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Topic: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: tu154
Posted 2012-01-23 20:04:16 and read 5537 times.

I am in no way an AA hater. Nor do I want to see AA fail, be merged, or to enter ch. 7 and broken up like EA and PA.

My question is how far will AA shrink while in BK?

I know it's a lot of speculation but I'm also wondering if AA employees are going to have another round of concessions.
I've been in the industry long enough and have many friends at AA, and would hate to see them suffer. UA, DL and NW gave up a lot during their time in BK. Now with the industry making money employees that gave up so much now want a return in their investments.

Can AA offer anything to their employees to keep the morale up?


DEL and BUR are gone. What's next?

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: Acey559
Posted 2012-01-23 20:26:01 and read 5475 times.

It won't be easy, that's for sure. I started working for Comair ramp in '06 when DL was going through bankruptcy. Things weren't great and there were a lot of operational issues and morale wasn't high. Over the years things gradually got better and better, especially when US attempted the hostile takeover. That brought the employees together, united by a common cause. With the brief period of pilot hiring and flight attendant hiring bringing in fresh faces, the airline is looking much better that it did just a few years ago. Work isn't done, not by a long shot, but the company is making money and doing pretty well.

Applied to AA, I think that there is an opportunity to start a new culture. It especially won't be easy given AA's very senior workforce, but that doesn't mean it can't be done. The road is long, but it has to start somewhere. For everyone's sake, the customers most of all and employees of AA and MQ, I hope we pull through stronger and with a bright future. We'll see what happens, but my fingers and toes are crossed that we revitalize and return to the prominence that once was at AA.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: elmothehobo
Posted 2012-01-24 04:26:35 and read 5162 times.

I would be very surprised to see American (including Eagle and Connection ASMs) shrink more than 10% during bankruptcy. They spent the last decade triming the fat, everything from the ex-QQ M90, M80 and M87s; the SJC, RDU and STL hubs; the ex-TW DC-9s, 717s, 757s and 763s; their own A300s, non-ER 762s, 727s, F100s, MD-11s and started retiring the MD-80 and the 757; on the MQ side, they grounded a substantial portion of the ER3s, and grounded the entire ATR-42 and Saab 340 fleet.

Also, remember that American has outstanding orders for over five hundred mainline aircraft, as well as MQ (or Connection) picking up 70+ seat RJs when they emerge from BK.

This bankruptcy has everything to do with realigning costs, from labor costs to overhead - dumping pensions and leases on aircraft that are no longer operating. If you review the list of aircraft leases being dumped, they are overwhelmingly of aircraft that are no longer in service but still on the books, few of them are aircraft that are in operation now (IIRC the 757s are operating, but were scheduled for retirement anyway).

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: American 767
Posted 2012-01-24 11:11:13 and read 4837 times.

Quoting elmothehobo (Reply 2):
the SJC, RDU and STL hubs

BNA also. The RDU and BNA hubs were already dismantled in the mid 90s, before the merger with TWA.
The next hub likely to be dismantled is ORD although I don't think it would happen soon, at least not for now. Only these markets are likely to be kept on the mainline network out of ORD:

Domestic:
BOS, LGA, MIA definitely, DFW definitely, SAN, LAX definitely, SFO, SJC and SEA. American mainline will always have at least one daily flight to all of the above major business centers.
All other domestic markets: Eagle only.

International:
NRT and LHR on their own metal, not just code share with JL and BA.

Quoting elmothehobo (Reply 2):
and started retiring the MD-80 and the 757

Yes those two are the next to go although I'm sure the younger 757s will still hang around in the fleet for a while. Better fly on those MD-80s now before it's too late. The remaining 762s also are to be phased out in a not too distant future, the youngest one is already 25!

Quoting elmothehobo (Reply 2):
on the MQ side, they grounded a substantial portion of the ER3s, and grounded the entire ATR-42 and Saab 340 fleet.

