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Topic: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: aviationbuff
Posted 2010-05-18 06:18:35 and read 27643 times.

Airbus poised to start building new higher weight A380 variant

As reported by Flight ......

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ilding-new-higher-weight-a380.html

Quote:
Airbus is about to begin production of an upgraded A380-800 with increased operating weights that will offer more range and payload capability when it enters service with launch customer British Airways in 2013.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: DLPMMM
Posted 2010-05-18 06:31:17 and read 27528 times.

From my understanding, all the new units built from BA deliveries on will have the modifications regardless of customer, but those who don't order the option for the higher weights will be derated on paper, and perhaps on FBW software.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: NAV20
Posted 2010-05-18 06:41:37 and read 27368 times.

Thanks, DLPMMM, most interesting.

Don't know about you, but I simply cannot understand this bit:-

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 1):
those who don't order the option for the higher weights will be derated on paper, and perhaps on FBW software.

Sounds as if Airbus are telling their customers either to accept, and pay more for, the bigger versions, or take a financial penalty if they stick to their original orders?

Seems to be a 'funny way to run a railway'?

One suspects, straight away, that (apart from the increasing dominance of the 777 on longhaul routes) the 748 is turning out to be uncomfortably close to the A380 in terms of passenger/miles?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Flying-Tiger
Posted 2010-05-18 06:48:19 and read 27243 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
Sounds as if Airbus are telling their customers either to accept, and pay more for, the bigger versions, or take a financial penalty if they stick to their original orders?

How do you get to the conclusion that customers have to pay more for this modification? There is absolutely no hint in the Flight article in regards to this matter.

Any idea if the "range bonus" can be translated into a payload bonus, i.e."just" 15,170 km range but a 1,x tons higher payload?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: AustrianZRH
Posted 2010-05-18 06:53:30 and read 27107 times.

What would be interesting to me is how they did it. Flightglobal says

Quote:

To achieve the operating weight increases the airframe structure has been strengthened
...
According to Williams the increases are made possible through reductions in flight loads, which are partly achieved by the optimisation of the fly-by-wire control laws.

So the first sentence quoted tells me that the structure has been changed. The question now is how much MEW was added. Is that just MTOW - MZFW? Don't believe it's that easy.

In the second sentence I would read that it's just a load reduction without any MEW add-on...

Could someone more knowledgeable than me shed some light please? Thanks!

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: NAV20
Posted 2010-05-18 06:56:16 and read 27057 times.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 3):
How do you get to the conclusion that customers have to pay more for this modification?

Depends on how you interpret this information from DLPMMM, Flying-Tiger.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 1):
but those who don't order the option for the higher weights will be derated on paper, and perhaps on FBW software.

Sounds to me as if Airbus are planning a bigger version and twisting the customers' arms to buy the thing.......

But, of course, as always, either or both of us could be wrong. The A380 is the aviation equivalent of a Shakespeare tragedy - none of us will know the final outcome until the very last scene of the final act....

[Edited 2010-05-18 06:57:36]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: TravelAVNut
Posted 2010-05-18 06:58:11 and read 27004 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):

Sounds as if Airbus are telling their customers either to accept, and pay more for, the bigger versions, or take a financial penalty if they stick to their original orders?

Ow no, please...How do you turn a positive news item about the A380 into an Airbus-bashing comment?!

Sounds to me like Airbus will put the modification in all airframes (as that is cheaper to do than only in select frames), when a customer selects the lower weight version it will be derated not only in performance but also price. But that´s my opinion, so please correct me if i´m wrong (but than with facts instead of biased opinions).

From the article:
"To achieve the operating weight increases the airframe structure has been strengthened, which will become standard on aircraft delivered from 2013, although the higher operating weights will be offered as an option. According to Williams the increases are made possible through reductions in flight loads, which are partly achieved by the optimisation of the fly-by-wire control laws."

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
One suspects, straight away, that (apart from the increasing dominance of the 777 on longhaul routes) the 748 is turning out to be uncomfortably close to the A380 in terms of passenger/miles?

And how do you get to that "conclusion"?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: DLPMMM
Posted 2010-05-18 07:04:35 and read 26900 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Sounds to me as if Airbus are planning a bigger version and twisting the customers' arms to buy the thing.......

The more I read the quotes, the more it sounds like predominantly a FBW software modification.

Airbus could make the higher load capability a performance enhancement option with new software and charge for it, seeing how the plane is already exceeding the contractual minimums on performance.

This could help the program achieve profitability, as EADS already disclosed that they are losing money on each plane now, and will continue to lose money on each A380 for the next few years.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: TravelAVNut
Posted 2010-05-18 07:18:17 and read 26691 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
The more I read the quotes, the more it sounds like predominantly a FBW software modification.

Indeed, and a small structural improvent.




Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
This could help the program achieve profitability, as EADS already disclosed that they are losing money on each plane now, and will continue to lose money on each A380 for the next few years.

I´ve read that a few times here on A.net, also I heard a few counter claims. Do you have a solid source for this? Google is not helping me because it only directs me to A vs. B threads on airliners.net 

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 07:44:02 and read 26283 times.

The A380-800 successfully lifted off during her test program at a TOW of 596.5 tons and then landed with a weight of 590t, so the structure is good enough to do that at least once.  

The A380 RTO was 575t with 16 main-wheel braking units, so I would expect this is what drove the decision to put the increase at 573t in the "WV003" model.

It makes perfect sense that all A380s after the initial block-point would be built to the 573t spec just because it makes things easier from a manufacturing and supplier standpoint. So by default, an airline is going to receive an A380 capable of a 573t take-off, but if they don't need or desire that, they can have the airframe paper de-rated to save on acquisition, navigation and airport fees. This has been SOP like forever on every other commercial family, so "what's all the hubub, bub?".  

