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Topic: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: solnabo
Posted 2010-09-09 10:08:17 and read 33298 times.

.
According to Bloomberg:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...0-a380s-not-enough-clark-says.html

Yikes  Wow! How many more I wonder..

//Mike

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MCIGuy
Posted 2010-09-09 10:17:28 and read 33249 times.

This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: JBirdAV8r
Posted 2010-09-09 10:20:56 and read 33205 times.

The article seems to be much ado about nothing. Clark puts a BIG qualification on that statement by saying something about "the way things are going now." It's just hype. I'll believe it when I see more firm orders...but if I do, I'm afraid that:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

That's where I'm leaning.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: solnabo
Posted 2010-09-09 10:26:30 and read 33104 times.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

My thoughts too.

Where will this end, you can buy so much a/c in a carrier before it´ll burst?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-09-09 10:31:43 and read 33054 times.

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 2):
The article seems to be much ado about nothing. Clark puts a BIG qualification on that statement by saying something about "the way things are going now." It's just hype. I'll believe it when I see more firm orders...but if I do, I'm afraid that:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

That's where I'm leaning.

Why you say that? The Dubai economy is unassailable and will never have a downturn ever after they run out of oil money and start heaving taxes onto everything that is now free.  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: wingman
Posted 2010-09-09 10:33:52 and read 33012 times.

Here we go again. I said this in the last thread somewhat jokingly but it doesn't seem all that far-fetched for EK to simply negotiate exclusive rights to the 380 aircraft itself. They could guarantee a profitable run to Airbus of say 500 frames (e.g. through 2025) in exchange for aircraft exclusivity on the 388 from this point forward, allowing for deliveries of existing orders to other operators. Then demand development the 389 for full exclusivity. I bet Airbus would be sorely tempted by a guaranteed return on the aircraft and 100% standardization of current customization in the production process. And on the Airbus side they can enjoy the leverage of knowing that Clark's insatiable appetite for total domination can also be used against him. And for the EU what better than to know that 380 line jobs are safe and secure for another 15 years. I see a massive win/win brewing here.

On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MCIGuy
Posted 2010-09-09 10:37:07 and read 32947 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):

...or, EK's business plan falls on it's face and the market is suddenly flooded with A380s'.  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: solnabo
Posted 2010-09-09 10:38:25 and read 32914 times.

.
If EK expand in this pace Dubai Airport are gonna be as big as Luxemburg

 Wow!   

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: RL757PVD
Posted 2010-09-09 10:59:32 and read 32711 times.

By the time they get that 90th A380 I'll probably be driving a car that gets 70+ MPG, so id be curious to see what their business plan shows....

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-09 11:05:19 and read 32640 times.

Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: netjets21
Posted 2010-09-09 11:07:59 and read 32631 times.

Quoting solnabo (Reply 3):
Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

My thoughts too.

Where will this end, you can buy so much a/c in a carrier before it´ll burst?

My thoughts exactly. I'm not very good with the whole airline economics, but that's generally how it goes isn't it?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Chiad
Posted 2010-09-09 11:12:20 and read 32560 times.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

Quote:
The aircraft “are well spoken for and frankly, the way things are going for us at the moment, the 90 certainly won’t be enough,” President Tim Clark said today in a phone interview. “Demand for our services seems to be continuing to grow apace. We’re moving forward very robustly.”

All big ventures comes with risk.
At-least EK is successful so far, being the most profitable airline in the world.
I expect plenty of airlines in the Euro zone and the US to go belly up long before we see EK start losing money.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-09 11:19:03 and read 32478 times.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.


There are those that suggest that Airbus might make more money by cancelling every A380 order anyway....

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 9):
Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?

EK's current backlog of A380's is about 6% of Airbus's order book at list prices, and given that the sheer volume of orders almost guarantees that EK will have had higher than average discounts suggests that in reality, it could be 5% or less of current backlog.

To reiterate, most would suggest that in terms of cashflow and profitability, EK's remaining 80 A380's probably constitute a lot less than 5% of Airbus's backlog in each case........

Unless I got the message wrong somewhere...  

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: kaitak
Posted 2010-09-09 11:19:07 and read 32469 times.

One question that comes to my mind: how many A389 orders would Airbus need to commit to it? We know EK would like it; CX, VS and one or two others would, as well. Couldn't EK be persuaded to convert some of these orders (and however many more it wants to order) to A389s and launch it? After all, wwith that number of A380s on order, they will still be taking delivery of them by the end of the decade, by which time one would expect the 389 to be launched anyway.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: jfk777
Posted 2010-09-09 11:21:22 and read 32448 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 9):

Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?

Europeans will not let one foreign airline, no matter how big, stake their entire airline insdustry on how many airplanes that foreign airline orders from Airbus. Some EU countries are getting shady about Emirates after seeing how many flights they have to the UK & Australia.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-09 11:28:42 and read 32322 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 13):
how many A389 orders would Airbus need to commit to it?

For what its worth they needed 50 orders to commit to the original from a clean sheet of paper.

How may orders did it take for Boeing to commit to the derivative 748?

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-09 11:36:23 and read 32231 times.

Here we go again, every time EK orders A380s or talks about ordering A380s or is rumored to buy A380s, one-hundred people in this forum see them go down.

What EK wants to do with the planes has been explained very often. Connect Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and parts of the Americas through Dubai, which is in the middle of all that.

EK has 150 widebodies, can anybody tell me a carrier that has more? The new UA/CO "United" has 160, but a lot of them the rather small 767, plus they don't have a single A380 or 773.

Ek makes a billion dollars a year with their already huge and impressive fleet.

EK does not only need more than 90 A380s, they also need a bigger plane than that. The A380-900, because even the A388 will be to small for some places sooner or later, given that EK faces restriction, f.e. in Germany with only four destinations and 49 flights per week.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
At-least EK is successful so far, being the most profitable airline in the world.
I expect plenty of airlines in the Euro zone and the US to go belly up long before we see EK start losing money.

EK will mainly make Indian, Asian, and European carrier suffer. The Indians are already in trouble. EK has 10 destinations in India, connecting them with dozens in Europe and the US. European carriers might be next. LH and BA have little hope with their 747s against EK's A380s and 77Ws. AF/KL has horrendous staff costs. They can't fight EK over the price and - IMHO - not over quality either.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: scbriml
Posted 2010-09-09 11:39:23 and read 32201 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Unless I got the message wrong somewhere...

Dear Mr Astuteman,

Please stop using sense and logic in a thread about Emirates and the A380.

Signed,
The EK/A380 doubters*.

Some just cannot believe that an airline can be well-run, efficient and very proiftable. In the last 10 years, Emirates traffic has grown six-fold. They've just emerged from the GFC in great shape and hardly seem to have missed a beat. I do wonder if the nay-saying is nothing more than out and out jealousy? I also wonder what difference it would make if they had 90 748is on order?   

*I was going to use a stronger word, but thought I'd keep it polite!   

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-09 11:40:55 and read 32167 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
Why you say that? The Dubai economy is unassailable and will never have a downturn ever after they run out of oil money and start heaving taxes onto everything that is now free.

Well, the trend towards "stealth tax" is already there: Salik Road Tolls, Residency Visas etc...

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.

Might not be as clear-cut as this.

Let's imagine that EK goes but, or at least faces big hurdles to further growth in Europe. On the one hand, that will indeed impact on the EK entries on Airbus order book. But on the other hand, you can be sure that European Majors, Indian and Far East carriers would claw back opportunities.

And in the end, it would translate into AF, BA, VS, LH, 9W, TG, MH, SQ, QF, CZ, and KE ordering more 380s.

And probably LX, AZ, KL, TK, AI, IT, MU, CA, OZ, JL, NH and NZ joining the club.

Quoting solnabo (Reply 7):
If EK expand in this pace Dubai Airport are gonna be as big as Luxemburg

I guess that the Emirate of Dubai is smaller than my country of residence.  

DXB is now surrounded with urban areas, and is quite close to the border to the Emirate of Sharjah. JXB will offer more room for growth, but I wonder which airlines are gonna fly passenger services there: EK or non-EK airlines?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: fcogafa
Posted 2010-09-09 11:42:36 and read 32138 times.

The article reads to me like a dig at Dubai airport capacity and maybe a hurry up call to the govt over the new airport which seems to be progressing very slowly.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-09 12:01:28 and read 31977 times.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
President Tim Clark said today in a phone interview. “Demand for our services seems to be continuing to grow apace. We’re moving forward very robustly.”

Just to back that up: just 9 days into the A380 operating one of 2 daily MAN services, at least 4 of he 18 flights that have had taken place have had in excess of 500 passengers on board; it's reported that today's inbound service had 515 passengers. And this is a very much a secondary market,

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
Some EU countries are getting shady about Emirates after seeing how many flights they have to the UK & Australia.

If they have a problem with that, oh dear they must be frightened of competition. It would be interesting to know how many passengers EK is currently flying out o the European regional airprots against the numbers out of the "mainstream" airports and whether the EK operations have had any effect on that total.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: EA772LR
Posted 2010-09-09 12:09:24 and read 31874 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
Some just cannot believe that an airline can be well-run, efficient and very proiftable. In the last 10 years, Emirates traffic has grown six-fold.

No but let's be fair and honest here. It's not crazy to wonder how EK will take all of the A380s. Notice I never said there's no way, but it's completely normal to believe that when we see an airline that says 90+ of the largest (by far) passenger jets in the world isn't enough, is being overly ambitious. Forget that they have so many 777s and A350s on order as well. I think it would be naive to just nod my head *yes* and assume this isn't overly ambitious for an airline. They can't sustain that growth forever. I'd really really love to see 90+ A380s for a mix of customers as opposed to just one, but 90+ A380s on your order books is better than none I suppose.  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: pylon101
Posted 2010-09-09 12:16:04 and read 31799 times.

This is a.net forum.
People here (most of them) hardly are able to grasp today's reality of aviation industry.
They don't even try to look out of the box - to see the years to come.
Being a global forum - it manages to be surprisingly conservative and provincial.

PLEASE NOTE: all said applies to me as much as to all a.netters  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MCO2BRS
Posted 2010-09-09 12:17:11 and read 31793 times.

I don't know my airline history as much as I would like. Has there ever been an airline like EK before, with regard to expansion (past, present and projected), funding, facilities, quality of product etc...? Or is EK the first of its kind?

I'm a big fan of the A380, and the would like to see Airbus sell a lot more (regardless of carrier)... but I can't help but think that EK isn't invincible. Having said that though, I have to hand it to Mr Clark, he's got balls!

Cheers

MCO 2 BRS

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-09 12:26:06 and read 31697 times.

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 2):
The article seems to be much ado about nothing.

Yep. But it put EK's name in print. A good CEO generates free PR. Why pay for ads when it can be free?

Besides, how can EK fly even 90 from DXB (I know, some will replace others). While I've chuckled at many anti-EK arguments in the past, the reality is Dubai does *not* have the funds to complete JXB at this time.
From the OP link:
The pace of development at Dubai airport, which last year handled 41 million passengers to rank as the 17th-busiest hub in world, was one of the main obstacles to growth, Clark said.

But this article was also FUD. Notice how it is said: “A lot depends on what happens with the other Gulf carriers,” Lobbenberg said in a telephone interview. “If Dubai survives as the sole hub in the Gulf, then you could justify a more aggressive outlook.”

Who is Lobbenberg, an analyst with RBS, casting doubt on QR/EY? Does he have research online backing up his statement? (Sorry, I'm too tired to do a proper google, see my new signature.)

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
I said this in the last thread somewhat jokingly but it doesn't seem all that far-fetched for EK to simply negotiate exclusive rights to the 380 aircraft itself.

I ended up rebutting this with a long post. Mea Culpa. But look into all the reasons this cannot happen. It is not in either EK's or Airbus' benefit.

Not allowed by contract. SQ, QF, LH, KE and others all hold options and purchase rights.

What about Airbus being a consortium? Seriously, how could Airbus secure government backed loans if they sidelined BA, VS, IB, LH, or AF? I'm not kidding. The political consequences would end it.

Also, having only *one* airline operate a type kills the political will to adapt airports to the A380. Right now India does not allow A380's in via bilateral. If AI/9W/IT were not allowed to buy whatever A380's they chose... no Indian airport would accept the A380. It would be that simple politically.

Also, look at the history of Boeing 247. By granting UA an exclusive for the first few years of production, it ensured sales of the DC-2 and laid the groundwork for the dominance of Douglas with the DC-3. Boeing lost KLM, TWA, and a few other customers by that stupid exclusive deal. Why would Airbus repeat that mistake? It took a propulsion technology change for Boeing to recover from that *one* mistake of aircraft exclusivity.

An EK exclusive for the A380 ensures great sales of the 748. Why would Airbus do that? EK likes to negotiate for aircraft. You do realize that EK would have to offer Airbus a profit margin far beyond what they could hope for otherwise? In other words, pay $50 to $70 million more per airframe for an exclusive by my estimate. $50 million/20,000 flight with 517 seats per flight is ~$4.80 per ticket. That would be nothing on CASM, but why would EK pay more.

And do not get me started on maintenance support if EK had an exclusive... With a lack of global maintenance support the freighter conversions cannot happen. (You need a decade of having hundreds of people 'crawl around' a frame to create the competing conversion packages.)

Or financing. Do you realize how *worthless* of collateral on a loan an exclusive airframe is? Its not even worth parts. It is beercan with interfering parts to be removed before being melted down.   

In other words, there won't be an exclusive on an Airbus or Boeing airframe. That would be too much of a gift to the competitor.

It would also tie Airbus' bond rating to EK. I hear rumors (via my engine contacts) of new orders in work.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: oneworld77
Posted 2010-09-09 12:28:29 and read 32514 times.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 8):
By the time they get that 90th A380 I'll probably be driving a car that gets 70+ MPG,

Huh? are you being sarcastic? I already get 70mpg. Were you being funny?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Centre
Posted 2010-09-09 12:29:13 and read 32645 times.

Not much was said about EK when they ordered more 77Ws recently, and "everyone" was happy for it.
and some were suggesting that EK will order close to 100 777NG once Boeing commences the offering.

EK is a well-run Business, and they are out there for the MONEY, like everybody else on the market. If you are going to say "EK is all about mine is bigger than yours", then 58 A380s was more than enough for them to claim the fame, they didn't need to order another 32 copies. Obviously it was a pure business decision.

What if it was the best airline in the world (DL) that we are talking about here?
  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Centre
Posted 2010-09-09 12:33:37 and read 32989 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
(Sorry, I'm too tired to do a proper google, see my new signature.)

Congratulations on the New Addition, and wish you all the best.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: oneworld77
Posted 2010-09-09 12:36:51 and read 32912 times.

Quoting Centre (Reply 26):

What if it was the best airline in the world (DL) that we are talking about here?

Best? By what measure?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: FlyNWA727
Posted 2010-09-09 12:53:18 and read 32728 times.

It's really not without justification that there are so many naysayers on A.net when it comes to Emirate's insatiable aircraft ordering appetite. While I'm sure there are just some bitter people out there who don't want the 380 to succeed ... I think there are far more people out there who see EK becoming a modern-day Pan American World Airways.

This seems like history repeating its self. The beginning of the end for Pan Am, was way back when they originally ordered the 747. PA ordered 25 examples (if I'm not mistaken), and PA was a truly "global airline", back when this decision was made. At its peak, PA was operating over 80 747s, at one time. It proved to be a financial disaster for the carrier, as well as a lot of excess capacity. 90 A380s seems insane for any airline. Then when you lump the dozens upon dozens of 77Ws and God knows how many other aircraft types into that mix, you can't really blame people for questioning EK's rationale.

No, I don't think anyone on this board is/was an airline executive with experience running an international airline, but you don't have to be an airline CEO to know what's going on in the world today and seeing how EK seems to operating on a completely different page than any other airline, many of which are currently much larger.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Centre
Posted 2010-09-09 12:55:42 and read 32706 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
An EK exclusive for the A380 ensures great sales of the 748. Why would Airbus do that? EK likes to negotiate for aircraft. You do realize that EK would have to offer Airbus a profit margin far beyond what they could hope for otherwise? In other words, pay $50 to $70 million more per airframe for an exclusive by my estimate. $50 million/20,000 flight with 517 seats per flight is ~$4.80 per ticket. That would be nothing on CASM, but why would EK pay more.

There is no need for exclusivity agreement... With the latest order by EK, the production is already sold out well into 2015-17.

Quoting Reply 28):
Best? By what measure?

By DL fanboys.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-09 12:57:46 and read 32739 times.

Quoting FlyNWA727 (Reply 29):
At its peak, PA was operating over 80 747s, at one time. It proved to be a financial disaster for the carrier, as well as a lot of excess capacity. 90 A380s seems insane for any airline.

It didn't help that Pan Am became one of the worst run airlines in the world. I still remember the last flight I took with them - SYD-LAX first class - and the service levels were shockingly awful.

I wouldn't lay it all on the aircraft.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: FlyNWA727
Posted 2010-09-09 13:02:16 and read 32615 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
I wouldn't lay it all on the aircraft.

That's why I stated "It was the beginning of the end". PA suffered for mismanagement, terrorist attacks, and a slew of other issues. But PA's decision to purchase such a massive amount of 747s, was the biggest reason they went into financial turmoil.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: EPA001
Posted 2010-09-09 13:02:26 and read 32660 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Unless I got the message wrong somewhere...

Dear Mr Astuteman,

Please stop using sense and logic in a thread about Emirates and the A380.

Signed,
The EK/A380 doubters*.


        

But seriously, so far this is not another order for the next batch of A380's. But with this signal they might be opening the door in Airbus putting the A389 on offer before 2015 with an EIS around 2018?  

And that might attract some more orders from existing and new customers as well.  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-09 13:08:07 and read 32540 times.

Quoting FlyNWA727 (Reply 32):
But PA's decision to purchase such a massive amount of 747s, was the biggest reason they went into financial turmoil.

This thread isn't about Pan Am, but I would suggest that the financial management of Pan Am had been inept for some time, long before it became apparent to the outside world.

Juan Trippe may have been an airline visionary, but it was an old vision and the financial management of the airline left much to be desired.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-09 13:29:10]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Slinky09
Posted 2010-09-09 13:10:50 and read 32460 times.

ANet is full of people who want EK to fail and AB to fail. It's your want ... it's not without a large dose of nationalism either. Most of you probably have sincere views, many are probably xenophobic.

None of you have ever said the same about Ryanair and Boeing methinks.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-09 13:20:02 and read 32157 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
EK has 150 widebodies, can anybody tell me a carrier that has more? The new UA/CO "United" has 160, but a lot of them the rather small 767, plus they don't have a single A380 or 773.

Ek makes a billion dollars a year with their already huge and impressive fleet.

Some might call that a red flag when many other well run airlines can barely handle a dozen 380s, if any at all. And considering EK is essentially an arm of a UAE government whose smoke and mirrors show had to be bailed out by AUH, it's not a stretch of the imagination to wonder whether EK's numbers are reflect reality.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: alasdair1982
Posted 2010-09-09 13:35:51 and read 31742 times.

Quoting david_itl,reply=20Just to back that up: just 9 days into the A380 operating one of 2 daily MAN services, at least 4 of he 18 flights that have had taken place have had in excess of 500 passengers on board; it's reported that today's inbound service had 515 passengers. And this is a very much a secondary market,
:

Just a thought regarding the passenger numbers going up. As far as serving GLA is concerned, would EK ever invest in infrastructure upgrades to fit in the A380 if it were not to go 2x daily?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-09 13:53:22 and read 31304 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
I also wonder what difference it would make if they had 90 748is on order?

  

Somewhat, but not completely. They are still from a smaller country and they are Arabs.

Besides, even I would prefer 20 747-8Is and 70 A388s over 90 A380s.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 13):
One question that comes to my mind: how many A389 orders would Airbus need to commit to it?

They rather need a fully working and profitable A388 line before they give resources to the A389.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 18):
I guess that the Emirate of Dubai is smaller than my country of residence.


Ehem, no.

Dubai: 3.885 km²
Luxemburg: 2.586 km²

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
*I was going to use a stronger word, but thought I'd keep it polite!


Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 36):
Some might call that a red flag when many other well run airlines can barely handle a dozen 380s, if any at all. And considering EK is essentially an arm of a UAE government whose smoke and mirrors show had to be bailed out by AUH, it's not a stretch of the imagination to wonder whether EK's numbers are reflect reality.

LH, QF, and SQ can all handle more than a dozen A380s, BA and AF have a dozen on order and I guess their final number will be higher.

The problems in Dubai were created by real estate companies. The bubble busted in the real estate market. Less likely to happen to EK, too, because they rely on pax from many many countries. Their demand is not as volatile as a real estate market.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: uaeflyer
Posted 2010-09-09 14:05:30 and read 30996 times.

Whenever there is a topic that discuss Emirates i enjoy reading all the comments and replies. Some are very realistic and they accept that EK is a successful managed company and absorbing the little cash available in the aviation world. Some are so careful and always get shocked and start giving a negative comments.

It seems that Mr. Clark got what he want from all of us, i mean all of us who are in the world of aviation. Tim Clark is the number one celebrity in aviation, his phone call to Bloomberg was to purpose.He wanted to take attention as usual, and if you guys go back, you would realize that he pop-up every quarter and shock the industry and get back. In addition, He wanted to remind Boeing about the range he asked for for the 748i, hey guys are you awake or you forgot my request.

Furthermore, i think yes he would need more A380s because of the strong demand he is getting. For example i was on one of the A380 flights last week and saw many Australians on-board and asked them why you guys and not flying QF, they said we used to fly QF but not any more. EK offer a wider network at a cheaper price and high level FFP.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 18):
EK or non-EK airlines?

It is an international airport, and it it is open for all airlines. BTW, any passenger airline can start operation any time after March 2011.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CharlieNoble
Posted 2010-09-09 14:33:33 and read 30462 times.

How much of Emirates' traffic actually consists of people going to Dubai?

Looking at the globe I think that their strategic location makes them a great 'via' waypoint, with the potential for continued strong demand for long-haul capacity regardless of how well the UAE's individual economy is going. If they continually provide a good service they can be the middle man stopover point for any two large population centers, taking business from the large carriers based at either end of the trip.

Crossroads of trade so to speak, no different than from ancient times. Sorry if that's stupid or obvious, kind of "just hit me" today.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: faro
Posted 2010-09-09 14:47:43 and read 30158 times.

You can be extremely successful and rationally plan for more success down the line, but there is a limit to that, it's called time. No-one can predict the commercial airline environment 5-10 years from now, no-one. In that sense ordering +90 A380's is a gamble and a huge one. So far, EK's track record in crystallizing their very ambitious planning is very, very good; that may or may not continue down the line.

Faro

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: AirNZ
Posted 2010-09-09 16:15:27 and read 28851 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
will never have a downturn ever after they run out of oil money

Except of course you again 'forget' (read ignore facts) that Dubai is not dependent/built on oil revenues.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 8):
By the time they get that 90th A380 I'll probably be driving a car that gets 70+ MPG,

And? Do you not realise that here's nothing unusual about 70+ MPG cars in Europe, so you can actually easily achieve driving such now.....so no reason to wait?

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
Europeans will not let one foreign airline, no matter how big, stake their entire airline insdustry on how many airplanes that foreign airline orders from Airbus. Some EU countries are getting shady about Emirates after seeing how many flights they have to the UK & Australia.

Can you explain that further please, as in a factual basis based on European law and not as an 'off the cuff' remark. Which EU countries are "getting shady"......use use the plural so I assume you know of several?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-09 16:15:30 and read 28840 times.

Quoting CharlieNoble (Reply 42):
Looking at the globe I think that their strategic location makes them a great 'via' waypoint, with the potential for continued strong demand for long-haul capacity regardless of how well the UAE's individual economy is going. If they continually provide a good service they can be the middle man stopover point for any two large population centers, taking business from the large carriers based at either end of the trip.

Agreed.

But that implies first that EK be able to sustain the same growth path while offering the same quality and consistency in their product, which unfortunately, isn't too much so at this time.


Other factors may render alternatives to hubbing with EK via DXB/JXB more attractive than at the moment, namely:

- EY and QR keeping up with their current expansion

- WY and KU trying to ape EK, EY and QR (forget it for GF)

- MS and TK building strong hubs at the eastern fringes of Europe, within Star Alliance

- same with CY and ME at LCA/BEY within Skyteam

- same with RJ within OW

- LY setting up its own alliance and expanding further east, creating another competing hub at TLV

- AI joining Star Alliance right now, and 9W and IT doing so with OW/Skyteam soon

- ET stepping up ties with partner airlines within Star Alliance

- Further and final airline consolidation in Europe, with better and more intensive use of mid-tier hubs as top-tier hubs get more congested

- 787s and 350s coming on the market, which will probably boost prospects for longhaul flights between major Asian airports and those mid-ranking european hubs, especially as Alliances step up internal ties. Also relevant in Africa-Asian traffic.

- Further enhancements at Southeast Asia /Australasia airlines. CX, TG and SQ have doubtless resources and inspiration to revamp again and again their products, while NZ soon-to-come new longhaul cabins will certainly drive standards up, as EK did itself in the 80s and the 90s.

- greater integration within the existing alliances

- KC trying to ape EK: not too soon, but you never know in 10-15 yrs' time

- Maybe european LCCs starting flights to DXB/JXB: not too soon, but who knows in the middle-run. After all, U2 already flies as far as SSH and HRG. Maybe 788 or a 358 having a Y class with reasonable frills (1 checked-in luggage for free + 1 cold meal) and a good Y+ class could make it, with 2 daily flights on each route (1 daytime, 1 at night, for both better consumer choice and aircraft use). If so, it could ruin down yields on Europe-DXB/JXB (also AUH), and thence put unde threat margins on Europe-Asia transit via DXB/JXB.

- Middle East political risks (What if there is a conflict between the West/Israel and Iran? etc)

- Transit conditions in DXB/JXB: uncivilised times in the middle of the night, sleeping on the floor in Y, or snoozing in crowded lounges in F/C isn't too appealling, really

- Countermeasures by European and Asian governments against unfair competition

- Boycott campaigns against Dubai in Europe and US: not a risk right now, but may become an option for some unions and other NGOs in Europe, as Dubai goes more visible and discussed.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-09 16:29:03 and read 28674 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 46):
But that implies first that EK be able to sustain the same growth path while offering the same quality and consistency in their product, which unfortunately, isn't too much so at this time.


Other factors may render alternatives to hubbing with EK via DXB/JXB more attractive than at the moment, namely:

I'm not going to copy and paste the long list of negatives you've dredged up, but do you really believe that a management as smart as Emirates has shown itself to be has not considered all these things?

But one puzzles me:

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 46):
Countermeasures by European and Asian governments against unfair competition

What unfair competition? Or are you suggesting that the European airlines don't know how to compete?

I see that Emirates is dropping one flight to Australia, if only temporarily, which suggests that (a) they are driven by market forces and (b) Qantas knows how to cope.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: jfk777
Posted 2010-09-09 16:57:45 and read 28379 times.

Quoting FlyNWA727 (Reply 29):
This seems like history repeating its self. The beginning of the end for Pan Am, was way back when they originally ordered the 747. PA ordered 25 examples (if I'm not mistaken), and PA was a truly "global airline", back when this decision was made. At its peak, PA was operating over 80 747s, at one time. It proved to be a financial disaster for the carrier, as well as a lot of excess capacity

Pan AM had about 50 747 in 1980, they may have operated 80 different 747 but not 80 at the same time.

Quoting mariner (Reply 34):
Juan Trippe may have been an airline visionary, but it was an old vision and the financial management of the airline left much to be desired.

Juan Trippe had a benefactor in Jock Whitney who often funded Pan AM rights issue with warrants to fund growth and loses.

Emirates has a huge benefactor in the UAE & DUBAI, PAN AM never had such a beneficiary. PA was despised in Washington, Trippe was too arrogant for politicians.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-09 17:31:40 and read 27925 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 48):
PA was despised in Washington, Trippe was too arrogant for politicians.

That may be, I don't know. I do know that many politicians are no strangers to arrogance. LOL.

The greater issue seems to me to be as I described in post #47 and certainly Pan Am was aware of this when they bought National, but it was too late and it was the wrong airline.

There's much more to it, of course, but I just don't see any real connection between what Pan Am did and what Emirates is doing, beyond the most obvious.

I do recall that when Singapore first started spreading its wings a lot of people were surprised, scoffed and said it couldn't last.

I thought that attitude was all a bit Western Imperialist. I feel the same way about some of the attitudes to Emirates.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: GlobalCabotage
Posted 2010-09-09 17:33:00 and read 27913 times.

Where is EK going to land all this metal? I guess this opens up RJ cities in the US for direct service to DXB!

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-09 17:33:49 and read 27986 times.

Quoting solnabo (Reply 7):
If EK expand in this pace Dubai Airport are gonna be as big as Luxemburg

  

JXB won't be *that* big.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Maktoum_International_Airport

Last I heard, it will only be five runways. 'only' & A380's...  
Quoting Centre (Reply 30):
There is no need for exclusivity agreement... With the latest order by EK, the production is already sold out well into 2015-17.

Airbus took a *long* time to sort out their production issues. But theoretically they can double production. But when?

and how fast?   

Seriously, Airbus should be able to increase production quite a bit, but now they have to prove they have 'learned their lessons.' I normally give the benefit of the doubt, but there are details on the A380 production I do not know that have hindered the production rate (above and beyond normal 'learning curves', the Catia IT mismanagement, and wiring gawf.).

EK threads are always amusing. Everyone pointing out why they should have already failed instead of being a major airline. Do they need to improve? Yes. But when I read their annual reports, I see expenses at about the ratios I expect to see at a well run airline. I see an airline that spents money by buying *a lot* of aircraft at discounts and rotates their fleet early (minimizing fuel and maintenance expenses).

With the (slow) return of premium traffic, EK should be able to stay in the black and grow.

It looks like their next major expansion will be feed from Russia. That I hadn't expect (I was looking for more China to Africa growth). It doesn't matter... more feed is more growth.  

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: cpd
Posted 2010-09-09 17:48:23 and read 27681 times.

It's quite obvious what they plan to do with these A380s. It's just a matter of how many countries will allow them to get away with this plan.

Use them on every route, sell at lowest prices - it'll be a bloodbath.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-09 18:12:08 and read 27414 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):
LH, QF, and SQ can all handle more than a dozen A380s, BA and AF have a dozen on order and I guess their final number will be higher.

OK, two dozen then, but 90? If something looks too good to be true....

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):

The problems in Dubai were created by real estate companies.

Which were part of the whole smoke 'n mirrors production to make DXB a destination that could not exist without an airline like EK

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: cosmofly
Posted 2010-09-09 18:21:07 and read 27366 times.

EK has been successful with a boat load of 777s. Will that translate automatically to a sound business plan using a boat load of A380s?

It is becoming a poker game. EK has a good hand so far and mostly likely want to force some mistakes out of its opponents (airlines or governments). If EK does become successful with 100+ A380s (and do not forget to add 100+ 777s), it will mostly like be at the expense of many other "national" airlines.

Baring political or labor retaliations from other countries, or geo-political instabilities in the middle east, it is unlikely EU or US carriers can compete on the same routes that EK flies. Not even LCCs will survive long as Dubai will likely build their own Goliath LCC to take advantage of their inherent advantages.

Securing all meaningful slots and becoming a ruling A380 customer, and also forcing Airbus to launch A389, may indeed give EK a better chance in its high stake poker game.

In the end, it may still be good for consumers, just not for the airline industries.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: francoflier
Posted 2010-09-09 19:24:42 and read 26596 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
EK does not only need more than 90 A380s, they also need a bigger plane than that. The A380-900, because even the A388 will be to small for some places sooner or later,

I think that if that need for more superjumbo capacity did materialize, it would be wise for Airbus to try and push the A389 into the hands of EK, even if it meant converting some of the existing A388 order or taking some of their early A388 back from them eventually.

It would be a low risk way of finally launching the A380-900, and other operators might jump onboard from there.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-09 22:16:12 and read 25216 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. An A/C generates many, many times it's value in income over the course of it's lifetime, doesn't it? So the airlines operating in Europe generate much more income and move much more money around the EU, collectively, than EADS does, don't they?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
Here we go again, every time EK orders A380s or talks about ordering A380s or is rumored to buy A380s, one-hundred people in this forum see them go down.

Actually, I find the opposite to often be true. I find that whenever someone questions the viability of the 380 program, or some aspect of it, such as EK's order, it's the defenders who more often get sarcastic, as in:

[quote=scbriml,reply=17]Dear Mr Astuteman,

Please stop using sense and logic in a thread about Emirates and the A380.

Signed,
The EK/A380 doubters*.
Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
What EK wants to do with the planes has been explained very often. Connect Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and parts of the Americas through Dubai, which is in the middle of all that.

Exactly - but I don't see EK getting Carte Blanche to do that. I don't see EK beng able to control the restrictions that various countries are going to put in place in order to protect their own airlines and alliances.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
EK will mainly make Indian, Asian, and European carrier suffer. The Indians are already in trouble. EK has 10 destinations in India, connecting them with dozens in Europe and the US. European carriers might be next. LH and BA have little hope with their 747s against EK's A380s and 77Ws. AF/KL has horrendous staff costs. They can't fight EK over the price and - IMHO - not over quality either.

So my opinion is; they will not be allowed to continue this world take-over unfettered. However, they seem to be buying A/C with the assumption that that they will be able to utilize them wherever and how ever they want. This is what I don't understand.

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
What unfair competition? Or are you suggesting that the European airlines don't know how to compete?

Well, EK has two advantages that cannot be competed against. 1) Their geographic position, and 2) their low costs due to various things we KNOW, and some other things that MAY be true. So the only recourse that other countries have to protect their airlines, since the playing field is not level, is restricted/controlled access of EK. But EK seems to be buying A/C as if this hurdle does not exist.

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
I see a massive win/win brewing here.

I'm not convinced. (However, I am not predicting the imminent demise of EK - in case anybody is wondering...)

[Edited 2010-09-09 22:29:59]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-09 22:29:32 and read 25127 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 56):
Well, EK has two advantages that cannot be competed against. 1) Their geographic position, and 2) their low costs due to various things we KNOW, and some other things that MAY be true.

I would think that Paris has a fairly desirable geographic position, or Amsterdam or Frankfurt, and London used to be called - maybe still is - the cross-roads of the world.

As to costs, are they not controllable by European airlines? Ryanair seems to control costs just fine.

Emirates has more strikes against it than any European airline It is an Arab/Muslim airline at a time of some considerable Islamo-phobia in Europe - I imagine very few Jewish people fly with them - and its main hub is a vast sandpit with an intolerable climate in a politically volatile part of the world.

Happily, they had the good sense to build a lot of buildings with good air-conditioning.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: cschleic
Posted 2010-09-09 23:04:32 and read 24743 times.

That kind of growth, whether airport (Dubai's 15% per year) or airline, is unsustainable. It can't last forever. Think about it. The world economies aren't growing as fast as EK. If EK kept up that pace, eventually it would have revenues larger than all the other airlines combined, and larger than customers could provide. Obviously that can't happen. That growth rate is greater than the long term historic average rates for country economies, and that situation can't be maintained indefinitely.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2010-09-10 00:54:19 and read 23446 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 51):

JXB won't be *that* big.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Maktoum_International_Airport

Last I heard, it will only be five runways. 'only' & A380's...

Looks as if it'll have six runways. Jeeesh...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Du...rld_Central_Airport_2_Imresolt.jpg

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-10 01:07:47 and read 23307 times.

Regarding the issue of what Emirates will do with all these 380s, and will there be more protectionist restriction as to their usage in various parts of the world...

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
I would think that Paris has a fairly desirable geographic position, or Amsterdam or Frankfurt, and London used to be called - maybe still is - the cross-roads of the world.

The difference is that many European airlines compete for European transfer traffic. EK has no nearby competition and is uniquely placed in the world FAR between several huge populations areas including emerging markets. While ultra-long range A/C are reducing transfer traffic at traditional airports, Dubai continues to grow. For example - you HAVE to stop on the Kangaroo route, and many routes like it, so suddenly the transfer opportunities for Emirates are ENDLESS.

We could ask the airlines themselves - BA, KL, AF, LH, who all have large shares of the traffic at their respective centers, why their orders for 380s are quite modest or non-existent compared to EKs. Even though London, Paris, Amsterdam and Northern Holland, and the Frankfurt areas are still bustling business and tourist centers. It's because they exist in the real world of airline competition.

Why else would EK have two widebody (one, a 380) departures from MAN every day? Because these passengers are transferring to many other places; they are mostly not going to Dubai.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
As to costs, are they not controllable by European airlines?

The Emirates tax breaks, labor laws, and other advantages we likely don't know about since the airport, oil, and airline are all owned by the same entity (and the books are closed), comprise an advantageous scenario not available to European airlines.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
Emirates has more strikes against it than any European airline It is an Arab/Muslim airline at a time of some considerable Islamo-phobia in Europe - I imagine very few Jewish people fly with them - and its main hub is a vast sandpit with an intolerable climate in a politically volatile part of the world.

This is smoke and mirrors; These issues are immaterial... None of these things have any appreciable affect on ticket sales. Dubai is a terrific transfer airport with almost no weather and looong runways for hot days. I don't really know what you are on about with this last paragraph.

So I ask you all - are not various governments of the world going to make moves to protect jobs and vital infrastructure restricting access to EK, like Canada and others have done?

Now I don't get into a tit-for-tat discussion, and I don't need to be the last person who speaks in order to state my point of view. But I would be interested to know what recourse countries/airlines could require of Emirates and Dubai in order to level the playing field.

1) 5th freedom rights?
2) Allow transfer travelers on non-Emirates airlines to remain sequestered and forgo Dubai immigration - since they are not staying in the Emirates?
3)Allow airline alliances to set up seamless transfer operations in Dubai in order to provide transfer traffic options similar to Emirates?

Any ideas?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-10 02:15:02 and read 22537 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
For example - you HAVE to stop on the Kangaroo route, and many routes like it, so suddenly the transfer opportunities for Emirates are ENDLESS.

The European airlines withdrew from the Kangaroo route rather than compete. Including British - who has extraordinary historical associations with Australia and remarkable traffic rights along the way.

Which brings us to:

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
Why else would EK have two widebody (one, a 380) departures from MAN every day? Because these passengers are transferring to many other places; they are mostly not going to Dubai.

There has been nothing stopping British flying long haul from MAN, to anywhere really, including Dubai. Except that they don't, they fly no long haul from MAN, to the bitterness of many of the locals.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
The Emirates tax breaks, labor laws, and other advantages we likely don't know about since the airport, oil, and airline are all owned by the same entity (and the books are closed), comprise an advantageous scenario not available to European airlines.

If the books are closed how do you know this?

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
This is smoke and mirrors;

If you're just going to dismiss something that is unpalatable to you, then there doesn't seem a lot of point.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
Dubai is a terrific transfer airport with almost no weather and looong runways for hot days. I don't really know what you are on about with this last paragraph.

Any great hub is two things - a cross roads and a desirable destination in its own right. A long time ago, Singapore was not a desirable destination, it was a mosquito infested swamp, it did not have the natural advantages of any European city.

So with Dubai.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
Now I don't get into a tit-for-tat discussion, and I don't need to be the last person who speaks in order to state my point of view. But I would be interested to know what recourse countries/airlines could require of Emirates and Dubai in order to level the playing field.

Beyond making implications about closed books, you haven't explained - to me - why the playing field is not level.

There has been a shift in paradigm.

The basics of this shift were foreseen almost sixty years ago by the writer Nevil Shute in his predictive (prophetic?) book "Round The Bend."

The book should be required reading for any airline CEO - or anyone - who doesn't understand what is going on. It may be best described as "a post-colonial Asian aviation future."

From my own perspective, I cannot imagine the resistance to these new successful airlines. Perhaps Europe would be happier if Dubai was more like Iraq or Iran?

