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Topic: AC 787 Routes
Username: idjim319
Posted 2012-01-14 19:57:02 and read 20921 times.

Just wondering what folks envision with the 787s coming to AC. It seems they will be eager to get rid of old 767s but also wondering if they will strike out with some new routes while keeping the old birds airborne. I'm wondering if JNB may be coming sooner than later.....maybe other routes that the 787 will make possible? Any thoughts what they might do with the 787s in the short order??

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-14 20:06:44 and read 20942 times.

India would be one of the first markets to get into, I would think. BOM and DEL (with a tag on to ATQ maybe) would have a pretty decent load factor year round. Avoiding Russian airspace (if they had to) still makes it only around 7700 miles from YYZ to DEL, well within the economic range of the 787-800.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: 744
Posted 2012-01-14 20:21:33 and read 20864 times.

YES!!! AC needs to start BOM and DEL right away, before EK starts attacking AC silently behind their backs. I non-stop from YYZ to BOM would be awesome!!! It will be a full load and a $$$ making flight to BOM and DEL as it'll be nonostop compared to Emirates/Jet/Air India/Ethiad/Lufthansa/BA etc. Plus I have my Elite Status with AC and would love flying with them non-stop. They should start asap and have good marketing and ad's all over the place, train stations, airports, metro paper, newpapers, bus stops, Indian newpapers, start alliance websites, trave agencies etc. Good Luck AC, my carrier of choice ALWAYS  

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: BA777-236
Posted 2012-01-14 21:18:56 and read 20651 times.

I've always been surprised why AC has not gone to India anytime this last five years or so. I think they did an India route briefly via Switzerland at one point?

Ever since the triples came in I thought a 200LR service direct to India made perfect sense.

Instead AC watches almost every international carrier sphione off traffic from YYZ to India and stays on the sidelines.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-01-14 21:23:30 and read 20638 times.

I am sure that before we see U.L.H. flights, AC will, like NH, start some short domestic hops to train crews, make some marketing, etc. I can see some YYZ-YUL and YYZ-YWG flights initially, and perhaps some YYZ-YVR and YYZ-YYC flights after some weeks or so. Maybe something to ORD or EWR too!

In any event, it will be interesting to see where AC sends the 787s to. In addition to U.L.H. routes such as YYZ-DEL or YYZ-BOM, we might see some flights ex-YVR to secondary Asian destinations. I will speculate SCL and EZE are good candidates for 787 service at some point.

How about JNB? Is there enough market?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: B738FlyUIA
Posted 2012-01-15 04:25:38 and read 20061 times.

Quoting BA777-236 (Reply 3):
I've always been surprised why AC has not gone to India anytime this last five years or so. I think they did an India route briefly via Switzerland at one point?

Yes you are right, they had them at one time... and from ZRH the destination was DEL or BOM !!! Not sure really....

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: fun2fly
Posted 2012-01-15 04:46:53 and read 19992 times.

What is AC's 787 delivery schedule?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: LH7478i
Posted 2012-01-15 06:24:50 and read 19135 times.

How about sending a B787 to SIN from either YVR or YYZ ? A Star Alliance carrier at both ends probably helps to fill the plane.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: mk777
Posted 2012-01-15 06:44:26 and read 18870 times.

Quoting BA777-236 (Reply 3):

I've always been surprised why AC has not gone to India anytime this last five years or so. I think they did an India route briefly via Switzerland at one point?

AC had started DEL-YYZ with their then A345, downgraded it to A343 and then used a 767 via ZRH to DEL before ultimately stopping that route.

AI already flies ATQ-DEL-YYZ, so ideally the 787 should fly to BOM if they don't want competition.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: thenoflyzone
Posted 2012-01-15 06:57:23 and read 18715 times.

YUL-PEK or YUL-NRT. Montreal needs an East Asian non-stop. Demand is there, all that's left is the right aircraft for the job.

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 6):
What is AC's 787 delivery schedule?

Not soon enough. First seven in 2014.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/busin...s+delayed+again/5657292/story.html

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2012-01-15 06:59:20]

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: ManekS
Posted 2012-01-15 07:04:00 and read 18622 times.

Quoting LH7478i (Reply 7):
How about sending a B787 to SIN from either YVR or YYZ ? A Star Alliance carrier at both ends probably helps to fill the plane.

Yes, I think it's time AC connects Canada to South East Asia. There is certainly enough traffic to warrant a minimum of 3 weekly flights, and with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India in the vicinity, filling daily flights shouldn't be a problem. The 788 doesn't have the legs to do YYZ-SIN but I think it just might be able to scrape YVR-SIN.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-15 07:09:48 and read 18533 times.

AC started service to India in in the early 1980s with YVR/YYZ-LHR-BOM-SIN, using L1011-500 and B747-200C aircraft. AC had/has fifth freedom rights along all stops of this route. This was reduced to YYZ-LHR-BOM, then ultimately cancelled.

Quoting mk777 (Reply 8):
AC had started DEL-YYZ with their then A345, downgraded it to A343

It was the other way around. The YYZ-DEL route started using the A343, which was not ideal on the route, and occasionally had to stop for fuel. With the delivery of the A345, the route was always non-stop, but it was thought it better to use the aircraft on the higher yielding YYZ-HKG.

As you state, before canceling the route altogether, it was routed through ZRH, using a B767-300 and code-sharing with LX.(which was the intent of routing it through ZRH) It was not a good passenger mix, as the low yield YYZ-DEL passengers booked seats before the high yielding YYZ-ZRH passengers. Some "political" editorials emerged when AC and LX tried to restrict the YYZ-DEL passengers, leaving seats open for YYZ-ZRH and ZRH-DEL passengers!

While India has been mentioned to be on the "short list" with the eventual delivery of the B787, a lot of people have their doubts, as even with the long range, the capacity of the B787 is still too low. The B777 seems ideal for non-stops to India, but present fares dictate the aircraft be better used on higher yielding routes.

Internally, the routes mentioned initially are YYZ-YUL, YYZ-LAX, YYZ-YVR, YYZ-YYC. This is for flight crew and maintenance training. Then when reliability of the aircraft is ensured, the first International routes mentioned are YYZ-NRT, and some Western Arrow flights. (YVR/YEG/YYC to Europe) In other words, no new routes will be blazed until a lot of B767/A330 routes are replaced.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-15 07:30:42 and read 18233 times.

Quoting 744 (Reply 2):
I non-stop from YYZ to BOM would be awesome!!! It will be a full load and a $$$ making flight to BOM and DEL

Not so much - yields are too low.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 11):
even with the long range, the capacity of the B787 is still too low. The B777 seems ideal for non-stops to India, but present fares dictate the aircraft be better used on higher yielding routes.

A daily non-stop would require at least 3 aircraft. I just can't see AC dedicating 3 new "premium" aircraft to a low yield route.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-15 07:40:16 and read 18094 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 12):
A daily non-stop would require at least 3 aircraft. I just can't see AC dedicating 3 new "premium" aircraft to a low yield route.

Exactly. And AC has left the other carriers to fight over this low yield traffic. At the same time ... a B777 flights to South America carrying 45t of freight! It is also why I can't envision the B787 to India any time soon either.

Remember, the Canada-India traffic is very price conscious. They don't mind connecting along the way, to save a few hundred dollars. A non-stop is not necessary.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: yeogeo
Posted 2012-01-15 07:58:49 and read 17825 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 1):
India would be one of the first markets to get into, I would think. BOM and DEL (with a tag on to ATQ maybe) would have a pretty decent load factor year round. Avoiding Russian airspace (if they had to)...

I'm curious, why do you feel they would they have to (circumvent Russian airspace)?

Quoting 744 (Reply 2):
AC needs to start BOM and DEL right away, before EK starts attacking AC silently behind their backs.

Too late! They're already "attacking" out loud and right in front of them  
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 4):
I can see some YYZ-YUL and YYZ-YWG flights initially... Maybe something to ORD

Not that I wouldn't like to see it, but I doubt ORD would be feasible - have you seen the "E" gates AC uses in O'Hare?
I don't believe I've ever seen anything larger than an E175 (do they ever fly the smaller Airbus into O'Hare?), and certainly not a wide-body unless they made special arrangements to use B or C gates.

yeo

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: thenoflyzone
Posted 2012-01-15 08:03:03 and read 17772 times.

Sorry, but i don't see the 787 on too many ULH routes (11,000 km +). Not enough seats on board to pay for the flight, even with Boeing's claim that it is 20% more fuel efficient than the 767 (yet to be proven).

YYZ-India or YVR-SIN will not happen, in my opinion.

i believe AC will mostly use the 787 on route segments under 8-9,000 km, just as it does with the 767s today.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2012-01-15 08:04:05]

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: kiwinlondon
Posted 2012-01-15 08:06:49 and read 17710 times.

How about YYZ-AKL-SYD/MEL/BNE

Not sure if it would have the legs for YYZ-AKL though. Does anyone know?

Kiwinlondon

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2012-01-15 08:08:17 and read 17671 times.

The 787 is perfect for year round service to destinations such as:

DUB
MAN
GLA
EDI
BRU

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: thenoflyzone
Posted 2012-01-15 08:09:01 and read 17670 times.

Quoting kiwinlondon (Reply 16):
Not sure if it would have the legs for AKL though. Does anyone know?

13,867 km. Without the headwinds. in other words, aint gonna happen!

YYZ-AKL is 77L territory.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2012-01-15 08:22:42]

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Boeing744
Posted 2012-01-15 08:16:02 and read 17536 times.

I hope that YOW will get some early training flights from YYZ. They already put the 767 on this route sometimes, so it wouldn't be out of the question (like YUL). After that I would love to see it serve YOW's two European routes to LHR and FRA.

Slightly off-topic, but does anyone know what the interior configuration of AC's 787s will be? Will the seats be the same as currently on the 767?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: LXSWISS
Posted 2012-01-15 08:29:07 and read 17367 times.

AC should must add these routes :

YYZ-BOM / DEL
YVR-BOM / DEL

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: aircanada014
Posted 2012-01-15 08:43:54 and read 17142 times.

Maybe to Beirut? how about Cairo, Casablanca or even to IST or Nairobi? Russia maybe

thats my wish list.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: JAGflyer
Posted 2012-01-15 08:48:59 and read 17055 times.

YYZ has a much larger concentration of Indian people than Surrey and BC combined. AC can do a very smooth connection from YVR to YYZ and onto BOM/DEL. As mentioned, the Indian demographic is very price-conscious and will easily spend an extra 5 hours in transit to save $100-200 a head. A market AC has never touched would be the Middle East (except for TLV). The market in YYZ/YUL for central Africa is huge, but once again, price-conscious.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-01-15 08:58:27 and read 16888 times.

Any idea what the proposed seating arrangement is for AC's 788's?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-01-15 09:01:12 and read 16854 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 13):
At the same time ... a B777 flights to South America carrying 45t of freight!

For this sort of load density it must be fruit and vegetables northbound !

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: LH7478i
Posted 2012-01-15 09:06:12 and read 17216 times.

Even though I think those routes are not very likely I'll just throw them in :

How about oil routes ? Is there any demand for YYC - DME or YYC - DXB / AUH / KWI , or maybe down to CCS ? I could imagine that managers and engineers would buy expensive Y and J tickets and make those long flights profitable with the economics of a 788. On the other hand, I don't think there is leisure traffic at all.

What are your thoughts ?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-01-15 09:11:46 and read 17116 times.

BOM-YYZ is pushing 7500nm ESAD which is clearly 77L territory.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-15 09:16:16 and read 17483 times.

Quoting LH7478i (Reply 25):
What are your thoughts ?

That is the fun of these exercises, we get to play "airline" and where we would fly our B787s.

One thing I always remember though, is that because AC is allied with LH and UA, they pretty well know exactly how many people want to fly from just about everywhere to just about everywhere. Also, they can predict what people are willing to pay, and how "inconvenienced" they are willing to go, to save money.

Take your proposed YYC-CCS for example. Makes sense .. two oil centres. Right now, AC and (in this case) UA, know exactly how many people every day request that route. If demand warrants, there will be a flight.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-15 09:19:19 and read 17434 times.

Quoting JAGflyer (Reply 22):
YYZ has a much larger concentration of Indian people than Surrey and BC combined. AC can do a very smooth connection from YVR to YYZ and onto BOM/DEL. As mentioned, the Indian demographic is very price-conscious and will easily spend an extra 5 hours in transit to save $100-200 a head.

Adding YVR wouldn't change anything. It's the yield, not the load factor that doesn't make it viable (at least compared to other more profitable routes). BTW, I believe Surrey is in B.C.

Quoting JAGflyer (Reply 22):
A market AC has never touched would be the Middle East (except for TLV). The market in YYZ/YUL for central Africa is huge, but once again, price-conscious.

Exactly - low yields. AC is running a very successful YYZ/YUL-BRU route that connects with SN's Africa routes - which AC could never hope to emulate.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: danimarroquin
Posted 2012-01-15 09:36:53 and read 17167 times.

