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Topic: Next Airline To MSY
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2011-06-05 04:07:41 and read 1998 times.

I just wanted to get your opinions on what the next airline to serve MSY will be.

I'm going to list some in order from what I consider to be most likely to least likely.



1) Allegiant

* It seems like G4 and MSY are always talking. As of yet though, who knows if they'll pull the trigger? I think this could be a good carrier for MSY, with nonstop flights to/from cities like TYS/GSP/ICT/GSO/BKG/SAV/XNA (maybe some others) offered 2/3 times weekly. I'm sure G4 could get a nice partnership going to local hotels. Tourism is still king in MSY, and this airline, taking into account most of what they sell are vacation packages, just seems like a perfect fit for the city. Chances of G4 serving MSY in the next 1-2 years: 60%

2) Spirit

* Even though WN flies MSY-FLL, I think NK could do well in the market considering the many connections available to Central/South America and the Caribbean. I also think they could jump on a market like MSY-SAP in TACA's absence and make a killing. NK has been adding new flights/markets in the U.S as of late, so who knows what will happen? Chances of NK service MSY within the next 1-2 years: 50%

3) Virgin America

* VX seemed to be pretty close to starting MSY service. They even had property buyers at the airport not too long ago. However, since UA has brought back its MSY-SFO nonstop service, and since WN has brought back MSY-LAX, I haven't heard a peep about VX serving MSY. Do I think two airlines could co-exist in the MSY-SFO market? Yes. Problem is, VX would need at least 3 or 4 flights to open a new station, so assuming they'd add one (can't see two working at this time) on MSY-SFO, I'm not sure where the other flights would go. I would say LAX obviously, but with UA/DL/WN already battling it out in that market, I'm not sure if there would be room for VX. Chances of VX serving MSY within the next 1-2 years: 40%

4) Alaska

* There's currently no MSY-SEA nonstop service. Granted with fuel prices the way they are, the notion of starting a 2,087 mile route might not be an easy sell. The pax stats between the two cities aren't huge, but possibly big enough to warrant nonstop service when you take into account market stimulation and connecting options available via SEA. I'd love the the Eskimo in the Big Easy...just not sure it'll happen anytime soon. Chances of AS serving MSY in the next 1-2 years: 30%

That's pretty much it on the domestic front. As far as INTL goes, realistically, TA is the airport's best hope. I'm not really sure what's going on there, but I hope the airport is busting it's butt doing whatever it can to get them back. TA is an airline that served MSY consistently since at least the 1940's (maybe earlier) and at one times had its corporate headquarters based in the city.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: usdcaguy
Posted 2011-06-05 05:58:49 and read 1881 times.

The problem with anyone new coming into MSY is that other carriers already serve the airport quite well, and they have all made cutbacks in recent years (apart from SFO-MSY on UA and LAX-MSY on DL, among other small additions). Although I agree that G4 should consider service to MSY from some key secondary markets (ICT/BKG/XNA, or similar close-in markets that do not have much other carrier competition via hubs sound best), it is a shame that WN already flies MSY-LAS, which would be a great market for G4. That said, MSY-IFP may also be attractive to G4. It's not always what MSY can propose in terms of tourism but what other cities can propose to those in MSY that could make a new market work.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2011-06-05 07:37:16 and read 1770 times.

Don't expect to see TA back in MSY anytime soon....especially with them Joining *A with CO(UA). TA will probably codeshare on UA's IAH-MSY umpteen dailies.

I had a chat with a TA exec the other day....and MSY was very far down on the list of his priorities. He jsut kept going on and on about the need to keep building out of LIM.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: af773atmsp
Posted 2011-06-05 07:50:21 and read 1752 times.

I would like to see SY start a few weekly seasonal flights between MSP and MSY. I think SY could make good business to MSY.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2011-06-05 08:05:37 and read 1712 times.

Quoting MSYtristar (Thread starter):
2) Spirit

* Even though WN flies MSY-FLL, I think NK could do well in the market considering the many connections available to Central/South America and the Caribbean. I also think they could jump on a market like MSY-SAP in TACA's absence and make a killing. NK has been adding new flights/markets in the U.S as of late, so who knows what will happen? Chances of NK service MSY within the next 1-2 years: 50%

I think Spirit is the best chance among those bunch. If New Orleans generates all the latin america traffic this board implies it does, a short hop to FLL would make a lot of sense. Although I'm not sure what would be next for NK, they just added Atlanta and Dallas, of all places.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2011-06-05 08:20:05 and read 1679 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 2):
I had a chat with a TA exec the other day....and MSY was very far down on the list of his priorities

Wow.

