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Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-04-21 04:52:58 and read 17586 times.

Hello all,

Should US and AA merge in some form or fashion, how would their hubs be different? Or would they? Whenever you have a merger of this magnitude, inevitably there will be some network casualties. There will also gains from some of the hubs no doubt. The hubs are below:

DFW
ORD
MIA
LAX
JFK
PHL
CLT
PHX

What do each look like after a merger should it happen?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-21 05:15:36 and read 17581 times.

I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK. The current US team is very fond of fortress hubs - if they aren't clear #1, they don't want to compete. ORD will have to stick around simply because there is no other viable option in the midwest.

In the end, I'd expect:

PHL
PHX
CLT
MIA
DFW
ORD

Adding in AS to cover the Northwest with PDX/SEA/ANC or even HA covering HNL wouldn't be a bad idea either...

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: avi8
Posted 2012-04-21 05:30:13 and read 17509 times.

I think JFK would stick around because of their European connections. If they remove JFK, where would those flights go? The O/D that goes from PHL to Europe is nothing compared to JFK. Therefore yields are higher at JFK. PHL would be more connecing traffic than anything resulting in very minimum, if any, profits.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-04-21 05:36:36 and read 17464 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK. The current US team is very fond of fortress hubs - if they aren't clear #1, they don't want to compete. ORD will have to stick around simply because there is no other viable option in the midwest.

In the end, I'd expect:

PHL
PHX
CLT
MIA
DFW
ORD

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-21 05:39:56 and read 17447 times.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 2):
I think JFK would stick around because of their European connections. If they remove JFK, where would those flights go? The O/D that goes from PHL to Europe is nothing compared to JFK. Therefore yields are higher at JFK. PHL would be more connecing traffic than anything resulting in very minimum, if any, profits.

US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.

I imagine JFK like PIT or BOS - some leftover legacy routes to cater to O&D. But connections would be routed through PHL, and a lot of flights would be cut.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: seatback
Posted 2012-04-21 05:47:01 and read 17392 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.

Completely agree. JFK isn't going anywhere.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2012-04-21 06:13:52 and read 17278 times.

Ignoring aeroblogger's nonsense.

Anyone with common sense knows all the AA hubs will stay.
DFW - No change
JFK - Will gain at PHL's expense
LAX - Won't gain many routes as T4 is limited in space. Hopefully Dougie will continue to expand asia.
MIA - Will gain some Caribbean routes at CLT's expense.
ORD - Very little change initially.


CLT - Remains as a southeast hub to challenge DL, but will lose Caribbean and possibly GIG.
PHL - Mostly for connecting domestic northeast traffic. Will retain O&D transatlantic traffic.
PHX - Draws down some. Will remain for intra-west routes west of DFW and East of LAX.

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?

The problem is that the expanded presence is at DCA and not IAD. AA would only fly to its hubs from IAD. That however may be enough to tempt IB to restart MAD-IAD again.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: plateman
Posted 2012-04-21 06:48:10 and read 17089 times.

According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: brandonfsu05
Posted 2012-04-21 06:55:16 and read 17054 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
CLT - Remains as a southeast hub to challenge DL, but will lose Caribbean and possibly GIG

lol US Airways runs twice as many total flights out of CLT than MIA. US Airways Caribbean flights are serving different markets at different frequencies than Miami. Miami is drawing a lot on O&D with connecting traffic coming from major cities. CLT draws traffic from major areas all across the United States and Canada as well as more regional markets. It's not like US Airways is serving PAP from CLT or something. Aside from Saturday only services, US Airways serves the Caribbean trunk routes out of CLT. I think CLT and MIA are complementary in that respect.

It's very possible that GIG will leave. However, if US/AA continued to grow CLT hub its very possible that CLT could get some additional South American service. I think overtime Brazil traffic will become less Miami/New York centric. Maybe later down the road you could see Brazil service again at CLT. CLT would pretty much be in the same situation it is in with PHL right now. CLT doesn't get any European routes first, PHL does. However, once PHL is established it brings the risk down in running a seasonal service/new route from CLT (MAD, DUB, CDG, 2nd FRA).

But I still don't think this merger is going to happen.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-04-21 07:08:15 and read 16969 times.

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?

No more so than US's former hub at LGA encouraged them to expand from JFK or EWR. DCA is a nice, lucrative niche for the combined carrier. The best they could hope for is further liberalization of the perimeter rules to allow for additional trans-Cons. If there were full liberalization I could see the combined AA pulling up stakes at IAD altogether, however I think what will happen will not be full liberalization but rather piece meal, as has been done already, based solely on the strength of various Congressional delegations.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
JFK - Will gain at PHL's expense

I can see some A330s going to JFK, but without additional slots any hope of building up JFK to challenge DL is really unrealistic.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
MIA - Will gain some Caribbean routes at CLT's expense.

I think CLT will continue as a Caribbean connecting point, when AA had their RDU hub they also had a nice sized Caribbean network from their to compliment what they had at MIA and SJU. CLT is a better connecting point for the Caribbean, less crowded, and much more diverse network of domestic connections opportunities.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
ORD - Very little change initially.

I think with ORD they are either going to fight or flight, either refocus on rebuilding their competitive position or cut back to a focus city.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-21 07:15:05 and read 16932 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
Ignoring aeroblogger's nonsense.

Why? What's nonsense about it.

AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: mdtrunner
Posted 2012-04-21 07:26:46 and read 16862 times.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Of course.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-21 07:29:42 and read 16860 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Should US and AA merge in some form or fashion, how would their hubs be different? Or would they?

From an airport/terminal/facility standpoint, this would actually be a rather seamless and effortless combination/integration, with just a few notable exceptions. In each of the hub stations, combining operations would be very straightforward, as one airline is substantially larger than the other in each one. And in most of the spoke stations - including larger combined stations like BOS, EWR, RDU, MCO, AUS, SFO, SEA, and even DEN - where both carriers now operate, it should be fairly easy to combine operations into one facility footprint without much trouble. In some cases, like EWR, the two airlines already actually operate from the same terminal, basically next to each other, and in others, like BOS, they operate from terminals adjacent to each other (in BOS I suspect AA would move to the current USAirways side of B).

There are only a few places where I could see a combined carrier having challenges. The most obvious ones that leap to mind are LAX and LGA. Both airlines are already relatively large in both airports, and both already have relative large terminal footprints that are completely separate from each other. In both cases, I guess they could go on operating two separate operations, but that is so vastly suboptimal.

At LGA, I don't know what a viable solution would look like - too bad USAirways gave most of their terminal to Delta, as that would have been a perfect location for the combined operation. At LAX, the challenge is also big: I don't know how they would go about combining that. I could see everything from the minimal/bad (continuous T1-T4 busing), to the interim/half-measure (shift T1 ops to closer-to-T4/TBIT T3), to the radical change (work out a grand bargain and combine ops in T1/T2) - I have no idea how LAX would ultimately shake out.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Whenever you have a merger of this magnitude, inevitably there will be some network casualties.

I think there would be some shifting among the hubs to optimize traffic flows. For example, some of traffic that USAirways presently flows over PHL to reach the west coast could more quickly and efficiently be moved over ORD, so I see some added capacity - with the right aircraft - in some northeast-Chicago markets. There could also be some shifts with some of the connections USAirways now routes out of the Pacific Northwest through PHX which could be far more directly served over ORD/DFW, etc. Same with PHX and LAX: PHX is a better connection point (in terms of geography and facilities) for domestic connections, particularly coming out of California, while LAX is obviously a better connection point for international and longhaul traffic (since PHX doesn't really have much of either).

Finally, I could also see some shifting of several PHL/CLT-Europe flights, with JFK benefiting. AA today uses many peak-hour slots at JFK for domestic flights, many on RJs, to feed Europe flights. With a huge hub down I-95 in PHL, many of those domestic connections, particularly to smaller U.S. markets, could be shifted there, freeing up JFK slots to be used for international flights and/or expanded connections to larger domestic stations. Specifically, I could see the combined company shifting VCE, TLV and GLA from PHL up to JFK, and I could see CLT-DUB also potentially moving up to JFK. I think it's also logical to expect a reduced schedule to Germany with the loss of Lufthansa, which I think would come in the form of PHL-FRA going to down to 1 daily (with the second frequency, perhaps reduced to a 752, possibly also shifted to JFK) and PHL-MUC eliminated entirely.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
There will also gains from some of the hubs no doubt.

Yep - particularly domestically. Over time, there would be a lot of gap-filling and dot-connecting, I suspect. There are various domestic routes that would instantly make much more sense given combined scale, and new markets, that each individual network would bring to the combined airline. As a few examples, I could see plenty of new markets easily working - such as ORD-PVD, ORD-PDX, DFW-BUF, PHL-AUS, LAX-PIT, BOS-STL, RDU-BOS, and on and on. Plus, I could actually see a combined airline getting back into some transcon markets like BOS-SFO - a market AA should be able to make work - and even growing the stable of DCA transcons (depending on how difficult it would be to shift DCA-PHX slots). If AA could move some of the PHX slots to other airports, I could see AA going 2x daily DCA-LAX, and possibly even making a go of DCA-SFO. A DCA network including LAX, SAN, SFO, LAS and PHX would be impressive.

Plus, there would of course be hub-to-hub additions - more flights DFW-CLT and DFW-PHL, more frequency and all-mainline ORD-DCA, definitely a shift to all-mainline ORD-PHL and MIA-CLT, and on and on. Internationally, I think it is logical to expect that CLT-LGW would quickly be shifted to CLT-LHR, and that PHL-LHR might get a second frequency, making a total of 4 AA/BA on the route, and that at least one of AA's PHL-LHR flights gets upgraded to a 777.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I wouldn't.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

In this case, I actually do think all of a combined airline's hubs would be 'safe' - at least in the short- to medium-term, but nonetheless pronouncements from airline CEOs about how all the hubs are safe are rather meaningless. Literally every airline merger since 2000 has seen definitive guarantees like that and in every case they have ultimately been meaningless - airlines do whatever makes economic sense, whether that means growing or shrinking hubs, or closing them altogether.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 8):
lol US Airways runs twice as many total flights out of CLT than MIA. US Airways Caribbean flights are serving different markets at different frequencies than Miami. Miami is drawing a lot on O&D with connecting traffic coming from major cities. CLT draws traffic from major areas all across the United States and Canada as well as more regional markets. It's not like US Airways is serving PAP from CLT or something. Aside from Saturday only services, US Airways serves the Caribbean trunk routes out of CLT. I think CLT and MIA are complementary in that respect.

I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 8):
However, if US/AA continued to grow CLT hub its very possible that CLT could get some additional South American service.

I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.

When it comes to CLT-GIG specifically, what I want to know is the status of the USAirways-Delta transaction regarding the GIG-for-GRU route authority swap. If that is still in force, and is not precluded by some contractual language anticipating a merger such as this, then I think the more interesting question is what will AA do with another GRU opportunity? GIG is now effectively open, GRU is not. If AA was able to get its hands on seven more frequencies to GRU, I could see them potentially going for ORD-GRU.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
I can see some A330s going to JFK, but without additional slots any hope of building up JFK to challenge DL is really unrealistic.

Agreed. I think some of the A330s could make sense at JFK for markets like FCO, BCN, etc. But I don't think slots would be an issue at all - an impediment - to AA growing their JFK-Europe schedule a bit. Again - AA warehouses many of their peak-hour JFK slots on domestic connecting flights that could now easily be served over PHL, freeing up those slots to be used for international flying. And as for parity with DL out of JFK/NYC - this merger wouldn't bring it, nor would it need to. AA would now have a huge, far-less-competitive, connecting hub just down the road from NYC that could handle most of the connections, freeing AA's JFK (and LGA) operation to be more tailored and focused on O&D. AA has tons of JFK slots that could be very smartly deployed for this purpose, obviously with an emphasis on longhaul and transcon, and the combined AA also has tons of LGA slots that could be very smartly deployed for this same purpose on domestic flights. Unlike in the last few years, AA actually no longer needs a New York hub - the purpose it would have served is largely filled by PHL. What AA is now free to do in New York is return to its natural role as a strong O&D presence.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
I think with ORD they are either going to fight or flight, either refocus on rebuilding their competitive position or cut back to a focus city.

I don't expect ORD to go anywhere. This merger would give AA the opportunity - finally - to be freed of contractual restrictions that limited the ability to effectively serve the ORD market. Namely, I see plenty of A319s and 70-90-seat capacity flowing into ORD to 'rightsize' the hub, plus actually some additions in some markets where AA severely cut back (or ended altogether) service since 9/11 but where the 'new AA' would be a big player (markets like BUF, ALB, BDL, PVD, etc.). Plus, again, lots more capacity on ORD-DCA and ORD-PHL.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition.

Actually, AA is already - and still would be - #3 in New York metro, which is perfectly acceptable. Again - United and Delta need to be huge in New York because they need it as a hub. Both have other upper midwest alternatives (ORD, DTW, CLE), and United has IAD, but in both cases they are now using one or multiple New York airports as a prime connecting point in and out of the northeast, and across the Atlantic. AA no longer needs that - they've got it at PHL (and frankly, as operationally challenging as PHL is, it's certainly no worse than EWR/LGA/JFK, and I think it could be argued that in some ways it's actually better). So AA would now happily be able to focus their JFK/LGA schedules more towards O&D, and less towards connections, and let Delta and United duke it out for dominance.

[Edited 2012-04-21 07:51:34]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2012-04-21 07:47:28 and read 16719 times.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Famous last words repeated in every airline merger.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-04-21 08:02:59 and read 16627 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.
Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
At LGA, I don't know what a viable solution would look like - too bad USAirways gave most of their terminal to Delta, as that would have been a perfect location for the combined operation.

Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

MIA has two things going against it, high emplanement costs per passenger (highest in the Country?) and notorious Customs and Immigration processing. For leisure destinations like the Caribbean I definetly see CLT continuing it's prominent role. CLT's costs per passenger are significantly lower than MIA thus allowing to compete on price with the likes of B6, NK and eventually WN. Also the Customs and Immigration situation is a more "tranquil" experience than MIA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.

I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-21 08:29:24 and read 16427 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Seeing as it's New York, I am not holding my breath. Certainly - yes, if that were to occur, it would be great for all involved (most of all the passengers), but ten years is a loooooooong time in New York.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
MIA has two things going against it, high emplanement costs per passenger (highest in the Country?) and notorious Customs and Immigration processing. For leisure destinations like the Caribbean I definetly see CLT continuing it's prominent role. CLT's costs per passenger are significantly lower than MIA thus allowing to compete on price with the likes of B6, NK and eventually WN. Also the Customs and Immigration situation is a more "tranquil" experience than MIA.

I agree that CLT won't lose all or even most of its Caribbean service (much of which consists of weekend flying, anyway). There is a balance - no question. CLT is much lower-cost - no question. But, there is a countervailing argument that works to MIA's favor: MIA has dramatically more O&D, and, somewhat as a result, it also has substantially higher yields. So, what I think may occur - as you suggest - MIA is focused on O&D and higher-yielding connections, while CLT remains a lower-cost, but lower-yielding, connecting point primarily tailored to leisure travelers going to the islands. This should sound familiar - this is essentially the exact arrangement AA had with SJU and MIA, respectively, up until about five years ago.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.

I just don't see CLT staying a gateway to South America when there are other hubs with far more O&D and when MIA can replicate probably 3/4 or more of the connections CLT handles to/from GIG today - the vast majority of which are almost certainly coming from a short list of probably 15-20 big markets, all of which are likely served by AA over MIA.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-21 08:32:40 and read 16371 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
(in BOS I suspect AA would move to the current USAirways side of B).

In BOS, the plan was to build a connector between the 2 parts last time I checked...

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):

Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Indeed. But there is more that goes into route planning decisions than how nice the terminal is.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

The announcement generally comes after all parties have agreed and all approvals have been granted.

And I don't forsee a complete shutdown of any hub - just some serious scaling back. Even the cities that get dehubbed will have a significant amount of service from the combined carrier.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: DeltAirlines
Posted 2012-04-21 08:44:16 and read 16230 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

Agree completely. Your major markets to the Caribbean (SJU, STT, AUA, MBJ, CUN) will all stay in some way, shape or form. The cities that would most likely lose are the once-a-week flights, which US offers quite a few of out of CLT - it might make sense to run a couple of those for a few months out of the year, but I don't see them all sticking around. Most of the major markets can be run over Miami as it stands.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.
Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.

I just can't see Charlotte keeping South America service out of this. As it stands, US has a lot of connections to Orlando on that flight to help make it work - you can just as easily route those passengers over Miami in a combined carrier and save yourself from backhauling 1100 miles each way. If US gets a GRU authority, I agree with the post upthread saying you'd likely see it placed on ORD first.

