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Topic: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: United727
Posted 2011-12-06 13:26:07 and read 13802 times.

Exactly what is the current status of the A350 and its sub-variants? Is there any speculation that A will be plagued by the similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years? If so, what are the current debilitating issues? Will the economy, in the fragile condition its in currently, make delays of this program even more challenging to UA and the OAL's waiting for these units to upgrade their fleets in the upcoming years?

[Edited 2011-12-06 13:35:30]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 13:30:16 and read 13783 times.

There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

No information is available to indicate a futher delay.

The plane enters the FAL soon.

There's no point in speculating without any facts.

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: United727
Posted 2011-12-06 13:32:51 and read 13760 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

IIRC, Boeing had a few "Simple" delays too.  

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 13:40:18 and read 13668 times.

And, over time, we gained a lot more information about that, which made speculation possible.

We simply don't have any now. None exists.

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: YTZ
Posted 2011-12-06 14:00:20 and read 13540 times.

I don't think there's enough out to quantify the delays.

But as for UA taking delivery, who knows? Sometimes, delays are a blessing in disguise. Would airlines in such poor shape over the last few years really be able to take delivery of all those aircraft? UA might well be happy with a short delay (even if they complain about it publicly...).

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2011-12-06 14:03:40 and read 13538 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

Although I don't rule out any further slippages, I'm confident it won't lead to the disastrous 3,5 years of the 787. Contrary to the 787, the A350 isn't rushed into a fake roll-out, of just an empty shell with temporary fasteners purchased in a hardware store around the corner. Airbus will make sure it can manufacture a mature product from the first frames onwards. It's sad that the generous development time they took still isn't enough, but the end result will be a much smoother production ramp-up than the 787 and A380.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-06 14:12:45 and read 13472 times.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):

Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

While that is technically correct, the number of aircraft that were due for delivery in 2013 was only 6 all for QR. That is less than a months production at the normal production rate.

Airbus did not have ambitious production ramp up plans for the A350.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 14:13:11 and read 13466 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 4):
Sometimes, delays are a blessing in disguise. Would airlines in such poor shape over the last few years really be able to take delivery of all those aircraft?

United is going to have made one billion dollars in profit this year. They the most profitable US airline and one of the most profitable in the world.

There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements.

So there's that.

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2011-12-06 14:48:13 and read 13279 times.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
the disastrous 3,5 years

technically, it was 3.25 years. Not like it matters.

Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
While that is technically correct, the number of aircraft that were due for delivery in 2013 was only 6 all for QR. That is less than a months production at the normal production rate.

Why does that matter? We don't know if the same would happen in 2014, with only 6 deliveries. Looks like 6 is an ambitious number for the 787 program this year...

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ABpositive
Posted 2011-12-06 14:53:58 and read 13257 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There's no point in speculating without any facts.

We might as well close the a.net forum then...

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 14:55:30 and read 13242 times.

Quoting ABpositive (Reply 9):
We might as well close the a.net forum then...

We could instead just moderate those posts more accurately.

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: n1786b
Posted 2011-12-06 14:56:59 and read 13226 times.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

Well, not counting the non-xwb versions of the A350, let's see what they had to say when they launched it.

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/new...-body-family-for-the-21st-century/

Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: United727
Posted 2011-12-06 14:58:04 and read 13220 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 3):
We simply don't have any now. None exists.

So one wonders... Is A is keeping information about the A350 from the public for a reason????

Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
Airbus did not have ambitious production ramp up plans for the A350.

That's past tense...is this still the case?

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements.

I get slight the impression you are ever so slightly "sensitive" about UA discussions and its ops.    In YZK's defense, he never said that UA won't take the planes, IIRC he merely made a remark questioning if they would take all that they ordered.

As for UA, nothing to be sensitive about...I'm a pre-9/11 airline brat from the "real" UA (back in the day). UA is nothing but a shell of its namesake from the glory days of long ago.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-06 19:22:14 and read 12887 times.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):

Why does that matter?

Because the number of deliveries planned in the first years was very low, they have a very good chance of recovering from the delay very quickly.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):
We don't know if the same would happen in 2014, with only 6 deliveries.

And they could also deliver all those aircraft plus the planned aircraft for 2014 in 2014.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):
Looks like 6 is an ambitious number for the 787 program this year...

If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):

That's past tense...is this still the case?

Yes.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-06 19:38:43 and read 12848 times.

While not as ambitious as Boeing (who in 2008 intended to deliver 109 planes within 18 months), Airbus' original production plan was 18 in 2013, 51 in 2014 and 83 in 2015.

So if Airbus is now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014, that would be a significant cut.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-06 19:54:35 and read 12815 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
While not as ambitious as Boeing (who in 2008 intended to deliver 109 planes within 18 months),

If you want to discuss the 787 production issues, take it to the 787 production thread.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
Airbus' original production plan was 18 in 2013, 51 in 2014 and 83 in 2015.

Where did you pull those numbers from ? The Ascend data base does not show anything like that number for the A350.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
So if Airbus is now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014, that would be a significant cut.

Where did you pull the "now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014" number from ?

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 20:06:05 and read 12775 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

Meow sir. Calm down. Comparing the two programs makes some sense.  

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-06 20:10:39 and read 12767 times.

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):
I get slight the impression you are ever so slightly "sensitive" about UA discussions and its ops.

I'm just sensitive in general today. I'll get over it.

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion and how now that Smisek is in charge clearly UA will be going all Boeing IMMEDIATELY and etc etc etc.

But hey, clearly I just post in quantity and I do not know anything about airlines or aviation.

NS

[Edited 2011-12-06 20:11:31]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: planewasted
Posted 2011-12-06 20:25:31 and read 12713 times.

I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program. Boeing must have know quite early they had problems but did not announce them. Because of that, I trust Airbus current estimates a lot more.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: justloveplanes
Posted 2011-12-06 20:50:09 and read 12643 times.

Quoting n1786b (Reply 11):
Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.

Were any orders placed with that assumption? If not, then the delivery date for the first order should be used.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

My gut feel is with the amount of new technology, there will be more delays. Unless A has already matured it's grip on essentially a new concept aircraft, and hence has a deterministic understanding of all the issues it has left (no unknown unknowns and bounded known unknowns), there will be more surprises. 6 months at least, perhaps a bit more. Doubt they'll get to a total of 3 years behind but around 2 years give or take a few months seems a reasonable guess.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: qfa787380
Posted 2011-12-06 20:50:59 and read 12645 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

No information is available to indicate a futher delay.

The plane enters the FAL soon.

There's no point in speculating without any facts.



Wrong again,

Bernstein, who proved to be very accurate re 787 delays are predicting another 12 month delay for the 350 and don't expect EIS until 2015. Many analysts are of the same opinion but you obviously know better.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-06 21:05:18 and read 12599 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 17):

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion

I am the same, and I do not like it how every A350 related thread has been driven to be a comparison to the 777 and 787 by the same people. Makes one think if there is an orchestrated effort to muddy the A350 program.

Quoting planewasted (Reply 18):
I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program.

I have been at the briefing Airbus gave to a customer recently, and I would have to agree with the observation. They have told us exactly where the problems were, and how they have been identified and fixed. They have stressed that they are not going forward unless issues that have been encountered are dealt with as they arise, they will not carry forward unfinished work to the next step. This means that unfinished work is not being masked with production and delivery of unfinished sections.

This along with using the same suppliers as of previous projects, and using essentially a very similar production method as similar projects give customers a lot more confidence in the project timeline. People know how an A330 is being built today, so they have a very good idea how the A350 will be built, and the have confidence in the same suppliers.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: AngMoh
Posted 2011-12-06 21:29:38 and read 12535 times.

Quoting planewasted (Reply 18):
I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program. Boeing must have know quite early they had problems but did not announce them. Because of that, I trust Airbus current estimates a lot more.

I also have the impression that Airbus has a lot more emphasis on 'industrialisation" (i.e. how to get them build) than Boeing. That actually drove the choice for panels over barrels. I would not be surprised with more delays till EIS, but I don't expect them to be anywhere near the 787 delays and I think the manufacturing ramp up will be much much faster.

I expect the flight test to have less issues (and therefore to be almost delay-free) thanks to the iron bird testing (a huge lesson learned from the A380).