YYZ - BOG - YYZ , in order to take adavantange of the 787's perfomance with the high altitude of Bogota

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: JAGflyer
Posted 2012-01-15 10:02:35 and read 16846 times.

Are the South American routes (BOG, EZE, SCL, and LIM) really that high performing for AC? I can see the cargo flowing off these flights like crazy (it's very interesting to see what comes off different planes when you drive around airside at an airport). I didn't realize the amount of ex-pats from South America that could fill these flights. It is very possible the pax load can be low but AC can still make a killing on cargo.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2012-01-15 10:33:10 and read 16368 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 24):
Quoting longhauler (Reply 13):At the same time ... a B777 flights to South America carrying 45t of freight!
For this sort of load density it must be fruit and vegetables northbound !

You see the "fruits" of AC's direct service to SA points during the winter months. Fresh raspberries, blueberries, etc. are all cheaper than ever during winter months in grocery stores as a direct result of the cargo traffic coming back from South America. A small basket of raspberries in off season would be $5 and now you see 2 $5 routinely.

I agree that there is not enough premium passengers to make BOM or DEL work in the immediate future from YYZ and even less from YVR. You need a large volume of business traffic to make those routes work. Also a significant amount of cargo revenue that is either fresh product, or high value enough, or just in time delivery, to warrant not routing via cheaper methods

I would definitely see the 787 flying to high cargo markets that will benefit from the increased belly cargo over the 763 but without the passenger volume to fill a 777. If anything, I would see 763's redeployed to open new markets once the initial 763's that need replacing are retired. A lot also will depend on whether the LCC long haul carrier takes off or not.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Coronado
Posted 2012-01-15 10:50:19 and read 16141 times.

Where once I thought I would get to see 787's on new long thin routes, I am afraid that If oil stays at the 100/barrel range, I expect the smart airlines who have 787's on order will simply put them on current 767 routes, and accelerate the retirement of 767's and try and try and run a margin premium compared to airlines flying older equipment.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: SLCUT2777
Posted 2012-01-15 11:04:40 and read 15946 times.

Quoting Coronado (Reply 32):
Where once I thought I would get to see 787's on new long thin routes, I am afraid that If oil stays at the 100/barrel range, I expect the smart airlines who have 787's on order will simply put them on current 767 routes, and accelerate the retirement of 767's and try and try and run a margin premium compared to airlines flying older equipment.

I think AC will do this up to a point, but then they might try to break new ground particularly out of YYZ and YVR. I particularly could see them doing YVR to SIN, CGK,SGN or BKK or other southeast Asian routes out of YVR that other North American operators (think DL from LAX) might want to try.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-15 11:12:20 and read 15837 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 1):
India would be one of the first markets to get into, I would think. BOM and DEL (with a tag on to ATQ maybe)

"Tags", especially on a domestic sector where no local traffic can be sold, are almost always a guarantee of unprofitability. It will never happen.

Quoting 744 (Reply 2):
AC needs to start BOM and DEL right away, before EK starts attacking AC silently behind their backs. I non-stop from YYZ to BOM would be awesome
Quoting BA777-236 (Reply 3):
Ever since the triples came in I thought a 200LR service direct to India made perfect sense.

A waste of aircraft in my opinion to put such expensive assets on a route with virtually no high-yield traffic and where the rest of the traffic is among the most price-sensitive and will gladly accept en route stops and connections to obtain the lowest fare. There are far more lucrative routes than India. Leave that market to EK/EY/QR and connections with alliance partners via Europe.

Quoting BA777-236 (Reply 3):
Instead AC watches almost every international carrier sphione off traffic from YYZ to India and stays on the sidelines.

As mentioned above, some markets don't warrant service when the yield doesn't cover your costs, regardless how much demand there is. It's very difficult to generate profitable yields on routes like India with almost no premium traffic.

Quoting B738FlyUIA (Reply 5):
Quoting BA777-236 (Reply 3):
I've always been surprised why AC has not gone to India anytime this last five years or so. I think they did an India route briefly via Switzerland at one point?

Personally, I doubt India is very high up the list of potential new markets when you consider how much competition there is via both the Atlantic and Pacific. Fighting for a share of that market just isn't worth it in my opinion when there are far more lucrative markets available.

Yes you are right, they had them at one time... and from ZRH the destination was DEL or BOM !!! Not sure really....

It was DEL, by far the major Canada-India market.

Quoting LH7478i (Reply 7):
How about sending a B787 to SIN from either YVR or YYZ ? A Star Alliance carrier at both ends probably helps to fill the plane.
Quoting ManekS (Reply 10):
Quoting LH7478i (Reply 7):
How about sending a B787 to SIN from either YVR or YYZ ? A Star Alliance carrier at both ends probably helps to fill the plane.

Yes, I think it's time AC connects Canada to South East Asia. There is certainly enough traffic to warrant a minimum of 3 weekly flights, and with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India in the vicinity, filling daily flights shouldn't be a problem.

I disagree. Canada-SIN is a very small market and SIN is too far south to make it a good connecting hub to almost anywhere except a few small markets like Malaysia and Indonesia. Just look at the trouble SQ had when they served Canada. By far the majority of passengers on SQ flights were on the 5th freedom YVR-ICN sector at low yield fares (as usual for 5th freeedom routes). All of those markets South East Asia markets are almost as dependent on low-yield traffic as India. I doubt any of them will see AC service anytime soon. When CP served BKK as a tag-on from HKG, it was among the least profitable and lowest-yield markets in their entire network, and almost all the traffic on the flight was heavily discounted 5th freedom traffic HKG-BKK. Again, assigning expensive assets like new 787s to a market like that with virtually no premium traffic would make no sense.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: motorhussy
Posted 2012-01-15 13:10:30 and read 14463 times.

YVR-MEL would be the obvious route to me. Maybe a South American route from Vancouver, possibly YVR-SCL-EZE. YYZ-JNB, YYZ-SVO? Obviously the two biggest Indian cities. Another China destination from YVR, CAN?

Regards
MH

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Acey
Posted 2012-01-15 13:10:50 and read 14472 times.

Maybe it will end up on routes like YVR-LHR, YUL-LHR, YVR-PVG, and others. Any would be a better guess than YYZ-DEL or BOM.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: caribb
Posted 2012-01-15 13:23:14 and read 14288 times.

Since they are being bought to replace the 767s and A330s I personally think in the first few years you will see just that.. after the proving on short haul routes (YUL and others) they will start to replace the 767s and some A330s all over the board. They will eventually be serving routes out of all the Canadian hubs they have.. then once broken in after a year of two they will start to open up new routes to new regions. So places like Brussels, Geneva, London, Paris, Frankfurt and Rome will likely see them before Delhi or Singapore or Accra. More likely the concentration will be on long haul domestic routes and Europe first out of YUL. Probably also to South America from Posted 2012-01-15 13:42:32 and read 14023 times.

Quoting caribb (Reply 37):
Since they are being bought to replace the 767s and A330s I personally think in the first few years you will see just that.. after the proving on short haul routes (YUL and others) they will start to replace the 767s and some A330s all over the board. They will eventually be serving routes out of all the Canadian hubs they have.. then once broken in after a year of two they will start to open up new routes to new regions. So places like Brussels, Geneva, London, Paris, Frankfurt and Rome will likely see them before Delhi or Singapore or Accra. More likely the concentration will be on long haul domestic routes and Europe first out of YUL. Probably also to South America from Edit Post ]

Sorry.. stupid edit option was cut off.. Probably also to South America from Toronto and to the Caribbean during the winter
months. My guess is they will replace 767 routes first unless replacing some A330s can free them up for expansion but I would think the objective would be to get rid of the more costly older planes, increase margins on their routes and get familiarized with the new aircraft first then start to expand into new markets a good year or more down the road.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: brilondon
Posted 2012-01-15 13:51:47 and read 13933 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 27):
That is the fun of these exercises, we get to play "airline" and where we would fly our B787s.

I will play too. I would love to see AC fly their 787's to HNL and OGG to replace the beautiful yet somewhat worn 767's they presently are flying to Hawaii. I know that this is not a glamour or highly profitable route but I fly it very often and would like to see it come about. They are going to replace the 767's eventually and the 787 would be nice to see in Hawaii.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: mainMAN
Posted 2012-01-15 14:07:14 and read 13759 times.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 17):

The 787 is perfect for year round service to destinations such as:

DUB
MAN
GLA
EDI
BRU

Certainly hoping that the 787 improves the economics of YYZ - MAN (or even YVR).

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: zbbylw
Posted 2012-01-15 14:15:36 and read 13677 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 39):
replace the beautiful yet somewhat worn 767's they presently are flying to Hawaii

Funny enough is they bought some planes recently from Hawaiian that they use on the "Sun Destinations" mainly OGG, HNL, CUN from the west. These planes are really new (around 2003 and 2005 I believe).

I think that the first order of business after the "integration" time where they will usually stay on the shorter flights (LAX, YUL, YVR etc) would be on some of the longer flights which are a little tight for the 767. TLV, PVG (from YVR), SCL/EZE may be some of the first routes that they will take over from the 767. Right now they only have enough airplanes to cover a roughly 1:1 replacement but if the 330's stay on for a while you could see some minor expansions. Perhaps a YVR-MEL, YYZ-BEY or a YYZ-YVR-CAN comes to mind.

There are lots of markets AC could fill seats on. The major problem is revenue. Flying to DEL would probably not work out of Canada. Perhaps a LHR-DEL where they could funnel traffic from all of their flights outwards from LHR may make it more feasible but it's easier just to get those passengers on LH though MUC or FRA.

It will be interesting to see what happens, I think there will be one or two new routes that could become profitable and they may try out, but it won't open the doors on 20 new routes unfortunately.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2012-01-15 14:54:39 and read 13211 times.

Agree with the guys who say no fancy new routes.

Quoting Coronado (Reply 32):
Where once I thought I would get to see 787's on new long thin routes, I am afraid that If oil stays at the 100/barrel range, I expect the smart airlines who have 787's on order will simply put them on current 767 routes, and accelerate the retirement of 767's and try and try and run a margin premium compared to airlines flying older equipment.

   I can see them being exactly what they are - 767 replacements, so once the domestic crew training etc is done I can certainly see YVR to PVG, PEK, ICN & NRT being some of the first routes they will fly on, along with YYZ to Europe, South America & TLV. The only new routes I can see ex YVR is possibly China. CAN was a good option, but CZ finally started it 3/weekly so they missed that boat IMO. SZX is a possibility, maybe Chengdu. Ex YYZ, think they are quite happy using LH through FRA to Europe, could see some South American growth, particularly Brazil. I think western Canada to Europe will remain/switch to A330 while 767's leave.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: threepoint
Posted 2012-01-15 16:16:36 and read 12551 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 42):
The only new routes I can see ex YVR is possibly China.

And perhaps MEL. Or what about HND to complement (or replace?) NRT?

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 42):
I think western Canada to Europe will remain/switch to A330 while 767's leave.

Are there any 767s flying to/from Europe from YVR, YYC or YEG? I thought it's exclusively 333s (or 77Ws in high season).

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 35):
Obviously the two biggest Indian cities.

Except that the consensus of just about every previous poster is that it does not make economic sense to serve India over a host of better-yielding routes.

Quoting zbbylw (Reply 41):
YYZ-BEY

If - a very large 'if' - AC introduces Beirut, it would almost certainly be from YUL.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-15 16:35:30 and read 12372 times.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 43):
Are there any 767s flying to/from Europe from YVR, YYC or YEG?

YYC-FRA and YEG-LHR are currently 763s.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: thenoflyzone
Posted 2012-01-15 16:40:48 and read 12377 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 42):
I think western Canada to Europe will remain/switch to A330 while 767's leave.

Doubt that very much. A333 pilot base is only in YYZ.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 43):
Are there any 767s flying to/from Europe from YVR, YYC or YEG? I thought it's exclusively 333s (or 77Ws in high season).

YEG-LHR is a 763. So is YYC-FRA right now, but that will switch to an A333 when LH pulls out of YYC in a few weeks.

Thenoflyzone

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-15 16:57:13 and read 12212 times.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 45):
Doubt that very much. A333 pilot base is only in YYZ.

And YVR.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: multimark
Posted 2012-01-15 17:18:09 and read 12006 times.

A lot will depend on whether AC convinces its unions to form a LCC leisure subsidiary using its old 767's. If so, look for those to continue serving HI until the wings fall off!

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: AF086
Posted 2012-01-15 17:29:42 and read 11874 times.

Perhaps with the 787 AC could finally introduce GIG. It's a fast growing market with strong business ties with Canada specially in the mining and energy sectors.

Brazil and Canada have an openskies treaty so frequencies are not an issue.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-15 17:43:54 and read 11694 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 42):
The only new routes I can see ex YVR is possibly China. CAN was a good option, but CZ finally started it 3/weekly so they missed that boat IMO. SZX is a possibility, maybe Chengdu.

