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Topic: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-01 23:18:29 and read 22484 times.

In thread # 58 the following points were discussed:

* Brisbane Airport - expanded domestic services
* Jetstar capacity increases ex-MEL/OOL and cancellation of BNE-CHC
* Virgin Australia announces significant expansion of flying ex-BNE (with Alliance F100s)
* Melbourne Airport passenger growth
* QantasLink 717 schedules ex-Brisbane
* Royal Brunei increases Melbourne services to daily
* Foreign airline expansion in Australia
* Tiger Airways announces it is recommencing CNS services later in 2012
* Alliance Airlines 737-400 commences services
* A Virgin Australia 77W heads to AKL for schedule maintenance - first of many to come
* Second Sydney Airport and discussion on curfew
* Qantas and a possible new service to Berlin to coincide with AB's Oneworld membership
* Etihad deploys 77Ws on SYD-AUH due VA 77W scheduled maintenance
* Qatar Airways will now launch PER services with 77L equipment, in lieu of 332s
* Scoot Gold Coast services
* Air Asia X and its Gold Coast services
* Qantas aircraft leaving the fleet
* Long haul Qantas network - rumours of FRA/JFK being cut (weren't in the end)
* Air Mauritius will suspend its SYD/MEL services from June 2012
* Brisbane Airport growth for JAN12 - best since Jan 2008
* Air New Zealand announces Sunshine Coast-Auckland seasonal services from mid 2012
* Australia-South Africa air services - IASC has not extended QF/SA agreement past Dec 2012

On 17 February 2012, Air Australia was placed into voluntary administration. The Airline flew A320 aircraft from BNE-MEL/PHE/DPS, PER-DCN and A330 aircraft from BNE/MEL-HNL/HKT.


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[Edited 2012-03-01 23:36:21]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-01 23:33:31 and read 22474 times.

* Air Vanuatu is scaling back its operations to Melbourne - services between 05APR-21JUN and 07OCT-20DEC have been cancelled. The carrier will however operate nonstop flights from Port Vila during the peak school holiday periods

* Virgin Australia has announced it will add an additional Monday to Friday ATR service from Brisbane to Emerald from early April 2012. The Airline also plans to open a new lounge in Hobart according to a recent AusBT article

* Alliance Aviation Services Limited on 29JAN12 reported revenue for the half year ended 31 December 2011 of $84.7 million, a 45% increase over the previous corresponding period. Pro-forma EBITDA increased by 24% to $22.5 million. The Statutory NPAT for the period was $6.6 million. Alliance predominately operates contract FIFO flying and recently commenced F100 operations on behalf of Virgin Australia to ports such as Cairns and Newcastle

* Air Asia has confirmed it will suspend its Darwin - Bali/Denpasar services from April 2012. The last service is currently slated for Sunday 29 April 2012 (according to the online booking engine)

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-02 01:41:45 and read 22316 times.

The Air Vanuatu MEL service suspensions are hardly unexpected.

Making it a seasonal non-stop flight makes sense.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-02 06:31:42 and read 22085 times.

Could someone help shed some light please. Last time I was at BNE I noticed that the Alliance F100's parked at the DJ terminal that where 'all white'

When QF had the wet lease of the F100's the tails were left in the Alliance scheme. With the all white tails, with DJ think this is a contractual arrangement ?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-02 14:17:00 and read 21941 times.

ZuluAlpha from what i have been told re the white F100's .They will be painted in Virgin Australia livery shortly.

Alliance and Virgin both decided not to get them painted initially, as Alliance are down 2 aircraft in their fleet and if there was a maintenance issue with one of the other aircraft in their fleet , then that aircraft would then have to be replaced by a Virgin branded F100 even if it was doing a fifo to Telfer.

Since then Alliance have acquired a 737-400 to help relieve this problem and shortly another newly acquired F100 will come out of pre service maintenance.This then will fill the fleet void.

I would expect both will be painted in 2 months time.

And to answer your other question yes this lease arrangement is different to the Qantas-Alliance one.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: vhebb
Posted 2012-03-02 16:11:06 and read 21832 times.

Some QF fleet news:

*New B73H VH-VZY has been delivered.

*B734 VH-TJW has been retired and ferried to Victorville.

*B717-200 VH-NXR will arrive into Australia this month, the next B717 VH-NXJ will arrive in April/May.

Thanks

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-02 16:17:25 and read 21823 times.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 4):
yes this lease arrangement is different to the Qantas-Alliance one

I was under the impression that this agreement was short-term to cover maintenance on the E90s. Is it actually more permanent than that? Is the relationship more like the one with SkyWest regarding the AT7s?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-02 16:29:07 and read 21805 times.

Skytrans has confirmed it will commence services with its Dash 8 aircraft from Toowoomba to Sydney in July, with fares/schedule available from April.

http://www.skytrans.com.au/PDFs/MR_Mar_2012.pdf

Initially the Airline will commence 6 weekly services before moving to 10 weekly services later in 2012.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-02 21:01:13 and read 21620 times.

^^ Lets hope that is a success. Certainly opens up new markets for many.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ADDICT4QF
Posted 2012-03-03 02:22:59 and read 21416 times.

Does anyone know what AB flights QF is going to codeshare on, and from what date they can be booked on the qantas website?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-03 14:32:28 and read 21154 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 6):

I was trying to find the article in the Australian newspaper a few months ago, which stated the F100's will operate to routes in Queensland for 1 year and then will be replaced by new build 738's .

Not sure if this was mentioned but the 6th ATR is on it's way today to BNE.

Cheers.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-03 16:02:34 and read 21071 times.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 10):
which stated the F100's will operate to routes in Queensland for 1 year and then will be replaced by new build 738's

Oh OK, interesting. But why is it that they're not using E90s? Lack of aircraft availability?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-03 18:20:04 and read 20933 times.

To allow extra flights and capacity out of BNE above and beyond what the current fleet of 737/E190's can offer.
Remember VA have just added a extra 8 flights out of BNE.

[Edited 2012-03-03 18:20:44]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-03 19:20:25 and read 20876 times.

Quoting ADDICT4QF (Reply 9):

Does anyone know what AB flights QF is going to codeshare on, and from what date they can be booked on the qantas website?

As of Friday, there were no codeshare flights loaded into the QF reservation system. As to the flights they will codeshare with, it would only be a guess. Maybe where the common ports are e.g. BKK and SIN

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-03-03 19:59:49 and read 20815 times.

Quoting vhebb (Reply 5):

I saw VH-TJW parked on the freighter ramp in HNL on the 1st of March...

EK413

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: alangirvan
Posted 2012-03-03 20:13:24 and read 20794 times.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8):
Does anyone know what AB flights QF is going to codeshare on, and from what date they can be booked on the qantas website?

This seems rather complicated. I have seen on a thread that AirBerlin is cancelling their Munich to Bangkok flights, so that will not be the code share. Then, we see that AirBerlin now has a codeshare deal with Etihad - AB flies Berlin to Abu Dhabi, and these flights connect with EY flights to Australia. So, you might even have Virgin codesharing with AB before Qantas does.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ADDICT4QF
Posted 2012-03-05 01:35:47 and read 20205 times.

...and they are cancelling TXL-BKK and DUS-BKK from the 28th and 29th of March 2012 respectively.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-05 03:36:58 and read 20072 times.

Quoting vhebb (Reply 5):
*New B73H VH-VZY has been delivered.

I believe that VH-VZZ is also due for delivery in April. That will take the QF 738 fleet count to 58 with 12 more on order for delivery through to late 2013.

Also for those interested, the remaining QF 744's will be start conversions on the following dates;

VH-OEE - March 29th
VH-OJU - May 10th
VH-OEF - June 29th
VH-OJS - August 5th
VH-OJT - September 13th

So all of the 744's to be converted will be done by the end of this year. (Dates sourced from Australian Aviation Magazine)

Given the decision on South Africa I'd have thought QF would need to retain 1 or 2 more 744's to cover the loss of codeshare rights on the PER-JNB route from the beginning of next year.

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 13):
As of Friday, there were no codeshare flights loaded into the QF reservation

QF and Air Berlin have not yet lodged any applications for codeshare flights with the relevant Australian authorities.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 9MMPD
Posted 2012-03-05 03:44:28 and read 20054 times.

Quoting sydscott (Reply 17):
Given the decision on South Africa I'd have thought QF would need to retain 1 or 2 more 744's to cover the loss of codeshare rights on the PER-JNB route from the beginning of next year.

I wonder if they will keep VH-OJP, OJQ since they are the next two youngest 744s for it.

Is there any slack in the A332 International fleet to queeze in PER-JNB-PER (or PER-JNB-CPT-JNB-PER)?
Since I think that route would most likey go A332

Is there any slack in the A380 fleet for a PER-JNB-PER service? It would be great to get the A380 from MEL or SYD to PER then onwards to JNB.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-05 03:55:17 and read 20041 times.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 18):
Since I think that route would most likey go A332

So would I, but they really don't have enough planes to send an A332 either.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 18):
Is there any slack in the A380 fleet for a PER-JNB-PER service? It would be great to get the A380 from MEL or SYD to PER then onwards to JNB.

A stop in PER a few times a week is the most likely outcome in the short term, in my opinion. Don't forget that QF's flight out of SYD will see a drop in numbers without SA's support, so they will be looking at ways to retain daily 744's.

It's impossible to know if QF has any slack in the A380 fleet, given that we don't know their plans for frames 13 and 14 and how that might impact on existing services (ie QF127/8 to HKG). But if they've earmarked JNB for the A380 out of SYD then I'd expect to see it in PER  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: JQflightie
Posted 2012-03-05 04:21:24 and read 20002 times.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 18):

good one   PER (WAC) cope with a A380 ... they can bearly cope with an A330..  
There will be slack in the A332 fleet when AKL-LAX ends and a re-shuffle of routes.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: BAeRJ100
Posted 2012-03-05 04:48:01 and read 19972 times.

The word going around PER the last few months actually has been that QF would use an A380 to JNB, originating from either MEL or SYD (as was speculated above). The only issue related to WAC with the international terminal is the a/c would have to be boarded via the tarmac, as they don't have any bridge bays that are wide enough for an A380 (this is set to change within a couple years).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-03-05 13:04:41 and read 19832 times.

I forgot to mention there was a Air Australia A320 on a remote stand in HNL on the 1st of March... Was the aircraft on a ferry positioning flight???

EK413

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-05 14:39:30 and read 19764 times.

Quoting BAeRJ100 (Reply 21):
The word going around PER the last few months actually has been that QF would use an A380 to JNB, originating from either MEL or SYD (as was speculated above).

I doubt they will use an A380 on PER-JNB. What I think is more likely is that QF uses a mix of 744's doing SYD-PER-JNB and the A380's on SYD-JNB. In that way they can maintain daily service from Sydney with say 4 direct A380's a week and then send the 744 on SYD-PER-JNB on the days the A380 doesn't operate. That would be a more likely scenario.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 19):
It's impossible to know if QF has any slack in the A380 fleet, given that we don't know their plans for frames 13 and 14 and how that might impact on existing services (ie QF127/8 to HKG). But if they've earmarked JNB for the A380 out of SYD then I'd expect to see it in PER

The A380 on QF 127/128 was made possible by frames 11 and 12. So I'd say that takes care of their existing fleet. But don't forget that they still have Nancy Bird Walton that has been sitting on the Tarmac in SIN for a year or so that is coming back into service shortly. So they will have a spare A380 up their sleeve it the need one.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-05 17:48:35 and read 19666 times.

Wouldn't a W routing on a 744 make more sense for PER-JNB than SYD-PER-JNB? I.e. SYD-JNB-PER-JNB-SYD. Perhaps adding a SYD-PER 744 flight to position the flight crew, but probably not.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 18):
Is there any slack in the A332 International fleet to queeze in PER-JNB-PER (or PER-JNB-CPT-JNB-PER)?
Since I think that route would most likey go A332

Not a bad idea. It also replaces the feed into CPT which is lost without SA.

If it is prioritised highly enough there would be enough A332s.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2012-03-05 17:55:47 and read 19831 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 24):
Not a bad idea. It also replaces the feed into CPT which is lost without SA.

BA franchise Comair operate CPT-JNB, so QF would still have feed. However, I find it hard to believe that they would put the A380 on the route, QF are already moaning that without the cozy tie up with SA they won't be able to sustain the exisiting capacity they have on the route so it seems unlikely that they would be in a hurry to upsize.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-05 18:08:51 and read 19759 times.

There's also no A380s free for the route.

I never meant that was a possibility.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-05 19:16:35 and read 20000 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 26):
There's also no A380s free for the route.

There is Nancy Bird Walton which is currently unutilised.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-05 20:17:07 and read 19927 times.

Wasn't that required to up the SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights to daily, and allow maintenance?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Airvan00
Posted 2012-03-05 20:40:05 and read 19898 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 28):
Wasn't that required to up the SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights to daily, and allow maintenance?

SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights are already daily. With the return of VH-OQA, maybe that will allow SYD-HKG to become daily.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-05 21:04:20 and read 19866 times.

I suppose they could go back to 744s for SYD-HKG if there was a reason to use the A380 on JNB flights. Which there isn't, really.

Interestingly SYD-HKG is Thu-Sun so maintenance appears to be concentrated Mon-Wed.

Is Nancy Bird Walton (VH-OQA) actually back in service? Hadn't heard that it was.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 9MMPD
Posted 2012-03-05 21:33:24 and read 19821 times.

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 29):
SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights are already daily. With the return of VH-OQA, maybe that will allow SYD-HKG to become daily.

So that accounts for frammes 1 - 12 in the A380 fleet then we have frames 13 & 14 due so where will they go?

Quoting sydscott (Reply 23):
I doubt they will use an A380 on PER-JNB. What I think is more likely is that QF uses a mix of 744's doing SYD-PER-JNB and the A380's on SYD-JNB. In that way they can maintain daily service from Sydney with say 4 direct A380's a week and then send the 744 on SYD-PER-JNB on the days the A380 doesn't operate. That would be a more likely scenario.

Wouldn't it be the other way around? Send the A380 via Perth with its larger Y and J cabin?

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 20):
good one PER (WAC) cope with a A380 ... they can bearly cope with an A330..
There will be slack in the A332 fleet when AKL-LAX ends and a re-shuffle of routes.

Yes but I thought the freed up A332s would fly SYD - BKK replacing the QF1/2 service as well as more trans con flights replacing the current QF581/580 744 service between PER & SYD.

The new international pier and other works to the International Terminal in Perth should help but thats still 2 and a bit years away from completion

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-05 21:35:15 and read 19822 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 28):
Wasn't that required to up the SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights to daily, and allow maintenance?

Nope the LAX & LHR flights are already daily. Nancy is Surplus at the moment.

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 29):
SYD/MEL-LHR/LAX A380 flights are already daily. With the return of VH-OQA, maybe that will allow SYD-HKG to become daily.

That wouldn't surprise me. If they do make SYD-HKG daily that'll just about round out possible A380 routes unless the mix it up on DFW.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 30):
Is Nancy Bird Walton (VH-OQA) actually back in service? Hadn't heard that it was.

Nope it's still under repair in Singapore. Last reports had it coming back to Australia this month but who knows.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-05 22:09:09 and read 19795 times.

To be clear... QF needs 10 A380's to run LHR/LAX at daily from SYD/MEL. Frame number 12 was used to open up HKG, but the fleet is currently stretched (just look at how many QF11/12's are 744's over the next couple of weeks, I assume because of scheduled maintenance).

If QF wanted to send the A380 to JNB, I imagine they could do that 3-4 times a week with the return of Nancy Bird. The alternative is to revert to 744's into HKG, but I doubt that would happen (given the advertising that's plastered across HKG promoting the service and the fact it's an A380. Bit of a let down if they scrap it after 6 months).

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 31):
Wouldn't it be the other way around? Send the A380 via Perth with its larger Y and J cabin?

PER isn't properly equipped to handle the A380, from what others have said. In any case, QF would probably want to utilise the A380's increased efficiency on the longer flight, having the stop in the 744 will probably save them a decent amount of fuel overall.

But they still have a long time to figure this all out. The agreement with SA doesn't end tomorrow, and the fleet will look different down the track.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Airvan00
Posted 2012-03-05 23:38:30 and read 19662 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 33):

(just look at how many QF11/12's are 744's over the next couple of weeks, I assume because of scheduled maintenance


But on most of those days 107/108 becomes the A 380 flight

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-06 00:45:23 and read 19586 times.

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 34):
But on most of those days 107/108 becomes the A 380 flight

Nope. QF107/8 only becomes an A380 when QF11/12 doesn't operate -- that's twice in the next month.

There are regular periods of mixed operation on QF11 -- generally in the first half of each month. QF11 is a 744 every second day for the first two weeks of March. QF107 continues to operate on these days, as a 744. The same periods of scheduled mixed operation have been happening for the past 4-5 months (aside from the peak holiday period).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Airvan00
Posted 2012-03-06 12:04:47 and read 19238 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 35):

Nope. QF107/8 only becomes an A380 when QF11/12 doesn't operate -- that's twice in the next month.

I must have got lucky, those where the two I saw.
Well it looks like it is a maintaince backlog ( unless of course the forward booking are so poor then QF is really in trouble)
So back to topic, VH-OQA's return to service will only cover maintaince and we won't see any new exotic destinations like JNB for the A380 untill the next delivery (in 2013)

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-06 13:02:25 and read 19201 times.

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 36):
So back to topic, VH-OQA's return to service will only cover maintaince and we won't see any new exotic destinations like JNB for the A380 untill the next delivery (in 2013)

That's what I would expect as well.

We also have to remember that A380's 13 and 14 are supposed to be the first one's in the new QF 3 class layout on the A380 which is probably a better fit for a lower frequency, but higher capacity service to JNB from SYD while the 744 goes from PER.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-06 15:19:14 and read 19081 times.

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 36):
So back to topic, VH-OQA's return to service will only cover maintaince and we won't see any new exotic destinations like JNB for the A380 untill the next delivery (in 2013)

Agreed.

Quoting sydscott (Reply 37):
We also have to remember that A380's 13 and 14 are supposed to be the first one's in the new QF 3 class layout on the A380

I'd have thought it would make more sense for QF to scrap the plans for the three class A380's for now -- it's going to cause a lot of inflexibility in the fleet if there are two aircraft that are totally different to the rest. The only exception I can think of would be if frames 13 and 14 (being more capable than the rest of the fleet) were to be dedicated to a single route (ie DFW).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-06 15:29:24 and read 19072 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 38):
The only exception I can think of would be if frames 13 and 14 (being more capable than the rest of the fleet) were to be dedicated to a single route (ie DFW).

That is practically certain.

What else would they do? Fly the 787 there on a higher frequency?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Ben175
Posted 2012-03-06 15:48:40 and read 19068 times.

Wait, is it confirmed QF will start PER-JNB or is it just speculation because of the ending agreement with SA?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-06 16:25:38 and read 19028 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 39):
That is practically certain.

What else would they do? Fly the 787 there on a higher frequency?

Agreed. DFW will definitely be ready for an A380 by then although it'll be interesting see if they try something like MEL-DWF when the 789 appears. But that won't be for a while yet.

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 40):
Wait, is it confirmed QF will start PER-JNB or is it just speculation because of the ending agreement with SA?

It's speculation for now. QF haven't announced anything other then their annoyance that their cosy duopoly has to come to an end.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-06 21:27:34 and read 18807 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 39):
That is practically certain.

What else would they do? Fly the 787 there on a higher frequency?

I'm not sure anything is practically certain with QF these days...

Frames 13 and 14 are due early next year, DFW is only going to daily in July. I know that there has been a big growth in this route over the past year since it launched, but QF will be wary of dumping too much supply on this route too quickly -- it would be extremely damaging to their profits on this route if fares were to drop. What they want to do is build up to near full daily 744's, then retain the higher fare level that has been created by constraining supply as they move to the more efficient aircraft -- that's where their margin is coming from. If QF were to send the A380 and fares were to drop 10%, their profit would probably be wiped out.

QF could easily hold the 744 on SYD-DFW in the long term, and supplement it with flights out of BNE or MEL on the 787 if they want to increase supply. The only issue being the stop in BNE on the return, but that could be redirected to AKL (or even somewhere like HNL if a direct BNE flight was to start up to facilitate connecting traffic).

Having said that, I do think the A380 is likely for DFW, maybe not early next year but certainly soon. QF could play around with frames 13 and 14 for a year (HKG, NRT, JNB, FRA etc) while DFW builds up strength then do an A380/744 swap.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-06 21:44:37 and read 18787 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 39):
What else would they do? Fly the 787 there on a higher frequency?

There was some speculation (note the word!) on here a while back that they may well do this. Apparently over 50% of passengers on QF8 deplane in BNE, either as their final destination or to connect to somewhere else in Aus with 1 stop.

(Totally irrelevant aside: when I last arrived in CBR on QF953 there were a surprising number of cases which had started their journey somewhere in the USA, flown to DFW with AA, and then connected to CBR via BNE)

Therefore it was suggested that going with 2x 787 might not be a bad idea: one SYD-DFW for SYD O&D and the other BNE-DFW for connecting passengers, effectively using BNE as a DXB style hub (after all, with conveniently timed connecting flights to MEL, CBR, ADL, PER, DRW, CNS, TSV, ROK, MKY, GLT and goodness knows which other small towns in QLD, BNE isn't a bad place to hub). Of course the counter-argument is that once the route is capable of going DFW-SYD non-stop, why not just run two daily flights (or use an A380) to SYD.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-06 21:47:00 and read 18790 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 42):
QF could easily hold the 744 on SYD-DFW in the long term

Very unlikely. The load restrictions reduce the revenue potential, and the diversions are pretty expensive.

