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Topic: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-05-06 08:56:07 and read 11382 times.

Since WN just received the 738 let's speculate on what kind of routes WN could run to Hawaii. I know the we won't see any flights this year but Gary stated next year,

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: erj170
Posted 2012-05-06 09:02:54 and read 11355 times.

I suspect the following: SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, SFO, SAcramento, maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: ltbewr
Posted 2012-05-06 09:15:01 and read 11296 times.

I would think they would want to base any Hawaii flights to only 2 mainland airports, especially where they have a significant amounts of feeder flights but not in direct competition with other airliners and to narrow the perhaps specialized fleet and mx they would need to do Hawaii flights. LAX and SFO might be a problem but more likely OAK, PHX, SEA.

No matter what, if WN can commit to at least 6 and better 8 RT's a day from the mainline to Hawaii, they could be a player, drive down fares and help the tourism industry there. I also suspect they would be popular with military personal and families based in HI.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-05-06 09:20:08 and read 11255 times.

I think OAK and LAX will be their main gateways to Hawaii.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-05-06 09:20:40 and read 11254 times.

OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.

I think the key is which cities could support more than 1 daily flight via O&D and / or connections.

[Edited 2012-05-06 09:23:43]

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: BD338
Posted 2012-05-06 09:24:03 and read 11236 times.

I'll ask the question the other way around...which Hawaiian destinations are WN most likely to serve? I guess HNL is a no-brainer but how about LIH, KOA etc? I hope PHX is a base on the mainland.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-05-06 09:28:30 and read 11174 times.

Quoting BD338 (Reply 5):
I'll ask the question the other way around...which Hawaiian destinations are WN most likely to serve? I guess HNL is a no-brainer but how about LIH, KOA etc? I hope PHX is a base on the mainland.

HNL & OGG. Considering WN's preference for frequency, I would consider KOA and especially LIH long shots.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-05-06 09:31:30 and read 11160 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 6):
HNL & OGG. Considering WN's preference for frequency, I would consider KOA and especially LIH long shots.

Is it possible WN does some kind of inter-island flying;

OAK-HNL-Kona-HNL-OAK

LAX-HNL-LIH-HNL-LAX

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-05-06 09:34:00 and read 11142 times.

It would be perfect if WN kept some 717 to be based there

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: CALPSAFltSkeds
Posted 2012-05-06 09:43:16 and read 11083 times.

Another question would be if WN would change their policy about red eyes.
Red eye eastbounds are a very viable option for Hawaii service and allows more utilization. If you do frequency, you probably do redeyes.

WN has standards for new airports that require minimum frequencies. One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips. With their fares, you not expect tag on help would be needed and not worth the expense of the tagon.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-06 10:19:42 and read 10971 times.

WN will have to set up a station in Hawaii per there union rules. So when they enter, it will have to enter on a fairly large scale (10X fligths per day). So the question, do they only start or or two stations or go big?

Quoting EricR (Reply 4):
OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.

Due to the need to go 'big,' I would expect every West Coast airport with WN service to be a viable candidate.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 8):
It would be perfect if WN kept some 717 to be based there

That would be... ironic. However, I expect more of LAX-HNL-OGG-HNL-LAX types of service with a complimentary service that could be OAK-OGG-HNL-OGG-OAK. One leg would be eliminated with enough frequency.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips.

I agree. HNL and OGG will probably be it.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: swafa
Posted 2012-05-06 11:35:19 and read 10731 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):

The red eye thing is actually more of a practice than a policy. The Flight Attendants have had language in our contract to deal with red eye flights fOr years. Also, to this point, we just negotiated a tentative agreement for language in our contract governing near international and over water flying. One of the example pairings the union uses to explain a duty rig shows a scheduled red eye. I think it's from the islands to the mainland. While its only an example, it may be a sign of things to come.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):

If I'm not mistaken, any new city served by WN with fewer than a certain number of flights per day (don't know what that number is, somebody help me out) can be staffed with contract employees.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Blueman87
Posted 2012-05-06 12:58:05 and read 10492 times.

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

RNO sounds quite far unless you mean a quick stop at LAX first

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2012-05-06 13:04:59 and read 10465 times.

I think you will first see service only to HNL Hawaii from PHX,LAX,LAS,OAK and SAN with late afternoon westbound service.
Then a bank of eastbound redeye service to the mainland. I think you will see lines like BWI-LAX-HNL-redeye-LAX-BWI,
MDW-LAS-HNL-redeye-LAS-MDW, ATL-PHX-HNL-redeye-PHX-ATL, DAL-HOU-SAN-HNL-redeye-SAN-HOU-DAL and
LGA-DEN-OAK-HNL-redeye-OAK-DEN-LGA.
This way 5 800's will not be tied up on just Hawaii. I do see LAX with at least 5 HNL summer time non-stops a day and PHX and LAS with 2 a day.
If the overwater and near international side letter passes with the flight attn group at the end of May I think you will see first ever Redeye flights starting in Nov 2012 along with SJU service then Hawaii spring 2013..
Along with the radical FL flight chances rumored to becoming in NOV the June schedule release should be a good one.
Arm chair network planners and ceo's feed back welcomed...  wnfg

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: reality
Posted 2012-05-06 14:37:57 and read 10242 times.

Quoting Blueman87 (Reply 12):

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

RNO sounds quite far unless you mean a quick stop at LAX first

Reno, being further West than Los Angeles, is only 18 miles further from HNL than LAX.....according to Great Circle.

2574 miles vs. 2556 miles. OAK is 2409 miles from HNL.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: airplaneboy
Posted 2012-05-06 15:39:22 and read 10092 times.

Do the -800s have the range for westbound Hawaii flying from LAS and PHX?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-05-06 15:48:52 and read 10039 times.

I bet the Hawaiian gateways are lax and oak. Also service to SAN, sfo, sac, sna, las. I bet we see sna happen even if united has not had amazing daily results southwest does pretty good at orange county

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-05-06 17:00:23 and read 9860 times.

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 15):
Do the -800s have the range for westbound Hawaii flying from LAS and PHX?

LAS-LAX, a route a travel on pretty often is only about 40 minutes from take-off to touch-down. It won't be a problem.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: atrude777
Posted 2012-05-06 18:08:04 and read 9642 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 17):

LAS-LAX, a route a travel on pretty often is only about 40 minutes from take-off to touch-down. It won't be a problem.

Did you misread his question?  

He wasn't asking about LAS-LAX, only LAS/PHX-Hawaii on the 738.

To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.

Alex

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-06 18:25:40 and read 9564 times.

Quoting swafa (Reply 11):
If I'm not mistaken, any new city served by WN with fewer than a certain number of flights per day (don't know what that number is, somebody help me out) can be staffed with contract employees.

I looks like you are correct! The latest I could find was the 2009 contract.
http://twu555.org/portals/12/PDFfiles/2008-201120CBA.pdf

The text of interest:"Should the Company have a need to contract with third parties for the
performance of covered work at stations where flight activity does not exceed 12
departures per day, the Company shall be entitled to do so. The Company shall
notify the Union of:
a. The nature of the contract; and
b. The anticipated length of time the third party work shall be required.
This provision shall not apply to stations in operation as of date of ratification
(March 27, 2009).",


So it does look like a small amount of contract work is allowed, but the union can contest and have it union work. (That is how I interpret the clause on pg. 6 of the referenced pdf.)