Considering the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the huge increase in the middle class population who can now afford foreign travel, I think it's almost certain that service to Canada is going to increase massively over the next few years. Even a 1% increase in the number of Chinese who can afford to travel is more than 1/3 of the entire population of Canada. PEK is now the world's 2nd busiest airport after ATL.

Look at the car industry. China has been the world's largest car market since 2009, well ahead of the U.S. Won't be long before that's also true for air travel.
http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/c...illion-in-2012-20120110-1psqp.html

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2012-01-15 17:58:12 and read 11521 times.

I see the 787s flying the seasonal 767 routes today. These are the least risky growth plans that AC have.

After this, I see them focusing on UK and Western European routes, especially AirTransat destinations into Toronto, including Manchester, Glasgow, etc.

Either this, or the 787 will free up 767s to do the same. These routes would suit a leisure style operation.

Quoting multimark (Reply 47):
until the wings fall off!

well put.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: krisyyz
Posted 2012-01-15 18:32:36 and read 11199 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 11):
As you state, before canceling the route altogether, it was routed through ZRH, using a B767-300 and code-sharing with LX.(which was the intent of routing it through ZRH) It was not a good passenger mix, as the low yield YYZ-DEL passengers booked seats before the high yielding YYZ-ZRH passengers. Some "political" editorials emerged when AC and LX tried to restrict the YYZ-DEL passengers, leaving seats open for YYZ-ZRH and ZRH-DEL passengers!

That's what I heard as well from an in-charge. They also said that some J class frequent flyers even threatened to stop flying with AC if they didn't' separate the ZRH and DEL flights.

If the economy in Europe picks up, AC should look at some direct flight to Eastern-Central Europe. YYZ lost flight to PRG and BUD in the last few years. AC could start direct flights to ZAG, BEG, PRG or BUD especially during the summer months when VFR travel is high. Either with 787s to "match" LO's YYZ-WAW ops or with the freed up 763s.

KrisYYZ

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2012-01-15 19:15:11 and read 10702 times.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 45):
Doubt that very much. A333 pilot base is only in YYZ.

Why not? Doesnt hinder A330 ops from the west now - as 767's leave, they could use more 333's on transcons if crew availability from their YVR crew base is an issue - and we're only talking about one additional route.
Quoting multimark (Reply 47):
A lot will depend on whether AC convinces its unions to form a LCC leisure subsidiary using its old 767's. If so, look for those to continue serving HI until the wings fall off!

This is going to be key in what happens to the 767's. If they really do take on TS to Europe as well as Caribbean / Mexico, that would reduce growth options to Europe for mainline, which enforces my belief still further the 787's will be used to replace 767's on current routes, starting with key markets like Asia, Star hubs, plus LHR & TLV ex YYZ. HI is a given for the LCC, and by the time the wings fall off the full compliment of 787's should be online to finally replace them.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 49):
Considering the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the huge increase in the middle class population who can now afford foreign travel, I think it's almost certain that service to Canada is going to increase massively over the next few years

Agree, which is why I say I see China as one of the few growth areas, but I dont see "exploding growth" to every semi major airport in the short term - the next 2-3 years when the first 787's will arrive - but within 5+ years, I could certainly see competition to CAN eventually as this is a huge growth area, plus SZX, CTU, XMN & TSN all as potential examples amongst others. Of course, it will also depend where all these new A330's, 747-8I's & A380's being order by China are going to be deployed. Rumors are Sichuan/Hainan/Hong Kong AL have YVR on their radar as an early destination, as do Skymark from Japan with their A380's. Somehow AC seem to snooze and lose, so chances are they could lose these opportunities, like they did to CAN at the present time by allowing CZ to get in first. That being said, I dont feel the 787 is the be all and end all to making these routes work and chances are they could still start them off with the 767 to get in there while the going is good. We regard the 767's as old - and some are - but some are still relatively new & efficient.
Quoting AF086 (Reply 48):
Perhaps with the 787 AC could finally introduce GIG. It's a fast growing market with strong business ties with Canada specially in the mining and energy sectors.

Brazil and Canada have an openskies treaty so frequencies are not an issue.

Exactly, which is why I mentioned South America, particularly Brazil, being one of the few "new" growth areas ex YYZ the 787 could facilitate. However, a BIG plus in using the 77W is cargo, man, those machines are amazing, but there is still not enough capacity as cargo is huge to this continent. Any supplementary service by a 787 to GIG or anywhere else would be welcome just for cargo capacity IMO.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2012-01-15 19:24:38 and read 10580 times.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 51):
AC could start direct flights to ZAG, BEG, PRG or BUD especially during the summer months when VFR travel is high.

AC need to find year round usage for the aircraft.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: GregsterYUL
Posted 2012-01-15 19:37:37 and read 10480 times.

I'm hoping for a 3-4x weekly YUL-PEK

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: brilondon
Posted 2012-01-15 20:14:35 and read 10247 times.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 53):
AC need to find year round usage for the aircraft.



I am sure that they will, maybe some of the seasonal destinations will get to be year round service with the economics that the 787 will provide.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: bestwestern
Posted 2012-01-15 20:57:29 and read 10135 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 55):
maybe some of the seasonal destinations will get to be year round service with the economics that the 787 will provide.

Exactly what I'm thinking. These routes have proven demand for six months of the year, and with an improved cabin, '787 factor', cheaper operating costs alongside some clever marketing, could be successful.

This is a far less risky approach than operating ULH Indian flights that many other carriers havent succeed with from the US.

A West coast Europe daily allows for a short haul trans-border or a pairing with a longer European route. For example a 21:45 YYZ DUB arrives back in YYZ at 13:05.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: ManekS
Posted 2012-01-15 21:24:28 and read 10127 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 34):
I disagree. Canada-SIN is a very small market and SIN is too far south to make it a good connecting hub to almost anywhere except a few small markets like Malaysia and Indonesia. Just look at the trouble SQ had when they served Canada. By far the majority of passengers on SQ flights were on the 5th freedom YVR-ICN sector at low yield fares (as usual for 5th freeedom routes). All of those markets South East Asia markets are almost as dependent on low-yield traffic as India. I doubt any of them will see AC service anytime soon. When CP served BKK as a tag-on from HKG, it was among the least profitable and lowest-yield markets in their entire network, and almost all the traffic on the flight was heavily discounted 5th freedom traffic HKG-BKK. Again, assigning expensive assets like new 787s to a market like that with virtually no premium traffic would make no sense.

Canadians visiting Singapore: 83,000 (227 passengers a day)
http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca...our.aspx?lang=eng&menu_id=9&view=d

Canadians visiting Thailand: 170,000 (465 passengers a day)
http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca...and-thailande.aspx?lang=eng&view=d

Canadians visiting Indonesia: 40,000 (109 passengers a day)
http://www.indonesia-ottawa.org/bila...ns/#indonesia_–_canada_relations

Canadians visiting Malaysia: 91,000 (249 passengers a day)
http://www.malaysia.com/news/2011/04...an-invasion-no-just-more-tourists/

Total: 1050 passengers a day. Note: This figure only constitutes Canadian tourists. Tourists to Canada from nationals of the South East Asian countries, expatriates, students, and business customers, have not been included.

Theoretically, if Air Canada were to serve all passengers flying between these countries and Canada, they could fill 5 daily 787's. Singapore's O&D alone is enough to fill 3 weekly flights, as I mentioned in my original post.

As to why SIA failed on the YVR route: SQ offered a one stop option to Vancouver via Seoul. For passengers based in SIN, it made little sense to pay 25-30% more for a flight on SQ when airlines like CX, JL, and PR (not to mention the countless European carriers) could offer one stop options at a significantly cheaper fares.

In fact, I chose CX for my trip to YYZ in the summer of 2008. It was evident CX remain a popular choice for SIN-Canada passengers. I counted no less than 35 individuals on my SIN-HKG flight making the transit in Hong Kong, and joining the HKG-YYZ flight. Now, if there were a nonstop option available, then the dynamics of the market would change drastically, as many passengers would be willing to pay a premium for the convenience of a direct flight.

Therefore, I believe the notion that there isn't enough traffic to justify a 787 service to Singapore is a common but misinformed thesis. I do hope AC give this rapidly expanding region a whirl before they're too late to the party.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: AirCanada787
Posted 2012-01-15 22:18:11 and read 10035 times.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 56):
Quoting brilondon (Reply 55):
maybe some of the seasonal destinations will get to be year round service with the economics that the 787 will provide.

Exactly what I'm thinking. These routes have proven demand for six months of the year, and with an improved cabin, '787 factor', cheaper operating costs alongside some clever marketing, could be successful.

One thing we have to keep in mind however is:

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 23):

Any idea what the proposed seating arrangement is for AC's 788's?

How will the aircraft be configured? AC has 3 767 without Executive First which are used on a number of the seasonal routes such as Athens, Barcelona, Dublin and Madrid. Instead they offer economy and 'Comfort Plus' which gets you a bigger seat and a lot more legroom but otherwise economy service. Will Air Canada keep a small number of differently configured aircraft to fly to just a few destinations or will they keep using the current 767's to those destinations as long as possible. Or will they decided to offer Executive First service to those destinations. Alot of those questions can only be answered when the issue of a new LCC is settled since I would assume that if the LCC is set up for international flying the current seasonal destinations might be some of the first to transfer to it since it has been noted on here that they they offer Comfort Plus instead of Executive class due to the destinations having lower yields.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: aircanada014
Posted 2012-01-16 03:04:43 and read 9828 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 57):
As to why SIA failed on the YVR route: SQ offered a one stop option to Vancouver via Seoul.

If I recall the reason why SQ pulled out of Vancouver because they were only offered 3 x weekly service and they want daily and Canada wouldn't grant them daily. Now that SQ is with Star Alliance I can't see why not let them have daily service and AC to codeshare the flight.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: jamincan
Posted 2012-01-16 06:14:20 and read 9566 times.

SQ was in Star Alliance when they pulled out.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-16 07:23:08 and read 9473 times.

Quoting aircanada014 (Reply 59):
If I recall the reason why SQ pulled out of Vancouver because they were only offered 3 x weekly service and they want daily and Canada wouldn't grant them daily. Now that SQ is with Star Alliance I can't see why not let them have daily service and AC to codeshare the flight.

SQ, or rather, the country of Singapore has unlimited access to Canada. They can designate any airline they want, and likely SQ would be the one.

However, SQ did not want daily service to Canada, they wanted unlimited Fifth Freedom rights from other countries to Canada. This was denied.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: yowza
Posted 2012-01-16 08:37:14 and read 9316 times.

Quoting AF086 (Reply 48):
Brazil and Canada have an openskies treaty so frequencies are not an issue.

Hate to nit pick but it is in fact open skies-like not truly open skies. Still I'm sure getting permissions would be simple.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 57):
Theoretically, if Air Canada were to serve all passengers flying between these countries and Canada, they could fill 5 daily 787's. Singapore's O&D alone is enough to fill 3 weekly flights, as I mentioned in my original post.

While there may, on paper, be enough traffic to fill 5 787s the reality is that this means little to nothing. There are many many, cheap and effective one stop options to SIN, CGK, BKK, KUL from Canada. You yourself go on to state that one of the reasons SQ pulled out of Canada was their were being undercut. Would this same issue not be a threat to any SIN service by AC?

YOWza

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-16 17:43:28 and read 8867 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 57):
Theoretically, if Air Canada were to serve all passengers flying between these countries and Canada, they could fill 5 daily 787's. Singapore's O&D alone is enough to fill 3 weekly flights, as I mentioned in my original post.

But with all the competition AC faces to SIN via virtually every other country in Asia, not to mention the USA, they will never carry all the O&D traffic. And from the east coast, it's not much further via Europe, with many other carriers able to offer one-stop service.

I still think SIN would be very far down AC's list of potential 787 markets. China and Latin America are probably close to the top of the list, in addition to replacement of 763s in many Europe markets.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-01-16 21:13:31 and read 8630 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 27):
Take your proposed YYC-CCS for example. Makes sense .. two oil centres. Right now, AC and (in this case) UA, know exactly how many people every day request that route. If demand warrants, there will be a flight.

Enjoyed you post. However, the one thing the *A members do not know is how much a direct connection will stimulate a route. For that, much is a guess. I personally have been surprised by the 'upside potential' of more long haul direct connections. I theorize that it allows more families to 'stay home' and the traveling parent to 'seize travel job opportunities' they otherwise wouldn't.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 52):
which is why I mentioned South America, particularly Brazil, being one of the few "new" growth areas ex YYZ the 787 could facilitate.

It will be interesting to see how much growth the 787 provides by fragmenting the market. I suspect the other big growth will be thinner routes to Asia.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-01-17 06:39:06 and read 8337 times.