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-10 02:21:42]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-10 02:15:39 and read 22512 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 46):
Other factors may render alternatives to hubbing with EK via DXB/JXB more attractive than at the moment, namely:

- EY and QR keeping up with their current expansion

- WY and KU trying to ape EK, EY and QR (forget it for GF)

- MS and TK building strong hubs at the eastern fringes of Europe, within Star Alliance

- same with CY and ME at LCA/BEY within Skyteam

- same with RJ within OW

- LY setting up its own alliance and expanding further east, creating another competing hub at TLV

- AI joining Star Alliance right now, and 9W and IT doing so with OW/Skyteam soon

- ET stepping up ties with partner airlines within Star Alliance

EY and QR are indeed interesting factors in this game. They are really copying EK's model, but not on the same size. However, they will be big enough and could hurt EK. Abu Dhabi and Qatar have oil/gas wealth that Dubai doesn't have, they can pay losses of their carriers for a very long time. IIRC both QR and EY are not profitablem while EK is.

WY and KU aping EK? What makes you think they'll ever try that?

TK is already growing very fast and might become a serious competitor. IST is not based so well for flights from China to Africa, but it is located better than DXB for flights between Europe and East Asia, Europe and Africa, and Europe and the Middle East (say BEY f.e.). Those seem to be more lucrative markets to me. Problem for TK will be the airport. Unless they get a bigger and better one, they can't do much against EK.

CY, ME, RJ, and LY have interesting geographic locations, but they are far far away from competing with EK, even with the help of alliances.

ET is surprising with orders for very modern planes, 77L, 787, A359. They can bite into EK's business to Southern Africa and between South America and India, but how good is their airport ADD really when it comes to that?

The Indians I would forget about. EK has 10 destinations in India, 20 or so in Europe and North America (that have a good market to India), all connected with one stop in DXB. How can they ever compete with that?

Interesting that you mention KC. Regarding how the new capital city is built, they seem to somewhat be like a gulf country. The natural wealth of Kazakhstan is enormous. TSE/ALA have a good location between Europe and East Asia, but not much to the North. Will be interesting to see if something happens there.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 53):

OK, two dozen then, but 90? If something looks too good to be true....

EK is unique in that aspect. But there has never been a world population of seven billion before, never so much emerging wealth in countries like China, India, etc., never a hub the size of JXB in such a great geographic location. It is unprecedented, but not impossible.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 53):
Which were part of the whole smoke 'n mirrors production to make DXB a destination that could not exist without an airline like EK

Smoke and mirrors sounds like an intentional forgery. I think Dubai was rather not expecting the magnitude of the GFC. A lot there is built on loans or paid by customers before it is built. When suddenly the customers can't pay what they promised any more, and banks can't give new loans, because they are all impacted by the crises, it is not the fault of the real estate companies, let alone their intention.

EK doesn't need the "destination" Dubai. They probably have already more than 75% transiting pax. With all the A380s, that might become more than 95%.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 55):
I think that if that need for more superjumbo capacity did materialize, it would be wise for Airbus to try and push the A389 into the hands of EK, even if it meant converting some of the existing A388 order or taking some of their early A388 back from them eventually.

It would be a low risk way of finally launching the A380-900, and other operators might jump onboard from there.

EK certainly has the right to change their orders into A389s, they (and Airbus) certainly wrote that into the contract. However, EK wants to have all the planes by 2017, and I doubt the A389 will be available by then. My guess is that Airbus launches it by 2015, making it available 3-5 years later.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 56):
Actually, I find the opposite to often be true. I find that whenever someone questions the viability of the 380 program, or some aspect of it, such as EK's order, it's the defenders who more often get sarcastic, as in:

[quote=scbriml,reply=17]Dear Mr Astuteman,

Please stop using sense and logic in a thread about Emirates and the A380.

Signed,
The EK/A380 doubters*.

It is OK to make fun of these people. How else should you deal with folks who talk of "Titanic" and "poker games" here?

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 56):
Exactly - but I don't see EK getting Carte Blanche to do that. I don't see EK beng able to control the restrictions that various countries are going to put in place in order to protect their own airlines and alliances.

Yes, see Germany. OTOH, a lot of countries are eager to get (more) EK service, because they know it'll boost their economy. If Germany limits EK to 49 weekly flights forever, they might some day make all flights with the A380.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 56):
So my opinion is; they will not be allowed to continue this world take-over unfettered. However, they seem to be buying A/C with the assumption that that they will be able to utilize them wherever and how ever they want. This is what I don't understand.

I guess they take into their consideration which rights they still have to get and what the chances for that are. Normally, the frequencies and destinations are limited, but not the aircraft size. To increase capacity, bigger aircraft are needed. Smaller aircraft can be given back to the market easier, so the risk is not that big IMHO.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 2175301
Posted 2010-09-10 03:25:31 and read 21624 times.

So, lets think outside the box: Taken to the extreme of what EK wants to do they will need at least 5000 A380's, more likely 10,000, and perhaps a total of 20,000 (and I might be low at that).

This is based on the concept that I will wish to route through Dubai on a flight from Milwaukee to Seattle (or Portland) which I do several times a year.

I am sure that EK's rates will be competitive - if not lower than the competition for such a trip; that people will value the price and A380 experience over other factors.

We'll all want to make a quick weekend trip to vegas and route through Dubai. Imagine the family vacation to Disney Land or Disney World. The kids will be enthralled with expectations of seeing Mickey and Minnie (and other things) that they won't notice the extra day of travel time each way.

Perhaps I have been wrong on my prior assumptions. EK and Dubai are going to be the undisputed owners off virtually all jet travel due to the economics of the A380 and the connivence and friendliness of Dubai. They will squash all other competition. Only regional airlines will survive for short trips such as Green Bay to Chicago or Minneapolis (and back).

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: parapente
Posted 2010-09-10 03:41:58 and read 21453 times.

Replies 16 and 17 say it all.It (as they say) has all been said before.No doubt it will need to be said again - but will equally have no effect.It is the same on one or two other subjects.Some people only want to believe what they believe - whatever the facts are.But this one is probably the very best example.One notes that deep down they "know"- that is why the posts are abusive.They are scared.

As a Brit I know this feeling.From being "masters of the universe" we have had to get used to seeing our global influence disappear over the past 65 years- some might say the last 100 years .In 2 weeks time we may finally see "the end" of British global influence - if our 2 Aircraft Carriers are cancelled and our nuclear deterrent refurb is "postboned".These things don't happen overnight.The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took well over 100 years.

It's not as if these 200 380's/773's are really "new" aircraft at all.They are just the replacements for 200 747's that "other" Airlines "used" to fly.Times change, got to get used to it.We had to.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ash185
Posted 2010-09-10 03:46:43 and read 21356 times.

Is this really that surprising coming from EK, anything they order now is not surprising after what seeing all the orders over the last decade. I would have thought anything less would actually be shocking lol

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Quokka
Posted 2010-09-10 03:57:47 and read 21252 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
since the airport, oil, and airline are all owned by the same entity


The airport and the airline are in fact totally separate companies and operate as such. Ultimate ownership of both is irrelevant. EK is charged the same fees for landing, etc as any other carrier. T3 may be completely EK, along with a lot of space used in T1, but EK has to pay for all that space.
While you may claim the books are closed, the accounts are in fact audited and EK's annual reports are public information.
You may doubt that, but that doubt is as strong as the belief that every other company in the world has three sets of books: one for the shareholders; one for the tax office; and one for the real picture.

As has been stated repeatedly, Dubai does not have plentiful oil and, even if it did, you can not simply dig oil out of the ground and pump it straight into an A380. There is very little refining capacity in the UAE and EK has to import aviation fuel, mainly from Singapore. They buy it from various companies, including Shell and BP. No doubt, according to the oil conspiracy theory, Singapore, Shell, BP and others are only too happy to subsidise EK at the expense of other carriers.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2010-09-10 05:07:47 and read 20479 times.

Quoting Quokka (Reply 68):
The airport and the airline are in fact totally separate companies and operate as such. Ultimate ownership of both is irrelevant. EK is charged the same fees for landing, etc as any other carrier. T3 may be completely EK, along with a lot of space used in T1, but EK has to pay for all that space.
While you may claim the books are closed, the accounts are in fact audited and EK's annual reports are public information.
You may doubt that, but that doubt is as strong as the belief that every other company in the world has three sets of books: one for the shareholders; one for the tax office; and one for the real picture.

As has been stated repeatedly, Dubai does not have plentiful oil and, even if it did, you can not simply dig oil out of the ground and pump it straight into an A380. There is very little refining capacity in the UAE and EK has to import aviation fuel, mainly from Singapore. They buy it from various companies, including Shell and BP. No doubt, according to the oil conspiracy theory, Singapore, Shell, BP and others are only too happy to subsidise EK at the expense of other carriers.

Fantastic post. Welcome to my RU list mate.

People love to slag off EK, and aim all sorts of untrue and unfair accusations at them but the fact is, they are on top because they planned to be, because they are able to run widebodies to marginal destinations profitably.

I think some people think that just because "their" airline cannot do it, then EK cannot and if it is it must be cheating.

They do have some advantages - DXB is a great hub, they do get good rate financing because they can call on parental support if need be, and the standard of living and tax regime in the UAE means they can attract good staff and retain them without breaking the bank.

But for me, none of these advantages give EK an advantage like, for example, the Ch11 rules in the US, where airlines can declare bankruptcy and write off huge portions of their debts. Pretending that somehow EK is "not playing fair" and that everyone else is a victim is deliberately myopic.

Everyone does what they can to get ahead and get an edge - the US majors as much as anyone. Its just that EK is better at it!

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SKAirbus
Posted 2010-09-10 05:21:16 and read 20265 times.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 8):

In Europe cars are already doing that... Volkswagen have engines that can do up to 80 mpg  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ash185
Posted 2010-09-10 05:24:22 and read 20170 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):

Thats spot on!!

Some of the companies may be under a a group and/or owned by the govt but they have a hands off role. AIR NZ had funds injected into by the NZ govt after the Ansett collapse and is the majority owner, but has a completely hands off role.Dubai has very pro-aviation policies and the companies are pushing forward and working together all wanting
to acheive the same thing. The opposite in Europe where there are differing goals, strategies and endless bureaucracy.
It has a location advantage that also is used to advantage to whichever freedom rights they have.
Many large carriers were one owned, started and/or bailed out by govts.
You have to be profitable to pay tax, and if you make losses well that depends on the rules and carrying tax losses forwards.

Competition is good and it (usually) pushes the rivals and brings out the best. If your too weak and inefficient then you should be gone and not being protected. Im just interested to see what happens with Germany and Canada and if EK can push for more rights with the airlines crying as usual. Its good to see Willie Walsh and BA not complaining about EK and just pushing forward with their own strategies.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-10 05:38:31 and read 20026 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
Smoke and mirrors sounds like an intentional forgery. I think Dubai was rather not expecting the magnitude of the GFC. A lot there is built on loans or paid by customers before it is built. When suddenly the customers can't pay what they promised any more, and banks can't give new loans, because they are all impacted by the crises, it is not the fault of the real estate companies, let alone their intention.

What customers? One of the major problems is there are no customers.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
EK doesn't need the "destination" Dubai. They probably have already more than 75% transiting pax. With all the A380s, that might become more than 95%.

They do need DXB, because whereas EK has many advantages, they're still connecting top flow markets that can often be flown nonstop. The more other airlines overfly DXB, the more EK will need a local market to leverage.

Quoting mariner (Reply 63):
The European airlines withdrew from the Kangaroo route rather than compete. Including British - who has extraordinary historical associations with Australia and remarkable traffic rights along the way.

Tags are rarely profitable, especially a longhaul tag following another longhaul. EK doesn't operate anything close to a Kangaroo route since its hub is smack in the middle of the two legs; they have some SE Asia stops on the way to Australia but those are much shorter. HAMJFK was a good example of why that does not work.

Quoting mariner (Reply 63):

There has been nothing stopping British flying long haul from MAN, to anywhere really, including Dubai. Except that they don't, they fly no long haul from MAN, to the bitterness of many of the locals.

That would be like EK starting something out of AUH or FJR. Both BA and EK are concentrating on their hubs because it's the most efficient way to connect their respective networks.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-10 05:47:17 and read 19938 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 54):
Actually, I find the opposite to often be true. I find that whenever someone questions the viability of the 380 program, or some aspect of it, such as EK's order, it's the defenders who more often get sarcastic,

In a parallel universe perhaps.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 62):
It is OK to make fun of these people. How else should you deal with folks who talk of "Titanic" and "poker games" here?

It's never ok to poke fun at A380 doubters on A-net, Thorben. You should know that by now.

Irrespective of the fact that the information presented by me was factually correct in response to those people using the analogies of "poker games" and "titanic".
Yet, factual though it may have been, it becomes sarcasm when used against A380 doubters.

I will readily and happily point to posts which define sarcastic in this thread, posted by said doubters, if people really wish to continue to have this debate.
I suspect it's not necessary, though..  

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2010-09-10 05:51:32 and read 19935 times.

As for the notional EK Requirement for A380s. Let me have a quick work out here:

By 2017/8 - I reckon their A380 schedules might look a bit like this, based on current growth:

LHR 4 x daily
CDG 3 x daily
MAN 2 x daily
LGW 2 x daily
BHX 1 x daily
FRA 2 x daily
AMS 1 x daily
HAM 1 x daily
MXP 2 x daily
ZRH 2 x daily
FCO 1 x daily
DME 1 x daily
ATH 2 x daily
IST 2 x daily
CAI 2 x daily
JED 2 x daily
RUH 2 x daily
JNB 2 x daily
CPT 1 x daily
NBO 1 x daily
LOS 1 x daily
LAD 1 x daily
SIN 2 x daily
BKK 3 x daily
CMB 1 x daily
BOM 3 x daily
DEL 3 x daily
KHI 3 x daily
ISB 1 x daily
KUL 1 x daily
CGK 2 x daily
HKG 2 x daily
ICN 2 x daily
MNL 2 x daily
PEK 2 x daily
PVG 2 x daily
HND 3 x daily
MEL 2 x daily
SYD 3 x daily (inc NZ flights)
PER 1 x daily
BNE 1 x daily
AKL 1 x daily
MLE 1 x daily
YYZ 2 x daily
JFK 3 x daily
ORD 1 x daily
MIA 1 x daily
IAH 1 x daily
SFO 1 x daily
GRU 2 x daily
EZE 1 x daily

I make that about 88 - 92 airframes.

Leaving (Likely) non-A380 services:

MRS
LGW (non A380 frequencies)
BHX (non A380 frequencies)
BFS?
DUB?
NCE
LYS
GVA
DUS
Berlin?
NCL
EDI
LED?
MLA
LCA
Tripoli
Casablanca
ALG
TUN
PHC
Alexandria
Entebbe
Dar es Salaam
Durban
Windhoek?
Mombasa?
ADD
SSH?
Banjul?
Lusaka?
Antanarivo?
Asmera?
Nuakchott?
Freetown?
Douala?
Abidjan?
Dakar?
LPA?
KIN
KWI
MCT
Sanaa
BAH
DOH
Kabul?
Baghdad?
Mosul?
HKT
Tehran
Shiraz?
Yekaterinburg
Tblisi?
Almaty
Yerevan?
Baku?
Damascus
AMM
Izmir?
Minsk?
WAW?
PRG?
Bucharest?
Belgrade?
Mauritius
TRV
HYD
COC
ISB (non A380 frequencies)
LHE
Pune
Bangalore
Dhaka
Rangoon
Seychelles
Kiev?
Oporto?
Lisbon
Sofia?
Hangzhou?
Guangzhou?
Chonqing?
TPE?
Mindanao?
Ho Chi Minh City?
Chaing Mai?
Macau?
Brunei?
BNE (non A380 frequencies)
CHC
PER (non A380 frequencies)
MEL (non A380 frequencies)
NRT
KIX
SFO (non A380 frequencies)
LAX
YVR?
Montreal?
DTW?
DEN?
BOS?
Panama City?
MEX?
BOG?
CCS?
IAH (non A380 frequencies)


So lots of places to fly their 100+ 777s and A350s etc.  

EK obviously think that by 2018 or so they can do A380 ops to some of these above places.

Its amazing to think of how awesomely massive EK are going to be by the end of the decade. They'll be to airlines what Microsoft is to computing or Starbucks is to coffee.

[Edited 2010-09-10 05:55:19]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2010-09-10 06:38:08 and read 19289 times.

Quoting Centre (Reply 26):

What if it was the best airline in the world (DL) that we are talking about here?

As long as they ordered the 748i.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-10 07:31:38 and read 18596 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 68):
But for me, none of these advantages give EK an advantage like, for example, the Ch11 rules in the US, where airlines can declare bankruptcy and write off huge portions of their debts. Pretending that somehow EK is "not playing fair" and that everyone else is a victim is deliberately myopic.

Good point, indeed. Chapter 11 is a very big competitive distortion. Without it, there would be about zero US legacy carriers left.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 71):
What customers? One of the major problems is there are no customers.

For real estate in Dubai? Man, there were times when they had sold every square centimeter in 50-story-buildings before the first brick was laid down.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 71):

They do need DXB, because whereas EK has many advantages, they're still connecting top flow markets that can often be flown nonstop. The more other airlines overfly DXB, the more EK will need a local market to leverage

Non-stop? 17 destinations on the Indian sub-continent and 23 destinations in Europe. Are you aware how many connections that alone makes? And those are by far not all useful connections on EK. Places like HAM or NCL would need 50 or so additional long-haul destinations to offer what EK does with one stop in DXB. Otherwise you would have to go to a European hub, FRA. LHR, CDG, AMS, fly to a hub in the region you want to go to, then fly to your actual destination.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 72):
It's never ok to poke fun at A380 doubters on A-net, Thorben. You should know that by now.

   sorry

Quoting astuteman (Reply 72):
Irrespective of the fact that the information presented by me was factually correct in response to those people using the analogies of "poker games" and "titanic".
Yet, factual though it may have been, it becomes sarcasm when used against A380 doubters.

I will readily and happily point to posts which define sarcastic in this thread, posted by said doubters, if people really wish to continue to have this debate.
I suspect it's not necessary, though..

I know you put a great importance on facts and you often have very good ones. Other won't let facts disturb their opinion. I hope they don't bother you too much.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):

Great post, surely a lot of work.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):
DUS

DUS might sooner or later be upgraded to A380.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: UALWN
Posted 2010-09-10 07:53:07 and read 18303 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):
By 2017/8 - I reckon their A380 schedules might look a bit like this, based on current growth:
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):
Leaving (Likely) non-A380 services:

You are missing Spain from your list. EK already flies to MAD with a daily 332 now. I imagine BCN will be added sooner or later.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2010-09-10 08:09:06 and read 18096 times.

OK i missed Spain - sorry  

MAD
BCN?

Where else have I missed?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-10 08:26:14 and read 17846 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):
Where else have I missed?

Maybe SZX. The region has up to twelve million people living there, might make an interesting destination.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: pylon101
Posted 2010-09-10 08:52:35 and read 17523 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 69):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
EK doesn't need the "destination" Dubai. They probably have already more than 75% transiting pax. With all the A380s, that might become more than 95%.

They do need DXB, because whereas EK has many advantages, they're still connecting top flow markets that can often be flown nonstop. The more other airlines overfly DXB, the more EK will need a local market to leverage.

And this true indeed. We talk a lot about EK in terms of transiting.
But every single office of EK works hard to make people make a stop in Dubai.
And EK employees do excellent work.

Just a few days ago I was arranging plan of my vacation in Thailand.
As I am going with my nephew (another aviation fan) I tried to make it all interesting.
A EK female from MOW office spent 40 minutes with me. She's got the point!
As a result:
1. I have got a 4 leg trip on A345, 2 legs on A380 and B773;
2. 3 nights in Dubai in a good hotel in Deira at $45.00 flat rate a night, including shuttle;
3. Simple on-line application for visa being prepared in advance.

