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Topic: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: olddominion727
Posted 2012-06-14 19:24:49 and read 3679 times.

Hard not to notice all of the new service coming into the Hawaiian Islands from CA. HA serving SFO,OAK,SJC,SMF, AS serving SJC,OAK,SMF all to Hawaii...not to mention all of the legacy carriers that have been flying for years. First, I was wondering if WN was coming to the party too late since they are truly no longer a LCC. But then I really realized the focus should be on ULCC G4. Serving SCK, FAT, MRY, SMX not to mention the new LAS and BLI sprouts too. My main focus is CA in this question. I know Hawaii and Mexico will always be CA's #1 vacation spots. But the CA economy is still SO sluggish I don't think it's wise to serve these 4 airports? If you look at a map each city is about 175 miles from the other and the only one that has a large community within 50 miles is SMF/SCK. I don't think people from the Bay Area are going to be driving to MRY, FAT or even SCK, which leaves them all on their own. Not to mention SMX is kinda out there. Now SMX could work being between 2 college towns of SBA and SBP... SCK could even work with everyone from Placer County to Merced County, just not sure

Any thoughts??

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-14 20:32:09 and read 3555 times.

I've posted comments about these routes several times before but let me reiterate it. The numbers I quote are found in this spreadsheet about Hawaii visitors.
http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.or...hly-visitors/States%20by%20MSA.xls

Looking at historical travel from these areas to Hawaii, it appears Allegiant's 1 or 2 flight per week service is a match for the current market sizes.

Fresno? Bookings have already been strong enough that Allegiant added a second weekly flight starting in November. In 2011, the Fresno MSA sent 17,798 passengers to Hawaii (average of 342 per week). But there are other MSAs in the airport market area such as Merced MSA, Visalia/Tulare MSA and the Hanford MSA. So those additional markets will increase the potential number of passengers, unfortunately I do not have numbers of Hawaii visitors from those areas.

Stockton? Just from the Stockton MSA in 2011 there was a total of 18,163 outbound SCK to Hawaii in 2011, that is an average of about an average of 350 residents traveling each week to Hawaii. Additionally, the nearby Modesto MSA was 11,535 residents visiting Hawaii (avg of 222 per week). So from the Stockton and Modesto areas that is an average of 572 outbound to Hawaii per week. If G4 only capture 1/2 of that with a weekly non-stop they fill the plane. Then add in what they can draw from Sacramento or other areas and the market is even larger.

Monterey? That MSA had 13,107 travelers to Hawaii last year (about 252 per week). But the convenience of a local flight combined with a good net worth along the coast may grow that market. Monterey might be the only one that is small and lacks a larger area to draw from.

Santa Maria? Midway between both Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo (roughly 1 hour to either). So drawing from those 2 areas is what they see. Over 550 people from San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties combined flew each week to Hawaii last year (total of 29,564 in 2011). Capturing 1/2 of that fills the single nonstop that G4 has planned.

Now we have not even talked about market stimulation due to lower fares and non-stop flights for most of those routes. It will be interesting to see how much Allegiant grows the markets with non-stop flights.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: penguins
Posted 2012-06-14 21:00:49 and read 3491 times.

I have been trying to raise this point for months but I was repeatedly shunned. I do not see the point of serving areas like Fresno because while the city is large, it is also the foreclosure capital of the US. The majority of the Central Valley's residents work in the farming industry and farmers and farm workers who are in no economic state to take vacations. I just do not see a 757 filling up with passengers from farming communities. The folks from the big cities (LA and SF), if they are taking vacations, would not travel 175 miles to get a better rate.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: F9animal
Posted 2012-06-14 21:18:23 and read 3445 times.

G4 has flexibility in its court. If the route does not work, they will try something different. I think G4 will do pretty well actually.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-06-14 21:38:17 and read 3410 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):
I do not see the point of serving areas like Fresno because while the city is large, it is also the foreclosure capital of the US.

But there is still enough demand for the *tiny* number of weekly flights.

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):
it is also the foreclosure capital of the US.

I thought that was Las Vegas. Seriously. And LAS still has demand for traffic. Demand from these airports isn't extremely high. Today they will not support a daily. Please see FatFlyer's post.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 1):
Over 550 people from San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties combined flew each week to Hawaii last year (total of 29,564 in 2011). Capturing 1/2 of that fills the single nonstop that G4 has planned.