Interesting to look at PIANO X outputs for the 788. At about early weights, 251-passenger layout and 8t of cargo max range is ~6300nm. When the type gets down to planned post LN90 weights this range will increase to about 7000nm or to 251 passengers and 13t of cargo at 6300nm.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: WildcatYXU
Posted 2012-01-17 08:34:56 and read 8187 times.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 51):
AC could start direct flights to ZAG, BEG, PRG or BUD especially during the summer months when VFR travel is high.



I can see BUD as viable route, perhaps even a year round 788. It's very close to "home" for many of us. I'm not sure about BEG or ZAG, perhaps it would work as seasonal with one of the "Three Amigos" . PRG is IMO too far west for travelers who would take ground transportation to their final destination and it's a Sky team hub. So no reasonable transfers there.
That said, if LO indeed introduces Y+ on their 788's, KRK via WAW on LO would be my first choice.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-01-17 09:29:23 and read 8113 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 57):
Canadians visiting Singapore: 83,000 (227 passengers a day)
http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca...our.aspx?lang=eng&menu_id=9&view=d

Canadians visiting Thailand: 170,000 (465 passengers a day)
http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca...and-thailande.aspx?lang=eng&view=d

Canadians visiting Indonesia: 40,000 (109 passengers a day)
http://www.indonesia-ottawa.org/bila...ns/#indonesia_–_canada_relations

Canadians visiting Malaysia: 91,000 (249 passengers a day)
http://www.malaysia.com/news/2011/04...ists/

I missed this data. Thank you. It shows that Canada to Singapore, Thailand, and Malasia are quite possible. The issue will be 787 range or the miss on promise.  

However, you have done an excellent job of proposing future 787 routes.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 57):
For passengers based in SIN, it made little sense to pay 25-30% more for a flight on SQ when airlines like CX, JL, and PR (not to mention the countless European carriers) could offer one stop options at a significantly cheaper fares

   However, for AC to truely compete, they would require a non-stop SIN-Canada (mostly likely YVR).

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: bmacleod
Posted 2012-01-17 09:31:05 and read 8114 times.

YHZ only has one AC TATL (Trans Atlantic) routing; YHZ-LHR. However given Halifax increasing traffic to Europe I wouldn't be surprised to see YHZ-FRA start up in a few years using 787s.....

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-17 10:38:09 and read 8022 times.

Some here talk about AC serving India as a static situation. Yes, it didn't work in the past. Some of the blame falls on low yielding traffic. But some of the blame should fall on AC's half-hearted effort at serving the sub-continent.

Also, when talking about yields and places to service in India, there seems to be a misalignment. Sure, most Indo-Canadians are north Indians which means AC can fill more seats servicing DEL. However, BOM, by a long shot, is India's commercial hub, far more likely to generate higher yielding traffic. BOM pumps out 25% of India's industrial output, 70% of its capital transactions, 14% of all income taxes in the country and 37% of all corporate taxes in the country. Imagine, New York, LA and Chicago combined into one city. That's what BOM is to India.

This presents two very distinct choices. Higher loads from DEL or probably higher yields from BOM. In my opinion, AC has simply been chasing the wrong option. Push BOM and the yields and loads will follow.

Generally speaking when it comes to India, AC would simply be foolish not to take a chance here and put in a serious effort. The second largest population on the planet. An economy growing 2-3 times as fast as Canada's. The second largest diaspora in Canada, with increasingly growing commercial ties to the motherland. This is not the same situation that AC faced in the 90s or 2000s.

I have a feeling though that AC and a bunch of other Star Alliance carriers are waiting to see which airline emerges in India as a partner. Once they have a partner in India, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see daily flights to that alliances hub.

AC has time though. The 787 is late. Not just for AC. For everybody. So AC isn't at any particular disadvantage. Yet. Once the 787s start rolling, it's only a matter of time before some airline from India deploys them on daily service to Canada. And unlike EK, EY or QR, it'll be very difficult for AC to argue against such service, seeing as the ties between the countries warrant significantly more service. AC would be wise to deploy to the 787 to blunt competition quickly, rather than just simply using it as a tool to reduce CASM on established routes.

The ideal situation, would be some kind of joint venture with 9W as a Star Alliance partner, on YYZ-BOM, with a daily run on each airline with 787s.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: flyyul
Posted 2012-01-17 10:58:47 and read 8006 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 69):
This presents two very distinct choices. Higher loads from DEL or probably higher yields from BOM. In my opinion, AC has simply been chasing the wrong option. Push BOM and the yields and loads will follow.

Generally speaking when it comes to India, AC would simply be foolish not to take a chance here and put in a serious effort. The second largest population on the planet. An economy growing 2-3 times as fast as Canada's. The second largest diaspora in Canada, with increasingly growing commercial ties to the motherland. This is not the same situation that AC faced in the 90s or 2000s.

I have a feeling though that AC and a bunch of other Star Alliance carriers are waiting to see which airline emerges in India as a partner. Once they have a partner in India, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see daily flights to that alliances hub.

AC has time though. The 787 is late. Not just for AC. For everybody. So AC isn't at any particular disadvantage. Yet. Once the 787s start rolling, it's only a matter of time before some airline from India deploys them on daily service to Canada. And unlike EK, EY or QR, it'll be very difficult for AC to argue against such service, seeing as the ties between the countries warrant significantly more service. AC would be wise to deploy to the 787 to blunt competition quickly, rather than just simply using it as a tool to reduce CASM on established routes.

The ideal situation, would be some kind of joint venture with 9W as a Star Alliance partner, on YYZ-BOM, with a daily run on each airline with 787s.

Please rest assured that the Air Canada network planning team has done their due diligence on both of these markets. It also feedback from other STAR partners who fly in the regions, and have supporting data that would forecast the viability of a YYZ-BOM Route.

Unfortunately Air Canada would need to use a Boeing 777-200LR. The -200LR is an aircraft with sub-optimal economics due to the low seating capacity vs. -300ER and effectively burning almost as much fuel. There is very little supporting data that shows that the 787 would enjoy better payloads than the 777-300ER. It's also a popular misconception that the B787 would enjoy better total cost/seat vs. the 777-300ER also.

Even though the argument can be made that BOM enjoys more corporate and executive travel, it certainly lacks in market size vs. Northern India.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-17 11:49:08 and read 7932 times.

Quoting flyyul (Reply 70):
Unfortunately Air Canada would need to use a Boeing 777-200LR. The -200LR is an aircraft with sub-optimal economics due to the low seating capacity vs. -300ER and effectively burning almost as much fuel. There is very little supporting data that shows that the 787 would enjoy better payloads than the 777-300ER. It's also a popular misconception that the B787 would enjoy better total cost/seat vs. the 777-300ER also.

Why not a 789? If the route requires a 777 of any kind, then I simply don't think it'll be feasible.

Quoting flyyul (Reply 70):
Please rest assured that the Air Canada network planning team has done their due diligence on both of these markets. It also feedback from other STAR partners who fly in the regions, and have supporting data that would forecast the viability of a YYZ-BOM Route.
Quoting flyyul (Reply 70):
Even though the argument can be made that BOM enjoys more corporate and executive travel, it certainly lacks in market size vs. Northern India.

I have no doubts that AC's planners have studied the situation. This being A.net and none of us being AC network planners, surely, we can speculate freely.

I get that the north generates more VFR traffic. I'm just wondering (out loud) if BOM might make more sense on yields.

I wonder how the maths changes once potential Star Alliance partners are thrown into the mix. Surely, BOM could be a solid contender if 9W becomes a *A member. I can't imagine AC not feeding the *A hub in India.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2012-01-17 18:23:42 and read 7670 times.

Dont get me wrong, I have no doubts the 787 will be a marvellous aircraft for AC and all its operators - but it is replacing 767's.... yes, there may be a few new routes, but it is not so wonderful it automatically generates profit between any city pair, and lets face it, there is virtually every nationallity thinkable resident in Canada to generate some O&D/VFR traffic between most European, Asian & N.African major cities.

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 68):
However given Halifax increasing traffic to Europe I wouldn't be surprised to see YHZ-FRA start up in a few years using 787s.....

Take this one - for such short range relatively, what real saving would there be over a 767 or 333 today? If we are talking into a few years time, why not use an A319/320neo (which I am sure AC will wind up with)?

Quoting YTZ (Reply 71):
I wonder how the maths changes once potential Star Alliance partners are thrown into the mix. Surely, BOM could be a solid contender if 9W becomes a *A member. I can't imagine AC not feeding the *A hub in India.

They would just put an AC flight # on the existing 9W flight. And the only losers will be BA & AF/KL.

Why you will see 787's on new routes to China & S.America before India is premium traffic. Make the most of your resources.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: alsberg
Posted 2012-01-17 21:08:50 and read 7545 times.

I have no idea if this would work, but what about YYZ or YVR-ULN? This would ideally filter any North America traffic to ULN directly there. Are there enough Mongolians in North America for this? Enough business ties? Enough tourism(probably not)? But would all of those things combined be able to make ULN a good route for AC?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-01-18 01:53:10 and read 7375 times.

Air Canada used to route B747s on YYZ-LHR-BOM back in the 80s and 90s, it had the same issue of low yields alas. Nothing changes.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-18 08:21:14 and read 7147 times.

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 14):
Quoting darkroast (Reply 1):India would be one of the first markets to get into, I would think. BOM and DEL (with a tag on to ATQ maybe) would have a pretty decent load factor year round. Avoiding Russian airspace (if they had to)...
I'm curious, why do you feel they would they have to (circumvent Russian airspace)?

AC has had issues with overflying Russian airspace in the past, I wasnt sure if the issue has been settled. Always figured the routing (and lack of appropriate aircraft) had something to do with it. An old link below:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_i...ada%20&storyID=news/canad11123.xml

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-18 08:26:37 and read 7120 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 12):
Quoting 744 (Reply 2):I non-stop from YYZ to BOM would be awesome!!! It will be a full load and a $$$ making flight to BOM and DEL
Not so much - yields are too low.

Not quite sure why that would be the case (respectfully). In many respects, the India and China markets are similar in their sensitivity to price and yet AC treats China differently. Also, on a recent EK flight to DXB, I saw a completely full J class, and I would warrant 90+ percent of passengers were connecting to a destination in India.

Given the popularity of Aeroplan, a non-stop *A carrier to India would be a good, I would have thought. Also, I really dont consider AI to be competition on the route, their reputation is (deservedly) in tatters and the current AI customers would love some real competition.

A different discussion might be whether the 787 is the right aircraft for the route (capacity too low, etc).

Regards

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: yeogeo
Posted 2012-01-18 08:43:44 and read 7127 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 75):
AC has had issues with overflying Russian airspace in the past, I wasnt sure if the issue has been settled. Always figured the routing (and lack of appropriate aircraft) had something to do with it. An old link below...

(from link) "Negotiations between the Russian and Canadian governments began in Montreal Nov. 3, but they "ended without success" late last week... The dispute began last month when Russian authorities refused permission for Air Canada to fly over Russian airspace on a new nonstop route from Toronto to New Delhi. The Russian government claimed the flights do not meet the terms of an aviation treaty signed in 2000, but Air Canada believes it was refused permission to prevent the airline from competing with Russian carriers."

Thanks for the link, darkroast. What was the date for that article, do you know? This is (was) an issue I was not aware of.

Sorry to go a bit off-topic, but... Can anyone tell me the history of the YYZ-DEL route mentioned in the article linked?
I assume this disagreement with Russia was resolved? (In the unlikely event that there was not a resolution, it certainly would affect this discussion re: flights to India).

yeo

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-18 08:55:54 and read 7100 times.

I don't buy the yields argument. EK and EY have no issue filling widebodies from YYZ with mostly India bound pax. And they do quite well with their J and F cabins on these runs. Surely not all their J and F pax are getting off in DXB. So why can't AC make India work? I think this has more to do with AC than the supposed stinginess of Canadian India bound pax.

And as somebody has pointed out. What makes China so different?

IMHO, if AC misses this opportunity to serve India (on induction of the 787), they may well make themselves less relevant than they already are to South Asian Canadians. By the point AC starts using 787s on long haul, EK/EY/QR/9W will all have developed significantly loyal customer bases in Canada. And sooner or later, their MPs may well start agreeing with their constituents that AC deserves less protection from these competitors if it's unwilling to serve the travel demands of a significant minority community in Canada.

I'm a strong supporter of AC. But they need to compete. Their laziness in relying on Star Alliance will hurt them in the long run. Heck, I can even see EK/EY/QR possibly stealing some of their China and South-East Asia traffic. Once you're a regular on EK/EY/QR, it won't be that much of a stretch to go a few hours out of your way to keep flying on these airlines, if the fare differential is neglibile. The only major advantage AC (and other legacy carriers) has over these airlines, is that it can offer direct flights. If it can't or won't do that, EK/EY/QR may well start winning marketshare even if they have higher fares. Their brands are that strong (and AC's rep that poor), especially among South Asian Canadians.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-18 09:07:02 and read 7065 times.

