSJ:

http://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2009...r-frontier-is-bad-news-for-united/

WSJ: "Southwest’s Bid for Frontier Is Bad News for United"

And USA Today quotes several analysts:

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...em.aspx?type=blog&ak=68495861.blog

USA Today: "United, beware! Southwest's bid for Frontier spells trouble, analysts say"

Then there's Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyl...hives/2009/07/southwest_and_d.html

Business Week: "First, United Airlines (UAUA) is likely to face a much stronger competitor if Southwest acquires Frontier and rationalizes overlapping capacity in the Denver market. “Southwest’s move could ultimately force UAL to restructure its Denver hub which in the past we’ve argued needs to be done regardless,” analyst Dan McKenzie of Next Generation Equity Research wrote Friday in a note to clients."

So I don't know how unhappy United is that Republic won.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Sean-SAN-
Posted 2009-08-20 20:44:42 and read 14725 times.

Pinnacle will be bidding into this as well, they have a new TA with the pilots and are about 50% cheaper than Skywest and AirWis, about the same as GoJet.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 20:54:28 and read 14678 times.



Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 13):
Pinnacle will be bidding into this as well, they have a new TA with the pilots and are about 50% cheaper than Skywest and AirWis, about the same as GoJet.

Oh please say that aint so. If this is true, I would look at Pinnacle as the new Mesa. I have heard horror stories about the treatment of their employees. Yes their performance numbers look good, but when all your operations are dealing primarily with DTW and MSP, they will look good in any event.

The one thing I would want to know is when is the DL/NW contract up for them? I would have to believe that pursuing interests with United would jeopardize their ability to keep DL flying especially given the fact that DL would like to consolodate on their end. Certainly the 900 flying for DL is safe, but what about the 200 flying that was under NW contract?


The one wild card in any RFP in my opinion is going to be finding pilots to fly them. After the Colgan crash, are airlines going to risk the 250 hour guys again?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 20:58:41 and read 14659 times.

Mariner I understand where you are coming from, but my experience has shown that Wall Street doesn't get it entirely when it comes to aviation. The arguement that Southwest would become a strong competitor doesn't hold water with me because they already are a strong compeititor now. And we know the A 320s would go away in a deal. So if WN wanted to beef up DEN, the planes have to come from somewhere. I just don't see it hurting UA as much as the Republic deal.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Alias1024
Posted 2009-08-20 21:10:57 and read 14613 times.



Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 13):
Pinnacle will be bidding into this as well, they have a new TA with the pilots and are about 50% cheaper than Skywest and AirWis, about the same as GoJet.

What's 50% cheaper?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-20 21:15:08 and read 14592 times.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 15):
Mariner I understand where you are coming from, but my experience has shown that Wall Street doesn't get it entirely when it comes to aviation.

Nor - necessarily - with me. I was in conflict with just about every analyst out there on the results of the Frontier auction.

Most every analyst was wrong about that.

But this makes sense to me. United has clearly had a change of model at DEN, and has, to some extent, given away a certain portion of the market - the lower end. Remember Ted?

There is a section of the market, the money end, which Frontier and Southwest cannot get and which United can.

So I think United is probably happy to let Frontier and Southwest duke it out and stay above the fray.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 15):
I just don't see it hurting UA as much as the Republic deal.

Except for one thing - Frontier now has a second hub to consider. It isn't just about DEN anymore.

The problem, as I see it, is that if Republic bids on this RFP and doesn't get it, everyone will say it is retaliation by United.

It may just be that United prefers a cheaper bid.

mariner



[Edited 2009-08-20 21:18:52]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Doug_or
Posted 2009-08-20 21:16:15 and read 14582 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 14):
The one wild card in any RFP in my opinion is going to be finding pilots to fly them. After the Colgan crash, are airlines going to risk the 250 hour guys again?

My understanding is that some sort of ATP will be a requirement, but this won't hurt regional ability to find pilots in the near term. There are plenty of guys on furlough who should meet these requirements.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 14):
I would have to believe that pursuing interests with United would jeopardize their ability to keep DL flying

Didn't seem to stop Republic, SkyWest, or Mesa.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-20 21:27:43 and read 14537 times.



Quoting Doug_or (Reply 18):
Didn't seem to stop Republic, SkyWest, or Mesa.

That is true, but also remember that Delta right now is being run by a bunch of NW guys, and there was no NW Airlink carrier that actually flew for a different regional prior to the merger. I am waiting to see how the regional deals at DL play out with the Merger, but I gotta believe DL management is combing the Republic Contract very carefully looking for ways out of that deal to focus the 170 flying at Compass, and in light of the Republic deals, because getting MKE may be viewed as turf encroachment by DL, especially if Q400 flying from Lynx ends up there. Also the Mesa contract is still in court, and who knows when that will be ruled on. As far as Skywest, they were an original Delta Connection carrier, and plus their parent company owns ASA which is exclusively a DL carrier and also an original one.


This isn't your fathers Delta anymore.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-20 21:34:40 and read 14505 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 19):
I am waiting to see how the regional deals at DL play out with the Merger, but I gotta believe DL management is combing the Republic Contract very carefully looking for ways out of that deal to focus the 170 flying at Compass, and in light of the Republic deals, because getting MKE may be viewed as turf encroachment by DL, especially if Q400 flying from Lynx ends up there.

All that may happen, I cannot predict the future.

All I know is that Delta agreed to Republic's purchase of Midwest, and may even have encouraged it.

As part owner of Midwest, Delta had to be told what Republic's plans for Midwest were, and gave their Midwest shareholding to Republic, effectively for free.

They also expanded their code share with Republic/Midwest. the reason may not be hard to guess. I would think Delta is not unhappy to see someone crimp Airtran's style a little at MKE.

And since the code share with Frontier was already in the works, presumably Delta was told about it and presumably didn't feel too unhappy about that, either.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Doug_or
Posted 2009-08-20 21:42:20 and read 14481 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 19):
there was no NW Airlink carrier that actually flew for a different regional prior to the merger.

I'm pretty sure the DL -900s came before NW and DL merged.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: PWMRamper
Posted 2009-08-20 22:50:05 and read 14336 times.

This coupled with other rumors of YV going away and ZW having talks with United again makes me wonder.

The problem is that ZW only has 200's...with long leases on them. Unless they got new aircraft (such as a CRJ900, which I believe a 200 pilot is able to fly), I can't see them flying for United.

But getting new aircraft takes time... (though I have no idea how much).

I would LOVE it if YV went away and ZW worked for United again.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Jolau1701
Posted 2009-08-20 23:18:23 and read 14290 times.



Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 22):
The problem is that ZW only has 200's...with long leases on them. Unless they got new aircraft (such as a CRJ900, which I believe a 200 pilot is able to fly), I can't see them flying for United.

First of all, UA doesn't use CRJ900s or any larger variant of the EMB170, and wouldn't let any of its Express carriers use it because of the 70-seat slope clause. If United were to do so, these planes would be mainline, which I don't see happening either.

Second of all, I think Mesa's flying in the IAD region would have to be CRJ200/700 flying. My thought on this would be ZW gets YV's CRJ200 flying, maybe XE RP or AX gets some of it too replacing the CRJ200 with an ERJ145. G7 gets CRJ700's or S5 replaces CRJ700s with EMB170s.

Not sure if OO will enter IAD

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: PWMRamper
Posted 2009-08-20 23:41:57 and read 14258 times.



Quoting Jolau1701 (Reply 23):

I've heard from numerous people OO doesn't want anything to do with anything on the east coast. Granted, there's nothing I've read that actually confirms that, but it seems to be fairly well known.

Also, the 70-seat slope clause specifically excludes ZW I thought. They are the ONLY express carrier United will let fly planes larger than 70 seats, up to 90 or something like that.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: AznCSA4QF744ER
Posted 2009-08-21 01:52:04 and read 14152 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 19):
Skywest, they were an original Delta Connection carrier, and plus their parent company owns ASA which is exclusively a DL carrier and also an original one.

OO is the original DLC but also, prior to the NWA/DAL merger OO agreed to purchased ASA with some attachments. The purchase of ASA also includes ASA and OO flying contracts for a long long time. Big grin Jerry and his gangs in SGU is very smart....

