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Topic: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: SWALUV
Posted 2012-05-07 17:30:00 and read 10838 times.

Hi,
The 767 is and was a very popular aircraft for many airlines. the 767 in total recieved 1,090 order for the 762, 763, and 764.
But with the low orders for the 767-400 will this be the last varrient of the 767? Also the A330, which is a direct competitor to the 767, has posted orders for 1,189 Aircraft, but has only a few aircraft ordered for almost half of the first year of 2012. Other Airlines like HA have ordered and are ordering A330 to phase out there ever aging fleet of 767, so will we see other airlines, like AA, US, DL, maybe UA (fingers crossed) ordering A330 to phase out there aging 767 fleet?

- Has the A330 peaked at its highest glory?
- Will this be the last 767 version ever built?
- How much longer will the A330 be in production?
- What is the future of the major 767 fleet like AA, DL, UA?
- Will we see a NEO version of the A330?
- Will we see a MAX version of the 767 or will Boeing go back to the drawing board and redo the 767?

Sorry for all the questions.

PS: Thanks  

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-07 17:35:11 and read 10871 times.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Has the A330 peaked at its highest glory?

It's probably on the peak side of the bell curve.



Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will this be the last 767 version ever built?

The 767 is getting a new model - the 767-2C, which will be used as the foundation for the KC-46 tanker.


Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- How much longer will the A330 be in production?

I imagine decades as a freighter.



Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- What is the future of the major 767 fleet like AA, DL, UA?

Replaced with 787-8s.



Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a NEO version of the A330?


I do not believe so.



Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a MAX version of the 767 or will Boeing go back to the drawing board and redo the 767?

I do not believe we will see a MAX version of the 767 because the 787 has replaced it in Boeing's model line up.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: eaa3
Posted 2012-05-07 17:43:13 and read 10833 times.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a MAX version of the 767 or will Boeing go back to the drawing board and redo the 767?

You mean like a 787   . The only reason the 767 is still in production is because of military orders. They've been able to get some other orders but the 787 is a really good replacement, although with longer range.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Has the A330 peaked at its highest glory?

I would think so. Airbus chose not to replace the A330 directly but rather to have an aircraft that replaces the A330-300 and B777. By doing this they didn't directly go against the Dreamliner. I guess they have more belief in the larger aircraft market.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a NEO version of the A330?

Although Airbus has hinted at this I doubt it will happen. A new engine option competing against the brand new Dreamliner seems unlikely to me.

Although the A350 will be an incredibly compelling plane Airbus doesn't have a direct competitor with the B787-8 and the A350-800 is considered by many to be less efficent compared to the B787-9. I'm not saying this is true as the A350-800 is not ready. Maybe they can make it just as compelling as the Dreamliner. Airbus execs must spend significant time thinking about the fact that their product line is missing a large chunk.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: American 767
Posted 2012-05-07 17:52:20 and read 10780 times.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
US, DL

DL and US do fly the A330, so does HA. However I don't think that Delta would have any in its fleet if they didn't merger with Northwest. If Delta and Northwest didn't merge, NW, US and HA would be the A330 operators in the United States.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will this be the last 767 version ever built?

As a civilian aircraft, yes. I don't think Boeing will ever receive any more order for the 400ER.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
What is the future of the major 767 fleet like AA, DL, UA?

True, they'll be replaced by the 787-8 but you can expect to see the 767-300ERs as passenger haulers for years to come. I recently flew on a Delta 300ER from JFK to BRU and back, it was fitted with 777 Style interiors and winglets, so they'll still be around for a long time.
AA and US still fly aging 762ERs.

Ben Soriano

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2012-05-07 18:05:58 and read 10735 times.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
But with the low orders for the 767-400 will this be the last varrient of the 767?

The 764 was primarily designed a niche aircraft to replace the L-1011 and DC-10 fleets of Delta and Continental, respectively. Boeing couldn't afford to lose two important customers to Airbus, and prior to the introduction of the 764, the A332 was the only direct replacement. Boeing initially offered DL/CO the 772ER to replace the widebody trijets, but both rejected it for that purpose since it was "too much plane" for that mission. Boeing then offered them a possible 777-100ER, but both airlines again rejected due to it not being any more efficient than a 772ER. Then the 764ER was born.