And the Trent XWB looks very good (thanks to the lessons learned from Trent 900 and Tent 1000)....

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Acheron
Posted 2011-12-06 23:09:02 and read 12380 times.

There will certainly be delays for the A350. That much is a given.

Will they be of the same extent than the 787?. Doubt it. Boeing tried to many new things(for them) at the same time which ended up biting them in the ass, while Airbus approach is relatively more conservative and few of the A350 technologies are already flying in the A380.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2011-12-07 01:24:05 and read 12186 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 19):
Quoting n1786b (Reply 11):Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.
Were any orders placed with that assumption? If not, then the delivery date for the first order should be used.

Yes, SQ was launch customer of the first A350XWB version. But that was still with an Al-Li fuselage design. After some criticism from the airlines and leasing companies (Notably ILFC's mr. Udvar-Hazy), Airbus decided to redesign it and use CFRP panels, which resulted in a planned EIS of 2013. But I don't count that as a 'delay' in the same sense as that other airplane which cannot be mentioned in this thread   

Quoting Acheron (Reply 24):
There will certainly be delays for the A350. That much is a given.

Will they be of the same extent than the 787?.

Ssshhht! Don't mention that plane   

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 01:58:29 and read 12482 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from AB is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring. But that's just me. If I were a betting man, I would put money on further delays, due to this information black out. If the delays will approach 787 delays? Time will tell....

[Edited 2011-12-07 02:01:31]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-07 02:39:34 and read 12377 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays.

No, the OP said, "similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years". Read the actual OP, not just the title. Answer the actual question asked, not just what you think is being asked.

The answer is no. They are using their proven suppliers, and using the same production method, they are not facing the same issues. They are not using unproven suppliers, unproven production techniques, or an unproven supply chain.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from Airbus is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring.

Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

I have lost count of the number of A350 threads, the amount of information out there is staggering, to claim there is a lack of information is baseless. What you what to say is that some magic bullet of information is being deliberately withheld which would prove that Airbus is totally incompetent, and Boeing is the only manufacturer any airline should ever but aircraft from.

I have a lot more confidence in the A350 than I have in any of the other recent aircraft brought into service, you have customers pushing them to get on with building more aircraft, and the you Airbus saying, no we want o get it right.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
I would put money on further delays, due to this information black out.

There may well be further delays, however that will be due to then wanting to get things right.

And that is exactly what the customers want in the end.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Arniepie
Posted 2011-12-07 02:45:18 and read 12576 times.

Just out of curiosity but are the A350 assembly parts going to be delivered in the old style airbus way,
essentially mainly by Beluga or is it going to be more like today's A380 with the barges and such or maybe
an amalgamation of the 2 ways?

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 03:20:58 and read 12431 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
No, the OP said, "similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years". Read the actual OP, not just the title. Answer the actual question asked, not just what you think is being asked.

I will read the title, just like everyone else, sorry old chap. Or are you suggesting I and everyone else ignore it?

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
There may well be further delays,...

So we agree - why the anger then?

[Edited 2011-12-07 03:27:25]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 03:37:08 and read 12363 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
I have a lot more confidence in the A350 than I have in any of the other recent aircraft brought into service

We'll see how rightly or wrongly your personal confidence has been placed.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: rjm777ual
Posted 2011-12-07 04:12:31 and read 12142 times.

As of right now, Airbus has constructed the first A350 XWB front fuselage sector. I'm guessing early 2017 is when the first will be delivered. You also have to count in the engine factor too.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ebj1248650
Posted 2011-12-07 04:13:06 and read 12092 times.

Modern technology being what it is, I'd think we'd expect delays as new techniques, materials and such are introduced to airplane manufacturing. Both the 787 and the A350 represent huge advancements in technology, as surely as the F-35 series represents them. Is it any wonder that technical problems arise and delays take place.

These kinds of things happened in years past but the difference between then and the present is that there was no such thing as instant communications and it follows it was a lot easier to conceal problems for a while, whereas today if you have a problem, the world knows about it before the day is done.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Cerecl
Posted 2011-12-07 04:17:14 and read 12068 times.

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 32):
I'm guessing early 2017 is when the first will be delivered. You also have to count in the engine factor too.

  So you are predicting another ~3 years' of delay?

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 32):
You also have to count in the engine factor too.

TrentXWB was reportedly going well.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: rjm777ual
Posted 2011-12-07 04:21:48 and read 11998 times.

The original time frame was 2015-2016.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2011-12-07 04:33:50 and read 11854 times.

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 33):
The original time frame was 2015-2016.

For the A350-1000. That has indeed been pushed back to 2017.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: United727
Posted 2011-12-07 04:38:06 and read 11822 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 16):
Meow sir. Calm down. Comparing the two programs makes some sense.  

NS

LOL, Neil, there have been plenty of times I've wanted to use this same sentiment for your posts with specific regard to UA.  
Quoting gigneil (Reply 17):
I'm just sensitive in general today. I'll get over it.

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion and how now that Smisek is in charge clearly UA will be going all Boeing IMMEDIATELY and etc etc etc.

But hey, clearly I just post in quantity and I do not know anything about airlines or aviation.NS

I've come to terms that you must be Senior Management with UA and "be in the know"???   

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I certainly did ask for a comparison in a most "benign" manner...No need to argue children, lol  
Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 33):

The original time frame was 2015-2016.

  

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-07 05:01:44 and read 11573 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Where did you pull the "now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014" number from?

An erroneous extrapolation on my part of your comment in Reply 6 that Airbus planned to deliver six planes, all to QR, in Q4 2013 to an equally erroneous new delivery date of Q4 2014 when the new delivery date is 1H 2014. I therefore formally withdraw the comment and apologize for my error.

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Where did you pull those numbers from? The Ascend data base does not show anything like that number for the A350.

The Los Echos article from August 2010 where they projected that Airbus would not make their original delivery targets for those three years. I assume they pulled those numbers from Airbus, since that would be the logical source of said delivery targets.

That being said, I found a second source at FlightGlobal from 2008 attributed to Francois Caudron, vice-president A350 customer and business development:

Quote:
The sections will arrive by Beluga in Toulouse, where they will be united to create a complete aircraft using a new, streamlined final assembly concept. Airbus intends to build 18 aircraft in 2013, which will be the first year of full production and then ramp up through 83 units after two years and stabilise at 143 units annually from 2017.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2011-12-07 06:00:18 and read 10844 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.


No, it is not. See below:

Quoting zeke (Reply 21):
I have been at the briefing Airbus gave to a customer recently, and I would have to agree with the observation.


Now what link should he post here to verify that? He was there, that is what counts. That he can publicly not share proprietary information is clear as well. I will take his word for it more than almost any other poster here that these meetings are held. And by chance I have talked a couple of times to some engineers who are directly involved into the A350- program. Their information is consistent with what Zeke has been posting here. That is good enough for me.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Aeolus
Posted 2011-12-07 06:06:49 and read 10790 times.

Will we still see the A358? I've never known what's become of it except that Airbus is pushing everyone to either change to A359 or A350-1000s...

-Aeolus

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-07 06:11:39 and read 10790 times.

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 27):
amalgamation of the 2 ways?

Road, rail, sea, river, and air.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):

I will read the title, just like everyone else, sorry old chap. Or are you suggesting I and everyone else ignore it?

How could you quote my reply 13 if you only read the title ?

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.

I was at the Airbus briefing, this is what happens when people actually WORK in the industry.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
So we agree

Not at all. I have seen this cycle before on the A380 threads, a pack of non industry a.net members ready to bash whatever manufacturers is the flavour of the month. I am not ruling out further delays, however I am not assuming it is a foregone conclusion either.

I am a lot closer to hearing of any issues with the project than most people here, and unlike other previous project a number of airlines have representatives actually in TLS with Airbus full time. This project is far more transparent to the industry compared to anything previous.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):

The Los Echos article from August 2010 where they projected that Airbus would not make their original delivery targets for those three years. I assume they pulled those numbers from Airbus, since that would be the logical source of said delivery targets.

