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Topic: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-03 17:01:53 and read 11700 times.

This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

How to read:
Flights are daily except as noted "/wk" which means per week.
ABE-MDT 2>10/WK means a reduction from 2 daily flights to 10 flights per week which is about 1.5 flights
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route

AA
DFW-GIG 0>3/WK APR- (SVC prev ended)
DFW-GRR 2>3 FEB-
DFW-VER 0>1 FEB-
LAX-ABQ 0>3 APR-
LAX-BOI 0>2 APR-
LAX-ELP 0>2 APR-
LAX-IAH 0>3 APR-
LAX-OKC 0>1 APR-
LAX-PHX 0>4 APR-
LAX-SLC 0>3 APR-
LAX-SMF 0>4 APR-
LAX-TUS 0>3 APR-
ORD-YYZ 9>8 APR-

AC
SNA-YYZ 1>0 MAY- (no longer resumes)

B6
ANC-LGB 0>1 MAY-
LGB-OAK 3>4 MAY-

BW
JFK-GND 0>2/WK MAR- (SVC prev ended)

JM
JFK-GND 2/WK>0 FEB-

CO
CLE-SFO 2>1 MAY-
CLE-CVG 3>16/WK FEB-
EWR-ORD 10>6 JAN-FEB; 7>6 MAR-
EWR-PLS 0>1 FEB-
EWR-RTB 1/WK>0 MAR-APR (Now only Feb)
GUM-NRT 3>4 FEB-MAR
IAH-HOB 2>0 FEB (Delayed till March)

UA
ORD-LIT 3>4 FEB-
LAX-OGG 3>2 JAN-APR

DL
ATL-FLO 3>0 JAN- (Closed station)
ATL-HHH 4>0 MAR- (No longer resumes)
ATL-KIN 1/WK>0 FEB- (Appears station is closed)
ATL-LYH 2>0 JAN- (Closed station)
ATL-POP 1/WK>0 APR- (Appears closed station)
DTW-YXU 3>0 JAN- (Closed station)
MSP-DCA 7>6 APR
SLC-FAI 1>0 JUN- (FAI-MSP SVC only left)

KL
MIA-AMS 0>4/WK MAR-

NK
DFW-LAS 0>2 MAY-
FLL-CRW 0>3/WK MAR-
FLL-DFW 0>2 MAY-
FLL-IAG 0>3/WK FEB-
FLL-LBE 0>4/WK FEB-
FLL-PBG 0>4/WK JAN-
MYR-CRW 0>3/WK MAY-
MYR-DCA 0>1 MAY-
MYR-IAG 0>3/WK MAY-
MYR-LBE 0>4/WK MAY-
MYR-PBG 0>4/WK MAY-

WN
EWR-MDW 0>6 MAR-
EWR-STL 0>2 MAR-

ZK
FEB- FOR ALL
BFF-ISN 1.0>0.0
DDC-MCI 1.0>0.0
DEN-GCK 3.6>4.3
DEN-GDV 0.0>0.7
GCC-GDV 1.7>1.0
GCC-ISN 0.0>0.3
GCK-DEN 3.6>4.3
GDV-GCC 1.7>1.0
GDV-ISN 0.0>0.7
ISN-BFF 1.0>0.0
ISN-DEN 0.0>1.0
JLN-MCI 2.7>0.0
MCI-DDC 1.0>0.0
MCI-JLN 2.7>0.0

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: mtnwest1979
Posted 2010-11-03 17:15:49 and read 11594 times.

Wow, Anchorage-Long Beach on jetBlue. Nice addition. I wouldn't have thought of B6 looking at ANC service.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: RamblinMan
Posted 2010-11-03 17:21:40 and read 11534 times.

Seems CO is severely cutting EWR-ORD and UA isn't picking up the slack. Or will these flights be replaced by UA metal eventually?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: STT757
Posted 2010-11-03 17:50:38 and read 11296 times.

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 2):
Seems CO is severely cutting EWR-ORD and UA isn't picking up the slack. Or will these flights be replaced by UA metal eventually?

CO.com for March shows 15 daily (CO/UA combined) EWR-ORD

2 ERJ-170, 7 A319, 3 737-500, 3 737-800,

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: FL787
Posted 2010-11-03 17:51:46 and read 11294 times.

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 2):
Seems CO is severely cutting EWR-ORD and UA isn't picking up the slack. Or will these flights be replaced by UA metal eventually?

UA/CO had/have to give up 18 slot pairs to WN. Flights had to be cut somewhere and cutting where you overlap makes the most sense.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: diverdave
Posted 2010-11-03 17:57:23 and read 11249 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SLC-FAI 1>0 JUN- (FAI-MSP SVC only left)

Interesting, I thought this route was profitable. I guess FAI-MSP will stay at 2x daily in season.

Thanks for posting!

David

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2010-11-03 18:14:28 and read 11132 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LAX-ELP 0>2 APR-

Isn't this actually an American Eagle flight?

Interesting that AA would choose to duke it out with WN in a market that they have been out of since the early 1980's  

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: SlcDeltaRUmd11
Posted 2010-11-03 18:19:28 and read 11098 times.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 5):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SLC-FAI 1>0 JUN- (FAI-MSP SVC only left)

Interesting, I thought this route was profitable.

I think that a major factor was Frontier being on DEN-FAI they fought for the same connecting passengers. Fares were really low at parts of the summer by both carriers on the routes. Its so far away who knows with delta it might come back

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: C010T3
Posted 2010-11-03 18:35:43 and read 10992 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA
DFW-GIG 0>3/WK APR- (SVC prev ended)

That's great news! The service is no longer seasonal even before it begins!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-03 19:48:03 and read 10649 times.