While Boeing probably would have liked to sell the 764ER to more customers, that doesn't overshadow its primary mission of being a widebody trijet replacement for DL and CO, regardless of what Airbus fans want you to believe.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: SCL767
Posted 2012-05-08 01:12:35 and read 10225 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
What is the future of the major 767 fleet like AA, DL, UA?

True, they'll be replaced by the 787-8 but you can expect to see the 767-300ERs as passenger haulers for years to come.

Very true; for example LAN will receive 9 brand new B-767-316ERs this year alone as part of LAN's fleet renewal and expansion plans. LAN will also receive 4 new B-767-316ERs during 2013. It's interesting to note that LAN will incorporate brand new B-767-316ERs and B-787-8s into the fleet simultaneously!

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: ba319-131
Posted 2012-05-08 01:17:37 and read 10197 times.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
will we see other airlines, like AA, US, DL, maybe UA (fingers crossed) ordering A330 to phase out there aging 767 fleet?

- Not a chance.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- What is the future of the major 767 fleet like AA, DL, UA?

- Replaced by 787's.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a MAX version of the 767 or will Boeing go back to the drawing board and redo the 767?

- Nope.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: UALWN
Posted 2012-05-08 07:13:35 and read 9525 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 4):
While Boeing probably would have liked to sell the 764ER to more customers, that doesn't overshadow its primary mission of being a widebody trijet replacement for DL and CO, regardless of what Airbus fans want you to believe.

The 764 sold a grand total of 37 units. That's a failure, no matter how you want to spin, and it didn't begin to cover the development costs. It's particularly a failure when compared to the A332 (572 orders up to now). I remember very well the heated discussions in the aviation forums of the late 90s about which airplane would prevail...

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: HAL9k
Posted 2012-05-08 07:22:00 and read 9481 times.

Here comes my thoughts:

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Has the A330 peaked at its highest glory?

- Probably yes. The delays with the 787-8 were the fortune of the A330-200.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- How much longer will the A330 be in production?

- First of all I would say that the 767 and the A330 are two quite different aircraft as they come out at a decade from each other, so while the 767 is almost at the end, the A330 can still sell the actual models to existing customers and charter airlines. The cargo version still has to break into the market. I suppose that a passenger-to-freighter conversion is more likely than production of brand new 332F.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
- Will we see a NEO version of the A330?

- Airbus initially declined this idea of... Air AsiaX (??)... but later come up on it again. The reasons that makes sense in souch a project is that the A330-200 is a smaller machine and cheaper than the A350-800, that on the other side is becoming less and less interesting to many airlines. Many arilines (as european charter ailines) that dont'e use aircraft bigger than the A330/767 would probably prefere the A332 to the A358. the A358 could be interesting to airlines who needs also the larger models (-900 and -1000) to maintain commonality.
While the A350 will use much of the avionic deveoped for the A380, the A330neo could maintain the acual layout still in use for the A320neo.
For the A330-300 the "neo future" is more difficult to see, but it still have a good market as regional aircraft in the east- asia...

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-05-08 07:44:18 and read 9393 times.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 7):
The 764 sold a grand total of 37 units. That's a failure, no matter how you want to spin, and it didn't begin to cover the development costs. It's particularly a failure when compared to the A332 (572 orders up to now). I remember very well the heated discussions in the aviation forums of the late 90s about which airplane would prevail...

True, but one also has to remember that it was a relatively low cost affair. While it was certainly a commercial failure from a sales front, I think that when we take into account the development costs (low, and both benefitted from and perhaps even contributed to other Boeing R&D efforts) in addition to the potential of losing one or both very loyal Boeing customers, it has worked for Boeing.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: American 767
Posted 2012-05-08 07:45:27 and read 9393 times.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 7):
The 764 sold a grand total of 37 units. That's a failure, no matter how you want to spin, and it didn't begin to cover the development costs.

