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Topic: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-13 06:48:39 and read 10342 times.

This compares what is for sale this week for the stated period versus what was for sale the prior week...NOT the prior year.

How to read:
AAA-BBB 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
AAA-BBB 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
AAA-BBB 4>6 MAY-JUN means the change is only for the stated period May to June

There was a lot to type, so please take it easy on any typos...

AS
BOI-GEG 2>0 JAN-
MCO-SEA 2>1 APR-
OGG-SJC 0>4/WK MAR-
OGG-SMF 0>1 MAR-
KOA-SJC 0>4/WK MAR-
CDB-ANC 3/WK>0 JAN-
SDP-ANC 3/WK>0 JAN-

B6
Appears to me that they are not shifting nearly so much into transcon for the Summer as they traditionally have...or they haven't loaded it yet.
BOS-BDA 0>1 MAY-
BOS-FLL 6>3 MAY-
BOS-JFK 7>8 MAY-
BOS-LAX 1>2 MAY-
BOS-MCO 6>5 MAY-
BOS-ORD 1>3 MAY-
BOS-PBI 5>2 MAY-
BOS-PIT 1>2 MAY-
BOS-RDU 1>3 MAY-
BOS-RSW 6>2 MAY-
BOS-SAN 1>2 MAY-
BOS-SDQ 1/WK>1 MAY-
BOS-SXM 0>2/WK MAY, CXLD IN JUNE
BOS-TPA 3>2 MAY-
FLL-EWR 5>3 MAY-
FLL-IAD 3>2 MAY-
FLL-SDQ 10/WK>1 MAY-
JFK-ACK 0>5/WK MAY-
JFK-BOS 7>8 MAY-
JFK-FLL 9>7 MAY-
JFK-IAD 3>2 MAY- (Wow, only 2 RTs in a "shuttle" market)
JFK-NAS 3>2 MAY-
JFK-OAK 10/WK>2 MAY-
JFK-PBI 9>4 MAY-
JFK-POP 1>16/WK
JFK-ROC 4>5 MAY-
JFK-RSW 6>4 MAY-
JFK-SEA 1>2 MAY-
JFK-SJU 5>6 MAY-
JFK-STI 5>6 MAY-
LGA-MCO 2>3 MAY-
LGB-IAD 2>1 MAY-
LGB-LAX 2>3 MAY-
MCO-BQN 1>2 MAY-
MCO-BUF 2>1 MAY-
MCO-SJU 6>5 MAY-
MCO-SYR 2>1 MAY-
PBI-EWR 2>1 MAY-
PBI-LGA 2>1 MAY-
RSW-EWR 1>1 MAY-

DL
ATL-ARN 4/WK>0 MAR-
ATL-CPH 1>5/WK MAR-APR
ATL-CSG 5>4 FEB-
ATL-HHH 3>4 MAR-
JFK-YHZ 0>1 FEB-
LAX-OGG 1>2 MAR-
SLC-OGG 1>0 MAR-
LAX-SAN 0>5 FEB-
SLC-TPA 1>1/WK FEB-APR

F9
DEN-OKC 5>4 JAN-

FL
ATL-AUA STARTS JAN INSTEAD OF FEB
DCA-MCO 2>1 APR-
MKE-DCA 2>3 APR-
MKE-CAK 0>3 JAN-
MKE-DFW 0>2 APR-
MKE-DSM 0>3 FEB-
MKE-IND 1>3 JAN-
MKE-OMA 0>3 FEB-
MKE-PIT 1>3 DEC-
MKE-STL 2>3 DEC-
SAN-ATL 0>1 MAY-
SAN-MKE 0>1 MAY-
SFO-ATL 2>1 JAN-APR

NK
DTW-LAS 1>2 MAY-
FLL-LAS 1>2 MAY-
LGA-MYR 3>4 MAY-

NW
BJI-MSP 3>2 FEB-
HNL-SEA 2>1 MAR-
LAS-LAX 3>4 FEB-
MSP-PVR 2>1 FEB-MAR
MSP-TUL 3>2 FEB-

UA
BKW-IAD 0>1 MAR- (SVC WAS PREV ENDING)
BKW-SHD 2>1 MAR-
Wonder if UA is building LAX after the NW/DL LAX announcement...different markets, though.
BWI-LAX 1>2 FEB-
DEN-LAX 8>9 FEB-
PHL-LAX 1>2 FEB-
SBA-LAX 6>8 JAN-
SBP-LAX 4>5 JAN-
YUM-LAX 4>5 JAN-

ORD-BRU 0>1 MAR-
SFO-DFW 1>2 FEB-
SFO-HNL 3>4 APR-
SFO-PHL 3>2 FEB-APR
SFO-SAN 8>7 FEB-

US
LAS-MSP 1>0 JAN- (GUESS THEY MISSED THIS ONE LAST WEEK!)
LGA-FPO 1/WK>0 FEB-

YX
BOS-MCI 1>0 JAN-APR

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-13 08:11:51 and read 9975 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
MKE-IND 1>3 JAN-
MKE-OMA 0>3 FEB-
MKE-PIT 1>3 DEC-
MKE-STL 2>3 DEC-

'

Just to be clear, these four markets are going to OO.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Web
Posted 2009-11-13 08:17:42 and read 9944 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
CDB-ANC 3/WK>0 JAN-
SDP-ANC 3/WK>0 JAN-

Aren't these operated by PenAir? And if so, does this mean that PenAir is cancelling the route, or that AS is terminating the codeshare?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-13 08:30:35 and read 9873 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):
Just to be clear, these four markets are going to OO.