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.

LAS to HNL/OGG will have a little more payload restriction than LAX-HNL/OGG. We're talking just a few seats (2 to 4). It should not significantly effect the business case of the flight. But the 738 from LAX is already pushed. This is one area where small improvements to the 738 will pay off big.

LAS-HNL/OGG will be a perfect route for the 738MAX.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2012-05-06 19:06:15 and read 9447 times.

I doubt you will see an NG on PHX or LAS to Hawaii, the MAX will be a candidate for these. I know that even the 757 on the super hot days takes a restricion out of PHX so I would be surprised to see the 737 on this run before WN takes delivery of the MAX.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2012-05-06 19:07:27 and read 9452 times.

SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.
RNO is also to small of a market to suport Hawaii service at the level WN needs.
Yes the 800's has the legs for PHX and LAS . ATA used the 800's all the time when the 757's were being used for charters.
I see WN by mid year 2013 running only about 10 HNL flts a day and 5 OGG flts.
Enjoy wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: FlyASAguy2005
Posted 2012-05-06 19:27:51 and read 9385 times.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
He wasn't asking about LAS-LAX, only LAS/PHX-Hawaii on the 738.

I understood the question fully. I was simply implying that a 30 minute air-time sector (LAS-LAX) wouldn't affect the flight that much considering -800s operate out of LAX-HNL.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-05-06 20:09:05 and read 8926 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 21):

SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.

Say that to Aloha and United...
I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list. It is a great alternative to LAX, more convenient for people living in the Irvine-Anaheim-Newport Beach area, and the flight times are perfect for connections and O&D (granted they do do redeyes). I don't think a weight restriction would hurt WN as bad as it would UA because a WN 73G would have a lower percentage of seats lost than a UA 73G. Do I think it'll be number 1? No, LAX is a better station to prospect any Hawaii service IMO. Do I think it's in the top 5? Definitely.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: chrisair
Posted 2012-05-06 21:33:04 and read 8311 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23):
I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list.

I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2012-05-06 21:44:53 and read 8536 times.

I really wonder would WN considering flying to Hawai'i? Remember, we already have HA and UA flying there, and revenue is going to be quite low given the competition routes to Hawai'i.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-06 22:16:50 and read 8359 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23):
Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 21):
SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.
Say that to Aloha and United...

Neither of which used 738s on the route; 73Gs were used, and they have no weight penalty on SNA-HNL whereas a 738 does, rendering the flight unprofitable.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2012-05-06 23:52:54 and read 8093 times.

Aloha and now with United even have weight restrictions on every flight from SNA to Hawaii.
United unlike Aloha blocks 20 seats on SNA-HNL flights 20mins before dep time if they room they fill it up with non-rev's.
When I worked at SNA Aloha used to leave 50 to 100 bags of full flights all the time because of weight restrictions because of SNA short runway.
Sometimes they would ship the bags via Fedex or UPS or they would also send them on WN to OAK to connect to a non weight restricted Aloha flights out of OAK.
It's the fuel needed for the ETOPS x The noise restictions and SNA runway length makes the 737-800 not able without huge money loss on every flight.
Unless the 737max brings more to the table on ETOPS or WN keeps the 10 FL ETOPS 737-700 they have ETOPS also I don't see WN ever doing BUR or SNA Hawaii non stops.....  wnfg

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Barney Captain
Posted 2012-05-07 00:12:39 and read 7942 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 21):
Yes the 800's has the legs for PHX and LAS . ATA used the 800's all the time when the 757's were being used for charters.

Filling in for a chartered 757 and trying to schedule year round service are two completely different concepts. The -800 will likely never be scheduled out of PHX/LAS for the Islands - the summer temps will make it nearly impossible. The second segment climb restrictions out of LAS alone make it a non-starter.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: jporterfi
Posted 2012-05-07 01:15:30 and read 7743 times.

I think they will probably go with LAX and OAK (or maybe SJC instead?) on the mainland side and HNL and OGG on the Hawaii side. I think those are the only routes that have both the capacity necessary to justify them and enough connections (and frequency) to other airports on the mainland.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-07 01:36:03 and read 7690 times.

LAX and OAK are no-brainers, and I can potentially see ONT as well, possibly SAN. Beyond that, I don't know that I can see any other viable West Coast to Hawaii opportunities for WN.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: atrude777
Posted 2012-05-07 05:51:23 and read 6860 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 25):
I really wonder would WN considering flying to Hawai'i? Remember, we already have HA and UA flying there, and revenue is going to be quite low given the competition routes to Hawai'i.

Yes, WN is considering it and has every intention of starting Hawaii as soon as they can. They didn't get the -800 to hop around the US from MDW-STL, and MCO-ISP.


We have every Legacy Airline flying from the US Mainline to Hawaii, not just HA and UA.

Quoting FlyASAguy2005 (Reply 22):

I understood the question fully. I was simply implying that a 30 minute air-time sector (LAS-LAX) wouldn't affect the flight that much considering -800s operate out of LAX-HNL.

Oh Ok, I was so thrown off by what LAS-LAX had to do with it but now you explained it that makes sense.

Alex

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: COA735
Posted 2012-05-07 06:52:03 and read 6445 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 30):
LAX and OAK are no-brainers, and I can potentially see ONT as well, possibly SAN. Beyond that, I don't know that I can see any other viable West Coast to Hawaii opportunities for WN

What about PDX? Don't they have a sizable presence there?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-05-07 07:10:26 and read 6312 times.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 31):
We have every Legacy Airline flying from the US Mainline to Hawaii, not just HA and UA.

I think RayChuang meant the Big Island.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: flyer737sw
Posted 2012-05-07 07:27:24 and read 6206 times.

Considering we need to have mechanics for ETOPS flights, OAK, LAS, PHX, and LAX will be among the first to serve Hawaii, along with SJC and SAN at a later time.
I see WN starting service at Hilo Airport first, and then running hopper flights over to the other islands. If the 717's cannot find another home these can be used between the islands along with the 500's until they are retired.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2012-05-07 07:28:40 and read 6187 times.

Quoting chrisair (Reply 24):
I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?

AS already looked at service from SNA-HNL It wasn't practical on the -800 due to weight restrictions because of the runway length. Outfitting a small number of -700's as ETOPS wasn't practical for just this one route. Unless the good people of Orange County want to extend their runway a bit I don't think you'll be seeing anyone trying Hawaii from SNA again. UA just announced it's ending service SNA-HNL. http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/n...rlines-to-end-honolulu-orange.html

I see WN using OAK and LAX as gateways to HNL and OGG. Wouldn't be surprised to see service from SAN, LAS, SMF and SJC either. I think that's about it....forget about RNO, SEA, PDX.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: msp747
Posted 2012-05-07 07:38:46 and read 6083 times.