Did Los Echos actually say the source was Airbus, or leaks and rumours ?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):

That being said, I found a second source at FlightGlobal from 2008 attributed to Francois Caudron, vice-president A350 customer and business development:

As far as I am aware, most of aircraft that would be built in 2013, were to be delivered the following year, likewise aircraft set for delivery in 2013 were to be built mainly in 2012 along with the remaining flight test airframes, during the ground/flight test schedule.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2011-12-07 06:13:14 and read 10761 times.

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 22):
I expect the flight test to have less issues (and therefore to be almost delay-free) thanks to the iron bird testing (a huge lesson learned from the A380).

Be careful with putting too much stock in iron birds vs. flight test delays...the 787 also had an iron bird. They're a great idea, no doubt, but they don't cure all flight test ills. Mostly because iron birds, by definition, don't actually fly.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from AB is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring.

Although I believe Zeke is correct (Airbus is communicating to customers and suppliers a lot), lack of very detailed schedule information at this point is, I think, a good thing. Anyone on a project of this scale who says "You'll get your delivery in this month (or even this quarter) of this year 3 or 4 or 5 years away" is just making stuff up. The "tolerance" stackup of projects of this scale on that timeline just doesn't let you have that kind of precision or accuracy.

The plane will fly when it's ready and it will deliver when it's ready. Not even Airbus knows when that is, so if they run around telling people that they know when that is then *that* would be suspicious.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
They are using their proven suppliers, and using the same production method, they are not facing the same issues.

Yes on suppliers and issues, but it's not the same production method. This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
They are not using unproven suppliers, unproven production techniques, or an unproven supply chain.

Yes on the supply chain and assembly techniques but no on the suppliers...all the 787 partners were large aviation suppliers with existing pedigrees.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-07 06:27:35 and read 10600 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

It is still panels over a frame being assembled at a first tier supplier, shipped to the FAL in once piece, just like the A330.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
.all the 787 partners were large aviation suppliers with existing pedigrees.

The composite spoilers were being made by an Austrian snowboard manufacturer with no aviation experience. None of the suppliers had ever built a one piece barrel before, or as far as I am aware a large composite wing box for an airliner.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: flipdewaf
Posted 2011-12-07 06:28:35 and read 10543 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
Yes on suppliers and issues, but it's not the same production method. This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

Although not the entire main structure, wasn't the A380 aft section made using this method?

Fred

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ebbuk
Posted 2011-12-07 06:59:20 and read 10230 times.

Quoting United727 (Reply 35):

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I certainly did ask for a comparison in a most "benign" manner...No need to argue children, lol

So that I am clear the question is not will the A350 have similar delays to the B787 but will it have equally lengthy delays as the B787? Clarity from the offset makes for healthy discussion, I find.

I want to have Zeke's confidence but as a non-industry enthusiast, who's been burnt before (A380), I won't go there. From the little I have read, RR's XWB engine is looking hot hot hot so. Just need to have all the other variables come up trumps too.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: YTZ
Posted 2011-12-07 07:06:01 and read 10157 times.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
United is going to have made one billion dollars in profit this year. They the most profitable US airline and one of the most profitable in the world.

This year. How'd they do the last couple? I'm not saying they are not profitable. All I suggested is that delays might be a blessing in disguise sometimes for airlines. If they are having trouble raising financing, delays help. During the last credit crunch, it might well have been challenging to finance $5 billion worth of airplanes.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements

I didn't say they won't take delivery. I just suggested that it's wrong to think that they necessarily mind the delays. They might. But nobody here really knows the truth.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-07 07:43:16 and read 9772 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 39):
Did Los Echos actually say the source was Airbus, or leaks and rumours?

They did not provide a source, but as their comments track directly to those comments from M. Caudron's comments from two years earlier, that seems the most logical source as opposed to a leak or a rumor.



Quoting zeke (Reply 39):
As far as I am aware, most of aircraft that would be built in 2013, were to be delivered the following year, likewise aircraft set for delivery in 2013 were to be built mainly in 2012 along with the remaining flight test airframes, during the ground/flight test schedule.

That makes sense based on M. Caudron's 2008-era delivery projection as well as other information.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: 747400sp
Posted 2011-12-07 08:21:51 and read 9332 times.

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):
As for UA, nothing to be sensitive about...I'm a pre-9/11 airline brat from the "real" UA (back in the day). UA is nothing but a shell of its namesake from the glory days of long ago.

UA used to be a modern Pan Am in pre-9/11, they even had anround the world service with a 744, 763 and 772, I believe it was flight 1 LAX-HKG-BOM-LHR-IAD-LAX. Now post merger DL has taken a lot of UA thrunder, UA was going down hill before there merger with CO.


AS for the A350, EK told them, that if the A350 have the same delays that Airbus had with the A380, then EK do not mind going to Boeing to order 777s in the A350s place. Thurth is, if Airbus wants to get a outstanding reputation with the A350, they better try to keep the delays as small as possiable.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2011-12-07 08:45:40 and read 9101 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
Quoting zeke (Reply 21):
I am the same, and I do not like it how every A350 related thread has been driven to be a comparison to the 777 and 787 by the same people. Makes one think if there is an orchestrated effort to muddy the A350 program.
Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
If you want to discuss the 787 production issues, take it to the 787 production thread.

If you want to discuss the A350 without mentioning the 787 program, maybe you should post in a thread that doesn't mention both IN THE TITLE. Seriously, this thread is about the A350 delay potential in relation to the 787 disaster of a program.

Currently, the A350 delays are design only. That would mean that if all else went well, they would be able to ramp up and deliver on the same schedule, though delayed.

But if they encounter similar complicated change incorporation problems to the 787 and A380, there is little chance that the "stockpiled" aircraft would be deliverable in 2014. Again, look at the 787 and A380 programs for recent history on this.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: RoseFlyer
Posted 2011-12-07 09:21:40 and read 8727 times.

It is too early to know if there will be a another delay, but it is also too early to know if it will deliver on time. At this point in the build process, Airbus and its suppliers are completing qualification tests on the critical long lead design parts. Flight Control Actuation, landing gear actuation, brakes, hydraulic pumps, electrical generators, power distribution, environment control systems, etc are some of the longest lead items in the airplane for example and right now is when they are working on completing endurance/limit/life cycle etc testing on each component. It is always possible that something will be found that requires redesign. Problems in testing are expected, and in fact if everything went through smoothly, it is reflective of a bad design since that means the components were overdesigned (too heavy). There are always design conditions that are overlooked in designing components, so problems and failures happen for that reason as well.

Some of the big problems that lead to delays such as an overlooked electrical redundancy problem (787), troubled flight controls (747-8), configuration control of electrical wiring (A380) are the type of items that still can pop up in the design. Everyone likes to criticize the CEO or management for the delays, but they are often technical in nature and management's ability to react to problems is what prevents delays. The certification process for a new airliner is more robust now than it has ever been before which is why we see such stunning in service safety records of newly designed airplanes. The FAA and EASA are in tight control of the design certification. The result is that a problem in any of the complex systems can come up. Sometimes a redesign with even the most experienced engineers can take months and even years.

There are many reasons for delays, and we can only hope that Airbus is able to react to problems efficiently and they don't end up with a problem that takes months and years to solve. What failures in qualification and certification occur are usually not predicatable since if they were, they would not have been designed that way.

[Edited 2011-12-07 09:22:19]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: steffenbn
Posted 2011-12-07 12:12:50 and read 7256 times.

Quoting United727 (Thread starter):
Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?  

Who would really know that untill the A350 is at EIS??   

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 13:02:54 and read 6838 times.

AB is behind schedule from their published 2008 plan:
http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?ItemID=23706

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 47):


If you want to discuss the A350 without mentioning the 787 program, maybe you should post in a thread that doesn't mention both IN THE TITLE. Seriously, this thread is about the A350 delay potential in relation to the 787 disaster of a program.

I couldn't agree more.

Quoting zeke (Reply 39):
How could you quote my reply 13 if you only read the title ?

Please re-read what I wrote, that is not what I wrote - not even close.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from AB is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring.

Although I believe Zeke is correct (Airbus is communicating to customers and suppliers a lot), lack of very detailed schedule information at this point is, I think, a good thing. Anyone on a project of this scale who says "You'll get your delivery in this month (or even this quarter) of this year 3 or 4 or 5 years away" is just making stuff up. The "tolerance" stackup of projects of this scale on that timeline just doesn't let you have that kind of precision or accuracy.