So within 40 minutes - even without planning to stay in Dubai (where I have been for..er..er.. 6 times) - I am staying again.
And I will enjoy it!
So don't tell me it's just about transit. It about every little thing.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-10 09:05:02 and read 17356 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
I'm not going to copy and paste the long list of negatives you've dredged up, but do you really believe that a management as smart as Emirates has shown itself to be has not considered all these things?

These are not to be taken as negatives, yet rather as risks on EK bright promising future.

EK management is certainly aware of quite many of these, but what if more than 4-5 of these risks crystallise at the same time and on a lasting basis?

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
What unfair competition? Or are you suggesting that the European airlines don't know how to compete?

As regards EK, the biggest unfair competitive advantage is labour conditions. And on some transit flows, predatory pricing funded by DXB point-to-point traffic.

But remember that EK's UAE cousin airline, i.e. EY, is way more to blame than EK on those grounds, and that some goverments may fell into the temptation of throwing the baby with the bath's water.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 48):
Pan AM had about 50 747 in 1980, they may have operated 80 different 747 but not 80 at the same time.

And shortly thereafter, they went for 310s, a very sensible decision.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
I do recall that when Singapore first started spreading its wings a lot of people were surprised, scoffed and said it couldn't last.

Dubai's dream is to become the Singapore of the Hong Kong of the Middle East. At this stage, there is still a long way to go.


And this

Quoting mariner (Reply 55):
and its main hub is a vast sandpit with an intolerable climate in a politically volatile part of the world.

is indeed a big disadvantage compared to HKG and SIN, which also enjoy proximity to way higher-density areas than Gulf airports.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
long time ago, Singapore was not a desirable destination, it was a mosquito infested swamp, it did not have the natural advantages of any European city.

Singapore had little to offer in this respect some 40-50 yrs ago, and while the weather there isn't always easy to sustain, it is by no means comparable to the air-conditioned nightmare of Dubai from April to October.

Quoting mariner (Reply 55):
Happily, they had the good sense to build a lot of buildings with good air-conditioning.

Only a very limited solution to the wheather problem.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 51):
With the (slow) return of premium traffic, EK should be able to stay in the black and grow.

Some of that premium traffic may prefer direct flights, especially as new, better products become available on competing airlines, while EK J product is no longer what it used to be, in relative terms.

And if you have a meeting shortly after touching down in HKG, BKK or KUL, while travelling from Europe, better have an undisturbed 12-hr direct flight rather than connect in a Gulf airport at undecent times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 56):
Well, EK has two advantages that cannot be competed against. 1) Their geographic position, and 2) their low costs due to various things we KNOW, and some other things that MAY be true.

I would add round-the-clock operation of DXB vs. curfews at European Airports. Not unfair competitive advantage as such, yet a good asset in the hands of DXB/JXB.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
I imagine very few Jewish people fly with them - and its main hub is a vast sandpit with an intolerable climate in a politically volatile part of the world.

I know some Jews who fly EK. Dubai, to its credit, has a pretty smart policy in this respect, so long as there is no Israeli Passport.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
Perhaps Europe would be happier if Dubai was more like Iraq or Iran?

What do you mean?

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 62):
Any ideas?

Better treatment at T1. Lounges of most European airlines are a bad joke.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
WY and KU aping EK? What makes you think they'll ever try that?

Post-oil diversification strategies.

And also "I-want-the-same-shiny-new-toy-as-my-brother" syndrom. GF just burnt its fingers, but who knows whether KU and WY will resist temptation.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
TK is already growing very fast and might become a serious competitor. IST is not based so well for flights from China to Africa, but it is located better than DXB for flights between Europe and East Asia, Europe and Africa, and Europe and the Middle East (say BEY f.e.). Those seem to be more lucrative markets to me. Problem for TK will be the airport. Unless they get a bigger and better one, they can't do much against EK.

Turkey is now embarking in HSR, which should release capacity at IST.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
CY, ME, RJ, and LY have interesting geographic locations, but they are far far away from competing with EK, even with the help of alliances.

Alliances will partly offset such disadvantage, and may divert some traffic away from the Gulf.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
The Indians I would forget about. EK has 10 destinations in India, 20 or so in Europe and North America (that have a good market to India), all connected with one stop in DXB. How can they ever compete with that?

Expect more flights on Europe-India. Just compare the flights wich AF and KL would operate to China 20 yrs ago, and their current combined network (+ CZ/MU). Not only booming growth can account for that difference, but also the AF-KL merger and CZ+MU joining Skyteam.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 64):
Interesting that you mention KC. Regarding how the new capital city is built, they seem to somewhat be like a gulf country. The natural wealth of Kazakhstan is enormous. TSE/ALA have a good location between Europe and East Asia, but not much to the North. Will be interesting to see if something happens there.

Astana 's nickname is the "Dubai of the Stepp", and as part as post-oil/gas diversifications strategies, I wouldn't be too surprised if KC operated ALA as a Euro-Asian bridge.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 71):
They do need DXB, because whereas EK has many advantages, they're still connecting top flow markets that can often be flown nonstop. The more other airlines overfly DXB, the more EK will need a local market to leverage.

A big minus of EK strategy.

The more dependent you are on other's markets, the more vulnerable you become.

Another limit is EK (and other cousin Gulf airlines) refusal to get entangled in an alliance. Respectable choice, but that leaves a big plus on flying comepting airlines of Europe and Asia, especially in terms of FFPs.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2010-09-10 09:23:09 and read 17083 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
As regards EK, the biggest unfair competitive advantage is labour conditions.

Well, then lets ban all the chinese and indian sub continent airlines.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-10 09:27:14 and read 17084 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
Here we go again. I said this in the last thread somewhat jokingly but it doesn't seem all that far-fetched for EK to simply negotiate exclusive rights to the 380 aircraft itself. They could guarantee a profitable run to Airbus of say 500 frames (e.g. through 2025) in exchange for aircraft exclusivity on the 388 from this point forward, allowing for deliveries of existing orders to other operators. Then demand development the 389 for full exclusivity. I bet Airbus would be sorely tempted by a guaranteed return on the aircraft and 100% standardization of current customization in the production process. And on the Airbus side they can enjoy the leverage of knowing that Clark's insatiable appetite for total domination can also be used against him. And for the EU what better than to know that 380 line jobs are safe and secure for another 15 years. I see a massive win/win brewing here.

On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.

Sounds like great news for Boeing. Which is why it would never happen.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
LH and BA have little hope with their 747s against EK's A380s and 77Ws

Both have A380's coming, BA has 77W's now, and both have/will have 787 and/or A350's. Maybe I missed your point.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 20):
If they have a problem with that, oh dear they must be frightened of competition.

Yes.

Quoting FlyNWA727 (Reply 32):
But PA's decision to purchase such a massive amount of 747s, was the biggest reason they went into financial turmoil.

Without getting into that directly, I will say that was then, this is now. It's a big world.

Quoting Slinky09 (Reply 35):
ANet is full of people who want EK to fail and AB to fail. It's your want ... it's not without a large dose of nationalism either. Most of you probably have sincere views, many are probably xenophobic.

None of you have ever said the same about Ryanair and Boeing methinks.

A.net is full of a lot of things. But please accept that it is possible to disagree without it being xenophobia or A vs B. (Maybe  )

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 53):
So my opinion is; they will not be allowed to continue this world take-over unfettered. However, they seem to be buying A/C with the assumption that that they will be able to utilize them wherever and how ever they want. This is what I don't understand.

They buy big aircraft to make big money (cash). They use big money (cash) to buy big competitor. They use new larger carrier to fill big aircraft (cash). They use big money (cash) to buy another big compeitor. Repeat.

Can't happen? I beg to differ.........

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 53):
Well, EK has two advantages that cannot be competed against. 1) Their geographic position

Boo hoo. EK had to find a way to compete with the established carriers. They can find a way to compete, too. That's why it's called competition. Perhaps I am reading too much into what you are saying, but I don't think geographic location is unfair in any stretch of the imagination. Inconvenient for your competitors? you bet.

Quoting mariner (Reply 54):
Happily, they had the good sense to build a lot of buildings with good air-conditioning.

LOL

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
Its amazing to think of how awesomely massive EK are going to be by the end of the decade. They'll be to airlines what Microsoft is to computing or Starbucks is to coffee.

So then why no SEA on your list, hmmmmm?  
Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
Some of that premium traffic may prefer direct flights, especially as new, better products become available on competing airlines, while EK J product is no longer what it used to be, in relative terms.

Well, according to some they have access to unlimited funds. They'll just introduce an all new J product......right?

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
Perhaps Europe would be happier if Dubai was more like Iraq or Iran?

What do you mean?

It would be more convenient for the European (and other) carriers if Dubai was a war-torn wasteland and not a vibrant, competive hub/destination.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-10 10:05:32 and read 16595 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 75):
Man, there were times when they had sold every square centimeter in 50-story-buildings before the first brick was laid down.

The operative word here being "were". Tons of internet boom IPOs were snapped up faster than you could blink and that proved nothing but a prelude to total disaster. Same with the housing boom, which DXB is also currently experiencing.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 71):
Non-stop? 17 destinations on the Indian sub-continent and 23 destinations in Europe. Are you aware how many connections that alone makes?

India has a half dozen carriers growing like weeds, with more close behind them. Turkey and Egypt also have airlines with renewed and growing focus on both local and transit traffic. It wouldn't take much to launch the top 10-20 EK flow markets, and apply downward fare pressure on many of the rest. If IR ever gets its act together, there would go a good 5-10 top flow markets for EK.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
The more dependent you are on other's markets, the more vulnerable you become.

  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: tistpaa727
Posted 2010-09-10 10:07:27 and read 16578 times.

I'm a little late to this thread, but my goodness....here we go again with the mudslinging...

My take on the situation is this...if EK thinks they can fill the planes, they will order them. As CHRISBA777ER points out in his impressive post, there are plenty of potential routes to fill 90 A380s and 100+ 777/350. Now, if the economy does not fully recover or we go into another slide, EK will, like any other airline/business, re-evaluate their needs and defer orders. Considering how loyal EK has been, I am sure Airbus will not throw a fit. They won't be happy, but the production slots will remain. (Same goes for Boeing if EK orders more Boeing planes).

Tim Clark, etc does not want to drive EK into the ground (opinion), they want to make money and will do what is sensible for the airline. I agree with the comment about free PR. By bringing this topic up and associating yourself with the A380 you force reporters to bring up the fact that this is the largest plane in the world, this article refers to it as a superjumbo, which means even the normal person will have an understanding of what this is. Also, if you talk about your growth and the demand by international travelers to want to fly on your airline, you make others ask, "why is that? price, service?" Great PR coup, again, by Tim Clark.

Also, my understanding is Dubai is still trying to establish itself as a worldwide/renown tourist destination so that when oil is no longer there, there is a business already set up and in place. Its like athletes having a back up plan and actually finishing college before they are drafted. Couple this with the fact they want Dubai to also be a stop over point on someone's journey and you have a solid foundation for the business.

As for their expansion, nationalism I think will play a role in some countries as far as what EK does to their national airline but I also believe the fears are being sensationalized on this forum. At some point in EK's expansion I would imagine they have to hit the law of diminishing returns. Sometimes, companies can get too big. Is that when they have 90 380s and even more 777/350? Who knows. Maybe it's double that size. The bean counters will surely spot it before they hit it.

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
They could guarantee a profitable run to Airbus of say 500 frames (e.g. through 2025) in exchange for aircraft exclusivity on the 388 from this point forward, allowing for deliveries of existing orders to other operators. Then demand development the 389 for full exclusivity.

I think lightsaber summed it up well. In addition to his list, I think they would also tick off several customers who would want the 380. Unless you're MOL, I imagine Airbus wants to talk to you.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 65):
In Europe cars are already doing that... Volkswagen have engines that can do up to 80 mpg

Damn US pride relegates us to the granola, completely unattractive Prius if we want decent mileage. If we had a tax on fuel like European countries do, we would have decent mileage too but the bonehead lobbyist for the cheap auto manufacturers here keep that from happening. But I digress, that's for another forum.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
Its amazing to think of how awesomely massive EK are going to be by the end of the decade. They'll be to airlines what Microsoft is to computing or Starbucks is to coffee.

No kidding. Keep in mind, Microsoft and Starbucks have been hit pretty hard. Getting that big put a big target on Microsoft's back and Starbucks grew too rapidly, got caught by the GFC and had to close 300 stores, layoff thousands.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
(Sorry, I'm too tired to do a proper google, see my new signature.)

Congrats!!!!!

Regarding the sarcasm on topics such as this...let's all remember it goes both ways and it is about how something is said. The written word does not come with tone and people tend to read statements (or facts) with their own tone injected which gets them heated up. Let's try to stay civil and where possible say something is your opinion. For the most part, I believe we are all grown-ups, let's act like it.

--- It's all good! ---

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-10 10:10:25 and read 16524 times.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 80):
Regarding the sarcasm on topics such as this...let's all remember it goes both ways and it is about how something is said. The written word does not come with tone and people tend to read statements (or facts) with their own tone injected which gets them heated up. Let's try to stay civil and where possible say something is your opinion. For the most part, I believe we are all grown-ups, let's act like it.

Very true, and something I need to coach myself on at times.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: A342
Posted 2010-09-10 10:32:17 and read 16410 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 73):
Where else have I missed?

Maybe MUC. After all, it's the seventh largest airport in Europe and one of EK's two daily flights is operated by 77Ws or 773s. If they can't get more traffic rights to Germany, the afternoon departure to DXB is a strong candidate for the A380. The airport itself is perfectly ready, they'd only need an adapted gate at Terminal 1.

Just my   

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: wingman
Posted 2010-09-10 11:01:27 and read 16290 times.

My comments are still mostly food for thought but the reality is that if EK doubles up to 180 firm orders in the 2-3 years it almost becomes a de facto type monopoly doesn't it? Someone suggested the answer to this would for everyone to also double up their orders but I'm sorry, that would lead to catastrophic oversupply. And outside of that there is simply no way for 30-40 EK competitors to coordinate their 380 route planning responses (aside from that activity being illegal of course). So just like I said in the same thread before this one, EK is already planning for some 700% growth in this type and Clark is now suggesting, I don't know, maybe a doubling of the order?? Several posters are quick to point out that EK is also dropping widebodies very quickly on the back-end so that all of these new aircraft do not really add up to illogical growth forecasts. But any way you cut it EK's model, if it bears out as expected by them at least, will result directly in the either the destruction of most EU national carriers for long haul services or a massive reorganization of AF, LH and BA into one or possibly two mega EU carriers. I just don't see how the existing model would be able to survive an EK with 300+ widebodies, even if it includes flooding the second hand market with 8-10 year old 777s and 330s. It does not compute.

I'm pretty sure if you cornered an LH, BA or AF exec in the corner of the bar they'd be weeping into their beers. SIA and QF will always at least have some kind of monopoly on OD traffic in Asia and to the US to save their tiny hides.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-10 11:51:52 and read 16157 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 67):
Tags are rarely profitable, especially a longhaul tag following another longhaul.

Why they withdrew is not the point. They withdrew.

And are now complaining about the success of another airline that filled in the gap.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 67):
That would be like EK starting something out of AUH or FJR. Both BA and EK are concentrating on their hubs because it's the most efficient way to connect their respective networks.

What major city in the US do the US legacy carriers not serve?

British decided to become London Airways, fine. But I think it is churlish to dump on the airline that filled the gap.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
I know some Jews who fly EK. Dubai, to its credit, has a pretty smart policy in this respect, so long as there is no Israeli Passport.

I'm sure there are a few, but many, many more that will not.

When Emirates first started to New Zealand, a Kiwi Jew booked on them and told his travel agent he wanted a kosher meal. Of course, he didn't get it and so he complained vociferously to the local press about discrimination and got quite a lot of headlines.

I love his chutzpah - that's why he did it - but the point remains - if you want a kosher meal, why would you fly Emirates?

 

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-10 11:57:42]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-10 12:22:00 and read 16067 times.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 77):
Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
As regards EK, the biggest unfair competitive advantage is labour conditions.

Well, then lets ban all the chinese and indian sub continent airlines.

How have conditions on Chinese and India majors changed in the past 20yrs, compared to EK?

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
Quoting SR4ever (Reply 76):
Some of that premium traffic may prefer direct flights, especially as new, better products become available on competing airlines, while EK J product is no longer what it used to be, in relative terms.

Well, according to some they have access to unlimited funds. They'll just introduce an all new J product......right?

No worries in terms of hard product, although this isn't too much consistent at the moment.

Soft product may be a problem, as one can see now.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
It would be more convenient for the European (and other) carriers if Dubai was a war-torn wasteland and not a vibrant, competive hub/destination.

None with common sense can ever wish that, really.

Let there be no mistake: I enjoy quite much Dubai as a destination and wish them luck to recover from the GFC and make their ambitious dreams become a reality.

Same for EK, which has built something quite commendable from scratch. I just deplore the downsides of their growth in the past 5-10yrs on their product quality and consistency, and fear that their future plans might be a tad too much.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: FlyNWA727
Posted 2010-09-10 12:27:42 and read 16033 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
I will say that was then, this is now.

So, what does that mean, exactly? Are you saying that history repeating its self is an impossibility?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-10 12:34:06 and read 16030 times.

Quoting parapente (Reply 61):
As a Brit I know this feeling.From being "masters of the universe" we have had to get used to seeing our global influence disappear over the past 65 years- some might say the last 100 years .In 2 weeks time we may finally see "the end" of British global influence - if our 2 Aircraft Carriers are cancelled and our nuclear deterrent refurb is "postboned".These things don't happen overnight.The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took well over 100 years.

  

The shift in the paradigm. Good post.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Flighty
Posted 2010-09-10 12:34:45 and read 16016 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 71):
Good point, indeed. Chapter 11 is a very big competitive distortion. Without it, there would be about zero US legacy carriers left.

IMO, yes and no. We have fewer competitive distortions than most other countries (check unbiased "economic freedom" rankings).

Chap 11 has preserved value (without government assistance in most cases). Society is better off when productive assets can be reorganized under new private ownership, __IF__ those private parties feel such an investment is worthwhile. It's not a competitive distortion in the sense of public subsidies. This is a private issue. It is not a government action, it is simply a law. If a company (say American Airlines) wishes to bid for a bankrupt carrier's assets, they are free to make that bid. Otherwise, another party is free to do so. This is all in a bid to satisfy creditors, who deserve that avenue.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ElbowRoom
Posted 2010-09-10 13:26:36 and read 15857 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 83):
But any way you cut it EK's model, if it bears out as expected by them at least, will result directly in the either the destruction of most EU national carriers for long haul services


But if you think about it, there are many routes from EU capitals where Emirates doesn't and will not in the forseeable future offer a competitive service, simply due to geography:
- EU to N and S America, makes no sense via Dubai
- EU to Russia/CIS and EU to EU, that's 500million people within EU and 275million in CIS

...and there are many other routes from the EU where Dubai will only offer a 1 stop service against the EU carriers' direct services:
- China
- most of rest of Asia
- Africa
...so we can expect carriers like EK and the EU-based carriers to share the market, with the EU-based carriers taking a lot of the premium traffic.


In fact the only routes I can think of where EK faces a level playing field with EU based carriers in terms of the number of stops required are:
- Kangaroo route, because even an EU-based carrier must make 1 stop due to the length
- and routes from regional airports in the EU... there has been a lot of interesting discussion on here about whether BA had to forfeit the traffic from MAN to EK rather than having their own hub at MAN, but the way it has turned out BA has chosen to leave it to EK (and to the US airlines on Transatlantic)... by contrast LH operates multiple long-haul hubs in Germany, although AF seems to operate most (all?) long-haul out of Paris, taking a similar centralised approach to BA.

Of course, EK has other advantages on its side, including lower labour costs, but these do not allow it to offer competitive service in all the markets above, only in some of them.

With the A380 EK is buying itself a further advantage in terms of seat mile costs, but as the EU airlines start to take their 787s and A350s (assuming they get on and order some more of them!) they stand a chance of getting even on that count.

EK is not, therefore, heading for world domination, but instead is serving a complementary set of parts of the global network, just as do BA, AA, AF/KLM, LH group, etc. That's my take anyway.