They would be more likely to reduce frequency than keep the 744 on this route IMO.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-06 22:38:34 and read 18734 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 42):
Frames 13 and 14 are due early next year

According to the A380 production list they're not due until the 3rd quarter of 2013.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 44):
They would be more likely to reduce frequency than keep the 744 on this route IMO.

Alan Joyce has stated that DFW is an ideal 787 route and he's right. QF can keep their higher capacity A380's and 744's plying the LAX route while they use the 789 to fly SYD/MEL/BNE - DFW. Even if you put an A380 on SYD-DFW and either make the second SYD-LAX a 789 or hand it over to an AA 77W/787, then I still think that makes sense as an ultimate QF end game in DFW. But either way I think DFW will only grow for QF.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-06 22:56:04 and read 18695 times.

Quoting sydscott (Reply 45):
Alan Joyce has stated that DFW is an ideal 787 route and he's right.

Did he say from SYD though? I wouldn't be surprised if this route is performing strongly enough in 2013 to have a daily A380 SYD-DFW + 3pw 787 BNE-DFW + 3pw 787 MEL-DFW.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-12 19:26:10 and read 17776 times.

Effective 14APR12 QantasLink (Cobham) will begin operating the 717-200 on Saturday Brisbane-Alice Springs-Brisbane services. Sunday services will continue to be operated by the 737-800. This move is no doubt to facilitate the swapping of 717 aircraft in ASP/PER.

Saturday QF846 SYD/DRW and Sunday QF829 DRW/SYD services have been cancelled for the peak period (service reduces to 6x weekly).

Cheers

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-12 20:45:50 and read 17679 times.

BITRE DFW-BNE,SYD figures are out with BNE now getting 66% of pax terminating,and SYD getting 34%.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-12 20:54:49 and read 17656 times.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 48):
BITRE DFW-BNE,SYD figures are out with BNE now getting 66% of pax terminating,and SYD getting 34%.

Hmm, so is there a chance of the 744ER continuing to fly ???-DFW-BNE after the 2013 A380 arrives?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-12 21:11:09 and read 17641 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 49):
Hmm, so is there a chance of the 744ER continuing to fly ???-DFW-BNE after the 2013 A380 arrives?


Not if the connecting passengers can continue to access one stop DFW-Australia via SYD. The local BNE market is easily less than 20% of the total traffic (probably closer to 10-15%), and can be easily serviced one-stop via SYD. There would be virtually no impact for pax to MEL, PER, ADL etc (aside from a slightly longer flight time, which might be offset by the larger number of connecting options in SYD).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-13 04:39:10 and read 17328 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 50):
which might be offset by the larger number of connecting options in SYD

Where did you have in mind?

I'm pretty certain that the market from the USA to Cairns, Townsville and even Mackay is comfortably larger than the likes of Tamworth and Dubbo.

Other than the NSW regional cities I can't think of anywhere you can fly to from SYD that you can't from BNE.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-13 04:53:06 and read 17390 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 51):
Where did you have in mind?

I'm pretty certain that the market from the USA to Cairns, Townsville and even Mackay is comfortably larger than the likes of Tamworth and Dubbo.

Other than the NSW regional cities I can't think of anywhere you can fly to from SYD that you can't from BNE.

Maybe, but you would have higher frequencies (admittedly, wouldn't make huge difference) to the large capitals (PER/MEL/ADL) and better coverage to Tasmania, but I would agree that the coverage out of BNE would actually be better for American tourists with better services to FNQ

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: CXfirst
Posted 2012-03-13 04:54:29 and read 17386 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 51):
Where did you have in mind?

I'm pretty certain that the market from the USA to Cairns, Townsville and even Mackay is comfortably larger than the likes of Tamworth and Dubbo.

Other than the NSW regional cities I can't think of anywhere you can fly to from SYD that you can't from BNE.

What he is saying is that even though it is shorter flying through BNE to the likes of PER, ADL, MEL, etc. The additional flights per day from SYD in comparison to BNE increases the chances of a better connection, offsetting the advantage of the shorter flying time through BNE.

-CXfirst

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-13 06:07:15 and read 17302 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 51):
Where did you have in mind?
Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 52):
higher frequencies

  

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 53):
. The additional flights per day from SYD in comparison to BNE increases the chances of a better connection, offsetting the advantage of the shorter flying time through BNE.

  

For example, you would arrive in PER from DFW faster flying through SYD (assuming a 6-6:15am arrival) than BNE. You'd get into ADL almost two hours earlier flying through SYD. It's not a major issue in the greater scheme of things, but it is something to consider when looking at the impact of potentially moving the flight nonstop to SYD.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-13 07:53:08 and read 17244 times.

Another thing to possibly consider is Queensland and it's mining. With the flights to GLT, EMD, MOV and RMA with the connections ex Texas (especially Houston (remember when this flight was first launched, someone mentioned that there was a Massive QF billboard in Houston for the flight to Australia)). I know that Texas is mostly about oil and Queensland is about mineral reserves, but it is a common thread.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: sydscott
Posted 2012-03-13 13:52:52 and read 17142 times.

An interesting tidbit from the IASC. This is the response of Qantas to Virgin attempting to transfer Indonesia capacity from the current Virgin Airlines to the new Virgin International Holding Company in order to facilitate their re-structure and allow the domestic to carrier to be 100% foreign owned.

http://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/files/4689.pdf

It'll be interesting to see the Virgin response.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-13 14:34:19 and read 17119 times.

It's terrific that BNE is getting 66% of DFW terminating passengers to SYD's 34%, but of course that is probably a mixture which I will arbitrarily guess looks something like:

Passengers to MEL - 20 out of 66 (of whom 18 are Australian)
Passengers to SE Queensland - 10 out of 66 - 1/3 the number to Sydney, which is probably generous (9 out of 10 Australian)
Passengers to other Australian destinations - 12 out of 66 (10 out of 12 Australian)
Passengers to Cairns - 24 out of 66 (22 of them US tourists).

If my guess has any accuracy at all, is there any specific reason why the aircraft should refuel at BNE rather than CNS? Couldn't the flights be coordinated so that passengers to BNE and MEL could change at CNS rather than BNE?

I guess that I'm arguing the following hypothetical figures, based on relative population and inbound tourist demand:

Australians returning to MEL - 17/66
Australians returning to SE Qld - 9/66
Australians returning to CNS - 2/66
Australians returning to other Australian cities - 10/66
Australians returning to SYD - 17/34

Americans going to MEL - 3/66
Americans going to SE Qld - 1/66
Americans going to CNS - 22/66 (because they practically all have to use QF/JQ)
Americans going to other Australian cities - 2/66
Americans going to SYD - 17/34 (I'm assuming that many going just to SYD choose UA or DL or HA instead).


So Brisbane's figures look terrific, but when you try to break it down, I wonder why BNE is a better stop than CNS? Obviously I may be overstating the CNS market, but every Australia travel brochure I've ever seen in the USA contains Sydney and the Great Barrier Reef and nothing else whatsoever.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-13 15:05:57 and read 17055 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 57):
If my guess has any accuracy at all, is there any specific reason why the aircraft should refuel at BNE rather than CNS?
http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=d...E=best&RANGE-COLOR=navy&MAP-STYLE=

The extra 171km involved? About 1/3 the extra of getting to SYD.

What's the alternate from CNS? If it is BNE then that is more reserves needing to be carried than flights to BNE which probably have an alternate of SYD.

It's also 1-2 hours longer in flying time to get to nearly every destination for those not getting off in CNS.

Is that enough reasons?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-13 17:00:16 and read 16968 times.

The company TQ i used to work for most of my working life brought out a group of famil people including business leaders and government people,travel agents,DFW airport personnel including their CEO.They commented that Australia Zoo ,Barrier Reef,Queensland open spaces,the friendliness of the people, the beaches and the wildlife and the restaurants were the major drawing points of packaging BNE for Texans. Australia Zoo is massive for them.

They were extremely impressed with QLD.They believe it is a lot like home with the climate,sunshine,beef cattle but also offers diversity such as the reef and the hospitality of the people.I know they want it to remain a non stop destination.

I dont have the stats and figures anymore, but i can assure you that they will be available thru TQ shortly on what Americans using this flight regard as their main port of call and reason for their visit .I would believe BNE will remain with some flight frequency or mayby CNS will commence ??

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: jetfuel
Posted 2012-03-13 17:03:42 and read 16951 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 57):
If my guess has any accuracy at all, is there any specific reason why the aircraft should refuel at BNE rather than CNS? Couldn't the flights be coordinated so that passengers to BNE and MEL could change at CNS rather than BNE?

100% makes sense

Quoting thegeek (Reply 58):
What's the alternate from CNS?

TSV

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-13 17:41:58 and read 16931 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 57):
If my guess has any accuracy at all, is there any specific reason why the aircraft should refuel at BNE rather than CNS? Couldn't the flights be coordinated so that passengers to BNE and MEL could change at CNS rather than BNE?

Because you fail to account for the passengers that aren't tourists and would be inconvenienced by having to stop in CNS rather than Brisbane. It is a lot easier to connect to a flight to CNS from BNE than it is to connect to a flight to MEL/ADL/PER etc from CNS. BNE also has a lot more people wanting to fly to the USA (and as you point out the US dollar is very favourable for flights to the US).

Also, retiming the MEL/ADL etc flights is a great idea, until the DFW flight is delayed, then you are in trouble. Whereas in BNE you have the frequency of flights that it is very easy to hop onto the next flight.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-13 17:46:54 and read 16934 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 57):
Passengers to Cairns - 24 out of 66 (22 of them US tourists).

By that, 36% of people are going to CNS. That does seem a bit high, but overall I will give you credit for your numbers, overall they look pretty reasonable guesses. If we add in your 6% (overall) for SEQ, then that makes 42% of the aircraft.

I can't remember which configuration of the 74E they use, but I think it is 14F/66J/40W/187Y with F unsold. That gives 307 seats. 42% of 307 is 129. Given the possibility for connections to MEL, ADL, PER and CBR is still there at BNE, I would suggest that this makes BNE a prime 787 market. Of course we're talking about 2015 before mainline gets any, but I don't think it is far fetched.

And don't forget that US tourists to the reef tend to be VERY wealthy meaning that they should be able to sustain premium yields.

p.s. While the CNS figure seems high, I think if you include the Barrier Reef in its entirety it isn't. A large number of people would connect to PPP on JQ for the Whitsundays. Also, when I went to Heron Island in January I was astounded by the number of Americans there were, most of whom presumably flew to GLT (as did we).

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 59):
They were extremely impressed with QLD.They believe it is a lot like home


That's why I fell in love with SEQ the first time I went there, it reminded me of the USA!
 duck 

[Edited 2012-03-13 18:01:10]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-13 17:53:48 and read 16948 times.

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 60):
Quoting thegeek (Reply 58):
What's the alternate from CNS?

TSV

For a 747?

Also does it have customs/immigration full time? It doesn't have regular flights. Even ADL used to at least only bring in customs/immigration at times when international flights were scheduled.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: jetfuel
Posted 2012-03-13 18:10:02 and read 16923 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 63):
Quoting jetfuel (Reply 60):
Quoting thegeek (Reply 58):
What's the alternate from CNS?

TSV

For a 747?

Also does it have customs/immigration full time? It doesn't have regular flights. Even ADL used to at least only bring in customs/immigration at times when international flights were scheduled.

Strategic Airlines started twice weekly to Denpasar from 3 December 2010. It is Townsville International Airport, and the 11th busiest in the country. Customs/Immigration facilites are there although any diversion is normally for weather/emergency related issues which does not demand 24/7 customs service

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-13 22:49:59 and read 16746 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 57):
Obviously I may be overstating the CNS market, but every Australia travel brochure I've ever seen in the USA contains Sydney and the Great Barrier Reef and nothing else whatsoever.

I think you are. Sure CNS might make sense through the peak holiday periods, but that's only a few months a year. The additional time spent getting that 34% to SYD is a big factor (the additional 171km, plus the additional flight time to SYD from CNS), plus the inconvenience of moving around flights to facilitate connections for the 20% you think are headed for MEL.

Add the fact that there are no flights from CNS to PER (which I imagine could be important, given the resources links between WA and Texas), or ADL or a range of other cities, and the lack of reasonable alternative airports off the coast of Australia (TSV is still further from DFW than BNE is, and the more northerly routing to CNS makes NOU and NAN both very unrealistic alternatives) and it really doesn't work for me...

Plus other issues -- what happens if the flight is delayed by a few hours into CNS -- there are very few flights for pax to connect onto throughout the day, so QF faces the cost of accommodating stranded pax etc overnight.

The one big advantage is can see is the ability to roll the early morning QF921 CNS-SYD into the 744 flight. Aside from that, I think the disadvantages far outweigh the possible advantages. Actually, thinking about it, I think it's rather ludicrous that QF would send this flight through CNS (no offense intended, I've just come to that conclusion personally while typing this)...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Ben175
Posted 2012-03-14 03:05:19 and read 16555 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 65):
Add the fact that there are no flights from CNS to PER

JQ operates PER-CNS with a 320 a couple of times a week.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-14 03:14:00 and read 16558 times.

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 66):
JQ operates PER-CNS with a 320 a couple of times a week.

Bit of a drop down from the widebody services out of BNE, which themselves are a drop down from the A330's out of SYD. Would also involve a 12 hour layover -- it would be significantly faster and more comfortable to continue to SYD and connect there...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 747m8te
Posted 2012-03-14 05:46:37 and read 16372 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 63):
For a 747?

Also does it have customs/immigration full time? It doesn't have regular flights. Even ADL used to at least only bring in customs/immigration at times when international flights were scheduled.

TSV has had 747 ops in the past, and in more recent times has had 747 charters for sporting events.

Also it has immigration facilities...it used to be a fully functioning international airport, though recently the only activity its seen was the VC services to DPS.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 67):
Bit of a drop down from the widebody services out of BNE, which themselves are a drop down from the A330's out of SYD.

QF use the A330s on BNE-PER runs too!

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 61):
Also, retiming the MEL/ADL etc flights is a great idea, until the DFW flight is delayed, then you are in trouble. Whereas in BNE you have the frequency of flights that it is very easy to hop onto the next flight.

Exactly, BNE allows more flexability with schedules and to more destinations then CNS...

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 62):
p.s. While the CNS figure seems high, I think if you include the Barrier Reef in its entirety it isn't. A large number of people would connect to PPP on JQ for the Whitsundays. Also, when I went to Heron Island in January I was astounded by the number of Americans there were, most of whom presumably flew to GLT (as did we).

Indeed...the Barrier Reef doesn't just stop at CNS!

Looking at the bigger picture, BNE makes alot more sense then CNS!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-14 19:04:35 and read 16151 times.

Hmm, perhaps reserves would be less into CNS by more than enough to compensate for the additional distance.

Anyway, it is exceedingly unlikely to have DFW->CNS for reasons other posters have already mentioned. I'll add one more. There is no competitive advantage to that flight. QF already have a monopoly on DFW-BNE so even if there was enough demand it wouldn't be getting passengers from other carriers.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-17 07:14:11 and read 15709 times.

With the current debate regarding the QF8 inbound loadings and on carriage, I managed to source this information for the most currently flight. This is not an average. Just todays flight, arriving into BNE on Sunday morning.

This first and most important information is to show the passengers on board (POB) on the right hand side. For the DFW BNE sector there are 241 on board on the DFW BNE leg, and 39 on the BNE SYD leg. Also as a side piece of info, the rego, OEI, one of the reconfigured 744's

TRIP DETAILS FOR QFA008/17MAR125 AT 171032 UTC
ACFT PORT SKED(LT) BLX(Z) BLX(LT) A/B DELAY CODES/TIMES POB
VHOEI DFW 162200 170303 162203 00.03B 910/0003 241
BNE 180515 E 1925 E180525 00.10B
BNE 0645 39
SYD 0915
.
CONFIGURATION DFW / SYD - ACV - J58W36Y270
AIRCRAFT EX DFW - 744


The below information is all the outbound connections ex BNE, a total of 90 this day. There may be more on separate tickets that cannot be seen, the information can only be picked up when on carriage is on the same booking. With these figures, 151 pax are terminating in BNE (they may fly to other destinations in the days ahead). Today, PER has the most number of connecting passengers with 26 connecting pax.

**OUTBOUND PASSENGER LIST**
LPC/E/QF8/16MAR/DFWBNE
-----DFW----BNE---
DEP 2200 ----
-------------------
ARR ---- 0515+2
-------------------

--------------------------------
FL NUM DEPARR ARR DEP TOT
--------------------------------
-BNE-
OUTBOUND
QF0798 BNECNS ---- 0700 006
QF5928 BNECNS ---- 0725 002
QF0611 BNEMEL ---- 0755 020
QF0589 BNEPER ---- 0825 026
QF0661 BNEADL ---- 0830 008
QF0824 BNEDRW ---- 0830 003
QF0953 BNECBR ---- 0835 008
QF0981 BNEASP ---- 0840 003
QF2320 BNEBDB ---- 0850 001
QF0613 BNEMEL ---- 0855 003
QF0970 BNETSV ---- 0855 004
DJ1102 BNENTL ---- 0920 001
QF0782 BNECNS ---- 1000 001
QF5852 BNEHTI ---- 1000 001
QF0349 BNEPOM ---- 1010 003
ON0002 BNEINU ---- 0000 001

Thought I would add this to keep the debate going  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-17 07:56:41 and read 15664 times.

^^ Interesting analysis.

In the end though, once a plane can fly SYD-DFW-SYD, BNE will be dropped. It's the way QF operate and it has been their aim for the service.

In a few years after that, they will look at BNE/MEL options.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-17 11:14:24 and read 15603 times.

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 70):
With these figures, 151 pax are terminating in BNE

Wait, am I missing something here? 241 (DFW-BNE) minus 39 (BNE-SYD) minus 90 (connections) equals 112. Or is the 39 SYD pax considered separate to the DFW-BNE load?

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 70):
151 pax are terminating in BNE

This is the only thing I find hard to understand... Perhaps this is skewed (given it's a single day's data), but I see zero reason why so many more pax would have BNE as their final destination over SYD. There must either be an awful lot of additional connections ticketed on other itineraries, or some big tour group headed for the Gold Coast or something...

If BNE is picking up half the pax on each flight, then SYD-DFW makes no sense in the first place -- it would be BNE-DFW-BNE instead, with those 39 SYD pax connecting onto local flights... Not doubting the data or anything, I'm just trying to get my head around why BNE is so highly represented...

The loads don't look too good either, given it's a Friday departure from DFW and they're adding another two weekly flights quite soon.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: PITrules
Posted 2012-03-17 11:58:50 and read 15589 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 72):
Wait, am I missing something here? 241 (DFW-BNE) minus 39 (BNE-SYD) minus 90 (connections) equals 112. Or is the 39 SYD pax considered separate to the DFW-BNE load?

I'm corn-fused as well over this. I assume the total load out of DFW is 280 then?

Also, with only 39 people on the BNE-SYD leg, I'm curious how many local travelers got on in BNE.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-17 16:37:10 and read 15487 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 72):
Wait, am I missing something here? 241 (DFW-BNE) minus 39 (BNE-SYD) minus 90 (connections) equals 112. Or is the 39 SYD pax considered separate to the DFW-BNE load?

Yes QF002, you are correct, my apologies, I forgot to allow for the 39 pax to SYD remaining on the QF8. My apologies. Yes the loads are light that day, considering that this is one of the reconfigured 744's with 58J 36PY and 270Y even with the blocked seats that always exist on this route (I can get these numbers if I ask). The defence I will add is don't forget that DFW is wavering all landing fees, terminal fees and giving QF free advertisement for the first three years to the value of USD3 million. That was at 4 days of the week (maybe some new negation since going daily?). Which will take it to 2014 a year before QF should (hope?) get their 789's

But I will weigh into the 787 debate, and add that a 789 will slot in nicely maybe to double daily say daily to SYD, then the second daily to BNE (I'm live in BNE so I am biased).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-17 17:33:29 and read 15440 times.

QF002 what you cant get your head around and this applies to Qantas eccentric belief that all pax have to fly via SYD.
It makes sense to the Qantas officials, but here we have a case where another port has to be used ,(due to fuel reasons )and it shows off the miff that everyone wants to go via Sydney.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 747m8te
Posted 2012-03-17 18:13:04 and read 15406 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 72):
This is the only thing I find hard to understand... Perhaps this is skewed (given it's a single day's data), but I see zero reason why so many more pax would have BNE as their final destination over SYD. There must either be an awful lot of additional connections ticketed on other itineraries, or some big tour group headed for the Gold Coast or something...

Have you tried booking a return ticket from BNE to the US east coast...everything routes you through DFW, the LAX flight isn't even provided as an option unless you are sticking to the west coast. 150 pax flying from east coast US to BNE isn't that unrealistic. I do wonder if pax from SYD are put off by the stop over and would rather do their one stop services from east coast in LAX then do two stops and go via DFW and BNE.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-17 18:15:26 and read 15462 times.