Regardless of how much a) real time information AB is sharing with customers, that is no substitute for b) official statements on the time line from AB. They (a and b) are two different things entirely. Customers do not have the ability to project the timeline, only the manufacturer can do that - and even they often lack this ability, witness A380 and B787 delays.

With the recent history of delays, when a public manufacturer gets quiet on the timeline on a project this size and with the amount of new technology being attempted (as in publicly quiet), to me, that's an indication that the timeline will probably change. Nobody knows for sure, not even AB. I am not criticizing AB and I don't think anyone should be surprised or upset when unanticipated things come up. They inevitably will, IMHO.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2011-12-07 13:16:36 and read 6693 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 50):
I am not criticizing AB and I don't think anyone should be surprised or upset when unanticipated things come up. They inevitably will, IMHO.

I also would not be not be surprised if the careful approach Airbus has selected will result in winning back some of the now projected lost (still rather small) time. Because unanticipated things (can) come up. They might do so.  .

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 50):
With the recent history of delays, when a public manufacturer gets quiet on the timeline on a project this size and with the amount of new technology being attempted (as in publicly quiet), to me, that's an indication that the timeline will probably change.

Airbus has been all but quiet about the delays, and the therefore adjusted time line. So I do not know where you would base this text on.  

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 13:23:29 and read 6621 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
What you what to say is that some magic bullet of information is being deliberately withheld which would prove that Airbus is totally incompetent, and Boeing is the only manufacturer any airline should ever but aircraft from.

No. That is not what I think, say, said, wrote, insinuate or want to say - or anything else along those lines.

Quoting United727 (Thread starter):
Exactly what is the current status of the A350 and its sub-variants?

The latest is that AB announced a 6 month delay (on NOV 10, 2011). I will applaud AB if they can avoid any further delays, but I am not confident in that. Things will pop up IMHO, as the 1st frame is not even finished yet, much less flying and tested.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 13:25:50 and read 6610 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 51):
So I do not know where you would base this text on.

Based on the fact that I did not see their Nov 10 delay announcement until now - my bad.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: UALWN
Posted 2011-12-07 13:32:06 and read 6505 times.

Deleted. Unnecessary after reply #53.

[Edited 2011-12-07 13:33:30]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: AADC10
Posted 2011-12-07 13:47:01 and read 6441 times.

Obviously the A350 has already been delayed but the 787 was Boeing's first use of extensive outsourcing and obviously had trouble with it. Airbus for the most part has done that all along and has far more experience and is less likely to face problems there.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 4):
UA might well be happy with a short delay (even if they complain about it publicly...).

UA will probably need the A350 by the time it is ready. The 744s will be more than ripe for retirement by then. UA might even park the 744s before the A350s arrive if fuel prices go high enough.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2011-12-07 14:21:53 and read 6326 times.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 55):
Obviously the A350 has already been delayed but the 787 was Boeing's first use of extensive outsourcing and obviously had trouble with it. Airbus for the most part has done that all along and has far more experience and is less likely to face problems there.

If outsourcing turns out to be the only potential place for problems, sure.

But what problems did the A380 face?
Design issues
Production issues
Wiring issues
Customization issues
Ramp-up issues
Wing strength issues
Change incorporation delays
Management issues
Post delivery engine issues

What problems did/does the 748 face?
Worker strike
Resource availability
Control system issues
Weight issues
Engine performance issues
Change incorporation delays
??

What problems did/does the 787 face?
Worker strike
Supplier issues
Sub-contractor issues
Design issues
Performance issues
Engine issues
Change incorporation issues
Management issues (epic)
Electrical Issues
Ramp-up issues
Flight test delays (no available GE spec aircraft!)
Weight issues

What problems has/will the A350 face
Design issues
Weight issues
Engine performance issues
Ramp-up issues?
Change incorporation delays?
Management issues?
Worker strike(s)?

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2011-12-07 15:21:26 and read 6208 times.

Quoting United727 (Reply 35):
LOL, Neil, there have been plenty of times I've wanted to use this same sentiment for your posts with specific regard to UA.  

In the future, try it. It frequently works  

NS

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2011-12-07 15:41:30 and read 6169 times.

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):
Quoting gigneil (Reply 3):
We simply don't have any now. None exists.

So one wonders... Is A is keeping information about the A350 from the public for a reason????

EADS/Airbus has been very slow, like Boeing, in announcing or confirming program delays. They have done that with the A-400 program which is now 4 years late, and they did it with the delays on the A-380 program, which still has not come up to the production point Airbus wanted (they have delivered now about 60 A-380s in 4 years, but had wanted to have delivered twice that number).

Like Boeing, I expect Airbus to announce A-350 delays in dribs and drabs.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: qfa787380
Posted 2011-12-07 17:21:52 and read 6009 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 58):
Like Boeing, I expect Airbus to announce A-350 delays in dribs and drabs.

Agreed and like Boeing, I expect 6 months might be the magic number.
Interesting that nobody has bothered to mention the many analysts that expect more 350 delays:

Some of these include Aboulafia/Leeham.net/Aspire Aviation, as well as the reports from Bernstein etc. Q2 2014 EIS will invariably slide further IMO. Airbus still have to work out what to do with the heavy 358 as well. I think it will be scrapped.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2011-12-07 18:45:17 and read 5901 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 41):
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
.all the 787 partners were large aviation suppliers with existing pedigrees.

The composite spoilers were being made by an Austrian snowboard manufacturer with no aviation experience.

Partners is not the same thing as suppliers, at least on the 787. In addition, the 787 spoilers are made by FACC as a sub-contractor Hawker De Havilland (now Boeing Australia). FACC has been making composite parts for quite some time, makes parts for all the airliner OEM's, and doesn't make snowboards as far as I can tell.
http://www.facc.at/en/aktuelles/pres..._for_the_new_Boeing_787_Dreamliner

Quoting zeke (Reply 41):
None of the suppliers had ever built a one piece barrel before, or as far as I am aware a large composite wing box for an airliner.

True, but neither of those components were supplier issues in the 787 delay so it's not appropriate to connect them to any similar type A350 delay.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 50):
Regardless of how much a) real time information AB is sharing with customers, that is no substitute for b) official statements on the time line from AB. They (a and b) are two different things entirely. Customers do not have the ability to project the timeline, only the manufacturer can do that - and even they often lack this ability, witness A380 and B787 delays.

My point wasn't that "they often lack this ability", my point was that they *always* lack this ability. From this far away, any official statements on timeline with respect to EIS are, at best, good to about half a year.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-07 21:09:32 and read 5734 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):
My point wasn't that "they often lack this ability", my point was that they *always* lack this ability. From this far away, any official statements on timeline with respect to EIS are, at best, good to about half a year.

I mostly agree with you. The thrust of what I was saying was better said like this:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 58):
EADS/Airbus has been very slow, like Boeing, in announcing or confirming program delays. They have done that with the A-400 program which is now 4 years late, and they did it with the delays on the A-380 program

I find it hard to believe, that in a bit over 2 years, the A350 will be in regular airline service. AB's current prediction is a 1st half of 2014 service entry. Then again, nothing is impossible, but the time line now seems wound tight as a drum.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2011-12-08 01:31:12 and read 5337 times.

Don't worry, I have complete faith in Airbus striving for continued leadership in the Aviation industry. Even in delays....

So far I have seen nothing that persuades me that Airbus is ahead of the game. What I have seen makes it more and more likely that they will jog down the same path the 787 took. Maybe some different music on thier iPod, maybe some different sights seen, but same general path to same general destination. I'd put some money down on the -900 being late, the -800 being dead, and the -1000 being a good bit different than what was ordered by the airlines at the time. Just like the -8 is late, the -3 is dead, and the -9 is not the same.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 56):
But what problems did the A380 face?

You forgot that there was a strike and some other labor issues during the A380 troubles. That said I'm not sure that either Boeing or Airbus lost a single actual day due to these strikes as there was plenty of trouble happening outside of the Assembly/Rework that had nothing to do with the labor.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: dynamicsguy
Posted 2011-12-08 02:29:50 and read 5224 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 41):
The composite spoilers were being made by an Austrian snowboard manufacturer with no aviation experience.
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):
In addition, the 787 spoilers are made by FACC as a sub-contractor Hawker De Havilland (now Boeing Australia)

You beat me to the punch Tom   Now Boeing Aerostructures Australia, BTW.