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
I suspect the following: SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, SFO, SAcramento, maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

I think SEA is a no go based on costs. WN tried to move its flights to Boeing Field because of the high costs of operating out of SEA. Why would they start a fare war with the home town airline on flights to Hawaii, which are already price sensitive? I think PDX is out for similar reasons, although I guess I wouldn't be shocked if WN made inroads there. I think WN will focus on California airports like OAK and LAX for starters, then branch out, depending on business from certain cities.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: laca773
Posted 2012-05-07 08:33:21 and read 5718 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
I think OAK and LAX will be their main gateways to Hawaii.

Is LAX a "no brainer" because the 73Hs won't take a weight penalty? There's a lot of traffic from LAX already. If it does happen, I hope it brings down fares markedly so more people can travel to and from the islands.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
He wasn't asking about LAS-LAX, only LAS/PHX-Hawaii on the 738.

To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.

Alex

I think ATA flew most of their PHX-HNL/OGG flights with the 757s.

I think "no brainers" would be PHX & LAS however, in the summer can those 73Hs fly the distance with the high temperatures during the summer months?

I think we'll see SAN service as well in addition to OAK.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-07 08:44:20 and read 5625 times.

Quoting Barney Captain (Reply 28):
The -800 will likely never be scheduled out of PHX/LAS for the Islands - the summer temps will make it nearly impossible. The second segment climb restrictions out of LAS alone make it a non-starter.

Even with the latest CFM-56 'evolution?' I suspect there is the possibility of a well timed (morning) flight. It is a question of when, not if.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Barney Captain
Posted 2012-05-07 09:06:12 and read 5472 times.

Quoting laca773 (Reply 37):
Is LAX a "no brainer" because the 73Hs won't take a weight penalty? There's a lot of traffic from LAX already. If it does happen, I hope it brings down fares markedly so more people can travel to and from the islands.

I question whether or not you will see us doing LAX - Hawaii at all. As you correctly state, that market is completely saturated by every major carrier using 757's and larger. I suspect there's a good reason AS never touched that market.

Quoting laca773 (Reply 37):
I think ATA flew most of their PHX-HNL/OGG flights with the 757s.

They did.

Quoting laca773 (Reply 37):
I think "no brainers" would be PHX & LAS however, in the summer can those 73Hs fly the distance with the high temperatures during the summer months?

Not without huge penalties - making that route questionable at best.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38):
Even with the latest CFM-56 'evolution?' I suspect there is the possibility of a well timed (morning) flight. It is a question of when, not if.

I'm unfamiliar with what you're referring to. AFAIK, we have the standard CFM 56's that are hung on every other -800.


My prediction is (in no particular order), SAN, SJC, OAK, SMF and maybe LAX.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2012-05-07 09:13:44 and read 5472 times.

Quoting Barney Captain (Reply 39):
I suspect there's a good reason AS never touched that market.

AS is not happy that they don't serve Hawaii from the LA Basin. It's the big hole in the route map...but like Barney said, there's already a huge amount of capacity out of LAX. BUR and SNA are out due to short runways. ONT is a beautiful facility but is barely hanging on as it is....service there is a shadow of 5-10 years ago. That leaves LAX or LGB as the only practical options out of LA. AS chose to not enter LAX due to the already-stiff competition....it'll be interesting to see if WN does the same. If they went in with major frequency LAX-HNL they could give everyone a run for their money!

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2012-05-07 09:15:53 and read 5450 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
WN will have to set up a station in Hawaii per there union rules. So when they enter, it will have to enter on a fairly large scale (10X fligths per day)

No such rules to force a large station. CRP has 3 flights a day some days. SJD is being opened with 1 SNA flight/day. MEX is being opened with 2 flights a day.

Quoting Barney Captain (Reply 39):
I suspect there's a good reason AS never touched that market.

WN has a lot more options in terms of connecting passengers than AS has at LAX.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Barney Captain
Posted 2012-05-07 09:44:43 and read 5366 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 41):
WN has a lot more options in terms of connecting passengers than AS has at LAX.

Agreed. This may be what swings the pendulum in favor of doing it.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-05-07 10:09:35 and read 5327 times.

Quoting Barney Captain (Reply 39):
I'm unfamiliar with what you're referring to. AFAIK, we have the standard CFM 56's that are hung on every other -800.

In 2011 CFM launched a reduced fuel burn CFM-56, much of which (I found out this week) is nacelle changes.

http://www.flightglobal.com/director...facturer=3279&navigationItemId=382

The Evolution engine:

On 28 April 2009, the CFM56-7B Evolution engine enhancement programme for Boeing’s 737 Next Generation family was announced. The new variant is scheduled to enter airline service in mid-2011 to coincide with the 737NG airframe improvements announced by Boeing at the same time. The Evolution engine, to be known in service on Next-Generation 737s as the CFM56-7BE, provides a 2% improvement in fuel consumption, equating to a 2% reduction in carbon emissions. Additionally, the CFM56-7BE will provide up to 4% lower maintenance costs, depending on the thrust rating. CFM has used advanced computer codes and three-dimensional design techniques to improve airfoils in the high- and low-pressure turbines to improve the Evolution engine’s performance. The company has also utilised improved engine cooling techniques and reduced the parts count to achieve lower maintenance costs.


Note: The evolution is part of an airframe package (nacelle). The engine dropped fuel burn 1%, the other 1% is basically the nacelle changes.

EIS was July 2011 with China Southern, so I would expect WN to have ordered the more capable (in lower fuel burn) engine. However, due to parts changes, perhaps the small fuel burn wasn't worth it? For flights to Hawaii, a 2% drop in fuel burn is about 70nm more range. Not huge, but certainly of value.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 41):
No such rules to force a large station.

Already noted my error in reply 19. I do come onto a.net to learn.  
Quoting usflyguy (Reply 41):
WN has a lot more options in terms of connecting passengers than AS has at LAX.

Agreed. But there will be a 'first mover' advantage. I would be surprised if AS doesn't try to enter the market. I would be shocked if WN doesn't enter the LAX-HNL/OGG markets within four years.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2012-05-07 10:13:36 and read 5310 times.

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
I suspect the following: SEA,

That seems unimaginable to me. There is already a ton of Hawaii service from SEA with AS and Hawaiian. Why would anyone choose WN over those (on this route)?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: AADC10
Posted 2012-05-07 10:49:09 and read 5200 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 16):
I bet we see sna happen even if united has not had amazing daily results southwest does pretty good at orange county

I doubt they would operate out of SNA. The slots might be better used elsewhere and it would be difficult for a 737 to get off the short runway and get to HNL. Only a 757 could operate SNA-HNL regularly with a full load.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: 777STL
Posted 2012-05-07 11:08:46 and read 5151 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips.

I don't see either being worth WN's time. From an economies of scale perspective, it's not going to be worth it for WN to set up a station for a couple flights/day which is about all LIH and KOA could support. Maybe some day in the distant future, but not initially.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-07 13:04:54 and read 5010 times.

Quoting Barney Captain (Reply 39):
Quoting laca773 (Reply 37):Is LAX a "no brainer" because the 73Hs won't take a weight penalty? There's a lot of traffic from LAX already. If it does happen, I hope it brings down fares markedly so more people can travel to and from the islands.
I question whether or not you will see us doing LAX - Hawaii at all. As you correctly state, that market is completely saturated by every major carrier using 757's and larger. I suspect there's a good reason AS never touched that market.