Quoting Jolau1701 (Reply 23):
Not sure if OO will enter IAD



Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 24):
I've heard from numerous people OO doesn't want anything to do with anything on the east coast. Granted, there's nothing I've read that actually confirms that, but it seems to be fairly well known.

OO will not enter IAD market. I believes this was determined when OH had their meltdown so years ago, literally shutting down CVG. OO's flying for UAX operates heavily out of DEN, LAX, ORD, and SFO. God for bid, should something happens to OO operations UA would literally shut down.

Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 24):
Also, the 70-seat slope clause specifically excludes ZW I thought. They are the ONLY express carrier United will let fly planes larger than 70 seats, up to 90 or something like that.

That's partially correct. It only exclude ZW's Bae146 operated flights into and out of ASE.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Jolau1701
Posted 2009-08-21 02:12:38 and read 14556 times.



Quoting AznCSA4QF744ER (Reply 25):
I believes this was determined when OH had their meltdown so years ago, literally shutting down CVG.

If memory serves me right, OH went on strike. OO is non-union and can't strike.
The only time OO would melt down like that would be for some freak computer mishap or something similar.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DeltaL1011man
Posted 2009-08-21 05:20:18 and read 14326 times.



Quoting Doug_or (Reply 21):
I'm pretty sure the DL -900s came before NW and DL merged.

9E did start 900 DCI flights for DL pre-merger. 16 ATL based A/C.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
They also expanded their code share with Republic/Midwest.

huh? They did with Midwest before it was bought by RW. At that point Delta was part owner......It would (one would think) help Midwest make money which would help DL make money. Delta really has no say so. At this point they will just deal with it and when the time comes to pull the RP and S5 contracts they will do so.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
Delta had to be told what Republic's plans for Midwest were, and gave their Midwest shareholding to Republic, effectively for free.

DL and TGP(TPG? what ever it was called)

Quoting Apodino (Reply 19):
I am waiting to see how the regional deals at DL play out with the Merger

They will be dumping planes and carriers as the contracts/leases come up. OO,EV, and 9E are safe. S5 and RP are now in the same boat as Freedom. As soon as it can get dumped its gone.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 19):
but I gotta believe DL management is combing the Republic Contract very carefully looking for ways out of that deal to focus the 170 flying at Compass

They have no reason to pull the contracts. The DALPA is looking to get it cumped due to scope but it isn't likely. Only way S5 will be gone is if DL can work out a deal to dump them and but the E75s.

Quoting AznCSA4QF744ER (Reply 25):
The purchase of ASA also includes ASA and OO flying contracts for a long long time

EV's contrac tis to 2020 but AFAIK no new deal was made with OO. Not sure when that contract is up. It doesn't matter, DL wont dump OO.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Goldenshield
Posted 2009-08-21 06:00:40 and read 14138 times.

Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 24):
I've heard from numerous people OO doesn't want anything to do with anything on the east coast. Granted, there's nothing I've read that actually confirms that, but it seems to be fairly well known.

SkyWest has flown to the east coast for at least 5-6 years for UA, but not out of IAD. With Midwest, the airline has experience with Newark, and now, LGA with DL. Quite frankly, though, the few things the airline can't do all involve going to places outside of their current fleet's range, and crossing oceans.

-------------------

As far as the "original DLC carrier" thing, that honor would go to ASA. SkyWest signed on with Western a year AFTER ASA did with DL, and only a few months before the DL/Western merger.

[Edited 2009-08-21 06:57:55]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: 727forever
Posted 2009-08-21 06:52:32 and read 13840 times.



Quoting AznCSA4QF744ER (Reply 25):
That's partially correct. It only exclude ZW's Bae146 operated flights into and out of ASE.

The language included specific tail numbers on airplanes so that if the airplanes were retired the deal was null and void.

727forever

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Saab2000
Posted 2009-08-21 07:07:00 and read 13721 times.



Quoting 727forever (Reply 29):
The language included specific tail numbers on airplanes so that if the airplanes were retired the deal was null and void.

The language of the contract states that those can be replaced with up to 18 airplanes of like size and configuration, not to exceed 80 seats. Something like that.

Not saying anything will happen, but I don't think the waiver in the contract died when the BAe-146s went away.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DurangoMac
Posted 2009-08-21 07:31:42 and read 13550 times.



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 27):
EV's contrac tis to 2020 but AFAIK no new deal was made with OO. Not sure when that contract is up. It doesn't matter, DL wont dump OO.

The contracts for EV and OO are almost identical.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: VictorKilo
Posted 2009-08-21 07:53:27 and read 13448 times.

United has to make a decision in October 2009 as to the 10 Mesa DH2 and 26 Mesa CR2 that can be removed in April 2010. My guess is that this RFP is in preparation for that decision Mesa's 10Q filing with the SEC (found here) is pretty clear on the implications of losing the flying on Mesa.

Quote:
While the Company currently expects to continue its go! operations and to continue to serve its three code-share partners, as discussed more fully below, the Company's ability to fund its operations over the next 12 months is dependent on the outcome of a number of issues facing its business, including, specifically...the extension of the flying of its CRJ-200s and Dash-8 aircraft under its code-share agreement with United..... If the Company is unable to successfully resolve these matters, or, if necessary, access additional sources of capital to fund its operations, the Company will be forced to seek protection under applicable reorganization laws in order to avoid or delay actions by its creditors and lessors.

The United RFP may include a contingency plan to cover additional flying with United should Mesa no longer be able to operate the CR7's if it loses the CR2/DH2 contracts.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Saab2000
Posted 2009-08-21 08:12:22 and read 13294 times.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for AWAC. We really, really need a morale boost and this would be a huge one.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: NorCal
Posted 2009-08-21 08:21:43 and read 13239 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):
if United is that cross with Republic, why did they go ahead with the Mokulele interline after the Republic bid for Frontier was announced?

I agree, United might not be that cross with Republic actually. I read this on another forum (i.e. take it with a grain of salt) and it's an interesting theory worthy of bringing up (might be borderline conspiracy theory though) debate among yourselves the validity of the argument. I wouldn't put it past Tilton to try and do something like this though, every airline is struggling to survive and I'm sure there a very creative and unusual ideas being discussed in board room right now. For full disclosure, this is supposedly from a pilot to an MEC chair so take it for what it's worth.

Subject: Resolution & Republic Airways Holdings

I wanted to see if anything came of my resolution for half time line flying, especially since the flight attendants now have 'partnerships' with benefits. Same thing, different name.

Also, I wanted to address this Republic Airways Holdings maneuver that is going on now:

I took a jet for jobs position with Chautauqua during the last furlough. I was working there while they were starting the 170 operation. It took them extensive time, money and effort to try and get the Republic operating certificate up and running, but, during that time, they were able to buy the dying certificate of Shuttle America and morph it into the United 170 operation very quickly and cheaply. Bryan Bedford, Republic Airways Holdings CEO, learned very quickly that buying a dying certificate was much cheaper and faster to start an airline than building one from the ground up.

Last year I was jumpseating one of Shuttle America's planes. The captain was very senior and one I had flown with. He asked me if I had heard about the company's plan to start a 90 seat carrier. I said no and that none of the major carriers had given up scope for that. He said 'no, they plan on joining it with the Star Alliance." I immediately shut up and went home to research their SEC filings for 190s. There were none at the time.

This last month I have watched carefully while Republic has purchased Midwest Express and has already expressed intent to eliminate the Boeings and replace them with 190s. In addition, they have bid on Frontier and will most likely get outbid by SWA. This is purely a defensive purchase by SWA to prevent Republic from being able to start a national low-cost carrier virtually ovemight by buying existing certificates. It is my understanding that Republic also bid on AirTran. If they had succeeded, they would have started a low-cost carrier in a couple of months with hubs in Denver, Atlanta and (Milwaukee) soon to be our B gates in Chicago.

The plan to start a 90+ seat low-cost carrier that joins the Star Alliance is crystal clear to me now. Continental, United and USAirways are all complicit in this. They have been working with Bryan Bedford for years on the execution of this plan. CAL and UAL eliminated their 737 fleets because they intend to replace this flying with the soon-to-be Star Alliance partner of Midwest Express. A USAirways pilot told me 2 days ago that the unannounced rumor is that USAir intends to eliminate their 190 fleet starting in January. Just a year ago USAir said this was their most profitable fleet. Perfect timing for Midwest Express 190s to be up and running!

