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Topic: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-05-13 11:12:07 and read 10618 times.

This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

How to read:
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route

Please take it easy on any typos, there was a lot to type...

AC
PHX-YYZ 1>2 OCT-NOV

AM
At this point I just include AM for humor since they will reverse this in a week or two.
DEN-MEX 0>1 NOV-
LAS-MEX 2/WK>1 SEP-

B6
BOS-SRQ 0>1 NOV-
BTV-MCO 0>5/WK NOV-
PWM-MCO 0>5/WK NOV-

CO
ANC-PDX 1>0 NOV-
EWR-GSP 2>3 OCT-
IAH-VPS 4>3 OCT-
PBI-TLH 2>0 JUN-AUG Filing mistake?

DL
ATL-GYE 3/WK>0 SEP-NOV
ATL-KIN 2/WK>0 SEP-NOV
ATL-MHT 1>2 SEP-
ATL-NAS 3>2 NOV-
ATL-OAK 0>1 JUL-
ATL-PLS 1>1/WK NOV
ATL-STX 1/WK>0 SEP-NOV
DTW-ABE 4>3 SEP-
DTW-BGR 3>2 SEP-
DTW-CHA 0>1 SEP-
DTW-FCO 5/WK>0 SEP-OCT
DTW-ICT 2>1 SEP-
DTW-JAN 2>1 SEP-
DTW-SMF 5/WK>0 AUG-
DTW-TUL 3>2 SEP-
DTW-YXU 4>3 SEP-
JFK-ANU 1/WK>0 SEP-NOV
JFK-BON 1/WK>0 DEC-
JFK-VLC 3/WK>0 OCT
LGA-NAS 3/WK>0 DEC-
MSP-SJU 0>1/WK DEC-
MSP-TYS 1>0 SEP-

LH
MUC-BOS 1>5/WK OCT-
MUC-CLT 1>5/WK OCT-
MUC-IAD 1>5/WK OCT-
MUC-LAX 1>5/WK OCT-
MUC-MIA 0>5/WK OCT-

NK
DTW-CUN 0>3/WK NOV-
FLL-SDQ 2>1 NOV-
FLL-TPA 2>3 NOV-

UA
DEN-BHM 2>1 AUG-
DEN-BOS 5>4 AUG-
DEN-DTW 2>3 AUG-
DEN-PSP 3>2 AUG-
DEN-RAP 7>8 AUG-
LAX-BWI 1>2 AUG-
LAX-MCO 2>1 AUG-
LAX-MSY 2>1 OCT-NOV
LAX-PHL 1>2 SEP-OCT
LAX-YVR 3>2 AUG-

US
CLT-HNL 1>0 AUG-SEP
CLT-PDX 0>1 SEP-NOV
CLT-SMF 0>4/WK SEP-NOV
DCA-RSW 1>0 SEP-NOV

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: SlcDeltaRUmd11
Posted 2010-05-13 12:27:28 and read 10137 times.

DEN-BOS 5>4 AUG-

I wonder if this is because of Southwest airlines launching nonstop DEN-BOS and DEN-BDL some competition from both sides of the Mass market.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-05-13 18:07:07 and read 9169 times.

Quoting SlcDeltaRUmd11 (Reply 1):
I wonder if this is because of Southwest airlines launching nonstop DEN-BOS and DEN-BDL some competition from both sides of the Mass market.

I'm sure that has an effect.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-ANU 1/WK>0 SEP-NOV
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-GYE 3/WK>0 SEP-NOV
ATL-KIN 2/WK>0 SEP-NOV
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-STX 1/WK>0 SEP-NOV

I was surprised DL did so many seasonal station closures.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: DeltAirlines
Posted 2010-05-13 18:12:19 and read 9121 times.

Quoting SlcDeltaRUmd11 (Reply 1):
DEN-BOS 5>4 AUG-

I wonder if this is because of Southwest airlines launching nonstop DEN-BOS and DEN-BDL some competition from both sides of the Mass market.