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 1):
Wow, Anchorage-Long Beach on jetBlue. Nice addition. I wouldn't have thought of B6 looking at ANC service.

I had heard they were snooping around ANC, but I figured it was from SEA.

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 2):
Seems CO is severely cutting EWR-ORD and UA isn't picking up the slack. Or will these flights be replaced by UA metal eventually?

I would expect a lot of what goes on to be syncing issues. We saw that with DL/NW where one schedule was filed one week and the other carrier filed the balancing service a week later.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 5):
Thanks for posting!

 
Quoting KELPkid (Reply 6):

Isn't this actually an American Eagle flight?

American Eagle sells tickets under the AA code. They do not sell tickets under their own two letter code. I hope that clarifies for you.

Quoting SlcDeltaRUmd11 (Reply 7):
I think that a major factor was Frontier being on DEN-FAI they fought for the same connecting passengers.

That is likely true, but it is rare to see DL run from an LCC.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: knope2001
Posted 2010-11-03 20:25:20 and read 10503 times.

Thanks as always for posting this each week!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

ZK
MCI-DDC 1.0>0.0
MCI-JLN 2.7>0.0

That marks the end of Great Lakes in Kansas City, and with STL already gone and MKE ending as soon as a replacement starts, Great Lakes continues to pull back west. Perhaps concentrating their assets in fewer places will help them run a better operation. It's been dismal at MKE -- looks like they canceled about 15% of their flights in September.

The end of ZK at MCI marks the first time in more than 50 years that western Kansas is cut off from Kansas City. (I suppose the MCI-Salina SeaPort flights are sort of an exception, though they don't even operate out of the terminal.)


Separately, I suspect that AirTran's drop of MKE-DFW eff January must not have hit the OAG files yet.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: greenair727
Posted 2010-11-03 20:56:15 and read 10385 times.

Quote:
CO
CLE-SFO 2>1 MAY-

A hub-to-hub DECREASE? And just before summer?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Kcrwflyer
Posted 2010-11-03 21:27:40 and read 10269 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
It's been dismal at MKE -- looks like they canceled about 15% of their flights in September.

Is that all? I'm sure Colgan has them beat on CRW-DCA.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: drerx7
Posted 2010-11-03 21:27:58 and read 10270 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 11):
A hub-to-hub DECREASE? And just before summer?

I don't think UA/CO is finished with the aircraft deployments - I think the 319/320 fleet has yet to be allocated. There are a lot of seemingly strange unanswered schedule changes - SFO-CLE decrease, ORD-LAS down to 3 flights a day, and all 319/320s leaving UA mainline at IAH.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-03 21:54:26 and read 10212 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
It's been dismal at MKE -- looks like they canceled about 15% of their flights in September.

Wow, that is awful. Nearly as bad as when YV flew for F9!  
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
I suspect that AirTran's drop of MKE-DFW eff January must not have hit the OAG files yet.

I didn't even know about that. I suspect major changes at FL with WN subtlety influencing decisions.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 11):
A hub-to-hub DECREASE? And just before summer?
Quoting drerx7 (Reply 13):
I don't think UA/CO is finished with the aircraft deployments

And they pulled down CLE-CVG before it started. Not a good sign for CLE.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: CBPhoto
Posted 2010-11-03 22:27:53 and read 10137 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
That marks the end of Great Lakes in Kansas City, and with STL already gone and MKE ending as soon as a replacement starts, Great Lakes continues to pull back west. Perhaps concentrating their assets in fewer places will help them run a better operation.

Yup...finally we pull out of MCI, 7 months after we were told we would! A bit sad to see MCI go, just a few years ago, MCI would have no less then 6 ZK 1900s by 7AM, and now their will be nothing! Good luck to Kansas and their EAS flights!

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
It's been dismal at MKE -- looks like they canceled about 15% of their flights in September.

haha...that does not surprise me at all. That is what happens when you fly 1900s with 40K + cycles on them and then isolate them from the entire system. Not quite sure what management was thinking on that one. I can say though, we could really use that 1900 back in the Denver system to give us some equipment slack!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: cle757
Posted 2010-11-04 06:18:46 and read 9275 times.

Quoting CBPhoto (Reply 15):
And they pulled down CLE-CVG before it started. Not a good sign for CLE.

I dont see any pull down of CLE-CVG, people just love to mess with CLE.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: quiet1
Posted 2010-11-04 06:20:21 and read 9264 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 14):
And they pulled down CLE-CVG before it started. Not a good sign for CLE.

??? The OP shows it going from 3/wk to 16/wk starting in FEB. Is it being pulled down later?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: steex
Posted 2010-11-04 06:24:12 and read 9231 times.

Quoting quiet1 (Reply 17):
??? The OP shows it going from 3/wk to 16/wk starting in FEB. Is it being pulled down later?

That's a pull down from 3 daily to 16/wk, so a net loss of 5 weekly frequencies - now shown as closer to 2 daily flights rather than 3 daily flights.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Web
Posted 2010-11-04 06:30:09 and read 9185 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
MKE ending as soon as a replacement starts

I may have missed this, but who is replacing ZK in MKE?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: cle757
Posted 2010-11-04 06:30:20 and read 9185 times.

It operates 2 per day on Tues/Wed ,1 per day on Sat, and 3 per day Mon/Thu/Fri

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: as739x
Posted 2010-11-04 07:48:00 and read 8830 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 11):

Were far out. I imagine that will change back to a second daily or possibly UA side picking up the second flight. But your right, the summer season warrants 2 daily CLE-SFO.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: CBPhoto
Posted 2010-11-04 08:31:00 and read 8644 times.

