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Topic: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Qazar
Posted 2012-01-09 05:28:18 and read 4973 times.

I came across this article about the imminent privatization of TAP:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...to-offload-its-state-asset-366120/

The article only seems to mention IAG's interest and nothing about Lufthansa's interest.... I remember sometime ago LH had made a comment of its interest in TAP. I also assume with the very likely loss of TAM to OneWorld, Star Alliance may be very interested in securing their Europe-Brazil links by holding on even more to TAP.... Any info on this subject from the Airliners.net community?

Cheers!

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-09 05:44:31 and read 4937 times.

Quoting Qazar (Thread starter):
Any info on this subject from the Airliners.net community?

You can file this one under: Belive it when you see it.
TP's privatization has been "imminent" every year, for the past 10 years. There are so many strings attached to the privatization, including a large stake in the airline owned by the unions, that I don't believe many private investors would be interested in the airline in its current form.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-09 06:25:35 and read 4859 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 1):
You can file this one under: Belive it when you see it.
TP's privatization has been "imminent" every year, for the past 10 years. There are so many strings attached to the privatization, including a large stake in the airline owned by the unions, that I don't believe many private investors would be interested in the airline in its current form.

Currently there are several issues in Europe and Brazil which say "sooner rather then later" ? The merger of TAM and it likely leaving the Star alliance will create a huge void for TAP in Brazil. The Euro crisis means the government in Lisbon will need to cash in state owned assets. TAP 's world is changing around it and it needs to adapt by likely joining a larger airlne group. With IB next door IAG would seem to be the better option for TAP as there are little in neighboring Star alliance airlines.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: slz396
Posted 2012-01-09 06:30:19 and read 4834 times.

Question is: will the EU allow IAG to own both IB as well as TP? Given both are from the same peninsula and both have a focus on south America, my take is no...

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-09 07:03:46 and read 4761 times.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 3):
Question is: will the EU allow IAG to own both IB as well as TP? Given both are from the same peninsula and both have a focus on south America, my take is no...

Thats like saying the same airline group shouldn't own KLM and Air France or Swiss & Lufthansa. TAP draws mainly from Brazil, 8 cities, and doesn't fly to Mexico, Buenos Aires, Lima, Santiago or Bogota. IB does fly to Brazil and every other Latin city. Very little overlap here from both the European side and the Latin side.

Lufthansa and AF cover Latin America very well from their main hub in northern Europe, the days of IB being the only whale in the market are over.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: santos
Posted 2012-01-09 08:30:23 and read 4621 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
TAP draws mainly from Brazil, 8 cities

10 Cities actually, and with GRU getting slot restricted, it's a market that can't be ignored.
I'm sure privatisation will happen eventually, worst part will be the unions, they are ruining TP.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-09 10:58:48 and read 4439 times.

Quoting santos (Reply 5):
10 Cities actually, and with GRU getting slot restricted, it's a market that can't be ignored.
I'm sure privatisation will happen eventually, worst part will be the unions, they are ruining TP.

IAG's Willie Walsh knows how to deal with that.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-09 11:41:24 and read 4361 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
The merger of TAM and it likely leaving the Star alliance will create a huge void for TAP in Brazil.

This just makes TP stronger and more valuable to *A because unlike other *A carriers who need a domestic partner in Brazil, TP doesn't because they already serve 10 different cities in Brazil from their hub in Europe. TP relies little on connections from TAM within S.America and Brazil. And it's not like TAM is the only airline in Brazil who can fill that role.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
The Euro crisis means the government in Lisbon will need to cash in state owned assets.

They also need a buyer and so far there hasn't been anyone willing to buy, primarily because of all the strings attached. And with the unions having such a stronghold on the airline and in domestic politics, those strings aren't about to be cut.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
TAP 's world is changing around it and it needs to adapt by likely joining a larger airlne group.

I don't agree. *A is the right place for them, far more than IAG or OW. If they leave *A they will meet certain death.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: tff
Posted 2012-01-09 15:01:43 and read 4145 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 7):
I don't agree. *A is the right place for them, far more than IAG or OW. If they leave *A they will meet certain death.