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: DLPMMM
Posted 2010-05-18 07:52:03 and read 26185 times.

From WSJ on May 14:


"Airbus is struggling to overcome issues that are hampering the industrial ramp-up of the A380, and have caused costly delivery delays and been a financial drain on the company in recent years.

Speaking to analysts in a conference call, Chief Executive Officer Hans Peter Ring said that provided these issues are eventually resolved and the program gets back on track, "certainly there is some hope that by the end of the planning horizon we will be approaching break even."

He explained that Airbus's normal planning horizon is over five years."

There is no doubt that he means break even on an annual production basis.

If Airbus can make a better product for all it's A380 customers, increase revenue voluntarily from some of the customers and thereby reach profitability for the A380 line sooner, then it sounds like a good idea to me,

[Edited 2010-05-18 08:07:19]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: fcogafa
Posted 2010-05-18 08:02:12 and read 25983 times.

Quote of the week from Flight International this week...

'They're making money with it, Tom, unfortunately we aren't'

Airbus chief salesman John Leahy on the returns being made by A380 customers in a superjumbo-sized dig at his boss, Tom Enders, during last weeks media briefing in Broughton.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Aesma
Posted 2010-05-18 08:11:17 and read 25817 times.

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 4):
So the first sentence quoted tells me that the structure has been changed. The question now is how much MEW was added. Is that just MTOW - MZFW? Don't believe it's that easy.

That's what I would like to know, too. But it's possible that the structure change is without penalty, for example you add a tougher bit, in a lighter material.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: babybus
Posted 2010-05-18 08:11:54 and read 25815 times.

I don't care if they are making money on each A380 frame.

It has set a new standard in long haul travel and raised the bar on passenger comfort. Carrying more people using less fuel is great for the environment too. All long haul airlines should have a few.

Flying on two engines on long haul really doesn't do it for me. It strips the excitement out. I can take a two engine flight to Scotland.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 08:12:58 and read 25796 times.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 19):
That's what I would like to know, too. But it's possible that the structure change is without penalty, for example you add a tougher bit, in a lighter material.

Airbus has been working hard to remove unnecessary weight, so it's possible if they're pulling 2-3 tons out, they could add 2-3 tons of strengthening back in and the net effect on MEW would be "zero".

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: scouseflyer
Posted 2010-05-18 08:13:28 and read 25789 times.

What's not entirely clear is whether this variant includes the reductions in weight that have been talked about on here or if that is for a version C that will come along in another couple of years?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 09:33:38 and read 25465 times.

Apologies for returning to the original thread topic, and not the new one, but ahe article mentioned you could fly 100nm farther at MTOW if you put the four extra tons into fuel, or you could load another 1.5t of payload at MZFW, but I would imagine that would also allow you to add 2.5t of fuel, as well, correct?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: tom355uk
Posted 2010-05-18 09:37:18 and read 25453 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
One suspects, straight away, that (apart from the increasing dominance of the 777 on longhaul routes) the 748 is turning out to be uncomfortably close to the A380 in terms of passenger/miles?

I don't think so. Let's face it, if the 748 was 'uncomfortably close' to the A380 in terms of passenger miles, then surely it would have far more orders from pax airlines than the 25 it has accrued. Secondly, I think you will find the A330 family has a pretty good share of the longhaul market with the 777.

By the way , i'm not A or B leaning, I just wish that this childish bickering would stop!

Boeing = Great airplane manufacturer.
Airbus = Great airplane manufacturer.

Now, can't we all just go to the pub for a beer???  

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: DLPMMM
Posted 2010-05-18 09:38:05 and read 25344 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
Apologies for returning to the original thread topic, and not the new one, but ahe article mentioned you could fly 100nm farther at MTOW if you put the four extra tons into fuel, or you could load another 1.5t of payload at MZFW, but I would imagine that would also allow you to add 2.5t of fuel, as well, correct?

I would imagine that the A380 would be normally fuel volume limited , not fuel weight limited.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Pygmalion
Posted 2010-05-18 09:38:50 and read 25341 times.

Not neccesarily... could be fuel volume limited... i.e. no room to add 2.5T more.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: seabosdca
Posted 2010-05-18 09:43:57 and read 25305 times.

Good for Airbus. As much of a disaster as the business side of the A380 program has been to date, they have produced a fantastic airplane that is much more mature than any other brand-new type I can think of.

My question is why BA in particular would care about increased MTOW? They do not even have any routes that would stretch the legs of a 569 t A388. Maybe they just happen to have the delivery slots corresponding to the block change.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-18 09:44:17 and read 25239 times.

It'll definitely be weight limited at MZFW. So yeah you should be able to add the 2.5t of fuel.

[Edited 2010-05-18 09:45:28]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2010-05-18 09:49:17 and read 25204 times.

When I read the thread title, I was excited that Airbus was launching the A380R. I was disappointed to discover this was news about a less than 1% MTOW increase? In 3 years time? Why is this news exactly? Airframes get marginal MTOW increases all the time...

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Revelation
Posted 2010-05-18 09:52:35 and read 25161 times.

Quoting TravelAVNut (Reply 6):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
One suspects, straight away, that (apart from the increasing dominance of the 777 on longhaul routes) the 748 is turning out to be uncomfortably close to the A380 in terms of passenger/miles?

And how do you get to that "conclusion"?

Because the article says:

Quote:

Airbus executives previously disclosed that the weight and performance gain came from a requirement for a couple of customers during sales campaigns against the Boeing 747-8I.