Still, nearly half of the flight terminating in BNE is extraordinary.

Will there be incentive to have BNE-DFW-BNE once SYD-DFW-SYD is implemented? Seems like there might, but not if those loads become common. 241/364 isn't good.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-17 18:51:06 and read 15415 times.

Zulu Alpha, with respect your figures must be misleading.

You are saying that of passengers embarking at DFW:
- 90 connect onward on Qantas to other Australian cities from Brisbane.
- 39 are destined for Sydney.
- 112 disembark for the final time at BNE, presumably for southeast Queensland destinations.
- 123 seats out of 364 are not sold, leaving a load factor of 66%.

I expected that Sydney would not account for more than around 40% of demand, but if your figures are correct then Qantas can forget about an extended range 787 or A380 flying SYD-DFW-SYD.

Clearly what they need for SYD-DFW-SYD is actually an ATR-42 LR.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 75):
QF002 what you cant get your head around and this applies to Qantas eccentric belief that all pax have to fly via SYD.
It makes sense to the Qantas officials

Yes it does, and to some people living in Sydney. But in fact Sydney is the capital of a state which has been mal-administered for years and which has little more than coal as its mineral base, and to boot also has a very poor airport for international-domestic connections.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-17 19:30:55 and read 15379 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 78):
to boot also has a very poor airport for international-domestic connections.

I'm from Brisbane so don't flame me (!) but BNE is hardly SIN either!

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 76):
I do wonder if pax from SYD are put off by the stop over and would rather do their one stop services from east coast in LAX then do two stops and go via DFW and BNE.

There is that. The stopover basically means that only people going from secondary East Coast markets to SYD would take QF8. If you were going from ORD, NYC, IAD, MIA etc you would definitely go through LAX. Thinking about it, the only significant business centres on the EC which aren't linked to LAX with AA are BOS and ATL. And I wouldn't want to speculate what the demand is between GSO and SYD  
Quoting 747m8te (Reply 76):
Have you tried booking a return ticket from BNE to the US east coast...everything routes you through DFW, the LAX flight isn't even provided as an option unless you are sticking to the west coast

That's true. I got somewhat annoyed with QF's booking engine when it insisted I should go BNE-SYD-DFW-MIA when there is a perfectly decent one-stop option. The only time QF15/16 regularly feature to the East in in Y+ which always seems to sell well on QF7/8 and it therefore makes you go (eg) BNE-LAX-DFW-RDU rather than BNE-SYD-DFW-RDU

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-17 20:20:42 and read 15314 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 78):
Clearly what they need for SYD-DFW-SYD is actually an ATR-42 LR.

I don't think the data from a single flight is significant.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 48):
BITRE DFW-BNE,SYD figures are out with BNE now getting 66% of pax terminating,and SYD getting 34%.

This data shows in Nov-2011 from 17 flights.

4763 people flew DFW-BNE-SYD (76% average load factor assuming all reconfigured planes).
4767 people flew DFW-BNE ??
5217 people flew SYD-DFW (84% load factor with reconfigured, 99.96% with non-reconfigured)

Forum software isn't letting me attach the link.

Even the 84% is good.

I couldn't find info on people connecting in BNE?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-18 00:25:26 and read 15089 times.

In regards to the reasonably low load factor remember that the extra 2 flights from 4 to 6 a week only commenced 7-8 weeks ago.It will need to time to absorb .

Yes BITRE will only show SYD departing pax and not any connecting pax from other cities.

Cheers.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TN486
Posted 2012-03-18 03:19:59 and read 14867 times.

A photo of an ATR 72 destined for VA, currently with Danish Rego, taken at Maastricht in the Netherlands. Chris Grunwell was the photographer and permission granted to post, however I am not yet adept at uploading, so here is the link.
http://www.abpic.co.uk/photo/1337968/

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: jupiter2
Posted 2012-03-18 03:54:38 and read 14793 times.

Seriously, you guys read far too much into one flights stats. All that QF 8 flight told me was that there were probably 39 pax from the Dallas area going to the SYD area, all the rest is circumstantial unless you actually have the full details of each and every passenger, home address, occupation, business or leisure travel, etc, etc, etc.......
For all we know, there could have been a group of travel agents from Colombia going to the Gold Coast for a couple of days, then to the Hunter Valley, Canberra, Melbourne, then returning via DFW on the QF 7, would you all count them as pure SYD/DFW passengers if the BITRE stats only showed them as departing SYD to DFW ?
There is only one thing certain about this flight, when there is a suitable aircraft, QF will fly it DFW/SYD, in the mean time, QF will route as many passengers on it as they possibly can to make the flight commercially viable and if in the long run it makes commercial sense to have more than one flight from DFW, BNE should get first bite, as they have shown, if you use it correctly, BNE can be an affective connection city, even if it does have a crappy terminal system, just like Sydney.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-18 05:15:24 and read 14693 times.

What's the significance of Alice Springs listed in the Virgin Australia online booking engine? (under 'origin' - need to make a dummy booking first and wait for results to appear, then on left hand side choose 'origin'). Mistake or perhaps a sign of a pending announcement?

With ATRs set to replace E90s on further existing routes, Alice Springs would appear to be a perfect candidate for E90s.

Conversely, nothing may come about and it may be a simple mistake, however it still is of interest.

(Unusual/new ports such as Cloudbreak have been listed in the booking engine before, however these services were operated by Virgin partner Skywest and only listed temporarily. As far as I am aware, Skywest does not operate services to Alice Springs).

 

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-18 09:00:40 and read 14544 times.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 75):
QF002 what you cant get your head around and this applies to Qantas eccentric belief that all pax have to fly via SYD.

You're massively misinterpreting me here... Koruman gets it:

Quoting koruman (Reply 78):
Qantas can forget about an extended range 787 or A380 flying SYD-DFW-SYD.

If there are so few passengers flying DFW-SYD compared with DFW-BNE then it makes absolutely no sense to run the flight as SYD-DFW-SYD (via BNE or otherwise). If these figures were actually a representation of the traffic distribution on this route, then QF would be flying BNE-DFW-BNE and treating SYD pax in the same way they do PER, MEL etc traffic.

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 76):
Have you tried booking a return ticket from BNE to the US east coast...everything routes you through DFW, the LAX flight isn't even provided as an option unless you are sticking to the west coast.

Try doing the same for SYD though... Aside from the direct QF107 from NYC, QF will do anything it can to route you through DFW. The only way to book via LAX for most destinations is by manually going through the multi-city booking (the cost remains the same, however...)

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 81):
In regards to the reasonably low load factor remember that the extra 2 flights from 4 to 6 a week only commenced 7-8 weeks ago.It will need to time to absorb .

Not to be picky, but QF is only at 5 weekly at the moment... One extra weekly flight was added in January, another two are being added in July.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-18 16:26:18 and read 14394 times.

QF002 6 flights a week did commence 17 jan however then got reduced to 5 then goes back up to 6 in April then back to 5 in May.However for the flight we were talking about yes only 5 that week.
The QF news release stated 6 a week in January and daily in July.

See below

QF 008 QF 008 17JAN17FEB 1230567 307744 DFWDFW0615 0745 SYDSYD

then cut back not sure why

QF 008 QF 008 13MAR23MAR 1230507 307744 DFWDFW0515 0645 SYDSYD

Then

QF 008 QF 008 07APR04MAY 1230567 364744 DFWDFW0500 0630 SYDSYD
QF 008 QF 008 06MAY04JUL 1230507 364744 DFWDFW0500 0630 SYDSYD
QF 008 QF 008 05JUL27OCT 1234567 364744 DFWDFW0500 0630 SYDSYD

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-18 17:55:52 and read 14345 times.

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 76):
I do wonder if pax from SYD are put off by the stop over and would rather do their one stop services from east coast in LAX then do two stops and go via DFW and BNE.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 79):
There is that.

The stopover basically means that only people going from secondary East Coast markets to SYD would take QF8.

If you were going from ORD, NYC, IAD, MIA etc you would definitely go through LAX.

Thinking about it, the only significant business centres on the EC which aren't linked to LAX with AA are BOS and ATL

Precisely. The whole DFW-BNE-SYD flight is horribly misconceived.

Anyone wanting to fly into SYD will fly 1-stop via LAX.

Anyone wanting to fly into MEL will fly 1-stop via LAX.

Qantas seem determined to "prove" the route even though they haven't got equipment with sufficient range and small enough capacity to fly DFW-SYD and DFW-MEL, and they seem incapable of understanding that passengers are quite likely to select LAX as a 1-stop alternative.

The 77L is the ONLY aircraft with the right range and capacity for both SYD-DFW-SYD and MEL-DFW-MEL. And those two flights alone would use 6 frames, and PER-LHR-PER would require another 3-4. SYD-GRU would add require a further 3 frames once TAM joins OneWorld.

So a subfleet of 13-14 77Ls would actually make sense. And be able to fly routes which the 787 looks highly unable to be able to fly.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-18 18:07:16 and read 14306 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
Precisely. The whole DFW-BNE-SYD flight is horribly misconceived.

Anyone wanting to fly into SYD will fly 1-stop via LAX.

Anyone wanting to fly into MEL will fly 1-stop via LAX.

Not for the reason you say. There are numerous destinations in the US which cannot be reached non stop from LAX, that is the entire point of the DFW flight.

Arguably it should serve AKL instead westbound, or increase the frequency of LAX->SYD and BNE->LAX to compensate for the unbalancing of the trans-pacific flights.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
The 77L is the ONLY aircraft with the right range and capacity for both SYD-DFW-SYD and MEL-DFW-MEL

573-575t A380 will do the former fine. Likely it would do the MEL flight too, perhaps restricted westbound and it isn't likely to get daily. Who cares?

744ER may well stay on BNE-DFW for some time. It remains to be seen.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
SYD-GRU would add require a further 3 frames

LOL!

As if CASA would agree to that. And how would they justify making VA stick to ETOPS-180 to JNB if they use ETOPS-330 on this flight?

Give it up! The 777 ship has sailed for QF.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-18 18:43:49 and read 14283 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
The 77L is the ONLY aircraft with the right range and capacity for both SYD-DFW-SYD and MEL-DFW-MEL
Quoting thegeek (Reply 88):
573-575t A380 will do the former fine.

Likely it would do the MEL flight too, perhaps restricted westbound and it isn't likely to get daily.

It might be able to eke out the range, but it would fly with 30-40% loads on either route, because it is massively too big for the routes.

I don't mind Qantas wanting to concentrate on Sydney routes if it at least has appropriately-sized aircraft. But you could fit all the passengers wanting to fly DFW-SYD into an aircraft half the size of an A380, and still have room to spare.


Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
SYD-GRU would add require a further 3 frames once TAM joins OneWorld.
Quoting thegeek (Reply 88):
As if CASA would agree to that. And how would they justify making VA stick to ETOPS-180 to JNB if they use ETOPS-330 on this flight?

Up until now, Qantas' protectors in government have helped fight their battles to restrict long-range twin operations. I have no idea whether or not that will continue in the future.

But SYD-GRU makes a lot more sense than SYD-SCL or SYD-EZE. I'm going to Brazil early in 2013 and I considered the Qantas route via Santiago and then gave it up as inconvenient when I planned out how a Qantas / LAN Chile BNE-SYD-SCL-GRU-REC itinerary works out against an Air NZ / Copa BNE-AKL-LAX-PTY-REC one. I'm disgruntled with Air NZ at present and was seriously contemplating using Qantas and LAN, but I was only prepared to downgrade to Qantas if the Business Class product's deficits were outweighed by a more convenient timetable.

But Qantas/LAN couldn't even get me into and out of Recife, a city of 4 million people!

So with the Brazilian economy now almost exactly ten times as large as the Chilean one, I think Qantas needs to consider whether Santiago should be its sole South American port.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-18 18:55:33 and read 14296 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
So a subfleet of 13-14 77Ls would actually make sense.

It's not a subfleet if they're the only 777's that QF owns...

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
but it would fly with 30-40% loads on either route, because it is massively too big for the routes.

Yet we're seeing some stunning load figures come out of the existing flights... Remember that the 744ER's will be 375 seat planes after reconfiguration, so the leap to the A380 isn't that large. If QF is successful in pushing traffic towards the DFW flight from the East Coast (they are, as seen in the fact that it's the only routing the offer from many cities unless you know the go around) then I see no reason why the flight won't be ready for the additional capacity in 18 months once the more capable A380's start arriving...

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
But SYD-GRU makes a lot more sense than SYD-SCL

Because flying to a non-OW hub makes much more sense than flying to a OW hub... Hmmm...

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
I was only prepared to downgrade to Qantas if the Business Class product's deficits were outweighed by a more convenient timetable.

You do know that these flights will be flown with the reconfigured aircraft. I know there's a slim (and very slim, by the time the SCL change rolls around) chance of scoring an ER with the old seats, but by 'early 2013' you'll get fully flat Skybed, refreshed interior etc... Far superior product to any other routing to South America...

I'd like to see them expand to GRU in the future, but it makes no sense for them to fly to GRU today over SCL.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-18 19:16:11 and read 14247 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
It might be able to eke out the range, but it would fly with 30-40% loads on either route, because it is massively too big for the routes.

On what evidence? Like most Koruman statements, there is none. Loads have, by all accounts, been good, in fact, full apart from the seats blocked out for range. The demand is evidently there, the problem in turning a profit is the aircraft, and the A380 will eventually be on the route from SYD, and if BNE demand is as good as it appears from the statistics, then the 744ER might stay on BNE-DFW flights. Just because the passengers going on to SYD aren't great at the moment doesn't really mean anything considering that a lot of passengers can fly one stop to SYD from LAX. Those that can't will fly DFW-BNE-SYD but it obviously isn't convenient. But who it is convenient before is passengers who want to fly to places like PER/MEL/CNS/DRW/HBA/CBR from the US east coast where it is easier to connect through DFW than LAX and connect in BNE (which, while not being great, is easier to connect International-Domestic than SYD IMHO.

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
So with the Brazilian economy now almost exactly ten times as large as the Chilean one, I think Qantas needs to consider whether Santiago should be its sole South American port.

Due to only LAN/QF currently being on the route (not sure if AR still flies, but not serious contender really) they have a very very big monopoly on all Oz-South American traffic, and the only alternative is to do what you are doing and go via North America which most people wouldn't do. By all accounts QF/LN have very nice loads and now it will be even easier as you can fly QF to SCL and connect to a wide range of destinations. The fact that they don't fly to Brazil is more how far it is away, and this wouldn't be solved by the 77L as the cost of the flight would likely be considerably more than flying passengers via SCL which is closer to Oz

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-18 20:45:12 and read 14154 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 88):
There are numerous destinations in the US which cannot be reached non stop from LAX, that is the entire point of the DFW flight.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 79):
the only significant business centres on the EC which aren't linked to LAX with AA are BOS and ATL.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 79):
And I wouldn't want to speculate what the demand is between GSO and SYD

I should add PHL and CLT as East Coast business centres not served by AA from LAX, but at the end of the day the number of people going to NYC, WAS and ORD is probably greater than the rest of the East combined.

Yes DFW does serve a different market, but it is made up of lots of very small ones.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 91):
the only alternative is to do what you are doing and go via North America which most people wouldn't do

I went to Ecuador in January and flew QF/AA BNE-LAX-MIA-UIO. The trip was flawless both in terms of ease and the service received on both carriers (my first flights on AA since 1991 - VERY impressed, light years ahead of UA IMHO).

This was obviously before QF flew to SCL, but everyone else I was traveling with (35 people) had gone LA SYD-AKL-SCL-LIM-GYE-UIO. None of them had a single positive thing to say about LA and my flying time was actually shorter than theirs in both directions due to better connections.

From my experience if I was ever going to somewhere in Latin America north of Chile and Argentina then I would go through the USA without hesitation.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-18 21:12:24 and read 14131 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
But SYD-GRU makes a lot more sense than SYD-SCL or SYD-EZE.

Not to mention overflying a sizeable portion of the continent and then making people backtrack to reach their destination.

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
It might be able to eke out the range, but it would fly with 30-40% loads on either route, because it is massively too big for the routes.

I don't know if you are trolling for a reaction or are so one eyed that you actually believe this.

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
Precisely. The whole DFW-BNE-SYD flight is horribly misconceived.

Hate to hear what you say about QF's failures, like flying to EZE without any feed out of it.

This is one of QF's successes.

Quoting koruman (Reply 89):
BNE-AKL-LAX-PTY-REC

You couldn't use VA to fly BNE-LAX? That's frustrating. Also a tad surprising is being unable to fly REC-LAX direct.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-18 22:16:15 and read 14072 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 91):
On what evidence? Like most Koruman statements, there is none. Loads have, by all accounts, been good, in fact, full apart from the seats blocked out for range
Quoting koruman (Reply 78):
Zulu Alpha, with respect your figures must be misleading.

You are saying that of passengers embarking at DFW:
- 90 connect onward on Qantas to other Australian cities from Brisbane.
- 39 are destined for Sydney.
- 112 disembark for the final time at BNE, presumably for southeast Queensland destinations.
- 123 seats out of 364 are not sold, leaving a load factor of 66%.

The most generous towards SYD (and patently incorrect) interpretation of those figures is that if the first Australian port was SYD the number of passengers would have been:

90 (the onward connectors who could connect at SYD instead of BNE) + 39 (the ones who terminated at SYD) = 129 passengers who would have taken that flight.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 91):
Due to only LAN/QF currently being on the route (not sure if AR still flies, but not serious contender really) they have a very very big monopoly on all Oz-South American traffic, and the only alternative is to do what you are doing and go via North America which most people wouldn't do

I'm doing it because Qantas can't get me in and out of Brazil's fifth largest city, which is the size of Melbourne.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 91):
By all accounts QF/LN have very nice loads and now it will be even easier as you can fly QF to SCL and connect to a wide range of destinations. The fact that they don't fly to Brazil is more how far it is away, and this wouldn't be solved by the 77L as the cost of the flight would likely be considerably more than flying passengers via SCL which is closer to Oz

Ah, that old Qantas paradigm! "You're going to Amsterdam? We'll fly you to London Heathrow and you can connect". Or in this case: "You're going to Brazil? We'll take you to Chile, then connect you onto a Brazilian city you don't want or need to go to, then you can buy another ticket and reclaim and recheck your luggage on someone else's airline and make your own way to your destination".

Having Santiago as the entry point to South America is like having Hobart as the entry point to Australia.

In South America the only game in town is Brazil. Frankly, they should be considering just running the plane via Tahiti to Sao Paulo.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-18 22:30:28 and read 14061 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 94):
Having Santiago as the entry point to South America is like having Hobart as the entry point to Australia.

Some might say it's as crazy as making CNS the main entry point from North America's biggest hub...

What you fail to grasp is that HBT isn't the major hub for one of the largest airlines in the local market. SCL is. The airlines cannot provide a perfect solution for every single passenger's individual needs... That's why there's multiple airlines for you to choose from!

I daresay that in a couple of years, once the Australia-S America market is a little more developed, there will be far more options available...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: dynamicsguy
Posted 2012-03-18 23:21:33 and read 13990 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 92):
I should add PHL and CLT as East Coast business centres not served by AA from LAX,

You should, however, remove BOS since that is served non-stop by AA from LAX.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-18 23:45:16 and read 13979 times.

koruman, you seem to have some very passionate views on this subject, but you seem to be off the mark on several points.

- Likening SCL to HBA is so utterly useless that theres no point even taking it seriously.
- QF is a SYD based carrier that has its main hub in SYD. It will fly SYD-DFW-SYD when it has the equipment for it. Theres no point trying to prove anything otherwise as it is clearly their plan.
- Lots of your figures being quoted seem odd at best.

Just needed to bring a reality check to the discussion  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-19 00:37:46 and read 13904 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 94):
Having Santiago as the entry point to South America is like having Hobart as the entry point to Australia.

Well that's going a tad far: SCL is LAN's hub. It's just unfortunate that LAN don't fly to Recife, but that's hardly QF's fault! Hopefully once LANTAM goes through this will plug a major hole given that LAN does have (as you acknowledge) a weak presence in Brazil.

The reason for this though is that historically they only carry Chile-Brazil O&D traffic given that SCL is obviously not a viable hub for flights to Brazil from either North America or Europe.

I am, however, surprised that you couldn't book to fly via LAX and MIA with QF.

Quoting dynamicsguy (Reply 96):
You should, however, remove BOS since that is served non-stop by AA from LAX.

You're right, I'm sorry!

Charlotte, NC is the second largest banking centre in the USA although Bank of America (HQ in CLT) has just been taken over by Wells Fargo meaning that focus is likely to shift to San Francisco and therefore reducing the significance of CLT as a destination.

Further, does anything significant over than pharmaceuticals happen in Philadelphia?

Therefore I'd say that AA have the East Coast pretty well wrapped up at LAX from a time-conscious business travelers' perspective.

Of course that isn't be-all-and-end-all, for example my the company my father works for is HQ in Brisbane but their biggest operation is in the USA, HQ in Winston-Salem, NC. Therefore for him QF7/8 is a great thing given the flights available from DFW to GSO, RDU and CLT and the one-stop on the return (he often goes out on QF15 however - it's two stops anyway so it isn't a big deal).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TravellerPlus
Posted 2012-03-19 01:53:15 and read 13794 times.