As for other network, I'd bet heavily that the Republic E-170/175s would be in ORD very quickly, and you'd see a lot of those US stations in the Northeast having a second carrier to ORD now. AA doesn't serve MHT, PWM, BTV, PVD, etc., and has a token presence to ORD from cities such as BDL. All these cities are well represented by US Airways, and United has pulled back pretty significantly in many of these cities out of ORD. It'd be a very logical fit to quickly strengthen ORD's place in the network, as they will now have the right planes for it and the well-established stations out East.

LAX, I don't expect much to change. US isn't that big of a player there - something like 18 flights a day (5x PHL, 5x CLT, 8x PHX). I'm not sure how they'll fit them into Terminal 4 but I expect a pretty as-is situation there.

PHX will likely see some cuts, but not a ton - it's a convenient way to get into several smaller west coast communities that would be too long of a hop from DFW, and too hard to get into congested LAX. Cuts you'd see might be some pruning of east coast flying that could be done over DFW (and ORD).

DFW would stay mostly as-is. I wouldn't be shocked to see some cities get dropped (FAT is probably a better choice to put through PHX than DFW) but nothing drastic.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: IADLHR
Posted 2012-04-21 08:49:21 and read 16182 times.

If US leaves Star Alliance and joins Onewrold, how long will it take for US to extricate itself from Star and join Oneworld?

What is the procedure for this? Will US have to pay Star some fee?

For other reasons, I just dont see this US/AA merger happening. It is just my gut feeling.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-04-21 08:52:22 and read 16135 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 15):
but ten years is a loooooooong time in New York.

Probably closer to five.

Quoting IADLHR (Reply 18):
If US leaves Star Alliance and joins Onewrold, how long will it take for US to extricate itself from Star and join Oneworld?

It took CO about a year to leave Skyteam, and it didn't cost them anything.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Talaier
Posted 2012-04-21 09:01:56 and read 16053 times.

I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now. JFK is a yield cash cow and I don't think that is going to change. JFK is indeed zero practical as a hub airport but there's only two ways of getting to NYC from the other side of the Atlantic and you just have to put up with it.

PHX might have a shot, but DFW is much more powerful and essentially does the same job. I wouldn't be on the operating being anything bigger than LAX (in terms of hubbing) in 2-3 years.

CLT is the only one I see surviving - and that's just because there's space to grow.

Since US Airways is going to get absorbed into the OW sphere, I'm not expecting any major changes to OW's strategy - only add ons. Overall the number of seats being offered on Europe-NA should come down.

It will be interesting where those 330s will end up though. I'm betting AA will swiftly move their 757s from European routes as soon as they have the chance and put 330s on them.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-04-21 09:05:13 and read 16003 times.

I assume the combined airline would create a short term and long term plan for their hub / network structure.

Short term they will work on integration of ops at each hub and probably not make any significant changes. Longer term, they will look at how each hub performs and determine which stays and which goes. I do not believe they have will have a firm answer at the time of merger, but will wait to see how the combined network performs before making any changes.

With this said, the slot limitations of JFK during peak times severely hampers AA's ability to develop a full fledged hub at JFK. Slots may be available during other times of the day, but they are available for a reason - they are not optimal times.

Similarly, LAX's terminal constraints also limit LAX's ability to develop into a full fledged hub. Furthermore, it is an airport fragmented by 4 carriers.

It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

But it brings in much more domestic and international connecting traffic than JFK.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-21 09:22:57 and read 15799 times.

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now.

That is because they are left out of the JVs across the pond, and therefore have to charge lower rates than the cartels.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I assume the combined airline would create a short term and long term plan for their hub / network structure.

Short term they will work on integration of ops at each hub and probably not make any significant changes. Longer term, they will look at how each hub performs and determine which stays and which goes. I do not believe they have will have a firm answer at the time of merger, but will wait to see how the combined network performs before making any changes.

With this said, the slot limitations of JFK during peak times severely hampers AA's ability to develop a full fledged hub at JFK. Slots may be available during other times of the day, but they are available for a reason - they are not optimal times.

Similarly, LAX's terminal constraints also limit LAX's ability to develop into a full fledged hub. Furthermore, it is an airport fragmented by 4 carriers.

It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

I pretty much agree completely. LAX and JFK are just not markets which US/AA can "win" - their resources would be better utilized elsewhere. I expect ORD to stick around simply because there isn't another choice in the midwest, but it will probably be scaled down. PHX will probably grow, simply because that west coast capacity from LAX has to be moved somewhere...

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Squid
Posted 2012-04-21 09:37:30 and read 15649 times.

This is fun, so I will throw in my two cents.

Unlike the Delta/NWA merger, and the United/Continental merger, I don't think there will be as much shifting of the combined AA/US merger as far as the network goes. This is what I see happening over the first 24 months.

(1) JFK will still play a very important role because of British Airways and other One World partners. Because of PHL, JFK will focus more on O&D. I can see JFK staying pretty much the way it is right now, however I can see AA investing heavily in their trans-cons to increase their service in-flight as well as frequencies in order to recapture market share lost to Delta and United. The new management team may even keep 767's on the route rather than shift to 737's and A321's like AA is currently planning sense many of their high paying customers prefer wide-body's over small narrow bodies. AA will use mostly 777's and 787's out of JFK and may even launch flights to Asia with the new 787's as they come on-line.

(2) PHL - I can see a major investment over time into PHL with remodeling in order to make PHL competitive with EWR and Delta at JFK. I think AA will turn PHL into their major European gateway, launching many additional routes out of PHL, whereas JFK will focus on London. JFK will fly more 777's Trans-Atlantic, but PHL will get more 767's, 757's and the A330's. I don't believe they will fly to Asia out of PHL, or even much South America service leaving that to JFK and MIA.

(3) ORD will undergo a major expansion which will be supported by the additional cities that AA will gain from the US merger around the North East and South East. The new management team will double down on ORD and bring a fight to United. I also think that ORD may even get some additional Europe flying and possibly Asia flying when the 787's come on-line.

(4) MIA will continue to do what it is doing, which is primarily a Caribbean and Central/South American gateway. Because of CLT, MIA may have many banks re-timed to focus more on these connections and shift domestic connections through CLT.

(5) CLT will get a haircut similar to what Delta did to MSP. They may hang onto a London and Paris flight, but most passengers will be routed through PHL and JFK to Europe. Also many cities that are served with main-line flights will go to 70 seat regional AC. CLT will pay an important role, but mostly as a domestic connecting hub and provide feed into the AA network from the Southeast where AA really doesn't have much presence right now.

(6) DFW will GROW!!! And the new management team will focus on Mexico and Central America launching many new routes. The DFW metro-plex economy is on fire and the new management team is going to reassert themselves and push out Spirit.

(7) LAX will probably grow some. It's an important market, and I think that the US management team sees the bigger picture when it comes to AA's current Asia presence. because AA, unlike Delta and United, does not have a large network or an Asia hub in NRT or HKG, they will re-trench in LA in order to launch many new non-stop Trans-Pacific and South-Pacific flights with 787's to major markets.

(8) PHX will be the major looser in this merger. I think AA will keep a small hub/focus city there utilizing regional jets to small markets in the southwest that will then feed into main-line AA flights into PHX and then connect into other AA hubs. I think they will keep a few mainline non-hub flights to places like SFO, LAS, SEA and DIA, but for the most part, the mainline flights will be into LAX, DFW, PHL, JFK, and ORD. I do not believe PHX will get any international service other than to maybe a few Mexico destinations because O&D is vital. If AA makes a serious play for Asia, it will be through LAX, ORD, and JFK.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-21 10:04:48 and read 15364 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 16):
In BOS, the plan was to build a connector between the 2 parts last time I checked...

With the new American in oneworld, there is really no need to connect the two sides of B, nor for United to build out the AA side of B. I believe that with some creative shifting around the combined AA operations in BOS could all fit into the USAirways terminal. Given that, Massport's ongoing airline-terminal merry-go-round problems have just been solved: A is Delta, B-West is American, B-East is United, and C is JetBlue. Done and done.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
I just can't see Charlotte keeping South America service out of this. As it stands, US has a lot of connections to Orlando on that flight to help make it work - you can just as easily route those passengers over Miami in a combined carrier and save yourself from backhauling 1100 miles each way.

  

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
As for other network, I'd bet heavily that the Republic E-170/175s would be in ORD very quickly, and you'd see a lot of those US stations in the Northeast having a second carrier to ORD now. AA doesn't serve MHT, PWM, BTV, PVD, etc., and has a token presence to ORD from cities such as BDL. All these cities are well represented by US Airways, and United has pulled back pretty significantly in many of these cities out of ORD. It'd be a very logical fit to quickly strengthen ORD's place in the network, as they will now have the right planes for it and the well-established stations out East.

Exactly.

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now.

I don't see why not. PHL is a very large population center, with a lot of O&D and business demand, and in a perfectly fine location to serve as a viable northeast hub. Is PHL as big a market as New York? No. But it's also not nearly as competitive, as USAirways today dominates the PHL market. Plus, there is only one airport in New York that can really ever serve as a true omnidirectional, domestic-and-international, multi-bank hub, and that's EWR. With that obviously taken, PHL is actually probably the next best bet for a northeast hub - better than any "split hub" concept between JFK/LGA, and probably just as good as IAD could ever be (IAD is less congested, but also serves a smaller/split market).

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
JFK is a yield cash cow and I don't think that is going to change. JFK is indeed zero practical as a hub airport but there's only two ways of getting to NYC from the other side of the Atlantic and you just have to put up with it.

Agreed - AA's operations in New York in general (and at JFK) generate some great yields and revenue, and that need not change. JFK and PHL can coexist together - it need not be one or the other.

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
It will be interesting where those 330s will end up though. I'm betting AA will swiftly move their 757s from European routes as soon as they have the chance and put 330s on them.

I could envision a reshuffling where some of those A330s make their way onto denser Europe routes (JFK-FCO, MIA-BCN) and some of the South America flights (MIA-SCL, MIA-CNF, etc.).

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

Well what you've just described - "O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes" - is basically what AA has now at both LAX and JFK. And I agree that is perfectly fine. Continue to optimize both LAX and JFK primarily for O&D and international/longhaul and use alternative hubs to handle more of the connections.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

Agreed.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

Isn't USAirways already at that "tipping point" in PHX? It doesn't appear to have slowed Southwest down. I think with the right CASM PHX makes sense, but I doubt the mere fact of AA (which is today basically a bit player in PHX) and USAirways merging is going to lead Southwest to reduce operations in PHX. I can understand a prediction for future growth to be more focused on LAS and DEN, but I don't think Southwest is going anywhere in PHX.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Again - I think that ORD will likely remain basically exactly the same size it is today - and actually grow somewhat - in terms of frequencies. Where ORD will change will be in terms of capacity. AA has for years been hamstrung by a pilot contract that prevented it from economically operating the right aircraft to compete in the 3-way Chicago battle. Now, with access to the trove of large RJs that USAirways operates, AA finally would have an opportunity to right-size ORD capacity, and also grow into some new markets where the 'new American' has more critical mass than AA has today.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
I can see AA investing heavily in their trans-cons to increase their service in-flight as well as frequencies in order to recapture market share lost to Delta and United.

I don't disagree, except that AA hasn't really lose market share to Delta and United. AA (and Delta and United) have all lost market share to JetBlue and Virgin America.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
PHL - I can see a major investment over time into PHL with remodeling in order to make PHL competitive with EWR and Delta at JFK.

Agree. PHL is a viable hub, and AA has traditionally (may change, but I doubt it) prided itself on having fairly solid, high-quality facilities at its main hubs. PHL needs work - A-West is nice, but the rest of the terminal could use some refurbishment and optimization.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
I don't believe they will fly to Asia out of PHL

It may seem far-fetched, but down the line, I honestly don't think a JAL 787 PHL-NRT would be out of the picture. With BOS hours away from getting a NRT flight, PHL has got to now be one of the largest U.S. metro areas and air markets without a nonstop flight to Asia. USAirways failed multiple times, but with a oneworld hub at both ends, a joint AA/JL NRT flight could work.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: United777ORD
Posted 2012-04-21 10:12:09 and read 15764 times.

AA+US Hubs:
DFW- Largest hub with 750+ daily flights
CLT- 2nd largest hub with 475 flights
ORD- 3rd largest hub with 450 flights
PHL- 4th largest hub with 425 flights
MIA- 5th largest hub with 350 flights
PHX- 6th largest hub with 300 flights
LAX- 7th largest hub with 200 flights
JFK- 8th largest hub with 150 flights

AA+US Focus Cities
LGA
DCA
BOS
LAS

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAV88
Posted 2012-04-21 11:36:23 and read 14924 times.

I wonder if there is a chance that a merged US and AA will lead to more European flying out of MIA. I am sure there are some holes to file in the MIA-Europe market. Maybe MAN, DUB, ATH, BRU for example?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 11:51:27 and read 15150 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.

AA is already larger than B6 in NYC based on FEB11-JAN12. So combining them will only build that lead stronger. To say that AA/US will leave it's number three position in NYC and number two (likely soon number one; it is very close behind UA) at LAX is ridiculous.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-21 11:57:33 and read 15012 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
AA is already larger than B6 in NYC based on FEB11-JAN12. So combining them will only build that lead stronger. To say that AA/US will leave it's number three position in NYC and number two (likely soon number one; it is very close behind UA) at LAX is ridiculous.

  

A combined 'new AA' would be a solid #3 in the New York market, which is perfectly fine, and just where it would need to be, since it would no longer have the need for any New York airport - JFK or LGA - to serve as a major hub. Absent that need, their focus can shift from a mix of connections and O&D to a far heavier tilt towards O&D and only targeted connections, leaving the vast majority of the connecting traffic flows to move over PHL.

And as for LAX - absolutely. AA is already in such a great position at LAX, which this would only enhance and add to, that Parker would be absolutely insane to piss that away - which is why I doubt he would.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-21 12:07:31 and read 14915 times.

Here we go.....again -_-

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I agree. Bye-bye to LAX. AA/US can never hold up to the UA and DL presence there. Sure, there will be some international routes, I clearly see that. But JFK as a "hub" will be considerably pared down IMO for the very same reasons. It is impossible to have all 3 legacies call both of those airports "hubs."

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Oh they ALWAYS say that about every merger. Go ahead and talk to the good ol' folks out of STL, CVG, LAS, CLE, and MEM for me and see if they believe DP.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
PHX will likely see some cuts, but not a ton - it's a convenient way to get into several smaller west coast communities that would be too long of a hop from DFW, and too hard to get into congested LAX. Cuts you'd see might be some pruning of east coast flying that could be done over DFW (and ORD).
Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
PHX might have a shot, but DFW is much more powerful and essentially does the same job. I wouldn't be on the operating being anything bigger than LAX (in terms of hubbing) in 2-3 years.

ON THE CONTRARY: I have a bright future for PHX. Given all of what people have been saying about LAX, I highly doubt DP would want to close down his beloved Phoenix. I see DFW and PHX being strong hubs servicing different markets. DFW serving latin America, and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.) IMO these are strong alternatives to sending a bunch of nonsense to Los Angeles and DFW. The people in one of the nation's fastest growing metropolitan area wouldn't like that so much if that was to happen  

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 12:09:15 and read 14947 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I agree. Bye-bye to LAX. AA/US can never hold up to the UA and DL presence there. Sure, there will be some international routes, I clearly see that. But JFK as a "hub" will be considerably pared down IMO for the very same reasons. It is impossible to have all 3 legacies call both of those airports "hubs."

What on earth are you talking about?!? A combined AA+US will be the single largest airline at LAX! AA as it stands alone is not much smaller than UA+CO.

LAX will grow, PHX will be hurt because of it. No need to compete with PHX and it's junk yields with LAX nearby. PHX could serve a purpose as a West connecting hub complimenting the capacity that LAX can't handle due to terminal limitations.

The merger hurts the little chance PHX-Asia has of happening. With LAX, US no longer needs PHX-Asia they way it does today.

[Edited 2012-04-21 12:12:40]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 12:13:31 and read 14849 times.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):

(5) CLT will get a haircut similar to what Delta did to MSP. They may hang onto a London and Paris flight, but most passengers will be routed through PHL and JFK to Europe. Also many cities that are served with main-line flights will go to 70 seat regional AC. CLT will pay an important role, but mostly as a domestic connecting hub and provide feed into the AA network from the Southeast where AA really doesn't have much presence right now.

