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Topic: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-19 07:41:00 and read 11026 times.

This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

How to read:
Flights are daily except as noted "/wk" which means per week.
ABE-MDT 2>10/WK means a reduction from 2 daily flights to 10 flights per week which is about 1.5 flights
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route

9K
BOS-AUG 0>3 DEC-
BOS-MVY 9>6 NOV-
BOS-PVC 6>3 NOV-

AA
SJU-PAP 3/WK>0 DEC-APR Earlier end date
SJU-POS 3/WK>2/WK DEC-APR

AM
ONT-GDL 0>1 NOV-

AS
ACV-LAX 0>1 DEC-
ACV-RDD 2>1 DEC-
ANC-DEN 1>0 MAY Later start
ANC-LAX 1>0 MAY Later start
FAT-SEA 2>1 JAN-MAR
LAX-GDL 1>2 FEB-
LAX-PVR 1>2 FEB-
MCO-SEA 2>1 MAY-
SJC-GDL 0>4/WK DEC-
SMF-GDL 0>3/WK DEC-

AV
LAX-BOG 5/WK>0 JAN-


B6
ACK-JFK 0>2 MAY-
BOS-AUA 10/WK>3/WK MAY-
BOS-BDA 0>1 MAY-
BOS-CUN 10/WK>3/WK MAY-
BOS-EWR 0>4 MAY-
BOS-FLL 7>5 MAY-
BOS-IAD 6>7 MAY-
BOS-JAX 1>2 MAY-
BOS-NAS 1>0 MAY-
BOS-OAK 0>1 MAY-
BOS-ORD 3>4 MAY-
BOS-PBI 5>2 MAY-
BOS-PLS 0>1/WK FEB-APR
BOS-SAN 1>2 MAY-
BOS-SEA 1>2 MAY-
BOS-SJU 2>4 MAY-
BOS-SRQ 1>0 JUN-
BOS-SXM 1/WK>0 JUN-
BOS-TPA 5>3 MAY-
EWR-FLL 5>3 MAY-
EWR-PBI 2>1 MAY-
EWR-RSW 2>1 MAY-
IAD-JFK 2>3 MAY-
IAD-LGB 1>2 MAY-
JFK-FLL 11>8 MAY-
JFK-LAS 4>5 JUN-
JFK-LAX 4>5 JUN-
JFK-MCO 10>9 MAY; 10>11 JUN-
JFK-PBI 9>5 MAY-
JFK-RDU 3>4 JUN-
JFK-SDQ 4>6 JUN-
JFK-SEA 1>2 MAY-
JFK-SJU 6>8 JUN-
JFK-SRQ 1>0 MAY-
JFK-STI 4>7 JUN-
JFK-RSW 6>3 MAY-
LGA-MCO 2>3 MAY-
LGA-PBI 2>1 MAY-
LGB-OAK 4>3 MAY-
LGB-PDX 2>3 MAY-
LGB-SFO 4>3 MAY-
LGB-SMF 2>3 MAY-
MCO-PSE 1>2 JUN-
MCO-PWM 1>1/WK MAY-
SJU-JAX 0>1 MAY-
SJU-TPA 0>2 MAY-
Looks like 25 daily SJU ops for B6.

BA
SJU-ANU 0>2/WK MAR-

CO
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?
CLE-DEN 1>2 JAN-
CLE-IAD 2>0 JAN-
CLE-ORD 6>5 JAN-
DEN-IAH 6>7 JAN-
EWR-IAD 6>2 JAN-
EWR-ORD 9>7 JAN-
GUM-HND 0>1/WK DEC-JAN
IAD-IAH 3>1 JAN-
IAH-MZT 2>1 MAR
IAH-ORD 8>9 JAN-
IAH-VER 3>2 JAN-FEB
LAX-BJX 0>1 NOV-

UA
DEN-CLE 2>1 JAN-FEB
DEN-EWR 3>1 JAN-FEB
DEN-IAH 5>3 DEC-
EWR-IAD 4>3 JAN-
EWR-ORD 9>7 DEC-
EWR-SFO 2>1 JAN-
IAD-IAH 2>5 JAN-
IAH-LAX 1>0 NOV-
IAH-ORD 5>2 JAN-
CLE-ORD 8>6 JAN-
SFO-EWR 3>1 JAN-

DL
ATL-CVG 7>8 JAN-FEB
ATL-MKE 7>5 FEB-APR Hmm...odd.
CVG-DTW 6>7 FEB-
DTW-AZO 8>7 JAN-APR
HNL-MSP 4/WK>0 FEB- No resumption
JFK-BOG 4/WK>1 FEB-
MEM-YYZ 1>0 JAN- AC retaliation route

F9
DEN-OMA 5>4 APR-
DEN-PHX 6>7 FEB-
IND-CUN 1/WK>2/WK FEB-APR
MCI-RSW 0>2/WK DEC-APR
MCO-MKE 10/WK>1 APR-
MKE-PHX 1>2 FEB-

SY
AUS-CUN 0>1/WK MAY- Does that make 3 airlines? DL/UA/SY

US
ALB-BUF 1>0 JAN-FEB
AUG-BHB 1>0 DEC-
AUG-BOS 3>0 DEC-
BDL-ROC 2>0 JAN-FEB
BHB-BOS 2>3 DEC-
BUF-ROC 2>0 JAN-FEB

V2
ATL-SDF 0>2 DEC-

ZK
BIL-HVR 0>1/WK NOV-
MCI-TBN 3>0 DEC-

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: flyinryan99
Posted 2010-10-19 07:55:05 and read 10927 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?

What about the equipment types? Did they upgrade the existing flights to larger aircraft then?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2010-10-19 07:59:57 and read 10892 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MEM-YYZ 1>0 JAN- AC retaliation route

This past June that route was at 4X daily...two each from AC and DL. Now it'll only be 1X daily on AC. Not the surprise of the century by any means.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2010-10-19 08:06:49 and read 10819 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL
ATL-CVG 7>8 JAN-FEB
ATL-MKE 7>5 FEB-APR Hmm...odd.
CVG-DTW 6>7 FEB-

CVG flight increases (albeit on hub-to-hub routes)? I'm surprised that a CVG route or two wasn't cut this week.

The ATL-MKE cuts aren't odd: F9 dropped ATL-MKE a while back. This must be DL's normal response to a competitor leaving the market, though the route still faces strong competition from FL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: smoot4208
Posted 2010-10-19 08:14:51 and read 10754 times.

Looks like B6 is ending SRQ service

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: EricR
Posted 2010-10-19 08:15:57 and read 10753 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?