True, but still under the FL code. OO is not selling them under the OO code even though they are prorate flying. BTW, XJ published their whole schedule this week separately from NW under their XJ code. Odd? I wonder if it was a mistake.

Quoting Web (Reply 2):
Aren't these operated by PenAir? And if so, does this mean that PenAir is cancelling the route, or that AS is terminating the codeshare?

All I know is that they are deleted from OAG for AS. They appear to still be listed under PenAir. I don't know what to make of that. Could be an error or they dropped the code share or PenAir will sync it next week by dropping them.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: BNAtraveler
Posted 2009-11-13 08:31:27 and read 9874 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
AS
BOI-GEG 2>0 JAN-

Very, very odd. QX has operated this route forever. Their only direct competition is WN, but this is the fastest and by far the easiest way to get from Boise to Northern Idaho. Wonder what is behind this one!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-13 08:38:36 and read 9823 times.



Quoting BNAtraveler (Reply 4):
Very, very odd. QX has operated this route forever. Their only direct competition is WN, but this is the fastest and by far the easiest way to get from Boise to Northern Idaho. Wonder what is behind this one!

I thought so too, but it's probably a combination of WN and a declining commitment to BOI (former focus city).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Hatbutton
Posted 2009-11-13 08:41:20 and read 9809 times.



Quoting BNAtraveler (Reply 4):
Wonder what is behind this one!

Absolutely horrible yields. Everything under the sun was tried to make this route profitable. Just wasn't happening. You can only let something lose money for so long, and from what I've heard, it has lost money for quite a while.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-13 08:48:39 and read 9764 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 3):
True, but still under the FL code.

Correct - just wanted to make clear that those frequency increases don't come with much of an increase in capacity.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: MKE717spotter
Posted 2009-11-13 08:56:33 and read 9722 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
YX
BOS-MCI 1>0 JAN-APR

Does this mean its a seasonal cut? If so, has this route always been seasonal?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: BOStonsox
Posted 2009-11-13 09:09:15 and read 9656 times.

B6 announced more expansion in BOS, including new flights to CLT and DEN among others. Did you include that in a previous thread?

According to B6's website, the BOS-FLL flight will have 4 flights, not 3.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Pgtravel
Posted 2009-11-13 10:59:20 and read 9353 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
LGB-LAX 2>3 MAY-

I'm guessing this is something else. What is it really?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Flyinryan99
Posted 2009-11-13 11:04:44 and read 9319 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 3):
BTW, XJ published their whole schedule this week separately from NW under their XJ code. Odd? I wonder if it was a mistake.

I noticed that earlier in the week when I was looking at something and for example TOL-DTW had DL, NW, and XJ codes on it. Also, the XJ codes had different flight times.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Planespotting
Posted 2009-11-13 11:20:27 and read 9237 times.

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
FL

MKE-DSM 0>3 FEB-



Interesting thing that AirTran is doing here - partnering with Skywest to provide regional flights in seven markets.

http://dsmairport.com/PDF/SkyWest%20AirTranDSM.pdf

[Edited 2009-11-13 11:22:49 by planespotting - revised after reading press release]

[Edited 2009-11-13 11:23:31 by planespotting]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2009-11-13 11:22:27 and read 9218 times.



Quoting Planespotting (Reply 12):
MKE, especially since FL will enter with 3 717s, effectively quadrupling the number of seats on the route (From approx. 100 to 430 ish).

FL is "using" SkyWest CRJ's, so it's only 150 seats.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Knope2001
Posted 2009-11-13 12:42:20 and read 8998 times.

Thanks as always for the wealth of data, Enilria...

Quoting MKE717spotter (Reply 8):
Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
YX
BOS-MCI 1>0 JAN-APR

Does this mean its a seasonal cut? If so, has this route always been seasonal?

Yes, that notation indicates seasonal, meaning it ends January and returns April. If it were showing as a total drop it would just say BOS-MCI 1>0 JAN.

Next week the OAG tapes should show it returning, with the addition of an evening MCI-BOS in January. That started showing up for sale on the YX site just yesterday, so I suspect it will show up on the OAG files soon.

Today's MCI-BOS is at 6:00am, and that aircraft will go to MCI-RSW during winter. Hence MCI-BOS appears to be going to zero during January-April.

The just-added MCI-BOS trip (which should show up in OAG soon) is at 6:00pm, with an early morning return BOS-MCI. It's designed to dovetail for connections to and from LAX/SAN/SFO.

When MCI-RSW ends, the 6:00 MCI-BOS is planned to return, and as such they now have 2x/day MCI-BOS for sale starting later in April.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Panam330
Posted 2009-11-13 15:23:37 and read 8342 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
B6
Appears to me that they are not shifting nearly so much into transcon for the Summer as they traditionally have...or they haven't loaded it yet.

Holy Florida pulldown. It seems a little bit deeper of a cut than in previous years.