IMHO, G4 is going to nicely stimulate that market. Those markets have money. I know enough frugal people with money to imagine G4 will do extremely well. IMHO Santa Maria will be the market that grows first.

Quoting F9animal (Reply 3):

G4 has flexibility in its court. If the route does not work, they will try something different.

   They've also proven to be very adaptive to seasonal variation too.


Serious question, is there a chance G4 will start doing multi leg flights (one aircraft) to Hawaii to boost the traffic?

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 1):
Now we have not even talked about market stimulation due to lower fares and non-stop flights for most of those routes. It will be interesting to see how much Allegiant grows the markets with non-stop flights.

I expect that will be the real drive. Some of these markets might not do well. IMHO, G4 needs to keep buying more ETOPS 752s... As many of these communities will have customers who would rather fly out of the airports selected than go to the 'big airport.' I have trouble imagining less than 50% market stimulation (average among these airports) within a year of service initiation.

Lightsaber.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-14 21:41:14 and read 3408 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):
I do not see the point of serving areas like Fresno because while the city is large, it is also the foreclosure capital of the US.

No, while foreclosures are high around Fresno it is not the worse for foreclosures in the US. This heat map of foreclosures in California for May has the Inland Empire area of Southern California and areas south of Sacramento as being worse for foreclosures than Fresno and its surrounding areas. Heck, the foreclosure rate in Atlanta is now running higher than the rate in Fresno.
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca-trend.html

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):
The majority of the Central Valley's residents work in the farming industry and farmers and farm workers who are in no economic state to take vacations.

The majority? Sorry again you are overstating it. Agriculture is an important industry but does not represent the majority of the area employment. Farm employment at the seasonal high is only about 10 to 12% of county employment. Nearly 90% of the region's jobs are in non-ag industries.

And economics is the same reasoning some said this area could not support international flights. Yet Volaris and Aeromexico keep filling flights FAT-GDL. FYI, Romney just did a $25,000 per plate fundraising lunch in Fresno. That is a lot of money for lunch from a bunch of farmers in "no economic state" to fly.

Don't forget, Allegiant started with the announcement of a single weekly FAT-HNL but has now announced it will increase to 2X per week in November. Someone in this area apparently has money to be buying tickets to Hawaii.  

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-14 21:51:12 and read 3393 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
They've also proven to be very adaptive to seasonal variation too.

That seasonal adaptation is already in the Hawaii schedules. G4 has added additional Hawaii sections for the end of the year. SCK, SMX, and EUG will all operate 2X per week between Dec 16 and Jan 12.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
IMHO, G4 needs to keep buying more ETOPS 752s...

Supposedly they are kicking tires on more aircraft. The first 6 were to see how they fit Allegiant's model. They've been happy with the aircraft so far in/out of LAS. Now they want more to expand the fleet and also for domestic flights beyond the MD range.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: WhatUsaid
Posted 2012-06-14 21:52:33 and read 3391 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):

I have been trying to raise this point for months but I was repeatedly shunned. I do not see the point of serving areas like Fresno because while the city is large, it is also the foreclosure capital of the US. The majority of the Central Valley's residents work in the farming industry and farmers and farm workers who are in no economic state to take vacations. I just do not see a 757 filling up with passengers from farming communities. The folks from the big cities (LA and SF), if they are taking vacations, would not travel 175 miles to get a better rate.

You clearly don't know Fresno and the realities of the Ag industry. Your characterization of faming is not correct at all. I can speak of some certainty due to my being in this industry for nearly 25 years. There's big money in farming, even in this economy.

If farmworkers and their families have no dollars, then, why is Y4 and AM packing them in nightly to GDL? Why has Y4 now added second sections on peak days to where there are now three departures to GDL between 11 and 3am? Perhaps because FAT is a regional draw from Modesto to Bakersfield?

To the point of Hawaii, the number of people who make the drive to SFO or LAX for Hawaii flights far out distances the number who actually board in Fresno and connect. That was learned when when the Fresno business community and the airport teamed on market research years ago. When there were charters before between FAT and HNL weekly, the flights were packed.

The only real challenge to G4 is whether they find the right price point. As I'd noted in another thread, G4 took the airfare only up to where there was parity between FAT-HNL and that out of the Bay Area on AS and the others. Granted, airfare only traffic isn't their model, but the fares have come down to a level that one would expect to see from G4.