I'm sorry but I disagree with you about that one. I don't think it is a failure because the variant was initially to be sold only to Delta and Continental as a replacement for their L-1011 and DC-10 fleets respectively. Boeing announced to Delta the 400ER back in the late 90s because their main concern was loosing them as a customer, Delta choosing the A330 over the 764ER. And if you look at the cost of development, it is only minimal so it wasn't a big loss for Boeing. Sure Boeing would have loved to win more orders from more customers, I believe that Kenya Airways also considered it at one point but chose the 777 instead. The point is selling it to Delta and Continental was exactly what Boeing was expecting.
If I follow your logic, then the 747SP also is a failure.

Ben Soriano

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-08 08:55:37 and read 9044 times.

Airbus and Boeing both have had a number of "duds" in their narrowbody and widebody product lines. Fortunately, almost all of them being derivatives means that the market failure of specific models is effectively erased by the success of the other models.

The only exception might be the A340-500 and A340-600, but even there, they can piggy-back on the A330s and A340-300s success and they did deliver 129 of them.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-05-08 09:00:22 and read 9008 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
The only exception might be the A340-500 and A340-600, but even there, they can piggy-back on the A330s and A340-300s success and they did deliver 129 of them.

Plus didn't a good bit of knowledge gained go back into the upgraded A330 over time as well? I seem to remember hearing that the A330 has benefitted from some of that.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-08 09:34:53 and read 8828 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
I would like to have a reasonable discussion on the future lives of the types.

Then let us drag this thread back on topic.



Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
For example, a wingleted A333, with a few other enhancements, grows to 6000nm range. Those aircraft will have a passenger duty life for 15 to 20 years.

Such frames could be very welcome in developing markets, both with young carriers wishing to grow and new start-ups. They would have been great for China and India, but their respective governments seem to be ready and willing to support their carriers buying new planes so I expect that growth will be handled by 787s and A350s. These used A330-300s will also be very popular with charter operators to replace aging widebodies.



Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
The A332 will have it tougher due to the cost advantages of the 788/789.

I see the earlier frames moving towards converted freighters (they're perfect to replace DC-10Fs), though they will face competition from converted 767s at the lower end.

The later-builds with their higher MTOW could move towards the charter operators to open up non-stop flights to leisure destinations that currently require a stop en-route. Perhaps we can finally have non-stop from Western Europe to Hawaii or from the Western United States to the Canary Islands.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-08 11:30:30 and read 7339 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
I see the earlier frames moving towards converted freighters

The only 'fault' I see with A330s are there relatively high resale values for P2F conversions. (A classy problem...) I think we'll see quite a few conversions. Hence the investment in a P2F conversion:
http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...me-with-st-aerospace-and-eads-efw/

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
The later-builds with their higher MTOW could move towards the charter operators to open up non-stop flights to leisure destinations that currently require a stop en-route

You have a good point there. The more recent A332s could be... reconfigured to 9 across (a la Air Asia-X) for the charter market and would be an excellent fit. I must admit I had overlooked that possibility. But with the high density seating, I could see a market. But it will take the highest MTOW examples for the type.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
they will face competition from converted 767s at the lower end.

Quite true. I see a long life ahead for the 767 in freight. In particular since FedEx recently adopted the type. They have a history of expanding with conversions. At this point, it is a question of economics between new build 767s and BCFs. However, on the low end of the 767 they will then compete with 757s... ad nauseum.  

Either way, I see A330s and 767s finding a home in the freight markets. We just have seen a pause due to elevated resale values due to the 787 delays. It will take another 2 to 3 years of 787 production before there is a major shift, but I see that shift in A330 and 767 resale values as inevitable. It is a question of when, not if; when it happens, we will see more freight conversions.

Including, I believe, a 77E/772 conversion package. But not yet. That will take a few years of A359 production...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Perhaps we can finally have non-stop from Western Europe to Hawaii or from the Western United States to the Canary Islands.

Due to the high payloads, I do not see a charter A332 to Hawaii. I think we'll have to wait for HA and their A359s. However, the US to the Canary Islands is overdue, IMHO.