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
SLC-TPA 1>1/WK FEB-APR

Timing off this one seems a little off - pull down during the three months a year it makes the most sense to operate this daily.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: JetBluefan1
Posted 2009-11-13 16:06:14 and read 8155 times.



Quoting Panam330 (Reply 15):
Holy Florida pulldown. It seems a little bit deeper of a cut than in previous years.

Really? It seems similar to this past summer - which was a vast reduction over summer 2008. Northeast-Florida flying has definitely been pulled down in favor of more frequencies in other markets, specifically the Caribbean.

Nice to see that B6 has picked up an additional slot at LGA. Next summer will see 5x FLL, 3x MCO and 1x PBI. (This winter is 5x FLL, 2x MCO and 2x PBI).

JetBluefan1

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: SkyguyB727
Posted 2009-11-13 16:49:09 and read 8008 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
MKE-CAK 0>3 JAN-

Is there really enough demand for non-stop service between MKE and CAK to justify this? I find it hard to believe that there will be enough people in MKE with a burning desire to go to CAK and vice versa to support this.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: SANFan
Posted 2009-11-13 17:30:43 and read 7851 times.



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 14):
The just-added MCI-BOS trip (which should show up in OAG soon) is at 6:00pm, with an early morning return BOS-MCI. It's designed to dovetail for connections to and from LAX/SAN/SFO

Ummmm, Knope', are you letting some inside info out here or did you speak in error (or perhaps out of habit?) I, SANFan, am very curious about your second sentence... Please clarify or IM me if appropriate.

bb

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Knope2001
Posted 2009-11-13 17:35:25 and read 7842 times.



Quoting SANFan (Reply 18):
Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 14):
The just-added MCI-BOS trip (which should show up in OAG soon) is at 6:00pm, with an early morning return BOS-MCI. It's designed to dovetail for connections to and from LAX/SAN/SFO

Ummmm, Knope', are you letting some inside info out here or did you speak in error (or perhaps out of habit?) I, SANFan, am very curious about your second sentence... Please clarify or IM me if appropriate.

Rats....my mistake. Meant that to be MKE/SEA/SFO. I'm still hoping, thought!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2009-11-13 18:54:53 and read 7601 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
LGB-LAX 2>3 MAY-

 Confused  Confused

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: MtnWest1979
Posted 2009-11-13 19:02:10 and read 7565 times.



Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 17):
Is there really enough demand for non-stop service between MKE and CAK to justify this? I find it hard to believe that there will be enough people in MKE with a burning desire to go to CAK and vice versa to support this.

Well, add the 6 O and D pax with the 15 connecting thru MKE and.........well, I don't think it'll last long.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-13 20:01:34 and read 7382 times.



Quoting MKE717spotter (Reply 8):
Does this mean its a seasonal cut? If so, has this route always been seasonal?

Yes, see explanation at top of thread...

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 14):

Next week the OAG tapes should show it returning, with the addition of an evening MCI-BOS in January.

That's bizarre, so it is a screw up?

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 9):
B6 announced more expansion in BOS, including new flights to CLT and DEN among others. Did you include that in a previous thread?

They loaded DEN immediately after WN announced DEN-BOS. CLT was loaded a few weeks back as I remember.

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 9):
According to B6's website, the BOS-FLL flight will have 4 flights, not 3.

Who knows. I can't explain those types of things.

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 11):
Also, the XJ codes had different flight times.

Huh, weird...

Quoting Panam330 (Reply 15):
Timing off this one seems a little off - pull down during the three months a year it makes the most sense to operate this daily.

It appears that was the only period of time it was to run daily, it is normally only once per week, but I agree it would seem peak season deserves more.

Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 17):
Is there really enough demand for non-stop service between MKE and CAK to justify this?

NO...Good luck to them. CRJs are expensive to fly as well. Don't expect FL's normal fares.

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 10):
I'm guessing this is something else. What is it really?



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
LGB-LAX 2>3 MAY-

Confused Confused

Should be LGB-LAS 2>3, sorry!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Indy
Posted 2009-11-13 21:43:14 and read 7171 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 22):

NO...Good luck to them. CRJs are expensive to fly as well. Don't expect FL's normal fares.

I don't know. I'm finding those give away fares between IND and MKE on the CRJs as low as $49 each way.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2009-11-13 22:41:39 and read 7060 times.

SLC-OGG 1>0 MAR-

Dosnt seem to make sense this would add an extra stop for most (probably 90+%) of passengers in LAX. LAX has such limited connection power to the majority of origins of most OGG bound vacationers

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2009-11-14 02:32:32 and read 6859 times.



Quoting Slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 24):
LAX has such limited connection power to the majority of origins of most OGG bound vacationers

I don't know about that. Whenever I've gone to Maui most visitors seem to be from the big West Coast cities (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, LA/OC, San Diego), Phoenix, Denver, Chicago...all of which do have easy access to LAX or OGG itself.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: AZNCSA4QF744ER
Posted 2009-11-14 03:41:20 and read 6958 times.



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
LAX-SAN 0>5 FEB-

Wow more routes for OO at LAX This time they are flying this market competing with UA and DL....

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
SBA-LAX 6>8 JAN-
SBP-LAX 4>5 JAN-
YUM-LAX 4>5 JAN-

More OO pro-rate flying for UAX

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
SFO-DFW 1>2 FEB-

Are these mainline UA or OO/UAX?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-14 08:59:25 and read 6563 times.