Republic Airways Holdings and "investors" would not have made such a bold financial move if they were not assured of success. CAL and UAL would not have already eliminated their feeder fleets if they were not assured of success. Continental, United, USAirways and Republic Airways Holding are sure to have been lobbying Washington hard over to past years to set this up for success.

I do not have to explain the dangers of this to you on many different levels. Clearly they do not need scope relief. They intend to just take it. They showed their hand to me with the intent to purchase Frontier. They just intend to work out the kinks with the 190s and then replace all the Airbus flying in the future as well. Glenn Tilton fully expects, and will get the elimination of all domestic flying at United Airlines using this operation. You can plan on it!

I really see no way of stopping this unless the pilots of CAL, UAL, USAirway and ALPA take a stand on this. ALPA must work on stopping Midwest Express (or its future name and form) from joining the Star Alliance. These carriers are working together because with the Star Alliance set up in this way they effective take all the wind out of the union sails! If anyone of these carriers ever threatens a strike, the other carriers can pick up the slack by rerouting the tickets through the Star Alliance. In addition, they will easily and effectively outsource all of this flying to cheaper labor. I cannot believe they are going to succeed in this way with a DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY!

Please just let me know that our union has already figured this out or is aware of the plan. If we move forward with our heads in the sand they will run all 3 carriers over. SWA just thought outside the box with their blocking purchase of Frontier. Maybe our unions should have thought outside the box and purchased Midwest Express (it was sooooo cheap). We need to outmaneuver them by preventing growth or by blocking this in DC. Hell, get competing carriers like SWA and Delta to use their clout in DC to stop the Star Alliance. At this point, I don't give a (expletive deleted)

Just an additional point I thought of while pulling weeds ... Republic Airways Holdings has been spending 10s of millions of dollars to float the Frontier and Midwest Express certificates for the better part of a year. Republic could have made an attempt to purchase them at any time in that time frame without spending all that money. It was not until CAL was approved to join the Star Alliance that Republic moved forward with their attempt to purchase Midwest and Frontier. Almost immediately in
fact. They had to make sure all the pieces were in place before the final piece of the puzzle was added. Without CAL they would not have had appropriate international coverage in the event of a strike by UAL. Glenn Tilton is the mastermind. This is why his board is so patient with him in downsizing and losing money ...there is a higher goal. They know in the end the
domestic flying will be covered by the new Star Alliance partner. It also makes the recent announcement that UAL wants to replace only its international fleet valid.

Watch this one! If they get Frontier and then make another play for AirTran, DAL will have the combination of UAL, CAL, 'USAir, and the new low-cost AirTran morph thing as a unified carrier operating out of ATL. DAL mgmt should put the spank on this one!

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Joeljack
Posted 2009-08-21 08:43:35 and read 13113 times.

Wow...very interesting...I'm taking it with a grain of salt but there are just too many pieces there to not have some validity.

As long as this 190 carrier lets me earn miles toward UA MM status...I'm just fine with the whole deal!!!

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Kstatepilot
Posted 2009-08-21 09:10:24 and read 12922 times.

So does anybody have any hard information as to if UA is going to get rid of the YV D8/200 flying? I do know that replacing the D8's out of DEN would be quite challenging, as no other carrier that operates for UA could get airplanes out that there that quick.

Also YV has the option of replacing those 200's for 700's at a 2 to 1 deal, only if they can find financing.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mir
Posted 2009-08-21 09:28:54 and read 12811 times.



Quoting NorCal (Reply 34):
might be borderline conspiracy theory though

Sure reads that way. I'd take it with a few very large grains of salt.

-Mir

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: AznCSA4QF744ER
Posted 2009-08-21 09:50:07 and read 12712 times.

Quoting Jolau1701 (Reply 26):
If memory serves me right, OH went on strike. OO is non-union and can't strike. The only time OO would melt down like that would be for some freak computer mishap or something similar.

Who said anything about union? That's another issue, but my point is anything were to go wrong with OO operations UA would suffer. Thus, UA does not want OO to operates at all 5 hubs.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 27):
V's contrac tis to 2020 but AFAIK no new deal was made with OO. Not sure when that contract is up. It doesn't matter, DL wont dump OO.

I can't remember the years on OO but it's pretty close to EV's contract.

[Edited 2009-08-21 09:55:30]

[Edited 2009-08-21 09:56:22]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-21 11:00:36 and read 12385 times.



Quoting Mir (Reply 37):
Sure reads that way. I'd take it with a few very large grains of salt.


A very large grain of salt, if only because of this:

Quoting NorCal (Reply 34):
They just intend to work out the kinks with the 190s and then replace all the Airbus flying in the future as well.

Frontier has a dozen A320's on order. I am told that the Airbus person was at Frontier's SOTA yesterday, smiling a lot.

And Midwest staff have reported here that Bryan Bedford has said he is talking to both Boeing and Airbus about an order. The staff are guessing Airbus, because a few Frontier A319's will go to MKE.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 11:26:58 and read 12232 times.

Perception means nothing. Colgan is still very much at play. They're cheap! If perception meant anything why would NWA have continued to grow Pinnacle after several highly publicized accidents and incidents? Why would DL have picked them for more 900 flying? It all boils down to cost. As for the Pinnacle TA... it is just that. It hasn't even been approved by the MEC and therefore hasn't even been voted on by the pilots. It means nothing at this point.

IMO... ALL companies with the ability will be looking to get onboard with this new business. UA has proven in the past that quality didn't matter, but the lowest bidder does.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 11:33:00 and read 12203 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 40):
They're cheap! If perception meant anything why would NWA have continued to grow Pinnacle after several highly publicized accidents and incidents?

In which highly publicized accident or incident has 9E killed a whole bunch of passengers?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 11:54:29 and read 12096 times.

HIB in the late 90s, when they were Express Airlines. Other than that, while there were no passengers killed, the 3701, TVC, MKE accidents all made a lot of noise. Not to mention all the other incidents that have happened that the public doesn't know about, but DL/NW does.

The bottom line is that there will not be a public revolt by passengers if Colgan gets new business. The public has proven over and over again... that they only really care about price. Many only make a big deal about safety when it's glorified in the media and convenient to them. Have a mx or wx issue that is safety related that causes a delay or cancelation? It's complete hell for the gate agent and crew.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 12:09:57 and read 12012 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 42):
Other than that, while there were no passengers killed, the 3701, TVC, MKE accidents all made a lot of noise.

Are you arguing that either TVC or MKE made as much noise as 9L in BUF?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 12:25:25 and read 11920 times.

No, I'm not. I'm arguing that those incidents were publicized and that's the point. It looked poorly on NWA and Pinnacle, yet none of the bad press for Pinnacle ever stopped NWA from allowing them to operate on their behalf. The Colgan accident will fade into history much like every other big event.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 12:30:07 and read 11885 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 44):
The Colgan accident will fade into history much like every other big event.

How many accidents spur publicized legislative proposals as the 9L accident has?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 12:40:03 and read 11824 times.

Ever heard of "the FARs are written in blood?" Most our rules are because of an accident that killed people. Most the procedures and policies at airlines are because of accidents and incidents. We had several procedures and policy changes in reaction to the Comair crash. While not legislated by our government, it still made an impact. None of the proposed legislation has even taken place yet Mesaba has already implemented many changes in the wake of the Colgan crash. Not to mention, Mesaba already exceeded the standards for stall training and is one of the only airlines to do so.

I'm not denying that the Colgan crash made waves. But the waves generated are nothing new. And as far as the public or a potential mainline caring enough to never fly or do business with them is crazy.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 13:16:44 and read 11643 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 46):
I'm not denying that the Colgan crash made waves. But the waves generated are nothing new.

If they're nothing new, why don't you point to some other examples of crashes after which people in Congress proposed legislation?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Goldenshield
Posted 2009-08-21 13:30:20 and read 11578 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 46):
Most the procedures and policies at airlines are because of accidents and incidents.