Quoting cle757 (Reply 16):
I dont see any pull down of CLE-CVG, people just love to mess with CLE

Thats odd, because I did not even mention the CLE-CVG route in my post! must have been an A-net hiccup!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: izbtmnhd
Posted 2010-11-04 08:41:35 and read 8589 times.

Considering there are 0 CLE-CVG flts. currently on UA, it's much more of an increase than a decrease.

As for the hub-to-hub stuff, EWR-ORD is pulled down as well.

Still feels like making something out of nothing.

When the real cuts come, I have a feeling you'll know it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: ChopChop767
Posted 2010-11-04 08:56:19 and read 8498 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):

I guess they've found a better allocation for the equipment, but sad to see the 'Newark 57' no longer being used on ord to ewr. I used to fly between Chicago and Newark quite often and it always seemed like united's dirtiest, oldest, most run down 757 was used on the route. It became a running joke. 'Ohh the Newark 57'. Oh well. Fifteen daily roundtrips is certainly a lot.

Thanks for the update.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2010-11-04 09:20:09 and read 8486 times.

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 23):
As for the hub-to-hub stuff, EWR-ORD is pulled down as well.

Still feels like making something out of nothing.

UA/CO's hub-to-hub need to be aligned and optimized... too many competing frequencies at overlapping times

Combined, UA/CO has 16 number of NONSTOP frequencies between the two regions :

7 CO EWR-SFO
2 UA EWR-SFO

7 UA JFK-SFO p.s.

i'd propose redistributing the 9 EWR-SFO into 6 SFO (up all up-gauged to 739/753/763) / 2 SJC / 1 OAK. Those for SJC/OAK will be two morning (for European connections) and one red-eye. SFO is hugely inconvenient for a big chunk of East Bay, even when you have BART.

but i'm not betting on the 763 since UA/CO will need EVERY widebody on their hands to go transatlantic and transpacific

If that think that's bad, wait till you see how many frequencies UA/CO has on NYC-CHI and NYC-LA.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: cle757
Posted 2010-11-04 09:30:37 and read 8418 times.

CLE-SFO operates two per day usually June-Sept and during holidays, the rest of the time its 1 per day. I expect they will operate at least two per day year round as this merger goes along.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: 28L28L
Posted 2010-11-04 09:41:09 and read 8438 times.

Has DL's SLC-FAI always been seasonal, or has it ever operated throughout the year?
Cheers.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: diverdave
Posted 2010-11-04 09:57:50 and read 8359 times.

Quoting SlcDeltaRUmd11 (Reply 7):
I think that a major factor was Frontier being on DEN-FAI they fought for the same connecting passengers. Fares were really low at parts of the summer by both carriers on the routes. Its so far away who knows with delta it might come back

Ah, thank you. I guess the critters ran off the widget.  

David

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: TOMMY767
Posted 2010-11-04 10:08:44 and read 8318 times.

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 2):
Quoting ChopChop767 (Reply 24):
I used to fly between Chicago and Newark quite often and it always seemed like united's dirtiest, oldest, most run down 757 was used on the route. It became a running joke. 'Ohh the Newark 57'. Oh well. Fifteen daily roundtrips is certainly a lot.

I wouldn't put too much thought into March yet as that will likely change anyway....

According to UA.com in Jan/Feb, EWR-ORD still gets 2x 757, EWR-DEN gets 2x 757 (usually 319) and EWR-SFO gets 2x 757 (usually 319 also.) If you look at the schedules it actually makes sense. CO picks up the bulk of the ops with 737s on EWR-SFO/DEN/ORD with frequency and UA operates their flights with larger aircraft, being the 757. Same more or less goes with IAH-ORD which is operated by CO 737s and 753s with a lone UA 757 in the mix also. IAH-IAD also goes 4x UA 757 starting next year. Makes me very curious as to what they are going to do with EWR-IAD in terms of mainline.

What I've noticed is starting in Jan/Feb, BOS-DEN goes from 4x to 3x daily operated by Airbus and 757. Surprised nobody picked up on that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: knope2001
Posted 2010-11-04 11:04:44 and read 8105 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 14):
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
I suspect that AirTran's drop of MKE-DFW eff January must not have hit the OAG files yet.

I didn't even know about that. I suspect major changes at FL with WN subtlety influencing decisions.


DFW-MKE disappeared effective 1/3/11 just the other day. Probably hasn't hit OAG yet.


We all know that DFW will have to end as soon as WN completes the takeover of FL. However I think stopping DFW-MKE is only partially related to that for a few reasons:

(a) I'd heard DFW-MKE was struggling.

(b) AirTran is keeping DFW-ATL and DFW-MCO....they are not closing DFW yet.

(c) AirTran is even restoring DFW-BWI nonstops this spring, so they are not planning to leave DFW any time soon.

(d) Techincally, the airlines have to keep operating separately and with the contingency that the acquisition could still be blocked. We all know that both WN and FL are making decisions based on the very high chance the takeover will be approved, but they have to at least give the general impression of working separately until they are approved.

I listed that final one last because it's probably the one most open to debate. By rights they cannot work together, and if (for example) Southwest or AirTran suddenly pull out of BWI-BOS before the merger is approved, that would generate some heat. Clearly not kosher. But if, say, both WN and FL just aren't quite as aggressive about beating each other up fare-wise in competitive markets as they might be, who can prove they are doing anything wrong?

So...could this be AirTran saying to themselves "no matter what Southwest does with MKE, Dallas will end sometime and so there's no point in us suffering losses to try to nurse it along"? Of course...unofficially. Or it could simply be that MKE-DFW sucks for them? Sure. If this were just about winding down DFW, I wouldn't think DFW-BWI would be back this spring/summer. But it is, and so they must think that even if DFW-BWI's days are probably numbered, it's profitable enough to bring it back again this spring. Apparently DFW-MKE is not.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: knope2001
Posted 2010-11-04 12:27:36 and read 7812 times.