I am not sure if they ever said they wouldn't cut capacity on overlapping routes, but it would be VERY surprising if they actually kept the same amount of capacity on these routes.

One of the big synergies of a merger is to dump the excess capacity where possible. I would question the judgment of management if they did not reduce this capacity. No sense in filling 10 planes at 70% capacity on a specific route when you can fill 7 planes at 90% capacity while simultaneously increasing yields by slightly reducing the number seats.

[Edited 2010-10-19 08:18:26]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: Transpac787
Posted 2010-10-19 08:19:30 and read 10722 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
HNL-MSP 4/WK>0 FEB- No resumption

DL would be colossally stupid to permanently cut this route. I'd expect to see an A332 or 763 on it LONG before it would be cut.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: ScottB
Posted 2010-10-19 08:22:09 and read 10675 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
9K
BOS-AUG 0>3 DEC-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US
ALB-BUF 1>0 JAN-FEB
AUG-BHB 1>0 DEC-
AUG-BOS 3>0 DEC-
BDL-ROC 2>0 JAN-FEB
BHB-BOS 2>3 DEC-
BUF-ROC 2>0 JAN-FEB

Interesting; did Colgan lose an EAS contract for AUG? Does this bode ill for the other dozen or so Colgan flights at BOS? It looks like they dropped that BDL-ROC-BUF-ALB-BUF-ROC-BDL milk run again, too. Putting an extra flight on BHB-BOS in the winter is insane since they are lucky to get 20% loads in the winter as it is.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
EWR-FLL 5>3 MAY-
EWR-PBI 2>1 MAY-
EWR-RSW 2>1 MAY-

Now we know where the BOS-EWR slots will come from.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: rgreenftm
Posted 2010-10-19 08:24:53 and read 10654 times.

AS is going to 1 daily SEA-MCO starting in May? That one really surprises me, it seems like that is often a full flight.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2010-10-19 08:25:06 and read 10652 times.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 4):
Looks like B6 is ending SRQ service

Will SRQ-BOS even start at all? It was supposed to start 11/18.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 6):
DL would be colossally stupid to permanently cut this route. I'd expect to see an A332 or 763 on it LONG before it would be cut.

Maybe DL needs the A333 to start their seasonal DTW-FCO a bit earlier than normal this year. I wonder if DTW-HNL will also ge the axe early.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: fun2fly
Posted 2010-10-19 08:38:58 and read 10551 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?

Not sure that applies in all cases...only had time to look up one.

For example, CLE>DEN goes from CO 1x ERJ 1x 738 and UA 2x CR& (350 seats) to CO 1x 739, 1x 738, and UA 1x CR7 (403 seats) in Jan. I'd suspect the UA flight to go mainline at somepoint also.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: EricR
Posted 2010-10-19 08:45:30 and read 10495 times.

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 10):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?

Not sure that applies in all cases...only had time to look up one.


See EWR-IAD, CLE-IAD, CLE-ORD

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: BOStonsox
Posted 2010-10-19 09:08:17 and read 10331 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 9):
Will SRQ-BOS even start at all? It was supposed to start 11/18.

I hope it does. I know it was supposed to be seasonal.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS-OAK 0>1 MAY-

Nice to see that one returning. I wonder if BOS-OAK has gone seasonal?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: fun2fly
Posted 2010-10-19 09:19:22 and read 10235 times.

268 prior vs. 200 future for IAD>CLE. How much can we really take from these changes until tha a/c are assigned (meaning all hub to hub will be mainline per the contract,no?)?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: crosswinds21
Posted 2010-10-19 09:22:14 and read 10208 times.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 8):
AS is going to 1 daily SEA-MCO starting in May? That one really surprises me, it seems like that is often a full flight.

Doesn't MCO have some of the lowest yields in the country? It's America's #1 destination airport, but it's virtually all tourist traffic.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2010-10-19 09:38:00 and read 10108 times.

"Looks like B6 is ending SRQ service"

I doubt they ar ending JFK-SRQ.

It's bookable once a day in July.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: rgreenftm
Posted 2010-10-19 09:43:13 and read 10058 times.

Quoting crosswinds21 (Reply 14):
Doesn't MCO have some of the lowest yields in the country? It's America's #1 destination airport, but it's virtually all tourist traffic.

Yes, I would agree with that, however if you do a search (I picked Jan), AS is drawing a $50 RT premium on their non-stop service vs their 1 stop competitors. That would seem to help with the yields some, yes?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: drerx7
Posted 2010-10-19 09:59:01 and read 9951 times.

Well in looking at CO.com and UAL.com I see the following changes for the combined carrier at IAH: I used Jan 4th.
IAH-DEN
2x738
4x753
1xCR7
2x320

IAH-IAD very interesting
1xE45
1xCR7
4x752

IAH-SFO
3x738
1x739
1x319
1x752

IAH-LAX
1x752
2x753
4x738
1x735

IAH-ORD
2x739
5x738
2x753
1xCR7
1x319

IAH-EWR
3x738
2x739
1x764
1x752
1x753
1x762
1x772
Not sure if these are finalized though, as the changes were not reflected on ual.com but they all showed up on CO.com.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2010-10-19 10:13:13 and read 9853 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-RDU 3>4 JUN-

That will bring B6 to 9 daily flights at RDU (4x JFK/BOS, 1x FLL) for one gate.. The most ever offered at RDU.. me thinks it may be time for them to look at adding another?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-19 10:33:24 and read 9735 times.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 2):
This past June that route was at 4X daily...two each from AC and DL. Now it'll only be 1X daily on AC. Not the surprise of the century by any means.

Typical of DL/NW to rush in with a bunch of capacity and then wuss out after the other carrier lasts 6 months or so. That's becoming their standard response.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
The ATL-MKE cuts aren't odd: F9 dropped ATL-MKE a while back. This must be DL's normal response to a competitor leaving the market, though the route still faces strong competition from FL.

It's odd because they are giving FL a license to print money. I wonder if the WN deal is already changing how DL reacts in MKE. They may be thinking it is closing (as a hub) anyway, so there is no point in fighting.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 4):
Looks like B6 is ending SRQ service
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 9):
Will SRQ-BOS even start at all? It was supposed to start 11/18.
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 15):
I doubt they ar ending JFK-SRQ.
It's bookable once a day in July.

Sorry, that is a typo. It should be:
JFK-SRQ 2>1 MAY-

So, they will have one roundtrip remaining. I don't doubt it sucks, though.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 6):
DL would be colossally stupid to permanently cut this route. I'd expect to see an A332 or 763 on it LONG before it would be cut.