I do agree in relation to IAG/OW, but I'm not that sure if that would be the case if they were bought by AF/KL (who doesn't seem to be interested either way) and joined ST.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-09 16:56:43 and read 4042 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 7):
. And with the unions having such a stronghold on the airline and in domestic politics, those strings aren't about to be cut

Those are ingredients that have shown to be fatal for airlines in the long run. How many airlines in Europe have shut down or had to be reborn as the new "alitalia".

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Qazar
Posted 2012-01-09 17:41:02 and read 3985 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
Quoting slz396 (Reply 3):
Question is: will the EU allow IAG to own both IB as well as TP? Given both are from the same peninsula and both have a focus on south America, my take is no...

Thats like saying the same airline group shouldn't own KLM and Air France or Swiss & Lufthansa. TAP draws mainly from Brazil, 8 cities, and doesn't fly to Mexico, Buenos Aires, Lima, Santiago or Bogota. IB does fly to Brazil and every other Latin city. Very little overlap here from both the European side and the Latin side.

Lufthansa and AF cover Latin America very well from their main hub in northern Europe, the days of IB being the only whale in the market are over.

The problem isn't IB and TP being part of the same group, rather IB, TP, LA, and JJ all part of the same alliance... Those 4 airlines put together may actually account for something like 80% of the traffic between Europe and South America... That would raise the issues with the competition regulators!

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: VV701
Posted 2012-01-09 19:25:26 and read 3908 times.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 3):
Question is: will the EU allow IAG to own both IB as well as TP? Given both are from the same peninsula

So no chance of IAG, owners of British airline BA, being allowed to complete their purchase of British airline BD given that both are from the same island and operate out of the same hub?

And how did LH get permission to purchase either LX, OS or SN when ZRH and VIE are only 162 and 221 miles respectively from the LH MUC hub and BRU is just 189 miles from the LH FRA hub?

Note here that even though they are on the same peninsula the TP hub at LIS is significantly further from the IB hub at MAD than any of the above hub pairs. They are 320 miles apart.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Boeing773ER
Posted 2012-01-09 20:09:16 and read 3877 times.

Quoting Qazar (Reply 10):
The problem isn't IB and TP being part of the same group, rather IB, TP, LA, and JJ all part of the same alliance... Those 4 airlines put together may actually account for something like 80% of the traffic between Europe and South America... That would raise the issues with the competition regulators!

I think this is a very valid reason to block an acquisition of TP .

I have a feeling that TP will remain in the hands of *A for a very long time.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2012-01-10 01:57:45 and read 3753 times.

Current stocks are so low that privatisation would mean to give the airline awy for 10-20% of what it is worth. Portugal has the choice to give TAP away to IAG, which means it becomes a small regional carrier, for almost free, or to give it to LH for almost free, but for getting something from selling it is a year too late. I think they better keep it until nobody believes in the lies that there is a crisis any longer.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: VV701
Posted 2012-01-10 05:48:43 and read 3608 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 13):
Current stocks are so low that privatisation would mean to give the airline awy for 10-20% of what it is worth.

Here the problem is that the Portugese government needs the money today and not tomorrow. This is, of course, one reason that the stock price is low.

The alternative is to get the money from elsewhere and not to wait until the market hopefully improves. And if they cannot get the money from elsewhere then the money they might get at a future date from selling TP could well be much lower than what they might get today.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-01-10 06:20:42 and read 3558 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 11):
And how did LH get permission to purchase either LX, OS or SN when ZRH and VIE are only 162 and 221 miles respectively from the LH MUC hub and BRU is just 189 miles from the LH FRA hub?

It is rather breathtaking to me to witness how Lufthansa has been able to - with seemingly little to no regulatory challenge - take over basically every major network airline in Central and German-speaking Europe, and yet there is even a suggestion of IAG being challenged in trying to take over TAP. How is that double-standard possible? Lufthansa can take over Swiss, Austrian and Brussels, and yet Iberia and TAP can't be owned by the same holding company?

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Bongodog1964
Posted 2012-01-10 06:28:49 and read 3547 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 13):
Current stocks are so low that privatisation would mean to give the airline awy for 10-20% of what it is worth.