Koruman, having Santiago as an entry point to South America is like having Singapore as an entry point to Asia. It is fantastic hub and Chile has the highest per capita GDP in the continent. Its home to one of the most consistenty profitable airlines in the world with the second highest market value once the merger with TAM is completed. Its hardly an aviation backwater.

I have flown to Recife a number of times. Fact, if you want a single alliance connection, Oneworld offers the fastest service from BNE to REC, with only 2 stops in LAX and MIA. Its a 2:20min hour transfer in LAX and a 4 hr transfer in MIA. In a nut shell by, the time a traveller reaches Panama City on your suggested Star Alliance combination, a Qantas/American traveller would have long arrived in Recife- and hopefully be relaxing on Boa Viagem beach.

As far as I can see, your suggested Star Alliance combination has 12 hour stopovers, 2am departures and takes 15 hours longer than Qantas best offering on the city pairs in question. You've not chosen the best example of Qantas "failing" the market.

It might also be worth pointing out that the distance from Santiago to Recife is the same as London to Kuwait. It about as far as one can get from Santiago in the whole South American continent.

[Edited 2012-03-19 01:57:29]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-19 04:08:25 and read 13609 times.

Quoting TravellerPlus (Reply 99):
Koruman, having Santiago as an entry point to South America is like having Singapore as an entry point to Asia. It is fantastic hub and Chile has the highest per capita GDP in the continent

Singapore has fantastic connections to every continent.

Santiago can't even offer me a flight to the 7th largest city in South America (Belo Horizonte) or the 9th (Porto Alegre) or the 10th (Recife), all of which are as big as Melbourne and located in Brazil.

If you read my post, I'm not arguing that Sao Paulo should replace Santiago.

I think that Qantas should serve each port daily from Sydney, using a 220 seat aircraft. Because in this decade, South America from an economic point of view is Brazil.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eta unknown
Posted 2012-03-19 05:14:11 and read 13484 times.

I'm deeply sorry to hear the plight of one of our more entertaining posters (queue the violins).

It's a shame you must endure lengthy transits in order to reach REC due to (misguided?) loyalties, rather than opt for routes that make common sense. And forgive me for pointing out that the 7th/9th/10th largest Brazilian cities (more focused on LIS and MIA) are of little significance when schedule planners map out connections from SYD/MEL/BNE and OOL (ooh that last one was a stretch).

Be that as it may, you wont have to endure Hobartiago.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-19 05:35:39 and read 13482 times.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 101):
OOL (ooh that last one was a stretch).
Quoting eta unknown (Reply 101):
you wont have to endure Hobartiago.

  
(Sorry Koruman )

Quoting koruman (Reply 100):
I'm not arguing that Sao Paulo should replace Santiago.

I think that Qantas should serve each port daily from Sydney, using a 220 seat aircraft. Because in this decade, South America from an economic point of view is Brazil.

I agree in theory, however given that we are talking about an airline with such a limited presence in Asia (the true powerhouse of this decade) then I think we are lucky to have even one route to South America!!!

However, and again, LAN are a weak presence in Brazil right now. If TAM doesn't happen LA (and - yes in time - QF) will need to think long and hard about that. However to rest of the continent SCL isn't a bad hub at all. That GRU will be a good destination in the future cannot seriously be disputed. Right now though I think that the SCL hub operation should be given time to mature first

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-19 05:37:21 and read 13479 times.

I don't really understand the personal tone of many of the criticisms on this thread. Why is constructive criticism frowned upon?

My point was really simple: Brazil now has the world's sixth largest economy, having overtaken the UK, and its economy is four times as big as Chile and Argentina's combined.

And while Brazil has 9 of South America's 20 cities with more than 3 million population, only 3 out of 9 are served by LAN Chile from Santiago, which is exceptionally poor coverage.

It's fine to use Santiago as a South American gateway. But the main market in South America is Brazil, and Qantas would do well to focus on how to serve it directly. That's all.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: jupiter2
Posted 2012-03-19 05:43:14 and read 13483 times.

Koruman, God help any airline if you ever got to be a fleet planner !!!

I love the passion in your arguements, but the practicalities of a large number of your suggestions, is well, amusing at times. But you always get bites, which while these discussions are, for the most part amusing, they also get frustrating.

As has been pointed out, if you were truly serious about getting to Recife in the shortest, most practical mode, QF/AA through LAX and MIA would be the best, most efficient routing, but then again, that just wouldn't have been Koruman !!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: AA909
Posted 2012-03-19 06:02:33 and read 13459 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 92):
I went to Ecuador in January and flew QF/AA BNE-LAX-MIA-UIO. The trip was flawless both in terms of ease and the service received on both carriers (my first flights on AA since 1991 - VERY impressed, light years ahead of UA IMHO).


How do you rate the inter-terminal transfer in LAX? I prefer the DFW terminal D experience.

Also immigration at LAX? I audibly cursed on my last experience there at the almost total disorganisation and general state of affairs.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-19 06:06:00 and read 13455 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 103):
Why is constructive criticism frowned upon?

*deep breath*

Koruman, I don't think anybody on here is against "constructive criticism".

However you do manage to frustrate some people with your unilateral statements. Unfortunately none of us are right all the time, and there are occasions when other people point out appropriate flaws in your underlying assumptions. Rather than respond to these points and thereby facilitate debate, you often simply re-state your original argument with increasing vociferous. This comes over to some as bellicose.


To take this LatAm debate: you have repeatedly stated that GRU would be a better destination than SCL given the size of the Brazilian economy. That Brazil is the powerhouse of the region and rapidly leaving Argentina and Chile in the dust is undebatable.

However, QF is part of OW - as are LAN. Given that LAN is far and away the largest carrier on the continent it is useful to use those links to serve a greater market. After all, when QF flew to EZE they could take advantage of only a handful of connection with Lan Argentina. If they flew to GRU they would get none at all, not even GIG. Now, however, the whole of Chile + the largest cities in Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and (yes) Brazil are within one-stop. Therefore right now Australia is probably better connected to South America than at any point in history.

At no point in the above do you actually acknowledge this, you simply keep coming back to the fact that LAN don't fly to a particular city. This does not point to the futility of SCL as a hub, rather a gap in LAN's network. In effect your position is analogous to someone ranting about the limited network out of DXB because EK don't fly to LUX - which has the highest per capita income in Europe.

Further, I think several people have agreed that GRU would be a good destination in the future. However given that QF would get no feed on the other end (unless/until TAM joins OW) means that it would be a O&D market. Right now the demand probably isn't there. Yet.


Please don't be offended by anything I've written. Good night.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-19 06:12:55 and read 13451 times.

Quoting AA909 (Reply 105):
How do you rate the inter-terminal transfer in LAX?

I don't mind it really. After all TBIT and T4 are only about 100m from each other and after a 14 hour flight I like to walk it in order to stretch my legs. Honestly I don't know why people bother with the bus: it's such a short distance with a nice wide footpath the entire way that by the time you've actually waited for the bus to show up you would be there!

Quoting AA909 (Reply 105):
Also immigration at LAX? I audibly cursed on my last experience there at the almost total disorganisation and general state of affairs.

LAX was better than MIA. But that's like saying that Iran is a liberal democracy compared to North Korea  

The AA terminal at MIA is quite nice, but the common user international terminal (where AA intl flights arrive) is absolutely atrocious - probably the worst terminal of any airport I've been to. Yes I've been to some real sheds, but given the size of MIA I would expect better facilities whereas I can forgive it when an airport sees one flight per day.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: AA909
Posted 2012-03-19 08:06:53 and read 13380 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 106):
After all, when QF flew to EZE they could take advantage of only a handful of connection with Lan Argentina.

Agreed on the logic of SCL being a better destination right now than GRU. With Argentina's deteriorating economy and Chile's strengthening, the switch to SCL seems a good strategic move given its status as a OW hub, with the possible caveat that LA is a slightly more serious transpacific competitor to SCL than AR was to EZE.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 107):
The AA terminal at MIA is quite nice, but the common user international terminal (where AA intl flights arrive) is absolutely atrocious - probably the worst terminal of any airport I've been to. Yes I've been to some real sheds, but given the size of MIA I would expect better facilities whereas I can forgive it when an airport sees one flight per day.

I don't think all int'l AA flights arrive there. When I last came back to MIA from EZE the flight docked at the (nice) AA terminal, but then everyone had to get to the old terminal for immigration. Now that was a long way! About 6 travelators, one train, 4 or 5 escalators. And to boot we were at immigration 30 minutes before it opened due to earlier than scheduled arrival.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-03-19 14:21:37 and read 13280 times.

Last week JetGo the newest FIFO carrier in Australia had it's first ERJ 135 arrive at BNE.VH-JTG is the aircraft reg.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-03-19 14:28:56 and read 13267 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 106):
However given that QF would get no feed on the other end (unless/until TAM joins OW) means that it would be a O&D market. Right now the demand probably isn't there. Yet.

I think the only reason QF aren't in GRU is because they don't have an aircraft that has the range to make it with any sort of decent payload. If they did I'm sure QF would take the risk, with or without feed, to fly there to build the market up. But for now SCL, and their stated intention to build it to daily, seems a better entry point to South America than EZE.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-19 15:14:30 and read 13243 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 103):
My point was really simple: Brazil now has the world's sixth largest economy, having overtaken the UK, and its economy is four times as big as Chile and Argentina's combined.

China is the second largest economy in the world, and has a far greater relevance to Australia, yet QF only flies a single daily flight into the country. France is the 5th largest economy in the world, and the best QF can muster is a codeshare. Of the top 10 economies in the world, QF flies to only 5, serving 3 of them with a single daily flight (from SYD, shockingly).

Your point is valid, but there are simply so few commercial links between Australia and Brazil to warrant services today. The size of the economy is irrelevant if there is no common ground.

Quoting koruman (Reply 103):
And while Brazil has 9 of South America's 20 cities with more than 3 million population, only 3 out of 9 are served by LAN Chile from Santiago, which is exceptionally poor coverage.

Yes, it is exceptionally poor coverage. LA is working to fix this though, and assuming there are no issues, will be able to get you there very soon...

Nobody is criticising you personally, but you've got a slight reputation for wacky ideas (who doesn't though)... I think it would be a great shame if QF wasn't serving Brazil 10-15 years down the track, but it simply doesn't make sense instead of SCL today.

[Edited 2012-03-19 16:12:05]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-19 18:00:09 and read 13115 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 93):
Also a tad surprising is being unable to fly REC-LAX direct.

The cities of costal northern Brazil aren't all that popular from the US. I don't think any US carrier flies to Fortaleza or Natal, but American does fly to Recife and Salvador from MIA.

It's a bit of a mystery to me because I think Fortaleza is one of the great beach destinations. Teensy tad dangerous in some areas at night, but no more so than many other places. There are parts Puerto Rico I would not go to alone at night. Or maybe even Sydney - LOL.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 111):
I think it would be a great shame if QF wasn't serving Brazil 10-15 years down the track, but it simply doesn't make sense instead of SCL today.

I would think very much less than that, but SCL makes considerable sense to me as a first port of call on the other side of an ocean giving access to the whole continent.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-19 18:09:50]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-19 18:35:14 and read 13079 times.

If we want to come up with alternate routings for Koruman's trip, it is actually possible as a two stop, just not on a single ticket.

QF/NZ/DJ BNE-AKL
Then AR AKL-EZE-REC.

Wouldn't mind doing it that way on the return if I could brave AR (never used them), but I'd hate to miss my flight in AKL and lose my booking going outbound.

EDIT: I guess that assumes that AR is still flying to AKL at the time.

[Edited 2012-03-19 18:36:20]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: aerokiwi
Posted 2012-03-19 20:04:01 and read 12976 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 103):
I don't really understand the personal tone of many of the criticisms on this thread. Why is constructive criticism frowned upon?

It may possibly because of the noise generated arising from your very personal, and dare I say, specific (OOL/BNE-REC) circumstances. And then of course, hyperbolic statements like this...

Quoting koruman (Reply 87):
The whole DFW-BNE-SYD flight is horribly misconceived.

I think they're using BNE just like NZ uses AKL - to then distribute passengers across the continent to other destinations.

Quoting mariner (Reply 112):
would think very much less than that, but SCL makes considerable sense to me as a first port of call on the other side of an ocean giving access to the whole continent.

Me too. Again, just like NZ uses AKL as a distribution point for pax travelling on from the US/Canada/Pacific Islands to other Australian and New Zealand cities. Ok, apprently there's no SCL-REC connection, but by and large every major city in South America is accessible via SCL.

Quoting jupiter2 (Reply 83):
Seriously, you guys read far too much into one flights stats.

I'd say, interesting thought it was.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-19 21:26:02 and read 12881 times.

I was just having a look around AusBT (seems like a bit of a slow news day...) and noticed a question off the side about QF's ADL-SIN service...

As a consequence, I've just had a flick through the timetable, and it appears that Tuesday QF81 SYD-ADL-SIN is becoming an A332 from May 8th, while the A333 remains on the Thursday and Saturday services (rotated from SIN).

Interesting timing, given that AKL-LAX ends 2 days later. Where are the stresses on the A333's coming from though, I wonder? 744's on BNE-SIN was supposed to be a direct compensation for the MEL-HKG change, and the SYD-BKK change doesn't occur for a full month after this one.

The only thing I can think of is that this must be maintenance, unless I'm missing something??

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: JQflightie
Posted 2012-03-19 22:15:30 and read 12831 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 115):

you'll find that there is a A332 on PER-SIN throughout May too, so im guessing its geting rotated up via SIN

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-19 22:27:31 and read 12814 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 113):

If we want to come up with alternate routings for Koruman's trip, it is actually possible as a two stop, just not on a single ticket.

  

I know that QF does not have an Interline agreement with AR, I am not sure if DJ and NZ have an interline agreement with AR. If I was to do your trip, I would look at doing overnights in AKL in both directions. If the carriers are late (say QF into AKL) and it misses the AR connection, you are on your own, neither airline will take responsibility when on separate tickets.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-19 23:21:17 and read 12741 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 113):
AR AKL-EZE-REC

To give some credit to Koruman, given what I've heard about AR from a friend who recently returned from Argentina I think I would rather walk...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-19 23:31:22 and read 12720 times.

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 116):
you'll find that there is a A332 on PER-SIN throughout May too, so im guessing its geting rotated up via SIN

Yeah, I noticed that in the question as well... I suppose that supports the maintenance theory, given that these changes probably represent one aircraft's weekly cycle. It's also been at least a few years since the A333's have had heavy maintenance (I'm assuming, given none have the new livery which was introduced in 2008). Perhaps we will be seeing the new Aboriginal livery soon??

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-19 23:48:48 and read 12700 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 118):
To give some credit to Koruman, given what I've heard about AR from a friend who recently returned from Argentina I think I would rather walk...

Oh.

I've only flown with 'em across the Tasman, but I quite enjoyed it. The staff were all efficient enough and pleasant enough, the seat was comfortable enough and the food was fine - not the best I've had and not the worst. It wasn't mortgage-your-first-born-child expensive and I felt I got value for money.

There were some (minor) "punctuality issues" on the return, but nothing that I couldn't handle, I quite like lolling around airports if there are delays, I'm a people watcher.

It reminded me of several of the Hispanic airlines I've flown - Aeromexico, eg - which i was told was terrible and which proved to be a very pleasant experience. Maybe I got lucky or maybe it helps that I've lived there. Or maybe I'm not a very demanding passenger.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-19 23:51:39]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-20 00:03:02 and read 12675 times.

I need to amend that.

Actually you can do BNE-AKL-EZE on one ticket through AR. DJ provide the service out of BNE, with 2h25m in AKL. Seems pretty good, but they won't sell you a 3 stop to REC. 1130 BNE -> 1550 EZE. On the return it is 5h10m in AKL, and one of the 3 days per week you can't fly from EZE to AKL as there isn't a connection. 2-3 days in AKL if something goes wrong wrong with the DJ flight, it would only be somewhat of a consolation keeping your itinerary. But it is possible.

Problem comes about getting from EZE-REC. AR won't sell it as one itinerary online from BNE and don't fly it direct. Actually, I'm pretty impressed koruman got one itinerary (if he did) as I'm not able do so. Supposedly JJ fly EZE-REC direct, but I'm not able to book it.

With koruman's itinerary, I can't see how more than 12 hours of thumb twiddling is avoided. I make it:
1525BNE 2025AKL
2130AKL 1445LAX
0158+1LAX 1028+1PTY
1526+1PTY 0045+2REC

Taking around 2 days to actually get there.

Perhaps only slightly worse than alternates, but the most probable 2 stop is via LAX. Why go via AKL if going via LAX? That's the part that makes no sense whatsoever to me.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: MillwallSean
Posted 2012-03-20 00:23:32 and read 12622 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 94):

In South America the only game in town is Brazil. Frankly, they should be considering just running the plane via Tahiti to Sao Paulo.
Quoting koruman (Reply 103):
My point was really simple: Brazil now has the world's sixth largest economy, having overtaken the UK, and its economy is four times as big as Chile and Argentina's combined.

In this case I agree with Koruman. (Even though petro and banking makes GDP rather limited as a comparative tool)

Brazil is the only game in town in regards to South America.
Santiago is a location at the end of South America and can never become a good hub for the continent. It doesnt have the O/D needed for that. And as rightly pointed out it will never serve the big markets on the continent because of this. And yes not serving 50% of the biggets cities from its primary hub is an issue.
Ask yourselves how much traffic is there between Australia and Chile then ask what the potential is. Now change Chile for Brazil...

With LAN and TAM marrying QF should have started the flight to Sao Paolo. There will be a codeshare partner eventually and in the meantime interlining works just fine.

The business in Brazil is booming. Connections such as mining, petroleum and agriculture are all there. Add on the Rio olympics and the world cup in football and you see the picture. Brazil is the place to be.

What Sao Paolo doesnt do well is onestops to Chile, Peru or Ecuador. Smaller markets. the rest of South america is equally well served through Sao Paolo. Sao Paolo can even work for the miniscule but growing African traffic that normally goes through Dubai or JBurg.

Im of the opinion that QF should have started Sao paolo instead of Santiago. I give Koruman right on that.
This because Brazil being the economy in South America. This because its economy is a natural match to Australias resource based economy. because the most South American foreign students in Australia are Brazilian. because it is the biggest tourist destination and happens to have the worlds two largest sporting events coming up giving it unimagined exposure as a destination.

Its perhaps not because Recife isnt served by a onestop from Santiago though. Recife is perhaps not where I see hoardes of Aussies venturing. Yet.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-20 00:33:39 and read 12629 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 122):
With LAN and TAM marrying QF should have started the flight to Sao Paolo

A 744ER can't manage that flight, I thought. Needs an A345 which QF don't have and are unlikely to get. JJ could probably do it, but aren't inclined.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-20 00:40:07 and read 12618 times.

Wow, that's a lot of interest in my itinerary. I'm flattered!

If you read my original post in tragic detail, you would have read that I wrote that I was happy to tolerate a Skybed on Qantas instead of an Upper Class Suite on Air New Zealand if there was a compellingly attractive advantage in a more steamlined and direct itinerary.

(I'm disenchanted with NZ currently because of the devaluation of their loyalty program and by my standards I'm quite open-minded about my arrangements.)

I need to visit Rio, Salvador and Recife on my trip but not Sao Paulo and rightly or wrongly I'm taking my wife and kids and going to Iguacu and Natal in the middle and making a family break of it.

So here is how I decided to do it.

Outbound on a Friday
NZ136: BNE 1125 AKL 1725
NZ6: AKL 1915 LAX 1030

We're going to stay in Santa Monica that night so the kids can burn off some energy.

Saturday
CM473: LAX 0740 PTY 1710
CM113: PTY1844 GIG 0454+1

On the way back:
CM240: REC 0147 PTY 0700
CM472: PTY 0948 LAX 1348

Again, we're going to take a night in Santa Monica to civilise the journey, then:
NZ1: LAX 2115 AKL 0715+2
NZ135: AKL 0925 BNE 0955.

I'm very happy with that itinerary. The Copa flights are on a separate ticket, but the deliberately long overnight stays at LAX should eliminate all risk from that process.

I'm in the process of moving my business away from Air NZ, and this itinerary also lets me keep my options open about where I take it. Copa has taken United's Mileage Plus on as its frequent flyer program, and the combination of an Air NZ Business Premier ticket and a Copa Business one should earn a lot of status. I flirted with the idea of just doing it all as a United ticket, but if you see how seamless my BNE-AKL-LAX and vice versa connections are I'm not prepared to countenance a terminal change at SYD.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-20 01:29:40 and read 12544 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 122):

Flying to the North East of South America will just leave QF with the same issues they face today in Europe, overflying the entire continent and destroying competitiveness due to unfavourable connections to most of the continent.

Perhaps QF will take SYD-SCL to daily, and LA will drop their SCL-AKL-SYD flights. They could then open up a flight from Brazil via JJ.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-20 02:05:52 and read 12506 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 122):
This because Brazil being the economy in South America. This because its economy is a natural match to Australias resource based economy. because the most South American foreign students in Australia are Brazilian. because it is the biggest tourist destination and happens to have the worlds two largest sporting events coming up giving it unimagined exposure as a destination.
Quoting qf002 (Reply 125):
Flying to the North East of South America will just leave QF with the same issues they face today in Europe, overflying the entire continent and destroying competitiveness due to unfavourable connections to most of the continent.