[Edited 2010-09-10 13:36:07]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-10 13:55:48 and read 15781 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 56):
Looks as if it'll have six runways. Jeeesh...

That was the original plan. I'm hearing enough noise to believe they will cut to 5 runways.
They *only* need to be big enough to make AUH and DOH look tiny.  
Quoting mariner (Reply 58):
There has been nothing stopping British flying long haul from MAN, to anywhere really, including Dubai. Except that they don't, they fly no long haul from MAN, to the bitterness of many of the locals.

  

I wish I was more awake to create a BHX vs. MAN debate. For some reason those debates amuse me to no end...  
Quoting Thorben (Reply 59):
Yes, see Germany. OTOH, a lot of countries are eager to get (more) EK service, because they know it'll boost their economy. If Germany limits EK to 49 weekly flights forever, they might some day make all flights with the A380.

I wonder what will happen with EK and Germany. I personally see benefit to German economic growth to let EK carry business people from their cities to Dubai.

Personally, I see excellent profit for Air Berlin if they were to utilize under-utilized the German side of the bilateral. A code-share between Air Berlin from the new BER-DXB would be win-win for both. Not ideal for EK, but about as good as it gets for now.

Does Air Berlin have any long-haul presence at STG? That being the other destination EK would like to serve in Germany.

Quoting Quokka (Reply 63):
As has been stated repeatedly, Dubai does not have plentiful oil and, even if it did, you can not simply dig oil out of the ground and pump it straight into an A380. There is very little refining capacity in the UAE and EK has to import aviation fuel, mainly from Singapore.

Doesn't Dubai make great cash processing oil for Iran? I believe Dubai makes quite a pretty penny doing that...

But you are correct, the oil produced by Dubai is tiny.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 68):
In a parallel universe perhaps.

   Nice comeback. I have a feeling many wish they were in a parallel universe with no EK.  
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
y 2017/8 - I reckon their A380 schedules might look a bit like this, based on current growth:

  

First, nice work. Well done. I agree with most of your points. Including 4X to LHR. So before reading on, understand I agree with 95% of what you wrote:


Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
CDG 3 x daily

Isn't EK's rights limited to 2X daily? Note I'm asking.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
BOM 3 x daily
DEL 3 x daily

I have only heard about resistance to EK being granted more rights to India. I was shocked to find out they were capped with frequency and weekly seats.  

also, BOM is one of the few major airports out there that should be seeing the A380 but is not yet A380 ready.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
SFO (non A380 frequencies)

I expect, due to all the costs of ULH, that SFO will be all A380 as soon as feasible. Heck, it would be all A380 if EK's outfitting on their A380's wasn't so heavy. (Two tons of water for the showers?!?)    Yea... cut to one ton now....

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 80):
Unless you're MOL, I imagine Airbus wants to talk to you.

   Nice summary. I thank you for the compliment and congrats.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 80):
No kidding. Keep in mind, Microsoft and Starbucks have been hit pretty hard. Getting that big put a big target on Microsoft's back and Starbucks grew too rapidly, got caught by the GFC and had to close 300 stores, layoff thousands.

and while Microsoft and Starbucks are not doing as well as before, they certainly have built up enough of a presence to survive any downturn.

Quoting A342 (Reply 82):
Maybe MUC.

I concur.

Quoting ElbowRoom (Reply 89):
But if you think about it, there are many routes from EU capitals where Emirates doesn't and will not in the forseeable future offer a competitive service, simply due to geography:

For your examples? True. But there are many European cities yet to be served that would benefit from better international connections through DXB.

It will be interesting to see how EK's route map expands. I expect they will add many new cities with A330's/A350's and 777's that will transfer to A380's. While I believe in 'point to point,' the vast majority of long haul flights will have a hub at one end. To keep the flights profitable, a fraction of the seats will need to be connections. That doesn't mean we won't see STG/BOS/BLR or other major non-hub cities with 787 service to non-hubs. What I mean is that 85% plus will have a hub at one end.

So EK will see margins cut on certain routes.    They'll find a good business in secondary city to primary (or secondary) city.  

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2010-09-10 14:18:32 and read 15672 times.

There was a 10 or 15 minute TV news report on the major Gulf carriers an hour or so ago (forget whether it was BBC, CNBC or Bloomberg), It included interviews of both the EK and EY CEOs.

One point made was that 2 billion people (about 30% of the world's population) live within 4 hours flying time of the major Gulf hubs.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-09-10 14:33:01 and read 15622 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 84):
Why they withdrew is not the point. They withdrew.

And are now complaining about the success of another airline that filled in the gap.

They withdrew long before EK. EK could no more sustain a kangaroo route of its own than most European or Aus./NZ carriers; it happens to be one of the few carriers where each segment is a segment to their hub. Although I find it hard to believe that any carrier other than QF is worried about the kangaroo route first and foremost with respect to EK.

Quoting mariner (Reply 84):
British decided to become London Airways, fine. But I think it is churlish to dump on the airline that filled the gap.

Either way in most cases you have to stop in another location (ie LHR or DXB) before reaching your destination, so all things being equal, it's immaterial whether you choose EK or BA. Therefore EK competes mostly on costs which BA cannot match for a multitude of reasons, which the latter feels is unfair. They might have a point.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2010-09-10 14:36:54 and read 15611 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
y 2017/8 - I reckon their A380 schedules might look a bit like this, based on current growth:

  

First, nice work. Well done. I agree with most of your points. Including 4X to LHR. So before reading on, understand I agree with 95% of what you wrote:

Thanks   can't believe you feel the need to justify yourself - am I that argumentative?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
CDG 3 x daily

Isn't EK's rights limited to 2X daily? Note I'm asking.

I'd be tremendously surprised if they did not get more slots - playing the devils advocate here but if EK were to ask for another slot pair at CDG or even ORY say, if they had an order for eighty A3510s and A389s etc waiting to be signed, I would think EADS would be calling in some important favours of some important folks in the French Government.


Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
BOM 3 x daily
DEL 3 x daily

I have only heard about resistance to EK being granted more rights to India. I was shocked to find out they were capped with frequency and weekly seats.  

also, BOM is one of the few major airports out there that should be seeing the A380 but is not yet A380 ready.

Yes, but this is brinkmanship by the Indian Government. EK will get more slots, as all they have to do is offer an open skies deal with the UAE to the Indian government and hey presto.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
SFO (non A380 frequencies)

I expect, due to all the costs of ULH, that SFO will be all A380 as soon as feasible. Heck, it would be all A380 if EK's outfitting on their A380's wasn't so heavy. (Two tons of water for the showers?!?)    Yea... cut to one ton now....

It's a gimmick. I'm one of these people who thinks the second tranche of high density birds will be delivered quietly without them and the rest will have them removed in the next few years. Two tonnes of water? That's a lot of fuel they could be taking! The A380's numbers are so good that two tonnes of water is cost effective! Crazy really.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-10 14:46:26 and read 15576 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 69):
MAN 2 x daily

My only quibble is that you'd get very short odds at bookies for a 3rd MAN flight by the middle of next year (given the ridiculously high loads so far experienced on the A380 currently including the premium cabins) using a 3 class 77W, and a 4th service by 2014/2015. That one of those will metamorphose into being A380 is not beyond the realms of possilbilty given the 2017/2018 timeframe you're talking about

[Edited 2010-09-10 15:02:30]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: CHRISBA777ER
Posted 2010-09-10 14:57:43 and read 15591 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 94):



Thing is Birmingham will go A380 and I don't think GLA will be far behind, but MAN going three times a day A380 - by 2017 I'd give you evens. Certainly a great chance.

Crazy to think about it isn't it - Manchester getting three A380 daily!!! Surprises me how many people hate EK given how much the secondary airportsin Uk owe them for having the vision and the balls to bet cold hard cash on making their routes work. People talk about the A380 as being far too big for this and that and a dinosaur etc that should never gave been built, and that no US carrier will ever order them, and EK may end up flying twelve of them to the UK every day. Blows my mind it reallly does.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-10 16:35:05 and read 15360 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 92):
They withdrew long before EK. EK could no more sustain a kangaroo route of its own than most European or Aus./NZ carriers; it happens to be one of the few carriers where each segment is a segment to their hub. Although I find it hard to believe that any carrier other than QF is worried about the kangaroo route first and foremost with respect to EK.

I'm not arguing any of that.

My point is only that it seems churlish - and more than somewhat unfair - to dump on Emirates, as has happened, for successfully flying the route.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 92):
Either way in most cases you have to stop in another location (ie LHR or DXB) before reaching your destination, so all things being equal, it's immaterial whether you choose EK or BA. Therefore EK competes mostly on costs which BA cannot match for a multitude of reasons, which the latter feels is unfair. They might have a point.

Same again. British chooses not to fly long haul from MAN, for whatever reason - fine. Emirates does it successfully - equally fine.

And someone else has suggested that British may be the airline complaining least about the competition with Emirates.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-10 17:02:11 and read 15336 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 92):
Either way in most cases you have to stop in another location (ie LHR or DXB) before reaching your destination, so all things being equal, it's immaterial whether you choose EK or BA. Therefore EK competes mostly on costs which BA cannot match for a multitude of reasons,
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 93):
can't believe you feel the need to justify yourself - am I that argumentative?

Not at all! But before I say I disagree on this and that, I wanted to point out we were basically fully in agreement.  
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 93):
I'd be tremendously surprised if they did not get more slots - playing the devils advocate here but if EK were to ask for another slot pair at CDG or even ORY say

Recently rejected with statements indicating EK eill gain zero additional right to CDG and ORY.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/59136...es-expansion-plans-unnerves-rivals

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 93):
The A380's numbers are so good that two tonnes of water is cost effective! Crazy really.

It is, but the marketing has been worth it (for EK). EK could be flying DXB-SFO today if their cabin outfitting was lighter (it isn't just the showers by any means, that is just one aspect that is easy to illustrate). I think ULH will go to the A388 as quick as it can. EA is cutting the fuel burn on the GP7200 and Airbus will improve the A380 (both lightening and aerodynamic improvements). I would be shocked if by 2014 SFO and JFK were not exclusively A380's. Probably multiple flights per day too!    I'm being lazy, but somewhere Clark was quoted as saying it takes 2.5 aircraft to enable each North America flight. If IAH and LAX plus a new city (or maybe just frequencies) were to be added, I easily see 20 to 30 A388's utilized to the Americas (North, South, and Central).

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 95):
Manchester getting three A380 daily!!!

That is amazing. How is the premium yield at MAN. Personally, I see MAN going 3X A380 with two of them being two class A388's. Then again, I'm still waiting for the EK 2-class A380 to arrive. My opinion is that configuration (e.g., to Pakistan) will be the major game changer for the region. A game changer (that requires the new concourse) that EY and QR will have trouble adapting to...

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2010-09-10 18:47:33 and read 15206 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 92):
I find it hard to believe that any carrier other than QF is worried about the kangaroo route first and foremost with respect to EK.

Absolutely. Hell, BA are the only other airline on the Kangaroo route, and they are hardly dependent on it.

The simple fact is that EK, EY and SQ can carry passengers from MAN to DXB/AUH/SIN from where SOME will connect to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER while many more will go to HKG/BKK, India etc.

The same thing at the other end: they can fly from SYD/MEL/PER/BNE to DXB/AUH/SIN and from where SOME will go to MAN, others to ATH, FRA, CDG and just about anywhere else. Let's be optimistic and say that 25% of a 380 from MAN-DXB and DXB-SYD is MAN-SYD traffic, that's still - what - 125 passengers a day??? The only way QF and BA could ever compete would be to fly 3 weekly, for example, which would never be competitive with multiple daily departures.


THIS is the beauty of the DXB hub over non-stop flights, especially to secondary markets.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 328JET
Posted 2010-09-10 23:11:05 and read 14948 times.

I do see a problem with that 90 A380s or more , but not for Airbus or Emirates.


Emirates is very clever in ordering so many A380s that virtually all delivery positions for other airlines are blocked.


That means, fewer than expected follow-on orders and for sure, less NEW customers for the A380.

Until Airbus is not able to produce more than 40 A380/year Emirates will have a huge advantage over their competitors.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-10 23:35:50 and read 14887 times.

Quoting FlyNWA727 (Reply 86):
So, what does that mean, exactly? Are you saying that history repeating its self is an impossibility?

Not at all. I'm saying that for Pan Am, the 747s were simply too much airplane for their network, at least in large quantities. But the world has gotten more crowded and people are traveling much more across the globe than back then. Having multiple A380's today is not the same as having multiple 747's back then, and Emirates today is really nothing like Pan Am of then (as far as I can tell).

That's what I meant by my statement.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: pylon101
Posted 2010-09-11 01:42:28 and read 14728 times.

Talking about PANAM we can't forget a crowd of B-727-200 that filled those 747s.
In Europe PA had basically 2 hubs: FRA and LHR - and 2 dozens of 727 destinations.
I still remember PA Boeing-727 in the 80ies which flew FRA-SVO-LED-SVO - and then "slept" a night at SVO, covered by snow. It was a symbol of a free world by then.
It was a global business scheme - so sorry it didn't work out. Though it existed for more than 20 years.

I guess that "FlyDubai" will copy this scheme to some extend - in 20 years and in new environment.

CHRISBA777300 gave us here in Moscow 1 daily A-380 - it is not enough.
Today we have 773 + 345/777 twice a day. Please reconsider, sir.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: gemuser
Posted 2010-09-11 01:55:45 and read 14734 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 99):

Emirates is very clever in ordering so many A380s that virtually all delivery positions for other airlines are blocked.

Source? I find it hard to believe that Airbus would set deliveries up that way or that EK would want deliveries at 4 a month. 25 to 50% of the production line capacity, yes that I would believe.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 328JET
Posted 2010-09-11 02:32:06 and read 14667 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 102):
Source? I find it hard to believe that Airbus would set deliveries up that way or that EK would want deliveries at 4 a month. 25 to 50% of the production line capacity, yes that I would believe.

All 90 Airbus A380 will be delivered until 2017:


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...seals-another-huge-a380-order.html

78 A388 for EK are still to be delivered in 7 years and three month from now.
Makes 0,9 deliveries a month until the end of 2017.
The average goal from Airbus is 2,5-3,5 A380/month.

In the moment another 120 A388 from the other customers need to be delivered until 2017.

That makes a total of 2,36 deliveries/month which Airbus in the moment is not able to achieve!!!


Conclusion:

Without new orders from EK or others the assembly line is already reaching its limits.

Airbus has to increase the production rate to allow follow-on and new orders.
Otherwise EK will buy another 10-15 A388 and block the complete delivery positions.

And you can be sure that Airbus does not care to whom they are selling their Super-Jumbo.

[Edited 2010-09-11 02:33:13]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-11 02:51:53 and read 14643 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 102):
I find it hard to believe that Airbus would set deliveries up that way or that EK would want deliveries at 4 a month. 25 to 50% of the production line capacity, yes that I would believe.

As 328JET showed, Emirates will basically be taking 1 A380 per month for 6 years. I believe they actually have a short hiatus in deliveries in the second half of 2011..

Quoting 328JET (Reply 103):
That makes a total of 2,36 deliveries/month.

Airbus will almost certainly be at a continuous 3 per month by the end of 2011.
At that rate they have the capacity to deliver about 220-230 more A380's between now and the end of 2017 (I assume 3 per month equates to around 30 per year" )
Where they go to beyond that?
Who knows.

But that would only leave about 30 free slots between now and the end of 2017
It's fairly easy to see why a ramp-up in production needs to be up there on the agenda  

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: epa001
Posted 2010-09-11 03:17:22 and read 14550 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 104):
But that would only leave about 30 free slots between now and the end of 2017
It's fairly easy to see why a ramp-up in production needs to be up there on the agenda


We all know they are working hard on achieving this. But the production increase has proven to be a lot harder then they originally anticipated. I believe they want to reach 30 deliveries in 2011. The production rate is climbing so let's hope they will reach that number. And in 2012-2013 they should reach 35-40 per year. That is still a tough mark to reach, but it is also a nice challenge.  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-11 10:29:23 and read 13996 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 98):
Let's be optimistic and say that 25% of a 380 from MAN-DXB and DXB-SYD is MAN-SYD traffic, that's still - what - 125 passengers a day???

If the A380 on EK17/18 is generating about 1000 passengers a day and the 77W on the EK19/20 is generating 800 passengers a day, then wiith the optimistic 25% connecting at DXB to/from SYD, we're talkng 450 passengers per day. It starts encroaching on the Jetstar viability question and if they'd go after it (especially factoring in taking some SQ, QR & EY feed) as some think it would dilute QF at LHR. Then there's the 3rd daily service to start next year that can contribute another decent chunk of passengers through DXB to SYD.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 97):
That is amazing. How is the premium yield at MAN

I've referenced in MAN news 39 (post 69) that EK have reported good take up of F class. Plus a very reliable source has claimed that some 35% of EK's F class passengers at LHR are actually from Northwest England. Now that the same F class is available ex-MAN, there's no need for them to use LHR. Good job there's no premium demand from the regions!
______

Does anyone have any inkling of what the breakdown of the 3 configurations that EK will have in the 1st batch of 90 as i'm sure that most of them are going to be of the 517 seat variety with only abourt 20 being the 489 seater and perhaps 25 for the 644 seats

[Edited 2010-09-11 11:22:27]

[Edited 2010-09-11 11:22:47]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-11 10:55:35 and read 13908 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 103):
And you can be sure that Airbus does not care to whom they are selling their Super-Jumbo.

Perhaps, but if they only have a limited number of slots left, then do you really think that they would prefer to sell them to the company paying the least, or do you think they'd prefer to sell them to someone paying much closer to list prices?

It isn't a garage sale. They NEED to make as much as possible on those remaining frames, and I sincerely doubt that EK is paying more than almost any other buyer.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 104):
It's fairly easy to see why a ramp-up in production needs to be up there on the agenda

I didn't think they were that tight on capacity that far out. I need to pay attention to these threads more.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Quokka
Posted 2010-09-11 11:00:37 and read 13887 times.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 64):
Welcome to my RU list mate.


Thank you very much for your vote of confidence. I hope that I earn it.
Best wishes, Roy

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 92):
so all things being equal, it's immaterial whether you choose EK or BA.


Sure, all things being equal. But in the world of aviation they often aren't. If I fly from PER to LHR I will factor in cost, times of departure and arrival, length of sectors, how long I need to hang around at transfer airports, class of travel, etc.
It may not be typical, but EK are the only carrier offering F from PER. They also throw in complimentary chauffeur drive to/ from the airport. In some instances their arrival time is more convenient for hotel check-in times...
SQ offer shorter connection times for some flights and at certain times more frequent departures. BA? Who are they? They stopped servicing PER years ago. You can code-share but you'll fly QF.
Yes, it comes down to preferences but I would hardly argue that such choices are immaterial.

[Edited 2010-09-11 11:45:07]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-11 11:19:13 and read 13872 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 104):
Airbus will almost certainly be at a continuous 3 per month by the end of 2011.

  

Finally, a reasonable number of A380 per month!  
Quoting astuteman (Reply 104):
But that would only leave about 30 free slots between now and the end of 2017
It's fairly easy to see why a ramp-up in production needs to be up there on the agenda  

  
It will be interesting to watch the ramb up rate.

Quoting epa001 (Reply 105):
But the production increase has proven to be a lot harder then they originally anticipated. I believe they want to reach 30 deliveries in 2011. The production rate is climbing so let's hope they will reach that number. And in 2012-2013 they should reach 35-40 per year. That is still a tough mark to reach, but it is also a nice challenge.

Well said. All true. Albeit, I see reaching 45 per year after your timeline (2014? 2015?)

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-11 11:32:49 and read 13837 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 107):
It isn't a garage sale. They NEED to make as much as possible on those remaining frames, and I sincerely doubt that EK is paying more than almost any other buyer.

   Except I would bet SQ has lower cost options than EK... But otherwise I agree.

Do not forget that a faster rate of production will produce airframes at a lower cost per airframe.  
So there are multiple reasons why Airbus needs to increase the production rate.  

