Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5578066/

Topic: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: questions
Posted 2012-10-02 22:55:21 and read 11664 times.

After DL conquers New York with it's LGA expansion and new JFK facilities, which market will be its next? Granted there is a lot of operational work to get the dual hub system working and a ton of marketing efforts to get the revenue stream on target. Just wondering what they might go after next. What holes could DL reasonably shore up in its network. Which current alliance partners could indicate an underserved opportunity? What will be the next strategic push?

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-02 23:04:27 and read 11658 times.

Well given the fact that their earnings have grown significantly, you think they may re-add flights to CVG again? I've heard people tell me that the lobbying for more service out of CVG has been upped since these profitability reports have come out. In particular, service to larger cities which has been shed by the cuts is being lobbied strongly by the greater Cincy business community. According to my dad though it's fallen upon deaf ears- until now. You think after they're done expanding at NYC they'll begin adding back to CVG?

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: spiritair97
Posted 2012-10-02 23:06:39 and read 11638 times.

Personally, I think Milwaukee, seeing as they already announced that they would have a greater presence there. Probably not a hub, but maybe a focus city.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-02 23:17:02 and read 11600 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
According to my dad though it's fallen upon deaf ears- until now. You think after they're done expanding at NYC they'll begin adding back to CVG?

As it is, DL is pitting LGA against CVG. I don't see them "reviving" anything. There are more and more connection opportunities being offered through LGA that traditionally flew through CVG.

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 3):
Personally, I think Milwaukee, seeing as they already announced that they would have a greater presence there. Probably not a hub, but maybe a focus city.

MKE is small potatoes. DL saw an opportunity to swallow a very large portion of passengers that had no where to go with the continued downfall of F9 and WN's continued draw-down of FL's "hub" shifting capacity to MDW. Very smart move but dont read too much into what DL's doing there.

Quoting questions (Thread starter):

Ive said it before and i'll say it again. Once the Concrete Jungle dust settles after 2013, I think DL will refocus on LAX in a bigger way than they have. Marketing wise, it's sort of taken a back seat to the money being dumped into NYC and key European markets. Namely LHR. Having their PR so focused was genius IMHO. They're slowly making strides in LAX although on a small low-key scale. The big sponsorships have been in place for a while. The T5 check-in lobby and gates are currently getting a much needed face-lift that will be ongoing through next year. The network is O.K. They are flying to where people want to go and although very quiet about it, some time back, LAX went all two-class. There are no scheduled 50 seater flights though LAX on DL. They've also been hinting that LatAm and South America will be the new battleground.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: OzarkD9S
Posted 2012-10-02 23:21:48 and read 11591 times.

They have NYC sewed up for now. My guess is LAX. That is their "must have" weak spot in Skyteam mode.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: BDL757
Posted 2012-10-02 23:54:59 and read 11502 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):

I agree. I feel that both LAX and South/Latin America is the next thing on the 'to do' list. It'll be interesting to see if they start to build up each area simultaneously or not. Most of the "highlights" on dlnet have been about different media/PR events going on in South America and improvements being made in LAX so it's clear they are gearing up for something.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-02 23:59:02 and read 11486 times.

Quoting BDL757 (Reply 6):
I agree. I feel that both LAX and South/Latin America is the next thing on the 'to do' list.

With AA in shambles, I smell a MIA hub takeover soon   

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: alitalia744
Posted 2012-10-03 00:04:26 and read 11455 times.

Los Angeles

FILL

FILL

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 00:35:10 and read 11380 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):
I think DL will refocus on LAX in a bigger way than they have...They've also been hinting that LatAm and South America will be the new battleground.

DL's already pursued LAX unsuccessfully (inaugurating & dropping BDL, RDU, GRU, etc.; even classic markets such as MEX were dumped). Like any other market, LAX will continue to be tinkered with, but I strongly doubt there will be a "big" focus. As it is, the development of NYC and re-creation of the network (with larger jets) are two daunting tasks that will suck capital for years.

Focusing on LatAm & South America from JFK would suck even additional funds. The two markets are largely tapped out from ATL, and DL isn't going to be pursing a FLL/MIA strategy. Development takes time and MIA has too many constraints - not to mention exploding costs within the next few years that would make any venture into S.FL risky.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: usdcaguy
Posted 2012-10-03 02:48:17 and read 11182 times.

The problem with LAX is that there is little corporate traffic in that area compared to other cities up the coast. Unlike SFO, it does not have the big IT firms to help drive business to Asia, so I'm not sure where the growth will come from. Also, there are so many carriers in LAX competing for both domestic and international business that I'm not sure if new flights (especially domestic) would be that profitable. It seems to me that it might be better for DL to focus on maximizing the flights it has out of NYC and ensuring they are getting the premium business. That might be a more profitable use of resources than a new investment in LAX, especially if those efforts were to attract a lot of low fares that trash yields.

As far as new cities go, I see DL continuing to build its presence in SEA and PDX (what it will do with AS is up in the air). It could also consider strengthening its position at RDU. Those markets are likely more profitable than LAX, although I'm not sure it has had that much luck out of RDU beyond its hub flying.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-03 03:49:43 and read 11068 times.

The reason DL is so profitable is because they cut flights in places like CVG, LAX and MEM. Adding flights to those cities and adding MKE just makes DL unprofitable again.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: NWAESC
Posted 2012-10-03 04:21:24 and read 10984 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
you think they may re-add flights to CVG again?

I personally don't see it happening. I think they've got CVG optimized to about where it needs to be as far as meeting traffic needs. As others have noted, a lot of the flying that was once done ex- CVG is now done thorugh other hubs.

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 3):
Personally, I think Milwaukee, seeing as they already announced that they would have a greater presence there.

Maybe a targeted new city or two, and an increase in A/C size, but not much else. JMHO...

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-10-03 05:15:07 and read 10796 times.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
They have NYC sewed up for now

UA serves 7 million more passengers per year in the NYC market then DL.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-10-03 05:36:33 and read 10723 times.

I agree that Delta is like to focus more energy in coming years on LAX and Latin America, although I question how successful they will be at either.

LAX is going to be an uphill climb because that market is just like New York - huge, but highly fragmented with several other very large, strong players, but unlike New York Delta cannot realistically "buy" their market share as they have done to some extent in New York with the slot swap.