Quoting Web (Reply 19):
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
MKE ending as soon as a replacement starts

I may have missed this, but who is replacing ZK in MKE?

Not yet chosen. Great Lakes has not rebid because they were only interested if it was ESC/IMT/MBL/IWD, and DL* got fhe first two. Charter Air and Sovreign also bid for those cities, and DoT denied them both and put it out to a new bid again.

This time:

Charter Air proposes EMB to MKE
Chautauqua proposes ER3 to MKE (as F9*)
Gulfstream prposes BE1 to MKE
SeaPort proposes PN1 to MSP and MKE or DTW
MuliAero proposes less-than-ten-seat equipment to ORD

The RJ bid is actually the cheapest, if I recall correctly. Charter doesn't have commuter authority to fly 30 seat EM2, Gulfstream is more expensive than Chautauqua, SeaPort and Muli both fly aircraft too small to qualify unless the communities waive the 15-seat minimum requirement. The only potential hitches I see for Chautauqua is that either or both airports may need to make adjustments to allow 30+ seat service, like meet requirements for crash/file/resuce coverage. Not sure if those issues still exist or not, and if they do how difficult they will be to overcome.

I think community comments must be in by 11/18, and the decision will follow. I would guess that it will be February or March at the earliest before ZK is replaced.
.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: flyinryan99
Posted 2010-11-04 12:54:26 and read 7707 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 31):
Charter doesn't have commuter authority to fly 30 seat EM2

I was actually told they received it over the summer. This is why they have been able to bid on more and more EAS flights. The reason why they aren't winning them, IMO, is they have no affiliation with any airlines. Maybe they could get a DL codeshare and open an operation in DTW with the EMB 120s at gates C39-C41.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2010-11-04 13:11:40 and read 7670 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-KIN 1/WK>0 FEB- (Appears station is closed)

DL has really struggled to get a foot hold in KIN.....where the VFR market is king and requires alot of on the ground attention unlike the tourism business over at MBJ.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-04 15:19:41 and read 7263 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 10):
Thanks as always for posting this each week!

 
Quoting quiet1 (Reply 17):
??? The OP shows it going from 3/wk to 16/wk starting in FEB. Is it being pulled down later?
Quoting steex (Reply 18):
That's a pull down from 3 daily to 16/wk, so a net loss of 5 weekly frequencies - now shown as closer to 2 daily flights rather than 3 daily flights.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
How to read:
Flights are daily except as noted "/wk" which means per week.
ABE-MDT 2>10/WK means a reduction from 2 daily flights to 10 flights per week which is about 1.5 flights

Steex is correct, please refer to the "how to read" section above when you are confused.

Quoting cle757 (Reply 20):
It operates 2 per day on Tues/Wed ,1 per day on Sat, and 3 per day Mon/Thu/Fri

What kind of schedule mess is that? Ridiculous.

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 23):
Considering there are 0 CLE-CVG flts. currently on UA, it's much more of an increase than a decrease.

As you know, this thread is relative to what was previously for sale so the fairest explanation is that they have become less bullish on CVG-CLE very quickly.

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 23):
When the real cuts come, I have a feeling you'll know it.

VERY true

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 29):

What I've noticed is starting in Jan/Feb, BOS-DEN goes from 4x to 3x daily operated by Airbus and 757. Surprised nobody picked up on that.

I think that was a couple of weeks ago. I thought I posted it.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 30):

So...could this be AirTran saying to themselves "no matter what Southwest does with MKE, Dallas will end sometime and so there's no point in us suffering losses to try to nurse it along"?

EXACTLY. That's what I meant about subtle. "Investments" make a lot less sense now. They are going to do things that are easier, but have less upside.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
DL has really struggled to get a foot hold in KIN.....where the VFR market is king and requires alot of on the ground attention unlike the tourism business over at MBJ.

Aren't both B6 and NK in KIN? ...but DL can't make it work? Sad...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2010-11-04 15:54:34 and read 7173 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 34):
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
DL has really struggled to get a foot hold in KIN.....where the VFR market is king and requires alot of on the ground attention unlike the tourism business over at MBJ.

Aren't both B6 and NK in KIN? ...but DL can't make it work? Sad...

How are they supposed to make it work? Something like 85% of the market is going to MIA, FLL and NYC. Heck, KIN-DAM is a larger local market than KIN-ATL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: HPAEAA
Posted 2010-11-04 16:41:07 and read 7035 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 11):

A hub-to-hub DECREASE? And just before summer?

maybe UA will pick up the slack with their metal?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: GlobalCabotage
Posted 2010-11-04 16:45:39 and read 7035 times.

ORD-EWR is going hourly on UA/CO. No need to have a flight at 7:00am and 7:05 am when you can do 6am to 9pm hourly. Not to mention ORD-LGA is hourly + a couple extra. Just part of the merger. This is logical.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: izbtmnhd
Posted 2010-11-04 17:05:55 and read 6941 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 34):

Again, there's no existing service right now. So even if they pulled back roughly "1/2" of a daily flight...it's still 2 "1/2" more daily flights than there is now. So it's more bull than bear.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-11-04 17:13:01 and read 6919 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 34):
Aren't both B6 and NK in KIN? ...but DL can't make it work? Sad...

From ATL? No way.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2010-11-04 17:16:19 and read 6920 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA
DFW-GIG 0>3/WK APR- (SVC prev ended)

It's amazing how this obscure route worked out..