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-11 12:43:12 and read 13695 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 107):
I didn't think they were that tight on capacity that far out. I need to pay attention to these threads more.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that short supply has crippled A380 sales over the last 5 years in exactly the same way as it also obviously has 787 sales over the last 3 years.

It has been suggested (on this thread no less) that this is an aircraft that airlines don't actually want, (with the exception of EK of course), and this is the real reason for the "slow" sales to date.
Easing of supply would if nothing else settle that argument once and for all..

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: kaitak
Posted 2010-09-11 12:56:01 and read 13662 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 111):
It has been suggested (on this thread no less) that this is an aircraft that airlines don't actually want, (with the exception of EK of course), and this is the real reason for the "slow" sales to date.
Easing of supply would if nothing else settle that argument once and for all..

Some airlines, like ANA, may not want it (although it would not surprise me if they were to move in the direction of the 380 later on), BUT I think that many others will, particularly as they see (a) the increasing maintenance costs of their fleet of 20+ year old 744s, (b) the passenger attraction of the A380 operated by their competitors and (c) the need for a product that will offer them long term growth solutions.

There are plenty of airlines in this category still and of course they can choose the 77W or A350-1000, shoehorning 10 abreast into a 77W (as KLM does), but really, that's just a stopgap. The 748I is - and I hate to say this, being a great admirer of the 747 - as good as dead; the A380 is really the only option going forward.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-11 13:07:13 and read 13620 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):
Except I would bet SQ has lower cost options than EK... But otherwise I agree.

Im sure you're right. I was sticking my neck out a bit on that statement, but felt it was essentially accurate. Between those two, I can't imagine others paying much if any less, and likely substantially more.  
Quoting astuteman (Reply 111):
It has been suggested (on this thread no less) that this is an aircraft that airlines don't actually want, (with the exception of EK of course), and this is the real reason for the "slow" sales to date.
Easing of supply would if nothing else settle that argument once and for all..

I don't know if they "want" it or not, but the only option for anything larger than a 773ER is the poor-selling 747-8i. Clearly, the A380 is the future VLA workhorse for carriers, so the only things that could be holding them back from ordering more is the GFC/reduced demand, price, or delivery slots (the latter two likely inextricably linked). More slots will allow for more price elasticity at Airbus, creating more demand.

They definitely need to up the production rate, less the 748i gain a little traction or the 773ER be given more sales (leading to more time to design an upgrade/replacement for Boeing).

Airbus would be best served by keeping the heat on Boeing - they need the A380s pumping out faster to achieve that goal.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: EPA001
Posted 2010-09-11 13:59:41 and read 13522 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 109):
Quoting epa001 (Reply 105):
But the production increase has proven to be a lot harder then they originally anticipated. I believe they want to reach 30 deliveries in 2011. The production rate is climbing so let's hope they will reach that number. And in 2012-2013 they should reach 35-40 per year. That is still a tough mark to reach, but it is also a nice challenge.

Well said. All true. Albeit, I see reaching 45 per year after your timeline (2014? 2015?)


That is my fear as well.   But that is also why I wrote that achieving 35-40 in 2013 is quite a challenge. That would make the 45 per year in 2014/5 possible, but again not easy.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-11 15:46:09 and read 13363 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 112):
Some airlines, like ANA, may not want it (although it would not surprise me if they were to move in the direction of the 380 later on)

If ANA could *rapidly* acquire a fleet of 20 A388's, I could see them using that to put the stake in the heart of JAL. Yea... a strategy change for ANA, but I could see it happening. Probability? Low but not zero.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 114):
That would make the 45 per year in 2014/5 possible, but again not easy.

   But nothing enduring is easy.  

Lightrsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: BMI727
Posted 2010-09-11 15:54:21 and read 13321 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 104):
But that would only leave about 30 free slots between now and the end of 2017
It's fairly easy to see why a ramp-up in production needs to be up there on the agenda

Improvements in the economy should help that along a bit. The A380 isn't in nearly as bad a shape as some would make it out to be.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 113):
773ER be given more sales (leading to more time to design an upgrade/replacement for Boeing).

I think that Boeing and the 777 will be fine for most of this decade. Between Emirates and freighter sales I think the 777 line will do alright until they can launch a 777NG in the 2016-2019 range or even a Y3 in the early 2020s.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 115):
If ANA could *rapidly* acquire a fleet of 20 A388's, I could see them using that to put the stake in the heart of JAL

They could try, but would the Japanese government really let a stake in JL's heart kill them for good? Not to mention that before the fact there could be resistance to allowing NH to try and kill JAL.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 328JET
Posted 2010-09-11 21:49:59 and read 13063 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 107):
Perhaps, but if they only have a limited number of slots left, then do you really think that they would prefer to sell them to the company paying the least, or do you think they'd prefer to sell them to someone paying much closer to list prices?

For sure they would like to have a customer which pays the highest price.

But i am not sure if a new customer would really pay so much more than EK.


With EK they are in a safe boat and the relationship from Airbus and EK is already the most important for Airbus.


I really hope Airbus is able to produce 45 a/c a year sooner than later, because otherwise a lot of potential sales will be lost or at least delayed.


Lufthansa and Air France are rumoured to consider 10 additional A388s alone. Follow-on orders from KE, TG, QF, SQ, BA are likely.

New orders from ANA, Air China, Iberia, THY, SAA, UA, TAM/LAN-Group are realistic.


Airbus really has to increase the production rate!

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-11 23:36:38 and read 12960 times.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 116):
Improvements in the economy should help that along a bit

Unless Airbus can provide considerably more than 30 free slots in the next 7 years, any improvements in the economy will do nothing other than move demand elsewhere....

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 116):
The A380 isn't in nearly as bad a shape as some would make it out to be.

I agree with you there.

It's frustrating though, and a frustration that it shares with the 787, that it could have, and should have, been in better shape than it is now.

I know it has been said that if there were no delays, then A380's that would have been delivered would have been an albatross around the respective airlines necks.
I don't generally agree.
It seemed to me that throughout the GFC, airlines that could afford to accept their A380's got HUGE benefit out of their A380's.
They all reported making great business from their A380's throughout.
The delays have badly hurt the A380 (and Airbus)   .

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 116):
I think that Boeing and the 777 will be fine for most of this decade

I completely agree with you there as well. Like the A330, I think the 777 is good enough to sell on merit for a long time, to those who don't want to wait the extra 4-5 years for a "more modern" replacement.
NPV calculations are funny things  

In fact I think the 777 has more advantages relative to its "more modern" counterpart than the A330 does - specifically in the areas of extra seating and greater payload/range capability.
Airlines will make money with 777's for a fair while yet...  

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-09-12 01:56:58 and read 12762 times.

Emirates is cornering the market on A380s -- they can't possibly use all these planes for themselves.

I think they may well become a quasi-leasing company, and tender their delivery slots to airlines that might want them.... EK's sucking up delivery positions could be quite lucrative and strategic.

A line from Cole Porter's "Always True to You in My Fashion":

"Mr. Thorn once cornered corn, and that ain't hay."

However, a lot of EK's routes from the US will be seeing competition. Who wants to go to Africa via DXB, when you can fly on DL or UA from an American gateway? IAH-LOS on UA/CO will put their Houston plans for double-daily 777s to a test.

Flying to Southeast Asia and India, pax can choose between many carriers, and EK's shine may not last forever. People who've tried 10-abreast Y-class on their 777s may not be repeat customers if they have a viable alternative.

+ + +

Paradoxically, as others have noted, the 748i may benefit from this due to earlier deliveries and lower price. Airbus Industrie is putting so many eggs in this basket?

(Not that any US-based airlines are fixin' to order any Jumbos.)  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-12 02:05:12 and read 12736 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
Emirates is cornering the market on A380s -- they can't possibly use all these planes for themselves

so you've ignored the list of potential A380 cities listed above. The idea that a secondary airport will probably end up with 3 A380s per day has gone above you? They don't have enough capacity now and if they are going to be frequency capped in some countries, the only way for them to increase passenger numbers is by having the largest possible aircraft on the allowed routes e.g.the route to YYZ where they can't go from 3 weekly to daily so have replaced 777s with A380s

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
Who wants to go to Africa via DXB

If the price is low enough to outweigh the inconvenience of transiting a hub, passengers will do that. If passengers think that the service on board incumbent airlines on a non-stop routing is lesser than that airline providing the transit option, then they will choose the transit option. For example, who wants to go to Pakistan via DXB when MAN has plenty of services to Pakistan already? Yet EK have a decent amount of passengers who do exactly that.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-09-12 02:41:19 and read 12644 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 120):
If the price is low enough to outweigh the inconvenience of transiting a hub, passengers will do that.

EK may have to subsist on these-type low-fare pax to fill their too-numerous planes.

And US, EU, Indian and other airlines will step up their games to provide competition to markets Emirates currently is big in.

Sure, some UK pax at the moment would rather try EK and DXB to "wherever" than going via LHR, AMS, FRA, or CDG, not to mention CAI, SIN, and so on. Again, once BA. LH, AF/KL, and the other airlines get their games on, EK may find itself in tough straits.

Really, I have read and understood the import of this a.net thread, and I cannot believe EK could profitably run this number of A380s in the real world.

Time will tell.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-12 02:45:21 and read 12634 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
Emirates is cornering the market on A380s -- they can't possibly use all these planes for themselves.

Another in a long line of posters saying that. Until shown otherwise, if they have ordered them, they intend to use them.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
Who wants to go to Africa via DXB, when you can fly on DL or UA from an American gateway?

No US airline flies to East Africa.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
And US, EU, Indian and other airlines will step up their games to provide competition to markets Emirates currently is big in.

People have been saying that for years, too, When does it happen?

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 328JET
Posted 2010-09-12 02:47:12 and read 12637 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
Really, I have read and understood the import of this a.net thread, and I cannot believe EK could profitably run this number of A380s in the real world.

It is a simple fleet roll-over in which nearly every EK aircraft will be replaced by a bigger one.


Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-09-12 03:03:07 and read 12588 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 122):

People have been saying that for years, too, When does it happen?

Good question. Soon, I hope!

Quoting 328JET (Reply 123):
It is a simple fleet roll-over in which nearly every EK aircraft will be replaced by a bigger one.


Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

That sounds logical, and realistic. I stand by my comments above, though.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-12 03:03:17 and read 12598 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
Sure, some UK pax at the moment would rather try EK and DXB to "wherever" than going via LHR, AMS, FRA, or CDG, not to mention CAI, SIN, and so on. Again, once BA. LH, AF/KL, and the other airlines get their games on, EK may find itself in tough straits.

Some UK passengers? This "at the moment" has been a long time - 20 years in MAN''s case, raising numbers from 6,000 a month to around 1800 a day.
Look at the equipment being used outside London: MAN = A380 + 77W (with another 77W flight next year), BHX = 2 77W (A380 on one of the services in the next 2 years), GLA= 1 77W (expecting 2nd service into Scotland in the next year), NCL = A330 (but expected to be 77W within the next 2 years).

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-12 03:25:28 and read 12560 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 117):
Lufthansa and Air France are rumoured to consider 10 additional A388s alone. Follow-on orders from KE, TG, QF, SQ, BA are likely.

New orders from ANA, Air China, Iberia, THY, SAA, UA, TAM/LAN-Group are realistic.

Agreed.

KL may order a handful of 380s, too. 9W, IT, OZ and MU could also join the club, too.

Quoting A342 (Reply 82):
Maybe MUC. After all, it's the seventh largest airport in Europe and one of EK's two daily flights is operated by 77Ws or 773s. If they can't get more traffic rights to Germany, the afternoon departure to DXB is a strong candidate for the A380. The airport itself is perfectly ready, they'd only need an adapted gate at Terminal 1.

Sounds credible, especially as MUC has a good catchment area.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
I personally see benefit to German economic growth to let EK carry business people from their cities to Dubai.

Personnaly, I see way more benefits to German economy in LH upgrading its longhaul J product to the same standards as those of BA and LX...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):
But there are many European cities yet to be served that would benefit from better international connections through DXB.

Agreed.

But developing alternative hubs in Europe could work well, too.

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 101):
In Europe PA had basically 2 hubs: FRA and LHR - and 2 dozens of 727 destinations.

They also had CDG, with feeder flights to/from LHR, GVA, ZRH, FRA, MUC, FCO and TLV. A great network, which made PA a truly European airline  
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 114):
That is my fear as well. But that is also why I wrote that achieving 35-40 in 2013 is quite a challenge. That would make the 45 per year in 2014/5 possible, but again not easy.

50 by 2015/2016 should be the target. Once such prospect becomes achievable, it will boost orders, from existing as well as new clients.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 118):
It seemed to me that throughout the GFC, airlines that could afford to accept their A380's got HUGE benefit out of their A380's

Agreed: lower operating costs + new, leading product image.

Quoting mariner (Reply 122):
People have been saying that for years, too, When does it happen?

It has already started... Quite recently, but this is a cumulative process.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-12 03:53:56 and read 12561 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 126):
It has already started... Quite recently, but this is a cumulative process.

I shall be interested to see how they do it, then, given the geographic situation of the DXB hub. Although I do look forward to what Turkish does at IST.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-12 04:04:10]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-12 05:46:30 and read 12356 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 126):
50 by 2015/2016 should be the target

Which is 5 more than what they are planning at maximum ramp up of production?!

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-12 05:58:16 and read 12305 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 128):
Quoting SR4ever (Reply 126):
50 by 2015/2016 should be the target

Which is 5 more than what they are planning at maximum ramp up of production?!

Indeed.

But if EK goes for another monster order, it will make sense.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-12 06:22:42 and read 12276 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
Really, I have read and understood the import of this a.net thread,

Are you sure?

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
Emirates is cornering the market on A380s

Their current delivery plans are less than 40% of a (probably) conservative production projection....

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 119):
they can't possibly use all these planes for themselves

It's quite easy to model that EK's projected growth over the following 7 years isn't ridiculously far out of step with what the industry projects as a whole.
It's also pretty much in line with upgrading current 773ER routes to A380's over that period

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
Sure, some UK pax at the moment would rather try EK and DXB to "wherever" than going via LHR, AMS, FRA, or CDG, not to mention CAI, SIN, and so on

By 2012-2013, it's entirely possible that EK will be running 3 A380's to LHR, 2 A380's to MAN, 1 to BHX.
By 2017 I wouldn't bet against A380's running to GLA and NCL also....
I wouldn't be inclined to downplay the significance of this in relation to EK's plans....

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
EK may have to subsist on these-type low-fare pax to fill their too-numerous planes

Again, EK have managed their growth to date with fares that are easily as high as their competitors.
Running equipment that allows them lower operating cost per pax just means that they either a) generate better margins (as they do), or b) can undercut competitors and still make money

Quoting 328JET (Reply 123):
Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

  
I'm pretty sure that this is a) the plan, and b) what we will see happen

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-12 09:07:46 and read 12061 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 123):
Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

  
I'm pretty sure that this is a) the plan, and b) what we will see happen[/quote]
  

Building on Astuteman's and 328JET's remarks (but addressed more to others):
A338's free up 77Ws, 77Ws then move and either up-gauge or add frequency. Up-gauged A332's (soon to be A350s and maybe A333s) allow for route expansion.

While 90 A388's sounds like a lot, it isn't as if they'll be flying within a year. (Not that I'd complain about that A380 production rate, it just isn't happening.)

By EK standards, this is metered growth.     

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-12 11:12:22 and read 11840 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 123):
Quoting Schweigend (Reply 121):
Really, I have read and understood the import of this a.net thread, and I cannot believe EK could profitably run this number of A380s in the real world.

It is a simple fleet roll-over in which nearly every EK aircraft will be replaced by a bigger one.


Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

Their expansion is not as crazy as it seems. EK currently has 151 planes, all wide-bodies, and every time they get a new 77W or A380 it just disappears into their network, without any hesitation about where to fly it etc.

The planes coming soon are:

78 more A380s
48 more 77Ws

total 126 new planes.

EK is so short on planes, they can't even retire their oldest. Over the time they are getting this 126 new birds, they'll probably retire/sell:

29x A332
8x A343
10x A345
3x 772A
6x 77E
12x 773A

A total of 68 planes.

This results in a growth of only 58 planes. There are many more new destinations for EK and many existing that could use a capacity extension. I don't see why many people thing their plans were so crazy.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-12 12:29:57 and read 11671 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 132):
EK is so short on planes, they can't even retire their oldest. Over the time they are getting this 126 new birds, they'll probably retire/sell:

Aren't two of the A332 on their way to Virgin Blue, or soon will be. Or is that already counted?

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: EPA001
Posted 2010-09-12 12:34:01 and read 11665 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 132):
This results in a growth of only 58 planes. There are many more new destinations for EK and many existing that could use a capacity extension. I don't see why many people thing their plans were so crazy.


Me neither. I guess you have summed it up quite nicely. EK will continue to grow, I am absolutely convinced of that. And their hunger for A380's, B77W (and possibly the B777-NG) and A350's is a clear signal of this growth.  

[Edited 2010-09-12 12:57:24]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ncfc99
Posted 2010-09-12 12:51:34 and read 11599 times.

In a recent article that was linked in another thread, Tim Clark said that they need 2.5 frames to fly a daily to west coast America. So if SFO and LAX go double daily in the furure, thats 10 frames gone on just 4 frequencies.Add in a few more USA flights and we have 20 frames used on 8-10 frequncies. Add UK frequencies and you can use another 10 frames. Australia/New Zealand can make use of another 15-20 frames. I've used more than half the A380's on order in this example on only around 15 routes. There is planty of places the A380's will be used, so long as moderate growth is acheived and sustained. Stitch also done a very good analysis of seat growth numbers in the above mentioned thread that is well worth reading(Ithink it was the one when the order was anounced, I don't know how to link threads), it basiclly said EK have to double in size in the next 10 years to make use of all frames (777, 350 & 380) on order. Considering they have grown 6 fold in 10 years or so, it seems quite acheivable.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-09-13 00:07:54 and read 11056 times.

EK growth is only limited by the number of flights the bilaterals allow them. So once they cannot get more slots they need bigger aircraft. That's a simple equation.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-13 01:06:50 and read 10960 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 133):
Aren't two of the A332 on their way to Virgin Blue, or soon will be. Or is that already counted?

mariner

No, not included. I wasn't aware of that. Airfleets lists to EK A332s as leased from ILFC. Are those the ones going to Virgin Blue?

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 134):
Me neither. I guess you have summed it up quite nicely. EK will continue to grow, I am absolutely convinced of that. And their hunger for A380's, B77W (and possibly the B777-NG) and A350's is a clear signal of this growth.

I only wished they took some 747-8I, too. As much as I love the A380, a little diversity would also be nice.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 135):

EK certainly has many possible places to send the A380s to. In the Americas they currently only serve YYZ, JFK, IAH, SFO, LAX, and GRU. There are plenty more possible destinations on that continent alone.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 136):
EK growth is only limited by the number of flights the bilaterals allow them. So once they cannot get more slots they need bigger aircraft. That's a simple equation.

Yes, and there are many places that they don't even serve yet, Portugal, Scandinavia, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Vietnam, Mexico, Ukraine, former Yugoslavia, Taiwan. Linking all those places with smaller than A380 aircraft will increase the demand on existing routes where there are constraints.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-13 01:25:50 and read 10917 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 137):
No, not included. I wasn't aware of that. Airfleets lists to EK A332s as leased from ILFC. Are those the ones going to Virgin Blue?

Sorry, I don't know. I do know that there is a done deal for 2 x A332 and they are "discussing" a further 4.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-13 02:18:45 and read 10807 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 138):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 137):
No, not included. I wasn't aware of that. Airfleets lists to EK A332s as leased from ILFC. Are those the ones going to Virgin Blue?

Sorry, I don't know. I do know that there is a done deal for 2 x A332 and they are "discussing" a further 4.

mariner

OK, and this deal includes that the planes come from EK? They are not getting new planes?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-13 02:57:30 and read 10735 times.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 139):
OK, and this deal includes that the planes come from EK? They are not getting new planes?