The problem with CLT is that it would probably a unwise decision to give up the Piedmont Atlantic area all to DL. A lot of people are saying all of the Caribbean flying will go to MIA. I agree to some extant, but I believe in a merger, CLT will serve as a more leisure Caribbean hub, while MIA will handle markets such as PAP/KIN/CUR,etc.. For example, a family wants to go to SXM for a holiday trip. It's highly unlikely that US going to fly PWM-MIA, so they will be routed over CLT. I do think that CLT may lose it's GIG flight, but I think it will be replaced by GRU. CLT "may" keep a flight to LON and CDG? I'm sure CLT will keep a flight to LON,CDG,and FRA. CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun. MAD will probably stay too, because it is a OW hub. I can't see too many cities being switched to Express. I can actually see more cities being added in the midwest.

CLT is a growing metro area, and I doubt US will downsize here significantly. And before anyone says anything about the size of the CLT metro area, there are three major cities located less than 1.5 hours away from CLT that have large populations: GSO at about 270,000, CAE at about 130,000, Greenville/Spartanburg at about 95, 000. All of these cities have fairly large metro areas as well. CLT is a catchment area for these communities (even though they have their own airport), so if these communities were combined into the Metrolina area, the population would obviously increase.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kamboi
Posted 2012-04-21 12:16:21 and read 14782 times.

What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: ckfred
Posted 2012-04-21 13:01:38 and read 14340 times.

[quote=kamboi,reply=32]What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

According to the agreements that US worked out with AA's unions, it will be American headquartered in the Metroplex.

I'm curious as to how US now admitting that it's trying to gain control of AA is playing out with US employees. Further, how is this playing with US employees at headquarters, since they would have to move to Texas.

Considering how much flak UA is now getting from the City of Houston for moving the headquarters of UA/CO to Chicago, how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2012-04-21 13:19:52 and read 14197 times.

Quoting kamboi (Reply 32):
What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

AA 100% for sure, as for the livery while I still love AA's current classic one, it might be time to refreshen it with a new image, plus with the airbuses coming in and the aforementioned issues about having them polished silver like the Boeing aircraft I could see a new livery potentially taking place. Maybe they could paint it metallic silver like NWA did. Will be interesting to see.

As far as hubs go, I dont see too many changes. Unlike DL which had some obvious overlap issues (CVG vs DTW & MEM vs ATL) and also UA (CLE vs ORD) AA and US's hubs have minimal overlap except for PHL & JFK and LAX and PHX but the plus side is as it is now the hubs work and serve different purposes, PHL is a NE megahub for domestic connections and Europe while JFK is more limited connections and more O&D focused. Same is kind of true in reverse for PHX and LAX. PHX is a true domestic connecting hub for intra mountain west and Mexico while LAX is more Asia/Pacific with limited connections as well. These hubs don't seem to go after the same flows as the DL and UA ones mentioned above.

CLT I think will be the true crown, it really would give AA a good sized hub in the southeast US which is a fast growing area and will be a good rival to DL at ATL. I would love to see some more midwestern cities like CID, PIA etc where AA has a good presence connected to CLT should a merger ensue. I think in retrospect AA has missed having a hub in that region since the closures of their dual southeast hub system at RDU and BNA.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 13:27:41 and read 14087 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
A lot of people are saying all of the Caribbean flying will go to MIA.

No one is saying that. Obviously the major trunk routes would remain, but the fact is that there would now be another connecting complex better-suited to serve many of these destinations from both a yield and geographical perspective. Additionally, either via this merger or AA emerging from BK, MIA will only be growing with the ability to use larger RJ's. Rationalization between the two will necessarily have to occur and I think a 'haircut' is probably the perfect word to describe it.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
I do think that CLT may lose it's GIG flight, but I think it will be replaced by GRU.

I'm sorry but if a GRU slot ever did become available, there are probably about a dozen other markets where AA could more profitably put it to use, namely ORD.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun.

You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
I can actually see more cities being added in the midwest.

DL struggles enough as it is with many ATL-Midwest routes, even with it's large market share through MSP/DTW/CVG, hard to see how CLT could be more successful in that respect.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
there are three major cities located less than 1.5 hours away from CLT that have large populations


...and I know a lot of people in the CLT area who also sometimes drive to these other cities to fly out of, the ultimate effect is pretty much neutralizing as far as traffic goes.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: stlgph
Posted 2012-04-21 13:31:48 and read 14117 times.

As reported on Friday, Philadelphia will take the largest hit. Charlotte will also be affected some.
The "hub" situation on the east coast will be dependent upon if the combined airline is forced to forfeit slots at DCA.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-21 13:40:27 and read 13979 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 33):
I'm curious as to how US now admitting that it's trying to gain control of AA is playing out with US employees. Further, how is this playing with US employees at headquarters, since they would have to move to Texas.

Considering how much flak UA is now getting from the City of Houston for moving the headquarters of UA/CO to Chicago, how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?

This combined airline would always have been branded 'American' - regardless of the circumstances - as the AA brand is substantially larger, older, and more recognized than USAirways. Plus, realistically, this merged carrier should and probably always would have been headquartered in Fort Worth. And, According to reporting in AvWeek, Parker & Co. acknowledged and accepted as much in their lobbying on Capitol Hill - that political fallout in Arizona was inevitable, but that the fallout was a price that had to be paid to get this done.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

CLT-Germany can definitely support at least one daily flight, even without the Lufthansa connections. There is a great deal of economic and cultural exchange between Germany and the Atlantic Southeast - lots of industrial and corporate connections, etc. A 'new AA' in oneworld, without the benefit of a Lufthansa partnership, should still be able to make a single daily CLT-FRA flight work. And, for the same reasons as above, Lufthansa may, too, maintain a single daily CLT-MUC flight.

Quoting stlgph (Reply 36):
As reported on Friday, Philadelphia will take the largest hit. Charlotte will also be affected some.
The "hub" situation on the east coast will be dependent upon if the combined airline is forced to forfeit slots at DCA.

"Reported" by who?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 13:41:08 and read 14054 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun.

You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

London is Charlotte's largest local market by far to Europe. And Munich is also a larger local market than Frankfurt from Charlotte.

Charlotte would absolutely lose GIG; and I doubt it will gain GRU, because that additional GRU frequency is better served from Chicago.

Charlotte-Rome is good as done, and moves to Miami. Dublin is probably done with, too, but I don't see that moving to Miami.

London, Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris are probably safe. And, of course, Lufthansa might very well leave CLT with no Star Alliance hub.

CLT simply will not win with this merge with regards to international flights. No current US hub will. Because what works from CLT, PHX and PHL works better from MIA, LAX and JFK, respectively.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: DeltAirlines
Posted 2012-04-21 13:45:43 and read 13951 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
ON THE CONTRARY: I have a bright future for PHX. Given all of what people have been saying about LAX, I highly doubt DP would want to close down his beloved Phoenix. I see DFW and PHX being strong hubs servicing different markets. DFW serving latin America, and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.) IMO these are strong alternatives to sending a bunch of nonsense to Los Angeles and DFW. The people in one of the nation's fastest growing metropolitan area wouldn't like that so much if that was to happen

What are you basing this on aside from hometown optimism and other types of thoughts?

Look at Phoenix to cities up and down the West Coast and Rockies. There is nonstop competition from Southwest to SAN, SNA, ONT, BUR, LAX, SJC, SMF, OAK, SFO, PDX, SEA, RNO, LAS, SLC, GEG and BOI.

The cities that US flies to out west out of PHX with no WN service are PSP, FAT, MRY, BFL, SBA, SBP, TUS, FLG and YUM - all pretty much USX-only (PSP and TUS see some mainline but that's it). Basically, on the routes with strong O&D numbers, yields are trash, and there just isn't enough volume in those smaller markets (where yields are quite strong) to balance it out.

Not to mention, for flow traffic in the region between Dallas and Phoenix, there just isn't much - middle America is very spread out. Yes, you might see cities such as LBB and AMA get a couple of RJs to PHX, but nothing special. There's just not a ton of population centers between Dallas and Phoenix to rely on flow from the east to support a West Coast network.

The city of Phoenix won't be terribly hurt by the merger. US will still likely have around 220-225 daily flights out of there - a very large focus city. Southwest will still have almost 200 daily 737s taking off out of there. Delta and United will still have around 30 daily flights out of there. There will still be very ample service for a city of its size.

(and hopefully with the merger, we'd see Hawaiian and Alaska move to the Delta side of Terminal 3 and pretty much allow United to take over the south part of Terminal 3).

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-04-21 13:47:53 and read 13940 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

CLT has more connecting passengers than MIA does. It is about higher yielding connecting passengers from small and midsized communities that can flow over CLT but not MIA

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I don't expect ORD to go anywhere. This merger would give AA the opportunity - finally - to be freed of contractual restrictions that limited the ability to effectively serve the ORD market. Namely, I see plenty of A319s and 70-90-seat capacity flowing into ORD to 'rightsize' the hub,

100% correct, I agree.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Why would it be smaller? US gives AA all sorts of "city presence" in cities in the NE, that only strengthens ORD. Plus US brings nothing in the midwest to replace ORD.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-21 13:58:15 and read 13780 times.

I hope post-merger the livery changes. It's too 70s and I don't like old-fashion. Just personal opinions

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Beeski
Posted 2012-04-21 14:02:27 and read 13779 times.

Quoting kamboi (Reply 32):
What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

American Airlines will be the name, no idea on livery.

Our foreign armchair CEO's need to understand the huge O&D at JFK, LAX and MIA.....those hubs will not be reduced...if anything, they will grow.

[Edited 2012-04-21 14:03:21]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 14:07:03 and read 13781 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 40):
Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

CLT has more connecting passengers than MIA does. It is about higher yielding connecting passengers from small and midsized communities that can flow over CLT but not MIA

You mean communities like Norfolk, Richmond, Charleston, Birmingham and Louisville? They all have non-stop service to MIA already.

Tiny communities like August, Charlottesville and Roanoke are not providing feed to the Caribbean that is significant.

Even so, AA having a Southeast hub gives AA more economies of scale presence in markets like AVL, ILM, etc., which can then have these markets support weekend service to MIA.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2012-04-21 14:13:26 and read 13638 times.

It seems as though a number of people here are spouting nonsense about LAX going away, not knowing the role LAX truly serves. LAX isn't just a hub for AA, it feeds and is fed by Oneworld's large and growing presence. AA has nine OW partners and six non-alliance partners(seven if you count B6) feeding in and out of AA's system. PHX, with its lone BA flight, will never replicate that level of cooperation.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 19):
It took CO about a year to leave Skyteam, and it didn't cost them anything.

That was a special situation. If I remember correctly CO was allowed to leave once NW was acquired by DL thus negating the "golden share" . US may not have to pay a fee since a merger with AA will prevent it from remaining in Star. Otherwise, I believe there is a large fine and cant join another alliance for a year(or two).

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.)

Absolutely not going to happen. Out west, Asia traffic flows through LAX and SFO for all airlines. PHX has no ability to support O&D traffic when compared to LA. The large hispanic population(mainly mexican) translates into low demand for Asian travel. I don't care how much Dougie loves PHX, PHX will not see any Asian traffic. The economics and demographics won't work.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
DFW serving latin America,

 

DFW has always served as a multi-region(EU, Asia, americas) hub, not just latin america. Do you research anything before you post?


Quoting ckfred (Reply 33):
how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?

They will just have to suck it up. The infrastructure located at DFW(Flagship U, SOC, maint.) dwarfs the Tempe HQ. In addition, its easier to move FA's, pilots, and plane to DFW as its more centrally located. PHX is too far west.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 14:14:49 and read 13632 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Well, US must disagree with you because from May 24th to October 26th, there will be two daily flights on CLT-FRA.

-US flight 704(A333) CLT-FRA departing 445pm
-US flight 706(A332) CLT-FRA departing 830pm

It says something that US takes the A332 from the CLTCDG route and swaps it with a B767 just for this flight.

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
CLT-Germany can definitely support at least one daily flight, even without the Lufthansa connections. There is a great deal of economic and cultural exchange between Germany and the Atlantic Southeast - lots of industrial and corporate connections, etc. A 'new AA' in oneworld, without the benefit of a Lufthansa partnership, should still be able to make a single daily CLT-FRA flight work. And, for the same reasons as above, Lufthansa may, too, maintain a single daily CLT-MUC flight.

Agreed. I think that LH will keep CLTMUC, but probably put a 333/343 on it year round. And if LH were to drop it, I'm willing to bet that AA/US would pick it up.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Charlotte would absolutely lose GIG

Absolutely.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Charlotte-Rome is good as done, and moves to Miami

Hmm..I seem to disagree. I wouldn't be surprised though it goes to a B767 and MIA gets a FCO flight as well. US does after all do this flight without onward connections in FCO.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Dublin is probably done with, too

Probably. But DUB is hard to tell, time shall see.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Lufthansa might very well leave CLT with no Star Alliance hub.

See above.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 14:26:43 and read 13487 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 44):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
DFW serving latin America,



DFW has always served as a multi-region(EU, Asia, americas) hub, not just latin america. Do you research anything before you post?

Geez...why don't you just bite his head off

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 45):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Well, US must disagree with you because from May 24th to October 26th, there will be two daily flights on CLT-FRA.

-US flight 704(A333) CLT-FRA departing 445pm
-US flight 706(A332) CLT-FRA departing 830pm

It says something that US takes the A332 from the CLTCDG route and swaps it with a B767 just for this flight.

That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 14:30:35 and read 13432 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 46):
That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?

I don't know what the PDEW is and frankly, could care less. I was just stating the fact that US is adding a second flight, and I believe that the carrier will continue to fly CLTFRA.

[Edited 2012-04-21 14:31:14]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 14:32:43 and read 13397 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 47):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 46):
That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?

I don't know what the PDEW is and frankly, could care less. I was just stating the fact that US is adding a second flight, and I believe that the carrier will continue to fly CLTFRA.

Well then yes, I completely agree

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-04-21 14:42:13 and read 13347 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.
I imagine JFK like PIT or BOS - some leftover legacy routes to cater to O&D. But connections would be routed through PHL, and a lot of flights would be cut.
Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

PHL and JFK do different fuctions and the 2 will continue to do what they currently do in a US/AA merger. PHL will be the major gateway to Europe and CLT will have some Europe and Latin America. PHL could gain flights to Brazil if things continue to expand there( merger or not).

JFK will be a big operation because its serves the biggest city in the USA, AA will keep and expand its international 777 & 787 ops there. This fiction that one or the other will not have a future in a merged airline is wrong, PHL wil continue because AA does not have the terminal space to absorb USair's PHL ops. BA may also move into AA's T8 so more moving into T8 on teh schedule already.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 14:49:05 and read 13271 times.

Should the merger go through, and LH decide to leave CLT, I wonder if BA would resume CLT..Highly unlikely IMHO.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 14:59:29 and read 13162 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 50):
Should the merger go through, and LH decide to leave CLT, I wonder if BA would resume CLT..Highly unlikely IMHO.

Oh I wouldn't say it's all that unlikely. Give it a year or two after the merger settles and I'm sure you'll see a BA tail in CLT. What FRA is for US now (alliance hub-to-hub with two daily flights) is what LHR would be to the combined carrier, so we may very well have a situation with AA operating one flight and BA operating the other.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-21 15:03:57 and read 13051 times.

Do you guys see IB or BA coming to CLT because of the OW

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 15:05:33 and read 13070 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 51):
Oh I wouldn't say it's all that unlikely. Give it a year or two after the merger settles and I'm sure you'll see a BA tail in CLT. What FRA is for US now (alliance hub-to-hub with two daily flights) is what LHR would be to the combined carrier, so we may very well have a situation with AA operating one flight and BA operating the other.

The next year or two at CLT will sure be interesting. A BA 763 is probably ideal for CLT. With the new airline, won't MAD serve the same purpose as FRA as well? (Part of which is why I think AA/US will continue to operate CLTMAD, however I view MAD as a poor European connecting hub)

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-04-21 15:08:30 and read 13009 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 24):
Well what you've just described - "O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes" - is basically what AA has now at both LAX and JFK. And I agree that is perfectly fine. Continue to optimize both LAX and JFK primarily for O&D and international/longhaul and use alternative hubs to handle more of the connections.

Well, yes & no. With respect to JFK - yes. However, AA has clearly developed LAX as a domestic and international connecting hub. I think this is evident based on the frequency of flights from LAX to non-hub cities versus JFK to non-hub cities. Most of AA's non-hub routes from JFK only have one flight and this flight is timed specifically for the evening TATL rush.

However, flights out of LAX to non hub cities contain multiple frequencies throughout the day. I think the multiple frequencies are geared to help stimulate domestic connection opportunties for AA customers in the west and provide feed for their international flights out of LAX.