According to ALPA, aviation wouldn't exist if it wasn't for them.  Wink

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 13:33:11 and read 11564 times.

Seriously... these concerns that are being raised are nothing new. Issues with fatigue, training and pay have always been raised by pilots through their own voices or via the unions. It always falls on deaf ears by the FAA and the companies involved. The NTSB might agree, but the FAA is the one to make the rules. With congress getting involved, it raises the issues to a higher level, and perhaps something will actually get done. However, the concerns are indeed nothing new and the Colgan crash only brought the issues up, yet again.

Again... I'm not denying the fact that the Colgan crash has made a big splash in the publics face. However, it hasn't uncovered anything shocking that hasn't already been discussed and will likely soon be forgotten by the flying public. Once again... the public has a short memory and have likely moved on and are flying to their summer vacations without another thought about Colgan.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 13:40:32 and read 11515 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 49):
Once again... the public has a short memory and have likely moved on and are flying to their summer vacations without another thought about Colgan.

But you're arguing by assertion.

Even though there has been more noise about the 9L accident than about most accidents, the public will surely forget it. I don't understand what you're basing this assertion on.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 13:50:56 and read 11418 times.

I'm basing it on our culture. Many are quick to forget and are overjoyed to move on to the latest sensation and craze that is making headlines, be it air safety, reality show divorces, sport team scandals or the latest child murder case.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 13:53:32 and read 11411 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 51):
Many are quick to forget

They are quick to forget unless, as seems to have happened several times with the BUF crash, they keep getting reminded.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 14:01:54 and read 11374 times.

Yes, but my original point is that this accident and occasionally being reminded by a poorly produced news report isn't going to make people care enough to never fly a Colgan operated flight again. And it's not going to make UA completely ignore a bid from Colgan should Colgan want a piece of what UA is offering. Airlines and the average traveler have proven time and time again, for the right price, anything goes.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 14:28:59 and read 11251 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 53):
And it's not going to make UA completely ignore a bid from Colgan should Colgan want a piece of what UA is offering.

Completely ignore? Maybe not. Think twice? I'd say so...

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Azjubilee
Posted 2009-08-21 16:28:15 and read 10890 times.

So we agree... UA isn't going to completely discount a Colgan bid. All of this discussion and you've helped me make my point. Thanks man! That's all I was trying to say.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Zone1
Posted 2009-08-21 16:48:01 and read 10776 times.



Quoting Mir (Reply 37):

Sure reads that way. I'd take it with a few very large grains of salt.

-Mir

I agree. Even though it might look otherwise, just because an airline wants to join Star, doesn't mean they can. Which current Star airline would sponsor Republic to join? With UA, CO, and US all voting no in a hypothetical vote, I doubt any of the other airlines would feel so strongly to vote against the biggies. LH would probably vote with UA also. Just one no vote is usually all it takes with these things anyway. Look at how long MH has been blackballed by AF out of SkyTeam.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: CWAFlyer
Posted 2009-08-21 18:21:32 and read 10605 times.



Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 28):
As far as the "original DLC carrier" thing, that honor would go to ASA. SkyWest signed on with Western a year AFTER ASA did with DL, and only a few months before the DL/Western merger.

Not exactly how it shook down. SkyWest became a Western Express carrier in 1985. Delta acquired Western in December 1986 and was finalized on April 1, 1987.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Crjfixer
Posted 2009-08-21 18:54:10 and read 10573 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 40):
Perception means nothing. Colgan is still very much at play. They're cheap! If perception meant anything why would NWA have continued to grow Pinnacle after several highly publicized accidents and incidents? Why would DL have picked them for more 900 flying? It all boils down to cost. As for the Pinnacle TA... it is just that. It hasn't even been approved by the MEC and therefore hasn't even been voted on by the pilots. It means nothing at this point.

If the flying is for jets Pinnacle would fly them, if it was for turboprops Colgan would fly them.....From what i hear this bid is for CRJ-900's So if Pinnacle did win the bid the a/c would be operated by 9E.

From what i hear about the Pilots new contract, the few that have seen it were quite pleased and believe it to be a good deal on the crews end.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-21 19:16:01 and read 10534 times.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 55):
All of this discussion and you've helped me make my point. Thanks man! That's all I was trying to say.

It's important, though, for me to emphasize that if 9L is only a bit cheaper than the next cheapest (and I'm deliberately leaving "a bit" ambiguous), the BUF accident and the attendant publicity might hurt them, especially given that UA has a competitor in ORD that loves to jump on the advantages in its regional service (see the all jet ads of the late 90s).

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-08-21 20:10:31 and read 10503 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
Many analysts thought Southwest buying Frontier was really bad news for United. Here's the WSJ:

Like I said, WN would reduce DEN capacity through the merger (they made that pretty clear) , REP seems to be adding to it. That's the bottom line. UA's results in DEN are tied to how much capacity there is in Denver. Whoever, can say whatever they want, but more competitive capacity=BAD...less capacity=GOOD. It's pretty simple. Of course, if you believe REP is going to shrink F9 now in DEN then that would change the equation, but you seem to be arguing the opposite point.

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 32):
United has to make a decision in October 2009 as to the 10 Mesa DH2 and 26 Mesa CR2 that can be removed in April 2010. My guess is that this RFP is in preparation for that decision Mesa's 10Q filing with the SEC (found here) is pretty clear on the implications of losing the flying on Mesa.

That's the opposite possibility. If UA were to award the Mesa flying to Lynx/Republic that would really flip things over to implying UA is involved with the F9 deal. F9 spoke of a looming Q400 for-hire deal with a major airline, perhaps it was UA? Regardless, this RFP is the key to determining what UA's position regarding F9/REP will be going forward.

I still think the best outcome all around is for F9 to become a Ted-like entity for UA in DEN with Lynx becoming UA Express. Then REP/UA/F9 are all going to make the most money possible and be allied against WN. Not sure UA's management is smart enough to understand that, but again this RFP may reveal which side they are on.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-21 20:24:59 and read 10473 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 60):
Of course, if you believe REP is going to shrink F9 now in DEN then that would change the equation, but you seem to be arguing the opposite point.

I'm not arguing anything. I just quoted some analysts - I didn't say I agreed with them, and in at least a few cases, I don't think they did their homework.

But that's often true. I just go by what has been said and take it at face value.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 60):
If UA were to award the Mesa flying to Lynx/Republic that would really flip things over to implying UA is involved with the F9 deal.

People - some here - told me that United was discussing a possible deal with Frontier/Lynx yonks ago, before Republic was in the picture.

I'm pretty sure it was discussed in a thread.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Bhmdiversion
Posted 2009-08-22 03:41:15 and read 10312 times.

Let's not forget the other players... EV. EV has lost out on many block hours from DL. EV has spoken with other carriers to pick up flying but no one is biting. This might be a long shot, but at least someone has to throw them in...

EV's contract with Delta states that they must be the #2 lowest DCI carrier by the end of their 2nd year (which ends up in November). Most of the EV ground handling has been put up for RFP and most have been lost. The remaining cities are on the block now and it might come down to EV becoming the next RP.

OO does not want IAD. That is another nightmare they do not want to join on the fun. All of the hubs that OO flys into is in direct correlation to how much flying is done out of them. OO was told they could have IAD if YV was out of the picture. Not gonna happen in my view...

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: SLUAviator
Posted 2009-08-22 13:17:25 and read 10099 times.

The OO newspaper said a few months ago when we began getting new UA 700s the new planes were not going to IAD. Did that mean they will not be based there or did it mean they were never going to pass through? I took it to mean we are not going there anytime soon unless I am diverting there. If UA offered OO enough flying to open an IAD base or additional flying and flowing planes through and we said no, we'd either be crazy or have some other kind of deal locked up and not announced yet and did not need/were unable to cover the flying. Things can and do change in the regional game on short notice, so I would not be surprised to see us in IAD in the future. Hell, we just started LGA flying so why not IAD?

Regardless of how good or bad regionals are perceived, they are contractors. We fly at the whim of our major partners. The nature of our business model means regionals have to listen to and respond to all RFPs and offers--especially in this economy. Due diligence requires it. I am not JA's confidant but good business sense says OO will not say no to anything just because we don't want anything to do with it right off the bat. It will be considered then either bid on or not bid on.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-22 13:26:39 and read 10076 times.