As has been reported, the two A332 aircraft are coming from Emirates. It is all in this thread, with the summary in the OP and various other pieces of information within the first two dozen posts:

Virgin Blue Adds A330s, VA Drops Africa, Thailand (by QF744 Aug 25 2010 in Civil Aviation)

And no, they are not ordering new A330's, at this stage.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-13 03:02:38]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-13 03:09:09 and read 10696 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 140):

OK, thanks. If it happens like that, EK is really starting with the dismissal of those 68 planes listed above. In case of the A332, it is certainly not because of their economics. Rather because they are too small for EK.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MadameConcorde
Posted 2010-09-13 03:18:01 and read 10696 times.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
The aircraft “are well spoken for and frankly, the way things are going for us at the moment, the 90 certainly won’t be enough,” President Tim Clark said today in a phone interview. “Demand for our services seems to be continuing to grow apace. We’re moving forward very robustly.”

Oh yes... rather than telling the world that EK will buy 300 more A380s they should really do what is needed to improve their on board service. I keep hearing their Economy Class passengers complaining how bad it is, some even say horrible, so bad that they will never set foot on an Emirates plane again.

Not all EK flyers can afford the First Class with the showers on the A380. A gimmick that gets some to try EK 380 in F just to say they had a shower at 35K ft above ground.

Give them all the 380s they want, even 500 of them as far as I am concerned, as long as the Sheikh gives us back the QE2. Dubai is just a big show off with not much else.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 2175301
Posted 2010-09-13 03:31:43 and read 10623 times.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 123):
It is a simple fleet roll-over in which nearly every EK aircraft will be replaced by a bigger one.


Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other routes.

The assumption here is that EK will automatically be able to fill the larger aircraft on all of those routes... I think that is questionable as a general statement. Sure they will be able to fill the larger aircraft on some of the routes... But I would be surprised if it were more than half of them. Airlines have long learned that just putting a larger aircraft on a route does not mean that they can fill it.

Have a great day,

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2010-09-13 03:41:29 and read 10597 times.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):
I keep hearing their Economy Class passengers complaining how bad it is, some even say horrible, so bad that they will never set foot on an Emirates plane again.

With the greatest respect msConcorde, how many times have you personally heard those stories, or are we using hearsay or unverified websites to get these stories? 99.9% of Emirates passengers will fly with them again. Why focus on the 0.1%.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):
Not all EK flyers can afford the First Class with the showers on the A380.



Well, considering there are very few F seats as a % of total you really arent saying anything here that isn't obvious to anyone over the age of four.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):

As long as the Sheikh gives us back the QE2.

Don't start getting misty eyed on us now!

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Quokka
Posted 2010-09-13 03:43:24 and read 10588 times.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):
as long as the Sheikh gives us back the QE2.


I am sure the Emir would be only too happy to offload it at a reasonable price given that Emirate's debts. I don't know whether anybody would want to pay the huge amount required to refit it the standards expected among today's luxury cruise passengers. Its owners have been in discussions with various people about the QE2's future, but nothing positive has emerged.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):
they should really do what is needed to improve their on board service. I keep hearing their Economy Class passengers complaining how bad it is


Delivering a consistently high standard of service does need to be addressed, but I expect announcing that to the world wouldn't get the same sort of media attention. "We've ordered another 90 A380s" perks up all ears. "We're telling our crew to be a bit warmer and make sure the toilets are clean", just doesn't have the same appeal. Indeed it would backfire. Just imagine the headline: "Clark admits EK service is poor". It's not the sort of thing that would boost passenger numbers.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: MadameConcorde
Posted 2010-09-13 03:46:41 and read 10610 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 136):
EK growth is only limited by the number of flights the bilaterals allow them. So once they cannot get more slots they need bigger aircraft. That's a simple equation.

Let's see... Dubai and the almighty Emirates Airlines could get Airbus to build a new aircraft with exclusive rights for EK alone.

The new aircraft nicknamed "HyperGiant" A-880-8 will be, not a double decker but rather a triple decker, with a minimum capacity of 2000 passengers. The initial order will be of 100 aircrafts with 300 options on a 3000 passenger version.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-13 03:54:45 and read 10575 times.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 146):

I thought we'd covered the sarcasm thing higher up the thread....   

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: 2175301
Posted 2010-09-13 03:56:42 and read 10550 times.

So lets ask some questions to flesh out where EK's future growth is likely to be:

Above it has been stated that EK has grown about 6 times in a decade or so - and that use of all the A380's, 777's, etc on order only assume that they will double their current size - and thus is totally obvious.

My question are: How much of the 6x EK growth was from opening new markets (flying to new places), how much was due to adding more service (more flights per day or week), and how much was due to EK increasing the size of the planes on existing markets?

While I do not doubt that EK can again double or triple its current size. I doubt that will occur just by increasing the size of the planes they are using. I suspect a lot of the growth will have to occur by flying to new places - or increased frequency. Neither of which is likely to require an A380.

Have a great day,

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: UALWN
Posted 2010-09-13 03:59:52 and read 10535 times.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 143):
Sure they will be able to fill the larger aircraft on some of the routes... But I would be surprised if it were more than half of them.

As it has been mentioned above, in order to fill those planes, EK's passengers have to double in the next 10 years. That's a 7% increment year-on-year for 10 years. Is that feasible? Well, in the last 10 years EK's passenger growth year-on-year has been: 19.8%, 18.3%, 25.7%, 22.8%, 20.0%, 15.7%, 21.0%, 21.0%, 7.0% (year ending March 31st 2009), and 20.8% (year ending March 31st 2010), adding up to an almost six-fold increase on passenger numbers from 2000 to 2010. You can draw your own conclusions.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-13 04:23:36 and read 10490 times.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 148):
While I do not doubt that EK can again double or triple its current size. I doubt that will occur just by increasing the size of the planes they are using. I suspect a lot of the growth will have to occur by flying to new places - or increased frequency. Neither of which is likely to require an A380.

Every time EK starts a new route, that increases the demand to the existing routes that make a useful connection to the new destination. For example, if EK started SGN, that would increase demand on flights to France, Germany, UK, Switzerland, etc, because of connecting pax. To cope with the new demand on those routes, EK could increase frequencies or use a bigger plane. The latter is the far cheaper option, and in many cases EK can't just add new frequencies because of slot restrictions, bilateral restrictions, etc.

When they want to increase capacity by 150 daily pax, it seems far more useful to replace a daily 77W with a daily A380, rather than replacing it with two daily A332s.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Cysafan
Posted 2010-09-13 04:24:56 and read 10492 times.

[quote=MadameConcorde,reply=146]
Let's see... Dubai and the almighty Emirates Airlines could get Airbus to build a new aircraft with exclusive rights for EK alone.

The new aircraft nicknamed "HyperGiant" A-880-8 will be, not a double decker but rather a triple decker, with a minimum capacity of 2000 passengers. The initial order will be of 100 aircrafts with 300 options on a 3000 passenger version.
[/qu
I support MadameConcorde 's comment !! Emirates airline is a huge showoff! Doesn't the airline wanted to be bankrupt like Pan American World Airways with thousands of employees losing jobs and hundreds of aircraft been sold?? I bet the next major bankruptcy will occur with Emirates in a few years time.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Thorben
Posted 2010-09-13 04:29:04 and read 10580 times.

Quoting Cysafan (Reply 151):
Emirates airline is a huge showoff! Doesn't the airline wanted to be bankrupt like Pan American World Airways with thousands of employees losing jobs and hundreds of aircraft been sold?? I bet the next major bankruptcy will occur with Emirates in a few years time.

And what precisely makes you believe that? What are the indications for it?

BTW, there is a good table of EK's pax, results, etc. over the last years. Yes, it is wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirate...ancial_and_operational_performance

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-13 04:47:28 and read 10530 times.

Quoting Cysafan (Reply 151):
Emirates airline is a huge showoff!

And once upon a time - not so very many years ago - people were saying that about Singapore Airlines.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2010-09-13 05:26:07 and read 10441 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 153):
And once upon a time - not so very many years ago - people were saying that about Singapore Airlines

        

I wish people would realise that!

If we had ANet in the 80s/90s you would have read exactly the same threads but find/replace EK/SQ

"SQ order 25 747s!!! Where could they possibly use them all too???"

That now sounds inconceivable. So will EK in 20 years time.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: UALWN
Posted 2010-09-13 05:27:03 and read 10449 times.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 148):
I suspect a lot of the growth will have to occur by flying to new places - or increased frequency.

New routes will be opened with "small" aircraft (332), while current 332 routes are up-gauged to 77W and current 77W routes get a 388. The seat increase in any given route doesn't need to be that big.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-13 05:55:00 and read 10352 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 154):
Quoting mariner (Reply 153):
And once upon a time - not so very many years ago - people were saying that about Singapore Airlines


I wish people would realise that!

If we had ANet in the 80s/90s you would have read exactly the same threads but find/replace EK/SQ

"SQ order 25 747s!!! Where could they possibly use them all too???"

The circumstances were a bit different in the late 80s than from now.

On most routes between major airports in Europe and the Far East at least had 1 stopover (BAH, DHA, DXB, SHJ, MCT, KHI), and frequency was less than 1-daily.

There was a big potential for improvements, namely:

- nonstop flights, which the 744 thankfully made possible

- frequency increases to at least 1-daily, with a view to feeding hubs better, as these were under construction.

Both trends fuelled demand for aircrafts, and were strong feeders for the growth experienced from the late-80s to 9/11, especially as Asia kept booming almost endlessly.

Is there now still the same potential for growth?


At that time, SQ was also 1 of the very first airlines to embark into an alliance, namely with DL and SR (while EK leans against the very idea of Alliance), and had very settled service standards, which in my view EK had until the Millenium, and has lost little by little since then.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: EPA001
Posted 2010-09-13 06:17:55 and read 10311 times.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 142):
I keep hearing their Economy Class passengers complaining how bad it is, some even say horrible, so bad that they will never set foot on an Emirates plane again.


I have heard many reports stating the opposite, where once loyal KLM customers have now switched to EK and intend to stay there as returning passengers. So what is true? Probably both sine the reports are made individually without knowing if the commentators have a common frame of reference. .

In the end, in my opinion the growth rate that EK has been and still is showing can not be achieved with one time only passengers. The numbers speak for themselves I guess.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 147):
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 146):

I thought we'd covered the sarcasm thing higher up the thread....


I guess (for once) you have been proven wrong my friend.  Wink.

[Edited 2010-09-13 06:20:02]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-13 12:46:55 and read 9970 times.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 156):
At that time, SQ was also 1 of the very first airlines to embark into an alliance, namely with DL and SR (while EK leans against the very idea of Alliance), and had very settled service standards, which in my view EK had until the Millenium, and has lost little by little since then.

That didn't affect the thinking of anyone I know. Most of the criticisms of Singapore Airlines were for quite different reasons.

I'll say what no one else has - many of the objections, sadly, were racist. There was the same resentment of many of the co-called Asian Tiger economies.

Without going down that road, the objections were many of the same ones being directed at Emirates - they pay their staff peanuts, for example. Australian pilots were particularly vocal about that.

The Singapore ads were decried as sexist or appeals to white male chauvinism. Boycotts were suggested by some groups. Who wants to stop over in hot, steamy Singapore, some asked? The answer was - quite a lot of people.

Singapore Airlines represented an important shift in paradigm and the reactions to that shift - then as now - were often intensely negative.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2010-09-14 04:48:29 and read 9647 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 158):
Singapore Airlines represented an important shift in paradigm and the reactions to that shift - then as now - were often intensely negative.

I think everything you've said about SQ is true, but who even remembers that now???

Give it 10 years and EK will be the same.

And we'll be having the same tired old discussions about Kingfisher Airlines and Air China

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Baroque
Posted 2010-09-14 07:07:29 and read 9494 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 158):
The Singapore ads were decried as sexist or appeals to white male chauvinism. Boycotts were suggested by some groups. Who wants to stop over in hot, steamy Singapore, some asked? The answer was - quite a lot of people.

And the other thing about those ads was they were relevant to Singapore at the time they were introduced, but very atypical of Singapore girl from say 1970, the change presumably being a function of a changed diet due to the prosperity of Singapore.

But you are right about the racism towards SQ and the inference for EK is probably correct too. "I mean how could they possibly operate all those overly big planes from France?"

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-14 21:06:20 and read 9192 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 136):
EK growth is only limited by the number of flights the bilaterals allow them. So once they cannot get more slots they need bigger aircraft. That's a simple equation.

I think it's one step more complicated than that...

We've seen that bilaterals can restrict not only frequency, but also A/C type.

EK is buying A/C as if there are no bilaterals, and as if there won't be more in the future, so that's why I wonder whether they will eventually have a problem operating all those A/C they have ordered. Many world airlines who serve the burgeoning corridor between Europe and Southeast Asia (and all points between, but especially the fastest growing markets of China and India) are not ABLE to compete with EK because of EK's transfer capability, so bilaterals will be the only thing to protect them.

Case in point: EK has two widebody flights from Manchester to Dubai. BA would not be ABLE to operate those flights (even if they had not become so LHR centric) because for BA the traffic would be O + D, and their simply isn't the market. EK can combine the passengers from dozens of flights all over Europe and North America, and transfer these passengers to flights all over The Middle East, Eurasia, and Australia/New Zealand.

They can also charge cheaper fares because of their financial situation in Dubai, as well as because of "scale."

This is not an opinion about what's "fair;" rather, it's a projection: I can't see how all these countries will protect their airlines and foreign exchange income EXCEPT with bilaterals.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 16):
What EK wants to do with the planes has been explained very often. Connect Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and parts of the Americas through Dubai, which is in the middle of all that.

Absolutely. They are doing exactly what they should be doing; using their resources and whatever advantages they have to take as much business away from their competitors and make as much money as possible.

SO: I don't believe that Europe will allow it's airlines to become decimated, even in favor of Airbus sales. I think the combined airlines of Europe must have revenue many, many times more than that of Airbus.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: david_itl
Posted 2010-09-14 23:34:29 and read 9085 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 161):
Case in point: EK has two widebody flights from Manchester to Dubai. BA would not be ABLE to operate those flights (even if they had not become so LHR centric) because for BA the traffic would be O + D, and their simply isn't the market. EK

At what point would BA would consider? As EK is generally carrying 45,000 passengers a month at bare minimum at MAN, then about 20% O+D means that 9000 passengers are available to BA (based on a CAA survey from 2003 that indicated that 18% was O+D). Add what BA is getting routing MAN-LHR-DXB and you're starting to approach the nagging question of whether the pre-occupation with all things London for them is the correct strategy, and contemplate that a daily service for BA is not out of the question should they use 767s.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2010-09-15 00:04:33 and read 9044 times.

Does anyone here think that, at some point, EK will become a victim of its own success?

As it stands now, EK offers a hassle-free transit experience through DXB. But what happens when the airport starts experiencing severe ATC congestion, gate shortages, crowded terminals/gate areas, notoriously long waits for security, immigration, etc.? I think at that point people will start opting for other carrier's nonstops (when possible) or alternates like BAH, MCT, etc. much like those in the know avoid ATL or ORD in favor of CLT or DTW, respectively. Even though Dubai has all kinds of expansion plans for DXB and its new airport, I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with EK's astronomical growth.

Then you have everyone else's infrastructure to worry about. I can't see too many of EK's goldmine destinations in Africa or South Asia being able to accommodate A380s anytime soon. Quite a few European and East Asian countries (France, Germany, South Korea, and probably others as well) seem downright terrified of EK, and will try to find any excuse possible to keep their flagship A380s out. I would be absolutely shocked if smaller EK stations like MLA, NCE, or CHC ever upgrade their facilities to handle the A380. So then the question becomes, where will all these planes go? I have a feeling we will start seeing a few of these beauties flying nearly empty to the likes of KWI, DOH, AMM, etc. if these issues aren't worked out soon.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: gemuser
Posted 2010-09-15 00:56:56 and read 8987 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
I would be absolutely shocked if smaller EK stations like MLA, NCE, or CHC ever upgrade their facilities to handle the A380

Didn't I read on here that NCE had/was upgrading for the A380? CHC can certainly take an A380 now, via a remote stand if not the terminal. MLA I don't know.

Despite what a lot of people on here think, if your airport can take a B744, it can usually take the A380 already. You may have to use remote stands if your terminal doesn't have 80x80 gates, but it's not really a big deal.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-15 02:24:16 and read 8915 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
Does anyone here think that, at some point, EK will become a victim of its own success?

Anything is possible, but they've been extremely smart so far, so I assume they're smarter than to fall into that fairly obvious trap.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SR4ever
Posted 2010-09-15 04:19:04 and read 8800 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 161):
I think the combined airlines of Europe must have revenue many, many times more than that of Airbus.

And European airlines are also good Airbus customers.

Perhaps one should instruct a thorough study on what if at European (+Indian/Southasian) Airlines if EK was not there? I am pretty sure that one of the findings would be that most of the 380s ordered by EK would actually be in the order books of AF, BA, VS, LH, and also of KL, AZ and maybe LX, BD and AB (+AI, IT, 9W, TK, TG, MH, SQ).

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
crowded terminals/gate areas

It's already a problem at DXB at various times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
expansion plans for DXB and its new airport

Yes, but DXB+JXB may also be a problem for EK.

If they move all their operations to JXB, they will probably lose some catchment around the Creek and in Sharjah as well, leaving a good point-to-point market to those of their competitors staying at DXB. It could also boost prospects for SHJ itself.

If they split operations between JXB and DXB, connectivity will doubtless suffer.

True, JXB may help them attracting more passengers who would otherwise fly EY from AUH, but JXB might be still a bit too far from AUH to drain substantially higher flows from there that at the moment

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
I would be absolutely shocked if smaller EK stations like MLA, NCE, or CHC ever upgrade their facilities to handle the A380.

Even if they do so, I don't see EK operating 380s on NCE and MLA anytime soon. 359 or 77W or 3510 instead.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-15 11:29:42 and read 8564 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 161):
I think the combined airlines of Europe must have revenue many, many times more than that of Airbus.

I'm not sure what "many many times" would constitute, but for what its worth,
LH's revenue in 2009 was E22 Bn
AF/KLM's revenue in 2009 was E24Bn
BA's revenue in 2009 was about £9Bn

Airbus's revenue in 2009 was E28Bn.

For what it's worth..  

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mdavies06
Posted 2010-09-15 14:02:01 and read 8399 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 162):
Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 161):
Case in point: EK has two widebody flights from Manchester to Dubai. BA would not be ABLE to operate those flights (even if they had not become so LHR centric) because for BA the traffic would be O + D, and their simply isn't the market. EK

At what point would BA would consider? As EK is generally carrying 45,000 passengers a month at bare minimum at MAN, then about 20% O+D means that 9000 passengers are available to BA (based on a CAA survey from 2003 that indicated that 18% was O+D). Add what BA is getting routing MAN-LHR-DXB and you're starting to approach the nagging question of whether the pre-occupation with all things London for them is the correct strategy, and contemplate that a daily service for BA is not out of the question should they use 767s.


Whilst BA may not be so fast in getting less LON centric, it is perfectly plausible that other airlines will see an opportunity in a market the size of 3 A380 daily. Perhaps VS or TOM even? Not forgetting the fact that there are 1,000+ of A350 and 787 to be delivered globally by 202x. If EK can run 3x A380 daily DXB-MAN, and assuming India is the biggest transfer market here, it is certainly plausible for airlines to start fly daily DEL-MAN or BOM-MAN using a nimble 787, thus undercutting the attraction for flying onestop. At the same time, it causes carriers relying on transfer traffic to make less revenue. Afterall, EK 'only' flies 8x daily to LON and there are at least 8 non stop flights between LON and India. Is it not a general trend that non stop flights get more premium revenues and the cost conscious crowd fly whatever is the cheapest, transfer or not?

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 163):
I think at that point people will start opting for other carrier's nonstops (when possible) or alternates like BAH, MCT, etc. much like those in the know avoid ATL or ORD in favor of CLT or DTW, respectively. Even though Dubai has all kinds of expansion plans for DXB and its new airport, I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with EK's astronomical growth.
EY and QR has an equally ambitious growth plan relatively speaking.