I looked in OAG through September 2011 and there is no resumption listed.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 9):
I wonder if DTW-HNL will also ge the axe early.

It already got axed and it being run sporatically through January.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 7):
It looks like they dropped that BDL-ROC-BUF-ALB-BUF-ROC-BDL milk run again, too.

I think the temporary reinstatement was just a mistake. These routes are gone.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 8):
AS is going to 1 daily SEA-MCO starting in May? That one really surprises me, it seems like that is often a full flight.

LOW YIELD

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 12):
I wonder if BOS-OAK has gone seasonal?

Yes, it does not operate this Winter.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: AA1818
Posted 2010-10-19 10:40:35 and read 9673 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SJU-POS 3/WK>2/WK DEC-APR

I thought this route was ending? Is it a reduction before termination in April?

AA1818

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-19 10:45:59 and read 9627 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 5):
but it would be VERY surprising if they actually kept the same amount of capacity on these routes.
One of the big synergies of a merger is to dump the excess capacity where possible.

Of course eliminating competition is one of the synergies, I'm just a little surprised they were so brazen as to do it as their first order of business and in such obvious fashion. BTC should say "I told you so". It's not unexpected except in that they didn't do it slowly to conceal it.

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 1):
What about the equipment types? Did they upgrade the existing flights to larger aircraft then?
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?
CLE-DEN 1>2 JAN-
CLE-IAD 2>0 JAN-
CLE-ORD 6>5 JAN-
DEN-IAH 6>7 JAN-
EWR-IAD 6>2 JAN-
EWR-ORD 9>7 JAN-
GUM-HND 0>1/WK DEC-JAN
IAD-IAH 3>1 JAN-
IAH-MZT 2>1 MAR
IAH-ORD 8>9 JAN-
IAH-VER 3>2 JAN-FEB
LAX-BJX 0>1 NOV-

UA
DEN-CLE 2>1 JAN-FEB
DEN-EWR 3>1 JAN-FEB
DEN-IAH 5>3 DEC-
EWR-IAD 4>3 JAN-
EWR-ORD 9>7 DEC-
EWR-SFO 2>1 JAN-
IAD-IAH 2>5 JAN-
IAH-LAX 1>0 NOV-
IAH-ORD 5>2 JAN-
CLE-ORD 8>6 JAN-
SFO-EWR 3>1 JAN-

Here is a combined seat comparison...
CLE-DEN +12%
CLE-IAD -22%
CLE-IAH -15%
CLE-ORD -11%
DEN-IAH -6%
EWR-DEN -24%
EWR-IAD -30%
EWR-LAX -11%
EWR-ORD +2%
EWR-SFO -14%
IAD-IAH +73%
IAH-LAX -22%
IAH-ORD -5%
IAH-SFO -11%

Other than IAD-IAH it's pretty bleak...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2010-10-19 10:54:08 and read 9560 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA
AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-PAP 3/WK>0 DEC-APR Earlier end date

Will Eagle still fly this one via the Dominican Republic (AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-SDQ-PAP and AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-STI-PAP)? Seemed like an unusual thing to start up after Haiti's economy virtually collapsed - who did they expect to fly it? Plus, there didn't seem to be any pressing demand for it in the first place. The one stops make much more sense since the demand between Haiti and DR and then between DR and PR is indeed strong.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AM
ONT-GDL 0>1 NOV-

This is a surprise - I thought Mexican airlines couldn't add a single thing until Cat I status returns. Is AM being hopeful, or trying to get away with using a "seasonal" authority? Either way why wouldn't they chase after more lucrative opportunities than this marginal route?

Then again, I'm sure the great folks at ONT are just overjoyed to (possibly) getting their international flights back!  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS
ACV-LAX 0>1 DEC-

This is a neat addition. Have they flown this nonstop before?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LAX-GDL 1>2 FEB-
LAX-PVR 1>2 FEB-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SJC-GDL 0>4/WK DEC-
SMF-GDL 0>3/WK DEC-

Great to see AS capitalizing on opportunities to fill the MX void. At one point the viability of their huge Mexican network seemed to be called to question, but now with continued growth to both Mexico AND Hawaii I think its safe to say that exciting times are in store for us as well as AS.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AV
LAX-BOG 5/WK>0 JAN-


Oh no! I guess this means they'll be pulling out of LAX entirely. I guess the news isn't all great for us here at LAX, but we are still getting TK, IB, and lots of exciting expansion from AA, UA, DL, VX, NH, and CO on the international front!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6
ACK-JFK 0>2 MAY-

Very cool, when did they start flying this one 2x daily? Any chance for a BOS-ACK service? After all, with all the flights into BOS these days, it could easily get filled on connections alone!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS-OAK 0>1 MAY-

Haha, I never knew this sort of route was seasonal. Either way, it's great to see it coming back.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS-PLS 0>1/WK FEB-APR

Did they load JFK-PLS yet? I don't remember you posting it, but it's hard to keep track of everything  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS-SRQ 1>0 JUN-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-SRQ 1>0 MAY-

Are they really dropping out of SRQ entirely? The only seasonal B6 station is ACK, but they keep a year-round presence there thanks to the Cape Air codeshare. Since B6 doesn't really do the whole seasonal thing much I am worried this could be the first B6 station to get the axe in over 2 years...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
EWR-FLL 5>3 MAY-
EWR-PBI 2>1 MAY-
EWR-RSW 2>1 MAY-

Oh, so this is where those EWR slots came from. IIRC in one of your recent posts they already cut EWR-Florida ops about a week or two ago - what gives? No reason to abandon these longstanding flights that made B6 a top EWR carrier (#2 before the DL/NW merger) if they don't have to, right? This opens up opportunities for UA/CO and WN to fill their void...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IAD-JFK 2>3 MAY-
IAD-LGB 1>2 MAY-

Great to see someone other than UA committed to IAD. I was starting to get worried they would lose all of their LCC service!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-LAX 4>5 JUN-

This route must really be doing well for them. First they announced it then cut it before it even begin, citing weak market response. Then they timidly started it at 2x daily, only to double that frequency (in spite of fierce UA/AA/DL/VX competition) about a year later. Now it will increase AGAIN. Go B6! Oh, and feel free to add additional stations out of LAX too  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-SDQ 4>6 JUN-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-STI 4>7 JUN-

I knew the DR was a B6 goldmine, but it didn't know it was this big! Is this a regular seasonal increase, or a massive addition?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LGB-OAK 4>3 MAY-
LGB-PDX 2>3 MAY-
LGB-SFO 4>3 MAY-
LGB-SMF 2>3 MAY-

It's a little alarming to see so many changes at LGB. I guess it could be that the slot issue forces B6 to constantly analyze opportunity costs (i.e. that 4th OAK flight is doing fine, but I can make more money adding a 3rd PDX flight) but I suspect it has more to do with poor performance on the LGB-Bay Area routes. B6 has a virtual monopoly on prime intra-California sectors and yet still can't do well?!?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-JAX 0>1 MAY-
AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-TPA 0>2 MAY-
Looks like 25 daily AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU ops for B6.