Except for the fact that the northeast of South America is the only important market. Brazil's economy is as big as the rest of South America put together, and four times as big as Chile, Argentina and Uruguay combined (which are the three nations with the highest per capita GDP).

Only Brazil matters, from an economic point of view.

(My favourite places in South America are the two sides of the River Plate - Mar del Plata and Buenos Aires in Argentina, and Montevideo and Colonia in Uruguay. The per capita wealth is slightly ahead of Brazil's average due to Brazil's uneven wealth distribution, but if you go on holiday to resorts like Punta del Este and Carmelo the place is dominated by wealthy Brazilians. As is Miami, if any of you have noticed lately).

And don't forget, Qantas primarily service the most distant major city in Europe (London) because it is the most important for their market. They don't fly into Istanbul or Moscow as "the closest gateway", they just go where the market is.

And in South America the market is Brazil.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-20 02:15:29 and read 12540 times.

Mariner, I'm really glad you had a good experience with AR. Working of just two people's experiences (one positive and one negative) it is difficult to know what is 'normal', but the person I'm referring to isn't a difficult traveler. She's a student backpacker, and the one thing about our type is that we will fly on anyone via anywhere if the price is right.

She had stuff to vent about the whole experience from rude crews, dirty planes, inedible food, and yes...

Quoting mariner (Reply 120):
"punctuality issues"

Apparently their timetable was something of a work of fiction, although it was worse for domestic than long-haul

Quoting mariner (Reply 120):
which i was told was terrible and which proved to be a very pleasant experience

I was probably unduly harsh on AR in the above post, sorry!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-20 02:48:05 and read 12487 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 127):
She had stuff to vent about the whole experience from rude crews, dirty planes, inedible food, and yes...

I'm sure. I've had bad experiences on just about every airline I've flown with on any regular basis. I once swore I would "never fly British again!" but of course I did, and it was fine.

I've had disappointing flights on Qantas and Air NZ and Virgin Australia, but they were only disappointing because they weren't as good as the best flights I've had and sometimes it is my own mood that changes the experience.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 127):
Apparently their timetable was something of a work of fiction, although it was worse for domestic than long-haul

I have some problems with that, too. Apologists for Mussolini used to say that he made the Italian trains run on time.

But why would you go to Italy if you want punctuality? I get more than enough of that in Germany and Switzerland.

Quoting koruman (Reply 126):
Only Brazil matters, from an economic point of view.

Economically, NZ doesn't amount to a hill of beans compared to Australia. I can't think why any airline bothers to fly here.

Brazil surely has a booming economy but one reason there are so many more Brazilians everywhere is because there are so many more Brazilians.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-20 02:59:37]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: MillwallSean
Posted 2012-03-20 03:32:19 and read 12410 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 128):
Economically, NZ doesn't amount to a hill of beans compared to Australia. I can't think why any airline bothers to fly here.

Brazil surely has a booming economy but one reason there are so many more Brazilians everywhere is because there are so many more Brazilians.

In this case its about serving the biggest, richest and most profitable market and thats Sao Paolo. When that ripe fruit has been picked Im sure QF can look into other markets thats lower yeidling just as Asian airlines eventually tend to look into NZ.

Normally an airline starting an Oceania route looks to the big economies first and thus usually starting Sydney or Melbourne.
The Sydney and Melbourne of South America both happens to be located in Brazil and are called Sao Paolo and Rio...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-20 03:53:33 and read 12378 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 129):
Normally an airline starting an Oceania route looks to the big economies first and thus usually starting Sydney or Melbourne.

I would look to the points of established economic contact first, as markets that already have relationships - and thus traffic - and Brazil is a relative late comer in those terms, to both Australia and New Zealand.

The reasons Qantas flies to London are socio-economic - just just economic.

But each to their own. I'm sure Brazil will come, eventually.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-20 04:12:28]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: NZ107
Posted 2012-03-20 03:59:23 and read 12380 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 128):
I can't think why any airline bothers to fly here.

Well it's true that a whole lot of airlines quit NZ first.. GA, BA, UA to name a few.. Even QF nearly falls into that category.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-20 04:23:19 and read 12316 times.

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 131):
Well it's true that a whole lot of airlines quit NZ first.. GA, BA, UA to name a few.. Even QF nearly falls into that category.

That's sort of my point. Both United and British fly to NZ by code share and British scarcely serves Australia with its own metal.

I'm not totally convinced that there is - yet - a profitable market for Qantas (or Air NZ) in South America - it may take time to build.

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-20 04:32:24 and read 12296 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 126):
And don't forget, Qantas primarily service the most distant major city in Europe (London) because it is the most important for their market. They don't fly into Istanbul or Moscow as "the closest gateway", they just go where the market is.

And in South America the market is Brazil.

London is about a whole lot more than the size of the economy. The UK and Australia have ties deeper than probably any other two countries on earth, and there is an enormous market to be served between the two. It's not just about economic links, where are few and far between these days anyway...

Brazil has little relevance to Australia. There are a few Aussie tourists who head over there every year (it's a substantial market, yes, and a generally high yielding one), but very little traffic coming the other way. I'm unsure exactly what economic links the countries share -- I'd suggest Australia has more relevance to Chille given that the two nations have recently entered a Free Trade Agreement (no such agreement, nor negotiations, exist with regards to Brazil).

In any case, it's become clear that the "closest gateway" model is working pretty well for those airlines using for their flights to Europe (or really, in effect, a hub and spoke network). QF is cutting back flights because they can't make money, so maybe the "go to the market" strategy you're advocating for in this instance is the wrong one to follow? I'd bet QF would gladly look at ways to hub at least some European traffic closer to Asia if they could go back a decade...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-20 05:05:13 and read 12247 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 128):
I'm sure. I've had bad experiences on just about every airline I've flown with on any regular basis. I once swore I would "never fly British again!" but of course I did, and it was fine.

Oh don't get me wrong, no one is perfect all the time.

Probably the worse flight I've ever been on from a service perspective was on QF (SYD-HNL). To say that the crew couldn't give a stuff about the passengers would go beyond an understatement. They were a disgrace.

However, every other long haul flight I've ever taken with QF has been fantastic. Maybe I've been very lucky, but in my mind QF International (baring that one incident) and EK (my favourite airline bar none) are about the same standard.


However, when someone gets off 8 AR/AU flights and has nothing positive to say about a single one then I mentally put a cross next to that company. The same applies, incidentally, for LAN on the basis of the scenario I described previously. That's not to say I'm in any way anti-developing world airlines, IMHO KQ hold their own well against the European legacies and are probably better than the US carriers.


But I do very much acknowledge that I should reserve judgment until I've flown them. We've all heard countless FR horror stories, but I've NEVER had a bad experience with them. And, no I'm not biased despite the username!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-20 05:56:24 and read 12210 times.

* Skywest Airlines has begun using a leased 737 on Tue/Wed/Thu Perth-Derby (Curtin) services, with Mon/Fri services remaining F100s. Skywest expects to introduce their A320 on the route later in April
* Qantas will begin a second service on Sundays from Brisbane to Mount Isa, bringing services to 13 weekly (or double daily with exception of Saturdays)
* Virgin Australia has announced it is changing its baggage policy from 16MAY12 to a piece-based system. This will bring Virgin's baggage policy in line with that of Qantas
* Brisbane Airport saw a sharp increase in passengers in FEB12 with 6.3% and 8.6% increase in International and Domestic traffic respectively. The Airport also reported a sharp increase in passengers from Japan in the same month
* Taiwan-based China Airlines will operate 4 charter flights to Brisbane & Cairns (2 each) in JUL12 utilising A330-300s. China Airlines currently flies to Brisbane 3x weekly, however it does not currently operate regular services to Cairns

It is understood Virgin Australia will take delivery of the first of their new-build A330-200s this week, with VH-XFC being the first to arrive.


Photo Source - DigitalAirliners.com (Flickr)

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-20 06:20:08 and read 12167 times.

Quoting QF175 (Reply 135):
It is understood Virgin Australia will take delivery of the first of their new-build A330-200s this week, with VH-XFC being the first to arrive.

This is exciting. I wonder what their new product will look like...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-20 06:44:25 and read 12135 times.

BNE growth was affected by the floods last year which further boosts it's % growth this year. OOL seems to be suffering on the international front in the last few months though.

Japan growth seems to be increasing solidly across the board, including to MEL. Given that the earthquake and tsunami occurred in March it is interesting to see the boost in corresponding months prior to that event.

Impressive growth seen by the carriers like Alliance and SkyWest, benefiting from the current mining traffic, which is helping to boost PER and BNE at this time, and I can see other airports gaining from this in coming years as the reach widens. Will be interesting to see what routes are flown.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: byronicle6
Posted 2012-03-20 20:47:27 and read 11869 times.

Scoot has opened bookings for those "members" who have registered with the site.
Flights to SYD begin June 26th & OOL also June 26th. Sydney flights at 1x Daily and Gold Coast at 6x Weekly B777-200ER
Scoot's IATA is OQ, and opening fares are $88 each way including all taxes

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-20 21:08:48 and read 11852 times.

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 138):
Flights to SYD begin June 26th & OOL also June 26th

SYD starts on June 26th, OOL starts a day later on the 27th. Also, OOL is only 5 weekly to start with...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: tayser
Posted 2012-03-20 21:28:50 and read 11837 times.

various MEL news releases

http://melbourneairport.com.au/News-...by-55percent-in-february-2012.html
Feb YoY

International: 529,923 5.5%
Domestic: 1,658,887 2.5%
Overall: 2,188,810 3.2%

and more details about the new domestic terminal:

http://melbourneairport.com.au/About...cts/southern-precinct-program.html

Quote:
The project is part of a proposed program of investment by Melbourne Airport over the next five years budgeted in excess of $1 billion. Stage 1 of the proposed development is focussed on the area south of the existing T3 and around the T4 terminal, and includes the phased development of:
- a new domestic terminal designed to cater for up to 20 million passengers per annum and an ultimate area of 35,000 square metres;
- 35 additional aircraft parking aprons and taxi lanes to accommodate future growth
- two new multi-level structures for ground transport services, with additional car parking spaces, and access to other services such as taxis, shuttle buses and public buses;
- upgrading of the airport road networks to proved access to the new terminal precinct and to support the future growth of Melbourne Airport over the next 30-40 years.

Phase One of the Southern Precinct Development Program has an estimated cost of up of to $300 million.
If approved, it is proposed to commence construction in October 2012 and for the new terminal facility to be open by July 2014.


to put it in perspective, "up to 20 million pax" = what MEL currently gets in domestic passengers.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: byronicle6
Posted 2012-03-20 22:01:41 and read 11787 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 139):
SYD starts on June 26th, OOL starts a day later on the 27th. Also, OOL is only 5 weekly to start with...


From what I can see on the website, the inaugural OOL flight departs SIN at 22:25 on Tuesday June 26. And sorry yes, 5x weekly to OOL. Not flying Wed & Sat SIN-OOL and Thur & Sun OOL-SIN

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: tayser
Posted 2012-03-20 22:09:52 and read 11774 times.

And now the reports on the new terminal are up on the site:

http://melbourneairport.com.au/About...cts/southern-precinct-program.html

direct links to the PDFs:

Report: http://melbourneairport.com.au/docs/proposed-spp-mdp.pdf (2meg)
Appendices: http://melbourneairport.com.au/docs/...pendicies-for-proposed-spp-mdp.pdf (15 meg)

Effectively the main part is creating a new "Concourse G" to the south, and then over phases start rebuilding "Concourse E (old Ansett Terminal / current T3) & F (secondary T3 concourse). Looks to be eventually when complete all three concourses will be the same length as the T2 secondary concourse - that's about 8-10 737/320 sized gates either side of each concourse.

It also looks like the entry to T3 will shift southward (currently as people may know, right on the corner of the T2 / international section).

pretty pictures for people who want a summary in the appendices (general form/overview - not a final render of the terminal unfortunately), lots of text to read in the report - happy reading/viewing

very very big expansion compared to the current terminal



[Edited 2012-03-20 22:19:24]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-20 23:07:44 and read 11703 times.

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 141):
From what I can see on the website, the inaugural OOL flight departs SIN at 22:25 on Tuesday June 26. And sorry yes, 5x weekly to OOL. Not flying Wed & Sat SIN-OOL and Thur & Sun OOL-SIN

The flight to OOL leaves almost 24 hours after the flight to SYD... I've just checked, and you are technically correct. From Australia, however, SYD-SIN starts on the 26th and OOL-SIN starts on the 27th.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-20 23:27:10 and read 11675 times.

Scored myself 3 return tickets to SIN from OOL in July... $88 fares each way + $22 for baggage + $30 to chose your seat ensuring you sit next to someone else + Booking fee. Nearly doubles the price, but can't complain, got 3 people to Singapore and back for just over $900 whereas usually that would just get 1 person...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: tayser
Posted 2012-03-20 23:46:41 and read 11640 times.

the "big" render from the docs above

http://oi41.tinypic.com/farmgl.jpg

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: smi0006
Posted 2012-03-21 00:06:10 and read 11616 times.

I think the new domestic terminal will be impressive and much needed for Virgin in Melbourne. Has it been mentioned if JQ will move down there? Hopefully with this extension T2 will get a bit of a refurb and expansion airside in the check-in area, it’s quiet the cramped dump at the moment.

The master plan shows that an extension of the international concourse is planned, anyone have any ideas when this is likely to take place? Many mornings and several nights during the week there are no where near enough gates, or even check-in counters.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: MillwallSean
Posted 2012-03-21 00:12:47 and read 11596 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 133):
Brazil has little relevance to Australia. There are a few Aussie tourists who head over there every year (it's a substantial market, yes, and a generally high yielding one), but very little traffic coming the other way. I'm unsure exactly what economic links the countries share -- I'd suggest Australia has more relevance to Chille given that the two nations have recently entered a Free Trade Agreement (no such agreement, nor negotiations, exist with regards to Brazil).

It would be interesting to understand the reasoning behind your conclusion that chile is more relevant than Brazil.
Anyway here are some facts:
Australian exports to Chile: A$ 366 million
Australian exports to Brazil: A$ 1,574 million
(Source Austrade)

This is why I belive Brazil is a much more important market than Chile.

For the sake of it
Australian exports to Argentina: A$ 336 million
Australian exports to Peru: A$ 98 million
Australian exports to Colombia: A$ 34 million

Those are the top three export destinations in South America after Brazil. Fact is as mentioned earlier that Brazil gets more exports than the rest of South America together.
Australia's principal trading partner and its principal VFR market in South America is with a huge margin Brazil.

The good point that can be made against Sao Paolo was made above, the 747-400 apparently doesn't have the legs. Thats a great argument. We all know that QF, unfortunately, doesn't have much other planes that can ply the Southern Ocean.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: CXfirst
Posted 2012-03-21 01:55:40 and read 11480 times.

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 146):
The master plan shows that an extension of the international concourse is planned, anyone have any ideas when this is likely to take place? Many mornings and several nights during the week there are no where near enough gates, or even check-in counters.

Would it have been possible to add a level to concourse e (the one closest to t2), and make the gates on that concourse able to handle domestic and international ops? This would add some more gate space for peak international operations. If some of those gates could handle A330 size jets it would be perfect capacity to MEL.

-CXfirst

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-21 02:28:08 and read 11461 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 147):
The good point that can be made against Sao Paolo was made above, the 747-400 apparently doesn't have the legs. Thats a great argument. We all know that QF, unfortunately, doesn't have much other planes that can ply the Southern Ocean.

But why not use a 747 on SYD-PPT-GRU?

Sydney-Tahiti = 3,806 miles
Tahiti-Sao Paulo = 6,541 miles.

And the French Polynesian government might consider underwriting the PPT-GRU sector, as they are on record as wanting to grow Brazilian tourism to Bora Bora, which traditionally routes in on LAN Chile via Santiago.

MillwallSean's figures really confirm what I argued earlier. The only significant South American market for Qantas is Brazil.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-21 03:49:30 and read 11334 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 147):
This is why I belive Brazil is a much more important market than Chile.

I don't think there is any doubt about it. But no matter how good Australia's trade is with Brazil, it is dwarfed by the trade with Asia and especially China, so it is a greater concern - to me - that Qantas has such limited service to China. If the bilateral is the problem, fix the bilateral.

As a consequence, I am constantly surprised that neither the government nor the airlines seem to give a rat's arse about international airline service to the epicenter of the resources boom in Australia, the northwest., the Pilbara and the Kimberleys - where the money is - and that there is no functioning international airport in that area. PHE can just about handle the E190 (for international) and why would any tourist go there, or KTA, the Pilbara is not ideal for tourists.

But BME is one of the great jewels of Australia and is within A320 range of most of nearer Asia. I guess the old WW2 mentality applies - the Darwin Line - when only the east/southeast and Perth were considered defensible or worth defending.

So I cannot get excited about the lack of Brazil service when (a) Qantas doesn't have an aircraft that can fly it non-stop (b) I dread to think what the fuel bill would be if it could and and (c) there is viable one-stop service (through Oneworld) through SCL.

http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airl...a-releases/aug-2011/5160/global/en

"Qantas Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said flights to Santiago would provide higher connection frequencies across the continent than available through Buenos Aires.

“Direct Qantas flights to Santiago will give Australian businesses and tourists the ideal gateway into the key markets of South America, offering convenient connections to Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia."


The list is actually longer than that, but it remains, for now, a very thin market and the airline cannot do everything. I believe there are other, nearer, much more pressing needs.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-21 03:58:44]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TravellerPlus
Posted 2012-03-21 03:54:20 and read 11323 times.

I've looked at ABS data on visitor arrivals and Australian deaprtures to/from South America

Since 1991, 27% of Australians have had Chile as their primary destination, 22% had Brazil and 51% had another South American country. Inbound only 36% of South American arrivals are from Brazil, the rest are from another South American country. Brazil's share is growing, but the market is still very mixed. The balance between Australians and South Americans is roughly 50/50.

Overall, only 1/3 of travel is being driven by Brazil, 2/3rds is being driven by other South American countries.

This illustrates why SCL is the currently the best hub for serving South America from Eastern Australia. It has links into all markets where people are travelling. Its all very well noting that LAN doesn't serve some larger cities, but if the population demographic of those cities is effectively young and poor, it pool of flyers will be small. A airline planner needs to look more closely where Australians are travelling rather than where the Brazilians live.

Of course, WA resident a.netters have enjoyed one-stop services to Brazil for decades longer than their east coast cousins. It is faster to travel to South America via Johannesburg from there. Interestingly I note that flying from Brisbane to Rio via Johannesburg is 2000mi shorter than flying via LAX.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: MillwallSean
Posted 2012-03-21 04:24:57 and read 11340 times.

Quoting TravellerPlus (Reply 151):

Since 1991, 27% of Australians have had Chile as their primary destination, 22% had Brazil and 51% had another South American country. Inbound only 36% of South American arrivals are from Brazil, the rest are from another South American country. Brazil's share is growing, but the market is still very mixed. The balance between Australians and South Americans is roughly 50/50.

Overall, only 1/3 of travel is being driven by Brazil, 2/3rds is being driven by other South American countries.

This illustrates why SCL is the currently the best hub for serving South America from Eastern Australia. It has links into all markets where people are travelling. Its all very well noting that LAN doesn't serve some larger cities, but if the population demographic of those cities is effectively young and poor, it pool of flyers will be small. A airline planner needs to look more closely where Australians are travelling rather than where the Brazilians live.

Hmm not that I dispute your findings but they do differ pretty substantially from the numbers based upon the last 5 years. (Thats all I have infront of me.)

First my numbers Brazil and Chile stats show more Australians arriving in Brazil in 2010 than into Chile. Alot more. Brazil sees more than double the amount of Australian visitors compared to Chile.

Anyway let me also give you the figures for arrivals into Australia from South America in 2010.
(http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info)

Brazil
Total: 36 166
Students: 10 077

Chile
Total: 11 476
Students: 1 827
Argentina:
Total: 9 701
Students: 355
Peru
Total: 4 131
Students: 717
Colombia
Total: 9 910
Students: 4 185

Brazil is on arrivals in 2010 bigger than all South American countries combined and also sends more than 50% of the total amount of students arriving to Australia from South America.
(Colombias surprisngly high numbers show that an exceptionally high number of Colombians do 3 month English courses while relatively few do university courses something that sets them aside from all other South American countries)

Further more if your statistics are accurate it shows an enourmous growth in Brazil during the last few years which further strengthens mine and Korumans belief that Brazil is the destination that matters in South America.

I fully agree with mariner that serving more points in Asia would be even better.
However in this case we were discussing why QF would start a flight to Santiago when the market in Brazil was so much bigger and Australia exported so much more there.
I believe Santiago is a wrong choice and have showed stats explaining why.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-21 05:31:24 and read 11247 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 147):
Anyway here are some facts:

Fair enough, I should have done a little more research before making such a sweeping statement.

I stand by my point though, that Brazil's economy has little overlap with our own. While those figures might sound large, Australia trades more with countries such as France, Italy, South Africa, the UAE, Finland, Spain, Canada etc.

Quoting koruman (Reply 149):
MillwallSean's figures really confirm what I argued earlier. The only significant South American market for Qantas is Brazil.
Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 152):
However in this case we were discussing why QF would start a flight to Santiago when the market in Brazil was so much bigger and Australia exported so much more there.
I believe Santiago is a wrong choice and have showed stats explaining why.

