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Topic: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: b741
Posted 2010-03-02 10:24:54 and read 17639 times.

I just read a recent article in AW&ST saying that 64 747-400s are in storage. There were 16 stored last year and now the highest since 2004 when 4% were stored. Seems the graveyards keep filling up.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: Macsog6
Posted 2010-03-02 10:30:15 and read 17601 times.

Going into storage is not the same as going to the graveyard. As long as thr aircraft is properly stored, it can be put back into service at a later time. A graveyard is, at least to me, where parts are stripped, the storage is not as controlled, and there is little to no intention to return the aircraft to duty.

Some places admittedly do both, Davis Monthan is an example.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: N328KF
Posted 2010-03-02 10:50:12 and read 17458 times.

Quoting Macsog6 (Reply 1):
Some places admittedly do both, Davis Monthan is an example.

Yes, but as history has shown, no aircraft at AMARC/AMARG is truly dead until it meets the guillotine.  

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-03-02 11:04:30 and read 17336 times.

Quoting b741 (Thread starter):
I just read a recent article in AW&ST saying that 64 747-400s are in storage.

In this economy/oil environment I'm surprised it is that few.    Seriously. That is a good sign for the 744 when the economy rebounds.

Note: I expect the long term fate of most 744's is as freighters. However, if RASM improves, I expect the 744's to be pulled back into service until 77W's, 787's, A350's, A380's, or A330's are delivered for long term utilization.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: b741
Posted 2010-03-02 12:06:49 and read 17020 times.

IIRC, UAL has about 30% of that stored total. That is, if there were no buyers for the surplus a/c.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: n471wn
Posted 2010-03-02 12:35:52 and read 16857 times.

Only one 747-400 has been scrapped and that was a high time Air New Zealand a/c.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: United787
Posted 2010-03-02 12:37:45 and read 16843 times.

Quoting b741 (Reply 4):
IIRC, UAL has about 30% of that stored total. That is, if there were no buyers for the surplus a/c.

I know that from the website below, UAL still owns the 6 recently retired 744s:

187, 193, 194, 195, 196 & 198

http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/NNum_Inquiry.aspx

That is less than 10%. I am sure there are others in storage that they did own or lease at one time, but do they own any other 744s?

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: dalca
Posted 2010-03-02 12:39:15 and read 16820 times.

Is there a list somewhere or can we compile one here?

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2010-03-02 12:50:15 and read 16729 times.

I think that another thing to bear in mind is that there was a large production "bulge"in the early days when the -400 was new - there must be a correspondingly large number of frames that are already in , or close to , the 'plus or minus 20 year old' bracket , so it is not too surprising that a relatively large proportion of the fleet are either semi-retired or permanently retired . ( this makes me feel    as I can remember when the -400 was the 'latest and greatest'! ) .

BTW Does anyone have exact figures on how many -400s were assembled in the period 1988-1991 inclusive , I am pretty sure that it is a disproportionate number in comparison to the total built over the entire production life of the model but would be curious to know for sure ?

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2010-03-02 13:02:22 and read 16609 times.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 8):
I think that another thing to bear in mind is that

Some B744 are simply being replaced. QF, for example have received 6 A380 leading to 6 B744s heading to the desert. Now true if the economy was in better shape they might have found buyers by now, but hey would still have been stored for a while.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2010-03-02 13:46:28 and read 16384 times.

Would G4 for instance ever pick up 747s? I realize that would be a big leap both operationally and cost-wise, but could they do a European-style ~500 pax "Mickey Mouse Shuttle"? IF they did go this route, what I'm thinking of here is that their angle would be rock-bottom pricing in say NYC.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: tharanga
Posted 2010-03-02 13:56:49 and read 16324 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 3):
Note: I expect the long term fate of most 744's is as freighters.

I hope Boeing has expected this, when surveying the market for new frames of 748F?

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: 1stfl94
Posted 2010-03-02 14:04:41 and read 16286 times.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 8):
BTW Does anyone have exact figures on how many -400s were assembled in the period 1988-1991 inclusive , I am pretty sure that it is a disproportionate number in comparison to the total built over the entire production life of the model but would be curious to know for sure ?