MOL also made noise on buying used 763s for TATL. I think only current resale values stopped him. I see the business case. The question is, will be, will FR join other charter operators with 8-across 767s?
Thomas Cook 767 - 8 Across In Coach?! (by SSTsomeday Sep 17 2008 in Civil Aviation)

Charter=low cost flights that are seasonal. Hence 'high packing densities.' I see a bright future for both the A330 and 767 in those markets. Just as 9 and 8 across Y seating, respectively.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: SeJoWa
Posted 2012-05-08 11:32:00 and read 7341 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
Quoting UALWN (Reply 16):You gotta love this site. There is a discussion about the 764, and in about 30 minutes, somebody brings in the 340, for no reason at all, hence turning this into an A vs. B piss contest. Congratulations.
Sad eh?

I would like to have a reasonable discussion on the future lives of the types.

Forsooth, who knows where those corporate groupies' wanderings will lead? =P

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stratacruiser
Posted 2012-05-08 11:36:23 and read 7254 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 10):
Boeing announced to Delta the 400ER back in the late 90s because their main concern was loosing them as a customer, Delta choosing the A330 over the 764ER.

I seem to recall DL shifted some orders from the 777 to 767-400 because they couldn't reach an agreement with their pilots on a 777 wage scale that the airline thought was necessary to make it's routes profitable.

Dave

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2012-05-08 11:37:27 and read 7254 times.

How many orders does HA have left for the A332? I know US still has several A332 left to be delivered, and I believe deliveries will resume in 2013.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-05-08 11:38:09 and read 7218 times.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
However I don't think that Delta would have any in its fleet if they didn't merger with Northwest. If Delta and Northwest didn't merge, NW, US and HA would be the A330 operators in the United States.

Very true. However, I believe DL is very happy with the A330s it acquired via the NW merger. They serve the trans-Atlantic market very well. DL is also updating the interiors to bring them in line with the 764s or 772s, right?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
or example, a wingleted A333, with a few other enhancements, grows to 6000nm range. Those aircraft will have a passenger duty life for 15 to 20 years. The A332 will have it tougher due to the cost advantages of the 788/789. e.g., once KE has 789s, I expect LAS and other distant destinations to go to the 789. Didn't they just launch the longest A332 route to somewhere in Africa from ICN? (I was unable to find the thread.)

The 767 will drift towards shorter routes and freight.

I believe we are past the time for an A330NEO. The reality is, post weight reduction, it wouldn't be competitive with the 789. Hence the A359, -10.

Airbus will decide whether to proceed with enhancements to the A330 during the second half of this year. The idea would be to raise the max take-off weight of the A330-300 by 5t to 240t through the fitting of sharklet wing-tips and other enhancements: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ent-in-second-half-of-2012-367981/

I honestly don't know what to think of this idea. There are many airlines that will probably love it, especially in Asia, but I feel this might cannibalize sales of the A359 to some extent (i.e., when a carrier does need the capacity but does not need the range).

On a related note, I don't know what Airbus will do to compete in the market between the A321 and the A358. The A332 seems destined to disappear once the A358 enters service whether or not a theoretical A333ER is effectively launched. Perhaps I should ask how big the market for two-aisle, twin-engined planes seating more than 200 but less than 280 passengers is. I would think it is quite big, but then again, maybe Airbus is not interested in offering a product in this segment.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2012-05-08 11:42:01 and read 7167 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 20):
Very true. However, I believe DL is very happy with the A330s it acquired via the NW merger. They serve the trans-Atlantic market very well. DL is also updating the interiors to bring them in line with the 764s or 772s, right?

The A330s will get B/E Aerospace Pinnacle Y seats with the Panasonic Eco 9i Integrated Smart Monitors as well as Weber Cirrus flat-bed seats in BusinessElite. Mods will start next year.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-05-08 11:48:06 and read 7074 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 21):
as well as Weber Cirrus flat-bed seats in BusinessElite. Mods will start next year.

Thank you! Forgive my ignorance. Are these seats the same as those on the 767-400ERs? Will they be arranged similarly to the 764s or will they be installed in a herringbone fashion?