25 daily ops out of AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU is extremely impressive indeed. I just wonder if they will be add much more out of AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU - they chose to serve EWR-BOS over EWR-AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU, for instance.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BA
AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU-ANU 0>2/WK MAR-

Oh, the new BA AND San Juan - Luis Munoz Marin International (SJU / TJSJ), Puerto Rico">SJU flight won't be a nonstop to/from LGW??

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Some significant merger schedule changes for the first time. Capacity in overlapping routes is pretty severely cut...exactly what they said they wouldn't do, right?

Well, UA and CO were both sending A LOT of Express/Connection metal on what will become hub-hub routes that MUST be flown entirely by mainline. Upgrading ORD-EWR and DEN-IAH will be easy, but even IAD-EWR and IAD-CLE (for the next 2 years) will have to go from all prop/RJ to all mainline.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CLE-IAD 2>0 JAN-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
EWR-IAD 6>2 JAN-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IAD-IAH 3>1 JAN-

Haha, this does not surprise me at all. CO would much rather serve DCA than far-flung IAD  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
GUM-HND 0>1/WK DEC-JAN

WHAT?!? How on earth did they get the rights to fly this? Is it just a temporary charter-type thing, or...?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IAH-LAX 1>0 NOV-

Good. This ridiculously long RJ service on a prime route should have never began in the first place!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MEM-YYZ 1>0 JAN- AC retaliation route

Surprise surprise, AC won that battle. MEM was/is probably supporting them with all kinds of marketing assistance, subsidies, etc. to stick it out. NW didn't even fly this one while they were doing MEM-YVR, IIRC. So DL - who was never big in Canada like NW was - had no chance of pulling it off!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
HNL-MSP 4/WK>0 FEB- No resumption

It's surprising to see this one go, but then again, UA dropped ORD-HNL for all those years only to bring it back as its flagship Flight 1. Maybe DL will come to its senses like it did with MSP-EGE and at least retain a token seasonal frequency on it, though. I'm sure the plane will make a lot more money serving some VFR-heavy African or Asian market than getting a bunch of penny-penching Midwesterners to Hawaii anyhow  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SY
AUS-CUN 0>1/WK MAY- Does that make 3 airlines? DL/UA/SY

Well, the demand/numbers must be there for 5 different airlines (F9, VB, SY, DL, and now UA/CO) to have started or seriously considered starting it recently. All three airlines you mention plan to fly it weekly seasonally, so it shouldn't be THAT hard to pull off. I think SY has flown it before, so they must have done well enough the first time around to bring it back!

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
CVG flight increases (albeit on hub-to-hub routes)? I'm surprised that a CVG route or two wasn't cut this week.

Well, they'll have to bolster links on hub-hub routes when they want to cut a bunch more flights  . That said, CVG hasn't been cut for a little while now. Maybe with the economy starting to turn around the worst is behind them...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: BOStonsox
Posted 2010-10-19 10:57:35 and read 9543 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Yes, it does not operate this Winter.

Yeah, I knew they dropped it. I was surprised to see that it will be back in May, since I hadn't heard that it was ever coming back. Hopefully it improves enough to go year-round. It seemed so wierd that IAD-OAK was working and BOS-OAK wasn't, even if B6 does fly BOS-SJC/SFO. So B6 serves 39, not 38 destinations from BOS, just not all at the same time.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 7):
Interesting; did Colgan lose an EAS contract for AUG? Does this bode ill for the other dozen or so Colgan flights at BOS?

Yep, Colgan lost it and 9K is in. I'm surprised that US Airways Express is still going at BOS. Now for 9K to enact a codeshare with B6 on LEB/RKD/AUG and that'll be all right.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-10-19 10:59:33 and read 9535 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Well, the demand/numbers must be there for 5 different airlines (F9, VB, SY, DL, and now UA/CO) to have started or seriously considered starting it recently.

Frontier hasn't flown AUS-CUN for yonks - 2005?

It was a disaster for them. There were horror stories of flights going out with less than a dozen pax and the service lasted scarcely three months.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: Transpac787
Posted 2010-10-19 11:17:03 and read 9602 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
I looked in OAG through September 2011 and there is no resumption listed.

Considering it hasn't been mentioned on any of the DL bulletins, I won't believe it until I see it from them. Forgive my skepticism  

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: jetbluefan1
Posted 2010-10-19 11:20:24 and read 9562 times.

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 23):
Yeah, I knew they dropped it. I was surprised to see that it will be back in May, since I hadn't heard that it was ever coming back. Hopefully it improves enough to go year-round. It seemed so wierd that IAD-OAK was working and BOS-OAK wasn't, even if B6 does fly BOS-SJC/SFO. So B6 serves 39, not 38 destinations from BOS, just not all at the same time.

BOS-SFO is also picking up a third frequency.

Nice to see BOS-OAK come back, even if only seasonal.

JetBluefan1

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: ASFlyer
Posted 2010-10-19 12:18:18 and read 9175 times.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 8):
AS is going to 1 daily SEA-MCO starting in May? That one really surprises me, it seems like that is often a full flight.

Looking at the schedules on the employee travel site, it looks like this will be down to one daily from May 1 - June 4. On June 5 it returns to double daily. Possibly this is to support additional Hawaii flying until they get another new a/c? Just a thought...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: beryllium
Posted 2010-10-19 12:52:00 and read 8947 times.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 8):
AS is going to 1 daily SEA-MCO starting in May? That one really surprises me, it seems like that is often a full flight
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
LOW YIELD

... combined with HIGH COST (SEAMCO is one of the longest domestic routes in the U.S. - burns a lot of fuel)...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: rgreenftm
Posted 2010-10-19 13:02:42 and read 8831 times.

Everyone seems to be missing what I said in regards to low yields/high cost:

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 16):
Yes, I would agree with that, however if you do a search (I picked Jan), AS is drawing a $50 RT premium on their non-stop service vs their 1 stop competitors. That would seem to help with the yields some, yes?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: MKE22
Posted 2010-10-19 13:46:11 and read 8527 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
I wonder if the WN deal is already changing how DL reacts in MKE. They may be thinking it is closing (as a hub) anyway, so there is no point in fighting.