Quoting Bhmdiversion (Reply 62):
OO does not want IAD. That is another nightmare they do not want to join on the fun.

What's wrong with IAD? The airport itself is fine, and if OO didn't get the problem routes (EWR, PHL, LGA), which are mostly operated by AX, not YV, IAD wouldn't be a problem for them at all.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DurangoMac
Posted 2009-08-22 15:21:17 and read 9982 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 64):
What's wrong with IAD? The airport itself is fine, and if OO didn't get the problem routes (EWR, PHL, LGA), which are mostly operated by AX, not YV, IAD wouldn't be a problem for them at all.

It's because of the North East Corridor. It is so congested in the NE that OO would prefer to just stay out of it. When YX said they were pulling MKE-EWR, OO was ascetic because it was such a pain to operate.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-22 15:55:36 and read 9926 times.



Quoting DurangoMac (Reply 65):
It's because of the North East Corridor. It is so congested in the NE that OO would prefer to just stay out of it.

It's not the whole corridor, though. It's just the few bad airports, and AX operates almost all the 50 seat flights to those airports.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Ca2ohhp
Posted 2009-08-22 17:21:58 and read 9854 times.



Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 22):
I would LOVE it if YV went away and ZW worked for United again.

Funny, I used to say that when I was stuck working YV flights. Unfortunately I now have the opportunity to work both ZW and YV side by side. In my humble opinion, ZW needs to get their own house in order before bidding on any new flying. In the last 12 months, ZW has made YV look operationally good. ZW's maintenance performance has been nothing short of awful, but rumor is pilot negotiations are ongoing (no clue if there's any truth to it). Their dispatch group hasn't made it easier either.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-08-22 22:15:47 and read 9697 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 61):
People - some here - told me that United was discussing a possible deal with Frontier/Lynx yonks ago, before Republic was in the picture.

I've been saying that. I think REP would have been stupid enough to proceed without UA's blessing, but who knows if they still have UA's blessing. UA is a pretty poorly run airline, I can see their opinion changing from week to week.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Rjnut
Posted 2009-08-23 06:13:39 and read 9593 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 60):
I still think the best outcome all around is for F9 to become a Ted-like entity for UA in DEN with Lynx becoming UA Express. Then REP/UA/F9 are all going to make the most money possible and be allied against WN. Not sure UA's management is smart enough to understand that, but again this RFP may reveal which side they are on.

Thats sort of what I envision,... with F9 maintaining their own idientity much like Air Wisconsin did when they initially hooked up with UA eons ago!

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Doug_or
Posted 2009-08-23 07:25:44 and read 9524 times.



Quoting AznCSA4QF744ER (Reply 38):
Who said anything about union? That's another issue, but my point is anything were to go wrong with OO operations UA would suffer. Thus, UA does not want OO to operates at all 5 hubs.

That makes no sense whatsoever. The whole problem with the OH strike was that they were huge in CVG. If they had been spread evenly around the system it would not have been so bad. At any rate, if UA was worried about an OO meltdown they wouldn't have given them so much flying. OO operates something like 85% as many daily UA departures as mainline does.

Quoting Bhmdiversion (Reply 62):
OO does not want IAD. That is another nightmare they do not want to join on the fun. All of the hubs that OO flys into is in direct correlation to how much flying is done out of them. OO was told they could have IAD if YV was out of the picture. Not gonna happen in my view...

Management has said this numerous times, but I wonder if the current climate might change this view, or if they would be as opposed to bidding for the flying with EV. I really don't understand how IAD is worse than ORD (at least before the new runway. I haven't flown through since then).

And what are you trying to say in the second sentence?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DeltaL1011man
Posted 2009-08-23 09:06:56 and read 9441 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 60):
I still think the best outcome all around is for F9 to become a Ted-like entity for UA in DEN with Lynx becoming UA Express. Then REP/UA/F9 are all going to make the most money possible and be allied against WN. Not sure UA's management is smart enough to understand that, but again this RFP may reveal which side they are on.

Yea I'm sure the pilots/FA Unions would go for that. Not sure but I believe what your talking about is against UA's scope.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Ordbosshog
Posted 2009-08-23 09:35:38 and read 9414 times.



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 71):
Quoting Enilria (Reply 60):
I still think the best outcome all around is for F9 to become a Ted-like entity for UA in DEN with Lynx becoming UA Express. Then REP/UA/F9 are all going to make the most money possible and be allied against WN. Not sure UA's management is smart enough to understand that, but again this RFP may reveal which side they are on.

Yea I'm sure the pilots/FA Unions would go for that. Not sure but I believe what your talking about is against UA's scope.

Wait a minute.... UA is going to make F9 a carrier that has a better Y on board product a discount carrier...... who thought of this one? If United wanted F9 they would have talked with Republic about it before all this went down. What sense would it make to have a discount carrier that has a better on board product than your mainline flights. I do not see UA having enough money to pay the licensing fee for the Live TV on their mainline aircraft. TED was a failure. It initially boosted employee moral, but passengers (and I speak as one of them) HATED it. Who wants to fly ORD-LAS on a TED flight with no option of F class?

There are still rumors flying around that Shuttle America will be on the way out as they are symbolically part of UA's major competitor in DEN. But getting back on topic.


It seems as though OO does not have that many spare frames right now to pick up flying (Other than 50 seaters that will be coming out of the YX operation?). YV seems to be teetering on total destruction when it comes to UA. G7 recently placed a larger order for more CRJ-700 NexGens. My guess would be G7 will place a bid. In my opinion UA is not always about quality over perceived value. If they think they can save a buck on the front side, they will go for it (at least it seems that way). Not to say that G7 is not a quality operator. I am just saying UA does not seem to follow logical thinking in these situations.

I would be surprised if we saw a 90 seater for UA without mainline pilots in the front. I would venture to say UA moral is on the rise at the moment. UA would be shooting themselves in the foot if they were too try and stick a looser scope clause in the contract with all of the mainline aircraft that are being parked in the desert.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: United1
Posted 2009-08-23 10:02:15 and read 9383 times.



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 71):
Not sure but I believe what your talking about is against UA's scope.

Operating the Airbusi, or EMB-190s via a capacity purchase agreement (ie UAX) or as a separate wholly owned subsidiary would be against UAs current scope agreements. Simply code sharing with F9 would not be.

Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
If United wanted F9 they would have talked with Republic about it before all this went down. What sense would it make to have a discount carrier that has a better on board product than your mainline flights.

Who says they didn't talk with F9 before any of this happened? Also whether its a better onboard product or not is arguable but if you take a look at the numbers UA mainline on average gets a higher amount of revenue per passenger then F9 does.

Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
I would be surprised if we saw a 90 seater for UA without mainline pilots in the front. I

I would be surprised as well if UAX received 90 seat jets, however I think its a pretty good bet that UA Mainline is looking at EMB-190/195 aircraft. I'm sure UA will run the numbers after the pilots union negotiations are complete but they are discussing pay rates for the larger EMBs.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-08-23 11:08:29 and read 9306 times.



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 71):
Not sure but I believe what your talking about is against UA's scope.

It isn't since the Ch11. UA has put their code on US Airways domestic operations for years. UA will put their code on B6 eventually due to the LH tie-in. F9 makes even more sense.

BTW, did anybody else realize that US closing their LGA operation makes it a lot easier for B6 to join Star. Now they have just EWR and JFK, while SkyTeam has LGA and JFK.

Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
If United wanted F9 they would have talked with Republic about it before all this went down.

It's a fact that they talked about it in the week before it was announced. What we don't know for sure is who (if anyone) left the meeting happy.

Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
I do not see UA having enough money to pay the licensing fee for the Live TV on their mainline aircraft.

There is a long tradition of having different IFE on different products (e.g. Song). A Ted-ish F9 could certainly have LTV without UA getting it.

Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
TED was a failure.

It was and it wasn't. It kept pressure on F9. Absent Ted, F9 would have made a lot of money during that period. Ted allowed UA to put loss-leader capacity at the lowest possible cost into leisure markets under attack from LCCs. Once WN came to DEN, WN filled the role of pressuring F9 and Ted was no longer needed.