Quoting commavia (Reply 24):
Isn't USAirways already at that "tipping point" in PHX? It doesn't appear to have slowed Southwest down. I think with the right CASM PHX makes sense, but I doubt the mere fact of AA (which is today basically a bit player in PHX) and USAirways merging is going to lead Southwest to reduce operations in PHX. I can understand a prediction for future growth to be more focused on LAS and DEN, but I don't think Southwest is going anywhere in PHX.

In my opinion, no. I think US/WN have found a balance at the moment with neither side making any drastic increases in share. However, I think the merger with AA will help tip this balance towards US's favor. While AA will directly add only 3% to 4% market share, I think there is also another X% of passengers who will switch from their carrier of choice to AA due to the larger network, better FF program, better international alliance partners, better premium product, etc.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 40):
Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Why would it be smaller? US gives AA all sorts of "city presence" in cities in the NE, that only strengthens ORD. Plus US brings nothing in the midwest to replace ORD.

I didn't say it would be smaller, but how large of a hub it will become. A revised union agreement could mean the utilization of larger RJs to help support more regional flying.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2012-04-21 16:41:35 and read 12389 times.

Very simply, the hubs in trouble if this merger goes down are PHX, CLT and ORD.

First, with a stronger western-to-eastern feed DFW will overcome the need for a hub in PHX. Like LAS, it will be reduced to a focus city.

CLT has a problem with eastern-to-western feed. It will become like PIT and lose its hub status. PHL and MIA are too close, domestically. MIA is home to too many South Am/Central Am/Carib bi-laterals, so much of that traffic will move to the MIA hub.

ORD may drop to a focus city to feed its international routes. However, its east-west overlap with DFW on the domestic side is the problem as hub.

[Edited 2012-04-21 16:43:07]

[Edited 2012-04-21 16:44:39]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 16:49:05 and read 12318 times.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 55):
CLT has a problem with eastern-to-western feed. It will become like PIT and lose its hub status. PHL and MIA are too close, domestically. MIA is home to too many South Am/Central Am/Carib bi-laterals, so much of that traffic will move to the MIA hub.

What are you talking about? PHL and MIA are too close? CLT to become a PIT?

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2012-04-21 17:04:42 and read 12186 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 56):
What are you talking about? PHL and MIA are too close? CLT to become a PIT?

Okay, PHL is the established US hub to Europe. It has more flights than CLT and serves the northeast and middle west with significant connecting traffic to Europe.

As I said, the AA MIA hub is owner to many, hard-won, international bi-laterals that would be tough to duplicate at CLT.

I hate to say this, but CLT is like PIT, RDU and BNA, which is in an uncomfortable position of being an hub that can be easily over-flown after this merger.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-21 17:10:48 and read 12133 times.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 57):

CLT will be fine, PHL will not be.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: DeltAirlines
Posted 2012-04-21 17:10:58 and read 12125 times.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 57):
I hate to say this, but CLT is like PIT, RDU and BNA, which is in an uncomfortable position of being an hub that can be easily over-flown after this merger.

But it's not when you look at the domestic route network.

There are only two real hubs in the Southeast United States - Atlanta and Charlotte. A passenger going from Greensboro to New Orleans has really only two options - Delta via Atlanta (or possibly Memphis) and US Airways via Charlotte. You can replicate that across the entire Southeast.

Miami is way too far south for this type of traffic, and Philadelphia is far too north. United can play at the periphery with Houston and Washington, but nothing absolutely great.

A lot of the flows for international traffic can absolutely be better served over PHL and MIA. But for domestic, it's not even comparable.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-04-21 17:20:56 and read 12061 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 58):

I echo the responses that PHL will be OK. PHL is the alternate to UA at EWR -- an all in one TATL mega hub in the mid Atlantic. As said, only UA's secondary IAD hub can compete with this but it's not in the same league. JFK will be O&D hub with the other One World carriers taking over a significant chunk of traffic. PHL prints money for US, whereas JFK does not for AA.

CLT will do fine but South America from CLT when MIA is only 700 miles south? No way. I can't see CLT-GIG continuing at all. The Caribbean routes will probably be fine though. MIA might loose some connecting spoke traffic to CLT. ERJ routings such as MIA-CMH/CLE/CVG/GSO might be served better from CLT. There will be some give and take from the MIA and CLT hubs. This is expected.

DFW will be king, ORD will stay as is. I think ORD will see some aircraft cross-fleeting rather soon with A32S and E170/E190 invading rather soon if the merger happens.

LAX is O&D like JFK so it should do fine. I definitely see LAX-PIT/CLT/PHL seeing AA 757s rather soon after the merger. PHX can be a toss up. Probably will take some cuts with LAX and DFW so close to it. I definitely say that it will be the loser overall but won't be given up either.

Sucks that AA/US won't have squat in Asia. This makes DL and UA more lucrative airlines overall.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: LordMontenegro
Posted 2012-04-21 17:24:42 and read 12002 times.

In a perfect world, and in my own uninformed and mathematically challenged little mind, I could see all of the hubs working together and complementing each other pretty well. They've got pretty much the entire US covered in some form or another, and the fact that some hubs are pretty close to each other can actually work to their advantage if they utilize them right (or so I believe). Here's my thoughts, based solely on zero scientific evidence what-so-ever:

JFK - I don't foresee AA/US giving up routes because NYC, while competitive, is a huge market and it would be foolish, in my opinion, to not at least take a stab at it. I can see higher-yield domestic and European flights, especially to the alliance partners' hubs and beyond, fed by profitable hub-to-hub flights and some domestic stuff, as well as some regional flying, too (although with the slots I don't know how much of this there would be; certainly nothing the size of PHL). If the slots allow it, some big Caribbean flights would helpful too, I think.

PHL - Being so close to JFK, I think they would be good as a reliever, focusing more on domestic US and especially regional flying, as well as a LGA-like shuttle between it and JFK. It would likely keep some of its O&D transatlantic routes, and maybe even some secondary ones if the fleet works out properly for it.

ORD - Focuses heavily on Midwest connections and, again, high-yielding markets. A mix of some international flights to big markets in Asia and Europe might be okay; it seems well-placed for that sort of thing, but taking care not to cannibalize any of their routes otherwise.

DFW - Southern and southwestern regional flying, plus South America and Middle East flights. Maybe even Africa in the distant future? This is based on oil companies alone so I'm not sure how viable that would actually be. And again I don't know the costs here but it seems like the high-yielding routes should go here again.

MIA - High-yield Caribbean and S. America hub, with a couple of flights to Portugal and Madrid, as well as Florida and other regional southern markets. I don't think it will be huge for domestic, mostly because of the aforementioned high costs per passenger, but it makes sense to use the massive Latin American O&D to have the bigger markets served, as well as regional connections and domestic flights that can bring a yield to make it all profitable.

CLT - I could see this as their strong, southeast domestic hub, as well as serving many Caribbean destinations that they already serve (probably on the same kind of schedule as well). That way they can still keep a huge southern presence, especially to the smaller cities, without having to pay the high costs of MIA. I'm not sure about their European routes; I feel like JFK/PHL/MIA would mostly take those away from them. And GIG to MIA as well.

LAX - Primarily Asia/Australia/Hawaii/high-yield routes, etc. Lots of big-city-west-coast connections would be nice but the competition from the LCC's would probably be quite fierce. I could see them pulling off a lot of trans-con flying to the larger East Coast markets. But I'm not highly familiar with either airline's history here, nor the competition.

PHX - Sort-of a reliever for both DFW and LAX, focusing on regional Southwest flying and other routes that may not be profitable for the more expensive airports. I could see it doing a few Central/South American/Mexico flights as well to leisure destinations and that sort of thing. I'm, again, blindly assuming it's cheaper to go out of here than LAX or DFW. Maybe keep some Hawaii as well?

... so yeah. That's my thoughts, feel free to correct me with actual facts and knowledge and understanding because I really have none of the above! But it seems viable to me...  

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kcrwflyer
Posted 2012-04-21 17:28:04 and read 11984 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
ON THE CONTRARY: I have a bright future for PHX. Given all of what people have been saying about LAX, I highly doubt DP would want to close down his beloved Phoenix. I see DFW and PHX being strong hubs servicing different markets. DFW serving latin America, and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.) IMO these are strong alternatives to sending a bunch of nonsense to Los Angeles and DFW. The people in one of the nation's fastest growing metropolitan area wouldn't like that so much if that was to happen  

So..PHX will become a strong hub at some point in the future? Interesting.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
You mean communities like Norfolk, Richmond, Charleston, Birmingham and Louisville? They all have non-stop service to MIA already.

Tiny communities like August, Charlottesville and Roanoke are not providing feed to the Caribbean that is significant.

Even so, AA having a Southeast hub gives AA more economies of scale presence in markets like AVL, ILM, etc., which can then have these markets support weekend service to MIA.

I think you're discounting the importance of feed from smaller cities, which is cumulatively significant. You might only have 15 Caribbean pax from CRW a day on US, but there are dozens of cities our size providing the same. Cities that couldn't support a flight to MIA mind you.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2012-04-21 17:30:24 and read 11945 times.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 59):
here are only two real hubs in the Southeast United States - Atlanta and Charlotte. A passenger going from Greensboro to New Orleans has really only two options - Delta via Atlanta (or possibly Memphis) and US Airways via Charlotte. You can replicate that across the entire Southeast.

Excellent point. But I think the day of the big domestic hub is declining. Many of these hubs were established during the Big 80's when $20-per-bbl oil made funneling dozens of jets into a single connecting point at one time a reasonable business model. But now with crude north of $100 per-bbl, domestic hubs are now much less efficient - too much ground time, too much of an opportunity for a network-collapsing weather delay. Thus, only those that can connect the most domestic traffic to the most international traffic will survive this decade.

Before I retired, I was a frequent flier from MCO. Given the choice, I flew point-to-point whenever possible (especially to the midwest and northeast) to avoid ATL and CLT. And going east-to-west, I would try to connect at DFW or PHX, as opposed to eastern hubs, if I could not go non-stop.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2012-04-21 17:34:45 and read 11950 times.

Parker knows SA)">AA and the network US will acquire.

CLT will lose focus to the Caribbean and SA in favor of MIA, but remain a strong hub (unlike failed attempts at BNA and RDU).

ORD will give US the MW presence, strong O&D, and business contracts that US is lacking. Will grow with the ABs available quickly. A major right-sizing is inevitable.

DFW will stay as is with more flights east at west (as PHX expense).

MIA will grow at CLT's expense (MIA is the hub of all hubs to Latin America and no reson to cut back here, CLT will lose flights.

JFK/PHL. Don't know which way to go here. PHL is a strong hub, but JFK and NYC, well?

LAX/PHX. PHX will lose HQ to DFW, and LAX is not that far away (with a ton of premium traffic). PHX could be like MDW, just a ton of WN planes.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 17:35:41 and read 11959 times.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 62):
I think you're discounting the importance of feed from smaller cities, which is cumulatively significant. You might only have 15 Caribbean pax from CRW a day on US, but there are dozens of cities our size providing the same. Cities that couldn't support a flight to MIA mind you.

No, I'm not discounting, those cities have absolutely tiny, insignificant Caribbean markets, even when taken cumulatively - I can look up the O&D figures and see. It's often less than 1 PDEW outside of the "big five" (SJU/PUJ/AUA/MBJ/NAS), which will continue to be served from Charlotte regardless.

Charleston already supports non-stop service to Miami on Spirit, as do many other small markets on Spirit and Allegiant.

There is no need to run Saturday/Sunday non-stops from Charlotte to smaller Caribbean markets. Those tiny markets you talk about can have Saturday/Sunday non-stops to Miami, where they barely help fill connecting flights to the Caribbean but, far more importantly, cater to cruise ship passengers.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 17:57:23 and read 11719 times.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 60):
ERJ routings such as MIA-CMH/CLE/CVG/GSO might be served better from CLT.

Not at all, especially considering the combined carrier would be able to use larger, more economical RJ's. The MIA flights from the cities you've mentioned are almost always full, sometimes to the point of being weight-restricted, and bring in great yields. Don't get me wrong, MIA will never become a domestic power-house, but with the right fleet at it's disposal, MIA only stands to grow domestically.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 18:24:54 and read 11499 times.

Looking at CLT's current Caribbean network, I'd expecting the following to stay:

BDA,AUA,GCM,MBJ,NAS,PUJ,STT,SXM,SJU. PLS and FPO may stay.

ANU,BGI,STX,SKB,UVF go.

I basically estimated this by comparing those that operate year round to those that operate on a seasonal, saturday only basis. You have to remember that several medium sized cities in the Northeast (BUF/SYR/ROC/ALB/PVD/MHT/ABE, etc..) do not have service to MIA, and are currently routed to CLT if they want to access these cities. In a merger, AA/US will have to beef up MIA service in the Northeast outside of BOS/BDL/NYC.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2012-04-21 19:23:21 and read 11136 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
The problem with CLT is that it would probably a unwise decision to give up the Piedmont Atlantic area all to DL. A lot of people are saying all of the Caribbean flying will go to MIA. I agree to some extant, but I believe in a merger, CLT will serve as a more leisure Caribbean hub, while MIA will handle markets such as PAP/KIN/CUR,etc..

Agreed. CLT will keep some frequencies to the larger Caribbean/Central America/Mexican markets, if only because MIA doesn't have the regional feed CLT does.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
Even so, AA having a Southeast hub gives AA more economies of scale presence in markets like AVL, ILM, etc., which can then have these markets support weekend service to MIA.

I could see a slight expansion of AA flying to markets like RIC and BHM from MIA once this goes through. And, to your point, I could see strong US secondary markets like ILM and AVL picking up a frequency to MIA to feed the AA Caribbean network if CLT-Caribbean flights are moved to MIA (particularly a market like AVL which has decent O&D to south Florida).

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 55):
CLT has a problem with eastern-to-western feed. It will become like PIT and lose its hub status.

US had hubs in BWI, PIT and PHL. Considerably more geographic overlap than PHL, CLT and MIA.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 57):
I hate to say this, but CLT is like PIT, RDU and BNA, which is in an uncomfortable position of being an hub that can be easily over-flown after this merger.

You're forgetting that CLT serves the fastest growing region of the nation, one that would have virtually no hub to serve it other that ATL. And AA has very little presence in the southeast now.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: brandonfsu05
Posted 2012-04-21 19:34:07 and read 11026 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
You mean communities like Norfolk, Richmond, Charleston, Birmingham and Louisville? They all have non-stop service to MIA already.

Yes, but at what frequencies? No one is saying your precious MIA isn't a super amazing hub. But, MIA is so far south that it can't pick up on some of the connecting traffic that CLT can. CLT is not an international destination. The flights that CLT has exist to an extent due to US Airway's limited hubs...sure...however, they are also there because CLT is cheap and has economies of scale now. CLT will be the biggest operation I'm sure after DFW...After PHL/JFK have routes or MIA has routes I would look for US/AA to add seasonal/complimentary service to places from CLT to try to capture new markets. The southeast is a region that will continue to grow in size and influence in the U.S. South American economies are doing well. There is talk of even having Brazil and Argentina on the road map for Visa Waiver eligibility...eventually the traffic to/from South America will become less MIA/JFK/Texas focused. Look at the diverse amount of service across the Atlantic...I'm not saying it would be one year after the merger...or 2....or 3....but eventually under US/AA CLT will gain solid South American service.

But after any merger I would see

BA LHR
AA LHR
AA FRA
AA MAD
AA CDG
AA FCO seasonal (people cite the amount of demand mia has for FCO...sure among italians...but the CLT demographic hasn't ever really been many Italians...it's more Americans coming from all over to go to FCO. Italians we get in CLT seem to be split among Columbia, SC (don't ask me why but there are a lot) MSY, and MIA.
LH MUC (i think lh will stick it out at least for a while...they capture some pretty interesting traffic flows...lots of local german businessmen...turks, balkans, and Russians, Ukrainians) Something that AA wouldn't be able to capture if they served the flight...