Still might have to do more with F9 cutting the route.. There isn't any indication that WN is or isn't going to give up FL's fight vs. F9 in MKE..

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-10-19 13:53:44 and read 8488 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Typical of DL/NW to rush in with a bunch of capacity and then wuss out after the other carrier lasts 6 months or so. That's becoming their standard response.

I think it is a good and proper response for DL/NW to do this to drive AC out of the market. AC obviously blinked first.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: OA412
Posted 2010-10-19 14:02:39 and read 8392 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Typical of DL/NW to rush in with a bunch of capacity and then wuss out after the other carrier lasts 6 months or so. That's becoming their standard response.

  Right like you've never seen any other carrier throw capacity at a market when a competitor enters it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2010-10-19 14:20:03 and read 8283 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IAD-IAH 2>5 JAN-

Okay, I give up. I've done the CO ERJ145LR IAD-IAH. So now we have five of them?
Or does it mean we're now counting Expressjet service out of concourse B and UAX service out of concourse C as one service with no change in frequency?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2010-10-19 14:26:49 and read 8213 times.

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 17):
IAH-IAD very interesting
1xE45
1xCR7
4x752

This answers my question.
I should have read further before writing.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: AUSisAwesome
Posted 2010-10-19 16:46:18 and read 7455 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SY
AUS-CUN 0>1/WK MAY- Does that make 3 airlines? DL/UA/SY

They just love us!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: EricR
Posted 2010-10-19 17:14:42 and read 7293 times.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 32):
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Typical of DL/NW to rush in with a bunch of capacity and then wuss out after the other carrier lasts 6 months or so. That's becoming their standard response.

Right like you've never seen any other carrier throw capacity at a market when a competitor enters it.

Most competitors do, but NW was the most aggressive, IMO, when it came to protecting its home turf.

In addition, I remember the battle a few years ago with AA to LGA. AA was in the midst of launching N/S flights to a lot of smaller cities in the midwest to LGA. NW quickly followed suit and once AA backed out, NW followed suit shortly thereafter. DSM and FNT come immediately to mind, but I know there were many more.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2010-10-19 17:19:29 and read 7263 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Oh no! I guess this means they'll be pulling out of LAX entirely.

It was announced a few weeks ago that since Avianca and TACA now being one holding company, they are rationalizing routes including TACA instead providing a daily LAX-SAL-BOG link.

Quite good timings:
LAX-SAL 0652-1347
SAL-BOG 1455-1900

BOG-SAL 1155-1400
SAL-LAX 1505-1825

The biggest news imo is actually TA starting offer flights other than its traditional middle of the night red-eye service and developing new connecting waves at SAL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-19 18:17:14 and read 6947 times.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 20):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SJU-POS 3/WK>2/WK DEC-APR
I thought this route was ending? Is it a reduction before termination in April?
AA1818

Correct, they moved up POS and PAP changes.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
This is a surprise - I thought Mexican airlines couldn't add a single thing until Cat I status returns.

They also added DEN. Don't understand how. Perhaps they are just hoping.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
This is a neat addition. Have they flown this nonstop before?

I don't know if they have flown ACV-LAX before, but I'd bet they have.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Great to see AS capitalizing on opportunities to fill the MX void.
Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
It was a disaster for them. There were horror stories of flights going out with less than a dozen pax and the service lasted scarcely three months.

What's interesting is that F9 hasnt added any MX routes. They used to be so aggressive with routes like AUS-CUN and now three other carriers think they can make work what F9 failed at. Aside from that, I'd have thought F9 would go after something MX gave up instead of letting AS suck it all up.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Are they really dropping out of SRQ entirely?

Above I point out there is a type. It's supposed to be JFK-SRQ 2>1 leaving the station with a whopping 1 RT.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Oh, so this is where those EWR slots came from.

Appears so. It will be interesting to see if WN flies to Florida in the B6 void or to BOS to finish off B6.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Great to see someone other than UA committed to IAD. I was starting to get worried they would lose all of their LCC service!

Wait till next winter  
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-SDQ 4>6 JUN-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JFK-STI 4>7 JUN-

I knew the DR was a B6 goldmine, but it didn't know it was this big! Is this a regular seasonal increase, or a massive addition?

I also gasped at that level of service. I believe that is a new record level of capacity both for B6 and for STI as a whole.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Haha, this does not surprise me at all. CO would much rather serve DCA than far-flung IAD

I assume you are joking since they now have a hub in IAD.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
WHAT?!? How on earth did they get the rights to fly this? Is it just a temporary charter-type thing, or...?

I thought the same thing, but sometimes the bilaterals have exceptions for the Holiday periods. It might also be a code share not properly listed.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
MEM was/is probably supporting them with all kinds of marketing assistance, subsidies, etc. to stick it out.

To my knowledge, MEM is one of the few airports in the USA that offers nothing in terms of incentives. They have put all their eggs in DL's basket and are waiting for them to be slowly euthanized.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):

Well, they'll have to bolster links on hub-hub routes when they want to cut a bunch more flights

I think you are right. Adding hub-2-hub flights isn't a good thing for CVg. I still say you won't see anything else in CVG cut until they conclude negotiations over dumping $90 million in facilities on the airport.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 25):
Considering it hasn't been mentioned on any of the DL bulletins, I won't believe it until I see it from them. Forgive my skepticism

I tend to believe it because the plane was checker boarded with DTW-HNL on alternating days, so the plane would just sit the other 3 days unless they cancel it.

Quoting MKE22 (Reply 30):
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
I wonder if the WN deal is already changing how DL reacts in MKE. They may be thinking it is closing (as a hub) anyway, so there is no point in fighting.

Still might have to do more with F9 cutting the route.. There isn't any indication that WN is or isn't going to give up FL's fight vs. F9 in MKE..

People keep saying that, but if F9 leaves, then DL shouldn't cut too unless they want FL to make a whole lot of money. Up until now, letting FL make a whole lot of money anywhere was not something DL allowed. I think they are going to ease off FL for a while because they know they can no longer influence the outcome with pressuring overcapacity.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Typical of DL/NW to rush in with a bunch of capacity and then wuss out after the other carrier lasts 6 months or so. That's becoming their standard response.

I think it is a good and proper response for DL/NW to do this to drive AC out of the market. AC obviously blinked first.

AC didn't blink first? DL dropped it. AC is still in the market as far as I know.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2010-10-19 18:18:36 and read 6949 times.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 6):
DL would be colossally stupid to permanently cut this route. I'd expect to see an A332 or 763 on it LONG before it would be cut.