So, besides winning orders from LH and KE, 747-8i is making Airbus commit more money and more human resources to the A380 program.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 09:54:34 and read 25113 times.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 39):
My question is why BA in particular would care about increased MTOW? They do not even have any routes that would stretch the legs of a 569 t A388. Maybe they just happen to have the delivery slots corresponding to the block change.

Especially in the low-density configurations they currently use on their existing fleet, which I think would result in a lower OEW.

Then again, perhaps BA is planning to run a much higher-density configuration, perhaps north of 500 seats like AF and LH are, so that extra MZFW and MTOW might come in handy for them...

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 10:00:40 and read 25086 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
So, besides winning orders from LH and KE, 747-8i is making Airbus commit more money and more human resources to the A380 program.

But if it is winning them sales campaigns (BA, and now perhaps NH), it's worth the effort, isn't it?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Revelation
Posted 2010-05-18 10:37:23 and read 24256 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
But if it is winning them sales campaigns (BA, and now perhaps NH), it's worth the effort, isn't it?

Yes, it's definitely worth it. Winning BA was a huge plus for Airbus and a huge minus for Boeing.

Regardless, it's still kind of interesting at least to me that such a new aircraft being made in relatively small numbers needs even more resources to be dedicated to improving it so quickly after EIS.

For those in the "break even doesn't matter" camp, and I am one of them, what does matter is ongoing cash flow, which currently is negative (proven out by the A380 write offs on last year's results, since they could no longer maintain the position that the costs would be recovered by cash flow) and won't be helped if major campaigns need significant engineering support to win. And please don't tell me these changes (strengthening the airframe, re-optimizing the FBW software, 1.5° increase in wing twist) are pocket change, because the pockets are empty. Yes, they will benefit future programs, but still, will demand cash and human resources to do, and both are in short supply.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zeke
Posted 2010-05-18 10:52:04 and read 23755 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
Sounds as if Airbus are telling their customers either to accept, and pay more for, the bigger versions, or take a financial penalty if they stick to their original orders?

This is pretty standard how Airbus does things, new improved aircraft are certified as a new WV (Weight Variant). All aircraft then produced will have all the mods installed for this higher weight variant, as well as all the other production mods that come with that production snapshot.

It does not mean that any sort of engine derate is required to operate at a lower MTOW, the operator can negotiate this with the local CAA (CASA in your case). For example QF have over the years operated most of their types at various time at reduced MTOWs without any need to change the FADEC, it is a paperwork exercise to reduce enroute charges.

All you need to do is to look at the A330, all A330s being built today are A330Es, customers are not paying more for the new base airframe, that is just the way they come, and all A330 produced since around 2002 are capable of the new 238t MTOW.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 11:01:39 and read 23500 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 46):
Regardless, it's still kind of interesting at least to me that such a new aircraft being made in relatively small numbers needs even more resources to be dedicated to improving it so quickly after EIS.

If that is what it takes, that is what it takes, I guess. Boeing launched the 767-400ERX not soon after the 767-400ER to try and keep up with the A330-200 and the 777-300ER is about five years old, and yet Boeing is considering updates to her if necessary to stay competitive with the A350-1000.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: frmrCapCadet
Posted 2010-05-18 11:05:23 and read 23376 times.

The wing twist seems obviously a normal tweaking change. So what part of the wing will 'twist', how do they make it twist, and why is it a benefit?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Eagleboy
Posted 2010-05-18 11:07:14 and read 23342 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
The A380 is the aviation equivalent of a Shakespeare tragedy - none of us will know the final outcome until the very last scene of the final act....

A poetic comment there my friends..........

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-18 11:48:47 and read 22250 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 46):
Regardless, it's still kind of interesting at least to me that such a new aircraft being made in relatively small numbers needs even more resources to be dedicated to improving it so quickly after EIS


I think you're reading a little too much into this. A 4t MTOW increase 5 years after EIS could almost be farted out.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zvezda
Posted 2010-05-18 12:23:25 and read 21456 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
last I heard, Airbus had to sell around 600 A380s to make a profit?

It depends a lot on when they are sold, when they are delivered, and the sales price. That said, 600 for break-even is plausible.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
And they can't apparently produce the few they have on on order at anything like the required rate.

We all know that the production ramp up has been a problem, largely due to nationalistic divisions of labour. However, it looks like Airbus are set to deliver 18 this year, which is great progress from 10 last year. I'm confident that starting next year Airbus will be able to deliver the 24 to 36 per year appropriate to the size of the backlog and rate of new orders.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
Bear in mind that (even at the low interest rates offered by the EU) their debt on the A380 is growing exponentially. By 2018 - when it HAS to be repaid under EEC rules - it will amount to about E17M.

I don't believe the debt on on the launch aid could accrue to even E7M -- let alone E17M -- by 2018 even if not a single additional order comes in. How on earth did you calculate E17M?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 39):
Good for Airbus. As much of a disaster as the business side of the A380 program has been to date, they have produced a fantastic airplane that is much more mature than any other brand-new type I can think of.

  

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2010-05-18 12:29:16 and read 21257 times.

Quoting zvezda (Reply 54):
I don't believe the debt on on the launch aid could accrue to even E7M -- let alone E17M -- by 2018 even if not a single additional order comes in. How on earth did you calculate E17M?

Y'all probably mean B's, not M's. M's are in the noise.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 12:32:13 and read 21159 times.

I believe RLI interest is based on EU Central Bank Rates, but I am not sure if it is fixed or variable nor if it is calculated on simple or compound bases. But since we know what the RLI amount was and can determine the CBR at the time it was granted, we should be able to calculate at least a (relative) maximum rate using the CBR of the time as a fixed amount, compounded over 17 years.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zvezda
Posted 2010-05-18 12:37:27 and read 21078 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 56):
Y'all probably mean B's, not M's.