Anyway, F9 performing Ted-like missions for UA is much less stupid (even smart) because it co-opts a competitor and thus stabilizes prices and reduces competition/capacity. The hard part is the route network. Who flies to LAX, who flies to LGA? I can imagine a scenario where UA gives F9 a bunch of routes like OMA and ABQ where UA puts their code on F9 and F9 operates almost like UA Express. In major markets like LGA and LAX, you might see the two carriers continue to compete...or you could even see the F9 code on UA. All speculation, but I assure it is an analysis that has been done many times by consultants, United, and Frontier.

We all know that when B6 joins Star it's gonna happen there, so why not F9?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: IndyWA
Posted 2009-08-23 12:29:20 and read 9230 times.



Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
There are still rumors flying around that Shuttle America will be on the way out as they are symbolically part of UA's major competitor in DEN. But getting back on topic.

Not until the contract is up at least. Although RAH bought Frontier, Shuttle America did not. Do you see what I'm saying? Shuttle America is doing nothing to violate the contract (just like how Republic, Shuttle, and Chautauqua are all able to get around scope clauses by having certain aircraft on certain certificates).

The truth is, no one knows what's going to happen until it is officially announced. There are rumours about EVERYTHING right now. And as someone who has their career on the line, I'm personally waiting for fact, not rumour.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 13:17:30 and read 9212 times.



Quoting Ordbosshog (Reply 72):
There are still rumors flying around that Shuttle America will be on the way out as they are symbolically part of UA's major competitor in DEN.

That would be interesting. Republic could immediately transfer the Shuttle America fleet to their own airlines - Frontier, Midwest and Mokulele - and run them in direct competition with United.

I would have thought United would prefer to have them under their own direction, but I guess anything's possible.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: KGAIflyer
Posted 2009-08-23 14:20:58 and read 9157 times.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 76):
There are still rumors flying around that Shuttle America will be on the way out as they are symbolically part of UA's major competitor in DEN.

That might be strategic for DEN, but it would be disastrous at IAD.

*All* UA service from Dulles to both Miami and New Orleans is now by S5 exclusively. A healthy dollop of service to Houston and Norfolk is by S5. They are even helping Mesa out with their IAD-JFK service.

I guess UA will have to un-retire a few 735s.   

[Edited 2009-08-23 14:43:58]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 14:22:40 and read 9150 times.



Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 77):
That might be strategic for DEN, but it would disastrous at IAD.

Republic - that is Frontier/Midwest - wouldn't to put 'em at IAD.  confused 

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: KGAIflyer
Posted 2009-08-23 14:30:32 and read 9129 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 78):
Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 77):
That might be strategic for DEN, but it would disastrous at IAD.

Republic - that is Frontier/Midwest - wouldn't to put 'em at IAD.

Mariner,

Would you rewrite your sentence [please]?

I'm not sure you are saying what you mean to say.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 14:37:51 and read 9130 times.



Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 79):
Would you rewrite your sentence [please]?

Yes. here you go:

Republic - that is Frontier/Midwest - wouldn't have to put 'em at IAD.

My bad. Early morning here.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: KGAIflyer
Posted 2009-08-23 14:53:43 and read 9101 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 80):
Republic - that is Frontier/Midwest - wouldn't have to put 'em at IAD.

Thanks for recasting the sentence.  Smile

It's a non-issue, but I'm thinking -- no other UAX contractor (that I know of) operates a fleet of E70s.

So, IAD's E70 services would have to be elevated to mainline or dropped to CR-7 service.

Or a couple of UA 735s would have to be restored.

Or perhaps something outside the box.  airplane 

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 14:59:32 and read 9103 times.



Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 81):
So, IAD's E70 services would have to be elevated to mainline or dropped to CR-7 service.

Which is one reason why I think it is unlikely that United would drop Shuttle America. But - anything is possible.

It is of course possible that United (say) is miffed that Republic has bought Frontier. On the other hand, United might be well pleased to have Frontier still as the buffer between themselves and Southwest at DEN.

However, even if they are miffed, I would think the last thing United wants is Frontier/Midwest with a bunch of (desirable) aircraft suddenly available to them.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2009-08-23 15:06:33 and read 9080 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 82):
On the other hand, United might be well pleased to have Frontier still as the buffer between themselves and Southwest at DEN.

How is F9 a buffer between UA and WN? So far, the battle between F9 and WN has done nothing but trash UA yields and force UA to shrink to try and maintain yields.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 82):

However, even if they are miffed, I would think the last thing United wants is Frontier/Midwest with a bunch of (desirable) aircraft suddenly available to them.

But who says they are desirable aircraft? The E170 is not the god send some on here make it out to be. There's a reason why F9 wanted to be rid of it in its system.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 15:16:07 and read 9070 times.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 83):
How is F9 a buffer between UA and WN? So far, the battle between F9 and WN has done nothing but trash UA yields and force UA to shrink to try and maintain yields.

There is a section of the market that Frontier and Southwest cannot reach - the high end - and United can.

I don't follow United particularly, but people who do tell me that United has changed somewhat at DEN, going for the higher yield pax, not the lower end. I donlt know if it is true, but it makes sense to me.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 83):
But who says they are desirable aircraft? The E170 is not the god send some on here make it out to be. There's a reason why F9 wanted to be rid of it in its system.

I meant desirable from a passenger perspective.

The reason why Frontier cancelled the contract had nothing to do with that desirability. The contract was expensive, with a built in loading to Republic, and the rising price of oil made it more so.

But there were some routes, DEN-SDF eg, where the E170 was extremely valuable to Frontier.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: KGAIflyer
Posted 2009-08-23 15:35:22 and read 9051 times.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 83):
The E170 is not the god send some on here make it out to be. There's a reason why F9 wanted to be rid of it in its system.

Perhaps E70s are not made of gold. But, as mentioned above in reply 77, some of UA's service at IAD is *exclusively* E70. For instance, IAD-MIA is *all* E70. IAD-MSY is *all* E70. IAD-ORF was, until recently, *all* E70.

But this is *not* a UA/DEN issue -- it's an UA/IAD issue.

It just happens to involve (Republic's) S5.

[Edited 2009-08-23 15:56:14]

[Edited 2009-08-23 15:58:29]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Doug_or
Posted 2009-08-23 15:40:18 and read 9020 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 84):
There is a section of the market that Frontier and Southwest cannot reach - the high end - and United can.

I don't follow United particularly, but people who do tell me that United has changed somewhat at DEN, going for the higher yield pax, not the lower end. I donlt know if it is true, but it makes sense to me.

Okay, but how does that make them a buffer?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 15:46:14 and read 9035 times.



Quoting Doug_or (Reply 86):
Okay, but how does that make them a buffer?

If Frontier were not there, United would be competing directly with a much, much larger Southwest.

Frontier is a buffer against that.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: IndyWA
Posted 2009-08-23 16:37:25 and read 8979 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 76):
Frontier, Midwest and Mokulele

Mokulele flights ARE Shuttle America flights. These are Shuttle America aircraft with Shuttle America crews, not Mokulele crews. So they wouldn't need to be transferred there. Plus, it wouldn't happen until seniority would be resolved AND this would put BB into hot water with his employees.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 16:38:39 and read 8977 times.

Quoting IndyWA (Reply 88):
Mokulele flights ARE Shuttle America flights. These are Shuttle America aircraft with Shuttle America crews, not Mokulele crews. So they wouldn't need to be transferred there

My point is only that they could transfer more aircraft to (fly for) Mokulele.

mariner

[Edited 2009-08-23 16:44:59]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2009-08-23 19:21:41 and read 8859 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 87):
If Frontier were not there, United would be competing directly with a much, much larger Southwest.

But in all likelihood, WN by itself would be smaller than WN and F9 operating independently. WN wanted to get rid of F9 and get rid of some of the excess capacity on routes that makes it hard for anyone to be profitable. As long as both are in the game, UA faces a tough battle.

And as many carriers have found, it is possible to share a hub with WN alone. DL at SLC, NW at DTW, CO at CLE, etc.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 84):
I meant desirable from a passenger perspective.

True, they are more desirable from a passenger perspective. But sadly, that's not a big factor for U.S. airlines. These RFP's are driven largely by cost and fleet flexibility. Passenger comfort is only a minor consideration.

Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 85):
But, as mentioned above in reply 77, some of UA's service at IAD is *exclusively* E70. For instance, IAD-MIA is *all* E70. IAD-MSY is *all* E70. IAD-ORF was, until recently, *all* E70.

But there are certainly other aircraft types capable of flying these routes. Maybe the E170 is the optimal aircraft, but maybe not.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-08-23 19:31:43 and read 8847 times.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 90):
But there are certainly other aircraft types capable of flying these routes. Maybe the E170 is the optimal aircraft, but maybe not.

On many of these routes, it's more about the ExPlus product, also offered on CR7s, than the 170. UA sells them as the same product even though the 170 is much more comfortable.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-23 19:49:29 and read 8830 times.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 90):
But in all likelihood, WN by itself would be smaller than WN and F9 operating independently.

I thought we had already covered all this in post #12.

It was the consensus among many analysts that Southwest acquiring Frontier was very bad news for United - see the links in post #12.

I assume, therefore, they think the corollary is true - that Southwest not acquiring Frontier is very good news for United.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 90):
True, they are more desirable from a passenger perspective. But sadly, that's not a big factor for U.S. airlines. These RFP's are driven largely by cost and fleet flexibility. Passenger comfort is only a minor consideration.

Well - duh.

But given a choice between an aircraft that is attractive to passengers and and aircraft that is not attractive to passengers - at a similar cost - I know which way I'd jump.

Others may think differently. United may think differently.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-23 19:58:13 and read 8812 times.



Quoting Ca2ohhp (Reply 67):

Funny, I used to say that when I was stuck working YV flights. Unfortunately I now have the opportunity to work both ZW and YV side by side. In my humble opinion, ZW needs to get their own house in order before bidding on any new flying. In the last 12 months, ZW has made YV look operationally good. ZW's maintenance performance has been nothing short of awful, but rumor is pilot negotiations are ongoing (no clue if there's any truth to it). Their dispatch group hasn't made it easier either.

As a working member of the Dispatch group you refer too I take great offense to your post about us having a hand in our operation. I do agree that the ZW maintenance has been awful and getting worse and that has been the biggest problem that faces us.

It seems like it has really gone downhill since OO won the YX contract and ZW management took it as a wakeup call. The bean counters at ZW seem to have more and more power these days. The trip pairings the crews are given have been nothing short of awful recently, with crew rest issues becoming more and more common due to the way they are set up. Maintenance has been awful as they can not keep any good mechanics in PHL for very long, plus Excel Tech in YUL which is the heavy check vendor for ZW has been awful since ZW moved the heavy checks up there instead of WVAC in CKB.

But to blame the dispatch group when we have been working our tails off just to maintain any sort of operational integrity when you have 9 planes out of service, trip pairings from Crew planning that have been awful, and the daily ATC nighmares of PHL and LGA, plus dispatchers who are asked to do 90 releases a shift and maintain operational control of 20 airplanes at the same time with all of this, its amazing most of us can maintain our sanity period. I take pride in my job, and I don't really like blame pointed at us when we are doing the best job that we can.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: JayDub
Posted 2009-08-23 20:08:47 and read 8786 times.

To back up Apodino a little bit...until you have worked in a dispatch center, please, take the time to educate yourself on what actually is going on in an airline's OCC before you comment.

Dispatchers are asked, every moment of every day, to piece together operational integrity despite circumstances that are out completely of their control and make decisions based on information trickling in from a thousand miles away...all while working within company mandated guidelines that sometimes just don't make sense to anyone in the outside world (frontline coworkers, included). Sometimes, hard decisions have to be made to best serve the customers and the operation as a whole.

ZW Dispatch is widely regarded as a hard-working, efficient, and operationally-sound group of folks...and to throw them under the bus because they have to do what is best for the overall operation, in the face of tough circumstances, is completely unfair.



[Edited 2009-08-23 20:16:04]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2009-08-23 20:33:18 and read 8775 times.

Since everyone is full of speculation here are who is coming or going as a UAX carrier here are some facts as to how the various current UAX partner contracts stack up.

Trans States – Expires 2013
GoJet – Expires 2015
Colgan – open ended, at-risk
Skywest – staggered contract with expiration Dec 2011 through 2020 with various extension clause. (note: of current 44 E120s, 20 however are at SKYW atrisk, so in theory they can get pulled at SKYW leisure)
Mesa – Also a staggered contract with earliest portion for 20 CRJs ending in April 2010, and option to give early notice on 10 Dash-8s in April 2010. Otherwise contracts run till end of 2013.
Republic – E145(7) flying terminates this December. E170 flying good till 2019 with a further 5 year extension possible

Short of a BK, or with cause resultant from a UAX partner failing to meet various operational performance criteria on a long term basis United cannot simply terminate a contract on a whim.

[Edited 2009-08-23 20:54:19]

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: NorCal
Posted 2009-08-24 06:35:47 and read 8565 times.



Quoting IndyWA (Reply 75):
Not until the contract is up at least. Although RAH bought Frontier, Shuttle America did not. Do you see what I'm saying? Shuttle America is doing nothing to violate the contract (just like how Republic, Shuttle, and Chautauqua are all able to get around scope clauses by having certain aircraft on certain certificates).

I see what your saying and an argument can be made for it, but remember UA has lots of lawyers who might interpret the language of that contract differently or might find a loop hole that allows them to cancel. Lawyers are a tricky bunch after all. I'm not saying it will happen, but it could happen. It all boils down to what UA is thinking and feeling about the whole deal.

Who knows? Tilton could be estatic about this RAH/Frontier/Midwest deal for all we know.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2009-08-24 12:33:47 and read 8348 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 92):
It was the consensus among many analysts that Southwest acquiring Frontier was very bad news for United - see the links in post #12.

But most of those analysts know little about the airlines. They just assumed that because WN was involved it would be bad for UA. They don't seem to realize that now UA not only still has to compete against WN, but also F9.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 92):
I assume, therefore, they think the corollary is true - that Southwest not acquiring Frontier is very good news for United.

So it's bad for UA to have to compete against one strong competitor (WN), but it's good to have to compete with TWO strong competitors (WN and RAH)??? I'd love to see the analysts logic, though I already know they don't have any.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2009-08-24 12:44:10 and read 8338 times.



Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 85):
Perhaps E70s are not made of gold. But, as mentioned above in reply 77, some of UA's service at IAD is *exclusively* E70. For instance, IAD-MIA is *all* E70. IAD-MSY is *all* E70. IAD-ORF was, until recently, *all* E70.

In the case of IAD-MSY, mainline operates at least one of the flights for part of the year. This year, A319 service resumes on 10/26 on two out of three departures. The Airbus will likely again be replaced with E70 in June for the slow Summer season.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DeltaL1011man
Posted 2009-08-24 12:59:27 and read 8294 times.



Quoting United1 (Reply 73):


Operating the Airbusi, or EMB-190s via a capacity purchase agreement (ie UAX) or as a separate wholly owned subsidiary would be against UAs current scope agreements. Simply code sharing with F9 would not be.

The don't have a limit on codeshares also?

Quoting Enilria (Reply 74):
It isn't since the Ch11. UA has put their code on US Airways domestic operations for years. UA will put their code on B6 eventually due to the LH tie-in. F9 makes even more sense.

So Ua can put its code on anything they want? As much as they want? Are you sure the pilots did have to give it the Ok first?

Quoting Enilria (Reply 74):
BTW, did anybody else realize that US closing their LGA operation makes it a lot easier for B6 to join Star. Now they have just EWR and JFK, while SkyTeam has LGA and JFK.

No it doesn't. Not at all, Matter of fact. B6+CO are still much larger than DL is at both JFK and LGA. US had very little to do with it. Just made seem like a little bit more. DL's only getting 150 flights from US. Thats really not alot when you look at the size of B6 and CO.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-08-24 13:20:54 and read 8266 times.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 97):
But most of those analysts know little about the airlines. They just assumed that because WN was involved it would be bad for UA. They don't seem to realize that now UA not only still has to compete against WN, but also F9.

Since some of those analysts - Bob MacAdoo, eg - have called what has been happening at DEN fairly accurately over the past three years, I'd say they know something.