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 77):
Thanks for the link, darkroast. What was the date for that article, do you know? This is (was) an issue I was not aware of.

This was in 2003-2004. I am not aware if the issue has been "resolved" or simply gone away since AC doesn't fly to India at all.

Told you it was an old link  

Cheers

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-18 09:18:39 and read 7036 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 78):

Bang on. At some point, MPs in the Indo-Canadian-rich 905 regions where the conservatives have seen success in the 2011 federal elections will start to hear some feedback. I dont support EK's tactics by any means, but it seems a shame that the loser is the Canadian traveller (of any ethnicity).

However, this thread is about the 787. Perhaps a question for another thread would be whether there are ANY city pairings around 7500nm that dont have a high F/J component.

Regards

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-18 10:49:38 and read 6906 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 80):

It's a very relevant topic to discuss AC and India, given that the 787 will finally make India services economically feasible. AC will now have an aircraft with the range to reach India, without requiring a huge passenger commitment. If AC can't put ~250 bums in seats everyday, with a community broaching 1.5 million in Canada (with half a million located around Pearson), there is something seriously wrong with that airline.

...As much as I like EK/EY/QR's service, I don't support granting them unfettered access to the Canadian market. However, when the 787 enters service, AC will have absolutely no excuse for not launching non-stop flights to India. And if they continue expanding in China, whilst ignoring India, you can bet that the South Asian community, which dominates the 905, some outer Vancouver ridings and even some of the 416 will start asking why they are being shafted by their national airline. And there is no doubt in mind that given AC's China focus, many might even see this as an intentional bias.

It's simple to see the 787 as just another aircraft acquisition for AC. And that it'll be a straight 1-for-1 replacement for its 767s. But there are political ramifications, when you have a community of 1.5 million that feels under-reserved who mostly reside in key electoral ridings. If AC's executives, have even an ounce of political savvy, they must surely have already started studying the issue.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-18 11:03:39 and read 6879 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 76):
Not quite sure why that would be the case (respectfully). In many respects, the India and China markets are similar in their sensitivity to price and yet AC treats China differently. Also, on a recent EK flight to DXB, I saw a completely full J class, and I would warrant 90+ percent of passengers were connecting to a destination in India.

The big difference ... as opposed to anecdotal evidence, is that AC has hard indisputable numbers through its Star Alliance partners exactly how many passengers wish to fly between Canada and India, how often they wish to travel, and how much they are willing to pay.

If the money were there, so would be AC!

Quoting YTZ (Reply 78):
IMHO, if AC misses this opportunity to serve India

You mean for the fourth time???

And for the record ... right now, in 2011/2012, the yield for Canada - China is DOUBLE that of India.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 78):
Their brands are that strong (and AC's rep that poor), especially among South Asian Canadians.

AC's rep? You mean voted best in North American year after year after year? In every international market to Canada, Air Canada has the greatest market share, (except for one, and that is Hong Kong). And among the new routes being explored for the B787 are a second daily each for YVR and YYZ, and a daily YYC added ... to address that loss of high yield market share.

It has been shown time and time again, that South Asian Canadians don't give a rat's ass about brand ... one thing and one thing only is important, and that is price. And it is that price sensitivity that keeps AC out of India, there are better uses for expensive aircraft.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-18 11:56:53 and read 6769 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
And for the record ... right now, in 2011/2012, the yield for Canada - China is DOUBLE that of India.

Since AC doesnt fly to India, I assume you mean the market in aggregate? If yes, I'd be curious where that information can be reliably had.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
The big difference ... as opposed to anecdotal evidence, is that AC has hard indisputable numbers through its Star Alliance partners exactly how many passengers wish to fly between Canada and India, how often they wish to travel, and how much they are willing to pay.

You mean they have numbers from LH, which is about the only major airline in the alliance with anything approaching decent coverage to India. Anecdotally (again, damn that!) LH isnt exactly the first choice of South Asian Canadians, per a travel agent I know.

Where AC flies should be dictated by economic and business considerations alone. I'd always been under the impression that what was holding back service to India was having the right aircraft, but I guess that's not the case then?

I'll repeat an earlier question - are there ANY 7500nm city pairs that are economically viable without a great deal of premium traffic?

Regards

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-18 11:57:36 and read 6785 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
You mean voted best in North American year after year after year?

Hey. Don't get me wrong. I like AC. Fly them whenever I can. Doesn't mean that other South Asian Canadians don't think they're the pits. Especially when the choice is AC + *A partner vs. EK/EY/QR.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
In every international market to Canada, Air Canada has the greatest market share, (except for one, and that is Hong Kong).

That's probably true of airlines like BA, LH, etc. too. I don't find this surprising. Not hard when there's really only one dominant international carrier here. I'm sure SQ dominates on travel to SIN too, or QF to Australia. Given that WS has only recently been tying up with foreign carriers, until recently if you had anywhere to go in Canada except terminal destinations like YVR, you probably had to deal with an AC local flight. Inevitably, this means AC's fare is cheaper.

Combine that with the fact that flying to places like India, inevitably mean you have to take an AC flight to a *A hub (usually in Europe), and it's not hard to imagine that AC has such great market share. What do you think would happen to that market share if EK/EY/QR were given unfettered access to Canada?

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
And for the record ... right now, in 2011/2012, the yield for Canada - China is DOUBLE that of India.

And this right here is the problem with Air Canada. They lack the will to develop markets. While the Gulf carriers can make India work, AC, which should have a fairly captive market, might not be able to, even with 787s flying non-stops? If that's true, then AC is so inefiicient, that Canadians may well be better off letting it go under the next time it runs into turbulence.

Again. Why, I ask, can EK/EY/QR fill 77Ws and A380s everyday from AC's own hubs, while AC presumably can't even fill a 787 (as some here are asserting)? If that's true, is it the market or the airline?

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
It has been shown time and time again, that South Asian Canadians don't give a rat's ass about brand ... one thing and one thing only is important, and that is price.

You must not be South Asian. I can assure you that's not true. I see it in my own family. Whereas, in the past, it may have been all about the fare, increasingly, my own family members are quickly starting to understand the value of FF programs and the benefits of sticking to one airline. You'd be surprised at how many people I know who now stick to one airline. Particularly for EK and 9W (EY and QR are newer and less established). This is not a static situation by any means.

In the past, ticket prices, difficult connections, etc. meant a trip home every 5 years. Maybe. Now? With EK, you can be on Juhu Beach for breakfast in less than 20 hours and for $1400 (I remember ticket prices being higher than that 20 years ago when the dollar was worth a lot more and fuel prices were lower). That's completely changed the way the community at large views air travel to the homeland. And there's no going back. It's not just the fare. It's the quick connection and shorter total travel time. That's drawing loyalty to the likes of EK, EY, QR, 9W. Heck, quite often, these airlines are not even the lowest fare. Seriously. Look it up. You'll be surprised. If AC's management think it's only price sensitivity keeping South Asians from choosing AC, they are sorely mistaken.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
And it is that price sensitivity that keeps AC out of India, there are better uses for expensive aircraft.

Fair enough. But then AC should not be surprised when a whole whackload of 416/905 MPs start pressing the government to grant EK, EY, QR, 9W and AI daily access to AC and Star Alliance's AC keeps saying India isn't important enough to serve directly. From the perspective of South Asians, 19 hrs (Eastbound) total travel time on EK/EY/QR/9W with only one stop, in a pretty luxurious airport (excepting BRU), is pretty close to as direct a service you can get. The only thing better would be a 14 hr non-stop. And if AC isn't going to oblige....

With no 787s, AC can always argue that it's not economically feasible to fill a 777 daily or that it simply doesn't have enough aircraft with the range to get there. Once AC's entire long-haul fleet consist of aircraft that are capable of connecting to any major Indian city, they are going to start running out of excuses. They better be good at playing politics then....

And to conclude, that's my point. The 787 has very strong political implications for AC. The range capabilities of the aircraft make so many new destinations possible. It also means that AC will face some serious pressure to serve some of these destinations. I have no clue how it will pan out. But to say that nobody will notice what the 787 means, is a bit naive.

[Edited 2012-01-18 12:14:28]

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-18 12:29:37 and read 6705 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 82):
You mean for the fourth time???

I wouldn't count some double or triple stop milk run as an sort of serious effort. What do you think yields on their China runs would look like if they did the same thing there?

Quoting darkroast (Reply 83):
Anecdotally (again, damn that!) LH isnt exactly the first choice of South Asian Canadians, per a travel agent I know.

LH has a bad rep on its India runs. I've had some friends tell me a few days ago that they had an aircraft without AVOD on the FRA-BOM run. I don't know if they meant the AVOD wasn't functional or if the aircraft simply wasn't equipped with seatback screens. Does LH actually have long-haul birds without AVOD? That's hard to imagine.

The upside about a Star Alliance run to Europe is that AC is actually decent across the Atlantic. The downside to a Star Alliance run to India is that you have a European carrier with worse service taking you the rest of the way.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 83):
I'll repeat an earlier question - are there ANY 7500nm city pairs that are economically viable without a great deal of premium traffic?

Why 7500nm? How many city pairs are possible for legacy carriers without decent premium loads? AC would probably struggle to be profitable on TATL routes without premium traffic. That said, I strongly believe there's some serious misconceptions about the demand for premium seats to the sub-continent. When the Gulf carriers do decently on filling premium seats from YYZ, I find it hard to believe that the Star Alliance carriers struggle with J/F loads to India. What makes the Gulf carriers so much more capable in this regard?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-18 16:24:54 and read 6513 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 85):
When the Gulf carriers do decently on filling premium seats from YYZ, I find it hard to believe that the Star Alliance carriers struggle with J/F loads to India. What makes the Gulf carriers so much more capable in this regard?

Many factors, but one is that EK does not fly one-stop. It may (or not, I don't know what their yields are) fill F/J on YYZ-DXB, but it then transfers pax carrying on to India into yield efficient aircraft.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-18 17:27:56 and read 6435 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 84):
19 hrs (Eastbound) total travel time on EK/EY/QR/9W with only one stop, in a pretty luxurious airport (excepting BRU), is pretty close to as direct a service you can get. The only thing better would be a 14 hr non-stop.

Why not virtually all the major European carriers via LHR/FRA/AMS/CDG/ZRH etc? Mileage is also often slightly shorter via Europe than via the Gulf hubs.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 84):
While the Gulf carriers can make India work, AC, which should have a fairly captive market, might not be able to, even with 787s flying non-stops? If that's true, then AC is so inefiicient, that Canadians may well be better off letting it go under the next time it runs into turbulence.

If AC was based in a country where there were no taxes, where unions are illegal, had the same very low costs at their hubs that the Gulf carriers enjoy at their hubs (among the lowest in the world), and where the airline/airport/handling agent/regulatory authority are all basically the same (the government), AC would be as efficient as the Gulf carriers.

If you can't compete on costs with EK/EY/QR, which is the case for almost all carriers based outside the Gulf, you have to concentrate your assets on routes where you are competitive with other major operators since you have little choice but to match the fares of your lowest-cost competitors.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2012-01-18 18:37:37 and read 6355 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 81):
It's simple to see the 787 as just another aircraft acquisition for AC. And that it'll be a straight 1-for-1 replacement for its 767s

Its simple because it is true...

Look at it this way. 767 leases will expire and they will be retired. What will do the flying the current 767's do? (HINT - new aircraft AC has on order)

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-18 20:35:08 and read 6246 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 87):
Why not virtually all the major European carriers via LHR/FRA/AMS/CDG/ZRH etc? Mileage is also often slightly shorter via Europe than via the Gulf hubs.

You'd be surprised. But connection times always tend to be longer in Europe than in DXB or AUD or DOH. I suspect it's because the Gulf carriers often have higher frequencies to India than the European carriers.

Aside from that there's perception. For better or worse, there is a strong perception among South Asians that EK/EY/QR offer better service than LH/BA/AF/KLM, etc. I don't know how much truth there is to it, but that perception is quite prevalent. From my own experience, I do find that the European carriers often put better equipped aircraft on TATL routes and worse aircraft (older, less features (like AVOD), etc.) on their Europe-India routes.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 87):
If AC was based in a country where there were no taxes, where unions are illegal, had the same very low costs at their hubs that the Gulf carriers enjoy at their hubs (among the lowest in the world), and where the airline/airport/handling agent/regulatory authority are all basically the same (the government), AC would be as efficient as the Gulf carriers.

If you can't compete on costs with EK/EY/QR, which is the case for almost all carriers based outside the Gulf, you have to concentrate your assets on routes where you are competitive with other major operators since you have little choice but to match the fares of your lowest-cost competitors.

We've been through this before. I've strongly supported the government's stance against expansion of landing rights for the gulf carriers. But that stance is far less defensible, in a scenario where AC may have the ability to service India, but choses not to, thereby artificially inflating fares on the sector, to the detriment of South Asian Canadians.