Yes, of course, billions. There is no way that Airbus could end up owing anything like 17 billion euro on the WhaleJet programme at the end of the period for repaying launch aid. 1.7 billion euro is plausible.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 12:44:00 and read 20861 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 55):
But the ER and ERX were both derivatives, whereas A380 was all new, and had an extra two years to make improvements while the wiring problem was straightened out. I'm glad Airbus is making the improvements but it can't be helping the cash flow of the troubled program.

Well they did make improvements during the wiring delays and the airframe was designed from the outset to support MTOWs of at least 590t for the A380-800F as well as weights in-between that TOW and the 569t TOW of the WV002 spec. Airbus knows from testing the entire airframe and her systems are good for the new MTOW, MZFW and MLW so I can't see Airbus having spent much money to make it happen. Heck, it could be mostly just paperwork.

The A330-200 recently received her 19th Weight Variant (WV058 offering a 238t MTOW) so even on non-derivatives, this is not something unique, at least for Airbus.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: airproxx
Posted 2010-05-18 12:44:12 and read 20838 times.

Quoting aviationbuff (Thread starter):
Airbus is about to begin production of an upgraded A380-800 with increased operating weights that will offer more range and payload capability when it enters service with launch customer British Airways in 2013.

2t won on the MLW...?? What did they do? They removed a pair of wheels??

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-18 12:46:38 and read 20834 times.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 60):
2t won on the MLW...?? What did they do? They removed a pair of wheels??

One does not remove wheels to support higher weights on the undercarriage.  

As I noted, an A380-800 successfully touched down at a 590t landing weight and the undercarriage is said to be able to support upwards of 625t.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Revelation
Posted 2010-05-18 12:57:09 and read 20547 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 59):
Airbus knows from testing the entire airframe and her systems are good for the new MTOW, MZFW and MLW so I can't see Airbus having spent much money to make it happen. Heck, it could be mostly just paperwork.

The article claimed the changes included strengthening the airframe, re-optimizing the FBW software, and a 1.5° increase in wing twist. Based on this I don't think it was just declaring the same structures were strong enough for the load, some had to be changed for additional strength. Tweaking the software and changing the wing jigs obviously weren't paperwork changes.

Again, I'm in favor of it being done, but it can't be helping the bottom line, and again, it's interesting that Airbus had to do it to win the BA business.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2010-05-18 13:01:58 and read 20470 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
As I noted, an A380-800 successfully touched down at a 590t landing weight and the undercarriage is said to be able to support upwards of 625t.

reading between the lines, I am thinking that they spent alot of time looking at the numbers and talking to customers. Then they found instead of trying to shave wieght, it would be better to bump the MTOW instead since it was a minimal increase on the OEW to achieve it. This gives customers more revenue potential at a slight increase in trip costs compared to what would have been achieved without the MTOW boost.

At first I was worried this was another A346HGW with a huge OEW penalty (50% of MTOW gain), and instead its rather small (12.5%) for the A380. Only "downside" is the 4 ton boost only has 1.5 ton increased payload, but thats still a good pile of extra money to be made every trip.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-18 13:37:54 and read 19613 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 62):
Again, I'm in favor of it being done, but it can't be helping the bottom line, and again, it's interesting that Airbus had to do it to win the BA business.

I'm literally staggered as to how much you have managed to read into this comment...

Airbus executives previously disclosed that the weight and performance gain came from a requirement for a couple of customers during sales campaigns against the Boeing 747-8I.

1)Says nothing about BA there.

2)It also says it was from requirements. That does not mean they would have automatically lost the order if they were not willing to do it.

3)It doesn't even explicitly say that it was a reaction to the 748I, merely that the sales campaign was against the 748I.

The scenario could have just as easily been...

Airline) Can you increase the payload/range within this time-frame

Airbus) Yes, relatively easily and for minimal expense

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: UALWN
Posted 2010-05-18 13:46:56 and read 19406 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 55):
In any case, the 747-8 program was launched mostly to retain Boeing's domination of freighter sales.The pax orders (32 so far) are welcome additions

Yet another A-net myth that refuses to die a quiet death... So you have been arguing that the 747-8i forced Airbus into making these "huge" changes to the 380 we are discussing in this thread, and now you dismiss the effort that went into the 747-8i as something trivial that brought in 32 "welcome additional" orders? Please.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Revelation
Posted 2010-05-18 13:58:03 and read 19065 times.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 64):
I'm literally staggered as to how much you have managed to read into this comment...

Seems you need more balance then, IMHO.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 64):
1)Says nothing about BA there.

But the article says the launch customer for the changes are BA.

And of course BA was a key campaign for both Airbus and Boeing, probably the key one in the VLA pax segment where both had a chance of winning.

What campaign did you presume they were talking about?

Would they step up to the plate to win VN's order?

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 64):
2)It also says it was from requirements. That does not mean they would have automatically lost the order if they were not willing to do it.

Of course, but if you miss requirements you are more likely to lose orders.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 64):
3)It doesn't even explicitly say that it was a reaction to the 748I, merely that the sales campaign was against the 748I.

And what do you react to when you are in a sales campaign against the 747-8i?

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 64):

The scenario could have just as easily been...

Airline) Can you increase the payload/range within this time-frame

Airbus) Yes, relatively easily and for minimal expense

Sure if you ignore all context being provided by the article.

And of course one can wonder why the reporter would provide such context if it was as simple as you imply.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: AirNZ
Posted 2010-05-18 14:08:48 and read 18762 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
One suspects, straight away, that (apart from the increasing dominance of the 777 on longhaul routes) the 748 is turning out to be uncomfortably close to the A380 in terms of passenger/miles?

Can you perhaps explain (with a factual basis and not pure bias opinion) how one 'suspects' anything of the sort?