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AC
SNA-YYZ 1>0 MAY- (no longer resumes)

and this popular one didn't. You just never really know until you try!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BW
JFK-GND 0>2/WK MAR- (SVC prev ended)

JM
JFK-GND 2/WK>0 FEB-

I'm sure this is just the beginning of Caribbean Airlines phasing out Air Jamaica ops.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
EWR-PLS 0>1 FEB-

They're going to start this one daily? Wow, the new UA is going to be a lot stronger in the Caribbean than I thought. Watch out, AA, DL, B6, and US!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-KIN 1/WK>0 FEB- (Appears station is closed)
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-POP 1/WK>0 APR- (Appears closed station)

No surprise to see these types of stations closing. ATL is perfect for serving the leisure Caribbean/Latin American hotspots like SJO, NAS, and MBJ, where tourists from Omaha, Albany, and everywhere inbetween can seamlessly connect to their vacation destinations. It's not great for the VFR markets like these that are heavily linked to only a few specific markets with ample n/s options (usually South Florida and New York). I wonder if DL should try KIN and POP from JFK, where they have succeeded in serving the likes of PAP and GEO that are not served from the ATL hub...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SLC-FAI 1>0 JUN- (FAI-MSP SVC only left)

DL's SLC hub must really be hurting from the resurging F9. First SBA cut, and now this. Wonder what will go next?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: GlobalCabotage
Posted 2010-11-04 17:19:14 and read 6915 times.

If the AirTran merger with Southwest happens, AirTran will have to leave DFW. Not sure why they would be adding BWI only to cut. Given how fast DL/NW and UA/CO have been approved, no need to add DFW service only to cut it a short time later. Maybe more DAL-LIT/STL-BWI flights are in order.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-04 18:24:27 and read 6817 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
How are they supposed to make it work? Something like 85% of the market is going to MIA, FLL and NYC. Heck, KIN-DAM is a larger local market than KIN-ATL.

That's true of a ton of markets DL flies. That's not unique to KIN. ATL is the largest hub in the world.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 39):

Quoting enilria (Reply 34):
Aren't both B6 and NK in KIN? ...but DL can't make it work? Sad...

From ATL? No way.


E pur si muove -Galileo

See above. They fly from other places, but DL could fly from JFK too.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
I'm sure this is just the beginning of Caribbean Airlines phasing out Air Jamaica ops.

That's why I put them next to each other. I think you are right.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
I wonder if DL should try KIN and POP from JFK, where they have succeeded in serving the likes of PAP and GEO that are not served from the ATL hub...

Exactly

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
DL's SLC hub must really be hurting from the resurging F9. First SBA cut, and now this. Wonder what will go next?

It must be, but Delta claims FL doesn't hurt them in ATL and now you have F9 hurting DL from 300 miles away? I agree it did hurt, though. F9 pricing was probably the culprit, it's just odd to see DL run from an LCC.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2010-11-04 18:27:28 and read 6809 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 42):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
I wonder if DL should try KIN and POP from JFK, where they have succeeded in serving the likes of PAP and GEO that are not served from the ATL hub...

Exactly

DL has flown both JFK-KIN and JFK-POP to no success.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-04 21:07:56 and read 6604 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
DL has flown both JFK-KIN and JFK-POP to no success.

This is not intended as an attack of B6, but why shouldn't DL be able to do as well as B6 in JFK? It's not even a low fare market. The yields are decent.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-11-04 22:11:10 and read 6530 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA
DFW-GIG 0>3/WK APR- (SVC prev ended)
DFW-GRR 2>3 FEB-
DFW-VER 0>1 FEB-
LAX-ABQ 0>3 APR-
LAX-BOI 0>2 APR-
LAX-ELP 0>2 APR-
LAX-IAH 0>3 APR-
LAX-OKC 0>1 APR-
LAX-PHX 0>4 APR-
LAX-SLC 0>3 APR-
LAX-SMF 0>4 APR-
LAX-TUS 0>3 APR-
ORD-YYZ 9>8 APR-

The AA changes struck me more than any of the others you mentioned this week. I'm glad and reassured to see AA moving agressively to counter or pre-empt their competitors:

DFW-GIG resumption competes with UA IAH-GIG

DFW-VER likewise; maybe they'll start going to more Mexico markets ex-DFW

LAX-IAH - FINALLY - UA/CO to have a competitor! (Have they flown this before?)

LAX-SLC - stirring the pot with DL

Many of the other new AA routes seem to go up against WN and US, such as LAX-SMF, PHX, ABQ, ELP, OKC ....

Good luck AA -- Los Angeles can handle multiple large "hubbing" carriers --

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 25):
UA/CO's hub-to-hub need to be aligned and optimized... too many competing frequencies at overlapping times

True. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. DL has done well so far.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
DL's SLC hub must really be hurting from the resurging F9. First SBA cut, and now this. Wonder what will go next?

And now AA coming to SLC from LAX. Only a matter of time before we have UA/CO on EWR-SLC and further upgauging of IAH-SLC.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2010-11-05 00:40:11 and read 6464 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 45):
DFW-GIG resumption competes with UA IAH-GIG

It's not a resumption. The service was not going to operate during April and May, but now will.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 45):
LAX-IAH - FINALLY - UA/CO to have a competitor! (Have they flown this before?)

LAX-SLC - stirring the pot with DL

Many of the other new AA routes seem to go up against WN and US, such as LAX-SMF, PHX, ABQ, ELP, OKC ....

Five of the routes - ELP, TUS, ABQ, IAH, OKC - are simply taking markets where AA has a very loyal flyer base and is often the second largest carrier after WN.

SMF is a critical business route for LA fliers; while PHX and SLC are critical feeder routes for its LAX hub; and BOI is one of the larger cities missing from AA's network, and I assume it just sees LAX as a good opportunity to enter it. And possibly if it does well, I can imagine ORD-BOI in the future.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Schweigend
Posted 2010-11-05 01:03:40 and read 6471 times.