As far as the Caribbean goes... I see

PUJ
STT
AUA
SXM
PLS
GCM
SJU
MBJ
NAS
BDA
ANU (saturday/seasonal)
UVF (saturday/seasonal)
SKB (saturday/seasonal)
BGI (saturday/seasonal)
STX (saturday/seasonal)


Mexico/Central America

CUN
MEX
CZM (maybe saturday/seasonal)
BZE (saturday/seasonal)
LIR (saturday/seasonal)
SJD (saturday/seasonal)
SJO (saturday/seasonal)

Canada
YYZ
YOW GONE most likely
YUL maybe down to 1x daily

Basically, MIA's connecting banks pale in comparison in terms of depth and number to CLT's. A lot of MIA's flights are supported by big amounts of O&D. If they're filling these international planes with big amounts of O&D where is a lot of connecting traffic going to go? Oh that's right CLT and ATL. Cut many of these routes and you handover a lot of connecting traffic flows to DL. Of course O&D is more lucrative...but you can't always just focus on that...airlines have to always look at new ways to grow profit...while maybe CLT-PUJ is not going to be as lucrative as MIA-PUJ...having CLT-PUJ can still put some money in your bank. Seems to be way easier to add a complimentary flight from CLT to the Caribbean to capitalize on existing connecting traffic flows... than adding new 4x daily service from Knoxville to MIA or something.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: chepos
Posted 2012-04-21 19:36:49 and read 11033 times.

If the meger goes through we would see CLT-MUC dropped in a heartbeat. LH would loose it's feed on the CLT end as the star partner would no longer be there. BA would be a new tenant in terminal D, with a daily flight to LHR. The LGW route would be moved to LHR and US/AA would use the 333 on the run.
GIG from CLT would go BYE BYE.
I don't see TLV going to JFK- way too much competition (multiple dailies from LY, daily on DL and double daily on UA down the road at EWR.) I know the 332 struggles on the route so I could see the 772 operating the run in the future.
VCE and GLA would go up to JFK
I think CLT TATL flights would be as follow- LHR, MAD and FRA. CDG and DUB would go by the way side in my personal opinion.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 19:46:24 and read 10986 times.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
Yes, but at what frequencies?

Twice daily for most of the entire Eagle network from MIA to small Southeast markets. There will be no need for the secondary Charlotte-Caribbean flights when MIA has twice daily service to ORF, CHS, BHM, etc. as it stands before the merger.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
AA FCO seasonal (people cite the amount of demand mia has for FCO...sure among italians...but the CLT demographic hasn't ever really been many Italians...it's more Americans coming from all over to go to FCO. Italians we get in CLT seem to be split among Columbia, SC (don't ask me why but there are a lot) MSY, and MIA.

But it's not just that. There is no need for FCOCLT to compliment ORDFCO, JFKFCO and PHLFCO. MIAFCO compliments that trio far better.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Squid
Posted 2012-04-21 19:46:37 and read 10963 times.

Anyone that believes that PHX will be the winner over LAX is not living in reality. And that goes for people that believe CLT will close too. MIA is NOT a good hub for connecting domestic passengers, however CLT is. MIA, LAX and JFK are better suited for O&D while providing some connecting traffic. CLT and PHL have lower costs and are fortress hub, therefore they are much better suited for connections. CLT and to a lesser extend PHL are what will make this merger worthwhile. Also, I believe that Parker and the US management see the problems with ORD, that too will not close until/unless a major bloody battle has been fought. ORD will under-go some major restructuring, but it will be mainly changes to utilize the right aircraft for the mission. AA desperately needs 76 jets in ORD, and they need to get rid of many of their 50 seaters. And LAX, like JFK, will not be going anywhere. It is way too important for OneWorld connections, and when AA gets the 787's on-line, I could see AA actually launching many of their own Trans-Pac flights in the future. O&D is vital to making these flights work (Trans-Pac) and that is not something PHX can provide no matter how much lower their landing and boarding fees are.

What I don't understand though is how people here cannot see the potential for major expansion at DFW this merger will bring about (in my opinion). If I were to guess, I would think that this is what Parker sees and the biggest asset to get. I can definitely see Parker taking the gloves off in DFW to kick out Spirit and Virgin America, and to really go after United in Houston. DFW is an amazing airport. It is efficient, has room to expand, is in a perfect location for many routing pairs domestically and internationally to Mexico, and Central & South America and the Dallas economy is on fire. Once the merger is integrates networks, I could envision something like 15 flights a day between DFW and CLT. I think those 2 hubs will be the most integrated network wise. It will be the ultimate solution to Delta in ATL, especially when you factor in MIA as well. ATL will be surrounded by CLT, DFW, and MIA. AA will then be a force to be reckoned with in the Southeast, something AA was trying to be with BNA and RDU in the 80’s but never quite achieved.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2012-04-21 20:03:01 and read 10854 times.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 57):

Okay, PHL is the established US hub to Europe. It has more flights than CLT and serves the northeast and middle west with significant connecting traffic to Europe.

As I said, the AA MIA hub is owner to many, hard-won, international bi-laterals that would be tough to duplicate at CLT.

I hate to say this, but CLT is like PIT, RDU and BNA, which is in an uncomfortable position of being an hub that can be easily over-flown after this merger.

sorry, but totally have to disagree on this one...First off, CLT is US's largest hub with about 650 flights a day, I think PHL has something like 450, so it has 200 more flights than PHL. CLT will be one of the main gains in this merger for AA, assuming US is calling the shots. MIA is a good LatAm/ South American Carribean hub, but a bad domestic hub geographically speaking. If I'm an AA flyer wanting to go from IND/CVG/CMH/EVV etc to MYR/ILM/ORF/CHS etc etc CLT is the perfect connecting hub, not MIA. If CLT was to go, DL would control the SE...US/AA would be stupid to let it go. I would bet in a heartbeat UA would come in and swoop it up as a hub if that would ever happen.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):

DL struggles enough as it is with many ATL-Midwest routes, even with it's large market share through MSP/DTW/CVG, hard to see how CLT could be more successful in that respect.

huh? how so? OMA has gotten mainline back to ATL, DSM has been upgraded to a mainline flight for the first time ever on DL to ATL, CID was brought back last year at 1x daily and will be 3x daily ATL this summer, MLI has always been a strong performer to ATL on DL, PIA also has had ATL flights return as did MSN. I dont see them struggling at all on DL to the midwest from ATL. Quite the opposite, they seem to be growing and complimenting the DTW and MSP flights.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 55):
Very simply, the hubs in trouble if this merger goes down are PHX, CLT and ORD.

First, with a stronger western-to-eastern feed DFW will overcome the need for a hub in PHX. Like LAS, it will be reduced to a focus city.

CLT has a problem with eastern-to-western feed. It will become like PIT and lose its hub status. PHL and MIA are too close, domestically. MIA is home to too many South Am/Central Am/Carib bi-laterals, so much of that traffic will move to the MIA hub.

ORD may drop to a focus city to feed its international routes. However, its east-west overlap with DFW on the domestic side is the problem as hub.[Edited 2012-04-21 16:43:07][Edited 2012-04-21 16:44:39]

CLT is 700 miles from MIA how is that too close? PHL and CLT already exist as major hubs for the same airline today, how is that too close? CLT and MIA serve different flows. And if AA drops to focus city in ORD it may as well close up shop. They have to remain on par with UA if they want to be there, you cant have a small hub up against a mega hub (see what happend to DL in DFW). ORD has always been important for AA, at one time being the perferred airline for biz pax there. There is no east west overlap bewteen it and DFW, they have co existed for years. DFW is well to the south. You are not going to fly from BOS to SEA through DFW (although Im sure its been done, but clearly ORD is the more direct routing in this example). ORD isnt going anwywhere or downsizing in this merger.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2012-04-21 20:05:18 and read 10835 times.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
ORD will have to stick around simply because there is no other viable option in the midwest.

Isn't AA "in de-hubing stage" STL located in the midwest? AA moving its hub to STL leaving ORD with its more profitable O/D routes would be a very drastic and daring move for the new US-AA.
IMHO, PHL and JFK might be close distancewise but it'll be very foolish to move AA profitable JFK international flights to PHL.
AA JFK international flights may remain as mostly O/D, while for connecting passengers MIA, CLT and depending of the market PHL, DFW, PHX will be the airport of choice.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-04-21 20:09:41 and read 10785 times.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
LH MUC (i think lh will stick it out at least for a while...they capture some pretty interesting traffic flows...lots of local german businessmen...turks, balkans, and Russians, Ukrainians) Something that AA wouldn't be able to capture if they served the flight...
Quoting chepos (Reply 70):
CLT-MUC dropped in a heartbeat. LH would loose it's feed on the CLT end as the star partner would no longer be there

I look at it like this...LH has been flying the route for around 9 years now. The flight has stimulated the local market and CLTMUC is the largest O/D route to Europe in the Carolinas, after CLTLON and RDULON. I think they could survive without the US feed, albeit on a small aircraft year round.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 71):
But it's not just that. There is no need for FCOCLT to compliment ORDFCO, JFKFCO and PHLFCO. MIAFCO compliments that trio far better.

Hahaha it sounds like your picking a prom group or something. "MIAFCO is prettier than CLTFCO so I don't want it in the group!"

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: AAIL86
Posted 2012-04-21 20:11:53 and read 10772 times.

The whole point of these mergers is to be aggressive. Delta has been über-aggressive as we all know. I suspect UA will grow increasingly so as its merger is completed. So Mr. Parker will certainly want to grab at everything initially - JFK - PHL - LAX - even retaining PHX as is. Now - merger +2 years - things will certainly change. PHX could be drawn down to the level of DL's operation at SLC. AA/US may decide that the piece of garbage masquerading as an airline terminal in PHL isn't worth the trouble.

At the start, through - I expect a grandiose plan for the new airline and maximum aggression.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.

That JFK terminal is one of the most valuable pieces of infrastructure American owns. Oil will be $300 a barrel before a combined AA/US do as you suggest. Now, that doesn't mean that JFK's role won't change for this new carrier. I don't see a reduction in flight count at all - but the focus will probably shift more to O&D.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):

I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.

You are quite right in your analysis at the moment. But the rate at which Brazil is growing , AA's market dominance to Latin American -plus AA/US's potentially improved competitive position vis-à-vis PMAA, and the presumed entry of JJ into the oneworld alliance make me wonder if CLT-GIG could be maintained. Who knows, CLT-GRU could be next.
Or not. We'll just have to see....

Quoting LordMontenegro (Reply 61):
DFW - Southern and southwestern regional flying, plus South America and Middle East flights. Maybe even Africa in the distant future? This is based on oil companies alone so I'm not sure how viable that would actually be. And again I don't know the costs here but it seems like the high-yielding routes should go here again.

Well, DFW does have quite a nice share of oil traffic -but not like IAH does. Oil traffic alone won't generate flights to Africa, for example, from DFW. I'd expect MIA-JNB/CPT first if AA decides to roll to Africa. However, DFW-HKG/ICN are certainly very distinct possibilities. More adventurous predictions could include DFW-AUH (if AA were to cooperate more with EY) or multiple DFW-Oceania routes(BNE [independent of current SYD route] /MEL/AKL) using the 787.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-21 20:16:47 and read 10700 times.

Quoting chepos (Reply 70):

LH has been flying this route for 9 years, there not going anywhere no matter what happens

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-21 20:22:25 and read 10644 times.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
No one is saying your precious MIA isn't a super amazing hub.

No need to get petty about all this.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
But, MIA is so far south that it can't pick up on some of the connecting traffic that CLT can.

For North/South international traffic flows it absolutely can. Sure you won't see MIA with 600 plus daily flights with 8 daily flights to the likes of CAE or GSO etc, but as it is right now, MIA successfully supports service to a multitude of small-midsized cities on the notoriously inefficient ERJs. But in the immediate future we'll be seeing E-jets/larger CRJs entering the fleet, making service to MIA possible/feasible for even more domestic markets.

As I said before, I don't think CLT will lose all Caribbean flying, but for most of the niche Saturday-only services, why work so hard to sell seats on the flights through CLT at junk yields when you can do it more profitably through MIA.


Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
but eventually under US/AA CLT will gain solid South American service.

It'll definitely be a while before that claim can be definitively made given the lukewarm performance of GIG even with all the CLT connections.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
AA FCO seasonal (people cite the amount of demand mia has for FCO...sure among italians...but the CLT demographic hasn't ever really been many Italians

I think it will be a toss-up, if there's slack in the fleet, why not fly it? But if the long-haul fleet is stretched thin, then yeah I could see them moving the flight to MIA from an opportunity cost perspective.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 69):
Basically, MIA's connecting banks pale in comparison in terms of depth and number to CLT's.

...because the MIA hub has never been about having vast banks of domestic connections to transfer domestic passengers. The strategy has always been and still remains connecting domestic pax to MIA's international flights, requiring only 1-2 frequencies to time in with the 2-3 large banks of Caribbean/Central/South American departures.

Quoting Squid (Reply 72):
And that goes for people that believe CLT will close too. MIA is NOT a good hub for connecting domestic passengers, however CLT is

For the fifteen billionth time, no one is seriously suggesting that CLT will close or that they're going to turn MIA into a mega domestic hub to replace it. The question concerns the north/south international traffic flows that both MIA and CLT serve.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 75):
The flight has stimulated the local market and CLTMUC is the largest O/D route to Europe in the Carolinas, after CLTLON and RDULON. I think they could survive without the US feed, albeit on a small aircraft year round.

The same could be said of other TATL routes flown for longer and since have been dropped.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 77):
Quoting chepos (Reply 70):

LH has been flying this route for 9 years, there not going anywhere no matter what happens

hmmm, famous last words

[Edited 2012-04-21 20:33:05]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-21 20:27:19 and read 10653 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 75):
Hahaha it sounds like your picking a prom group or something. "MIAFCO is prettier than CLTFCO so I don't want it in the group!"

I am not picking a prom group. I am looking at what spokes the Rome market is best-served with a combined US-AA network while still keeping capacity to Rome at a reasonable level. CLTFCO loses out.

Make no mistake: this merge would suck for Charlotte-Europe. Charlotte is the most over served U.S. city to Europe, but it's because US doesn't have a more viable second option after PHL. But with US+AA, MIA, LAX, JFK, ORD and DFW are all better second options.

CLT's biggest feeders for Europe flights are Florida and California. MIA and ORD handle these markets better with 10x the local market.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Mcoov
Posted 2012-04-21 20:37:15 and read 10563 times.

I say:

Keep JFK for what it has, but strengthen PHL as a potential successor. Also, get friendly with Amtrak. Since PHL is roughly equidistant from both NYC and DC, you could make serve both cities well this way. You'd also be able to serve Boston and Baltimore.

Demote PHX in favor of LAX, but don't lose it altogether.

Use CLT in conjunction with MIA to serve the south; CLT as a domestic hub with some international flights (London, Toronto, etc.), MIA as an international hub with a healthy amount of domestic traffic, and lots of shuttle traffic between the two.

DFW is still the megafortress.

Rebuild ORD.

As for PIT...oh wait...   

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-21 23:09:10 and read 9890 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
What on earth are you talking about?!? A combined AA+US will be the single largest airline at LAX! AA as it stands alone is not much smaller than UA+CO.

Maybe not after AA moves lower-yielding connecting traffic away from LAX to PHX, as they should if they want to properly utilize LAX with an O&D focus and transPacific flights.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 60):
PHL prints money for US, whereas JFK does not for AA.

This might change if AA also moves lower-yielding domestic connections from JFK to PHL, see above generally.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 60):
Sucks that AA/US won't have squat in Asia.

Yet.

Quoting LordMontenegro (Reply 61):
PHL - Being so close to JFK, I think they would be good as a reliever, focusing more on domestic US and especially regional flying, as well as a LGA-like shuttle between it and JFK. It would likely keep some of its O&D transatlantic routes, and maybe even some secondary ones if the fleet works out properly for it.

The "R" word is somewhat considered profanity on these boards. What you are referring to really isn't a reliever at all.

Quoting LordMontenegro (Reply 61):
LAX - Primarily Asia/Australia/Hawaii/high-yield routes, etc. Lots of big-city-west-coast connections would be nice but the competition from the LCC's would probably be quite fierce.

That's what that handy-dandy AS codeshare is for.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-21 23:23:59 and read 9861 times.

I don't really know why US is going for this merger if 2 of their 3 key hubs are going to be shut down, according to all of you. If CLT and PHX meant anything to DP he wouldn't be doing this.         

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2012-04-22 00:20:25 and read 9652 times.

Here's an interesting thought ....

Is it possible that pre-merger US could decide to work out another slot swap? Only this time DCA-JFK and/or LGA-JFK slots with B6.

... or would that somehow be illegal now that they're moving to try and merge with AA?

[Edited 2012-04-22 00:28:21]

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: jamake1
Posted 2012-04-22 00:58:53 and read 9538 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 82):
Maybe not after AA moves lower-yielding connecting traffic away from LAX to PHX, as they should if they want to properly utilize LAX with an O&D focus and transPacific flights.

Disagree with you there buddy. PHX likely will be the biggest loser in a AA-US tie-up. Also, the OP omitted DCA.