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Depends on how you interpret this information from DLPMMM, Flying-Tiger.

In other words, how one chooses to interpret information to suit one's own long standing agenda.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
But, last I heard, Airbus had to sell around 600 A380s to make a profit?

Then your 'latest' information isn't very accurate, although of course it sounds better by not sticking to facts.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 62):
it's interesting that Airbus had to do it to win the BA business.

Can you explain to me where it states, or even implies, anything about suiting BA. It might just be me, but I certainly don't see any mention of it and thus am curious where you do? Is it simply that hard to accept that the 'competitor' does not suit BA's requirements that stories have to be concocted to cover it?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: cosmofly
Posted 2010-05-18 14:30:15 and read 18247 times.

What remains true is that the 748i gave A380 pressure to improve and now A380, with its real life numbers, is giving 748i tremendous pressure. Now it is Boeing engineers' turn to provide surprises. I can't wait to see the 748i's final spec after it flies.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: A342
Posted 2010-05-18 14:37:05 and read 18124 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
Because the article says:

Quote:

Airbus executives previously disclosed that the weight and performance gain came from a requirement for a couple of customers during sales campaigns against the Boeing 747-8I.
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 69):
What remains true is that the 748i gave A380 pressure to improve

It was the originally proposed short-body version of the 748i which pressured the A380 in terms of range (notably, EK was very vocal about this). But after Boeing went for the long stretch, that pressure went away, or at least a significant part of it.

So the airlines that wanted the original 748i might now go for the A380, or simply opt for the higher MTOW. Good for Airbus.


Just my two cents.

A342

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-18 15:40:32 and read 16906 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 67):
Sure if you ignore all context being provided by the article.

Context is one thing but you seem to be wildly speculating and drawing extravagant conclusions based on at best, tentative evidence.

The upgrades were probably very cheap and may well have been in part for EK to meet their DXB-LAX requirements.

Frankly I can't remeber the last aircraft that didn't get a early subtle weight increase (Certainly the 77L/W, A340NG did) and the notion that this is ruining the A380's bottom line and taking up valuable resources is ridiculous.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: airproxx
Posted 2010-05-18 18:23:33 and read 14794 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
Quoting airproxx (Reply 60):
2t won on the MLW...?? What did they do? They removed a pair of wheels??

One does not remove wheels to support higher weights on the undercarriage.

You got me wrong, I meant they removed wheels to cut some weight... after all, 22 wheels, who will see if the planes misses 2 or not??   
Ok it was a bad joke, sorry for this one..

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Centre
Posted 2010-05-18 18:28:19 and read 14704 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
But, last I heard, Airbus had to sell around
600 A380s to make a profit

And this must be your source of information

Quoting zvezda (Reply 54):
600 for break-even is plausible.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zeke
Posted 2010-05-18 20:41:08 and read 13257 times.

[quote=airproxx,reply=60]2t won on the MLW...?? What did they do? They removed a pair of wheels??[/quote

It has been well known for a long time that from MSN56 the fuselage will see some good weight savings by incorporating the GLARE panels they designed for the A380F, indications I had these aircraft were to start to enter service around 2012.

The A380 has been flying for over 5 years, I would also expect the engine manufacturers to have improved their offering based upon in service data.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: trent1000
Posted 2010-05-18 23:35:22 and read 11407 times.

According to another aviation website with info about the A380 explaining the use of the three full length decks: "Although the lower deck will be reserved primarily for cargo, it could be outfitted for special passenger uses such as sleeper cabins, business centers or even child care service." Considering that LH made toilets available on the cargo level in some larger aircraft, would any airlines consider using lower deck space for any of the functions mentioned here?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: flipdewaf
Posted 2010-05-19 01:29:10 and read 9702 times.

I have heard but it was only through a conversation sonicannot give a link, that even though the A380 has been a huge investment that because of the way it was designed it doesn't actually cost that much to build/manufacture each frame and that after the overheads non rewired A380s don't cost much more than a 77W to make (and I don't mean per seat).

Fred

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: parapente
Posted 2010-05-19 02:21:32 and read 9041 times.

The A380 is a 40+ year project.No one can possibly know the whole future.What we are seeing is a good aircraft getting better.This will continue over the years.The crunch will come as we emerge from this Global recession (5 yrs?). What will pax demand/numbers rise to?What will be the price of oil? No one knows - but" higher" would be a fair guess I think for both.If so she has a decent future ahead of her.

The only cloud on the distant horizon would be Y3 I guess in 10 - 15 years time.This could be the aircraft that shortens the 40 year plan and thus removing the most profitable part of the product life cycle.But it is - I believe,too far into the future to make any educated comments/predictions.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: francoflier
Posted 2010-05-19 02:26:13 and read 8972 times.

That sounds like a really good deal for airlines who purchased the 'original' A380 and will be getting the 'downgraded upgraded' frames. They get an option to improve their aircrafts' performance later on if they wish to do so, at a minimal cost (mostly software upgrades and regulatory paperwork I presume).

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 82):
would any airlines consider using lower deck space for any of the functions mentioned here?

I doubt any airline would be ready to sacrifice precious cargo space for dubious luxury amenities, unless said amenities could provide better yield than cargo, but I don't think airlines are willing to invest in superextraluxurious amenities onboard these days, not after what happened during the crisis when the premuim traffic dwindled.

That said, airlines that don't rely on cargo that much, such as charter companies or those flying to tourist destinations, might be interested in setting up the loos downstairs to cram even more (  Wow! ) seats upstairs, a la Lufty. I wonder if Air Austral is considering this...