I think there might actually be quite a large proportion of the total production, given how many operators got their first planes from 1989-1991, the only real exceptions being Virgin (1994), Air India and Air China (both in 1993 I think) and Saudi Arabian (1997).

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2010-03-02 14:05:07 and read 16285 times.

Quoting tharanga (Reply 11):
I hope Boeing has expected this, when surveying the market for new frames of 748F?

I am sure that they have , but just as the presence of large numbers of -200s in the secondhand market years ago did not prevent Boeing selling around 160 purpose built -400F and -400ERF , so I suspect the availability of large numbers of elderly -400s will not prevent sales of -8Fs ( in fact with 76 already ordered before EIS the -8F is already at nearly 50% of the total orders for the -400F over its entire lifetime ) .

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: 777STL
Posted 2010-03-02 14:21:28 and read 16208 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 10):
Would G4 for instance ever pick up 747s? I realize that would be a big leap both operationally and cost-wise, but could they do a European-style ~500 pax "Mickey Mouse Shuttle"? IF they did go this route, what I'm thinking of here is that their angle would be rock-bottom pricing in say NYC.

Doubtful. G4 doesn't have the infrastructure as a business to support such aircraft, and it's much easier to fill an MD80 than it is a 744. And on the same token, an MD80 flying around half empty is much less wasteful than a 744 flying around half empty. G4 seems to have found a nice niche flying ancient MD80s to vacation destinations - if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: N328KF
Posted 2010-03-02 14:24:03 and read 16170 times.

1989: 41
1990: 62
1991: 62
1992: 61
1993: 56
1994: 40
1995: 25
1996: 26
1997: 39
1998: 53
1999: 47
2000: 25
2001: 31
2002: 27
2003: 19
2004: 15
2005: 13
2006: 14
2007: 16
2008: 14
2009: 8

(From BCA order site.)

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2010-03-02 14:39:08 and read 16093 times.

Thanks Joe ,    ... so in short , by the end of this year , more than 100 744s will be in their twenties , not too surprising that a number are either temporarily or permanently retired .

Quoting N328KF (Reply 15):
1989: 41
1990: 62

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: PlaneAdmirer
Posted 2010-03-02 14:42:50 and read 16057 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 10):
Would G4 for instance ever pick up 747s? I realize that would be a big leap both operationally and cost-wise, but could they do a European-style ~500 pax "Mickey Mouse Shuttle"? IF they did go this route, what I'm thinking of here is that their angle would be rock-bottom pricing in say NYC.

Sounds like Tower Air and that didn't go that well.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: FX1816
Posted 2010-03-02 14:46:17 and read 16033 times.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 16):
Thanks Joe , ... so in short , by the end of this year , more than 100 744s will be in their twenties , not too surprising that a number are either temporarily or permanently retired .

Yeah 20 and 21, the age thing is really a moot point as there are 757's and 767's that are older than that and still flying. Heck what about the NW/DL DC-9's of the past few years. What about the NW A320's and now the AF A320's that are or have been broken up the past few years and the A320 came out around the same time. What exactly is your point then about 744 age?

FX1816

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2010-03-02 14:53:30 and read 15979 times.

Quoting FX1816 (Reply 18):
Yeah 20 and 21, the age thing is really a moot point as there are 757's and 767's that are older than that and still flying. Heck what about the NW/DL DC-9's of the past few years. What about the NW A320's and now the AF A320's that are or have been broken up the past few years and the A320 came out around the same time. What exactly is your point then about 744 age?

Please dont get me wrong , I am not one of those "old aircraft are dangerous" nuts , but fuel economy is a lot more of a factor in operating costs for longhaul than for the shorthaul aircraft which you gave as examples - while well maintained aircraft can carry on more of less for ever they may not remain the best choice economically for longhaul . I personally would quite happily fly on a well maintained 40 year old aircraft ... but I am not sure that a longhaul airline can make money doing so .