Quoting Indy (Reply 23):
I'm finding those give away fares between IND and MKE on the CRJs as low as $49 each way.

In the MKE markets they've been in with mainline, I don't think they've changed the fares much. The question becomes, then, whether they can do any better with 35 $49 fares and 15 $99 connections on the CRJ than on mainline.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2009-11-14 17:37:38 and read 6314 times.



Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I don't know about that. Whenever I've gone to Maui most visitors seem to be from the big West Coast cities (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, LA/OC, San Diego), Phoenix, Denver, Chicago...all of which do have easy access to LAX or OGG itself.

I am sure alot more visitors than you think come from NYC the largest metro area in the country, BOS, Washington DC , DFW, IAH etc etc. etc.....

DL nor its partners can get you from the cities you listed Denver, Phoenix, Chicago to LAX non-stop these and most cities would require a connection in SLC or another DL hub anyways to get you to LAX for the Maui flight.

For SAN, SFO, PDX, SEA these would all require flights on AS and were already possible with the one LAX flight. Plus why wouldn't most of these people just fly AS since they have to fly it anyways and AS has nonstops to Maui from 7 US gateways starting soon including the bay area 2 airports, SEA, SAC,and PDX. AA (LAX) and UA (all of those cities) have much larger FF numbers in these areas.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-14 17:49:08 and read 6302 times.



Quoting Indy (Reply 23):
I don't know. I'm finding those give away fares between IND and MKE on the CRJs as low as $49 each way.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 27):
The question becomes, then, whether they can do any better with 35 $49 fares and 15 $99 connections on the CRJ than on mainline.

I don't know about better, but the CRJ can't make money on two digit fares. I would call this the "intro fare" period. It will end and I expect the fares to go up to where the average is more like $119 one way soon. If they don't do that then it won't make money. One might wonder if Skywest is doing this in retaliation to Republic, in which case they intend to lose money.

Quoting Slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 24):
Dosnt seem to make sense this would add an extra stop for most (probably 90+%) of passengers in LAX.

I don't think the intent is to carry connects through two stops, but it will serve the large Calif market as well as single stop from SLC and other places.

Quoting AZNCSA4QF744ER (Reply 26):
More OO pro-rate flying for UAX

Maybe...Skywest is putting a lot of risk on the table lately.

Quoting AZNCSA4QF744ER (Reply 26):
Are these mainline UA or OO/UAX?

319s.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2009-11-14 17:57:50 and read 6290 times.



Quoting Slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 28):

I am sure alot more visitors than you think come from NYC the largest metro area in the country, BOS, Washington DC , DFW, IAH etc etc. etc.....

The numbers are not at all significant.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-14 18:15:48 and read 6253 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 29):
I don't know about better, but the CRJ can't make money on two digit fares. I would call this the "intro fare" period. It will end and I expect the fares to go up to where the average is more like $119 one way soon.

I guess I wonder why that hasn't happened yet; we ought to be past the intro period on a route like MKE-STL.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 29):
One might wonder if Skywest is doing this in retaliation to Republic, in which case they intend to lose money.

They wouldn't be doing places like CAK if it were retaliatory.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-11-14 18:24:24 and read 6236 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):
They wouldn't be doing places like CAK if it were retaliatory.

Oh, I dunno. Doesn't it create a neat little quandary for Frontier/Midwest?

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Atrude777
Posted 2009-11-14 18:41:04 and read 6205 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):

I guess I wonder why that hasn't happened yet; we ought to be past the intro period on a route like MKE-STL.

Read: WN

When FL prob was going to end the "intro fare" WN came in with their own 49 one way type of thing, and FL had to match.

WN is 53 total one way STL-MKE with a connection to make it 73 total with tax and such.

Looking further out it seems thats gonna be the lowest fare period for 144 r/t.

Why is the tax so dang high, does MKE have a high PFC?

Alex

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-14 18:47:16 and read 6186 times.



Quoting Atrude777 (Reply 33):
Read: WN

...and if that's the answer, it means the prices aren't going anywhere, as WN isn't going anywhere.

I don't think WN is making any money on that, though, either.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Atrude777
Posted 2009-11-14 19:02:21 and read 6160 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 34):

...and if that's the answer, it means the prices aren't going anywhere, as WN isn't going anywhere.

I don't think WN is making any money on that, though, either.

I don't think WN is loosing or making money, STL-MKE is connected via MCI and BWI, both cities which are easily filled by WN out of STL.

My family has been flying STL-BWI r/t myself included and everyone of us has reported our flights have been overselling, not just at full but overselling. So it is my thinking that WN can offer cheap fares, via MCI/BWI, knowing they'd be full anyway and undercut FL or match them or BE matched by them I guess, and not really lose to much.

You know the saying "you can afford to lose money" but for how long is the question...

Alex

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-14 19:32:42 and read 6127 times.



Quoting Atrude777 (Reply 35):
I don't think WN is loosing or making money

Come on. $53 for STL-MKE via BWI is about 5 cents a mile. They are losing money. If they are overselling STL-BWI, it's highly likely they could make more money doing something else with those seats.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-15 11:49:42 and read 5806 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):

I guess I wonder why that hasn't happened yet; we ought to be past the intro period on a route like MKE-STL.