FACC have been making airplane parts since the mid 80s, and the ski manufacturer no longer has anything to do with FACC. They must be terribly incapable, since they're a tier 1 supplier on the A350.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-08 03:27:54 and read 5126 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):

That makes sense based on M. Caudron's 2008-era delivery projection as well as other information.

So you understand that an aircraft takes more than a few weeks to make, long lead time items take over a year before delivery from manufacture.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 47):
If you want to discuss the A350 without mentioning the 787 program, maybe you should post in a thread that doesn't mention both IN THE TITLE. Seriously, this thread is about the A350 delay potential in relation to the 787 disaster of a program.

Most people are mature enough to look past the headline and read the article. In this case it is the OP. The OP wants to discusses the same issues as found on the 787. The issues on the 787 were addressed during the A350 program development made famous with the Airbus “lessons learnt” document previously discussed on a.net, the two peojects have no similar issues.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 50):

Regardless of how much a) real time information AB is sharing with customers, that is no substitute for b) official statements on the time line from AB. They (a and b) are two different things entirely.

I know of no industry where the customer gets better information on the procurement of manufactured items from public statements with safe harbour clauses design for the financial markets.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 52):

No. That is not what I think, say, said, wrote, insinuate or want to say - or anything else along those lines.

Well I am totally confused as to what you are trying to convey. It does not relate in any way to the opening post. Are you still claiming there is not enough information on the A350 ?

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 52):

The latest is that AB announced a 6 month delay (on NOV 10, 2011).

No, that was already announced, there are previous a.net threads about that. This would be included in the large bucket of information that is out there already that you claim does not exist.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):
Partners is not the same thing as suppliers, at least on the 787. In addition, the 787 spoilers are made by FACC as a sub-contractor Hawker De Havilland (now Boeing Australia). FACC has been making composite parts for quite some time, makes parts for all the airliner OEM's, and doesn't make snowboards as far as I can tell.

Well information I have is that their engineering reports are well below standard, having to be redone at great expense and time by Boeing, and they have not been able to make any parts consistently to spec, and not to the required design life requiring expensive parts replacement by customer airlines.

Who is making them these days ? Who is doing the engineering reports ?

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):

True, but neither of those components were supplier issues in the 787 delay so it's not appropriate to connect them to any similar type A350 delay.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ion-of-alenia-787-sections-331032/

These are different issues from the A350 as I have been saying previously. The new unproven manufacturing technique was an issue for the 787.

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 63):

It is entirely appropriate to compare the two aircraft since IT'S IN THE THREAD TITLE.

A person who just debates the headline without reading the opening post is not helping anyone. The opening post was comparing the same issues between teh two projects. The two aircraft are being designed and manufactured very differently, mainly due to the way Airbus sees the A350 production being ramped up.

At the current production rate of the 787, the A350 will over take it on delivered airframes. Airbus is concentrating on how to deliver more airframes, not how to produce the coolest widget, or the best Pokémon static display aircraft on the right marketing date, or the most radical supply chain or manufacturing techniques.

The A350 is engineering driven, all of the delays have been driven by the engineers. Rolling out an incomplete aircraft with inappropriate fasteners and components just to meet a marketing date is not being driven by engineering. The issues being face between the A380 and 787 are very different.

The A350 maybe boring in terms of using the same suppliers, same techniques, and same supply chain as previous projects, however that boring is what the industry reads as being reliable.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ebbuk
Posted 2011-12-08 04:27:39 and read 4994 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 68):
A person who just debates the headline without reading the opening post is not helping anyone. The opening post was comparing the same issues between teh two projects. The two aircraft are being designed and manufactured very differently, mainly due to the way Airbus sees the A350 production being ramped up.

At the current production rate of the 787, the A350 will over take it on delivered airframes. Airbus is concentrating on how to deliver more airframes, not how to produce the coolest widget, or the best Pokémon static display aircraft on the right marketing date, or the most radical supply chain or manufacturing techniques.

The A350 is engineering driven, all of the delays have been driven by the engineers. Rolling out an incomplete aircraft with inappropriate fasteners and components just to meet a marketing date is not being driven by engineering. The issues being face between the A380 and 787 are very different.

The A350 maybe boring in terms of using the same suppliers, same techniques, and same supply chain as previous projects, however that boring is what the industry reads as being reliable.

Beautifully put. I salute you.

I am not sure if the person starting the thread was not a tad mischievous in the wording such as to cause all this rumpus? The issues are never going to be "similar" simply because they are designed and built differently. A similar length of delay to the 7- so late- 7 for the 350XWB? I sincerely hope not.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: garpd
Posted 2011-12-08 04:47:35 and read 4936 times.

I think Airbus have the advantage of hindsight here. They've seen what cause Boeing headaches and delays and will avoid those situations as best they can.

Besides, the A350 is being constructed in a completely different fashion. Will it turn out to be simpler or just as complicated? We'll soon see.

I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example. But for now, without any hard facts, it's not fair to speculate.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-08 05:31:31 and read 4877 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
I think Airbus have the advantage of hindsight here. They've seen what cause Boeing headaches and delays and will avoid those situations as best they can.

Many on this forum claimed Boeing would see a smooth EIS for the 787 because of the "lessons learned" from watching Airbus' fumbles on the A380...

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2011-12-08 05:33:55 and read 4867 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
Will it turn out to be simpler or just as complicated?


In the end with so many systems it will most likely be as complicated as a B787, but probably less complicated as an A380.

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example. But for now, without any hard facts, it's not fair to speculate.


Too bad that some Boeing fans actually seem to hope for this and that they are reflecting the mishaps on the B787 program to the A350 program.   But these are incomparable as Airbus has learned from the A380 (is still learning) and to a lesser degree from the B787. New issues could always arise though, but it could also be that the careful approach will pay off later on and that they are best suited for whatever will happen in the program. And if almost nothing out of the ordinary happens, they might gain time back from the original schedules.  .

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: garpd
Posted 2011-12-08 05:34:36 and read 4855 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 71):
Many on this forum claimed Boeing would see a smooth EIS for the 787 because of the "lessons learned" from watching Airbus' fumbles on the A380...

Good point

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: abba
Posted 2011-12-08 05:37:25 and read 4855 times.

Quoting ebbuk (Reply 69):
I am not sure if the person starting the thread was not a tad mischievous in the wording such as to cause all this rumpus?



I felt that too, unfortunately

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example. But for now, without any hard facts, it's not fair to speculate.



I am afraid that this is very much the case...

But as has been stated by others, the philosophy of Airbus is different from that of Boeing in that they will not proceed to the next stage with known problems unsolved. However, the final tests might prove yet unknown problems in the design. The problem of the 787 is that it did have many known - and now for us also well known - problems when it was first rolled out! This seems not to be the case with the 350.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2011-12-08 06:18:23 and read 4800 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 68):
These are different issues from the A350 as I have been saying previously. The new unproven manufacturing technique was an issue for the 787.

What about the manufacturing technique was unproven or caused delays? The only 787 delays that related to the wing was the wing/body join problem and that was a design, not manufacturing, problem.

Quoting zeke (Reply 68):
Well information I have is that their engineering reports are well below standard, having to be redone at great expense and time by Boeing, and they have not been able to make any parts consistently to spec, and not to the required design life requiring expensive parts replacement by customer airlines.

Who is making them these days ? Who is doing the engineering reports ?

I have to defer to Dynamicsguy for the first paragraph, but that's certainly the first I've ever heard of spoiler manufacturing or documentation problems. If that's really what's happening they're managing to keep it *very* quiet...unlikely basically every other problem in the history of the 787 program.

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):

I think Airbus have the advantage of hindsight here. They've seen what cause Boeing headaches and delays and will avoid those situations as best they can.

All the OEM's always avoid the problems of the prior aircraft...the 787 didn't repeat any of the A380 problems (see, Boeing learned!), the A350 won't repeat any of the 787 or A380 problems (see, Airbus learned!) but you can bet that the A350 will discover new problems that none of the other three had before. This isn't a dig on Airbus or the A350, it's the nature of very large innovative industrial projects.

Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example. But for now, without any hard facts, it's not fair to speculate.