Flying via ATL or ORD is great due to the frequencies of flights offered, but really if there is a more convenient non stop option one would obviously chooses that. Some might argue that a hub like Dubai is needed to connect secondary cities in continent A to continent B, but the 787 and A350 are designed with these missions in mind and so far none of them have been delivered yet. What impact they will have on A380 operators obviously remain to be seen.

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 166):
If they split operations between JXB and DXB, connectivity will doubtless suffer.

Oh yes. Talk to KE and OZ and see how they benefitted from the NRT/HND split. A lot of airport operators around the region have stepped up their effort to be a hub in order to compete. DOH is one example. Over at India, DEL T3 is designed with Intl/dom transfer in mind, and AI has already taken a step up by announcing more non stop flights to the US. As far as I know, neither Doha or Delhi has plan for a second international airport.

[Edited 2010-09-15 14:03:20]

[Edited 2010-09-15 14:05:40]

[Edited 2010-09-15 14:06:46]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: rameshksm
Posted 2010-09-15 16:35:25 and read 8294 times.

Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 168):
it is certainly plausible for airlines to start fly daily DEL-MAN or BOM-MAN using a nimble 787

While what you state is certainly plausible, it is very likely that not all MAN-India passengers are DEL or BOM bound and will likely need to connect onward to their final destination from either city. So what you note as a point-to-point may not effectively be one.

Then it just comes down to whether MAN-India traffic prefer to connect via DXB to their final destination or DEL/BOM. While DEL T3 is certainly a step in the right direction, EK and DXB have the head-start.

Usually I find it convenient to have customs/immigration done at my final destination, and toward that end, if I am a UK-India passenger, I would certainly favor a routing via DXB/AUH rather than a routing via BOM/DEL (unless of course my final destination is also served directly by BA.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
For what it's worth..  

For what its worth, you should stop trying to inject facts and sense into a discussion that involves EK or DXB or Dubai or A380. Suppositions, opinion and conjecture make for interesting talk. And I might add...entertaining reading.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-15 18:42:33 and read 8220 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
I'm not sure what "many many times" would constitute, but for what its worth,
LH's revenue in 2009 was E22 Bn
AF/KLM's revenue in 2009 was E24Bn
BA's revenue in 2009 was about £9Bn

Airbus's revenue in 2009 was E28Bn.
Quoting rameshksm (Reply 169):
For what its worth, you should stop trying to inject facts and sense into a discussion that involves EK or DXB or Dubai or A380. Suppositions, opinion and conjecture make for interesting talk. And I might add...entertaining reading.

The point I was making is that I don't think The EU will sacrifice a huge chunk of it's airline revenue just to keep EK happy so they will keep buying planes. I think it's difficult to predict what countries will impose what kind of bilateral restrictions as EK increases it's capacity to their cities - but I suspect those restrictions are coming. It would be suicide for them not to do so.

The airlines and Airbus have to base many long range business plans on what they essentially GUESS is going to happen quite a few years into the future. So I don't see why educated guessing on this forum would be considered so out of order. I find the adamant, pie-in-the-sky predictions about EK and Airbus equally amusing, because... WHO KNOWS?

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
Boo hoo. EK had to find a way to compete with the established carriers. They can find a way to compete, too. That's why it's called competition. Perhaps I am reading too much into what you are saying, but I don't think geographic location is unfair in any stretch of the imagination. Inconvenient for your competitors? you bet.

Competition needs a level playing field. Without that, countries will impose restrictions on capacity and/or A/C type. They've already done it, whether it's fair on not, and EK only has a fraction of their eventual 380 fleet operating so far. I don't think the Europeans and others are crying boo-hoo, I think they will counter with restrictive bilaterals. Based on their aggressive order book, EK seems to assume this will not be a problem.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: gemuser
Posted 2010-09-15 21:37:44 and read 8122 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 170):
The airlines and Airbus have to base many long range business plans on what they essentially GUESS is going to happen quite a few years into the future.

This is true of EVERY business.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 170):
Without that, countries will impose restrictions on capacity and/or A/C type

Disagree with "will". They may, they may not it depends on a number of factors and is not as simple as you make out.
One example is Australia. Why on earth does Australia give EK "ANY" landing rights? We certainly do not need a bi-lateral with the UAE for Australian airlines. The Australian government allows it for compertation reasons, to keep fares on all airlines lower than they would be without EK. I am totally sure EK know this and take it in to account in their dealing with this country.

Another example is MAN in the UK. EK provides a service that no other airline is willing to provide to that city. Do you think that MAN would do nothing in political action if the EU/UK attempted to disadvantage their city? I'm sure EK knows this too.

While I don't ssay that there will not be any bi-lateral restrictions placed on EK, there probably will be, BUT I think they will be harder to do than you seem to think and they will be relatively small restrictions when they do happen.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-15 22:02:37 and read 8103 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 171):
One example is Australia. Why on earth does Australia give EK "ANY" landing rights? .

Come to that, why does New Zealand give Emirates any landing rights - and traffic rights between Australia and New Zealand?

Just as Lan Chile and Aerolineas Argentinas have those traffic rights between New Zealand and Australia.

As a signatory to MALIAT, New Zealand - even more than Australia - is committed to opening up the skies. And little Air New Zealand is expected to cope, to compete and be profitable - and is.

It is good for business and, in turn, Emirates has been a very good citizen, putting money back into NZ in the form of generous sponsorships.

It amuses me that tiny New Zealand, with a teensy-weensy economy and a population of only four million, can embrace these aviation freedoms, while others - bigger and very much richer - are grabbing their smelling salts, crying foul and talking protection.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-15 22:05:37]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-09-15 23:11:30 and read 8000 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 172):
Quoting gemuser (Reply 171):
One example is Australia. Why on earth does Australia give EK "ANY" landing rights? .

Come to that, why does New Zealand give Emirates any landing rights - and traffic rights between Australia and New Zealand?

Why indeed? The rights that EK now enjoys to AU and NZ may not last forever, if Australia or New Zealand perceive a threat to their national carriers' survival.

Neither will European countries/airlines stand by in the future, and allow EK to "take it all". On the routes to India and SE Asia, I think the European carriers will compete with EK as best they can with their northern hubs, using nonstops v. connections in Dubai.

Don't forget EgyptAir and CAI -- well-situated geographically like DXB -- and even better for African destinations.

- - -

Going back to the start of this thread, and the idea that so many new planes for EK may not be "enough" for them -- when is enough? When will EK be satisfied with its position and simply coexist (profitably) with its competitors?

Why so hungry, EK?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-15 23:19:11 and read 7986 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 173):
Why indeed? The rights that EK now enjoys to AU and NZ may not last forever, if Australia or New Zealand perceive a threat to their national carriers' survival.

I can't speak for Australia, I don't know what may happen there, but I cannot imagine that happening in New Zealand.

As I already said, little Air New Zealand is expected to cope, to compete and be profitable - and is.

I don't care what you think of Emirates, but I'd prefer you didn't make negative implications about long-standing - and quite brave - New Zealand aviation policy.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-15 23:20:32]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-09-15 23:53:52 and read 7935 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 174):
I'd prefer you didn't make negative implications about long-standing - and quite brave - New Zealand aviation policy.

I wasn't aware that I had. Sincerely sorry for any offense caused.

Air New Zealand is a super airline, and NZ is one of the best-run countries around.

I live in Houston, and I'm very much looking forward to the partnership between NZ and CO.

I merely meant to indicate that if a foreign airline like EK went too far and attempted to overwhelm the market, the local authorities might step in to prevent it.

Cheers and regards,

Scottie

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2010-09-16 00:01:02 and read 7923 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 173):
Going back to the start of this thread, and the idea that so many new planes for EK may not be "enough" for them -- when is enough? When will EK be satisfied with its position and simply coexist (profitably) with its competitors?

Why so hungry, EK?

Because ( seen from Europe ) their backyard will have growth rates that will not be limited if they fly ten times more than now, and some of their front yard ( Africa ) too. The fact that the tiny areas of Europe an Northern America with their low population are mostly saturated just says that the future music will not be playing there.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-16 01:40:05 and read 7909 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 175):
Sincerely sorry for any offense caused.

No need for an apology and I understood what you meant.

My point is that you have no basis for saying it about New Zealand. The country is committed to open skies, not open season on the national airline.

The signatories to MALIAT are fully aware of what might be called "unfettered" competition and the protocols make provision to deal it.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 175):
I merely meant to indicate that if a foreign airline like EK went too far and attempted to overwhelm the market, the local authorities might step in to prevent it.

You don't seem to give the management of Emirates much credit for political savvy, whereas I assume they are fully aware of what might if they attempted to "overwhelm" a market.

Definitions of "overwhelm" might vary, of course, as we have seen in some of the richer countries, but, from my perspective, some of them are throwing stones from inside a glass house.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-16 01:41:12]

[Edited 2010-09-16 01:56:08]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: rameshksm
Posted 2010-09-16 10:44:07 and read 7676 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 173):
When will EK be satisfied with its position and simply coexist (profitably) with its competitors?

Why so hungry, EK?

Simply because they are a for-profit venture. Before we ask EK the question of "enough", there are several other corporations world-wide that need to be asked that question.

I do not mean to insinuate you personally, but I have to wonder, if the backlash against EK would be as severe if they were, all other things being equal, a European or North American airline?

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2010-09-16 16:37:54 and read 7464 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 172):
Quoting gemuser (Reply 171):
One example is Australia. Why on earth does Australia give EK "ANY" landing rights? .

Come to that, why does New Zealand give Emirates any landing rights - and traffic rights between Australia and New Zealand?

As far as I recall, Australia and New Zealand granted 5th freedom rights to EK (and LA and AR) on the Trans-Tasman routes to provide an incentive for their own carriers to offer more attractive fares and increase travel and tourism between the two countries. Basically the same reason why Australia granted liberal access by EK on the DXB-Australia route. The low fares offered by EK between Europe and Australia make it easier for tens of thousands of Europeans to visit Australia and spend their money.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-16 16:45:41 and read 7464 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 179):
As far as I recall, Australia and New Zealand granted 5th freedom rights to EK (and LA and AR) on the Trans-Tasman routes to provide an incentive for their own carriers to offer more attractive fares and increase travel and tourism between the two countries.


I don't know why Australia did it, although I am Australian I wasn't there at the time, but I know why New Zealand did it. See MALIAT above.

New Zealand is committed to 5th Freedom - and eventually 7th and cabotage - with any country that that will become a full signatory to MALIAT.

Not that there would be a lot of cabotage in Singapore.

mariner

[Edited 2010-09-16 16:55:01]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-16 17:02:02 and read 7429 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 173):
When will EK be satisfied with its position and simply coexist (profitably) with its competitors?

An old phrase in business is 'you grow or you rot.' EK, as an airline, has a drive to grow. There are *many* untapped routes for them to expand. There is still a hole in mid-east hubbing. Either EK stays significantly ahead of QR and EY, or they will be bowled over by their far better funded competitors.

I see the following major growth areas for EK:
1. Russia
2. Africa
3. China

Now as they gain more connections, they will continue to grow in existing markets.

So why would EK leave untapped market for someone else? The mid-East was a relatively under-served market. Hence why the passenger growth rate in the region has been phenomenal. The established players (Saudia, Gulf Air) were asleep at the wheel at didn't enable the hubbing banks.

As to countries arbitrarily breaking treaties... I doubt that. The cost is very high. Recall bilaterals are sub-treaties.

Quoting rameshksm (Reply 178):
but I have to wonder, if the backlash against EK would be as severe if they were, all other things being equal, a European or North American airline?

Unfortunately, I wonder that too...

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: A342
Posted 2010-09-17 07:38:12 and read 7138 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 181):
I see the following major growth areas for EK:
1. Russia
2. Africa
3. China

While not as big, I would add Eastern Europe in general to that list. Even many capitals don't have any longhaul services.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2010-09-17 19:29:22 and read 6881 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 173):
he rights that EK now enjoys to AU and NZ may not last forever, if Australia or New Zealand perceive a threat to their national carriers' survival.

NZ is a no-no as Gemuser said. Infact EK will more likely *increase* capacity into NZ and when the do they will be welcomed with open arms. At some point I would expect to see something like DXB-SIN-AKL since at the moment EK's commitment to NZ does seem a little bit of an afterthought: it's as if they decided that they may as well cross the ditch as opposed to spend 12 hours sunbathing at SYD/MEL/BNE.

Similarly, for Australia I can't see any action to curtail EK's rights. Don't forget, SQ is just as destructive to QF on the kangaroo route as EK is, and arguably in the past were *more* destructive (if you want to use that word) yet nobody would seriously suggest anything but an open bilateral between Aus and Singapore.

As for the trans-tasmans: *if* NZ/DJ were to be approved then their would only be two airlines flying between Aus and NZ: QF/JQ and NZ/DJ. I don't think anybody in Canberra would try and argue this was a good thing (although it would, admittedly, reflect the cosy QF/JQ and DJ domestic duopoly). Given that AR and LA only fly SYD-AKL, EK is the only airline who could provide effective competition to the big two/three.

Also don't forget that the Australian government signed an open skies agreement with the USA and in doing so murdered QF's profitability. Admittedly the GFC played a role in this, but the massive increase incapacity on SYD-LAX from VA and DL turned QF's most profitable route into a blood bath. While the competitors are, admittedly, either Australian or US based as opposed to a third country (such as the UAE on the kangaroo route) I get the impression that rapping QF in cotton wool is not the government's number one priority.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2010-09-17 19:32:59 and read 6880 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 183):
yet nobody would seriously suggest anything but an open bilateral between Aus and Singapore.

Australia needs a stopover point to get passengers to the old world. They couldn't get into a restrictive agreement with Singapore or any other waypoint country without hurting themselves.

QF and VA do not need unrestricted access to Dubai to operate. Thus it's not the same situation.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2010-09-18 02:10:39 and read 6672 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 170):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
Boo hoo. EK had to find a way to compete with the established carriers. They can find a way to compete, too. That's why it's called competition. Perhaps I am reading too much into what you are saying, but I don't think geographic location is unfair in any stretch of the imagination. Inconvenient for your competitors? you bet.

Competition needs a level playing field. Without that, countries will impose restrictions on capacity and/or A/C type. They've already done it, whether it's fair on not, and EK only has a fraction of their eventual 380 fleet operating so far. I don't think the Europeans and others are crying boo-hoo, I think they will counter with restrictive bilaterals. Based on their aggressive order book, EK seems to assume this will not be a problem.

My comment was in reference to the "unfair playing field" claim, which was linked to geography. I'm just saying that you can't really call geographic position "unfair" because it is what it is.

EK created a business plan around the geographic reality that's Dubai. Good for them.

-Dave

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-09-18 03:19:27 and read 6605 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 185):
EK created a business plan around the geographic reality that's Dubai.

That geographic position was extremely useful to European and Asian carriers before the advent of the longer range jets.

I've lost count of the number of times I was on flights from Australia to/from Europe that stopped at Dubai and the loss of all that traffic was something of a blow to DXB.

You didn't have to have second sight to guess that Dubai might want some of that revenue back, and for themselves, so I don't think anyone should be surprised by what is happening now.

mariner

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: scbriml
Posted 2010-09-18 03:56:05 and read 6550 times.

Quoting rameshksm (Reply 178):
I do not mean to insinuate you personally, but I have to wonder, if the backlash against EK would be as severe if they were, all other things being equal, a European or North American airline?

Some believe the attitude to EK on this site would be significantly different if they had ordered 90 748s.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: gkirk
Posted 2010-09-18 09:39:03 and read 6326 times.

Newcastle-Dubai will upgrade from a daily 332 to a daily 77W within the next 15 months  

When EK used the 77W to NCL recently for the NCL 75th anniversary, the NCL-DXB flight carried 418 pax on a 427 seater 77W. Not too bad.

Wouldn't be too surprised that GLA goes double daily next year either, with perhaps a 380 in the not too distant future (if they sort out airport infrastructure).

Emirates have been a godsend for the UK regions  

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-18 09:48:02 and read 6306 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 185):
My comment was in reference to the "unfair playing field" claim

With regard to their geographic position, I don't use the word "unfair," I use the words "level playing field" or "advantage." Their advantage simply is a fact.

The contention that European carriers could compete with EK if they were just run better does not hold water - because the geographic advantage of EK is insurmountable. Other airlines in the region are far behind in attempting to breakup their local monopoly.

This geographic advantage is unprecedented - partially due to it's position between distant population centers, partially due to much of those population centers being emerging markets. The bilaterals I believe are coming, lest many airlines become decimated.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2010-09-18 10:10:42 and read 6277 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 187):
Some believe the attitude to EK on this site would be significantly different if they had ordered 90 748s.

I doubt it. They are the #1 777 operator in the world and that hasn't cut them any slack.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ElbowRoom
Posted 2010-09-18 11:11:05 and read 6170 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 189):
The bilaterals I believe are coming, lest many airlines become decimated.

But those other airlines fly many routes, not just the ones where Emirates is a close competitor. British Airways has had to face competition from various connecting services to Asia and Australasia for years ... they manage fine by providing direct service from London to a set of Asian cities and to the rest of the world, and have to accept that they (BA) are not as well placed to serve some places e.g. Australasia on their own metal, or secondary cities in Pakistan or India, as Emirates.

Similarly for most other world airlines: EK is well placed to compete on a few of their routes FOR INDIRECT SERVICE ONLY but hardly the whole network.

Don't forget that if Emirates loses control of its service quality or its costs or its network growth, then it will have to look over its shoulder at its most direct competitors (QR and EY, and also aspiring TK), as well as all the alliance carriers offering direct flights and connections through their hubs.

The idea that this one carrier based in the Middle East has somehow achieved a monopoly or anything remotely close to it seems far fetched to me. And they seem to have something like 3% of the world fleet of western built widebodies.



[Edited 2010-09-18 11:18:40]

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: SSTsomeday
Posted 2010-09-18 21:31:04 and read 5884 times.

Quoting ElbowRoom (Reply 191):
Similarly for most other world airlines: EK is well placed to compete on a few of their routes FOR INDIRECT SERVICE ONLY but hardly the whole network.

I think what they will be able to do is serve secondary centers with one stop, in some cases with 380s, working on such a scale that their prices will be as unbeatable as their connectivity - so people will connect through Dubai, even if it's a little out of the way.

Quoting ElbowRoom (Reply 191):
The idea that this one carrier based in the Middle East has somehow achieved a monopoly or anything remotely close to it seems far fetched to me. And they seem to have something like 3% of the world fleet of western built widebodies.

But 100 380's? I think the next closest order is 20. And all those 777s? The writing on the wall suggests that what's coming, in terms of scale, is unprecedented. And if in a completely unregulated market, there's no way to compete against them.

I'm not talking about "fair," mind you - just the reality of the situation.

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: astuteman
Posted 2010-09-18 23:11:08 and read 5817 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 192):
I think what they will be able to do is serve secondary centers with one stop, in some cases with 380s, working on such a scale that their prices will be as unbeatable as their connectivity

And yet EK are by no means always the cheapest solution on the sectors they serve

And they say that their A380's command the highest yields of all, and are the price point from which flights on their other aircraft are discounted...

Rgds

Topic: RE: "EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark
Username: ElbowRoom
Posted 2010-09-19 14:00:15 and read 5441 times.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 192):
I think what they will be able to do is serve secondary centers with one stop, in some cases with 380s, working on such a scale that their prices will be as unbeatable as their connectivity - so people will connect through Dubai, even if it's a little out of the way.

   Sounds like good news for the economies of those secondary cities. Better international connectivity; two legs on longhaul aircraft with a good range of facilities/service levels. Kudos to Emirates for seeing the opportunity and working hard to develop it.

At the risk of stating the very obvious, EK are not the only airline offering international/intercontinental services through a large hub airport, nor the only airline using the A380 for this purpose. They are just doing it rather well.

As to the effects on 'national carriers' and so on, maybe this will encourage governments to look again at the capacity constraints at their own hub airports (and access to those airports from 'secondary cities'). More total volume through those hubs might be compatible with more A380s for home carriers, not just for Emirates.


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