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2012-05-08 12:14:08 and read 6746 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 22):
Thank you! Forgive my ignorance. Are these seats the same as those on the 767-400ERs? Will they be arranged similarly to the 764s or will they be installed in a herringbone fashion?

They are a reverse herringbone layout, where the outer seats face the windows and the inner seats face each other. These seats are also being installed on the 744s.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: par13del
Posted 2012-05-08 12:37:03 and read 6469 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I do not believe we will see a MAX version of the 767 because the 787 has replaced it in Boeing's model line up.

I still believe that an a/c in the 767 size including a fuse which does not allow an airline to cram more in is desirable, the problem is that both OEM's are on the bigger is better. Every long haul route run by a 767 now must either be upgraded in size or abandoned.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-05-08 13:10:54 and read 6019 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 20):
On a related note, I don't know what Airbus will do to compete in the market between the A321 and the A358. The A332 seems destined to disappear once the A358 enters service whether or not a theoretical A333ER is effectively launched.

Personally I think the A358 is more likely to disappear. I'm of the opinion that Airbus is trying to cover 2 segments with a single design and this is making A358 and A3510 customers unhappy becuase there's simply too much of a difference between the A358 and the A3510. I think that ultimately they will optimize the A350 for the A359 and A3510 segments and enhance the the A330 to cover the A358 market.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-08 13:14:43 and read 5950 times.

Quoting par13del (Reply 24):
I still believe that an a/c in the 767 size including a fuse which does not allow an airline to cram more in is desirable, the problem is that both OEM's are on the bigger is better.

And yet it was the airlines that pushed them to do so.



Quoting par13del (Reply 24):
Every long haul route run by a 767 now must either be upgraded in size or abandoned.

Not if the 787-8 has similar (or even lower) trip costs. And considering the fuel savings, long-haul routes will be where the 787-8 can maximize that.


Quoting airbazar (Reply 25):
Personally I think the A358 is more likely to disappear.

It cannot disappear. Airbus needs a next-generation airplane in that market segment. Also, if Airbus' projections are correct, the A350-800 will be over 20% more fuel-efficient per seat than the A330-200 and that should put the A350-800's trip costs at or below those of the A330-200. It is for this reason that Airbus themselves expect the A330-200 to stop selling once the A350-800 enters service.

I expect some of the reason nobody wants one before 2016 is they've taken recent A330-200 deliveries.

[Edited 2012-05-08 13:26:19]

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-05-08 15:19:03 and read 4425 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 25):
Personally I think the A358 is more likely to disappear. I'm of the opinion that Airbus is trying to cover 2 segments with a single design and this is making A358 and A3510 customers unhappy becuase there's simply too much of a difference between the A358 and the A3510. I think that ultimately they will optimize the A350 for the A359 and A3510 segments and enhance the the A330 to cover the A358 market.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
It cannot disappear. Airbus needs a next-generation airplane in that market segment. Also, if Airbus' projections are correct, the A350-800 will be over 20% more fuel-efficient per seat than the A330-200 and that should put the A350-800's trip costs at or below those of the A330-200. It is for this reason that Airbus themselves expect the A330-200 to stop selling once the A350-800 enters service.

I have seen there is a debate along these lines going on here on a.net in connection with the A350's future. A post that I found very interesting in another thread that addresses these two issues (perhaps one of you guys posted it) is that maybe Airbus will choose to develop the A358 as a shrink of the A359 using the same wing and other components, and then make substantial variations and changes to the bigger A350-1000 (including among other things a new wing) in order to produce a true 77W / 777-900X competitor. It will be very interesting to see how Airbus solves this.

In the meantime, it is also going to be interesting to see if Airbus will go ahead with the enhancements of the A333.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-05-08 15:25:46 and read 4358 times.

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 6):

Us airways is, there ordering the A332 to phase out the 767 200

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: United_fan
Posted 2012-05-08 15:33:09 and read 4322 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 4):
While Boeing probably would have liked to sell the 764ER to more customers, that doesn't overshadow its primary mission of being a widebody trijet replacement for DL and CO, regardless of what Airbus fans want you to believe.