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: PM
Posted 2010-05-19 02:26:30 and read 8995 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 55):
Most Airbus Affectionados won't even admit that the 747-8i is competition to the A380

To be fair, many Boeing aficionados [please note the spelling] deny that the 747-8i is intended to compete with the A380.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 81):
I think I have been told that only having three, would also cut down on diversions due to engine issues.

Hell, take off all four and you'll never have an engine-related delay!  

Meanwhile, to the topic, Batman!

So, Airbus announce that a higher weight version will be built.

This immediately means that...

1. The current A380 doesn't work.  
2. The 748i is a potent threat.  
3. The A380 will never break even.   
4. EADS will go bankrupt.   
5. Any thread on the A380 will attract the ghouls out from under their rocks.   

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: scouseflyer
Posted 2010-05-19 02:43:32 and read 8747 times.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 89):
I doubt any airline would be ready to sacrifice precious cargo space for dubious luxury amenities, unless said amenities could provide better yield than cargo, but I don't think airlines are willing to invest in superextraluxurious amenities onboard these days, not after what happened during the crisis when the premuim traffic dwindled.

The only use I can think of for the "third deck" on an A380 is it is rumoured that the VVIP frame (MSN002) will be equipped with some living space on the lower deck along with a cargo bay and section that will take cars(!).

I'd imagine that Air Austral will be able to get the max 850 passengers that the bird is certified for in two decks so won't need the 3rd.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: PW100
Posted 2010-05-19 02:47:12 and read 8670 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 32):
They will not ship enough units in the next 5 years to recoup all the A380 investment. Airbus themselves had the break even at some 400+ units when they began the program, before the unforseen problems.

I believe the general concencus was that the break even number at program launch was around 250 frames?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: sebolino
Posted 2010-05-19 02:47:22 and read 8672 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 79):
Trouble is, we don't know the total amount advanced
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
Bear in mind that (even at the low interest rates offered by the EU) their debt on the A380 is growing exponentially. By 2018 - when it HAS to be repaid under EEC rules - it will amount to about E17M

??

Can you clarify ? Where do you get your numbers from ?
AFAIK, Airbus received 3.3 billions Euros, not E17M whatever it means.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: PM
Posted 2010-05-19 02:53:21 and read 8583 times.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 91):
The only use I can think of for the "third deck" on an A380 is it is rumoured that the VVIP frame (MSN002) will be equipped with some living space on the lower deck

One has to put the servants somewhere!

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Part147
Posted 2010-05-19 03:00:08 and read 8478 times.

Quoting PM (Reply 90):
So, Airbus announce that a higher weight version will be built.

This immediately means that...

1. The current A380 doesn't work.
2. The 748i is a potent threat.
3. The A380 will never break even.
4. EADS will go bankrupt.
5. Any thread on the A380 will attract the ghouls out from under their rocks.

Nicely summarised... you forgot one other element though...

6. Posters with a severe case of Confirmation Bias will happily quote one another as a source during their rantings and ravings - (these confirmation bias posters - 'CbPs' for short - are the A.Net version of stormy clouds!)   

[Edited 2010-05-19 03:03:33]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-05-19 03:24:45 and read 8086 times.

If I remember well I read about this MTOW increase on a.net about once a week since three or four years, so it is a very surprising one for all of us - just now there are numbers behind it, or at least flightglobal shows a table with numbers.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Kappel
Posted 2010-05-19 04:34:31 and read 7099 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 92):
I believe the general concencus was that the break even number at program launch was around 250 frames?

That is indeed correct. The 400 number is nowhere near the original target. That was only mentioned after the delays.

Quoting zvezda (Reply 96):
Regardless of the intentions of Airbus or Boeing, airlines have been bidding the two VLAs against each other for orders. If that's not competition, nothing is.

Indeed. They are pitted against each other. Most airlines (that had the choice) seem to have chosen between them, not both, unlike LH of course. You can probably even throw the 77W and a3510 on that list as well for some airlines. These are all big airliners that are competing with each other.

[Edited 2010-05-19 04:35:42]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: spantax
Posted 2010-05-19 05:20:06 and read 6407 times.

This means that in some years time A380-1000 will become the biggest (MTOW, or even in size excluding airships) aircraft ever !!! , or even before if the only AN-225 (600 t MTOW) stops flying for whatever reason. No doubt A380 will break even and will be (somehow, it is already) a milestone for Europe, something we should be proud of.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zvezda
Posted 2010-05-19 05:21:17 and read 6399 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Please tell me how the entire program could possibly break even in 5 years, given the investment, cost over-runs, and the production schedule. You can't because it is impossible with the sunk costs and even the most optimistic production forecasts.

Your tortured interpretation of Hans Peter Ring's statement is ludacris. It is insistance on such untenable positions through tortured logic and inane parsing of verbage that makes intelligent and dispassionate discussions of aviation programs so difficult on A.net.

Hans Peter Ring doesn't say that there could be break-even in five years. He didn't even say that there could be HOPE of break-even in five years. All he writes is that there MAYBE could be some HOPE of APPROACHING (moving in the direction of) break-even in five years. The only reasonable interpretation is that there MAYBE some HOPE that in five years Airbus will stop losing money on each frame (moving away from break-even) and start making a marginal profit on each frame (APPROACHING or moving toward break-even).

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-19 05:29:11 and read 6276 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Then you both clearly have no clue as to the subject matter.

Please tell me how the entire program could possibly break even in 5 years, given the investment, cost over-runs, and the production schedule. You can't because it is impossible with the sunk costs and even the most optimistic production forecasts.

Your tortured interpretation of Hans Peter Ring's statement is ludacris. It is insistance on such untenable positions through tortured logic and inane parsing of verbage that makes intelligent and dispassionate discussions of aviation programs so difficult on A.net.

The article clearly states breaking even on the A380 program in the first line.