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: flynorth
Posted 2010-03-02 15:19:36 and read 15868 times.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 19):
Quoting FX1816 (Reply 18):
Yeah 20 and 21, the age thing is really a moot point as there are 757's and 767's that are older than that and still flying. Heck what about the NW/DL DC-9's of the past few years. What about the NW A320's and now the AF A320's that are or have been broken up the past few years and the A320 came out around the same time. What exactly is your point then about 744 age?

Please dont get me wrong , I am not one of those "old aircraft are dangerous" nuts , but fuel economy is a lot more of a factor in operating costs for longhaul than for the shorthaul aircraft which you gave as examples - while well maintained aircraft can carry on more of less for ever they may not remain the best choice economically for longhaul . I personally would quite happily fly on a well maintained 40 year old aircraft ... but I am not sure that a longhaul airline can make money doing so .

  

That an airplane is safe to fly and that some plane models fly for a long time with certain airlines, doesn't mean that the economic lifetime of a plane model is indefinite. I'm not claiming that I know what the economic lifetime of the average 744 is but around 20 years sounds reasonable. After that increased operating costs and competition from never and more efficient plane models will put an end to the 744 era. That era has probably started to end (even if it will take years before it is over), driven by 777, A380 and 748 replacement and heavy maintenance. And probably speeded up by the economic turndown.


Cheers,
flynorth

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: AirNovaBAe146
Posted 2010-03-02 15:45:02 and read 15720 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 10):
Would G4 for instance ever pick up 747s? I realize that would be a big leap both operationally and cost-wise, but could they do a European-style ~500 pax "Mickey Mouse Shuttle"? IF they did go this route, what I'm thinking of here is that their angle would be rock-bottom pricing in say NYC.

How come we haven't seen many B744s migrate to third world airlines?

I've seen DC-10s, L1011s, and even B762s migrate there, now its the 744's turn.
You'd think it would have a niche, providing links to the business centers of the world. LHR, CDG, DXB, not to mention cargo ought to be able to fill a 744 on a regular basis from the third world to the first world.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: b741
Posted 2010-03-02 15:55:05 and read 15564 times.

For monthy lists of aircraft going into storage, try Aviation Letter or World Airline Fleets News. I find AL more comprehensive, with back issues available from 1992 onwards.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: trintocan
Posted 2010-03-02 16:18:12 and read 15215 times.

Quoting FX1816 (Reply 18):
What about the NW A320's and now the AF A320's that are or have been broken up the past few years and the A320 came out around the same time. What exactly is your point then about 744 age?

Remember that the aging of aircraft is mostly related to cycles rather than chronological age. As a result, short-haul planes like A320s accumulate cycles far more quickly than do long-haul jets and thus tend to be retired earlier. That said, indeed 20 years is the expected economic lifespan of a 747.

Quoting AirNovaBAe146 (Reply 21):
How come we haven't seen many B744s migrate to third world airlines?

I think one should say "second or third tier" airlines rather than Third World, as third tier airlines may be found anywhere and indeed many airlines from Developing Nations have completely up-to-date fleets. That aside, 747-400s are still very valuable and are only now being shed by original owners so residual values are still quite high.

TrinToCan.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: theredbaron
Posted 2010-03-02 20:02:55 and read 13051 times.

Maybe those 744 are approaching C and D checks and in the current economy is non productive to invest a lot of money in manteniance, store them, use newer aircraft, and / or wait ...

regards TRB

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-03-02 20:28:50 and read 13142 times.

Quoting trintocan (Reply 23):
Remember that the aging of aircraft is mostly related to cycles rather than chronological age. As a result, short-haul planes like A320s accumulate cycles far more quickly than do long-haul jets and thus tend to be retired earlier. That said, indeed 20 years is the expected economic lifespan of a 747.

Correct, cycles is more important than age. The 744's may be older, but generally have significantly less cycles due to the longer stage lengths of flights. Hence why many airlines keep their widebodies for 20-30 years.