I have often wondered if Boeing didn't wait so long to bring out the 764,it would have sold better. But 9-11 put the kabosh on that. IMO,the 764 is a great East Coast-Europe /West Coast-Hawaii plane.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: par13del
Posted 2012-05-08 15:34:50 and read 4281 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
And yet it was the airlines that pushed them to do so.

Yes, no new sales but notice that a number of carriers are still operating the a/c, before the 787 debacle, A330's could have been obtained for a fairley reasonable cost, n ot every route run by a 767 needs the extra capacity of an A330, 787 or A350.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Not if the 787-8 has similar (or even lower) trip costs.

That's cost, the extra capacity is still there, somehow I don't think airlines will fly consistently not full a/c because the trip cost is the same or lower than the older a/c, that's just not maximizing the potential of the a/c.
Switch the route to a different a/c and put the larger a/c somewhere else.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: BoeEngr
Posted 2012-05-08 15:35:04 and read 4282 times.

I would expect the A330 to be in production for at least another decade, though likely longer, especially with freighter and A330MRTT production. I don't envision a significant update to the passenger version.

As for the 767, my guess is the 767-2C is the last derivitive we will see. With that said, the -2C should be in production for a very long time.

But anything can happen! I wouldn't have expected a new 767 derivitive 30 years in, so what do I know?

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-08 15:36:03 and read 4260 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 25):
It will be very interesting to see how Airbus solves this.

The original plan was to optimize both the A350-800 and the A350-1000, but as the A350-900's EIS moved further and further to the right, Airbus ended up having to abandon the plans to optimize the A350-800 and instead make it a fuselage shrink of the A350-900. As such, it will carry more empty weight and see a minor percentage increase in fuel burn. That extra structural weight, however, will allow the A350-800 to be certified with higher Weight Variants to allow more fuel and/or payload to be loaded.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-08 15:38:48 and read 4232 times.

Quoting HAL9k (Reply 8):
- Probably yes. The delays with the 787-8 were the fortune of the A330-200.

Undoubtedly. For example, I seriously doubt KE would have 'topped off' their A332 fleet if it were not for 788 delays. If QR had received their 788s timely, they certainly would have offered their A332s at prices that would have pushed new-build sales, and there are probably a dozen other examples that benefited the type.

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 15):
Forsooth, who knows where those corporate groupies' wanderings will lead?

A vs. B, or B vs. A, that is the question.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 18):
I feel this might cannibalize sales of the A359 to some extent

Thank you for the link. Yes, there will be cannibalization of some A350 sales. More likely, it will allow Airbus to compete better with the 787 on mid-range routes. If Airbus does remove weight from the A333, puts on sharklets, increases the MTOW, and do some other changes (I'm hearing about material changes to extend airframe life or more importantly reduce maintenance costs), then it will continue to sell. A weight reduction combined with a MTOW increase will make it a darling of the charter markets (at the right sale price).

Quoting par13del (Reply 22):
the problem is that both OEM's are on the bigger is better. Every long haul route run by a 767 now must either be upgraded in size or abandoned.

It is a matter of CASM. Love it or hate it, price transparency has changed the industry. It is the airlines making the change. They are doing it because that is the only way to make a profit.

The reality is that the 767s will drift towards applications with lower utilization rates: freight and the charter market. I think the 767, in 8-across seating, will do well in the charter market. Though not as well as the A330.

The 767 pushed the A300/A310 out of its markets due to superior economics. Then the A330 returned the favor where the A333 beat it on shorter economics and the A332 opened new routes. Boeing turned the tables with the 787 which forced Airbus to counter with the A350. It is just the nature of the market. You might as well pine for three-holers with the flight engineer. The 767 has had a nice long run. But high oil prices and new technology competition will put it out to pasture.

Not to mention the MAX and NEO. They will take some fraction of the 767 missions due to their lower CASM and far lower cost per flight.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-05-08 15:40:56 and read 4211 times.