Wait, am I missing something here? Doesn't QF offer a one stop service between Brazil's most important cities and Sydney (at least they will in a matter of days)? If your arguments are to be accepted (I concede that they are generally strong ones), then what is QF doing that is so wrong? They are providing a high level service (ie newly refurbished 744ER's, and a standard of service far higher than LA and AR) to SCL, and then offering comprehensive set of connections across all of South America, including GRU and GIG.

The only other way you can get a one stop flight between Sydney and Brazil (and back) is using KE's three weekly LAX-GRU service. QF is doing pretty well IMO. The JJ merger will only make things better.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 747m8te
Posted 2012-03-21 05:32:40 and read 11253 times.

Quoting TravellerPlus (Reply 151):
Since 1991, 27% of Australians have had Chile as their primary destination, 22% had Brazil and 51% had another South American country. Inbound only 36% of South American arrivals are from Brazil, the rest are from another South American country. Brazil's share is growing, but the market is still very mixed. The balance between Australians and South Americans is roughly 50/50.
Quoting koruman (Reply 149):
But why not use a 747 on SYD-PPT-GRU?

Well if you are going to do it with a stop over...why not kill two birds with one stone and do SYD-SCL-GRU on the 747 and cover both markets?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-21 05:44:40 and read 11256 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 153):
Wait, am I missing something here? Doesn't QF offer a one stop service between Brazil's most important cities and Sydney

No you're not. QF has the minimum number of stops physically possible between SYD and GRU and GIG.

If it emerged in 6 months time that 50% of pax flying to SCL connected to Brazil I would definitely not faint with shock. However right now there is no plane in service which is either (a) capable of flying SYD-GRU or (b) would be permitted by CASA to do so (77L)

Honestly, I love South America. It is possibly my favourite continent to visit. But we need some perspective...

Quoting mariner (Reply 150):
But no matter how good Australia's trade is with Brazil, it is dwarfed by the trade with Asia and especially China, so it is a greater concern - to me - that Qantas has such limited service to China. If the bilateral is the problem, fix the bilateral.

... Once Australia has flights to Chengdu or Chongqin then we can talk about Brazil

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TravellerPlus
Posted 2012-03-21 11:17:17 and read 11154 times.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 152):
Hmm not that I dispute your findings but they do differ pretty substantially from the numbers based upon the last 5 years. (Thats all I have infront of me.)
Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 152):
Brazil is on arrivals in 2010 bigger than all South American countries combined

My data source was the Australian Bureau of Statistics arrival and departure data since 1991. The numbers you've provided only show that Brazil is no sizeably bigger, with 50.6% of the market. (36,166 arrrivals vs 35,182 for the countries you've listed)

Qantas has signalled intent to serve Brazil, but Sao Paulo is a slot constrained airport. I think of it as the Heathrow of Latin America. For most of the day there are no slots available for new airlines, like Qantas. Currently, Rio lacks the yield and passenger volumes, but that may change as the city builds its banking and oil sector.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 152):
I believe Santiago is a wrong choice

I've never said that there shouldn't be services to Brazil, but believe that for the moment, SCL is a logical and sound business choice as Brazil cannot be reached nonstop and the overall market is far more than Brazil. SCL will position Qantas for longer term growth in the region.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: airnewzealand
Posted 2012-03-21 12:28:11 and read 11139 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 155):
If it emerged in 6 months time that 50% of pax flying to SCL connected to Brazil

This is currently our passenger demographic on our current SYD-EZE route. When we operate it Portuguese and Spanish announcements are done on all flights and it is a portuguese and Spanish language trip due to the high number of portuguese speaking passengers onboard.
It was addressed to the employees that not only moving to SCL was due to oneworld hub but because it makes it easier for our Brazilian passengers to transfer onwards to Brazil via SCL.

PS QF002, the newly reconfigured 744s are great for passenger comfort/seating IFE, but a sad state of affairs when you need to use the restroom. Its shocking how they have taken out 5 restrooms and two crossovers but increased the count of passengers.
Great use of space i will give them that, but when it can take up to 30mins to get into a toilet, passengers are not happy especially in Business and Main Cabin.

Kind Regards

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-21 15:15:09 and read 11020 times.

Quoting airnewzealand (Reply 157):
This is currently our passenger demographic on our current SYD-EZE route. When we operate it Portuguese and Spanish announcements are done on all flights and it is a portuguese and Spanish language trip due to the high number of portuguese speaking passengers onboard.

That's interesting, thanks. But in all honesty, how many Portuguese speakers does QF employ?!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 9MMPD
Posted 2012-03-21 17:50:44 and read 10921 times.

Quoting TravellerPlus (Reply 151):
Of course, WA resident a.netters have enjoyed one-stop services to Brazil for decades longer than their east coast cousins. It is faster to travel to South America via Johannesburg from there. Interestingly I note that flying from Brisbane to Rio via Johannesburg is 2000mi shorter than flying via LAX.

Yes and via DXB with EK and soon DOH with QR.

It would be interesting to see how many Australians are on EK, QR and SQ's flights to Brazil.

PS This thread is staring to feel like Australian/Brazil lol

[Edited 2012-03-21 18:08:48]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZKOKQ
Posted 2012-03-21 17:51:55 and read 10926 times.

Quoting QF175 (Reply 135):

Cant wait to see the interior of this new bird. Wonder if it will be much different to the one they already have.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-21 18:09:15 and read 10895 times.

What about a triangular flight SYD-GRU-EZE-SYD as well as the SYD-SCL one? A 744ER would manage that flight.

The merit in the SCL flight is obvious, so I'm not going to suggest removing that.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: CXfirst
Posted 2012-03-21 18:55:07 and read 10826 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 153):
The only other way you can get a one stop flight between Sydney and Brazil (and back) is using KE's three weekly LAX-GRU service.

Not true, one could also go the other way around the world through DXB. That's one-stop from BNE, MEL, SYD and PER (or through JNB for SYD and PER). But, that is a long trip! There is also DOH for MEL + PER (soon).

As for SCL vs GRU, I agree with the members here that say SCL is the better choice.

Flying non-stop to GRU (if it could be done) is better for the customers going to GRU, but no better for any other passenger. Those heading to SCL, EZE or just about anywhere but Brazil will have to backtrack from GRU. However, going through SCL means very little backtracking. And for those passengers going to Brazil, one-stop through SCL is not a bad option, given the alternatives.

And for the argument about there being no one-stop to a city like Recife, I would argue that Recife is a very small market from Australia (and Koruman, isn't that basically your argument against SCL?)

I think Qantas would be smart to do some heavy advertising in Brazil. The only real problem I see, is that without QF metal landing in Brazil, the market there might not see the possibility of getting to Oz through SCL with LAN.

-CXfirst

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-21 19:05:59 and read 10839 times.

Quoting airnewzealand (Reply 157):
It was addressed to the employees that not only moving to SCL was due to oneworld hub but because it makes it easier for our Brazilian passengers to transfer onwards to Brazil via SCL.

I hope the employees saw through that piece of dishonest spin as easily as Brazil-based passengers must.

Santiago offers no connections whatsoever to several major cities which are among South America's Top Ten by population. I'll also add the demographic percentage of the population as unfortunately it is still one of the best indicators of an area's wealth and distribution of wealth in Brazil.

Belo Horizonte (6 million, 47% white, 42% mixed, 10% black)
Porto Alegre (4 million, 79% white, 10% mixed, 10% black)
Recife (4 million, 41% white, 49% mixed, 8% black)
Salvador (5 million, 19% white, 52% mixed, 28% black)

For the sake of comparison:
Sao Paulo (20 million, 61% white, 31% mixed, 6% black)
Rio de Janeiro (6 million, 51% white, 37% mixed, 11% black)
Santiago (7 million, predominantly white)
Buenos Aires (15 million, 89% white, 7% mixed, 1% black)


Qantas' understanding of the economy and demographics of South America reminds me of the late British "Big Brother" star Jade Goody, who famously thought that Rio de Janeiro was a person.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-21 19:06:40 and read 10843 times.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 162):
I think Qantas would be smart to do some heavy advertising in Brazil. The only real problem I see, is that without QF metal landing in Brazil, the market there might not see the possibility of getting to Oz through SCL with LAN.

They've been able to do this for a number of years. The only thing QF are adding is no longer needing to stop in AKL.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 153):
you can get a one stop flight between Sydney and Brazil (and back) is using KE's three weekly LAX-GRU service.

Interesting suggestion. Main limitation would be that KE are a Skyteam airline. I guess you could use DL out of SYD (only), which isn't competitive with using QF SYD-SCL, I wouldn't think.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-21 19:40:25 and read 10814 times.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 161):
What about a triangular flight SYD-GRU-EZE-SYD as well as the SYD-SCL one? A 744ER would manage that flight.

The merit in the SCL flight is obvious, so I'm not going to suggest removing that.
Quoting airnewzealand (Reply 157):
This is currently our passenger demographic on our current SYD-EZE route

I actually think that the triangular route is a good idea.

However, it would have to come at the expense of SCL. airnewzealand has told us that 50% of QF's pax are going to Brazil. We can assume that a largish minority would still want Buenos Aeires as their final destination, especially with AR going down the drain.

That leaves the SCL flight with Chile and the rest of the continent. In order to determine the actual usefulness of SCL as a hub to LatAm for QF I've compiled a list of the quickest OW routings from SYD to LIM, LPB, UIO, GYE, BOG and CCS via SCL and LAX...

SYD-LIM:

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
SCL-LIM 15:55-17:55 LA632
LIM-SCL 07:10-11:35 LA531
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:50 QF28

SYD-LAX 13:05-09:45 QF11
LAX-LIM 13:25-23:59 LA601
LIM-LAX 12:55-18:50 LA2604
LAX-SYD 22:10-06:10 QF12

LAX is 3 hours longer outbound, 8 hours longer inbound

SYD-LPB:

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
SCL-LPB 11:55-15:30 LA968
LPB-SCL 16:15-21:50 LA969
-overnight stay required-
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:50 QF28

SYD-DFW 13:25-13:45 QF7
DFW-MIA 17:30-21:15 AA1046
MIA-LPB 22:40-05:15 AA922
LPB-MIA 06:20-15:50 AA922
MIA-LAX 18:05-20:40 AA231
LAX-SYD 23:50-07:40 QF108

LAX is 10 hours longer outbound, about the same (45 min difference) inbound - don't forget unless you stay in the airport Australians would need a Chilean tourist visa (~$90) for the layover.

SYD-UIO

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
SCL-GYE 17:50-21:05 LA1446
GYE-UIO 22:15-23:10 LA1442
UIO-LIM 20:50-23:05 LA2581
LIM-SCL 00:25-05:10 LA2639
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:50 QF28


SYD-LAX 10:15-06:50 QF107
LAX-MIA 09:00-17:00 AA280
MIA-UIO 19:55-23:00 AA967
UIO-MIA 09:45-14:55 AA966
MIA-LAX 18:05-20:45 AA231
LAX-SYD 23:50-07:40 QF108

LAX is 40 mins quicker outbound, 2 hours longer inbound - call it equal.

SYD-GYE

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
SCL-GYE 17:50-21:05 LA1446
GYE-UIO 17:35-18:30 XL1518 (XL = LAN Ecuador)
UIO-LIM 20:50-23:05 LA2581
LIM-SCL 00:25-05:10 LA2639
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:50 QF28

SYD-LAX 10:15-06:50 QF107
LAX-MIA 09:00-17:00 AA280
MIA-GYE 18:50-22:05 AA933
GYE-MIA 07:20-09:40 AA938
MIA-LAX 15:35-18:15 AA277
LAX-SYD 22:10-06:10 QF12

LAX is 30 mins longer outbound, almost exactly equal inbound - call it equal

SYD-BOG

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
SCL-BOG 18:25-22:30 LA572
BOG-SCL 23:55-06:45 LA571
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:50 QF28

SYD-LAX 13:05-09:45 QF11
LAX-MIA 23:50-07:40 AA1804
MIA-BOG 09:45-12:20 AA913
BOG-MIA 08:00-12:55 AA2170
MIA-LAX 15:35-18:15 AA277
LAX-SYD 22:10-06:10 QF12

LAX is 6 hours longer outbound, 5 hours longer inbound - call for SCL.

SYD-CCS

SYD-SCL 09:45-09:55 QF27
-overnight stay required-
SCL-LIM 08:20-10:20 LA2638
LIM-CCS 12:45-17:25 LA2564
CCS-LIM 18:55-22:45 LA2565
LIM-SCL 00:25-05:10 LA2639
SCL-SYD 13:35-16:40 QF28

SYD-LAX 10:15-06:50 QF107
LAX-MIA 09:00-17:00 AA280
MIA-CCS 20:25-23:05 AA2133
CCS-MIA 11:05-15:05 AA2106
MIA-LAX 18:05-20:45 AA231
LAX-SYD 23:50-07:40 QF108

no comparison - LAX.


Right. So of the major markets in South America outside of Chile, Argentina and Brazil, SCL is more convenient place to change planes than LAX if traveling to Peru, Bolivia and Colombia.

Therefore if QF were to adopt thegeeks proposal (which I think is a good one - not that I think that it will happen) then SCL would be unviable. Chile+Peru+Bolivia+Colombia is not a big market ex Australia   

Go back to codesharing with LA, the rest of SAmerica is simply too small.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-21 20:08:35 and read 10782 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 163):
I hope the employees saw through that piece of dishonest spin as easily as Brazil-based passengers must.

I know South America pretty well, both coasts (mugged in Guayaquil!) and I don't think what Qantas said is spin or dishonest.

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-21 20:19:59 and read 10757 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 163):
I hope the employees saw through that piece of dishonest spin as easily as Brazil-based passengers must

Koruman, regardless of whether there are important markets unserved in Brazil by LA (yes, this was acknowledged about 50 posts ago!) there is NO denying that LAN have more flights to Brazil from SCL than EZE. Therefore if QF want to provide connections with LA to Brazil then there is no better place to do.

Now, maybe the underlying assumption in QF's reasoning is wrong (I don't want to cover that ground again). However, if we accept their assumptions for the time being then there is absolutely nothing untrue about that statement.


You seemed to have degenerated to simply attacking LA/QF/SCL at will, without actually providing a principled argument anymore.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-21 21:00:24 and read 10710 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 167):
You seemed to have degenerated to simply attacking LA/QF/SCL at will, without actually providing a principled argument anymore

I don't know, I think I should get an award for weaving Jade Goody into an aviation thread.

Seriously, I see two major Qantas symptoms here:

1. Come up with a dog's breakfast of a solution to try to enter a market for which you lack aircraft with appropriate capacity and range.

2. Expect passengers to funnel to their actual destination via a hub which they have no interest in transiting.

Santiago is fine for a part of the market wanting to go to Spanish-speaking South America. And it's already served by its national airline.

But it seems very strange to duplicate that existing gateway as a means of getting people to the other side of the continent.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-03-21 23:04:03 and read 10599 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
Come up with a dog's breakfast of a solution to try to enter a market for which you lack aircraft with appropriate capacity and range.

You mean transfer of an existing service from a city, EZE, with virtually no ability to feed pax onwards to a city, SCL, where an alliance partner can feed traffic onwards? Yes I see the dogs breakfast there.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
Expect passengers to funnel to their actual destination via a hub which they have no interest in transiting.

That's what travellers do every day in travel. You do it at LAX, DFW, SIN, BKK, HKG or where-ever the airline you're flying with is based out of. What QF is doing here is no different to what they do everywhere else. They're keeping their toe in South America on their own metal with an intention to grow on top of an existing alliance partner. This thread is full of examples of how this would work and just because SCL doesn't offer the most connections, who cares? Prior to DFW service if you wanted to get to the vast majority of US destinations East of the Mississippi you'd have to transit ORD or DFW and double connect. LAN/TAM will enable you to do the same thing. So this is really just more of what we're already doing.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
But it seems very strange to duplicate that existing gateway as a means of getting people to the other side of the continent.

It's the same with flying NYC-LHR to connect to Moscow. Yet it's common practice in the airline alliance world.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-21 23:06:31 and read 10598 times.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 159):
Yes and via DXB with EK and soon DOH with QR.

It would be interesting to see how many Australians are on EK, QR and SQ's flights to Brazil.
Quoting CXfirst (Reply 162):
Not true, one could also go the other way around the world through DXB. That's one-stop from BNE, MEL, SYD and PER (or through JNB for SYD and PER). But, that is a long trip! There is also DOH for MEL + PER (soon).

I realised this very shortly after posting! I was going to edit my post, but figured that it's such an unattractive routing that it will probably get very close to no passengers... Bit like when EK tried to advertise SYD-LAX flights a few years ago...

Quoting ZKOKQ (Reply 160):
Cant wait to see the interior of this new bird. Wonder if it will be much different to the one they already have.
This video might interest you (if you haven't already seen it)...

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
1. Come up with a dog's breakfast of a solution to try to enter a market for which you lack aircraft with appropriate capacity and range.

This is hardly a dog's breakfast solution. If QF flew straight to GRU then they would be criticised for failing to service the other half of the traffic in South America in one stop. Flying to SCL they can service 100% of the South American market, flying to GIG/GRU they can only effectively service the 50% that are going to Brazil (using your figures here, or at least the figures you supported).

Everybody goes off their head about QF failing to serve those pax travelling to destinations across Europe without the necessity to overfly the entire continent to transit at LHR, yet here you're advocating for QF to do exactly the same thing! It's not working in Europe, so why would it work here!?

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
2. Expect passengers to funnel to their actual destination via a hub which they have no interest in transiting.

What other options do pax have? And what other airline on the face of the planet doesn't do this?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-21 23:23:30 and read 10593 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
Expect passengers to funnel to their actual destination via a hub which they have no interest in transiting

Seems to have worked for EK and goodness know how many other airlines

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
it's already served by its national airline.

But it seems very strange to duplicate that existing gateway as a means of getting people to the other side of the continent.

That's a good point. I've always thought that strengthening relations with LAN would have been more sensible than competing directly. Does anyone know of any reason why they couldn't get JSA if they tried?

Quoting qf002 (Reply 170):
Everybody goes off their head about QF failing to serve those pax travelling to destinations across Europe without the necessity to overfly the entire continent to transit at LHR, yet here you're advocating for QF to do exactly the same thing!

Exactly. LHR is far and away the largest destination to Europe. The UK may even exceed the 50% market share Brazil has (I don't know - please correct me). And yet flying to LHR due to all the economic and historical reasons as well as it being where the largest number of people want to go doesn't excuse QF's diabolical presence in Europe. If TK joined OW (hypothetically) I would like to see QF fly to IST.

The same applies in South America. And - as established many moons ago - AA have a strong presence in Northern South America where LAN are weaker if one is desperate to fly OW.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-21 23:27:57 and read 10586 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 171):
And yet flying to LHR due to all the economic and historical reasons as well as it being where the largest number of people want to go doesn't excuse QF's diabolical presence in Europe

Indeed, but flying to BER would do much to change this. Who knows? Maybe QF will actually do it.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: aussie747
Posted 2012-03-21 23:31:43 and read 10602 times.

I can tell you now Qantas will not service any other Sth American city. It is a strong VFR market and yields would be too low especially on such an ULH (Ultra Long haul) destination such as Sao Paulo or Rio.
As it is it struggles to support JFK and that is a premium ULH market.
Unless QF reduces its cost base they will not be flying to any other cities it has on its existing schedule. Period.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-22 03:14:41 and read 10330 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
2. Expect passengers to funnel to their actual destination via a hub which they have no interest in transiting.

Sorry, but what about your idea... then fly passengers to Brazil and then, if they want to go to any other destination they would have to back track all the way to SCL... that works. You are then assuming that everyone wants to go to the one destination in Brazil, and that is not true. IF TAM were to join OW, then sure, your argument gains some more credit, but the current option is the best, given OW partners.

Quoting koruman (Reply 168):
1. Come up with a dog's breakfast of a solution to try to enter a market for which you lack aircraft with appropriate capacity and range.

Well its certainly better than your beloved DJ's solution, or NZ's solution. How it is a dog's breakfast solution is beyond me as passengers can gain 1 stop service from SYD to MOST South American destinations. Sure, there are a few examples, but you always seem to pick the negatives with QF, rather than looking at the overall picture and seeing how this service works for so many.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-22 04:02:35 and read 10271 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 174):
Sorry, but what about your idea... then fly passengers to Brazil and then, if they want to go to any other destination they would have to back track all the way to SCL

That's not my suggestion - not at all.

I believe that there should be two flights operated by 240 seater aircraft: SYD-SCL for the lower-yielding Spanish-speaking South American countries and SYD-GRU for the much higher-yielding Brazilian market.

And if there is only going to be one flight, I'd operate that flight to GRU from the day TAM enters OneWorld, and codeshare on LAN Chile for passengers who want to travel to/from the Spanish-speaking nations.

Who exactly has to backtrack in that model?

The Boeing 789 is supposed to have an 8500 nm range. As for until that is delivered, maybe Qantas could approach Thai for the 4 A345s they are supposed to be about to write off   At least they can fly SYD-GRU non-stop without being subject to ETOPS, and Mr Joyce likes "capital-light" Asian investments. And they could be configured 30 Skybed (like the A333), 28 Premium Economy and 201 Economy. Cue "flying fuel tank" comments..............