While it'd be surprising if DL cut (or suspended) this route, if it wasn't viable as an A333, it's not going to be viable as a B763 or A332. A domestic-configured B763, perhaps, but it'd lack the range to operate MSP/HNL with a full payload. DL's last domestic-configured B763/ER were converted with Business Elite a few years ago.

It's really not surprising that DL's cutting capacity into HNL (its contract fares continue to be a price leader), but it is surprising MSP/HNL was the route chosen (especially during the winter season, and especially given the lax in A330 during the winter season). Obviously SLC & West Coast flights must make more sense for DL (probably because of the equipment they're operated with).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: laca773
Posted 2010-10-19 18:33:05 and read 6841 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

AV
LAX-BOG 5/WK>0 JAN-

I was wondering if and when this might happen. They are down to 2 762ERs and as many 757s as well since they transferred the remaining 75s to Aero Gal as well as a 76X. I was hoping this was only going to get a seasonal two month axing, but apparently not.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):

This is a surprise - I thought Mexican airlines couldn't add a single thing until Cat I status returns. Is AM being hopeful, or trying to get away with using a "seasonal" authority? Either way why wouldn't they chase after more lucrative opportunities than this marginal route?

When they cancelled their service to ONT earlier this year, they did say they would be back @ ONT for the busy Winter Holiday season. Many of us were not going to hold our breath about this. In any event, it is good to see them bring it back, even if just on a seasonal basis. I'm interested to know if they will use a 73G or E90. Also, if they got decent fees @ ONT.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 37):
It was announced a few weeks ago that since Avianca and TACA now being one holding company, they are rationalizing routes including TACA instead providing a daily LAX-SAL-BOG link.

Quite good timings:
LAX-SAL 0652-1347
SAL-BOG 1455-1900

BOG-SAL 1155-1400
SAL-LAX 1505-1825

The biggest news imo is actually TA starting offer flights other than its traditional middle of the night red-eye service and developing new connecting waves at SAL.

This does make sense though a disappointment to see the nonstop go away which was going to happen soon or later since they are phasing out their 762ERs and 757s too.

Will this direct flight via SAL be flown with a A321?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-10-19 18:37:57 and read 6827 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
What's interesting is that F9 hasnt added any MX routes. They used to be so aggressive with routes like AUS-CUN and now three other carriers think they can make work what F9 failed at.

What would they add? They surely wouldn't attempt AUS-CUN again. Or BNA-CUN, I think.

DEN-MEX? Maybe but it took a couple of million in subsidies to persuade Mexicana to do it and United only has it as seasonal. And I don't see any point in going head to head with Alaska on the west coast.

They seem quite content adding (or restoring) routes that did go well.Your OP shows that IND-CUN is going to twice weekly this year, and it will be interesting to see how STL-PVR does, which is a new one.

Next year (winter) will be quite jolly, I believe there'll be a couple of surprises. But they won't necessarily be Mexico and I doubt there will be too many "red meat compete" routes.

Under new management. Think different.  

mariner

[Edited 2010-10-19 18:45:13]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: FL787
Posted 2010-10-19 18:54:42 and read 6684 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
This is a surprise - I thought Mexican airlines couldn't add a single thing until Cat I status returns. Is AM being hopeful, or trying to get away with using a "seasonal" authority? Either way why wouldn't they chase after more lucrative opportunities than this marginal route?
Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
They also added DEN. Don't understand how. Perhaps they are just hoping.

This doesn't count as new service because AM already had the authority to fly both these routes before the status change in Mexico. I guess AM was smart in applying for a ton of routes they rarely or never actually flew. For example, I believe AM was awarded the authority to fly MSP-MEX but never actually flew the route. Therefore I don't think there is anything stopping AM from starting MSP-MEX currently if they so desired.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: drerx7
Posted 2010-10-20 04:24:32 and read 5632 times.

I don't think this is final for CO/UA as I believe others have stated that UAx will be coming in on some other routes out of IAH/EWR. And 4x752 daily on IAH-IAD...I wonder if there will be other UA752 tags from IAH or will these birds just be on IAD-IAH-IAD-elsewhere.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-10-20 04:50:12 and read 5563 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
To my knowledge, MEM is one of the few airports in the USA that offers nothing in terms of incentives. They have put all their eggs in DL's basket and are waiting for them to be slowly euthanized.

There is a fairly good size airline named FEDEX that calls MEM home, and has quite a few eggs in its basket.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 06:09:45 and read 5408 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 39):
While it'd be surprising if DL cut (or suspended) this route, if it wasn't viable as an A333, it's not going to be viable as a B763 or A332. A domestic-configured B763, perhaps, but it'd lack the range to operate MSP/HNL with a full payload. DL's last domestic-configured B763/ER were converted with Business Elite a few years ago.

Just verified on delta.com that the flight is gone now and forever. Not saying they couldn't change their mind...but it isn't a mistake.

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
What would they add? They surely wouldn't attempt AUS-CUN again. Or BNA-CUN, I think.

I don't think MX flew any of those anyway.

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
DEN-MEX? Maybe but it took a couple of million in subsidies to persuade Mexicana to do it and United only has it as seasonal. And I don't see any point in going head to head with Alaska on the west coast.

Why is it AS can go to GDL and MEX and others to MTY, but F9 seems unable to go to anything beyond beaches? That's where the MX landrush is occurring...not in the beaches. DL just reduced SLC-CUN a week or two ago.

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
They seem quite content adding (or restoring) routes that did go well.

If they did go well then why did they drop them?

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
Under new management. Think different.

"Restoring routes that did go well", but were dropped doesn't sound like thinking differently does it?  
Quoting FL787 (Reply 42):
This doesn't count as new service because AM already had the authority to fly both these routes before the status change in Mexico. I guess AM was smart in applying for a ton of routes they rarely or never actually flew. For example, I believe AM was awarded the authority to fly MSP-MEX but never actually flew the route. Therefore I don't think there is anything stopping AM from starting MSP-MEX currently if they so desired.

Good theory. I guess dormancy doesn't exist for AM.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 44):
There is a fairly good size airline named FEDEX that calls MEM home, and has quite a few eggs in its basket.

Gosh, I've never heard of this "Fedex". Can you direct me to the website where they sell passenger tickets? I can't fit into one of their cardboard boxes.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: dldtw1962
Posted 2010-10-20 06:18:08 and read 5372 times.

I'm in shock over B6's dropping out of the SRQ market. And all the seat reductions on the CO/UA routes. Over all, I'm shocked
at the whole thing. Also, noticing B6's cuts to/from the Caribbean from BOS.

Chuck

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 06:26:49 and read 5338 times.

Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 46):
I'm in shock over B6's dropping out of the SRQ market.

STOP.

I've corrected this twice above. It should have said JFK-SRQ 2>1. They will keep 1 RT in SRQ for the Summer.

A.net doesn't let you edit quoted posts so I can't fix it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2010-10-20 06:29:14 and read 5329 times.

As always, enilria, I am grateful to you for this weekly information. Thank you.   

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 07:23:32 and read 5182 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 48):
As always, enilria, I am grateful to you for this weekly information. Thank you.

Thanks

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-10-20 07:28:02 and read 5172 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Gosh, I've never heard of this "Fedex". Can you direct me to the website where they sell passenger tickets? I can't fit into one of their cardboard boxes.





Since the discussion was about MEM not giving incentives , and has put all its eggs into one basket(Delta) and is waiting for them to be be euthanized. I thought I would point out that FEDEX is a much larger force at MEM (politically and financially) than Delta. MEM is one of the lowest cost airports in the US mainly because they receive extensive revenues fron FEDEX for its massive evening operation which most US airports don't have. This subsidizes the running of the airport during the day, thus incentives are not needed. I didn't realize that this was only a passenger airline forum

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 07:44:37 and read 5096 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 50):
This subsidizes the running of the airport during the day, thus incentives are not needed. I didn't realize that this was only a passenger airline forum

Clearly the presence of Fedex has little to do with the level of competition for passenger service at MEM. It's a nice bit of trivia on this thread, but I don't think UPS has done much for SDF's air service do you?

Regardless, airlines demand incentives these days. MEM and CVG have traditionally had both substantial freight operations, no passenger airlines incentives, and minimal hub competition. I don't see the truth in your argument that the presence of Fedex in MEM is somehow helping competition. Clearly it isn't helping much as it is one of the most dominated hubs in the USA...if not the world.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2010-10-20 07:56:06 and read 5075 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IAD-IAH 3>1 JAN-

Haha, this does not surprise me at all. CO would much rather serve DCA than far-flung IAD .

Three responses:

(1) I guess that's a point-of-view thing. For instance, I live equal-distant from all three DC area airports, so I use the one that can give me the best fare or most convenient schedule. Occasionally, I fly *out* of one airport and fly *back* to another (for instance BWI-LAX-IAD) because of a significantly lower fare.

(2) At Washington-Dulles -- CO, COex, UA, and UAX services are all being rationalized so that the *new* UAL doesn't wind up competing against *itself*. One COex is being replaced by mainline and one UAX is being replaced with mainline. Rumors are that the replacements will each be 757s.

(3) COs DCA-IAH is a money-maker. That's a good thing, yes? And since CO has more gates and more departures at DCA than UA, UA might wind up moving over to the CO gates.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-10-20 08:34:31 and read 4991 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 51):
Clearly it isn't helping much as it is one of the most dominated hubs in the USA...if not the world.

There is very little preventing another carrier from starting or increasing at MEM and in effect the low costs there are in effect an incentive.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 08:50:53 and read 4955 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 53):
There is very little preventing another carrier from starting or increasing at MEM

The Air21 law technically mandates that no airport "prevent" new air carrier entry, although I would argue DCA and LGA are close to violation.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 53):
in effect the low costs there are in effect an incentive.

How about zero costs and many other airports thanks to the incentives? How about zero costs + a subsidy to guarantee against losses? So, you could call it a subsidy, but the airlines wouldn't consider it one. Additionally, the CPE for the hub carrier is typically 30-50% of the CPE for the other carriers, so it probably isn't as cheap for competitors as you think.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: CODC10
Posted 2010-10-20 08:51:06 and read 4969 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
Here is a combined seat comparison...

I wouldn't get too caught up with the doom-and-gloom... while EWR-DEN cuts are surprising (down to 4x/day), the capacity now probably better reflects the demand of the route, and the flights will be operating with larger jets than before (737-800/900 and 757-200).

Many of the rest of the cuts are seasonal reductions in service (like IAH-LAX) and not necessarily indicative of a 'slash-and-burn' philosophy of the merger. Plus, in order to add new service, overlapping capacity can and should be cut, which will allow the combined carrier to enter new markets with the capacity already in the system.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
WHAT?!? How on earth did they get the rights to fly this? Is it just a temporary charter-type thing, or...?

This is a temporary route, I believe sold as a public charter. I expect CO to get GUM-HND rights in the next round.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-10-20 10:33:20 and read 4834 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):

Why is it AS can go to GDL and MEX and others to MTY, but F9 seems unable to go to anything beyond beaches? That's where the MX landrush is occurring...not in the beaches. DL just reduced SLC-CUN a week or two ago.

So if the landrush is occurring on the city routes and Frontier doesn't fly the city routes, why did you ask why they aren't adding anything?

And no one has rushed into DEN-MEX.

  

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
If they did go well then why did they drop them?

That's been discussed here many times. They dropped 'em because SM retrenched the airline to DEN when oil started going through the roof.

A route that is profitable with oil at $50 a barrel may be break even with oil at $70 and lose a bundle with oil at $120.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: avek00
Posted 2010-10-20 12:08:19 and read 4720 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 55):
Plus, in order to add new service, overlapping capacity can and should be cut, which will allow the combined carrier to enter new markets with the capacity already in the system.

That, plus there will likely need to be some "slack" in the system to allow for full product integration to get underway in 2011.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 12:29:45 and read 4685 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 55):
I wouldn't get too caught up with the doom-and-gloom

It's not doom and gloom...and it's expected. I'm just surprised they were so brazen as to make it obvious.

Quoting mariner (Reply 56):
So if the landrush is occurring on the city routes and Frontier doesn't fly the city routes, why did you ask why they aren't adding anything?

Because Frontier was quite active in all sorts of Mexico routes "back in the day".

Quoting mariner (Reply 56):
And no one has rushed into DEN-MEX.

AM has announced it for Winter. I'm surprised you missed that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-10-20 12:34:26 and read 4670 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 58):
Because Frontier was quite active in all sorts of Mexico routes "back in the day".

That was then. And only ever to one inland city, which was a turkey for them, as you know.

This is now.

Quoting enilria (Reply 58):
AM has announced it for Winter. I'm surprised you missed that.

AeroMexico announced DEN back in 2008:

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_11123078

"AeroMexico to start DIA flights"

What did I miss?

mariner

[Edited 2010-10-20 12:42:48]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: drerx7
Posted 2010-10-20 13:50:54 and read 4562 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 52):

(2) At Washington-Dulles -- CO, COex, UA, and UAX services are all being rationalized so that the *new* UAL doesn't wind up competing against *itself*. One COex is being replaced by mainline and one UAX is being replaced with mainline. Rumors are that the replacements will each be 757s.

