Which airlines could still order the 777s in your opinion? I speak about new customers...

Regards

Sacha

I dont know who could be next as almost every airline which could use 777s have them already.
But if you would ask me which airline would dump 777s soon I´d say Austrian, now that its belonging to LH.

Probably some new start-up or a "national" airline in Africa looking to replace and modernize their fleet.

I don't expect LH, SK, LX, IB or SA to order the type. They'll hold on to their A340s until the A350XWB / 787 comes online.

T7's in UsAirways colors going to China  

RYAN
FLTOPS

LOT maybe to hold them over until their 787s come?

Indeed the current top 100 of airlines either have them or are not interested.
The only further passenger airlines I see ordering are airlines of smaller countries like Biman Bangladesh, some CIS airlines might take a handful. I don't see much more possibilities in Africa, the only 5 big airlines ordered them already or chose a different fleet (SAA), maybe one or two each by airlines like Air Zimbabwe or Air Mauritius but I guess they wait for new generation stuff.
The only sizeable order can come if a current or new mid east airline tries to compete full blown on long haul routes with EK, EY and QR, say something like Air Arabia, Afriqiyah or Oman Air.
But all in all I expect the 777 to have some 200 more top up orders from their current operators and then continue as a freighter ending up with 1500 built, exactly like the 747.

[Edited 2009-09-11 10:32:52]

Qantas, the Aussie airline has always been missing from the 777 program. IF there was one major that Boeing would love to sell 777LR's or 77W its the Kangaroo.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 6): IF there was one major that Boeing would love to sell 777LR's or 77W its the Kangaroo.

And I bet Boeing would be even more pleased if QF would order 748Is!

Qf wont get 777, at least not the current models. Maybe if Boeing upgrades it and there is a 777W/NG past 2015 (without such airplane Boeing would loose most future pitches to the A350 anyway). The 777 as it is is clearly beyond its peak, at least in respect of more orders. The majority of airlines which would or have taken 777s in recent years are going or will go for 787s/A350s if they have the money.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 6): Qantas, the Aussie airline has always been missing from the 777 program. IF there was one major that Boeing would love to sell 777LR's or 77W its the Kangaroo.

agreed, also US could use some 77Es, 77Ls, and/or 77Ws. I suspect UPS and Atlas could use some B-777Fs, too.

Will LH ever dump their A-340-300/-600s for some B-777-200ERs/-300ERs?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8): Will LH ever dump their A-340-300/-600s for some B-777-200ERs/-300ERs?

No, they'r waiting for the next generation. It would be silly for them to dump planes that are doing well for them for a type that will do somewhat better but are going to be obsolete in the near future. Besides, with the economy the way it is, I think few airlines are ordering new types at all.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8): Will LH ever dump their A-340-300/-600s for some B-777-200ERs/-300ERs?

LH has repeatedly considered the 777-300ER, but rejected it and ordered more A340-600s. It simply didn't make any economic sense to introduce an additional type. And I don't expect them to evaluate it again with the next generation of twinjets available in a few years.

If they need to add any more widebody twinjets before A350s/787s arrive, they'll most likely get A330-300s. Those are also capable of replacing A340-300s on many routes.


PH

777 Operators (by Henpol747 Aug 24 2009 in Civil Aviation)

Was not this just talked about last month?

Quoting NA (Reply 7): And I bet Boeing would be even more pleased if QF would order 748Is!

Qantas is one of those few airines he A380 really was made for given their two prime routes requie such capacity.

Quoting NA (Reply 7): Qf wont get 777, at least not the current models. Maybe if Boeing upgrades it and there is a 777W/NG past 2015 (without such airplane Boeing would loose most future pitches to the A350 anyway). The 777 as it is is clearly beyond its peak, at least in respect of more orders.

Boeing WILL make another generation 777, they have too much at stake not to.