As to SCK, that airport will pull from the Tri-Valley and there's no shortage of dollars there.

G4 has no interest in attracting someone who is 175 miles away to one of their secondary airports. I wouldn't be surprised to see people driving 100 miles or more from the many smaller communities, which taken in the aggregate, could easily contribute to 30% or more of the total traffic on these flights.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-06-14 22:00:20 and read 3374 times.

It's a lot more seats than an M80, and a lot more fuel, for vacation packages that are a lot more expensive than LAS--I'm happy to be proven wrong but I'd say this will be a tough market to crack.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: QXatFAT
Posted 2012-06-14 22:21:08 and read 3336 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 5):

   BINGO!

Quoting WhatUsaid (Reply 7):

   BINGO #2!

Quoting WhatUsaid (Reply 7):
You clearly don't know Fresno and the realities of the Ag industry. Your characterization of faming is not correct at all. I can speak of some certainty due to my being in this industry for nearly 25 years. There's big money in farming, even in this economy.

   Many actually don't know the Ag industry much at all, especially the Ag industry in the valley. With Fresno County, Madera County, Merced County, and Tulare County, there is much wealth within them to warrant the travel. While the dairy industry is currently down, much of the other crop industry is way up. Almonds, figs, pistachios, and vine fruit have been at high cash value for quite awhile now. With these things making up a bulk of the crop Ag industry, there is money to be had. Shoot, they have the World Ag Expo in tiny Tulare! Money is here folks.

During the down time when crops are done being harvested, that is when the families start their vacations to such places as Hawaii. On top of that, Fresno is on pace to have its best year ever in travel out of FAT if I am not mistaken?

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):

You probably should have read every other thread about G4 and HNL before starting this. FATFlyer and WhatUsaid have been a broken record for all the nay sayers and doubters. I guess facts presented are never good enough.

FATFlyer, I have moved from FAT now for a year and sadly am missing out on this happy occasion. I fly home about 6 times a year out of PDX so maybe I can catch one! Outside of that...what do you think are some possibilities of BFL getting a flight? Do you think that G4 is thinking that they will make the drive to LAX instead of using their own airport?

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-06-14 22:42:54 and read 3280 times.

The numbers are only a guide because Allegiant is greatly going to stimulate the demand. They will also steal quite a few people who may be a ways away. say a family who works in the oil industry in Bakersfield they probably use to drive from Bakersfield to LAX now they might use Fresno on Allegiant instead since its so much easier drive, easier airport and less traffic and parkings easier quicker etc.

Allegiant is using its same already successful model and just using Hawaii as the destination. The small markets are possible for allegiants model of less frequent service and greatly stimulating demand. People are drawn in by how cheap they airfares are and make their money on the packages. I gurantee you ever single city local news mentioned the HNL service and thousands of people in each market went to allegiant.com to really see if airfares are that low. Allegiant isnt really risking too much here if some cities fail they are not investing alot or will be flying totally empty planes with once a week frequency.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-14 22:53:58 and read 3259 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 8):
It's a lot more seats than an M80, and a lot more fuel, for vacation packages that are a lot more expensive than LAS--I'm happy to be proven wrong but I'd say this will be a tough market to crack.

As I pointed out, for most of these routes Allegiant only needs to capture about 1/2 of the existing traffic away from connections (or driveaway traffic to LAX/SFO/SJC/OAK/SMF). The numbers in the spreadsheet above are by MSA not airport so the potential passengers are there. The non-stops should have appeal to pull traffic and if Allegiant can price well it should not be a problem.

Quoting QXatFAT (Reply 9):
On top of that, Fresno is on pace to have its best year ever in travel out of FAT if I am not mistaken?

Yep. FAT in 2011 was only about 100,000 passengers lower than the peak year of 2007. This year has new flights to HNL and SAN plus the GDL flights only operated the last 8 months of 2011. So 2012 should easily set a new record for passenger traffic.

Quoting QXatFAT (Reply 9):
FATFlyer, I have moved from FAT now for a year and sadly am missing out on this happy occasion. I fly home about 6 times a year out of PDX so maybe I can catch one! Outside of that...what do you think are some possibilities of BFL getting a flight? Do you think that G4 is thinking that they will make the drive to LAX instead of using their own airport?

BFL has been a tough nut for any airline to crack. It is close enough to LAX/BUR/etc to lose a lot of passengers south. Allegiant tried LAS but it didn't work so I don't know how that would influence their thoughts about BFL. 1X per week on BFL-HNL might be possible (the existing traffic is similar to MRY) but I don't know if they could get more than that out of the metro area.