I don't think you'll find many who truly deserve the title "fan" that *want* to see the A350 delayed. I, for one, would be really pleased to see *any* OEM kick out a realistic airpliner on a realistic schedule in the modern age just to restore my faith that it's actually possible.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 72):
Too bad that some Boeing fans actually seem to hope for this and that they are reflecting the mishaps on the B787 program to the A350 program.   But these are incomparable as Airbus has learned from the A380 (is still learning) and to a lesser degree from the B787.

They're not at all "incomparable". It's certainly true that all the OEM's learn from each others' mistakes...that's why you don't see them repeating mistakes. They're very good at finding new ones though.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: pygmalion
Posted 2011-12-08 07:05:43 and read 4695 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 71):
But as has been stated by others, the philosophy of Airbus is different from that of Boeing in that they will not proceed to the next stage with known problems unsolved. However, the final tests might prove yet unknown problems in the design. The problem of the 787 is that it did have many known - and now for us also well known - problems when it was first rolled out! This seems not to be the case with the 350.

While that makes a great bumper sticker slogan. And it might seem great for Airbus to do so.... that hasn't really been their practice.

The biggest part of the A380 issues were the wiring installations getting WAY ahead of the engineering changes and having to take it all apart to fix it. Similar issues were part and parcel to some of the A400 delays. At not time did they stop the line until issues we completely resolved

As a point of fact... No large corporation can hold the line till all issues are resolved. There is always a change, error and rework buffer built into the schedule that you hope is not completely eaten up by the time you get to the end. This is the reason for the first few airplanes to be built on a 45-60 day cycle to minimize this issue. Normally the best course you can take when find a problem is to rapidly work up a solution, implement as rapidly as possible and try to stay in your buffer. I appears that Airbus put in a healthy but not huge buffer as they should. They seem to me to be using up the engineering portion (hence the announced delays) but to say that they will not have a built in buffer for airframe assembly and test and that they will not use any up is naive to the extreme. And to say that their existing buffer is known to be big enough is also very wishful thinking. I can almost guarantee that Airbus has peeled down the planned assembly buffer to reduce the just announced delays and has taken more schedule risk into their plan. No company would just add any delay on to the end and not take on risk. They always try to build in recovery and assume some schedule recovery in their announcements.

Its just the normal and prudent way to run your business.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: RoseFlyer
Posted 2011-12-08 09:21:00 and read 4496 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 65):

Well information I have is that their engineering reports are well below standard, having to be redone at great expense and time by Boeing, and they have not been able to make any parts consistently to spec, and not to the required design life requiring expensive parts replacement by customer airlines.

Who is making them these days ? Who is doing the engineering reports ?

I'm a little confused as what you mean by engineering reports. Are you talking about certification plans and documentation, acceptance test criteria for each individual part, qualification testing for the overall design, component maintenance manual, or drawings? The only thing that would need to be "redone" by Boeing is items that feed into the certification plan, but those documents are done by Boeing anyway as Boeing certifies the part with the FAA, not the supplier. The qualification documentation is the responsibility of the supplier. Every qualification test report that comes in from a supplier can and usually is torn apart by Boeing. Even reports from the most experienced suppliers in the world can be trashed by a skilled Boeing (or Airbus) engineer. That's their job since the Boeing (or Airbus) engineer is responsible for the equipment on the airplane and what the requirements are. 787 allowed more design and specifications to be set by the supplier, but it wasn't a complete change. It's still reviewed within Boeing.

It doesn't surprise me at all that the documentation that came in from a supplier is junk. Some suppliers provide great work that is their attempt at as close to flawless as possible while others put sloppy work forward that is filled with typos, mistakes and sometimes does not even make sense. That's the nature of the business. The suppliers that are a challenge to work with are less likely to get more contracts down the road. The ones that provide very good documentation and are great to work with are also often the most expensive.

Airbus deals with the exact same suppliers that Boeing does, so I'm sure there are engineers right now cursing out suppliers for the quality of work they provided and for overlooking critical areas or even worse the supplier that is dishonest and tries to cover up mistakes and problems.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: abba
Posted 2011-12-08 12:04:38 and read 4325 times.

Quoting pygmalion (Reply 72):
The biggest part of the A380 issues were the wiring installations getting WAY ahead of the engineering changes and having to take it all apart to fix it. Similar issues were part and parcel to some of the A400 delays. At not time did they stop the line until issues we completely resolved



That is true. But that was actually - as far as I understand - a problem realised only late in the program that was basically due to different computer programs used for designing different parts of the aircraft that didn't match up to each other very well. Who knows if similar issues are waiting to be revealed when the 350 is to be assembled?

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: cmf
Posted 2011-12-08 12:17:51 and read 4302 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 61):
I find it hard to believe, that in a bit over 2 years, the A350 will be in regular airline service.

Why? Isn't it pretty much where it should be for that timeline? A year at assembly and working out those kinks and then a year for testing. Sounds right to me.

The problem, as always, is if the dragons show up.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-08 13:55:05 and read 4182 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 75):
Why? Isn't it pretty much where it should be for that timeline? A year at assembly and working out those kinks and then a year for testing. Sounds right to me.

The problem, as always, is if the dragons show up.

If AB can do it without any more hiccups, I applaud them. But they have already had more hiccups than planned and eaten up all the built in time line reserves. Now there doesn't seem to be any reserve built into the the updated timeline.

Quoting abba (Reply 70):
But as has been stated by others, the philosophy of Airbus is different from that of Boeing in that they will not proceed to the next stage with known problems unsolved.

Well, the wiring on many A380s had to be redone. It's just to simple to think you can stop the program until everything is fixed first, secondly many faults are not found until after they have been manufactured.

If this happens with the A350, they will have to go back and redo stuff. Another example is when AB had a slight issue with the A380 wing certification, where the A380 initially failed the test and AB had to satisfy the certification requirements in other ways.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 68):
Quoting garpd (Reply 70):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example. But for now, without any hard facts, it's not fair to speculate.

Too bad that some Boeing fans actually seem to hope for this and that they are reflecting the mishaps on the B787 program to the A350 program.

There is not a single post in this thread to indicate this - not even close. The actual facts surrounding the A350 delays are not make believe - they are real and have actually happened. Disusing them is not AB bashing or wishing ill onto AB or supporting B.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 67):
Many on this forum claimed Boeing would see a smooth EIS for the 787 because of the "lessons learned" from watching Airbus' fumbles on the A380...

Well put. This should be kept in mind when others predict smooth sailing on a complex project. If mistakes were not made, engineers wouldn't be human.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
A person who just debates the headline without reading the opening post is not helping anyone. The opening post was comparing the same issues between teh two projects.

I have not read a single post in this thread -, nor has anyone suggested, to respond only to the headline.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
Airbus is totally incompetent, and Boeing is the only manufacturer any airline should ever but aircraft from.
Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
Well I am totally confused as to what you are trying to convey. It does not relate in any way to the opening post.

Sorry you are confused. But I don't know how to be any more clear.

[Edited 2011-12-08 14:04:16]

[Edited 2011-12-08 14:11:39]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2011-12-08 14:23:36 and read 4165 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
A person who just debates the headline without reading the opening post is not helping anyone.

You obviously aren't helping anyone then...

Quoting United727 (Thread starter):
Is there any speculation that A will be plagued by the similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years?

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: cmf
Posted 2011-12-08 14:45:34 and read 4135 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 76):
Now there doesn't seem to be any reserve built into the the updated timeline.

Why do you say that? A year for assembly and another for testing seems very reasonable for handling normal problems.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 76):
But they have already had more hiccups than planned and eaten up all the built in time line reserves.

They just put time back in the project. Early problems does not mean it must continue like that.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 76):
Another example is when AB had a slight issue with the A380 wing certification, where the A380 initially failed the test and AB had to satisfy the certification requirements in other ways.

What are you trying to state with satisfy in other ways? To my knowledge it was all satisfied with straight forward engineering calculations after the early test failure. Best and easiest option after those circumstances.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 76):
This should be kept in mind when others predict smooth sailing on a complex project. If mistakes were not made, engineers wouldn't be human.

I don't think anyone is stating it will all be smooth sailing. But just because it isn't smooth doesn't mean we are facing a hurricane either.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-08 16:47:28 and read 4022 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 78):
Why do you say that? A year for assembly and another for testing seems very reasonable for handling normal problems.