Quoting NA (Reply 1): But if you would ask me which airline would dump 777s soon I´d say Austrian, now that its belonging to LH.

actually a couple of days ago at the ceremony to mark the LH takeover of OS the current OS CEO was quoted as saying that OS is having a recovery in longhaul traffic and that when a couple of the 767s come off lease they may be replaced by additional 777s

Quoting NA (Reply 1): But if you would ask me which airline would dump 777s soon I´d say Austrian

Be little more respectful to the original poster! It's a valid question, if you don't like, don't participate in the thread!

Bak on topic, I think it's possible that QF may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s eventually. I also think that LAN may order 77Ls to replace their 343s. Also China Airlines may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s.

These are just my analysis and very possible that they may not happen. Just saying that they may.

The777Man

Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): Quoting NA (Reply 1): But if you would ask me which airline would dump 777s soon I´d say Austrian Be little more respectful to the original poster! It's a valid question, if you don't like, don't participate in the thread!

I thought the post you are referring to was "respectful", and the poster did give his view on the original poster's question by stating his opinion that all carriers likely to require the 777 have already ordered them.

[Edited 2009-09-11 12:53:52]

Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): I also think that LAN may order 77Ls to replace their 343s.

Or as compensation for the 787 delay? They already have 777Fs so it probably would be a good fit. BTW, those 777s in LAN livery are beautiful birds!

Thanks Viscount,

I indeed cant see what possibly could be disrespectful in what I said. Its just something I discussed with LH guys the other day.

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 13): the current OS CEO was quoted as saying that OS is having a recovery in longhaul traffic and that when a couple of the 767s come off lease they may be replaced by additional 777s

I very, very much doubt this man has anything decisive to say in that matter anymore. LH would rather transfer one or two A346s to OS than let them get more 772s. Though LH Technik is very well suited for 777s. The A300 fleet of LH was just wfu mainly because such a small fleet isnt economical anymore. Same must be said about 3 or 4 777s.

Quoting NA (Reply 17): LH would rather transfer one or two A346s to OS than let them get more 772s.

Source? It wouldn't make any sense to operate both one or two A340s and four 777s. And how would LH replace the transferred A340s?

Quoting NA (Reply 17): The A300 fleet of LH was just wfu mainly because such a small fleet isnt economical anymore. Same must be said about 3 or 4 777s.

There are numerous airlines with small fleets of long-haul types. You cannot compare that with LH's short- and medium-haul A300s. There are numerous reasons why LH has dumped the A300s, the size of the fleet wasn't a major one.


PH

I guess as a long shot, IB if the merger with BA ever takes place might use some of BA's 777s, but I wouldn't bet on it...

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 19): IB if the merger with BA ever takes place might use some of BA's 777s, but I wouldn't bet on it...

I believe a reason IB did not went for the 777 was because of concerns about the performance of a twinjet in hot and high airports, like Bogotá. Given the multiple "hot and high" airports they serve, I don{t think it would be a good idea for them to get some ex BA 777.


Its my understanding that concerns over the performance of twin jet long haul flights out of JNB ruled out the 777 for SAA too.

Quoting Tarheelwings (Reply 16): Or as compensation for the 787 delay

Yes, just like Etiophian did. I'm sure their 77L order had something to do with 787 compensation.

The777Man

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 18): Source? It wouldn't make any sense to operate both one or two A340s and four 777s. And how would LH replace the transferred A340s?

First I spoke with some LH people about Austrian this week. My answer reflects that. Of cause they would not operate both the A340 and 777 in one rather small airline. But LH wouldnt add another 777 for Austrian. LH has to save 2 billions over the next years. To dump the microscopic, now oddball 777 and 767 fleets of Austrian would save millions. Better than firing people. Austrian now belongs to LH and thus will be subject to LH policy. Midterm it would be stupid to support a tiny subfleet of an alien type if the mother airline has a few widebodies too much anyway.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 18): There are numerous reasons why LH has dumped the A300s, the size of the fleet wasn't a major one.

Source? I heard it differently from INSIDE the airline. But of cause the A300 fleet age was the main factor.

Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): I think it's possible that QF may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s eventually. I also think that LAN may order 77Ls to replace their 343s. Also China Airlines may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s.

While with QF "you never know" I think this highly unlikely. IF and it's a big IF, QF decide they need something between the B789 and A380, they are more likely to go for the bigger A350 models or even B787-10/-11 if Boeing ever decide to offer them, rather than a 20 year old design.

Gemuser

It would be great to see Air Pacific pick some up - would go for say 4 x 777-200 er, this would enable them to replace the 744's they have from SQ, this would also fill in the gap until their 787's arrive, and also would use it on their route to HKG - the 763 is getting a bit old theses days.

other airlines could be Icelandair again 772's theses would be very sexy birds

and if were dreaming bmi a mix of 200 and 300's come on BD fly to JNB, BA are a rip off.

Airlines in South America really need to replace their Long Haul fleet very soon, and the 777 (used, of course), would make a great addition to their fleets.
But, In my humble opinion I could see in a few year's time, LA, AV, S3, CM (if they ever decide long haul), and maybe AR (but doubtful).

I flew AV's new A330s several times this year between BOG and MIA and they were full every time. Perhaps AV could use a few 777's for this route and some of it's higher density routes. Comments?

How about AIR ASIA , they seem to be growing by leaps and bounds

Quoting Pink77W (Reply 27): How about AIR ASIA , they seem to be growing by leaps and bounds

AirAsiaX has 23 A330 + 10 A350 on order from Airbus.
In addition they are picking up second hand A340's.
Should be enough for them for the time being.  

Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): I think it's possible that QF may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s eventually.

The A380 is the main 744 replacement for QF. If QF needs smaller 744 replacement, the A350-1000 is a better option for QF.

Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): Also China Airlines may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s.

China Airlines has already A359 on order. Makes more sense to go for A350-1000 than 77W.

I think in general the T7 orderbook will dry up abit, as Boeing are talking about T7NG.
Who wants to get the last old generation plane when someting better is just around the corner?

Garuda Indonesia has ordered 10 77W. IIRC, the first delivery will be in 2011.

Thx ASIAFLYER, I like Air Asia but i guess i wasn't paying that close attention

Quoting NA (Reply 22): First I spoke with some LH people about Austrian this week.

Upper management, pilots, FAs? There are thousands of "LH people".

Quoting NA (Reply 22): To dump the microscopic, now oddball 777 and 767 fleets of Austrian would save millions. Better than firing people.

It would even save more millions to dump the whole fleet.   What's relevant is the revenue potential, not just operating costs of certain types. If OS can earn money on certain long-haul routes it makes sense to keep a capable long-haul type.

Quoting NA (Reply 22): Austrian now belongs to LH and thus will be subject to LH policy.

The change of ownership doesn't mean that only LH-operated types are qualified.

Quoting NA (Reply 22): Midterm it would be stupid to support a tiny subfleet of an alien type if the mother airline has a few widebodies too much anyway.

Do they really have too many?


PH

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 28): Quoting The777Man (Reply 14): Also China Airlines may order 777-300/ER to replace 744s. China Airlines has already A359 on order. Makes more sense to go for A350-1000 than 77W.

No it does not as the a359 whenever in 2016 in comes replaces the A340's.

Quoting NA (Reply 22): First I spoke with some LH people about Austrian this week. My answer reflects that. Of cause they would not operate both the A340 and 777 in one rather small airline. But LH wouldn't add another 777 for Austrian. LH has to save 2 billions over the next years. To dump the microscopic, now oddball 777 and 767 fleets of Austrian would save millions. Better than firing people. Austrian now belongs to LH and thus will be subject to LH policy. Midterm it would be stupid to support a tiny subfleet of an alien type if the mother airline has a few widebodies too much anyway.