Next to go are the ERJ-135s.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-24 11:48:38 and read 4735 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
BNA also. The RDU and BNA hubs were already dismantled in the mid 90s, before the merger with TWA.
The next hub likely to be dismantled is ORD although I don't think it would happen soon, at least not for now. Only these markets are likely to be kept on the mainline network out of ORD:

Sone shifts will happen at ORD but AA dehubbing is highly unlikely. ORD is the only city for AA to launch more flights to Asia. LAX is a heavily fished ocean, DFW is too far south as an effective gateway to China.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2012-01-24 12:35:48 and read 4615 times.

I dont see them cutting more than 10% of their flights. Eagle will loose a lot of flights to either a contract carrier or to mainline. Employees I see Pilots flying a lot more for less money, AA pilots flying 100 seater, allowing more code shares, Pilot reserve overhauled, FA'S flying more for less, MNTC all depends on if they outsource anything but will see a small pay cut. Ramp will see small pay cut, a lot of work outsourced cabin/fueling and possible freight and a lot of smaller stations closed and out sourced. Everyones penison is now frozen and everyone will be a on 401K. I think if they cut the workforce and the management takes cuts everyone can come together and start over and make a great airline thats lean and mean

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2012-01-24 19:38:39 and read 4332 times.

Don't expect any to shrink any more than its legacy peers that all endured this exact same process in the past 5-10 years. There could be a few more mainline cuts, but it will be Eagle that will continue to bear the brunt of the damage.

As for the ORD hub, it isn't going anywhere. AA will now enjoy lower costs that allow it to compete more effectively against UA, WN, DL, B6, VX, and even NK and F9 (now that they have the whole Apple thing from ORD). The current ORD operation is probably a historic low point for AA, at least in terms of mainline. If there is one hub with a question mark over it it'd be LAX, where AA faces extreme competition on all routes, be they regional, domestic, or international.

I daresay AA could grow its JFK hub by giving up a big chunk of its LGA slots that are being wasted on regional markets right now. I bet B6 wouldn't mind giving up some slots at JFK by cutting redundant Florida frequencies that can then be flown from the more popular LGA.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: Boeing773ER
Posted 2012-01-24 20:23:46 and read 4221 times.

I don't believe AA can really shrink much more than they can.

LAX has a little bit of room to be shrunk. LAX has a large amount of competition no matter where you turn, and it isn't all at LAX. It is the whole Los Angles area such as Long Beach, and the rest of the airports around there.

I don't see DFW and MIA being reduced any bit, since DFW is relatively competition free (for now). actually I see growth there with lower costs.

For JFK I'm not sure what will happen, I think they could grow but at the same time where would they grow? Does AA even have any JFK slots to grow?

I definitely see LGA being shrunk. I think that AE will see the most cuts within the AA group and LGA plays a huge role in AE. Also with DL's presence there and being able to offer stunning connections I don't see AA going after thing airport too aggressively.

ORD is going to play a vital role for AA, like many said before it is the most logical Asian hub they can have without opning some new hub. I feel like they should do a JFK approach from ORD just focus on long-haul to Asia, and domestically focus on the large business centers of North America. Also, don't try to expand too much on Europe from ORD because they would just be reinforcing JFK.

Some may say LAX is much better for Asia, but all of the competition from Los Angles, and SFO can be considered into this because they still play the same role of a West Coast Asian gateway for most US carriers, and vice-versa.


I think I read that there are 7 carriers on LAX-NRT, but who knows with AA's cost being brought down they could possibly compete on routes like this.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-01-25 10:54:50 and read 3923 times.

Quoting Boeing773ER (Reply 7):
I think I read that there are 7 carriers on LAX-NRT, but who knows with AA's cost being brought down they could possibly compete on routes like this.