In Latin America, I think Delta is going to try and do what every U.S. airline has done, which is to further develop their business in one of the fastest-growing and economically strongest regions in the world in recent years. The challenge I think they will face, however, is that I see little potential for organic growth in ATL beyond the already-substantial growth Delta has had there in the last 10-15 years, which leaves growth from other markets, but all of those other hypothetical markets (like JFK, LAX or, as some on A.net regularly suggest, MIA) area also highly competitive.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 13):
UA serves 7 million more passengers per year in the NYC market then DL.

Exactly. 20% of a market constitutes having it "sewn up," especially when another competitor has 25% market share and two others both have more than 10% each?

  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-10-03 05:47:29 and read 10684 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 14):
Exactly. 20% of a market constitutes having it "sewn up," especially when another competitor has 25% market share and two others both have more than 10% each?

Total passengers (EWR, JFK, LGA, SWF)

UA:
27,7121885

DL:
21,029,698

B6:
14,235,512

AA:
14,216,525


EWR, JFK, LGA, SWF ranking by cargo ton:

FX:
514,247

UPS:
176,904

AA:
120,415

UA:
103,964

DL:
99,480

LH:
78,950

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2012-10-03 05:53:05 and read 10653 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 7):
With AA in shambles, I smell a MIA hub takeover soon  

That was my thought right out of the gate as well.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2012-10-03 05:57:29 and read 10639 times.

I believe that Delta will build up Boston because of a couple of reasons ie, outstanding facility and Delta's historical strength in Boston

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-03 06:10:11 and read 10574 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 17):

Again the reason DL is profitable is because theyve abandon places like BOS as focus cities. Expand in BOS and take on JetBlue and Delta loses money. Delta should just keep doing what they're doing and ignore a.net advice and predictions.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: panamair
Posted 2012-10-03 06:18:09 and read 10530 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 13):
UA serves 7 million more passengers per year in the NYC market then DL

That gap obviously does not yet reflect the full result of the US-DL slot swap.

[Edited 2012-10-03 06:24:21]

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-03 06:22:55 and read 10503 times.

Quoting panamair (Reply 19):

The slot swap isn't worth 7m pax in volume. Yes Delta will go up but the slot swap won't get them past UA

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: panamair
Posted 2012-10-03 06:26:10 and read 10480 times.

Quoting Bobloblaw (Reply 19):
The slot swap isn't worth 7m pax in volume. Yes Delta will go up but the slot swap won't get them past UA

Nobody said it was going to get them past UA, but the gap should narrow to around 4 million+ when all is said and done.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: commavia
Posted 2012-10-03 06:26:23 and read 10481 times.

Quoting panamair (Reply 18):
That gap obviously does not reflect the result of the US-DL slot swap.

True, but even with that, Delta still likely won't be as large as United, and JetBlue and AA will still both have substantial market share in New York. Nobody is debating that Delta's market share in New York has been, and is, growing, but calling the market "sewn up" for Delta is just not factual.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 06:44:51 and read 10378 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):
As it is, DL is pitting LGA against CVG. I don't see them "reviving" anything. There are more and more connection opportunities being offered through LGA that traditionally flew through CVG.
Quoting NWAESC (Reply 12):
I personally don't see it happening. I think they've got CVG optimized to about where it needs to be as far as meeting traffic needs. As others have noted, a lot of the flying that was once done ex- CVG is now done thorugh other hubs.

These are the keys to CVG's coffin being nailed shut - that flying has been replaced by substitute hubs that work just as well if not better for them (esp. DTW, but also spread across the others). Of course DL COULD go back and add flights, but I think substantial additions are out of the question because they've simply gone so far away from that at this point. Shuttering OH is yet another indication. In other words, DL has moved on after the "breakup" with CVG, and has learned how to live without them.

Now all of that said, more service from other carriers is a definite possibility. It will be very interesting to watch how this plays out between the incumbents and new entrants (the long-rumored "inevitable" WN arrival, possible B6, etc.). The key as a CVG fan is to realize that CVG is not and will not be a focus city or otherwise a major station for anyone. However, the future is most certainly looking bright, as DL's stranglehold has been broken, and we are likely to see additional service and new carriers going forward. Eventually CVG will become much more like CMH, where there isn't a hegemonic carrier, but where the overall service offered is excellent and diverse across carriers. But that is a good thing for us. I've said this before and I'll say it again: DL's pulldown leaves numerous opportunities for other carriers to begin making inroads on various routes like DCA, SFO, PHX, ORD, etc. where DL is relatively less strong than LGA, LAX, BOS, and the like.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 7):
With AA in shambles, I smell a MIA hub takeover soon

This was mentioned the other day by someone on here, but the truth is that MIA (both the market and the airport itself) has enough spare capacity for someone else to step up a focus city or minihub anytime they want. It would just take a little effort to do so. Not to say it isn't necessarily more likely due to bk and distraction at AA, but there hasn't been and isn't still anything stopping someone else from doing so.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-10-03 06:52:18 and read 10332 times.

THere was a long debate in another thread about it ....but MIA MIA MIA......DL wants it bad. Personally, i think they will make a move on it if at all possible, in addition to slowly expanding LAX....
NYC gives them Europe, MIA will give them LatAm/Caribbean and Africa, LAX will give them Asia.....ATL, SLC, DTW and MSP take care of the domestic with some overflow international. And CVG gives them a little gravy.
THat to me sounds like a nice well rounded plan that can withstand shock events that don't involve the entire world. FOr example, crisis in Europe? Lat Am keep the profit going. Asian SARS....Europe keeps DL afloat.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
They've also been hinting that LatAm and South America will be the new battleground.

It already is.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: OOer
Posted 2012-10-03 07:09:29 and read 10239 times.

My guess is that DL will focus on SEA and BOS next. But there's still lot's of work to do in NYC. Once the economy picks up we can expect some international markets to come back that have gotten the axe in the past 2-3 years.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: WA707atMSP
Posted 2012-10-03 07:19:01 and read 10624 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 21):
Nobody is debating that Delta's market share in New York has been, and is, growing, but calling the market "sewn up" for Delta is just not factual.

When have facts ever gotten in the way of peoples' beliefs on ANet?

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 07:38:41 and read 10693 times.

Quoting panamair (Reply 20):
Nobody said it was going to get them past UA, but the gap should narrow to around 4 million+ when all is said and done.

Word on here is that UA and AA also have qualitative advantage in corporate contracts vs. DL in NYC. This continues to shrink as well, but I think DL has to continue stealing a few of these lucrative contracts to really close the gap decisively.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 07:43:15 and read 10851 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 23):
THere was a long debate in another thread about it ....but MIA MIA MIA......DL wants it bad.
Quoting LHCVG (Reply 22):
This was mentioned the other day by someone on here, but the truth is that MIA (both the market and the airport itself) has enough spare capacity for someone else to step up a focus city or minihub anytime they want.