LAX is a slam-dunk. Even though there's stiff competition, WN can compete against every carrier in the LAX-HNL or LAX-OGG market with three major advantages: CASM ex-fuel, the 73H being a terrific aircraft for HI ops, and don't forget the "Southwest Effect" where the lower fares actually create more of a market than existed previously.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-05-07 22:19:37 and read 4677 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 47):
LAX is a slam-dunk. Even though there's stiff competition, WN can compete against every carrier in the LAX-HNL or LAX-OGG market with three major advantages: CASM ex-fuel, the 73H being a terrific aircraft for HI ops, and don't forget the "Southwest Effect" where the lower fares actually create more of a market than existed previously.

LAX-HNL has been around forever. There is plenty of competition. I'm not sure how much more "stimulating" WN can induce. With the so called Southwest Effect or not.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: QANTAS747-438
Posted 2012-05-07 23:54:45 and read 4574 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 47):
LAX is a slam-dunk. Even though there's stiff competition,

Yes, there is stiff competition, but if you look at it strictly from a loads point of view, ALL the flights on UA, AA, DL are FULL. They are packed year-round. There is plenty to go around and WN would be no different. WN could run 3 HNL's a day and they would be jam packed.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-08 00:14:31 and read 4562 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 48):
LAX-HNL has been around forever.

Absolutely.

Except it's not that WN would lower fares which would stimulate new demand, but rather the public's perception that they'd lower fares that would stimulate new demand.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-08 03:41:20 and read 4458 times.

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
I suspect the following: SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, SFO, SAcramento, maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast

That's not going to happen with WN now, and the cost of jet fuel. I think some of your cities are correct.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
I think OAK and LAX will be their main gateways to Hawaii

I think OAK is a no brainer, WN may be able to capture market share from AS in this market, I know AS got in first, but WN can connect country wide from OAK. I agree LAX is saturated but again WN offers plenty of connections from LAX.

Quoting EricR (Reply 4):
OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.

Me too, WN has downsized in SEA, heck they don't even offer non-stop flights from SEA or PDX to the LA basin, let alone flights to Hawaii. If they did offer SEA & PDX, I could see routings like HNL-SEA-PDX-HNL or v.v and then give AS and UA a much needed run for their money on the SEA-PDX-SEA run, charging some 49.00 each way fare to fill seats on that leg. Airlines have done this for years, but not recently, last was NW 925/926 HNL-SEA-PDX, change of gauge in SEA.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):
Is it possible WN does some kind of inter-island flying;

Would be nice to finally kill off Go, and keep HA honest in the market. It's not very profitable flying, but if they build a large enough hub in HNL, they could connect thru passengers onto a myriad of mainland routes, flying 5-6 times a day on HNL-KOA, HNL-OGG, HNL-LIH, but I doubt this will happen, it would be quite an entry into the market, and surely make a name for themselves, they could endure the time it would take to get contracts from companies in Hawaii to fly WN, but like the Northwest and AS, Hawaiians love their Hawaiian, otherwise airlines like MidPacific, Discovery, Mahalo Air would have succeeded.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 8):
It would be perfect if WN kept some 717 to be based there

Again, neat idea, and I can see some reasons to do this, but I highly doubt WN will go this. They publicly have said the 717 doesn't fit into the airlines fleet plans to date. the 735 would be interesting, but IIRC, AQ had problems with the 733 and 734 flying interisland, something about the engines not cooling enough between flights as interisland flights have quick turnarounds.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
Another question would be if WN would change their policy about red eyes.
Red eye eastbounds are a very viable option for Hawaii service and allows more utilization. If you do frequency, you probably do redeyes
Quoting chrisair (Reply 24):
I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
Neither of which used 738s on the route; 73Gs were used, and they have no weight penalty on SNA-HNL whereas a 738 does, rendering the flight unprofitable
SNA would be great for WN, but the 73G has almost the same burn as a 738 and caries les passengers, and isn't as profitable per passenger mile than the 738, however the 738 fully laiden is not able to operate full from SNA or BUR. But what if the SNA-HNL flight made a quick stop in ONT, then flew non-stop to Hawaii, adding 45 mins to the trip. They would only need to do it on thee westbound, the return would be fine.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 30):
and I can potentially see ONT, a shame too, a great airport to get to and from PSP or anywhere in between.

Quoting COA735 (Reply 32):
What about PDX? Don't they have a sizable presence there?

Nah, I'm a PDX nut, but DL pulled out of PDX-HNL because it could not support 3 airlines, now we have two HA and AS, seems like the right amount of service. AS can connect anywhere WN could from PDX, GEG, BOI, RNO

Quoting flyer737sw (Reply 34):
I see WN starting service at Hilo Airport first, and then running hopper flights over to the other islands. If the 717's cannot find another home these can be used between the islands along with the 500's until they are retired

I'm sure WN won't use the 717's they are trying to get rid of 'em, but the 735 wouldn't have enough time to cool down the engines in the quick turn around interisland flying situation.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 44):
That seems unimaginable to me. There is already a ton of Hawaii service from SEA with AS and Hawaiian. Why would anyone choose WN over those (on this route)?
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):
Except it's not that WN would lower fares which would stimulate new demand, but rather the public's perception that they'd lower fares that would stimulate new demand.

Often times WN is more expensive than the competition. They do have people thinking they are the lowest often times. I doubt WN will stimulate traffic to Hawaii. bottom line is, people are going on domestic vacations more and more, have you seen the taxes on International tickets? Hawaii is the most exotic domestic vacation there is, I think AS, G4, WN and even VX will be filling the increased demand, and no one will loose many passengers. even with all these new entrants I expect load factors to remain high, and margins to remain profitable in the long run, in the short run, there will be some fare wars to establish themselves, then things will get back to normal.

[Edited 2012-05-08 04:07:36]


[Edited 2012-05-08 04:13:10]

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-08 04:23:27 and read 4419 times.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 44):
That seems unimaginable to me. There is already a ton of Hawaii service from SEA with AS and Hawaiian. Why would anyone choose WN over those (on this route)?

Don't forget DL on this route as well. daily 753's IIRC.

Quoting chrisair (Reply 24):
I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?
Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
Another question would be if WN would change their policy about red eyes.Red eye eastbounds are a very viable option for Hawaii service and allows more utilization. If you do frequency, you probably do redeyes

WN has publicly stated they will be concentrating ETOPS certification for the 800's only, and also WN has stated they will be operating red-eyes eastbound to the mainland to make their morning departure banks from said connecting point. I see lots of routes that are potential options, but IMHO, OAK, LAS, LAX seem like the real options, I could see them keeping the ETOPS 800's close to the west coast, instead of through flights to BWI, ATL or even HOU would take an ETOPS plane they need for Hawaii flying domestic legs a 300, 500 or 700 could operate.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2012-05-08 04:41:32 and read 4386 times.