You want to shoot the messengers, fine, but their incomes (and their clients fortunes) depend on them being right more than they are wrong.

A.netters surely don't have so much at stake.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 97):
So it's bad for UA to have to compete against one strong competitor (WN), but it's good to have to compete with TWO strong competitors (WN and RAH)??? I'd love to see the analysts logic, though I already know they don't have any.

Neither scenario is "good." It may be a question of least worst. I've already given the reasons why I think that way.

mariner

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Ca2ohhp
Posted 2009-08-24 16:21:33 and read 8104 times.



Quoting Apodino (Reply 93):
As a working member of the Dispatch group you refer too I take great offense to your post about us having a hand in our operation. I do agree that the ZW maintenance has been awful and getting worse and that has been the biggest problem that faces us.



Quoting JayDub (Reply 94):
ZW Dispatch is widely regarded as a hard-working, efficient, and operationally-sound group of folks...and to throw them under the bus because they have to do what is best for the overall operation, in the face of tough circumstances, is completely unfair.

My post was in no means intended to be an attack or throwing anybody under the bus whatsoever. I know first hand that dispatchers, maintenance controllers and all of the "behind the scenes" employees work extremely hard.

Let me clarify for both of you. When an aircraft is showing a posted estimated departure time and that time has passed....to call a dispatcher and ask for an update and be told "call the upline station" is not acceptable, to anybody, customers included. This has happened numerous times in my own personal experience. That, compounded with all the other irregularities is what makes my counterparts job just as difficult as the Dispatcher who is balancing 90 flights simultaneously.

The Dispatchers have an opportunity to be civil, at the very least. If they're busy, just tell the person asking. Chances are they are asking because 50 customers want answers.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Oswegobag
Posted 2009-08-24 17:07:20 and read 8062 times.



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 95):
Republic – E145(7) flying terminates this December. E170 flying good till 2019 with a further 5 year extension possible

I heard that United extended Chautauqua's contract another 6 months through June 2010. Has anyone else heard this or is it rumor?

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-08-24 17:59:09 and read 7985 times.



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 95):
Mesa – Also a staggered contract with earliest portion for 20 CRJs ending in April 2010, and option to give early notice on 10 Dash-8s in April 2010. Otherwise contracts run till end of 2013.
Republic – E145(7) flying terminates this December. E170 flying good till 2019 with a further 5 year extension possible

Well, that takes us back to REP or Mesa as the loser here. Same thing we already thought, but now verified. Thanks!

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 99):
So Ua can put its code on anything they want? As much as they want? Are you sure the pilots did have to give it the Ok first?

UA's pilots lost that protection in the contract "agreed" to under Ch11. Again, US Airways is a clear example of it already in effect. CO and UA are going to do a massive code share.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 99):
No it doesn't. Not at all, Matter of fact.

Huh? US giving up a ton of slots to DL clearly makes Star less powerful in NYC. I'm not sure how that is arguable. US is in Star you know.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: United1
Posted 2009-08-24 18:52:50 and read 7921 times.



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 99):
The don't have a limit on codeshares also?

Quoting Enilria (Reply 74):
It isn't since the Ch11. UA has put their code on US Airways domestic operations for years. UA will put their code on B6 eventually due to the LH tie-in. F9 makes even more sense.

So Ua can put its code on anything they want? As much as they want? Are you sure the pilots did have to give it the Ok first?

UA can code share with any airline without ALPA approval.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Expressjet_erj
Posted 2009-08-24 20:00:46 and read 7832 times.



Quoting United1 (Reply 104):
UA can code share with any airline without ALPA approval.

I hope this wasnt the master plan, but I feel in a few months to a year this is what will occur.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2009-08-24 20:20:28 and read 7787 times.



Quoting Oswegobag (Reply 102):
I heard that United extended Chautauqua's contract another 6 months through June 2010. Has anyone else heard this or is it rumor?

I suppose it could be possible, however in the RAH 10K and 10Qs is states the following.

In July 2008, the Company received notice from United of their intent to terminate the E145 code-share agreement effective December 31, 2009.

and

We expect to reduce our E140/145 fleet in 2009. Under our United agreement, seven E145 aircraft are scheduled to be removed in December 2009. We intend to sell or otherwise sublease these aircraft.

So any extension must be very recent as the 10Q just came out a few weeks back.

Quoting United1 (Reply 104):
UA can code share with any airline without ALPA approval.

No its not a free for all. The 2003 BK CBA and subsequent 2005 LOA do provide scope/codeshare language.

United still must work within the agreement for feeder carriers, domestic and foreign code-share and marketing partnerships including block space purchases. The contract language provides limitations on types of flying, markets/city-pairs, block hours, market concentration, seat capacity and requires the company to meet and confer with ALPA prior to entering such agreements.

Off course once the company walks that fine line and meets the terms of the contract its free to codeshare with whom it wishes.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2009-08-24 20:20:47 and read 7787 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 103):
Huh? US giving up a ton of slots to DL clearly makes Star less powerful in NYC. I'm not sure how that is arguable. US is in Star you know.

I would give you LGA definitely. Which I think is a big deal. More so than people like to admit. However, US's loss in LGA, Star more than makes up with the entrance of CO with EWR. Star didn't have much of ANYTHING in NYC before them.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: Apodino
Posted 2009-08-24 20:29:46 and read 7764 times.



Quoting Ca2ohhp (Reply 101):
Let me clarify for both of you. When an aircraft is showing a posted estimated departure time and that time has passed....to call a dispatcher and ask for an update and be told "call the upline station" is not acceptable, to anybody, customers included. This has happened numerous times in my own personal experience. That, compounded with all the other irregularities is what makes my counterparts job just as difficult as the Dispatcher who is balancing 90 flights simultaneously.

I can understand that. I know a few dispatchers that are like that and very confrontational with both stations and pilots. While at times we don't know anything more about why a plane hasn't left than the station is calling, a blanked call the upline station is still unacceptable. I can offer reasons why I think he might be delayed, but I can't really say much more than that, but at least I can give them something to tell the passengers. But I do have a pretty good idea of who you are talking about in this.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: United1
Posted 2009-08-24 20:57:44 and read 7731 times.



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 106):
Off course once the company walks that fine line and meets the terms of the contract its free to codeshare with whom it wishes.

True, there are limitations on which routes can be served (ie no feeders on intra hub flights) but at the same time the "limits" that UA has on code-sharing are rather loose... effectivly UA can code share with F9 on 99% of their route network.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2009-08-24 21:20:41 and read 7711 times.



Quoting United1 (Reply 109):
effectivly UA can code share with F9 on 99% of their route network.

If United retained its network but simply applies a UA code to Frontier flying that would be quite possible. But for UA to vacate markets in favor of a F9 feeder relationship that is quite a bit more complex and invokes a contract litmus test including limitation of using a feeder carrier to replace UA served markets in the preceding 24 months.

Topic: RE: United Puts Out RFP For More Express Flying
Username: DeltaL1011man
Posted 2009-08-25 05:48:36 and read 7581 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 103):
Huh? US giving up a ton of slots to DL clearly makes Star less powerful in NYC. I'm not sure how that is arguable. US is in Star you know.

And CO is replacing US(in NYC). Co ISN'T is Star you know. But I guess if you think 500+ flight hub replacing 150 50-seater hub means it would make it easier to get B6 into *A think Ok. BTW US is only giving Delta round 150 slots. Pretty small when you look at B6 and CO put together in NYC.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 103):
UA's pilots lost that protection in the contract "agreed" to under Ch11. Again, US Airways is a clear example of it already in effect. CO and UA are going to do a massive code share.

Ugh. And DL has a codeshare with CO,NW,YX,AS.........and the DALPA had to aprove them all. (plus the JV with AF/KL) 9 times out of 10 the airline can't go do what ever they want. Using the US codeshare as to what they can do isn't a good idea.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 106):
United still must work within the agreement for feeder carriers, domestic and foreign code-share and marketing partnerships including block space purchases. The contract language provides limitations on types of flying, markets/city-pairs, block hours, market concentration, seat capacity and requires the company to meet and confer with ALPA prior to entering such agreements.

Thought so.
What about the AFA?


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