They can't raise them there because the market is a trainwreck and now it has YX in it too. There are only three possibilities: 1) Skywest is clueless and can't do a simple profitability analysis based on current fares, 2) AirTran is really covering the loss even though they pretty clearly said they weren't in the release (it's illegal to lie to investors isn't it?), or 3) Skywest is retaliating either for YX dropping them or simply to wound them as they compete for RJ deals constantly. De-stabilizing them (or piling on to the group already doing so) will make it more expensive for RJET to borrow money, push their stock down, etc. That all gives Skywest an advantage in low-bidding for future RJ work. Keep in mind, Skywest is basically the only large regional that hasn't tried running its own airline...YET. Thus, they are already Switzerland with the airlines in that working with anybody else is sleeping with the enemy. Skywest's plan seems to be to revert back to prorate flying to allow expansion in the anti-RJ environment. That's probably wiser than Independence Air or Mesa or XJET or Republic have been.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):
They wouldn't be doing places like CAK if it were retaliatory.

CAK is virtually the same as CLE in terms of passenger base and FL is much better known at CAK.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-15 12:02:15 and read 5786 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 37):
CAK is virtually the same as CLE in terms of passenger base

Is that why AA flies CAK-ORD and CAK-DFW and US has nothing smaller than an E75 on CAK-CLT?

The two aren't the same market, and service levels reflect that (except for DL to ATL).

Quoting Enilria (Reply 37):
De-stabilizing them (or piling on to the group already doing so) will make it more expensive for RJET to borrow money, push their stock down, etc.

Can 4 OO frames in a handful of markets really make that much of a difference to RAH?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/Y
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-11-16 11:05:03 and read 5309 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):
The two aren't the same market, and service levels reflect that (except for DL to ATL).

So how does Frontier/Midwest resolve the quandary?

Do they consolidate at CAK or at CLE, or simply keep them separate?

And if they are different markets, could they start DEN-CLE but also retain DEN-CAK?

I dunno.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-16 11:14:09 and read 5291 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 39):
So how does Frontier/Midwest resolve the quandary?

It's an interesting question. I don't think CAK-MKE will make money, and WN doesn't (yet?) fly DEN-CLE. Those both seem to militate toward consolidation at CLE. OTOH, WN will not be in CAK for the foreseeable future.

It's the proverbial small piece of a big pie versus big piece of a small pie question.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-16 17:51:24 and read 5009 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):
Is that why AA flies CAK-ORD and CAK-DFW and US has nothing smaller than an E75 on CAK-CLT?

Last I looked CAK-ATL had a local market comparable to CLE-ATL. CAK is an airport built around LCC service and that service does well because it usually has a price advantage versus CLE. That allows them to steal a disproportionate amount of traffic from CLE. The majors don't price the markets differently when there is no LCC service and that results in no compelling reason to use CAK over CLE in a route like CLT. That all seems pretty basic to me. Clearly its the same passenger base.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):

The two aren't the same market, and service levels reflect that (except for DL to ATL).

If the passengers there aren't coming from CLE, I don't know where you think they are coming from. CAK runs TV and radio all day long in CLE and had a billboard right outside CLE for years.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):
Can 4 OO frames in a handful of markets really make that much of a difference to RAH?

Again, it's the piling on effect. Does B6 adding SFO-FLL drive VX out of business? No, but it's just another stone being lobbed at them by others hopeful of their destruction. B6 had no reason to defend SFO-FLL. They were going to lose ZERO traffic as a result of VX flying that. It is only there out of spite and a desire to make another small contribution to their demise. Same with Skywest unless it is one of my other listed reasons.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 39):
So how does Frontier/Midwest resolve the quandary?

Do they consolidate at CAK or at CLE, or simply keep them separate?

And if they are different markets, could they start DEN-CLE but also retain DEN-CAK?



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 40):
It's an interesting question. I don't think CAK-MKE will make money, and WN doesn't (yet?) fly DEN-CLE. Those both seem to militate toward consolidation at CLE. OTOH, WN will not be in CAK for the foreseeable future.

I predict they consolidate in CAK because WN service on CLE-DEN is a ticking timebomb. WN will announce it and consolidating there will 100% insure that. FNT is a little tougher. Don't know what they will do there because WN just added DEN-DTW and F9 is not apt to run from new WN flights.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-16 18:01:06 and read 4987 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 41):
If the passengers there aren't coming from CLE, I don't know where you think they are coming from.

Many (not all, but probably most) passengers are coming from Cleveland, but that certainly does not mean that the two airports have the same passengers base.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 41):
I predict they consolidate in CAK because WN service on CLE-DEN is a ticking timebomb.

But if, as you posit, CAK and CLE are the same market, what difference does CLE-DEN make to which airport they choose?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: JetBluefan1
Posted 2009-11-16 18:30:22 and read 4954 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 41):
B6 had no reason to defend SFO-FLL. They were going to lose ZERO traffic as a result of VX flying that.

Actually, if I remember correctly, SFO-AUS-FLL was sold as a direct flight - and from what I heard, a large amount of passengers flying SFO-AUS continued onto the FLL segment. Albeit a rather insignificant amount of traffic, the traffic from both ends were used to supplement the O&D in AUS.