[Edited 2012-03-22 04:12:44]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-22 04:12:45 and read 10262 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 175):
The Boeing 789 is supposed to have an 8500 nm range. As for until that is delivered, maybe Qantas could approach Thai for the 4 A345s they are supposed to be about to write off   At least they can fly SYD-GRU non-stop without being subject to ETOPS. Cue "flying fuel tank" comments..............

Well I have nothing against the A345 but I think it would be a waste to invest in 4 aircraft, which would be a costly exercise and then flying them to GRU as surely there would be higher yielding markets (i.e. maybe all J SYD-LHR like SQ) . In terms of the 789, that might have merit and QF might do it, but that is still a while away. I think SYD-GRU really is a one-stop market, and maybe the 789 will change that but until then I don't see it happening, it wouldn't be worth the whole new sub fleet

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-23 06:40:29 and read 9988 times.

* Darwin-based Airnorth will introduce an additional frequency on its Darwin to Karratha (via Broome & Port Hedland) service. From 04JUL12 services will be increased to thrice weekly
* Creditors for failed Air Australia unanimously voted to place the carrier into liquidation on 23MAR12. On 17FEB12 the carrier went into administration with a mounting debt (said to be $85m)
* Virgin Australia has confirmed it will open a new lounge in Hobart in 2013. From September the Airline will also introduce an additional daily service between Melbourne and Hobart
* The ACCC has issued draft approval for Virgin Australia and Skywest's codeshare plan. The plan is aimed at tapping into the increasingly lucrative mining routes within Western Australia
* QantasLink has confirmed it once again fly to the Victorian ski fields this winter with DH8 services from Sydney to Mount Hotham. The Airline will offer 100 flights between 29JUN-09SEP
* Qantas will place into service its 4th newly-refurbished 747-400 later this month. By JUL QF will be operating the refurbed aircraft to JFK/LAX/DFW/SCL. BNE-SIN will see the new aircraft from NOV12
* Alliance Airlines has announced it will begin FIFO services from PER to the Argyle diamond mines (WA) from 16APR12. The Airline has also flagged the possibility of operating flights from SYD/BNE

Virgin Australia will now take delivery of its first new-build A330-200 VH-XFC next week.

[Edited 2012-03-23 06:42:55]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-23 06:58:14 and read 9991 times.

Quoting QF175 (Reply 177):
Virgin Australia has confirmed it will open a new lounge in Hobart in 2013.

Cue a rapid QF refurb, using the furniture displaced by the introduction of new stuff in SYD and MEL over the past few years...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QF175
Posted 2012-03-23 07:11:03 and read 9985 times.

Per haggis73's post in the 'AR Bleeding' thread, it looks like Aerolineas may be implementing drastic changes to its Australia/New Zealand schedules.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...ral_aviation/read.main/5411354/#96

Quote:

From an email I received at work on Friday morning,

"Aerolineas Argentinas have advised that they are withdrawing their services at the end of Jun with the last services operating on 30Jun".

This is only for AKL as far as I know.

A quick check of the AR website (read booking engine) confirms that standalone SYD-AKL and AKL-EZE flights are not bookable past 30JUN12. Conversely, SYD-EZE is bookable past 30JUN12, however the schedule still reflects a stop in Auckland.

With Qantas' last service to Buenos Aires being today (24MAR12), it would appear (in light of the reservation block as above) that Aerolineas is retreating from Auckland, instead choosing to focus on nonstop Sydney to Buenos Aires services. There is a chance they may have not yet blocked SYD for sale (if it is indeed a total pullout of Australia/New Zealand that is on the cards), however I find this unlikely given as of tomorrow they have a monopoly on SYD-EZE services (if they do indeed proceed with suspending one-stop services via Auckland).

Any thoughts?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: tayser
Posted 2012-03-23 07:22:34 and read 9985 times.

MEL-HBA is pretty much VA's for the taking re: premium traffic.

currently 4x daily on VA
only 2x daily on QF (QF group is backed up by all the JQ frequencies 5-6 daily)

Just to confirm, VA are pretty much planning to remove all the premium economy seats and replace with a domestic J seat in their 737s, yeah?

Looking at the relative connection times incoming from LHR or LAX into MEL or SYD and then onward to HBA - QF10 is a "Good" time to connect with the first of the 2 daily MEL HBA flights, but the QF94 connection is horrible (6 hour layover in MEL) but the VA12 connection is fairly seamless (2.5 hours between arrival in MEL and departure for HBA). The QF108 connection to the only SYD-HBA flight is also a 6 hour gap whereas the VA2 gap with the first of the 2 daily SYD-HBA VA flights is again quite good (2-2.5 hours).

Two of the 3 incoming SQ flights and the 1 EY flight into MEL pretty much provide a good connection to HBA & LST on VA as well

I realise MEL-HBA (and MEL-LST) is more about O&D and less about connections (hence why JQ have to many frequencies), but is QF practically ceding Tasmania to VA?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ADDICT4QF
Posted 2012-03-23 20:39:34 and read 9795 times.

QF B747-400 VH-OJO, delivered in May 1992, has her last revenue service next week before being prepared for retirement.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: vhebb
Posted 2012-03-23 23:37:20 and read 9648 times.

Are you sure VH-OJO is being retired?

QF have announced they are retiring 6 B744s and have 6 B744s currently listed for sale:

VH-OJG
VH-OJH
VH-OJJ
VH-OJB
VH-OJP
VH-OJF

B744 VH-OJO you mention has never been listed for sale?

Thanks

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: timb777
Posted 2012-03-24 01:27:48 and read 9531 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 149):
But why not use a 747 on SYD-PPT-GRU?
Quoting koruman (Reply 149):
And the French Polynesian government might consider underwriting the PPT-GRU sector, as they are on record as wanting to grow Brazilian tourism to Bora Bora, which traditionally routes in on LAN Chile via Santiago.
Quoting koruman (Reply 149):
Sydney-Tahiti = 3,806 miles
Tahiti-Sao Paulo = 6,541 miles.

I could see this working with the 787, especially if TN goes bust, which wouldn't surprise me given it's recent troubles. It would be a good way of the French govt acting to keep PPT tourist numbers up from SYD (currently routed through AKL), and open up an emerging, growing market (GRU). QF could also connect Santiago pax onto LAN at PPT... (additional frequency / days where no nonstop option). My only worry would be that the PPT open air terminal can be a bit uncomfortable for layovers......

It may even work with an a332 (ETOPS issues?)

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-24 01:40:06 and read 9521 times.

Quoting timb777 (Reply 183):
It may even work with an a332 (ETOPS issues?)

The 787 would have the same ETOPS issues than the 332.

The issue with a SYD-PPT-GRU would be yields, so unless the underwriting was significant, the route would likely be unviable.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-03-24 06:05:03 and read 9331 times.

Quoting QF175 (Reply 179):
A quick check of the AR website (read booking engine) confirms that standalone SYD-AKL and AKL-EZE flights are not bookable past 30JUN12. Conversely, SYD-EZE is bookable past 30JUN12, however the schedule still reflects a stop in Auckland.

Which aircraft will AR utilize on the SYD-EZE route...? Is the A343 capable of operating this route non-stop...?

EK413

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-24 06:18:38 and read 9336 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 185):
Is the A343 capable of operating this route non-stop

SYD-EZE is almost exactly the same length as SYD-DXB, so I'm thinking an A345 would be necessary.

Cue speculation that AR is about to buy the ex-TG birds  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-03-24 07:27:23 and read 9267 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 186):

Cue speculation that AR is about to buy the ex-TG birds

Was this before or after AR had been reported to be losing 2.2 million dollars a day AR Bleeding : Daily Loses Of 2.2 Million Dolars (by Gonzalo Mar 12 2012 in Civil Aviation) even though I would love to see the A345 in AR sleek new livery I don't see it happening...

EK413

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-24 09:48:05 and read 9207 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 186):
SYD-EZE is almost exactly the same length as SYD-DXB, so I'm thinking an A345 would be necessary.

Don't AR have a handful of A342's? They would have the necessary range.

In any case I find it extremely unlikely. They can't afford the fuel and won't gain any additional yield moving to nonstop from EZE. I also find it unlikely that they would be able to keep it up without the additional traffic out of AKL...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: thegeek
Posted 2012-03-24 18:02:14 and read 9051 times.

No ETOPS issues for SYD-PPT-GRU: http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=s...&RANGE-COLOR=&MAP-STYLE=&ETOPS=180

An A332 could do it, but I'm guessing that unless TN stop flying to AKL there is no incentive in it.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-24 20:49:31 and read 8919 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 187):
Was this before or after AR had been reported to be losing 2.2 million dollars a day

I was been sarcastic, hence the smiley!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZK-NBT
Posted 2012-03-24 21:32:37 and read 8875 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 185):
Which aircraft will AR utilize on the SYD-EZE route...? Is the A343 capable of operating this route non-stop...?
Quoting qf002 (Reply 188):
Don't AR have a handful of A342's?

The 342, 343 would be able to do it East bound. AR loaded EZE-SYD non stop when QF announced EZE in 2008 but later removed the flights before they started.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-24 21:35:12 and read 8883 times.

In regards to the MEL terminal expansion, it does seem very odd that there is no real thought being placed towards International space provision for the future. I would have thought that T3 could have become a mixed use pier, to facilitate its utilisation for both domestic and International flights, but it does not appear to be the case in the plan.

Mind you, looking at the airports masterplan it looks like the current main T3 pier is actually likely to go completely in the future and replaced by a smaller docking area. The fact that they are looking to expand the pier though in this phase really goes against that though, so who knows what their ultimate aim is.

Overall though, the LCC focus of the new T4 will likely see atleast some gates not have any aerobridges, keeping costs down for TT and maybe JQ in the future.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: cwalt2
Posted 2012-03-25 13:43:12 and read 8491 times.

Qantas ceo Alan Joyce and Jetstar ceo Bruce Buchanan are to make a "major announcement" this morning. Any ideas on what it could be? 787 delivery date perhaps?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-03-25 14:58:20 and read 8427 times.

Quoting cwalt2 (Reply 193):
Qantas ceo Alan Joyce and Jetstar ceo Bruce Buchanan are to make a "major announcement" this morning

It's the creation of Jetstar Hong Kong, a new venture with China Eastern.  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-25 18:23:24 and read 8267 times.

So Qantas has now got into bed with two Skyteam airlines: Vietnam Airlines (who control Jetstar Pacific) and now China Eastern, who will clearly control Jetstar Hong Kong.

And of course this will threaten Cathay Pacific in the immediate aftermath of the breakdown of negotiations with Malaysia Airlines.

I wonder whether three years from now Qantas will actually be in Oneworld. Just as I wonder whether American Airlines will even exist, let alone be a Oneworld member.

Would Joyce be audacious enough to explore the option of joining Skyteam? And where would that leave Delta V?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: timb777
Posted 2012-03-25 18:26:06 and read 8266 times.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 184):
The 787 would have the same ETOPS issues than the 332.
The issue with a SYD-PPT-GRU would be yields, so unless the underwriting was significant, the route would likely be unviable.
Quoting thegeek (Reply 189):
Reply 189, posted Fri Mar 23 2012 22:02:14 your local time (1 day 10 minutes ago) and read 816 times:
No ETOPS issues for SYD-PPT-GRU: http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=s...&RANGE-COLOR=&MAP-STYLE=&ETOPS=180

An A332 could do it, but I'm guessing that unless TN stop flying to AKL there is no incentive in it.

Interesting that the 332 could do the PPT - GRU sector. I suppose, if a LAN 763 can make it to South America, then so can a 332. Re yields, if one is willing to pay 400USD per night for a hotel on Moorea or Bora Bora (which seems to be about the going rate), then there is clearly potential to be carrying high yield leisure pax. Sure, it’s not as high yielding as business pax which there is little of into PPT (Except the CDG flight with French govt traffic), but without stats at hand, I would say that the yields into PPT are decent. When NZ operated PPT-LAX on the 763, there was no problems filling up the J cabin.

However, if the yields prove to be low, then it could be a good fit for Jetstar. (through to GRU).

On a side note, does anyone know what’s happening to the strategic 332's? Could QF be interested in buying them? (are they the same engines?)

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 6thfreedom
Posted 2012-03-25 19:30:55 and read 8197 times.

Silk Air services to Darwin kick off today as well..

http://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-ai...=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-25 19:37:13 and read 8195 times.

Quoting timb777 (Reply 196):
I would say that the yields into PPT are decent. When NZ operated PPT-LAX on the 763, there was no problems filling up the J cabin.

Like the HNL flight that simply refuses to die, when you have a "premium" leisure destination that people are willing to assign a high value to then J demand is there. After all, which Caribbean islands does BA not fly to?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-25 21:44:06 and read 8071 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 195):
Would Joyce be audacious enough to explore the option of joining Skyteam? And where would that leave Delta V?

No chance UNLESS BA move across as well and AA does actually go under. QF has its whole network built around its OW partners (SCL, LHR, LAX, DFW, NRT even HKG) so I don't see them moving. The only way I would ever see them changing is if they got into bed with SQ, and in that case I would see it more likely that SQ would join One World as I would argue OneWorld has more to offer to them than Star.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-03-26 01:48:16 and read 7870 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 190):

Totally agree its a smart move considering SCL is a OW hub...

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 199):

Too late don't you think considering VA have jumped into bed with SQ...

EK413

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-26 01:53:12 and read 7877 times.

The QF plan for Asia is falling into place, piece by piece.

Capture the LCC market potential with JQ partnerships, whilst at the same time using those partners to look to the future as broader deals. It gives great leverage in a strategic sense to form these deals now.

SIN, HKG, NRT will now all have a substantial QF Group presence, along with having a smaller base in Vietnam, with its Australian and NZ flights also. Very broad network.

I can see QF continuing to join the dots over the next few years with JQ as a major driver of growth, continuing to consolidate its mainline ops to better connect to its partners route networks.

Overall, a solid plan, and one that will likely give it a great way of building its fundamentals first and then building from there.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-26 02:05:27 and read 7906 times.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 201):
The QF plan for Asia is falling into place, piece by piece.

Perhaps in terms of the low end of the market, but at the same time they're falling to pieces at the top end...

But I agree that JQ has been very steadily and quietly growing -- it's pretty astonishing to realise the coverage the brand will have in 12 months time across 4 Asian bases. Now they just need to set up inside China across 2-3 cities and they will be the only truly Asia-wide airline.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-26 02:33:53 and read 7846 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 202):
Perhaps in terms of the low end of the market, but at the same time they're falling to pieces at the top end...

As I said though, that is something it can work on with its partners. It will struggle operating many routes on its own, even in some peoples most optimistic viewpoints.

Look to QF to operate to a few key Asian ports at best on its own.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 202):
But I agree that JQ has been very steadily and quietly growing -- it's pretty astonishing to realise the coverage the brand will have in 12 months time across 4 Asian bases. Now they just need to set up inside China across 2-3 cities and they will be the only truly Asia-wide airline.

Thats what this MU plan may deliver over time. It atleast gives to opportunity to go further down the track.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-26 03:05:53 and read 7803 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 200):
Too late don't you think considering VA have jumped into bed with SQ...

100% agree, it was more a total hypothetical, was more pointing out that QF will never change alliances. I don't see QF/SQ ever partnering up, even though it would make sense (especially with BA as well)

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 201):
The QF plan for Asia is falling into place, piece by piece.

Capture the LCC market potential with JQ partnerships, whilst at the same time using those partners to look to the future as broader deals. It gives great leverage in a strategic sense to form these deals now.

SIN, HKG, NRT will now all have a substantial QF Group presence, along with having a smaller base in Vietnam, with its Australian and NZ flights also. Very broad network.

I can see QF continuing to join the dots over the next few years with JQ as a major driver of growth, continuing to consolidate its mainline ops to better connect to its partners route networks.

Overall, a solid plan, and one that will likely give it a great way of building its fundamentals first and then building from there.

Hold up... that sounded like you said something good about QF... just amazed, haven't heard that on this forum in many months. But you are very true, there are now 6 Jetstars (Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand) and have obviously created very good money for the QF group. I think the argument that QF is propping up JQ is now gone, as it wouldn't make sense with the increasing expansion

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-26 03:52:46 and read 7739 times.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 201):

The QF plan for Asia is falling into place, piece by piece.

Yes, it certainly is.

My daughter was hoping to go out with the handsome, classy, well-educated Singaporean boy from a good family, whose dad drove a Rolls Royce. Unfortunately that boy's family made her date a Virgin instead, and so my daughter set her sights lower.

Then she found a Malaysian boy who was well-dressed, and whose family seemed well off (dad drives a VW) until it emerged that all the goods had been bought on credit and they were actually bankrupt. And still the young Malaysian man didn't want to be seen dead with my daughter.

Now she's decided to go out with the boy from the People's Republic of China. His parents are in the Communist Party, and have a reputation for making up the rules as they go along and for being utterly ruthless. I'm not sure who's using who, and where this is going to end. It's a bit like when she dated the Vietnamese boy whose parents were also in the Communist Party. That relationship finished with my daughter in jail, which might be why she's viewed as damaged goods in the neighbourhood.

Yes, I'm starting to understand Qantas' plan for Asia. Rank promiscuity, and the hope that one day a prince will fall in love with the special trick. Like Wallis Simpson and the Singapore Kiss.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-26 04:08:26 and read 7704 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 205):

Ah was waiting for it, so far all the discussion had been positive, but then koruman joins the conversation and we have to go back to bashing for the sake of bashing, rather than looking's at the merits of the conversation. China will be the powerhouse of the next 50 years, so it makes perfect sense to me, more so than SIN or KUL ever did. Im sure if they did form in SIN/KUL you would complain that they should form in China. What about the fact that they already have a SIN hub, and NRT, and soon HKG? So ticking off the three big regions (China/Japan/SE Asia).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: koruman
Posted 2012-03-26 04:21:12 and read 7682 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 206):
China will be the powerhouse of the next 50 years, so it makes perfect sense to me, more so than SIN or KUL ever did.

Firstly, we are talking about three aircraft based in Hong Kong SAR, not China.

Secondly, the problem with every Qantas Asian fantasy is this. They are outsiders in a part of the world where the airlines directly or indirectly belong to the governments, governments which don't hesitate to change the rules to fit their agenda. As we've already seen in Vietnam, the only danger greater than failure is the danger of success.

Either Qantas is making this strategy up as it goes along or it is unaware of the comedy of its contradictions. Isn't this the same Hong Kong from which it has just stopped flying to London? So what is it, an opportunity or a failed port?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Flyingsottsman
Posted 2012-03-26 04:57:18 and read 7626 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 207):
Either Qantas is making this strategy up as it goes along or it is unaware of the comedy of its contradictions

I dont think Qantas realy know what they are doing or what they want its like they think Red Q was a good idea at the time looks like that wont happen they seem to be clutching at staws or going into panick mode. They must think Jet Star is going to be their saviour, trying to set up Jet Star every where, whats going to be next, JetStar America?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Flyingsottsman
Posted 2012-03-26 05:11:36 and read 7629 times.

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 40):
Wait, is it confirmed QF will start PER-JNB

Great news for Perth.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 199):
Would Joyce be audacious enough to explore the option of joining Skyteam? And where would that leave Delta V?

No way QF is a major player with OW in this part of the world, the conections it gives BA and AA here in Australia, not to mention the OW European carriers that go as far as SIN/HGK which QF pick up from there.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-26 05:42:55 and read 7570 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 207):
the problem with every Qantas Asian fantasy is this. They are outsiders in a part of the world

If you finished your sentence there then I think you would be bang on the money. (I'm not too familiar with the nature of government intervention in Asia so I won't comment on that)

Asia is something which is very hard to 'get right' and it requires a lot of local knowledge. Yes, I know they have local partners for each venture, but it really feels like Qantas go in with all guns blazing and declare that it's their way or the high way.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 206):
Ah was waiting for it, so far all the discussion had been positive, but then koruman joins the conversation and we have to go back to bashing for the sake of bashing, rather than looking's at the merits of the conversation

To be fair to Koruman, his analogy neatly surmises what a farce this has been.

Quoting koruman (Reply 207):
the same Hong Kong from which it has just stopped flying to London? So what is it, an opportunity or a failed port?

To be fair to Qantas we're talking about totally different markets...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-26 05:45:08 and read 7570 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 205):

Here's how your story goes in my eyes:

Your daughter is rejected by the Singaporean family, who think they know better for their son. Of course, it turns out that the Virgin they wanted him to date had little to offer in return, and simply wanted to access their vast fortune.

She turned to the Malaysian boy, whose family were working hard to move themselves up the social ladder. But their desires in life didn't match up, and the chemistry wasn't there. They parted on good terms, agreeing to remain close friends in the future, just not in that way.

Your daughter then noticed a boy who was often looked down upon by the others she had dated. He wasn't overly flamboyant or outrageous, but got the job done and was gaining value and wealth exponentially. The relationship wasn't the one she had expected, but they shared common goals in life, and were able to come together to complete each other (awww). This boy grew extremely wealthy very quickly. He could soon boast more power and influence than she could, but she remained supported by him.

And if this was a daytime TV show, then there's be an awkward tension between your daughter and the man who is perfect for her, the young man from Hong Kong...