I've never seen any evidence to suggest DL's interested in MIA -- just some ramblings on a.net. ATL can serve most all the non-Florida bound traffic MIA handles, and at a much cheaper cost (MIA's already the costliest airport to operate from, and its costs are going to soar in the upcoming years due to the massive overruns of AA's complex). If DL goes head-to-head with AA and the LatAm carriers, it's going to be a fiscally bloody battle -- and one DL would likely lose.

I do think Caribbean expansion (mainly from ATL) is on the horizon, a la US @ CLT. DL's intent of fully leveraging its wholly-owned Delta Vacations brand, and now offers bulk fares to most Caribbean markets. This is important since the margins of package components are huge, often 40% or more in places like the Riviera Maya and Punta Cana. Somebody dropping a couple thousand dollars per week at the "luxury" resorts is also dropping a large chunk of change into DL's pockets.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 22):
However, the future is most certainly looking bright, as DL's stranglehold has been broken, and we are likely to see additional service and new carriers going forward.

The problem is, DL continues to sit on oodles of capacity at CVG, especially to places rich in local traffic. Service levels at CVG have held strong over the past year -- the most stable they've been since DL entered bankruptcy many years ago. While it's probable further reductions will occur as DL replaces 50-seat regional jets (e.g. a single daily CRJ to GSO), unless DL rescinds capacity elsewhere, I seriously doubt another carrier will challenge it.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 08:01:04 and read 10723 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 27):
If DL goes head-to-head with AA and the LatAm carriers, it's going to be a fiscally bloody battle -- and one DL would likely lose.

For sure. I never said it would be easy, or that DL specifically would go after it, but MIA could handle another focus city.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 27):
The problem is, DL continues to sit on oodles of capacity at CVG, especially to places rich in local traffic. Service levels at CVG have held strong over the past year -- the most stable they've been since DL entered bankruptcy many years ago. While it's probable further reductions will occur as DL replaces 50-seat regional jets (e.g. a single daily CRJ to GSO), unless DL rescinds capacity elsewhere, I seriously doubt another carrier will challenge it.

I agree DL still sits on a lot of O&D there. My take is simply that as time goes on, DL is going to be less willing to fight tooth and nail for every route so it's easier than in the past for another carrier to challenge - should they choose to do so. Two examples I use are SFO and DCA - DL probably makes a decent buck on CVG-DCA, but if US decided to really go after that route, would DL fight to the last against a US push? I don't know if they would go to all lengths to defend that anymore. Likewise, DL will probably keep LAX for all eternity, but if for example UA wanted to start SFO (not saying they will, just as a hypothetical), does DL have enough invested in SFO generally and CVG-SFO in particular to defeat a concerted effort by UA to make a go of that route?

In short, my take is that DL still has advantages and will defend their CVG turf, but with the drawdown and focus elsewhere, there are simply now some limits as to how far they will go to defend it IF someone wants to fight them for some of these less critical (to DL) routes. Not saying they don't dervive substantial value from DCA or SFO for example, but those aren't key cornerstones of their network or of CVG service like LGA, BOS, LAX, MCO are.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: B727FA
Posted 2012-10-03 08:07:56 and read 10686 times.

My guess is that at most CVG could see some limited up-gauging of some "major" routes currently run with LRJ's...but it's profitable at its current status.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-03 08:12:48 and read 10656 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 22):
With AA in shambles, I smell a MIA hub takeover soon

This was mentioned the other day by someone on here, but the truth is that MIA (both the market and the airport itself) has enough spare capacity for someone else to step up a focus city or minihub anytime they want.

The days of legacy airlines opening new hubs are over. Delta would lose a bucketload in MIA competing against AA. AA has all the corporate contracts in MIA.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 08:34:09 and read 10518 times.

Quoting Bobloblaw (Reply 30):
The days of legacy airlines opening new hubs are over. Delta would lose a bucketload in MIA competing against AA. AA has all the corporate contracts in MIA.

I agree. The point of the statement I referenced was that there doesn't have to be a formal takeover of AA's MIA hub - another airline could simply add service to select destinations at will given the size of the market. The problem is, as you say, that AA holds the contracts down there, which makes that a tough proposition for the lucrative business traffic.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-10-03 09:02:24 and read 10404 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 27):
I've never seen any evidence to suggest DL's interested in MIA

I have....unfortunately I cannot share.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 27):
This is important since the margins of package components are huge, often 40% or more in places like the Riviera Maya and Punta Cana.

MLT (DL Vacations) usually negotiates discounts/comissions/net rates 30-40% off the rack...but by they time they pay the retail travel agent etc it is usually closer to a 20% margin for them

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: totesen
Posted 2012-10-03 10:03:14 and read 10156 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 8):
DL's already pursued LAX unsuccessfully (inaugurating & dropping BDL, RDU, GRU, etc.; even classic markets such as MEX were dumped).

The sad part is that Alaska now has the MEX rights, and they will not get them back. But their parthner AM, has nearly 5 daily from MEX. plus GDL, MTY HMO and some other Mexican destinations from LAX.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2012-10-03 10:59:39 and read 9479 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
Total passengers (EWR, JFK, LGA, SWF)

UA:
27,7121885

DL:
21,029,698

B6:
14,235,512

AA:
14,216,525


EWR, JFK, LGA, SWF ranking by cargo ton:

FX:
514,247

UPS:
176,904

AA:
120,415

UA:
103,964

DL:
99,480

LH:
78,950

How about posting O&D numbers after a full year of DL LGA ops? The numbers you posted are about as worthless as comparing Pan Am's share to TWA's. And traffic isn't the full picture since UA handles far more connecting paxs at EWR than DL does at LGA/JFK. Local O&D is the real story and by the time the slot swap is completely baked in, DL and UA are going to be very close in NYC. Certainly that is obvious.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: fxramper
Posted 2012-10-03 11:02:30 and read 9425 times.

what is this grand expansion you speak of at JFK? outside of a new terminal (not even sure what that is) they dump routes like the flavor of the week. NRT, IST, PRG, etc.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-10-03 11:16:18 and read 9282 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 34):
How about posting O&D numbers after a full year of DL LGA ops? The numbers you posted are about as worthless as comparing Pan Am's share to TWA's. And traffic isn't the full picture since UA handles far more connecting paxs at EWR than DL does at LGA/JFK. Local O&D is the real story and by the time the slot swap is completely baked in, DL and UA are going to be very close in NYC. Certainly that is obvious.