The reason for the low stock price is that its basically worthless in its current form, its true worth is its present stock value plus a takeover premium of 10 - 20%. In the words of Margaret Thatcher "you can't buck the market"

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-10 08:20:22 and read 3481 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9):
Those are ingredients that have shown to be fatal for airlines in the long run. How many airlines in Europe have shut down or had to be reborn as the new "alitalia".

I don't disagree here. But by the same token, airlines like AF are suffering as well.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 13):
I think they better keep it until nobody believes in the lies that there is a crisis any longer.

I'm pretty sure that is the most likely scenario. The Portuguese economic crisis has been greatly overblown. Portugal is a tiny economy and many people in Portugal believe that they are being bullied by the larger Euro economies into giving up whatever little valuable assets they have which would be used to feed the Euro ponzi scheme.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Bongodog1964
Posted 2012-01-10 08:46:43 and read 3440 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 13):I think they better keep it until nobody believes in the lies that there is a crisis any longer.
I'm pretty sure that is the most likely scenario. The Portuguese economic crisis has been greatly overblown. Portugal is a tiny economy and many people in Portugal believe that they are being bullied by the larger Euro economies into giving up whatever little valuable assets they have which would be used to feed the Euro ponzi scheme.

Ahh the Ostrich approach, lets bury our heads in the sand and pretend that there isn't a crisis. My last visit to Portugal appeared to show that they have high unemployment, vast amounts of unsold property and a shortage of inward investment. Much of their economic growth seems to have depended on EU infrastructure investment and retiring North Europeans looking for sunshine. The expansion of the EU eastward results in more deserving cases getting the money, and the Northern Europeans are seeing their investments and pensions fall, such that they can't afford to relocate.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-10 10:12:06 and read 3351 times.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 18):
Ahh the Ostrich approach, lets bury our heads in the sand and pretend that there isn't a crisis. My last visit to Portugal appeared to show that they have high unemployment, vast amounts of unsold property and a shortage of inward investment.

You've just described Portugal in the last 300 years. That description is hardly new.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 18):
Much of their economic growth seems to have depended on EU infrastructure investment and retiring North Europeans looking for sunshine. The expansion of the EU eastward results in more deserving cases getting the money, and the Northern Europeans are seeing their investments and pensions fall, such that they can't afford to relocate.

Nonesense. First, have you ever wondered why the EU wanted to invest in these "periphery" economies? Second, retiring northern europeans aren't even a drop in the GDP bucket.
Here's what a lot of people think is going on, including some very high profile economists: The EU was invented to safeguard the economies of Germany and France and provide them with a market that can be comparable and competitive with that of the US, Japan as well as emerging markets such China, Brazil, India. These economies (Germany, France) need growth to stay strong. So how do they do that? They offer money (via the EU), to the smaller countries for them to spend in major projects such as transportation infrastructure and such. Who has the qualified engineering knowledge and highly specialized and very expensive personel and equipment for these projects? The firms in Germany and France. So the money that came from the "EU" is now re-invested back in France and Germany and thus it fuels their economy. A few years later, new countries are admitted into the EU and the process repeats itself. Rinse, lather and repeat. That's why you have an Euro crisis. Not because the economies of Greece and Portugal are in bad shape but because they're not fueling the economies of Germany and France. That is why when you turn on the news every day, Germany and France are front and center trying to solve the Eurozone economic crisis. Because they are the most affectected.
Without the smaller countries continueing to buy products and services from the major economies which are France and Germany, the Eurozone and those 2 economies will suffer greatly. Unlike the US and China whose market forces are more global, The EU is its own largest economic partner. Intra-EU trade accounts for a huge part of its economy.