Possibly we didn't speak with the same guys, and some info do overlap with yours, but here is what I was hit with, and to be honest it is a bit more realistic:

- The Long Haul fleet of OS is simply still under review, they said for the current operations and yields even an A332 would be an overkill and to keep these routes the 767 with their WL are better (before we argue, the A333 has better operating data, but it is not worth it if you can not fill those few extra seats)
- They simply ruled out the handing over of A346 to OS, simply that would be an overkill... people think before you write... The A346 is in the league of the 77W and not the 772 !
- It is thru that the possibility of an A330 fleet is under scope, and would be logical to get rid of the so called oddball fleet.
- but here is an important thing they said is under consideration: cost of ownership and operations. While I see your point about the 777s being an oddball sub-fleet in the LH empire, but do not forget that OS has everything to fly, maintain and operate them, no new training or equipment is required, and same goes for LH Technik...
- Basically what I was told was that the fate of the fleet is much more based on the following factors:
- Resale value (will not be wasted on the market just to get rid of them)
- Future of the Long Haul market
- But most importantly the future of a joint LH Empire order for the 787/A350

So what I am trying to say, it is not that "already decided" and not that unequivocal that the 777s or even the 767s need to go immediately...of course I didn't speak with the gods of LH...  

Quoting NA (Reply 17): Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 13): the current OS CEO was quoted as saying that OS is having a recovery in longhaul traffic and that when a couple of the 767s come off lease they may be replaced by additional 777s I very, very much doubt this man has anything decisive to say in that matter anymore. LH would rather transfer one or two A346s to OS than let them get more 772s

I doubt very much whether he would have publicly said that at the takeover ceremony with the new owners present without having run it past them first .

Quoting Csturdiv (Reply 4):

In the coming weeks CEO of LOT will negotiates to purchase at least 2-3 B777 for the delay of Dreamliners. The day when newest E-Jet(600th) arrived to Warsaw, president Mikosz explained that will not wait longer for new long-haul planes, because like most other airlines wants to develop and improve service for passengers and this is impossible with existing fleet of 767 which are getting expensive in maintenance. Will see.

Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 25): Airlines in South America really need to replace their Long Haul fleet very soon

We have seen a number of airlines taking new widebody planes, including the 77W for JJ and 332 for a number of operators.

Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 25): and the 777 (used, of course)

Care to explain why they should used?

Keeping a perspective longer into the future gives many more possible candidates especially considering there will prpbably be a lot of second hand 777s available in the next five years.

I can see these airlines get second hand 777s as the resale value goes down as the aircraft get older:

OY = Omni International. They just got their first 763 and they could probably use 777s in about 5 to 10 years time.

NA = North American. They fly 763s now and could probably use some 777s in five years time.

5L = AeroSur. They fly a 743 now to MAD. Eventually it needs to be replaces. They could possibly get a second hand 777 in 10 years time.

B3 = Bellview. They fly 762s now but in a very populous country like Nigeria, they could possibly get 777s in 5 to 10 years time.

EO = Hewa Bora Airways. They fly a 767 now and could perhaps get a 777 in 10 years time to replace it.

MD = Madegascar Airlines. Same as EO above.

S7 = S7 Sibir Airlines. They fly some widebodies and is a possible candidat for 777s in 10 years time.

FV = Rossiya. They fly 767s now and may need something larger later if they can get for the right price.

LO = Compensation for 787 delays. See other post.

IZ = Arkia Israel. They flew/ (fly ?) to NYC and could try to use the 777 later.

IR = Iran Air. Mahan Air already flies second hand 744s. Not that strange to think IR would somehow get second hand 777s in 10 years time.

BI = Royal Brunei Airlines. Long rumored to be the customer for 4 777-200/LR that are listed as for Unidentifies customer.

Again, these are LONGTERM possible airlines that could get 777s, in my opinion.

The777Man

Quoting Colinatl (Reply 26): I flew AV's new A330s several times this year between BOG and MIA and they were full every time. Perhaps AV could use a few 777's for this route and some of it's higher density routes. Comments?