How much more narrow does DL have to get to "win New Yok"? By excluding EWR they "Win", by not counting O&D they "Win", by coming second place with 7 million less passengers they "win". Just catching up is not "winning", it's doing better then they were. But I guess that makes for crappy adverstisements:

"DL in New York, we're doing better"..

LOL!...

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-03 11:56:38 and read 8836 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):

No.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 8):
RDU,

Still has flights to LAX.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 8):
even classic markets such as MEX were dumped)

in the 90s.....hope your not using that to compare anything.

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
LAX is going to be an uphill climb because that market is just like New York - huge, but highly fragmented with several other very large, strong players, but unlike New York Delta cannot realistically "buy" their market share as they have done to some extent in New York with the slot swap.

errr Delta was already number 2 in NYC before the slot swap. They have gates and airplanes....and assuming money....then they can build a little more of what they have in LA. (Delta will never have the flight numbers in LA unless they were to buy AS and AA....and I still don't think they would have the room for the flights.)
LAX and NYC wont be apples to apples. If/when they add at LA then you can look for some more major markets, maybe some flights to Asia and thats about it. Anything more than ~75 flights would be shocking.


me personally I think Delta's next step will be more consolidation.  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 11:59:13 and read 8799 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):
in the 90s.....hope your not using that to compare anything.

2005 was in the 1990s?  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-10-03 12:16:37 and read 8604 times.

Everyone in typical a.net fashion expets Delta to expand for the sake of out pleasure.

I think we will see the move to an even leaner airline over time. LGA was just a rare opportunity to get something rare and trade something valuable that they didnt want. No CVG major expansion, no LAX, no MKE, no MIA nothing major. I think the focus is on profits and Delta does not care at all about being the largest except when the advertising helps them create a larger base like in NYC etc I bet we see delta do even more canceling flights for two months or one or two days a week to really maximize profits more than add some new exciting thing for a.net pleasure.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Ezra
Posted 2012-10-03 12:23:36 and read 8531 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):
me personally I think Delta's next step will be more consolidation.  

I agree. They have first-mover status (and a quality job at that) in the m&a game to leverage.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 12:24:08 and read 8543 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 39):
I bet we see delta do even more canceling flights for two months or one or two days a week to really maximize profits more than add some new exciting thing for a.net pleasure.

I haven't seen DL's guidance for this year, but on one of the recent UA investor calls, their guys mentioned an expectation of capacity being "essentially flat, with a slight downward bias", and then later confirmed that there will be slight reductions in FY13. I would say it is a good bet DL will do the same, as you point out.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Prost
Posted 2012-10-03 12:24:47 and read 8553 times.

DL will begin their ticket lobby remodelling in SEA shortly at a cost of ~$18 Million. They've recently opened a new skyclub in Seattle as well. I think its fair to say they will try an grow SEA operations modestly. Perhaps one to two international flights per year for the next few years. Nothing dramatic, no full on hub status, just more international flights, especially if they are within range of the 767.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 12:48:57 and read 8303 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 28):
Two examples I use are SFO and DCA

The problem is, CVG is a small market. US could upgrade its flights to 333 but it won't stimulate traffic -- only launching a price war will. And CVG's too insignificant for that to happen. Among incumbent carriers, I wouldn't forecast any expansion, sans a frequency to PHX on US. New service will come, but with DL's dominance on the local business community + airlines like WN already relying on CVG leakage at nearby airports, it'll most likely be a slow process. I do believe future service reductions are in store for CVG, but I strongly believe it'll be a sizable, strong station into the distant future. One thing to remember is should CVG be de-hubbed by DL, service to places like SFO -- on any airline -- wouldn't exist. SFO is a long, thin flight and there's no comparable city to CVG with nonstop service but lacking a hub.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):
MLT (DL Vacations) usually negotiates discounts/comissions/net rates 30-40% off the rack...but by they time they pay the retail travel agent etc it is usually closer to a 20% margin for them

While my knowledge of this side of the business isn't that strong, I've heard from credible sources that the margins on high-end properties in specific places can be as high as 40% or more. The D.R. in general (Punta Cana, Puerto Plata, etc.) was known for many years for providing high margins to tour operators, although I have no idea if that's still the case. One thing's for certain: DL has slapped the Delta Vacations (and United Vacations, Aeromexico Vacations) brand on a sleezy tour operator throughout Cancun, Punta Cana, etc.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-10-03 13:28:46 and read 7819 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):

I never said it was likely, I am merely making the point that resources are scarce and that when you de-hub, you aren't going to fight to the last dollar for everything anymore. In the unlikely event someone wanted to fight DL, my point is that they wouldn't engage in as deep a price war anymore, and would cede that ground eventually on less critical routes. They have a nice thing going because they get to squat on various routes that aren't big or lucrative enough to entice anyone to fight for them, but if that day does come, you'll see DL drop some routes rather than fight. I agree CVG is a small market, and that's the point - with the hub gone DL is no longer guaranteed to be the one flying everything.

I should add that my choice of these examples wasn't to overemphasize them over others, but because they are both places where a competitor is stronger on the other end (UA and US respectively) than DL is on either end, and neither is a critical "cornerstone" of DL's network. PHX also falls in the same category, with the caveat that it is more of a leisure market.

[Edited 2012-10-03 13:48:13]

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-10-03 13:37:50 and read 7776 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):
With AA in shambles, I smell a MIA hub takeover soon

MIA is weird in the fact that every airline that has had a hub there, namely PA and AA, have made it their own and no one elses. UA tried to push in either a year or 2 before 9/11 or a year or 2 after 9/11, can't remember right now. AA pushed out UA. DL tried to make a move more recently, before the NW merger, and AA pushed them out. Also, MIA was PA's last major hub before they kicked the bucket. Then AA bought it after PA liquidated. The only one that seems to be in the best place to get MIA, IMO, is US, IF that merger actually happens.

Otherwise, here is my list of DL's next places to focus on, in chances of probability.
1. LAX
2. SEA
3. Mexico, with the AM JV
4. South America
And way out in left field,
5. CVG revival
And even way farther out in left field,
6. MEM revival

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: usairways787
Posted 2012-10-03 13:45:56 and read 7677 times.

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
What will be the next strategic push?