Lots of people talking about the "givens" and "slam dunks" here. Just thought I'd put things in perspective by noting who's listed in WN's own Top Ten Airports by Departures list (as of 11-6-11) and their own City Fact Sheets, all found on WN.com. Here are the last 3 stations on their Top Ten list:

#8 LAX - 113 daily departures; (106 according to the City Fact Sheet); 21 n/s cities, and 11 gates.
#9 OAK - 107 daily departures; (102 noted on the City Fact Sheet); 19 n/s cities, and 13 gates.
#10 SAN - 95 daily departures; (93 listed on the City Fact Sheet); 19 n/s cities, and 11 gates.

Oh and according to Hawaii Visitor's Bureau stats, the SF Bay Area, LA and San Diego are always in the Top Five markets for number of visitors to the Islands.

Kind of looks to me like maybe 3 California cities might be no-brainers...

bb

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: gizmonc
Posted 2012-05-08 06:03:06 and read 4306 times.

Five hours flying time from all of those cities is a long flight to me. But I presume the WIFI will be working on all those flights so if you have a table with good battery life you can entertain yourself. If I was flying that long I would have to pack some type of lunch/dinner bag with snacks, the soda and water is free from WN.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-05-08 09:07:57 and read 4165 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):
Except it's not that WN would lower fares which would stimulate new demand, but rather the public's perception that they'd lower fares that would stimulate new demand.

I most certainly agree with you EA. My thing is that I question the amount of demand actually left to stimulate.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2012-05-08 11:30:35 and read 4036 times.

Quoting gizmonc (Reply 54):

Yes, all -800's are coming online with wifi and it's satellite based so it should work over the pacific.

WN already has quite a few 5+ hour flights, so that aspect is nothing new. I think the longest flight currently is MHT-LAS at about 2,400 Miles.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2012-05-08 11:45:44 and read 4009 times.

LAX, OAK, LAS ... HNL, OGG

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: atrude777
Posted 2012-05-08 12:07:17 and read 3994 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 56):
I think the longest flight currently is MHT-LAS at about 2,400 Miles.

Barely...

PVD-LAS holds WN's longest route by mileage at 2, 363, MHT-LAS follows by 2,356.

However if we're to include Air Tran flying, BWI-SFO will be the longest flight in mileage of WN/FL combined with 2,457.

Alex

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: aloha73g
Posted 2012-05-08 12:09:34 and read 3983 times.

I think they will start with something like:

2 x HNL-LAX
3 x HNL-OAK
1 x HNL-SAN

I would expect these flights to originate in other big WN cities (BWI, MDW, HOU, PHX, LAS).

Within a year I could see it built up to:

3 x HNL-LAX
4 x HNL-OAK
1 x HNL-SAN
1 x HNL-SJC
1 x HNL-ONT
2 x OGG-LAX
2 x OGG-OAK
1 x OGG-SAN
1 x OGG-ONT

Beyond that, who knows. Direct same-plane service to/from LAS should be offered for us Hawaii residents...it would do well until the MAX arrives for reliable non-stop service.

-Aloha!

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: WNCrew
Posted 2012-05-08 12:26:13 and read 3947 times.

With ITO being fairly dead, and the local area (in terms of hotels etc) fairly depressed, do any of you see ITO being a good alternative to KOA cost-wise? Perhaps WN could get a good deal of traffic moving through ITO, or tag it on to another route from HNL.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-08 13:58:52 and read 3822 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):
I could see routings like HNL-SEA-PDX-HNL or v.v and then give AS and UA a much needed run for their money on the SEA-PDX-SEA run, charging some 49.00 each way fare to fill seats on that leg.

So let me get this straight; you're advocating that WN add very costly (and unappealing to customers!) tags to a potential West Coast to Hawaii service so they can compete in the SEAPDX market?

I respect your opinion, however can't you see how absurd that proposition is? Particularly since SEAPDX has just about HOURLY service at this point already?

A quicker solution would be to ask Gary Kelly to take a wheelbarrow full of cash, add gasoline and light a match. He'd achieve the same loss rate, but wouldn't it take as long to realize.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):
what if the SNA-HNL flight made a quick stop in ONT, then flew non-stop to Hawaii

See above.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):
I doubt WN will stimulate traffic to Hawaii

Tell me this; considering that WN's entry into just about ANY market ultimately results in creating some demand that wasn't there previously, WHY do you doubt it here? Be specific.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2012-05-08 14:37:28 and read 3733 times.

Haven't heard anything out of BWI but, chances are when I'm invited to dress as a Sumo wrestler with a pineapple that will mean our company is ready for the big we are going to Hawaii blitz at least dealing with BWI.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2012-05-08 15:21:20 and read 3677 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):
SNA would be great for WN, but the 73G has almost the same burn as a 738 and caries les passengers, and isn't as profitable per passenger mile than the 738, however the 738 fully laiden is not able to operate full from SNA or BUR. But what if the SNA-HNL flight made a quick stop in ONT, then flew non-stop to Hawaii, adding 45 mins to the trip. They would only need to do it on thee westbound, the return would be fine.

In the early 1990s, AS would take off their MD80s from SNA with low fuel to meet noise rules. They stopped at ONT to get enough fuel to complete the trip to PDX or SEA. This was one of the few instances where ONT neighbors got upset about aircraft noise, when it was to benefit Newport Beach noise restrictions.

This would again be a point of contention if the plane stopped at ONT for fuel only and not pax, but it also would not be a popular ticket out of ONT if only center seats were left after everyone else had boarded in SNA.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-09 01:22:13 and read 3384 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 61):
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):I could see routings like HNL-SEA-PDX-HNL or v.v and then give AS and UA a much needed run for their money on the SEA-PDX-SEA run, charging some 49.00 each way fare to fill seats on that leg.
So let me get this straight; you're advocating that WN add very costly (and unappealing to customers!) tags to a potential West Coast to Hawaii service so they can compete in the SEAPDX market?


***Didn't ever indicate WN should compete in the market, what I said was they could fill empty seats for the very short flight to compensate for the extra cost of the tag, and some travellers would fly it to save more than 50%+ vs UA or AS. I was replying to a person who thought WN would go N/S to Hawaii from both PDX & SEA, and instead of shooting down everything he said, I took his just as valid opinion, and nicely said something else may be better.

I respect your opinion, however can't you see how absurd that proposition is? Particularly since SEAPDX has just about HOURLY service at this point already?

***I'm sure that's not respect I'm feeling. Again see above.***

A quicker solution would be to ask Gary Kelly to take a wheelbarrow full of cash, add gasoline and light a match. He'd achieve the same loss rate, but wouldn't it take as long to realize.

***I'm very sure you are incorrect in your assumptions in regards to this comment.***

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):what if the SNA-HNL flight made a quick stop in ONT, then flew non-stop to Hawaii
See above.

***Again, instead of just shooting another poster down, I kindly found an alternative that may help make him feel valid for his opinion, and knowing airlines have many times used ONT as a stop to fuel for longer range flights that can't leave SNA without being restricted, I offered it up as a friendly alternative, it's a discussion not an unfriendly forum.***

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):I doubt WN will stimulate traffic to Hawaii
Tell me this; considering that WN's entry into just about ANY market ultimately results in creating some demand that wasn't there previously, WHY do you doubt it here? Be specific.