As for how you compete....the best way to compete would actually be to offer more direct service. It becomes quite obvious that AC is simply protecting its own and its partner's profits when they start routing traffic through Star Alliance hubs. It's one thing to protect AC. It's a whole other matter, to protect LH. Why as a Canadian, should I protect LH's interests?

But like I said, this isn't about my personal view. I simply see the reality where a significant minority community, that's electorally influential, will start questioning why they are not properly serviced by their national airline which is being protected from foreign competition which flies to their preferred destination.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 88):
Its simple because it is true...

Look at it this way. 767 leases will expire and they will be retired. What will do the flying the current 767's do? (HINT - new aircraft AC has on order)

But this isn't a static scenario. AC could easily service more of South America and the Carribean with mostly Airbus narrowbody flights. This could free up some 767/787 routes.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2012-01-18 21:26:20 and read 6207 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 89):
AC could easily service more of South America and the Carribean with mostly Airbus narrowbody flights.

Caribbean maybe subject to what routes the new LCC takes over, but not South America - do you have any idea what cargo revenues AC get from this market?? And if anything, the trend is upwards in capacity, not downwards. But you missed my point, the 767's (and 333's) are going to have to be replaced - where do they fly now? The routes that can be operated by the A32S, even the neo variant, are in the minority. Take YVR routes - PVG, NRT, ICN, PEK, LHR? Thats 5 frames right there. Only possibilites are HNL, OGG & LIH and AC use the 767 for a reason there too, plus CUN etc which is mostly A32S anyway - and these I would bet will all go to the new LCC arm anyway.

I really think China will be the way forward for first of all increased frequencies, then new routes. Yes, Im sure they could fill a 787 to BOM or DEL or both daily, and yes it is a growing economy and yes there is growing business ties, but for the most part traffic is VFR which generally = low yields.

But China is a far more mature market and will generate far more business traffic = better yields. Ever tried to book a J ticket ex YVR to PVG or HKG?? You can buy a brand new Kia for cheaper more often than not if there are any seats available...

AC may be conservative compared to how some a.netters feel they should be - but I think you can be sure someone in the organization has a grip on where the money is to be made. So Im not saying they will never go to India, but within the time frame we are talking about - they wont even get their first bird for another 18 months at least - this is not going to be the top of their priority list.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: whiteguy
Posted 2012-01-18 22:11:57 and read 6170 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 88):
Quoting YTZ (Reply 81):
It's simple to see the 787 as just another aircraft acquisition for AC. And that it'll be a straight 1-for-1 replacement for its 767s

Its simple because it is true...

Look at it this way. 767 leases will expire and they will be retired. What will do the flying the current 767's do? (HINT - new aircraft AC has on order)


The first B767s won't be leaving until there are at least 12 to 15 B787s in service with AC.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-19 06:17:56 and read 5999 times.

All this all raises another question in my mind. Why didn't AC order more 787s? At near replacement levels, there is very little room for growth. And if China is at the top of the list for expansion (and I don't disagree that it should be), then AC has basically limited their ability to expand virtually everywhere else. Perhaps AC needs another dozen or so 787s.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2012-01-19 07:25:27 and read 5928 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 89):
As for how you compete....the best way to compete would actually be to offer more direct service. It becomes quite obvious that AC is simply protecting its own and its partner's profits when they start routing traffic through Star Alliance hubs. It's one thing to protect AC. It's a whole other matter, to protect LH. Why as a Canadian, should I protect LH's interests?

Not necessarily true. With revenue sharing to FRA it doesn't matter whether you are on LH or AC metal. But your comment raises something I don't remember hearing. So maybe someone who knows can answer. If a passenger books a ticket YYZ to BOM via FRA, does the revenue sharing apply to the whole flight or do they have a formula to break out the YYZ to FRA portion and only revenue share that portion?

If it is revenue share the whole way then it is very likely in AC's interest to market BOM and pump as many passengers as possible through LH. If it is only on the cross Atlantic portion then there would come a point where it would be advantageous for AC to start direct flights.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 92):
All this all raises another question in my mind. Why didn't AC order more 787s? At near replacement levels, there is very little room for growth. And if China is at the top of the list for expansion (and I don't disagree that it should be), then AC has basically limited their ability to expand virtually everywhere else. Perhaps AC needs another dozen or so 787s

Once labour contracts settle out, the LCC is proceding or shelved, and the downturn is better determined, I believe there will be conversion of some of the options to orders. And I expect some of those later birds to be finallized as 789's. Up to a certain point AC can switch models. I also expect a small top up order of 77W (2 or 4).

The biggie I think is the status of the 763's. If they are converted to LCC and kept in the fleet longer to service routes suited to that approach, I think that could cause a shuffling that may result in new routes sooner.

Who knows, maybe there is a LCC potential for BOM or DEL via a stopover.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-19 07:52:35 and read 5895 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 84):
You must not be South Asian. I can assure you that's not true. I see it in my own family.

You are right, I am not South Asian. That is how I am able to view this issue without emotion, and looking only at numbers. As soon as one adds emotion and "home town pride" then the view becomes skewed.

I encounter that with Antigua. My "home town". I always wonder why AC doesn't fly there twice a day, but ... alas ... the numbers speak otherwise. And back in the DC-8 days, AC did fly daily to ANU, but it was in various combinations through YUL or BDA, and continuing onto BGI and POS. Right now, flights there are almost always full, and fares are suspiciously high. To me that would warrant more flights. But, the people with ALL of the information believe otherwise. That being said though, I do not take offense at the lack of daily flights to ANU.

You mention, you and your family. But, and I say this with respect, simply because you are an "a-netter" you become "not normal". Let's face it, we pick flights entirely differently than most people. We pick flights by airline, by stopover point, by aircraft type ... then, fare comes into play. But for the average traveller, that is entirely different. In every survey, fare is always the number one choice of travellers who are paying for the flight themselves. This is by a very very wide margin. The much lower in priority is schedule and FF program. On-board service is rarely mentioned!

Quoting YTZ (Reply 89):
For better or worse, there is a strong perception among South Asians that EK/EY/QR offer better service than LH/BA/AF/KLM, etc. I don't know how much truth there is to it

I notice you don't mention AI. Who offers a daily non-stop to DEL. And ...for a fare of $438! You think AC should try to compete with a fare like that? Think about it ... take a $150M+ aircraft and fly it for almost 12,000 kms .... for $438 a head!

Quoting YTZ (Reply 89):
It becomes quite obvious that AC is simply protecting its own and its partner's profits when they start routing traffic through Star Alliance hubs. It's one thing to protect AC. It's a whole other matter, to protect LH. Why as a Canadian, should I protect LH's interests?

This is a common misconception. The alliance carriers must offer connections through their hubs, but it is more intended as a "top-up". And the reason why they would rather not do it, is simply economics. AC can sell YYZ-FRA for more (per mile) than the first leg of a YYZ-FRA-DEL fare, whereby LH gets the FRA-DEL portion, plus a percentage of the YYZ-FRA leg. LH, would rather sell just the FRA-DEL leg, and not as a portion of the YYZ-FRA-DEL fare.

Just for fun look at the YYZ-FRA fares, look at the FRA-DEL fares .... then look at AI's fare of $438 ... and there is your answer.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-19 07:58:50 and read 5887 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 92):
Why didn't AC order more 787s?

A further 23 are on option, with frames reserved. The delay is likely pending on whether an -8 or a -9 is ordered.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-19 12:20:00 and read 5711 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
You are right, I am not South Asian. That is how I am able to view this issue without emotion, and looking only at numbers. As soon as one adds emotion and "home town pride" then the view becomes skewed.

I encounter that with Antigua. My "home town". I always wonder why AC doesn't fly there twice a day, but ... alas ... the numbers speak otherwise. And back in the DC-8 days, AC did fly daily to ANU, but it was in various combinations through YUL or BDA, and continuing onto BGI and POS. Right now, flights there are almost always full, and fares are suspiciously high. To me that would warrant more flights. But, the people with ALL of the information believe otherwise. That being said though, I do not take offense at the lack of daily flights to ANU.

I'm not saying this becoming I am of Indian descent. I'm saying this because there is a reality to a community of 1.5 million Canadians (of which nearly half are located in the YYZ catchment area) are underserved. If that much heft were not there, I wouldn't bring this up.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
You mention, you and your family. But, and I say this with respect, simply because you are an "a-netter" you become "not normal". Let's face it, we pick flights entirely differently than most people. We pick flights by airline, by stopover point, by aircraft type ... then, fare comes into play. But for the average traveller, that is entirely different. In every survey, fare is always the number one choice of travellers who are paying for the flight themselves. This is by a very very wide margin. The much lower in priority is schedule and FF program. On-board service is rarely mentioned!

You missed my point. I'm not suggesting that I have changed the way I pick flights. I am suggesting that those around me are quickly starting to understand the benefits of loyalty. Keep in mind that regular air travel and the benefits of frequent flier programs is a rather new concept for South Asians. Most see Aeroplan and Air Miles as useless. It doesn't get the to India (their persepective). But they do understand what FFPs mean if they stick to EK/EY/QR/9W. Among these, I've seen more people become loyal to EK and 9W. The latter particularly because its own FFP is catching on quickly inside India itself.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
I notice you don't mention AI. Who offers a daily non-stop to DEL. And ...for a fare of $438! You think AC should try to compete with a fare like that? Think about it ... take a $150M+ aircraft and fly it for almost 12,000 kms .... for $438 a head!

$438? Where'd you see that? In any event, we both know that this is not sustainable for AI in the long run. The viabiliy of AI aside, what choice does AC have? If that fare holds (and I don't think it will), South Asian Canadians would abaondon AC and Star Alliance in droves and AI would have a gold mine on its hands.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
This is a common misconception. The alliance carriers must offer connections through their hubs, but it is more intended as a "top-up". And the reason why they would rather not do it, is simply economics. AC can sell YYZ-FRA for more (per mile) than the first leg of a YYZ-FRA-DEL fare, whereby LH gets the FRA-DEL portion, plus a percentage of the YYZ-FRA leg. LH, would rather sell just the FRA-DEL leg, and not as a portion of the YYZ-FRA-DEL fare.

The problem with Star Alliance and going through FRA is that Star Alliance has horrible coverage in India, compared to EK (which serves 10 cities in India). So unless you are terminating in BLR, DEL, MAA or BOM, then flying Star Alliance inevitably involves a second stop. This is what makes the Gulf airlines popular. It's not just the fares.

Conversely, feeding a hub partner in India (BOM or DEL most likely), would mean that nearly all of India would be accessible in one stop. Do that and not to many people will care about the low fare.

Speaking of that low fare, what does it tell you that despite that low fare, so many people want to travel on EK, EY. QR and 9W with more stops? At a higher price? Like I said, it's not all about the fare.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-19 12:29:34 and read 5694 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 95):
A further 23 are on option, with frames reserved. The delay is likely pending on whether an -8 or a -9 is ordered.

Options. No firm orders. That was my point. Why not more firm orders?

As for -8 vs. -9, I thought they were going mostly -8's in the beginning? Personally, I would love to see AC go all -9 and offer something innovative like Premium Economy.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-19 12:37:10 and read 5679 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 96):
$438? Where'd you see that?

Air India home website.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 96):
The viabiliy of AI aside, what choice does AC have? If that fare holds (and I don't think it will), South Asian Canadians would abaondon AC and Star Alliance in droves and AI would have a gold mine on its hands.

I am not quite sure I understand this. You are saying the fare is not sustainable, then you say it is a gold mine ....

Bottom line is that IS the fare. And if AC were to enter the market (again) it is that fare with which they would compete. And quite frankly, I don't see AC chasing such a poor yielding market, and clearly they agree.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 96):
Conversely, feeding a hub partner in India (BOM or DEL most likely), would mean that nearly all of India would be accessible in one stop.

Is that not what AI is presently doing?

Quoting YTZ (Reply 96):
Speaking of that low fare, what does it tell you that despite that low fare, so many people want to travel on EK, EY. QR and 9W with more stops? At a higher price? Like I said, it's not all about the fare.

If DEL is not the final destination, then no it is not. It is like saying there are cheap fares to LA, but in fact you are going to Bakersfield. Which is why I am saying that AC is not likely going to waste a B787 (or 3) on DEL flights. Why would they? To be competitive, they would have to fly non-stop to what ... 10 Indian cities?

Remember this thread is about the B787 and its new routes, not about flying to India from Canada.

But to risk a diversion in this thread, I do agree with your sentiment about the Gulf carriers. In fact looking at the Indian coverage offered by QR, that appears to be the best choice.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-19 12:47:46 and read 5655 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 97):
Options. No firm orders. That was my point. Why not more firm orders?

Because it is not necessary. The frames are reserved. "ordering" them as opposed to "optioning" them has no bearing at all, other than Public Relations.

I think AC is standing back for the moment to see how the B787 plays out.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-19 12:49:53 and read 5661 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
The alliance carriers must offer connections through their hubs, but it is more intended as a "top-up".