I'm not sure why this is still being debated - It's beyond clear in the context of the article that he means the program and not on each frame.

[Edited 2010-05-19 05:29:49]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: zeke
Posted 2010-05-19 05:29:31 and read 6286 times.

Is anyone interested in discussing "Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant" ?

                       

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 99):
If I remember well I read about this MTOW increase on a.net about once a week since three or four years, so it is a very surprising one for all of us - just now there are numbers behind it, or at least flightglobal shows a table with numbers.

If they go ahead with this, this will be the 4th WV, the current WV certifiied are

000 - MTOW 560 t ** MLW 386 t ** MZFW 361 t
001 - MTOW 510 t ** MLW 394 t ** MZFW 372 t
002 - MTOW 569 t ** MLW 391 t ** MZFW 366 t
003 - MTOW 510 t ** MLW 395 t ** MZFW 373 t

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: DLPMMM
Posted 2010-05-19 05:40:01 and read 6131 times.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 106):
The article clearly states breaking even on the A380 program in the first line.

I'm not sure why this is still being debated - It's beyond clear in the context of the article that he means the program and not on each frame.

He clearly meant the program on an annual basis WRT the impact on financials.

Any other interpretation is outlandish.

Quoting zeke (Reply 107):
Is anyone interested in discussing "Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant" ?

While this will be a new "variant", I tend to think of it as more of an upgrade to the single model as part of an ongoing PIP (product improvement program).

I am curious as to how many of the current users are bumping up against the max weight limitations in daily use, since none of the current users are not set up for maximum capacity. I would assume this upgrade would be most beneficial for high density configurations.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-05-19 05:43:44 and read 6071 times.

Airbus has all its planning done for an Euro between 1.45$ and 1.5$. At this $ level, we have seen numbers of a break even point at 600 or 800 aircraft. Since development costs were 12 Bio € + a few Bio sunk during the startup hazzle, I take that they estmate to get 25 Mio $ back per sale.

Currently the € is at 1.22. So let us make the calculation, I assume the price of an A380 to be 240 Mio $, which Airbus has in its planning as €160 Mio.

But for todays delivery they get 196 Mio € due to exchange rate, 36 Mio more than expected. Multiply this with the 200 planes that might be delivered in 6 years, and you have a return of investment of 7.2 Bio € added to previous calculations of 5 Bio. Now I add 7.2 + 5, compare this with 12, and judge if Ring's statement that "IF THE EXCHANGE RATES KEEP AS THEY ARE" the A380 can break even with 200 sales is not too far fetched.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: UALWN
Posted 2010-05-19 05:55:26 and read 5857 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Your tortured interpretation of Hans Peter Ring's statement is ludacris. It is insistance on such untenable positions through tortured logic and inane parsing of verbage that makes intelligent and dispassionate discussions of aviation programs so difficult on A.net.

How can you use the word "tortured", the non-word "ludacris", and then the words "intelligent and dispassionate discussions" in the same paragraph and expect to be taken seriously?

Quoting zvezda (Reply 105):
The only reasonable interpretation is that there MAYBE some HOPE that in five years Airbus will stop losing money on each frame (moving away from break-even) and start making a marginal profit on each frame (APPROACHING or moving toward break-even).

To me the only reasonable interpretation is that there may be some hope that in five years Airbus is getting close to breaking even in the whole program. There's no way he means that "maybe in 5 years we will manage to break even in each frame". The goal is to achieve break-even on a frame basis as soon as the production snafu is fixed for good. Airbus cannot possibly "hope that maybe in five years we are getting closer to fixing the production issues"!

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: RJ111
Posted 2010-05-19 05:58:01 and read 5830 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 109):
He clearly meant the program on an annual basis WRT the impact on financials.

I am truely lost for words.

The first line of the article reads...

Airbus could be close to breaking even on its troubled A380 superjumbo program five years from now if present trends--notably the stronger dollar--continue, a senior executive of Airbus's parent company said Friday.

Now maybe that is not what you want to hear and maybe it is not realistic (bare in mind this is a press release). But it couldn't be any clearer that he means the entire program. How is there any other way to interpret this?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Cerecl
Posted 2010-05-19 05:59:18 and read 5805 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Then you both clearly have no clue as to the subject matter.

Then you clearly did not read my post at 77 and the infomative post 80 by Astuteman.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Your tortured interpretation of Hans Peter Ring's statement is ludacris

This "tortured interpretation" happens to be shared by a professional aviation site as well as reputable new agencies. I note these reports were likely written by those for whom English is the first/primary language.  
Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
It is insistance on such untenable positions through tortured logic and inane parsing of verbage that makes intelligent and dispassionate discussions of aviation programs so difficult on A.net.

   You believe what you want to believe, significant number of others may disagree.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 103):
Get over the pom-pom waving already

This, Sir, is certainly "ludacris", as a wise man once said. It is even more ludicrous that some just do not seem capable of tolerating any piece of positivity on the A380 program and are determined to drag the thread off course.

[Edited 2010-05-19 06:02:37]

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-05-19 06:56:03 and read 5297 times.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 108):
This "tortured interpretation" happens to be shared by a professional aviation site as well as reputable new agencies. I note these reports were likely written by those for whom English is the first/primary language.

Were they done for an exchange rate of 1.45 or 1.22 - this makes a differnece of MANY billions?

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Stitch
Posted 2010-05-19 07:10:41 and read 5247 times.

Any idea what the Maximum Ramp Weight will be for "WV004"? I'm guessing 575t?

Quoting zeke (Reply 101):
I am curious given the flights that EK are using the A380 on, and being able to do so at reduced MTOWs, what routes BA are looking to use a 573t WV on.

As am I.