To make this a little more aviation related let me throw some more "conspiracy" fuel. Portugal was all set to build a brand new airport partly subsidized by "EU" funds. It was all but confirmed that a German firm would build it and that Aeroports de Paris would run it. That was, until it became known that a Portuguese construction firm was likely to win the project and a couple of Asian firms, including Changi airport management, were also very interested in winning the bid to run the airport. Make of it what you want.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: LOWS
Posted 2012-01-10 10:45:34 and read 3309 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 19):
Here's what a lot of people think is going on, including some very high profile economists: The EU was invented to safeguard the economies of Germany and France and provide them with a market that can be comparable and competitive with that of the US, Japan as well as emerging markets such China, Brazil, India. These economies (Germany, France) need growth to stay strong. So how do they do that? They offer money (via the EU), to the smaller countries for them to spend in major projects such as transportation infrastructure and such. Who has the qualified engineering knowledge and highly specialized and very expensive personel and equipment for these projects? The firms in Germany and France. So the money that came from the "EU" is now re-invested back in France and Germany and thus it fuels their economy. A few years later, new countries are admitted into the EU and the process repeats itself. Rinse, lather and repeat. That's why you have an Euro crisis. Not because the economies of Greece and Portugal are in bad shape but because they're not fueling the economies of Germany and France. That is why when you turn on the news every day, Germany and France are front and center trying to solve the Eurozone economic crisis. Because they are the most affectected.

Leaving aside the small war we had between 1939 and 1945, the emergence of the European Coal and Steel Community (designed to make it impossible for a war between France and Germany), BENELUX, EURATOM and all of the antecedents of the EU, sure that works. It was all a massive conspiracy.

The EU is a community. Every member state benefits economically. If Portugal were to leave, it would take a significant economic hit. It would be like Oregon leaving the US and having to trade with Washington on the same basis as Armenia. It would cost a ton of money and achieve nothing.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-10 12:50:48 and read 3235 times.

Quoting LOWS (Reply 20):
Leaving aside the small war we had between 1939 and 1945, the emergence of the European Coal and Steel Community (designed to make it impossible for a war between France and Germany), BENELUX, EURATOM and all of the antecedents of the EU, sure that works. It was all a massive conspiracy.

And what do all those have in common? An ever expanding economic partnership that needs to keep growing in order to feed itself. It's not a conspiracy. It's an economic model.

Quoting LOWS (Reply 20):
The EU is a community. Every member state benefits economically. If Portugal were to leave, it would take a significant economic hit. It would be like Oregon leaving the US and having to trade with Washington on the same basis as Armenia. It would cost a ton of money and achieve nothing.

Incorrect. Some member states benefit more than others. Yes, if Portugal were to leave, which they won't, they would suffer economically. But comparing a soverign nation like Portugal or Greece with a US state is ludicrous. The EU states are sovereign nations and that will never change.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: Bongodog1964
Posted 2012-01-10 16:08:01 and read 3102 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 19):
Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 18):
Much of their economic growth seems to have depended on EU infrastructure investment and retiring North Europeans looking for sunshine. The expansion of the EU eastward results in more deserving cases getting the money, and the Northern Europeans are seeing their investments and pensions fall, such that they can't afford to relocate.

Nonesense. First, have you ever wondered why the EU wanted to invest in these "periphery" economies? Second, retiring northern europeans aren't even a drop in the GDP bucket.
Here's what a lot of people think is going on, including some very high profile economists: The EU was invented to safeguard the economies of Germany and France and provide them with a market that can be comparable and competitive with that of the US, Japan as well as emerging markets such China, Brazil, India. These economies (Germany, France) need growth to stay strong. So how do they do that? They offer money (via the EU), to the smaller countries for them to spend in major projects such as transportation infrastructure and such. Who has the qualified engineering knowledge and highly specialized and very expensive personel and equipment for these projects? The firms in Germany and France. So the money that came from the "EU" is now re-invested back in France and Germany and thus it fuels their economy. A few years later, new countries are admitted into the EU and the process repeats itself. Rinse, lather and repeat. That's why you have an Euro crisis. Not because the economies of Greece and Portugal are in bad shape but because they're not fueling the economies of Germany and France. That is why when you turn on the news every day, Germany and France are front and center trying to solve the Eurozone economic crisis. Because they are the most affectected.
Without the smaller countries continueing to buy products and services from the major economies which are France and Germany, the Eurozone and those 2 economies will suffer greatly. Unlike the US and China whose market forces are more global, The EU is its own largest economic partner. Intra-EU trade accounts for a huge part of its economy.