This new-found AA toughness in LA may also work at ORD.

UA and AA at ORD don't want to kill each other -- they just want to bump chests, like strong men do.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: wwtraveler99
Posted 2010-11-05 05:56:02 and read 6321 times.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 41):
If the AirTran merger with Southwest happens, AirTran will have to leave DFW. Not sure why they would be adding BWI only to cut. Given how fast DL/NW and UA/CO have been approved, no need to add DFW service only to cut it a short time later. Maybe more DAL-LIT/STL-BWI flights are in order.

If the service is to start in the spring Mar/Apr then it may never happen. WN expects the deal to close by Mar 1, 2011.

So they announce service that will probably never happen.


WW

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2010-11-05 07:06:09 and read 6236 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 42):
See above. They fly from other places, but DL could fly from JFK too.

You'd think they could at least undercut AA at JFK, but their inability to make most ethnic Caribbean ex JFK work is only matched by the nonexistence of a market from ATL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2010-11-05 07:38:00 and read 6187 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 42):
That's true of a ton of markets DL flies. That's not unique to KIN. ATL is the largest hub in the world.

But one would think that DL would be able to at least draw scraps of passengers from DTW, MSP, JAX, MCI, FRA, SEA etc every day to make at least a CR9 to KIN work.

I think part of the problem lies with how they position themselves to the locals in KIN.

DL has had the same problem in BZE...it does fine with the tourists, but the VFR who will make the flight work during the low season are courted daily by AA and CO. DL never bothered to actively pursue them. Now, DL has just begun a program to address the problem here and is seeing results....perhaps they should pull a page out of the BZE playbook for KIN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: ScottB
Posted 2010-11-05 09:01:33 and read 6113 times.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 41):
If the AirTran merger with Southwest happens, AirTran will have to leave DFW. Not sure why they would be adding BWI only to cut.

Because there's really little cost to keeping it in the schedule for now. The number of rebookings that might be required even two months out for a single daily non-stop round-trip will be small enough to be negligible -- they can probably just put passengers on one-stops to DAL or issue refunds. One could ask the same question about keeping ATL-DFW in the system; I wonder if they'd have some sort of contingency plan to have the flights stop in BHM/JAN/MSY/LIT on the way to DAL the day after the merger closes.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2010-11-05 10:02:18 and read 6063 times.

Quoting CBPhoto (Reply 15):
haha...that does not surprise me at all. That is what happens when you fly 1900s with 40K + cycles on them and then isolate them from the entire system.

I always wondered about that. When MCI, STL and MKE were at their peak, it seemed like it might have been economical to do some maintenance somewhere for all 3 of those bases - perhaps BRL (existing station) or MLI (new station, but bigger city with some demand to all three hublets). They never tried that, though.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 30):
I listed that final one last because it's probably the one most open to debate. By rights they cannot work together, and if (for example) Southwest or AirTran suddenly pull out of BWI-BOS before the merger is approved, that would generate some heat. Clearly not kosher. But if, say, both WN and FL just aren't quite as aggressive about beating each other up fare-wise in competitive markets as they might be, who can prove they are doing anything wrong?

There's lots of wink and nod stuff that might go on. If one carrier or the other wants to start BNA-ATL, for instance, they can pretty easily sign a sweetheart contract for ground handling at the station they don't serve. That's probably not technically kosher, but I doubt anyone is going to stop them.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-11-05 10:26:56 and read 6003 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 50):
DL has had the same problem in BZE...it does fine with the tourists, but the VFR who will make the flight work during the low season are courted daily by AA and CO. DL never bothered to actively pursue them

What exactly did AA and CO do, to court the locals in BZE, that DL was not doing?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: SESGDL
Posted 2010-11-05 12:02:19 and read 5889 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 50):
But one would think that DL would be able to at least draw scraps of passengers from DTW, MSP, JAX, MCI, FRA, SEA etc every day to make at least a CR9 to KIN work.

DL was able to fill flights to KIN just fine, it was yields that were likely the problem. DL could always undercut AA on MIA-KIN and have some passengers fly, for example, MIA-ATL-KIN or MCO-ATL-KIN, or any other city pair, but getting a sizable number of passengers to fly via ATL to KIN on a high fare was a problem due to the small local market.

Jeremy

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2010-11-05 14:08:42 and read 5777 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 53):
What exactly did AA and CO do, to court the locals in BZE, that DL was not doing?

CTO/GSAs, advertising, offering buy 20 get one free tickets to business, going after gov't travel contracts, etc etc

This is being changed as we speak.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-05 19:11:47 and read 5590 times.

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 45):
The AA changes struck me more than any of the others you mentioned this week. I'm glad and reassured to see AA moving agressively to counter or pre-empt their competitors:

What's amazing to me is that these planes were moved directly from SJU. In SJU they dominated the market and now they are going into WW3 in LAX with WN/DL/UA/etc. I'm not sure that is a profit positive switch, but I guess a bird in the hand is not worth two in the bush at AA.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 50):
But one would think that DL would be able to at least draw scraps of passengers from DTW, MSP, JAX, MCI, FRA, SEA etc every day to make at least a CR9 to KIN work.
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 50):

DL has had the same problem in BZE...it does fine with the tourists, but the VFR who will make the flight work during the low season are courted daily by AA and CO.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 49):

You'd think they could at least undercut AA at JFK, but their inability to make most ethnic Caribbean ex JFK work is only matched by the nonexistence of a market from ATL.

Nail on the head. DL sucks with ethnic. That's an amazing failure for an airline as big as Delta and as big as they are in NYC and Florida and hope to be in L.A. For B6 and NK to do ethnic better than they can should scare them.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 52):
There's lots of wink and nod stuff that might go on.