DFW      

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-10-03 13:55:42 and read 7578 times.

Quoting usairways787 (Reply 46):

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
What will be the next strategic push?

DFW

I smell a bloodbath coming.     

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: FL787
Posted 2012-10-03 13:58:20 and read 7536 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
One thing to remember is should CVG be de-hubbed by DL, service to places like SFO -- on any airline -- wouldn't exist. SFO is a long, thin flight and there's no comparable city to CVG with nonstop service but lacking a hub.

I disagree. PIT and STL aren't that much different from a de-hubbed CVG and both manage a UA flight to SFO.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-10-03 14:01:27 and read 7520 times.

I actually don't think NYC is anywhere near complete yet. I think in the coming years you will see more mainline out of LGA replacing smaller CRJs. Perhaps EWR-CDG will be added if the economy ever bounces back.

Anybody know how the flights out of LAX on DLX are doing? Perhaps the best way to compete with AA and UA is not on spoke routes to BDL, IND, and PHL but to more short haul routes out of LAX.

SEA is a given but only to a certain extent. I dare bring up DL's secret fascination with merging with AS and having a complete coastal hub to themselves to compete against UA at SFO.

I think DL at MIA is a losing battle. Unless AA gets weak, and I'm talking so weak they are liquidating Pan Am style, then that's when DL can step in and take charge.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: usairways787
Posted 2012-10-03 14:21:10 and read 7309 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 47):
I smell a bloodbath coming.

Haha, indeed you do my friend.

US787

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-10-03 14:30:05 and read 7210 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
While my knowledge of this side of the business isn't that strong, I've heard from credible sources that the margins on high-end properties in specific places can be as high as 40% or more. The D.R. in general (Punta Cana, Puerto Plata, etc.) was known for many years for providing high margins to tour operators, although I have no idea if that's still the case. One thing's for certain: DL has slapped the Delta Vacations (and United Vacations, Aeromexico Vacations) brand on a sleezy tour operator throughout Cancun, Punta Cana, etc.

Yes, it can be as much as 40% (in the DR for example), but remember out of that 40%....they have to give the retail travel agent something, the provider (in the case MLT) has to get something and DL has to get something and higher commissions (such as the 40%) often come with marketing agreements and guaranteed minimum sales. 40% is on the high end....it usually closer to 30% for resorts. Quite regularly I see it as a 20/35 split...where the resorts give 20% during high season and 35 during low season. The theory being that high season has a higher room rate (so you make up for less commission) and it is easier to sell.

Incidentally MLT has the contract for both DL and UA Vacations.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2012-10-03 14:42:45 and read 7038 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 45):
5. CVG revival
And even way farther out in left field,
6. MEM revival

These two cities will see a continued decrease in DL activity. There are no real incentives to increase these ex-hubs.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2012-10-03 14:45:28 and read 6989 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
One thing's for certain: DL has slapped the Delta Vacations (and United Vacations, Aeromexico Vacations) brand on a sleezy tour operator throughout Cancun, Punta Cana, etc.

Since I used to be involved with MLT vacations could you give the name of the sleazy tour operator and some of the details.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-10-03 14:48:10 and read 6929 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 52):

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 45):
5. CVG revival
And even way farther out in left field,
6. MEM revival

These two cities will see a continued decrease in DL activity. There are no real incentives to increase these ex-hubs.

Hence the left field expressions. Maybe if the economy returns to what it was in the 90s, it could happen. It makes me sad to see cities that are large enough to sustain hubs, get dehubbed.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2012-10-03 14:55:51 and read 6938 times.

After buying AS and AA, DL will hub STL, MEM, CVG, and RDU, just in time to open their overseas hub at DXB to compete with EK. Why? Because they are making money

But seriously, I'm sure DL will focus more on SEA, LAX (again,) and Latin America, but I don't see any crazy pushes. DL has a great operation at the moment, no need to drown themselves in debt trying crazy things (as much fun as it would be to see these operations)

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2012-10-03 15:03:04 and read 6819 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 54):
Hence the left field expressions. Maybe if the economy returns to what it was in the 90s, it could happen. It makes me sad to see cities that are large enough to sustain hubs, get dehubbed.

Yeah I get the emoticons, duh...They are obviously not large enough to sustain hubs because they would not be dehubbed if they could. It amazes me how many people are dreamers about hubs that are no longer hubs.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2012-10-03 15:55:08 and read 6382 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 52):
These two cities will see a continued decrease in DL activity. There are no real incentives to increase these ex-hubs.

While I am glad we still have it, why does GSP still have a CVG flight? I believe all CVG flights were cancelled at one point, but we got back one daily CVG trip. Puzzling given the progressive down-sizing of DL's CVG. Again, I'm certainly not complaining, but not sure why.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Alnicocunife
Posted 2012-10-03 16:39:34 and read 6056 times.

Delta will NOT create or add a new hub because they will be working on improving the Delta "Brand"! Everything is going into the Brand. The touch and feel of all stations will be improved. The redo of aircraft, Skyclub's and terminal space all towards the unification of the Delta Brand. That does not mean they will not capitalize on a target of opportunity (AA in MIA?). Utilizing the correct aircraft to fly profitability on every route and creating a common touch and feel directed by marketing/profits.

Money spent wisely developing markets goes a lot further than starting a "bloodbath" trying to increase marketshare on another airlines turf. Those days are gone.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2012-10-03 16:41:17 and read 6065 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 36):
How much more narrow does DL have to get to "win New Yok"? By excluding EWR they "Win", by not counting O&D they "Win", by coming second place with 7 million less passengers they "win". Just catching up is not "winning", it's doing better then they were. But I guess that makes for crappy adverstisements:

"DL in New York, we're doing better"..

LOL!...

No one saying DL is bigger in NYC than CO. Certainly not me. But posting passenger boarding numbers from a time period before Delta's LGA expansion is completely pointless and you know it. And boardings in general aren't terribly important since flow traffic can flow over anywhere and is not indicative of some innate NYC strength. Only the local O&D data is really relevant. If you are going to use traffic, then Delta is about 50 million annual passengers bigger than UA across the system. I think we can both agree that is an irrelevant metric.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: OA412
Posted 2012-10-03 16:47:22 and read 5979 times.

Quoting fxramper (Reply 35):
what is this grand expansion you speak of at JFK? outside of a new terminal (not even sure what that is) they dump routes like the flavor of the week. NRT, IST, PRG, etc.

None of this is factually accurate. For someone who works in the industry, one would think you'd have a better grasp of these things.  
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 59):

  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2012-10-03 18:14:34 and read 5321 times.