To make this a little more aviation related let me throw some more "conspiracy" fuel. Portugal was all set to build a brand new airport partly subsidized by "EU" funds. It was all but confirmed that a German firm would build it and that Aeroports de Paris would run it. That was, until it became known that a Portuguese construction firm was likely to win the project and a couple of Asian firms, including Changi airport management, were also very interested in winning the bid to run the airport. Make of it what you want.

Who do you think were the buyers for all those apartments on the Algarve during the boom years, yes it was the peopel from Northern Europe, when they stopped buying the market collapsed, Much of the EU investment was for infrastructure, even if the contracts were awarded to German or French companys (and many weren't) they still spent much of the money locally on labour and materials.
The main eurozone problem is sovereign debt, whereby the Southern nations can no longer pay the interest on their borrowings.
The EU was primarily a social experiment to stop us fighting each other, and a way of supporting German industrial production and French agriculture.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-11 11:31:43 and read 2885 times.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 22):
Who do you think were the buyers for all those apartments on the Algarve during the boom years, yes it was the peopel from Northern Europe, when they stopped buying the market collapsed

That's a bold statement. Do you have any numbers? There's a LOT more to Portugal than a couple of tourist towns in Algarve. Yes, a lot of Europeans, mostly Brits own vacation homes there but these people are far from being the majority. The real estate market collapsed in Algarve for the same reason that it collapsed in Lisbon, or in Santarem, or anywhere else in the country. Because the country run out of people to buy homes. Portugal has one of the highest rates of home ownership in Europe ahead of countries such as France, Germany, Netherlands, etc.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 22):
The main eurozone problem is sovereign debt, whereby the Southern nations can no longer pay the interest on their borrowings.
The EU was primarily a social experiment to stop us fighting each other, and a way of supporting German industrial production and French agriculture.

This is not the forum to discuss this but a lot of people disagree with you and that is why I will be shocked if TP is sold this year. People are not buying it. They are blaming the EU for the country's debt problem. There was no debt problem before the EU just as the new EU nations don't have a debt problem yet. In a few years they will be burried in debt. Hungary will be next on the chopping block, you watch.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: tff
Posted 2012-01-11 15:10:36 and read 2784 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
That's a bold statement. Do you have any numbers? There's a LOT more to Portugal than a couple of tourist towns in Algarve. Yes, a lot of Europeans, mostly Brits own vacation homes there but these people are far from being the majority. The real estate market collapsed in Algarve for the same reason that it collapsed in Lisbon, or in Santarem, or anywhere else in the country. Because the country run out of people to buy homes. Portugal has one of the highest rates of home ownership in Europe ahead of countries such as France, Germany, Netherlands, etc.

Exactly. And this is because the home leasing market has been paralysed for decades and credit was cheap and easy to get.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
I will be shocked if TP is sold this year.

Although I agree with you, I think the only reason TP might not be sold is if the Government isn't happy with the potential buyers. It's clear that the Government wants LH to step forward, but until now IIRC the ones who have shown an interest in buying TP are BA/IB, QR, AV, JJ and LA.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: LOWS
Posted 2012-01-11 20:52:48 and read 2723 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 21):
The EU states are sovereign nations and that will never change.

Oh, now, I wouldn't be so sure about that.   

Where does sovereignty begin? At what point does the delegation of powers to the EU institutions compromise sovereignty?

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
Hungary will be next on the chopping block, you watch.

Hungary very successfully dug it's own hole and the current government is only making the matters worse.

Topic: RE: TAP Portugal Privatisation
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-01-12 07:11:33 and read 2557 times.

Quoting tff (Reply 24):
Although I agree with you, I think the only reason TP might not be sold is if the Government isn't happy with the potential buyers.

The government would give TP away for free if it was up to them. The unions control TP's privatization and they are putting up a big fight and willing to follow in the footsteps of Swissair. The pilot's union alone owns 20% of the airline and they are entitled to those same 20% after privatization. More importantly, in a public offering the unions can increase their ownership of the airline. Good luck finding a buyer.


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