With that said, my take is the following:

PHL...will become stronger (at JFK's expense)

MIA...will become stronger (at CLT's expense)

DCA...will become stronger (at CLT's expense)

DFW...will become stronger (at PHX's expense)

ORD...will hold its own

LAX...will become stronger (at PHX's expense)

The primary cornerstones of a merged AA-US network will number 6 hubs: DCA, PHL, MIA, ORD, DFW, and LAX.

CLT, JFK/LGA, and PHX will be scaled down as focus cities with still very large operations, but not cornerstones of the the new AA network...The New Yorkers may disagree with me, but that's my take and I'm stickin' to it...

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: jamake1
Posted 2012-04-22 01:02:31 and read 9491 times.

My bad PHX787, I meant to quote HPRamper.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kcrwflyer
Posted 2012-04-22 06:00:29 and read 8974 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 82):
I don't really know why US is going for this merger if 2 of their 3 key hubs are going to be shut down, according to all of you. If CLT and PHX meant anything to DP he wouldn't be doing this.         

I don't think anyone that knows how CLT performs has said it will be shut down or scaled down. PHX, however, would appear to be the weakest US hub any way you look at it.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-04-22 07:06:11 and read 8822 times.

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 84):
DCA...will become stronger (at CLT's expense)

How are you defining stronger? DCA is slot controlled so the combined airline could not increase its presence at DCA w/o acquiring additional slots. Based on what we've seen recently, more and more of these slots are going to carriers with smaller or no presence at the airport so I don't think we will see them receiving approval for many, if any, additional slots after the merger takes place.

On the other hand, if your definition of stronger is based on profitability, then I could arguably see that point of view as the combined airline's large presence would most likely result in higher average fares.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: NYCAAer
Posted 2012-04-22 07:06:45 and read 8835 times.

I am amazed by how many people think JFK/LGA would just become a focus city for O & D traffic. Currently at AA, we sell more seats in the premium cabins out of New York than any other market we serve other than LHR. Obviously, it makes sense to go after the money and where AA still has a good number of corporate contracts, regardless of whether or not there are just too many players in NY.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: aeroblogger
Posted 2012-04-22 07:27:57 and read 8770 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 87):

How are you defining stronger? DCA is slot controlled so the combined airline could not increase its presence at DCA w/o acquiring additional slots.

Upgauging aircraft is an option - lots of RJs in US' DCA operation.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-04-22 07:31:54 and read 8769 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 82):
I don't really know why US is going for this merger if 2 of their 3 key hubs are going to be shut down, according to all of you. If CLT and PHX meant anything to DP he wouldn't be doing this.

It's really only 1 out of 3 (or 3.5 depending on how you 'count' DCA). I don't agree with those who suggest that if this is to happen, CLT and PHL will be big losers. There would be capacity optimization and rebalancing among all the hubs - surely - but both CLT and PHL are just fine as hubs for the purpose they serve. PHX, on the other hand, is fine if there is no alternative, but a new, larger AA would have alternatives - to a certain extent - which is why some aren't as sure of PHX's longterm prospects if this were to happen.

Quoting EricR (Reply 87):
How are you defining stronger? DCA is slot controlled so the combined airline could not increase its presence at DCA w/o acquiring additional slots. Based on what we've seen recently, more and more of these slots are going to carriers with smaller or no presence at the airport so I don't think we will see them receiving approval for many, if any, additional slots after the merger takes place.

I suppose a 'new AA' - or USAirways now for that matter - could grow DCA by upgauging capacity, but in general, yeah, I agree with you - slot constraints will obviously limit the amount of growth any airline is able to generate at DCA. And I also agree that DCA is certainly not likely to gain much at CLT's expense.

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 88):
I am amazed by how many people think JFK/LGA would just become a focus city for O & D traffic.

Well, it can never really become a hub without a merger with JetBlue, which is the only airline (besides Delta) in New York that has a huge pool of slots at an airport where AA could use them. Failing that, AA can never really have a true northeast "hub" in New York on par with what United has at EWR or what USAirways has at PHL.

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 88):
Currently at AA, we sell more seats in the premium cabins out of New York than any other market we serve other than LHR. Obviously, it makes sense to go after the money and where AA still has a good number of corporate contracts, regardless of whether or not there are just too many players in NY.

... all the more reason that AA should, and I suspect will (regardless of the outcome of this), focus their New York operation as much as possible on O&D - out of both JFK and LGA - and cater to some connections in markets where it makes sense. But, if this USAirways merger happens, it could provide AA - for the first time in years - with a viable northeast hub over which to route more of the connecting volume, leaving AA to return to their historical optimization in New York, which was always focused more on the local premium demand and corporate contracts you alluded to.

In such a scenario, I could see AA shifting a few of the more premium leisure or financial-heavy Europe markets up from PHL to JFK (specifically VCE, TLV, GLA, and possibly one of the FRA flights), plus using some freed up peak-time JFK slots to grow into some other premium longhaul or transcon markets. At LGA, a combined 'new AA' would be sitting on a massive pool of slots - not as big as Delta, perhaps, but still huge - that could definitely be deployed in a more effective way to facilitate a larger push into the huge New York O&D market. Slots freed up at LGA by eliminating redundant flying and 'excess' frequency could be used to start a few new LGA routes to premium-heavy domestic markets (I could envision perhaps a few flights to places like MCI, IND, CVG, IAH, etc.).

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-04-22 08:01:28 and read 8678 times.

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 88):

I am amazed by how many people think JFK/LGA would just become a focus city for O & D traffic. Currently at AA, we sell more seats in the premium cabins out of New York than any other market we serve other than LHR. Obviously, it makes sense to go after the money and where AA still has a good number of corporate contracts, regardless of whether or not there are just too many players in NY.

Speaking for myself, and myself only, I will say that AA will retain some type of hub presence for international flights, but it is extremely difficult to develop JFK into a full fledged hub with domestic connections when AA would be unable to operate a bank of flights in the late afternoon/ early evening (prime travel times) due to traffic restrictions. AA's only solution here is to use the B6 code share arrangement or use PHL to handle some connections post merger.

This is why I think JFK remains focused on international, transcons, and single frequency flights to spokes for international feed. However, it cannot develop a full fledged hub out of JFK.

AA never should have let those prime slots slip away and now are forced to use a patchwork of solutions in the northeast (hub at JFK, LGA, B6 codeshare, and will have to factor in PHL) instead of having one solid hub like CO developed at EWR. Extremely inefficient operation in my opinion.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: RyeFly
Posted 2012-04-22 08:49:07 and read 8566 times.

If Jerry Orr (CLT's airport director) is willing to spend $1 Billion to upgrade CLT by adding a new international terminal , 4th parellel runway, etc, he already knows US/AA plan to grow CLT further. He is about the cheapest guy out there, which has been a good thing for CLT in order to keep its costs down for US . He typically doesn't give many details about future plans until a couple weeks ago when he said ... "Eventually, the airport could have separate terminals connected by a tram, similar to ATL." and "he believes Charlotte’s airport could one day be bigger than Atlanta’s."



On a side note since I fly on the route often...If they do merge it will be nice to get on something better then a junky 737-400 or erj from CLT to MIA. The route would probably be upgraded to A321 or 757 with the occasional widebody for repositioning.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: iFlyLOTs
Posted 2012-04-22 09:23:28 and read 8460 times.

Could we see US/AA trying to open up a hub somewhere in Asia? Like what DL has with NRT or UA with GUM? They would definitely need more coverage in Asia and something like that would definitely help them out

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHXA340
Posted 2012-04-22 09:26:23 and read 8449 times.

Quoting Mcoov (Reply 80):
Demote PHX in favor of LAX, but don't lose it altogether.

Where do you propose the new AA funnels west coast and mountain west traffic through ? LAX is out of gates.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-22 09:35:23 and read 8397 times.

Quoting RyeFly (Reply 92):
If Jerry Orr (CLT's airport director) is willing to spend $1 Billion to upgrade CLT by adding a new international terminal , 4th parellel runway, etc, he already knows US/AA plan to grow CLT further.

Master plans mean nothing in the grand scheme of things and are absolutely no indication of any 'insider' knowledge concerning US/AA plans for CLT. You should have seen some of the master plans STL, CVG, or PIT had up until just a few years ago.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Squid
Posted 2012-04-22 09:45:09 and read 8385 times.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 93):
Could we see US/AA trying to open up a hub somewhere in Asia? Like what DL has with NRT or UA with GUM? They would definitely need more coverage in Asia and something like that would definitely help them out

This is highly unlikely. United and Delta's hubs in NRT are assets that were acquired from Pan Am and Northwest, which were developed in a bygone era when DC-7’s, Constellations, Stratocruisers, DC-8’s and 707’s needed to make fuel stops, and only 2 U.S. airlines were allowed to do it. Furthermore, in this day and age, with AC that have longer range and passengers wanting to make fewer stop-overs and connections, establishing a hub in Asia is not a wise move. AA would be better off launching flights with 787's out of LAX, ORD, JFK, and DFW that bypass an Asian hub and fly directly into major cities in Asia. AA can then rely on JAL and Cathay Pacific to route passengers into smaller cities throughout Asia. Today even United and Delta are relying less and less on NRT and HKG and flying more non-stops too.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: AWACSooner
Posted 2012-04-22 10:23:17 and read 8247 times.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

           

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: brandonfsu05
Posted 2012-04-22 10:24:12 and read 8238 times.

When you look at the time blocks

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 95):
Master plans mean nothing in the grand scheme of things and are absolutely no indication of any 'insider' knowledge concerning US/AA plans for CLT. You should have seen some of the master plans STL, CVG, or PIT had up until just a few years ago.

Not agreeing/disagreeing...just pointing out that your logic is flawed. Let's not assume what may have been true for STL, CVG, PIT is true for CLT. While I won't discount the possibility that what you say could be true...you dismiss the notion as if you have ''insider'' knowledge.

I think it can pretty much be summed up from the airliners.net echo chamber that AA/US should close CLT/PHX/PHL.

AA should establish cornerstone hubs in LAX/ORD/JFK/MIA/DFW in order to be profitable...because THAT sure worked.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-22 10:32:50 and read 8211 times.

Quoting Mcoov (Reply 80):
Demote PHX in favor of LAX, but don't lose it altogether.

Maybe hand LAX Terminal 1 over FL-WN ?

Perhaps concentrate on AA-QF Terminal 4 which has underutilized mainline gates.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-22 10:37:23 and read 8179 times.

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 88):
I am amazed by how many people think JFK/LGA would just become a focus city for O & D traffic. Currently at AA, we sell more seats in the premium cabins out of New York than any other market we serve other than LHR.

Those don't contradict one another. I would venture a guess that the vast majority of those premium seats are bought by O&D passengers. I don't think it's a very big stretch at all to say if AA were smart they would focus on this passenger rather than the low-yielding connection pax who bought the cheapest seat on the plane.

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 84):
LAX...will become stronger (at PHX's expense)

How? There are very, very few flows that are more convenient/cost effective to flow over LAX vs. PHX.

Quoting PHXA340 (Reply 94):
Where do you propose the new AA funnels west coast and mountain west traffic through ? LAX is out of gates.

That too.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2012-04-22 10:46:21 and read 8160 times.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 98):


I think it can pretty much be summed up from the airliners.net echo chamber that AA/US should close CLT/PHX/PHL.


No way CLT goes, its the only other viable hub in the southeast. That's akin to saying DL should have closed DTW and MSP. CLT brings the southeast to the potential new AA. An area where they are pretty weak to non existant. I dont understand why people keep thinking they should close CLT. MIA again is too far south, and only works for Florida connections and the Carribean/Latin and South America destinations and is a poor hub geographically speaking for connections to the Carolinas, and interior southeast. CLT has location going for it. The triangle from CLT, MIA and DFW will give AA awesome coverage to be a viable competitor to DL in the nations fastest growing region.

PHL should stay too, one of the nations largest metro areas, fortress hub and functions completely different from JFK.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HONDAH35
Posted 2012-04-22 10:50:16 and read 8188 times.

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 84):
Disagree with you there buddy. PHX likely will be the biggest loser in a AA-US tie-up. Also, the OP omitted DCA.


DFW...will become stronger (at PHX's expense)

LAX...will become stronger (at PHX's expense)

PHX might indeed become a net loser in this whole thing, but it would certainly have more to do with overall industry strength than anything else. DFW could snag some service at the expense of PHX, but the whole idea which is often suggested of LAX increasing service at the expense of PHX is just pure fantasy. Anybody who regularly travels through T4 and the RJ terminal at LAX knows this. They would struggle to increase service there at all due to the gate limitations and certainly they couldn't even fathom taking as much as a small hub bank from PHX. I think PHX needs to worry more about losing mainline service than overall service.

Topic: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-22 11:02:23 and read 8116 times.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 73):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):

DL struggles enough as it is with many ATL-Midwest routes, even with it's large market share through MSP/DTW/CVG, hard to see how CLT could be more successful in that respect.

huh? how so? OMA has gotten mainline back to ATL, DSM has been upgraded to a mainline flight for the first time ever on DL to ATL, CID was brought back last year at 1x daily and will be 3x daily ATL this summer, MLI has always been a strong performer to ATL on DL, PIA also has had ATL flights return as did MSN. I dont see them struggling at all on DL to the midwest from ATL. Quite the opposite, they seem to be growing and complimenting the DTW and MSP flights.

Exactly...only just now, after having merged with NW and capitalizing on their Midwest market share is DL returning/expanding ATL service to these markets. Before the merger, the markets you mentioned were weak from ATL with no mainline and 2-3 CRJ's per day. For all it's positive attributes, ATL has just never been a strong Midwestern hub.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 98):
While I won't discount the possibility that what you say could be true...you dismiss the notion as if you have ''insider'' knowledge.

Because I know how master planning and airport boards work. With rare exception like CLE's case where they actually have or had a seat on the board of directors at CO/UA, airports aren't privy to really any insider info at the airlines.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 98):
I think it can pretty much be summed up from the airliners.net echo chamber that AA/US should close CLT/PHX/PHL.

Not at all. While PHX may arguably be up in the air, I've only seen one person in this entire thread patently declare that CLT would be dehubbed. There's no question really that CLT would remain an important hub in the network, the debate is simply over how big/how MIA being brought into the network will affect it.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-22 11:22:45 and read 8051 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 103):

Are you kidding me, CLT will stay as a hub, It might loss GIG but CLT is not going anywhere, it's cheap to operate out of, CLT is the most profitable route for us airways, Doug Parker will not give that, PHL will be dehubbed. I read on the Charlotte observer saying that US wants to downsize it.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: caliboy78
Posted 2012-04-22 11:23:25 and read 8066 times.

OK here are my two cents.....

LAX is in the process of spending $20 million in renewing the Eagle terminal to make it bigger and more comfortable for the customers as well as revising the look of T-4..... Also as all of us know SA)">AA will be receiving 4 preferred gates from TBIT when they open the west side of TBIT sometime in 2013...... SA)">AA has plans to realign the gates in T-4 and will gain 1 or 2 additional gates in the process if not more therefore allowing SA)">AA to grow.... I know and we all know LAX will grow.... Will it be 300+ flights a day? No...... Will SA)">AA grow to be bigger than SA)">UA or SA)">DL? I strongly believe so....... Will SA)">AA/US merger cause PHX to close? Absolutely not..... However I strongly believe PHX will be just as LAS was when SA)">HP/US merged another focus city....

CLT and MIA..... I believe we will see CLT as the relive for better domestic connections and some SA and Caribbean flights and maybe some key markets in Europe but that's about it......

JFK and PHL will be a tricky part.... I think SA)">AA/US will be able to finally compete with SA)">UA in EWR and SA)">DL at JFK/LGA but it will take time and lots of good planning to make it work so that JFK can continue to be the oneworld gateway and the strong and more profitable domestic routes and PHL can be the gateway to the more niche routes for both international and domestic.

Now
DCA, BOS, LGA will be strong focus cities.

ORD will have a change to better position itself to compete
DFW will be the mega hub and HDQ

I'm not totally opposed to the merger but I do believe that the numbers that US are presenting just don't add up in my head.... but that's just me.....

[Edited 2012-04-22 11:26:19]

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-22 11:28:31 and read 8038 times.

I don't think CLT will loose any European routes, they preform really well,

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-04-22 11:29:32 and read 8041 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 104):
Are you kidding me, CLT will stay as a hub

  I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? Did you not read the post that you quoted from me where I said:

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 103):
There's no question really that CLT would remain an important hub in the network

The 'Preview The Post' button is there for a reason, double check what you're posting before publishing it to the thread.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-04-22 11:31:23 and read 8021 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 107):

Oops my bad, I clicked on the wrong user, sorry about that

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-22 11:54:57 and read 7946 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 99):
Perhaps concentrate on AA-QF Terminal 4 which has underutilized mainline gates.