Disappointing, but not surprising.

Quoting af773atmsp (Reply 3):
I would like to see SY start a few weekly seasonal flights between MSP and MSY. I think SY could make good business to MSY.

Seasonally I think it could work...maybe two or three weekly flights from say November - May.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 4):
Although I'm not sure what would be next for NK, they just added Atlanta and Dallas, of all places.

Yeah, what they'll do next is anyone's guess. They've been adding some "interesting" routes lately so who knows.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2011-06-05 10:09:12 and read 1550 times.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 5):
Wow.

Disappointing, but not surprising.

I didn't say, they weren't thinking about it.....just that they feel there is more money to be made in LatAm with their fleet than at MSY right now.

Remember CM is expanding aggressive and there is a real horse race to be first into a number of other markets.

Don't forget MSY service would have to be from SAP tp make sense and Honduras isn't exactly high priority for TA right now.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: phatfarmlines
Posted 2011-06-05 10:19:44 and read 1533 times.

Quoting MSYtristar (Thread starter):

1) Allegiant

* It seems like G4 and MSY are always talking. As of yet though, who knows if they'll pull the trigger? I think this could be a good carrier for MSY, with nonstop flights to/from cities like TYS/GSP/ICT/GSO/BKG/SAV/XNA (maybe some others) offered 2/3 times weekly. I'm sure G4 could get a nice partnership going to local hotels. Tourism is still king in MSY, and this airline, taking into account most of what they sell are vacation packages, just seems like a perfect fit for the city. Chances of G4 serving MSY in the next 1-2 years: 60%

2) Spirit

* Even though WN flies MSY-FLL, I think NK could do well in the market considering the many connections available to Central/South America and the Caribbean. I also think they could jump on a market like MSY-SAP in TACA's absence and make a killing. NK has been adding new flights/markets in the U.S as of late, so who knows what will happen? Chances of NK service MSY within the next 1-2 years: 50%

I think MSY fits the profile of a city G4 would want to fly to (cheap cheap leisure & the ability to sell vacation packages). NK would fly it on the basis it could connect to LatAm/Carib ops as already mentioned by the previous posters, otherwise going after the local FLL-MSY would be overkill.

Quoting MSYtristar (Thread starter):
3) Virgin America

* VX seemed to be pretty close to starting MSY service. They even had property buyers at the airport not too long ago. However, since UA has brought back its MSY-SFO nonstop service, and since WN has brought back MSY-LAX, I haven't heard a peep about VX serving MSY. Do I think two airlines could co-exist in the MSY-SFO market? Yes. Problem is, VX would need at least 3 or 4 flights to open a new station, so assuming they'd add one (can't see two working at this time) on MSY-SFO, I'm not sure where the other flights would go. I would say LAX obviously, but with UA/DL/WN already battling it out in that market, I'm not sure if there would be room for VX. Chances of VX serving MSY within the next 1-2 years: 40%

4) Alaska

* There's currently no MSY-SEA nonstop service. Granted with fuel prices the way they are, the notion of starting a 2,087 mile route might not be an easy sell. The pax stats between the two cities aren't huge, but possibly big enough to warrant nonstop service when you take into account market stimulation and connecting options available via SEA. I'd love the the Eskimo in the Big Easy...just not sure it'll happen anytime soon. Chances of AS serving MSY in the next 1-2 years: 30%

VX is still a fairly new carrier, and has better opportunities in other cities. I don't think the yields to MSY would be attractive at the moment. While AS as of late been releasing great operating margins in light of the fuel situation, again, the yields would not be impressive especially taking into account the longer-haul properties of flying n/s to SEA. MSY would need to see the demand along the lines of MIA/MCO in order to make this work.

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: N587NK
Posted 2011-06-05 14:01:17 and read 1379 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 4):
Although I'm not sure what would be next for NK, they just added Atlanta and Dallas, of all places.


ATL is not a new market. Its been open since at least 2006, maybe before. Not sure of the exact start date

Topic: RE: Next Airline To MSY
Username: 345fan
Posted 2011-06-05 15:31:35 and read 1305 times.

Aeromexico used to serve MSY not long ago.


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