The LAX to NRT has ANA, JAL, Korean Air, Singapore Airlines, AA, UA and DL. There are NO LCC here, they all offer Business Class and only DL doesn't offer First Class. The JAL & ANA 777-300ER's are among the most luxurious 777 around, even better then Emirates.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: ckfred
Posted 2012-01-25 13:32:00 and read 3776 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
The next hub likely to be dismantled is ORD although I don't think it would happen soon, at least not for now. Only these markets are likely to be kept on the mainline network out of ORD:

Domestic:
BOS, LGA, MIA definitely, DFW definitely, SAN, LAX definitely, SFO, SJC and SEA. American mainline will always have at least one daily flight to all of the above major business centers.
All other domestic markets: Eagle only.

International:
NRT and LHR on their own metal, not just code share with JL and BA.

Cutting back at ORD would be foolish. Remember that AA picked up a number of corporate contracts after the summer of 2000, when UA's pilots staged their sick-out. People were fed up and switched to AA, and a number of businesses switched their flying, when contracts came up for renewal.

If AA were to significantly shrink ORD, then it risks losing corporate contracts to UA.

AA will have lower costs, post Chapter 11. The A319s that are scheduled to be delivered, starting in 2013, will allow AA to serve markets that need more capacity than it can offer with the Embrears and CRJ 700s, but don't need MD-80s.

Presumably, AA will get a contract with the APA that will bring Embrear 170/190 or Canadair CRJ 900/C-Series into service for AA (either flying with a regional or as mainline). That will allow AA to offer a competitive product against UA. WN, etc. at a competitve cost.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: AADC10
Posted 2012-01-25 17:27:52 and read 3572 times.

I doubt AA will shrink much in Ch. 11. The fleet will shrink slightly due to lease rejections but like UA and DL, most of the routes will be kept with reduction in frequency on some and handing to Eagle and other regionals some smaller routes.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
Sone shifts will happen at ORD but AA dehubbing is highly unlikely. ORD is the only city for AA to launch more flights to Asia. LAX is a heavily fished ocean, DFW is too far south as an effective gateway to China.

AA will hang on to ORD as a hub but China has been almost as poor yielding as India. Keeping ORD as a hub just for China does not make any sense. There are tons of flights to China from LAX but almost all of the USA can connect there. ORD can only be reached from east of the Rockies. Most of the demand however is still from the west.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-25 17:37:29 and read 3546 times.

sadly, that was over 10 years ago. Many of those contracts have long since returned to UA. and the pace accelerated when UA and CO merged. DL has also been eating into AA's corporate contracts in all big cities, Chicago included.

i

Quoting ckfred (Reply 9):
Cutting back at ORD would be foolish. Remember that AA picked up a number of corporate contracts after the summer of 2000, when UA's pilots staged their sick-out. People were fed up and switched to AA, and a number of businesses switched their flying, when contracts came up for renewal.

If AA were to significantly shrink ORD, then it risks losing corporate contracts to UA.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-01-26 02:11:00 and read 3300 times.

I think AA has to shrink quite a bit temporarily but can bring the capacity back as the fuel efficent planes come back in. They can simply reduce frequencies and get more mad dogs to the grave yard and the faster the better. Its likely most of those flights are the ones really burning cash, if they are loosing money they have to reduce frequencies. Frequencies can be slightly reduced and more mad dogs retired nothing drastic as shrinking destinations or anything. If they even slashed just one flight a day or a few frequencies a week from some of the frequent routes they could retire quite a fuel fuel guzzling mad dogs. I dont think we will see AA shrink too much though but they need to retire more mad dogs fast so frequencies are the key. Of course there are negatives to anyway AA could shrink but they have to temporarily i think shrink even more to survive for the long term. They do need to make it until all of those more fuel efficient planes come in and can only bleed so heavily

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2012-01-26 08:56:50 and read 3102 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
The next hub likely to be dismantled is ORD although I don't think it would happen soon, at least not for now.

It may be right-sized, but there is no way ORD is not going to be there. With new labor contracts and A319's, there is no reason AA can't effectively compete with UA.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-26 15:26:25 and read 2894 times.