There is a severe capacity shortage between BOG and Miami since AA doesn't have a high season third daily flight. AA also withdrew the A300 from use so the 757 & 767 are smaller on their current two daily flights. AV's A330-200 are good for year round ops to Miami, probably too small in the summer.

AA 777 don't have enough seats for Colombia from Miami, so its wise for AA not to use them to BOG. AV will be getting 787-8, but a 777 would be too big for AV's 2 class business model.

Well if LH wants to get rid of OS's 767s and 777s, now is the time to do so as their values are still strong. With similar age and hours, a 77E is worth about 50% more than an A343 so LH would see a stronger return on a 77E sale vs. an A343 sale.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39): With similar age and hours, a 77E is worth about 50% more than an A343

What source do you use for that kind of information? Thanks.

Quoting The777Man (Reply 37): Care to explain why they should used?

Capital restrictions, especially in Venezuela.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 40): What source do you use for that kind of information? Thanks.

I have access to industry resources that track averages for aircraft values and lease rates.

ANZ has finalised and ordering 777-300 to replace the current 747-400 that they are now starting to scrap. They already have 777-200 so will be interesting to see what they are going to do now because they have also ordered some 787's. Thanks, Joel  

Quoting Boeingfever777 (Reply 32): No it does not as the a359 whenever in 2016 in comes replaces the A340's.

Yes, you are correct about the A359.
My point was however that by the time CI replaces their relative young fleet of 744's, they will get fleet commonality and probably better performance by buying A350-1000.  

What do you think of AF buying some 77Ls?

Quoting LY777 (Reply 45): What do you think of AF buying some 77Ls?

Are they routinely flying any 77E routes where they need to leave behind a good bit of payload?

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 6): Qantas, the Aussie airline has always been missing from the 777 program. IF there was one major that Boeing would love to sell 777LR's or 77W its the Kangaroo.

I agree. If there ever were an airline that needs a 744 replacement, it's QF. The A380 is not a good 744 replacement, nor is the A330, nor is the 787. They either need 77W's or A351's.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46): Quoting LY777 (Reply 45): What do you think of AF buying some 77Ls? Are they routinely flying any 77E routes where they need to leave behind a good bit of payload?

I believe CDG-SCL (6291 nm) is AF's only nonstop route longer than 6000 nm. They use the 77E there. That's about 2000 nm shorter than an ULH route like SQ's EWR-SIN (8285 nm). It's also several hundred miles shorter than quite a few routes operated without problems by the 77E or 77W. Examples:

CX EWR-HKG (77E) 7009 nm
CX JFK-HKG (77W) 7014 nm
CX YYZ-HKG (77W) 6787 nm
LY TLV-LAX (77E) 6581 nm
VA LAX-SYD (77W) 6507 nm

I can't think of any potential AF nonstop markets where the 77L would be needed.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 48): I can't think of any potential AF nonstop markets where the 77L would be needed.

The appeal of the 77L is not just the long legs, but the fact that it can haul a 77E's maximum payload about 2000nm farther so if you find yourself payload-limited in a 77E, you won't be in a 77L.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 49): The appeal of the 77L is not just the long legs, but the fact that it can haul a 77E's maximum payload about 2000nm farther so if you find yourself payload-limited in a 77E, you won't be in a 77L.

Very true but I still don't see AF ordering the 77L.

The777Man

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 48): CX EWR-HKG (77E) 7009 nm

I think you mean CO. CX do not have any 77E, nor do they operate EWR-HKG.

I can't wait to see which second-hand operators will utilize 777 (and A340) series airplanes.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 49): The appeal of the 77L is not just the long legs, but the fact that it can haul a 77E's maximum payload about 2000nm farther so if you find yourself payload-limited in a 77E, you won't be in a 77L.

How many operators ever max out payload-wise on a long-haul to make a 77L more desirable than a 77E? Sales say not many.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 51): Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 48): CX EWR-HKG (77E) 7009 nm I think you mean CO. CX do not have any 77E, nor do they operate EWR-HKG.

Thanks. Yes, that was a typo.