That being said, I agree with you that B6 added SFO-FLL to make another small contribution toward VX's demise. Is it the smartest strategy? Perhaps not, but with their large FLL operation and growing SFO operation, there is some sense behind it.

JetBluefan1

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: JA
Posted 2009-11-16 19:39:09 and read 4881 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 29):
I don't know about better, but the CRJ can't make money on two digit fares.

The ERJ can make money on two digit fares up to about 1h 20m flying time, so the CRJ should be able to do it up to 1h 15m.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-16 19:43:44 and read 4877 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Many (not all, but probably most) passengers are coming from Cleveland, but that certainly does not mean that the two airports have the same passengers base.

I would call that semantics. I bet if you look at the passengers who fly out of CAK and fly several times per year, nearly every one of them has used CLE in the last year or two. That to me is the same passenger base, but I guess your definition is different. I guess SFO and OAK don't have the same passenger base by your definition, but by mine they do.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
But if, as you posit, CAK and CLE are the same market, what difference does CLE-DEN make to which airport they choose?

I think WN is more likely to respond head2 head in CLE. There is already demonstrated evidence by the fact that they haven't added yet from DEN. Of course, they will probably add it anyway!

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 43):
Actually, if I remember correctly, SFO-AUS-FLL was sold as a direct flight - and from what I heard, a large amount of passengers flying SFO-AUS continued onto the FLL segment. Albeit a rather insignificant amount of traffic, the traffic from both ends were used to supplement the O&D in AUS.

If that was their worry think how much both of them flying the route has hurt the flow traffic now!

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 43):

That being said, I agree with you that B6 added SFO-FLL to make another small contribution toward VX's demise.

Exactly. So many people here see things in such absolutes. The airline business is death by a thousand knives. No single knife can inflict severe damage. If an airline adds a competitive route it is merely a signal or an attempt to become the stick that broke the camel's back. Sometimes it is good business, but sadly those are fewer than people think.
It's kind of an industry run by little boys with train sets that like to set them up for head on collisions.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/Y
Username: Mariner
Posted 2009-11-16 20:14:16 and read 4827 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 40):
I don't think CAK-MKE will make money, and WN doesn't (yet?) fly DEN-CLE. Those both seem to militate toward consolidation at CLE. OTOH, WN will not be in CAK for the foreseeable future.

I'm not quite as negative about Airtran's CAK-MKE as some. I doubt it will be gangbusters, but I'm not sure they're expecting it to be.

I guess it can be justified as connecting two focus cities, or a focus city and a hub, if that is what MKE is these days.

As to the possibility of DEN-CLE, I'm not sure Frontier/Midwest can be overly concerned with what Southwest might do.

If they were, they'd never start anything. But, as I said, I don't know what they'll do here - if they do anything.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FL787
Posted 2009-11-16 20:47:06 and read 4772 times.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
I'm not quite as negative about Airtran's CAK-MKE as some. I doubt it will be gangbusters, but I'm not sure they're expecting it to be.

It seems like kind of an odd route but I'm not too pessimistic because if FL can fly CAK-LGA/BOS why can't they get some westward traffic as well? I know a CRJ is different than a 717 but FL seems to do well at CAK.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-17 08:15:22 and read 4613 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 45):
I bet if you look at the passengers who fly out of CAK and fly several times per year, nearly every one of them has used CLE in the last year or two.

I agree, but all that you're saying is that when people can't use CAK to get where they need to go, they go to CLE.

The percentage of CLE passengers who have used CAK is likely much lower.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 47):
It seems like kind of an odd route but I'm not too pessimistic because if FL can fly CAK-LGA/BOS why can't they get some westward traffic as well?

...because the CAK-LGA local market is likely sixteen times the size of the CAK-MKE local market and the CAK-BOS local market is likely six times the size of the CAK-MKE local market - that's the market size difference in CLE, anyway.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FL787
Posted 2009-11-17 14:10:33 and read 4396 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 48):
Quoting FL787 (Reply 47):
It seems like kind of an odd route but I'm not too pessimistic because if FL can fly CAK-LGA/BOS why can't they get some westward traffic as well?

...because the CAK-LGA local market is likely sixteen times the size of the CAK-MKE local market and the CAK-BOS local market is likely six times the size of the CAK-MKE local market - that's the market size difference in CLE, anyway.

Yeah that was poorly worded. I was more talking about people in CAK being loyal to FL so it's possible FL may get a lot of CAK travelers heading west. You're right though, obviously there's no denying the fact there is barely any O&D on CAK-MKE.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-17 15:15:37 and read 4343 times.



Quoting FL787 (Reply 49):
I was more talking about people in CAK being loyal to FL so it's possible FL may get a lot of CAK travelers heading west.

I think they will, and for those passengers, MKE is a better choice than ATL (why doesn't FL fly CAK-BWI, btw?).

None of the westbound markets is huge, though:
MSP 10.5 PDEW
OMA, STL, and DSM are less than 8 PDEW
DFW 28 PDEW
DEN 121.5 PDEW (existing n/s service)
PHX 29 PDEW
LAX 25.5 PDEW
LAS 54 PDEW
SAN 16.5 PDEW
SFO 14.5 PDEW
SEA 17.5 PDEW

The DEN number shows a lot of potential for stimulation with n/s, low-fare service; the potential for stimulation is probably somewhat less with connecting service but is likely still there.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FL787
Posted 2009-11-17 15:33:50 and read 4305 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 50):
I think they will, and for those passengers, MKE is a better choice than ATL

For sure. Personally I think CAK will do a whole lot better than OMA and DSM just because CAK is an existing FL market and a non-YX market.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 50):
(why doesn't FL fly CAK-BWI, btw?).