And certification or rectifying any larger issues? That takes time and with the new build method/materials, I think certification will take its time.

In any case, nobody, not even AB knows for certain if the EIS will hold. I don't think it will, but I would applaud AB if they do. It's certainly in their interest to get it out asap. Not taking any sides here, but I have a hunch the recent spate in large 777 orders by A350 customers may indicate some uneasiness about the EIS on their part.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: cmf
Posted 2011-12-08 19:18:29 and read 3916 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 79):
And certification or rectifying any larger issues? That takes time and with the new build method/materials, I think certification will take its time.

They have a year. Seems that has been sufficient for most programs.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 79):
In any case, nobody, not even AB knows for certain if the EIS will hold.

The only certainty about the future is that there is no certainty  

You can't pad time lines to handle worst case scenarios. Doing so would be counter productive.

I'm not taking delays easy but there are things you can plan with great certainty and there are things you can't. I know it is hard to accept but some types of delays are perfectly acceptable. Not saying that is the case here, nor that it isn't. Do not have the info required to judge properly.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Rheinwaldner
Posted 2011-12-09 01:31:25 and read 3745 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 66):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays

The same people some years back commented any 787 delay rumour with grimly one-liners that without official confirmation there would be "no delay". Seems that they don't give the same credit to Airbus.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):
I have to defer to Dynamicsguy for the first paragraph, but that's certainly the first I've ever heard of spoiler manufacturing or documentation problems. If that's really what's happening they're managing to keep it *very* quiet...unlikely basically every other problem in the history of the 787 program.

No, the sources are there. It is just not easy to find specific problems documented in the Internet because the flood of google-hits is so overwhelming when you enter "787 delayed".

Her is one: http://www.geneawright.com/?p=96
Quote from it: Boeing engineers also are trying to match the documentation that is required for every part of the work that has been completed. “The documentation of work completed didn’t match with what has been shipped,” Bair says. “It’s taken some extra time.”

Other sources:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_i...sues%20Central%20To%20787%20Delays
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20070906/BIZ/109060067/0/JOBS
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20603927.../first-flight-boeings-new-delayed/ (Boeing has needed to clear up errors in documents its suppliers have sent with their pieces of the plane, Bair said.)
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ngaerospace/2003986894_bair01.html
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...ep2007/db2007095_956348_page_2.htm

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2011-12-09 06:27:00 and read 3515 times.

Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 81):
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):
I have to defer to Dynamicsguy for the first paragraph, but that's certainly the first I've ever heard of spoiler manufacturing or documentation problems. If that's really what's happening they're managing to keep it *very* quiet...unlikely basically every other problem in the history of the 787 program.

No, the sources are there.

I know the 787 had well documented supplier documentation problems, as the links you provided note. I was referring specifically to the spoilers, which Zeke had erroneously claimed came from a snowboard manufacturer with no prior aviation experience. None of the links you provided said anything about spoilers and I can't find anything on google that specifically talks about spoiler issues.

I agree with you that the documentation issues on several other topics (notably traveled work and fasteners) was significant and well publicized.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-09 07:25:43 and read 3464 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 66):
I know there are some Boeing fans here eager to see A350 delays, so as to make the 787 less of an example.

There are Airbus fans who have spent the last three and half years chortling mightily about the 787's delays so as to make the A380's EIS and production ramp woes less of an example after all the baloney tossed at that program by over-ardent Boeing fans. And to this day, you can't start an A380 thread without some chowderhead chiming in about the break-even point or the VLA market.   



Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 81):
The same people some years back commented any 787 delay rumour with grimly one-liners that without official confirmation there would be "no delay".

And the same Airbus fans commented that Airbus' "prudence" in giving their program an extra couple of years of development would almost assuredly mean the A350 would be able to make her original EIS date.



Alas, what goes around comes around.  

[Edited 2011-12-09 07:27:39]

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: frmrcapcadet
Posted 2011-12-09 07:52:52 and read 3388 times.

To repeat, the complexity of recent new airplanes and engines is likely at the edge of what the industry can do. And beyond what they expect to cost and can within expected time frames. I understand that no all new plane since the 757/767 and 330/340 have come in on budget, time, and with engines that would meet specs. Note, most planes/engines met some of their goals. This is not an A or B thing. It is industry wide.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: RoseFlyer
Posted 2011-12-09 11:51:19 and read 3155 times.

Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 81):
No, the sources are there. It is just not easy to find specific problems documented in the Internet because the flood of google-hits is so overwhelming when you enter "787 delayed".

Her is one: http://www.geneawright.com/?p=96
Quote from it: Boeing engineers also are trying to match the documentation that is required for every part of the work that has been completed. “The documentation of work completed didn’t match with what has been shipped,” Bair says. “It’s taken some extra time.”

Other sources:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_i...sues%20Central%20To%20787%20Delays
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20070906/BIZ/109060067/0/JOBS
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20603927.../first-flight-boeings-new-delayed/ (Boeing has needed to clear up errors in documents its suppliers have sent with their pieces of the plane, Bair said.)

You are commenting on a problem known as Configuration Control. During the early stages of building a new airplane there are always problems with configuration control. It happens at both Airbus and Boeing.

Parts are rapidly being revised and drawings are frequent getting updates and revisions during early production build as designs are being modified and customized for each airline. Part numbers are rolling. Boeing got in trouble because they were having suppliers do part number control and each one did it separately. On top of that Boeing was using a new parts system called ENOVIA which is an off the shelf program purchased from Dassault rather than their in house designed parts authority database. The result ended up with parts configurations that were being put together that were not documented properly. Wrong revisions of parts were showing up. That is almost exactly the same problem that plagued the A380.

Boeing had troubles because every supplier has a different parts structure and outsourcing some integration work to partners resulted in a mess. Airbus had problems because there were too many unique configurations on the A380. Both had major problems with change control and configuration control. Both Airbus and Boeing have large organizations responsible for managing the databases, but since all the engineering groups within the companies feed into the same database, it can be difficult to handle. Also Airbus had the problem of using both CATIA V4 and V5. The two systems do not talk to each other well. V4 is gone now, so that should help.

Will this happen to the A350? I would assume that Airbus invested millions after the A380 problems to get their part structure, change management and configuration control systems fixed. Even with the latest in computer technology, managing millions of parts is a challenge. I've read that they have drastically cut down the number of customer options and suppliers on the A350. There is guaranteed to be challenges, but I would assume that it won't lead to multi-year delays. As long as they have adequate engineering resources to keep up with the design changes and working with the suppliers, it shouldn't become a problem like it had for the 787 or A380, but only those inside Airbus know what is really going on. Things could be going smoothly, or engineers could be running around with their hair on fire, either way press releases are not going to tell us anything useful.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2011-12-09 13:43:40 and read 3036 times.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 85):
I've read that they have drastically cut down the number of customer options and suppliers on the A350.

Reminds me a Henry Ford's quote as he commented on the first automobile production line - Customers can have any color they want, so long as it's black.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-09 13:54:41 and read 3026 times.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 85):
I've read that they have drastically cut down the number of customer options and suppliers on the A350.
Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 86):
Reminds me a Henry Ford's quote as he commented on the first automobile production line - Customers can have any color they want, so long as it's black.

To be fair, such restrictions are not unique to Airbus and the A350.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: MoltenRock
Posted 2011-12-09 14:59:39 and read 2921 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 83):
There are Airbus fans who have spent the last three and half years chortling mightily about the 787's delays so as to make the A380's EIS and production ramp woes less of an example after all the baloney tossed at that program by over-ardent Boeing fans. And to this day, you can't start an A380 thread without some chowderhead chiming in about the break-even point or the VLA market.   

Alas, what goes around comes around.  

Do we really need to revisit the 500 threads "chortling" about if the 787 would fly / EIS before the A380?

The difference is, it is highly doubtful Airbus will incur a 3 1/2 year (if not more, as the 787 hasn't ramped up yet) delay in getting respectable numbers of A350s out the door, because Airbus didn't try to set new world records in both "snapping together airplanes", or record setting, multi-plane FAA/EASA certification processes. Not to mention the unprecedented ramp-up Boeing is still forecasting, at twice the speed of the 777, even with all of the technical challenges the program has faced. Essentially, the nearly ridiculous, over-optimistic schedule has cost Boeing tens of billions of $$$, so much so that the entire program's net breakeven is called into question at 1,100 units even.