Unless they go for a high-density configuration (≥500 seats), I would think the 560t or 569t model would be sufficient. Perhaps it's just a forward-planning thing and they will take delivery at a lower TOW, keeping the extra capability in reserve should they find a need for it.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Baroque
Posted 2010-05-19 07:14:48 and read 5214 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 101):
Were they done for an exchange rate of 1.45 or 1.22 - this makes a differnece of MANY billions?

The break even number (if it really exists!!!) must have been dropping by the minute today as the Euro did a swan dive. Tomorrow, who knows!!

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-05-19 07:18:26 and read 5191 times.

Look my calculations above: If it was 600-800 at 1.50 it is 200 at 1.22.

Airbus will have giant profits this quarter.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-05-19 07:23:26 and read 5177 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 101):
Similar to Airbus and the A380, Boeing spoke of intentions at 747-8 launch time that put its decision to launch into a favorable light but would not bear up to realistic scrutiny.

For my part, I would beg to differ on both counts.

I still maintain that, had the A380 programme not experienced delays and cost overruns, the business case would have looked quite passable.

I also maintain that at the time the 748 was launched, it was becoming clear that the A380 had both a disruptive major delay looming, and there were VERY strong allegations of a massive weight overrun, and commensurate huge miss against performance targets.
I have to believe that Boeing saw a real opportunity to wipe Airbus's nose in the A380, as it was going to be late AND miss its targets by miles.
And that they thought they would clean up in the VLA passenger market as a consequence.

As it turned out, Airbus have managed to scoop up the performance fumble (if not the programme one) quite excellently - at least to the degree that the existing customers still really want the aircraft.
Otherwise, I think Boeing's aspirations (as I see them) may well have been realised.

Just my   

rgds

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: NAV20
Posted 2010-05-19 08:26:56 and read 4903 times.

Quoting sebolino (Reply 72):
Can you clarify ? Where do you get your numbers from ?
AFAIK, Airbus received 3.3 billions Euros, not E17M whatever it means.

According to the Gellman Report, sebolino, in the case of the A380, all support must be repaid by means of royalties, otherwise it accumulates at compound interest rates, and has to be repaid in full in 2017.

To quote the Gellman Report:-

"All direct support must be repaid. An amount equal to 25 per cent (25%) of the total development
cost (75% of direct support) must be recouped through royalty payments at an interest rate no less than the
cost of borrowing to the government; the remaining eight per cent (8%) (25% of direct support) with
royalties at that interest rate plus one per cent (cf. Exhibit 6-1). Both royalty streams must be repaid %u201Cwithin
no more than 17 years.%u201D


That appears to mean that all A380 launch aid, plus compound interest, must be repaid by 2017, either in royalties or in cash.

Gellman, way back in 2002, 'spelled out' what would almost certainly happen to the A380 project.On available evidence so far they were exactly right- except that they drastically over-estimated the number of A380 sales.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: mffoda
Posted 2010-05-19 08:31:30 and read 4888 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 73):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 79):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 81):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 82):

Not exactly guys.... You would have to look at every year those costs were booked. You cannot base the overall program costs based on todays lower exchange rate.

For example: 01 Jan 10 exchange rate was 1.4326, today is 1.2294.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2010-05-19 10:48:12 and read 4453 times.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 67):
While this will be a new "variant", I tend to think of it as more of an upgrade to the single model as part of an ongoing PIP (product improvement program).

   Agreed, just as the A330 and 777 have steadily improved during their lifespan. And wasn't the latest IGW variant of the A330 an improvement of a far bigger magnitude? I'm actually surprised that it will take until 2013 to introduce these improvements. But I can understand that Airbus wants to have ironed out all the production issues before introducing these changes.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 67):
am curious as to how many of the current users are bumping up against the max weight limitations in daily use, since none of the current users are not set up for maximum capacity. I would assume this upgrade would be most beneficial for high density configurations.

Perhaps current users aren't, but they could have some ideas where to deploy the HGW version to its fullest. I would like to think though that airlines that aren't customer yet will have requested these changes. VN perhaps, CX even more likely so...

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: Baroque
Posted 2010-05-19 10:49:27 and read 4448 times.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 78):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 73):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 79):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 81):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 82):

Not exactly guys.... You would have to look at every year those costs were booked. You cannot base the overall program costs based on todays lower exchange rate.

For example: 01 Jan 10 exchange rate was 1.4326, today is 1.2294.

I think we noticed that and speaking for myself in my better moments I do remember previous years. So yes what was done in year X is at cost Y and now many (but probably not all) costs will be different in part due to exchange rates. What is likely to differ most is that a million dollars paid on 01 Jan 2010, will report as a few more Euros today. Tomorrow, who knows!! I think we were both looking at the Euro equiv of dollar prices set a few years ago. First they went down in Euros, now they go up. But I am not holding my breath. (Too busy watching the amazing tricks of the $A in the last couple of days, and we have not a great deal to do with Greece in terms of trade although we have many Greek sourced migrants!!).

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: WarpSpeed
Posted 2010-05-19 11:26:09 and read 4281 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 75):
Airbus will have giant profits this quarter.

Currency hedges at higher rates negatively impacted Airbus earnings last quarter, so the full impact of a consistently lower Euro won't be felt until those hedges expire in 2012. However, taking a longer term view, Airbus might be in the market locking in today's lower rates with the expectation of the Euro rising again.

Topic: RE: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-05-19 11:51:13 and read 4178 times.

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 81):
Currency hedges at higher rates negatively impacted Airbus earnings last quarter, so the full impact of a consistently lower Euro won't be felt until those hedges expire in 2012. However, taking a longer term view, Airbus might be in the market locking in today's lower rates with the expectation of the Euro rising again.

Agree.

Which is what they did about 7 or 8 years ago, with great effect...

Rgds


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