What I was saying, there is already an increased demand for Hawaii, as passengers are opting to take domestic vacations, as International ticket taxes are astronomical and put a week or two in Europe or other International points out of reach for many vacationers, there are also those who prefer to stay in the country for other reasons, costs of passports for example. It's obvious with AS, G4, WN and even VX adding Hawaii now or at some point soon, the demand is already up and WN won't make the splash they have elsewhere when entering a market, Because there are already several LCC's serving Hawaii, fares won't be able to adjust a much lower and remain profitable. Your usually much nicer in responding to my posts, guess you really don't see what I see.  

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: QANTAS747-438
Posted 2012-05-09 01:33:08 and read 3378 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 52):
WN has publicly stated they will be concentrating ETOPS certification for the 800's only, and also WN has stated they will be operating red-eyes eastbound to the mainland to make their morning departure banks from said connecting point.

Where or when has WN said this? I agree with everything said, I just haven't seen that publicly stated.

Quoting WNCrew (Reply 60):
With ITO being fairly dead, and the local area (in terms of hotels etc) fairly depressed, do any of you see ITO being a good alternative to KOA cost-wise?

It's a good idea and nobody has yet to mention ITO as a Hawaiian stop for WN, but no, I don't see it happening. I think there's more money and paxs on the KOA side.

I also say WN will do well in LIH. I can see 1x LAX-LIH and 1x OAK-LIH. If connections weren't a problem, I'd put SFO-LIH over OAK-LIH. Could SFO work at present with Hawaii flights, in terms of connections?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-09 01:44:11 and read 3371 times.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 65):
Where or when has WN said this? I agree with everything said, I just haven't seen that publicly stated.

It was stated in a previous thread, something to do with WN Hawaii services, I'll look for it, and add a link. Sorry wish I had the information at my fingertips, because it surprised me at first, but it does make sense, the 73G is not the ideal aircraft for Hawaii flights.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: QANTAS747-438
Posted 2012-05-09 01:56:53 and read 3369 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 66):
It was stated in a previous thread, something to do with WN Hawaii services, I'll look for it, and add a link. Sorry wish I had the information at my fingertips, because it surprised me at first, but it does make sense, the 73G is not the ideal aircraft for Hawaii flights.
Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 65):
and also WN has stated they will be operating red-eyes eastbound to the mainland to make their morning departure banks from said connecting point.

Sorry, I meant the part about WN stating they will do redeyes, not the ETOPS/-800 part.  

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-09 03:37:54 and read 3328 times.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 67):
Sorry, I meant the part about WN stating they will do redeyes, not the ETOPS/-800 part

Something else I read in that same thread, I of course am going on what was said, although I did read the article. The only possible way WN will be able to connect passengers to the east and central US, they will need to do redeyes to the west coast. I know it was the first time I remember ever reading something definitive about WN and red-eye flying.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-09 04:23:07 and read 3302 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 64):
Your usually much nicer in responding to my posts, guess you really don't see what I see.

My comments weren't intended to be nasty, and I certainly apologize if that's how they came across. Nonetheless, I do stand by what I said in terms of the idea of tags being very poor ones; they'll add costs and won't add value.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Bluewave 707
Posted 2012-05-09 13:06:59 and read 3130 times.

Since WN pretty much runs ONT ... they could even fly out of there to offset some of the LAX congestion ...

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: aztrainer
Posted 2012-05-09 14:32:26 and read 3031 times.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.
Quoting laca773 (Reply 37):
I think ATA flew most of their PHX-HNL/OGG flights with the 757s.

Most of the time is was the 757

My first flight to HNL was on a HP 757 and in the summer and it was weight restricted,

As for WN flying to Hawai'i from PHX, I will say that they will do it in WN style. This being that when able they may do it non-stop, but the flight will originate in PHX and then go to SAN, LAX, OAK for the next segment/fill the tanks and then off to HNL, OGG, and KON.

I can also see WN using the 717 in Hawai'i as it has been proven to work.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-09 19:15:28 and read 2887 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 69):
My comments weren't intended to be nasty, and I certainly apologize if that's how they came across. Nonetheless, I do stand by what I said in terms of the idea of tags being very poor ones; they'll add costs and won't add value.

Yeah it did, I'm over it. I personally don't think WN will look at PDX & SEA to HI, but the comment I responded to had someone thinking WN would fly to PDX & SEA directly from HI, so instead of gunning his opinion down I offered up a speculative option. WN does have a tendency to make several hops under one flight number, I don't see why HI flights should be different, if it were another carrier I would not have been so ready to say what I said, but face it, WN doesn't work the same way others do, and it does work for them. With WN it's less of a tag, and more of another stop.

BTW, we're good!  

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2012-05-09 20:47:22 and read 2798 times.

Hey RWA', I should probably stay out of this but I think EA CO AS was specifically talking about your suggestion of WN flying between SEA and PDX (as tag-ons to HI flights.)

There is no question (in my mind) that WN will continue almost all of their HNL-mainland flights on to points-beyond (such as HNL-LAX-PHX, OGG-SAN-BWI, HNL-OAK-MDW, or whatever.) In addition, connection opportunities (involving change-of-planes) will obviously be offered with WN's usual scheduling style. That's just the way they do it.

Local traffic to the selected west coast gateways will also be an important factor for WN so they will undoubtedly maximize connections-potential as well as the local market when they decide on which gateways they will utilize.

As I mentioned (and documented) in my earlier post in this thread (#53), the 3 California airports plus LAS and PHX would seem to be the most likely gateways they might choose.

bb

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2012-05-09 22:24:22 and read 2722 times.

I think we can all agree that WN to Hawaii is now a matter of when, not if. After all, there really wouldn't be a need to undergo the extensive (and expensive) ETOPS process for any other reason - having ETOPS capability is absolutely necessary when it comes to flying from the mainland to Hawaii, but they could easily get by with mere overwater certification for any and all Latin America/Caribbean routes, a la FL and B6.

The real question, of course, is how WN will offer service to the Aloha State. Here are my thoughts:

WN has completely abandoned their classic business model. They no longer avoid service to congested primary airports - they now aggressively pursue slots, gate space, and/or other means necessary to enter them. They are no longer adamantly opposed to offering redeye service. They no longer insist on opening stations with a splashy major debut consisting of ~8 daily flights. They will soon add CAK to the network with a mere 3 daily flights, DSM comes online with just two daily flights, and (for the time being) there is just one lone daily canyon blue flight into DAY. Not to mention the new foreign (FL) markets added by WN; 2x daily MEX and 1x daily SJD. The point is, the classic WN threshold no longer applies to the new WN's expansion strategy. So, what does this mean when it comes to Hawaii?

1) WN won't be taking Hawaii by storm overnight. They'll start off with relatively few flights, just as AS did back in 2007 when they began their Hawaiian foray with SEA-HNL, SEA-LIH, and seasonal ANC-HNL. A year later they started serving OGG and KOA, and then in 2009 they began the first of several p2p Hawaiian routes out of California. After a modest start, they steadily increased service to the impressive levels we see today. G4 will also be starting small - they certainly didn't invest in an arduously long ETOPS process and fleet of 6 757s just to offer 3x weekly LAS-HNL and 1x weekly FAT-HNL. Once the HNL base established and gain traction in the mainland-Hawaii market, I imagine we'll see them adding quite a few more flights!