I've wondered that as well. I figure that there is not enough O&D between CAK and BWI to support the flights and after you take away BOS (because there's a nonstop) there aren't many places passengers would connect to through BWI. Maybe we could see CAK-BWI seasonally when BWI-Northeast flights are in full swing. DAY is the opposite of CAK. It has no LGA or BOS flights but it has BWI flights.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-17 18:28:12 and read 4196 times.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 48):

I agree, but all that you're saying is that when people can't use CAK to get where they need to go, they go to CLE.

There isn't much left for me to debate because to me the statement above is the definition of a shared passenger base. You seem to have another definition.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 51):
I've wondered that as well. I figure that there is not enough O&D between CAK and BWI to support the flights

I'm guessing its bigger than MKE-CAK.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FL787
Posted 2009-11-17 18:36:01 and read 4170 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 52):
Quoting FL787 (Reply 51):
I've wondered that as well. I figure that there is not enough O&D between CAK and BWI to support the flights

I'm guessing its bigger than MKE-CAK.

Yeah, but there are no CRJs in BWI so it would have to be a 717. I'm not sure there's that type of O&D.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-17 18:40:36 and read 4158 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 52):
You seem to have another definition.

It's a question of degree, I think. There are probably a fair number of people who usually use MSN who have driven to MKE or ORD for a flight at some point, but I wouldn't say that MSN has the same passenger base as either of those airports.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Knope2001
Posted 2009-11-18 15:42:03 and read 3945 times.

That Akron-Milwaukee route is the one which makes me wonder if there’s more to the Skywest-AirTran deal than meets the eye. To hear AirTran describe it, they have the best of both worlds – all the benefit of a feeder operation but without any financial risk. Skywest determines when, where and how much for these code share flights.

Replacing AirTran to Indy, Pittsburgh, and St Louis? Makes sense. Loans on the 717’s and 737’s are light, and the increased frequency makes the service much more useful for travelers. Omaha and Des Moines? Decent picks considering that the AirTran flights to the east tend to have the most need and room for connecting passengers. But let’s look at Akron for a moment.

It hardly seems that Akron is a market that Skywest would have chosen on their own, as there are notably larger markets AirTran serves where flights to Milwaukee would have a much better economic shot. Think Detroit, Dayton, or Columbus, for example. If indeed Skywest is deciding when and where to fly, and the financial burden is all on them, Akron seems an odd pick. I don’t understand why Skywest would choose Akron-Milwaukee if they are alone bearing the financial risk.

I’m sure some will say that we’re underestimating how Akron will do, and that linking Akron to the Milwaukee operation is a key way to give AirTran better links west. Well, I don’t see why Skywest should lose money to give better western service from Akron, but let’s say for a moment that Skywest believes the Akron-westbound connections will make this viable. The schedules…which again are supposedly controlled by risk-bearing Skywest…are largely awful for connectivity.

The first CAK-MKE flight arrives Milwaukee at 10:40am. Where can it connect to? There’s a Denver flight at 12:30 and a Des Moines flight at 1:30. That’s it.

The next CAK-MKE flight arrives Milwaukee at 2:10pm, and it feeds exactly one westbound flight…a St Louis trip at 2:45pm.

The last CAK-MKE flight arrives Milwaukee at 7:10pm and is the only one with a reasonable range of connecting flights.

Westbound is just as bad.

The 7:40am MKE-CAK flight has some very-early-morning connections from STL/MSP/OMA/DSM and the Vegas red-eye.

The 11:10am MKE-CAK has just feed from Dallas, a connection of nearly 3 hours.

The 4:10pm MKE-CAK has just fee from Seattle, a connection of about 2.5 hours.

The scheduling of these Akron flights is remarkable to put it nicely.

There is of course going to be some stimulation of MKE-CAK with low fares, but it just doesn’t seem anywhere near the market to fill the 150/day each way capacity coming up. Akron’s low fares have pulled traffic away from PIT and CLE, but PIT-MKE also has the same low-fare AirTran nonstops, and if Cleveland has significant bleed you can bet CO and YX fares will fall.

So given that….

(1) CAK-MKE is a small market which seems rather unlikely to support the level of service coming on its own.

(2) CAK-MKE connection opportunities are stunningly absent

(3) There are a number of other, larger markets which would have a better shot at supporting this service.

(4) Skywest is supposedly making the decisions on when/where/how much for this venture.

(5) Skywest is supposedly taking the full financial risk.

…can anyone explain why they are flying CAK-MKE, to the exclusion of other stronger markets, at times which seem to seal the fate of the market?

It makes me think that there’s more going on here than meets the eye. Just what that is, I’d love to know.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FL787
Posted 2009-11-18 16:19:09 and read 3912 times.



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):

Wow, good post. I wish I had the answers for you. I hadn't realized how horribly timed the flights are besides the late CAK-MKE. CAK definitely is the odd one out of the six OO routes and now I'm just as curious as you are as to why CAK was chosen.