I wonder what will happen to the timber-and-drywall, rat infested American Eagle terminal east of LAX Terminal 8?

Keep the infrastructure? Send the rats to another terminal.  

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: msp747
Posted 2012-04-22 12:50:19 and read 7809 times.

Quoting PHXA340 (Reply 94):
Demote PHX in favor of LAX, but don't lose it altogether.

Where do you propose the new AA funnels west coast and mountain west traffic through ? LAX is out of gates.

I think this is a point that people are missing, ignoring, or overlooking when they say Phoenix will be dropped as a hub. I mean how much room does LAX really have for growth? It seems like they are pretty close to being maxed out there. Even if they find some room for extra gates, wouldn't they also be losing some by moving out of terminal 1? DFW is too far east to work for a number of west coast/mountain west cities to be served profitably. Are they just going to abandon all these routes and cities? I'm not saying that LAX won't grow and PHX wouldn't see some right-sizing in this deal, but I don't see how eliminating it as a hub makes sense.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: laca773
Posted 2012-04-22 13:05:36 and read 7779 times.

Quoting RyeFly (Reply 92):

On a side note since I fly on the route often...If they do merge it will be nice to get on something better then a junky 737-400 or erj from CLT to MIA. The route would probably be upgraded to A321 or 757 with the occasional widebody for repositioning.

Those 734s won't be around for too much longer. They are being replaced with A319/A320/A321s.

Quoting PHXA340 (Reply 94):
Where do you propose the new SA)">AA funnels west coast and mountain west traffic through ? LAX is out of gates.

How does PHX do so poorly? Do their hub flights to ORD, MSP, EWR, JFK, BOS,....go out with full loads because of basement price low fares? I think I'm missing something here.

Quoting caliboy78 (Reply 105):
LAX is in the process of spending $20 million in renewing the Eagle terminal to make it bigger and more comfortable for the customers as well as revising the look of T-4..... Also as all of us know SA)">AA will be receiving 4 preferred gates from TBIT when they open the west side of TBIT sometime in 2013...... SA)">AA has plans to realign the gates in T-4 and will gain 1 or 2 additional gates in the process if not more therefore allowing SA)">AA to grow.... I know and we all know LAX will grow.... Will it be 300+ flights a day? No...... Will SA)">AA grow to be bigger than SA)">UA or SA)">DL? I strongly believe so....... Will SA)">AA/US merger cause PHX to close? Absolutely not..... However I strongly believe PHX will be just as LAS was when SA)">HP/US merged another focus city....

I didn't know LAX was going to invest in a AE terminal or concourse. Where will this be?
Concerning LAX, does SA)">AA ever have to use remote gates if there are delayed flights in the T4 concourse? It seems T4 is at capacity most of the day and evening.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-22 13:21:00 and read 7721 times.

Quoting laca773 (Reply 111):
I didn't know LAX was going to invest in a AE terminal or concourse. Where will this be?

Also, will it be a ten-minute, ultra-slow-speed bus ride (away from terminal 4) be replaced? Will the far less than-top tier concessions in the AE terminal be replaced? Will the ultra ugly remote AE gates (A to D if I recall) that have the look and feel of temporary school classrooms also be replaced (see the big brown rat run underneath   )

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: AAIL86
Posted 2012-04-22 13:25:05 and read 7734 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 106):
I don't think CLT will loose any European routes, they preform really well,

MUC-CLT will certainly be toast. CLT-FCO could be on the bubble as well. Otherwise, I generally agree - can't see a complete drawdown of CLT's European network as some seem to think.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
) CLT will get a haircut similar to what Delta did to MSP. They may hang onto a London and Paris flight, but most passengers will be routed through PHL and JFK to Europe.

Whats the point of a merger if AA/US doesn't attempt to compete in the SE? I see CLT remaining mostly as is. It has a far superior terminal, lower costs and a fraction of the ATC trouble PHL has. So I don't buy the notion that everything international at CLT would be shifted to JFK/PHL/MIA.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
MIA has two things going against it, high emplanement costs per passenger (highest in the Country?) and notorious Customs and Immigration processing.

Well, the customs experience at MIA should dramatically improve when the new facility opens early next year. That, combined with the excellent new terminal AA has there, should ensure that MIA remains the preeminent gateway to Latin America.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: caliboy78
Posted 2012-04-22 13:45:37 and read 7638 times.

Quoting msp747 (Reply 110):
I didn't know LAX was going to invest in a AE terminal or concourse. Where will this be?
Concerning LAX, does SA)">AA ever have to use remote gates if there are delayed flights in the T4 concourse? It seems T4 is at capacity most of the day and evening.

The eagle terminal will stay where it is right now.... the investment is to try to make it bigger and more confortable for the passengers and a bit better... I really don't know the details in how many more gates / spaces or growth... all I know is that we are investing $20 mil in eagle to make it a better place for people..... T-4 is also getting new restaurants / concessions and also a bit of a face lift..... AA relocated first class check in and added a self check in area and many more little projects to come to make LAX a much better place for people.....

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 112):
Also, will it be a ten-minute, ultra-slow-speed bus ride (away from terminal 4) be replaced? Will the far less than-top tier concessions in the AE terminal be replaced? Will the ultra ugly remote AE gates (A to D if I recall) that have the look and feel of temporary school classrooms also be replaced (see the big brown rat run underneath )

The bus ride cannot change because of the speed limits on the airfield... max 20mph or get a ticket and go fight it in court...... I think the concessions will be upgraded but I know that a restaurant or seat down and eat place will not take place due to space... Maybe better choices or snacking will be placed....

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-22 17:02:37 and read 7332 times.

Quoting laca773 (Reply 111):
How does PHX do so poorly? Do their hub flights to ORD, MSP, EWR, JFK, BOS,....go out with full loads because of basement price low fares? I think I'm missing something here.

It doesn't do poorly. That is pure conjecture on the part of A.netters.

It might not be the highest-yielding US hub - in fact, it may have the lowest - but that doesn't make it a bad hub. Every airline will indeed have a lowest performer.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-04-22 20:13:19 and read 7068 times.

Ill go ahead and give my take on it (listed in order from hubs I see changing the least to the most):

DFW: Stays primarily the same, however I could see a couple a 330s making there way to DFW. There are a couple of routes from DFW that are between a 777 and 763 (EZE, MAD, and FRA). I would like to see some expansion from to Central America from DFW. With the smaller planes (like the E190) it could be possible. However, Im not holding my breath for that last one. However, I see DFW changing the least out of this merger.

MIA: This is another one I dont really see changing much out of this merger. As with DFW, I could see a couple of 330s making their way down there. MIA-SCL/BCN would be good candidates. I also see CLT-GIG making its way down there assuming it is permitted.

ORD: With US' smaller planes, they would be perfect for a lot of ORD-Midwestern/Deep South routes. This will allow expansion to cities that are too large for an ERJ and too small for a 738. I also think we can see some new routes in the South where ORD is lacking. Overall I dont see ORD changing dramatically either.

PHL/JFK: I really dont get the argument that PHL is going to somehow suffer out of this. Not to say that PHL wont lose two to four Europe routes to JFK, but AA/US need a hub to counter EWR in the Northeast and JFK cannot do that. PHL connects with every small, midsized, and major city in the Northeast and the leaders of the combined airline would have to be stupid to let that go. Below is how I would see it divided up:

Routes that would stay at PHL: AMS, FRA, BRU, BCN, DUB, MAD, LHR, MAN, CDG, FCO, TLV (PHL-TLV is still a large market and there is no competition there).

Routes that would be moved to JFK: MUC, ATH, GLA, LIS, VCE

Granted, Im a little unsure about AMS, DUB, MUC, FRA. I dont know if its better to keep them in PHL where there is still a decent market but less competition or move them to JFK where AA currently does not serve them.

CLT: I see CLT losing no domestic destinations. As its been pointed out many times, only CLT and ATL can effectively serve the southeast (DFW and IAH are too far west and IAD is too far north). As such it will be needed to feed those markets. What I think will change is the international service from CLT. Below is how I would see it play out:

CLT-Europe: I see CLT-LHR as two daily with one 777 and one 767. The 777 may be operated by BA. I see CLT-FRA being daily with a 330 or 767. I see CLT-CDG being a daily 757 and CLT-MAD being a seasonal 767. CLT-DUB/FCO would be toast. I also doing see LH sticking it out in CLT, but BA may replace them.

CLT-Caribbean: I see CLT only keeping the majors (SJU, MBJ, PUJ, AUA, GCM, CUN, STT, NAS). I see all others being shifted to MIA or simply dropped. I think CLT-GIG is also going to be history.

PHX: I see PHX keeping service to all domestic destinations, but with only 2 connecting banks to the East Coast. PHX will still be a good connector to destinations in the Southwest, Mountain West, and West Coast. The focus should be on using PHX as such. I see PHX being similar in size and function for US/AA as SLC is for DL. The BA flight will remain and be daily.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2012-04-22 21:09:53 and read 6913 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 116):
I see PHX being similar in size and function for US/AA as SLC is for DL. The BA flight will remain and be daily.



Does anybody know what the total flight count is for DL at SLC? PHX for US is at about 190 mainline departures per day and about 100 express departures. On Flex-up days, that climbs to 225 mainline departures and about 120 express.

I am just curious for the sake of comparison.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-04-22 21:59:38 and read 6823 times.

Quoting United777ORD (Reply 25):
AA+US Focus CitiesLGADCABOSLAS

Re DCA - surely a combined US and AA will have to divest a hefty number of slots at DCA given that US starts the process with around 50% of total departures and AA/AE add around 50 more departures per day to the schedule? Wouldn't it also make more sense for US to move SAN-DCA to LAX-DCA is a merger was to go ahead?

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-22 22:03:39 and read 6806 times.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 118):
Re DCA - surely a combined US and AA will have to divest a hefty number of slots at DCA given that US starts the process with around 50% of total departures and AA/AE add around 50 more departures per day to the schedule? Wouldn't it also make more sense for US to move SAN-DCA to LAX-DCA is a merger was to go ahead?

Why...since the airline would inherit the already-existing AA DCA-LAX?

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Sydscott
Posted 2012-04-22 23:14:51 and read 6729 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 119):
Why...since the airline would inherit the already-existing AA DCA-LAX?

SAN isn't a hub. LAX is. Having multiple dailies from one focus city to another hub/focus city could be a better option network wise for the combined carrier. AA currently has 3 x 738's between LAX and IAD, if you combined that into 2 757's from DCA at decent times, along with a codeshare on the AS service, that gives AA/US the option of withdrawing from IAD-LAX altogether and replacing it with hub to hub service.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: United777ORD
Posted 2012-04-22 23:22:17 and read 6752 times.

AA+US Hubs:
DFW- Largest hub with 750+ daily flights
CLT- 2nd largest hub with 475 flights
ORD- 3rd largest hub with 450 flights
PHL- 4th largest hub with 425 flights
MIA- 5th largest hub with 325 flights
PHX- 6th largest hub with 225 flights
LAX- 7th largest hub with 200 flights
JFK- 8th largest hub with 150 flights

AA+US Focus Cities
LGA
DCA
BOS
LAS
STL

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-22 23:41:34 and read 6725 times.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 120):
SAN isn't a hub. LAX is. Having multiple dailies from one focus city to another hub/focus city could be a better option network wise for the combined carrier. AA currently has 3 x 738's between LAX and IAD, if you combined that into 2 757's from DCA at decent times, along with a codeshare on the AS service, that gives AA/US the option of withdrawing from IAD-LAX altogether and replacing it with hub to hub service.

And lose the defense an aerospace traffic that prefers Dulles? I don't think so. Dulles itself serves a very important not easily replaced by Reagan.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-04-22 23:48:01 and read 6684 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 116):
Routes that would be moved to JFK: MUC, ATH, GLA, LIS, VCE

Granted, Im a little unsure about AMS, DUB, MUC, FRA. I dont know if its better to keep them in PHL where there is still a decent market but less competition or move them to JFK where AA

Is this even possible? Not only would these flights be moved to JFK during the peak travel time of the day when additional flight operations at JFK are restricted, but the success of the routes out of PHL relied on a lot of connecting traffic that JFK does not have.

I realize that the O&D out of JFK is larger than PHL, but I do not think it makes up the loss of the connecting traffic that is gained out of PHL. Besides, if AA thought the routes could work out of JFK with the local O&D and limited connections they have today, then they probably would be flying these routes today (or would have at least attempted them at some point previously).


Quoting United777ORD (Reply 121):

AA+US Hubs:
DFW- Largest hub with 750+ daily flights
CLT- 2nd largest hub with 475 flights
ORD- 3rd largest hub with 450 flights
PHL- 4th largest hub with 425 flights
MIA- 5th largest hub with 325 flights
PHX- 6th largest hub with 225 flights
LAX- 7th largest hub with 200 flights
JFK- 8th largest hub with 150 flights

Is this mainline only? The PHX hub looks a little light.

Quoting United777ORD (Reply 121):
AA+US Focus Cities
LGA
DCA
BOS
LAS
STL

LAS has not been a focus city for US for a while now. LAS only sees flights to the US hubs. I would also say that STL lost that title with AA.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2012-04-23 04:54:42 and read 6476 times.

Quoting Nutsaboutplanes (Reply 117):



Does anybody know what the total flight count is for DL at SLC? PHX for US is at about 190 mainline departures per day and about 100 express departures. On Flex-up days, that climbs to 225 mainline departures and about 120 express.

I am just curious for the sake of comparison.

I wanna say between 260-280 daily flights....I dont think they have reached 300 dailies yet but could be close to it.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-04-23 05:16:06 and read 6416 times.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Of course he said this, he wanted the support of the AA unions. Parker is not an idiot, if he's willing to lay his cards down already in regards to US intentions, then he is committed to the process, where ever that will go. I guess we'll see.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: washingtonian
Posted 2012-04-23 06:59:42 and read 6203 times.

Will be very interesting to see what happens at DCA. US already is the dominant carrier here, but when you throw in AA's multiple daily frequencies to ORD/MIA/DFW (and more to places like STL, RDU, and others) they will REALLY have dominance. I'd love to see some routes upgauged; I've never understood why US can't operate larger aircraft on some routes to key business cities from DCA. American will do very well here.

Quoting commavia (Reply 24):
JFK and PHL can coexist together - it need not be one or the other.

Yeah, but they will not work as well as EWR and IAD. It will be very interesting to see if routes like JFK-FCO can survive alongside PHL-FCO. Obviously, JFK-LHR/CDG/MAD/ZRH/NRT/GRU/GIG/EZE are not going anywhere...But some of the secondary international flights out of JFK might not make sense anymore.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
CLT simply will not win with this merge with regards to international flights. No current US hub will. Because what works from CLT, PHX and PHL works better from MIA, LAX and JFK, respectively.

True, and it says a lot about US. The same could not have been said about the DL-NW or UA-CO mergers...

Ultimately, the most important factor that will determine how well the merger goes is whether AA will become more like US or US will become more like AA. Let's hope for the latter.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: United777ORD
Posted 2012-04-23 07:05:22 and read 6222 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 123):
Is this mainline only? The PHX hub looks a little light.

Yes, this includes mainline at PHX. Currently, US flies 274 daily flights out of PHX. After the merger, some of those flights are going to be transferred to LAX and possibly DFW.

[Edited 2012-04-23 07:06:48]

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2012-04-23 07:37:06 and read 6126 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 82):
I don't really know why US is going for this merger if 2 of their 3 key hubs are going to be shut down, according to all of you. If CLT and PHX meant anything to DP he wouldn't be doing this.

I don't belive that anyone on this forum has suggested that 2 of the key US hubs would be shut down.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-23 08:11:07 and read 6028 times.

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 126):
True, and it says a lot about US. The same could not have been said about the DL-NW or UA-CO mergers...

JFK can't handle all the international traffic at PHL. The O&D might be stronger but JFK has much less feed from the network. As a slot-restricted airport JFK is best utilized as serving the needs of greater NYC, not as a multipurpose connecting hub a la EWR or PHL. And with all respect to NYC, the rest of the country put together is still more business pax than one city, and you can't funnel those all through JFK. If the O&D can support flights to X number of European cities, so be it, but it will always be LHR-heavy.

Subtract slot restrictions, and then maybe JFK has a case to compete with EWR and PHL.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: laca773
Posted 2012-04-23 11:48:13 and read 5720 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 115):
doesn't do poorly. That is pure conjecture on the part of A.netters.