It certainly isn't for major alliance carriers like KLM. Conections through their AMS hub is their primary market. Same goes for LX. Both would be much smaller or may not even exist if they had to rely only on O&D traffic. In my experience It's common for 80% or more of the passengers on many KL and LX flights to/from AMS/ZRH to be connecting beyond. Just watch the number of arriving passengers on many European flights that head to customs and baggage claim at AMS or ZRH as opposed to proceding to the gate for their connecting flight. Sometimes it's almost none.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-19 12:57:37 and read 5631 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 100):
It certainly isn't for major alliance carriers like KLM. Conections through their AMS hub is their primary market. Same goes for LX.

I agree. But in those examples, the carrier is the same in and out. The fare is not "shared". And ... that is almost the premise for the existence of the airline itself. I look at carriers like KL, LX and in fact SQ, that developed over the decades into a prime "connection" carrier.

It works in those cases as everything is connected with everything else. That is to say, it is no worse with regard to revenue that say having dozens of direct flights, all through the same city.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2012-01-19 13:54:40 and read 5610 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 96):
I'm not saying this becoming I am of Indian descent. I'm saying this because there is a reality to a community of 1.5 million Canadians (of which nearly half are located in the YYZ catchment area) are underserved. If that much heft were not there, I wouldn't bring this up.

I think you are just saying the market is underserved because you can't fly AC. Not because there aren't a myriad of options to get to India. If there was a mass of people wanting to fly to India who couldn't get tickets, you wouldn't see AI low fares, you would see more volume by the carriers who are already flying like Jet Airways. Jet would sub a 777 readily instead of an A330 through BRU. If there was a pent up demand I think one of the charters would find a way to serve India.

AC will have a very clear idea how many total J and full fare economy seats are being taken up, how much cargo they might attract from their existing customers, an estimate of how much total trade comes from, and needs to go to India by air, that can't go through any of the existing networks (LH through FRA and others), and then how many seats are left to go by seat sale or deal. They can even make a guess by having someone observe check in and watch First Class lines (EK and EY in YYZ and Qatar in YUL). It starts to give a pretty good picture of how profitable or not an AC flight would be. To go into a loss position on a route, there has to be very good reasons. AC due to cost structures can't fly a myriad of international routes that aren't productive or they are going to be in big trouble.

Due to your background and connections you feel you know there is more demand than AC feels, or you feel in order to protect market they should go into a loss position to not "slight" a segment of the community. If a chunk of that community is flying all over for business and is willing to pay significant airfares, you are correct that AC is missing the boat. If it is only a group who wants to fly to India every year or every few years for a good price, and can't and is vocal about it, and even if AC was flying there and was "too expensive" and would fly someone cheaper anyway, then AC is better to tick you off or leave the community upset with them. AC is a business, not a flag carrier who has government cushion to do whatever, and must do what makes sense even if segments of the population don't like it.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-20 06:09:22 and read 5302 times.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 102):
I think you are just saying the market is underserved because you can't fly AC. Not because there aren't a myriad of options to get to India.

Hold on. I'm not saying that I should have the right to fly AC. I'm suggesting that AC should compete with the Gulf Three by offering more direct connections to South Asia. That's my contention.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 102):
AC is a business, not a flag carrier who has government cushion to do whatever, and must do what makes sense even if segments of the population don't like it.

We both know, it's not as simple as that. If it was, why the Public Participation Act? Why the protection from foreign competition? If AC is "just a business", then why bother debating how many slots EK/EY should get. Let AC compete with them, just like any normal business would have to face its competitors. But they aren't "just a business" are they? They may not be the official state-run flag carrier anymore, but the level of protection they are accorded (with some justification, that I support), does not make them "just a business" either.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 98):
I am not quite sure I understand this. You are saying the fare is not sustainable, then you say it is a gold mine ....
Quoting longhauler (Reply 98):
Bottom line is that IS the fare. And if AC were to enter the market (again) it is that fare with which they would compete. And quite frankly, I don't see AC chasing such a poor yielding market, and clearly they agree.

Since when is yield solely determined by the lowest, most discounted economy fare you can find?

In any event, my point was that, if AI persists in sustaining that fare (and given their financial troubles that's doubtful), surely then AC would suffer damages on its Europe/Star Alliance feeder routes. So like it or not, they have to find a way to compete. If they weren't concerned about competition on low-yielding routes after all, why fight so hard against the Gulf Airlines? After all, they don't care about low-yielding India bound pax right?

Quoting longhauler (Reply 98):
Remember this thread is about the B787 and its new routes, not about flying to India from Canada.

The induction of the 787 robs them of any excuse in not being able to serve the sub-continent. Moreover, since the government's contention is that landing rights should be based on O-D traffic, it won't be difficult for airlines from India to start campaigning for significant expansion in landing rights to Canada. And unlike the Gulf three, it'll be very hard for AC to argue against such service.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 102):
Jet would sub a 777 readily instead of an A330 through BRU.

Given that 9W has leased a good chunk of its 77W fleet, do they even have a 77W to spare? They also send the A332 to Newark. Does that mean there's low demand there too?

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 102):
AC due to cost structures can't fly a myriad of international routes that aren't productive or they are going to be in big trouble.

I'm not in any way suggesting that AC should fly unprofitable routes. I am just skeptical of the point of view that AC can't make a go of India with the 787 (a very specific scenario). I don't think AC could have done it with a 777. But with a 787, I would think they could make money on this route, by putting up a unique offering (a direct flight). And if they don't? I sincerely hope they don't belong the expansion of 9W, IT, and AI into Canada, or even expansion by EK, EY and QR.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-20 08:43:07 and read 5198 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
I'm suggesting that AC should compete with the Gulf Three by offering more direct connections to South Asia. That's my contention.

And everyone else on this thread is saying ... why? If is not profitable, then they will not do it. Period.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
The induction of the 787 robs them of any excuse in not being able to serve the sub-continent.

AC doesn't need an "excuse". AC management is legally obliged to follow the best course, and chasing after low yield traffic using multi million dollar aircraft just because it would look cool on the route map, is not the best course.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
I am just skeptical of the point of view that AC can't make a go of India with the 787 (a very specific scenario). I don't think AC could have done it with a 777.

OK, then I'll bite.

Why do YOU think AC is not flying to India? And when the short list of new routes for the B787, India was not on it. Why do YOU think that is?

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
Why the protection from foreign competition?
Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
why bother debating how many slots EK/EY should get.
Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
but the level of protection they are accorded

That is a topic for another thread, and not one on flying the B787. It is also another topic that is discussed a lot. No sense bringing up all the old arguments here. But I say again, if you think AC is protected by Canada's government, you are sadly mistaken!

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
But with a 787, I would think they could make money on this route, by putting up a unique offering (a direct flight)

And yet you state that AI can not make money on this route, with its lower cost structure.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
I sincerely hope they don't belong the expansion of 9W, IT, and AI into Canada

Because of the huge amount of traffic between the three countries, airlines of India (and Pakistan) are offered full access to Canada already. They presently can fly as much as they like.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
or even expansion by EK, EY and QR.

There is very little O&D traffic between the Gulf states and Canada. For that reason, the bilateral between the countries is what it is. This is Canadian law.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-20 09:26:26 and read 5142 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
I'm not in any way suggesting that AC should fly unprofitable routes. I am just skeptical of the point of view that AC can't make a go of India with the 787 (a very specific scenario).

Maybe it can (although previous attempts would suggest otherwise). But "making a go of it" is not the point; flying the most profitable routes is, especially with a brand-new "premium" aircraft. If there are more profitable routes for the aircraft, no sane airline is going to choose to make a lower return.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 103):
it won't be difficult for airlines from India to start campaigning for significant expansion in landing rights to Canada

Why? They're not even close to exercising their current rights. AI/9W have the right to 14,000 seats each way per week (approximately 40 return flights) to YUL/YYZ/YVR/YEG, with 5th freedom rights into the U.S. They also have unlimited cargo rights. That they're not even close to this should tell you something about the market.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: HOONS90
Posted 2012-01-20 09:32:29 and read 5138 times.

Could YYZ-ICN nonstop return with the 787? AC operated it last in the summer of '08 with a 77W 3x weekly as flight AC065/66.

If not, then I guess that the current YVR-ICN service will become a 787 sooner or later.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-20 09:57:39 and read 5088 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 104):
Why do YOU think AC is not flying to India?

If I recall previous interviews with Milton correctly, he said that they couldn't fill 777s daily. That I buy. But a 787? Would it really be hard to fill one of those everyday?

Quoting longhauler (Reply 104):
But I say again, if you think AC is protected by Canada's government, you are sadly mistaken!

Don't mistake me for one of those who took the side of EK in the recent spat. I did not. That said, while AC is not directly protected by legislation, the Canadian market (which is very heavily dominated by AC on the international sectors) is protected by the government. This is de facto protectionism. Now it can be accepted up to a point. I do buy the government's contention OD traffic should be favoured so as to help Canada cultivate deeper links with countries from where our citizen either come from or have significant business links. With that said, in due course, if Star Alliance continues to offer sub-par connections to the sub-continent, it would be kinda hard to argue against the expansion of EK/EY/QR into Canada, since clearly even OD traffic between Canada and India is not being served optimally by AC and its partners.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 105):
Why? They're not even close to exercising their current rights. AI/9W have the right to 14,000 seats each way per week (approximately 40 return flights) to YUL/YYZ/YVR/YEG, with 5th freedom rights into the U.S. They also have unlimited cargo rights. That they're not even close to this should tell you something about the market.

I strongly suspect that this has to do with the state of the airline industry in India itself. AI is a mess at the moment. But it's mostly the domestic side of their houses dragging them down....and chewing up capital. Once they get their act together I expect some aggressive international expansion (particularly from 9W). They do have 10 787s on order. And we still have to wait and see what AI does with their 787s.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YTZ
Posted 2012-01-20 10:13:19 and read 5051 times.

Quoting HOONS90 (Reply 106):
Could YYZ-ICN nonstop return with the 787? AC operated it last in the summer of '08 with a 77W 3x weekly as flight AC065/66.

If not, then I guess that the current YVR-ICN service will become a 787 sooner or later.

It would seem to me that these are the kind of routes that the 787 is designed for. Instead of 3x/wk 77W, go daily with a 787. Again, leaves me wondering why AC hasn't exercised a few more options on the 787.

I would go so far as to say that the 777 might be too much airplane for AC. They could have a much wider network with a mix of 788s and 789s. Sadly, the 787s weren't available when they should have been.

And I do wonder how much alliance agreements might prohibit launching direct services which could cost alliance partners passenger feed.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-20 10:48:56 and read 5001 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 108):
Again, leaves me wondering why AC hasn't exercised a few more options on the 787.

Again ... it wouldn't get the airframes any quicker.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 108):
And I do wonder how much alliance agreements might prohibit launching direct services which could cost alliance partners passenger feed.

Not at all. The intent of the alliances is the develop new routes, and top up existing routes. The best example would be the United States. Using information between the two airlines, has allowed AC and UA to start new routes avoiding hubs like ORD and YYZ.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 107):
If I recall previous interviews with Milton correctly, he said that they couldn't fill 777s daily. That I buy. But a 787? Would it really be hard to fill one of those everyday?

Well you tell me. AI has a daily B777. Is is going full? And if it is not ... why not?

Don't forget that even with the new technology, the seat mile costs of a B777W is still better than a B787-8. This is normal with such a large aircraft. I know I keep saying this, but it is accurate ... if the numbers work, you WILL see a B787 to India. If you don't ... then the numbers didn't work.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: zbbylw
Posted 2012-01-20 14:52:25 and read 4805 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 108):
I would go so far as to say that the 777 might be too much airplane for AC.

What a crock of BS. While the "seat number" may be a little high for some flights keep in mind that these aircraft provide HUGE cargo uplift and AC makes a killing on cargo on some of their runs. Frankfurt, Sao Paulo come to mind for 77W flights. Sometimes it's best if AC has 100 open seats so they can pack in more cargo this is important to remember. The 77W made it possible for them to terminate wet lease they had with a MD-11 that flew to FRA from YYZ. It also let convert a couple of 77F orders into passenger orders.

Other thing to note is per pax it's a cheaper airplane to operate due to the CASM. It is in fact a perfect fit for AC.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2012-01-20 14:59:07 and read 4792 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 85):
LH has a bad rep on its India runs. I've had some friends tell me a few days ago that they had an aircraft without AVOD on the FRA-BOM run. I don't know if they meant the AVOD wasn't functional or if the aircraft simply wasn't equipped with seatback screens. Does LH actually have long-haul birds without AVOD? That's hard to imagine.

When I last flew a LH 330, (about 5 years ago), they didn't have avod...just the screens at the front of the room...but a lot can happen in 5 years...or maybe not for some runs.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 109):
I know I keep saying this, but it is accurate ... if the numbers work, you WILL see a B787 to India. If you don't ... then the numbers didn't work.