Who cares who is "bigger" in NYC? UA, DL, and even B6 can still have a successful, profitable operation. And that is what matters. DL could move into DEN and become the "biggest" carrier overnight but they'd get slaughtered.

Guys... size doesn't matter, it's all about the money!  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 18:44:06 and read 5032 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 53):
Since I used to be involved with MLT vacations could you give the name of the sleazy tour operator and some of the details.

Use to be, just as MLT/NWA WorldVacations use to contract with Best Day Tours. Now they use "Trafictours," which operates under a multitude of names in Mexico & The Caribbean. We upgraded to private transfers and purchased a single activity and were informed that we needed to sit-through a "welcome briefing" in order to retrieve our return pick-up time and voucher redemption instructions. We declined, he was insistent & contracting the office yielded the response it was their job to sell so we ended up sitting through a high-pressured presentation. From reading TA, this is common although not in all cities "Trafictours" operates in. The irony is that obviously it's cheaper to buy these activities elsewhere and we thought we were paying for convenience... LOL...

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-03 18:45:01 and read 5026 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 61):
Guys... size doesn't matter, it's all about the money!

Exactly, but sometimes the more ops u got the more money flowing in  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-03 18:47:09 and read 5031 times.

Quoting Alnicocunife (Reply 58):
Delta will NOT create or add a new hub because they will be working on improving the Delta "Brand"! Everything is going into the Brand. The touch and feel of all stations will be improved.

Brand? Like those gigantic signs popping up all over Atlanta saying "Atlanta's Home Town Airline?" I can see them in NYC now...  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-03 19:13:11 and read 4778 times.

Quoting fxramper (Reply 35):
what is this grand expansion you speak of at JFK? outside of a new terminal (not even sure what that is) they dump routes like the flavor of the week. NRT, IST, PRG, etc.

What are you talking about?????

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-03 19:24:06 and read 4659 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 38):

hm for some reason i thought it was dumped in the late(like 99) 90s.
But ok, I hope your not using something from 2005, before BK and before the merger to judge what Delta is going to do.

I mean, I'm sure they cut a route out of NYC during that year.....and that surely doesn't mean the end of the NYC hubs.  
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 59):
But posting passenger boarding numbers from a time period before Delta's LGA expansion is completely pointless and you know it.

no its not because it makes his point. It will always be something. UA must always be the bigger carrier because it was CO.  
Quoting Prost (Reply 42):

I think Delta is putting large amounts of cash into the places you are going to see some kind of focus.......but i don't think any NYC type growth will happen for a long time.

Quoting Ezra (Reply 40):

IMO they are just waiting to see AMRs hand.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: kubus
Posted 2012-10-03 20:48:56 and read 4056 times.

I'm going to say PIT will see DL expansion. They are already replacing some flights with mainline, be it holiday season but still capacity will increase. The CDG flight, reduced seasonal term but kept without subsidies is back for next season. PIT-LGA has high loads and it did take US faithful away - I did and few other familiar faces.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: avi8
Posted 2012-10-03 20:58:09 and read 4006 times.

People tend to forget that DL has no aircraft on order to increase its fleet size. The 737-900ER's are all replacing 757's. There are currently no aircraft orders pointing into massive growth without cutting other stations.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-03 21:08:18 and read 3958 times.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 68):

not true. 1) the 739s can be flex planes as need. 2) the 717s will likely be capacity growth which could mean moving of other aircraft for growth.

DL is already working with airbus for a plan to increase the life of the Delta A320s if they need them for growth.  

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-10-03 21:20:55 and read 3881 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 59):

No one saying DL is bigger in NYC than CO.

CO doesn't exist anymore.

filler filler.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-10-03 22:34:02 and read 3614 times.

I think we will see Delta focusing on ATL, JFK/LGA, SLC, MSP, and DTW. The focus will be on maximizing profits at those cities. I do think there is plenty to be done at LGA in particular upgauage to more mainline and get more elites and frequent flyers to join them as they find what cities and frequencies they really need. For alot of the others we all know the plan is to reduce RJ-200 flying alot in the future and get lower per seat costs at all the hubs. I think Delta has alot to do they are focusing on profitability and no need to launch some major LAX or MIA pipe dream on here.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: burnsie28
Posted 2012-10-03 23:05:44 and read 3501 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 12):
UA serves 7 million more passengers per year in the NYC market then DL.

EWR is not included in "New York" statistics anymore, unless your UA.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-10-04 03:27:36 and read 3329 times.

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 72):
EWR is not included in "New York" statistics anymore, unless your UA.

DL themselves include EWR in their timetables with JFK and LGA.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2012-10-04 04:52:57 and read 3222 times.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 62):
Use to be, just as MLT/NWA WorldVacations use to contract with Best Day Tours. Now they use "Trafictours," which operates under a multitude of names in Mexico & The Caribbean. We upgraded to private transfers and purchased a single activity and were informed that we needed to sit-through a "welcome briefing" in order to retrieve our return pick-up time and voucher redemption instructions. We declined, he was insistent & contracting the office yielded the response it was their job to sell so we ended up sitting through a high-pressured presentation. From reading TA, this is common although not in all cities "Trafictours" operates in. The irony is that obviously it's cheaper to buy these activities elsewhere and we thought we were paying for convenience... LOL...

Thanks for the excellent reply. Very enlightening

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: micstatic
Posted 2012-10-04 04:54:15 and read 3207 times.

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 72):
EWR is not included in "New York" statistics anymore, unless your UA.

huh? Of course it is.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: NWAESC
Posted 2012-10-04 04:55:04 and read 3214 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 71):
I do think there is plenty to be done at LGA in particular upgauage to more mainline and get more elites and frequent flyers to join them as they find what cities and frequencies they really need.

I agree that there will certainly be more tweaking of LGA before all is said and done. Some places will see upgauges, some downgrades, and some service(s) may be added (or retimed) or dropped altogether.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-04 06:06:36 and read 3151 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
Well given the fact that their earnings have grown significantly, you think they may re-add flights to CVG again?

Implicit in this question is the idea that DL needs to make more money to subsidize losses in CVG. Why would they do so? Because business leaders say they want more service? Do they intend to take joy rides to fill up seats?

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 9):

The problem with LAX is that there is little corporate traffic in that area compared to other cities up the coast.