Quoting trintocan (Reply 23):
I think one should say "second or third tier" airlines rather than Third World, as third tier airlines may be found anywhere and indeed many airlines from Developing Nations have completely up-to-date fleets. That aside, 747-400s are still very valuable and are only now being shed by original owners so residual values are still quite high.

Most third world airlines and countries don't have the infrastructure to handle a 744, or need such a large aircraft.

Quoting theredbaron (Reply 24):
Maybe those 744 are approaching C and D checks and in the current economy is non productive to invest a lot of money in manteniance, store them, use newer aircraft, and / or wait ...

The reason a lot of 744's are parked is that there is a finite amount of routes that can use the capacity of the 744, let alone profitably.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: UnitedFA07
Posted 2010-03-02 20:59:31 and read 13076 times.

Since I'm merely only a FA, what are the A, B,C, and D checks exactly? I still say there should be an Index on here explaining such things.
  

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: Gemuser
Posted 2010-03-02 21:56:13 and read 12790 times.

Quoting UnitedFA07 (Reply 26):
what are the A, B,C, and D checks exactly

In simple terms overhaul periods for aircraft. The A check is the smallest and occurs most frequently, the the B the next largest and occurs after so many A checks or a period of time, the C amounts to a half overhaul and can take a couple of week to do and the D a full overhaul. This is expensive and can take a month or two.

This is VERY much a generalisation. Exactly what is required and the timing depends on the requirements of the airlines national airworthiness authority, the manufactures requirements and the airlines maintenance system. It varies greatly from airline to airline, country to country and aircraft type to aircraft type.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: FlySSC
Posted 2010-03-02 22:27:15 and read 12576 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
Quoting dalca (Reply 7):
Is there a list somewhere or can we compile one here?

AF has put in storage quite a few of its B744 :

F-GEXB : Stored at XCR
F-GISA : Stored at CDG
F-GISB : Stored at ORY
F-GISE : Stored at ORY
F-GISF : Stored at CDG
F-GITC : Stored at CDG

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: faro
Posted 2010-03-03 03:22:38 and read 10303 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
Yes, but as history has shown, no aircraft at AMARC/AMARG is truly dead until it meets the guillotine.

What is the average storage life of civil aircraft at AMARC/AMARG? It would seem to me that the sooner you can scrap your aircraft, the sooner you can get the hard cash into your coffers (and avoid paying storage costs).

How likely is the chance of selling or leasing your 744 in the near to medium term if it is not a cargo bird? Not very high I would think...

Faro

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: 747classic
Posted 2010-03-03 07:25:17 and read 7698 times.

If the market is recovering, some passenger 744 aircraft may be converted to freighters. The 744combi's are most likely to be converted because of the relative low conversion costs. All the other passenger 744's, especially the older one's (89-90-91) will be scrapped, because there is no future need for them.

Important items for the scrap or conversion decission are :

- year of manufacture, hours and/or cycles count.
- time to next HMV.
- AD status
- remaining time (until overhaul) on major parts : engines, landing gears, APU etc.
- correct maintenance documents in place on all parts of the aircraft.(bogus parts installed !)
- preservation status, corrosion prevention program implemented.

744 aircraft, that are stored with no hours until the next HMV, engines with a few hours remaining and not complete maintenance documents have IMO NO change to come out off the desert.

I observed on the sideline a few maintenance investigation crews who did an in depth research into available 744 aircraft, stored in the desert, for conversion into 400BCF aircraft (a few years ago)
The outcome was not good : run down aircraft until the last flying hour, AD's not complied with, maintenance papers missing, etc.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: N328KF
Posted 2010-03-03 07:27:23 and read 7735 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 15):
(From BCA order site.)

I have placed the sales of all 747 variants into a chart. For the purposes of our discussion, I reduced all sub-variants (including military types) to the four major variants. As there have been no 747-8 deliveries, it was not included.

Boeing 747 Sales from 1969 to 2009 (Based upon BCA order site data)

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: lalib
Posted 2010-03-03 07:52:36 and read 7402 times.

[i]How come we haven't seen many B744s migrate to third world airlines?