However, the existing oil industry around Bakersfield is starting to boom again. Additionally, the Monterey Shale formation along I-5 from Bakersfield to Coalinga in Fresno County is estimated at about 4 times the potential production of Bakken in Montana/Dakota. If the Monterey Shale formation starts production there could be a lot more oil related jobs and money in the Central Valley in the future.

I have some guesses about other new cities to Hawaii besides BFL that may be announced by the end of the year. But I'm going to wait on that right now.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: olddominion727
Posted 2012-06-15 10:06:04 and read 2979 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 2):

I absolutely agree, but I guess we'll have to see  

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: olddominion727
Posted 2012-06-15 10:16:12 and read 2948 times.

Question though... when these flights get fogged in either direction, what is G4 responsibility? what are their alternate stations if Fog becomes too much?

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-06-15 10:51:57 and read 2879 times.

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 13):
Question though... when these flights get fogged in either direction, what is G4 responsibility? what are their alternate stations if Fog becomes too much?

What, are you asking about alternates for SCK, MRY and FAT?

I would assume that SJC, OAK, SMF, ONT, BFL and LAX would all be suitable alternates if they were unable to land at their destination airports for whatever reason.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-15 11:30:28 and read 2814 times.

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 13):
Question though... when these flights get fogged in either direction, what is G4 responsibility? what are their alternate stations if Fog becomes too much?

Fog, like snow and ice or thunderstorms in other parts of the country is nothing new to Allegiant ops or any airline. Remember G4 already operates from all of these cities to destinations like LAS, AZA, etc.

With stations at OAK, LAX and LAS G4 likely will divert to one of those. If needed I expect they then bus passengers to the final destination in Central California.

UA and other airlines also bus Central California passengers sometimes due to weather problems. I've been stuck on more than one bus/van over the years on other airlines out of LAX/SFO. So if Allegiant decides to do it that is nothing unusual.

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 12):
I absolutely agree, but I guess we'll have to see

Hhhmmm. I'm not sure why people ignore the fact that farm employment is only 10%-12% of the employment in this area. I guess that other 88%-90% of jobs in healthcare, manufacturing, education, etc just doesn't exist.

Also not sure how people explain all of the $500 FAT-GDL tickets being sold in this area (similar to Allegiant's Hawaii RT fare). The FAT-GDL route is now up to 2 or 3 daily flights, maybe those passengers drive from LA or SF to board in Fresno since everyone here is poor?      

I expect with only 1 or 2 flights per week the Hawaii routes will be fine, if they were operating daily I would think G4 was crazy. But this frequency should match the market sizes.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-06-15 12:09:28 and read 2737 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 11):
if Allegiant can price well it should not be a problem.

That's what I was getting at. G4's average fare currently is around $250rt all in, which is still pretty cheap by any standard. Hawaii probably needs to be $250 each way, before you start adding hotels which aren't cheap either, so the ability to 'stimulate' demand is not going to be as easy as say, Montana-LAS.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-06-15 12:30:38 and read 2693 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 15):
I expect with only 1 or 2 flights per week the Hawaii routes will be fine, if they were operating daily I would think G4 was crazy. But this frequency should match the market sizes.

Exactly. People ever since this annoucnement are acting like allegiant is attempting to operate daily 757 service from these airports to hawaii. Once a week frequency is ideal and almost all of the travlers are vacationers and a week is pretty much exactly what they want anway. This is not a route that people are traveling for the weekend or anything like like that. They wont loose that much by the once a week frequency and i bet people will be shocked how far people drive to these flights. They wont take travelers who live right near LAX but they will get people who were driving to LAX. Like alot of allegiant destinations you will see a mini full of a family of six unload and drive in for their big once ever few years trip over and over at Fresno and all of these airports. I bet you airport parking at all these airports soars in demand often seen at the allegiant airports since alot of leisure, decent length travelers, and often airports with less mass transit options

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-15 12:43:43 and read 2674 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
That's what I was getting at. G4's average fare currently is around $250rt all in, which is still pretty cheap by any standard. Hawaii probably needs to be $250 each way, before you start adding hotels which aren't cheap either, so the ability to 'stimulate' demand is not going to be as easy as say, Montana-LAS.

But lets look at what they are competing against.