Shirley, you can't be serious. Employment in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana MSA was almost 2.75 times greater than in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont MSA in 2011 (BLS data). The mix of employment may be different (although I question by how much), but the sheer magnitude of the difference means there's no way that computer programmers at Facebook and HP can generate more corporate traffic at SFO than is generated at LAX. This difference is also reflected in enplaned passenger numbers being approximately 50% greater at LAX than at SFO (both the primary airports in their respective MSAs) in 2011. In fact, the discrepancy is even worse, as SFO has a higher connecting percentage than LAX.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 12):
UA serves 7 million more passengers per year in the NYC market then DL.
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 34):
Local O&D is the real story and by the time the slot swap is completely baked in, DL and UA are going to be very close in NYC.

If one is talking about being dominant in a market, then, yes, market shares of O&D passengers are all that is relevant (of course viewed through the lens of comparative yields and costs). Why would a passenger UA is carrying from BOS to MIA via EWR count as much as an EWR-MIA originating passenger if dominance of the New York local market is the question? Unless airlines are required to report O&D data directly to PANYNJ, only the airlines themselves could give us the answer. The O&D survey data is too time-consuming to parse by operating airline, and I don't have access to MIDT.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 16):
I believe that Delta will build up Boston because of a couple of reasons ie, outstanding facility and Delta's historical strength in Boston

So the AA at SJC strategy?

Quoting B727FA (Reply 29):
My guess is that at most CVG could see some limited up-gauging of some "major" routes currently run with LRJ's...but it's profitable at its current status.

The only people who know if DL is profitable at CVG are DL senior management. I'm sure you're asserting this because of statements DL has made to local media, but I'm not sure why that should carry any weight. The truth is it's profitable by some measures, but it may not be by others. DL certainly hasn't stopped reducing capacity at CVG. If "optimizing" is the name of the game (such a nice way of taking the negative charge out of "downsizing"), then CVG isn't as profitable as the rest of the network. Or DL has more profitable long-term options elsewhere. Or DL management is incompetent. Take your pick.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 39):

Everyone in typical a.net fashion expets Delta to expand for the sake of out pleasure.

I think we will see the move to an even leaner airline over time. LGA was just a rare opportunity to get something rare and trade something valuable that they didnt want. No CVG major expansion, no LAX, no MKE, no MIA nothing major. I think the focus is on profits and Delta does not care at all about being the largest except when the advertising helps them create a larger base like in NYC etc I bet we see delta do even more canceling flights for two months or one or two days a week to really maximize profits more than add some new exciting thing for a.net pleasure.

I agree. DL will expand if conditions warrant, but it very well could get smaller. Why the airline industry has to be compared to a game of chess where one "move" has to be followed by another, is beyond me.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 45):
MIA is weird in the fact that every airline that has had a hub there, namely PA and AA, have made it their own and no one elses. UA tried to push in either a year or 2 before 9/11 or a year or 2 after 9/11, can't remember right now. AA pushed out UA. DL tried to make a move more recently, before the NW merger, and AA pushed them out. Also, MIA was PA's last major hub before they kicked the bucket. Then AA bought it after PA liquidated. The only one that seems to be in the best place to get MIA, IMO, is US, IF that merger actually happens.

MIA is weird because at one time only PA had a hub, then only AA had a hub, then UA tried to make it into a "hub," then UA left, then only AA had a hub again, then DL added a flight to LHR and a couple of flights to TLH, then ended them, then only AA had a hub again? Therefore, MIA can have only one hub airline? If one wants a strict historical interpretation, at one point NA, PA, and BI, then PA and EA had hubs there.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
IMO they are just waiting to see AMRs hand.

Ah, forgive me. The airline industry is like a game of poker, not chess.

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 72):
EWR is not included in "New York" statistics anymore, unless your UA.

As the Brits say, "Bollocks."

Quoting NWAESC (Reply 76):
I agree that there will certainly be more tweaking of LGA before all is said and done. Some places will see upgauges, some downgrades, and some service(s) may be added (or retimed) or dropped altogether.

No, I'm pretty sure DL will leave today's schedule intact and never change it.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-04 06:54:05 and read 3073 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 77):

San Francisco not Los Angeles is the financial center for the west coast. Throw in silicon valley and SFO drives higher yields than LAX, especially for UA.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-04 07:17:16 and read 3017 times.

Quoting Bobloblaw (Reply 78):
San Francisco not Los Angeles is the financial center for the west coast. Throw in silicon valley and SFO drives higher yields than LAX, especially for UA.

The statement being made by the original poster was "that there is little corporate traffic in that area compared to other cities up the coast," which is factually inaccurate. Nothing to do with yields.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: NWAESC
Posted 2012-10-04 07:24:36 and read 2984 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 77):
No, I'm pretty sure DL will leave today's schedule intact and never change it.

Sarcasm duly noted...

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: hereandthere41
Posted 2012-10-04 13:02:57 and read 2707 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 61):

What I find funny is that DL was happy to tout the fact that they were the largest airline until UA/CO came along. Then they changed their tune to saying they didn't need to be bigger, but they wanted to be better. How convenient. How's the Kool-Aid taste these days? And why do all you guys from ATL think that DL can just bulldoze it's way around the US market without any type of response from its competitors? They've never been able to sieze the LA market, they got their lunch handed to them in DFW and they would get slaughtered in MIA. Any smart mgmt team knows their strengths and weaknesses.

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 72):

If you can see NY city from the EWR runway, it's very much a NY region airport. Don't fool yourself, bud. Break out the numbers all you want.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 34):

We'll see how DL does over time with regard to the entire NY/NJ market. It's not just about O&D when you talk about hubbing because that doesn't fill a plane. If that were all that matters, all carriers would still be favoring point to point flights. But everyone has retreated to their hubs where their strengths lie. It's about filling the plane and keeping the yields at a good level.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-04 13:27:02 and read 2629 times.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
We'll see how DL does over time with regard to the entire NY/NJ market. It's not just about O&D when you talk about hubbing because that doesn't fill a plane.

It is indeed most certainly about O&D if one is talking about the dynamics of the NY/NJ market. Taken farther, it could be the profitability of each airlines O&D traffic at NYC airports. Otherwise, one is talking about the profitability of a hub that happens to be in NY.

I don't have access to the data--in fact no one does--that allows us to compare the profitability of the AA, B6, DL, and UA operations in NYC using the same accounting conventions and cost allocations. Scott Kirby stated that US estimates UA's EWR hub to be one of the most profitable hubs in the country and more profitable than any airline's JFK operations. Combining DL's JFK and LGA operations, who knows, but I suspect UA's hub at EWR still generates more net revenues than DL's at JFK and LGA.