I've seen DC-10s, L1011s, and even B762s migrate there, now its the 744's turn.
You'd think it would have a niche, providing links to the business centers of the world. LHR, CDG, DXB, not to mention cargo ought to be able to fill a 744 on a regular basis from the third world to the first world.[i]


Good question. Look at PIA they around 5 or 6 747-300's they could have bought these 400's in storage

or better yet buy the 400 and convert them into freighters.

And get more T7's for passengers a/c

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: manfredj
Posted 2010-03-03 08:21:50 and read 7030 times.

Quoting tharanga (Reply 11):
I hope Boeing has expected this, when surveying the market for new frames of 748F?



Boeing has made the right decision here with the -800. Eventually the 2/3/-400 freighters will get on in age and Boeing will have the MONOPOLY on VLA freighters. I think we're in for a big surprise when we find out exactly how much more efficient the -800 is than the -400.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: N328KF
Posted 2010-03-03 08:31:03 and read 6913 times.

By the way, what are the reasons for the major peaks in overall 747 deliveries in my chart? Number them 1 through 4. #1 is obviously for all of the stacked-up initial orders, and #3 is the 747-400 EIS. I suspect that #2 is due to deregulation in the US, which changed air traffic worldwide, but I don't have an explanation for #4.

Also, there's a small uptick in the mid-2000s that I suspect is due to carriers getting their last 747-400 orders in.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: readytotaxi
Posted 2010-03-03 10:28:27 and read 5686 times.

Quoting Macsog6 (Reply 1):
As long as thr aircraft is properly stored, it can be put back into service at a later time.

So, just how quickly are we talking about from dessert to terminal ramp? ,pls

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2010-03-03 11:25:09 and read 5548 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 34):
I suspect that #2 is due to deregulation in the US, which changed air traffic worldwide

Deregulation in the US had almost no impact outside the US. It only affected domestic traffic within the US. Anything involving travel between the US and other countries required the agreement of the other countries involved which was a slow process. Thirty years after US domestic deregulation, many international markets to/from the US are still heavily regulated.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-03-03 19:20:38 and read 5189 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 34):
By the way, what are the reasons for the major peaks in overall 747 deliveries in my chart? Number them 1 through 4. #1 is obviously for all of the stacked-up initial orders, and #3 is the 747-400 EIS. I suspect that #2 is due to deregulation in the US, which changed air traffic worldwide, but I don't have an explanation for #4.

Many of the peaks and valleys can be explained by the world economy. The first valley coincides with the mid-70's oil crisis, which rendered a lot of US-domestic 747 flying to be uneconomical.

Peak #4 can be most likely explained by the economy in the go-go 90's as well as it was a time when many airlines were replacing their 747-classics and DC-10's.

Also, keep in mind DL is committed to their 744 fleet (from NW) for the next 3-5+ years. They are going to be spending a few million per aircraft to entirely replace the interiors. This includes some of the first 744s off the line. Granted, they are fortunete that NW had maintained these aircraft very well and flown them exclusively on long-haul flights.

Topic: RE: Ten Percent Of 747-400 In Storage
Username: IFIXCF6
Posted 2010-03-06 09:51:40 and read 4793 times.

Quote:
So, just how quickly are we talking about from dessert to terminal ramp? ,pls

It really depends on many different things, i.e. the level of storage carried out as long term, short term, or carrier specific. In general, the longer an aircraft has been in storage, the longer it will take to resurrect. Customers (particularly Part 91's and the 121's that know the aircraft are going to not be very attractive on the market, due to AD's, HMV's, time/cycle limits, etc.) are very reluctant to pay for proper maintainence. So, at reactivation, we are tasked with many deferred maintenance items, in addition to the reactivation. Other A/C are placed into "flight ready" storage. They are easy to get going.

The hold ups are parts and authorization. Disregarding stuctural issues, engine overhaul issues, avionics "out of the blue" failures, and "customer requirements", we can return an A/C to flight in 1-4 days. The aircraft generally present us with some problems, but aircraft are honest, humans are not.

Mike


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