My conclusion -- the situation is not as dire as you like to think it is. From where I'm sitting, QF is the only western airline that has any hope of being relevant in Asia in 30-40 years time.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: 6thfreedom
Posted 2012-03-26 06:21:05 and read 7539 times.

This thread has turned into a wills and boons romance, that I'm thoroughly enjoying.
Never thought we would see it on a-net of all places!

Can someone provide the same romance analogy for virgin blue/Australia?

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ZuluAlpha
Posted 2012-03-26 08:18:04 and read 7507 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 205):
Quoting qf002 (Reply 211):
Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 212):

I can see the cover of the book now, some semi-shirted guy, long waiving dark hair, holding a girl, close to his semi shirted chest, her head thrown back in a look of ecstasy, A jetstar tail in the background, the title of this book ... "Wanna get High on Jestar!"

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: jupiter2
Posted 2012-03-26 08:27:32 and read 7506 times.

Yer...... Ansett had to bend over the barrel, forced by all parties concerned with the business and well, they got........

Along came the upstart Virgin, couldn't believe it's luck, all these people ready to jump onboard her and ride her away into the skies.

Soon all that was left was the not so virginal, Virgin and the quaint red arse across the field with the rodent on the tail.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-26 10:39:51 and read 7468 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 210):
To be fair to Koruman, his analogy neatly surmises what a farce this has been.

How has it been a farce?

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-26 11:16:06 and read 7466 times.

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 212):
Can someone provide the same romance analogy for virgin blue/Australia?

I fear we're going a little off topic here...

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 213):
I can see the cover of the book now, some semi-shirted guy, long waiving dark hair, holding a girl, close to his semi shirted chest, her head thrown back in a look of ecstasy, A jetstar tail in the background, the title of this book ... "Wanna get High on Jestar!"

This concept would translate well into a movie down the track, I think we need to get onto some publishers and lock in a deal!! I think we need to have them standing on the wing though, perhaps with the plane about to take off on the runway...

Quoting mariner (Reply 215):
How has it been a farce?

According to the media coverage, QF's whole high end Asian strategy has just involved AJ moving from airline to airline, country to country, trying to make some deal with someone for a premium airline in Asia. How much of this is true, I'm not sure. I'm certainly wary that the media are looking for headlines, but the fact is that it's been 18 months since the original plans were announced, and no doubt talks started well before this announcement. Nothing has yet happened, and everything we're hearing is negative. I'm inclined to think things aren't going so well...

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-26 11:56:03 and read 7449 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 216):
I'm certainly wary that the media are looking for headlines, but the fact is that it's been 18 months since the original plans were announced, and no doubt talks started well before this announcement. Nothing has yet happened, and everything we're hearing is negative. I'm inclined to think things aren't going so well...

There is a difference - in my mind - between "negative" and "a farce."

We have a simple rule in my business - it is very bad luck talk about a contract until it is signed, and that may be the case here.

I find it almost impossibly difficult to think that Qantas set up this deal with China Eastern in the couple of weeks since it broke off talks with Malaysia. If it did, of course, then more power to the negotiating team, because I think it is - at least on paper - a considerable feather in Qantas' cap.

Red Q is another issue and a formidably difficult assignment, an attempt to solve the geographic negative that bedevils Qantas, involving not just cooperation with airlines but bilateral negotiations. It may fail, but it is surely worth attempting and I don't understand the impatience about it. Better to do it right than do it fast.

I know that many on a.net (and the media (especially Ben Sandilands) like to think we know all that is going on - and make judgements on that - but in truth we only know what we are told and sometimes the bits and pieces that are leaked. Few outsiders know the full story.

But let's say this is it, that this is all there is or ever will be. At the very least, the unionists should be cheering because it undercuts or diminishes one of their strongest criticisms of Qantas' Asian plans.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-26 12:17:28]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Zkpilot
Posted 2012-03-26 13:37:13 and read 7416 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 204):
I think the argument that QF is propping up JQ is now gone, as it wouldn't make sense with the increasing expansion

Not in Asia with its partners, but JQ Australia is still benefiting from clever accounting where in effect Qantas pays for everything back of house and to tidy up JQ's errors etc, JQ then runs a shell airline.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-26 17:07:38 and read 7315 times.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 218):
JQ Australia is still benefiting from clever accounting where in effect Qantas pays for everything back of house and to tidy up JQ's errors etc, JQ then runs a shell airline.

I'm sorry but this is as old as the "Emirates get free oil" line. When we see some proof, then we discuss this.

Quoting mariner (Reply 217):
There is a difference - in my mind - between "negative" and "a farce."
Quoting mariner (Reply 217):
We have a simple rule in my business - it is very bad luck talk about a contract until it is signed, and that may be the case here.

Farce was probably the wrong word to use, but outwardly at least this has been a bit of a PR failure for QF. They should have kept their mouth shut until the ink was drying (like JQ HK) but instead they announce to the world plans which (so far) they have failed to deliver on. And moving between carriers is just making them appear desperate. If anything ever happens it will probably fall below what they promised since in the end they will need to deliver something before the shareholders get restless. At that point the market will be dissappointed. However, if we didn't know that there were any plans for an Asian venture then they could present anything (20% stake in GA, eg) and put a wonderful spin on it about how this demonstrates their commitment to the Asian market. Instead they have lost their ability to score a PR victory since any spin will appear hollow.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-26 17:19:46 and read 7318 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 211):
it turns out that the Virgin they wanted him to date had little to offer in return, and simply wanted to access their vast fortune

Not to mention that this so-called virgin had simultaneous affairs with men from the UAE, NZ and USA  

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-26 17:30:04 and read 7307 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 219):
They should have kept their mouth shut until the ink was drying (like JQ HK) but instead they announce to the world plans which (so far) they have failed to deliver on.

Each to their own.

I thought Qantas laid out an overview of a strategy - one part (but not the only part) of which has just locked into place. Another part, Red Q, I think is a valid and important one, but enormously difficult. I still don't see how it is going to work, I don't know what Qantas is going to do and I don't really care.

If and when something happens then I guess Qantas will announce it and I'll evaluate it. If, for any of several possible and/or probable reasons, it proves too hard I won't be surprised, but there are other ways to address the critical issue.

As I understand it, Qantas is working on how to solve an almost intractable problem - geography - and that's enough for me. I don't need to know every detail of the future, all at once, all the time. I'm not so bored.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-26 17:32:15]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: NZ107
Posted 2012-03-26 20:52:10 and read 7154 times.

I don't see it posted anywhere else.. But it looks like VA have FINALLY codeshared with VS on SYD-HKG. I wonder if they'll continue that codeshare through to LHR or not..

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-26 23:58:42 and read 6981 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 217):
I find it almost impossibly difficult to think that Qantas set up this deal with China Eastern in the couple of weeks since it broke off talks with Malaysia.

Apologies for the confusion, but I'm thinking about these issues as two unrelated parts of the business. I don't see this HKG deal as being related to QF's failed attempts to set up this premium carrier, and obviously talks have been underway for a long time (wasn't JQ HKG rumoured early last year, late-2010?)

JQ's expansion hasn't been overly troublesome IMO, they've got some strong partners and a clear strategy.

But QF's premium carrier has been a farce of sorts, with what appears to be a string of failed attempts to get it off the ground.

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 222):
I don't see it posted anywhere else.. But it looks like VA have FINALLY codeshared with VS on SYD-HKG. I wonder if they'll continue that codeshare through to LHR or not..

This was mentioned late last year IIRC. I think the conclusion was that VA would not codeshare to LHR (focusing on their and EY's flight through AUH), but that this is just VA finding a way to offer something to HKG (which is reasonably important as a destination).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: TruemanQLD
Posted 2012-03-27 00:11:57 and read 6978 times.

Quoting koruman (Reply 207):

Once again, you fail to read the information properly. They will have 3 aircraft initially but move to 15 aircraft by2015. A smart move to test the waters, so to say. Qf may be an outsider but the whole point is to become an insider, something they need to do to survive. Also ending HKG to LHR is so far beyond relevance it amazes me you brought it up. They ended this flight to reduce capacity to LHR which they found was too high, however still have a high frequency of flights to HKG. Also JQ HKG would not be aimed at QF passengers but at the local market

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 210):

3 aircraft moving to 15 within 3 years is hardly all guns blazing. Also QF has experience having flown to HKG for many years and with the successful venture in SIN. Plus the partnership with MU will be even better

Quoting qf002 (Reply 216):

I think AJ made a mistake in announcing it before they had any firm plans. I have no doubt that airlines all around the world explore there options but people just aren't aware. In hindsight im sure he would regret announcing it

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 218):

YAWNNNNNN evidence? Let me guess....none? Surprise surprise

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-27 00:36:34 and read 6947 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 224):
3 aircraft moving to 15 within 3 years is hardly all guns blazing

I meant their approach to negotiations, it has been mentioned before that QF are 'difficult to deal with'

Quoting qf002 (Reply 223):
this is just VA finding a way to offer something to HKG (which is reasonably important as a destination).

I think it's a good sign that VA have noted that while SIN is a fantastic hub, it is too far west to be truly viable for East Asia (at least from the East Coast). Given the importance of HK, it is good to take advantage of a direct flight there, especially when it is practically given to you on a plate.


Before I get flamed, I know that people do connect to China through SIN. Indeed my mother (UA 1k, *G) goes to Shanghai and Hong Kong on business a couple of times a year and goes with SQ. But that's because she is *G, and there isn't a more viable * option from BNE (TG via BKK, but that's as long as it is broad). CX are usually cheaper and obviously much more convenient so she wouldn't do it otherwise.

Edit: As soon as I posted the above I saw that EVA is joining Star. Do they still fly to BNE, I honestly can't remember... If so that would be better than changing in SIN.

[Edited 2012-03-27 00:38:42]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-27 00:40:41 and read 6942 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 223):
But QF's premium carrier has been a farce of sorts, with what appears to be a string of failed attempts to get it off the ground.

I'm not sure how many constitutes "a string" and so I wonder how many failed attempts you think there are?

I cannot imagine anyone thought this would be easy or would was going to happen quickly and if the talks with Malaysia have caused its deferment for a couple of years, that may say much less about Qantas and a whole lot more about Malaysia's present financial circumstances.

I think that if it happens within three or four years it will be quite speedy and, as I said earlier, it may not happen at all in its originally envisioned form.

As a long-term strategy, however, I think the concept of an off-shore hub for a premium airline is impeccable, but even as I write that the difficulties present themselves, because it involves active cooperation with a foreign government - not just a foreign airline - and may involve issues of sovereignty.

mariner

[Edited 2012-03-27 00:42:06]

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-27 00:48:50 and read 6961 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 225):
I meant their approach to negotiations, it has been mentioned before that QF are 'difficult to deal with'

I don't know who has mentioned it before, or what their sources are, but I rather hope Qantas is "difficult to deal with."

I have little doubt that Qantas could get some kind of a deal quite quickly if it gave away the farm. And I can already hear the howls of outrage if it did.

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: AusA380
Posted 2012-03-27 02:17:23 and read 6853 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 225):
CX are usually cheaper and obviously much more convenient so she wouldn't do it otherwise.

I went from SYD to PEK last year for a conference flying J - excluding the mainland China Airlines (which were only marginally quicker and cheaper), SQ was the most cost effective, followed by Korean, CX was down the list a bit, and surprise surprise QF was the most expensive.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-27 05:07:21 and read 6627 times.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 224):
I think AJ made a mistake in announcing it before they had any firm plans. I have no doubt that airlines all around the world explore there options but people just aren't aware. In hindsight im sure he would regret announcing it

Agreed.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 225):
Before I get flamed, I know that people do connect to China through SIN.

I have a friend who flies to Japan via Singapore... It adds something like 25% to the total journey, but it's the best way to get there on * (aside from Asiana, but he's also an A380 fan and SQ can get him all the way to NRT on the A380)...

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 225):
Edit: As soon as I posted the above I saw that EVA is joining Star. Do they still fly to BNE, I honestly can't remember... If so that would be better than changing in SIN.

Apparently they are, twice weekly on Thursdays and Sundays.

Quoting mariner (Reply 226):
I'm not sure how many constitutes "a string" and so I wonder how many failed attempts you think there are?

I'm not just referring to the negotiations themselves, but this has been poorly handled from a PR standpoint. AJ comes out with this big plan, full of confidence. Then there's news that he's having trouble negotiating with Singapore, and now it's been reported that MH isn't interested. It leaves AJ's plans looking rather ordinary, and the negative press undermines his public position (at least IMO).

Quoting mariner (Reply 226):
As a long-term strategy, however, I think the concept of an off-shore hub for a premium airline is impeccable

I agree. Just look at the posts I made defending the plan 18 months ago. I realise that QF will be able to far more effectively service most of the Australia-Asia market by consolidating traffic from Australia onto smaller aircraft to a wider range of Asian cities. It's just been poorly handled.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Bluebird191
Posted 2012-03-27 13:29:23 and read 6429 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 229):
Apparently they are, twice weekly on Thursdays and Sundays.

Actually on Thursdays and Saturdays. A few months back they retimed their BNE-TPE leg from a morning to a night departure (probably for easier connections to elsewhere in Asia) so both flights are now red-eyes. An unfortunate consequence of retiming the BNE-TPE leg is that now is a 19 hour transit in TPE if wanting to go to either LHR or any of their North American destinations.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-27 14:08:35 and read 6388 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 229):
I'm not just referring to the negotiations themselves, but this has been poorly handled from a PR standpoint. AJ comes out with this big plan, full of confidence. Then there's news that he's having trouble negotiating with Singapore, and now it's been reported that MH isn't interested. It leaves AJ's plans looking rather ordinary, and the negative press undermines his public position (at least IMO).

I can only repeat myself. It was always, as I understood it, a five year plan and always fraught with difficulties. At the same time, if he hadn't announced a long-term plan the media would have been just as unforgiving.

Certainly, there have been problems with Singapore - most notably and predictably from Singapore Airlines - and I haven't read that Malaysia "isn't interested" - simply not now, in view of its own financial issues.

This article is the most balanced I have read - and isn't Australian:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ub-on-hold-for-up-three-years.html

"Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said plans to set up a full-service carrier in Asia have been put back by “a year or two or three” after the carrier failed to secure a deal to build a hub there.

“We are still in dialogue with both the Singaporeans and Malaysians but nothing is happening in the short term,” Joyce said in a Berlin interview. “It’s more of a long-term issue."


In the some of the Singaporean media, there seems to be a consensus, or at least a strong suggestion, that if SIA had SYD-LAX rights, things might be different, and surely there will have to be some give and take.

But as for being poorly handled from a media perspective, I see a pervasive "gotcha" attitude to Mr. Joyce on the part of much of the headline-obsessed Australian (airline) media. I don't share that attitude and it is always a relief to read the more balanced opinions, such as those of Macquarie bank (WSJ), who have suggested that Qantas may have to go-it-alone which will likely be more capital intensive than originally hoped.

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-03-27 16:17:12 and read 6295 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 227):
I don't know who has mentioned it before, or what their sources are, but I rather hope Qantas is "difficult to deal with."

It's bandied around this board by the usual QF haters without offering a shred of evidence to back it up. Being difficult to deal with is a good thing for a Company in QF's position. It means they're looking after their shareholders while seeking a commercial return for doing things. If that requires them to be hardarses, and Leigh Clifford is definitely that, then so be it.

Quoting mariner (Reply 231):
I can only repeat myself. It was always, as I understood it, a five year plan and always fraught with difficulties. At the same time, if he hadn't announced a long-term plan the media would have been just as unforgiving.

I think it's interesting what has happened since the announcement of "Red Q". We've seen not only the final stages of the rationalisation of the QF International Network, but we've also seen the re-organisaton of Jetstar Vietnam, the launch of Jetstar Japan and the announcement of Jetstar Hong Kong. Along with that we've seen a concentration of services in SIN and an expanstion of JQ Asia. So it's not as if QF isn't executing a strategy here, it's just that Red Q provided an easy story to tell which the media could get all excited, and distracted, by while QF continued the steady rollout of it's LCC in Asia. I think the fact that Red Q hasn't yet come off as irrelevant because if the International Network can't make profits out of its new configuration, then with or without Red Q there isn't a future for it.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: eta unknown
Posted 2012-03-27 16:17:24 and read 6308 times.

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 230):
Actually on Thursdays and Saturdays. A few months back they retimed their BNE-TPE leg from a morning to a night departure (probably for easier connections to elsewhere in Asia) so both flights are now red-eyes. An unfortunate consequence of retiming the BNE-TPE leg is that now is a 19 hour transit in TPE if wanting to go to either LHR or any of their North American destinations.

I believe this is a last ditch attempt to save the BNE-TPE route... probably same crew operates the aircraft back to TPE that night with minimum crew rest at BNE. Parking at BNE is free so the cost is minimal. Brisbane Airport is aware the route might soon be pulled, but it does manage to keep surviving. And the local BNE office seems to actually be making an effort (at long last) to sell tickets to destinations other than TPE/HKG, so perhaps the heat has been turned up.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: QantasAirways
Posted 2012-03-27 16:53:54 and read 6256 times.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 233):

Thanks, that's interesting info. Does anyone know how CI is doing on the same route, considering they also re-timed their flights to be red-eye and added a BNE-AKL tag on top? Last time I flew this route with CI, many of the passengers on board were transitting in TPE to other destinations (Vietnam, HK, Japan, Amsterdam).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-03-27 16:59:05 and read 6254 times.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 233):
I believe this is a last ditch attempt to save the BNE-TPE route

How many days a week do China Airways fly?

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 232):
Being difficult to deal with is a good thing for a Company in QF's position. It means they're looking after their shareholders while seeking a commercial return for doing things

There's standing your ground in a negotiation, and then there's refusing to concede anything and basically dictating the outcome. Obviously none of us know what happens behind closed doors, but that seems to be a vibe. And while I am definitely not a QF hater (and will fly on them above anyone else when possible) if that was their corporate approach then I wouldn't be too surprised.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-03-27 18:12:21 and read 6167 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 235):
There's standing your ground in a negotiation, and then there's refusing to concede anything and basically dictating the outcome.

I'm sure several of the union leaders consider Mr. Joyce "difficult (impossible?) to deal with."

But - I believe - they seriously underestimated him and I doubt they'll push him to the wall again.

Within my experience of negotiations, at a fairly high level (not Qantas high) the loudest, most effective word in my vocabulary has always been "no" - even (or especially) with the Japanese.

mariner

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-27 19:25:09 and read 6087 times.

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 230):
Actually on Thursdays and Saturdays.

Oops, you are quite correct.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 235):
How many days a week do China Airways fly?

3.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2012-03-27 23:16:46 and read 5948 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 235):
There's standing your ground in a negotiation, and then there's refusing to concede anything and basically dictating the outcome. Obviously none of us know what happens behind closed doors, but that seems to be a vibe. And while I am definitely not a QF hater (and will fly on them above anyone else when possible) if that was their corporate approach then I wouldn't be too surprised.

There sits the issue. We do not know what actually happened and how these dealings were handled. Who were the ones not budging? It may well have een the unions for all we actually know.

Quoting QantasAirways (Reply 234):
Thanks, that's interesting info. Does anyone know how CI is doing on the same route, considering they also re-timed their flights to be red-eye and added a BNE-AKL tag on top? Last time I flew this route with CI, many of the passengers on board were transitting in TPE to other destinations (Vietnam, HK, Japan, Amsterdam).

I'm wondering if they picked up some pax from BI (Royal Brunei) once they axed BNE.

The route certainly has had its challenges over time but lets hope they can stay on.

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: Boof
Posted 2012-03-28 00:04:34 and read 5906 times.

For those interested the US website flightaware has expanded to Australia. This incorporates the Mobile apps and all the flight info to and from Australia.

Most airliners.net members would be familiar with flightaware's products through the various posts etc tracking flights. This is flightaware's first foray outside the US. I've done some testing of it throughout the day on the website and the iPad app and it works really well.

You can check it out at www.flightaware.com

Press release: http://flightaware.com/news/article/...racking-Services-for-Australia/161

There is a bit of a review on www.AusBT.com.au about the launch as well.

**please note: I'm not associated with flightaware in any capacity, I'm just very excited this has come to Australia!!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-03-28 00:55:34 and read 5843 times.

Quoting Boof (Reply 239):
I'm just very excited this has come to Australia!!

So am I! I just saw the email that they've sent out to all their members promoting this, and it looks like it'll be as fully featured as the international versions, which is excellent. The closest to this that I've been aware of in the past around here is the SYD tracking webpage (primarily designed to allow residents to complain about noise levels), but there is a 1 hour delay on the data and it isn't particularly comprehensive...

So it's good to see that we can access this with local data now!!

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: ADDICT4QF
Posted 2012-03-28 02:57:29 and read 5714 times.

QF B747-400ER OEJ re-entered service today with A380 product to DFW [reconfigured aircraft #4].

QF B747-400ER OEE positioned to Avalon today to be reconfigured with A380 product [aircraft #5]. Expected completion date is early May.

QF B747-400 OJU is scheduled to follow after that (the first of the non-ERs to get reconfigured).

Topic: RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 59
Username: wilco737
Posted 2012-03-28 05:49:15 and read 5558 times.

Please continue with part #60:

Australian Aviation Thread # 60 (by QF175 Mar 28 2012 in Civil Aviation)


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