Thank you Chris, very enlightening.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: par13del
Posted 2012-05-08 15:47:54 and read 4124 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
Not to mention the MAX and NEO. They will take some fraction of the 767 missions due to their lower CASM and far lower cost per flight.

True, I guess I question the gap between the current 757 / A321 at the low end and the next step up which is the 787 / A330, when the NEO and Max shows up the gap will be a bit lower.

I'm not saying keep the 767 I just believe an a/c in that size still has a place, be interesting to see how long the pax variant stays in service.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Alias1024
Posted 2012-05-08 15:55:17 and read 4032 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I do not believe we will see a MAX version of the 767 because the 787 has replaced it in Boeing's model line up.

I would imagine Boeing thought about this when launching the 787. They had the choice of update or clean sheet and chose the latter.

The 787-8 is too close to the 767-300 in size, with the 767-400 falling squarely in the 787 family size. If Boeing had decided to size the baseline 787 around the size of the 787-9, then maybe there would be justificaiton for a 767-300 MAX. Put the 767 on a diet, add new engines, aerodynamic tweaks, 764 flight deck and it would be a nice aircraft for many airlines.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-05-08 16:32:11 and read 3672 times.

Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
Yes, no new sales but notice that a number of carriers are still operating the a/c, before the 787 debacle, A330's could have been obtained for a fairley reasonable cost, not every route run by a 767 needs the extra capacity of an A330, 787 or A350.

True, but I expect the decision was driven more by how many 767s you had in your fleet already. Airlines like UA, AA, DL, BA, NH, JL, LA and such with large active 767-300ER fleets didn't add the A330-200, instead choosing to top-up with more 767-300ERs. Airlines with smaller 767-300ER fleets (AF, BR, SK, etc.) on the other hand, did switch from the 767-/300ER to the A330-200. And then there is US, who are phasing out their 767-200ERs for the significantly larger to the A330-200. And even some large 767-300ER operators (GF and QF) moved from the 767-300ER to the A330-200 and, in QF's case, the 787-8 (I know GF have 787-8s on order, but they have already retired their 767-300ER fleet).



Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
That's cost, the extra capacity is still there, somehow I don't think airlines will fly consistently not full a/c because the trip cost is the same or lower than the older a/c, that's just not maximizing the potential of the a/c.

True, but an airline would have to assume that their traffic on a route will remain flat for decades to decide to acquire a 767-300ER over a 787-8 if the trip costs were very close. The 787-8 might be underutilized at first, but the economic penalty to do so would be (relatively) low and it would be able to absorb the new traffic as it grew.

Topic: RE: Future Of The 767 & A330?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-08 17:23:01 and read 3231 times.

Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
somehow I don't think airlines will fly consistently not full a/c because the trip cost is the same or lower than the older a/c, that's just not maximizing the potential of the a/c.
Switch the route to a different a/c and put the larger a/c somewhere else.

There is another option: reduce frequency or substitute another flight through a hub. One difference today is balancing demand at hubs. While connecting traffic is typically low yield, I believe the seats will be filled, it will be the RASM that varies.

EK has been the master of this strategy, partially due to lower O&D (current estimates are a peak of 50% O&D during 2007 and probably back at 30% today). But that doesn't hurt EK. They put 20 or so seats onto each connecting flight. Due to the higher yield for O&D, the computers will inherently bias selling tickets for that purpose. All it requires is growth on the other side of the hub...

Quoting par13del (Reply 33):
I guess I question the gap between the current 757 / A321 at the low end and the next step up which is the 787 / A330

These are not dueling pistols, the need to match exactly has been overcome with modern IT infrastructure. One can vary the aircraft used or increase frequency slightly. Let's use SQ at ZRH and CDG. Those used to be 10X weekly with 77Es. Now they are 7X weekly with the A380. In effect, one 77E was split between the two European destinations and three 77Es were replaced with two A380s. If there is flexibility in frequency, then gauge transition will be larger than before.

Those empty seats will be filled with connections and eventually growth. Markets either grow or they shrink. Stable markets are a rarity.

Lightsaber


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