Airbus was far, far, more conservative with both development and testing timelines, not to mention took a more conservative engineering path by using panels, bleed air, early composite spar, etc.... Will Airbus still face delays? Maybe / probably / could be. Will they be as long as the 787's 3 1/2 years and counting? Highly, highly, unlikely.

In fact, in this latest delay, Airbus' stated delay actually only involves about 8 weeks (2 months), but they padded their schedule an additional 4 months for future, unforeseen hiccups. Will this be enough to overcome any problems? Who knows?

That said, the delays of the 787 program are likely not over, as Boeing struggles to ramp up to their 10 787 per month from their 2.5 currently, in only 24 months from now.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 85):
Will this happen to the A350? I would assume that Airbus invested millions after the A380 problems to get their part structure, change management and configuration control systems fixed. Even with the latest in computer technology, managing millions of parts is a challenge. I've read that they have drastically cut down the number of customer options and suppliers on the A350. There is guaranteed to be challenges, but I would assume that it won't lead to multi-year delays.

Welcome to my respected list.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: RoseFlyer
Posted 2011-12-09 15:01:23 and read 2917 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 87):
Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 85):
I've read that they have drastically cut down the number of customer options and suppliers on the A350.
Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 86):
Reminds me a Henry Ford's quote as he commented on the first automobile production line - Customers can have any color they want, so long as it's black.

To be fair, such restrictions are not unique to Airbus and the A350.

No they are not at all. I think I remember the quote that on the 777, you can choose from 17 different coffee makers. Boeing cut that down to 3 on the 787.

I've also heard that an airline also has to pay extra if your seat does not come from their catalogue approved models or they can install it themselves. Not sure if that is true either.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: BoeEngr
Posted 2011-12-09 15:55:03 and read 2844 times.

Sure would be fantastic to see the men and women of Airbus (and the suppliers) complete the project without further delays. I wish them the best, and sit by eagerly watching the development.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2011-12-09 16:14:55 and read 2827 times.

I'm too tired to read all of the responses (although gigneil's trolling is always amusing) but the A350 will probably face the same manufacturing issues as it did for the 787.

Plastic (okay, composite) airframes are still struggling with fit & finish issues in manufacturing. The fasteners are not as easy to deal with as standard rivets; the assembly of sections is not as tolerant-flexible as metal airframes; accurate computer modeling of bending moments in composite airframes is still being worked out (whereas engineers have had 70 years+ to understand aluminum airframes).

Building composite-airframe military aircraft at the usual 1 or 2 per month rate normally allows schedule pad to get the job done properly (or maybe, not). But having to produce 10 to 20 composite frames a month for commercial use will be a major challenge for both Boeing and Airbus.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: zeke
Posted 2011-12-09 17:26:45 and read 2766 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):
FACC as a sub-contractor Hawker De Havilland

And who subcontracts to FACC ?

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 60):
but neither of those components were supplier issues in the 787 delay

Yes they were.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):

What about the manufacturing technique was unproven or caused delays?

The barrels, specifically the rear barrel section. Same supplier had other issues from memory down the back end also.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):
The only 787 delays that related to the wing was the wing/body join problem and that was a design, not manufacturing, problem.

The wing, specifically the wing box had a number of manufacturing issues, large components were sent between Japan and the USA while they worked the issues out. These would be the sort of issues Airbus sorted out with the composite manufacturing of the wing box for the A380 and A400M.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):

I have to defer to Dynamicsguy for the first paragraph, but that's certainly the first I've ever heard of spoiler manufacturing or documentation problems.

They exist. I know of a number of issues relating to the 787 paperwork as I had a number of friends employed on contract to Boeing over the last 4 years to sort it out. A lot of the paperwork related to continuing airworthiness and maintenance schedules where various spectrums need to be assessed. The certification paperwork was relatively more straightforward.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):

All the OEM's always avoid the problems of the prior aircraft..

No they don’t. No only in large aircraft, look at what is happening in the light jet area at the moment.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):
the 787 didn't repeat any of the A380 problems (see, Boeing learned!)

They did, and it is currently the biggest issue stopping more 787s getting produced. Too much unfinished work was allowed to proceed up the supply chain, and when the work gets done, it is taking longer, with more resources than originally planned. Same happened on the A380, unfinished wiring work resulted in large sections being sent to and from various locations for rework causing additional delays.

On the A350 they have decided not to proceed to the next step until the previous work is complete, like the A330.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 71):
but you can bet that the A350 will discover new problems that none of the other three had before.

Very much so.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 73):

I'm a little confused as what you mean by engineering reports. Are you talking about certification plans and documentation, acceptance test criteria for each individual part, qualification testing for the overall design, component maintenance manual, or drawings?

From what I understand all the documentation is not in place for a lot of components, and it continues to be worked on. Design loads and design lives cannot be substantiated in many cases, leading to installed parts requiring to be replaced earlier than planned. This leads to increased cost for the customers. there is nothing unsafe about the parts, the parts are just not as durable as planned and the aircraft then would be more expensive to operate.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 73):

Airbus deals with the exact same suppliers that Boeing does, so I'm sure there are engineers right now cursing out suppliers for the quality of work they provided and for overlooking critical areas or even worse the supplier that is dishonest and tries to cover up mistakes and problems.

On paper is might seem like they are using the same suppliers, however it is really how that relationship is setup rather than the companies involved, they deal with them differently, and often dealing with different manufacturing locations from the same parent entity. On the 787 Boeing expanded its supplier base rapidly, and pushed more responsibility onto the suppliers. This came back to bite them a number of times, and in numerous instances they had to send in their own engineers to sort issues out. They even bought the house in some cases to get things under control. On the A350 Airbus is essentially using the same supply chain as the A330, and building them much the same way. The main difference being the wings being added much later in the assembly process.

The issues between the two approaches are different as I previously indicated.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 76):

I have not read a single post in this thread

That would be the problem, I am trying to link in with what you have been posting and the rest of the thread.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 77):

You obviously aren't helping anyone then...

I have been keeping on track, by stating the same issues between the programs do not exist, as Tom stated above, that does not mean new issues will not arise, that is not however what the OP was asking.

Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 81):
the sources are there. It is just not easy to find specific problems documented in the Internet because the flood of google-hits is so overwhelming when you enter "787 delayed".

I think putting "787 documentation from overseas suppliers" will get a number of relevant hits.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 83):

There are Airbus fans who have spent the last three and half years chortling mightily about the 787's delays so as to make the A380's EIS and production ramp woes less of an example after all the baloney tossed at that program by over-ardent Boeing fans.

I have lost count of the number of times people actually posted how "civil" the threads relating to the 787 were compared to the A380. No thread on the 787 was ever as terse as this A350 thread, and it has got that way as people have seen it as an opportunity to bash Airbus and the A350 rather than answering the question actually asked.

You can tell the difference from the people in the industry from the outsiders in the posts above. Those in the industry do not assume any further delays are guaranteed, nor would they rule them out. They know manufacturers may need to delay part of a process for the overall good of the project. They know they will be trying their best not to delay things.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: cmf
Posted 2011-12-09 17:59:53 and read 2706 times.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 91):
accurate computer modeling of bending moments in composite airframes is still being worked out (whereas engineers have had 70 years+ to understand aluminum airframes).

The boat industry's use of composites goes back some 70 years as well. They have developed accurate modeling that should be applicable to aviation too. We have had zero problems using it for house construction but I accept that is a much simpler environment.

Topic: RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2011-12-09 18:52:51 and read 2673 times.

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 88):
Airbus was far, far, more conservative with both development and testing timelines, not to mention took a more conservative engineering path by using panels, bleed air, early composite spar, etc....

Yes they were. And I agree that it should prevent the massive fumble Boeing had with the 787, which took 7.5 years to deliver to NH.

But that more conservative approach also meant a later EIS. QR ordered the original specification in June of 2005. They converted that order to the XWB in June of 2007, so they could be waiting up to 7 years for their first A350XWB (and 9 years total). That said, they at least knew up front they would be waiting some six years for it.

[Edited 2011-12-09 19:47:37]


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