Get ready for a shocking development shortly...

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: United1
Posted 2012-01-26 15:36:44 and read 2872 times.

Quoting JasonCRH (Reply 14):
Get ready for a shocking development shortly...

Can you define shortly?

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-26 15:59:08 and read 2823 times.

keep an eye out

Quoting United1 (Reply 15):
Can you define shortly?

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: ckfred
Posted 2012-01-26 16:44:24 and read 2752 times.

Quoting JasonCRH (Reply 14):
Get ready for a shocking development shortly...

Would this be something that would get the attention of the Chicago Tribune? The Tribune hasn't covered the AMR/AA/Eagle bankruptcy as closely as it covered the UA bankruptcy, since UA is headquartered in Chicago and has always had more employees in Chicagoland.

Would this be something that would be buried inside the business section, or would it make the front page?

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-26 20:21:55 and read 2590 times.

perhaps... but it's not something that will impact Chicago directly.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 17):
Would this be something that would get the attention of the Chicago Tribune? The Tribune hasn't covered the AMR/AA/Eagle bankruptcy as closely as it covered the UA bankruptcy, since UA is headquartered in Chicago and has always had more employees in Chicagoland.

Would this be something that would be buried inside the business section, or would it make the front page?

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: United1
Posted 2012-01-26 20:52:40 and read 2518 times.

Quoting JasonCRH (Reply 18):
perhaps... but it's not something that will impact Chicago directly.

Well the major thing that happens tomorrow is AA hits 60 days in BK protection. At that point AA has to file paperwork to accept current terms on aircraft and pay off any past due amounts, ask for additional time to work out agreements with the lenders or reject the aircraft. So far AA has filed paperwork making choices on about 2/3rds of the fleet the rest of it has to come tomorrow.

[Edited 2012-01-26 20:54:43]

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-01-26 21:02:29 and read 2493 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
NRT and LHR on their own metal, not just code share with JL and BA.

They just pulled JFKNRT. Guess JL will suffice for now.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-27 05:31:02 and read 2279 times.

that's it!

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
They just pulled JFKNRT. Guess JL will suffice for now.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2012-01-27 05:43:11 and read 2254 times.

Quoting JasonCRH (Reply 21):
that's it!

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
They just pulled JFKNRT. Guess JL will suffice for now.

That's not terribly surprising, assuming they are committed to JFK-HND. Now, I wonder what AA will do with that NRT slot. They will still have 2x daily DFW-NRT as well as 1x daily ORD-NRT and LAX-NRT. Perhaps they will reinstate the 2nd daily ORD-NRT, or maybe they will start that oft-rumored MIA-NRT flight.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: JasonCRH
Posted 2012-01-27 06:57:03 and read 2181 times.

AA never flew 2x daily ORD-NRT. That was UA.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
That's not terribly surprising, assuming they are committed to JFK-HND. Now, I wonder what AA will do with that NRT slot. They will still have 2x daily DFW-NRT as well as 1x daily ORD-NRT and LAX-NRT. Perhaps they will reinstate the 2nd daily ORD-NRT, or maybe they will start that oft-rumored MIA-NRT flight.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-01-27 07:12:35 and read 2144 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
or maybe they will start that oft-rumored MIA-NRT flight.

I doubt it with that 777. That route needs a 787.

That 777 is probably bound for LHR or Latin America.

Topic: RE: How Far Will AA Shrink In BK?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-01-27 09:24:13 and read 2013 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 22):
That's not terribly surprising, assuming they are committed to JFK-HND. Now, I wonder what AA will do with that NRT slot. They will still have 2x daily DFW-NRT as well as 1x daily ORD-NRT and LAX-NRT. Perhaps they will reinstate the 2nd daily ORD-NRT, or maybe they will start that oft-rumored MIA-NRT flight.

JAL or CX will babysit it indefinitely or until AA is ready to use it. I suspect it will be needed when the 787s come online


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