Fares on other airlines FAT-HNL run $800 to $1000 RT this summer for a one week stay (I just checked several different online booking sources). That is not unusual pricing in this market.

Allegiant's one way fares (no bundled hotel) for this summer on FAT-HNL are currently $159 to $359. The dates offered makes it hard to put together two of the $159's so G4 is probably easily getting your $500 RT.

But that is still $300 or more lower than other airlines per ticket.

Using the spreadsheet numbers I posted before, the other airlines last year with their higher pricing still generated many more passengers than the capacity G4 is putting in.

Stimulation due to fares/nonstops may not be as high as LAS flights, but that price differential is definitely going to stimulate a lot of traffic to Hawaii. I would not be surprised to see more families to HNL due to the fare savings.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-06-15 13:23:53 and read 2596 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 6):
G4 has added additional Hawaii sections for the end of the year. SCK, SMX, and EUG will all operate 2X per week between Dec 16 and Jan 12.

I'm amazed how conservative G4 can be. Who else manages markets in 200 seats/week incriments? CO with the E135?   I'm not exactly seeing G4 jumping off a cliff here at their ramp rate of flights... We normally discuss increases in daily flights here on a.net, not an extra weekly flight... Very low risk and it fits into G4's adaptive model. I believe you get it, others are reacting as if G4 just launched 49 weekly flights to Hawaii.   

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 6):
Supposedly they are kicking tires on more aircraft. The first 6 were to see how they fit Allegiant's model. They've been happy with the aircraft so far in/out of LAS. Now they want more to expand the fleet and also for domestic flights beyond the MD range.

Good to hear. Is Allergiant buying one engine or both Pratt and RR?

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 5):
Don't forget, Allegiant started with the announcement of a single weekly FAT-HNL but has now announced it will increase to 2X per week in November. Someone in this area apparently has money to be buying tickets to Hawaii.

That burning growth rate!     

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
Hawaii probably needs to be $250 each way, before you start adding hotels which aren't cheap either, so the ability to 'stimulate' demand is not going to be as easy as say, Montana-LAS.

I expect most of the stimulation to be via convienience rather than fare. The low intro fares are just to create some 'buzz.' In the long run, G4 might be a little cheaper (barely after bag fees) but will still gain customers by avoiding a connection.

Its also possible to priceline some nice hotels in Hawaii. I expect G4 to be popular with those that Priceline. They'll look for discount hotels and at G4's fares and book accordingly. A cheap fare combined with discounted hotels will promote quite a few one week Hawaii trips. I know we (ok, my wife) has planned hawaii trips on the combination of pricelined hotel fees and airfares. There are enough web sites to find out what hotels are going for on Priceline to extimate within $20/day.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 18):
But that is still $300 or more lower than other airlines per ticket.

As I noted above, I think these fares are to draw attention. Once more people know about them, the 'no stop' option will allow near parity in total fees.

Let's also not forget G4's anxillary revenue model... I'm under the impression most of their profit is the non-flight offerings.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 17):
People ever since this annoucnement are acting like allegiant is attempting to operate daily 757 service from these airports to hawaii.

That is my take too. G4 is unusually adaptive in frequency. They will ramp from 1x/week to multiple daily flights (but with day to day variation) as demand warrants. They do better than the competition in variable demand markets or less than daily frequency demand.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2012-06-15 14:16:15 and read 2529 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
We normally discuss increases in daily flights here on a.net, not an extra weekly flight... Very low risk and it fits into G4's adaptive model. I believe you get it, others are reacting as if G4 just launched 49 weekly flights to Hawaii.

Yep, the entire WEEKLY November schedule will be:
LAS-HNL - 3x per week
FAT-HNL - 2X per week
BLI-HNL - 2X per week
BLI-OGG - 2X per week
SCK-HNL - 1X per week
SMX-HNL - 1X per week
EUG-HNL - 1X per week
MRY-HNL - 1X per week

Total roundtrips = 13 per week

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):

Good to hear. Is Allergiant buying one engine or both Pratt and RR?

I don't know for sure but have to expect that since the existing 6 operating aircraft have RB211's they will be shopping for more with RRs. They have 1 additional 757 parked to cannibalize for parts so they will likely look for commonality.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-06-15 14:44:18 and read 2479 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 20):
Total roundtrips = 13 per week

Obviously over-estimating demand.   I mean, 13 flights during peak season! err... 13 weekly flights. From 7 mainland airports too!