It might not be the highest-yielding US hub - in fact, it may have the lowest - but that doesn't make it a bad hub. Every airline will indeed have a lowest performer.

That's what I thought, HPRamper.

Quoting United777ORD (Reply 127):
Yes, this includes mainline at PHX. Currently, US flies 274 daily flights out of PHX. After the merger, some of those flights are going to be transferred to LAX and possibly DFW.

Where in the world would these so called flights being transferred to LAX fly from? Any suggestions, United777ORD? Remote gates? Old Imperial terminal?
Why transfer them to DFW? That's redundancy and is a waste of money.

If this does happen, they really need to balance out who decides what between US & AA. AA's history with mergers is poor at best. Air Cal, Reno Air and TWA...! There's nothing left. I'm sure those at US are well aware of this.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-23 11:50:02 and read 5729 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 116):
The BA flight will remain and be daily.

Here's the upside I see for PHX: If AA/US does go to OW, we might see more expansion from BA to PHX (maybe an A-380 flight, if such warrants?)

As I mentioned previously in other threads, the daily Speedbird is quite popular here in the valley. Sometimes it's overbooked.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: apodino
Posted 2012-04-23 12:01:38 and read 5686 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
(in BOS I suspect AA would move to the current USAirways side of B).

Funny you mention this....if this merger actually happened, it would actually allow massport to kill a number of birds with one stone. One is that AA and US would be able to combine on either side of B. Secondly, they could then move UA into which ever side of B that the combined US/AA gives up, without having to build the new project at B, and allowing Massport to save a ton of money in the process. (Maybe they could give the MBTA a donation, I hear they are hurting for money)


I have stated this in other threads, but here is the way I see this shaking out in a merger.

BOS - Though its no longer a hub or focus city for either carrier, there is very little overlap between the two airlines, and I suspect that most of the current schedule is maintained. They would easily become number 2 in BOS, though still far behind B6.

NYC - Some of the PHL transatlantics will be moved to JFK. The question becomes then, as strong an O and D market as NYC is, how many of the US cities can be sustained on O and D at JFK, or do they have to add connecting flights to JFK to allow for some of those cities to work?

PHL - Domestic flights will remain at similar levels, the question is on the Int'l side. Do they want to ride O and D cotails from JFK and give up some of the feeder traffic for Europe, or are they going to maintain a presence at PHL where they can feed some European Destinations.

DCA - I suspect that they will have to divest a couple of slots here, but what I see is for AA and UA to swap places, putting AA in the middle Pier, and UA on the Right pier. With SAN, LAX, PHX, and LAS, they have quite a few beyond perimeter slots to play with, which will give them some serious muscle in DCA.

CLT - This is the weakest O and D market post merger, but it is a great N-S hub on the east coast. The question becomes then, do they lose some Latin America to MIA, or keep it at CLT. One other thing to note is the London flight is the last LGW flight on either carrier (Actually the last LGW flight remaining on any US carrier) and you wonder if they will maintain that flight, or grab an LHR slot from somewhere and move it to CLT.

MIA - It's a very important money making hub for serving Latin America, that much is clear. It doesn't seem to be good for much more than that. I don't see many changes here.

ORD - AA can easily absorb the US operation in T3 with no problem. What this likely means short term is for UA to pick up a couple of more RJ gates in F8 and F10, and also for DL to maybe gain a gate as well. I don't really expect much to change in ORD, but this is a station to keep an eye on the regionals at.

DFW - It's AA's most important hub, and on the surface it wouldn't appear to have many changes. One thing to note though is that some of the southern california destinations other than LAX and SAN are actually better served from PHX than DFW (Think PSP, ONT, BUR, SNA, FAT, etc) and the question becomes, will they maintain frequencies to all those cities from both places, or just rely on PHX. The fact that AA recently dropped DFW-BUR service should provide a clue on that front.

PHX - On paper, LAX is a much stronger O and D airport than PHX. That being said, given the space constraints at LAX there is very little more they can do with frequency and connecting traffic, which means that most of the traffic that is currently routed through PHX would not be well absorbed by LAX. For this reason, while I may see a little reduction at PHX, I don't see a lot of reduction. Also noted that of all the hubs, PHX has the least exposure to 50 seat RJ's.

LAX - Will remain pretty status quo for now. The key thing with LAX depends on how big a player in Asia they want to be. Obviously a US merger doesn't help that. But with 787's coming online soon, that could change.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: apodino
Posted 2012-04-23 12:15:15 and read 5606 times.

Also not to be forgotten in a merger is the regional lift. Currently American has Eagle, and I believe a limited amount of lift on Chautaqua for regional feed. US has SkyWest, Air Wisconsin, PSA, Piedmont, Republic, Mesa, Trans States, and Chautauqua for its lift. The key thing in this is what happens to Eagle in the bankruptcy. Given the red ink that has appeared on some companies balance sheets lately that have merged, you wonder if anyone would even buy them. Also, I want to break this down even further by capacity.

Dash 8 props

Piedmont
Mesa (Or do they still have any)

50 Seat RJ's (CRJ2, ERJ)

Air Wisconsin
SkyWest
PSA
Eagle
Trans States
Chautauqua

70+ Seat RJ's (CRJ7, CRJ9, EMB 170-175)

Republic
Mesa
PSA
Eagle


If they cannot find a buyer for Eagle, and end up merging, I suspect they may just combine both PSA and Eagle. The one problem with this is PSA is a CRJ operator, and Eagle is mainly an ERJ operator. But if US is looking to shed some 50 seat lift, this would be the easiest way to do it. SkyWest just signed a contract with US and they are not going anywhere, and I would not be surprised to see them at LAX in the near future (Which interestingly could make them the biggest carrier at LAX in a weird way in terms of departures), but I don't know the language of their other contracts. Air Wisconsin is secure until 2015, but given the state of the 50 seaters in this country, and the ultra conservative management style of CEO Jim Rankin, I don't see this contract being extended, and Air Wisconsin may even be out of business altogether after than (Save for the ground handling business). Trans States I believe is an At Risk contract so no telling what is happening with Hulas there. And I don't know BB's feelings on the 50 seaters at Chautauqua, or what happens, there, it seems like RAH's future is with the Republic and Shuttle America certificates, and there is no way that flying is going anywhere unless there is some sort of scope issue.

The key thing here is scope. If exisiting AA scope is maintained, then who knows. But if scope is loosened, it will be good for both SkyWest and RAH going forward, but it will likely mean the demise of Air Wisconsin.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-04-23 12:17:06 and read 5610 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 132):
DFW - It's AA's most important hub, and on the surface it wouldn't appear to have many changes. One thing to note though is that some of the southern california destinations other than LAX and SAN are actually better served from PHX than DFW (Think PSP, ONT, BUR, SNA, FAT, etc) and the question becomes, will they maintain frequencies to all those cities from both places, or just rely on PHX. The fact that AA recently dropped DFW-BUR service should provide a clue on that front.

DFW-SNA is an absolutely huge local market (think 1200 passengers a day). Nothing will happen to it.

DFW-ONT is another market that has enough O&D to make it work regardless.

DFW-PSP is not huge, but enough to warrant a daily flight given the connections.

DFW-FAT is the only one I could see losing to PHX.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-23 12:19:14 and read 5594 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 132):
PHL - Domestic flights will remain at similar levels, the question is on the Int'l side. Do they want to ride O and D cotails from JFK and give up some of the feeder traffic for Europe, or are they going to maintain a presence at PHL where they can feed some European Destinations.

Something to look at here is how much much international feed US gets from the NYC area connecting at PHL. I would suspect that most of the high-yielding business traffic in the NYC area is simply going to fly nonstop on another carrier rather than connecting on US through PHL. If this is the case, PHL would be better off keeping its own share of international flights and right-sizing JFK to the demand present.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: RyeFly
Posted 2012-04-23 13:05:47 and read 5486 times.

CLT-LGW would likely be replaced with CLT-LHR, using the RDU-LHR slot using A333 or 777 aircraft. It wouldn't surprise me to see Delta or British Airways add RDU-LHR if AA moved this flight to CLT because it's a heavily subsidized flight.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-23 13:20:57 and read 5415 times.

Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2012-04-23 13:36:06 and read 5358 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 137):
Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

Maybe because neither US or AA's livery really inspires a "wow" out of someone's mind. I see that exposed metal and the only positive word that comes to mind is "nostalgic".

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: apodino
Posted 2012-04-23 13:38:54 and read 5345 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 137):
Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

Actually it has...check other threads for that.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 134):

DFW-SNA is an absolutely huge local market (think 1200 passengers a day). Nothing will happen to it.

DFW-ONT is another market that has enough O&D to make it work regardless.

DFW-PSP is not huge, but enough to warrant a daily flight given the connections.

DFW-FAT is the only one I could see losing to PHX.

SNA is one I thought of, but I agree that that flight is going nowhere. The one other interesting thing to note is by the time they go to an SOC, the Wright amendment is also gone, and ONT is a market I could see getting service from DAL. The problem with ONT has been well documented on this site. I am not convinced that there is enough O and D to make DFW work in addition to PHX. BUR arguably serves a larger catchment area than ONT, and AA could not make BUR work.

This is going to be the key question regarding DFW going forward, is how does the end of Wright affect the way AA operates at DFW as they now compete with WN on many other markets all of a sudden? (And NK to a much smaller extent) That will determine how DFW and PHX shake out after the merger.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-23 14:51:51 and read 5172 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 139):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 137):
Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

Actually it has...check other threads for that.

You're absolutely right.

I found this at What Would A Merged AA And US Look Like? (by cjpmaestro Nov 20 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHXA340
Posted 2012-04-23 15:01:51 and read 5134 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 131):
BA to PHX (maybe an A-380 flight, if such warrants?)

That would be awesome but BA has a TON of cities they would send a A380 to before PHX. I think that CLT, DFW, DCA , LAX, MIA are all perfectly safe. I see right sizing PHL , PHX to serve the particular geographic needs.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-04-23 15:04:33 and read 5123 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 139):
I am not convinced that there is enough O and D to make DFW work in addition to PHX.

DFW-ONT is between 350 and 400 PDEW. Its large enough.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2012-04-23 15:55:53 and read 5037 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 137):
I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

It has been and they've all been shot down as abominations, juvenile, or downright ugly.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 140):
I found this at What Would A Merged AA And US Look Like?

Proves my point.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 138):
I see that exposed metal and the only positive word that comes to mind is "nostalgic".

And yet its a livery that's recognized globally, even countries where AA doesn't fly. Can't say that about US.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-23 17:50:20 and read 4855 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 132):
PHX has the least exposure to 50 seat RJ's.

With many airlines drawing down the use of these RJs, I highly doubt this new airline would increase them into PHX. I expect to see more Airbus flying, especially when AA takes delivery of those A320neos.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 140):
I found this at What Would A Merged AA And US Look Like? (by cjpmaestro Nov 20 2011 in Civil Aviation)

I hope they go with this. I love the US livery and the American name and the US flag cap it all off. Nice and modern.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2012-04-23 18:13:05 and read 4797 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 143):
they've all been shot down as abominations, juvenile, or downright ugly.

Same in the pre-merger CO / UA threads. Everyone tried their hands at it -- advertising professionals, beginning photoshoppers, etc. and it seemed to eventually breed unity between the competing camps.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: caliboy78
Posted 2012-04-23 18:44:37 and read 4714 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 145):

I really like this one for some weird reason.... I also think that the eagle should be bigger like the one above it.....   

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: chepos
Posted 2012-04-23 19:05:53 and read 4659 times.

The first one on the 772 is awsome, not to rain on anyones parade but I heard the creditors comittee sided with AA. So does this not mean all this craziness would come to an end?

Regards,

Chepods

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2012-04-23 19:12:27 and read 4633 times.

Quoting chepos (Reply 147):
not to rain on anyones parade but I heard the creditors comittee sided with AA. So does this not mean all this craziness would come to an end?

Anybody with common business sense (i.e. the remaining six creditors) will side with AA. This union takeover is probably not going to happen.

Will US and AA merge? I think it has a very realistic chance of happening. But it will happen after AA emerges from bankruptcy with a leaner, more efficient workforce; and with AA being the one in charge.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: apodino
Posted 2012-04-23 19:43:05 and read 4544 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 144):


With many airlines drawing down the use of these RJs, I highly doubt this new airline would increase them into PHX. I expect to see more Airbus flying, especially when AA takes delivery of those A320neos.

Which if you read my post correctly my point was because PHX has the least exposure to 50 seat flying, it is not likely to be pulled down as much as people on there might think. The reason that MEM, CVG, and soon to be CLE, failed as hubs is because they relied too much on 50 seat traffic. PHX doesn't have that problem.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2012-04-23 20:05:19 and read 4496 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 145):
Same in the pre-merger CO / UA threads. Everyone tried their hands at it -- advertising professionals, beginning photoshoppers, etc. and it seemed to eventually breed unity between the competing camps.

Maybe I'm just too hard to please, but none of those say "Professional" or "Global Carrier". The emphasis on swooshing lines seems like an appeal to the nickelodeon audience.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Boeing773ER
Posted 2012-04-23 20:36:45 and read 4454 times.

Can someone please tell me why the new AA would give up PHL/CLT/PHX/DCA? I've read numerous times from all of the arm chair CEO's in this thread that these hubs are all seriously going to be reduced to little focus cities. I've heard claims on each US hub.

I don't know why they would bother to do that, and trade it in for loads of completion. If they would focus on LAX/ORD/DFW/MIA/JFK they face some sort of comp in each of those hub.

LAX: A pretty much split comp, whoever is priced lowest wins.
ORD: Facing the new giant that is UA; and then the "LLC" giant WN at MDW.
DFW: Facing WN somewhat; not horrible. Until the Wright Amendment becomes useless in two years.
MIA: Comp down the road at FLL namely NK, JB, and WN. Although, they are doing well in South America.
JFK: Same thing as LAX.

Now at PHL/CLT/PHX/DCA let's see who they are facing there

PHL: Minimal WN comp, has good amount of space for them selves.
CLT: No major comp; not many LCCs; has a good amount of space for them selves. Plus $1 Billion in expansions starting soon
PHX: A little more WN comp; but still controls about 50% of the market
DCA: Just got the slot swap completed, I believe this is more of a hub than just a focus city. Most of the airport is running around US. Doesn't face much comp, because UA at IAD and WN at BWI serve different markets.

So someone please explain to me why AA/US would give up a these comp free airports just to face more comp?

But for the future of US/AA hubs I see the following (in order of daily flights)

DFW; Major domestic/international hub and Headquarters. Only growing once merger in complete
CLT: Major Domestic Hub; will have a little trim but just transatlantic flights.
PHL: Major transatlantic hub; having many domestic flights. Growing after merger
MIA: Latin American Hub; growing with more domestic and more international flights.
PHX: Receiving cuts; may switch back and forth with ORD for this spot.
ORD: International hub; heavy O/D. Growth after merger; granted being able to use 190's or smaller
DCA: Only growing with what they can; adding more flights to AA hubs.
JFK: Heavy O/D; trans-atlantic hub. Major LHR flights. International growth, domestic cut back being switched to PHL
LAX: Heavy O/D; trans-Pacific hub. It may grow, or not not sure.

Focus Cities;
BOS
LGA
LAS

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-23 21:03:10 and read 4397 times.

Even if US can't pull this off, AA is not in a very enviable position as far as union relations go. If the contracts are indeed thrown out, things could get downright toxic.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-04-23 21:27:36 and read 4340 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 152):
Even if US can't pull this off, AA is not in a very enviable position as far as union relations go. If the contracts are indeed thrown out, things could get downright toxic.

Which is what NWAROOSTER appears to have been saying this whole discussion which has been going on for ages. (correct me if I'm wrong)

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-04-23 21:39:27 and read 4313 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 153):
Which is what NWAROOSTER appears to have been saying this whole discussion which has been going on for ages. (correct me if I'm wrong)

No, that's exactly right. This was a great move on Parker's part whether or not he can pull the deal off. If he gets it approved, US wins. If not, the AA union situation will be far worse than the one currently going on at US, and AA loses.

Topic: RE: US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2012-04-23 22:58:10 and read 4261 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 152):
If the contracts are indeed thrown out, things could get downright toxic.

 

So in other words, another regular day at AA.

Quoting Boeing773ER (Reply 151):
Can someone please tell me why the new AA would give up PHL/CLT/PHX/DCA?

The sensible posts here never suggested that pmAA would give them up. However, there are those insane posts claiming that JFK & LAX would lose out to PHL and PHX. We all know that some rationalization of routes will occur, and any strengthening of cornerstone hubs will have to be a priority for AA whether a merger occurs or not.


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