I think what baffles most people, (at least baffles me), is the reason the numbers are so low...not that the numbers ARE too low to support more direct traffic.

My feeling is that traffic should be much higher than it is...but regardless, I think in a few years it will grow to meet expectations.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: idjim319
Posted 2012-01-20 17:28:31 and read 4699 times.

I continue to agree with longhauler's posts. AC management's job is to maximize return on investment in those rather expensive machines. AC always gets lambasted for losing money and why doesn't management know better blah blah. India has been that case several times and is exactly why the route gets dropped. While there is indeed a huge amount of people who want to go between the two countries, not enough were willing to pay high enough fares to justify assigning a machine(s) to the route. Even if you fill an airplane, it has no bearing on whether you make money on it. This is why AC doesn't fly there -- they've found other routes that yield a better ROI.

For example, you can fill a 100 seat airplane full with folks paying $50 each. Your revenue is $5000. Or...conversely you can fill a 100 seat plane with 50 people willing to pay $100. Your revenue again is $5000. Revenue is the same, costs are quite different. Never mistake a full airplane for a profitable flight -- you have no idea how much of that traffic is flying cheap cheap----or free on points. Obviously you can discount to your hearts content and fill an A380 (or a couple 77Ws) daily to India. It really has no bearing on whether you'll lose your shirt or not. It will however look pretty fancy in your inflight magazine that you have a flight on an A380 to India.

As for the new 787s, I imagine there are plenty of existing routes that will see a 787 replace a 767 to maximize profits (and secure operational performance targets) sooner than later. Those routes have an established premium customer base who will be happy to stick with them on the "new" birds, cargo lift can be maximized and load restrictions should be less problematic on the long haul high cargo routes. I believe AC route planners would have to be enormously sure of quick ROI on launching new routes with the 787 at the expense of retiring ever increasingly expensive 767s on existing routes.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: RP TPA
Posted 2012-01-21 10:44:44 and read 4400 times.

Quoting idjim319 (Reply 112):
they've found other routes that yield a better ROI.

What is "ROI"? I would guess revenue something or other, but not sure.

(edit): As soon as I posted this, I realized it probably means "return on invertment". Correct?

[Edited 2012-01-21 10:46:11]

[Edited 2012-01-21 10:46:44]

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: darkroast
Posted 2012-01-22 14:00:49 and read 4003 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 94):
I notice you don't mention AI. Who offers a daily non-stop to DEL. And ...for a fare of $438! You think AC should try to compete with a fare like that? Think about it ... take a $150M aircraft and fly it for almost 12,000 kms .... for $438 a head

Dont know where you're getting that number longhauler. I checked Sabre for a AI fare 17-Feb returning 03-Mar and it's $1374 including taxes. CX and AC to HKG direct are ~$1400. DEL is about 500nm closer than HKG per great circle mapper. Business class fares are also within $50 of each other.

Where AC flies should be a business decision only based on yield. Unfortunately, the basis for that decision isnt always clear to outsiders who can only be armchair route planners. That's where discussions like this can help add some perspectives.

Regards

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-22 14:08:06 and read 3993 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 114):
Dont know where you're getting that number longhauler. I checked Sabre for a AI fare 17-Feb returning 03-Mar and it's $1374 including taxes. CX and AC to HKG direct are ~$1400. DEL is about 500nm closer than HKG per great circle mapper. Business class fares are also within $50 of each other.

In markets like India, many carriers sell a lot of their capacity at low net fares through certain travel agents that cater to the VFR market. Those fares don't appear in systems.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-22 15:04:15 and read 3927 times.

Quoting darkroast (Reply 114):
Dont know where you're getting that number longhauler.

I checked on the Air India website. I think it was for middle of March, one way, YYZ-DEL. That is before taxes and fees, in other words, what the airline actually earns.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: YXD172
Posted 2012-01-22 15:38:38 and read 3876 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 116):
I checked on the Air India website. I think it was for middle of March, one way, YYZ-DEL. That is before taxes and fees, in other words, what the airline actually earns.

Not quite - there's a $221 fuel surcharge in there as well (each way), so that makes a return flight $1121 before tax (vs. AC's return price of $1110 before tax - through FRA or LHR). This compares to a pre-tax fare of $1224 for the YYZ-HKG flight on AC.

So, based on the extremely inaccurate sampling, having a direct flight does not allow AI to charge much more than AC's connection in Y - and both are still below AC's fare on YYZ-HKG, but not by too much (though on a flight that long, $100 might be the whole profit margin in Y)

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-22 16:53:10 and read 3803 times.

Quoting YXD172 (Reply 117):
Not quite - there's a $221 fuel surcharge in there as well

So the airline gets $659 to fly you almost 12000 kms in a $150M aircraft, or it could be $1200 or $5000 it really doesn't matter, the bottom line is, and I am going to say this again ...if the numbers work, you will see AC flying YYZ-DEL, if they do not, you will not.

When internally, employees asked about new routes for the B787, they said, what I said above ... currently the yield for India is about half that of China. It doesn't take too much to understand why ... when as you say, the fare YYZ-HKG is almost the same.

Quoting YXD172 (Reply 117):
(though on a flight that long, $100 might be the whole profit margin in Y)

It might be all the difference, it is that kind of business. But it really comes down to fair buckets, and inventory allocated to each fare level. With double the yield, clearly there are very different allocations for each fare level.

But, the company did say internally that India is not on the "short list" for new destinations. A lot of interesting new possibilities were mentioned, which the public will hear about when announced.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: zbbylw
Posted 2012-01-22 17:32:01 and read 3740 times.

Quoting YXD172 (Reply 117):

One thing you are neglecting to mention is how many of those HKG passengers are paying Tango fares vs Lattitude Fares. You would be surprised many business people actually pay much more than the Tango fares for things such as Aeroplan points (100%), flexibility etc... When traveling to VFR people tend do book their trips on holidays and don't tend to change dates too much. On business you may need the flexibility and it's worth paying the extra 500-750 dollars.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: ytz
Posted 2012-01-22 17:42:59 and read 3727 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 118):
A lot of interesting new possibilities were mentioned, which the public will hear about when announced.

So mostly China and South America I'm guessing? Maybe an extra Australia route in there?

Or by interesting do you mean something out there like YYZ-HNL?

Since I have no clue about the cargo markets, I'm guessing a lot of AC's business planning is driven by this sector. If they are willing to send 77W to South America then all this talk over pax yields is moot. Clearly, they are more driven by yields from the cargo business.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: longhauler
Posted 2012-01-22 19:11:39 and read 3637 times.

Quoting zbbylw (Reply 119):
One thing you are neglecting to mention is how many of those HKG passengers are paying Tango fares vs Lattitude Fares. You would be surprised many business people actually pay much more than the Tango fares for things such as Aeroplan points (100%),

Actually, that is exactly what I was saying. In other words, how else can you get twice the yield when the bottom fare is almost exactly the same!

I have been told that most businessmen buy a Tango fare outbound, but a Latitude fare back, as it is usually the return that changes.

Quoting ytz (Reply 120):
So mostly China and South America I'm guessing?

Yes, pretty well! A LOT more frequencies.

Quoting ytz (Reply 120):
Maybe an extra Australia route in there?

There have been rumours of MEL, but that is among employees, not from head office.

Quoting ytz (Reply 120):
If they are willing to send 77W to South America then all this talk over pax yields is moot

Yes, the Triple is a beast when it comes to cargo. As mentioned above, the MD11Fs that were wet leased became redundant with the advent of the B777. While not related to this thread, there has been talk of the B767 going to CCS, simply as the A319 can't keep up with cargo. That can only happen with the arrival the B787s, and B767s become free.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: zbbylw
Posted 2012-01-22 21:35:33 and read 3527 times.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 121):
Actually, that is exactly what I was saying. In other words, how else can you get twice the yield when the bottom fare is almost exactly the same!

I have been told that most businessmen buy a Tango fare outbound, but a Latitude fare back, as it is usually the return that changes.

Longhauler, I was actually directing that at YXD172 I agree with your explanations and all - was just trying to bring up a different angle so these guys can understand where you are getting at.

The guys at AC know what is happening behind the walls. I think you will see a YVR-CAN before YYZ-DEL(or BOM). The market in China for business people is much greater at this time than Canada. 95% of a flight to DEL or BOM would not be business people. You don't make money on that.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: connies4ever
Posted 2012-01-22 23:22:29 and read 3451 times.

Quoting zbbylw (Reply 122):
The guys at AC know what is happening behind the walls. I think you will see a YVR-CAN before YYZ-DEL(or BOM). The market in China for business people is much greater at this time than Canada. 95% of a flight to DEL or BOM would not be business people. You don't make money on that.

Quite agree. Any other cities in China that might be a candidate ? Or a possible YUL-China service with the 787.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-01-23 05:37:03 and read 3281 times.

After reading all this back and forth about whether AC should serve India nonstop or not, it seems as though their best option would be to let AI into *A and drop their code on the AI flights...

There is no way in hell that AC is going to make profit on sub $500 nonstop fares on this route, so they should just join AI instead of fighting them...

Of course, AC clearly doesn't think this way, or they would have voted in favor of AI's entry into *A and been code sharing already by now.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-23 08:45:25 and read 3151 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 124):
AC clearly doesn't think this way, or they would have voted in favor of AI's entry into *A

What vote? AI's application was suspended by mutual agreement between AI and *A in July 2011 because AI had failed to meet the minimum conditions for membership contractually agreed in 2007.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-01-23 09:35:51 and read 3100 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 125):
What vote? AI's application was suspended by mutual agreement between AI and *A in July 2011 because AI had failed to meet the minimum conditions for membership contractually agreed in 2007.

I see you've been drinking the kool-aid.

AI had met all qualifications by the July 2011 deadline (which *A set because they thought that there was no way in hell that AI would make it). They spent a ton of money which should have been spent on paying staff because they thought that things would finally work out...

The auditor confirmed that AI had met all requirements. Then *A had a meeting to confirm AI's membership, and EVERY SINGLE airline except for LH backed out and voted against AI's entry into *A.

Then *A came up with some BS about "mutually suspending the application" while AI's execs confusedly sat there doing whatever incompetent stuff they usually do...

From the point of view of an Indian taxpayer, it was a real tragedy that really put me off *A for a while...

In the end, Elite status dragged me back though  

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-23 10:01:33 and read 3072 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 126):
I see you've been drinking the kool-aid.

So, apparently, have the WSJ, NYT, Reuters, Economist, Guardian, Le Monde, etc, etc, etc.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 126):
The auditor confirmed that AI had met all requirements.

Source?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2012-01-23 10:03:46 and read 3069 times.

P.S.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 126):
AI had met all qualifications by the July 2011 deadline (which *A set because they thought that there was no way in hell that AI would make it).

So if they wanted to set a deadline that AI couldn't meet, why did *A extend the original 2009 deadline by 2 years?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: ytz
Posted 2012-01-23 11:19:57 and read 2971 times.

If China is so profitable though, is the 787 the right airplane? Why not more 777s? AC is clearly having no issues filling its 777s to China. So why not more 777s?

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: zbbylw
Posted 2012-01-23 12:39:46 and read 2900 times.

I think it comes down to the fact they would only make money on x amount of people per flight. Not everyone is traveling at the higher tiers. I do not know the 787 config but say they have around 30 seats in J, this could work out quite well. The 77L is very expensive to operate and the 77W fits 349 seats plus LOTS of cargo. The 77L costs about the same to operate as the 77W but has around 70 less seats and may be too big for a new destination. CAN is right by HKG and while the 767 can make PVG work out of YVR it's a fair bit longer to CAN. The 787 may just be the right airplane for a route like that. I would not be surprised if the 767 china flying (mainly out of YVR) changes to the 787 quickly as it will have a bit more capacity. The 333 just can not make it much past NRT heading West.

One thing you may see is once the 787s start coming and they have a small excess of airplanes, a route like GIG may open up on a 767. I think the YVR-YYZ flights may see a fair bit of widebody service during the introduction of the 787s.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-01-23 15:15:18 and read 2756 times.

Quoting ytz (Reply 129):
If China is so profitable though, is the 787 the right airplane? Why not more 777s? AC is clearly having no issues filling its 777s to China. So why not more 777s?

Demand is seasonal. It's also easy to fill flights but filling them profitably is something else. And with the expected huge growth in China traffic, the 787 makes it easier to add new destinations.

Topic: RE: AC 787 Routes
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-01-23 20:38:23 and read 2626 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 128):

So if they wanted to set a deadline that AI couldn't meet, why did *A extend the original 2009 deadline by 2 years?

LH had applied for the authority to send the A380 to India. They knew that it wouldn't happen if they rejected AI...

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 127):

So, apparently, have the WSJ, NYT, Reuters, Economist, Guardian, Le Monde, etc, etc, etc.

They all got it from the same source - *A.

I got my info from contacts both at AI and *A, and I'm pretty sure I have a pretty accurate account of what happened.


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