I agree completely. I don't think they ask WN's permission, but I think FL asks themselves if WN would like a particular decision.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 54):

DL was able to fill flights to KIN just fine, it was yields that were likely the problem.

I guess, but ethnic markets aren't usually low yield because they often book close. The problem is that DL sucks in the ethnic market and only gets bargain basement tourists...and if you've seen KIN it's amazing they even get that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-11-05 19:19:31 and read 5577 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 52):
There's lots of wink and nod stuff that might go on. If one carrier or the other wants to start BNA-ATL, for instance, they can pretty easily sign a sweetheart contract for ground handling at the station they don't serve

So what do they do about the Skywest flying? They have to give 120 days notice - or pay them out, I guess.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-11-06 05:26:28 and read 5364 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
Nail on the head. DL sucks with ethnic. That's an amazing failure for an airline as big as Delta and as big as they are in NYC and Florida and hope to be in L.A. For B6 and NK to do ethnic better than they can should scare them.
Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
I guess, but ethnic markets aren't usually low yield because they often book close. The problem is that DL sucks in the ethnic market and only gets bargain basement tourists...and if you've seen KIN it's amazing they even get that.




What in your opinion is Delta failing to due to gain the ethnic market In NYC Florida and LAX. Are you referring only to flights to the Caribbean?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: realsim
Posted 2010-11-06 07:52:05 and read 5283 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
What's amazing to me is that these planes were moved directly from SJU. In SJU they dominated the market and now they are going into WW3 in LAX with WN/DL/UA/etc. I'm not sure that is a profit positive switch, but I guess a bird in the hand is not worth two in the bush at AA.

Both things are unrelated because all the new flights from LAX are in ERJ or CRJ equipment, while in SJU only ATR are flown, so the 2/3 aircraft that have been moved from SJU will fly either from DFW or MIA, but not from LAX.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: ScottB
Posted 2010-11-06 08:57:43 and read 5240 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 59):
Both things are unrelated because all the new flights from LAX are in ERJ or CRJ equipment, while in SJU only ATR are flown, so the 2/3 aircraft that have been moved from SJU will fly either from DFW or MIA, but not from LAX.

Except that the ERJ's & CR7's operating the new LAX flights didn't exactly appear from thin air; they came from other hubs like MIA and DFW. The ATR's being shifted from SJU are back-filling for ERJ's and CR7's which are being moved to LAX.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2010-11-06 09:18:56 and read 5229 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 60):
Quoting realsim (Reply 59):
Both things are unrelated because all the new flights from LAX are in ERJ or CRJ equipment, while in SJU only ATR are flown, so the 2/3 aircraft that have been moved from SJU will fly either from DFW or MIA, but not from LAX.

Except that the ERJ's & CR7's operating the new LAX flights didn't exactly appear from thin air; they came from other hubs like MIA and DFW. The ATR's being shifted from SJU are back-filling for ERJ's and CR7's which are being moved to LAX.

No, actually the CR7s did/will appear from thin air, since there are 13 CRJ-700s that are being delivered between now and June, in addition to the nine that have been delivered since July.

There is no ERJ base at Miami; but one will be opening next year as Miami ERJ flying is continues to grow significantly. Nothing is being cut at MIA.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2010-11-06 10:40:12 and read 5155 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
So what do they do about the Skywest flying? They have to give 120 days notice - or pay them out, I guess.

I think it's working for them, so they'll keep it around as long as they can (WN probably doesn't mind it either, as long as it's making money for FL).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: mariner
Posted 2010-11-06 10:56:57 and read 5130 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 62):
I think it's working for them, so they'll keep it around as long as they can (WN probably doesn't mind it either, as long as it's making money for FL).

I'm simply interested in the process.

Skywest can't fly for Southwest (pilots contract) and Airtran has to give them 120 days notice to end the deal.

Even if Southwest were to continue the routes with what would be their own metal (717's?) the Skywest contract would still be an issue, so does Southwest get dispensation from the pilots to allow the notice to be worked out?

Or, at some point, does Airtran have to take a punt that the deal will go through and issue the notice? Or do they wait until the deal is approved and Southwest simply pays out the contract?

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: FL787
Posted 2010-11-06 12:37:10 and read 5073 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 63):
I'm simply interested in the process.

I don't think it's going to be much of a problem. I would guess that the OO flying will go away at the end of the summer schedule assuming that the deal goes through in the spring. Fall will also probably be when WN starts to move LGA and DCA slots around which will kill the MKE hub. I don't think WN pilots would object to letting OO finish out the summer.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2010-11-06 14:17:57 and read 5006 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 63):
Or, at some point, does Airtran have to take a punt that the deal will go through and issue the notice? Or do they wait until the deal is approved and Southwest simply pays out the contract?

They'll have more than 120 days between approval (by all relevant parties) and a single certificate, so I expect that they'll give OO notice upon approval and work out a mutually agreeable transition.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-07 09:57:29 and read 4747 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
So what do they do about the Skywest flying? They have to give 120 days notice - or pay them out, I guess.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 62):
I think it's working for them, so they'll keep it around as long as they can

I think they will give OO notice the day they legally control FL.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 58):
What in your opinion is Delta failing to due to gain the ethnic market In NYC Florida and LAX. Are you referring only to flights to the Caribbean?