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):
It makes me think that there’s more going on here than meets the eye.

What do you think is going on? I know you tend to be pro-YX but you definitely have the best MKE analyses on A-net.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-18 16:54:45 and read 3876 times.



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):
There is of course going to be some stimulation of MKE-CAK with low fares, but it just doesn’t seem anywhere near the market to fill the 150/day each way capacity coming up.

We can get an idea on the stimulation potential by looking at DEN, I think.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 50):
MSP 10.5 PDEW
OMA, STL, and DSM are less than 8 PDEW
DFW 28 PDEW
DEN 121.5 PDEW (existing n/s service)
PHX 29 PDEW
LAX 25.5 PDEW
LAS 54 PDEW
SAN 16.5 PDEW
SFO 14.5 PDEW
SEA 17.5 PDEW

I looked at some nearby markets that had similar competitive environments to DEN and nearby airports to get a rough idea of what the demand to DEN might be like with similar service levels and fares to the other cities:

CVG

DEN: 195 passengers/day
LAS: 281 passengers/day
PHX: 145 passengers/day

STL

DEN: 839 passengers/day
LAS: 808 passengers/day
PHX: 716 passengres/day

BNA

DEN: 615 passengers/day
LAS: 546 passengers/day
PHX: 440 passengers/day

In most markets where the fares are similar, the demand to DEN is close to the demand to LAS and PHX. I'd put the "un-stimulated" demand on CAK-DEN at somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 PDEW, meaning that the nonstop, low-fare service results in something like 300-400 percent stimulation by my VERY rought estimate. That's probably the best case for CAK-MKE, and we're looking at something on the order of 20-25 PDEW with that level of stimulation.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Enilria
Posted 2009-11-18 18:11:07 and read 3818 times.



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):
Replacing AirTran to Indy, Pittsburgh, and St Louis? Makes sense.

Here is what is interesting. Those flights were mostly overnights in those stations. That means instead of the plane getting up at 0700 and flying to MKE to go on West, now the plane will spend a long night in MKE. The cost of those flights was VERY low. The aircraft was basically free as it was and will soon be unused at that time of day. So their cost per seat on a variable basis was probably something like $40-50. As I've said, the full cost of the CRJ-200 is probably around $100-110/seat. I see no reason those flights would be accounted for on a variable only basis since it is a whole new operation flown throughout the day. Bottom line, if these things were so awful that $40-50/seat couldn't be achieved, something is majorly fishy.

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):
The schedules…which again are supposedly controlled by risk-bearing Skywest…are largely awful for connectivity.

See my next point, but it is not unusual for the big airline to "tell" the little guy where to fly under their code even with a prorate arrangement. In fact, the parent airline usually has the ability to approve or reject routes.

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 55):

It makes me think that there’s more going on here than meets the eye. Just what that is, I’d love to know.

We may agree on this. There is a concept in airline proration called a "prorate floor". I suspect AirTran has guaranteed Skywest a minimum fare that allows them to breakeven with a reasonable load factor. This means AirTran will be underwriting the whole thing big time.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 57):
We can get an idea on the stimulation potential by looking at DEN, I think. ...That's probably the best case for CAK-MKE, and we're looking at something on the order of 20-25 PDEW with that level of stimulation.

Wow, that was a crazy extrapolation to get to 20-25 MKE passengers. DEN has nothing to do with it. DEN is an island geographically and doesn't compete with any other large airport (COS, ha ha ha). MKE has to steal from ORD (or steal back from ORD) to grow its passenger base. They market the airport as "Chicago's Third Airport" for heaven sakes. Additionally, as I have frequently said...CAK steals traffic from CLE. CLE has WN to MDW. CLE has tons of low priced ORD service. CAK has ORD service as well. This is what I call a double alternate meaning both city A and city B are alternates to another bigger market. Double alternates rarely work. Ask Skybus.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2009-11-18 20:18:21 and read 3742 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 58):
Double alternates rarely work. Ask Skybus.

...which is why I didn't account it for MKE's proximity to Chicago, only for CAK's proximity to CLE, which does have n/s service to MKE. MKE generates some traffic on its own, and presumably those who actually need to fly CAK-MKE and are now going to CLE will use the CAK service, and those who are from Clevelant and are using CLE-MKE and wouldn't mind driving to CAK and paying a little less will do that.

I see it as very much analogous to DEN, because I don't think they'll pick up a lot of CAK-CHI traffic for the reasons you have elucidated.

That said, it's a bit of an academic argument; 25 local PDEW isn't going to make or break this, and 15 PDEW wouldn't either.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/13/09:AS/B6/DL/FL/NK/NW/UA/US/YX
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2009-11-18 20:34:37 and read 3722 times.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 58):
I suspect AirTran has guaranteed Skywest a minimum fare that allows them to breakeven with a reasonable load factor.

But it's SkyWest that is setting the fares on the CAK-MKE segment...not FL.


Quoting Enilria (Reply 58):
CLE has WN to MDW. CLE has tons of low priced ORD service. CAK has ORD service as well. This is what I call a double alternate meaning both city A and city B are alternates to another bigger market.

True, but for many in the northern Chicago suburbs (and I don't mean Evanston or Skokie), neither ORD nor MDW are particularly desirable airports to use. Both have significant hassle factors that MKE doesn't have.


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