Not rumor - fact - those flights are loaded in the system.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-10-20 14:11:52 and read 4512 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 54):
How about zero costs and many other airports thanks to the incentives? How about zero costs + a subsidy to guarantee against losses? So, you could call it a subsidy, but the airlines wouldn't consider it one. Additionally, the CPE for the hub carrier is typically 30-50% of the CPE for the other carriers, so it probably isn't as cheap for competitors as you think.

Hubsite airports typically do not offer incentive.
MEM realizes what they have with DL (and with FedEx) is something that no other airline would recreate so it is best to support the incumbant. Any airline can start whatever they want, but it is almost in all cases going to compete against DL. Thus MEM would likely have to make such incentives available to DL and/or risk weakening their position by throwing out the welcome mat to someone else.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: CODC10
Posted 2010-10-20 14:29:30 and read 4475 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 58):
It's not doom and gloom...and it's expected. I'm just surprised they were so brazen as to make it obvious.

I'm not sure how they could do it surreptitiously.

Furthermore, I don't think there was any doubt that hub-hub service would be reduced as a result of integration, as the schedules are rationalized and matched to demand.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-10-20 15:58:57 and read 4366 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 62):
Furthermore, I don't think there was any doubt that hub-hub service would be reduced as a result of integration, as the schedules are rationalized and matched to demand.

The NW-DL merger actually increased hub-to-hub capacity on many routes.
DTW-ATL, DTW-SLC, MEM-SLC, MSP-ATL are all up significantly post-merger. Some due to new connection flows, some due to aircraft reposition, and some to enable non-rev and deadheading.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: drerx7
Posted 2010-10-20 16:41:27 and read 4306 times.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 63):
The NW-DL merger actually increased hub-to-hub capacity on many routes.
DTW-ATL, DTW-SLC, MEM-SLC, MSP-ATL are all up significantly post-merger. Some due to new connection flows, some due to aircraft reposition, and some to enable non-rev and deadheading.

And I expect - contrary to many - the same thing to happen with UA/CO. I don't see why some would think that a route like IAH-LAX, already heavy on O&D and has seen every type of mainline aircraft besides the 747, would not ultimately see more traffic when you place another hub on the other end. The Jan schedule reflects winter reductions based on typical traffic flows, I have no reason to think that a UA 763/777/744 would not appear on this route; especially when you consider aircraft repositioning, hub-hub capacity, or the employee non-reving. Look at the sole 753 on IAH-CLE.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2010-10-20 16:58:26 and read 4276 times.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 63):
The NW-DL merger actually increased hub-to-hub capacity on many routes.

But the NW legacy hub-hub routes saw sharp decreases, notably DTW/MSP which is now operating 9x daily vs. the 14x-15x pre-merger - and with smaller planes.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 17:17:13 and read 4249 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 59):
AeroMexico announced DEN back in 2008:

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_11123078

"AeroMexico to start DIA flights"

What did I miss?

They hadn't flown DEN-MEX in 6+ months and personally I don't think they were gonna come back until MX bailed, but I guess that's not easily proven.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 61):

Hubsite airports typically do not offer incentive.

That used to be the case. It's no longer the case.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 61):
MEM realizes what they have with DL

What they have is just what CVG had. How's that working out?

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 62):
I'm not sure how they could do it surreptitiously.

They could have done it a little at a time so it wasn't too obvious.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2010-10-20 17:44:42 and read 4208 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 65):
But the NW legacy hub-hub routes saw sharp decreases, notably DTW/MSP which is now operating 9x daily vs. the 14x-15x pre-merger - and with smaller planes.

True, although mostly they eliminated the wing-tip flights but they still have close to the same spacing of flights throughout the day.

Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
That used to be the case. It's no longer the case.

What large hubs are offering incentives?

Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
What they have is just what CVG had. How's that working out?

You say this every single week, its getting old. My response is just what is MEM supposed to do? Tell DL to take a hike because "everybody knows its over"? It doesn't work that way sorry.


Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
They could have done it a little at a time so it wasn't too obvious.

It isn't that obvious, only people who pour over the schedules would notice. It is a fluid situation. Like when NW & DL were synchronizing their schedules, there is a lot of fluctuation when trying to run schedules on two different systems with two different airlines in the interim time.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2010-10-20 18:02:05 and read 4180 times.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 67):
What large hubs are offering incentives?

DFW offered over $400K in incentives to lure VX. I'm sure there's others.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-10-20 19:01:03 and read 4089 times.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 67):
My response is just what is MEM supposed to do? Tell DL to take a hike because "everybody knows its over"? It doesn't work that way sorry.

If you think offering incentives to new entrants is telling the hub carrier to take a hike you are already admitting the hub is so fragile that (heaven forbid) any kind of competition is going to kill it.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 67):
It isn't that obvious, only people who pour over the schedules would notice.

The media reads the analyst coverage and several publish summaries of capacity changes.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 68):
DFW offered over $400K in incentives to lure VX. I'm sure there's others.
Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 67):
What large hubs are offering incentives?

DFW has the biggest program in the country.
IAH/SLC/PHX/MSP/DTW/IAD/FLL/SEA/SFO/LAS/CLE/BWI/PHL/MIA all have programs ranging from small to large. The notable exceptions are ATL/ORD/CLT/MEM/CVG.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-10-20 19:57:36 and read 4002 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
They hadn't flown DEN-MEX in 6+ months and personally I don't think they were gonna come back until MX bailed, but I guess that's not easily proven.

Whereas I assumed that AeroMexico had discovered the same intense seasonality of the market, as United has:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2010/10/11/daily25.html

"United will offer once-daily service between DIA and Mexico City on Airbus 319 and Airbus 320 aircraft between Dec. 16 and Jan. 3."

That's a fairly short season.

AeroMexico will also resume the flights - 3 x weekly - from December 15. Whether those flights will continue year round is unknown to me, but I guess the absence of Mexicana may help that.

Given given that DIA provided huge givebacks to Mexicana in the first place, it probably isn't a bobby-dazzler of a route.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 10/22/2010:9K/AA/AM/AS/B6/CO/DL/F9/UA
Username: CO767FA
Posted 2010-10-20 20:19:45 and read 3959 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 55):
while EWR-DEN cuts are surprising (down to 4x/day), the capacity now probably better reflects the demand of the route

The reduction is from January 4th thru February 16 - February 17 the old UA has 3 flights to EWR and old CO has 3 flights to EWR, for a total of 6 flights a day.


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