Mostly for others:
Part of why I'm defending G4 is that I *couldn't* understand their profits with MD-80s. I mean, who makes money with MD-80s.    So I read about more about their opperations. How they will cut flights on days that wouldn't be profitable and often park aircraft or utilize them to alternate markets. They usually enter a market with less than daily flights and then grow.

G4 is also big on fragmentation. They start by brining tourists to a destination but then become a darling of the 'destination city' once the route map fills up to esoteric destinations that before required a connection. Its easy to 'fragment' with 1x/week flights.    However, over the years those 1x/week flights grow.

I'm also impressed with how well they handle seasonal demand with the fraction of their fleet that is parked cycling dramatically. While this must be tough for crew pay, G4 is exceptional at cutting costs. None of this 'fly on a Wednesday despite low demand' thinking.

I don't fly Allergiant due to their baggage fees, but that is by economic choice. With young kids, its almost always cheaper to fly on another airline. Cest la vie. I have friends and cousins sans children who love them when traveling light they can be very reasonable.

I also see, like U2, FR, and others that G4 makes most of their money off anxillary revenue. Low costs with side revenue will help them grow.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 20):
I don't know for sure but have to expect that since the existing 6 operating aircraft have RB211's they will be shopping for more with RRs.

I expect you're correct. But as a Pratt fan, I could hope.

Ps, I agree with the Mark Twain quote. Its a good choice for signature.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: crj900lr
Posted 2012-06-15 18:46:08 and read 2320 times.

LNS is in talks with G4 for twice weekly service to SFB. I seriously doubt it will happen but i guess they think its worth a shot to see what they say.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: jeb94
Posted 2012-06-15 21:24:52 and read 2202 times.

People keep trying to compare G4 to the major airlines and the classic hub and spoke x number of flights per day, every day models. Apples and oranges people. G4 doesn't do business like any other airline out there and what G4 does works for G4. you can't think of G4 the same as you would a Southwest or Delta or even Spirit. There may be a few flights a week between city pairs rather than a few flights a day. Those flights are carefully placed to try and take best advantage of aircraft availability and the hours and days most passengers would want to fly to particular destinations. I'm being a bit general but folks a lot smarter than me at such things are scheduling and marketing this. I've seen it grow for eight years at a rapid pace and have come to trust that they know what they're doing.

Topic: RE: Is G4 Over Estimating Central CA-Hawaii
Username: QXatFAT
Posted 2012-06-16 18:19:28 and read 1924 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 11):
Yep. FAT in 2011 was only about 100,000 passengers lower than the peak year of 2007. This year has new flights to HNL and SAN plus the GDL flights only operated the last 8 months of 2011. So 2012 should easily set a new record for passenger traffic.

Thank you for the confirmation FATFlyer. With the additions of the much demanded SAN flight return, and additional GDL, Fresno is starting to get the attention that has been much needed. Could possibly bring back the ATL talks with DL.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 11):
BFL has been a tough nut for any airline to crack. It is close enough to LAX/BUR/etc to lose a lot of passengers south. Allegiant tried LAS but it didn't work so I don't know how that would influence their thoughts about BFL. 1X per week on BFL-HNL might be possible (the existing traffic is similar to MRY) but I don't know if they could get more than that out of the metro area.

   I didn't know if that G4 would try to tap into this market as well seeing the lack of service there. I find it hard to believe still that people would drive from BFL to FAT to fly to HNL although my dad being the weird guy he is, has driven to BFL to fly out to Michigan to visit me in college because he found a cheap fare. Who knows!

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 11):
However

Very interesting. This could be great news then for people in the Central Valley. With the west side drying up due to our dear liberal green fingered friends in the bay area and L.A., it could be a nice boom for the area. I could see flights to HOU then!

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 15):
I guess that other 88%-90% of jobs in healthcare, manufacturing, education, etc just doesn't exist.

Part of those numbers though rely on the agriculture side of business. Such as my company that works in manufacturing for animal nutrition, the manufacturing of tomato harvesters, tractor retailers, and so forth. So I would guess the number is a log bigger. To say "Ag" in a general term is a lot bigger than the 10%. Farm labor would be at that but many of the industry here is directly tied to that Ag industry.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
As I noted above, I think these fares are to draw attention. Once more people know about them, the 'no stop' option will allow near parity in total fees.

  


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