The issue is that you don't sell tickets outside the USA the same way you sell tickets here. Europe is very similar to the USA and Asia is moving toward the U.S. model to some extent, but the Latin markets remains largely a cash market where travel agents are still powerful and ticket offices are still needed. Delta is reluctant to break with the USA model to accommodate those things. Without ticket offices, sales reps, ability to accept cash sales, and maybe even paying commissions they will suck in MX/DR/Jamaica/Brazil/etc. Even Puerto Rico is like that. It's shocking that JetBlue has been willing to try such old school tactics to make those markets work, but they have. NK has their own unique formula, but DL has no plan at all.

Quoting realsim (Reply 59):

Both things are unrelated because all the new flights from LAX are in ERJ or CRJ equipment, while in SJU only ATR are flown, so the 2/3 aircraft that have been moved from SJU will fly either from DFW or MIA, but not from LAX.
Quoting ScottB (Reply 60):
Except that the ERJ's & CR7's operating the new LAX flights didn't exactly appear from thin air; they came from other hubs like MIA and DFW. The ATR's being shifted from SJU are back-filling for ERJ's and CR7's which are being moved to LAX.

The bottom line is that the balloon shrank in one place and expanded in another at virtually the exact same time. I don't understand why the tail numbers have to be exactly the same for people to understand that the strategy shifted. The planners don't even set the aircraft type. There is a fleet allocation model AA uses (from Sabre) that sets the aircraft types across the network based upon historical and forecast demand. When you literally see a same type aircraft move, its just laziness on the part of the schedulers or related to operational constraints (for example, a certain fleet might be based in one hub so they have to swap routes with those constraints). This was a major decision with a hub opening and another expanding. They clearly ran the FAM model for something that huge. They run it monthly anyway.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2010-11-07 11:00:39 and read 4686 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
I think they will give OO notice the day they legally control FL.

I think we are saying the same thing in slightly different ways.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2010-11-08 05:12:51 and read 4455 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 60):
Except that the ERJ's & CR7's operating the new LAX flights didn't exactly appear from thin air; they came from other hubs like MIA and DFW. The ATR's being shifted from SJU are back-filling for ERJ's and CR7's which are being moved to LAX.

Most of it came from ORD, not MIA or DFW.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2010-11-08 06:03:30 and read 4419 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 66):
The issue is that you don't sell tickets outside the USA the same way you sell tickets here. Europe is very similar to the USA and Asia is moving toward the U.S. model to some extent, but the Latin markets remains largely a cash market where travel agents are still powerful and ticket offices are still needed. Delta is reluctant to break with the USA model to accommodate those things. Without ticket offices, sales reps, ability to accept cash sales, and maybe even paying commissions they will suck in MX/DR/Jamaica/Brazil/etc. Even Puerto Rico is like that. It's shocking that JetBlue has been willing to try such old school tactics to make those markets work, but they have. NK has their own unique formula, but DL has no plan at all.

Thanks, good explanation. What percentage of tickets on these flights are sold in the US vs MX/DR/Jamaica/Brazil etc.?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: enilria
Posted 2010-11-08 06:40:14 and read 4361 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 67):
I think we are saying the same thing in slightly different ways.

That's fair.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 69):
Thanks, good explanation. What percentage of tickets on these flights are sold in the US vs MX/DR/Jamaica/Brazil etc.?

BTW, keep in mind that credit cards are very hard to get in those places. That's hard for us to imagine since I could cover my kitchen wall with a week's worth of credit card offers, but down there you don't get a card so easily. The whole U.S. model (and Europe...and Asia) is built on credit cards. Additionally, the commission thing is really thorny. First, the U.S. agents will whine if they pay commissions for Latin agencies. Worse, somebody like Amex (with locations all over the world) will probably ticket their U.S. sales down there for intra-U.S. flights in order to get the commission, gaming the system. So, somebody like Delta is hamstrung on commissions, but the cash sale problem is a different issue.

% of sale varies. The Mexican beaches are 95% U.S., but the interior points are more Mexican citizens than U.S. That's skewed even moreso in the last few years as its become a safety issue for U.S. visitors in industrial areas. Puerto Rico is more P.R. born than "U.S.", but because it's part of the U.S. What very often happens is a relative in the "U.S." uses their credit card to purchase the tickets for the P.R. originating passenger. Nevertheless, you can see there is a clear success dividing line between a carrier like AirTran (or Delta) that doesn't accomodate cash sale and JetBlue (or AA) who does.

Jamaica is just like Mexico. The beaches are 90% U.S. sold and KIN is more than 50% Jamaica sold. The reasons are pretty much the same as Mexico. KIN is scary. Americans don't want to go there even for business.

Brazil is an oddball. There is heavy tourism to GIG and strong business ties to GRU. GIG is probably 70% U.S. sale and GRU is probably 50-50. I don't know much about the other destinations in Brazil, but a general rule of thumb is that if you consider yourself an airline junky and you've barely heard of it, then it's probably more than 50% sold there. A place has to be pretty well known to achieve 50% or more U.S. sale.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2010-11-08 14:22:53 and read 4222 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 68):
Quoting ScottB (Reply 60):
Except that the ERJ's & CR7's operating the new LAX flights didn't exactly appear from thin air; they came from other hubs like MIA and DFW. The ATR's being shifted from SJU are back-filling for ERJ's and CR7's which are being moved to LAX.

Most of it came from ORD, not MIA or DFW.

I don't believe it is coming much from Chicago either.

A lot of it is coming from the drastic reduction in Eagle point-to-point flying, which will be down to just , IIRC, RDU/BNA-DCA, MQT-TVC/GRB and BOS-YYZ.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/5/2010:AA/CO/UA/DL/NK/WN/ZK
Username: C010T3
Posted 2010-11-08 16:57:23 and read 4093 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 40):
It's amazing how this obscure route worked out..

Considering that it was AA's first route to Brazil, it is not obscure at all. It's a shame that it is not being started on December 14th, which would be a reenactment 28 years later.


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