2) Don't rule out the possibility of WN service to any/all of Hawaii's five major (overseas) gateways: HNL, OGG, KOA, LIH, and ITO. Their codeshare partner TZ was serving all five markets nonstop from OAK by 2007. It was done before, and perhaps will be done again. I would not expect to see the likes of LIH and ITO off the bat, but down the line, if WN enjoys AS-style success with regards to the Hawaiian market, I could see them coming online. Obviously the smaller markets would start at low frequencies, perhaps just 1x daily, as we have already seen with the addition of DAY and SJD. I would certainly not expect any of the Hawaiian stations, even HNL, to open at the traditional threshold of 7-8 daily flights.

One thing to note is that WN currently has just one crew base within easy 738 range of Hawaii: OAK. Therefore, I'm all but certain that some or all of the first flights to Hawaii will involve OAK. There have been persistent rumors that a LAX crew base will be opening, ostensibly to support Hawaiian flights. However, it would be easy to staff LAX-Hawaii flights, if only initially, with crews from OAK, LAS, PHX, DEN, etc. I would think the establishment of a LAX crew base could depend on many things, such as airport costs (the new TBIT and other improvement projects are driving them up) and getting US to move out of Terminal 1. In any case, I'll guess that the initial flights to Hawaii will be something like 2x daily OAK-HNL/1x daily OAK-OGG, or 2x daily OAK-HNL/2x daily LAX-HNL. Other routes from HNL and service to the outer islands could certainly happen thereafter. Within 5-10 years, if WN enjoys AS-style success and becomes a major player to the Hawaiian market, I would not be surprised to see them flying routes that seem almost inconceivable to us today; i.e. RNO-HNL, ONT-OGG, SMF-KOA, SAN-LIH, etc. In the past 12 years we have seen mainland-Hawaii 737 operators (AQ, TZ, AS) open all kinds of routes we never thought possible!

Let me address some of the other speculation/posts I've seen:

Interisland service: Absolutely not. WN intends to get rid of all 717s as quickly as possible, and we know from AQ that the modern 737s (Classics as well as NGs) are not suited for interisland routes. Let alone the inability to compete against HA's well-established, ultra-high frequency interisland trunk routes and the inevitable backlash from the local market. Even if YV pulls the plug on Go! and leaves a void, I doubt too many Hawaiians would like to see another brash airline from the mainland come in to attack the last uniquely Hawaiian carrier.

LAS/PHX-Hawaii: Simply too much to ask of an all-Y 738 laden with the required (ETOPS-mandated) amount of fuel. In the summer you have very hot temps in the desert markets that negatively affect performance, in the winter you may run into hefty Pineapple Express headwinds on the westbound sector. TZ may have been able to do PHX-Hawaii with the 738, but theirs had a 2-class layout - and they had 757s on hand as a back-up option. The established competitors HA (out of both markets), US (out of PHX), and G4 (out of LAS) all deploy much more capable aircraft on these routes. In order to get everyone (and their 2 free checked bags) to Hawaii on time and safely, WN will either have to take some pretty hefty capacity restrictions during peak summer/winter holiday periods or wait until the 737MAX arrives. I would think they would opt for the latter option. In the meantime, everybody can be routed through California.

SEA/PDX-Hawaii: Seeing as how WN has never been willing to directly challenge AS on the SEA/PDX-SoCal routes, they are very unlikely to directly challenge AS on their established SEA/PDX-Hawaii routes either. Also, there was quite a bit of criticism over AS making unscheduled westbound fuel stops as a result of the Pineapple Express. Although both airlines operate the ETOPS 738, WN would be even more prone to this issue thanks to their all-Y layout and generous baggage policy.

BUR/SNA-Hawaii: Maybe when the 737MAX arrives. AQ had notorious problems operating out of BUR with the 2-class 73G, WN's all-Y 738s wouldn't stand a chance. Apparently the 73G was profitable on SNA-Hawaii (for AQ, but not UA!), but the larger, all-Y 738 would have to take prohibitive restrictions to reach Hawaii. Too bad Orange County didn't just shut down SNA and develop El Toro. As for BUR, the NIMBY's would throw a hissy fit if they added an inch to the runway, let alone enough pavement to support profitable nonstop service to Hawaii  .

So, that leaves us with the following WN gateways to Hawaii: OAK, LAX, SAN, probably SMF and SJC, perhaps even ONT. The Northern California markets will offer great O&D and seamless connectivity to key markets like SEA, PDX, SNA, and BUR. The Southern California markets will offer great O&D and seamless connectivity to key markets like LAS, PHX, and Texas. I don't think they'll bother doing SFO-Hawaii directly against UA, not to mention VX, which is also in the process of getting ETOPS to support future Hawaiian service.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2012-05-09 23:52:21 and read 2642 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 74):

Do VX 319's/320's have the range?

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-05-09 23:54:41 and read 2648 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 75):
Do VX 319's/320's have the range?

Yes, however A319s are better suited than the A320s from a capability perspective.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2012-05-10 00:03:04 and read 2641 times.

Quoting Bluewave 707 (Reply 70):

Since WN pretty much runs ONT ... they could even fly out of there to offset some of the LAX congestion ...

Not to the extent they dominate MDW, but WN does have over half the traffic and 25% of the gates.

HA tried it in the early 90s, but with a L1011 4x weekly. ATA flew the 738 MDW-ONT-HNL from 2007 until around the time they closed up. It may be a better fit for WN than the others due to its longtime presence in the market. The runways are long, the airport isn't crowded, WN's gates are near the departure end so the taxi times are short, and the only other carrier to Hawai'i is UPS.

The problem is the limited inbound flights that could make connections. Almost all arrivals are from PHX, LAX, or northern California. On the positive side, WN already has the gate capacity because they are down to 32 flights where they once had 60+.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 52):
I could see them keeping the ETOPS 800's close to the west coast, instead of through flights

Makes sense keeping the ETOPS aircraft where they are needed, with maybe some shuttling between Northern and Southern California. Maybe there could be a purpose for add-ons to ELP or ABQ to pick up passengers connecting from DAL.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-10 00:05:28 and read 2642 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 73):
Hey RWA', I should probably stay out of this but I think EA CO AS was specifically talking about your suggestion of WN flying between SEA and PDX (as tag-ons to HI flights.)

There is no question (in my mind) that WN will continue almost all of their HNL-mainland flights on to points-beyond (such as HNL-LAX-PHX, OGG-SAN-BWI, HNL-OAK-MDW, or whatever.) In addition, connection opportunities (involving change-of-planes) will obviously be offered with WN's usual scheduling style. That's just the way they do it.