The 5th DEN-BOS on United was a summer-only flight. It's been running at 4x/day for much of the past year.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: greenair727
Posted 2010-05-13 18:23:06 and read 9067 times.

why this change just for two months?:

DL DTW-FCO 5/WK>0 SEP-OCT

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: burnsie28
Posted 2010-05-13 19:20:03 and read 8778 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 4):
why this change just for two months?:

It should say until March

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: steex
Posted 2010-05-13 19:33:00 and read 8691 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 4):
why this change just for two months?:

DL DTW-FCO 5/WK>0 SEP-OCT
Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 5):
It should say until March

I believe DL had originally put the flight in the schedules as ending in October for the season. Therefore, the only change in availability would be the flight ending in September instead of October per Enilria's standard convention. Perhaps DL was thinking of keeping the flight until October if advance bookings looked particularly strong, always knowing they had the option to instead end it in September and rebook people through their other gateways.

Enilria - thanks, as always, for these updates!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-05-14 05:06:25 and read 7497 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 4):
DL DTW-FCO 5/WK>0 SEP-OCT
Quoting steex (Reply 6):
per Enilria's standard convention.

Correct, that means that they are no longer selling it for September and October, so basically they shortened the season because it was already canceled for November and forward. It must not be as good as they had hoped. Airlines tend to be optimistic with future schedules and when bookings are disappointing or the fuel forecast is poor they start hacking things. They took a bunch of int'l ASMs out of Fall in this change. That makes me wonder if they are trying to match to investor relations guidance. Often an exec will say "we plan to cut Fall capacity x%" in an earnings call and then scheduling has to go and match the published schedule to that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: CRJ200FAGuy
Posted 2010-05-14 08:40:35 and read 6595 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MSP-TYS 1>0 SEP-

That surprises me. Pinnacle uses that flight to get planes in and out of maintenance. The MSP-TYS never is full, but the TYS-MSP is usually pretty full in the morning.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-05-14 13:45:47 and read 5797 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 7):
They took a bunch of int'l ASMs out of Fall in this change. That makes me wonder if they are trying to match to investor relations guidance. Often an exec will say "we plan to cut Fall capacity x%" in an earnings call and then scheduling has to go and match the published schedule to that.

Knowing DL's scheduling habits, it can be gone one week and return the next.....

Quoting CRJ200FAGuy (Reply 8):
That surprises me. Pinnacle uses that flight to get planes in and out of maintenance. The MSP-TYS never is full, but the TYS-MSP is usually pretty full in the morning.

There are so many ways to get aircraft now to TYS with 9E operating flights from DTW, MEM, and now some ATL that it is easier to get aircraft in there rather than fly really long, empty flights like MSP-TYS.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-05-14 22:22:25 and read 5432 times.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
Knowing DL's scheduling habits, it can be gone one week and return the next.....

True, but I bet those seasonal station closures stick. Once they've queued the bookings for reaccom it won't return.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: DeltaRules
Posted 2010-05-15 07:39:30 and read 5141 times.

Someone I talked to at CMH who works for DL said they've heard rumblings of a Delta expansion/additional flights to be announced sometime in June & that they were waiting for an official word...anybody hear anything? Extra frequencies? The return of SLC to go along with the previously announced resumption of flights to LAX?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: FutureUScapt
Posted 2010-05-15 08:54:23 and read 5021 times.

AA will also be ending STL-SEA after August.

No idea if it will return for the peak summer season next year, but I'd bet against it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: steex
Posted 2010-05-15 11:16:38 and read 4881 times.

Quoting FutureUScapt (Reply 12):
AA will also be ending STL-SEA after August.

No idea if it will return for the peak summer season next year, but I'd bet against it.

I believe you mean WN, they are ending STL-SEA and have said it will be seasonal. AA is still scheduled to run STL-SEA year-round.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: FutureUScapt
Posted 2010-05-15 14:59:34 and read 4687 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 13):
I believe you mean WN, they are ending STL-SEA and have said it will be seasonal. AA is still scheduled to run STL-SEA year-round.