But to fixate on the amount of passengers ENPLANED by the hub airlines at EWR, JFK, and LGA serves only to identify which airline has the largest hub. Again, I see no reason why someone flying BOS-EWR-MIA should count as an indicator of UA's NYC market strength.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: panamair
Posted 2012-10-04 13:51:45 and read 2583 times.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
How's the Kool-Aid taste these days?

Probably a helluva lot better than over at UA or at AA, given the financial and/or operational situations over there these days....

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-04 14:26:26 and read 2486 times.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
What I find funny is that DL was happy to tout the fact that they were the largest airline until UA/CO came along. Then they changed their tune to saying they didn't need to be bigger, but they wanted to be better. How convenient.

Well, they couldn't keep saying they were the biggest...duh :P BTW, they don't say "they don't NEED to bigger". That's like saying they're back tracking. The actual wording is "We're not just building a bigger airline, we're building a better one". and "We became the largest airline in the world and decided that that wasn't enough."

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
How's the Kool-Aid taste these days?

Tastes great! Loving it.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: Alitalia744
Posted 2012-10-04 14:34:13 and read 2469 times.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):

What I find funny is that DL was happy to tout the fact that they were the largest airline until UA/CO came along. Then they changed their tune to saying they didn't need to be bigger, but they wanted to be better. How convenient. How's the Kool-Aid taste these days? And why do all you guys from ATL think that DL can just bulldoze it's way around the US market without any type of response from its competitors? They've never been able to sieze the LA market, they got their lunch handed to them in DFW and they would get slaughtered in MIA. Any smart mgmt team knows their strengths and weaknesses.

Not sure if you know much about marketing or advertising for that matter, but you can't make claims that aren't legally supportable, so you change your execution or you take it off the air. The original TVC that DL had on-air did say "became the biggest airline in the world and decided that wasn't enough." Since the new UA is larger the ad had to be changed to drive supportability. It now says "one of the biggest airlines in the world and decided that's not enough."

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2012-10-04 14:44:03 and read 2456 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 59):
No one saying DL is bigger in NYC than CO.

I am. 'Delta is bigger in New York CITY than CO or UA or CO/UA'. Actually, CO is nowhere and certainly not in N Y C.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 73):
DL themselves include EWR in their timetables with JFK and LGA.

Because we fly there. Should we not put that in our timetables?

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
What I find funny is that DL was happy to tout the fact that they were the largest airline until UA/CO came along. Then they changed their tune to saying they didn't need to be bigger

Because they WERE, and now they're NOT. As if Delta was the only company who ever tweaked their words to match reality.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
If you can see NY city from the EWR runway, it's very much a NY region airport. Don't fool yourself, bud. Break out the numbers all you want.

Shades of Palin. If you can see Russia, does that mean you're in Russia? And I see you conveniently added 'region' to the mix. Don't fool US, 'Bud'.

Quoting panamair (Reply 83):
Probably a helluva lot better than over at UA or at AA, given the financial and/or operational situations over there these days....

Fukkin A! 7 posts and he's picked up the lingo....impressive!

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-10-04 17:04:12 and read 2256 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 86):
Because we fly there. Should we not put that in our timetables?

Sorry perhaps I need to further explain, DL does not, nor has ever, listed EWR separately. To find EWR flights in DL schedules you look under "New York". EWR, JFK, LGA are all listed under New York". They differentiate by putting an "E" in front of the scheduled EWR flights, a "J" for JFK and an "L" for LGA. I mentioned this to point out their disingenuous references to being the largest in "New York".

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-10-04 17:58:36 and read 2163 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 86):
'Delta is bigger in New York CITY than CO or UA or CO/UA'. Actually, CO is nowhere and certainly not in N Y C.

NYC = LGA, JFK, EWR. Fact. Source: IATA.

You can discuss the ins and outs of the stateline all you like, but this is an aviation forum and in this industry NYC includes EWR

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: CompensateMe
Posted 2012-10-04 18:21:47 and read 2112 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
hm for some reason i thought it was dumped in the late(like 99) 90s.
But ok, I hope your not using something from 2005, before BK and before the merger to judge what Delta is going to do. I mean, I'm sure they cut a route out of NYC during that year.....and that surely doesn't mean the end of the NYC hubs.

Since you're backpedaling off the context of my original comments, I will reiterate that I'm judging DL's future actions based upon what it has been & is continuing to do. DL's had a slew of failures at LAX, both pre- and post-bankruptcy. It's dedicated SEA as its Western gateway to Asia; SEA itself is not a large local market to Asia (very comparable to DTW) but instead links the Western USA to Asia. LAX is a poor connecting point to that continent, and any direct flights would be rely heavily on local traffic -- local traffic that is already well-served by a mix of premium carriers, carriers with lower cost structures and carriers that successfully rely on bucket shops & consolidators. While I know you dream of a large LAX hub, you should begin dreaming of Kate Upton showing up on your doorstop fully disrobed, because it's more likely to happen.

Continued development of NYC, re-appropriation of the DL network (with the increase in jet size, we'll see shifting trends in traffic flows, especially given that DL isn't looking to add capacity) and continued fleet renewal will eat capital for awhile. DL hasn't conquered NYC by even the exaggerated sense - development takes time.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 51):
Yes, it can be as much as 40% (in the DR for example), but remember out of that 40%....

BTW yellowtail, I didn't mention it earlier but I do appreciate your response. I learned something, which doesn't happen often on here.

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2012-10-04 19:21:42 and read 1992 times.

Quoting hereandthere41 (Reply 81):
What I find funny is that DL was happy to tout the fact that they were the largest airline until UA/CO came along. Then they changed their tune to saying they didn't need to be bigger, but they wanted to be better. How convenient. How's the Kool-Aid taste these days? And why do all you guys from ATL think that DL can just bulldoze it's way around the US market without any type of response from its competitors?

What are you talking about? Why would DL say they're the biggest? Gee I don't know, marketing?

Why do people on here argue about it? I have no idea, there are a lot of weird discussions. And I don't think "that DL can just bulldoze it's way around the US market without any type of response from its competitors." I say how NYC is big enough to handle multiple carriers (and they can all make money) and I get accused of drinking DL Kool-Aid? What?

Chill out dude

Topic: RE: What Will DL Do After NYC?
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-04 21:49:34 and read 1864 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 90):

Don't worry about it. I don't...


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/