Hey Bob, I get it, but IMO, WN won't be flying same plane flights with ETOPS aircraft to BWI, MDW, HOU or the east at all, at least for quite awhile. I think WN is going to try and maximize it's ETOPS fleet to cover the amount of Hawaii flights they will be starting from the west coast. I again, doubt WN will touch PDX or SEA from HI directly, but Hawaii flights may have change of gauge back east but those ETOPS planes will stay close to the west coast once Hawaii service begins.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2012-05-10 07:29:13 and read 2478 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 77):
Makes sense keeping the ETOPS aircraft where they are needed, with maybe some shuttling between Northern and Southern California
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 78):
IMO, WN won't be flying same plane flights with ETOPS aircraft to BWI, MDW, HOU or the east at all, at least for quite awhile. I think WN is going to try and maximize it's ETOPS fleet to cover the amount of Hawaii flights they will be starting from the west coast.

And I get it! That makes a lot of sense so I guess it will mostly be connections then....

bb

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: mcg
Posted 2012-05-10 12:20:33 and read 2380 times.

I think that WN will relatively quickly try to serve KOA and LIH in addition to OGG and HNL. The reason is that with no inter-line luggage transfer or codeshare with an inter-island carrier, they've got to fly to KOA and LIH to get their customers there. I don't think WN will simply want to ignore the segment of the Hawaii market on Kauai and the Big Island.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: atrude777
Posted 2012-05-10 12:46:21 and read 2341 times.

Quoting mcg (Reply 80):
The reason is that with no inter-line luggage transfer or codeshare with an inter-island carrier, they've got to fly to KOA and LIH to get their customers there.

Ahhh BUT...unless I am wrong, the new contract voted by the pilot bans domestic code sharing EXCEPT for Hawaii Intra Island routings.

So...that scenario you mentioned while normally would be valid may be tweaked due to the wording of the pilot contract.

Alex

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: Barney Captain
Posted 2012-05-10 12:47:17 and read 2340 times.

SurfandSnow is spot on.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-05-10 14:27:30 and read 2284 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 76):
Quoting usflyguy (Reply 75):Do VX 319's/320's have the range?
Yes, however A319s are better suited than the A320s from a capability perspective.

From another thread here on A.net regarding VX looking to hire an ETOPS certification manager, I read it will only be when VX gets the 320NEO that VX will be able to offer flights to Hawaii, as the current 319, 320's are not available currently with the proper ETOPS certification that is required to fly US Mainland to Hawaii, even from SFO. Sorry if I did not use the correct terminology, but the thought remains the same.  

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SkyCub
Posted 2012-05-10 17:52:31 and read 2180 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 62):
chances are when I'm invited to dress as a Sumo wrestler with a pineapple

Oh yes... and we cannot all wait for that.

 

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: CALPSAFltSkeds
Posted 2012-05-10 18:20:39 and read 2142 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 78):
Hey Bob, I get it, but IMO, WN won't be flying same plane flights with ETOPS aircraft to BWI, MDW, HOU or the east at all, at least for quite awhile. I think WN is going to try and maximize it's ETOPS fleet to cover the amount of Hawaii flights they will be starting from the west coast. I again, doubt WN will touch PDX or SEA from HI directly, but Hawaii flights may have change of gauge back east but those ETOPS planes will stay close to the west coast once Hawaii service begins.

One poster somewhere said WN was to get 33 738s this year. If that's the case, then it won't take long for WN to have enough aircraft to not have a change of gauge if they choose to. However, if they run through flights, turns at the other cities like MDW, BWI, STL, HOU, DEN, etc. may not work to have the aircraft turn back onto a Hawaiian 1-stop service. WN will schedule for efficiency, however, do they schedule change of aircraft at this time?
I expect WN to connect Hawaii via 1-stops to their major "FOCUS CITIES" connection points like, PHX, DEN, LAS, MDW, BWI, HOU.

[Edited 2012-05-10 18:21:01]

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2012-05-10 19:33:44 and read 2077 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 85):
I expect WN to connect Hawaii via 1-stops to their major "FOCUS CITIES" connection points like, PHX, DEN, LAS, MDW, BWI, HOU

Since the jury still seems to be out on whether the 738 can make it (or would be used by WN) nonstop between LAS/PHX and the Islands, it seems quite possible that WN might simply run the flights from Hawaii to the California gateways (SAN, LAX, OAK, or whatever) then directly on to PHX or LAS. They can simply turn there and return to the gateways and back to the Islands.

That way, WN will have direct flights to their large hubs of PHX and LAS -- with a single (short?) stop in California -- for lots of connecting possibilites, in addition to some connections available at the gateways. The ETOPS planes will also remain close to the coast as suggested in many posts.

There are of course tons of flights between each of the CA cities and both Vegas and PHX so tag-ons to the ocean-hops would be very easy. I can certainly see a nice set of 1,2 or 3 daily flights thru SAN, LAX and OAK, all terminating in Nevada or Arizona - probably from both HNL and Maui. Makes sense to me anyway...

bb

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: AADC10
Posted 2012-05-11 10:26:57 and read 1892 times.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 49):
Yes, there is stiff competition, but if you look at it strictly from a loads point of view, ALL the flights on UA, AA, DL are FULL.

Considering that the average legacy mainline systemwide load average is around 85%, almost all flights are full to everywhere. The 85% includes weekends, holidays and off hour flights so if you add in DBs and nonrevs, it is a rare that any flight has more than a couple of open seats. Even WN, which historically had much lower load factors than the legacies is catching up.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 74):
we know from AQ that the modern 737s (Classics as well as NGs) are not suited for interisland routes.

I do not know. What was the issue? I thought the problem was that AQ kept using those ancient and inefficient 732s long after almost every other airline in the world had retired them.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: aztrainer
Posted 2012-05-11 11:13:37 and read 1877 times.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 87):
I do not know. What was the issue? I thought the problem was that AQ kept using those ancient and inefficient 732s long after almost every other airline in the world had retired them.

The newer 737's did not reach high enough altitude or sit for long enough to allow the engine cores to cool down. They were experiencing a higher failure and rebuild scheme than with the 737-200. This is why Aloha Cargo still fly's the 200 on its ops and HA fly's the 717.

Topic: RE: WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii
Username: aloha73g
Posted 2012-05-11 12:03:12 and read 1835 times.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 87):

I do not know. What was the issue? I thought the problem was that AQ kept using those ancient and inefficient 732s long after almost every other airline in the world had retired them.
Quoting aztrainer (Reply 88):

The newer 737's did not reach high enough altitude or sit for long enough to allow the engine cores to cool down. They were experiencing a higher failure and rebuild scheme than with the 737-200. This is why Aloha Cargo still fly's the 200 on its ops and HA fly's the 717.

Exactly, the 737-200 was perfectly suited to Hawaii interisland operations. Quick flights with equally quick turns with each aircraft operating 16 or more flights in a day.

AQ tried -300s, -400s in the early 1990s & on a much smaller scale -700s in the 2000s. All had the same issues with the engines not having enough time to cool down either in cruise or on the ground. This is why AQ gave up their -300s and -400s and continued on with the -200.

Finding a mainline aircraft suited to these very specific conditions is not easy. It is why HA stuck with the DC-9s and will continue with the 717 for a looooong time. It is also why AQ never abandoned the 737-200....there just wasn't a suitable replacement and the large availability and low acquisition costs made it affordable enough to offset the increased fuel and maintenance costs (until go! came in and lowered the fares to an unsustainable level).

-Aloha!


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