Nope, I'm talking about AA  

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: steex
Posted 2010-05-15 15:05:12 and read 4656 times.

Quoting FutureUScapt (Reply 14):
Nope, I'm talking about AA


It appears you're right, I hadn't read anything about this. Searching for flights on AA's website, 23 AUG 2010 appears to be the last day for non-stop flights on the route. Searching earlier showed the non-stop continuing, so I guess that was just updated today. Interesting, I wonder if this means we could see AS come to STL to replace AA.

[Edited 2010-05-15 15:11:21]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: SANFan
Posted 2010-05-15 15:15:44 and read 4615 times.

Quoting FutureUScapt (Reply 14):
Nope, I'm talking about AA
Quoting steex (Reply 15):
Do you have a link to an announcement?

   I would also like to see some confirmation of AA's quitting the SEA-STL market as well.

It wouldn't surprise me that much except that they didn't pull out of that market when they pulled (the rest of) the STL-plug last year.

If this is true, then there's NO service SEA-STL as of this fall. Hmmmmm -- anyone got AS's phone number handy?!  

bb

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: steex
Posted 2010-05-15 15:19:43 and read 4596 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 16):
I would also like to see some confirmation of AA's quitting the SEA-STL market as well.

It appears I edited my post while you were making yours; as noted above, AA's SEA-STL disappears from the schedule after 23 AUG 2010. That will indeed leave SEA-STL with no service since WN's flights stop a week earlier.

AS would probably make good sense on the route given their lower cost structure and ability to effectively serve both AA and DL fliers.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: PHXtoDCAtoMSP
Posted 2010-05-15 16:18:14 and read 4521 times.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 11):
Someone I talked to at CMH who works for DL said they've heard rumblings of a Delta expansion/additional flights to be announced sometime in June & that they were waiting for an official word...anybody hear anything? Extra frequencies? The return of SLC to go along with the previously announced resumption of flights to LAX?

I've heard that CMH is an "S-Curve Market" for DL. Which basically means that Delta thinks that because of its new size post merger it should be getting more revenue combined than NW+DL before. Anyway, one aspect of the s-curve theory is the number of flights that you have scheduled. So it makes sense that there could be additional frequencies.

But CMH has already received an LAX flight, 2 additional frequencies to MSP, announced first class regional jets to LGA, and I'm sure more that I am not aware of. So there could be more.....but I doubt a whole lot more.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: FL787
Posted 2010-05-15 16:32:13 and read 4468 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 16):
If this is true, then there's NO service SEA-STL as of this fall. Hmmmmm -- anyone got AS's phone number handy?!

AS is accepting gifts from AA and DL. AA offered the nerd bird route, DL offered SEA-OGG and PDX-HNL, and now AA is offering SEA-STL. Who will ask AS their hand in marriage? Just kidding.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: Airport
Posted 2010-05-15 16:34:55 and read 4462 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 16):

If this is true, then there's NO service SEA-STL as of this fall. Hmmmmm -- anyone got AS's phone number handy?!

I would almost put it to a certainty that if WN is turning SEA-STL seasonal, and AA is quitting SEA-STL as well, then AS will start SEA-STL.  

Cheers!
Anthony/Airport

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2010-05-15 18:23:47 and read 4360 times.

Quoting PHXtoDCAtoMSP (Reply 18):
I've heard that CMH is an "S-Curve Market" for DL.

That would probably go for Delta's other "sweet spot" markets (BDL, CHM, RDU, MSY, JAX, etc).. those markets where Delta keeps an eye on to make sure they are strong. Perhaps?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 5/13/2010: AC/AM/B6/CO/DL/LH/NK/UA/US
Username: mtnwest1979
Posted 2010-05-15 20:09:20 and read 4222 times.

Perhaps WN will re-evaluate the seasonality of SEA-STL and will hence make it year-round.


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